No very clear recent trends, but the Syriza-N gap seems to be pretty consistent. PASOK possibly clawing a little back from the centre-left Potami.
The winner-takes-lots system that they have (giving a large bonus to whichever party gets most votes) is supposed to promote stability. They didn't think of the possibility that the winner would be the disputive element...
Goes to show that loading the system doesn't necessarily work. As in "FPTP always produces a clear result"!
What you can't do is tell the electorate they've got it wrong and to try again. Politicians have to play the hand they're dealt.
No very clear recent trends, but the Syriza-N gap seems to be pretty consistent. PASOK possibly clawing a little back from the centre-left Potami.
The winner-takes-lots system that they have (giving a large bonus to whichever party gets most votes) is supposed to promote stability. They didn't think of the possibility that the winner would be the disputive element...
For a moment I thought the Greens were in a polling lead!
My Greek friends seem fairly confident that Syriza will not have enough to form a government, but they are mostly fairly right wing. One is rather too keen on Golden Dawn for my liking. No overseas votes for them, so they fly back to vote. Now that is commitment!
Greek politics is pretty raw, with a lot of memories of the civil war. My Golden Dawn sympathising friends grandfather escaped execution by the Communists in 1948 in a purge of landowners, because his tenants spoke of his kindness to them during the Nazi occupation. Get him on the subject of Syriza at your peril.
Mr. Putney, just the one poll. Worth waiting for the others. And for a few months to pass.
Morris - I'm not relying on this one poll in reaching my opinion but on the general trend, which as I said earlier shows the Tories in something of a rut. You can of course wait for as long as you care to but value, if correctly gauged initially, tends to erode seriously with the passage of time. This is demonstrated by my Lab/SNP coalition bet - placed at 25/1 and now shortened to 10/1.
Wish you the best of luck with that bet, Peter, but how would a Lab/SNP coalition work, exactly? That would involve declared nationalist separatists taking cabinet positions to manage UK-wide government departments. They can't take English (or mainly English) departments of Education, Health, Justice, Business or Transport.
Defence is risky: they'd want Trident scrapped. Miliband might be up for that, but there'd be a hell of a furore both inside and outside his party. They could take International Development, or Environment Food & Rural Affairs I suppose, with a couple of junior positions in the Treasury or Foreign Office perhaps, but would that be attractive enough for a coalition? And how would that square with their declared aim of Scottish Independence? Wouldn't it look a bit of a sell-out?
And Deputy PM Salmond? Please. He'd make it his mission to irritate the English so much they'd beg for Scotland to be cut lose. And it'd destroy the Labour party in England.
I think the Labour party know this as there are plenty who are already internally briefing and warning against such a move. If the numbers do stack up this way, I'd expect Labour to risk a minority on the basis that the SNP would be very unlikely to vote with the Tories to bring the government down on votes of confidence and key budgets.
They'd then probably negotiate a concession or two here and there to the SNP (perhaps on further constitutional reform and devolution, with extra funding) to ensure they didn't cause too much trouble.
Recent poll on spending cuts. Forgive me if this was posted already.
If you had to choose which of the following directions should the next government take?
Reduce government borrowing, at expense of public services: 24% Increase spending on public services, even if government borrowing increases: 32% Keep borrowing and spending about the same as now: 29% Don't know: 15%
That's only a QUARTER of the public agreeing with more cuts, and 32% taking a more left-wing position than me by wanting to INCREASE spending further (I'd be happy if it was just kept broadly the same with no more cuts).
Some seem to think that its all over for the Conservatives but with favourability ratings as above, an improving economy with more jobs being created than anywhere in Europe, the crisis in Greece and the Eurozone , and the stark choice between David Cameron and Ed Miliband for Prime Minister it is 'events' that will decide and it is possible the results may just surprise everyone, who knows.
It's a sorry state of affairs for the GOP if on the third time around, a poorly performing Romney is still the best they can do.
I think it is sad state of affairs all round if it ends up Clinton vs Romney or Clinton vs Bush. Are there no other politicians that the parties will endorse besides those called Clinton or Bush and/or are a total moron?
Recent poll on spending cuts. Forgive me if this was posted already.
