There can be no doubt that the recent surge in support for the Greens, if sustained, could be seriously bad news for Labour, as would be a recovery to a comfortable double digit level of support for the LibDems, which would also damage the Tories although possibly to a lesser extent. They themselves are most at risk from UKIP retaining its current level of support, let alone increasing it. In evaluating how these factors interact, along with the huge shift from Labour to the SNP in Scotland, I devised and introduced to PBers last month the Putney Upside Down Inverted Nonsense Guide or "PUDING Index" (Copyright). In essence, this operates on the basis that it will be the share of the vote at the May GE received in each case by the Greens, the LibDems, UKIP and the SNP which will largely determine the outcome and therefore the nature of the next Government as much or possibly more so than the simple division of votes between the two major parties which is likely to be close, possibly very close.
Interesting thread, but I think it is wrong to look at this solely in the Labour/Green context. Over the last two years we have seen the steady erosion of Labour support, but not exclusively to the Greens. In Scotland the SNP have benefitted (albeit largely as a result of the Indyref fallout), in parts of England, Ukip have benefitted and in others the Greens. Only Plaid Cymru seem not to have exploited the opportunity. The reason for this haemorrhage in support is clear - the abject failure of the Labour leadership to offer a credible alternative to the current administration. It is fashionable to hang this all on Ed Miliband's manifest inadequacies, but it's really a broader failure of the shadow cabinet. With perhaps three exceptions - none particularly glorious - the shadow cabinet has been absent for pretty much the entire parliament. Yvette Cooper - laughably tipped as a future leader - has failed to land a glove on Theresa May, despite Theresa's core pledge having been missed by a country mile. She is by no means the only shadow cabinet minister to have let Miliband down, but perhaps the most high profile. After 4 1/2 years of opposition Labour appear still not to have the first clue what they stand for or - more importantly - what they would do if they found themselves in power.
And the result has been that the 40%+ of the electorate who indicated that they were inclined to vote Labour two years ago has been whittled down to perhaps 32%. It is a brave man who calls the bottom of that particular market.
Can those erstwhile supporters be won back? Possibly, but the answer for Labour is not specifically to court Green voters - and indeed doing so would involve ceding the centre ground and burning what remains of their fiscal credibility (just as the Conservatives can never out-Ukip Ukip, Labour can never out-Green the Greens). Nor can Labour risk turning their back on the disillusioned working class voters who can cost them seats in the North and Midlands by turning to Ukip, and who would have no truck with shunting her majesty into a council house and paying millionaires a citizen's income.
Too many within Labour are obsessed with reprising the debate of the Blair/Brown era - can Labour win on an overtly social democratic prospectus, or must fiscal pragmatism be the cornerstone of any campaign? The result in 2015 and in the absence of real leadership is a dreadful mess; a party committed to austerity, but whose every instinct is to reject it and whose every policy assumes it won't exist. Cuts are presented as both severe and without consequence; Labour the same but very different. It isn't credible and voters are steadily turning their backs. Labour needs to shape up quickly or its rejection in May will be total. Labour supporters won't flock to the Tories; they'll just register their protest against this Government elsewhere or, more likely, make themselves a cup of tea instead.
Anything remotely positive to vote Labour for? Such poverty of thought and ambition will go a long way to explaining why ed will do so badly in May.
That cuts both ways of course. Why should anyone vote Conservative ? Yes, some people will because of the engendered fear that somehow a Labour Government will unleash plague, pestilence and usher in the four Horsemen of the Apocalypse (the form I'm in, I couldn't back the winner of that race either !)
As I opined the other day, the choice is between an inept Labour administration and a Conservative administration so mired in its own Euro-introspection it'll forget about running the country until the much-awaited EU referendum after which the Tories can schism into obscurity and the rest of us will be left to pick up the pieces.
You can (and some here would) argue against that, but popular perception is that the Coalition (which has increasingly been considered the Conservatives, even though that's inaccurate) has been economically sound.
Anything remotely positive to vote Labour for? Such poverty of thought and ambition will go a long way to explaining why ed will do so badly in May.
That cuts both ways of course. Why should anyone vote Conservative ? Yes, some people will because of the engendered fear that somehow a Labour Government will unleash plague, pestilence and usher in the four Horsemen of the Apocalypse (the form I'm in, I couldn't back the winner of that race either !)
As I opined the other day, the choice is between an inept Labour administration and a Conservative administration so mired in its own Euro-introspection it'll forget about running the country until the much-awaited EU referendum after which the Tories can schism into obscurity and the rest of us will be left to pick up the pieces.
So defecit reduction Growing economy Increased full time jobs Low inflation Increased wages Count for nothing ? Fair enough.
Mr. Roger, isn't that just the same as assuming all UKIP voters will shift to the Conservatives to stop Labour?
I think people are more willing to vote for (as it were) third parties now than before.
One of the reasons for the Green uptick in the polls is IMO some inclined Labour/Green supporters realise that Miliband is a dud and in abandoning a lost cause are prepared to give the Green Party a leg up.
Why, Jack, anyone would think you are suggesting that the consequence of such a leg up is that Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister....
What a preposterous suggestion.
I'm sure Ed dreams of kissing hands with the Queen every night.
Could the Andrew Marr show be any more blatantly left wing? I'm not sure who I dislike more, Stephanie Flanders or Peter Hain.
This is the impartial balanced bbc's idea for the two reviewing the papers with Marr. Three socialists together. 1 slept in the past with socialist blokes, 1 is a socialist Mp and the third used to sleep with anyone preferably socialists...
Are you suggesting that socialism is a sexually transmitted disease?
....and maybe a poster of Cameron's 'waste tzar' Sir Philip Green whose Monegaque (for tax purposes) wife earned £350,000,000 last year on his yacht in Monaco complaining about Labour's 'mansion tax'.
What fun. The Tories could point out the hypocrisy of Ed Miliband in his mansion that was made via tax avoidance.
They could but really it is hard to see why CCHQ would want to get into a pissing match over which millionaire inherited what.
Mr. Roger, isn't that just the same as assuming all UKIP voters will shift to the Conservatives to stop Labour?
I think people are more willing to vote for (as it were) third parties now than before.
One of the reasons for the Green uptick in the polls is IMO some inclined Labour/Green supporters realise that Miliband is a dud and in abandoning a lost cause are prepared to give the Green Party a leg up.
Why, Jack, anyone would think you are suggesting that the consequence of such a leg up is that Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister....
What a preposterous suggestion.
I'm sure Ed dreams of kissing hands with the Queen every night.
So defecit reduction Growing economy Increased full time jobs Low inflation Increased wages Count for nothing ? Fair enough.
Has the deficit been reduced that much ? I thought one of the criticisms of Osborne/Alexander is that they haven't really made that much impression.
Yes, there are more full-time jobs which is welcome but many of them are on low wages and there's an argument that employing people rather than spending capital on technological improvement is holding back the economy as productivity stagnates.
Low inflation - well, that's true everywhere and it's not just about fuel or food prices. My Travelcard (which I need to get to and from work) has persistently risen well above inflation.
Increased wages - debatable for many. Personally, I'm worse off now than I was in 2010 in terms of my salary against inflation.
I think you need to take off the CCHQ-issue blue tinted specs and accept that for a lot of people the "recovery" is illusory at best and downright deceptive at worst. Indeed, for many people, 2010-15 has been about running hard to stand still in terms of working hours and income.
Anything remotely positive to vote Labour for? Such poverty of thought and ambition will go a long way to explaining why ed will do so badly in May.
