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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Saturday night GE2015 rolling polls news blog
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Saturday night GE2015 rolling polls news blog
With Opinium just out there’ve now been 7 polls since the Ashcroft CON 6% lead survey that was published on Monday afternoon and there’s been nothing from any of the firms that have has the blue team in anything like as good a position.
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Its at 15% from an all time high of 16% isn't it? Have I read it wrong?
Or is this the wrong graph?
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png
Ladar Levison, who ran Edward Snowden’s email account, said moves to allow government access to encrypted data would weaken safety online for everyone.
Ladar Levison, founder of the encrypted email service Lavabit, made his comments as Cameron lobbied Barack Obama to press US technology companies to give law enforcement greater access to encrypted communications, following the deadly attack on the Paris office of the magazine Charlie Hebdo.
http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/jan/16/david-cameron-encryption-lavabit-ladar-levison
Is it eight days until the Greeks vote?
Radical Islam in Europe: No One to Blame But Us:
Most of all, we failed to extend our hand of solidarity to those brave Muslim men and women who dared to defy the radical elements within their own communities.
The Western school systems have brought forth a generation that that, by taking the gifts of these freedoms for granted, has failed to learn how irregular in history they are, that the heavy price that was paid by generations gone by to secure them.
Instead of passing on this flame of enlightenment and freedom to the Muslim world, we have undermined it at home.
If we fail to stand up for our values, nobody else will.
Assuming, as currently appears likely, that Labour wins around 280-285 GE seats, they will be around 40-45 seats short of a majority, or around 35-40 seats after taking account of the non-voting NI MPs. Probably this can be trimmed by a further 2-3 seats by including the Plaid Cymru and Green MPs who are unlikely to oppose Labour in any confidence vote and the shortfall is therefore then reduced to approx 32-37 seats, pretty much exactly the number of seats the SNP are expected to win.
So that would appear to be Miliband's one shop solution, coalition wise, albeit through gritted teeth on both sides, especially were the LibDems to win only around 25 seats or fewer which might leave him with an uncomfortable 10 seat shortfall or thereabouts, were he to consider instead linking up with the Yellows.
I feel very much at ease therefore with my 25/1 bet with Ladbrokes on a Labour/SNP coalition, now on offer at 10/1.
Hence my comment concerning the attractions of selling the Tories at 280 seats with Sporting on the previous thread, subject of course to the usual DYOR caveat.
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2015/01/andrew-bower-the-encryption-ban-makes-us-look-like-the-thick-party.html
Andrew Bower works in the ‘Silicon Fen’, graduated in Computer Science from Cambridge University and has served as an Conservative Association officer.
This week the Prime Minister introduced a policy of banning strong encryption in the UK in order to deny terrorists ‘safe spaces’ in which to operate. Sounds robust, doesn’t it? In practice such a policy is impossible to implement and so would never yield any security benefit. It would, however, leave all of us vulnerable to trivial cyber-attacks and David Cameron’s vision of a Digital Britain in tatters.
Ed Miliband just been skewered by a student from Doncaster telling him lots of young people there are thinking of voting for UKIP :-)
Mr. Putney, just the one poll. Worth waiting for the others. And for a few months to pass.
even the "official" polls now have UKIP on 20% our private polling has them heading for 30% AND WILL CERTAINLY MATCH THE TORIES BEFORE MAY
Even I, a kipper, feel that this prophesy is an outlier.
Won't be long until we have our traditional chat about F1 spread-betting. Any early thoughts?
Mr. Pagan, the policy's demented but I don't think it'll have much (if any) electoral cost. It would if we had a media that knew the difference between an arse and an elbow.
However, UKIP's ceiling is 29% according to MORI (those who like the party) or 34% according to Com Res (those who'd seriously consider voting for the party). If UKIP hit those numbers, then the mould of British politics is broken.
He will know for 100% certain that the SNP will not vote against a Lab budget or a Lab confidence motion.
So why make concessions when you don't need to? Especially when it would generate very bad publicity - and cost a lot of support in England.
What level is 50/50?
19.5?
He is either going to look very very stupid in the end (I couldn't care less about this) or try and pass something that will be hugely damaging (which does concern me) or both. The concern is that Labour's record in power was littered with equally stupid law making, and it is much harder to repeal something than pass it, even if you are in charge.
There must be some senior Tories with some sort of computer science knowledge that realise what he keeping prattling on about is a terrible terrible idea.
Barring a last minute big event the result is mostly determined I believe, the seats though is a bit of a mystery since 2 parties are on the threshold, they could have a second election if there is no majority just like in 2012.
Well the SNP sided with the Tories in the confidence motion in 1979 to bring down the Callaghan Labour Government.
When we tell them that this policy means hackers, and foreign governments will have easy access to
Their medical records
Their tax records
Their bank accounts
Every email they write
Phone apps they like will either be banned or backdoored and made available to anyone that wants it
The company they work for will have all its internal information available to any competitor causing them to lose competitiveness
I think it will make them consider voting conservative to be a poor choice. Many of my colleagues have already started spreading the word.
He really should have his advisers shot, though. They must be bloody stupid.
according to http://www.contracteye.co.uk/it-professionals-record-eskills.shtml
It professionals are 4% of the uk workforce numbering over a million
even if only half of us evangelise about the buffoonery of the legislation and convince 3 other people of our view that will cost the tories 2 million votes
If ANEL fails to enter parliament and SYRIZA is just 1-2 MP's short of a majority then a second election is a strong possibility, there is a precedent from ND which forced 3 elections in 1 year in 1989-90 because they were just short of a majority and they kept forcing elections until they got one.