If you had to choose which of the following directions should the next government take?
Reduce government borrowing, at expense of public services: 24% Increase spending on public services, even if government borrowing increases: 32% Keep borrowing and spending about the same as now: 29% Don't know: 15%
That's only a QUARTER of the public agreeing with more cuts, and 32% taking a more left-wing position than me by wanting to INCREASE spending further (I'd be happy if it was just kept broadly the same with no more cuts).
Well, yeah - borrowing more looks more painless and something-for-nothing. Always going to have a lot of support.
Public choice theory, ain't it? Private benefit to the individual and their family (no higher taxes, no spending cuts), cost falls to some unknown and undetermined future taxpayers. Hopefully. Could be oneself, but let's not think about that too much.
Same issue existed in the financial sector trading CDOs etc in the 2004-2007 period. Keeping the borrowing and swaps running gave immediate benefit to all actors. Even if they suspected what was coming - and they weren't stupid people and thee were plenty of warning signals, as Nate Silver said in "The Signal and the Noise" '... they didn't want the music to stop'.
Who ever does?
I wonder what polls of the public would have said about continuing with CDOs and leveraging - which was providing so much apparent wealth - in 2006?
No very clear recent trends, but the Syriza-N gap seems to be pretty consistent. PASOK possibly clawing a little back from the centre-left Potami.
The winner-takes-lots system that they have (giving a large bonus to whichever party gets most votes) is supposed to promote stability. They didn't think of the possibility that the winner would be the disputive element...
For a moment I thought the Greens were in a polling lead!
My Greek friends seem fairly confident that Syriza will not have enough to form a government, but they are mostly fairly right wing. One is rather too keen on Golden Dawn for my liking. No overseas votes for them, so they fly back to vote. Now that is commitment!
Greek politics is pretty raw, with a lot of memories of the civil war. My Golden Dawn sympathising friends grandfather escaped execution by the Communists in 1948 in a purge of landowners, because his tenants spoke of his kindness to them during the Nazi occupation. Get him on the subject of Syriza at your peril.
Yes, I heard the other side of the same story, telling a Communist Greek friend of my Tory parents' amiable tolerance of my Communism as a teenager. He said sadly, "It sounds beautiful, but it would never happen in Greece - my grandparents' generation were used to settling politics by killing each other. We have stopped killing, but the divisions remain."
Incidentally, for those who share my interest in 1930s/1940s central Europe (in my case because my mother grew up in Danzig/Gdansk), I recommend David Downing's "Station" series of novels on a German-American family - there are I think a few cultural mistakes but mostly it rings true, as the characters uneasily pluck their way through the terrors of the time, with moments of total peace amid the chaos. Alan Furst (who specialises in the late 30s) is a slightly more atmospheric writer, but Downing has the better plots. He also wrote an alternative history based on the Germans taking Moscow which I've seen recommended here - I ought it the other day but haven't read it yet.
No very clear recent trends, but the Syriza-ND gap seems to be pretty consistent. PASOK possibly clawing a little back from the centre-left Potami.
The winner-takes-lots system that they have (giving a large bonus to whichever party gets most votes) is supposed to promote stability. They didn't think of the possibility that the winner would be the disputive element...
If they were about 10 seats short of a majority who would likely coalition partners be?
Potami are a possibility - much more moderate but nnoetheless new so no baggage or reluctance to turn their backs on policy they he,lped formulate. Not ND and PASOK, for the opposite reason, not the Communist KKE, who are of the exclusive we-hate-leftist-deviationists tradition, and not the neo-Nazi Golden Dawn. Just conceivably the conservative but anti-austerity ANEL, or Papandeou's Kinima, perhaps? Others may know more!
Thanks for providing an interesting insight on the potential coalition partners. So there are certainly a few options available to Syriza should they fail to achieve a majority.
I think it is sad state of affairs all round if it ends up Clinton vs Romney or Clinton vs Bush. Are there no other politicians that the parties will endorse besides those called Clinton or Bush and/or are a total moron?
