Letwin has in the past told a group of business people in his West Dorset constituency that within 5 years of a Tory government the NHS will not exist.Osborne is by stealth following the 'shrink the state and any vestiges of altruism agenda.' If the Tory party come to power you will have to rely on your own resources.Sometimes 'cake'will be thrown to the masses such as the stamp duty flavour but on the whole it will be 'spend your own money on staying healthy.'Letwin is still underground planning the next round of cuts, his is the brain which shapes the agenda , George and Dave are the two puppets and mouthpieces.
Unfortunately, just at the point at which the masterplan for destruction of the NHS had been completed, he then mistakenly discarded it in a Regent's Park waste-basket.
I thought the most telling thing yesterday was not Osborne's Statement, which was modest (but effective) in its aims, but the total absence of an alternative Labour narrative on the economy. As someone who follows politics far too closely, I genuinely don't have a clue what Labour would be doing if now in power. If I don't know, what the hell are the punters who pay bugger all attention to politics to make of it?
In four months they will be on the campaign trail. Selling what? I am not getting any hints of an alternative to the Tories' "steady as she goes".
Their manifesto is going to be a bundle of laughs. As will watching Ed explaining it for a month on the telly! ;-)
I still think there is a very real chance of a spectacular failure by Labour during the election campaign, when their lack of an economic offering is exposed and Ed, looking like a goldfish, going round and round in his bowl, mechanically spouts "Bedroom Tax" every six seconds....
Dear Mr S - the government have been dealing with the deficit. The structural deficit. It is to Osborne's credit that when faced with outside pressures, like the Eurozone crisis, it did not increase its cuts to match an arbitary target but it extended the period to reduce the deficit. It has continued to cut its spending despite criticism from Balls and people like Cable. It is well o0n its way to meet its target.
Indeed may I add Mr S that since you are a well known LibDem then you should be full of praise for the steady measured pace of the reduction, not carping, since even now LibDem Cable says the govt (ie to him the Tory - you would never guess he was in govt) is too 'brutal'.
The economy is roaring ahead at present, forecast to grow 3% in 2014, yet the budget deficit this financial year is now forecast to fall by only £6.2bn.
If the forecasts are to be believed, the budget deficit will be cut by a whopping £35bn in 2016-17. Just like when Brown was Chancellor, cuts in the budget deficit are forecast for future years, but Osborne can't get it down now.
Were it not for the fact that the two Eds lead the weakest Opposition in my memory, perhaps even since the beginning of Unix, any chance the Conservatives had at the next election would have sunk without a trace, as their reputation for economic competence was torn to shreds.
And the govt are cutting spending. Significantly. If you want the deficit cut quicker then what taxes do you increased? The deficit is where it is because of taxes the govt have cut - allowances and fuel duty, and because of the economies inability to prodice revenue given the level of growth. This is why it needs to continue to cut spending. The govt are chasing tax avoidance to the tune of 9 billion over 5 years. It could have cut spending quicker in the face of the EZ crisis, but that would have stuffed the wider economy. Of course no govt is perfet, butit has done well.
Patrick Posts: 1,962 12:33PM A genuine question for the lefties here on PB: What would you now do economically?
Speaking AS IF I WAS A LEFTIE"
Well we would enter government and try to repair the damage caused by the Toty baby eaters ( remember they killed your first born and raised your houses to the ground with fire) we would ensure a totalitarian government led by Marxist Ed (whose dad couldn't give a shit about this country as does his son) and we will lead you into the sunny uplands of more immigration, government handouts and ensuring that the brain drain of the 70's will pale into insignificance compared to our Labour values of a race to the bottom
Anybody know why Dr Vince remains part of the government when he disagree's with everything it's doing and hate's every minute of it?
Is the coalition like the Hotel California - You can check out anytime you like but you can never leave?
How very dare you attempt to chastise St Vince of the Cable.
Dire lickspittle fair weather supporters such as your miserable self should cower away and retire behind the sofa whilst uber Coalitionistas take the fight to Gromit and the red planet hordes.
It's hard to support the coalition when one part of it looks like they are walking The Green Mile.
However, my X is firmly in Boy George's Box at the moment!
Osborne is getting a mildly obliging press because voters are smart enough to realise that despite the missed targets the deficit is not George Osborne's fault.
He had nothing to do with inheriting the £175billion or so deficit, and voters know that, hence why he can get away with not completely clearing it. I suspect most voters feel that halving the deficit is a pretty decent effort, because they know when politicians promise things (like eliminating the deficit) it's very unlikely to happen.
On the whole I think he's managed the economy pretty well. A huge deficit must be the biggest pain in the arse and millstone any chancellor can inherit, and Osborne inherited a crippling one and managed the economy without a) people starving to death, b) IMF bail outs and c) risking anything near anarchy and crowds on the street.
Financially, his management is easy to point fingers at, but politically, it's a good effort.
Labour's core voters hate his guts and want him castrated, but that's more to do with Osborne being a Tory than any cool analysis of his economic management.
As a non-tribal pragmatist I suspect that no economists ever know exactly how the economy will go, and therefore chancellors have to choose a direction of travel, take some risks with judgement and hope for some luck. Osborne's chosen direction of travel appears to be the right one. Not everything has gone his way, but he has had some luck too, and Ed Balls (arguably a more experienced and learned economist than Osborne) has failed to land punches.
Balls's 'too far, too fast' sounds clunky now that he's arguing that Osborne hasn't cleared the deficit quickly enough. Balls is a smart, robust, confident streetfighting politician, and one of Osborne's biggest triumphs is to get through four and a half years of difficult economic conditions without taking a clean punch from him.
Guido Fawkes retweeted Sky News Newsdesk @SkyNewsBreak 2m2 minutes ago Metropolitan Police says the Conservative MP Mark #Pritchard has been arrested following an allegation of rape
I thought the most telling thing yesterday was not Osborne's Statement, which was modest (but effective) in its aims, but the total absence of an alternative Labour narrative on the economy. As someone who follows politics far too closely, I genuinely don't have a clue what Labour would be doing if now in power. If I don't know, what the hell are the punters who pay bugger all attention to politics to make of it?
In four months they will be on the campaign trail. Selling what? I am not getting any hints of an alternative to the Tories' "steady as she goes".
Their manifesto is going to be a bundle of laughs. As will watching Ed explaining it for a month on the telly! ;-)
I still think there is a very real chance of a spectacular failure by Labour during the election campaign, when their lack of an economic offering is exposed and Ed, looking like a goldfish, going round and round in his bowl, mechanically spouts "Bedroom Tax" every six seconds....
Wishful thinking methinks
I'm not sure. Has there been a campaign where Ed has really shined?
He was complicit in the dire YES2Av campaign. I can't think of a local elections campaign he's done well in really.
The 2011 Scottish election campaign and independence referendum? Less said about those the better.
The Euro elections campaign wasn't great....
Not sure Ed's a natural campaigner and whilst there's unlikely to be anything as bad as Gillian Duffy in 2015, I think the general consensus will be that Labour's campaign will be pretty poor.
Ed Balls is far more qualified in economics than George Osborne. Balls graduated with a first in PPE from Oxford, ahead of Cameron? George just managed a second class degree in Modern History, how does that qualify him to be chancellor?
