However, it does seem odd that there don't even in London seem to be alternatives to either mass market PC stores with uninformed assistants or little one-man outfits where they offer to assemble you a customised desktop. Can anyone recommend somewhere (preferably North London) to get a sensible discussion?
What I'm after, by the way, is a laptop that will play games that comes out now and over the next year or two - e.g. my current computer won't play Dragon Age's newest release. I reckon that graphics card, RAM and speed are the main issues.
And yes, yes, I need to concentrate on the election. But voters don't like being pestered after 8pm...
I try to buy my computers from John Lewis' range if possible. They offer a 2 year warranty, and their assistants do seem to have some idea about the stock. That said, I've usually decided what I want to buy before going there. :-)
I reckon Awith ALienware you're paying a fair premium for the fancy lit up keys etc. If you are spending over a grand I'd expect a 970 or 980 GTX, not an 860 which is all the Alienware seem to be offering.
At the time I bought my son's the one I bought had as good as spec as any others I found for the price. What they are like now I have no idea as I don't visit dell's website very often. The clincher for me however was I managed to get them to throw in two years on site support for free which as my son would be off at uni and not that easy for me to get there to sort out any issues was important to me.
I mentioned it merely because he has been very pleased with the performance of it over the years and it seems a well made piece of kit unlike a lot of laptops you see. Little things like filters you can remove for cleaning without dismantling the thing go a long way (spoken as one who has had to almost completely dismantle a laptop in the past when the filters needed attention).
Eighteen weeks now since the Rotherham report and still no government action.
While the plods much publicized 'day of reckoning' with its 'wave after wave of arrests' doesn't seem to have occurred either.
Is that because it was nothing more than an attempt to convince the media that the plods were taking some action, something which was stopped by people higher up the command chain, or perhaps some other reason ?
Whatever, it is surely worthy of a little investigation by Policing Minister Mike Penning ?
But then all those media reports of South Yorkshire plods collaborating with child rapists would be worthy of government investigation as well I should have thought.
Perhaps the government could ask Fiona Wolff or Lady Butler-Sloss to head an investigation ?
Have you not accepted the fact that there will never be any action over that? Actions cost votes.
Except there is.
If people had bothered to read/watch the news.
subsidies for kebab shops ?
KYC courses for taxi drivers ?
plods get training for the difference between right and wrong ?
An IPCC investigation.
An NCA operation
Bringing in specialists to run Rotherham's Child Services/Protection department.
Supporting councils in courts who take out injunctions against suspected Groomers going anywhere children whom they aren't related to.
zzzzz
activity, not action. Sir Humphrey gives the appaearance that something is being done.
Come back when there are arrests and convictions and half the plods and civil servants have been sacked.
Just google operation stovewood.
You remind me of Ed Balls.
It's the wrong type of growth/activity/action
you remind me of Gerry Adams and his approach to his own little problem.
When there are convictions come back and tell us all how wonderful things are. Currently the nation's leadership has decided to kick this in to the long grass like Hillsborough or Iraq.
The police force that could round up the BBC when visiting Cliff Richard appears remarkably reticent when presented with 1400 witnesses.
Still believe what you will.
I believe what happened in Rotherham and elsewhere shames this country and damages it, like the Catholic Church, there appears to be a desire to protect the institutions and not the victims.
I reckon Awith ALienware you're paying a fair premium for the fancy lit up keys etc. If you are spending over a grand I'd expect a 970 or 980 GTX, not an 860 which is all the Alienware seem to be offering.
At the time I bought my son's the one I bought had as good as spec as any others I found for the price. What they are like now I have no idea as I don't visit dell's website very often. The clincher for me however was I managed to get them to throw in two years on site support for free which as my son would be off at uni and not that easy for me to get there to sort out any issues was important to me.
I mentioned it merely because he has been very pleased with the performance of it over the years and it seems a well made piece of kit unlike a lot of laptops you see. Little things like filters you can remove for cleaning without dismantling the thing go a long way (spoken as one who has had to almost completely dismantle a laptop in the past when the filters needed attention).
They seem more... mid-high end than before - Alienware a few years ago to my mind meant spending at least £2k+ for THE BEST, now they seem to be "very good" and slightly cheaper. Surprised no 980GT gfx cards are in there.
