300,000,000 Americans. What are the chances of the new candidates being closely related to previous and recent presidents? If it happened in the Third World, we'd suspect nepotism.
You mean you don't?
Seriously, it is a bit of a worry how tied up and 'old boy network' American politics seems to be becoming - as bad as the Unionists under the Hotel Cecil.
It would not maybe matter so much if any of them were halfway competent...
On the subject (from last week) of examples of impressively quick public service, I sent my driving licence back to get my address changed a week a go today. I have just received the new one. Bearing in mind it is unlikely they got the old one before Monday, that's one rapid turnaround!
And to think of all the rude remarks I've made about the DVLA over the years that I now have to eat...
I can hear those "for the good of the country in these perilous times" speeches already.
Well if they really want to catapult UKIP from 15% to 30%....
No, I really don't and I think it is important that our major parties maintain at least the illusion of choice by staying apart. Apart from anything else it would be unnecessarily cruel to all those lefties who prefer to go through life thinking that hard choices are some right wing delusion.
I have just been observing politicians for a long time. They can talk themselves into almost anything and persuade themselves that they are being altruistic.
Without some sort of black swan are there really going to be “perilous” times in May 2015? I suspect it’ll be some sort of Lab OR Con-led government, but what that’ll be I’m not sure. I wouldn’t be too surprised, TBH, if we didn’t end up with what we’ve got now!
Melt down in Greece, collapse of the Euro, war in Ukraine, revolution and radicalisation once the bribes and subsidies are cut back across the middle East, economic chaos in Russia, something lunatic in N Korea, the possibilities of a "crisis" are almost endless.
For those boosting the idea of a grand coalition, do you see Ed Balls as Chancellor under David Cameron as Prime Minister or George Osborne as Chancellor under Ed Miliband? Is your answer different if Labour has 280 seats and the Conservatives 265 seats or vice versa?
Once you start coming down to personalities, it seems staggeringly improbable.
Phil Hammond PM, Alistair Darling CoE ^_~ ?
Darling's not sitting in the GE, so we're safe from that particular grand coalition of monotony.
I note he doesn't have any letters behind his name either yet - does that mean he is unlikely to go into the Lords ?
I'd say it's a racing certainty he'll end up there, but not this honors list obviously. I suspect they'll want a suitable period to pass before handing out medals for 'saving the Union'.
Brown has definitively said he won't accept a peerage, so where Gordon doesn't go, Alistair will.
@FT: We are predicting a Conservative-Labour coalition in the UK next year. See the rest of the FT 2015 forecasts here: http://t.co/suWZA6C9CK
I've raised that possibility on PB before. I think that it's still unlikely, but how unlikely? Is there a betting market on a Grand Coalition yet?
That would definitively kill Labour forever in Scotland, would end the union and labour link (and the Union), would see the creation of a new Socialist Labour party with, say, 50 to 100 MPs, and would drive dozens - at least - of Tory MPs over to UKIP. And it would last for a year at most.
In short, it is not going to happen under any circumstance short of global war.
On the subject (from last week) of examples of impressively quick public service, I sent my driving licence back to get my address changed a week a go today. I have just received the new one. Bearing in mind it is unlikely they got the old one before Monday, that's one rapid turnaround!
And to think of all the rude remarks I've made about the DVLA over the years that I now have to eat...
Compare and contrast with the California DMV, where it took me eight weeks to receive my license, and the end product is a piece of super flimsy plastic that feels like it cost a couple of cents to make.
@FT: We are predicting a Conservative-Labour coalition in the UK next year. See the rest of the FT 2015 forecasts here: http://t.co/suWZA6C9CK
I've raised that possibility on PB before. I think that it's still unlikely, but how unlikely? Is there a betting market on a Grand Coalition yet?
That would definitively kill Labour forever in Scotland, would end the union and labour link (and the Union), would see the creation of a new Socialist Labour party with, say, 50 to 100 MPs, and would drive dozens - at least - of Tory MPs over to UKIP. And it would last for a year at most.
In short, it is not going to happen under any circumstance short of global war.
Because the Germans have been forming coalitions of one sort or another, usually very broad ones, since 1871. they are therefore not nearly as tribal as we are when it comes to politicking.
Germany also has two painful and not that distant memories of what happens when democratic parties fail to work together...
Conservatives 342 Labour 232 LibDems 27 SNP 25 UKIP 2 Plaid Cymru 2 Greens 1 N. Ireland Parties 18 Speaker 1
Conservative overall majority of 32
Which (non-Scottish) seats do you foresee Labour losing under such circumstances? Bearing in mind they must be favourites to pick up a number of seats from the Liberal Democrats so that's quite a drastic net loss to the Conservatives you are proposing.
One seat the Greens may fancy their chances in that you don't mention is Stroud, where they have a strong presence on the local council. They won't win it - if anyone other than Labour win it given how useless Neil Carmichael is and how personally popular David Drew is, then Labour are on course to come third nationally - but they might make a big effort there and possibly even come second.
The Greens do well in the town of Stroud and the immediate environs. The issue is that Stroud only has 10k people. For the Greens to do really well they would need to start taking Labour votes in places like Cam and Dursley
I can hear those "for the good of the country in these perilous times" speeches already.
Well if they really want to catapult UKIP from 15% to 30%....
No, I really don't and I think it is important that our major parties maintain at least the illusion of choice by staying apart. Apart from anything else it would be unnecessarily cruel to all those lefties who prefer to go through life thinking that hard choices are some right wing delusion.
I have just been observing politicians for a long time. They can talk themselves into almost anything and persuade themselves that they are being altruistic.
Without some sort of black swan are there really going to be “perilous” times in May 2015? I suspect it’ll be some sort of Lab OR Con-led government, but what that’ll be I’m not sure. I wouldn’t be too surprised, TBH, if we didn’t end up with what we’ve got now!
Melt down in Greece, collapse of the Euro, war in Ukraine, revolution and radicalisation once the bribes and subsidies are cut back across the middle East, economic chaos in Russia, something lunatic in N Korea, the possibilities of a "crisis" are almost endless.
Possibilities indeed, but I suspect all unlikely. For examplwe, Greece will have sorted itself and Ukraine seems to be calming down.
One seat the Greens may fancy their chances in that you don't mention is Stroud, where they have a strong presence on the local council. They won't win it - if anyone other than Labour win it given how useless Neil Carmichael is and how personally popular David Drew is, then Labour are on course to come third nationally - but they might make a big effort there and possibly even come second.
The Greens do well in the town of Stroud and the immediate environs. The issue is that Stroud only has 10k people. For the Greens to do really well they would need to start taking Labour votes in places like Cam and Dursley
And they may believe they can do so. I have family in Dursley and they all firmly believe that the only thing keeping Labour in play at all is David Drew himself. Quite a lot of the old socialist core in Dursley are now whispered to be flirting with the Greens - but are likely to vote for Drew.
If the Greens don't realise how strong that personal vote is, they may be tempted to make a big effort. If they've got any sense, bearing in mind Drew is very close to the Greens on many issues, they'll sit back and let him win.
300,000,000 Americans. What are the chances of the new candidates being closely related to previous and recent presidents? If it happened in the Third World, we'd suspect nepotism.
You mean you don't?
Seriously, it is a bit of a worry how tied up and 'old boy network' American politics seems to be becoming - as bad as the Unionists under the Hotel Cecil.
It would not maybe matter so much if any of them were halfway competent...
This is the one that gets me, "When was the last time the republicans won a Presidental race without a Bush on the ticket?"
I can hear those "for the good of the country in these perilous times" speeches already.
Well if they really want to catapult UKIP from 15% to 30%....
No, I really don't and I think it is important that our major parties maintain at least the illusion of choice by staying apart. Apart from anything else it would be unnecessarily cruel to all those lefties who prefer to go through life thinking that hard choices are some right wing delusion.
I have just been observing politicians for a long time. They can talk themselves into almost anything and persuade themselves that they are being altruistic.
Without some sort of black swan are there really going to be “perilous” times in May 2015? I suspect it’ll be some sort of Lab OR Con-led government, but what that’ll be I’m not sure. I wouldn’t be too surprised, TBH, if we didn’t end up with what we’ve got now!
Melt down in Greece, collapse of the Euro, war in Ukraine, revolution and radicalisation once the bribes and subsidies are cut back across the middle East, economic chaos in Russia, something lunatic in N Korea, the possibilities of a "crisis" are almost endless.
Possibilities indeed, but I suspect all unlikely. For examplwe, Greece will have sorted itself and Ukraine seems to be calming down.
I admire your optimism @OldKingCole but I'm not convinced Greece will sort itself out. In fact, it seems to be industriously tying itself up in further knots.
I don't think there are any easy answers to the Euro crisis, but one thing we should be grateful to Brown for, whatever his faults and whatever his real reasons, is that he kept us out of the currency itself.