That's not a great comparison for a Labourite to make, do you recall the qualifications of Mr James Gordon Brown, your sainted Iron Chancellor and Savior of the Universe ? That's right, a degree in History from University of Edinburgh.
Oh dear, metropolitan snobbery gets everywhere nowadays. If Edinburgh was good enough for Darwin, Hume, Maxwell, Adam Smith, Simpson, RLS, Conan Doyle etc...
Unaccustomed as I am to defending Broon, he started his degree at 16 and was apparently offered a place at Oxford.
'Brown was apparently offered a place at Oxford but made the choice to go to north of the border instead. As The Telegraph’s Alan Cochrane writes in his Scottish referendum diaries, Brown confided in him, ‘I wish now that I had gone. I think I missed something by not going.’ Well, as Cochrane pointed out to Brown at the time, he made it to Prime Minister anyway, overcoming the Oxbridge dominance at the top of government.'
Patrick Posts: 1,962 12:33PM A genuine question for the lefties here on PB: What would you now do economically?
Speaking AS IF I WAS A LEFTIE"
Well we would enter government and try to repair the damage caused by the Toty baby eaters ( remember they killed your first born and raised your houses to the ground with fire) we would ensure a totalitarian government led by Marxist Ed (whose dad couldn't give a shit about this country as does his son) and we will lead you into the sunny uplands of more immigration, government handouts and ensuring that the brain drain of the 70's will pale into insignificance compared to our Labour values of a race to the bottom
I will while at an international airport racing from one plane to another have a stern word with my I phone thingy to make sure it never makes this terrible error again . Failing that I will ask my daughter to set the thing up such that I am never picked up on the spelling of one specific word when the ret of the message IS ABSOLUTELY TRUE
I am getting daggers from the flight safety attendant right now
Anybody know why Dr Vince remains part of the government when he disagree's with everything it's doing and hate's every minute of it?
Is the coalition like the Hotel California - You can check out anytime you like but you can never leave?
How very dare you attempt to chastise St Vince of the Cable.
Dire lickspittle fair weather supporters such as your miserable self should cower away and retire behind the sofa whilst uber Coalitionistas take the fight to Gromit and the red planet hordes.
It's hard to support the coalition when one part of it looks like they are walking The Green Mile.
However, my X is firmly in Boy George's Box at the moment!
"... at the moment!"
Don't dither you wretched man. Shout it from the rooftops !!
As we meander toward the fag end of the political year perhaps PB might consider its' own Westminster political awards :
Politician of the year.
Nigel Farage (unfortunately!)
Government Minister of the year - MoS and above.
George Osborne (runner-up: Steve Webb)
Shadow Minister of the year - MoS and above.
I can't think of one
Government Minister of the year - Below MoS.
Penny Mordaunt
Shadow Minister of the year - Below MoS.
Lord Adonis
Coalition Backbencher of the year.
Owen Paterson
Opposition Backbencher of the year.
Simon Danczuk
Some reasonable nominations there. But I would like to nominate Alec Salmond for politician of the year. To get nearly 45% of Scots to vote for a platform that made the 1983 Labour manifesto look like a sound program for government was an astonishing feat and one I sincerely hope no one else will ever come close to matching.
DavidL --- Osborne said his statement would involve more tightening right at the start. So really you cannot blame him if the headlines ignore it. Spending cuts will continue since they are needed. But Osborne has already announced a cut in tax breaks for banks and also the new 'google tax' which itself is long overdue, all of which will come into force in the next parliament. This will amount to several billion pounds a year and the govt are continuing to close tax avoidance loopholes. We should also remember that corporation tax revenues and higher rate revenues continue to grow following the cut in rates.
There seems little question that the determination to cut the structural deficit is there. Plus by the looks of it the determination to see that the economy generates the revenues its should when it is in growth.
Tory MP Mark Pritchard arrested Breaking news Conservative MP for the Wrekin, Mark Pritchard, has been arrested following an incident in central London.
Tory MP Mark Pritchard arrested Breaking news Conservative MP for the Wrekin, Mark Pritchard, has been arrested following an incident in central London.
Patrick Posts: 1,962 12:33PM A genuine question for the lefties here on PB: What would you now do economically?
Speaking AS IF I WAS A LEFTIE"
Well we would enter government and try to repair the damage caused by the Toty baby eaters ( remember they killed your first born and raised your houses to the ground with fire) we would ensure a totalitarian government led by Marxist Ed (whose dad couldn't give a shit about this country as does his son) and we will lead you into the sunny uplands of more immigration, government handouts and ensuring that the brain drain of the 70's will pale into insignificance compared to our Labour values of a race to the bottom
I will while at an international airport racing from one plane to another have a stern word with my I phone thingy to make sure it never makes this terrible error again . Failing that I will ask my daughter to set the thing up such that I am never picked up on the spelling of one specific word when the ret of the message IS ABSOLUTELY TRUE
I am getting daggers from the flight safety attendant right now
love Moses Xxxx
Written in jest - hence my deliberate misspelling of the word 'baited'. Guess you didn't notice that. As for the rest that was obviously a SHOUTY rant and not to be taken seriously - wasn't it ;-) ?
Tory MP Mark Pritchard arrested Breaking news Conservative MP for the Wrekin, Mark Pritchard, has been arrested following an incident in central London.
I thought the most telling thing yesterday was not Osborne's Statement, which was modest (but effective) in its aims, but the total absence of an alternative Labour narrative on the economy. As someone who follows politics far too closely, I genuinely don't have a clue what Labour would be doing if now in power. If I don't know, what the hell are the punters who pay bugger all attention to politics to make of it?
In four months they will be on the campaign trail. Selling what? I am not getting any hints of an alternative to the Tories' "steady as she goes".
Their manifesto is going to be a bundle of laughs. As will watching Ed explaining it for a month on the telly! ;-)
I still think there is a very real chance of a spectacular failure by Labour during the election campaign, when their lack of an economic offering is exposed and Ed, looking like a goldfish, going round and round in his bowl, mechanically spouts "Bedroom Tax" every six seconds....
Wishful thinking methinks
The people that Ed has surrounded himself with have the political nous of a hatstand. Witness their efforts in the past few weeks. Yes, their man has been in the press. But I suspect they all rather wish he hadn't been.
And week after week at PMQs, we see Ed has not the wits to reframe his second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth questions when Cameron has swatted him away in answering the first.
Labour have had a pretty easy ride to date through the term of this Coalition. They have not been the focus of attention. Because there has been nothing to focus upon. They simply do not have a narrative that the media can justify spending time on.
That will change once we are into the New Year. There being no Labour narrative becomes a story in itself then.
The Guardian seems absolutely shit scared this morning. Osborne did a good job I think. Stamp duty has long been a horrible tax, reforming it will definitely help ordinary people.
Otherwise it's a case of "job not done, don't hand the economy back to the people wwho buggered it in the first place."
The Telegraph @Telegraph 1h1 hour ago Nigel Farage wears the wrong trousers after a champagne-fulled stumble at Gogglebox guesthouse http://fw.to/SfPAoPO
The Telegraph needs some decent editors.
Looks like a great time was had by all present.
..... and drinking beer out of Champagne flutes, doesn't that tell us something about Farage?