Have you not accepted the fact that there will never be any action over that? Actions cost votes.
Except there is.
If people had bothered to read/watch the news.
subsidies for kebab shops ?
KYC courses for taxi drivers ?
plods get training for the difference between right and wrong ?
An IPCC investigation.
An NCA operation
Bringing in specialists to run Rotherham's Child Services/Protection department.
Supporting councils in courts who take out injunctions against suspected Groomers going anywhere children whom they aren't related to.
Why haven't all the councillors been arrested? And senior policemen? And social workers? All of them?
They should have been charged the day the Jay report came out. Joyce Thacker should be in prison already, doing 20 years, instead she's cuddling her OBE for her "work with young people" - when she isn't nursing her big fat pension.
1400 children were RAPED. Fourteen HUNDRED. If this happened in another country, or if this happened to poor black girls targeted by evil whites in Britain, the uproar would be unrelenting. The police action severe and ruthless. The police can arrest a guy the day after he sends a daft tweet. But when thousands of children are raped over 20 years....
"Specialists", "investigation", BOLLOCKS.
When we see plods, social workers and councillors going to jail we'll have seen some action.
Until then all the 'action' that is happening is the authorities ensuring that they are protected.
Why should anyone trust these 'operations' and 'investigations' - Childrens Minister Edward Timpson has had an Ofsted report which found Rotherham's Childrens Services 'inadequate' (now there's an understatement) on his desk for six weeks and has he taken any action with it yet ?
Why should anyone trust the same organisations which have so totally failed for decades ?
Its truly astonishing that Keith Vaz has achieved more on this issue than the entire government.
''It's one of the most atrocious and depressing news stories of the year. Which is saying something, given what 2014 has delivered us. ''
Its not just the establishment.
If people there really, really, cared, UKIP would win Rotherham and a whole host of other Northen towns hands down. As it is they are forecast to pick up precisely none of these seats, or councils for that matter, in 2015.
No way would labour have won the South Yorkshire police commissioner election if South Yorkshire really cared. They would have been smashed. But they won. Almost nobody voted anyway/
If the locals were not apathetic, the establishment would not be either.
Eighteen weeks now since the Rotherham report and still no government action.
While the plods much publicized 'day of reckoning' with its 'wave after wave of arrests' doesn't seem to have occurred either.
Is that because it was nothing more than an attempt to convince the media that the plods were taking some action, something which was stopped by people higher up the command chain, or perhaps some other reason ?
Whatever, it is surely worthy of a little investigation by Policing Minister Mike Penning ?
But then all those media reports of South Yorkshire plods collaborating with child rapists would be worthy of government investigation as well I should have thought.
Perhaps the government could ask Fiona Wolff or Lady Butler-Sloss to head an investigation ?
Have you not accepted the fact that there will never be any action over that? Actions cost votes.
Except there is.
If people had bothered to read/watch the news.
subsidies for kebab shops ?
KYC courses for taxi drivers ?
plods get training for the difference between right and wrong ?
An IPCC investigation.
An NCA operation
Bringing in specialists to run Rotherham's Child Services/Protection department.
Supporting councils in courts who take out injunctions against suspected Groomers going anywhere children whom they aren't related to.
zzzzz
activity, not action. Sir Humphrey gives the appaearance that something is being done.
Come back when there are arrests and convictions and half the plods and civil servants have been sacked.
Just google operation stovewood.
You remind me of Ed Balls.
It's the wrong type of growth/activity/action
you remind me of Gerry Adams and his approach to his own little problem.
hen visiting Cliff Richard appears remarkably reticent when presented with 1400 witnesses.
Still believe what you will.
I believe what happened in Rotherham and elsewhere shames this country and damages it, like the Catholic Church, there appears to be a desire to protect the institutions and not the victims.
To say nothing of the community itself. frankly if the people of S Yorks are sheep to the point of you can abuse their families in front of them and there are no consequences, why the hell would you employ them or invest there ?
For those boosting the idea of a grand coalition, do you see Ed Balls as Chancellor under David Cameron as Prime Minister or George Osborne as Chancellor under Ed Miliband? Is your answer different if Labour has 280 seats and the Conservatives 265 seats or vice versa?