That cuts both ways of course. Why should anyone vote Conservative ? Yes, some people will because of the engendered fear that somehow a Labour Government will unleash plague, pestilence and usher in the four Horsemen of the Apocalypse (the form I'm in, I couldn't back the winner of that race either !)
As I opined the other day, the choice is between an inept Labour administration and a Conservative administration so mired in its own Euro-introspection it'll forget about running the country until the much-awaited EU referendum after which the Tories can schism into obscurity and the rest of us will be left to pick up the pieces.
So defecit reduction Growing economy Increased full time jobs Low inflation Increased wages Count for nothing ? Fair enough.
Probably not because what counts is each voter's own economic circumstances and not the tractor stats. What will help is low petrol prices and the fall in the euro, since both will leave more spending money in voters' pockets at the end of each week.
Anything remotely positive to vote Labour for? Such poverty of thought and ambition will go a long way to explaining why ed will do so badly in May.
That cuts both ways of course. Why should anyone vote Conservative ? Yes, some people will because of the engendered fear that somehow a Labour Government will unleash plague, pestilence and usher in the four Horsemen of the Apocalypse (the form I'm in, I couldn't back the winner of that race either !)
As I opined the other day, the choice is between an inept Labour administration and a Conservative administration so mired in its own Euro-introspection it'll forget about running the country until the much-awaited EU referendum after which the Tories can schism into obscurity and the rest of us will be left to pick up the pieces.
So defecit reduction Growing economy Increased full time jobs Low inflation Increased wages Count for nothing ? Fair enough.
Probably not because what counts is each voter's own economic circumstances and not the tractor stats. What will help is low petrol prices and the fall in the euro, since both will leave more spending money in voters' pockets at the end of each week.
True, John, but how many voters think petrol prices and the exchange rate are the result of Government policy?
Well, after a well organised heavy barrage and ambush by the MSM and the Tories against UKIP, re Amjad Bashir, the only change is that UKIP will emerge stronger and continue to clean house where necessary.
After the Lab/Lib/Con nutters went slightly barmy on PB last night, most promising the end of UKIP, have they come to their senses and realised that however much UKIP is attacked it only gets stronger.
And after a very strong performance on Marr by Farage, which hardly anyone on PB mentions, UKIP can now look forward to further advances.
Mr Dancer - I agree. In truth the coalition's economic record is rather mixed but the headlines on growth and employment are sufficiently good that they should benefit both coalition parties and provide them with a positive case. Both are getting better at articulating the importance of a stable economy to public funding aspirations.
There's no doubt that the Conservatives are currently benefitting more the Liberal Democrats in this respect and I will confess to having been caught out by this, having long expected the LDs to recover as the election approaches. Little sign of that! My revised view is that the LDs have given us an object lesson in (1) how to be very good coalition partners and (2) how to get the politics of coalition completely wrong. It is remarkable how stable the coalition has been and how united the quad has been. The LDs have solid policy successes they can point to - the increased personal allowance, for example - and have been on the bridge while the government have navigated difficult economic waters, and emerged well from them. But they have largely squandered the credit they might have got by not being sufficiently clear which aspects of the government's programme they own, and which they are having to bear as part of coalition reality, and by increasingly portraying themselves as distant and unhappy with the government they form a key part of. They've also ceded too much of their own identity. They should have been much more vocal about what a separate Lib Dem administration would do.
I hope future coalition partners learn from the Lib Dems experience. I fear the next coalition will be more volatile as future minor partners address the issues the Lib Dems have had at the expense of being good coalition partners.
Anything remotely positive to vote Labour for? Such poverty of thought and ambition will go a long way to explaining why ed will do so badly in May.
That cuts both ways of course. Why should anyone vote Conservative ? Yes, some people will because of the engendered fear that somehow a Labour Government will unleash plague, pestilence and usher in the four Horsemen of the Apocalypse (the form I'm in, I couldn't back the winner of that race either !)
As I opined the other day, the choice is between an inept Labour administration and a Conservative administration so mired in its own Euro-introspection it'll forget about running the country until the much-awaited EU referendum after which the Tories can schism into obscurity and the rest of us will be left to pick up the pieces.
So defecit reduction Growing economy Increased full time jobs Low inflation Increased wages Count for nothing ? Fair enough.
What you mean saddo is "F*** you jack" I am doing all right, who cares about the majority
Well, after a well organised heavy barrage and ambush by the MSM and the Tories against UKIP, re Amjad Bashir, the only change is that UKIP will emerge stronger and continue to clean house where necessary.
After the Lab/Lib/Con nutters went slightly barmy on PB last night, most promising the end of UKIP, have they come to their senses and realised that however much UKIP is attacked it only gets stronger.
And after a very strong performance on Marr by Farage, which hardly anyone on PB mentions, UKIP can now look forward to further advances.
Must have been good from Farage as no one here has mentioned it
Glad he echoed my sentiments re the conservatives and Bashir... Very very surprising they have welcomed him with such open arms considering his links... I reckon they were so desperate to get one up on ukip they'd accept anyone
Maybe cameron will regret yesterday's words and pictures re amjad
Anything remotely positive to vote Labour for? Such poverty of thought and ambition will go a long way to explaining why ed will do so badly in May.
That cuts both ways of course. Why should anyone vote Conservative ? Yes, some people will because of the engendered fear that somehow a Labour Government will unleash plague, pestilence and usher in the four Horsemen of the Apocalypse (the form I'm in, I couldn't back the winner of that race either !)
As I opined the other day, the choice is between an inept Labour administration and a Conservative administration so mired in its own Euro-introspection it'll forget about running the country until the much-awaited EU referendum after which the Tories can schism into obscurity and the rest of us will be left to pick up the pieces.
So defecit reduction Growing economy Increased full time jobs Low inflation Increased wages Count for nothing ? Fair enough.
Probably not because what counts is each voter's own economic circumstances and not the tractor stats. What will help is low petrol prices and the fall in the euro, since both will leave more spending money in voters' pockets at the end of each week.
True, John, but how many voters think petrol prices and the exchange rate are the result of Government policy?
Exactly , and how few will be worrying about Euro's, they are not all planning holidays, more likely trying to survive.
I have to say the "Green surge" hype is already looking ridiculous. We now have a Mosaic study based on social groups which shows not people who will vote Green but people who "could" vote Green (as though voting Green, or indeed for anyone else, can be worked down by such factors).
Rather like the LDs, the Greens will gave their pockets of strength and seats where they could do well but frankly I don't see them winning more than 1-2 seats at the very best which would only put them 1-2 seats behind where I think UKIP will be (albeit with many fewer votes).
I don't even know if the Greens will have a full slate of candidates in England, Wales and Scotland - I imagine (with the exception of Buckingham), the Conservatives, Labour and UKIP will and I expect the LDs will as well. Perhaps some wealthy individual with £633,000 to spare will find someone to stand in every seat to get themselves a place in the tv debates.
I think you will find that the figures the Greens publish for membership are also highly flawed.
Anything remotely positive to vote Labour for? Such poverty of thought and ambition will go a long way to explaining why ed will do so badly in May.
That cuts both ways of course. Why should anyone vote Conservative ? Yes, some people will because of the engendered fear that somehow a Labour Government will unleash plague, pestilence and usher in the four Horsemen of the Apocalypse (the form I'm in, I couldn't back the winner of that race either !)
As I opined the other day, the choice is between an inept Labour administration and a Conservative administration so mired in its own Euro-introspection it'll forget about running the country until the much-awaited EU referendum after which the Tories can schism into obscurity and the rest of us will be left to pick up the pieces.