Yep, it tells us that Nigel farage is not bothered by the shape of the vessel he is drinking from. To tell you a secret, I'm not bothered either.
You would have fitted in really well in Burnham's Stafford. Hey ho.....tough time coming when the utter muppet is voted back in next May hey?
As we meander toward the fag end of the political year perhaps PB might consider its' own Westminster political awards :
Politician of the year.
Nigel Farage (unfortunately!)
Government Minister of the year - MoS and above.
George Osborne (runner-up: Steve Webb)
Shadow Minister of the year - MoS and above.
I can't think of one
Government Minister of the year - Below MoS.
Penny Mordaunt
Shadow Minister of the year - Below MoS.
Lord Adonis
Coalition Backbencher of the year.
Owen Paterson
Opposition Backbencher of the year.
Simon Danczuk
Some reasonable nominations there. But I would like to nominate Alec Salmond for politician of the year. To get nearly 45% of Scots to vote for a platform that made the 1983 Labour manifesto look like a sound program for government was an astonishing feat and one I sincerely hope no one else will ever come close to matching.
Alex Salmond for sure; his lack of preparation for the currency and other issues saved the Union for a generation.
Tory MP Mark Pritchard arrested on rape allegations
Lucky for UKIP he didn't defect?!
I don't want to say anything I shouldn't, so mods feel free to amend or delete, but is that the same guy (Croydon possibly?) who was deselected for domestic abuse?
Tory MP Mark Pritchard arrested Breaking news Conservative MP for the Wrekin, Mark Pritchard, has been arrested following an incident in central London.
Mr. Foxinsox, the currency issue was baffling. It was pointed out early on that saying 'we'll keep the pound' had, er, issues. Mind you, it was staggering to see so many Scots interviewed on the street during the campaign claim it was 'just as much our pound'.
That's like claiming 'it's just as much my house' before you divorce your wife and move house.
The media were inept, failing to point out oil money (assuming a price of $100 a barrel...) would be used on both current spending and to establish a wealth fund.
Tory MP Mark Pritchard arrested on rape allegations
I don't want to say anything I shouldn't, so mods feel free to amend or delete, but is that the same guy (Croydon possibly?) who was deselected for domestic abuse?
Patrick Posts: 1,962 12:33PM A genuine question for the lefties here on PB: What would you now do economically?
Speaking AS IF I WAS A LEFTIE"
Well we would enter government and try to repair the damage caused by the Toty baby eaters ( remember they killed your first born and raised your houses to the ground with fire) we would ensure a totalitarian government led by Marxist Ed (whose dad couldn't give a shit about this country as does his son) and we will lead you into the sunny uplands of more immigration, government handouts and ensuring that the brain drain of the 70's will pale into insignificance compared to our Labour values of a race to the bottom
I will while at an international airport racing from one plane to another have a stern word with my I phone thingy to make sure it never makes this terrible error again . Failing that I will ask my daughter to set the thing up such that I am never picked up on the spelling of one specific word when the ret of the message IS ABSOLUTELY TRUE
I am getting daggers from the flight safety attendant right now
love Moses Xxxx
Written in jest - hence my deliberate misspelling of the word 'baited'. Guess you didn't notice that. As for the rest that was obviously a SHOUTY rant and not to be taken seriously - wasn't it ;-) ?
Gosh Missed that in between check in and stripped almost naked at security. When it beeped ( as it normally does due to my travel arrangements - no not metals) I chose the lady security guard to frisk me down. Aaccording to the 20 stone heavily tattooed male security guard I don't get a choice
Tory media backs Tory politician shock. In a way even Gordon Brown managed to pull off this kind of stuff, which in some ways is harder given he came from the left. He wasn't a great strategist and neither I suspect is Osborne. Both however are good at making 'friends' in the press and have benefited from being in the right place at the right time. Osborne has had the added advantage of also benefiting from the disgraceful acquiescence of the Lib Dem leadership. Will Cable now resign? And what is Clegg's strategy? Presumably he hopes that by being 'Tory lite' he can get tactical Tory voters in Hallam. I imagine Danny Alexander thinks the same about Inverness. Shameful.
Tory MP Mark Pritchard arrested on rape allegations
Lucky for UKIP he didn't defect?!
I don't want to say anything I shouldn't, so mods feel free to amend or delete, but is that the same guy (Croydon possibly?) who was deselected for domestic abuse?
No that was Andrew Pelling, who is now a member of the Labour Party
As we meander toward the fag end of the political year perhaps PB might consider its' own Westminster political awards :
Politician of the year.
Nigel Farage (unfortunately!)
Government Minister of the year - MoS and above.
George Osborne (runner-up: Steve Webb)
Shadow Minister of the year - MoS and above.
I can't think of one
Government Minister of the year - Below MoS.
Penny Mordaunt
Shadow Minister of the year - Below MoS.
Lord Adonis
Coalition Backbencher of the year.
Owen Paterson
Opposition Backbencher of the year.
Simon Danczuk
Some reasonable nominations there. But I would like to nominate Alec Salmond for politician of the year. To get nearly 45% of Scots to vote for a platform that made the 1983 Labour manifesto look like a sound program for government was an astonishing feat and one I sincerely hope no one else will ever come close to matching.
Alex Salmond for sure; his lack of preparation for the currency and other issues saved the Union for a generation.
He will always be remembered for that failure.
I could point out there was plenty of discussion here, many many months back, that predicted the SNP would get quite close, but that the lack of preparedness on the currency, on the role of the Queen, on the loss of jobs, would prevent the YES campaign getting over the line.
But of course, that was just the turnips talking....
Tory MP Mark Pritchard arrested Breaking news Conservative MP for the Wrekin, Mark Pritchard, has been arrested following an incident in central London.
The only decent thing he can now do is get himself out. I don't understand what has happened to him these last 4 years. He's certainly turned out to be the biggest disappointment in British politics I can remember.
Tory media backs Tory politician shock. In a way even Gordon Brown managed to pull off this kind of stuff, which in some ways is harder given he came from the left. He wasn't a great strategist and neither I suspect is Osborne. Both however are good at making 'friends' in the press and have benefited from being in the right place at the right time. Osborne has had the added advantage of also benefiting from the disgraceful acquiescence of the Lib Dem leadership. Will Cable now resign? And what is Clegg's strategy? Presumably he hopes that by being 'Tory lite' he can get tactical Tory voters in Hallam. I imagine Danny Alexander thinks the same about Inverness. Shameful.
Mr. Booth, Clegg's strategy, as demonstrated yesterday, seems to be to run away and pretend the workings of HMG have nothing to do with him.
It is startling, having googled the shadow cabinet, how hard it is to identify even a nominee in that category. Ed Miliband is useless, that is beyond doubt, but would any leader not struggle with so little to work with?
At a push I would tend towards Andy Burnham. He has not been great or especially loyal but he seemed to do a good job with the Hillsborough inquiry this year and he has stirred the pot adequately with NHS stories, even if he has struggled rather more against Hunt than the hapless Lansley. If there had only been a decent winter flu crisis he would have been a shoo in. This damned global warning!
Edit. Gosh, antifrank has expressed the same opinion, I might be on to something.
"In a broadcast on Radio 4 at 6.10am, Norman Smith said the OBR’s documents read like a ‘boom of doom’, setting out the ‘utterly terrifying’ scale of the way spending will have to be ‘hacked back’ to 1930s levels.
