I think you need to offer better than evens for that ^_~
Indeed so. A lot better than Evens. That is the point.
Socrates ran away clutching his purse making a clucking noise again ?
The bet's open to you too TGOHF. You can have a bet of £50 at evens that Cameron will hold a simple in versus out referendum based on a completed renegotiation with all relevant EU stakeholders. Will you take me up, or run away clucking?
I would imagine that the ordinary person in the street would welcome the Prime Ministers proposals as sensible and fair. Most of the electorate are not into politics as per this forum and will judge the proposals on their merit. There is no way that those who want to exit the EU could ever be pacified unless the Prime Minister said he would lead the Country out which was never going to happen
I think you need to offer better than evens for that ^_~
Indeed so. A lot better than Evens. That is the point.
Socrates ran away clutching his purse making a clucking noise again ?
The bet's open to you too TGOHF. You can have a bet of £50 at evens that Cameron will hold a simple in versus out referendum based on a completed renegotiation with all relevant EU stakeholders. Will you take me up, or run away clucking?
It would depend where UKIP took their support from in those seats.
But, if you look at the Ashcroft polling, you see UKIP winning 14% in Watford, and 18% in Stockton South, both ultra-marginal seats, and both of which put the Tories in the lead. If Labour can't win either Watford or Stockton South, their chances of winning an election are remote.
Actually that is a very good point. It might turn out that the net effect of UKIP on Lab vs Con is more neutral than we have been expecting, depending on how sentiment shifts over the next few months. As I've said before, I think it is at least possible that there will be more swingback from UKIP to the Conservatives (relative to where we stand now) than to Labour. But that remains to be seen, and doesn't alter the fact that anyone who doesn't vote Conservative in a Conservative-target seat is by their vote making a Conservative government and the referendum less likely, and therefore a Miliband government more likely. Up to them, of course - I'm not saying the Conservatives have any droit de seigneur! But that is the reality.
I think you need to offer better than evens for that ^_~
Indeed so. A lot better than Evens. That is the point.
Socrates ran away clutching his purse making a clucking noise again ?
The bet's open to you too TGOHF. You can have a bet of £50 at evens that Cameron will hold a simple in versus out referendum based on a completed renegotiation with all relevant EU stakeholders. Will you take me up, or run away clucking?
Yes - if he has a majority.
Agreed, with the only other condition was "by the end of 2017", as per Cameron's commitment. Presumably that's not an issue at your end.
Can someone please explain how voting UKIP somehow means helping Ed Milliband to get elected?
Voting UKIP in Rochester and Clacton meant electing UKIP candidates. Voting UKIP in Heywood & Middleton, Rotherham, Wythenshawe, and South Shields meant that UKIP came a clear second behind Labour. Voting UKIP in Eastleigh meant that UKIP came a clear second behind the Lib Dems.
And what about voting UKIP in Hastings & Rye, or Kingswood, or Broxtowe?
Broxtowe's supposedly a UKIP target. They did win there in the Euros, and certainly they are much more visible in terms of street campaigning than the Tories. I think that a nice 50-50 split would be nice. :-)
I would imagine that the ordinary person in the street would welcome the Prime Ministers proposals as sensible and fair. Most of the electorate are not into politics as per this forum and will judge the proposals on their merit. There is no way that those who want to exit the EU could ever be pacified unless the Prime Minister said he would lead the Country out which was never going to happen
I admire your optimism. 77% of the electorate want immigration cut, 56% want it cut by a lot. A speech talking about tinkering with benefit payments, which he is unlikely to get past other EU countries, is not going to float their boat.
I think you need to offer better than evens for that ^_~
Indeed so. A lot better than Evens. That is the point.
Socrates ran away clutching his purse making a clucking noise again ?
The bet's open to you too TGOHF. You can have a bet of £50 at evens that Cameron will hold a simple in versus out referendum based on a completed renegotiation with all relevant EU stakeholders. Will you take me up, or run away clucking?
Yes - if he has a majority.
Sorry - only other condition was "by the end of 2017", as per Cameron's commitment. Presumably that's not an issue at your end.
Hmm - before that why wouldn't you take up Richard's bet ? Why the big caveat about official negotiations with all EU authorities blah blah ? Seems like you are trying to trick me.
The bet should be if Cam wins a majority will there be a Uk wide referendum held on EU membership with the option of out on the table.
Can someone please explain how voting UKIP somehow means helping Ed Milliband to get elected?
Voting UKIP in Rochester and Clacton meant electing UKIP candidates. Voting UKIP in Heywood & Middleton, Rotherham, Wythenshawe, and South Shields meant that UKIP came a clear second behind Labour. Voting UKIP in Eastleigh meant that UKIP came a clear second behind the Lib Dems.
And what about voting UKIP in Hastings & Rye, or Kingswood, or Broxtowe?
Broxtowe's supposedly a UKIP target. They did win there in the Euros, and certainly they are much more visible in terms of street campaigning than the Tories. I think that a nice 50-50 split would be nice. :-)
I'd guess an MP who's a Minister would have less time to campaign locally, than a lobby fodder backbencher.
@Socrates, No, the bet is about whether David Cameron, or his Conservative successor if he's not PM at the time, will keep his promise and offer the referendum which the Kippers claim they want. It is not about what anyone else will do. It was offered in response to the statement made by you and others that he cannot be trusted.
That is the offer. I understand why no-one takes me up on it. They know I am correct, but can't bring themselves to admit it, because it makes a complete nonsense of the UKIP platform.
The terms as stated are still available to anyone credit-worthy, up to £1000. I don't expect any takers.
Does the referendum have to be legally-binding, or not, to win the bet?
@Socrates, No, the bet is about whether David Cameron, or his Conservative successor if he's not PM at the time, will keep his promise and offer the referendum which the Kippers claim they want. It is not about what anyone else will do. It was offered in response to the statement made by you and others that he cannot be trusted.
That is the offer. I understand why no-one takes me up on it. They know I am correct, but can't bring themselves to admit it, because it makes a complete nonsense of the UKIP platform.
The terms as stated are still available to anyone credit-worthy, up to £1000. I don't expect any takers.
Does the referendum have to be legally-binding, or not, to win the bet?
Was the sindy ref binding? Can any referendum be legally binding? Referendums do not pass laws. If the tories have a majority of 1 or are in a minority govt or coalition then would it, the following legislation pass parliament? Indeed could the legislation get through? In that event Cameron could call an election, but would a party dare ignore a referendum result?
I think you need to offer better than evens for that ^_~
Indeed so. A lot better than Evens. That is the point.
Socrates ran away clutching his purse making a clucking noise again ?
The bet's open to you too TGOHF. You can have a bet of £50 at evens that Cameron will hold a simple in versus out referendum based on a completed renegotiation with all relevant EU stakeholders. Will you take me up, or run away clucking?
Yes - if he has a majority.
Sorry - only other condition was "by the end of 2017", as per Cameron's commitment. Presumably that's not an issue at your end.
Hmm - before that why wouldn't you take up Richard's bet ? Why the big caveat about official negotiations with all EU authorities blah blah ? Seems like you are trying to trick me.
The bet should be if Cam wins a majority will there be a Uk wide referendum held on EU membership with the option of out on the table.
But that remains to be seen, and doesn't alter the fact that anyone who doesn't vote Conservative in a Conservative-target seat is by their vote making a Conservative government and the referendum less likely, and therefore a Miliband government more likely. Up to them, of course - I'm not saying the Conservatives have any droit de seigneur! But that is the reality.
Most of the Tory/Kipper waverers on here seem to be in rock steady Tory seats. Patrick has Dominic Raab, if he goes down Farage will be in No10. For me Jesse Norman won't be going anywhere unless the LDs have a startling recovery.
Can someone please explain how voting UKIP somehow means helping Ed Milliband to get elected?
Voting UKIP in Rochester and Clacton meant electing UKIP candidates. Voting UKIP in Heywood & Middleton, Rotherham, Wythenshawe, and South Shields meant that UKIP came a clear second behind Labour. Voting UKIP in Eastleigh meant that UKIP came a clear second behind the Lib Dems.
And what about voting UKIP in Hastings & Rye, or Kingswood, or Broxtowe?
Broxtowe's supposedly a UKIP target. They did win there in the Euros, and certainly they are much more visible in terms of street campaigning than the Tories. I think that a nice 50-50 split would be nice. :-)
I'd guess an MP who's a Minister would have less time to campaign locally, than a lobby fodder backbencher.
Rather I would suggest like Party Leaders who happen to be MEPs, and had two major byelections in the last month... and yet we have this thread.
Not convinced Reckless (or indeed majority of kippers) are small state or libertarian. I suspect most of the WWC ex-Labour element are more at the spendy end of the spectrum. I think the left / right inconsistency will ultimately hurt UKIP as it has the LibDems. They're being wildly successful at grafting the front end of a horse onto a donkey's arse. There'll be a civil war in UKIP over size of the state and cultural conservtism at some point. Which I hope Carswell wins.
