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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The 22 LAB targets/seats that political scientist, Rob Ford, says could be put at risk by the Green surge

The leading political scientist, Rob Ford of Manchester University, has an analysis in the Observer this morning about the dangers of the current Green party surge to Labour’s GE15 chances.

Read the full story here

peter_from_putney

First ..... again!

audreyanne

Good thread Mike. 10 of those 20 seats are in London where Labour are already vulnerable over the Mansion Tax. I previously had London Labour out-perforning there. Not any more.

Very true about the big party machines though. Generally people tend to come back on board nearer the clinch.

Any chance of a thread on LibDem seats vulnerable to the Conservatives? Or is that a little too close to home for comfort?

audreyanne

I don't like people switching sides, least of all when they then put the boot in. It's egotistical and dishonourable, so I put Reckless and Bashir in similar camps. Nevertheless, this is quite hard hitting stuff:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30971892

MarqueeMark

There would be a certain delicious irony if the NHS were to be UKIP's undoing - and the Tories' route back to power...

peter_from_putney

There can be no doubt that the recent surge in support for the Greens, if sustained, could be seriously bad news for Labour, as would be a recovery to a comfortable double digit level of support for the LibDems, which would also damage the Tories although possibly to a lesser extent. They themselves are most at risk from UKIP retaining its current level of support, let alone increasing it.
In evaluating how these factors interact, along with the huge shift from Labour to the SNP in Scotland, I devised and introduced to PBers last month the Putney Upside Down Inverted Nonsense Guide or "PUDING Index" (Copyright).
In essence, this operates on the basis that it will be the share of the vote at the May GE received in each case by the Greens, the LibDems, UKIP and the SNP which will largely determine the outcome and therefore the nature of the next Government as much or possibly more so than the simple division of votes between the two major parties which is likely to be close, possibly very close.

AndyJS

Interesting list. Virtually all of them are either London or university constituencies as you'd expect. Watford is the exception, where the Greens have had some success in local elections IIRC. I think Cambridge is the number one seat where the Greens are likely to deprive Labour of winning. One likely scenario there is a LD majority of 500 and a Green showing of about 5,000.

TGOHF

Labour won't win Cambridge , Green surge or not.

TGOHF

The Sun story the previous thead was discussing..


http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/6293450/Labour-to-cut-NHS.html?CMP=spklr-134403281-Editorial-TWITTER-Sun_Politics-20150125-Politics

Exposed: Labour’s secret plan to cut NHS
Party to cut bed numbers and close hospitals

Pong

Very interesting article. I did some similar analysis a week ago or so, when the greens got 11% in the ashcroft poll. I was trying to identify seats which had a small, but realistic potential to go green, if the greengasm reached a sustained ~15%.

Sadly, I couldn't see beyond Brighton Pavillion, Bristol W & Norwich S - with Cardiff Central as an outside chance. FPTP just sets too higher bar for the vote to convert into seats.

I still think the greens will put in a decent performance and possibly win either norwich S or bristol W - the interesting bet (for me) is how much of the left wing vote they'll be able to sweep up.

If any (reputable) PB'er wants to lay a bet on the highest % green vote in ANY constituency, I'd be up for it. I'd be prepared to back overs on:

Any constituency in the UK: 32%
Any constituency excluding Brighton Pavillion: 22%
Any constituency excluding the 22 on Rob Ford's list: 10%

LogicalSong

We speak for bigots - UKIP public relations chief, Matthew Richardson:
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/article1511353.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2015_01_24
Thanks for clearing that up.

Gadfly

Here's an updated chart of the averaged YouGov polls for the last 12 months...
http://www.mediafire.com/view/8ddtx44q6ttb3q4/YouGov polls 12 months to 25 January 2015.jpg#

Within this period the averaged party shares have changed as follows...
Tory down 1.6 points from 33.6 to 32
Labour down 6.2 points from 38.4 to 32.2
LibDem down 1.4 points from 8.6 to 7.2
Ukip up 3.2 points from 12.6 to 15.8
Green up 5.6 points from 2.4 to 8

Here's an updated chart of the averaged YouGov polls since the 2010 general election...
http://www.mediafire.com/view/hgd4px8847v448e/YouGov Polls since 2010 GE as of 25 January 2015.jpg#

Pong

The most interesting aspect of the UKIP defection is that UKIP were able to smear him before the announcement.

UKIP obviously have moles deep within the tory machine.

audreyanne

Pong said:

The most interesting aspect of the UKIP defection is that UKIP were able to smear him before the announcement.

UKIP obviously have some moles deep within the tory machine.

It's not the most interesting thing, but I'll accept your hyperbole.

However, you've raised a non-sequitur. There's nothing obvious about your claim, even if it may be true. After many years on the inside of the media I can tell you there are a hundred different routes besides the one you suggest, including those close to Bashir and, much much more likely, inside the media. I suspect the story was intended as a scoop (probably MoS) and the others got hold of it. Often happens.

audreyanne

Gadfly said:

Here's an updated chart of the averaged YouGov polls for the last 12 months...

Hi Gadfly, thanks and good work but 12 months isn't all that useful. Any chance of doing 3 months? Then we can see any trends that may be more pertinent for May.

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

It's election day in Greece. I hope they don't take days to count the votes.

On green-red voting, it's worth noting that lots of disaffected ex-Lib Dems just wanted something else to vote for. If Miliband were less uninspiring he'd be doing better north of the border as well as when it comes to holding onto the sandal and rocket sandwiches voters.

I wonder if there might be an effect due to his ingenious plan, which many of us criticised at the time, of freezing energy prices at the top of the market. As for the 'it was a cap' lie, even if that had been the policy, you can't gerrymander prices so that they only ever fall.

audreyanne

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

It's election day in Greece. I hope they don't take days to count the votes.

Yep big day for them and for Europe. We shouldn't have to wait days:

'Polls opened at 7.00 a.m. (1200 EDT) and are due to close at 7.00 p.m., with 9.8 million Greeks eligible to vote. The first exit poll is expected immediately after voting ends, with the first official projections due at 9.30 p.m. with results being updated into the night.' Reuters

Paul_Mid_Beds

If this is the best the tories, labour and their media lapdogs can do, then they are in big trouble. Notice the story about a certain MEP being suspended has mysteriously vanished from a certain tory licking tabloid.

Imagine their headlines if the Tory party had suspended someone over serious allegations and they were welomed into UKIP with Fargle "delighted".

All this sort of thing does is confirm Liblabcon as a single self serving entity that needs to be defeated.

audreyanne

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

If this is the best the tories, labour and their media lapdogs can do, then they are in big trouble. into UKIP with Fargle "delighted".

All this sort of thing does is confirm Liblabcon as a single self serving entity that needs to be defeated.

Hehe. I love it. There's nothing quite like a battered kipper.

Gadfly

For audreyanne

Chart of 100 most recent YouGov polls...

http://www.mediafire.com/view/lypoczb9pp3eh9a/100 most recent YouGov polls as of 25 January 2015.jpg#

Morris_Dancer

Miss Anne, cheers for the times, greatly appreciated.