I think it's shaping up to be a decent enough Republican field. Unlike last time where you had the bum of the month club turning up to debate Romney, shoot up in the polls and crash down again by being awful. When Rick Santorum's finishing second and Herman Cain was a serious candidate (for about a week) you need to take a long hard look at yourselves.
This time each wing of the party has a perfectly respectable standard bearer rather than a total wingnut. Bush is the establishment moderate, something which Romney also aims to be but with a few more conservative notes. Christie has his issues, but is still a very capable populist (and also fairly moderate). Huckabee, who was impressive in 2008 and looks to be going again is a guy on the religious right who doesn't immediately make you wish they'd get on with the rapture just to shut him up. Mark Rubio is pretty impressive, Hispanic and more moderate than his initial flirtation with the Tea Party would suggest. Ted Cruz is a genuine nutter, but will likely falter as he's unpopular outside those who love him.
The really interesting one is Rand Paul, because it's the first time that the hard right of the party, outside the establishment have had a contender who's smart and actually has some crossover appeal. Previously the guys who wanted to slash the state were numpties like Rick Perry who could barely count- Paul can probably can explain why he thinks it's a good idea and win a debate without sounding like he wants to go back to the 18th Century.
In addition there's Scott Brown - popular Senator from a blue state. The Republican field is very strong, it's just going to be hard to beat Hillary. Plus I wouldn't take too much notice of head-to-head polls as they'll automatically favour those with huge initial name recognition outside their states. At this stage in 2007, Obama probably would've been trounced in a hypothetical match-up with John McCain - because few who weren't interested in politics outside Illinois particularly knew what he was about.
Hillary will evidently be formidable, but if they pick the right person and can paint her candidacy as the corrupt establishment clinging on rather than an historic moment for women, they might have a chance.
Recent poll on spending cuts. Forgive me if this was posted already.
If you had to choose which of the following directions should the next government take?
Reduce government borrowing, at expense of public services: 24% Increase spending on public services, even if government borrowing increases: 32% Keep borrowing and spending about the same as now: 29% Don't know: 15%
That's only a QUARTER of the public agreeing with more cuts, and 32% taking a more left-wing position than me by wanting to INCREASE spending further (I'd be happy if it was just kept broadly the same with no more cuts).
People don't like cuts forecast or cuts being made - but once they've been made and the benefits seen they usually support the political party that made them
The ICM guy who was I think the only one in the articles linked yesterday to quote numbers, was saying Labour 30%, Tories 33%. It seems that is another pollster who thinks Labour's % is going to continue to drop and hit pretty much the absolute core level, while the Tories unable to really pick up more than 35%.
It's a sorry state of affairs for the GOP if on the third time around, a poorly performing Romney is still the best they can do.
Excepting third-party candidates, for whom losing is the norm, the only losing Presidential candidate I've heard of who went on to win the nomination a second time is Nixon. Have there been any others?
Britain Elects @britainelects 3m3 minutes ago YouGov's Peter Kellner predicts David Cameron's Tories are to remain the largest party following May's general election. (Sunday Times)
Britain Elects @britainelects 2m2 minutes ago Mr Kellner also suggests despite being the largest party, he could be 'outflanked' by a LAB-SNP coalition.
No very clear recent trends, but the Syriza-N gap seems to be pretty consistent. PASOK possibly clawing a little back from the centre-left Potami.
The winner-takes-lots system that they have (giving a large bonus to whichever party gets most votes) is supposed to promote stability. They didn't think of the possibility that the winner would be the disputive element...
For a moment I thought the Greens were in a polling lead!
My Greek friends seem fairly confident that Syriza will not have enough to form a government, but they are mostly fairly right wing. One is rather too keen on Golden Dawn for my liking. No overseas votes for them, so they fly back to vote. Now that is commitment!
Greek politics is pretty raw, with a lot of memories of the civil war. My Golden Dawn sympathising friends grandfather escaped execution by the Communists in 1948 in a purge of landowners, because his tenants spoke of his kindness to them during the Nazi occupation. Get him on the subject of Syriza at your peril.
Yes, I heard the other side of the same story, telling a Communist Greek friend of my Tory parents' amiable tolerance of my Communism as a teenager. He said sadly, "It sounds beautiful, but it would never happen in Greece - my grandparents' generation were used to settling politics by killing each other. We have stopped killing, but the divisions remain."