Incidentally, isn't it remarkable how irrelevant Labour are to political debate in the UK nowadays?
Yet they're still on course for a minority Gov't... like a political submarine.
I think many people fall into one of two camps, those that think Labour will never be in government, and those that think that Labour will implode within a month if they do get elected the first time they have to cut some departmental budgets.
Interesting to see how the votes are being distributed in that poll Shadsy posted earlier:
Lib Dem (68): SNP - 10 Con - 11 Lab - 16 Green - 11 Ind - 9
Green (208) SNP - 87 Con - 17 Lab - 33 Ind - 42
Next out - Con - who'l benefit, Tartan Tories or Unionists?
Con (359) SNP - 29 Lab - 100 Ind- 83
No transfer: 147
Ind (914) SNP - 229 Lab - 239
No transfer: 446
So Tories very anti-SNP while the Indie split on SNP & Labour but NOTA clearly ahead.
Interesting spot. It's a mixed area - former mining/industrial, farming, Edinburgh upmarket commuters - but in the old days one used not so much to count the Labour vote but use the coal wagon weighbridge to measure it.
EU immigration is mostly transient and with econimic progress will return home. Our tragedy is that we have people who are unemployable on the scap heap. So based on total crass ignorance kippers will hand us over to a europhile labour government.
To be fair UKIP is completely the Tories creation, when they signed Maastricht. It has largely grown due to the Tories when they disowned the shire tories and social conservatives. If Dave had hugged a few less hoodies, followed a few less huskies, and generally behaved like a Tory and not a Guardianista, UKIP would be no where.
As someone else has pointed out - we do not have UKIP any more, it is dead. What we have is BNPlite.
I am happy to vote for a decent PM in Cameron, a totally typical mainstream tory and not a shady dog whistling ting tong hating racist. You are the one who has to live with yourself, not me.
Incidentally, isn't it remarkable how irrelevant Labour are to political debate in the UK nowadays?
Yet they're still on course for a minority Gov't... like a political submarine.
I think many people fall into one of two camps, those that think Labour will never be in government, and those that think that Labour will implode within a month if they do get elected the first time they have to cut some departmental budgets.
I think you need to offer better than evens for that ^_~
Indeed so. A lot better than Evens. That is the point.
Socrates ran away clutching his purse making a clucking noise again ?
The bet's open to you too TGOHF. You can have a bet of £50 at evens that Cameron will hold a simple in versus out referendum based on a completed renegotiation with all relevant EU stakeholders. Will you take me up, or run away clucking?
Yes - if he has a majority.
Sorry - only other condition was "by the end of 2017", as per Cameron's commitment. Presumably that's not an issue at your end.
Hmm - before that why wouldn't you take up Richard's bet ? Why the big caveat about official negotiations with all EU authorities blah blah ? Seems like you are trying to trick me.
The bet should be if Cam wins a majority will there be a Uk wide referendum held on EU membership with the option of out on the table.
I thought Cameron said he would not take the role of PM if he couldn't offer a referendum? So whether he has a majority or not doesn't come into it
But that remains to be seen, and doesn't alter the fact that anyone who doesn't vote Conservative in a Conservative-target seat is by their vote making a Conservative government and the referendum less likely, and therefore a Miliband government more likely. Up to them, of course - I'm not saying the Conservatives have any droit de seigneur! But that is the reality.
Most of the Tory/Kipper waverers on here seem to be in rock steady Tory seats. Patrick has Dominic Raab, if he goes down Farage will be in No10. For me Jesse Norman won't be going anywhere unless the LDs have a startling recovery.
Hereford has its own very local brand of UKIP, It's Our County, perhaps they stand.
'‘He has marched us right up the hill and then pulled us down again. He’s probably lost the election for us today. Whether this will set something off, I do not know. There will be calls over the weekend to decide what to do.’
Another senior eurosceptic says:
‘I am in complete despair about it. It is as minimal as you can get. If this is what the renegotiation is going to be like, there isn’t going to be renegotiation, is there? The idea that we would leave the European Union just on the question of what we’re going to pay migrants in benefits, that’s like dying on the barbed wire for a tin of baked beans.’ "
Like you they are hysterics. I do not care what the renegotiations are like. I would have thought a eurosceptic would want them to fail. Whatever they are we will get a referendum. The only thing I worry about is the economic uncertainty whilst we either renegotiate or in the end leave and enter something else. The end result will not be much different if we can maintain business confidence whilst in the middle of the process.
The typical kipper notion that we can tell the world to go away by the act of leving the EU is of course absurd. Canada already has large immigration (21%) and has negotiated a free trade deal with the EU which enhances free movement of labour. Norway -- ? The total population that is either born outside Norway, or has one or two parents born abroad, or has one or more grandparents born abroad is 1,100,000 to 5,017,500 (which equals 21.9 percent). 86.2% of the total population are Ethnic Norwegians and more than 660,000 (13,2%) are migrants and their descendants (110,000] second generation migrants born in Norway). Of these 660 000 immigrants and their descendants 325,000 (49%)] have a non-Western background (Turkey, Morocco, Iraq, Somalia, Pakistan, Iran).
I will not bore you with what the immigrant population of Switzerland is.
EU immigration is mostly transient and with econimic progress will return home. Our tragedy is that we have people who are unemployable on the scap heap. So based on total crass ignorance kippers will hand us over to a europhile labour government.
"I will not bore you..."
Haven't we had enough broken pledges for one day?
No surprise that you want to ignore the facts of life in the outside world.
But that remains to be seen, and doesn't alter the fact that anyone who doesn't vote Conservative in a Conservative-target seat is by their vote making a Conservative government and the referendum less likely, and therefore a Miliband government more likely. Up to them, of course - I'm not saying the Conservatives have any droit de seigneur! But that is the reality.
Most of the Tory/Kipper waverers on here seem to be in rock steady Tory seats. Patrick has Dominic Raab, if he goes down Farage will be in No10. For me Jesse Norman won't be going anywhere unless the LDs have a startling recovery.
Indeed. If I was in a Labour/Tory marginal my vote would 100% be Dave's. But because of my location I have the luxury of using my vote as effectively a protest. I certainly want Ozzy as Chancellor (despite all the Alanbrooke type misgivings). But I am a firm BOOer. If I lived in Doncaster North I'd be voting UKIP for sure!
As someone else has pointed out - we do not have UKIP any more, it is dead. What we have is BNPlite.
That someone was you, the member that goes around saying ting-tong every five minutes as if it proved anything except you like the sound of racial epithets. If a tory used the N-word would you go around repeating it every few minutes ? I think I should going around saying duck-house for balance.
I think you need to offer better than evens for that ^_~
Indeed so. A lot better than Evens. That is the point.
Socrates ran away clutching his purse making a clucking noise again ?
The bet's open to you too TGOHF. You can have a bet of £50 at evens that Cameron will hold a simple in versus out referendum based on a completed renegotiation with all relevant EU stakeholders. Will you take me up, or run away clucking?
Yes - if he has a majority.
Sorry - only other condition was "by the end of 2017", as per Cameron's commitment. Presumably that's not an issue at your end.
Hmm - before that why wouldn't you take up Richard's bet ? Why the big caveat about official negotiations with all EU authorities blah blah ? Seems like you are trying to trick me.
The bet should be if Cam wins a majority will there be a Uk wide referendum held on EU membership with the option of out on the table.
I thought Cameron said he would not take the role of PM if he couldn't offer a referendum? So whether he has a majority or not doesn't come into it
He has, I think.
The offer is a clear potential hostage to fortune on a Con minority or coalition Gov't. He'll implement it if he gets a majority but I'd have thought Evens on a Conservative GOV'T for the pledge to be offered would be a fair price (Void if other) - though not sure which side of the bet I'd like to be on.
'‘He has marched us right up the hill and then pulled us down again. He’s probably lost the election for us today. Whether this will set something off, I do not know. There will be calls over the weekend to decide what to do.’
Another senior eurosceptic says:
‘I am in complete despair about it. It is as minimal as you can get. If this is what the renegotiation is going to be like, there isn’t going to be renegotiation, is there? The idea that we would leave the European Union just on the question of what we’re going to pay migrants in benefits, that’s like dying on the barbed wire for a tin of baked beans.’ "
Like you they are hysterics. I do not care what the renegotiations are like. I would have thought a eurosceptic would want them to fail. Whatever they are we will get a referendum. The only thing I worry about is the economic uncertainty whilst we either renegotiate or in the end leave and enter something else. The end result will not be much different if we can maintain business confidence whilst in the middle of the process.
The typical kipper notion that we can tell the world to go away by the act of leving the EU is of course absurd. Canada already has large immigration (21%) and has negotiated a free trade deal with the EU which enhances free movement of labour. Norway -- ? The total population that is either born outside Norway, or has one or two parents born abroad, or has one or more grandparents born abroad is 1,100,000 to 5,017,500 (which equals 21.9 percent). 86.2% of the total population are Ethnic Norwegians and more than 660,000 (13,2%) are migrants and their descendants (110,000] second generation migrants born in Norway). Of these 660 000 immigrants and their descendants 325,000 (49%)] have a non-Western background (Turkey, Morocco, Iraq, Somalia, Pakistan, Iran).