Once you start coming down to personalities, it seems staggeringly improbable.
Phil Hammond PM, Alistair Darling CoE ^_~ ?
Darling's not sitting in the GE, so we're safe from that particular grand coalition of monotony.
On the ball here as ever, their encyclopedic knowledge on Scotland never fails to amaze me.
@FT: We are predicting a Conservative-Labour coalition in the UK next year. See the rest of the FT 2015 forecasts here: http://t.co/suWZA6C9CK
I've raised that possibility on PB before. I think that it's still unlikely, but how unlikely? Is there a betting market on a Grand Coalition yet?
That would definitively kill Labour forever in Scotland, would end the union and labour link (and the Union), would see the creation of a new Socialist Labour party with, say, 50 to 100 MPs, and would drive dozens - at least - of Tory MPs over to UKIP. And it would last for a year at most.
In short, it is not going to happen under any circumstance short of global war.
Those PBers expecting a Conservative majority need to look at possible Conservative constituency gains from Labour.
I see no chance of any in urban or suburban areas but one possible might be Derbyshire NE, smallish Labour majority, demographicly trending Conservative and the sort of place where UKIP are likely to gain more votes from Labour than they do from the Conservatives.
Con 7/1 with PP.
IIRC Pulpstar lives there, his thoughts would be interesting.
For those boosting the idea of a grand coalition, do you see Ed Balls as Chancellor under David Cameron as Prime Minister or George Osborne as Chancellor under Ed Miliband? Is your answer different if Labour has 280 seats and the Conservatives 265 seats or vice versa?
Once you start coming down to personalities, it seems staggeringly improbable.
Phil Hammond PM, Alistair Darling CoE ^_~ ?
Can you imagine the Scottish-Bar (or whatever the grunts who sacked him he resigned from are called) would say about a discredited lawyer, promoted to the House-of-Lords in Westminster, as Chancellor-of-the-Exchequer? And then - sigh - unckie-clown (for whom we await his awakening from buckfast and mcewans; and sick) is going to say....
cretinous rubbish from you as ever you stupid Little Englander.
For those boosting the idea of a grand coalition, do you see Ed Balls as Chancellor under David Cameron as Prime Minister or George Osborne as Chancellor under Ed Miliband? Is your answer different if Labour has 280 seats and the Conservatives 265 seats or vice versa?
Once you start coming down to personalities, it seems staggeringly improbable.
Phil Hammond PM, Alistair Darling CoE ^_~ ?
Can you imagine the Scottish-Bar (or whatever the grunts who sacked him he resigned from are called) would say about a discredited lawyer, promoted to the House-of-Lords in Westminster, as Chancellor-of-the-Exchequer? And then - sigh - unckie-clown (for whom we await his awakening from buckfast and mcewans; and sick) is going to say....
cretinous rubbish from you as ever you stupid Little Englander.
Police Scotland are constantly monitoring social media for racist language and are ready to act robustly. Watch it, my friend.
Eighteen weeks now since the Rotherham report and still no government action.
While the plods much publicized 'day of reckoning' with its 'wave after wave of arrests' doesn't seem to have occurred either.
Is that because it was nothing more than an attempt to convince the media that the plods were taking some action, something which was stopped by people higher up the command chain, or perhaps some other reason ?
Whatever, it is surely worthy of a little investigation by Policing Minister Mike Penning ?
But then all those media reports of South Yorkshire plods collaborating with child rapists would be worthy of government investigation as well I should have thought.
Perhaps the government could ask Fiona Wolff or Lady Butler-Sloss to head an investigation ?
Have you not accepted the fact that there will never be any action over that? Actions cost votes.
Except there is.
If people had bothered to read/watch the news.
subsidies for kebab shops ?
KYC courses for taxi drivers ?
plods get training for the difference between right and wrong ?
An IPCC investigation.
An NCA operation
Bringing in specialists to run Rotherham's Child Services/Protection department.
Supporting councils in courts who take out injunctions against suspected Groomers going anywhere children whom they aren't related to.
zzzzz
activity, not action. Sir Humphrey gives the appaearance that something is being done.
Come back when there are arrests and convictions and half the plods and civil servants have been sacked.
