Wasn't the lib dem result in Eastleigh down to a massive split in the Tory vote caused by Ukip rather than brilliant campaigning and solid base etc from the lib dems?
I reckon a big factor in the GE and decent way of finding value would be to look where Ukip are decent runners without having a big chance and backing the 2nd fav
I am sure you all have copies of my Ukip hotspots printed for reference that would be a decent starting point
UKIP should help the Lib Dems in quite a few seats I think.
Wasn't the lib dem result in Eastleigh down to a massive split in the Tory vote caused by Ukip rather than brilliant campaigning and solid base etc from the lib dems?
I reckon a big factor in the GE and decent way of finding value would be to look where Ukip are decent runners without having a big chance and backing the 2nd fav
I am sure you all have copies of my Ukip hotspots printed for reference that would be a decent starting point
They did well in the by-election, what happened in the locals?
Ukip in Eastleigh? I don't know the locals results but they were ahead in the opinion poll cited at the conference
Wasn't the lib dem result in Eastleigh down to a massive split in the Tory vote caused by Ukip rather than brilliant campaigning and solid base etc from the lib dems?
I reckon a big factor in the GE and decent way of finding value would be to look where Ukip are decent runners without having a big chance and backing the 2nd fav
I am sure you all have copies of my Ukip hotspots printed for reference that would be a decent starting point
They did well in the by-election, what happened in the locals?
Written to the Home Secretary? Yes. Written to the Communities Secretary? Yes.
I take it back, more power to your elbow. I still maintain, however, that nothing will happen until people start losing their seats and their jobs. That is the real world.
The people of South Yorkshire had a fine opportunity to say they had had enough.
They flunked it totally. Shame on them.
In the areas the abuse took place Ukip won or were v close 2nd ( Rotherham & Rother Valley)
And of course there's a big percentage of people there that would rather no one looked too closely at their 'culture' and they tend to vote labour
Wasn't the lib dem result in Eastleigh down to a massive split in the Tory vote caused by Ukip rather than brilliant campaigning and solid base etc from the lib dems?
I reckon a big factor in the GE and decent way of finding value would be to look where Ukip are decent runners without having a big chance and backing the 2nd fav
I am sure you all have copies of my Ukip hotspots printed for reference that would be a decent starting point
They did well in the by-election, what happened in the locals?
Ukip in Eastleigh? I don't know the locals results but they were ahead in the opinion poll cited at the conference
Liberal Democrat 40 councillors, Conservations 4 councillors, All others 0 councillors. It's the constituency next to mine.
Wasn't the lib dem result in Eastleigh down to a massive split in the Tory vote caused by Ukip rather than brilliant campaigning and solid base etc from the lib dems?
I reckon a big factor in the GE and decent way of finding value would be to look where Ukip are decent runners without having a big chance and backing the 2nd fav
I am sure you all have copies of my Ukip hotspots printed for reference that would be a decent starting point
They did well in the by-election, what happened in the locals?
Ukip in Eastleigh? I don't know the locals results but they were ahead in the opinion poll cited at the conference
Liberal Democrat 40 councillors, Conservations 4 councillors, All others 0 councillors. It's the constituency next to mine.
Wasn't the lib dem result in Eastleigh down to a massive split in the Tory vote caused by Ukip rather than brilliant campaigning and solid base etc from the lib dems?
I reckon a big factor in the GE and decent way of finding value would be to look where Ukip are decent runners without having a big chance and backing the 2nd fav
I am sure you all have copies of my Ukip hotspots printed for reference that would be a decent starting point
They did well in the by-election, what happened in the locals?
The media circus has moved on. Not enough posh people or media types were involved. Hacking was far more important because those posh people got their phone conversations listened to.
Oh, the horror, not mitigated by the massive pay-outs they received.
And the media and certain politicians were only interested when News International were involved. No one seems too bothered that The Mirror were responsible for more hacking than the N O T W.
The answer to this one is pretty simple I think. The LDs know that it's going to be carnage
That's interesting. Maybe you've got a point. Are there any LibDems around on here who can comment? What does Mike himself think? I'm not sure he shares the sense of doom?!
6% is chronic. If you're not right with that theory Thomas then it's almost like they're sleep-walking into oblivion.
N Still, for me, losing over half your seats is by any definition 'carnage'.
Agreed.
Eastleigh was a by election with a huge midterm UKIP vote. I'm wary about extrapolating to the GE.
Remember, Mike used the same 'don't extrapolate' argument from Lord Ashcroft's own polling re Mark Reckless's victory in a by election compared to what may happen in May.
West Midlands Police … disproportionately-high-numbers-pakistani-8439716
FFS can't you take your continual off topic racial and religious rants somewhere else?
Another simply appalling person who views the rape of ONE THOUSAND FOUR HUNDRED children as collateral damage.
Disgusting.
As a once and just maybe future LD voter, the sooner a few participants in child (and adolescent) abuse and cover-uppers are squirming under the glare of publicity in a court room, the better.
Wasn't the lib dem result in Eastleigh down to a massive split in the Tory vote caused by Ukip rather than brilliant campaigning and solid base etc from the lib dems?
I reckon a big factor in the GE and decent way of finding value would be to look where Ukip are decent runners without having a big chance and backing the 2nd fav
I am sure you all have copies of my Ukip hotspots printed for reference that would be a decent starting point
They did well in the by-election, what happened in the locals?
Ukip in Eastleigh? I don't know the locals results but they were ahead in the opinion poll cited at the conference
Liberal Democrat 40 councillors, Conservations 4 councillors, All others 0 councillors. It's the constituency next to mine.
Enough close-ish seconds for UKIP there to build on, but you kind of make my point for me
I'm seriously considering a vote for the Lib Dems here in NE Derbyshire - helping them save their deposit as a Thank you for 5 years of good governance may mean my vote may not be wasted ^_~
Casino said: "I expect either a Conservative minority, with Lib Dem abstentions on confidence and supply matters, or a much weaker time-limited coalition deal with the Lib-Dems to end 2017.
That'd be predicated on a few big constitutional reforms (e.g. PR for local elections sans referendum, in exchange for EU referendum) and a couple of joint budgets."
So if the Tories were to win the most seats, your money would be on Tim Farron (or alternative new leftie LibDem leader) getting into bed in some guise or other with the Tories - the very best of luck with that hypothesis! I say absolutely no chance .... do you fancy a bet, it's been a while since we last crossed swords, nothing too big, maybe a score if you fancy it.
Wasn't the lib dem result in Eastleigh down to a massive split in the Tory vote caused by Ukip rather than brilliant campaigning and solid base etc from the lib dems?
I reckon a big factor in the GE and decent way of finding value would be to look where Ukip are decent runners without having a big chance and backing the 2nd fav
I am sure you all have copies of my Ukip hotspots printed for reference that would be a decent starting point
They did well in the by-election, what happened in the locals?
Ukip in Eastleigh? I don't know the locals results but they were ahead in the opinion poll cited at the conference
Liberal Democrat 40 councillors, Conservations 4 councillors, All others 0 councillors. It's the constituency next to mine.
There are very very few LD seats where they have 90% of the councillor seats. Eastleigh is a freak.
" a senior Liberal Democrat claimed today. The respected figure argued that fewer would make it impossible to join a governing coalition, predicting that the Lib-Dem leader would “fall on his sword”. The unnamed politician went on to praise Health minister Norman Lamb as a potential future leader."
Sounds like an anti-Farronite :-) In all seriousness, isn't TF a 1/2 shot rather than 5/4?
NB list of Lib Dems at shorter than 1/4 to hold their seats:
Tim Farron W. and Lonsdale 1/16
A. Carmichael O. and Shetland 1/14
Norman Lamb Norfolk North 1/8
Don Foster Bath 1/7
Vincent Cable Twickenham 1/5
Bob Russell Colchester 2/9
Norman Baker Lewes 2/9
We can be fairly sure Don Foster won't be returned in Bath.
Written to the Home Secretary? Yes. Written to the Communities Secretary? Yes.
I take it back, more power to your elbow. I still maintain, however, that nothing will happen until people start losing their seats and their jobs. That is the real world.
The people of South Yorkshire had a fine opportunity to say they had had enough.
They flunked it totally. Shame on them.