Paul_Mid_Beds

LogicalSong said:

We speak for bigots - UKIP public relations chief, Matthew Richardson:
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/article1511353.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2015_01_24
Thanks for clearing that up.

Another unguarded hyperbole story that will resonate with people who hate UKIP and make those thinking of voting for them all the more determined to.

Pretty obvious he meant by "bigots" people whol liblabcon consider to be "bigots" because they wont follow the extreme loony left pc social agenda that the tories have now embraced with liblab, that is seeing 10 year olds abused by being interrogated about "what lesbians were, and whether she felt trapped in someone else’s body" by government inspectors and their schools being closed down when they say no.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2922619/Daughter-s-tears-lesbian-quiz-Fury-children-branded-intolerant-wrong-answers-Ofsted-questions-sexuality.html

Paul_Mid_Beds

audreyanne said:

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

If this is the best the tories, labour and their media lapdogs can do, then they are in big trouble. into UKIP with Fargle "delighted".

All this sort of thing does is confirm Liblabcon as a single self serving entity that needs to be defeated.

Hehe. I love it. There's nothing quite like a battered kipper.

I would wait until May 8th before celebrating if I were you. A few spun stories in Tory shill papers is hardly battered.

JackW

AndyJS said:

Interesting list. Virtually all of them are either London or university constituencies as you'd expect. Watford is the exception, where the Greens have had some success in local elections IIRC. I think Cambridge is the number one seat where the Greens are likely to deprive Labour of winning. One likely scenario there is a LD majority of 500 and a Green showing of about 5,000.

Cambridge is one of the "JackW Dozen" seats and has moved firmly into the LibDem Hold column.

@rcs1000 has a contact in the constituency Labour party who now expects the seat to return Huppert.

OldKingCole

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

If this is the best the tories, labour and their media lapdogs can do, then they are in big trouble. Notice the story about a certain MEP being suspended has mysteriously vanished from a certain tory licking tabloid.

Imagine their headlines if the Tory party had suspended someone over serious allegations and they were welomed into UKIP with Fargle "delighted".

All this sort of thing does is confirm Liblabcon as a single self serving entity that needs to be defeated.

I suspect everythng rather depends on the sequence of events. If UKIP had decided to suspend the chap for “irregularities”, he got wind of it and decided to jump, then it’s one thing. If the order is reversed, then it’s something else.

O/T, could this be West Ham’s year for the FA Cup?

foxinsoxuk

AndyJS said:

Interesting list. Virtually all of them are either London or university constituencies as you'd expect. Watford is the exception, where the Greens have had some success in local elections IIRC. I think Cambridge is the number one seat where the Greens are likely to deprive Labour of winning. One likely scenario there is a LD majority of 500 and a Green showing of about 5,000.

The University constituency focus could be the Greens Achilles heel. They need a good ground campaign to ensure those voters get registered, and I do not think that they have much time to get it organised.

I am not convinced that canvassing will convince many Green inclined to vote Labour. The rise in the Green poll seems largely to be due to dislike of Labour and Labours implausible cuts especially.

audreyanne

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

audreyanne said:

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

If this is the best the tories, labour and their media lapdogs can do, then they are in big trouble. into UKIP with Fargle "delighted".

All this sort of thing does is confirm Liblabcon as a single self serving entity that needs to be defeated.

Hehe. I love it. There's nothing quite like a battered kipper.

A few spun stories in Tory shill papers is hardly battered.

Oh I wasn't thinking of the papers. It's more you. Watching how the kippers react and interact on here has been educational.

OldKingCole

foxinsoxuk said:

AndyJS said:

Interesting list. Virtually all of them are either London or university constituencies as you'd expect. Watford is the exception, where the Greens have had some success in local elections IIRC. I think Cambridge is the number one seat where the Greens are likely to deprive Labour of winning. One likely scenario there is a LD majority of 500 and a Green showing of about 5,000.

The University constituency focus could be the Greens Achilles heel. They need a good ground campaign to ensure those voters get registered, and I do not think that they have much time to get it organised.

I am not convinced that canvassing will convince many Green inclined to vote Labour. The rise in the Green poll seems largely to be due to dislike of Labour and Labours implausible cuts especially.

I’m slomewhat surprised that “someone” ...... 38 Degrees or someone like that ...... isn’t organising voter registration drives. Had a letter from our local Council the other day asking us if the details they had were right. If they were, we didn’t have to do anything. IIRC it was addressed to “the Occupier”.

foxinsoxuk

JackW said:

AndyJS said:

Interesting list. Virtually all of them are either London or university constituencies as you'd expect. Watford is the exception, where the Greens have had some success in local elections IIRC. I think Cambridge is the number one seat where the Greens are likely to deprive Labour of winning. One likely scenario there is a LD majority of 500 and a Green showing of about 5,000.

Cambridge is one of the "JackW Dozen" seats and has moved firmly into the LibDem Hold column.

@rcs1000 has a contact in the constituency Labour party who now expects the seat to return Huppert.

Retaining the seat would be quite a coup. Huppert is 50/1 as next LD leader, and they could do much worse.

Paul_Mid_Beds

When are the Luegenpresse going to realise that all they are doing is giving UKIP publicity and keeping them in the public eye while making clear that they are a very different entity from Liblabcon.

You would think Custard Dave and co would have learned their lesson when their fake tantrum about the Greens being excluded saw them increase to 11% in the opinion polls.

Short of discovering a grade 1 scandal such as a senior kipper caught violatnig a senior member of the royal family, all their smears do is give UKIP free publicity, especially when they so obviously backfire as happened yesterday.

Paul_Mid_Beds

OldKingCole said:

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

If this is the best the tories, labour and their media lapdogs can do, then they are in big trouble. Notice the story about a certain MEP being suspended has mysteriously vanished from a certain tory licking tabloid.

Imagine their headlines if the Tory party had suspended someone over serious allegations and they were welomed into UKIP with Fargle "delighted".

All this sort of thing does is confirm Liblabcon as a single self serving entity that needs to be defeated.

I suspect everythng rather depends on the sequence of events. If UKIP had decided to suspend the chap for “irregularities”, he got wind of it and decided to jump, then it’s one thing. If the order is reversed, then it’s something else.

O/T, could this be West Ham’s year for the FA Cup?

Nah, Crystal Palace nailed on. Comeon Pardews army...Eagles..

OldKingCole

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

When are the Luegenpresse going to realise that all they are doing is giving UKIP publicity and keeping them in the public eye while making clear that they are a very different entity from Liblabcon.

You would think Custard Dave and co would have learned their lesson when their fake tantrum about the Greens being excluded saw them increase to 11% in the opinion polls.

Short of discovering a grade 1 scandal such as a senior kipper caught violatnig a senior member of the royal family, all their smears do is give UKIP free publicity, especially when they so obviously backfire as happened yesterday.