So defecit reduction Growing economy Increased full time jobs Low inflation Increased wages Count for nothing ? Fair enough.
The government does have a reasonable story to tell, here. I think it will secure them first place in May.
But, Red Liberals don't care about the economy. They care very much that their party "betrayed" them. They want revenge.
Anything remotely positive to vote Labour for? Such poverty of thought and ambition will go a long way to explaining why ed will do so badly in May.
That cuts both ways of course. Why should anyone vote Conservative ? Yes, some people will because of the engendered fear that somehow a Labour Government will unleash plague, pestilence and usher in the four Horsemen of the Apocalypse (the form I'm in, I couldn't back the winner of that race either !)
As I opined the other day, the choice is between an inept Labour administration and a Conservative administration so mired in its own Euro-introspection it'll forget about running the country until the much-awaited EU referendum after which the Tories can schism into obscurity and the rest of us will be left to pick up the pieces.
So defecit reduction Growing economy Increased full time jobs Low inflation Increased wages Count for nothing ? Fair enough.
Probably not because what counts is each voter's own economic circumstances and not the tractor stats. What will help is low petrol prices and the fall in the euro, since both will leave more spending money in voters' pockets at the end of each week.
True, John, but how many voters think petrol prices and the exchange rate are the result of Government policy?
I'm not sure it really matters. It is more a general perception that things are getting better or worse, so maybe (only maybe) the pain was worth it. In 1997, Black/White Wednesday had shown Conservative supporters the pain had not been worth it.
Whatever happened to the government's happiness index?
Peter Endean @EndeanPeter 13m13 minutes ago @MarrShow@UKIP_Voter Ok so we lost one..Cons lost two last year. But UKIP pick themselves up and business as usual. Well done Nigel again
Anything remotely positive to vote Labour for? Such poverty of thought and ambition will go a long way to explaining why ed will do so badly in May.
That cuts both ways of course. Why should anyone vote Conservative ? Yes, some people will because of the engendered fear that somehow a Labour Government will unleash plague, pestilence and usher in the four Horsemen of the Apocalypse (the form I'm in, I couldn't back the winner of that race either !)
As I opined the other day, the choice is between an inept Labour administration and a Conservative administration so mired in its own Euro-introspection it'll forget about running the country until the much-awaited EU referendum after which the Tories can schism into obscurity and the rest of us will be left to pick up the pieces.
So defecit reduction Growing economy Increased full time jobs Low inflation Increased wages Count for nothing ? Fair enough.
What you mean saddo is "F*** you jack" I am doing all right, who cares about the majority
Ryan_UKIP @arsenalUKIPer 25m25 minutes ago Labour finally admit if they win in May, hospital bed numbers would be cut and even some hospitals closed. Showing their true colours now.
Promoting the Greens for the debate has proved a master stroke for Cameron offsetting the UKIP damage with very similar damage to Labour. Ed helps of course because it is his lack of inspiration that tempts people to look for left wing alternatives , whether it is the SNP in Scotland or the Greens elsewhere.
I think Labour will find it hard to bring these disillousioned voters back into the fold, at least until they change their leader.
Murphy really is on "Mission Impossible" in Scotland:
Net doing well: Baby eating posh fop English Tory : -25 Red Socialist who will undo every Tory cut: -58
What polling is that, please? That does surprise me - it's usually Mr [edit] Miliband who takes that position, and Ms Lamont used to do better than that.
Well, after a well organised heavy barrage and ambush by the MSM and the Tories against UKIP, re Amjad Bashir, the only change is that UKIP will emerge stronger and continue to clean house where necessary.
After the Lab/Lib/Con nutters went slightly barmy on PB last night, most promising the end of UKIP, have they come to their senses and realised that however much UKIP is attacked it only gets stronger.
And after a very strong performance on Marr by Farage, which hardly anyone on PB mentions, UKIP can now look forward to further advances.
Must have been good from Farage as no one here has mentioned it
Glad he echoed my sentiments re the conservatives and Bashir... Very very surprising they have welcomed him with such open arms considering his links... I reckon they were so desperate to get one up on ukip they'd accept anyone
Maybe cameron will regret yesterday's words and pictures re amjad
The government does have a reasonable story to tell, here. I think it will secure them first place in May.
But, Red Liberals don't care about the economy. They care very much that their party "betrayed" them. They want revenge.
I'm not that convinced to be honest. We've had plenty of time for the economic "good news" to filter through and while Labour's ratings have fallen, there hasn't been a commensurate rise in Conservative numbers. The one thing favouring the Conservatives is the fragmentation of the anti-Tory vote (perversely it's also helping Labour in other ways) which means that even with 30-32% they are still in with a chance.
Scotland muddies the waters to some degree but the England polls don't make good reading for either the Lib Dems or the Conservatives. A swing of 5-7% (Ashcroft outlier poll notwithstanding) from the Conservatives to Labour is going to do a lot of damage to Tory seat numbers and with no prospect (seemingly) of a Con-SNP deal, it doesn't help Cameron to see Labour's Scottish seats go to the Nationalists.
I'm very wary of relying too much on this analysis. The Green rise has been too recent for us to have a clear idea where in fact they are based.
My hunch is that they will be disproportionately found in safe seats, where statements can be made safely.
The tricky bit here is for voters to figure out whether they're in safe seats or not, despite disinformation to the contrary from the third-, fourth- and fifth- placed parties.
I reckon the confusing five-party landscape will end up being a lot of help to incumbents, who have a very clear claim to be Winning Here.
Anything remotely positive to vote Labour for? Such poverty of thought and ambition will go a long way to explaining why ed will do so badly in May.
That cuts both ways of course. Why should anyone vote Conservative ? Yes, some people will because of the engendered fear that somehow a Labour Government will unleash plague, pestilence and usher in the four Horsemen of the Apocalypse (the form I'm in, I couldn't back the winner of that race either !)
As I opined the other day, the choice is between an inept Labour administration and a Conservative administration so mired in its own Euro-introspection it'll forget about running the country until the much-awaited EU referendum after which the Tories can schism into obscurity and the rest of us will be left to pick up the pieces.
So defecit reduction Growing economy Increased full time jobs Low inflation Increased wages Count for nothing ? Fair enough.
What you mean saddo is "F*** you jack" I am doing all right, who cares about the majority
Er! 55% is not a majority on Planet Eck? While the 45 on your badge refers to the price of Brent crude?
Anything remotely positive to vote Labour for? Such poverty of thought and ambition will go a long way to explaining why ed will do so badly in May.
That cuts both ways of course. Why should anyone vote Conservative ? Yes, some people will because of the engendered fear that somehow a Labour Government will unleash plague, pestilence and usher in the four Horsemen of the Apocalypse (the form I'm in, I couldn't back the winner of that race either !)
As I opined the other day, the choice is between an inept Labour administration and a Conservative administration so mired in its own Euro-introspection it'll forget about running the country until the much-awaited EU referendum after which the Tories can schism into obscurity and the rest of us will be left to pick up the pieces.
So defecit reduction Growing economy Increased full time jobs Low inflation Increased wages Count for nothing ? Fair enough.
Probably not because what counts is each voter's own economic circumstances and not the tractor stats. What will help is low petrol prices and the fall in the euro, since both will leave more spending money in voters' pockets at the end of each week.
True, John, but how many voters think petrol prices and the exchange rate are the result of Government policy?