300,000,000 Americans. What are the chances of the new candidates being closely related to previous and recent presidents? If it happened in the Third World, we'd suspect nepotism.
You mean you don't?
Seriously, it is a bit of a worry how tied up and 'old boy network' American politics seems to be becoming - as bad as the Unionists under the Hotel Cecil.
It would not maybe matter so much if any of them were halfway competent...
This is the one that gets me, "When was the last time the republicans won a Presidental race without a Bush on the ticket?"
Conservatives 342 Labour 232 LibDems 27 SNP 25 UKIP 2 Plaid Cymru 2 Greens 1 N. Ireland Parties 18 Speaker 1
Conservative overall majority of 32
Which (non-Scottish) seats do you foresee Labour losing under such circumstances? Bearing in mind they must be favourites to pick up a number of seats from the Liberal Democrats so that's quite a drastic net loss to the Conservatives you are proposing.
I actually think all the LibDems losses will go to the Conservatives.
300,000,000 Americans. What are the chances of the new candidates being closely related to previous and recent presidents? If it happened in the Third World, we'd suspect nepotism.
You mean you don't?
Seriously, it is a bit of a worry how tied up and 'old boy network' American politics seems to be becoming - as bad as the Unionists under the Hotel Cecil.
It would not maybe matter so much if any of them were halfway competent...
This is the one that gets me, "When was the last time the republicans won a Presidental race without a Bush on the ticket?"
1972.
But my favourite stat is
Q: When was the last time the Republicans won the White House without a Bush or a Nixon on the ticket,
Conservatives 342 Labour 232 LibDems 27 SNP 25 UKIP 2 Plaid Cymru 2 Greens 1 N. Ireland Parties 18 Speaker 1
Conservative overall majority of 32
Which (non-Scottish) seats do you foresee Labour losing under such circumstances? Bearing in mind they must be favourites to pick up a number of seats from the Liberal Democrats so that's quite a drastic net loss to the Conservatives you are proposing.
I actually think all the LibDems losses will go to the Conservatives.
Including Ceredigion, Cardiff Central, Redcar, Brent Central and Bradford East?
300,000,000 Americans. What are the chances of the new candidates being closely related to previous and recent presidents? If it happened in the Third World, we'd suspect nepotism.
You mean you don't?
Seriously, it is a bit of a worry how tied up and 'old boy network' American politics seems to be becoming - as bad as the Unionists under the Hotel Cecil.
It would not maybe matter so much if any of them were halfway competent...
This is the one that gets me, "When was the last time the republicans won a Presidental race without a Bush on the ticket?"
1972.
But my favourite stat is
Q: When was the last time the Republicans won the White House without a Bush or a Nixon on the ticket,
A: 1928
My prediction is that they will never again win the White House with a Bush or a Nixon on the ticket.
I can hear those "for the good of the country in these perilous times" speeches already.
Well if they really want to catapult UKIP from 15% to 30%....
No, I really don't and I think it is important that our major parties maintain at least the illusion of choice by staying apart. Apart from anything else it would be unnecessarily cruel to all those lefties who prefer to go through life thinking that hard choices are some right wing delusion.
I have just been observing politicians for a long time. They can talk themselves into almost anything and persuade themselves that they are being altruistic.
Without some sort of black swan are there really going to be “perilous” times in May 2015? I suspect it’ll be some sort of Lab OR Con-led government, but what that’ll be I’m not sure. I wouldn’t be too surprised, TBH, if we didn’t end up with what we’ve got now!
Melt down in Greece, collapse of the Euro, war in Ukraine, revolution and radicalisation once the bribes and subsidies are cut back across the middle East, economic chaos in Russia, something lunatic in N Korea, the possibilities of a "crisis" are almost endless.
Possibilities indeed, but I suspect all unlikely. For examplwe, Greece will have sorted itself and Ukraine seems to be calming down.
I admire your optimism @OldKingCole but I'm not convinced Greece will sort itself out. In fact, it seems to be industriously tying itself up in further knots.
I don't think there are any easy answers to the Euro crisis, but one thing we should be grateful to Brown for, whatever his faults and whatever his real reasons, is that he kept us out of the currency itself.
I'm afraid I think The Economist is completely wrong on this one.
The 'fix' is already in - there will be a restructuring of Greece's outstanding debt obligations next year, along the "extend and pretend" lines I've written about earlier.
Of course, it's possible that SYRIZA decides that an (effective) 30-50% write-off (which is what would be the net effect of 1.5% and 50 years) is still not acceptable, and heads down the GREXIT route. But that seems unlikely (I'd reckon a sub 5% chance).
That doesn't mean you should buy Greek government bonds (as the private sector is going to be forced to share the pain), but it does mean that - like the Cyprus bailout almost two years ago - this is more likely to be a damp squib than many commentators think.
Only change I would make to below predictions is that Plaid will not be on 2 seats. They are virtually guaranteed to hold 2 seats (Dwyfor & Carms East). It will be closer in Arfon, but should still be safe Plaid hold. They are also strongly placed in Ynys Mon and Ceredigion and I expect them to win at least one of these, so 4 seats is likely, 5 is possible and don't rule out 6 seats with a sneaky win in Llanelli. Unfortunately nothing else looks possible in Westminster GE.
Conservative 275 Labour 266 UKIP 34 SNP 28 Libdem 26 DUP 9 Other NI 10 PC 2
Result. Labour-Tory coalition under Cameron with Ed Balls as Deputy PM. Farage official leader of the opposition and PMs question time becomes highly entertaining.
City analysts seem to be united in thinking the Greek crisis is no biggie.
That always makes me nervous.
Quite. Lehmanns was quite a small bank too. Once it becomes possible to leave the Euro the pressure on the likes of Portugal and possibly Italy will be immense.
One thing which was generally underestimated in 2010 was the size of Labour's urban vote.
Most of the worst Conservative constituency failures were in the big cities - Birmingham Edgbaston, Hammersmith, Tooting and Westminster North for example. Similarly with the LibDems.
This strong Labour performance in urban areas has continued in local elections since and should be remembered when placing constituency bets.
A Labour gain in Enfield Southgate is by no means impossible.
I give you an overall early 70%.I think your assessment of the debates,involving the Green party,should be enough for Cameron to agree as he will see a place at the table for the Greens will take from Labour's left flank and are therefore likely to be of benefit.As Ukip are in ,most people will say why not the Greens who have an MP so Cameron can justify it on that basis. The various debates in GE2010 and in the indyref keep people more involved and they need to happen again in GE2015.
The Republican Party have only won the popular vote once in the last six Presidential Elections.
The best stat of them all is that the Republican party only twice won the popular vote between 1864 and 1920. But they were still out of the White House for just 16 years in that 56 year period, and only once lost two elections in a row.
I hadn't thought of the Nixon one, but of course you're quite right. A fairly damning indictment of their insularity.
Conservatives 342 Labour 232 LibDems 27 SNP 25 UKIP 2 Plaid Cymru 2 Greens 1 N. Ireland Parties 18 Speaker 1
Conservative overall majority of 32
Which (non-Scottish) seats do you foresee Labour losing under such circumstances? Bearing in mind they must be favourites to pick up a number of seats from the Liberal Democrats so that's quite a drastic net loss to the Conservatives you are proposing.
I actually think all the LibDems losses will go to the Conservatives.
I think some of us politics insiders underestimate the way many people treat politics like football, with our team vs their team.
There's no shortage of PBers with that attitude and who will change their opinions of a person or policy according to whether its that of their party of another.
I've often thought that political supporters have the same mentality as football supporters but are trying to look 'intellectual' or 'worthy'.
Conservatives 342 Labour 232 LibDems 27 SNP 25 UKIP 2 Plaid Cymru 2 Greens 1 N. Ireland Parties 18 Speaker 1
Conservative overall majority of 32
Cameron hostage to the loons & fruitcakes who are still in the party......urghhhh!
Been there. Done that. Don't want to do it again......
You'd rather not have a Tory majority government?
Seems to be a thing with the Cameroons. They say the nutters wreck the chances of a conservative government by only wanting to rule on their own terms but then say they themselves only want a government if it's on terms that suit them.
The Conservatives appear to have lost the ability to form a broad front government where everyone gets a bit of what they want but no-one gets it all, that more than anything is what's making them unelectable.
I threatened to do it and now I have done it, my Simple Moron Analysis Prediction for Scotland (SMAPS)
By taking the Yes vote and redistributing 2010 votes between the Unionist and Seperatist parties I have got a prediction for 2015.
SNP - 57 Labour - 1 (Dumfries & Galloway) Lib Dems - 1 (Orkney & Shetland )
The lesson here is you need to stand in a constituency with a & in the title if you want to hold back the yellow horde.