I will not bore you with what the immigrant population of Switzerland is.
EU immigration is mostly transient and with econimic progress will return home. Our tragedy is that we have people who are unemployable on the scap heap. So based on total crass ignorance kippers will hand us over to a europhile labour government.
"I will not bore you..."
Haven't we had enough broken pledges for one day?
No surprise that you want to ignore the facts of life in the outside world.
@Socrates, No, the bet is about whether David Cameron, or his Conservative successor if he's not PM at the time, will keep his promise and offer the referendum which the Kippers claim they want. It is not about what anyone else will do. It was offered in response to the statement made by you and others that he cannot be trusted.
That is the offer. I understand why no-one takes me up on it. They know I am correct, but can't bring themselves to admit it, because it makes a complete nonsense of the UKIP platform.
The terms as stated are still available to anyone credit-worthy, up to £1000. I don't expect any takers.
The main danger is not that Cameron won't offer a referendum. The bigger danger is this: were 'out' to win that referendum (which would be odds against, if Cameron campaigns to stay in) would Cameron really take Britain out of the EU? We do not trust him to lead Britain out of the EU. We feel that Cameron would somehow finesse the position so we'd stay in.
The best chance of leaving the EU is if the tory party campaigned to leave. UKIP does not believe that they would under Cameron.
If you want to quit the EU, there is currently only one rational choice. Voting for UKIP.
The stronger UKIP becomes, the more likely we are to leave the EU. We are making progress.
I think you need to offer better than evens for that ^_~
Indeed so. A lot better than Evens. That is the point.
Socrates ran away clutching his purse making a clucking noise again ?
The bet's open to you too TGOHF. You can have a bet of £50 at evens that Cameron will hold a simple in versus out referendum based on a completed renegotiation with all relevant EU stakeholders. Will you take me up, or run away clucking?
Yes - if he has a majority.
Sorry - only other condition was "by the end of 2017", as per Cameron's commitment. Presumably that's not an issue at your end.
Hmm - before that why wouldn't you take up Richard's bet ? Why the big caveat about official negotiations with all EU authorities blah blah ? Seems like you are trying to trick me.
The bet should be if Cam wins a majority will there be a Uk wide referendum held on EU membership with the option of out on the table.
I thought Cameron said he would not take the role of PM if he couldn't offer a referendum? So whether he has a majority or not doesn't come into it
No idea - not sure how that impacts the bet though.
I think you need to offer better than evens for that ^_~
Indeed so. A lot better than Evens. That is the point.
Socrates ran away clutching his purse making a clucking noise again ?
The bet's open to you too TGOHF. You can have a bet of £50 at evens that Cameron will hold a simple in versus out referendum based on a completed renegotiation with all relevant EU stakeholders. Will you take me up, or run away clucking?
Yes - if he has a majority.
Sorry - only other condition was "by the end of 2017", as per Cameron's commitment. Presumably that's not an issue at your end.
Hmm - before that why wouldn't you take up Richard's bet ? Why the big caveat about official negotiations with all EU authorities blah blah ? Seems like you are trying to trick me.
The bet should be if Cam wins a majority will there be a Uk wide referendum held on EU membership with the option of out on the table.
I thought Cameron said he would not take the role of PM if he couldn't offer a referendum? So whether he has a majority or not doesn't come into it
He has, I think.
The offer is a clear potential hostage to fortune on a Con minority or coalition Gov't. He'll implement it if he gets a majority but I'd have thought Evens on a Conservative GOV'T for the pledge to be offered would be a fair price (Void if other) - though not sure which side of the bet I'd like to be on.
Yes, the bet should be if Cameron is PM in 2017 will there be a referendum or not. Majority doesn't come into it
I think you need to offer better than evens for that ^_~
Indeed so. A lot better than Evens. That is the point.
Socrates ran away clutching his purse making a clucking noise again ?
The bet's open to you too TGOHF. You can have a bet of £50 at evens that Cameron will hold a simple in versus out referendum based on a completed renegotiation with all relevant EU stakeholders. Will you take me up, or run away clucking?
Yes - if he has a majority.
Sorry - only other condition was "by the end of 2017", as per Cameron's commitment. Presumably that's not an issue at your end.
Hmm - before that why wouldn't you take up Richard's bet ? Why the big caveat about official negotiations with all EU authorities blah blah ? Seems like you are trying to trick me.
The bet should be if Cam wins a majority will there be a Uk wide referendum held on EU membership with the option of out on the table.
I thought Cameron said he would not take the role of PM if he couldn't offer a referendum? So whether he has a majority or not doesn't come into it
He has, I think.
The offer is a clear potential hostage to fortune on a Con minority or coalition Gov't. He'll implement it if he gets a majority but I'd have thought Evens on a Conservative GOV'T for the pledge to be offered would be a fair price (Void if other) - though not sure which side of the bet I'd like to be on.
He said something that sounds like that - IIRC "If I am Prime Minister, this will happen". But this was in a speech full of things that he must have known wouldn't happen, so maybe it'll turn out to mean something different.
I think you need to offer better than evens for that ^_~
Indeed so. A lot better than Evens. That is the point.
Socrates ran away clutching his purse making a clucking noise again ?
The bet's open to you too TGOHF. You can have a bet of £50 at evens that Cameron will hold a simple in versus out referendum based on a completed renegotiation with all relevant EU stakeholders. Will you take me up, or run away clucking?
Yes - if he has a majority.
Sorry - only other condition was "by the end of 2017", as per Cameron's commitment. Presumably that's not an issue at your end.
Hmm - before that why wouldn't you take up Richard's bet ? Why the big caveat about official negotiations with all EU authorities blah blah ? Seems like you are trying to trick me.
The bet should be if Cam wins a majority will there be a Uk wide referendum held on EU membership with the option of out on the table.
I thought Cameron said he would not take the role of PM if he couldn't offer a referendum? So whether he has a majority or not doesn't come into it
He has, I think.
The offer is a clear potential hostage to fortune on a Con minority or coalition Gov't. He'll implement it if he gets a majority but I'd have thought Evens on a Conservative GOV'T for the pledge to be offered would be a fair price (Void if other) - though not sure which side of the bet I'd like to be on.
He said something that sounds like that - IIRC "If I am Prime Minister, this will happen". But this was in a speech full of things that he must have known wouldn't happen, so maybe it'll turn out to mean something different.
"David Cameron gives 'cast iron' guarantee over EU referendum
"I’ve said very clearly that whatever the outcome of the next general election – and of course I want an overall majority and I’m hoping and believing I can win an overall majority – but people should be in no doubt that I will not become Prime Minster unless I can guarantee that we can hold that referendum."
I think you need to offer better than evens for that ^_~
Indeed so. A lot better than Evens. That is the point.
Socrates ran away clutching his purse making a clucking noise again ?
The bet's open to you too TGOHF. You can have a bet of £50 at evens that Cameron will hold a simple in versus out referendum based on a completed renegotiation with all relevant EU stakeholders. Will you take me up, or run away clucking?
Yes - if he has a majority.
Sorry - only other condition was "by the end of 2017", as per Cameron's commitment. Presumably that's not an issue at your end.
Hmm - before that why wouldn't you take up Richard's bet ? Why the big caveat about official negotiations with all EU authorities blah blah ? Seems like you are trying to trick me.
The bet should be if Cam wins a majority will there be a Uk wide referendum held on EU membership with the option of out on the table.
I thought Cameron said he would not take the role of PM if he couldn't offer a referendum? So whether he has a majority or not doesn't come into it
He has, I think.
The offer is a clear potential hostage to fortune on a Con minority or coalition Gov't. He'll implement it if he gets a majority but I'd have thought Evens on a Conservative GOV'T for the pledge to be offered would be a fair price (Void if other) - though not sure which side of the bet I'd like to be on.
Yes, the bet should be if Cameron is PM in 2017 will there be a referendum or not. Majority doesn't come into it
Thats the difference - if there was a choice between 5 years of Ed + Lds + SNP and no referendum or 5 years of Con + LDs + SNP and no referendum as the price for confidence + supply - I would take the latter.
Graham Moore UKIP @GrahamHmoore 8m8 minutes ago Welwyn Garden City, East @SuzanneEvans1 ANTI UKIP petition going round NHS and workers are BEING forced to sign it, if they don't they are "accused" of being racist
A just reward for the flip flopping over the NHS? Ironic after the left wing shift at your Conference!
The Kippers are angry (try not to hide your surprise!)
Der Spiegel is accusing Cameron of blackmailing the EU
Yvette Cooper claims they were her ideas all along
And the Guardian shrieks that it's a race to the bottom on immigration.