I'm not sure it really matters. It is more a general perception that things are getting better or worse, so maybe (only maybe) the pain was worth it. In 1997, Black/White Wednesday had shown Conservative supporters the pain had not been worth it.
Whatever happened to the government's happiness index?
I’ve just an email from Unite (of which I was a member when working) about a forthcoming strike/work to rule. It says that as far as NHS workers are concerned: • Wages have fallen by between 12%-15% in real terms since 2010 • One third of NHS workers earn less than £21,000 a year • 40,000 earn less than the ‘living wage’ • Average basic salary for NHS staff in England is around £26,000 a year.
Now that may or may not be true. Or entirely true. But a lot of people a) believe it, and b), especially as as the first point is concerned, feel it. And they have familes and friends to whom they talk. Reductions in tax have been useful but they haven’t been as much as 12-15%
Mr. 1000, true, although he also had a large majority and at the same time UKIP were polling well there, so it was less heroic than it might have seemed.
Well, after a well organised heavy barrage and ambush by the MSM and the Tories against UKIP, re Amjad Bashir, the only change is that UKIP will emerge stronger and continue to clean house where necessary.
After the Lab/Lib/Con nutters went slightly barmy on PB last night, most promising the end of UKIP, have they come to their senses and realised that however much UKIP is attacked it only gets stronger.
And after a very strong performance on Marr by Farage, which hardly anyone on PB mentions, UKIP can now look forward to further advances.
Indeed. I thought, well that will shut them up, and it did.
Anything remotely positive to vote Labour for? Such poverty of thought and ambition will go a long way to explaining why ed will do so badly in May.
That cuts both ways of course. Why should anyone vote Conservative ? Yes, some people will because of the engendered fear that somehow a Labour Government will unleash plague, pestilence and usher in the four Horsemen of the Apocalypse (the form I'm in, I couldn't back the winner of that race either !)
As I opined the other day, the choice is between an inept Labour administration and a Conservative administration so mired in its own Euro-introspection it'll forget about running the country until the much-awaited EU referendum after which the Tories can schism into obscurity and the rest of us will be left to pick up the pieces.
So defecit reduction Growing economy Increased full time jobs Low inflation Increased wages Count for nothing ? Fair enough.
Probably not because what counts is each voter's own economic circumstances and not the tractor stats. What will help is low petrol prices and the fall in the euro, since both will leave more spending money in voters' pockets at the end of each week.
True, John, but how many voters think petrol prices and the exchange rate are the result of Government policy?
I'm not sure it really matters. It is more a general perception that things are getting better or worse, so maybe (only maybe) the pain was worth it. In 1997, Black/White Wednesday had shown Conservative supporters the pain had not been worth it.
Whatever happened to the government's happiness index?
I’ve just an email from Unite (of which I was a member when working) about a forthcoming strike/work to rule. It says that as far as NHS workers are concerned: • Wages have fallen by between 12%-15% in real terms since 2010 • One third of NHS workers earn less than £21,000 a year • 40,000 earn less than the ‘living wage’ • Average basic salary for NHS staff in England is around £26,000 a year.
Now that may or may not be true. Or entirely true. But a lot of people a) believe it, and b), especially as as the first point is concerned, feel it. And they have familes and friends to whom they talk. Reductions in tax have been useful but they haven’t been as much as 12-15%
More 'me, me, me'.
No mention of the patients they're meant to be caring for?
Of course RCS an MEP cannot resign and fight a by-election. It would simply result in the next Kipper on the regional list taking his place.
Fun watching Farage this morning. He really is a pompous man. His face was saying "how dare you ask me that" while his voice was trying to make light of things. UKIP clearly has a problem with some of its "young Turks" who open their mouths and say what they really think.
Well, after a well organised heavy barrage and ambush by the MSM and the Tories against UKIP, re Amjad Bashir, the only change is that UKIP will emerge stronger and continue to clean house where necessary.
After the Lab/Lib/Con nutters went slightly barmy on PB last night, most promising the end of UKIP, have they come to their senses and realised that however much UKIP is attacked it only gets stronger.
And after a very strong performance on Marr by Farage, which hardly anyone on PB mentions, UKIP can now look forward to further advances.
Indeed. I thought, well that will shut them up, and it did.
Caveat Emptor Mr Cameron indeed.
UKIP resemble the Scot nats more by the day. Nothing is bad for UKIP or Nigel, everything is good for them. It's a lesson you should take more notice of.
The way I understand it, the factors affecting the overround are;
How competitive the market is - If noone else is offering odds, then you can go 4/5 either way on an evens shot.
How much is being wagered -eg a Saturday PL football match odds market will attract millions of pounds in bets, with the main bookmakers competing for business. Some of the biggest asian/us bookies offer "juice" as low as 1% (or even 0.5%) to their highest staking punters.
High turnover - If an event is occurring very often (eg, horse races on a saturday) the bookies can afford to offer a lower vig.
Confidence - if you can calculate the exact odds of an event occurring (eg, which team will win the toss) then you can offer odds knowing a punter with inside information can't get an edge. Consequently you can offer a lower vig. If it's a first goalscorer market, anyone with inside info on the teams (and anyone with a twitter account, if the teams/strategy is leaked) potentially has an edge on the bookie. eg, the odds on a striker who starts on the bench being FGS goes down considerably.
So politics odds tend to have a higher overround because;
A) Historically elections haven't been big betting events (the Indyref changed this, and GE2015 looks set to break all records)
B ) Only a few bookmakers offer odds, and those odds are usually compiled by non-specialist traders. Again, lots more bookies are getting involved in the GE, and this will hopefully lead to lower overrounds. I suspect most won't make a profit (although they may not care, if they get new punters from the publicity of offering odds that get printed in the papers)
C) elections don't happen very often.
D) There's a lot of inside polling/on-the-ground information that leave bookies vulnerable to punters having an edge.
As a side note – I suspect the most successful bookmakers in the future will be the ones with the best personalisation models to maximise profit from each customer. We're in the early days of this transition - but I can’t see the classic chalk board with static odds and a set overround available to all customers for whatever stakes bookmaker model of business being around for much longer.
I haven't read mike's book, but probably worth picking up a copy if you want to get your head around this sort of stuff.
Well, after a well organised heavy barrage and ambush by the MSM and the Tories against UKIP, re Amjad Bashir, the only change is that UKIP will emerge stronger and continue to clean house where necessary.
After the Lab/Lib/Con nutters went slightly barmy on PB last night, most promising the end of UKIP, have they come to their senses and realised that however much UKIP is attacked it only gets stronger.
And after a very strong performance on Marr by Farage, which hardly anyone on PB mentions, UKIP can now look forward to further advances.
Indeed. I thought, well that will shut them up, and it did.
Caveat Emptor Mr Cameron indeed.
UKIP resemble the Scot nats more by the day. Nothing is bad for UKIP or Nigel, everything is good for them. It's a lesson you should take more notice of.
I think Fargles already worked that one out. Doubt it will be long until he assails another sacred cow of cultural marxism (PC) that has the twitterati, guardianistas, labourites, libs and wet tories bouncing up and down with outrage and then points at them again and says, See, I told you they are one and the same.
Liblabcon think that fifty years of socially liberal propaganda and "soft" initimidation has made the British people socially liberal. It hasn't, it has made the upper echelons closed to anyone not socially liberal unless they are clever enough to pretend that they are socially liberal and the british people disenfranchised and wary of publically expressing any opinion not socially liberal. Fargle has blown this cartel out of the water.
Anyway, of course UKIP resemble the Scots nats, they are to all intents and purpose the English nats.