Percentage of vote wise it gives
SNP - 42.8% Lab - 29% Con - 12.4% Lib - 13.4% Greens - 1.7%
Methodologically there's massive holes in it as numerous Westminster constituencies overlap council areas so I've arbitrarily picked a council area to take the Independence votes from for those constituencies. Also I don't deal with independents and minor parties outside of Lib,Lab,Con,UKIP,BNP,SNP,Greens. So lots of holes in the model - but given that I think it's a stupid way of deciding who's going to win a constituency anyways I don't care that much.
I've got various margins of safety - where in my model has to predict and SNP win by >XXXX number of votes to consider it a win
>Margin - SNP Seats 0 - 57 1000 - 52 2000 - 47 3000 - 40 4000 - 32 5000 - 24 (At this point they are losing half their current seats and picking up Labour seats to replace them) 6000 - 13 7000 - 7 (At this point they've lost 4 of their current seats)
Other interesting notes - Under this model the SNP will actually do worse in Banff & Buchan in terms of absolute votes (-482) than 2010. Indeed bar Dundee East the SNP vote at the election very accurately tracks the Yes vote for the constituencies which they won (Dundee East massively outperformed) and the change in the SNP vote is minuscule.
Things I am going to tweak, the Con figure is too low - I am a firm believer in 16% Con in Scotland so I will adjust the Con figure up and the other Unionist parties down. Lib Dem Figure is to high and so will turn that down and redistribute accordingly. Also I have taken no account of the likely higher turnout in Scotland - The Scotland "Likely to Vote" figure is off the charts compared to the UK as a whole.
EDIT: Once I tidy up the spreadsheet I'll post it on Google
I think some of us politics insiders underestimate the way many people treat politics like football, with our team vs their team.
There's no shortage of PBers with that attitude and who will change their opinions of a person or policy according to whether its that of their party of another.
I've often thought that political supporters have the same mentality as football supporters but are trying to look 'intellectual' or 'worthy'.
City analysts seem to be united in thinking the Greek crisis is no biggie.
That always makes me nervous.
Quite. Lehmanns was quite a small bank too. Once it becomes possible to leave the Euro the pressure on the likes of Portugal and possibly Italy will be immense.
Lehman's was not a small bank! It was one of the 8 largest investment banks in the world, with a balance sheet of two-thirds of a trillion dollars.
City analysts seem to be united in thinking the Greek crisis is no biggie.
That always makes me nervous.
Calm down, the worst scenario always never happens, it's always a slow burner or a muddle until the final end. Remember the prediction was that the USSR would had collapsed into civil war and revolution by the year 1980, it took longer and was less dramatic. Similarly the eurozone was supposed to collapse in equal dramatic fashion in the year 2010, I dare to predict that it wont happen this decade.
Just think the first kinks into the USSR were the IMF bailouts and austerity on most Warsaw Pact countries after the 1973 oil crisis, by the early 1980's most people in the eastern block were sick of the continuous reduction of their quality of life in order to pay back the IMF loans, Romania and Yugoslavia were prime examples of IMF cut backs causing civil state breakdowns, but it took at least 15 years of economic crisis and austerity for the people to rise up. Neither the Berlin Wall's fall was a surprise since the first steps to economic and political liberalization in eastern europe were taken in 1987, 2 years before. The first free elections in Poland took place months before the wall fell.
I think a similar process will take place in the EU, change will be slow and will be marked by sharp memorable events which will be cracks on the dam, until finally the dam bursts.
The Republican Party have only won the popular vote once in the last six Presidential Elections.
The best stat of them all is that the Republican party only twice won the popular vote between 1864 and 1920. But they were still out of the White House for just 16 years in that 56 year period, and only once lost two elections in a row.
I hadn't thought of the Nixon one, but of course you're quite right. A fairly damning indictment of their insularity.
this is more likely to be a damp squib than many commentators think.
Hmmn.
If the troika does a deal with Greece there could be a queue of debtors outside their offices a mile long baying for the same treatment.
It would set a desperate precedent.
Can';t pay your debts? simply screw your bond holders.
What's that you say?? You don;t want to buy any more???
Greece has already defaulted once.
When the first default happened, it was painfully clear (debt-to-GDP of 170%) that it would need a second restructuring. In fact, I would wager that Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and UBS all stated that at the time.
The first restructuring involved haircuts to nominal values. (Your Greek government bonds previously paid out €100 at maturity, now they pay out €50 or thereabouts.) This one is going to be monkeying around with interest rates and maturities. So, you previously held €100 of 30 year Greek debt on which they paid 5%. Well, you're now going to own €100 of 50 year Greek debt on which they pay 2%. This is the same way pretty much the same way all IMF-led debt restructurings of emerging markets have gone in the past.
Now, if you're Italy, you can borrow at 0.8% for five years. Incredible, but true. Why would the Italian or Spanish or Portuegese government want to monkey with their investors when they cam already borrow at ludicrously low rates?
I give you an overall early 70%.I think your assessment of the debates,involving the Green party,should be enough for Cameron to agree as he will see a place at the table for the Greens will take from Labour's left flank and are therefore likely to be of benefit.As Ukip are in ,most people will say why not the Greens who have an MP so Cameron can justify it on that basis. The various debates in GE2010 and in the indyref keep people more involved and they need to happen again in GE2015.
The SNP are polling almost as much as the Greens at the moment and also have MPs, the only reason for leaving them out would be that they don't stand nationally. So I could see both Greens and SNP being left out.
My prediction is that they will never again win the White House with a Bush or a Nixon on the ticket.
I would accept your bet but for one obvious flaw: I am not a god and will be unlikely to confirm if I have won. You, on the other hand....
Well Jeb Bush will be defeated in a landslide by Hillary, so the Republicans will never accept another Bush after the bitter defeat of 2016, that name will become notorious even in Republican circles. Also safe to say that another Nixon will never arise in the Republican party, 40 years after Watergate and they are still rejected.
Conservative 275 Labour 266 UKIP 34 SNP 28 Libdem 26 DUP 9 Other NI 10 PC 2
Result. Labour-Tory coalition under Cameron with Ed Balls as Deputy PM which immediately repeals fixed term parliament act. Farage official leader of the opposition and PMs question time becomes highly entertaining. Effect of grand coalition is catastropic damage to electability of both parties as UKIP and Lib Dems make massive gains in 2018 election.
2018 Election Result.
Libdems 207 UKIP 135 Tory 129 Labour 118 SNP 42 DUP 9 Other NI 10 PC 5
Libdems form coalition with tories as junior partners under Libdem prime minister Sir David Laws. 18 months into coalition 15 tories have defected to UKIP and rump Tory party merges with Libdems to form the Liberal Party officially known as the Liberal and Unionist Party. In Scotland they run under the Unionist Party name. Farage stands down after 2018 election and is replaced by Douglas Carswell.
2023 Election Result
Lib 338 UKIP 205 Labour 76 SNP 10 DUP 9 NI 10 PC 2
Sir David Laws leads the first Liberal Majority government in a century.
Two years into the parliament there is a big split in Labour with 27 MPS defecting to the Liberals. The rump of labour merge with UKIP to form the United Kingdom Independent Labour Party (the independent now signifies a total break with the trade union movement)
2028 Election Result.
UKILP 340 Lib 285 SNP 5 DUP 6 (4 seats lost to UKILP) NI 10 (however SDLP take Liberal whip) PC 1
Mervyn King was trusted by George Osborne to run the Bank of England.It is important to note that King has recently stated that the last Labour government was not responsible for the great recession.Will the Conservatives and their supporters now stop peddling untruths.King knew that no single government could have caused that recession, it was a complex international affair.
Conservative 275 Labour 266 UKIP 34 SNP 28 Libdem 26 DUP 9 Other NI 10 PC 2
Result. Labour-Tory coalition under Cameron with Ed Balls as Deputy PM which immediately repeals fixed term parliament act. Farage official leader of the opposition and PMs question time becomes highly entertaining. Effect of grand coalition is catastropic damage to electability of both parties as UKIP and Lib Dems make massive gains in 2018 election.
2018 Election Result.
Libdems 207 UKIP 135 Tory 129 Labour 118 SNP 42 DUP 9 Other NI 10 PC 5
Libdems form coalition with tories as junior partners under Libdem prime minister Sir David Laws. 18 months into coalition 15 tories have defected to UKIP and rump Tory party merges with Libdems to form the Liberal Party officially known as the Liberal and Unionist Party. In Scotland they run under the Unionist Party name. Farage stands down after 2018 election and is replaced by Douglas Carswell.
2023 Election Result
Lib 338 UKIP 205 Labour 76 SNP 10 DUP 9 NI 10 PC 2
Sir David Laws leads the first Liberal Majority government in a century.