In the areas the abuse took place Ukip won or were v close 2nd ( Rotherham & Rother Valley)
And of course there's a big percentage of people there that would rather no one looked too closely at their 'culture' and they tend to vote labour
The more ethnic areas of Sheffield, Darnall, Spital Hill etc have colossal Labour votes still. The Rother Valley/Rotherham vote is closish between Labour and UKIP (UKIP ahead in the locals, Labour slightly ahead in the PCC)
West Midlands Police … disproportionately-high-numbers-pakistani-8439716
FFS can't you take your continual off topic racial and religious rants somewhere else?
Another simply appalling person who views the rape of ONE THOUSAND FOUR HUNDRED children as collateral damage.
Disgusting.
One thousand four hundred children in one town. If, in the other 29 towns and cities we know of so far, there were only half as many victims, than the number is well north of 20,000.
It's almost certain that tens of thousands of children have been raped by street grooming gangs, and most of them on an ongoing explotation basis rather than individual incidents. As bad as Saville and Yewtree was, this is far worse.
" a senior Liberal Democrat claimed today. The respected figure argued that fewer would make it impossible to join a governing coalition, predicting that the Lib-Dem leader would “fall on his sword”. The unnamed politician went on to praise Health minister Norman Lamb as a potential future leader."
Sounds like an anti-Farronite :-) In all seriousness, isn't TF a 1/2 shot rather than 5/4?
NB list of Lib Dems at shorter than 1/4 to hold their seats:
Tim Farron W. and Lonsdale 1/16
A. Carmichael O. and Shetland 1/14
Norman Lamb Norfolk North 1/8
Don Foster Bath 1/7
Vincent Cable Twickenham 1/5
Bob Russell Colchester 2/9
Norman Baker Lewes 2/9
We can be fairly sure Don Foster won't be returned in Bath.
He's standing down!
Yes, sorry, I just cut-and-paste three columns there!
" a senior Liberal Democrat claimed today. The respected figure argued that fewer would make it impossible to join a governing coalition, predicting that the Lib-Dem leader would “fall on his sword”. The unnamed politician went on to praise Health minister Norman Lamb as a potential future leader."
Sounds like an anti-Farronite :-) In all seriousness, isn't TF a 1/2 shot rather than 5/4?
NB list of Lib Dems at shorter than 1/4 to hold their seats:
Tim Farron W. and Lonsdale 1/16
A. Carmichael O. and Shetland 1/14
Norman Lamb Norfolk North 1/8
Don Foster Bath 1/7
Vincent Cable Twickenham 1/5
Bob Russell Colchester 2/9
Norman Baker Lewes 2/9
We can be fairly sure Don Foster won't be returned in Bath.
He's standing down!
Conservatives at 6-1... no incumbency....
Mind you £5 is the most I'm prepared to go for on this one.
West Midlands Police … disproportionately-high-numbers-pakistani-8439716
FFS can't you take your continual off topic racial and religious rants somewhere else?
Another simply appalling person who views the rape of ONE THOUSAND FOUR HUNDRED children as collateral damage.
Disgusting.
One thousand four hundred children in one town. If, in the other 29 towns and cities we know of so far, there were only half as many victims, than the number is well north of 20,000.
It's almost certain that tens of thousands of children have been raped by street grooming gangs, and most of them on an ongoing explotation basis rather than individual incidents. As bad as Saville and Yewtree was, this is far worse.
I've explained on here many times before How Nick Clegg, like Gordon Brown and John Major before him, takes the role of the sacrificial goat in the Rite of Atonement. Once people have personally been able to give Nick an undeserved (in my view) personal kicking by voting against his Party in the GE, it will be done with.
The Party will regroup as the Tories did after 1997 and may even benefit from the Tory or Labour midterm come 2017 - we'll see.
I know we LDs are supposed to be in a state of denial about the GE - we're not. I know we're supposed to be panicking about a wipeout - we're not.
" a senior Liberal Democrat claimed today. The respected figure argued that fewer would make it impossible to join a governing coalition, predicting that the Lib-Dem leader would “fall on his sword”. The unnamed politician went on to praise Health minister Norman Lamb as a potential future leader."
Sounds like an anti-Farronite :-) In all seriousness, isn't TF a 1/2 shot rather than 5/4?
NB list of Lib Dems at shorter than 1/4 to hold their seats:
Tim Farron W. and Lonsdale 1/16
A. Carmichael O. and Shetland 1/14
Norman Lamb Norfolk North 1/8
Don Foster Bath 1/7
Vincent Cable Twickenham 1/5
Bob Russell Colchester 2/9
Norman Baker Lewes 2/9
We can be fairly sure Don Foster won't be returned in Bath.
He's standing down!
Yes, sorry, I just cut-and-paste three columns there!
If you are looking for a seat where the Greens could just maybe upset the apple-cart, then Bath is a candidate. With Don Foster retiring, worth noting he squeezed the non-Tory vote dry last time, getting 56.6% of the vote to the Tories' 31.4%. Labour lost another 7.5% of their vote, the Green's 3.6%. UKIP were down on 1.9%.
25% is a monster gap for the Tories to make up. But..... Given the national picture - there's a lot of personal votes for the LibDems to lose if incumbency is all it is cracked up to be.
And of course there's a big percentage of people there that would rather no one looked too closely at their 'culture' and they tend to vote labour
Don;t make excused for them isam, the turnout was under15%. If enough people had been prepared to get out of bed and vote the 'block' vote would have been crushed.
" a senior Liberal Democrat claimed today. The respected figure argued that fewer would make it impossible to join a governing coalition, predicting that the Lib-Dem leader would “fall on his sword”. The unnamed politician went on to praise Health minister Norman Lamb as a potential future leader."
Sounds like an anti-Farronite :-) In all seriousness, isn't TF a 1/2 shot rather than 5/4?
NB list of Lib Dems at shorter than 1/4 to hold their seats:
Tim Farron W. and Lonsdale 1/16
A. Carmichael O. and Shetland 1/14
Norman Lamb Norfolk North 1/8
Don Foster Bath 1/7
Vincent Cable Twickenham 1/5
Bob Russell Colchester 2/9
Norman Baker Lewes 2/9
We can be fairly sure Don Foster won't be returned in Bath.
He's standing down!
Yes, sorry, I just cut-and-paste three columns there!
If you are looking for a seat where the Greens could just maybe upset the apple-cart, then Bath is a candidate. With Don Foster retiring, worth noting he squeezed the non-Tory vote dry last time, getting 56.6% of the vote to the Tories' 31.4%. Labour lost another 7.5% of their vote, the Green's 3.6%. UKIP were down on 1.9%.
25% is a monster gap for the Tories to make up. But..... Given the national picture - there's a lot of personal votes for the LibDems to lose if incumbency is all it is cracked up to be.
Yeah I think its worth a cheeky fiver at 6-1, but a fiver is all I'm having on it.
I see the Rotherham case is now the third listing in the World News of reddit.
The comments by perplexed Americans about Britain doing nothing about paedophilia made me feel ashamed of my country:
I thought this quote was an accurate one:
“In the real world, equal respect for all cultures doesn't translate into a rich mosaic of colorful and proud peoples interacting peacefully while maintaining a delightful diversity of food and craftwork. It translates into closed pockets of oppression, ignorance, and abuse.” ― Ayaan Hirsi Ali
I agree Stodge. The election may well be brutal for the Lib Dems (the recovery I've expected for the last five years doesn't look like materialising!) but - provided they don't go straight back into government - they have an opportunity to regroup in opposition. After a few years of opposition, particularly if the economy slips, people may well look back on this as a golden period and the Lib Dems could well be reassessed as a result. I also think Nick Clegg will be reappraised in due course. A decent man who did the right thing and has deserved better than the derision with which he has been treated.
I see the Rotherham case is now the third listing in the World News of reddit.