I’d have thought discovering that a UKIP MEP had his fingers in the till demonstrated the similarity of UKIP to the Establishment, not the opposite!

Paul_Mid_Beds

audreyanne said:

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

audreyanne said:

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

If this is the best the tories, labour and their media lapdogs can do, then they are in big trouble. into UKIP with Fargle "delighted".

All this sort of thing does is confirm Liblabcon as a single self serving entity that needs to be defeated.

Hehe. I love it. There's nothing quite like a battered kipper.

A few spun stories in Tory shill papers is hardly battered.

Oh I wasn't thinking of the papers. It's more you. Watching how the kippers react and interact on here has been educational.

Except that, as I've previously made clear, I'm absolutely nothing to do with UKIP at any level (and never have so much as communicated with them, let alone joined them), just happen to be intending to vote for them, and this sort of thing makes me all the more determined to do so.

Roger

All the romantic visions of voting Green will come to nothing. Green suppoerters first priority is getting rid of this Tory government which in nearly all cases will involve voting Labour. The same applies to past Lib Dems betrayed by Clegg. They've always been lefty tactical voters and when push comes to shove they'll understand their choices

OldKingCole

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

OldKingCole said:

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

If this is the best the tories, labour and their media lapdogs can do, then they are in big trouble. Notice the story about a certain MEP being suspended has mysteriously vanished from a certain tory licking tabloid.

Imagine their headlines if the Tory party had suspended someone over serious allegations and they were welomed into UKIP with Fargle "delighted".

All this sort of thing does is confirm Liblabcon as a single self serving entity that needs to be defeated.

I suspect everythng rather depends on the sequence of events. If UKIP had decided to suspend the chap for “irregularities”, he got wind of it and decided to jump, then it’s one thing. If the order is reversed, then it’s something else.

O/T, could this be West Ham’s year for the FA Cup?

Nah, Crystal Palace nailed on. Comeon Pardews army...Eagles..

Good result yesterday for sure.

TGOHF

foxinsoxuk said:

JackW said:

AndyJS said:

Interesting list. Virtually all of them are either London or university constituencies as you'd expect. Watford is the exception, where the Greens have had some success in local elections IIRC. I think Cambridge is the number one seat where the Greens are likely to deprive Labour of winning. One likely scenario there is a LD majority of 500 and a Green showing of about 5,000.

Cambridge is one of the "JackW Dozen" seats and has moved firmly into the LibDem Hold column.

@rcs1000 has a contact in the constituency Labour party who now expects the seat to return Huppert.

Retaining the seat would be quite a coup. Huppert is 50/1 as next LD leader, and they could do much worse.

My local seat. Remember the Lab candidate is a NP style retread who came THIRD in 2010. Also caused a storm with some Nazi saluting in the last campaign.

Also Huppert is very popular locally - plus property prices and commuter influx is diminishing the grip of the academics and students on the seat.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Roger, isn't that just the same as assuming all UKIP voters will shift to the Conservatives to stop Labour?

I think people are more willing to vote for (as it were) third parties now than before.

audreyanne

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

audreyanne said:

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

audreyanne said:

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

If this is the best the tories, labour and their media lapdogs can do, then they are in big trouble. into UKIP with Fargle "delighted".

All this sort of thing does is confirm Liblabcon as a single self serving entity that needs to be defeated.

Hehe. I love it. There's nothing quite like a battered kipper.

A few spun stories in Tory shill papers is hardly battered.

Oh I wasn't thinking of the papers. It's more you. Watching how the kippers react and interact on here has been educational.

Except that I'm absolutely nothing to do with UKIP […] just happen to be intending to vote for them

I love this.

Apart from how funny that is, you do realise it's the position of most kippers, don't you? It's a party which has come from virtually nothing, has little established base and will draw almost entirely for support on people like you. The extent to which that is ephemeral is the extent to how well they will do come match day.

TheWatcher

Roger said:

All the romantic visions of voting Green will come to nothing. Green suppoerters first priority is getting rid of this Tory government which in nearly all cases will involve voting Labour. The same applies to past Lib Dems betrayed by Clegg. They've always been lefty tactical voters and when push comes to shove they'll understand their choices

As arrogant an assertion as Peter Hain was making on Friday nights Any Questions. They're not 'Labour's votes', the X can go wherever the elector chooses. Things have changed Roger.

CarlottaVance

Roger said:

All the romantic visions of voting Green will come to nothing. Green suppoerters first priority is getting rid of this Tory government which in nearly all cases will involve voting Labour. The same applies to past Lib Dems betrayed by Clegg. They've always been lefty tactical voters and when push comes to shove they'll understand their choices

But is Ed promising what Lefty tactical voters want? Isn't his first "pledge" something to do with the deficit? Doesn't sound very lefty!

In other news - net doing well (among VI)

Cameron: -7 (+96)
Miliband: -50 (+12)

JackW

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Roger, isn't that just the same as assuming all UKIP voters will shift to the Conservatives to stop Labour?

I think people are more willing to vote for (as it were) third parties now than before.

One of the reasons for the Green uptick in the polls is IMO some inclined Labour/Green supporters realise that Miliband is a dud and in abandoning a lost cause are prepared to give the Green Party a leg up.

Morris_Dancer

Sharapova versus Bouchard in the Australian Open.

Betfair now has a head-to-head button up, which leads nowhere, but hopefully it is, at least, an indication they're bringing back the stats (although why they did away with the excellent old page is beyond me).

For the record, I think Sharapova has usually ended up on top when she's tussled with Bouchard. However, the latter is younger and I'm sure she'll conquer Sharapova sooner or later.

DavidL

Promoting the Greens for the debate has proved a master stroke for Cameron offsetting the UKIP damage with very similar damage to Labour. Ed helps of course because it is his lack of inspiration that tempts people to look for left wing alternatives , whether it is the SNP in Scotland or the Greens elsewhere.

I think Labour will find it hard to bring these disillousioned voters back into the fold, at least until they change their leader.

MarqueeMark

JackW said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Roger, isn't that just the same as assuming all UKIP voters will shift to the Conservatives to stop Labour?

I think people are more willing to vote for (as it were) third parties now than before.

One of the reasons for the Green uptick in the polls is IMO some inclined Labour/Green supporters realise that Miliband is a dud and in abandoning a lost cause are prepared to give the Green Party a leg up.

Why, Jack, anyone would think you are suggesting that the consequence of such a leg up is that Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister....

MikeK

Nigel Farage ‏@Nigel_Farage 10m10 minutes ago
I'll be on the @MarrShow at 9am. Tune in!

audreyanne

edit: see above

audreyanne

Roger said:

All the romantic visions of voting Green will come to nothing. Green suppoerters first priority is getting rid of this Tory government which in nearly all cases will involve voting Labour. The same applies to past Lib Dems betrayed by Clegg. They've always been lefty tactical voters and when push comes to shove they'll understand their choices

Gosh I don't think you're right on this, really don't. I voted Green once nationally and a couple of times locally and in the Europeans when I lived in Oxford and had a fair few Green supporting friends around. Greens attract a radical vote that used to be hoovered up by the LibDems and red Labour. I definitely wouldn't assume they are now Labour in disguise. If anything I'd say they are less likely to return to Labour and the LibDems than UKIP are to return Tory.