I think we may reasonably conclude that Cameron has got it spot-on.
Peter Bone - ''This is a huge step forward, it’s banning benefits for four years, returning people who are criminals, many of these are central measures which we are right to implement. I don’t think the Prime Minister will succeed and I look forward to joining him on the campaign trail for a ‘No’ vote which will happen before 2017. It’s only the Conservatives that are attempting to do it, it’s a step forward, ''
Mark Pritchard - ''The speech was necessarily thoughtful and politically achievable. It also rightly balanced the needs of the UK economy whilst recognising public concerns over the speed and scale of some EU migration. The new benefit curbs are welcome and will act as a natural brake on those from the EU who may be temped to come to the UK as benefit tourists.'' (the above from The Spectator which others simply cherry picked the headline)
What Peter Bone needs to recognise is that I too will vote for a 'No', but the reality is that being in the EEA will make limited difference to immigration. Its being driven by other things, the EU just makes it 'easier'. It will make limited difference to EU single market regulations. It will make limited difference to EU payments. We will have to live with the EU and if outside it we will have no influence. And unless we vote tory ad infinitum then at some stage a Labour govt will take us closer to it again.
EU immigration is mostly transient and with econimic progress will return home. Our tragedy is that we have people who are unemployable on the scap heap. So based on total crass ignorance kippers will hand us over to a europhile labour government.
To be fair UKIP is completely the Tories creation, when they signed Maastricht. It has largely grown due to the Tories when they disowned the shire tories and social conservatives. If Dave had hugged a few less hoodies, followed a few less huskies, and generally behaved like a Tory and not a Guardianista, UKIP would be no where.
As someone else has pointed out - we do not have UKIP any more, it is dead. What we have is BNPlite.
I am happy to vote for a decent PM in Cameron, a totally typical mainstream tory and not a shady dog whistling ting tong hating racist. You are the one who has to live with yourself, not me.
It's just as well UKIP doesn't have prominent members telling police officers that they're "f*cking plebs."
If you want to quit the EU, there is currently only one rational choice. Voting for UKIP.
If you want to quit the EU, putting Ed in No 10 is not rational. It is monumental self-harm.
Quitting the EU is more likely to happen under Miliband than under Cameron. The stronger UKIP becomes, the more likely it will be that any PM will offer a referendum. 'Out' under a weak EM govt is by far our best chance.
Graham Moore UKIP @GrahamHmoore 8m8 minutes ago Welwyn Garden City, East @SuzanneEvans1 ANTI UKIP petition going round NHS and workers are BEING forced to sign it, if they don't they are "accused" of being racist
Fits in with the report I just posted about the UKIP candidate for Norwich South being banned from a debate at the University of East Anglia.
Both are totally counterproductive IMO. Amazing UKIP's opponents can't see that.
I think you need to offer better than evens for that ^_~
Indeed so. A lot better than Evens. That is the point.
Socrates ran away clutching his purse making a clucking noise again ?
The bet's open to you too TGOHF. You can have a bet of £50 at evens that Cameron will hold a simple in versus out referendum based on a completed renegotiation with all relevant EU stakeholders. Will you take me up, or run away clucking?
Yes - if he has a majority.
Sorry - only other condition was "by the end of 2017", as per Cameron's commitment. Presumably that's not an issue at your end.
Hmm - before that why wouldn't you take up Richard's bet ? Why the big caveat about official negotiations with all EU authorities blah blah ? Seems like you are trying to trick me.
The bet should be if Cam wins a majority will there be a Uk wide referendum held on EU membership with the option of out on the table.
I thought Cameron said he would not take the role of PM if he couldn't offer a referendum? So whether he has a majority or not doesn't come into it
He has, I think.
The offer is a clear potential hostage to fortune on a Con minority or coalition Gov't. He'll implement it if he gets a majority but I'd have thought Evens on a Conservative GOV'T for the pledge to be offered would be a fair price (Void if other) - though not sure which side of the bet I'd like to be on.
He said something that sounds like that - IIRC "If I am Prime Minister, this will happen". But this was in a speech full of things that he must have known wouldn't happen, so maybe it'll turn out to mean something different.
"David Cameron gives 'cast iron' guarantee over EU referendum
"I’ve said very clearly that whatever the outcome of the next general election – and of course I want an overall majority and I’m hoping and believing I can win an overall majority – but people should be in no doubt that I will not become Prime Minster unless I can guarantee that we can hold that referendum."
If you want to quit the EU, there is currently only one rational choice. Voting for UKIP.
If you want to quit the EU, putting Ed in No 10 is not rational. It is monumental self-harm.
Quitting the EU is more likely to happen under Miliband than under Cameron. The stronger UKIP becomes, the more likely it will be that any PM will offer a referendum. 'Out' under a weak EM govt is by far our best chance.
By what mechanism would we leave under "no referendum Ed"- a twitter hashtag trending ?
Think longer term. Think Machiavelli. An Ed premiership could give BOO rocket boosters.
How many more treaties could he sign while Kippers are "thinking long term"? He could even join the ******* Euro
It's insanity
Thats a permanent danger. If Dave wins, and hold the referendum, and wins by say 55/45. Come a Labour win in 2020 all the above still applies. The only way you can stop Labour having any realistic chance of taking us into the Euro, and signing all sorts of idiotic treaties, is by not being in the EU.
Think longer term. Think Machiavelli. An Ed premiership could give BOO rocket boosters.
How many more treaties could he sign while Kippers are "thinking long term"? He could even join the ******* Euro
It's insanity
Thats a permanent danger. If Dave wins, and hold the referendum, and wins by say 55/45. Come a Labour win in 2020 all the above still applies. The only way you can stop Labour having any realistic chance of taking us into the Euro, and signing all sorts of idiotic treaties, is by not being in the EU.
No, the only way you can stop Labour having any realistic chance of taking us into the Euro, and not signing all sorts of idiotic treaties, is by ensuring Labour never get power again.
But UKIP are quite happy to see Ed as Prime Minister. Which is just fecking bizarre in the extreme....
If you want to quit the EU, there is currently only one rational choice. Voting for UKIP.
If you want to quit the EU, putting Ed in No 10 is not rational. It is monumental self-harm.
Quitting the EU is more likely to happen under Miliband than under Cameron. The stronger UKIP becomes, the more likely it will be that any PM will offer a referendum. 'Out' under a weak EM govt is by far our best chance.
EU immigration is mostly transient and with econimic progress will return home. Our tragedy is that we have people who are unemployable on the scap heap. So based on total crass ignorance kippers will hand us over to a europhile labour government.
To be fair UKIP is completely the Tories creation, when they signed Maastricht. It has largely grown due to the Tories when they disowned the shire tories and social conservatives. If Dave had hugged a few less hoodies, followed a few less huskies, and generally behaved like a Tory and not a Guardianista, UKIP would be no where.
As someone else has pointed out - we do not have UKIP any more, it is dead. What we have is BNPlite.
I am happy to vote for a decent PM in Cameron, a totally typical mainstream tory and not a shady dog whistling ting tong hating racist. You are the one who has to live with yourself, not me.
I've finally had enough of your bull and it stops right now.
Would you would provide an explanation, if UKIP are so damned racist why myself (Italian), Sunil (Indian) and MikeK (Jewish) are supporters/members?
Why are so many UKIP candidates members of ethnic minorities?
If you want to quit the EU, there is currently only one rational choice. Voting for UKIP.
If you want to quit the EU, putting Ed in No 10 is not rational. It is monumental self-harm.
Quitting the EU is more likely to happen under Miliband than under Cameron. The stronger UKIP becomes, the more likely it will be that any PM will offer a referendum. 'Out' under a weak EM govt is by far our best chance.
Yes indeed
Long lunch ?
Under what circumstances would we have a referendum under Labour ?
Think longer term. Think Machiavelli. An Ed premiership could give BOO rocket boosters.
How many more treaties could he sign while Kippers are "thinking long term"? He could even join the ******* Euro
It's insanity
Thats a permanent danger. If Dave wins, and hold the referendum, and wins by say 55/45. Come a Labour win in 2020 all the above still applies. The only way you can stop Labour having any realistic chance of taking us into the Euro, and signing all sorts of idiotic treaties, is by not being in the EU.
No, the only way you can stop Labour having any realistic chance of taking us into the Euro, and not signing all sorts of idiotic treaties, is by ensuring Labour never get power again.
But UKIP are quite happy to see Ed as Prime Minister. Which is just fecking bizarre in the extreme....
Now you're dreaming, even under Thatcher, the Tories most totemic leader, the reign came to an end, Labour got in, it will always happen. Cameron isn't Thatcher, he wont last 11 years, especially not making promises that he can't possibly keep even with a majority. Leaving the EU would mean at best starting negotiations all over again which would take decades, not something a labour government could attempt.
If you want to quit the EU, there is currently only one rational choice. Voting for UKIP.
If you want to quit the EU, putting Ed in No 10 is not rational. It is monumental self-harm.