The comments by perplexed Americans about Britain doing nothing about paedophilia made me feel ashamed of my country:
I thought this quote was an accurate one:
“In the real world, equal respect for all cultures doesn't translate into a rich mosaic of colorful and proud peoples interacting peacefully while maintaining a delightful diversity of food and craftwork. It translates into closed pockets of oppression, ignorance, and abuse.” ― Ayaan Hirsi Ali
Multiculturalism is the new communism.. sounds wonderful in theory, but human nature will se that it never works
That's why Marxist lecturers try to indoctrinate students that there is no such thing as human nature and common sense
Capitalism works because it is based on basic human/animal instinct, the other two cant work because they rely on erasing it
" a senior Liberal Democrat claimed today. The respected figure argued that fewer would make it impossible to join a governing coalition, predicting that the Lib-Dem leader would “fall on his sword”. The unnamed politician went on to praise Health minister Norman Lamb as a potential future leader."
Sounds like an anti-Farronite :-) In all seriousness, isn't TF a 1/2 shot rather than 5/4?
NB list of Lib Dems at shorter than 1/4 to hold their seats:
Tim Farron W. and Lonsdale 1/16
A. Carmichael O. and Shetland 1/14
Norman Lamb Norfolk North 1/8
Don Foster Bath 1/7
Vincent Cable Twickenham 1/5
Bob Russell Colchester 2/9
Norman Baker Lewes 2/9
We can be fairly sure Don Foster won't be returned in Bath.
He's standing down!
Yes, sorry, I just cut-and-paste three columns there!
If you are looking for a seat where the Greens could just maybe upset the apple-cart, then Bath is a candidate. With Don Foster retiring, worth noting he squeezed the non-Tory vote dry last time, getting 56.6% of the vote to the Tories' 31.4%. Labour lost another 7.5% of their vote, the Green's 3.6%. UKIP were down on 1.9%.
25% is a monster gap for the Tories to make up. But..... Given the national picture - there's a lot of personal votes for the LibDems to lose if incumbency is all it is cracked up to be.
Certainly expect to see the Lib Dem majority cut sharply, but I don't see this as a realistic Conservative prospect.
" a senior Liberal Democrat claimed today. The respected figure argued that fewer would make it impossible to join a governing coalition, predicting that the Lib-Dem leader would “fall on his sword”. The unnamed politician went on to praise Health minister Norman Lamb as a potential future leader."
Sounds like an anti-Farronite :-) In all seriousness, isn't TF a 1/2 shot rather than 5/4?
NB list of Lib Dems at shorter than 1/4 to hold their seats:
Tim Farron W. and Lonsdale 1/16
A. Carmichael O. and Shetland 1/14
Norman Lamb Norfolk North 1/8
Don Foster Bath 1/7
Vincent Cable Twickenham 1/5
Bob Russell Colchester 2/9
Norman Baker Lewes 2/9
We can be fairly sure Don Foster won't be returned in Bath.
He's standing down!
Yes, sorry, I just cut-and-paste three columns there!
If you are looking for a seat where the Greens could just maybe upset the apple-cart, then Bath is a candidate. With Don Foster retiring, worth noting he squeezed the non-Tory vote dry last time, getting 56.6% of the vote to the Tories' 31.4%. Labour lost another 7.5% of their vote, the Green's 3.6%. UKIP were down on 1.9%.
25% is a monster gap for the Tories to make up. But..... Given the national picture - there's a lot of personal votes for the LibDems to lose if incumbency is all it is cracked up to be.
The interesting UK election forecast site gives the Greens 19% of the vote in Bath, which would be staggering if it came to pass, thus reducing the Lib Dem lead to 5 points (34 - 29).
The Tories would probably need to add a few votes to have a good chance of winning - any sign from the local elections that they have a good local campaign team?
" a senior Liberal Democrat claimed today. The respected figure argued that fewer would make it impossible to join a governing coalition, predicting that the Lib-Dem leader would “fall on his sword”. The unnamed politician went on to praise Health minister Norman Lamb as a potential future leader."
Sounds like an anti-Farronite :-) In all seriousness, isn't TF a 1/2 shot rather than 5/4?
NB list of Lib Dems at shorter than 1/4 to hold their seats:
Tim Farron W. and Lonsdale 1/16
A. Carmichael O. and Shetland 1/14
Norman Lamb Norfolk North 1/8
Don Foster Bath 1/7
Vincent Cable Twickenham 1/5
Bob Russell Colchester 2/9
Norman Baker Lewes 2/9
We can be fairly sure Don Foster won't be returned in Bath.
He's standing down!
Yes, sorry, I just cut-and-paste three columns there!
If you are looking for a seat where the Greens could just maybe upset the apple-cart, then Bath is a candidate. With Don Foster retiring, worth noting he squeezed the non-Tory vote dry last time, getting 56.6% of the vote to the Tories' 31.4%. Labour lost another 7.5% of their vote, the Green's 3.6%. UKIP were down on 1.9%.
25% is a monster gap for the Tories to make up. But..... Given the national picture - there's a lot of personal votes for the LibDems to lose if incumbency is all it is cracked up to be.
The interesting UK election forecast site gives the Greens 19% of the vote in Bath, which would be staggering if it came to pass, thus reducing the Lib Dem lead to 5 points (34 - 29).
The Tories would probably need to add a few votes to have a good chance of winning - any sign from the local elections that they have a good local campaign team?
I went to Bath university, 19% for the Greens there doesn't seem outlandish.
Tbh OGH is probably laughing his socks off at anyone suggesting that the Lib Dems will lose Bath which is why this bet is for 500 pence sterling. And he'd probably be right to.
I agree Stodge. The election may well be brutal for the Lib Dems (the recovery I've expected for the last five years doesn't look like materialising!) but - provided they don't go straight back into government - they have an opportunity to regroup in opposition. After a few years of opposition, particularly if the economy slips, people may well look back on this as a golden period and the Lib Dems could well be reassessed as a result. I also think Nick Clegg will be reappraised in due course. A decent man who did the right thing and has deserved better than the derision with which he has been treated.
The electoral arithmetic after the previous election made it difficult for the LDs to do other than they did.
They made mistakes, of course, notably over tuition fees. They were also given the run around by the Tories, for example over AV. But basically they did a decent enough job of supporting the Government through a period when the country could ill afford political instability.
They may not be rewarded for it at this election. The portents are not good. But they don't deserve oblivion, and I will be surprised if that's what they get.
" a senior Liberal Democrat claimed today. The respected figure argued that fewer would make it impossible to join a governing coalition, predicting that the Lib-Dem leader would “fall on his sword”. The unnamed politician went on to praise Health minister Norman Lamb as a potential future leader."
Sounds like an anti-Farronite :-) In all seriousness, isn't TF a 1/2 shot rather than 5/4?
NB list of Lib Dems at shorter than 1/4 to hold their seats:
Tim Farron W. and Lonsdale 1/16
A. Carmichael O. and Shetland 1/14
Norman Lamb Norfolk North 1/8
Don Foster Bath 1/7
Vincent Cable Twickenham 1/5
Bob Russell Colchester 2/9
Norman Baker Lewes 2/9
We can be fairly sure Don Foster won't be returned in Bath.
He's standing down!
Yes, sorry, I just cut-and-paste three columns there!
If you are looking for a seat where the Greens could just maybe upset the apple-cart, then Bath is a candidate. With Don Foster retiring, worth noting he squeezed the non-Tory vote dry last time, getting 56.6% of the vote to the Tories' 31.4%. Labour lost another 7.5% of their vote, the Green's 3.6%. UKIP were down on 1.9%.
25% is a monster gap for the Tories to make up. But..... Given the national picture - there's a lot of personal votes for the LibDems to lose if incumbency is all it is cracked up to be.
The interesting UK election forecast site gives the Greens 19% of the vote in Bath, which would be staggering if it came to pass, thus reducing the Lib Dem lead to 5 points (34 - 29).
The Tories would probably need to add a few votes to have a good chance of winning - any sign from the local elections that they have a good local campaign team?
I can't for the life of me work out why Tim Farron is as short as 8/11 to be next Lib Dem leader. He comes across as something of a "Tim Nice-but-dim". Of the alternatives, Vince is too old, Danny Alexander may have been harmed by his role as George Osborne hatchet man - that leaves Norman Lamb at 8/1 as a stand-out bet.
" a senior Liberal Democrat claimed today. The respected figure argued that fewer would make it impossible to join a governing coalition, predicting that the Lib-Dem leader would “fall on his sword”. The unnamed politician went on to praise Health minister Norman Lamb as a potential future leader."