Remember Dave does meet a lot with the likes of Google execs and his friends work there, I think they will have been on the blower to tell him why he is being a total chump.
A backdoor however as history has repeatedly shown is just as convenient for the bad guys as the "good guys". Encrytption is what keeps us safe on the internet. Weakening it is disastrous
It is an unworkable and idiotic proposal.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-30794953
If they don't they usually find themselves replaced by a more amenable group of advisers.
As the mentality of government is that only people who have done something wrong should want to keep any secrets then the encryption ban is a 'natural' idea to government.
That is in essence why Cameron is talking action without knowing what he is talking about.
With Cameron, we aren't talking about Mrs T, were what she says goes (and I know plenty of people who have been on the whole end of that), it is Mr Tony Blair super-lite, that has already U-Turn'ed loads in this parliament.
Seriously, I doubt even 0.1% of people would mention it.
Cameron is not going to want money being stolen out of people's bank accounts. It's blindingly obvious that it will be sorted in some sensible way.
Con 33% (NC)
Lab 34% (NC)
LD 7% (-1)
UKIP 18% (NC)
Greens 3% (+1)
Others % (NC)
I am not alone in that endeavour amongst colleagues and it wasn't as a result of collusion between us but we found talking around the coffee machine that many of us either had done so or were intending to.
How much damage is it going to do?
Lab 34% (0)
Con 33% (0)
UKIP 18% (0)
LD 7% (-1)
Greens 3% (+1)
They have the knowledge how to encrypt stuff, should we ban them, or prohibit the teaching of certain sections of mathematics that is used in encryption?
You can't ban knowledge, terrorists are going to use it anyway for their own private needs, and I'm sure ISIS has it's own mathematicians.
You can ban companies from using encryption but terrorists can use their own encryption for their messages.
About as many people think that the Conservatives want to dismantle the NHS if they win the next election (41%) as think a Labour government would lead to economic chaos (42%).
· However, worryingly for the Labour leadership, in the wake of accusations that Ed Miliband said he wanted to “weaponise” the NHS, half of Britons (49%) think he is using the issue of the NHS for his political advantage, not because he cares about it. This includes one in five (19%) Labour voters.
http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2015/01/17/tory-party-more-favourably-regarded-than-labour/
All I am saying is this issue will not have any measurable impact on the GE.
I'm out for the night.
I doubt nearly half the country really and truly believe either. If it said 40% said NHS worse under Tories, and same for economy worse under Labour, I could buy that.
People were initially in favour of the principle, when they saw the actual implications of the policy, the popularity ended.
Tweedledum and Tweedledee.
The Tories are no hopers. Extremely rare polls putting them comfortably in the lead (and even then possibly not enough for a majority), able to level peg with some regularity (which would see a Labour win almost certainly), and with far more 'outliers' showing sizable Labour leads than the reverse. There's no way even Ed M is crap enough to overturn the deficit, hah, of opportunity the Tories currently have. Granted the favourability ratings seem to work out better for Cameron and his party, but will that actually materialise at election time? I cannot see it.
Also, with this being the rolling polls blog, or rolling polling blog, could we not call it the roly poly blog? Just me?
Current Lib Dems? Dear me..
cough....
#2-1nailedon
The only advantage you would have with the law is that you would spot when people were communicating by non-proprietary encryption software and therefore had something to hide. Sort of called traffic analysis - which was popular in the second world war whenever the Germans got one step ahead of us (thankfully not that often).
What price the Hat Trick?
LDs least favoured party....
Clegg even less favoured than his party. Akin to dog tu*d on shoe?
Now if the LDs mounted a coup against Clegg would they not have some upside?
A piece of cake to write software that will encrypt the message and secrete parts of it all over the place and then be able to rebuild them later for decryption.
Weakening encryption only means the law abiding won't be protected by it and provide entry points for the malicious
Conservatives -16 + -18 = -34
UKIP -22 + -25 = -47
Labour - 19 + =34 = -53
Not great looking numbers for Labour.
UKIP on the slide again, Peak Kipper was about 6.15pm this evening
Does @TGOHF have to do a kind of Winston Smith Ministry of Truth job when declaring "Peak Kipper" and chuck all the other Peak Kippers down the memory chute?
Phone: LD 41 Lab 24 Green 12 UKIP 10 Con 7
Online: LD 34 Lab 29 UKIP 15 Con 12 Green 6
Busy drowning my sorrows; next league match is ManU away, and they will want revenge for being spanked 5-3 by us in September. Only the fact that QPR, Burnley, Hull, Sunderland, Villa and Newcastle are really quite poor too is keeping it interesting at the bottom end.
One other consolation: Derby lost at home to a pisspoor Forest side.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Greek_legislative_election,_2015
No very clear recent trends, but the Syriza-N gap seems to be pretty consistent. PASOK possibly clawing a little back from the centre-left Potami.
The winner-takes-lots system that they have (giving a large bonus to whichever party gets most votes) is supposed to promote stability. They didn't think of the possibility that the winner would be the disputive element...
Nigel Pearson still has my support, but he sometimes makes incomprehensible decisions.
Comparing his goalscoring record to Nugent's is like comparing Aguero's to Dzeko..
They can't decide which one they'd like to risk least.