Two years into the parliament there is a big split in Labour with 27 MPS defecting to the Liberals. The rump of labour merge with UKIP to form the United Kingdom Independent Labour Party (the independent now signifies a total break with the trade union movement)
2028 Election Result.
UKILP 340 Lib 285 SNP 5 DUP 6 (4 seats lost to UKILP) NI 10 (however SDLP take Liberal whip) PC 1
Douglas Carswell is Prime Minister.
Britain has reverted to two party politics.
I think those are excellent predictions for Plaid Cymru
Gordon Helm , UKIP Essex CC for Bocking and PPC for Braintree sadly died on Xmas Eve ,his majority in 2013 was just 20 over the Conservatives with Labour a very close 3rd .
Conservative 275 Labour 266 UKIP 34 SNP 28 Libdem 26 DUP 9 Other NI 10 PC 2
Result. Labour-Tory coalition under Cameron with Ed Balls as Deputy PM which immediately repeals fixed term parliament act. Farage official leader of the opposition and PMs question time becomes highly entertaining. Effect of grand coalition is catastropic damage to electability of both parties as UKIP and Lib Dems make massive gains in 2018 election.
2018 Election Result.
Libdems 257 UKIP 160 Tory 89 Labour 78 SNP 42 DUP 9 Other NI 10 PC 5
Libdems form coalition with tories as junior partners under Libdem prime minister Sir David Laws. 18 months into coalition 15 tories have defected to UKIP and tory party merges with Liberals to form the Liberal and Unionist Party known as Liberals south of the border and Unionists north of the Border and in Wales.
Nigel Farage stands down in 2018 election and is replaced with Douglas Carswell.
2023 Election Result
Lib 338 UKIP 205 Labour 76 SNP 10 DUP 9 NI 10 PC 3
Sir David Laws leads first Liberal majority government elected in a century.
Three years in 25 labour MPs defect to the Libs, rump Labour party merges with UKIP to form the United Kingdom Independent & Labour Party. Independent now also signifies total separation from the trade union movement.
2028 Election Result
UKIP 344 Libdem 280 SNP 10 DUP 10 (but takes UKILP whip) NI 10 (but SDLP take UKILP whip) PC 1
I have to say 3 things: One, Jim Murphy will go down like the captain of the Titanic in May. Two, no one in the Labour party reads The Economist. Three, no one in the country apart from Dan Hodges and John Rentoul have a high opinion of Blair.
Eighteen weeks now since the Rotherham report and still no government action.
While the plods much publicized 'day of reckoning' with its 'wave after wave of arrests' doesn't seem to have occurred either.
Is that because it was nothing more than an attempt to convince the media that the plods were taking some action, something which was stopped by people higher up the command chain, or perhaps some other reason ?
Whatever, it is surely worthy of a little investigation by Policing Minister Mike Penning ?
But then all those media reports of South Yorkshire plods collaborating with child rapists would be worthy of government investigation as well I should have thought.
Perhaps the government could ask Fiona Wolff or Lady Butler-Sloss to head an investigation ?
Gordon Helm , UKIP Essex CC for Bocking and PPC for Braintree sadly died on Xmas Eve ,his majority in 2013 was just 20 over the Conservatives with Labour a very close 3rd .
Eighteen weeks now since the Rotherham report and still no government action.
While the plods much publicized 'day of reckoning' with its 'wave after wave of arrests' doesn't seem to have occurred either.
Is that because it was nothing more than an attempt to convince the media that the plods were taking some action, something which was stopped by people higher up the command chain, or perhaps some other reason ?
Whatever, it is surely worthy of a little investigation by Policing Minister Mike Penning ?
But then all those media reports of South Yorkshire plods collaborating with child rapists would be worthy of government investigation as well I should have thought.
Perhaps the government could ask Fiona Wolff or Lady Butler-Sloss to head an investigation ?
Have you not accepted the fact that there will never be any action over that? Actions cost votes.
Eighteen weeks now since the Rotherham report and still no government action.
While the plods much publicized 'day of reckoning' with its 'wave after wave of arrests' doesn't seem to have occurred either.
Is that because it was nothing more than an attempt to convince the media that the plods were taking some action, something which was stopped by people higher up the command chain, or perhaps some other reason ?
Whatever, it is surely worthy of a little investigation by Policing Minister Mike Penning ?
But then all those media reports of South Yorkshire plods collaborating with child rapists would be worthy of government investigation as well I should have thought.
Perhaps the government could ask Fiona Wolff or Lady Butler-Sloss to head an investigation ?
Have you not accepted the fact that there will never be any action over that? Actions cost votes.
Following on from Paul's predictions, here are mine:
2015 GE: Conservative 250 Labour 290 UKIP 5 SNP 10 Libdem 30 Greens: 5
Result: Labour / Lib Dem coalition. The other half of the Lib Dems leave in disgust, only to reappear magically in time for the 2020 GE.
2020 GE: Conservative 200 Labour 100 UKIP -5 SNP 125 Libdem 500
Result: Rumours of a Lib Dem pact with the devil is widely discounted, as are claims that Labour only scraped 100 seats due to a Mr Evans of Highgate receiving 1.5 million postal votes due to an addressing mistake. The fact that the number of MPs elected does not equal the number of seats is fixed when all the Conservative and Labour MPs are found mysteriously drowned in the Fleet and impaled on London Bridge. UKIP gets a negative number of MPs due to a clerical error. Eating octopus becomes punishable by death.
Result: Clerical errors leads to all parties aside from the Lib Dems getting negative numbers of MPs. Further rumours of a Lib Dem pact with the devil are roundly denied by a Mr. C. Thulhu MBE, OBE, CBE, KGVO, KG, GCB, the Lib Dem PM, who further says that the devil is a puny creature. He also advises that 'worshipping the green guy' might be a good idea.
2030 GE: The 2030 GE is cancelled due to the entire UK population having been moved to R'lyeh.
On that note, I hope posters and lurkers all haver a great 2015.
Conservatives 342 Labour 232 LibDems 27 SNP 25 UKIP 2 Plaid Cymru 2 Greens 1 N. Ireland Parties 18 Speaker 1
Conservative overall majority of 32
Cameron hostage to the loons & fruitcakes who are still in the party......urghhhh!
Been there. Done that. Don't want to do it again......
You'd rather not have a Tory majority government?
Seems to be a thing with the Cameroons. They say the nutters wreck the chances of a conservative government by only wanting to rule on their own terms but then say they themselves only want a government if it's on terms that suit them.
The Conservatives appear to have lost the ability to form a broad front government where everyone gets a bit of what they want but no-one gets it all, that more than anything is what's making them unelectable.
Assuming true .... then whose fault is that? Is Fox left or right wing? What did he do, attempt to get a bit of what he wanted? No he was crass and stupid and compromised himself to such an extent that he resigned. Davis? He walked out in a pique of either hysteria or self serving ambition. Its not 'conservatives' or Cameroons' - its stupid right wing politicians. Will Carswell get a bit of what he wants? Don't make me laugh. The best he is going to get is to be captain of his own canoe.
As a comparison - who was Mrs Thatcher's first defence secretary? Arch wet Francys Pym - he even went on to replace Carrington. Under Cameron we have a right winger at the MoD and he blows it. Who was at Thatchers side virtually all the time? Willie Whitelaw - hardly right wing. Where is the loser of 2005? Nowhere. Davis could be serving his party and his country - but he tried to serve himself.
Totally O/T, an entertaining experience at PC World Tottenham Hale, where I wanted to explore some gaming laptops on their website.
All the items on display were mass market machines, costing up to £500 - fair enough. There were four assistants there, but three of them were blocking an aisle arguing fiercely about whether one of them was carrying his headphones correctly. The fourth was a middle-aged lady. Hmm, mustn't be sexist or ageist. With misgivings, I said I wanted a high-end gaming laptop and asked her if they had a model I'd seen on their website in stock.
"Ah, you're a games player, eh?" she said affably. "I don't blame you. One has to pass the time somehow, eh? What's the laptop called?"
"MSI GS70 7QE, according to your website".
"But what's the brand?"
"MSI."
"No, the brand. The manufacturer."
"It's MSI."
"Huh? Well, let's see. (Types into computer.) Here it is!"
"Oh good. Can I have a look at it?"
"No, we don't have it. I think maybe the manufacturer doesn't make it any more."
"But it's on your website!"
"Yes..." (pensively). "Strange that. Well! Can I show you our special offer on tablets for £250?"
I gave up and went to Tesco and bought 5 pairs of socks for £5. Much more sensible really.
However, it does seem odd that there don't even in London seem to be alternatives to either mass market PC stores with uninformed assistants or little one-man outfits where they offer to assemble you a customised desktop. Can anyone recommend somewhere (preferably North London) to get a sensible discussion?
What I'm after, by the way, is a laptop that will play games that comes out now and over the next year or two - e.g. my current computer won't play Dragon Age's newest release. I reckon that graphics card, RAM and speed are the main issues.
And yes, yes, I need to concentrate on the election. But voters don't like being pestered after 8pm...