Sounds like an anti-Farronite :-) In all seriousness, isn't TF a 1/2 shot rather than 5/4?
NB list of Lib Dems at shorter than 1/4 to hold their seats:
Tim Farron W. and Lonsdale 1/16
A. Carmichael O. and Shetland 1/14
Norman Lamb Norfolk North 1/8
Don Foster Bath 1/7
Vincent Cable Twickenham 1/5
Bob Russell Colchester 2/9
Norman Baker Lewes 2/9
We can be fairly sure Don Foster won't be returned in Bath.
He's standing down!
Yes, sorry, I just cut-and-paste three columns there!
If you are looking for a seat where the Greens could just maybe upset the apple-cart, then Bath is a candidate. With Don Foster retiring, worth noting he squeezed the non-Tory vote dry last time, getting 56.6% of the vote to the Tories' 31.4%. Labour lost another 7.5% of their vote, the Green's 3.6%. UKIP were down on 1.9%.
25% is a monster gap for the Tories to make up. But..... Given the national picture - there's a lot of personal votes for the LibDems to lose if incumbency is all it is cracked up to be.
The interesting UK election forecast site gives the Greens 19% of the vote in Bath, which would be staggering if it came to pass, thus reducing the Lib Dem lead to 5 points (34 - 29).
The Tories would probably need to add a few votes to have a good chance of winning - any sign from the local elections that they have a good local campaign team?
I can't for the life of me work out why Tim Farron is as short as 8/11 to be next Lib Dem leader. He comes across as something of a "Tim Nice-but-dim". Of the alternatives, Vince is too old, Danny Alexander may have been harmed by his role as George Osborne hatchet man - that leaves Norman Lamb at 8/1 as a stand-out bet.
I'm wondering... if the Lib Dems may well benefit from incumbency even after their chaps have left the seat. A sort of phantom incumbency, because whoever is the Lib Dem candidate is clarly the local hero who'll stick up for local values...
I haven't expressed that well at all but they just seem to severly outperform particularly in LD/Tory marginals, almost everywhere compared to actual national swing.
The interesting UK election forecast site gives the Greens 19% of the vote in Bath, which would be staggering if it came to pass, thus reducing the Lib Dem lead to 5 points (34 - 29).
The Tories would probably need to add a few votes to have a good chance of winning - any sign from the local elections that they have a good local campaign team?
The last elections were in 2011, which isn't ideal, but for the wards that make up the Westminster constituency of Bath the Lib Dems lead by 24 - 7 with also one independent. I make that 75% of the councillors. Not quite Eastleigh levels of dominance, but looks pretty secure.
The Greens took 7% of the vote across Bath and North-East Somerset in that year's elections.
I can't for the life of me work out why Tim Farron is as short as 8/11 to be next Lib Dem leader. He comes across as something of a "Tim Nice-but-dim". Of the alternatives, Vince is too old, Danny Alexander may have been harmed by his role as George Osborne hatchet man - that leaves Norman Lamb at 8/1 as a stand-out bet.
Danny wont even be an MP IN 98 days time will he?
We're going to find out the answer to that next week.
I can't for the life of me work out why Tim Farron is as short as 8/11 to be next Lib Dem leader. He comes across as something of a "Tim Nice-but-dim". Of the alternatives, Vince is too old, Danny Alexander may have been harmed by his role as George Osborne hatchet man - that leaves Norman Lamb at 8/1 as a stand-out bet.
Norman Lamb is on the Daily Politics' East version a lot, he seems comfortable enough but not a leader of men. Not prime ministerial material, at least, but then again the Lib Dems might not need it...
West Midlands Police … disproportionately-high-numbers-pakistani-8439716
FFS can't you take your continual off topic racial and religious rants somewhere else?
Another simply appalling person who views the rape of ONE THOUSAND FOUR HUNDRED children as collateral damage.
Disgusting.
As a once and just maybe future LD voter, the sooner a few participants in child (and adolescent) abuse and cover-uppers are squirming under the glare of publicity in a court room, the better.
The very sad reality is that we - as a society - simply don't care enough about this sort of crime to put in the resources, effort and patient hard work needed to stamp this out and/or catch the perpetrators. Cultural sensitivity may be one reason; a lack of concern for girls at the bottom of the heap is another and, more generally, a comparative failure to take crimes against women/girls as seriously as other crimes, not least because of the evidential difficulties involved.
Fundamentally, there are not enough people with influence willing to fight the corner of the victims loudly and persistently enough that the authorities realise that they need to take action.
Politicians aren't doing anything for them either. Look at the contrast with how a lot of politicians were willing to be photographed with hacking victims, even inviting them into the room to draft legislation, and their near silence when it comes to the infinitely more serious crime of rape.
Where there is evidence of conspiracy / cover up there should be prosecutions. Such matters are not easy to investigate and you would need independent investigators. There may be disciplinary action you could take but, again, you need to have a robust process to avoid a Shoosmith-style debacle.
What is missing is a Minister clearly and publicly making this a priority, and giving the relevant bodies and officials regular kicks up the arses so that they get on with it. In the absence of that it's all too easy for whatever action is started to be buried under inertia etc.
And what you also need are investigators with thick skins, the instinct of terriers, emotional intelligence to deal with the people involved and with sufficient authority to get past all the obstacles. (Not many of us around - ironic/smiley face!)
With an election imminent, nothing is going to happen.
And the big inquiry - announced by May - if it ever gets off the ground (and I'm beginnning to doubt this) will report back in about a decade.
Miss Cyclefree, a good post, as ever. The evidential difficulties are hardly helped when instances such as one brave victim cleverly collecting her clothing which contained DNA samples of her attackers, only for the police to lose every single garment.
" a senior Liberal Democrat claimed today. The respected figure argued that fewer would make it impossible to join a governing coalition, predicting that the Lib-Dem leader would “fall on his sword”. The unnamed politician went on to praise Health minister Norman Lamb as a potential future leader."
Sounds like an anti-Farronite :-) In all seriousness, isn't TF a 1/2 shot rather than 5/4?
NB list of Lib Dems at shorter than 1/4 to hold their seats:
Tim Farron W. and Lonsdale 1/16
A. Carmichael O. and Shetland 1/14
Norman Lamb Norfolk North 1/8
Don Foster Bath 1/7
Vincent Cable Twickenham 1/5
Bob Russell Colchester 2/9
Norman Baker Lewes 2/9
We can be fairly sure Don Foster won't be returned in Bath.
He's standing down!
Yes, sorry, I just cut-and-paste three columns there!
If you are looking for a seat where the Greens could just maybe upset the apple-cart, then Bath is a candidate. With Don Foster retiring, worth noting he squeezed the non-Tory vote dry last time, getting 56.6% of the vote to the Tories' 31.4%. Labour lost another 7.5% of their vote, the Green's 3.6%. UKIP were down on 1.9%.
25% is a monster gap for the Tories to make up. But..... Given the national picture - there's a lot of personal votes for the LibDems to lose if incumbency is all it is cracked up to be.
Yeah I think its worth a cheeky fiver at 6-1, but a fiver is all I'm having on it.
Sixes is hardly generous, given the mountain to climb. Just engaged in a bit of whatif-ism. Trying to spot where the Greens are going to shake things up if they are polling the same or more than the LibDems. I suspect they are binary - both do well or neither in the seats they fight. Which is why they could be so destructive to the LibDems relying on pools of votes in broadly similar seats. Greens and LibDems combined got 45% of the vote in Brighton Pavillion in 2010.
Miss Cyclefree, a good post, as ever. The evidential difficulties are hardly helped when instances such as one brave victim cleverly collecting her clothing which contained DNA samples of her attackers, only for the police to lose every single garment.
That is a breach of police procedures and should be grounds for disciplinary action.
There is a huge amount of inertia in every organisation when you are trying to uncover wrongdoing. You need an iron fist behind a velvet glove and some authority - legal/Ministerial/whatever - to back you up. All the more so when what you say will or could result in people being disciplined, shamed or losing their jobs. Then you will face quite a lot of active resistance, especially in organizations such as local authorities and the police.
It takes nerves of steel to get past this. Look at how long it took for the Hillsborough families to get to the truth.