Anything remotely positive to vote Labour for? Such poverty of thought and ambition will go a long way to explaining why ed will do so badly in May.
That cuts both ways of course. Why should anyone vote Conservative ? Yes, some people will because of the engendered fear that somehow a Labour Government will unleash plague, pestilence and usher in the four Horsemen of the Apocalypse (the form I'm in, I couldn't back the winner of that race either !)
As I opined the other day, the choice is between an inept Labour administration and a Conservative administration so mired in its own Euro-introspection it'll forget about running the country until the much-awaited EU referendum after which the Tories can schism into obscurity and the rest of us will be left to pick up the pieces.
So defecit reduction Growing economy Increased full time jobs Low inflation Increased wages Count for nothing ? Fair enough.
What you mean saddo is "F*** you jack" I am doing all right, who cares about the majority
Er! 55% is not a majority on Planet Eck? While the 45 on your badge refers to the price of Brent crude?
For those wanting a bit more data for their Scottish constituency betting.
'Top Scottish Labour official lays bare "pathetic" state of engagement with voters
SCOTTISH Labour bosses have drawn up a league table naming and shaming moribund local parties that are failing to contact enough voters ahead of the Westminster election. A leaked general election strategy paper shows that activists in fourteen seats, including key SNP targets in Glasgow and Lanarkshire, have been in touch with fewer than 100 voters.'
Most active CLPs – Edinburgh East, Midlothian, Kilmarnock and Loudon
Least active CLPs – Glasgow North West; Glasgow South; Glasgow South West; Inverclyde; Central Ayrshire, Paisley and Renfrewshire South; Paisley and Renfrewshire North; Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East; Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill; East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow; and Lanark and Hamilton East.
Anything remotely positive to vote Labour for? Such poverty of thought and ambition will go a long way to explaining why ed will do so badly in May.
That cuts both ways of course. Why should anyone vote Conservative ? Yes, some people will because of the engendered fear that somehow a Labour Government will unleash plague, pestilence and usher in the four Horsemen of the Apocalypse (the form I'm in, I couldn't back the winner of that race either !)
As I opined the other day, the choice is between an inept Labour administration and a Conservative administration so mired in its own Euro-introspection it'll forget about running the country until the much-awaited EU referendum after which the Tories can schism into obscurity and the rest of us will be left to pick up the pieces.
So defecit reduction Growing economy Increased full time jobs Low inflation Increased wages Count for nothing ? Fair enough.
What you mean saddo is "F*** you jack" I am doing all right, who cares about the majority
Er! 55% is not a majority on Planet Eck? While the 45 on your badge refers to the price of Brent crude?
In the real world, no one has ever heard of this MEP, never mind care about his defection.
Though the Game Of Thrones imitation that is internal UKIP politics continues.
And will do unfortunately for as long as Farage is in charge. His dominance of the party is the root cause of the problems they are having at the moment and they will not be able to get things like candidate selection and accountability sorted out properly until he steps down.
On the other hand there is an argument to be made that UKIP have been able to be ruthless with miscreants because he runs it in such a dictatorial manner whilst other parties do not seem to be able or willing to rid themselves of embarrassments so easily.
Why are people worried about the greens taking support from labour? It's the lib dems who have more to fear, I think. The last thing many of their supporters wanted was for them ever to be in government. They are attracted by pie in the sky idealism that will never come to pass.
I'd have thought the greens would suit red libs down to the ground
Ahem, those castigating Bashir's volte-face tended to skip over Carswell's similar about-turn.
I'm not taken with turncoat behaviour generally, to be honest. But it's not legitimate to criticise only one of them.
I, on the other hand, believe we should have far more crossing the floor. Parties are not sacred cows and no one owes their allegiance to a party if the party leadership fails to behave honestly with membership and the electorate (which no party frankly ever does). Assuming there was nothing in the allegations against Bashir then he is absolutely correct to jump ship if he feels the party is no longer going in the direction he believes it should.
My only problem with MEPs is that people did not vote for them, they voted for the party and so in an ideal road it would be nice to see MEPs having the courage of their convictions and standing down rather than clinging to power. But in the end that is an argument for changing the electoral system not for attacking politicians who change parties.
In the real world, no one has ever heard of this MEP, never mind care about his defection.
Though the Game Of Thrones imitation that is internal UKIP politics continues.
And will do unfortunately for as long as Farage is in charge. His dominance of the party is the root cause of the problems they are having at the moment and they will not be able to get things like candidate selection and accountability sorted out properly until he steps down.
On the other hand there is an argument to be made that UKIP have been able to be ruthless with miscreants because he runs it in such a dictatorial manner whilst other parties do not seem to be able or willing to rid themselves of embarrassments so easily.
Farage is UKIP's problem in the way that Lennon/ McCartney's songwriting was a problem for The Beatles. Ridiculous
Well, after a well organised heavy barrage and ambush by the MSM and the Tories against UKIP, re Amjad Bashir, the only change is that UKIP will emerge stronger and continue to clean house where necessary.
After the Lab/Lib/Con nutters went slightly barmy on PB last night, most promising the end of UKIP, have they come to their senses and realised that however much UKIP is attacked it only gets stronger.
And after a very strong performance on Marr by Farage, which hardly anyone on PB mentions, UKIP can now look forward to further advances.
Indeed. I thought, well that will shut them up, and it did.
Caveat Emptor Mr Cameron indeed.
UKIP resemble the Scot nats more by the day. Nothing is bad for UKIP or Nigel, everything is good for them. It's a lesson you should take more notice of.
The facts are though that the SNP and ukip HAVE improved their positions massively in the last few years... So of course their critics get annoyed by their supporters reporting the good news that keeps coming
In the real world, no one has ever heard of this MEP, never mind care about his defection.
Though the Game Of Thrones imitation that is internal UKIP politics continues.
And will do unfortunately for as long as Farage is in charge. His dominance of the party is the root cause of the problems they are having at the moment and they will not be able to get things like candidate selection and accountability sorted out properly until he steps down.
On the other hand there is an argument to be made that UKIP have been able to be ruthless with miscreants because he runs it in such a dictatorial manner whilst other parties do not seem to be able or willing to rid themselves of embarrassments so easily.
While I respect you're views with respect to Farage, and certainly think there are capable candidates to replace him, I think Farage is a very good performer as demonstrated on Marr this morning. I'm not saying that Ukip's rise wouldn't have happened without him as leader, but he's certainly done a good job as a figure head.
In the real world, no one has ever heard of this MEP, never mind care about his defection.
Though the Game Of Thrones imitation that is internal UKIP politics continues.
And will do unfortunately for as long as Farage is in charge. His dominance of the party is the root cause of the problems they are having at the moment and they will not be able to get things like candidate selection and accountability sorted out properly until he steps down.
On the other hand there is an argument to be made that UKIP have been able to be ruthless with miscreants because he runs it in such a dictatorial manner whilst other parties do not seem to be able or willing to rid themselves of embarrassments so easily.
Farage is UKIP's problem in the way that Lennon/ McCartney's songwriting was a problem for The Beatles. Ridiculous
Worth remembering that brilliant as they were (and I would suggest peerless as a musical partnership) it was the strained relationship between Lennon and McCartney that eventually brought about the breakup of the Beatles.
So perhaps not the best analogy you could have used.
In the real world, no one has ever heard of this MEP, never mind care about his defection.
Though the Game Of Thrones imitation that is internal UKIP politics continues.