Discussing with my Greek friends, the civil war devastated the countryside, with bands of roaming Nationalist and Communist partisans sporadically murdering civilians that they suspected of supporting the other side.
As such a lot of inland Greece depopulated to the cities, where the anonymity gave some protection. The Nationalists kept the military and civil service to their own supporters, leaving the scraps to the Communist supporters. This accounts for a lot of the fairly shoddy building in Greek suburbs, and also part of the reluctance to pay tax. You do not financially support your oppressors.
It's amazing that 6 out of the 7 Premier League games played today were won by the away side.
Seeing Leicester City's starting 11 (all playing in the Championship last season, with 2 strikers who have scored 3 goals between them this season), I can account for 1 of them!
Busy drowning my sorrows; next league match is ManU away, and they will want revenge for being spanked 5-3 by us in September. Only the fact that QPR, Burnley, Hull, Sunderland, Villa and Newcastle are really quite poor too is keeping it interesting at the bottom end.
One other consolation: Derby lost at home to a pisspoor Forest side.
Isn't it time to stop examining polls which simply cannot cope and start wondering why the Swansea City manager is a judge on The Voice. Is this affecting their form?
I was surprised to see Alan Hansen in the new series of Broadchurch.
THE Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg is being “airbrushed” from his party’s election campaign by his own MPs, research by the Tories reveals.
Clegg’s photograph was used in just 3% of Lib Dem election leaflets produced between May last year and this month, and he is mentioned by name in less than 2%.
Bought Arsenal corners squared at 30, they will be chasing the game and will throw men forward, with the pace they have I think they will get at least six corners.
THE Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg is being “airbrushed” from his party’s election campaign by his own MPs, research by the Tories reveals.
Clegg’s photograph was used in just 3% of Lib Dem election leaflets produced between May last year and this month, and he is mentioned by name in less than 2%.
Incidentally, for those who share my interest in 1930s/1940s central Europe (in my case because my mother grew up in Danzig/Gdansk), I recommend David Downing's "Station" series of novels on a German-American family - there are I think a few cultural mistakes but mostly it rings true, as the characters uneasily pluck their way through the terrors of the time, with moments of total peace amid the chaos. Alan Furst (who specialises in the late 30s) is a slightly more atmospheric writer, but Downing has the better plots. He also wrote an alternative history based on the Germans taking Moscow which I've seen recommended here - I ought it the other day but haven't read it yet.
I picked this up in kindle daily deals for 99p a week or two back:
THE Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg is being “airbrushed” from his party’s election campaign by his own MPs, research by the Tories reveals.
Clegg’s photograph was used in just 3% of Lib Dem election leaflets produced between May last year and this month, and he is mentioned by name in less than 2%.
All they need to do now is avoid using the name "LibDem" and they might have a chance.
THE Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg is being “airbrushed” from his party’s election campaign by his own MPs, research by the Tories reveals.
Clegg’s photograph was used in just 3% of Lib Dem election leaflets produced between May last year and this month, and he is mentioned by name in less than 2%.
The Lib Dem candidate for the Rochester and Strood by-election turned down Nick Clegg's offer of turning up to campaign for him. He thought it might harm his chances. Chances of what I am not sure, beating the Loonies, maybe.
Tittle tattle from one of the grumpiest former members of the Labour cabinet,
"Former Labour Home Secretary Charles Clarke is said to have called Ed Miliband ‘entirely useless’ and claimed he is leading Labour to Election defeat.
The withering comments are reported to have been made at a BBC cocktail party in Westminster last week, hosted by Andrew Marr and attended by senior Labour and Tory politicians."
While Jim Murphy, the new Scottish Labour leader, has enjoyed a high profile in recent weeks, he trails heavily behind the new first minister Nicola Sturgeon in terms of approval ratings on -12 points compared with +10. Miliband’s Scottish approval rating, at -46 is even worse than Cameron’s (-42).
