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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The genius of George Osborne: His government’s failure on the deficit is being ignored
Given that the key objective of the coalition government since May 2010 has been to deal with the deficit then you would have thought that the failure to meet targets on this key matter would have been the dominant part of the media’s coverage of yesterday’s autumn statement.
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Seems apt to repost this:
Do Voters Even Care About The Deficit? http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/mehdi-hasan/autumn-statement-deficit_b_6261134.html
Will the Westminster bubble ever get the message?
The markets see a choice between Balls, who made the mess in the first place, and who would be given no benefit of the doubt at all when it comes to slipping the end dates for reducing the deficit, never mind that his publicly stated policy is to borrow more to fund capital expenditure. On the other side they see Osborne, who didn't make the mess, and so far has all the key economic indicators heading in the right direction, even if not as fast as he first hoped.
I would be very surprised if the markets actually give a damn about him hitting the suggested deadlines, if it takes a few years longer, they get more interest, what they are going to be much more concerned about is that their investment is safe, and the government is always going to be in a position to make its interest payments in a timely matter... in other words to feel comfortable that the UK isn't going to be the next Italy or Greece.
I seriously need a life
I've been spending the last few days examining lots of sexy vaccines for diseases I didn't know existed... always cheers me up
Anyways nice to see you banker chappies getting up early, I'm off out soon to move a factory electrician arrives at 7.30.
I have a breakfast at 7, followed by another day of lectures with titles such as "regulatory requirements for conventional and next generation vaccines" I shall try not to sleep through it...
It all seems to me to boil down to the fact that Balls went to a second rate public school and Ozzy went to Eton. No contest:))))))
By no means did I agree with everything Maggie introduced, but the privatisation of council homes was a stroke of genius. British like to own their homes. Osborne's revision on stamp duty is a smart move. A very very smart move.
With a Budget still to come in March I maintain my view 80%+ that the Conservatives will win the GE outright. They have too many cards to play.
To be fair I think Ball's academic economic credentials are probably substantially better then Ozzy (Osborne wasn't Kennedy Economics Scholar at Harvard, Balls was), but his economic good sense is blinded by his politics.
Except that Ozzy didn't go to Eton.
And Nottingham High School is really rather good.
Apart from that: brilliant!
That said, given where we are, we probably need a period of fiscal consolidation (debt repayment) to reduce the levels of debt as a % of GDP as they are high enough to reduce our flexibility. I'd like to see debt of 30-40% of GDP as a reasonable long-term target.
London: 31
South: 25
Mid/Wales: 30
North: 43
Scotland: 21
Worse, the Conservatives can continue to use the deficit as a stick to beat Labour with.
Ed Gromit From The Red Planet Will Never Be Prime Minister
They have no hope in May
Was Gordon Brown the man who sold the world gold reserves to the Martians for a pittance ?
Personally I have no doubt Ozzy will fail to meet the surplus timeframe. Another recession / market meltdown / Eurosplat will have happened in the meantime. But I don't care. The direction of travel and willingness to accommodate 'events' without losing sight of that end point is crystal clear. And right. It can be no other way in a globalising competitive world where 'there is no money' and we have an unaffordable state.
Labour are a party without a plan or a vision that reflects the reality of the world we live in.
Well at least the ningis exchange rate has to be better now ?
The BBC and Guardian both lead with "Public spending is set to fall to levels not seen since the 1930s" as though it is a bad thing. - personally I've no problems with that.
The Sun really need to improve their photoshop skills....
That may be ok in times of 'plenty', but when the people earning the money are feeling a squeeze, it's not an attractive proposition.
Mike Smithson in dreamland again, Trying with all his might to blot out UKIP and anointing Osborne. It won't work. Even the BBC see's through your nonsense. The 30 pieces of silver bribe to the electorate is looking more tarnished by the minute.
http://news.sky.com/story/1385280/more-austerity-to-follow-predictable-statement
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30323690
Like trashing banking regulation
Unfortunate for Ed that he, and numpties like Blanchflower, predicted an unemployment crisis...
Would reply but busy looking in Back of the proverbial drawer just in case I have some Ningis notes left over from the last holiday. Do Paddy power take Ningis?
The Conservatives have clearly failed to address the budget deficit. Any mention of it will just remind voters that the current government have wasted five years, and added debt to deficit.
In a recent joint appearance on Mr Marr's programme Messrs Balls and Osborne apparently both ducked questions on the deficit.
"...the presenter was visibly exasperated as the Chancellor and his Labour would-be replacement failed utterly to address his principal question, asked over and over again: what will they do to eliminate this country’s budget deficit — the annual gap between what the state spends and what it receives through taxes — currently running at £100billion?"
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2855470/DOMINIC-LAWSON-wish-Osborne-Balls-stop-trying-bribe-money.html
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/12/all-main-parties-are-united-conspiracy-silence-about-scale-austerity-come
Missed a bit there let me add it for you....,
"The Conservatives have clearly failed to address the budget deficit created by Labour despite warnings to the labour government since 2003 "
Yup that's more accurate
I dont think they are even that fussed about cuts, they heard a lot of noise from example from Police about how cutting budgets would be the end of the world, and yet a 30% cut in the police budget has been absorbed, and crime is down. The public knows that most public services are hugely inefficient and feather-bedded, and are unlikely to get that exercised about other large numbers getting smaller if it doesn't appear to affect them and theirs.
The magic money tree has purple foliage!