Just google operation stovewood.
You remind me of Ed Balls.
It's the wrong type of growth/activity/action
you remind me of Gerry Adams and his approach to his own little problem.
When there are convictions come back and tell us all how wonderful things are. Currently the nation's leadership has decided to kick this in to the long grass like Hillsborough or Iraq.
The police force that could round up the BBC when visiting Cliff Richard appears remarkably reticent when presented with 1400 witnesses.
Have you not accepted the fact that there will never be any action over that? Actions cost votes.
Except there is.
If people had bothered to read/watch the news.
subsidies for kebab shops ?
KYC courses for taxi drivers ?
plods get training for the difference between right and wrong ?
An IPCC investigation.
An NCA operation
Bringing in specialists to run Rotherham's Child Services/Protection department.
Supporting councils in courts who take out injunctions against suspected Groomers going anywhere children whom they aren't related to.
n", BOLLOCKS.
Why should anyone trust the same organisations which have so totally failed for decades ?
Its truly astonishing that Keith Vaz has achieved more on this issue than the entire government.
Agreed. It's possible to get all David Icke on this, given the slowly unfolding scandal of pedophilia in Westminster.
If Rotherham was briskly and rigorously investigated, and arrests made pronto, then people might ask why the same efficiency wasn't seen in the Westminster scandal. Is it in the interests of the Establishment to go slowly in both cases, so they deliberately catch no one?
Meh. Who knows.
What I do know is that dozens of the girls in Rotherham had babies underage (I have read allegations that the men deliberately impregnated the girls to produce more children who could then be abused). A baby delivered when the girl is under 16 is the clearest possible evidence of rape: the baby has the DNA of the father.
The baby could be DNA tested and the man arrested tomorrow.
Why isn't this happening?
It isn't happening because it would be tantamount to the establishment admitting making huge mistakes in various policy areas that have had horrendous consequences over decades .. and as we see on here, no one admits they are wrong when they can try and bluff their way out if it
Also it seems obvious to me that the government are so full of self importance, regard their own words as carrying so much weight, and think the population are so stupid & reactionary that any implied criticism of muslims from them would lead to anarchy/civil war, when in fact it is the lack of any action/ability to look the other way/refusal to say what millions are thinking that stokes resentment and division
For those boosting the idea of a grand coalition, do you see Ed Balls as Chancellor under David Cameron as Prime Minister or George Osborne as Chancellor under Ed Miliband? Is your answer different if Labour has 280 seats and the Conservatives 265 seats or vice versa?
Once you start coming down to personalities, it seems staggeringly improbable.
Phil Hammond PM, Alistair Darling CoE ^_~ ?
Can you imagine the Scottish-Bar (or whatever the grunts who sacked him he resigned from are called) would say about a discredited lawyer, promoted to the House-of-Lords in Westminster, as Chancellor-of-the-Exchequer? And then - sigh - unckie-clown (for whom we await his awakening from buckfast and mcewans; and sick) is going to say....
cretinous rubbish from you as ever you stupid Little Englander.
Police Scotland are constantly monitoring social media for racist language and are ready to act robustly. Watch it, my friend.
One of the few more cretinous creatures on here than the odious fluffer, a good little Englander buddy though. Do you practice together.
The event of the year which started the massive oil price slide is a victory for environmentalists everywhere.The planet moves markets if not climate change deniers.
Eighteen weeks now since the Rotherham report and still no government action.
While the plods much publicized 'day of reckoning' with its 'wave after wave of arrests' doesn't seem to have occurred either.
Is that because it was nothing more than an attempt to convince the media that the plods were taking some action, something which was stopped by people higher up the command chain, or perhaps some other reason ?
Whatever, it is surely worthy of a little investigation by Policing Minister Mike Penning ?
But then all those media reports of South Yorkshire plods collaborating with child rapists would be worthy of government investigation as well I should have thought.
Perhaps the government could ask Fiona Wolff or Lady Butler-Sloss to head an investigation ?
Have you not accepted the fact that there will never be any action over that? Actions cost votes.
Except there is.
If people had bothered to read/watch the news.
subsidies for kebab shops ?