TheWatcher

MikeK said:

Nigel Farage ‏@Nigel_Farage 10m10 minutes ago
I'll be on the @MarrShow at 9am. Tune in!

Tune out.

It's a Sunday morning - most of us have far better things to do, but I'm sure audience numbers will be boosted by the bigots.

JackW

MarqueeMark said:

JackW said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Roger, isn't that just the same as assuming all UKIP voters will shift to the Conservatives to stop Labour?

I think people are more willing to vote for (as it were) third parties now than before.

One of the reasons for the Green uptick in the polls is IMO some inclined Labour/Green supporters realise that Miliband is a dud and in abandoning a lost cause are prepared to give the Green Party a leg up.

Why, Jack, anyone would think you are suggesting that the consequence of such a leg up is that Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister....

What a preposterous suggestion.

I'm sure Ed dreams of kissing hands with the Queen every night.

audreyanne

JackW said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Roger, isn't that just the same as assuming all UKIP voters will shift to the Conservatives to stop Labour?

I think people are more willing to vote for (as it were) third parties now than before.

One of the reasons for the Green uptick in the polls is IMO some inclined Labour/Green supporters realise that Miliband is a dud and in abandoning a lost cause are prepared to give the Green Party a leg up.

Yep, agreed. And the same doesn't apply the other way. Like him or not, no-one serious(ly) doubts that Cameron is PM material.

CarlottaVance

DavidL said:

Promoting the Greens for the debate has proved a master stroke for Cameron offsetting the UKIP damage with very similar damage to Labour. Ed helps of course because it is his lack of inspiration that tempts people to look for left wing alternatives , whether it is the SNP in Scotland or the Greens elsewhere.

I think Labour will find it hard to bring these disillousioned voters back into the fold, at least until they change their leader.

Murphy really is on "Mission Impossible" in Scotland:

Net doing well:
Baby eating posh fop English Tory : -25
Red Socialist who will undo every Tory cut: -58

foxinsoxuk

TGOHF said:

foxinsoxuk said:

JackW said:

AndyJS said:

Interesting list. Virtually all of them are either London or university constituencies as you'd expect. Watford is the exception, where the Greens have had some success in local elections IIRC. I think Cambridge is the number one seat where the Greens are likely to deprive Labour of winning. One likely scenario there is a LD majority of 500 and a Green showing of about 5,000.

Cambridge is one of the "JackW Dozen" seats and has moved firmly into the LibDem Hold column.

@rcs1000 has a contact in the constituency Labour party who now expects the seat to return Huppert.

Retaining the seat would be quite a coup. Huppert is 50/1 as next LD leader, and they could do much worse.

My local seat. Remember the Lab candidate is a NP style retread who came THIRD in 2010. Also caused a storm with some Nazi saluting in the last campaign.

Also Huppert is very popular locally - plus property prices and commuter influx is diminishing the grip of the academics and students on the seat.

Currently the LDs are polling less than 40% of 2010 votes, and for Huppert to retain the seat he would need to retain around 70% minimum of his 2010 voters, and for the others to split quite helpfully for him with Greens and Kippers helping wound his main rivals, having potential to be a 5 way marginal. He would have to play a blinder to do that, though I would be very happy for him to do so.

JackW

BBC bias - Marr with LibDem tie !!

MarqueeMark

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

When are the Luegenpresse going to realise that all they are doing is giving UKIP publicity and keeping them in the public eye while making clear that they are a very different entity from Liblabcon.

You would think Custard Dave and co would have learned their lesson when their fake tantrum about the Greens being excluded saw them increase to 11% in the opinion polls.

Short of discovering a grade 1 scandal such as a senior kipper caught violatnig a senior member of the royal family, all their smears do is give UKIP free publicity, especially when they so obviously backfire as happened yesterday.

You must be delighted today with the press that the Bigots Brigade is getting. All those front pages - publicity like that money simply cannot buy.

What on earth decent people like SeanF and Carswell are doing pinning their hopes on such people is just bizarre.

Roger

MD

"Mr. Roger, isn't that just the same as assuming all UKIP voters will shift to the Conservatives to stop Labour?"

I think quite a few will though I think the motivation for voting UKIP is more varied than the Greens.

Carlotta

"But is Ed promising what Lefty tactical voters want? Isn't his first "pledge" something to do with the deficit? Doesn't sound very lefty!"

No he isn't but now the election has arrived his market researchers will be on it with a vengince and any minute now I'd expect his marketing people to start choosing some big issues that resonate

tlg86

Could the Andrew Marr show be any more blatantly left wing? I'm not sure who I dislike more, Stephanie Flanders or Peter Hein.

JackW

foxinsoxuk said:

TGOHF said:

foxinsoxuk said:

JackW said:

AndyJS said:

Interesting list. Virtually all of them are either London or university constituencies as you'd expect. Watford is the exception, where the Greens have had some success in local elections IIRC. I think Cambridge is the number one seat where the Greens are likely to deprive Labour of winning. One likely scenario there is a LD majority of 500 and a Green showing of about 5,000.

Cambridge is one of the "JackW Dozen" seats and has moved firmly into the LibDem Hold column.

@rcs1000 has a contact in the constituency Labour party who now expects the seat to return Huppert.

Retaining the seat would be quite a coup. Huppert is 50/1 as next LD leader, and they could do much worse.

My local seat. Remember the Lab candidate is a NP style retread who came THIRD in 2010. Also caused a storm with some Nazi saluting in the last campaign.

Also Huppert is very popular locally - plus property prices and commuter influx is diminishing the grip of the academics and students on the seat.

Currently the LDs are polling less than 40% of 2010 votes, and for Huppert to retain the seat he would need to retain around 70% minimum of his 2010 voters, and for the others to split quite helpfully for him with Greens and Kippers helping wound his main rivals, having potential to be a 5 way marginal. He would have to play a blinder to do that, though I would be very happy for him to do so.

You're applying UNS to national polling and if the Ashcroft constituency polls tell us anything about LibDem seats it is the significant effect of incumbency.

Huppert only picked up the seat in 2010 and increased the majority. I'm increasingly of the view that he'll do a Farron/Lamb in the seat and comfortably hold on.

foxinsoxuk

MikeK said:

Nigel Farage ‏@Nigel_Farage 10m10 minutes ago
I'll be on the @MarrShow at 9am. Tune in!

Thanks for flagging up the making of "Night Must Fall" on last night. A very interesting story, and very sad about how it was shelved due to realpolitik over the Cold War and Palestine.