‘That is an extraordinary concept. You are back to the land of the Road To Wigan Pier'
Can always trust the BBC to react rationally to any talk of cuts....
"In a broadcast on Radio 4 at 6.10am, Norman Smith said the OBR’s documents read like a ‘boom of doom’, setting out the ‘utterly terrifying’ scale of the way spending will have to be ‘hacked back’ to 1930s levels.
‘That is an extraordinary concept. You are back to the land of the Road To Wigan Pier'
Can always trust the BBC to react rationally to any talk of cuts....
Tory MP Mark Pritchard arrested Breaking news Conservative MP for the Wrekin, Mark Pritchard, has been arrested following an incident in central London.
Yes, but with an election just six months away, surely there will be a desire to get Mr Pritchard off the scene, regardless of the progress of the criminal case.
Tory media backs Tory politician shock. In a way even Gordon Brown managed to pull off this kind of stuff, which in some ways is harder given he came from the left. He wasn't a great strategist and neither I suspect is Osborne. Both however are good at making 'friends' in the press and have benefited from being in the right place at the right time. Osborne has had the added advantage of also benefiting from the disgraceful acquiescence of the Lib Dem leadership. Will Cable now resign? And what is Clegg's strategy? Presumably he hopes that by being 'Tory lite' he can get tactical Tory voters in Hallam. I imagine Danny Alexander thinks the same about Inverness. Shameful.
Mr. Booth, Clegg's strategy, as demonstrated yesterday, seems to be to run away and pretend the workings of HMG have nothing to do with him.
It Osborne who is often compared to Gordon Brown but what about Clegg? Yesterday looks like classic McCavity and then you have his contempt for his party. I'll do what I want and you won't dare ditch me because there is an election coming up.My guess is he wants to sign up to the spending plans but knew his own grassroots would be angry about seeing him there.
It is startling, having googled the shadow cabinet, how hard it is to identify even a nominee in that category. Ed Miliband is useless, that is beyond doubt, but would any leader not struggle with so little to work with?
At a push I would tend towards Andy Burnham. He has not been great or especially loyal but he seemed to do a good job with the Hillsborough inquiry this year and he has stirred the pot adequately with NHS stories, even if he has struggled rather more against Hunt than the hapless Lansley. If there had only been a decent winter flu crisis he would have been a shoo in. This damned global warning!
Edit. Gosh, antifrank has expressed the same opinion, I might be on to something.
Hospital admissions are running significantly higher this year than last. Burnham may yet get his moment.
For Shadow cabinet below SoS I would suggest Liz Kendall. One for the future and a very good communicator.
I find it amusing that journalists and news websites are now, only within the last 40 minutes or so (and calling it "breaking news"), reporting something which David Boothroyd told us on Twitter four hours ago (and he was only reporting a reliable source which was already in the public domain). When I looked in Google News for the person's name, there was nothing. I was beginning to suspect that it was only DB who had even noticed.
Tory MP Mark Pritchard arrested Breaking news Conservative MP for the Wrekin, Mark Pritchard, has been arrested following an incident in central London.
Yes, but with an election just six months away, surely there will be a desire to get Mr Pritchard off the scene, regardless of the progress of the criminal case.
"He has been bailed to a date in early January 2015 pending further enquiries."
If he's charged then, I doubt we'd see a by-election, given Parliament would only be sitting for another couple of months or so (the MP returned in any hypothetical by-election would only be in Parliament for a month or so with the normal length of campaign). He'd presumably stand down, but the seat would presumably be kept vacant.
It is startling, having googled the shadow cabinet, how hard it is to identify even a nominee in that category. Ed Miliband is useless, that is beyond doubt, but would any leader not struggle with so little to work with?
At a push I would tend towards Andy Burnham. He has not been great or especially loyal but he seemed to do a good job with the Hillsborough inquiry this year and he has stirred the pot adequately with NHS stories, even if he has struggled rather more against Hunt than the hapless Lansley. If there had only been a decent winter flu crisis he would have been a shoo in. This damned global warning!
Edit. Gosh, antifrank has expressed the same opinion, I might be on to something.
Hospital admissions are running significantly higher this year than last. Burnham may yet get his moment.
For Shadow cabinet below SoS I would suggest Liz Kendall. One for the future and a very good communicator.
I presumed that the £2bn was a bribe incentive for you lot not to let that happen.
The glee with which anti-government voices look forward to winter health crises is a joy to behold. Note 1. Excess winter deaths have never been lower - official. Note 2. The only part of the NHS truly 'in crisis' is the Labour-run Welsh NHS.
Do you mean Prince Harry et al , how low can you stoop Sunil? Balls will be an excellent chancellor, he has all qualifications and attributes needed for the job. Gideon will have more time for hairstyles and hobbies.Had to laugh when I saw the word genius next to his name, what a joke.
Do you mean Prince Harry et al , how low can you stoop Sunil? Balls will be an excellent chancellor, he has all qualifications and attributes needed for the job. Gideon will have more time for hairstyles and hobbies.Had to laugh when I saw the word genius next to his name, what a joke.
Why do you think the voters prefer George to run the economy over Ed Balls?
"Ed Balls has worked as a lecturer in economics at Harvard.He has also worked at the Financial Times as an economic journalist."
Whao !!!!! Careful !!!!
The title of lecturer means rather different things in Uk and US universities.
The proper equivalent of the UK term "lecturer" in a US university is "assistant professor"
Balls was a US "lecturer", i.e, a starting grad student assigned some drudge teaching to mark.
As a UK lecturer who spent 2 hours photocopying yesterday because some of my colleagues are fundamentally incompetent, I'm not sure what I think about that.
A genuine question for the lefties here on PB: What would you now do economically?
Ozzy has made it crystal effing clear what the Tory plan is. Keep the spending cuts going, indeed accelerate them. Tax more banks, mansions, Starbucks. Surplus in 5 or 6 years and a notably smaller state. Whatever one's view, it's completely clear.
What would you lefties suggest? BenM will say spend spend spend until the heat death of the universe. But what are you other PB lefites thinking? What will Ed n Ed propose? (Amazing that this close to the GE nobody really knows). Is the deficit / debt an issue? If so what would you do?
He's left them only one exit; the one that says higher taxes (or borrowing) on ordinary people to maintain public spending.
Unless they get radical on EU contributions, overseas aid, nuclear weapons, HS rail.
"In a broadcast on Radio 4 at 6.10am, Norman Smith said the OBR’s documents read like a ‘boom of doom’, setting out the ‘utterly terrifying’ scale of the way spending will have to be ‘hacked back’ to 1930s levels.
‘That is an extraordinary concept. You are back to the land of the Road To Wigan Pier'
Can always trust the BBC to react rationally to any talk of cuts....
Hardly - even the Speccie thinks the Beeb was right to flag it up. What's more strange (or sadly predictable) is that the implications of Osborne's spending plans haven't been properly considered until now. Osborne's point that 'Oh you said that about the 2010 cuts' is pretty spurious. Those cut public spending from a level even Labour wanted to cut significantly to one higher than at most times during the 1997-2010 government. His plans aim to reduce it to a level which hasn't been reached since the war by 2020. Now whether you think that's right or wrong, it will fundamentally change our relationship with the state. Assuming the protected departments remain protected it means eye-watering cuts to expenditure elsewhere and government not doing things it used to be expected to. Osborne says he's going to go after welfare again, but the cuts there aren't going to be low-hanging fruit - it'll mean cutting in work benefits, possibly hitting pensioners and somehow regaining control of the housing benefit bill, which is set to rise again even after the cap.