KYC courses for taxi drivers ?
plods get training for the difference between right and wrong ?
An IPCC investigation.
An NCA operation
Bringing in specialists to run Rotherham's Child Services/Protection department.
Supporting councils in courts who take out injunctions against suspected Groomers going anywhere children whom they aren't related to.
zzzzz
activity, not action. Sir Humphrey gives the appaearance that something is being done.
Come back when there are arrests and convictions and half the plods and civil servants have been sacked.
Just google operation stovewood.
You remind me of Ed Balls.
It's the wrong type of growth/activity/action
you remind me of Gerry Adams and his approach to his own little problem.
When there are convictions come back and tell us all how wonderful things are. Currently the nation's leadership has decided to kick this in to the long grass like Hillsborough or Iraq.
The police force that could round up the BBC when visiting Cliff Richard appears remarkably reticent when presented with 1400 witnesses.
Still believe what you will.
Gives his bias away just a little bit methinks.
Happy Hogmanay malc - have you a full house tonight ?
For those boosting the idea of a grand coalition, do you see Ed Balls as Chancellor under David Cameron as Prime Minister or George Osborne as Chancellor under Ed Miliband? Is your answer different if Labour has 280 seats and the Conservatives 265 seats or vice versa?
Once you start coming down to personalities, it seems staggeringly improbable.
Phil Hammond PM, Alistair Darling CoE ^_~ ?
Can you imagine the Scottish-Bar (or whatever the grunts who sacked him he resigned from are called) would say about a discredited lawyer, promoted to the House-of-Lords in Westminster, as Chancellor-of-the-Exchequer? And then - sigh - unckie-clown (for whom we await his awakening from buckfast and mcewans; and sick) is going to say....
cretinous rubbish from you as ever you stupid Little Englander.
Police Scotland are constantly monitoring social media for racist language and are ready to act robustly. Watch it, my friend.
"Katie Hopkins investigated by police over 'little sweaty jocks' Ebola outburst on Twitter Controversial TV personality Katie Hopkins is facing a police investigation following complaints over a Twitter outburst about Ebola"
Someone here once gave the very good advice that if you hear anyone, in particular a politician, say 'lessons have been learnt' then you know nothing is going to change.
I think it might have been you, if so many thanks.
The continuing fall in oil prices (down again today) are a game changer; petrol prices are still falling (due to go down another 2p a litre tomorrow); it will have an impact on household budgets, and the profitability of many small businesses. Air fares and package hols will also start falling further; all of this will create a feel good factor which will affect people's voting intentions
Within our democracy and its systems the responsibility for investigating and arresting rests with the Chief of Police. Above them has been installed in South Yorkshire, the police commissioner role instead of the comittee of councillors etc. So the question is what has the new South Yorkshire police commissioner done since being elected on 31st October? In the past 8 weeks he has on his website News page ONE News statement. Which states that he was elected and a statement on 19th November in response to the HMIC report into child abuse in South Yorkshire. In that statement Canon Dr Alan Billings (Labour)
"It is pleasing to see that the HMIC’s Child Protection Inspection report found that improvements had been made in how South Yorkshire Police deal with child protection issues by the time the inspection was carried out in May this year. In particular I am pleased that HMIC has identified that good relationships exist between the Force and partner agencies which enhance the county’s safeguarding provision. I am concerned to read about the inconsistencies in child protection provision across the county and I will be looking closely at how the newly formed centralised referral unit and the new centralised public protection unit have been developed and improved since the inspection was carried out in May. The purpose of this centralised approach is to bring performance across the whole of South Yorkshire up to the highest possible standard by sharing good practice."
and thst is it.... 8 weeks, one statement of praise for the police and no action. Labour really chose another stinker with this chap....
Those PBers expecting a Conservative majority need to look at possible Conservative constituency gains from Labour.
I see no chance of any in urban or suburban areas but one possible might be Derbyshire NE, smallish Labour majority, demographicly trending Conservative and the sort of place where UKIP are likely to gain more votes from Labour than they do from the Conservatives.
Con 7/1 with PP.
IIRC Pulpstar lives there, his thoughts would be interesting.