''The very sad reality is that we - as a society - simply don't care enough about this sort of crime to put in the resources, effort and patient hard work needed to stamp this out and/or catch the perpetrators. ''
Utter bullsh8t.
If the perps were mainly middle class white men the police would be all over this.
I agree Stodge. The election may well be brutal for the Lib Dems (the recovery I've expected for the last five years doesn't look like materialising!) but - provided they don't go straight back into government - they have an opportunity to regroup in opposition. After a few years of opposition, particularly if the economy slips, people may well look back on this as a golden period and the Lib Dems could well be reassessed as a result. I also think Nick Clegg will be reappraised in due course. A decent man who did the right thing and has deserved better than the derision with which he has been treated.
Yeah fair points. We've had five years of stability when we really needed it and may well be a contrast to the 1974 style antics we may get post May, but, and it's a big but, I'd give the yellows more due if they actually admitted they were utterly wrong about the Euro and however bad it's been it would've been so much worse if we'd all followed Lib Dem desires and joined the rotten thing. However, as far as I know there's no contriteness at all. Maybe I stand to be corrected?
Miss Cyclefree, a good post, as ever. The evidential difficulties are hardly helped when instances such as one brave victim cleverly collecting her clothing which contained DNA samples of her attackers, only for the police to lose every single garment.
That is a breach of police procedures and should be grounds for disciplinary action.
There is a huge amount of inertia in every organisation when you are trying to uncover wrongdoing. You need an iron fist behind a velvet glove and some authority - legal/Ministerial/whatever - to back you up. All the more so when what you say will or could result in people being disciplined, shamed or losing their jobs. Then you will face quite a lot of active resistance, especially in organizations such as local authorities and the police.
It takes nerves of steel to get past this. Look at how long it took for the Hillsborough families to get to the truth.
The inertia right now is from central government, which is currently doing absolutely nothing to bring these cases to trial or to discipline those involved. They were very happy to get to the bottom of the Jimmy Saville situation, but there's been nothing like that response with child grooming.
It's deeply shameful from every political leader. The PM, the Deputy PM, the Leader of the Opposition - what have any of them done? Children are STILL getting raped from the lack of action.
If the locals troubled to elect UKIP MPs and UKIP run councils, I am sure they would be going at this hammer and tongs if only to utterly screw labour.
''The very sad reality is that we - as a society - simply don't care enough about this sort of crime to put in the resources, effort and patient hard work needed to stamp this out and/or catch the perpetrators. ''
Utter bullsh8t.
If the perps were mainly middle class white men the police would be all over this.
Maybe. I think though that we don't really care about the sexual abuse of young abandoned girls, many of them in care. It's a difficult crime to investigate, it needs a lot of resources and it's tough on those doing the investigating.
While there is a problem with Asian grooming gangs, sexual abuse of minors is not limited to such people and there is not much evidence that the police are going after other perpetrators, either.
If the locals troubled to elect UKIP MPs and UKIP run councils, I am sure they would be going at this hammer and tongs if only to utterly screw labour.
I agree Stodge. The election may well be brutal for the Lib Dems (the recovery I've expected for the last five years doesn't look like materialising!) but - provided they don't go straight back into government - they have an opportunity to regroup in opposition. After a few years of opposition, particularly if the economy slips, people may well look back on this as a golden period and the Lib Dems could well be reassessed as a result. I also think Nick Clegg will be reappraised in due course. A decent man who did the right thing and has deserved better than the derision with which he has been treated.
Yeah fair points. We've had five years of stability when we really needed it and may well be a contrast to the 1974 style antics we may get post May, but, and it's a big but, I'd give the yellows more due if they actually admitted they were utterly wrong about the Euro and however bad it's been it would've been so much worse if we'd all followed Lib Dem desires and joined the rotten thing. However, as far as I know there's no contriteness at all. Maybe I stand to be corrected?
...and let's not forget Gordon Brown kept us out of it. History will be kinder to him than voters today are.
I agree Stodge. The election may well be brutal for the Lib Dems (the recovery I've expected for the last five years doesn't look like materialising!) but - provided they don't go straight back into government - they have an opportunity to regroup in opposition. After a few years of opposition, particularly if the economy slips, people may well look back on this as a golden period and the Lib Dems could well be reassessed as a result. I also think Nick Clegg will be reappraised in due course. A decent man who did the right thing and has deserved better than the derision with which he has been treated.
Yeah fair points. We've had five years of stability when we really needed it and may well be a contrast to the 1974 style antics we may get post May, but, and it's a big but, I'd give the yellows more due if they actually admitted they were utterly wrong about the Euro and however bad it's been it would've been so much worse if we'd all followed Lib Dem desires and joined the rotten thing. However, as far as I know there's no contriteness at all. Maybe I stand to be corrected?
...and let's not forget Gordon Brown kept us out of it. History will be kinder to him than voters today are.
Well brother Gordon isn't exactly top my list of all time greats shall we say, but yes, credit where it's due, probably more than anyone else at the time he did. Certainly T Blair would've dragged us in.
YouGov poll from last week shows Sajid Javid least popular choice as best Tory leader.. Boris well clear
pic.twitter.com/kdNiLIrNdm
That's mostly because no-one knows who he is yet. Just wait until Frank Luntz gets stuck into him.
Indeed.
From memory didn't John Major score 3% in a poll amongst the public for Con leader literally about 3 or 4 days before he actually became Con leader and PM.
Whether anything like that has ever happened before or since I don't know - but it does show how quickly things can move when a candidate is not widely known.
YouGov poll from last week shows Sajid Javid least popular choice as best Tory leader.. Boris well clear
pic.twitter.com/kdNiLIrNdm
That's mostly because no-one knows who he is yet. Just wait until Frank Luntz gets stuck into him.
Indeed.
From memory didn't John Major score 3% in a poll amongst the public for Con leader literally about 3 or 4 days before he actually became Con leader and PM.
Whether anything like that has ever happened before or since I don't know - but it does show how quickly things can move when a candidate is not widely known.
(And of course the electorate was Con MPs).
This was a survey of people who said they were going to vote Conservative though, not just the general public. And I thought the YouGov panel would be more informed the average Conservative supporter?
''The very sad reality is that we - as a society - simply don't care enough about this sort of crime to put in the resources, effort and patient hard work needed to stamp this out and/or catch the perpetrators. ''
Utter bullsh8t.
If the perps were mainly middle class white men the police would be all over this.
Maybe. I think though that we don't really care about the sexual abuse of young abandoned girls, many of them in care. It's a difficult crime to investigate, it needs a lot of resources and it's tough on those doing the investigating.
While there is a problem with Asian grooming gangs, sexual abuse of minors is not limited to such people and there is not much evidence that the police are going after other perpetrators, either.
I think the lack of investigation by the police shows contempt for all involved. The antics of the police and police federation over cyclegate and in being complicit in phone hacking (ire not bothering to press investigations when it might embarrass Labour supporting press), all of that puts trust in the police at a significant low. We saw a miserable lack of reaction when the riots exploded a while ago - started by a police shooting. And it does not need any investigation - its already been admitted and exposed by other reports and pointed out by May - to know that the local authorities ignored these offences because they were all 'political correctness gone mad.'
'Fracking whore' becomes the 2015 election put-down of choice. See Guido Fawkes. All parties are in favour except Green. This hostility is driving the rise and rise of the Green Party, which is keeping Conservative in the game by slashing Lib Dem and Labour support. Should UKIP manage to awaken from their corporate sell-out over energy, they'd turn the tables. Here's a UKIP fracking whore trying to sound intelligent today. Fail.
I can't for the life of me work out why Tim Farron is as short as 8/11 to be next Lib Dem leader. He comes across as something of a "Tim Nice-but-dim". Of the alternatives, Vince is too old, Danny Alexander may have been harmed by his role as George Osborne hatchet man - that leaves Norman Lamb at 8/1 as a stand-out bet.
Danny wont even be an MP IN 98 days time will he?
We're going to find out the answer to that next week.
Danny just helped himself to £2m from the Treasury to spend on improvements around Loch Ness in his constituency.
So blatant even the BBC were forced to comment it smelled of pork.
''The very sad reality is that we - as a society - simply don't care enough about this sort of crime to put in the resources, effort and patient hard work needed to stamp this out and/or catch the perpetrators. ''
Utter bullsh8t.