CarlottaVance

Roger said:

No he isn't but now the election has arrived his market researchers will be on it with a vengince and any minute now I'd expect his marketing people to start choosing some big issues that resonate

He's making "5 Pledges" - he's already done two (deficit and something else - cost of living and how his price freeze hasn't boosted energy bills?) and the NHS is third.....it's almost like he doesn't want to win.....

TCPoliticalBetting

tlg86 said:

Could the Andrew Marr show be any more blatantly left wing? I'm not sure who I dislike more, Stephanie Flanders or Peter Hain.

This is the impartial balanced bbc's idea for the two reviewing the papers with Marr. Three socialists together. 1 slept in the past with socialist blokes, 1 is a socialist Mp and the third used to sleep with anyone preferably socialists...

TGOHF

foxinsoxuk said:

TGOHF said:

foxinsoxuk said:

JackW said:

AndyJS said:

Interesting list. Virtually all of them are either London or university constituencies as you'd expect. Watford is the exception, where the Greens have had some success in local elections IIRC. I think Cambridge is the number one seat where the Greens are likely to deprive Labour of winning. One likely scenario there is a LD majority of 500 and a Green showing of about 5,000.

Cambridge is one of the "JackW Dozen" seats and has moved firmly into the LibDem Hold column.

@rcs1000 has a contact in the constituency Labour party who now expects the seat to return Huppert.

Retaining the seat would be quite a coup. Huppert is 50/1 as next LD leader, and they could do much worse.

My local seat. Remember the Lab candidate is a NP style retread who came THIRD in 2010. Also caused a storm with some Nazi saluting in the last campaign.

Also Huppert is very popular locally - plus property prices and commuter influx is diminishing the grip of the academics and students on the seat.

Currently the LDs are polling less than 40% of 2010 votes, and for Huppert to retain the seat he would need to retain around 70% minimum of his 2010 voters, and for the others to split quite helpfully for him with Greens and Kippers helping wound his main rivals, having potential to be a 5 way marginal. He would have to play a blinder to do that, though I would be very happy for him to do so.

I wouldn't rule out Labour being 3rd again.

TheWatcher

CarlottaVance said:

Roger said:

No he isn't but now the election has arrived his market researchers will be on it with a vengince and any minute now I'd expect his marketing people to start choosing some big issues that resonate

He's making "5 Pledges" - he's already done two (deficit and something else - cost of living and how his price freeze hasn't boosted energy bills?) and the NHS is third.....it's almost like he doesn't want to win.....

Energy pledge is in the dustbin already. The One Man Cost of Living Crisis has frozen bills, high. I wonder what he'll replace it with?

foxinsoxuk

JackW said:

foxinsoxuk said:

TGOHF said:

foxinsoxuk said:

JackW said:

AndyJS said:

Interesting list. Virtually all of them are either London or university constituencies as you'd expect. Watford is the exception, where the Greens have had some success in local elections IIRC. I think Cambridge is the number one seat where the Greens are likely to deprive Labour of winning. One likely scenario there is a LD majority of 500 and a Green showing of about 5,000.

Cambridge is one of the "JackW Dozen" seats and has moved firmly into the LibDem Hold column.

@rcs1000 has a contact in the constituency Labour party who now expects the seat to return Huppert.

Retaining the seat would be quite a coup. Huppert is 50/1 as next LD leader, and they could do much worse.

My local seat. Remember the Lab candidate is a NP style retread who came THIRD in 2010. Also caused a storm with some Nazi saluting in the last campaign.

Also Huppert is very popular locally - plus property prices and commuter influx is diminishing the grip of the academics and students on the seat.

Currently the LDs are polling less than 40% of 2010 votes, and for Huppert to retain the seat he would need to retain around 70% minimum of his 2010 voters, and for the others to split quite helpfully for him with Greens and Kippers helping wound his main rivals, having potential to be a 5 way marginal. He would have to play a blinder to do that, though I would be very happy for him to do so.

You're applying UNS to national polling and if the Ashcroft constituency polls tell us anything about LibDem seats it is the significant effect of incumbency.

Huppert only picked up the seat in 2010 and increased the majority. I'm increasingly of the view that he'll do a Farron/Lamb in the seat and comfortably hold on.

It would have to be one hell of an incumbency bonus to overcome UNS to that extent! If he does so then it would surely make 50/1 on him as next LD leader good value?

david_kendrick1

I was out leafletting on behalf of my successor as PPC in Cherry Hinton yesterday morning. Patrick O'Flynn, complete with his Cambridge Utd scarf, was in good form. He is working hard.

The general point to note is that UKIP is a quantum deal better organised than even two years ago. This was not a general leaflet: it was dedicated to Cherry Hinton. He told me that he was leaving his best area, Arbury (the biggest council estate in Cambridge)--until nearer the GE.

I'm not claiming that UKIP's organisation is as silky smooth and well organised as the other parties. But it is no shambles.

Roger

Expect to hear a lot about soup kitchens the bedroom tax and Osborne's promise to take welfare spending back to the 30's........

What a campaign!

maaarsh

Marr's paper review really has all angles covered. Male new Labour, female new Labour, there's something for everyone.

foxinsoxuk

TCPoliticalBetting said:

tlg86 said:

Could the Andrew Marr show be any more blatantly left wing? I'm not sure who I dislike more, Stephanie Flanders or Peter Hain.

This is the impartial balanced bbc's idea for the two reviewing the papers with Marr. Three socialists together. 1 slept in the past with socialist blokes, 1 is a socialist Mp and the third used to sleep with anyone preferably socialists...

Are you suggesting that socialism is a sexually transmitted disease?

CarlottaVance

Roger said:

Expect to hear a lot about soup kitchens the bedroom tax and Osborne's promise to take welfare spending back to the 30's........

What a campaign!

Is that the spending that Labour has pledged to match?

stodge

TCPoliticalBetting said:

tlg86 said:

Could the Andrew Marr show be any more blatantly left wing? I'm not sure who I dislike more, Stephanie Flanders or Peter Hain.

This is the impartial balanced bbc's idea for the two reviewing the papers with Marr. Three socialists together. 1 slept in the past with socialist blokes, 1 is a socialist Mp and the third used to sleep with anyone preferably socialists...

Perhaps the BBC couldn't find anyone on the Conservative side willing to get up on a Sunday morning ? All the Tory activists seem to be blogging on here.

JackW

foxinsoxuk said:

JackW said:

foxinsoxuk said:

TGOHF said:

foxinsoxuk said:

JackW said:

AndyJS said:

Interesting list. Virtually all of them are either London or university constituencies as you'd expect. Watford is the exception, where the Greens have had some success in local elections IIRC. I think Cambridge is the number one seat where the Greens are likely to deprive Labour of winning. One likely scenario there is a LD majority of 500 and a Green showing of about 5,000.

Cambridge is one of the "JackW Dozen" seats and has moved firmly into the LibDem Hold column.

@rcs1000 has a contact in the constituency Labour party who now expects the seat to return Huppert.

Retaining the seat would be quite a coup. Huppert is 50/1 as next LD leader, and they could do much worse.