My impression is that despite the announced 40-40 strategy (40 most winnable and most most at risk), the Tories and Labour are both putting 80% of their English effort into the Tory and LibDem marginals. A lot is under the radar but one can't send out a bulk direct mail without the other side noticing. Friends in three Labour marginals all say they're puzzled not to be under stronger attack. Could change before May, of course, but I assume that both sides think that unless the Tories are at least 5% ahead nationally (vs 7% in 2010), there's not much point in worrying about it.
Thanks to everyone for the PC tips. Pulpstar, my budget is £0 if I have any sense - I'm going to be too busy to do much gaming! But I'd pay say £1400 if I thought I had a future-proofed machine that'd last a few years. I play strategy/RPGs like Dragon Age or Civ, not multi-player action shooters. I did look hard at Dell's Alienware, having also had good Dell experiences in the past (including their excellent remote service, Bangalore for diagnosis and local engineers for instalation) - also thought them a bit pricey, though. I'll try PC Specialist, thanks!
"Katie Hopkins investigated by police over 'little sweaty jocks' Ebola outburst on Twitter Controversial TV personality Katie Hopkins is facing a police investigation following complaints over a Twitter outburst about Ebola"
I thought it was "sweaty socks"?
Anyway, looks like twitter/iphones are the telescreens from 1984, not televisons as I had assumed
IMO no party will win a majority. In fact I think the winning party may only have 280-290 seats, which means a 3 or 4 party coalition will be necessary.
Funny seeing "extrabet" up there rather than "IG".. I remember the meeting where we were told of the decision to change the branding for the Sports side of the business very well... as we walked back to our desks I said "well that's us F--ked" to my mate, and he started singing "I will go down with this ship" by Dido!
Petrol prices are about the same now as they were 30 years when you take inflation into account. Prices in 1984 were about 35 pence and inflation has tripled the value of the pound since then.
Those PBers expecting a Conservative majority need to look at possible Conservative constituency gains from Labour.
I see no chance of any in urban or suburban areas but one possible might be Derbyshire NE, smallish Labour majority, demographicly trending Conservative and the sort of place where UKIP are likely to gain more votes from Labour than they do from the Conservatives.
Con 7/1 with PP.
IIRC Pulpstar lives there, his thoughts would be interesting.
My impression is that despite the announced 40-40 strategy (40 most winnable and most most at risk), the Tories and Labour are both putting 80% of their English effort into the Tory and LibDem marginals. A lot is under the radar but one can't send out a bulk direct mail without the other side noticing. Friends in three Labour marginals all say they're puzzled not to be under stronger attack. Could change before May, of course, but I assume that both sides think that unless the Tories are at least 5% ahead nationally (vs 7% in 2010), there's not much point in worrying about it.
Which is why the Lib Dems are going to struggle to keep as many as 30 seats. However their belief in incumbency is a joy to watch.
Eighteen weeks now since the Rotherham report and still no government action.
While the plods much publicized 'day of reckoning' with its 'wave after wave of arrests' doesn't seem to have occurred either.
Is that because it was nothing more than an attempt to convince the media that the plods were taking some action, something which was stopped by people higher up the command chain, or perhaps some other reason ?
Whatever, it is surely worthy of a little investigation by Policing Minister Mike Penning ?
But then all those media reports of South Yorkshire plods collaborating with child rapists would be worthy of government investigation as well I should have thought.
Perhaps the government could ask Fiona Wolff or Lady Butler-Sloss to head an investigation ?
Have you not accepted the fact that there will never be any action over that? Actions cost votes.
Except there is.
If people had bothered to read/watch the news.
subsidies for kebab shops ?
KYC courses for taxi drivers ?
plods get training for the difference between right and wrong ?
An IPCC investigation.
An NCA operation
Bringing in specialists to run Rotherham's Child Services/Protection department.
Supporting councils in courts who take out injunctions against suspected Groomers going anywhere children whom they aren't related to.
zzzzz
activity, not action. Sir Humphrey gives the appaearance that something is being done.
Come back when there are arrests and convictions and half the plods and civil servants have been sacked.
Just google operation stovewood.
You remind me of Ed Balls.
It's the wrong type of growth/activity/action
Still believe what you will.
Gives his bias away just a little bit methinks.
Happy Hogmanay malc - have you a full house tonight ?