And will do unfortunately for as long as Farage is in charge. His dominance of the party is the root cause of the problems they are having at the moment and they will not be able to get things like candidate selection and accountability sorted out properly until he steps down.
On the other hand there is an argument to be made that UKIP have been able to be ruthless with miscreants because he runs it in such a dictatorial manner whilst other parties do not seem to be able or willing to rid themselves of embarrassments so easily.
While I respect you're views with respect to Farage, and certainly think there are capable candidates to replace him, I think Farage is a very good performer as demonstrated on Marr this morning. I'm not saying that Ukip's rise wouldn't have happened without him as leader, but he's certainly done a good job as a figure head.
I have a huge amount of time for Farage and think that he is owed a huge debt of gratitude for having brought us to this point as far as both the rise of UKIP and the move towards leaving the EU is concerned. He was very much the man for the job until recently.
But I simply don't believe that his style of leadership or his abilities in the day to day running of a party are sufficient to maintain a mainstream party fighting for seats in Parliament. I think he is now the wrong man for the job.
Incidently although he is by far my favourite political thinker at the moment, I also don't necessarily think Carswell would be right as party leader. I see him more in the Keith Joseph mould as a policy maker. Perhaps the time is right for UKIP to have their own Thatcher from amongst their female candidates.
Well, after a well organised heavy barrage and ambush by the MSM and the Tories against UKIP, re Amjad Bashir, the only change is that UKIP will emerge stronger and continue to clean house where necessary.
After the Lab/Lib/Con nutters went slightly barmy on PB last night, most promising the end of UKIP, have they come to their senses and realised that however much UKIP is attacked it only gets stronger.
And after a very strong performance on Marr by Farage, which hardly anyone on PB mentions, UKIP can now look forward to further advances.
Indeed. I thought, well that will shut them up, and it did.
Caveat Emptor Mr Cameron indeed.
UKIP resemble the Scot nats more by the day. Nothing is bad for UKIP or Nigel, everything is good for them. It's a lesson you should take more notice of.
The facts are though that the SNP and ukip HAVE improved their positions massively in the last few years... So of course their critics get annoyed by their supporters reporting the good news that keeps coming
Nothing you have said contradicts my point. Nothing in the eyes of the faithful is ever bad, everything works to their advantage, it's like a cult for some supporters.
In the real world, no one has ever heard of this MEP, never mind care about his defection.
Though the Game Of Thrones imitation that is internal UKIP politics continues.
And will do unfortunately for as long as Farage is in charge. His dominance of the party is the root cause of the problems they are having at the moment and they will not be able to get things like candidate selection and accountability sorted out properly until he steps down. ....
Very difficult to do so in a two-party system, with a legislature split very obviously between Us and Them. When the Commons was rebuilt after the WWII bombing it was suggested it be redesigned on a semi-circular basis, but Churchill in particular wouldn’t hear of it.
Much easier to move a few seats to the right or left that to “cross the floor”
Although of course Churchill himself did so at least twice.
Anything remotely positive to vote Labour for? Such poverty of thought and ambition will go a long way to explaining why ed will do so badly in May.
That cuts both ways of course. Why should anyone vote Conservative ? Yes, some people will because of the engendered fear that somehow a Labour Government will unleash plague, pestilence and usher in the four Horsemen of the Apocalypse (the form I'm in, I couldn't back the winner of that race either !)
As I opined the other day, the choice is between an inept Labour administration and a Conservative administration so mired in its own Euro-introspection it'll forget about running the country until the much-awaited EU referendum after which the Tories can schism into obscurity and the rest of us will be left to pick up the pieces.
So defecit reduction Growing economy Increased full time jobs Low inflation Increased wages Count for nothing ? Fair enough.
What you mean saddo is "F*** you jack" I am doing all right, who cares about the majority
In the real world, no one has ever heard of this MEP, never mind care about his defection.
Though the Game Of Thrones imitation that is internal UKIP politics continues.
And will do unfortunately for as long as Farage is in charge. His dominance of the party is the root cause of the problems they are having at the moment and they will not be able to get things like candidate selection and accountability sorted out properly until he steps down.
On the other hand there is an argument to be made that UKIP have been able to be ruthless with miscreants because he runs it in such a dictatorial manner whilst other parties do not seem to be able or willing to rid themselves of embarrassments so easily.
While I respect you're views with respect to Farage, and certainly think there are capable candidates to replace him, I think Farage is a very good performer as demonstrated on Marr this morning. I'm not saying that Ukip's rise wouldn't have happened without him as leader, but he's certainly done a good job as a figure head.
I have a huge amount of time for Farage and think that he is owed a huge debt of gratitude for having brought us to this point as far as both the rise of UKIP and the move towards leaving the EU is concerned. He was very much the man for the job until recently.
But I simply don't believe that his style of leadership or his abilities in the day to day running of a party are sufficient to maintain a mainstream party fighting for seats in Parliament. I think he is now the wrong man for the job.
Incidently although he is by far my favourite political thinker at the moment, I also don't necessarily think Carswell would be right as party leader. I see him more in the Keith Joseph mould as a policy maker. Perhaps the time is right for UKIP to have their own Thatcher from amongst their female candidates.
Thatcher was brought down by envious little men. So perhaps not the best advice, considering the source.
Anything remotely positive to vote Labour for? Such poverty of thought and ambition will go a long way to explaining why ed will do so badly in May.
That cuts both ways of course. Why should anyone vote Conservative ? Yes, some people will because of the engendered fear that somehow a Labour Government will unleash plague, pestilence and usher in the four Horsemen of the Apocalypse (the form I'm in, I couldn't back the winner of that race either !)
As I opined the other day, the choice is between an inept Labour administration and a Conservative administration so mired in its own Euro-introspection it'll forget about running the country until the much-awaited EU referendum after which the Tories can schism into obscurity and the rest of us will be left to pick up the pieces.
So defecit reduction Growing economy Increased full time jobs Low inflation Increased wages Count for nothing ? Fair enough.
What you mean saddo is "F*** you jack" I am doing all right, who cares about the majority
Er! 55% is not a majority on Planet Eck? While the 45 on your badge refers to the price of Brent crude?
What are you wittering about you demented half wit , we are talking about the UK economy here not labour knuckle draggers living in the past and trying to pretend they won something by partnering the Tories. We will see how many of the 55% support your heroes soon enough.
Mr. 1000, true, although he also had a large majority and at the same time UKIP were polling well there, so it was less heroic than it might have seemed.
Can I point out it was the Conservatives that had the large majority in Clacton in 2010 ie the party that Carswell fought the byelection against.
In the real world, no one has ever heard of this MEP, never mind care about his defection.
Though the Game Of Thrones imitation that is internal UKIP politics continues.
And will do unfortunately for as long as Farage is in charge. His dominance of the party is the root cause of the problems they are having at the moment and they will not be able to get things like candidate selection and accountability sorted out properly until he steps down.
On the other hand there is an argument to be made that UKIP have been able to be ruthless with miscreants because he runs it in such a dictatorial manner whilst other parties do not seem to be able or willing to rid themselves of embarrassments so easily.
While I respect you're views with respect to Farage, and certainly think there are capable candidates to replace him, I think Farage is a very good performer as demonstrated on Marr this morning. I'm not saying that Ukip's rise wouldn't have happened without him as leader, but he's certainly done a good job as a figure head.
I have a huge amount of time for Farage and think that he is owed a huge debt of gratitude for having brought us to this point as far as both the rise of UKIP and the move towards leaving the EU is concerned. He was very much the man for the job until recently.