– UKIP will leave the EU and save at least £8bn pa in net contributions.
http://www.theguardian.com/housing-network/2013/apr/19/1930s-house-building-economic-recovery
But do bear in mind that Chamberlain was a poor PM but a great CoE; so stick to what you know George!
Shocked and astounded that the Mirror isn't positive about George Osborne.
Ed wishes by the way George had balanced the budget in this Parliament and he is disappointed that that was not done.
From that point on it was really shit
What people believe in is the magic money tree and yesterday it got another hard shaking.
It was a very Gordon Brown like performance - lots of talk about 'grwth', which is assumed will continue for ever (because recessions never happen do they), moves to get house prices rising and lots of fiddley changes.
Now some of these changes are doubtless worthwhile but others will have negative effects and others pointless beyond their obvious vote buying purpose (the child APT being an example here).
The underlying similarities between Brown's and Osborne's economic strategies explains why Osborne was so ineffective during the recession and also why Balls is so ineffective now.
Take a look at what the OBN said about Osborne's 2010 Budget:
http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk/wordpress/docs/junebudget_annexc.pdf
Assumptions of pay rises of over 5% in 2014, 2015 and 2016 and the balance of payments deficit at near zero.
Now take a look at what the OBN are predicting now:
http://cdn.budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/December_2014_EFO-web513.pdf
Big pay rises, a huge improvement in the balance of payments deficit from its now record level and, on page 76, an immediate and massive household borrowing surge of around £100bn per year.
It seems that the OBN can only pretend that the government borrowing will fall if household borrowing replaces it.
Well maybe it will and maybe it wont.
But borrowing £100bn plus each and every year is the action of a country living beyond its means and it makes no effective difference if that borrowing is by households or by the government.
Betfair's half year PBT to 31.10.14 has increased by 112% from £31.7m to £67.3M compared with the corresponding period last year.
So, when you win 80 seats in 2015 and become a key part of the next Coalition government, how will you reduce spending by £100 billion?
(Specifics please. And "Europe" is unrealistic - the net cost is probably about £10bn, but a it's likely that much of that spending would be replaced by UK equivalent programmes)
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/alan-titchmarsh-ukip-saying-what-4744382
Current totals
Lab 20%
LDem 1%
Other 6%
UKIP 67%
Con 5%
Not Vote 5%
Nice to see Mirror readers voting Labour (in a fit of mischief I encouraged the least favoured by Mirror Editorial option)
Harriet to St. Paul's Girls...
Is one regarded as posher or better or takes people from different background than the other.
And does anyone think of Harrow as a London public school now or is that still compared with Eton, Winchester etc ?
Then 5 or 6 cops jumped him??? One around the neck.
I always support the police but WTF?
It really is a major erosion of the welfare state. Probably an overdue one, and only do-able while unemployment is low and jobs being created.
Where is ALP when we need his yellow boxes?
Westminster compared to Eton and Winchester (although rather rich but not posh parents)
St. Paul's seen as the best London day school - different positioning entirely
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/12/01/obama-police-body-cameras_n_6250146.html
But Harriet could not possibly have gone to a public Skool. So I think you are very wrong there.
I mean she has spent here entire life and political career fighting against public and grammar stools so she would never ever ever ever have gone to one herself.
But Labour, Conservatives and LDs have proven their unwillingness to cut spending in government so UKIP win the 'fiscal conservative' contest by default.
"Reducing debts we leave to our grandchildren
– UKIP will leave the EU and save at least £8bn pa in net contributions.
– UKIP will cut the foreign aid budget by £9bn pa, prioritising disaster relief and schemes which provide water and inoculation against preventable diseases.
– UKIP will scrap the HS2 project which is uneconomical and unjustified.
– UKIP will abolish the Department of Energy and Climate Change and scrap green subsidies.
– UKIP will abolish the Department for Culture Media and Sport.
– UKIP will reduce Barnett Formula spending and give devolved parliaments and assemblies further tax powers to compensate."
http://www.ukip.org/policies_for_people
http://www.ukip.org/speeches_from_annual_conference
So Ed, how is France's bold new vision for the economy working out then...?
Bit surprised how little discussion there is generally about inflation. I had a quick scan of the OBR's document - they are predicting below 2% until 2017. This is big news, surely - given the years and years of above the BoE expected figure. All the flim flam about this autumn statement will be long forgotten if we enter into deflation.
The change in stamp duty will benefit my grandchildren, might benefit my children, but how will it benefit me?
I can show an old ConHome comment where I suggested the IHT change before Osborne announced it.
Although I've always thought that Brown's loss of bottle happened during the Labour conference and not because of anything Osborne said, whether or not Osborne got his big idea from me.
What a numpty.
The Tories are nasty, corrupt, in it for themselves and their fat-cat bankster buddies, and don't care for the poor, sick or disabled.
Not being the Tories gets them instantly a very decent core and then if they promise to copy the Cons that will get them a few more and then if they have a moment of clarity and some fancy policy (just needs one by now) that will sweep up a few more.
Could easily do it.
This abysmal failure means there is no replacement for the services cut by the Tories.
Labour will easily win the next election because of this.
(Edit: "smarter" not as in academically or intellectually smarter)
Or if they work in the building or home furnishing trade they may have more overtime.
However if they are a diversity coordinator they might be worse off.
Etc.
Can't wait until May when Labour get in and then we can follow France as Ed wants us too
Gushing front page from the Sun tommorow 1 point
2 more points for the bingo card