Essentially the problem is tax receipts - we're behind despite the promised spending cuts due to the stagnation of 2011-12 and the fact that even as the economy has recovered, they haven't gone up - likely because of the increase in low-paid jobs and the self-employed. How you view things and vote in 2015 is probably determined by whether you view that 2011-12 slowdown as all or partially Osborne's fault, and whether you think the problem of low-pay is one he neglects to the detriment of the economy and should do something about. If you think they're not then he's steering a necessarily harsh course in difficult waters and the pain has to be sucked up by those on the end of it, if you do then Osborne has just set out to destroy the post-war settlement in a way not even Thatcher did either due to incompetence or zeal.
It's the most important and frightening/intriguing part of the AS whatever your political stripe, and interviewers supinely spouting Osborne's soundbites and tidbits would be doing a disservice.
It is startling, having googled the shadow cabinet, how hard it is to identify even a nominee in that category. Ed Miliband is useless, that is beyond doubt, but would any leader not struggle with so little to work with?
At a push I would tend towards Andy Burnham. He has not been great or especially loyal but he seemed to do a good job with the Hillsborough inquiry this year and he has stirred the pot adequately with NHS stories, even if he has struggled rather more against Hunt than the hapless Lansley. If there had only been a decent winter flu crisis he would have been a shoo in. This damned global warning!
Edit. Gosh, antifrank has expressed the same opinion, I might be on to something.
Hospital admissions are running significantly higher this year than last. Burnham may yet get his moment.
For Shadow cabinet below SoS I would suggest Liz Kendall. One for the future and a very good communicator.
I presumed that the £2bn was a bribe incentive for you lot not to let that happen.
Most Trusts are running deficits. I believe that ours in Leicester is the largest (though percentage wise some others are worse) at £40 million. It seems this is not going to come to the crunch until after the election.
Whether this is a bribe, or just an acceptance of reality, I do not know.
Public sector workers got another 2 year pay freeze yesterday...
@DavidL The UK never was in the position of Greece. We have our own currency.
The debt itself is not dangerous (most of it is owed to ourselves and there is plenty of demand for it), the structure of the economy under Osborne is.
The Autumn Statement numbers are a fantasy. Anyone here really believe government departments are going to deliver 40pc further cuts? No chance. Did any of Osborne's fan club notice that the OBR now accepts Osborne has smashed the tax base? Income tax collection is going to remain flat from here on in. Where is the revenue going to come from?
The deficit is not going to reduce quickly and the idea of a surplus being achieved in the next parliament is laughable - that goes for both parties. Chasing a chimera which will achieve nothing.
The right choice is none of the red herrings ones you throw out - it'll be to utilise low rate debt to invest in the economy to get it to do the things we need and most people want: to be able to finance social workers, the NHS education and so on.
There are ways and means to do this, but it'll take the defenestration of this poor chancellor (financially) before reality bites. We already have murmurings that Osborne will have to trash these forecasts immediately after the GE if - heaven forbid - he is re-elected to post and ramp up taxes till the pips squeak. The howls of outrage in these parts when he does so will be a wonder to behold
The ONS have put together a map of parliamentary constituencies and how they vary by different data variables. Some of them, eg "non-white population", give a very good illustration of the difference between the mean and the median.
The Autumn Statement numbers are a fantasy. Anyone here really believe government departments are going to deliver 40pc further cuts?
Well, some might, but most of them won't need to. Those figures were based on the assumption that welfare won't be cut. SInce it is such a massive chunk of public expenditure, of course that unreasonable assumption distorts the figures.
Meanwhile we look forward to hearing Labour's plans, without much hope of hearing anything from the two Eds.
Labour supporters, though, might care to think about it. In the event that, God forbid, Ed Miliband gets into No 10, those cuts (or in practice probably rather larger ones, given that the markets will be very nervous about Labour) will be your problem.
The ONS have put together a map of parliamentary constituencies and how they vary by different data variables. Some of them, eg "non-white population", give a very good illustration of the difference between the mean and the median.
Isn't that why people who smugly sneer at the "idiots" who overestimate the number of immigants/muslims/non white people aren't really being as clever as they think?
If you live in and around London and have barely been to the more rural parts of the country and are asked that question, you are quite understandably going to expect a higher amount. I would think that would be the case for immigrants/muslims/non white people living in London who answered the question as well
That's the group that's most at risk for Labour from the Greens. I tend to agree with Neil that many current Green-flirters who have previously voted for Labour will in the end go back to Labour. But the 2010 Lib Dems won't have a track record of actually putting the X in the Labour box and indeed may be serial dissidents.
The Autumn Statement numbers are a fantasy. Anyone here really believe government departments are going to deliver 40pc further cuts?
Labour supporters, though, might care to think about it. In the event that, God forbid, Ed Miliband gets into No 10, those cuts (or in practice probably rather larger ones, given that the markets will be very nervous about Labour) will be your problem.
This. Reality will bite hard, and all the blaming of the bankers in the world isn't going to make it go away.
Essentially the problem is tax receipts - we're behind despite the promised spending cuts due to the stagnation of 2011-12 and the fact that even as the economy has recovered, they haven't gone up - likely because of the increase in low-paid jobs and the self-employed.
I thought we were behind because so many people have been taken out of tax?
The Autumn Statement numbers are a fantasy. Anyone here really believe government departments are going to deliver 40pc further cuts?
Labour supporters, though, might care to think about it. In the event that, God forbid, Ed Miliband gets into No 10, those cuts (or in practice probably rather larger ones, given that the markets will be very nervous about Labour) will be your problem.
This. Reality will bite hard, and all the blaming of the bankers in the world isn't going to make it go away.
There will be no reaction from the markets. And when there isn't, Labour should pour that bucket over the heads of the Tories and remind the electorate which party it is that really tries to keep them in fear.
Essentially the problem is tax receipts - we're behind despite the promised spending cuts due to the stagnation of 2011-12 and the fact that even as the economy has recovered, they haven't gone up - likely because of the increase in low-paid jobs and the self-employed.
I thought we were behind because so many people have been taken out of tax?
Surely it’s the creative accountancy by the likes of Google, Amazon and Boots.
Essentially the problem is tax receipts - we're behind despite the promised spending cuts due to the stagnation of 2011-12 and the fact that even as the economy has recovered, they haven't gone up - likely because of the increase in low-paid jobs and the self-employed.
I thought we were behind because so many people have been taken out of tax?
No, Mark is right. It's due to the increase in employment swelling the ranks of the low paid who incur little or no tax.
The ONS have put together a map of parliamentary constituencies and how they vary by different data variables. Some of them, eg "non-white population", give a very good illustration of the difference between the mean and the median.
Isn't that why people who smugly sneer at the "idiots" who overestimate the number of immigants/muslims/non white people aren't really being as clever as they think?