If the perps were mainly middle class white men the police would be all over this.
Maybe. I think though that we don't really care about the sexual abuse of young abandoned girls, many of them in care. It's a difficult crime to investigate, it needs a lot of resources and it's tough on those doing the investigating.
While there is a problem with Asian grooming gangs, sexual abuse of minors is not limited to such people and there is not much evidence that the police are going after other perpetrators, either.
There's room for hope, Cyclefree.
There's never enough people investigating this type of thing but it would be wrong to imagine there are none. The investigations take time though, as you would know better than most. The Hillsborough inquiries got there in the end. I remain hopeful the same will prove true eventually of the current crop of paedophile cases. Why?
Well, there are some good people working on the case. There is some evidence too that the complacency and reticence of the past is on the wane. And I believe the police now have the evidence and the will to prosecute the most serious cases.
i doubt we'll see much action before the GE, unless the police want to make a political issue of it. (They may do, but on the whole I suspect it would be in everybody's best interests if they took a more measured approach.) After May however I think we may see some names named, and a proper inquiry begin its work in earnest.
It may take decades, but if it gets there, it will be worth it.
I can't for the life of me work out why Tim Farron is as short as 8/11 to be next Lib Dem leader. He comes across as something of a "Tim Nice-but-dim". Of the alternatives, Vince is too old, Danny Alexander may have been harmed by his role as George Osborne hatchet man - that leaves Norman Lamb at 8/1 as a stand-out bet.
Danny wont even be an MP IN 98 days time will he?
We're going to find out the answer to that next week.
Danny just helped himself to £2m from the Treasury to spend on improvements around Loch Ness in his constituency.
So blatant even the BBC were forced to comment it smelled of pork.
Another science project to find the Loch Ness monster?
The Lib/Dems will get thumped - badly and deservedly. Then they will NOT continue with coalition even if they could arithmetically. The reason is obvious . If you lose half of your MPs then the remaining half do not queue up to be next. They can be disocunted in the coalition arithmetic.
The clue in this election comes as much else from Scotland. In 2007 the LIb/Dems refused to continue the coalition with Labour after a disaponting election. Salmond stepped in and the rest is history!
I agree Stodge. The election may well be brutal for the Lib Dems (the recovery I've expected for the last five years doesn't look like materialising!) but - provided they don't go straight back into government - they have an opportunity to regroup in opposition. After a few years of opposition, particularly if the economy slips, people may well look back on this as a golden period and the Lib Dems could well be reassessed as a result. I also think Nick Clegg will be reappraised in due course. A decent man who did the right thing and has deserved better than the derision with which he has been treated.
Yeah fair points. We've had five years of stability when we really needed it and may well be a contrast to the 1974 style antics we may get post May, but, and it's a big but, I'd give the yellows more due if they actually admitted they were utterly wrong about the Euro and however bad it's been it would've been so much worse if we'd all followed Lib Dem desires and joined the rotten thing. However, as far as I know there's no contriteness at all. Maybe I stand to be corrected?
...and let's not forget Gordon Brown kept us out of it. History will be kinder to him than voters today are.
Yes, I tend to agree. Of the last three Labour leaders (including the current one) he's easily the best in my view. Just terrible at PR though ...
Miss Cyclefree, a good post, as ever. The evidential difficulties are hardly helped when instances such as one brave victim cleverly collecting her clothing which contained DNA samples of her attackers, only for the police to lose every single garment.
Are you really so naive that you think the plods accidentally lost that evidence ?
''The very sad reality is that we - as a society - simply don't care enough about this sort of crime to put in the resources, effort and patient hard work needed to stamp this out and/or catch the perpetrators. ''
Utter bullsh8t.
If the perps were mainly middle class white men the police would be all over this.
Maybe. I think though that we don't really care about the sexual abuse of young abandoned girls, many of them in care. It's a difficult crime to investigate, it needs a lot of resources and it's tough on those doing the investigating.
While there is a problem with Asian grooming gangs, sexual abuse of minors is not limited to such people and there is not much evidence that the police are going after other perpetrators, either.
There's room for hope, Cyclefree.
There's never enough people investigating this type of thing but it would be wrong to imagine there are none. The investigations take time though, as you would know better than most. The Hillsborough inquiries got there in the end. I remain hopeful the same will prove true eventually of the current crop of paedophile cases. Why?
Well, there are some good people working on the case. There is some evidence too that the complacency and reticence of the past is on the wane. And I believe the police now have the evidence and the will to prosecute the most serious cases.
i doubt we'll see much action before the GE, unless the police want to make a political issue of it. (They may do, but on the whole I suspect it would be in everybody's best interests if they took a more measured approach.) After May however I think we may see some names named, and a proper inquiry begin its work in earnest.
It may take decades, but if it gets there, it will be worth it.
I hope so.
This is the sort of subject which almost cries out for a Victorian reforming campaign.
As well as inquiries/prosecutions, we need - for instance - much much better education of girls about the risks, of young men about how to treat women in a civilized manner. We need to provide space for our children to be children rather than this constant pressure to make them grow up before their time and the rather creepy (to my mind) sexualisation of children that goes on, often by the very same newspapers and magazines that then become semi-hysterical at paedos.
The child rape of tens of thousands of victims in dozens of towns is a local issue.
You need to calm down. Nothing will happen until UKIP start winning elections in these areas. You should take some of your highly impressive energy and passion, stick on a purple rosette and start knocking on doors in these towns
It may be a "local issue" but it's "local" to rather a lot of places, seemingly.
It is worth noting that it was not just white girls who were preyed upon. It was also Sikh girls where the men would pretend to be Sikh. This has been known about for many years.
I have been giving serious thought to volunteering some time to a charity which campaigns against CSE. The other posters here are correct, until the local political parties are replaced little will be done due to the many vested interests. As soon as the media forgets about it the problems will get brushed under the carpet.
'Fracking whore' becomes the 2015 election put-down of choice. See Guido Fawkes. All parties are in favour except Green. This hostility is driving the rise and rise of the Green Party, which is keeping Conservative in the game by slashing Lib Dem and Labour support. Should UKIP manage to awaken from their corporate sell-out over energy, they'd turn the tables. Here's a UKIP fracking whore trying to sound intelligent today. Fail.
Miss Cyclefree, a good post, as ever. The evidential difficulties are hardly helped when instances such as one brave victim cleverly collecting her clothing which contained DNA samples of her attackers, only for the police to lose every single garment.
Are you really so naive that you think the plods accidentally lost that evidence ?
You discipline the officer concerned. If it was a genuine mistake you've sent the right message. If it was done on purpose, you have one annoyed police officer who then has a reason to speak and you use that lever to find out more.
Breaking a conspiracy or a code of silence amongst a professional group is not easy. But it can be done if there's the will and determination. It was done in the Met in the 1970's. But crucially there was someone at the top prepared to do it and the stink from the corruption was too great to ignore.
''The very sad reality is that we - as a society - simply don't care enough about this sort of crime to put in the resources, effort and patient hard work needed to stamp this out and/or catch the perpetrators. ''
Utter bullsh8t.
If the perps were mainly middle class white men the police would be all over this.
Maybe. I think though that we don't really care about the sexual abuse of young abandoned girls, many of them in care. It's a difficult crime to investigate, it needs a lot of resources and it's tough on those doing the investigating.
While there is a problem with Asian grooming gangs, sexual abuse of minors is not limited to such people and there is not much evidence that the police are going after other perpetrators, either.
There's room for hope, Cyclefree.
It may take decades, but if it gets there, it will be worth it.
I hope so.
This is the sort of subject which almost cries out for a Victorian reforming campaign.
zines that then become semi-hysterical at paedos.
One of the most sensible suggestions I have heard is that instead of the proposed Inquiry - virtually stillborn after the abortive appointments of Butler-Sloss and Woolf - a departmental team should be set up to supervise all complaints and investigations into sex abuse.
The Team would not only be able to call its own witnesses but direct investigations and where appropriate ask the police to bring prosecutions in the most serious and obvious cases. There is no reason, for example, why the alleged murder shown on the Elm Guest House snuff film should not be investigated and brought to trial immediately as a one-off. The more complex and graduated cases arising from Rotherham could meanwhile be hived off as a separate inquiry with its own team.