Quitting the EU is more likely to happen under Miliband than under Cameron. The stronger UKIP becomes, the more likely it will be that any PM will offer a referendum. 'Out' under a weak EM govt is by far our best chance.
Just not going to happen under Ed. Bit like saying Scotland less likely to become independent if Sturgeon loses Holyrood elections because Murphy ( or whoever ) will balls it up.
You want a chance at out? Hold your nose and vote Dave. Otherwise you've got five years of Ed signing away things you won't like.
If you want to quit the EU, there is currently only one rational choice. Voting for UKIP.
If you want to quit the EU, putting Ed in No 10 is not rational. It is monumental self-harm.
Quitting the EU is more likely to happen under Miliband than under Cameron. The stronger UKIP becomes, the more likely it will be that any PM will offer a referendum. 'Out' under a weak EM govt is by far our best chance.
Yes indeed
Delusional. Ed Miliband has the EU written through his DNA. As do all of the senior Labour figures.
Under Labour YOU GET NO VOICE ON THE EU. You take it. Grasp your ankles, Britain, and assume the position.
When Ed joins the Euro (without a referendum) there will be a smirking Nigel Farage on the back of the 50 Euro note - with a scroll reading "Without whom none of this would have been possible".
Think longer term. Think Machiavelli. An Ed premiership could give BOO rocket boosters.
How many more treaties could he sign while Kippers are "thinking long term"? He could even join the ******* Euro
It's insanity
Thats a permanent danger. If Dave wins, and hold the referendum, and wins by say 55/45. Come a Labour win in 2020 all the above still applies. The only way you can stop Labour having any realistic chance of taking us into the Euro, and signing all sorts of idiotic treaties, is by not being in the EU.
No, the only way you can stop Labour having any realistic chance of taking us into the Euro, and not signing all sorts of idiotic treaties, is by ensuring Labour never get power again.
But UKIP are quite happy to see Ed as Prime Minister. Which is just fecking bizarre in the extreme....
Now you're dreaming, even under Thatcher, the Tories most totemic leader, the reign came to an end, Labour got in, it will always happen. Cameron isn't Thatcher, he wont last 11 years, especially not making promises that he can't possibly keep even with a majority. Leaving the EU would mean at best starting negotiations all over again which would take decades, not something a labour government could attempt.
Your lack of ambition in replacing Labour shines through for all to see.
Perhaps a Kipper can describe a scenario in a few bullet points how we would have a referendum under Ed between 2015-2020. No drug tests so knock yourselves out..
If you want to quit the EU, there is currently only one rational choice. Voting for UKIP.
If you want to quit the EU, putting Ed in No 10 is not rational. It is monumental self-harm.
Quitting the EU is more likely to happen under Miliband than under Cameron. The stronger UKIP becomes, the more likely it will be that any PM will offer a referendum. 'Out' under a weak EM govt is by far our best chance.
Yes indeed
Long lunch ?
Under what circumstances would we have a referendum under Labour ?
Haha you wont catch me drinking at lunchtime, I have had two protein shakes all day!
I think there is a chance that Miliband may offer one if he continues to fall in the polls, but the main reason is not that Miliband will offer one at all but that a weak Labour minority would be so unpopular that there could be a vote of no confidence/snap GE a year or two in. Then a Tory BOO LOTO could campaign with UKIP to leave.
The new Labour leader could well be pro referendum, there are plenty in the party who are inc Len McCluske, Ed Balls, Jon Cruddas.
I understand you are a Conservative and want a Conservative PM at all costs but I am not and real change means getting rid of the men at the top For that to happen UKIP have to get as many votes as possible
Also, regardless, I wouldn't vote tactically, I would always vote for the party I want to win. Could never vote for Cameron, as I think he is insincere
If you want to quit the EU, there is currently only one rational choice. Voting for UKIP.
If you want to quit the EU, putting Ed in No 10 is not rational. It is monumental self-harm.
Quitting the EU is more likely to happen under Miliband than under Cameron. The stronger UKIP becomes, the more likely it will be that any PM will offer a referendum. 'Out' under a weak EM govt is by far our best chance.
Yes indeed
Long lunch ?
Under what circumstances would we have a referendum under Labour ?
Haha you wont catch me drinking at lunchtime, I have had two protein shakes all day!
I think there is a chance that Miliband may offer one if he continues to fall in the polls, but the main reason is not that Miliband will offer one at all but that a weak Labour minority would be so unpopular that there could be a vote of no confidence/snap GE a year or two in. Then a Tory BOO LOTO could campaign with UKIP to leave.
The new Labour leader could well be pro referendum, there are plenty in the party who are inc Len McCluske, Ed Balls, Jon Cruddas.
I understand you are a Conservative and want a Conservative PM at all costs but I am not and real change means getting rid of the men at the top For that to happen UKIP have to get as many votes as possible
Also, regardless, I wouldn't vote tactically, I would always vote for the party I want to win. Could never vote for Cameron, as I think he is insincere
No not a referendum under Ed. Meanwhile 2-3 years of utter crap government and economic ruin.
If you want to quit the EU, there is currently only one rational choice. Voting for UKIP.
If you want to quit the EU, putting Ed in No 10 is not rational. It is monumental self-harm.
Quitting the EU is more likely to happen under Miliband than under Cameron. The stronger UKIP becomes, the more likely it will be that any PM will offer a referendum. 'Out' under a weak EM govt is by far our best chance.
Yes indeed
Long lunch ?
Under what circumstances would we have a referendum under Labour ?
Haha you wont catch me drinking at lunchtime, I have had two protein shakes all day!
I think there is a chance that Miliband may offer one if he continues to fall in the polls, but the main reason is not that Miliband will offer one at all but that a weak Labour minority would be so unpopular that there could be a vote of no confidence/snap GE a year or two in. Then a Tory BOO LOTO could campaign with UKIP to leave.
The new Labour leader could well be pro referendum, there are plenty in the party who are inc Len McCluske, Ed Balls, Jon Cruddas.
I understand you are a Conservative and want a Conservative PM at all costs but I am not and real change means getting rid of the men at the top For that to happen UKIP have to get as many votes as possible
Also, regardless, I wouldn't vote tactically, I would always vote for the party I want to win. Could never vote for Cameron, as I think he is insincere
And if Ed has a majority of say 30-40 how's the no confidence going to happen? He only needs to be say 34-32 ahead.
If you want to quit the EU, there is currently only one rational choice. Voting for UKIP.
If you want to quit the EU, putting Ed in No 10 is not rational. It is monumental self-harm.
If you want to do anything under FPTP, then the rational position is to consider who has a chance of winning in your particular constituency and voting for the best option in that context. It is pretty meaningless to make any general statement: the answer is going to be very different whether you are in Belfast East (vote DUP if you want to quit EU, I guess), Clacton (vote UKIP if you want to quit EU) or Hampstead & Kilburn (Conservative would be your best hope here). Ditto if you want to stay in the EU and that's your key policy issue (Alliance, arguably Conservative, and Labour, respectively).
If you want to quit the EU, there is currently only one rational choice. Voting for UKIP.
If you want to quit the EU, putting Ed in No 10 is not rational. It is monumental self-harm.
Quitting the EU is more likely to happen under Miliband than under Cameron. The stronger UKIP becomes, the more likely it will be that any PM will offer a referendum. 'Out' under a weak EM govt is by far our best chance.
Yes indeed
Delusional. Ed Miliband has the EU written through his DNA. As do all of the senior Labour figures.
Under Labour YOU GET NO VOICE ON THE EU. You take it. Grasp your ankles, Britain, and assume the position.
When Ed joins the Euro (without a referendum) there will be a smirking Nigel Farage on the back of the 50 Euro note - with a scroll reading "Without whom none of this would have been possible".
Maybe if the Tories dont like UKIP they shouldn't have made it, as I commented below its entirely their fault. UKIP came into existence when the Tories signed Maastricht, their initial membership were all shire tories and social conservatives disowned by a flurry of futile chasing after Guardian readers. The Tories complaining about UKIP is like my 5 year-old saying "when i do this, it hurts", to which the obvious reply is "stop doing it then", so doing things that make UKIP stronger. Several Tory UKIP wavers have opted for UKIP on this site in the last week because of the constant disrespect and pointless whining from Tories (see Casino/Patrick etc earlier), you have no one to blame but yourselves.
If you want to quit the EU, there is currently only one rational choice. Voting for UKIP.
If you want to quit the EU, putting Ed in No 10 is not rational. It is monumental self-harm.
Quitting the EU is more likely to happen under Miliband than under Cameron. The stronger UKIP becomes, the more likely it will be that any PM will offer a referendum. 'Out' under a weak EM govt is by far our best chance.
Yes indeed
Long lunch ?
Under what circumstances would we have a referendum under Labour ?
Haha you wont catch me drinking at lunchtime, I have had two protein shakes all day!