Incidentally, for those who share my interest in 1930s/1940s central Europe (in my case because my mother grew up in Danzig/Gdansk), I recommend David Downing's "Station" series of novels on a German-American family - there are I think a few cultural mistakes but mostly it rings true, as the characters uneasily pluck their way through the terrors of the time, with moments of total peace amid the chaos. Alan Furst (who specialises in the late 30s) is a slightly more atmospheric writer, but Downing has the better plots. He also wrote an alternative history based on the Germans taking Moscow which I've seen recommended here - I ought it the other day but haven't read it yet.
According to the Sunday Times, John Swinney is going to revise his Land and Buildings Transaction Tax to be more like George Osborne's stamp duty changes
Incidentally, for those who share my interest in 1930s/1940s central Europe (in my case because my mother grew up in Danzig/Gdansk), I recommend David Downing's "Station" series of novels on a German-American family - there are I think a few cultural mistakes but mostly it rings true, as the characters uneasily pluck their way through the terrors of the time, with moments of total peace amid the chaos. Alan Furst (who specialises in the late 30s) is a slightly more atmospheric writer, but Downing has the better plots. He also wrote an alternative history based on the Germans taking Moscow which I've seen recommended here - I ought it the other day but haven't read it yet.
The Moscow Option is very good. I hope you enjoy it.
There is a LOL funny story about Ed in Daily Mail hit job,
My nine and a half weeks of Calamity Ed: Political kingmaker reveals he was aghast at the bumbling oddball he agreed to turn into an MP in a book that will rock Labour
Martin Winter's new memoir is a devastating indictment of Labour leader. Former Mayor of Doncaster took Miliband into his family home in 2005. During nine week period, the future leader almost set himself alight. Also bought Winter prayer mat to cover scorch marks to his office carpet. Amid farce, makes shocking confession to his host about his knowledge of the UK's crumbling economy prior to 2008 crash.
ED SETS FIRE TO HIMSELF…
For some reason he has moved a convection heater, which stands on two bricks, into the middle of the room. It is melting through the synthetic carpet, releasing toxic chemicals into the room.
‘For Christ’s sake, get out!’ I shout, but he’s not listening – he’s lethargic. ‘Get out!’ I shout. ‘You’ll kill yourself.’
I kick the convection heater on to its back and reveal a large hole burnt through both the carpet and its underlay.
I grab his chair, swing it round and drive it towards the door.
As the chair’s feet hit the threshold, the chair stops dead, catapulting Ed on to the veranda. He’s dazed.
...............
Carolyne’s ‘present’ is a small rug, which Ed says she can use to put over the ‘accident-damaged’ hole in my office carpet. To us, it looks suspiciously like a prayer mat. (Subsequently, we are told it is indeed an Islamic prayer mat, with special padding for the elderly or infirm.). Rather than treat the prayer mat disrespectfully, we store it with some of our other cherished possessions. Can anyone imagine Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, John Smith, Margaret Thatcher or John Major making that kind of mistake? Exactly.
According to the Sunday Times, John Swinney is going to revise his Land and Buildings Transaction Tax to be more like George Osborne's stamp duty changes
Do you enjoy trolling Nats or kippers more btw ^_P
According to the Sunday Times, John Swinney is going to revise his Land and Buildings Transaction Tax to be more like George Osborne's stamp duty changes
Do you enjoy trolling Nats or kippers more btw ^_P
According to the Sunday Times, John Swinney is going to revise his Land and Buildings Transaction Tax to be more like George Osborne's stamp duty changes
Do you enjoy trolling Nats or kippers more btw ^_P
To be prosaic, mundane and statistical, how about a "spread".
"A strawclutch of outliers" ?
An Army of outliers.
* Army is the collective noun for Herrings, which are Kippers....
Are you joining the Peoples Army, MarkHopkins?
No.
Although Cameron's futile attempt to ban encryption (the US tried this before, it was a farce), does seem to be his attempt to find a demographic he hasn't p***ed off yet.
Btw the Ashcroft outlier from last week probably makes the polling average more accurate - Nate Silver describes the effect in his latest blog post. Outliers are important, and its important that our pollsters don't change methodology to "herd" as the GE approaches.