''Why would the Italian or Spanish or Portuguese government want to monkey with their investors when they cam already borrow at ludicrously low rates?''
True but those are current rates. Many of the coupons are much higher and I doubt there's a socialist east of the channel who wouldn't try to lower them if Tsipras wins.
Italy, France, Spain, Portugal.
And what about poor Ireland. We did as we were told as look where it got us.
Eighteen weeks now since the Rotherham report and still no government action.
While the plods much publicized 'day of reckoning' with its 'wave after wave of arrests' doesn't seem to have occurred either.
Is that because it was nothing more than an attempt to convince the media that the plods were taking some action, something which was stopped by people higher up the command chain, or perhaps some other reason ?
Whatever, it is surely worthy of a little investigation by Policing Minister Mike Penning ?
But then all those media reports of South Yorkshire plods collaborating with child rapists would be worthy of government investigation as well I should have thought.
Perhaps the government could ask Fiona Wolff or Lady Butler-Sloss to head an investigation ?
AR, you don't honestly expect HMG to give a shit do you ?
Eighteen weeks now since the Rotherham report and still no government action.
While the plods much publicized 'day of reckoning' with its 'wave after wave of arrests' doesn't seem to have occurred either.
Is that because it was nothing more than an attempt to convince the media that the plods were taking some action, something which was stopped by people higher up the command chain, or perhaps some other reason ?
Whatever, it is surely worthy of a little investigation by Policing Minister Mike Penning ?
But then all those media reports of South Yorkshire plods collaborating with child rapists would be worthy of government investigation as well I should have thought.
Perhaps the government could ask Fiona Wolff or Lady Butler-Sloss to head an investigation ?
Have you not accepted the fact that there will never be any action over that? Actions cost votes.
Except there is.
If people had bothered to read/watch the news.
subsidies for kebab shops ?
KYC courses for taxi drivers ?
plods get training for the difference between right and wrong ?
Miliband, and Scotland, are the two things that prevent me calling 2015 for Labour.
One more thing.
Like David Cameron or loathe him, he is a formidable campaigner. See AV and the Scottish referendum for evidence. He crushed his opponents. He even managed to nearly beat the main opposition in the have a moan special that is the euros.
As yet Dave hasn't started. He hasn't even turned up at the ground yet, let alone put his kit on or done the pre match stretches.
Miliband, and Scotland, are the two things that prevent me calling 2015 for Labour.
One more thing.
Like David Cameron or loathe him, he is a formidable campaigner. See AV and the Scottish referendum for evidence. He crushed his opponents. He even managed to nearly beat the main opposition in the have a moan special that is the euros.
As yet Dave hasn't started. He hasn't even turned up at the ground yet, let alone put his kit on or done the pre match stretches.
Alex Salmond is also a great campaigner; he also lost.
Eighteen weeks now since the Rotherham report and still no government action.
While the plods much publicized 'day of reckoning' with its 'wave after wave of arrests' doesn't seem to have occurred either.
Is that because it was nothing more than an attempt to convince the media that the plods were taking some action, something which was stopped by people higher up the command chain, or perhaps some other reason ?
Whatever, it is surely worthy of a little investigation by Policing Minister Mike Penning ?
But then all those media reports of South Yorkshire plods collaborating with child rapists would be worthy of government investigation as well I should have thought.
Perhaps the government could ask Fiona Wolff or Lady Butler-Sloss to head an investigation ?
Have you not accepted the fact that there will never be any action over that? Actions cost votes.
Except there is.
If people had bothered to read/watch the news.
subsidies for kebab shops ?
KYC courses for taxi drivers ?
plods get training for the difference between right and wrong ?
A IPCC investigation.
A NCA operation
Bringing in specialists to run Rotherham's Child Services/Protection department.
Supporting councils in courts who take out injunctions against suspected Groomers going anywhere children whom they aren't related to.
Eighteen weeks now since the Rotherham report and still no government action.
While the plods much publicized 'day of reckoning' with its 'wave after wave of arrests' doesn't seem to have occurred either.
Is that because it was nothing more than an attempt to convince the media that the plods were taking some action, something which was stopped by people higher up the command chain, or perhaps some other reason ?
Whatever, it is surely worthy of a little investigation by Policing Minister Mike Penning ?
But then all those media reports of South Yorkshire plods collaborating with child rapists would be worthy of government investigation as well I should have thought.
Perhaps the government could ask Fiona Wolff or Lady Butler-Sloss to head an investigation ?
Have you not accepted the fact that there will never be any action over that? Actions cost votes.
Except there is.
If people had bothered to read/watch the news.
subsidies for kebab shops ?
KYC courses for taxi drivers ?
plods get training for the difference between right and wrong ?
An IPCC investigation.
An NCA operation
Bringing in specialists to run Rotherham's Child Services/Protection department.
Supporting councils in courts who take out injunctions against suspected Groomers going anywhere children whom they aren't related to.
zzzzz
activity, not action. Sir Humphrey gives the appaearance that something is being done.
Come back when there are arrests and convictions and half the plods and civil servants have been sacked.
Totally O/T, an entertaining experience at PC World Tottenham Hale, where I wanted to explore some gaming laptops on their website.
All the items on display were mass market machines, costing up to £500 - fair enough. There were four assistants there, but three of them were blocking an aisle arguing fiercely about whether one of them was carrying his headphones correctly. The fourth was a middle-aged lady. Hmm, mustn't be sexist or ageist. With misgivings, I said I wanted a high-end gaming laptop and asked her if they had a model I'd seen on their website in stock.
"Ah, you're a games player, eh?" she said affably. "I don't blame you. One has to pass the time somehow, eh? What's the laptop called?"
"MSI GS70 7QE, according to your website".
"But what's the brand?"
"MSI."
"No, the brand. The manufacturer."
"It's MSI."
"Huh? Well, let's see. (Types into computer.) Here it is!"
"Oh good. Can I have a look at it?"
"No, we don't have it. I think maybe the manufacturer doesn't make it any more."
"But it's on your website!"
"Yes..." (pensively). "Strange that. Well! Can I show you our special offer on tablets for £250?"
I gave up and went to Tesco and bought 5 pairs of socks for £5. Much more sensible really.
However, it does seem odd that there don't even in London seem to be alternatives to either mass market PC stores with uninformed assistants or little one-man outfits where they offer to assemble you a customised desktop. Can anyone recommend somewhere (preferably North London) to get a sensible discussion?
What I'm after, by the way, is a laptop that will play games that comes out now and over the next year or two - e.g. my current computer won't play Dragon Age's newest release. I reckon that graphics card, RAM and speed are the main issues.
And yes, yes, I need to concentrate on the election. But voters don't like being pestered after 8pm...
Totally O/T, an entertaining experience at PC World Tottenham Hale, where I wanted to explore some gaming laptops on their website.
All the items on display were mass market machines, costing up to £500 - fair enough. There were four assistants there, but three of them were blocking an aisle arguing fiercely about whether one of them was carrying his headphones correctly. The fourth was a middle-aged lady. Hmm, mustn't be sexist or ageist. With misgivings, I said I wanted a high-end gaming laptop and asked her if they had a model I'd seen on their website in stock.
"Ah, you're a games player, eh?" she said affably. "I don't blame you. One has to pass the time somehow, eh? What's the laptop called?"
"MSI GS70 7QE, according to your website".
"But what's the brand?"
"MSI."
"No, the brand. The manufacturer."
"It's MSI."
"Huh? Well, let's see. (Types into computer.) Here it is!"
"Oh good. Can I have a look at it?"
"No, we don't have it. I think maybe the manufacturer doesn't make it any more."
"But it's on your website!"
"Yes..." (pensively). "Strange that. Well! Can I show you our special offer on tablets for £250?"
I gave up and went to Tesco and bought 5 pairs of socks for £5. Much more sensible really.
However, it does seem odd that there don't even in London seem to be alternatives to either mass market PC stores with uninformed assistants or little one-man outfits where they offer to assemble you a customised desktop. Can anyone recommend somewhere (preferably North London) to get a sensible discussion?
What I'm after, by the way, is a laptop that will play games that comes out now and over the next year or two - e.g. my current computer won't play Dragon Age's newest release. I reckon that graphics card, RAM and speed are the main issues.
And yes, yes, I need to concentrate on the election. But voters don't like being pestered after 8pm...
My son got one of the alienware laptops from dell when he went to university and swears by it. Even though it is around 4 years old now it still plays all modern games at highest video settings. Might want to look at those
@politicshome: Vice Chair Labour Election Campaign Lucy Powell #wato : "Tony Blair, he has his experience from his era, that is not the era we now live in"
I have to say 3 things: One, Jim Murphy will go down like the captain of the Titanic in May. Two, no one in the Labour party reads The Economist. Three, no one in the country apart from Dan Hodges and John Rentoul have a high opinion of Blair.
