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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How LAB was completely under-rated by the betting markets a
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How LAB was completely under-rated by the betting markets as polls opened on May 6th 2010
Quite often in political betting a narrative builds up about the infallibility of the betting markets. That somehow because punters are wagering their own hard-earned cash their judgement is better.
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"We can build a country that works for everyday people." says Ed Miliband. Is that me? Am I one? I am a person, everyday.
Research suggests Hogmanay originated in Yorkshire
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/228282-obama-approval-at-highest-in-over-a-year-poll-finds
That said, if the current SNP polling was reflected in the ballot box, the Labour brand isn't as strong as some of us think.....
This thread meme long since died.
For balance.
@FT: We are predicting a Conservative-Labour coalition in the UK next year. See the rest of the FT 2015 forecasts here: http://t.co/suWZA6C9CK
In the last five years, they achieved the following,
1) A lower GE share of the vote than the Tories did in 1997
2) First opposition not to win the Euros in 30 years
3) On current polling are about to get thrashed in their heartland of Scotland. They could soon have only 2/3 more MPs in Scotland than the Scottish Tories
Plus the only Labour leader to win a majority in the last 40 years thinks Ed is crap and will lose the election.
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/12/my-predictions-for-2014-retrospective.html
I think the fun in Greece makes it a possibility.
Plus I was shocked to hear a Labour chap admit that a coalition with the SNP needed to be avoided at all costs.
Original prediction was published in "The World in 2015". The five key names have already been posted on previous threads....
Ed Miliband is facing calls from within his own party to take action to secure the election of more black and Asian Labour MPs, amid signs that key constituencies are shunning candidates from ethnic minorities.
Just one non-white candidate has been selected so far in the 34 seats where a sitting Labour MP is stepping down in the general election in May – the constituencies which should provide the best opportunities for the party to get new prospects elected.
By contrast, five Conservative associations among the 32 in constituencies where a sitting MP is retiring have chosen minority candidates.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-shuns-black-and-asian-candidates-in-winnable-seats-9950913.html
Currently 50/1
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/next-government
Probably mean the end of both parties as we know them, could be a good thing
Remember, all it requires is c. 7% lead for either Cons or Lab (a little less for Lab) and there's an outright winner in parliament. No coalition. Can I see that happening?
You bet.
Surely the wild card though has to be a Labour DUP UKIP coalition. Which, given that the latter are both largely working class parties is not as unthinkable as some might think.
One good thing about a Labour win (especially after Blairs comments) is that it would put the "you can only win from the centre" meme to rest.
Withdrawal symptoms: The internet-crack is not available! Expect someone to suggest a fund-rasing exercise....
That sort of attitude is hard to shift. Normally it doesn't matter, because parties have lots of floating voters on top of the core, but both Labour and Tory parties are now primarily getting their core votes, and in today's splintered landscape having the larger core vote may be decisive. Even the core doesn't ALWAYS turn out (cf. the Euros) but at GEs they normally do. The Labour vote at the moment is essentially the core plus the Red Liberals plus some personal votes. It may well be enough.
Incidentally, awesome speech by Merkel:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/dec/30/angela-merkel-criticises-pegida-far-right-group-germany
If we had direct European elections for President, I'd be tempted to vote for her.
@tonyblairoffice: TB: "My remarks have been mis-interpreted, I fully support Ed and my party and expect a Labour victory in the election."
Sentiments are nice: Realities are unavoidable. Merkel is a fallen star....
Edited-to-Add:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5t_PDU5RmBw
When I say we're moving I mean Robert is.
There won't be a grand coalition. Although, if we do end up with a fragmented nightmare, it'll be interesting/horrific to see what happens.
Although the pollsters have tried to correct that bias I suspect it still exists simply because of differential turnout. Predicting the number of people who say they support Labour but in the end can't be bothered to walk to the end of their street to the polling station is difficult. A leader like Ed who hardly stirs enthusiasm is likely to aggravate the problem. I expect Labour's vote share to underperform the final polls. This may not make much difference in seats of course.