John Rentoul @JohnRentoul 3h3 hours ago "Britain’s relationship with the USA should not be so close." Agree 29%, disagree 52%. ComRes for @IndyOnSunday
No very clear recent trends, but the Syriza-N gap seems to be pretty consistent. PASOK possibly clawing a little back from the centre-left Potami.
The winner-takes-lots system that they have (giving a large bonus to whichever party gets most votes) is supposed to promote stability. They didn't think of the possibility that the winner would be the disputive element...
For a moment I thought the Greens were in a polling lead!
My Greek friends seem fairly confident that Syriza will not have enough to form a government, but they are mostly fairly right wing. One is rather too keen on Golden Dawn for my liking. No overseas votes for them, so they fly back to vote. Now that is commitment!
Greek politics is pretty raw, with a lot of memories of the civil war. My Golden Dawn sympathising friends grandfather escaped execution by the Communists in 1948 in a purge of landowners, because his tenants spoke of his kindness to them during the Nazi occupation. Get him on the subject of Syriza at your peril.
Yes, I heard the other side of the same story, telling a Communist Greek friend of my Tory parents' amiable tolerance of my Communism as a teenager. He said sadly, "It sounds beautiful, but it would never happen in Greece - my grandparents' generation were used to settling politics by killing each other. We have stopped killing, but the divisions remain."
Discussing with my Greek friends, the civil war devastated the countryside, with bands of roaming Nationalist and Communist partisans sporadically murdering civilians that they suspected of supporting the other side.
As such a lot of inland Greece depopulated to the cities, where the anonymity gave some protection. The Nationalists kept the military and civil service to their own supporters, leaving the scraps to the Communist supporters. This accounts for a lot of the fairly shoddy building in Greek suburbs, and also part of the reluctance to pay tax. You do not financially support your oppressors.
An interesting book about that period is "A New Kind of War" by Anthony Price. The introduction to the main characters is interesting when you consider this was written back in the '80s. That it brings into focus the history of Greece back in the middle to late '40s is eye opening to what is happening there today. Anyone remember "Scobiemas"?
Comments
What you can't do is tell the electorate they've got it wrong and to try again. Politicians have to play the hand they're dealt.
My Greek friends seem fairly confident that Syriza will not have enough to form a government, but they are mostly fairly right wing. One is rather too keen on Golden Dawn for my liking. No overseas votes for them, so they fly back to vote. Now that is commitment!
Greek politics is pretty raw, with a lot of memories of the civil war. My Golden Dawn sympathising friends grandfather escaped execution by the Communists in 1948 in a purge of landowners, because his tenants spoke of his kindness to them during the Nazi occupation. Get him on the subject of Syriza at your peril.
Defence is risky: they'd want Trident scrapped. Miliband might be up for that, but there'd be a hell of a furore both inside and outside his party. They could take International Development, or Environment Food & Rural Affairs I suppose, with a couple of junior positions in the Treasury or Foreign Office perhaps, but would that be attractive enough for a coalition? And how would that square with their declared aim of Scottish Independence? Wouldn't it look a bit of a sell-out?
And Deputy PM Salmond? Please. He'd make it his mission to irritate the English so much they'd beg for Scotland to be cut lose. And it'd destroy the Labour party in England.
I think the Labour party know this as there are plenty who are already internally briefing and warning against such a move. If the numbers do stack up this way, I'd expect Labour to risk a minority on the basis that the SNP would be very unlikely to vote with the Tories to bring the government down on votes of confidence and key budgets.
They'd then probably negotiate a concession or two here and there to the SNP (perhaps on further constitutional reform and devolution, with extra funding) to ensure they didn't cause too much trouble.
If you had to choose which of the following directions should the next government take?
Reduce government borrowing, at expense of public services: 24%
Increase spending on public services, even if government borrowing increases: 32%
Keep borrowing and spending about the same as now: 29%
Don't know: 15%
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/01/14/voters-prefer-spending-services-cutting-borrowing/
That's only a QUARTER of the public agreeing with more cuts, and 32% taking a more left-wing position than me by wanting to INCREASE spending further (I'd be happy if it was just kept broadly the same with no more cuts).
Evening all, for those who would like to play, the Greece election game is now out:
http://www.electiongame.co.uk/greece15/
Game includes links for opinion polls and party/general background, plus Greek media sources.