If you live in and around London and have barely been to the more rural parts of the country and are asked that question, you are quite understandably going to expect a higher amount. I would think that would be the case for immigrants/muslims/non white people living in London who answered the question as well
I expect that's a large part of the answer. That, and the fact that we overestimate things that are very visible (eg the risk of being struck by lightning) and underestimate things that are not particularly noticeable (eg the risk of dying of kidney failure).
Essentially the problem is tax receipts - we're behind despite the promised spending cuts due to the stagnation of 2011-12 and the fact that even as the economy has recovered, they haven't gone up - likely because of the increase in low-paid jobs and the self-employed.
I thought we were behind because so many people have been taken out of tax?
No, Mark is right. It's due to the increase in employment swelling the ranks of the low paid who incur little or no tax.
No, Mark is right. It's due to the increase in employment swelling the ranks of the low paid who incur little or no tax.
They pay even less tax if they're unemployed, surely?
Maybe as many have gone from 'employed at 20k' to 'employed on a zero hours contract at 12k', as have gone from 'unemployed' to 'employed on a zero hours contract at 12k'
@DavidL The UK never was in the position of Greece. We have our own currency.
The debt itself is not dangerous (most of it is owed to ourselves and there is plenty of demand for it), the structure of the economy under Osborne is.
The Autumn Statement numbers are a fantasy. Anyone here really believe government departments are going to deliver 40pc further cuts? No chance. Did any of Osborne's fan club notice that the OBR now accepts Osborne has smashed the tax base? Income tax collection is going to remain flat from here on in. Where is the revenue going to come from?
The deficit is not going to reduce quickly and the idea of a surplus being achieved in the next parliament is laughable - that goes for both parties. Chasing a chimera which will achieve nothing.
The right choice is none of the red herrings ones you throw out - it'll be to utilise low rate debt to invest in the economy to get it to do the things we need and most people want: to be able to finance social workers, the NHS education and so on.
There are ways and means to do this, but it'll take the defenestration of this poor chancellor (financially) before reality bites. We already have murmurings that Osborne will have to trash these forecasts immediately after the GE if - heaven forbid - he is re-elected to post and ramp up taxes till the pips squeak. The howls of outrage in these parts when he does so will be a wonder to behold
BenM: One reason why tax revenues are not coming in as expected is because so many people at the bottom end have been taken out of tax or are paying much less. That may well be a good thing but it necessarily means that either others will have to pay much more tax - which I expect will happen regardless of who gets in after the election or there will have to be more cuts or, as I expect, both.
If we want a state as large as it is now we will have to pay for it. But people cannot complain about a cost of living crisis( i.e. I don't have enough money for day-to-day life) and the cuts to vital services and then complain when taxes are put up on them to pay for the state. You cannot expect only a small proportion of the population (bankers/mansion tax owners) to pay for everything.
I agree with you that when reality bites the howls of outrage from people who fall into neither of these groups but who seem to think that there is always someone else with a pot of money to pay for everything will be a wonder to behold.
Investing in roads and trains is not some sort of magic solution to this.
The ONS have put together a map of parliamentary constituencies and how they vary by different data variables. Some of them, eg "non-white population", give a very good illustration of the difference between the mean and the median.
Isn't that why people who smugly sneer at the "idiots" who overestimate the number of immigants/muslims/non white people aren't really being as clever as they think?
If you live in and around London and have barely been to the more rural parts of the country and are asked that question, you are quite understandably going to expect a higher amount. I would think that would be the case for immigrants/muslims/non white people living in London who answered the question as well
Ilford North is ranked #31. Our neighbours in Ilford South are ranked #2! And across the Roding, East Ham take the #1 spot!
Osborne and Cameron's real trick over the last few years has been convincing the money markets that they are in control of the UK's finances and there is a plan in place to fix the underlying structural issues & debt. Hence even though the UK has weak numbers like Greece & Spain, the markets back Osborne & interest rates stay very low. Osborne's message of stick with us, we are going in the right direction is bought into and supported.
If Labour win in 2015, there will be carnage on the money markets. Mr Brown's Boys have no such credibility. Interest rates will shoot up, govt spend on interest will go through the roof, as will mortgages. The UK will be right back to the edge of the precipice it faced in 2010 before Brown was turfed out.
Conservatives - cut stamp duty for most people. Labour - the deficit hasn't been cut enough! If only Osborne had listened to us and cut it less! Lib Dems - this is a Lib Dem budget which we completely disagree with and signed up to. We're proud of it.
I'm sure the Conservatives will have some bad news soon, though. Another defection remains eminently possible.
So the IFS says non ring fenced departments will see 41% cuts by 2021
Poor SeanT's going to get the horn again (from 2010)
The Con-Dem coalition works in mysterious ways. Still, some, like the author Sean Thomas, discern a pattern. It's awful, but they like it. "I am SOOOO excited by the idea of 40% cuts. This government is actually giving me THE HORN," he posts on politicalbetting.com. "I thought they'd be all wishywashy gay poofy rubbish centrist lib-demmy wankfaffle. But no. FORTY PER CENT CUTS.
Of course we won't get that but the mere idea the idea can appear in a Guardian headline obliges me to change my leatherette posing thong." He's getting all excited. "25%. 23%. Who cares. CUT CUT CUT. DESTROY the horrible Labour state. Starve the asylum seekers. Kick the benefit scroungers into the Irish Sea. PUNCH the pathetic bleating social working feminists in the FALLOPIANS, and make sure rapists are protected by ANONYMITY. Ooh, Dave gives Good Governance. He's dryer than Thatch. Lovin' it." Sean's happy. We're happy for him.
Maybe as many have gone from 'employed at 20k' to 'employed on a zero hours contract at 12k', as have gone from 'unemployed' to 'employed on a zero hours contract at 12k'
Yes, fair point, although I think the extraordinarily strong growth in employment and the pretty good growth in GDP is going to show through in tax returns, and in wage increases, more quickly than the economic forecasters are suggesting. They were over-pessimistic at the start of 2013 (when I said I expected the UK economy to surprise on the upside), and I think they are over-pessimistic now, at least on the assumption that we get a Conservative government. If we don't then it's of course a different picture, and we should expect a severe setback.
Essentially the problem is tax receipts - we're behind despite the promised spending cuts due to the stagnation of 2011-12 and the fact that even as the economy has recovered, they haven't gone up - likely because of the increase in low-paid jobs and the self-employed.
I thought we were behind because so many people have been taken out of tax?
No, Mark is right. It's due to the increase in employment swelling the ranks of the low paid who incur little or no tax.
Tax credits might be the reason tax receipts appear so low. I believe they are accounted for as negative tax receipts rather than welfare payments.
If you look at the history of tax credits, the whys, the wherefores, etc...there is no reason for them. Taxing people people, get them to fill a load of forms in, then give them a bit back, in what way is that efficient (and how we ended up with people on large salaries getting them).
The simplest way to help out those in work and struggling to make ends meet, not tax them in the first place.
The ONS have put together a map of parliamentary constituencies and how they vary by different data variables. Some of them, eg "non-white population", give a very good illustration of the difference between the mean and the median.
Isn't that why people who smugly sneer at the "idiots" who overestimate the number of immigants/muslims/non white people aren't really being as clever as they think?