My local seat. Remember the Lab candidate is a NP style retread who came THIRD in 2010. Also caused a storm with some Nazi saluting in the last campaign.

Also Huppert is very popular locally - plus property prices and commuter influx is diminishing the grip of the academics and students on the seat.

Currently the LDs are polling less than 40% of 2010 votes, and for Huppert to retain the seat he would need to retain around 70% minimum of his 2010 voters, and for the others to split quite helpfully for him with Greens and Kippers helping wound his main rivals, having potential to be a 5 way marginal. He would have to play a blinder to do that, though I would be very happy for him to do so.

You're applying UNS to national polling and if the Ashcroft constituency polls tell us anything about LibDem seats it is the significant effect of incumbency.

Huppert only picked up the seat in 2010 and increased the majority. I'm increasingly of the view that he'll do a Farron/Lamb in the seat and comfortably hold on.

It would have to be one hell of an incumbency bonus to overcome UNS to that extent! If he does so then it would surely make 50/1 on him as next LD leader good value?

Indeed but not unusual for some first term LibDem MP's such as the afore mentioned Farron and Lamb.

The 50/1 would appear to be a good trading bet.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Roger, Labour can't have it both ways.

They complain the 'deficit halved' statement is based on percentages not absolute figures, then use the exact same approach for their 1930s nonsense (which is worse, because the difference between absolute and percentage figures from 2010 is quite small, but from the 1930s it's absolutely enormous).

Of course, a media able to find its arse with both hands might have noticed this and pointed it out...

audreyanne

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

The Luegenpresse

Hehe. This is most amusing.

MarqueeMark said:

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

When are the Luegenpresse going to realise that all they are doing is giving UKIP publicity and keeping them in the public eye while making clear that they are a very different entity from Liblabcon.

You would think Custard Dave and co would have learned their lesson when their fake tantrum about the Greens being excluded saw them increase to 11% in the opinion polls.

Short of discovering a grade 1 scandal such as a senior kipper caught violatnig a senior member of the royal family, all their smears do is give UKIP free publicity, especially when they so obviously backfire as happened yesterday.

What on earth decent people like SeanF and Carswell are doing pinning their hopes on such people is just bizarre.

Quite.

TCPoliticalBetting

MarqueeMark said:

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

When are the Luegenpresse going to realise that all they are doing is giving UKIP publicity and keeping them in the public eye while making clear that they are a very different entity from Liblabcon.

You would think Custard Dave and co would have learned their lesson when their fake tantrum about the Greens being excluded saw them increase to 11% in the opinion polls.

Short of discovering a grade 1 scandal such as a senior kipper caught violatnig a senior member of the royal family, all their smears do is give UKIP free publicity, especially when they so obviously backfire as happened yesterday.

You must be delighted today with the press that the Bigots Brigade is getting. All those front pages - publicity like that money simply cannot buy.
What on earth decent people like SeanF and Carswell are doing pinning their hopes on such people is just bizarre.

A very good question which applies to all the UKIP posters on here, Mike, ISAM etc. The good fortune the other parties have is that Farage has consistently undermined or forced out every sane attempt to bring in proper procedures, vetting, policy development and administration. There is a very long list in UKIP going back to Petrina and grass roots democracy from Lechlade all good folk forced out by Farage's "my way" antics. After 20 years as a party they have no excuse that they still have a greater % of unstable folk in senior positions than the other three.

foxinsoxuk

JackW said:

MarqueeMark said:

JackW said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Roger, isn't that just the same as assuming all UKIP voters will shift to the Conservatives to stop Labour?

I think people are more willing to vote for (as it were) third parties now than before.

One of the reasons for the Green uptick in the polls is IMO some inclined Labour/Green supporters realise that Miliband is a dud and in abandoning a lost cause are prepared to give the Green Party a leg up.

Why, Jack, anyone would think you are suggesting that the consequence of such a leg up is that Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister....

What a preposterous suggestion.

I'm sure Ed dreams of kissing hands with the Queen every night.

I think Ed dreamed of being Leader of the Labour party, I am not at all convinced that he had thoughts beyond that. He reminds me of Gordon that way.

Roger

....and maybe a poster of Cameron's 'waste tzar' Sir Philip Green whose Monegaque (for tax purposes) wife earned £350,000,000 last year on his yacht in Monaco complaining about Labour's 'mansion tax'.

JackW

david_kendrick1 said:

I was out leafletting on behalf of my successor as PPC in Cherry Hinton yesterday morning. Patrick O'Flynn, complete with his Cambridge Utd scarf, was in good form. He is working hard.

The general point to note is that UKIP is a quantum deal better organised than even two years ago. This was not a general leaflet: it was dedicated to Cherry Hinton. He told me that he was leaving his best area, Arbury (the biggest council estate in Cambridge)--until nearer the GE.

I'm not claiming that UKIP's organisation is as silky smooth and well organised as the other parties. But it is no shambles.

Thank you David, it's always interesting to hear constituency reports. Perhaps you might consider regularly reporting on the seat in the coming months?

Further, what is your own present appreciation of the likely result ?

maaarsh

At last we've had some proper winter, says Marr, temporarily forgetting he is nominally presenting to a wider audience than North London/

TCPoliticalBetting

MikeK said:

Nigel Farage ‏@Nigel_Farage 10m10 minutes ago
I'll be on the @MarrShow at 9am. Tune in!

So Nigel will say (yet again)? "we discovered the chap was a bad un after we selected them and after we put him before the voters and after the voters choose UKIP at the ballot box....."

Nigel never learns from UKIP MEP selecting some rum coves. Ashley Mote (Nigel's personal selection in the South) is back in court.

stodge

Morning all

I have to say the "Green surge" hype is already looking ridiculous. We now have a Mosaic study based on social groups which shows not people who will vote Green but people who "could" vote Green (as though voting Green, or indeed for anyone else, can be worked down by such factors).

Rather like the LDs, the Greens will gave their pockets of strength and seats where they could do well but frankly I don't see them winning more than 1-2 seats at the very best which would only put them 1-2 seats behind where I think UKIP will be (albeit with many fewer votes).

I don't even know if the Greens will have a full slate of candidates in England, Wales and Scotland - I imagine (with the exception of Buckingham), the Conservatives, Labour and UKIP will and I expect the LDs will as well. Perhaps some wealthy individual with £633,000 to spare will find someone to stand in every seat to get themselves a place in the tv debates.

TCPoliticalBetting

Roger said:

....and maybe a poster of Cameron's 'waste tzar' Sir Philip Green whose Monegaque (for tax purposes) wife earned £350,000,000 last year on his yacht in Monaco complaining about Labour's 'mansion tax'.

Have you met them socially?

maaarsh

Marr repeatedly getting Richardson's name wrong.

NickPalmer

david_kendrick1 said:

I was out leafletting on behalf of my successor as PPC in Cherry Hinton yesterday morning. Patrick O'Flynn, complete with his Cambridge Utd scarf, was in good form. He is working hard.