Also available is Leaders & Finance 2015:
http://www.electiongame.co.uk/2015-leaders-finance/
Entries for both games close 7pm next Saturday.
Many thanks,
DC
Romney: 43%
Clinton: 52%
Bush: 40%
http://www.democracycorps.com/National-Surveys/its-the-democrats-turn-first-steps-on-the-road-back/
It's a sorry state of affairs for the GOP if on the third time around, a poorly performing Romney is still the best they can do.
Should the voting age be lowered to 16? Those in England and Wales think...
Yes - 25%
No - 66%
(via Panelbase)
Not a huge issue, obviously, but maybe worth the Conservatives drawing attention to Labour's very unpopular policy.
http://www.newsweek.com/2015/01/30/why-hitchcocks-horrifying-holocaust-film-was-never-shown-300235.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Con 31%, Lab 32%, LD 7%, UKIP 18%, Greens 7%
Public choice theory, ain't it? Private benefit to the individual and their family (no higher taxes, no spending cuts), cost falls to some unknown and undetermined future taxpayers. Hopefully. Could be oneself, but let's not think about that too much.
Same issue existed in the financial sector trading CDOs etc in the 2004-2007 period. Keeping the borrowing and swaps running gave immediate benefit to all actors. Even if they suspected what was coming - and they weren't stupid people and thee were plenty of warning signals, as Nate Silver said in "The Signal and the Noise" '... they didn't want the music to stop'.
Who ever does?
I wonder what polls of the public would have said about continuing with CDOs and leveraging - which was providing so much apparent wealth - in 2006?
46% think most British Muslims share British values, 46% think only a minority do
42% of people think most British Muslims are well integrated, 50% think only a minority
53% think it was right for Charlie Hebdo to put a cartoon of Prophet Mohammed on front cover this week
72% thought Charlie Hebdo decision to publish prophet cartoon would increase chance of further terror attacks
31% think Cameron should hold fast and refuse to take part in TV debates, 52% think he should take part
This week it is 16%
Yougov's Peter Kellner predicts Cameron is on course to lead largest party following May’s general election
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B7lSd8uCIAACOxo.jpg
YouGov's Peter Kellner predicts David Cameron's Tories are to remain the largest party following May's general election.
(Sunday Times)
Britain Elects @britainelects 2m2 minutes ago
Mr Kellner also suggests despite being the largest party, he could be 'outflanked' by a LAB-SNP coalition.
As such a lot of inland Greece depopulated to the cities, where the anonymity gave some protection. The Nationalists kept the military and civil service to their own supporters, leaving the scraps to the Communist supporters. This accounts for a lot of the fairly shoddy building in Greek suburbs, and also part of the reluctance to pay tax. You do not financially support your oppressors.
Ex SAS soldier to fight for UKIP in Hereford http://www.herefordtimes.com/news/local/11731103.Ex_SAS_soldier_to_fight_for_UKIP_in_Hereford/?ref=twtrec …
Similar tragedies occurred in camps in South Africa, and during the American Civil War.
If anyone can get on, can you get me on?
THE Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg is being “airbrushed” from his party’s election campaign by his own MPs, research by the Tories reveals.
Clegg’s photograph was used in just 3% of Lib Dem election leaflets produced between May last year and this month, and he is mentioned by name in less than 2%.
http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/aw/d/B006ZYPZAA/ref=mp_s_a_1_1?qid=1421531915&sr=8-1&pi=AC_SX110_SY165
The first few chapters are interesting scene setting. The later ones are really for military aficianados, but well written.
SNP 41%
Labour 31%
Conservatives 14%
Ukip 7%
Lib Dems 3%
Others 3%
(Panelbase. 1,007 voters. January 9th-14th)
Sunday Times Scottish seats forecast:
SNP 35 (+29)
Labour 20 (-20)
Conservatives 2 (+1)
Lib Dems 2 (-9)
(Panelbase. 1,007 voters. Jan 9-14)
SNP 41% -4%
Labour 31% +3
Conservatives 14% -1
Ukip 7% +0
Libdems 3% +0
And 7% in Scotland is pretty amazing.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2914839/Two-Eds-hid-truth-global-crash-Miliband-Balls-knew-UK-economy-fall-cliff-year-happened-kept-secret.html
#outliers
"Former Labour Home Secretary Charles Clarke is said to have called Ed Miliband ‘entirely useless’ and claimed he is leading Labour to Election defeat.