If you live in and around London and have barely been to the more rural parts of the country and are asked that question, you are quite understandably going to expect a higher amount. I would think that would be the case for immigrants/muslims/non white people living in London who answered the question as well
Ilford North is ranked #31. Our neighbours in Ilford South are ranked #2! And across the Roding, East Ham take the #1 spot!
Where are the rankings?
EDIT: Sorry I have seen, H&U is #208
What are your thoughts on people calling the A12 the Eastern Avenue?
Comments
The deficit is where it is because of taxes the govt have cut - allowances and fuel duty, and because of the economies inability to prodice revenue given the level of growth. This is why it needs to continue to cut spending. The govt are chasing tax avoidance to the tune of 9 billion over 5 years. It could have cut spending quicker in the face of the EZ crisis, but that would have stuffed the wider economy.
Of course no govt is perfet, butit has done well.
http://www.phrases.org.uk/meanings/raze-to-the-ground.html
However, my X is firmly in Boy George's Box at the moment!
He had nothing to do with inheriting the £175billion or so deficit, and voters know that, hence why he can get away with not completely clearing it. I suspect most voters feel that halving the deficit is a pretty decent effort, because they know when politicians promise things (like eliminating the deficit) it's very unlikely to happen.
On the whole I think he's managed the economy pretty well. A huge deficit must be the biggest pain in the arse and millstone any chancellor can inherit, and Osborne inherited a crippling one and managed the economy without a) people starving to death, b) IMF bail outs and c) risking anything near anarchy and crowds on the street.
Financially, his management is easy to point fingers at, but politically, it's a good effort.
Labour's core voters hate his guts and want him castrated, but that's more to do with Osborne being a Tory than any cool analysis of his economic management.
As a non-tribal pragmatist I suspect that no economists ever know exactly how the economy will go, and therefore chancellors have to choose a direction of travel, take some risks with judgement and hope for some luck. Osborne's chosen direction of travel appears to be the right one. Not everything has gone his way, but he has had some luck too, and Ed Balls (arguably a more experienced and learned economist than Osborne) has failed to land punches.
Balls's 'too far, too fast' sounds clunky now that he's arguing that Osborne hasn't cleared the deficit quickly enough. Balls is a smart, robust, confident streetfighting politician, and one of Osborne's biggest triumphs is to get through four and a half years of difficult economic conditions without taking a clean punch from him.
Sky News Newsdesk @SkyNewsBreak 2m2 minutes ago
Metropolitan Police says the Conservative MP Mark #Pritchard has been arrested following an allegation of rape
Nigel Farage (unfortunately!)
Government Minister of the year - MoS and above.
George Osborne (runner-up: Steve Webb)
Shadow Minister of the year - MoS and above.
I can't think of one
Government Minister of the year - Below MoS.
Penny Mordaunt
Shadow Minister of the year - Below MoS.
Lord Adonis
Coalition Backbencher of the year.
Owen Paterson
Opposition Backbencher of the year.
Simon Danczuk
He was complicit in the dire YES2Av campaign. I can't think of a local elections campaign he's done well in really.
The 2011 Scottish election campaign and independence referendum? Less said about those the better.
The Euro elections campaign wasn't great....
Not sure Ed's a natural campaigner and whilst there's unlikely to be anything as bad as Gillian Duffy in 2015, I think the general consensus will be that Labour's campaign will be pretty poor.
I will while at an international airport racing from one plane to another have a stern word with my I phone thingy to make sure it never makes this terrible error again . Failing that I will ask my daughter to set the thing up such that I am never picked up on the spelling of one specific word when the ret of the message IS ABSOLUTELY TRUE
I am getting daggers from the flight safety attendant right now
love Moses
Xxxx
Shadow Minister - maybe Chuka Umanna for managing to make his ambitions so obvious without getting booted out by Ed...?
Don't dither you wretched man. Shout it from the rooftops !!
Spending cuts will continue since they are needed. But Osborne has already announced a cut in tax breaks for banks and also the new 'google tax' which itself is long overdue, all of which will come into force in the next parliament. This will amount to several billion pounds a year and the govt are continuing to close tax avoidance loopholes.
We should also remember that corporation tax revenues and higher rate revenues continue to grow following the cut in rates.
There seems little question that the determination to cut the structural deficit is there. Plus by the looks of it the determination to see that the economy generates the revenues its should when it is in growth.
Perhaps Angela Eagle might fill the gap. She invariably does a decent comedic turn at Business Questions as Shadow Leader of the House.
Breaking news
Conservative MP for the Wrekin, Mark Pritchard, has been arrested following an incident in central London.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30331569
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/wrekinthe/
Jim Murphy was strong in the No campaign, and seems to have by virtue of that signed Labour's death warrant in Scotland.
Perhaps an award for doing more to bring CON in with a realistic prospect of most seats than anyone else... ?
As for the rest that was obviously a SHOUTY rant and not to be taken seriously - wasn't it ;-) ?
And week after week at PMQs, we see Ed has not the wits to reframe his second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth questions when Cameron has swatted him away in answering the first.
Labour have had a pretty easy ride to date through the term of this Coalition. They have not been the focus of attention. Because there has been nothing to focus upon. They simply do not have a narrative that the media can justify spending time on.
That will change once we are into the New Year. There being no Labour narrative becomes a story in itself then.
Otherwise it's a case of "job not done, don't hand the economy back to the people wwho buggered it in the first place."
More daggers
Ho hum
He will always be remembered for that failure.
I don't want to say anything I shouldn't, so mods feel free to amend or delete, but is that the same guy (Croydon possibly?) who was deselected for domestic abuse?
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/technology-science/science/nasa-launches-orion-spacecraft-prepare-4745999
That's like claiming 'it's just as much my house' before you divorce your wife and move house.
The media were inept, failing to point out oil money (assuming a price of $100 a barrel...) would be used on both current spending and to establish a wealth fund.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/10988698/David-Ruffley-investigated-by-Tory-party-over-domestic-violence-caution.html
Missed that in between check in and stripped almost naked at security. When it beeped ( as it normally does due to my travel arrangements - no not metals) I chose the lady security guard to frisk me down. Aaccording to the 20 stone heavily tattooed male security guard I don't get a choice
And they call this a democracy?
Pah!
Oh and not at all shouty.. Just facts
............. Still waiting on tarmac
Government Minister of the year - MoS and above: George Osborne
Shadow Minister of the year - MoS and above: Andy Burnham
Others - don't really have much of an opinion.
But of course, that was just the turnips talking....
At a push I would tend towards Andy Burnham. He has not been great or especially loyal but he seemed to do a good job with the Hillsborough inquiry this year and he has stirred the pot adequately with NHS stories, even if he has struggled rather more against Hunt than the hapless Lansley. If there had only been a decent winter flu crisis he would have been a shoo in. This damned global warning!
Edit. Gosh, antifrank has expressed the same opinion, I might be on to something.
‘That is an extraordinary concept. You are back to the land of the Road To Wigan Pier'
Can always trust the BBC to react rationally to any talk of cuts....
Also it is rubbish and won't happen.
For Shadow cabinet below SoS I would suggest Liz Kendall. One for the future and a very good communicator.