In contrast, as Mike has brilliantly demonstrated with his table, the betting markets tend to exaggerate the tories' performance. It seems likely this is on the back of wishful thinking by those who have deeper pockets and can influence the market. To suggest that selling tories is a sure fire winner on the spin markets as a result may be going too far but it is certainly the place to start.
I think it is more likely than the SNP in coalition at any rate.
Party No. of Seats
Labour 300
Conservatives 270
LibDems 30
SNP 25
UKIP 3
Plaid Cymru 2
Greens 1
N. Ireland Parties 18
Speaker 1
Total 650
Do Labour Party member really think this man would be good for the country..really
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/12/2015-may-and-everything-after.html
I think I broadly agree with your predictions.
Though my only caveat is that Labour can win a majority on maybe as low as 33%.
Labour 286, Conservative 267, Libdems 30, SNP 40, UKIP 6, PC 2, Green 0, NI 18, Speaker 1
Are the SNP still looking for the removal of Trident to do a deal with Ed ?
For me the real questions isn't which seat UKIP win, its which seats UKIP cause someone else to lose. They will be averaging something like 4000 votes in each constituency on a 12% vote, that a more than quite a few majorities.
I think some on here are underestimating the political impact in England of a labour party doing a deal with the SNP to be in government.
I may be wrong.
The SNP are anti-Nuclear and that includes energy. Trident is a liquid-fueled rocket that launches various decoys and 'instant-sunshine' outwith Scots' waters.
Their problem is still Faslane: Trafalgar, Vanguard, Astute and "Successor" still do not conform to their stated policy. Ergo: Trident is not the issue....
I expect the Conservatives will come out in a tight band of between 285 to 305 seats. There may not be very much difference at all between the lower part of that band, and the higher part, in terms of votes. There will be plenty of hyper-marginal results.
There are shorter odds out there than 50/1, but the realistic odds are VERY much shorter than that on the basis of the polls. For example, on Indigo's figures (which are entirely plausible) a Labour/SNP con and sup arrangement would still only have an overall majority of 1 in theory (maybe 5/6 in practice). Not enough for a stable government under fixed term parliaments. It would have to be a three-way deal, and when you start talking about the Lib Dems and SNP in coalition with each other and someone else, at that point a Grand Coalition starts looking like a much better option.
Why is Ed opposing it tooth and nail...???
Once you start coming down to personalities, it seems staggeringly improbable.
This would mean that the Lib Dems would remain the third largest party by a relatively comfortable margin. I am guessing very high 20s, possibly 30 for them.
I think it is looking increasingly likely Labour will be the largest party. The tories are simply not making the recovery that they needed to to be competitive. Part of this is of course the strength of UKIP which I confess has surprised me. I would guess Labour will be very close to 300.
I agree with antifrank that the Greens will stay at 1 although their increased strength will probably cost Labour their majority. I also think UKIP will do much worse than antifrank is indicating. I would be surprised if they end up with more than 3 seats but then I have been surprised by them before.
All of this would put the tories in the high 270s, nowhere near the calamities of the Blair era but out of power. I think Javid is an excellent bet for the next leader, much better than May.
My guess would be that we will have a minority Labour government with some support from the Lib Dems short of a Coalition as they try to consolidate a diminished party under new leadership. I completely agree with antifrank that this should be Steve Webb but that it will be Farron.
Quite apart from absolutely proving UKIP's point that 'they are all the same'
Is it wishful thinking on the part of the FT? Or is there really something about American politics I don't get?
Well if they really want to catapult UKIP from 15% to 30%....
But that seems extremely improbable to me. It is almost inconceivable to my mind that the leader of the largest party would not be PM, with the leader of the other party as Chancellor, which would solve both problems at a stroke. Move Osborne to the Foreign Office and make Balls HS, which are roles they would be better suited to anyway.