The withering comments are reported to have been made at a BBC cocktail party in Westminster last week, hosted by Andrew Marr and attended by senior Labour and Tory politicians."
While Jim Murphy, the new Scottish Labour leader, has enjoyed a high profile in recent weeks, he trails heavily behind the new first minister Nicola Sturgeon in terms of approval ratings on -12 points compared with +10. Miliband’s Scottish approval rating, at -46 is even worse than Cameron’s (-42).
https://twitter.com/ukelections2015
First MEP to visit new migrant camp in Calais, - Steven Woolfe MEP, UKIP Spokesman on Migration and Financial Affairs http://www.stevenwoolfe.uk/1/post/2015/01/the-first-mep-to-visit-the-new-migrant-camp-in-calais-built-with-eur3m-eu-subsidy.html …
An Army of outliers.
* Army is the collective noun for Herrings, which are Kippers....
According to the Sunday Times, John Swinney is going to revise his Land and Buildings Transaction Tax to be more like George Osborne's stamp duty changes
My nine and a half weeks of Calamity Ed: Political kingmaker reveals he was aghast at the bumbling oddball he agreed to turn into an MP in a book that will rock Labour
Martin Winter's new memoir is a devastating indictment of Labour leader. Former Mayor of Doncaster took Miliband into his family home in 2005. During nine week period, the future leader almost set himself alight. Also bought Winter prayer mat to cover scorch marks to his office carpet. Amid farce, makes shocking confession to his host about his knowledge of the UK's crumbling economy prior to 2008 crash.
ED SETS FIRE TO HIMSELF…
For some reason he has moved a convection heater, which stands on two bricks, into the middle of the room. It is melting through the synthetic carpet, releasing toxic chemicals into the room.
‘For Christ’s sake, get out!’ I shout, but he’s not listening – he’s lethargic. ‘Get out!’ I shout. ‘You’ll kill yourself.’
I kick the convection heater on to its back and reveal a large hole burnt through both the carpet and its underlay.
I grab his chair, swing it round and drive it towards the door.
As the chair’s feet hit the threshold, the chair stops dead, catapulting Ed on to the veranda. He’s dazed.
...............
Carolyne’s ‘present’ is a small rug, which Ed says she can use to put over the ‘accident-damaged’ hole in my office carpet. To us, it looks suspiciously like a prayer mat. (Subsequently, we are told it is indeed an Islamic prayer mat, with special padding for the elderly or infirm.). Rather than treat the prayer mat disrespectfully, we store it with some of our other cherished possessions. Can anyone imagine Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, John Smith, Margaret Thatcher or John Major making that kind of mistake? Exactly.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2914876/Bombshell-memoir-Miliband-s-former-ally-reveals-Ed-set-fire-carpet-bought-prayer-mat-cover-asked-think-brother-better-looking-me.html
https://twitter.com/igwalker
http://www.iangwalker.co.uk/
http://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/Tributes-paid-UKIP-s-exceptional-politician/story-25861942-detail/story.html
Labour has two-point lead in YouGov poll in Sun on Sunday. Lab 33, C 31, Ukip 13, LD 7, G 7. But it reveals lots more interesting stuff.
No.
Although Cameron's futile attempt to ban encryption (the US tried this before, it was a farce), does seem to be his attempt to find a demographic he hasn't p***ed off yet.
This week's YouGov UKIP Average is now 15.5%
Btw the Ashcroft outlier from last week probably makes the polling average more accurate - Nate Silver describes the effect in his latest blog post. Outliers are important, and its important that our pollsters don't change methodology to "herd" as the GE approaches.
Get on!
John Rentoul @JohnRentoul 3h3 hours ago
"Britain’s relationship with the USA should not be so close." Agree 29%, disagree 52%. ComRes for @IndyOnSunday