I think there is a chance that Miliband may offer one if he continues to fall in the polls, but the main reason is not that Miliband will offer one at all but that a weak Labour minority would be so unpopular that there could be a vote of no confidence/snap GE a year or two in. Then a Tory BOO LOTO could campaign with UKIP to leave.
The new Labour leader could well be pro referendum, there are plenty in the party who are inc Len McCluske, Ed Balls, Jon Cruddas.
I understand you are a Conservative and want a Conservative PM at all costs but I am not and real change means getting rid of the men at the top For that to happen UKIP have to get as many votes as possible
Also, regardless, I wouldn't vote tactically, I would always vote for the party I want to win. Could never vote for Cameron, as I think he is insincere
And if Ed has a majority of say 30-40 how's the no confidence going to happen? He only needs to be say 34-32 ahead.
I think you should encourage people to vote how they want to and see where it leaves us. If I could get every Tory to vote UKIP then we would have a PM who wants out of the EU and would have a referendum tmrw. Isnt going to happen so I don't try, just as the "vote Nigel get Ed" line doesn't work on us either, not to mention the places where a UKIP vote stops Ed (Thurrock/Grimsby/Rotherham/Rother Valley/Heywood/Telford)
Krishnan Guru-Murthy @krishgm · 7h 7 hours ago If, as Cameron says, the key to immigration is 'control' that is the thing no EU member has, as Ukip will no doubt repeat all day
The amazing doublethink of Tories on here is something to behold
Ed Miliband is simultaenously weak, unpopular, unable to connect with voters & with enemies all over the party that want him out but able, if elected with a wafer thin margin, to oversee a strong government lasting a decade or more, that wont be influenced by outside forces and with no hope of ousting him
It was only a fortnight ago everyone seemed to think he wouldn't see the year out
If you want to quit the EU, there is currently only one rational choice. Voting for UKIP.
If you want to quit the EU, putting Ed in No 10 is not rational. It is monumental self-harm.
Quitting the EU is more likely to happen under Miliband than under Cameron. The stronger UKIP becomes, the more likely it will be that any PM will offer a referendum. 'Out' under a weak EM govt is by far our best chance.
Yes indeed
Long lunch ?
Under what circumstances would we have a referendum under Labour ?
Haha you wont catch me drinking at lunchtime, I have had two protein shakes all day!
I think there is a chance that Miliband may offer one if he continues to fall in the polls, but the main reason is not that Miliband will offer one at all but that a weak Labour minority would be so unpopular that there could be a vote of no confidence/snap GE a year or two in. Then a Tory BOO LOTO could campaign with UKIP to leave.
The new Labour leader could well be pro referendum, there are plenty in the party who are inc Len McCluske, Ed Balls, Jon Cruddas.
I understand you are a Conservative and want a Conservative PM at all costs but I am not and real change means getting rid of the men at the top For that to happen UKIP have to get as many votes as possible
Also, regardless, I wouldn't vote tactically, I would always vote for the party I want to win. Could never vote for Cameron, as I think he is insincere
And if Ed has a majority of say 30-40 how's the no confidence going to happen? He only needs to be say 34-32 ahead.
I think you should encourage people to vote how they want to and see where it leaves us. If I could get every Tory to vote UKIP then we would have a PM who wants out of the EU and would have a referendum tmrw. Isnt going to happen so I don't try, just as the "vote Nigel get Ed" line doesn't work on us either, not to mention the places where a UKIP vote stops Ed (Thurrock/Grimsby/Rotherham/Rother Valley/Heywood/Telford)
Take the point, but it's fiendishly hard to get Ed with a wobbly minority and then manoeuvre as he flounders from there. A wobbly Ed on 285 seats propped up by Nick on 30 and CandS by writ from Edinburgh is a mere psephological hair's width from Ed on 335 and not giving a stuff.
The amazing doublethink of Tories on here is something to behold
Ed Miliband is simultaenously weak, unpopular, unable to connect with voters & with enemies all over the party that want him out but able, if elected with a wafer thin margin, to oversee a strong government lasting a decade or more, that wont be influenced by outside forces and with no hope of ousting him
It was only a fortnight ago everyone seemed to think he wouldn't see the year out
TBF the combination of FPTP and the Labour leadership rules makes this a bit less contradictory than it sounds...
If you want to quit the EU, there is currently only one rational choice. Voting for UKIP.
If you want to quit the EU, putting Ed in No 10 is not rational. It is monumental self-harm.
Quitting the EU is more likely to happen under Miliband than under Cameron. The stronger UKIP becomes, the more likely it will be that any PM will offer a referendum. 'Out' under a weak EM govt is by far our best chance.
Yes indeed
Delusional. Ed Miliband has the EU written through his DNA. As do all of the senior Labour figures.
Under Labour YOU GET NO VOICE ON THE EU. You take it. Grasp your ankles, Britain, and assume the position.
When Ed joins the Euro (without a referendum) there will be a smirking Nigel Farage on the back of the 50 Euro note - with a scroll reading "Without whom none of this would have been possible".
True. We should erect a statue to the Conservative Chancellor Gordon Brown who kept us out of the Euro rather than continue on the Eurozone-bound path of Labour's Lawson, Major, Lamont and Howe.
If you want to quit the EU, there is currently only one rational choice. Voting for UKIP.
If you want to quit the EU, putting Ed in No 10 is not rational. It is monumental self-harm.
Quitting the EU is more likely to happen under Miliband than under Cameron. The stronger UKIP becomes, the more likely it will be that any PM will offer a referendum. 'Out' under a weak EM govt is by far our best chance.
Yes indeed
Delusional. Ed Miliband has the EU written through his DNA. As do all of the senior Labour figures.
Under Labour YOU GET NO VOICE ON THE EU. You take it. Grasp your ankles, Britain, and assume the position.
When Ed joins the Euro (without a referendum) there will be a smirking Nigel Farage on the back of the 50 Euro note - with a scroll reading "Without whom none of this would have been possible".
Maybe if the Tories dont like UKIP they shouldn't have made it, as I commented below its entirely their fault. UKIP came into existence when the Tories signed Maastricht, their initial membership were all shire tories and social conservatives disowned by a flurry of futile chasing after Guardian readers. The Tories complaining about UKIP is like my 5 year-old saying "when i do this, it hurts", to which the obvious reply is "stop doing it then", so doing things that make UKIP stronger. Several Tory UKIP wavers have opted for UKIP on this site in the last week because of the constant disrespect and pointless whining from Tories (see Casino/Patrick etc earlier), you have no one to blame but yourselves.
Pathetic. UKIP are a disaster - 'oh thats all right its all the tories fault'
UKIP are the ones with the racist hate filled scare mongering dog whistles. Immigration is fact in or out of the EU but lets ignore that, what counts is the ambition of the delusional kipper leadership.
Ed doesn't give a fig for Europe. None of the Labour leadership do. Their fight is still the 19th century fight of equality. The fact that they long ago won this fight has entirely passed them by. In their minds there is this big bad wolf called 'Tory' and he owns everything and employs minions who are harshly treated.
EU immigration is mostly transient and with econimic progress will return home. Our tragedy is that we have people who are unemployable on the scap heap. So based on total crass ignorance kippers will hand us over to a europhile labour government.
To be fair UKIP is completely the Tories creation, when they signed Maastricht. It has largely grown due to the Tories when they disowned the shire tories and social conservatives. If Dave had hugged a few less hoodies, followed a few less huskies, and generally behaved like a Tory and not a Guardianista, UKIP would be no where.
As someone else has pointed out - we do not have UKIP any more, it is dead. What we have is BNPlite.
I am happy to vote for a decent PM in Cameron, a totally typical mainstream tory and not a shady dog whistling ting tong hating racist. You are the one who has to live with yourself, not me.
I've finally had enough of your bull and it stops right now.
Would you would provide an explanation, if UKIP are so damned racist why myself (Italian), Sunil (Indian) and MikeK (Jewish) are supporters/members?
Why are so many UKIP candidates members of ethnic minorities?
By the way, which ethnic minority are you a member of?
Ha - the thick woman called her own supporter a ting tong. Can you guess what they call you behind your back? Only the other day you and other kippers were berating a labour MP for allegedly sneering at her own (WWC) supporters. You think St Nigel is so pure - pure enough to ally with a Polish neo nazi. Facts dictate the truith about UKIP. UKIP are racist they peddle racist language all the time (Farage was notorious about Romanians next door wink wink nudge nudge) they are pushing it way beyond what they thought they could get away with. Just because you are daft sad and pathetic does not make me wrong.
The amazing doublethink of Tories on here is something to behold
Ed Miliband is simultaenously weak, unpopular, unable to connect with voters & with enemies all over the party that want him out but able, if elected with a wafer thin margin, to oversee a strong government lasting a decade or more, that wont be influenced by outside forces and with no hope of ousting him
It was only a fortnight ago everyone seemed to think he wouldn't see the year out
TBF the combination of FPTP and the Labour leadership rules makes this a bit less contradictory than it sounds...