Same to you Alan, will be quiet night with just wife and myself. Had hectic Christmas at daughter's and been busy at work this week so looking forward to 4 lazy days. Hope you enjoy.
I threatened to do it and now I have done it, my Simple Moron Analysis Prediction for Scotland (SMAPS)
By taking the Yes vote and redistributing 2010 votes between the Unionist and Seperatist parties I have got a prediction for 2015.
SNP - 57 Labour - 1 (Dumfries & Galloway) Lib Dems - 1 (Orkney & Shetland )
The lesson here is you need to stand in a constituency with a & in the title if you want to hold back the yellow horde.
Percentage of vote wise it gives
SNP - 42.8% Lab - 29% Con - 12.4% Lib - 13.4% Greens - 1.7%
Methodologically there's massive holes in it as numerous Westminster constituencies overlap council areas so I've arbitrarily picked a council area to take the Independence votes from for those constituencies. Also I don't deal with independents and minor parties outside of Lib,Lab,Con,UKIP,BNP,SNP,Greens. So lots of holes in the model - but given that I think it's a stupid way of deciding who's going to win a constituency anyways I don't care that much.
I've got various margins of safety - where in my model has to predict and SNP win by >XXXX number of votes to consider it a win
>Margin - SNP Seats 0 - 57 1000 - 52 2000 - 47 3000 - 40 4000 - 32 5000 - 24 (At this point they are losing half their current seats and picking up Labour seats to replace them) 6000 - 13 7000 - 7 (At this point they've lost 4 of their current seats)
Other interesting notes - Under this model the SNP will actually do worse in Banff & Buchan in terms of absolute votes (-482) than 2010. Indeed bar Dundee East the SNP vote at the election very accurately tracks the Yes vote for the constituencies which they won (Dundee East massively outperformed) and the change in the SNP vote is minuscule.
Things I am going to tweak, the Con figure is too low - I am a firm believer in 16% Con in Scotland so I will adjust the Con figure up and the other Unionist parties down. Lib Dem Figure is to high and so will turn that down and redistribute accordingly. Also I have taken no account of the likely higher turnout in Scotland - The Scotland "Likely to Vote" figure is off the charts compared to the UK as a whole.
EDIT: Once I tidy up the spreadsheet I'll post it on Google
This looks great - I look forward to seeing it in the New Year.
A few thoughts:
- UKIP look like getting around 5% - mainly at the expense of the Unionists. - Lib Dems polling around 5% I think they'll get around 8/9%. - I agree Tory support in the 16% area although UKIP may eat into this.
Can't let Henry's piece go by without comment. The Tories must be hoping that Ed take's Henry's advice.
Labour has an almost terminal disease - disliking any leader except Attlee no matter how many elections they win, but adoring perpetual losers like Benn
Even the adoration of Attlee shows how weak the Labour idea is now - that was 70 years ago for heavens sake. There have been 66 years since 1948, which was when Attlee's reforming zeal largely dried up.
To cap it all, what polling there was in 1945 I believe indicated the voters wanted a Labour government...but Churchill as pm
Comments
I mentioned it merely because he has been very pleased with the performance of it over the years and it seems a well made piece of kit unlike a lot of laptops you see. Little things like filters you can remove for cleaning without dismantling the thing go a long way (spoken as one who has had to almost completely dismantle a laptop in the past when the filters needed attention).
Until then all the 'action' that is happening is the authorities ensuring that they are protected.
Why should anyone trust these 'operations' and 'investigations' - Childrens Minister Edward Timpson has had an Ofsted report which found Rotherham's Childrens Services 'inadequate' (now there's an understatement) on his desk for six weeks and has he taken any action with it yet ?
Why should anyone trust the same organisations which have so totally failed for decades ?
Its truly astonishing that Keith Vaz has achieved more on this issue than the entire government.
Its not just the establishment.
If people there really, really, cared, UKIP would win Rotherham and a whole host of other Northen towns hands down. As it is they are forecast to pick up precisely none of these seats, or councils for that matter, in 2015.
No way would labour have won the South Yorkshire police commissioner election if South Yorkshire really cared. They would have been smashed. But they won. Almost nobody voted anyway/
If the locals were not apathetic, the establishment would not be either.