I think Blair's a charlatan and a bounder, who deliberately and calamitously lied, to parliament and public, about Iraq. But that doesn't mean I necessarily dismiss his opinions. He's a cunning politician, a clever chap, and Labour's most successful leader ever, by a huge distance. If it weren't for Iraq he'd be worshipped by lefties the way Thatcher is worshipped by Tories.
So his analysis of Miliband is worth consideration. A Labour leader as obviously leftwing as Miliband hasn't won a General Election in Britain, ever. And he is horribly unpopular, ALREADY.
Miliband, and Scotland, are the two things that prevent me calling 2015 for Labour.
Logic says Labour should win at least a plurality, despite everything, because of the electoral bias in their favour, but...
Legacy matters, Labour's long rule left the economy in a dire state whilst the economy was the strongest it had been in decades at the end of the 90s. Still it is remarkable given how lauded Blair was and the elections he won that he is so widely despised.
His mysterious fantastical wealth doesn't help either.
Eighteen weeks now since the Rotherham report and still no government action.
While the plods much publicized 'day of reckoning' with its 'wave after wave of arrests' doesn't seem to have occurred either.
Is that because it was nothing more than an attempt to convince the media that the plods were taking some action, something which was stopped by people higher up the command chain, or perhaps some other reason ?
Whatever, it is surely worthy of a little investigation by Policing Minister Mike Penning ?
But then all those media reports of South Yorkshire plods collaborating with child rapists would be worthy of government investigation as well I should have thought.
Perhaps the government could ask Fiona Wolff or Lady Butler-Sloss to head an investigation ?
Have you not accepted the fact that there will never be any action over that? Actions cost votes.
Except there is.
If people had bothered to read/watch the news.
subsidies for kebab shops ?
KYC courses for taxi drivers ?
plods get training for the difference between right and wrong ?
An IPCC investigation.
An NCA operation
Bringing in specialists to run Rotherham's Child Services/Protection department.
Supporting councils in courts who take out injunctions against suspected Groomers going anywhere children whom they aren't related to.
zzzzz
activity, not action. Sir Humphrey gives the appaearance that something is being done.
Come back when there are arrests and convictions and half the plods and civil servants have been sacked.
Not sure about Cameron as "great campaigner". He couldn't get a majority against a discredited Brown but during Scots referendum had to rely on a less discredited Brown in the last minute panic of the vow!
However here is a subtle theory on the Blair/Economist interview and then the tweeted recanting. There is nothing absolutely nothing more likely to endear an anti-Iraq war, ex Labour voter like me to Ed Milliband than to have him attacked by Tony Blair.
I reckon Awith ALienware you're paying a fair premium for the fancy lit up keys etc. If you are spending over a grand I'd expect a 970 or 980 GTX, not an 860 which is all the Alienware seem to be offering.
Totally O/T, an entertaining experience at PC World Tottenham Hale, where I wanted to explore some gaming laptops on their website.
All the items on display were mass market machines, costing up to £500 - fair enough. There were four assistants there, but three of them were blocking an aisle arguing fiercely about whether one of them was carrying his headphones correctly. The fourth was a middle-aged lady. Hmm, mustn't be sexist or ageist. With misgivings, I said I wanted a high-end gaming laptop and asked her if they had a model I'd seen on their website in stock.
"Ah, you're a games player, eh?" she said affably. "I don't blame you. One has to pass the time somehow, eh? What's the laptop called?"
"MSI GS70 7QE, according to your website".
"But what's the brand?"
"MSI."
"No, the brand. The manufacturer."
"It's MSI."
"Huh? Well, let's see. (Types into computer.) Here it is!"
"Oh good. Can I have a look at it?"
"No, we don't have it. I think maybe the manufacturer doesn't make it any more."
"But it's on your website!"
"Yes..." (pensively). "Strange that. Well! Can I show you our special offer on tablets for £250?"
I gave up and went to Tesco and bought 5 pairs of socks for £5. Much more sensible really.
However, it does seem odd that there don't even in London seem to be alternatives to either mass market PC stores with uninformed assistants or little one-man outfits where they offer to assemble you a customised desktop. Can anyone recommend somewhere (preferably North London) to get a sensible discussion?
What I'm after, by the way, is a laptop that will play games that comes out now and over the next year or two - e.g. my current computer won't play Dragon Age's newest release. I reckon that graphics card, RAM and speed are the main issues.
And yes, yes, I need to concentrate on the election. But voters don't like being pestered after 8pm...
You should build your own! Relatively simple, and you can usually get a better spec machine for the same amount of money.
Totally O/T, an entertaining experience at PC World Tottenham Hale, where I wanted to explore some gaming laptops on their website.
All the items on display were mass market machines, costing up to £500 - fair enough. There were four assistants there, but three of them were blocking an aisle arguing fiercely about whether one of them was carrying his headphones correctly. The fourth was a middle-aged lady. Hmm, mustn't be sexist or ageist. With misgivings, I said I wanted a high-end gaming laptop and asked her if they had a model I'd seen on their website in stock.
"Ah, you're a games player, eh?" she said affably. "I don't blame you. One has to pass the time somehow, eh? What's the laptop called?"
"MSI GS70 7QE, according to your website".
"But what's the brand?"
"MSI."
"No, the brand. The manufacturer."
"It's MSI."
"Huh? Well, let's see. (Types into computer.) Here it is!"
"Oh good. Can I have a look at it?"
"No, we don't have it. I think maybe the manufacturer doesn't make it any more."
"But it's on your website!"
"Yes..." (pensively). "Strange that. Well! Can I show you our special offer on tablets for £250?"
I gave up and went to Tesco and bought 5 pairs of socks for £5. Much more sensible really.
However, it does seem odd that there don't even in London seem to be alternatives to either mass market PC stores with uninformed assistants or little one-man outfits where they offer to assemble you a customised desktop. Can anyone recommend somewhere (preferably North London) to get a sensible discussion?
What I'm after, by the way, is a laptop that will play games that comes out now and over the next year or two - e.g. my current computer won't play Dragon Age's newest release. I reckon that graphics card, RAM and speed are the main issues.
And yes, yes, I need to concentrate on the election. But voters don't like being pestered after 8pm...
You should build your own! Relatively simple, and you can usually get a better spec machine for the same amount of money.
Is building a laptop "relatively simple" though, I've done it with desktops but not Laptop...
Eighteen weeks now since the Rotherham report and still no government action.
While the plods much publicized 'day of reckoning' with its 'wave after wave of arrests' doesn't seem to have occurred either.
Is that because it was nothing more than an attempt to convince the media that the plods were taking some action, something which was stopped by people higher up the command chain, or perhaps some other reason ?
Whatever, it is surely worthy of a little investigation by Policing Minister Mike Penning ?
But then all those media reports of South Yorkshire plods collaborating with child rapists would be worthy of government investigation as well I should have thought.
Perhaps the government could ask Fiona Wolff or Lady Butler-Sloss to head an investigation ?
Have you not accepted the fact that there will never be any action over that? Actions cost votes.
Except there is.
If people had bothered to read/watch the news.
subsidies for kebab shops ?
KYC courses for taxi drivers ?
plods get training for the difference between right and wrong ?
An IPCC investigation.
An NCA operation
Bringing in specialists to run Rotherham's Child Services/Protection department.
Supporting councils in courts who take out injunctions against suspected Groomers going anywhere children whom they aren't related to.
zzzzz
activity, not action. Sir Humphrey gives the appaearance that something is being done.
Come back when there are arrests and convictions and half the plods and civil servants have been sacked.
Just google operation stovewood.
You remind me of Ed Balls.
It's the wrong type of growth/activity/action
you remind me of Gerry Adams and his approach to his own little problem.
When there are convictions come back and tell us all how wonderful things are. Currently the nation's leadership has decided to kick this in to the long grass like Hillsborough or Iraq.
The police force that could round up the BBC when visiting Cliff Richard appears remarkably reticent when presented with 1400 witnesses.
However, it does seem odd that there don't even in London seem to be alternatives to either mass market PC stores with uninformed assistants or little one-man outfits where they offer to assemble you a customised desktop. Can anyone recommend somewhere (preferably North London) to get a sensible discussion?
What I'm after, by the way, is a laptop that will play games that comes out now and over the next year or two - e.g. my current computer won't play Dragon Age's newest release. I reckon that graphics card, RAM and speed are the main issues.
And yes, yes, I need to concentrate on the election. But voters don't like being pestered after 8pm...
I try to buy my computers from John Lewis' range if possible. They offer a 2 year warranty, and their assistants do seem to have some idea about the stock. That said, I've usually decided what I want to buy before going there. :-)
Comments
Seriously, it is a bit of a worry how tied up and 'old boy network' American politics seems to be becoming - as bad as the Unionists under the Hotel Cecil.