This would help to avoid the police and investigators becoming bogged down in too much detail, whilst a few speedy convictions would improve public confidence that something is actually being done. Lower grade complaints could also be heard by the Team and local action requested, as appropriate, perhaps with lower urgency but greater openness.
There is a danger of the authorities being overwhelmed even where they clearly do not wish to be. Maybe we need something along the lines of the Truth And Reconciliation Committee, but without the forgiveness of crime.
It's an idea, anyway, and one not dissimilar in spirit, I think, to your own suggestion.
Letter received from Hertsmere Council today listing everyone registered to vote at my address.
Form to be returned with names deleted if anyone should be deleted.
Anyone to be added then list names on form and return - but that will NOT register any such people - the individuals will then be sent their own personal form to register.
So Individual Registration is kicking-in, even for people already on the register - ie where people have moved.
No question this is going to lead to more young / lazy / uneducated people dropping off the register - and that can only help the Conservatives.
The Lib/Dems will get thumped - badly and deservedly. Then they will NOT continue with coalition even if they could arithmetically. The reason is obvious . If you lose half of your MPs then the remaining half do not queue up to be next. They can be disocunted in the coalition arithmetic.
The clue in this election comes as much else from Scotland. In 2007 the LIb/Dems refused to continue the coalition with Labour after a disaponting election. Salmond stepped in and the rest is history!
You'll not be surprised I don't agree with much of this but I've always said the party won't go back into Coalition unless both Coalition Parties have received a vote of confidence from the electorate. Whatever happens to the Conservatives is one thing - IF the LDs are reduced by half that won't be any kind of mandate.
There's a risk for the SNP in all this even if they win 30-40 seats. If I were Nicola Sturgeon, I'd push for "everything but independence". The fact remains that once tethered to another Westminster party, the performance of that Government will inevitably impact on the SNP.
I have many political rules - one is "be careful what you wish for".
Letter received from Hertsmere Council today listing everyone registered to vote at my address.
Form to be returned with names deleted if anyone should be deleted.
Anyone to be added then list names on form and return - but that will NOT register any such people - the individuals will then be sent their own personal form to register.
So Individual Registration is kicking-in, even for people already on the register - ie where people have moved.
No question this is going to lead to more young / lazy / uneducated people dropping off the register - and that can only help the Conservatives.
NB. All of the above can also be done online.
For years we've had much higher voter registration than turnout among younger age groups. I doubt turnout will change much (it was DIRE at uni) but obviously registrations will, affecting the last 11 days of campaigning.
I can't for the life of me work out why Tim Farron is as short as 8/11 to be next Lib Dem leader. He comes across as something of a "Tim Nice-but-dim". Of the alternatives, Vince is too old, Danny Alexander may have been harmed by his role as George Osborne hatchet man - that leaves Norman Lamb at 8/1 as a stand-out bet.
Danny wont even be an MP IN 98 days time will he?
We're going to find out the answer to that next week.
Danny just helped himself to £2m from the Treasury to spend on improvements around Loch Ness in his constituency.
So blatant even the BBC were forced to comment it smelled of pork.
As some people at the meetup said - Inv, Nairn, Badenoch SHOULD go SNP but Danny is bringing in the bacon
I think it is quite likely the LDs will fall to about 10% of the vote and 25-30 seats, perhaps losing over half their seats, but it is equally likely they will again decide whether it is Miliband or Cameron who enters No 10 and hold the balance of power either by themselves, or in combination with the SNP, Greens or DUP. That is why Clegg stays
Le Pen would surely be thrilled if Hollande just made it into Round 2. Sarkozy's comeback isn't going well.
The runoff polling shows a huge difference between Le Pen/UMP and Le Pen/PS. The socialists always break for the UMP, but the UMP hand enough votes to Le Pen to make it close, winnable for Le Pen.
Miss Cyclefree, a good post, as ever. The evidential difficulties are hardly helped when instances such as one brave victim cleverly collecting her clothing which contained DNA samples of her attackers, only for the police to lose every single garment.
Are you really so naive that you think the plods accidentally lost that evidence ?
You discipline the officer concerned. If it was a genuine mistake you've sent the right message. If it was done on purpose, you have one annoyed police officer who then has a reason to speak and you use that lever to find out more.
Breaking a conspiracy or a code of silence amongst a professional group is not easy. But it can be done if there's the will and determination. It was done in the Met in the 1970's. But crucially there was someone at the top prepared to do it and the stink from the corruption was too great to ignore.
Or you follow Eliot Ness and get the grooming gangs for something else: protection rackets, smuggling, heck, even not paying income tax.
Comments
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastleigh_Borough_Council_election,_2014
And of course there's a big percentage of people there that would rather no one looked too closely at their 'culture' and they tend to vote labour
It's the constituency next to mine.
Disgusting.
Eastleigh was a by election with a huge midterm UKIP vote. I'm wary about extrapolating to the GE.
Remember, Mike used the same 'don't extrapolate' argument from Lord Ashcroft's own polling re Mark Reckless's victory in a by election compared to what may happen in May.
Casino said:
"I expect either a Conservative minority, with Lib Dem abstentions on confidence and supply matters, or a much weaker time-limited coalition deal with the Lib-Dems to end 2017.
That'd be predicated on a few big constitutional reforms (e.g. PR for local elections sans referendum, in exchange for EU referendum) and a couple of joint budgets."
So if the Tories were to win the most seats, your money would be on Tim Farron (or alternative new leftie LibDem leader) getting into bed in some guise or other with the Tories - the very best of luck with that hypothesis! I say absolutely no chance .... do you fancy a bet, it's been a while since we last crossed swords, nothing too big, maybe a score if you fancy it.
He's standing down!
http://www.rotherham.gov.uk/info/200038/elected_representatives/898/south_yorkshire_police_and_crime_commissioner_by_election_result_30_october_2014
BILLINGS, Alan Labour Party Candidate 15,006
CLARKSON, Jack UK Independence Party (UKIP) 14,228
WALKER, Ian The Conservative Party Candidate 3,936
ALLEN, David English Democrats – “Putting England First!” 2,044
2nd prefs were not counted.
"Socrates, I don't know if you've read this, but I found it enlightening:
http://www.thecommentator.com/article/722/on_street_grooming"
Something that could only have been written by an Asian. Otherwise, it would be called racist.
It's almost certain that tens of thousands of children have been raped by street grooming gangs, and most of them on an ongoing explotation basis rather than individual incidents. As bad as Saville and Yewtree was, this is far worse.
And the silence is deafening.
Mind you £5 is the most I'm prepared to go for on this one.
I've explained on here many times before How Nick Clegg, like Gordon Brown and John Major before him, takes the role of the sacrificial goat in the Rite of Atonement. Once people have personally been able to give Nick an undeserved (in my view) personal kicking by voting against his Party in the GE, it will be done with.
The Party will regroup as the Tories did after 1997 and may even benefit from the Tory or Labour midterm come 2017 - we'll see.
I know we LDs are supposed to be in a state of denial about the GE - we're not. I know we're supposed to be panicking about a wipeout - we're not.
25% is a monster gap for the Tories to make up. But..... Given the national picture - there's a lot of personal votes for the LibDems to lose if incumbency is all it is cracked up to be.
Don;t make excused for them isam, the turnout was under15%. If enough people had been prepared to get out of bed and vote the 'block' vote would have been crushed.
They just don;t care.
The comments by perplexed Americans about Britain doing nothing about paedophilia made me feel ashamed of my country:
I thought this quote was an accurate one:
“In the real world, equal respect for all cultures doesn't translate into a rich mosaic of colorful and proud peoples interacting peacefully while maintaining a delightful diversity of food and craftwork. It translates into closed pockets of oppression, ignorance, and abuse.” ― Ayaan Hirsi Ali
That's why Marxist lecturers try to indoctrinate students that there is no such thing as human nature and common sense
Capitalism works because it is based on basic human/animal instinct, the other two cant work because they rely on erasing it
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31049952
The Tories would probably need to add a few votes to have a good chance of winning - any sign from the local elections that they have a good local campaign team?