The prominent bettors on here seem to think NOM is the value bet, even at 1.5 (1/2).. if they are right then there is very little chance of either Ed or Dave getting a majority, and it is very likely we will have a weak government that will have to dance to the tune of smaller parties.
EU immigration is mostly transient and with econimic progress will return home. Our tragedy is that we have people who are unemployable on the scap heap. So based on total crass ignorance kippers will hand us over to a europhile labour government.
To be fair UKIP is completely the Tories creation, when they signed Maastricht. It has largely grown due to the Tories when they disowned the shire tories and social conservatives. If Dave had hugged a few less hoodies, followed a few less huskies, and generally behaved like a Tory and not a Guardianista, UKIP would be no where.
As someone else has pointed out - we do not have UKIP any more, it is dead. What we have is BNPlite.
I am happy to vote for a decent PM in Cameron, a totally typical mainstream tory and not a shady dog whistling ting tong hating racist. You are the one who has to live with yourself, not me.
I've finally had enough of your bull and it stops right now.
Would you would provide an explanation, if UKIP are so damned racist why myself (Italian), Sunil (Indian) and MikeK (Jewish) are supporters/members?
Why are so many UKIP candidates members of ethnic minorities?
By the way, which ethnic minority are you a member of?
Ha - the thick woman called her own supporter a ting tong. Can you guess what they call you behind your back? Only the other day you and other kippers were berating a labour MP for allegedly sneering at her own (WWC) supporters. You think St Nigel is so pure - pure enough to ally with a Polish neo nazi. Facts dictate the truith about UKIP. UKIP are racist they peddle racist language all the time (Farage was notorious about Romanians next door wink wink nudge nudge) they are pushing it way beyond what they thought they could get away with. Just because you are daft sad and pathetic does not make me wrong.
The amazing doublethink of Tories on here is something to behold
Ed Miliband is simultaenously weak, unpopular, unable to connect with voters & with enemies all over the party that want him out but able, if elected with a wafer thin margin, to oversee a strong government lasting a decade or more, that wont be influenced by outside forces and with no hope of ousting him
It was only a fortnight ago everyone seemed to think he wouldn't see the year out
Ed answers to Len and Len doesn't want a referendum - zero chance , nil , none .
Whatabouttery instead of arguing the feeble case for a referendum under Labour.
EU immigration is mostly transient and with econimic progress will return home. Our tragedy is that we have people who are unemployable on the scap heap. So based on total crass ignorance kippers will hand us over to a europhile labour government.
To be fair UKIP is completely the Tories creation, when they signed Maastricht. It has largely grown due to the Tories when they disowned the shire tories and social conservatives. If Dave had hugged a few less hoodies, followed a few less huskies, and generally behaved like a Tory and not a Guardianista, UKIP would be no where.
As someone else has pointed out - we do not have UKIP any more, it is dead. What we have is BNPlite.
I am happy to vote for a decent PM in Cameron, a totally typical mainstream tory and not a shady dog whistling ting tong hating racist. You are the one who has to live with yourself, not me.
I've finally had enough of your bull and it stops right now.
Would you would provide an explanation, if UKIP are so damned racist why myself (Italian), Sunil (Indian) and MikeK (Jewish) are supporters/members?
Why are so many UKIP candidates members of ethnic minorities?
By the way, which ethnic minority are you a member of?
Ha - the thick woman called her own supporter a ting tong. Can you guess what they call you behind your back? Only the other day you and other kippers were berating a labour MP for allegedly sneering at her own (WWC) supporters. You think St Nigel is so pure - pure enough to ally with a Polish neo nazi. Facts dictate the truith about UKIP. UKIP are racist they peddle racist language all the time (Farage was notorious about Romanians next door wink wink nudge nudge) they are pushing it way beyond what they thought they could get away with. Just because you are daft sad and pathetic does not make me wrong.
Are you a native English speaker Flightpath? There's something quite Germanic about your posting style.
EU immigration is mostly transient and with econimic progress will return home. Our tragedy is that we have people who are unemployable on the scap heap. So based on total crass ignorance kippers will hand us over to a europhile labour government.
To be fair UKIP is completely the Tories creation, when they signed Maastricht. It has largely grown due to the Tories when they disowned the shire tories and social conservatives. If Dave had hugged a few less hoodies, followed a few less huskies, and generally behaved like a Tory and not a Guardianista, UKIP would be no where.
As someone else has pointed out - we do not have UKIP any more, it is dead. What we have is BNPlite.
I am happy to vote for a decent PM in Cameron, a totally typical mainstream tory and not a shady dog whistling ting tong hating racist. You are the one who has to live with yourself, not me.
I've finally had enough of your bull and it stops right now.
Would you would provide an explanation, if UKIP are so damned racist why myself (Italian), Sunil (Indian) and MikeK (Jewish) are supporters/members?
Why are so many UKIP candidates members of ethnic minorities?
By the way, which ethnic minority are you a member of?
Ha - the thick woman called her own supporter a ting tong. Can you guess what they call you behind your back? Only the other day you and other kippers were berating a labour MP for allegedly sneering at her own (WWC) supporters. You think St Nigel is so pure - pure enough to ally with a Polish neo nazi. Facts dictate the truith about UKIP. UKIP are racist they peddle racist language all the time (Farage was notorious about Romanians next door wink wink nudge nudge) they are pushing it way beyond what they thought they could get away with. Just because you are daft sad and pathetic does not make me wrong.
Are you a native English speaker Flightpath? There's something quite Germanic about your posting style.
it is very likely we will have a weak government that will have to dance to the tune of smaller parties.
Yes, the SNP, DUP and LibDems.
Quite how that is supposed to help UKIP is a complete mystery.
In practice what would happen in that scenario is that the Conservatives would be split and weak, leaving Labour to win the next election or two.
Maybe after a decade or so of weak government, national decline and ever-closer union, things might start looking up, but it's not necessarily so. Last time we entered a spiral of decline, it took the country about 15 years to finally accept the need to face reality, and even then we might not have got back on track had it not been for the helpful intervention of General Galtieri.
EU immigration is mostly transient and with econimic progress will return home. Our tragedy is that we have people who are unemployable on the scap heap. So based on total crass ignorance kippers will hand us over to a europhile labour government.
To be fair UKIP is completely the Tories creation, when they signed Maastricht. It has largely grown due to the Tories when they disowned the shire tories and social conservatives. If Dave had hugged a few less hoodies, followed a few less huskies, and generally behaved like a Tory and not a Guardianista, UKIP would be no where.
As someone else has pointed out - we do not have UKIP any more, it is dead. What we have is BNPlite.
I am happy to vote for a decent PM in Cameron, a totally typical mainstream tory and not a shady dog whistling ting tong hating racist. You are the one who has to live with yourself, not me.
I've finally had enough of your bull and it stops right now.
Would you would provide an explanation, if UKIP are so damned racist why myself (Italian), Sunil (Indian) and MikeK (Jewish) are supporters/members?
Why are so many UKIP candidates members of ethnic minorities?
By the way, which ethnic minority are you a member of?
Ha - the thick woman called her own supporter a ting tong. Can you guess what they call you behind your back? Only the other day you and other kippers were berating a labour MP for allegedly sneering at her own (WWC) supporters. You think St Nigel is so pure - pure enough to ally with a Polish neo nazi. Facts dictate the truith about UKIP. UKIP are racist they peddle racist language all the time (Farage was notorious about Romanians next door wink wink nudge nudge) they are pushing it way beyond what they thought they could get away with. Just because you are daft sad and pathetic does not make me wrong.
Are you a native English speaker Flightpath? There's something quite Germanic about your posting style.
it is very likely we will have a weak government that will have to dance to the tune of smaller parties.
Yes, the SNP, DUP and LibDems.
Quite how that is supposed to help UKIP is a complete mystery.
In practice what would happen in that scenario is that the Conservatives would be split and weak, leaving Labour to win the next election or two.
Maybe after a decade or so of weak government, national decline and ever-closer union, things might start looking up, but it's not necessarily so. Last time we entered a spiral of decline, it took the country about 15 years to finally accept the need to face reality, and even then we might not have got back on track had it not been for the helpful intervention of General Galtieri.
Sorry Richard but I don't take you every forecast as gospel, especially not this one. You just want a Conservative govt at all costs, and invent a laughable fiction of a weak Labour party with an unpopular leader and wafer thin majority dominating a generation of British politics if you don't get your own way
As many Kippers are either not ex Conservatives, or are ex Conservatives that left because of Cameron, you are unlikely to get far.
It well all be "most amusing" and illogical to you, but you will just have to wear that unless your party change its appraoch
Cameron is dancing to UKIPs tune already, so that blows your second line out of the water, and that was before we had any MPs
The amazing doublethink of Tories on here is something to behold
Ed Miliband is simultaenously weak, unpopular, unable to connect with voters & with enemies all over the party that want him out but able, if elected with a wafer thin margin, to oversee a strong government lasting a decade or more, that wont be influenced by outside forces and with no hope of ousting him
It was only a fortnight ago everyone seemed to think he wouldn't see the year out
Ed answers to Len and Len doesn't want a referendum - zero chance , nil , none .