It would not maybe matter so much if any of them were halfway competent...
And to think of all the rude remarks I've made about the DVLA over the years that I now have to eat...
Brown has definitively said he won't accept a peerage, so where Gordon doesn't go, Alistair will.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_coalition_(Germany)
Conservatives 342
Labour 232
LibDems 27
SNP 25
UKIP 2
Plaid Cymru 2
Greens 1
N. Ireland Parties 18
Speaker 1
Conservative overall majority of 32
Germany also has two painful and not that distant memories of what happens when democratic parties fail to work together...
If the Greens don't realise how strong that personal vote is, they may be tempted to make a big effort. If they've got any sense, bearing in mind Drew is very close to the Greens on many issues, they'll sit back and let him win.
Hopefully.
http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21637334-why-early-election-spells-big-dangers-greeceand-euro-euros-next-crisis
I don't think there are any easy answers to the Euro crisis, but one thing we should be grateful to Brown for, whatever his faults and whatever his real reasons, is that he kept us out of the currency itself.
City analysts seem to be united in thinking the Greek crisis is no biggie.
That always makes me nervous.
Been there. Done that. Don't want to do it again......
But my favourite stat is
Q: When was the last time the Republicans won the White House without a Bush or a Nixon on the ticket,
A: 1928
The 'fix' is already in - there will be a restructuring of Greece's outstanding debt obligations next year, along the "extend and pretend" lines I've written about earlier.
Of course, it's possible that SYRIZA decides that an (effective) 30-50% write-off (which is what would be the net effect of 1.5% and 50 years) is still not acceptable, and heads down the GREXIT route. But that seems unlikely (I'd reckon a sub 5% chance).
That doesn't mean you should buy Greek government bonds (as the private sector is going to be forced to share the pain), but it does mean that - like the Cyprus bailout almost two years ago - this is more likely to be a damp squib than many commentators think.
The Republican Party have only won the popular vote once in the last six Presidential Elections.
Labour 266
UKIP 34
SNP 28
Libdem 26
DUP 9
Other NI 10
PC 2
Result. Labour-Tory coalition under Cameron with Ed Balls as Deputy PM. Farage official leader of the opposition and PMs question time becomes highly entertaining.
Most of the worst Conservative constituency failures were in the big cities - Birmingham Edgbaston, Hammersmith, Tooting and Westminster North for example. Similarly with the LibDems.
This strong Labour performance in urban areas has continued in local elections since and should be remembered when placing constituency bets.
A Labour gain in Enfield Southgate is by no means impossible.
The various debates in GE2010 and in the indyref keep people more involved and they need to happen again in GE2015.
I hadn't thought of the Nixon one, but of course you're quite right. A fairly damning indictment of their insularity.
Hmmn.
If the troika does a deal with Greece there could be a queue of debtors outside their offices a mile long baying for the same treatment.
It would set a desperate precedent.
Can';t pay your debts? simply screw your bond holders.
What's that you say?? You don;t want to buy any more???
Sporting Index now suggesting 5 more Labour seats than Tory ones.
Also crossover between SNP and Liberals - SNP midpoint now 29 to Liberals 28!
SPORTING INDEX POLITICAL SPREADS NOON 31ST DECEMBER
Labour Seats Sell 283 - 289 Buy
Conservative Seats Sell 278 - 284 Buy
Liberal Democrats Seats Sell 27 - 29 Buy
UKIP Seats Sell 7.5 - 9.5 Buy
SNP Seats Sell 28 - 30
13-8 for the Conservatives in Brecon and Radnorshire which must go blue for this result to have even an outside chance of winning.
I've often thought that political supporters have the same mentality as football supporters but are trying to look 'intellectual' or 'worthy'.
Hopefully it will be good for all and if it can't be good then let it be lucky.
The Conservatives appear to have lost the ability to form a broad front government where everyone gets a bit of what they want but no-one gets it all, that more than anything is what's making them unelectable.
By taking the Yes vote and redistributing 2010 votes between the Unionist and Seperatist parties I have got a prediction for 2015.
SNP - 57
Labour - 1 (Dumfries & Galloway)
Lib Dems - 1 (Orkney & Shetland )
The lesson here is you need to stand in a constituency with a & in the title if you want to hold back the yellow horde.
Percentage of vote wise it gives
SNP - 42.8%
Lab - 29%
Con - 12.4%
Lib - 13.4%
Greens - 1.7%
Methodologically there's massive holes in it as numerous Westminster constituencies overlap council areas so I've arbitrarily picked a council area to take the Independence votes from for those constituencies. Also I don't deal with independents and minor parties outside of Lib,Lab,Con,UKIP,BNP,SNP,Greens. So lots of holes in the model - but given that I think it's a stupid way of deciding who's going to win a constituency anyways I don't care that much.
I've got various margins of safety - where in my model has to predict and SNP win by >XXXX number of votes to consider it a win
>Margin - SNP Seats
0 - 57
1000 - 52
2000 - 47
3000 - 40
4000 - 32
5000 - 24 (At this point they are losing half their current seats and picking up Labour seats to replace them)
6000 - 13
7000 - 7 (At this point they've lost 4 of their current seats)
Other interesting notes - Under this model the SNP will actually do worse in Banff & Buchan in terms of absolute votes (-482) than 2010. Indeed bar Dundee East the SNP vote at the election very accurately tracks the Yes vote for the constituencies which they won (Dundee East massively outperformed) and the change in the SNP vote is minuscule.
Things I am going to tweak, the Con figure is too low - I am a firm believer in 16% Con in Scotland so I will adjust the Con figure up and the other Unionist parties down. Lib Dem Figure is to high and so will turn that down and redistribute accordingly. Also I have taken no account of the likely higher turnout in Scotland - The Scotland "Likely to Vote" figure is off the charts compared to the UK as a whole.
EDIT: Once I tidy up the spreadsheet I'll post it on Google
Remember the prediction was that the USSR would had collapsed into civil war and revolution by the year 1980, it took longer and was less dramatic.
Similarly the eurozone was supposed to collapse in equal dramatic fashion in the year 2010, I dare to predict that it wont happen this decade.
Just think the first kinks into the USSR were the IMF bailouts and austerity on most Warsaw Pact countries after the 1973 oil crisis, by the early 1980's most people in the eastern block were sick of the continuous reduction of their quality of life in order to pay back the IMF loans, Romania and Yugoslavia were prime examples of IMF cut backs causing civil state breakdowns, but it took at least 15 years of economic crisis and austerity for the people to rise up.
Neither the Berlin Wall's fall was a surprise since the first steps to economic and political liberalization in eastern europe were taken in 1987, 2 years before. The first free elections in Poland took place months before the wall fell.
I think a similar process will take place in the EU, change will be slow and will be marked by sharp memorable events which will be cracks on the dam, until finally the dam bursts.
When the first default happened, it was painfully clear (debt-to-GDP of 170%) that it would need a second restructuring. In fact, I would wager that Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and UBS all stated that at the time.
The first restructuring involved haircuts to nominal values. (Your Greek government bonds previously paid out €100 at maturity, now they pay out €50 or thereabouts.) This one is going to be monkeying around with interest rates and maturities. So, you previously held €100 of 30 year Greek debt on which they paid 5%. Well, you're now going to own €100 of 50 year Greek debt on which they pay 2%. This is the same way pretty much the same way all IMF-led debt restructurings of emerging markets have gone in the past.
Now, if you're Italy, you can borrow at 0.8% for five years. Incredible, but true. Why would the Italian or Spanish or Portuegese government want to monkey with their investors when they cam already borrow at ludicrously low rates?
Also safe to say that another Nixon will never arise in the Republican party, 40 years after Watergate and they are still rejected.
Labour 266
UKIP 34
SNP 28
Libdem 26
DUP 9
Other NI 10
PC 2
Result. Labour-Tory coalition under Cameron with Ed Balls as Deputy PM which immediately repeals fixed term parliament act. Farage official leader of the opposition and PMs question time becomes highly entertaining. Effect of grand coalition is catastropic damage to electability of both parties as UKIP and Lib Dems make massive gains in 2018 election.
2018 Election Result.
Libdems 207
UKIP 135
Tory 129
Labour 118
SNP 42
DUP 9
Other NI 10
PC 5
Libdems form coalition with tories as junior partners under Libdem prime minister Sir David Laws. 18 months into coalition 15 tories have defected to UKIP and rump Tory party merges with Libdems to form the Liberal Party officially known as the Liberal and Unionist Party. In Scotland they run under the Unionist Party name. Farage stands down after 2018 election and is replaced by Douglas Carswell.
2023 Election Result
Lib 338
UKIP 205
Labour 76
SNP 10
DUP 9
NI 10
PC 2
Sir David Laws leads the first Liberal Majority government in a century.