But I simply don't believe that his style of leadership or his abilities in the day to day running of a party are sufficient to maintain a mainstream party fighting for seats in Parliament. I think he is now the wrong man for the job.
Incidently although he is by far my favourite political thinker at the moment, I also don't necessarily think Carswell would be right as party leader. I see him more in the Keith Joseph mould as a policy maker. Perhaps the time is right for UKIP to have their own Thatcher from amongst their female candidates.
I'm not convinced the rank and file would welcome a female leader.
In the real world, no one has ever heard of this MEP, never mind care about his defection.
Though the Game Of Thrones imitation that is internal UKIP politics continues.
And will do unfortunately for as long as Farage is in charge. His dominance of the party is the root cause of the problems they are having at the moment and they will not be able to get things like candidate selection and accountability sorted out properly until he steps down.
On the other hand there is an argument to be made that UKIP have been able to be ruthless with miscreants because he runs it in such a dictatorial manner whilst other parties do not seem to be able or willing to rid themselves of embarrassments so easily.
While I respect you're views with respect to Farage, and certainly think there are capable candidates to replace him, I think Farage is a very good performer as demonstrated on Marr this morning. I'm not saying that Ukip's rise wouldn't have happened without him as leader, but he's certainly done a good job as a figure head.
I have a huge amount of time for Farage and think that he is owed a huge debt of gratitude for having brought us to this point as far as both the rise of UKIP and the move towards leaving the EU is concerned. He was very much the man for the job until recently.
But I simply don't believe that his style of leadership or his abilities in the day to day running of a party are sufficient to maintain a mainstream party fighting for seats in Parliament. I think he is now the wrong man for the job.
Incidently although he is by far my favourite political thinker at the moment, I also don't necessarily think Carswell would be right as party leader. I see him more in the Keith Joseph mould as a policy maker. Perhaps the time is right for UKIP to have their own Thatcher from amongst their female candidates.
Thatcher was brought down by envious little men. So perhaps not the best advice, considering the source.
Mrs T was brought down by her own hubris over the poll tax.
She defenestrated herself because she didn't listen to cautious advice on the issue.
Ahem, those castigating Bashir's volte-face tended to skip over Carswell's similar about-turn.
I'm not taken with turncoat behaviour generally, to be honest. But it's not legitimate to criticise only one of them.
I, on the other hand, believe we should have far more crossing the floor. Parties are not sacred cows and no one owes their allegiance to a party if the party leadership fails to behave honestly with membership and the electorate (which no party frankly ever does). Assuming there was nothing in the allegations against Bashir then he is absolutely correct to jump ship if he feels the party is no longer going in the direction he believes it should.
My only problem with MEPs is that people did not vote for them, they voted for the party and so in an ideal road it would be nice to see MEPs having the courage of their convictions and standing down rather than clinging to power. But in the end that is an argument for changing the electoral system not for attacking politicians who change parties.
Entirely right. Those criticising "turncoats" are arguing for the dominance of party leadership. Elected representatives' loyalty should be towards their constituents, not towards their leaders. People's views on this issue really gets to deeper notions in how they conceive politics should exist: from the grassroots up, or from the elite down.
Anything remotely positive to vote Labour for? Such poverty of thought and ambition will go a long way to explaining why ed will do so badly in May.
That cuts both ways of course. Why should anyone vote Conservative ? Yes, some people will because of the engendered fear that somehow a Labour Government will unleash plague, pestilence and usher in the four Horsemen of the Apocalypse (the form I'm in, I couldn't back the winner of that race either !)
As I opined the other day, the choice is between an inept Labour administration and a Conservative administration so mired in its own Euro-introspection it'll forget about running the country until the much-awaited EU referendum after which the Tories can schism into obscurity and the rest of us will be left to pick up the pieces.
So defecit reduction Growing economy Increased full time jobs Low inflation Increased wages Count for nothing ? Fair enough.
What you mean saddo is "F*** you jack" I am doing all right, who cares about the majority
Er! 55% is not a majority on Planet Eck? While the 45 on your badge refers to the price of Brent crude?
Half wit makes another one laugh, you could not make it up
Comments
And the result has been that the 40%+ of the electorate who indicated that they were inclined to vote Labour two years ago has been whittled down to perhaps 32%. It is a brave man who calls the bottom of that particular market.
Can those erstwhile supporters be won back? Possibly, but the answer for Labour is not specifically to court Green voters - and indeed doing so would involve ceding the centre ground and burning what remains of their fiscal credibility (just as the Conservatives can never out-Ukip Ukip, Labour can never out-Green the Greens). Nor can Labour risk turning their back on the disillusioned working class voters who can cost them seats in the North and Midlands by turning to Ukip, and who would have no truck with shunting her majesty into a council house and paying millionaires a citizen's income.
Too many within Labour are obsessed with reprising the debate of the Blair/Brown era - can Labour win on an overtly social democratic prospectus, or must fiscal pragmatism be the cornerstone of any campaign? The result in 2015 and in the absence of real leadership is a dreadful mess; a party committed to austerity, but whose every instinct is to reject it and whose every policy assumes it won't exist. Cuts are presented as both severe and without consequence; Labour the same but very different. It isn't credible and voters are steadily turning their backs. Labour needs to shape up quickly or its rejection in May will be total. Labour supporters won't flock to the Tories; they'll just register their protest against this Government elsewhere or, more likely, make themselves a cup of tea instead.
As I opined the other day, the choice is between an inept Labour administration and a Conservative administration so mired in its own Euro-introspection it'll forget about running the country until the much-awaited EU referendum after which the Tories can schism into obscurity and the rest of us will be left to pick up the pieces.
You can (and some here would) argue against that, but popular perception is that the Coalition (which has increasingly been considered the Conservatives, even though that's inaccurate) has been economically sound.
Growing economy
Increased full time jobs
Low inflation
Increased wages
Count for nothing ? Fair enough.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-30972534
Lab 32.9% (-0.3)
Con 32.0 (+0.3)
UKIP 14.5 (-1.6)
LD 7.9 (+0.7)
Green 7.4 (+1.2)
Lab lead 0.9% (-0.6)
LibDem lead over Greens 0.5% (-0.3)
Yes, there are more full-time jobs which is welcome but many of them are on low wages and there's an argument that employing people rather than spending capital on technological improvement is holding back the economy as productivity stagnates.
Low inflation - well, that's true everywhere and it's not just about fuel or food prices. My Travelcard (which I need to get to and from work) has persistently risen well above inflation.
Increased wages - debatable for many. Personally, I'm worse off now than I was in 2010 in terms of my salary against inflation.
I think you need to take off the CCHQ-issue blue tinted specs and accept that for a lot of people the "recovery" is illusory at best and downright deceptive at worst. Indeed, for many people, 2010-15 has been about running hard to stand still in terms of working hours and income.
Can we now speak of a Green surge?
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/559293298867978241?lang=en-gb
After the Lab/Lib/Con nutters went slightly barmy on PB last night, most promising the end of UKIP, have they come to their senses and realised that however much UKIP is attacked it only gets stronger.
And after a very strong performance on Marr by Farage, which hardly anyone on PB mentions, UKIP can now look forward to further advances.