Whatabouttery instead of arguing the feeble case for a referendum under Labour.
The amazing doublethink of Tories on here is something to behold
Ed Miliband is simultaenously weak, unpopular, unable to connect with voters & with enemies all over the party that want him out but able, if elected with a wafer thin margin, to oversee a strong government lasting a decade or more, that wont be influenced by outside forces and with no hope of ousting him
It was only a fortnight ago everyone seemed to think he wouldn't see the year out
Ed answers to Len and Len doesn't want a referendum - zero chance , nil , none .
Whatabouttery instead of arguing the feeble case for a referendum under Labour.
The amazing doublethink of Tories on here is something to behold
Ed Miliband is simultaenously weak, unpopular, unable to connect with voters & with enemies all over the party that want him out but able, if elected with a wafer thin margin, to oversee a strong government lasting a decade or more, that wont be influenced by outside forces and with no hope of ousting him
It was only a fortnight ago everyone seemed to think he wouldn't see the year out
Ed answers to Len and Len doesn't want a referendum - zero chance , nil , none .
Whatabouttery instead of arguing the feeble case for a referendum under Labour.
Sorry?
"Labour's biggest union backer Unite is urging the party to match the Conservatives' pledge to offer an in-out referendum on Europe.
General secretary Len McCluskey said Labour will be a "hostage to fortune" if it does not support a vote.
Labour leader Ed Miliband has all but ruled out a poll unless further powers are transferred to Brussels.
But Unite fears this stance will be a "millstone" around Labour's neck at the next general election."
Sorry Richard but I don't take you every forecast as gospel, especially not this one.
It was your forecast! I was just carrying your correct logic through to the reality of the likely parliamentary arithmetic, and the likely effect on the Conservative Party.
Comments
unless the Prime Minister said he would lead the Country out which was never going to happen
The bet should be if Cam wins a majority will there be a Uk wide referendum held on EU membership with the option of out on the table.
In that event Cameron could call an election, but would a party dare ignore a referendum result?
No, not that one - the other one....
Carswell will be swamped.
http://www.bexhillandbattleconservatives.com/parliamentary-candidate-may-2015
I am happy to vote for a decent PM in Cameron, a totally typical mainstream tory and not a shady dog whistling ting tong hating racist. You are the one who has to live with yourself, not me.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/541182/Ukip-debate-banned-University-East-Anglia-protests
The offer is a clear potential hostage to fortune on a Con minority or coalition Gov't. He'll implement it if he gets a majority but I'd have thought Evens on a Conservative GOV'T for the pledge to be offered would be a fair price (Void if other) - though not sure which side of the bet I'd like to be on.
The best chance of leaving the EU is if the tory party campaigned to leave. UKIP does not believe that they would under Cameron.
If you want to quit the EU, there is currently only one rational choice. Voting for UKIP.
The stronger UKIP becomes, the more likely we are to leave the EU. We are making progress.
"I’ve said very clearly that whatever the outcome of the next general election – and of course I want an overall majority and I’m hoping and believing I can win an overall majority – but people should be in no doubt that I will not become Prime Minster unless I can guarantee that we can hold that referendum."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/10822938/David-Cameron-gives-cast-iron-guarantee-over-EU-referendum.html
Too many student unions want them to be places of Marxist conformity.
It's insanity
Mark Pritchard - ''The speech was necessarily thoughtful and politically achievable. It also rightly balanced the needs of the UK economy whilst recognising public concerns over the speed and scale of some EU migration. The new benefit curbs are welcome and will act as a natural brake on those from the EU who may be temped to come to the UK as benefit tourists.''
(the above from The Spectator which others simply cherry picked the headline)
What Peter Bone needs to recognise is that I too will vote for a 'No', but the reality is that being in the EEA will make limited difference to immigration. Its being driven by other things, the EU just makes it 'easier'. It will make limited difference to EU single market regulations. It will make limited difference to EU payments. We will have to live with the EU and if outside it we will have no influence. And unless we vote tory ad infinitum then at some stage a Labour govt will take us closer to it again.
Comparisons between Ukip and the 1980s SDP are misleading. Ukip's voters are more loyal. My latest for @timesredbox http://www.thetimes.co.uk/redbox/topic/2015-election-campaign/ukip-supporters-have-strong-bond-with-party …"
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ
Both are totally counterproductive IMO. Amazing UKIP's opponents can't see that.
Carry on...
Arf
Cameron can still do it from a coalition - it would just need to be a red line in the coalition negotiations.
Give me strength.
But UKIP are quite happy to see Ed as Prime Minister. Which is just fecking bizarre in the extreme....
Would you would provide an explanation, if UKIP are so damned racist why myself (Italian), Sunil (Indian) and MikeK (Jewish) are supporters/members?
Why are so many UKIP candidates members of ethnic minorities?
http://www.thecommentator.com/article/5374/tooting_view_we_re_back_to_racism_smears_against_ukip
By the way, which ethnic minority are you a member of?
Under what circumstances would we have a referendum under Labour ?
You want a chance at out? Hold your nose and vote Dave. Otherwise you've got five years of Ed signing away things you won't like.
Under Labour YOU GET NO VOICE ON THE EU. You take it. Grasp your ankles, Britain, and assume the position.
When Ed joins the Euro (without a referendum) there will be a smirking Nigel Farage on the back of the 50 Euro note - with a scroll reading "Without whom none of this would have been possible".
I think there is a chance that Miliband may offer one if he continues to fall in the polls, but the main reason is not that Miliband will offer one at all but that a weak Labour minority would be so unpopular that there could be a vote of no confidence/snap GE a year or two in. Then a Tory BOO LOTO could campaign with UKIP to leave.
The new Labour leader could well be pro referendum, there are plenty in the party who are inc Len McCluske, Ed Balls, Jon Cruddas.
I understand you are a Conservative and want a Conservative PM at all costs but I am not and real change means getting rid of the men at the top For that to happen UKIP have to get as many votes as possible
Also, regardless, I wouldn't vote tactically, I would always vote for the party I want to win. Could never vote for Cameron, as I think he is insincere
http://dr-alun-wyburn-powell.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/the-seat-with-110000-voters-which-hasnt.html
If, as Cameron says, the key to immigration is 'control' that is the thing no EU member has, as Ukip will no doubt repeat all day
Ed Miliband is simultaenously weak, unpopular, unable to connect with voters & with enemies all over the party that want him out but able, if elected with a wafer thin margin, to oversee a strong government lasting a decade or more, that wont be influenced by outside forces and with no hope of ousting him
It was only a fortnight ago everyone seemed to think he wouldn't see the year out
UKIP are the ones with the racist hate filled scare mongering dog whistles.
Immigration is fact in or out of the EU but lets ignore that, what counts is the ambition of the delusional kipper leadership.
Only the other day you and other kippers were berating a labour MP for allegedly sneering at her own (WWC) supporters. You think St Nigel is so pure - pure enough to ally with a Polish neo nazi. Facts dictate the truith about UKIP.
UKIP are racist they peddle racist language all the time (Farage was notorious about Romanians next door wink wink nudge nudge) they are pushing it way beyond what they thought they could get away with.
Just because you are daft sad and pathetic does not make me wrong.
The prominent bettors on here seem to think NOM is the value bet, even at 1.5 (1/2).. if they are right then there is very little chance of either Ed or Dave getting a majority, and it is very likely we will have a weak government that will have to dance to the tune of smaller parties.
Why on earth would UKIP want anything else?
Whatabouttery instead of arguing the feeble case for a referendum under Labour.
Quite how that is supposed to help UKIP is a complete mystery.
In practice what would happen in that scenario is that the Conservatives would be split and weak, leaving Labour to win the next election or two.
Maybe after a decade or so of weak government, national decline and ever-closer union, things might start looking up, but it's not necessarily so. Last time we entered a spiral of decline, it took the country about 15 years to finally accept the need to face reality, and even then we might not have got back on track had it not been for the helpful intervention of General Galtieri.
As many Kippers are either not ex Conservatives, or are ex Conservatives that left because of Cameron, you are unlikely to get far.
It well all be "most amusing" and illogical to you, but you will just have to wear that unless your party change its appraoch
Cameron is dancing to UKIPs tune already, so that blows your second line out of the water, and that was before we had any MPs
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jul/02/miliband-pressure-match-tories-eu-referendum-pledge
"Labour's biggest union backer Unite is urging the party to match the Conservatives' pledge to offer an in-out referendum on Europe.
General secretary Len McCluskey said Labour will be a "hostage to fortune" if it does not support a vote.
Labour leader Ed Miliband has all but ruled out a poll unless further powers are transferred to Brussels.
But Unite fears this stance will be a "millstone" around Labour's neck at the next general election."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28125622