If he's charged then, I doubt we'd see a by-election, given Parliament would only be sitting for another couple of months or so (the MP returned in any hypothetical by-election would only be in Parliament for a month or so with the normal length of campaign). He'd presumably stand down, but the seat would presumably be kept vacant.
If he isn't charged, I expect he'll stand again.
@montie: New @TheGreenParty poster is a missile aimed at Labour's heart #SplitOnTheLeft http://t.co/pWni8BBEPL
bribeincentive for you lot not to let that happen.Note 1. Excess winter deaths have never been lower - official.
Note 2. The only part of the NHS truly 'in crisis' is the Labour-run Welsh NHS.
"The first five polls so far this week (ie. excluding tonight's YG) show [an ELBOW] 1.4% Lab lead"
Including the latest YG as a sixth data point slashes Lab lead to only 0.8%!
Praying for another exceptionally mild winter again this year?
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2010/06/14/article-1286627-0A09686D000005DC-494_233x423.jpg
http://www.ustream.tv/nasahdtv
Google it and check out the qualifications of the directors.
Whao !!!!! Careful !!!!
The title of lecturer means rather different things in Uk and US universities.
The proper equivalent of the UK term "lecturer" in a US university is "assistant professor"
Balls was a US "lecturer", i.e, a starting grad student assigned some drudge teaching to mark.
Unless they get radical on EU contributions, overseas aid, nuclear weapons, HS rail.
Essentially the problem is tax receipts - we're behind despite the promised spending cuts due to the stagnation of 2011-12 and the fact that even as the economy has recovered, they haven't gone up - likely because of the increase in low-paid jobs and the self-employed. How you view things and vote in 2015 is probably determined by whether you view that 2011-12 slowdown as all or partially Osborne's fault, and whether you think the problem of low-pay is one he neglects to the detriment of the economy and should do something about. If you think they're not then he's steering a necessarily harsh course in difficult waters and the pain has to be sucked up by those on the end of it, if you do then Osborne has just set out to destroy the post-war settlement in a way not even Thatcher did either due to incompetence or zeal.
It's the most important and frightening/intriguing part of the AS whatever your political stripe, and interviewers supinely spouting Osborne's soundbites and tidbits would be doing a disservice.
Whether this is a bribe, or just an acceptance of reality, I do not know.
Public sector workers got another 2 year pay freeze yesterday...
@DavidL The UK never was in the position of Greece. We have our own currency.
The debt itself is not dangerous (most of it is owed to ourselves and there is plenty of demand for it), the structure of the economy under Osborne is.
The Autumn Statement numbers are a fantasy. Anyone here really believe government departments are going to deliver 40pc further cuts? No chance. Did any of Osborne's fan club notice that the OBR now accepts Osborne has smashed the tax base? Income tax collection is going to remain flat from here on in. Where is the revenue going to come from?
The deficit is not going to reduce quickly and the idea of a surplus being achieved in the next parliament is laughable - that goes for both parties. Chasing a chimera which will achieve nothing.
The right choice is none of the red herrings ones you throw out - it'll be to utilise low rate debt to invest in the economy to get it to do the things we need and most people want: to be able to finance social workers, the NHS education and so on.
There are ways and means to do this, but it'll take the defenestration of this poor chancellor (financially) before reality bites. We already have murmurings that Osborne will have to trash these forecasts immediately after the GE if - heaven forbid - he is re-elected to post and ramp up taxes till the pips squeak. The howls of outrage in these parts when he does so will be a wonder to behold
Others may have seen this ages ago, but I have only just come across it:
http://www.neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk/HTMLDocs/dvc174/index.html
The ONS have put together a map of parliamentary constituencies and how they vary by different data variables. Some of them, eg "non-white population", give a very good illustration of the difference between the mean and the median.
Labour: 23% 2010-LDs
Green: 17% 2010-LDs, 4% of 2010-Lab.
If you look at the YouGov for 3 December 2013 you get the following
Labour: 36% 2010-LD
Green: 6% 2010-LD, 1% 2010-Lab, 1% 2010-Con
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/61qtpahmnj/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-031214.pdf
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/vleim9e5ua/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-031213.pdf
Meanwhile we look forward to hearing Labour's plans, without much hope of hearing anything from the two Eds.
Labour supporters, though, might care to think about it. In the event that, God forbid, Ed Miliband gets into No 10, those cuts (or in practice probably rather larger ones, given that the markets will be very nervous about Labour) will be your problem.
You on the sauce ?
If you live in and around London and have barely been to the more rural parts of the country and are asked that question, you are quite understandably going to expect a higher amount. I would think that would be the case for immigrants/muslims/non white people living in London who answered the question as well
http://conservativewoman.co.uk/jill-kirby-pro-immigrant-lobby-dont-say-two-thirds-income-minimum-wage-family-handouts/
Tax credits might be the reason tax receipts appear so low. I believe they are accounted for as negative tax receipts rather than welfare payments.
If we want a state as large as it is now we will have to pay for it. But people cannot complain about a cost of living crisis( i.e. I don't have enough money for day-to-day life) and the cuts to vital services and then complain when taxes are put up on them to pay for the state. You cannot expect only a small proportion of the population (bankers/mansion tax owners) to pay for everything.
I agree with you that when reality bites the howls of outrage from people who fall into neither of these groups but who seem to think that there is always someone else with a pot of money to pay for everything will be a wonder to behold.
Investing in roads and trains is not some sort of magic solution to this.
If Labour win in 2015, there will be carnage on the money markets. Mr Brown's Boys have no such credibility. Interest rates will shoot up, govt spend on interest will go through the roof, as will mortgages. The UK will be right back to the edge of the precipice it faced in 2010 before Brown was turfed out.
http://www.ustream.tv/nasahdtv
So far, the Autumn Statement seems simple.
Conservatives - cut stamp duty for most people.
Labour - the deficit hasn't been cut enough! If only Osborne had listened to us and cut it less!
Lib Dems - this is a Lib Dem budget which we completely disagree with and signed up to. We're proud of it.
I'm sure the Conservatives will have some bad news soon, though. Another defection remains eminently possible.
Poor SeanT's going to get the horn again (from 2010)
The Con-Dem coalition works in mysterious ways. Still, some, like the author Sean Thomas, discern a pattern. It's awful, but they like it. "I am SOOOO excited by the idea of 40% cuts. This government is actually giving me THE HORN," he posts on politicalbetting.com. "I thought they'd be all wishywashy gay poofy rubbish centrist lib-demmy wankfaffle. But no. FORTY PER CENT CUTS.
Of course we won't get that but the mere idea the idea can appear in a Guardian headline obliges me to change my leatherette posing thong." He's getting all excited. "25%. 23%. Who cares. CUT CUT CUT. DESTROY the horrible Labour state. Starve the asylum seekers. Kick the benefit scroungers into the Irish Sea. PUNCH the pathetic bleating social working feminists in the FALLOPIANS, and make sure rapists are protected by ANONYMITY. Ooh, Dave gives Good Governance. He's dryer than Thatch. Lovin' it." Sean's happy. We're happy for him.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/jul/08/hugh-muir-diary
The simplest way to help out those in work and struggling to make ends meet, not tax them in the first place.
EDIT: Sorry I have seen, H&U is #208
What are your thoughts on people calling the A12 the Eastern Avenue?
Tax credit spending is flat in the last two years - i.e. down in real terms.