The fact is they are apathetic.
I see no chance of any in urban or suburban areas but one possible might be Derbyshire NE, smallish Labour majority, demographicly trending Conservative and the sort of place where UKIP are likely to gain more votes from Labour than they do from the Conservatives.
Con 7/1 with PP.
IIRC Pulpstar lives there, his thoughts would be interesting.
I was looking at Southampton Itchen, where John Denham appears to be standing down and the tory guy who nearly beat him is running again.
Odds seem pretty cr8p just 9/4.
http://www.bloomberg.com/energy
.. and as we see on here, no one admits they are wrong when they can try and bluff their way out if it
Also it seems obvious to me that the government are so full of self importance, regard their own words as carrying so much weight, and think the population are so stupid & reactionary that any implied criticism of muslims from them would lead to anarchy/civil war, when in fact it is the lack of any action/ability to look the other way/refusal to say what millions are thinking that stokes resentment and division
Tony Blair is the only Labour leader to have won a working majority since OGH was a teenager.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/sep/22/rockefeller-heirs-divest-fossil-fuels-climate-change
The enforced jollity to celebrate what exactly ?
The sense of being a year older.
At least on your birthday you get given some presents.
Anyway have a good time tonight whatever you do.
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2002/05/14608/3653
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/celebritynews/11319054/Katie-Hopkins-investigated-by-police-over-little-sweaty-jocks-Ebola-outburst-on-Twitter.html
"Katie Hopkins investigated by police over 'little sweaty jocks' Ebola outburst on Twitter
Controversial TV personality Katie Hopkins is facing a police investigation following complaints over a Twitter outburst about Ebola"
Seems like a bit of a coincidence for it to happen again.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/dec/31/tony-blair-denies-report-saying-ed-miliband-cant-win-2015-election
Someone here once gave the very good advice that if you hear anyone, in particular a politician, say 'lessons have been learnt' then you know nothing is going to change.
I think it might have been you, if so many thanks.
In the past 8 weeks he has on his website News page ONE News statement. Which states that he was elected and a statement on 19th November in response to the HMIC report into child abuse in South Yorkshire. In that statement Canon Dr Alan Billings (Labour)
"It is pleasing to see that the HMIC’s Child Protection Inspection report found that improvements had been made in how South Yorkshire Police deal with child protection issues by the time the inspection was carried out in May this year. In particular I am pleased that HMIC has identified that good relationships exist between the Force and partner agencies which enhance the county’s safeguarding provision.
I am concerned to read about the inconsistencies in child protection provision across the county and I will be looking closely at how the newly formed centralised referral unit and the new centralised public protection unit have been developed and improved since the inspection was carried out in May. The purpose of this centralised approach is to bring performance across the whole of South Yorkshire up to the highest possible standard by sharing good practice."
and thst is it.... 8 weeks, one statement of praise for the police and no action. Labour really chose another stinker with this chap....
Thanks to everyone for the PC tips. Pulpstar, my budget is £0 if I have any sense - I'm going to be too busy to do much gaming! But I'd pay say £1400 if I thought I had a future-proofed machine that'd last a few years. I play strategy/RPGs like Dragon Age or Civ, not multi-player action shooters. I did look hard at Dell's Alienware, having also had good Dell experiences in the past (including their excellent remote service, Bangalore for diagnosis and local engineers for instalation) - also thought them a bit pricey, though. I'll try PC Specialist, thanks!
Anyway, looks like twitter/iphones are the telescreens from 1984, not televisons as I had assumed
New Thread
A few thoughts:
- UKIP look like getting around 5% - mainly at the expense of the Unionists.
- Lib Dems polling around 5% I think they'll get around 8/9%.
- I agree Tory support in the 16% area although UKIP may eat into this.
Labour has an almost terminal disease - disliking any leader except Attlee no matter how many elections they win, but adoring perpetual losers like Benn
Even the adoration of Attlee shows how weak the Labour idea is now - that was 70 years ago for heavens sake. There have been 66 years since 1948, which was when Attlee's reforming zeal largely dried up.
To cap it all, what polling there was in 1945 I believe indicated the voters wanted a Labour government...but Churchill as pm