Two years into the parliament there is a big split in Labour with 27 MPS defecting to the Liberals. The rump of labour merge with UKIP to form the United Kingdom Independent Labour Party (the independent now signifies a total break with the trade union movement)
2028 Election Result.
UKILP 340
Lib 285
SNP 5
DUP 6 (4 seats lost to UKILP)
NI 10 (however SDLP take Liberal whip)
PC 1
Douglas Carswell is Prime Minister.
Britain has reverted to two party politics.
http://blogs.channel4.com/paul-mason-blog/2014-year-forget-ed-miliband-win-bust/2817
2015 Election Result
Conservative 275
Labour 266
UKIP 34
SNP 28
Libdem 26
DUP 9
Other NI 10
PC 2
Result. Labour-Tory coalition under Cameron with Ed Balls as Deputy PM which immediately repeals fixed term parliament act. Farage official leader of the opposition and PMs question time becomes highly entertaining. Effect of grand coalition is catastropic damage to electability of both parties as UKIP and Lib Dems make massive gains in 2018 election.
2018 Election Result.
Libdems 257
UKIP 160
Tory 89
Labour 78
SNP 42
DUP 9
Other NI 10
PC 5
Libdems form coalition with tories as junior partners under Libdem prime minister Sir David Laws. 18 months into coalition 15 tories have defected to UKIP and tory party merges with Liberals to form the Liberal and Unionist Party known as Liberals south of the border and Unionists north of the Border and in Wales.
Nigel Farage stands down in 2018 election and is replaced with Douglas Carswell.
2023 Election Result
Lib 338
UKIP 205
Labour 76
SNP 10
DUP 9
NI 10
PC 3
Sir David Laws leads first Liberal majority government elected in a century.
Three years in 25 labour MPs defect to the Libs, rump Labour party merges with UKIP to form the United Kingdom Independent & Labour Party. Independent now also signifies total separation from the trade union movement.
2028 Election Result
UKIP 344
Libdem 280
SNP 10
DUP 10 (but takes UKILP whip)
NI 10 (but SDLP take UKILP whip)
PC 1
Douglas Carswell becomes Prime Minister.
Britain has returned to two party politics.
I have to say 3 things: One, Jim Murphy will go down like the captain of the Titanic in May. Two, no one in the Labour party reads The Economist. Three, no one in the country apart from Dan Hodges and John Rentoul have a high opinion of Blair.
While the plods much publicized 'day of reckoning' with its 'wave after wave of arrests' doesn't seem to have occurred either.
Is that because it was nothing more than an attempt to convince the media that the plods were taking some action, something which was stopped by people higher up the command chain, or perhaps some other reason ?
Whatever, it is surely worthy of a little investigation by Policing Minister Mike Penning ?
But then all those media reports of South Yorkshire plods collaborating with child rapists would be worthy of government investigation as well I should have thought.
Perhaps the government could ask Fiona Wolff or Lady Butler-Sloss to head an investigation ?
Actions cost votes.
If people had bothered to read/watch the news.
2015 GE:
Conservative 250
Labour 290
UKIP 5
SNP 10
Libdem 30
Greens: 5
Result: Labour / Lib Dem coalition. The other half of the Lib Dems leave in disgust, only to reappear magically in time for the 2020 GE.
2020 GE:
Conservative 200
Labour 100
UKIP -5
SNP 125
Libdem 500
Result: Rumours of a Lib Dem pact with the devil is widely discounted, as are claims that Labour only scraped 100 seats due to a Mr Evans of Highgate receiving 1.5 million postal votes due to an addressing mistake. The fact that the number of MPs elected does not equal the number of seats is fixed when all the Conservative and Labour MPs are found mysteriously drowned in the Fleet and impaled on London Bridge. UKIP gets a negative number of MPs due to a clerical error. Eating octopus becomes punishable by death.
2025 GE:
LibDem 755
Conservative: -10
Labour: -10
SNP: -10
Result: Clerical errors leads to all parties aside from the Lib Dems getting negative numbers of MPs. Further rumours of a Lib Dem pact with the devil are roundly denied by a Mr. C. Thulhu MBE, OBE, CBE, KGVO, KG, GCB, the Lib Dem PM, who further says that the devil is a puny creature. He also advises that 'worshipping the green guy' might be a good idea.
2030 GE:
The 2030 GE is cancelled due to the entire UK population having been moved to R'lyeh.
On that note, I hope posters and lurkers all haver a great 2015.
Is Fox left or right wing? What did he do, attempt to get a bit of what he wanted? No he was crass and stupid and compromised himself to such an extent that he resigned.
Davis? He walked out in a pique of either hysteria or self serving ambition.
Its not 'conservatives' or Cameroons' - its stupid right wing politicians. Will Carswell get a bit of what he wants? Don't make me laugh. The best he is going to get is to be captain of his own canoe.
As a comparison - who was Mrs Thatcher's first defence secretary? Arch wet Francys Pym - he even went on to replace Carrington. Under Cameron we have a right winger at the MoD and he blows it. Who was at Thatchers side virtually all the time? Willie Whitelaw - hardly right wing. Where is the loser of 2005? Nowhere. Davis could be serving his party and his country - but he tried to serve himself.
All the items on display were mass market machines, costing up to £500 - fair enough. There were four assistants there, but three of them were blocking an aisle arguing fiercely about whether one of them was carrying his headphones correctly. The fourth was a middle-aged lady. Hmm, mustn't be sexist or ageist. With misgivings, I said I wanted a high-end gaming laptop and asked her if they had a model I'd seen on their website in stock.
"Ah, you're a games player, eh?" she said affably. "I don't blame you. One has to pass the time somehow, eh? What's the laptop called?"
"MSI GS70 7QE, according to your website".
"But what's the brand?"
"MSI."
"No, the brand. The manufacturer."
"It's MSI."
"Huh? Well, let's see. (Types into computer.) Here it is!"
"Oh good. Can I have a look at it?"
"No, we don't have it. I think maybe the manufacturer doesn't make it any more."
"But it's on your website!"
"Yes..." (pensively). "Strange that. Well! Can I show you our special offer on tablets for £250?"
I gave up and went to Tesco and bought 5 pairs of socks for £5. Much more sensible really.
However, it does seem odd that there don't even in London seem to be alternatives to either mass market PC stores with uninformed assistants or little one-man outfits where they offer to assemble you a customised desktop. Can anyone recommend somewhere (preferably North London) to get a sensible discussion?
What I'm after, by the way, is a laptop that will play games that comes out now and over the next year or two - e.g. my current computer won't play Dragon Age's newest release. I reckon that graphics card, RAM and speed are the main issues.
And yes, yes, I need to concentrate on the election. But voters don't like being pestered after 8pm...
True but those are current rates. Many of the coupons are much higher and I doubt there's a socialist east of the channel who wouldn't try to lower them if Tsipras wins.
Italy, France, Spain, Portugal.
And what about poor Ireland. We did as we were told as look where it got us.
KYC courses for taxi drivers ?
plods get training for the difference between right and wrong ?
One more thing.
Like David Cameron or loathe him, he is a formidable campaigner. See AV and the Scottish referendum for evidence. He crushed his opponents. He even managed to nearly beat the main opposition in the have a moan special that is the euros.
As yet Dave hasn't started. He hasn't even turned up at the ground yet, let alone put his kit on or done the pre match stretches.
A NCA operation
Bringing in specialists to run Rotherham's Child Services/Protection department.
Supporting councils in courts who take out injunctions against suspected Groomers going anywhere children whom they aren't related to.
activity, not action. Sir Humphrey gives the appaearance that something is being done.
Come back when there are arrests and convictions and half the plods and civil servants have been sacked.
@politicshome: Vice Chair Labour Election Campaign Lucy Powell #wato : "Tony Blair, he has his experience from his era, that is not the era we now live in"
The Quiet Bat People are in charge now Tony.
His mysterious fantastical wealth doesn't help either.
You remind me of Ed Balls.
It's the wrong type of growth/activity/action
However here is a subtle theory on the Blair/Economist interview and then the tweeted recanting. There is nothing absolutely nothing more likely to endear an anti-Iraq war, ex Labour voter like me to Ed Milliband than to have him attacked by Tony Blair.
Could it all be a clever put up job?
The most important thing is the graphics card imo.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-appointed-lawyer-matthew-richardson-to-keep-bad-stuff-out-of-public-eye-9950798.html
Oh, you're talking about laptops.......
I'll get my coat.
Increasing Scottish autonomy might raise all sorts of questions about who can arrest who for what, and where....
When there are convictions come back and tell us all how wonderful things are. Currently the nation's leadership has decided to kick this in to the long grass like Hillsborough or Iraq.
The police force that could round up the BBC when visiting Cliff Richard appears remarkably reticent when presented with 1400 witnesses.
Still believe what you will.
http://www.johnlewis.com/electricals/laptops-netbooks/laptops/gaming=features80000398/c80000398