The general point to note is that UKIP is a quantum deal better organised than even two years ago. This was not a general leaflet: it was dedicated to Cherry Hinton. He told me that he was leaving his best area, Arbury (the biggest council estate in Cambridge)--until nearer the GE.

I'm not claiming that UKIP's organisation is as silky smooth and well organised as the other parties. But it is no shambles.

That's right. But it's patchy (e.g. Broxtowe UKIP's website doesn't mention their PPC, even though they picked him months ago) and I don't get the impression that they actually have GOTV software operating. They are still using the human wave approach in the by-elections that I've seen, with lots of leafleters and door-knockers but no actuall collection of data.

foxinsoxuk said:

AndyJS said:

Interesting list. Virtually all of them are either London or university constituencies as you'd expect. Watford is the exception, where the Greens have had some success in local elections IIRC. I think Cambridge is the number one seat where the Greens are likely to deprive Labour of winning. One likely scenario there is a LD majority of 500 and a Green showing of about 5,000.

The University constituency focus could be the Greens Achilles heel. They need a good ground campaign to ensure those voters get registered, and I do not think that they have much time to get it organised.

I am not convinced that canvassing will convince many Green inclined to vote Labour. The rise in the Green poll seems largely to be due to dislike of Labour and Labours implausible cuts especially.

A strong Green vote in marginals is obviously unhelpful to Labour, not so much because it takes away Labour votes (polls suggest it doesn't) but that it offers an alternative Red Liberal home. I'm not convinced that it will happen - 2010 Greens are largely immovable, but the new ones seem very much open to persuasion to vote tacticlaly. In Cambridge in particular, we do expect to win, as the Red Liberal vote there is enormous and reportedly (I've not canvassed there myself) quite implacably determined to remove Huppert, not because of any personal dislike but because he's been a not especially rebellious Government MP.

TCPoliticalBetting

JackW said:

foxinsoxuk said:

JackW said:

foxinsoxuk said:

TGOHF said:

foxinsoxuk said:

JackW said:

AndyJS said:

Interesting list. Virtually all of them are either London or university constituencies as you'd expect. Watford is the exception, where the Greens have had some success in local elections IIRC. I think Cambridge is the number one seat where the Greens are likely to deprive Labour of winning. One likely scenario there is a LD majority of 500 and a Green showing of about 5,000.

Cambridge is one of the "JackW Dozen" seats and has moved firmly into the LibDem Hold column.

@rcs1000 has a contact in the constituency Labour party who now expects the seat to return Huppert.

Retaining the seat would be quite a coup. Huppert is 50/1 as next LD leader, and they could do much worse.

My local seat. Remember the Lab candidate is a NP style retread who came THIRD in 2010. Also caused a storm with some Nazi saluting in the last campaign.

Also Huppert is very popular locally - plus property prices and commuter influx is diminishing the grip of the academics and students on the seat.

Currently the LDs are polling less than 40% of 2010 votes, and for Huppert to retain the seat he would need to retain around 70% minimum of his 2010 voters, and for the others to split quite helpfully for him with Greens and Kippers helping wound his main rivals, having potential to be a 5 way marginal. He would have to play a blinder to do that, though I would be very happy for him to do so.

You're applying UNS to national polling and if the Ashcroft constituency polls tell us anything about LibDem seats it is the significant effect of incumbency.

Huppert only picked up the seat in 2010 and increased the majority. I'm increasingly of the view that he'll do a Farron/Lamb in the seat and comfortably hold on.

It would have to be one hell of an incumbency bonus to overcome UNS to that extent! If he does so then it would surely make 50/1 on him as next LD leader good value?

Indeed but not unusual for some first term LibDem MP's such as the afore mentioned Farron and Lamb.

The 50/1 would appear to be a good trading bet.

There is something odd about Huppert. If he was the Leader of the LDs the HoC would p themselves laughing.

Peter_the_Punter

The only constituency listed of which I have first-hand knowledge is Hampstead and Kilburn.

Labour have picked a very strong candidate to succeed The Blessed Glenda. I really don't see them losing this seat. The greens will of course have the formidable advantage of Young Robert Smithson canvassing for them, but I doubt even that will make the difference.

Labour thought they were going to lose this one last time, and would have if the Tories and LibDems had managed to organise some tactical voting, but in the event Young Glenda was able to slip through the middle.

Labour's odds are 1/4. Looks about right to me.

TCPoliticalBetting

stodge said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

tlg86 said:

Could the Andrew Marr show be any more blatantly left wing? I'm not sure who I dislike more, Stephanie Flanders or Peter Hain.

This is the impartial balanced bbc's idea for the two reviewing the papers with Marr. Three socialists together. 1 slept in the past with socialist blokes, 1 is a socialist Mp and the third used to sleep with anyone preferably socialists...

Perhaps the BBC couldn't find anyone on the Conservative side willing to get up on a Sunday morning ? All the Tory activists seem to be blogging on here.

When they do put a Conservative on they usually have 3 people on the sofa.

TheWatcher

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Roger said:

....and maybe a poster of Cameron's 'waste tzar' Sir Philip Green whose Monegaque (for tax purposes) wife earned £350,000,000 last year on his yacht in Monaco complaining about Labour's 'mansion tax'.

Have you met them socially?

Probably on a sojourn to Nice, to a sweet little bakers near the Croissette that makes delightful pastries for Roger.

FluffyThoughts

Every time I hear the name 'Stephanie Flanders' I think of a well - worn saddle. I blame Sid Barrett....

taffys

abour's odds are 1/4. Looks about right to me.

I'm sure the mansion tax proposals are going down well in that constituency...

david_kendrick1

JackW said:

david_kendrick1 said:

I was out leafletting on behalf of my successor as PPC in Cherry Hinton yesterday morning. Patrick O'Flynn, complete with his Cambridge Utd scarf, was in good form. He is working hard.

The general point to note is that UKIP is a quantum deal better organised than even two years ago. This was not a general leaflet: it was dedicated to Cherry Hinton. He told me that he was leaving his best area, Arbury (the biggest council estate in Cambridge)--until nearer the GE.

I'm not claiming that UKIP's organisation is as silky smooth and well organised as the other parties. But it is no shambles.

Thank you David, it's always interesting to hear constituency reports. Perhaps you might consider regularly reporting on the seat in the coming months?

Further, what is your own present appreciation of the likely result ?

I think that Huppert is deservedly hot favourite. Nobody in my group in the pub could remember the Tory's name, and the Lab candidate is widely regarded as 'weak'.

I was hoping to stand in S Cambs, my home seat: our PPC has just died. But UKIP is unforgiving of anybody they think has stepped out of line....

It is not just the Tories who think there may be a second GE relatively quickly. A string of strong second places sounds pointless with FPTP, but the following year...

taffys

Reading the wisdom poll in the Telegraph the tory boat would appear to be just edging ahead.

saddened

Roger said:

Expect to hear a lot about soup kitchens the bedroom tax and Osborne's promise to take welfare spending back to the 30's........