CNN US 2016 general election
•Hillary Clinton (D) 54% [59%] (58%)
•Jeb Bush (R) 41% [36%] (36%)
•Hillary Clinton (D) 56% [56%] (52%)
•Paul Ryan (R) 41% [39%] (43% )
•Hillary Clinton (D) 56% [56%] (47%)
•Chris Christie (R) 39% [37%] (47%)
•Hillary Clinton (D) 58% [58%] (54%)
•Rand Paul (R) 38% [38%] (40%)
•Hillary Clinton (D) 56%
•Ben Carson (R) 35%
•Hillary Clinton (D) 59% [57%] (55%)
•Mike Huckabee (R) 38% [38%] (39%)
•Hillary Clinton (D) 60%
•Ted Cruz (R) 35%
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2014/images/12/24/poll2.pdf
Labour Minority, confidence and supply from Lib Dems
Labour Minority, confidence and supply from SNP
Lab-SNP coalition
Whisky & revolver.
Lab-Con (Grand) Coalition.
Lab minority, c&s from UKIP
There's plenty to think about
The 2 things I probably would most question
6. The election campaign won't change very much, but a lot of people will try to persuade you otherwise
I'm expecting a touch of "Sheffield Rally" about Labour's election campaign, although perhaps more drawn out. Labour to enter the election campaign with a broadly equal (with the Tories) polling position, probably very wobbly polls during the campaign, and Labour to modestly underperform the polls on the day.
7. The next government will be a Labour minority government
JackW doesn't think so. So for that reason, and the reason above, probably not.
However it pans out, it will be fascinating.
Due to platform changes I cannot post anecdotes from people who reportedly worked-with/knew the likes of 'lickle-lord-richie-peston', 'Ed-n-Balls; and his ilk at the time. Maybe, like :tumbleweed:, something will blow hot-and-cold through our shared historical thoughts.....
I say again that she looks a long shot to me for the presidency. I have taught American politics, although I wouldn't describe myself as an expert on them, and I really can't see her winning given the enormous practical barriers she faces.
Feel free to rub my nose in it if I am proven wrong in November 2016!
As for 'name recognition' well virtually every American knows Jeb Bush and she beats him comfortably, and most know 2012 VP nominee Paul Ryan who she also beats comfortably. Cruz, Christie, Paul and Huckabee are also hardly unknowns (Huckabee has run before and the others have high profiles) the only real unknown is Carson. At this stage Obama was beating Romney, Bush beating Kerry, Bush beating Gore and Clinton beating Dole, McCain v Obama was tighter, but of course the Lehmans crash had an impact there. I would expect her to run and to win
One seat the Greens may fancy their chances in that you don't mention is Stroud, where they have a strong presence on the local council. They won't win it - if anyone other than Labour win it given how useless Neil Carmichael is and how personally popular David Drew is, then Labour are on course to come third nationally - but they might make a big effort there and possibly even come second.
I have just been observing politicians for a long time. They can talk themselves into almost anything and persuade themselves that they are being altruistic.
Darling's not sitting in the GE, so we're safe from that particular grand coalition of monotony.
She is 2.42 to lay on Betfair for the presidency, you better get piling on for a 40% return !
It may be racism, or it could be tactical decisions. For example, Ealing Southall at the last General Election, candidates were ...
Labour Virendra Sharma
Conservative Gurcharan Singh
Liberal Democrat Nigel Bakhai
Green Suneil Basu
Christian Mehboob Anil
English Democrats Sati Chaggar
Make of that what you will.
Oh yes...that's the official title of the Prime Minister and has been since 1902...that would cause confusion, wouldn't it?
In short, it is not going to happen under any circumstance short of global war.
300,000,000 Americans. What are the chances of the new candidates being closely related to previous and recent presidents? If it happened in the Third World, we'd suspect nepotism.
(and so is the headline, although I work on the principle, will it make John Rentoul's QTWTAIN list, if so, then I shouldn't use that headline)