Tbh OGH is probably laughing his socks off at anyone suggesting that the Lib Dems will lose Bath which is why this bet is for 500 pence sterling. And he'd probably be right to.
'Cameron's defence cuts...Russians play silly buggers.'
Cameron's vociferous support for sanctions might be nearer the mark.
They made mistakes, of course, notably over tuition fees. They were also given the run around by the Tories, for example over AV. But basically they did a decent enough job of supporting the Government through a period when the country could ill afford political instability.
They may not be rewarded for it at this election. The portents are not good. But they don't deserve oblivion, and I will be surprised if that's what they get.
That should take you to the BANES election results at local level.
Doesn't look as if any Greens are on the Council.
http://democracy.bathnes.gov.uk/mgMemberIndex.aspx?FN=PARTY&VW=LIST&PIC=0
pic.twitter.com/kdNiLIrNdm
I agree Lamb would be preferable.
I haven't expressed that well at all but they just seem to severly outperform particularly in LD/Tory marginals, almost everywhere compared to actual national swing.
The Greens took 7% of the vote across Bath and North-East Somerset in that year's elections.
Fundamentally, there are not enough people with influence willing to fight the corner of the victims loudly and persistently enough that the authorities realise that they need to take action.
Politicians aren't doing anything for them either. Look at the contrast with how a lot of politicians were willing to be photographed with hacking victims, even inviting them into the room to draft legislation, and their near silence when it comes to the infinitely more serious crime of rape.
Where there is evidence of conspiracy / cover up there should be prosecutions. Such matters are not easy to investigate and you would need independent investigators. There may be disciplinary action you could take but, again, you need to have a robust process to avoid a Shoosmith-style debacle.
What is missing is a Minister clearly and publicly making this a priority, and giving the relevant bodies and officials regular kicks up the arses so that they get on with it. In the absence of that it's all too easy for whatever action is started to be buried under inertia etc.
And what you also need are investigators with thick skins, the instinct of terriers, emotional intelligence to deal with the people involved and with sufficient authority to get past all the obstacles. (Not many of us around - ironic/smiley face!)
With an election imminent, nothing is going to happen.
And the big inquiry - announced by May - if it ever gets off the ground (and I'm beginnning to doubt this) will report back in about a decade.
There is a huge amount of inertia in every organisation when you are trying to uncover wrongdoing. You need an iron fist behind a velvet glove and some authority - legal/Ministerial/whatever - to back you up. All the more so when what you say will or could result in people being disciplined, shamed or losing their jobs. Then you will face quite a lot of active resistance, especially in organizations such as local authorities and the police.
It takes nerves of steel to get past this. Look at how long it took for the Hillsborough families to get to the truth.
Utter bullsh8t.
If the perps were mainly middle class white men the police would be all over this.
It's deeply shameful from every political leader. The PM, the Deputy PM, the Leader of the Opposition - what have any of them done? Children are STILL getting raped from the lack of action.
If the locals troubled to elect UKIP MPs and UKIP run councils, I am sure they would be going at this hammer and tongs if only to utterly screw labour.
They don't
While there is a problem with Asian grooming gangs, sexual abuse of minors is not limited to such people and there is not much evidence that the police are going after other perpetrators, either.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/23/local-elections-ukip-opposition-rotherham
The seats in the Rother valley area - UKIP got more votes than Labour.
From memory didn't John Major score 3% in a poll amongst the public for Con leader literally about 3 or 4 days before he actually became Con leader and PM.
Whether anything like that has ever happened before or since I don't know - but it does show how quickly things can move when a candidate is not widely known.
(And of course the electorate was Con MPs).
And it does not need any investigation - its already been admitted and exposed by other reports and pointed out by May - to know that the local authorities ignored these offences because they were all 'political correctness gone mad.'
http://tapnewswire.com/2015/01/ukips-energy-spokesman-conned-by-fracking-junket-to-usa/
So blatant even the BBC were forced to comment it smelled of pork.
There's never enough people investigating this type of thing but it would be wrong to imagine there are none. The investigations take time though, as you would know better than most. The Hillsborough inquiries got there in the end. I remain hopeful the same will prove true eventually of the current crop of paedophile cases. Why?
Well, there are some good people working on the case. There is some evidence too that the complacency and reticence of the past is on the wane. And I believe the police now have the evidence and the will to prosecute the most serious cases.
i doubt we'll see much action before the GE, unless the police want to make a political issue of it. (They may do, but on the whole I suspect it would be in everybody's best interests if they took a more measured approach.) After May however I think we may see some names named, and a proper inquiry begin its work in earnest.
It may take decades, but if it gets there, it will be worth it.
Apparently Dave wants Mumsnet included.
You have put your finger on something important.
The Lib/Dems will get thumped - badly and deservedly. Then they will NOT continue with coalition even if they could arithmetically. The reason is obvious . If you lose half of your MPs then the remaining half do not queue up to be next. They can be disocunted in the coalition arithmetic.
The clue in this election comes as much else from Scotland. In 2007 the LIb/Dems refused to continue the coalition with Labour after a disaponting election. Salmond stepped in and the rest is history!
http://libdems.org.uk/askcameron
This is the sort of subject which almost cries out for a Victorian reforming campaign.
As well as inquiries/prosecutions, we need - for instance - much much better education of girls about the risks, of young men about how to treat women in a civilized manner. We need to provide space for our children to be children rather than this constant pressure to make them grow up before their time and the rather creepy (to my mind) sexualisation of children that goes on, often by the very same newspapers and magazines that then become semi-hysterical at paedos.
I have been giving serious thought to volunteering some time to a charity which campaigns against CSE. The other posters here are correct, until the local political parties are replaced little will be done due to the many vested interests. As soon as the media forgets about it the problems will get brushed under the carpet.
UPDATED: arrested.
Independence Live @liveIndyScot
· 1h 1 hour ago
LIVE STUDIO 8PM: SCOT goes POP, James Kelly renowned blogger http://tvl.ink/pop
https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/560880320858583040
They don't correspond to any recent YouGov poll, or any YouGov average I can think of...
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft · 4m4 minutes ago
So @nick_clegg is grateful to me...#whatevernext. http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/01/29/is-lord-ashcroft-the-reason-nick-clegg-is-still-leading-the-lib-dems/ …
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Breaking a conspiracy or a code of silence amongst a professional group is not easy. But it can be done if there's the will and determination. It was done in the Met in the 1970's. But crucially there was someone at the top prepared to do it and the stink from the corruption was too great to ignore.
The Team would not only be able to call its own witnesses but direct investigations and where appropriate ask the police to bring prosecutions in the most serious and obvious cases. There is no reason, for example, why the alleged murder shown on the Elm Guest House snuff film should not be investigated and brought to trial immediately as a one-off. The more complex and graduated cases arising from Rotherham could meanwhile be hived off as a separate inquiry with its own team.
This would help to avoid the police and investigators becoming bogged down in too much detail, whilst a few speedy convictions would improve public confidence that something is actually being done. Lower grade complaints could also be heard by the Team and local action requested, as appropriate, perhaps with lower urgency but greater openness.
There is a danger of the authorities being overwhelmed even where they clearly do not wish to be. Maybe we need something along the lines of the Truth And Reconciliation Committee, but without the forgiveness of crime.
It's an idea, anyway, and one not dissimilar in spirit, I think, to your own suggestion.
Form to be returned with names deleted if anyone should be deleted.
Anyone to be added then list names on form and return - but that will NOT register any such people - the individuals will then be sent their own personal form to register.
So Individual Registration is kicking-in, even for people already on the register - ie where people have moved.
No question this is going to lead to more young / lazy / uneducated people dropping off the register - and that can only help the Conservatives.
NB. All of the above can also be done online.
There's a risk for the SNP in all this even if they win 30-40 seats. If I were Nicola Sturgeon, I'd push for "everything but independence". The fact remains that once tethered to another Westminster party, the performance of that Government will inevitably impact on the SNP.
I have many political rules - one is "be careful what you wish for".
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017
It would be very interesting to see run-off polls; has the recent (near doubling) of Hollande's vote share fed through to his second round share?
If not, this dramatically increases the likelihood that Le Pen faces Hollande (and therefore that Le Pen becomes Madame President)?
As an aside, this probably significantly reduces the chance of two UMP candidates in the first round.