What a campaign!

Anything remotely positive to vote Labour for? Such poverty of thought and ambition will go a long way to explaining why ed will do so badly in May.

saddened

Roger said:

....and maybe a poster of Cameron's 'waste tzar' Sir Philip Green whose Monegaque (for tax purposes) wife earned £350,000,000 last year on his yacht in Monaco complaining about Labour's 'mansion tax'.

A comment like that would have considerably more impact of it wasn't coming from someone who is actively avoiding paying tax. It's just massively hypocritical coming from you.

JackW

TCPoliticalBetting said:

JackW said:

foxinsoxuk said:

JackW said:

foxinsoxuk said:

TGOHF said:

foxinsoxuk said:

JackW said:

AndyJS said:

Interesting list. Virtually all of them are either London or university constituencies as you'd expect. Watford is the exception, where the Greens have had some success in local elections IIRC. I think Cambridge is the number one seat where the Greens are likely to deprive Labour of winning. One likely scenario there is a LD majority of 500 and a Green showing of about 5,000.

Cambridge is one of the "JackW Dozen" seats and has moved firmly into the LibDem Hold column.

@rcs1000 has a contact in the constituency Labour party who now expects the seat to return Huppert.

Retaining the seat would be quite a coup. Huppert is 50/1 as next LD leader, and they could do much worse.

My local seat. Remember the Lab candidate is a NP style retread who came THIRD in 2010. Also caused a storm with some Nazi saluting in the last campaign.

Also Huppert is very popular locally - plus property prices and commuter influx is diminishing the grip of the academics and students on the seat.

Currently the LDs are polling less than 40% of 2010 votes, and for Huppert to retain the seat he would need to retain around 70% minimum of his 2010 voters, and for the others to split quite helpfully for him with Greens and Kippers helping wound his main rivals, having potential to be a 5 way marginal. He would have to play a blinder to do that, though I would be very happy for him to do so.

You're applying UNS to national polling and if the Ashcroft constituency polls tell us anything about LibDem seats it is the significant effect of incumbency.

Huppert only picked up the seat in 2010 and increased the majority. I'm increasingly of the view that he'll do a Farron/Lamb in the seat and comfortably hold on.

It would have to be one hell of an incumbency bonus to overcome UNS to that extent! If he does so then it would surely make 50/1 on him as next LD leader good value?

Indeed but not unusual for some first term LibDem MP's such as the afore mentioned Farron and Lamb.

The 50/1 would appear to be a good trading bet.

There is something odd about Huppert. If he was the Leader of the LDs the HoC would p themselves laughing.

Indeed, but that's hardly unusual for LibDem leaders who regularly are the object of mirth, disdain and scoff from other MP's.

JackW

david_kendrick1 said:

JackW said:

david_kendrick1 said:

I was out leafletting on behalf of my successor as PPC in Cherry Hinton yesterday morning. Patrick O'Flynn, complete with his Cambridge Utd scarf, was in good form. He is working hard.

The general point to note is that UKIP is a quantum deal better organised than even two years ago. This was not a general leaflet: it was dedicated to Cherry Hinton. He told me that he was leaving his best area, Arbury (the biggest council estate in Cambridge)--until nearer the GE.

I'm not claiming that UKIP's organisation is as silky smooth and well organised as the other parties. But it is no shambles.

Thank you David, it's always interesting to hear constituency reports. Perhaps you might consider regularly reporting on the seat in the coming months?

Further, what is your own present appreciation of the likely result ?

I think that Huppert is deservedly hot favourite. Nobody in my group in the pub could remember the Tory's name, and the Lab candidate is widely regarded as 'weak'.

I was hoping to stand in S Cambs, my home seat: our PPC has just died. But UKIP is unforgiving of anybody they think has stepped out of line....

It is not just the Tories who think there may be a second GE relatively quickly. A string of strong second places sounds pointless with FPTP, but the following year...

Thank you David.

Keep reporting please.

SquareRoot

The mere fact that "roger" has to come on here spouting about greens have to vote Labour shows exactly how much trouble Labour are in. Why should Greens vote Labour? What exactly is ED Miliband going to do for them? About the same as he has always done. Sweet Fanny Adams.

Morris_Dancer

I think Miliband proves that being seen as 'odd' doesn't necessarily stop one acquiring leadership of a party.

TheWatcher

FluffyThoughts said:

Every time I hear the name 'Stephanie Flanders' I think of a well - worn saddle. I blame Sid Barrett....

The Two Eds on a Tandem.

Pong

JackW said:

The 50/1 would appear to be a good trading bet.

By the same logic I'm on Jo Swinson for next LD leader @ ~45/1

If she can hold on, she'll definitely be in the running when Clegg gets knifed.

SquareRoot

Roger said:

....and maybe a poster of Cameron's 'waste tzar' Sir Philip Green whose Monegaque (for tax purposes) wife earned £350,000,000 last year on his yacht in Monaco complaining about Labour's 'mansion tax'.

What fun. The Tories could point out the hypocrisy of Ed Miliband in his mansion that was made via tax avoidance.

Peter_the_Punter

taffys said:

abour's odds are 1/4. Looks about right to me.

I'm sure the mansion tax proposals are going down well in that constituency...

If you fancy backing one of the other Parties, Taffy, I'll be happy to offer you better odds than you can get through oddschecker. The email address is arklebar@gmail.com

foxinsoxuk

david_kendrick1 said:

JackW said:

david_kendrick1 said:

I was out leafletting on behalf of my successor as PPC in Cherry Hinton yesterday morning. Patrick O'Flynn, complete with his Cambridge Utd scarf, was in good form. He is working hard.

The general point to note is that UKIP is a quantum deal better organised than even two years ago. This was not a general leaflet: it was dedicated to Cherry Hinton. He told me that he was leaving his best area, Arbury (the biggest council estate in Cambridge)--until nearer the GE.

I'm not claiming that UKIP's organisation is as silky smooth and well organised as the other parties. But it is no shambles.

Thank you David, it's always interesting to hear constituency reports. Perhaps you might consider regularly reporting on the seat in the coming months?

Further, what is your own present appreciation of the likely result ?

I think that Huppert is deservedly hot favourite. Nobody in my group in the pub could remember the Tory's name, and the Lab candidate is widely regarded as 'weak'.

I was hoping to stand in S Cambs, my home seat: our PPC has just died. But UKIP is unforgiving of anybody they think has stepped out of line....

It is not just the Tories who think there may be a second GE relatively quickly. A string of strong second places sounds pointless with FPTP, but the following year...

I agree about the likelihood of a second quick election, either in the autumn or 2016 (which may mean a double election in Scotland as an interesting side issue). So second place matters in FPTP, as a springboard for next time. Particularly so for a GE with so many wild cards.

I think this is going to be the most interesting election in decades. I have already booked the day off on Friday in preparation for an all nighter!