There's no doubt that the Conservatives are currently benefitting more the Liberal Democrats in this respect and I will confess to having been caught out by this, having long expected the LDs to recover as the election approaches. Little sign of that! My revised view is that the LDs have given us an object lesson in (1) how to be very good coalition partners and (2) how to get the politics of coalition completely wrong. It is remarkable how stable the coalition has been and how united the quad has been. The LDs have solid policy successes they can point to - the increased personal allowance, for example - and have been on the bridge while the government have navigated difficult economic waters, and emerged well from them. But they have largely squandered the credit they might have got by not being sufficiently clear which aspects of the government's programme they own, and which they are having to bear as part of coalition reality, and by increasingly portraying themselves as distant and unhappy with the government they form a key part of. They've also ceded too much of their own identity. They should have been much more vocal about what a separate Lib Dem administration would do.
I hope future coalition partners learn from the Lib Dems experience. I fear the next coalition will be more volatile as future minor partners address the issues the Lib Dems have had at the expense of being good coalition partners.
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/559294285246640128
Glad he echoed my sentiments re the conservatives and Bashir... Very very surprising they have welcomed him with such open arms considering his links... I reckon they were so desperate to get one up on ukip they'd accept anyone
Maybe cameron will regret yesterday's words and pictures re amjad
But, Red Liberals don't care about the economy. They care very much that their party "betrayed" them. They want revenge.
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/559295175902896128
Whatever happened to the government's happiness index?
@MarrShow @UKIP_Voter Ok so we lost one..Cons lost two last year. But UKIP pick themselves up and business as usual. Well done Nigel again
https://www.twitter.com/AmjadBashirMEP/status/554024903666831360
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/559296427927801856
Labour finally admit if they win in May, hospital bed numbers would be cut and even some hospitals closed. Showing their true colours now.
Carl Davis @Fight4UK 12h12 hours ago
Oh no, @AmjadBashirMEP deleting tweets saying #UKIP not anti Muslim.
Pathetic idiot, that your defence?
My hunch is that they will be disproportionately found in safe seats, where statements can be made safely.
I'm not taken with turncoat behaviour generally, to be honest. But it's not legitimate to criticise only one of them.
Scotland muddies the waters to some degree but the England polls don't make good reading for either the Lib Dems or the Conservatives. A swing of 5-7% (Ashcroft outlier poll notwithstanding) from the Conservatives to Labour is going to do a lot of damage to Tory seat numbers and with no prospect (seemingly) of a Con-SNP deal, it doesn't help Cameron to see Labour's Scottish seats go to the Nationalists.
I reckon the confusing five-party landscape will end up being a lot of help to incumbents, who have a very clear claim to be Winning Here.
It says that as far as NHS workers are concerned:
• Wages have fallen by between 12%-15% in real terms since 2010
• One third of NHS workers earn less than £21,000 a year
• 40,000 earn less than the ‘living wage’
• Average basic salary for NHS staff in England is around £26,000 a year.
Now that may or may not be true. Or entirely true. But a lot of people a) believe it, and b), especially as as the first point is concerned, feel it. And they have familes and friends to whom they talk.
Reductions in tax have been useful but they haven’t been as much as 12-15%
Please desist from wasting pixels with your 'analytical graphs'. You will only confuse Gaijin as to what the word/value of "eight" is....
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/top-tory-forced-grovel-after-5037897#ICID=sharebar_twitter
A bit of a Scottish start, but you're back to being British again.
http://www.theguardian.com/sport/live/2015/jan/25/andy-murray-grigor-dimitrov-australian-open-live
That being said: Farage does seem to be quite good at pissing people off.
Caveat Emptor Mr Cameron indeed.
No mention of the patients they're meant to be caring for?
Fun watching Farage this morning. He really is a pompous man. His face was saying "how dare you ask me that" while his voice was trying to make light of things. UKIP clearly has a problem with some of its "young Turks" who open their mouths and say what they really think.
Though the Game Of Thrones imitation that is internal UKIP politics continues.
Liblabcon think that fifty years of socially liberal propaganda and "soft" initimidation has made the British people socially liberal. It hasn't, it has made the upper echelons closed to anyone not socially liberal unless they are clever enough to pretend that they are socially liberal and the british people disenfranchised and wary of publically expressing any opinion not socially liberal. Fargle has blown this cartel out of the water.
Anyway, of course UKIP resemble the Scots nats, they are to all intents and purpose the English nats.
Someone has requested that I should not reply to a thread bait that that person initiated. Why initiate in the first place...?
:thus-ends-the-web:
More 'me, me, me'.
No mention of the patients they're meant to be caring for?
To which I would reply
Only that they’re providing services to more patients than ever before!
And a demoralised army is not likely to fight well. I’m sure one of our resident experts on military history can provide examples!
'Top Scottish Labour official lays bare "pathetic" state of engagement with voters
SCOTTISH Labour bosses have drawn up a league table naming and shaming moribund local parties that are failing to contact enough voters ahead of the Westminster election.
A leaked general election strategy paper shows that activists in fourteen seats, including key SNP targets in Glasgow and Lanarkshire, have been in touch with fewer than 100 voters.'
http://tinyurl.com/q3cx74z
Most active CLPs –
Edinburgh East, Midlothian, Kilmarnock and Loudon
Least active CLPs –
Glasgow North West; Glasgow South; Glasgow South West; Inverclyde; Central Ayrshire, Paisley and Renfrewshire South; Paisley and Renfrewshire North; Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East; Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill; East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow; and Lanark and Hamilton East.
(ht Oldnat)
On the other hand there is an argument to be made that UKIP have been able to be ruthless with miscreants because he runs it in such a dictatorial manner whilst other parties do not seem to be able or willing to rid themselves of embarrassments so easily.
The last thing many of their supporters wanted was for them ever to be in government. They are attracted by pie in the sky idealism that will never come to pass.
I'd have thought the greens would suit red libs down to the ground
'And after a very strong performance on Marr by Farage, which hardly anyone on PB mentions, UKIP can now look forward to further advances.'
When are the other 8 Tory MP's going to defect to UKIP ?
My only problem with MEPs is that people did not vote for them, they voted for the party and so in an ideal road it would be nice to see MEPs having the courage of their convictions and standing down rather than clinging to power. But in the end that is an argument for changing the electoral system not for attacking politicians who change parties.
Ridiculous
It's not simply about changing party, it's about immediately repudiating things that just a few days before were being ardently defended.
That's a fair comment on MEPs (PR remains horrid).
So perhaps not the best analogy you could have used.
Blue Lionhearts 1.93/1.95
Red Custards 2.08/2.10
But I simply don't believe that his style of leadership or his abilities in the day to day running of a party are sufficient to maintain a mainstream party fighting for seats in Parliament. I think he is now the wrong man for the job.
Incidently although he is by far my favourite political thinker at the moment, I also don't necessarily think Carswell would be right as party leader. I see him more in the Keith Joseph mould as a policy maker. Perhaps the time is right for UKIP to have their own Thatcher from amongst their female candidates.
Very difficult to do so in a two-party system, with a legislature split very obviously between Us and Them.
When the Commons was rebuilt after the WWII bombing it was suggested it be redesigned on a semi-circular basis, but Churchill in particular wouldn’t hear of it.
Much easier to move a few seats to the right or left that to “cross the floor”
Although of course Churchill himself did so at least twice.
Con 32 [ 31.8 ], Lab 32.2 [ 32.8 ], LD 7.2 [ 6.4 ], UKIP 15.2 [ 16 ], Grn 8 [ 7 ]. Last week in brackets.
Lab and UKIP down, LD and Greens up. Con slightly up.
Projections coming up shortly.
She defenestrated herself because she didn't listen to cautious advice on the issue.
Just watching Daily Politics - Jillian Creasy the Green party candidate for Sheffield Central is very impressive.