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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » There are signs that Farage could be having second thoughts

SystemSystem Posts: 12,143
edited November 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » There are signs that Farage could be having second thoughts about standing in Thanet S

At the PB party a week ago I was somewhat surprised at being told by at least two kippers that it wasn’t entirely certain that Nigel Farage was going to stand in the Thanet South constituency on May 7th. I, and apparently most punters, thought that this was a certainty following his selection that was widely reported in August.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,439
    Always said Kippers are yellow bellies.

    Scared of the referendum now this.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Good insight OGH.

    Surprising reaction from anti-Cameron Andrew Pierce @toryboypierce
    "Great speech by Cameron but think exiting EU is the only way he can deliver it"
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Faisal Islam @faisalislam · 5m 5 minutes ago
    ... First piece of evidence: Juncker and EC reaction Cameron "shd be listened to with no drama"

    Faisal Islam @faisalislam · 4m 4 minutes ago
    Second: Germans had even harsher restriction on eg learning German: benefits cut if you don't try to learn within 6 months

    Faisal Islam @faisalislam · 2m 2 minutes ago
    Third: the EC/ individuals always taking member nations to the ECJ over this stuff so boundaries can be pushed

    Cameron isn't making a big stand. He's doing the minute stuff that the EU will allow him to do. It's quite simple. A few months back his office leaked two options:

    (1) The strong option: a points system

    (2) The weak option: an emergency brake

    Cameron's now doing for a weaker option than the weak option. He's feeble and weak.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Perhaps he fancies Clacton ? Bye election in June ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,439
    Nigel could stand in Doncaster North.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    FPT: An interesting blog post (pointed by the Guardian) on which of Cameron's proposals would need (or at least might need) treaty amendment:

    http://eulawanalysis.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/the-nine-labours-of-cameron-analysis-of.html
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,306
    edited November 2014
    FPT:
    FalseFlag said:



    Basically echoing Snowden then, won't find that needle if they keep on piling on the hay.

    The real story is that the killer of Lee Rigby was well known to the intelligence services, and may even have worked for them at one time. You don't need facebook metadata for that. Just basic competence. This furore about facebook is just self-serving obfuscation. We saw exactly the same thing with the crackdown on BBM messaging after the London riots, when the real issue was the failure of the police to intervene rather than watching London burn. Covering up failures by demanding more powers -it's a chapter from the EU manual of bureaucratic accountability.

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    He was feigning interest in a random Thanet pharmacy on Twitter today. Weird thing to do unless he's running.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Farage in South Thanet today:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B3h4UzbIIAEh9hZ.jpg
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,645
    Todays Populus Ed is Crap is Landslide PM

    LAB 354 CON 249 LD 21 EICILPM
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    FPT:

    FalseFlag said:



    Basically echoing Snowden then, won't find that needle if they keep on piling on the hay.

    The real story is that the killer of Lee Rigby was well known to the intelligence services, and may even have worked for them at one time. You don't need facebook metadata for that. Just basic competence. This furore about facebook is just self-serving obfuscation. We saw exactly the same thing with the crackdown on BBM messaging after the London riots, when the real issue was the failure of the police to intervene rather than watching London burn. Covering up failures by demanding more powers -it's a chapter from the EU manual of bureaucratic accountability.

    At one point in the comedy of errors in the investigation, the security services didn't manage to check out his house because they weren't communicated the number and it was "a very long road".
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Socrates said:

    Farage in South Thanet today:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B3h4UzbIIAEh9hZ.jpg

    Signs that OGH doesn't follow Farage on Twitter !
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,058
    He'd better bloody stand.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    I heard off some bloke in a pub last week that someone might do something or they might not

    Worth a thread?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Socrates said:

    Cameron isn't making a big stand. He's doing the minute stuff that the EU will allow him to do.

    He'd attempting to do the maximum which might realistically be achieved given the exceptionally difficult starting point he inherited. Good. That is exactly the right thing to do. Sure, he could make a 'big stand' and spout off a load of populist nonsense, but this is a serious party of government, not a protest group.

    And if people don't think it's enough, they can vote to leave the EU. You really do have to be terminally prejudiced against Cameron to quibble with that.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nigel could stand in Doncaster North.

    That's the decision I think: Thanet or Doncaster. It might have been Boston&Skegness but they've just selected.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Socrates said:

    Farage in South Thanet today:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B3h4UzbIIAEh9hZ.jpg

    You mean after the Laura Sandys Tweets and the Ashcroft poll.

  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Socrates said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    FPT:

    FalseFlag said:



    Basically echoing Snowden then, won't find that needle if they keep on piling on the hay.

    The real story is that the killer of Lee Rigby was well known to the intelligence services, and may even have worked for them at one time. You don't need facebook metadata for that. Just basic competence. This furore about facebook is just self-serving obfuscation. We saw exactly the same thing with the crackdown on BBM messaging after the London riots, when the real issue was the failure of the police to intervene rather than watching London burn. Covering up failures by demanding more powers -it's a chapter from the EU manual of bureaucratic accountability.

    At one point in the comedy of errors in the investigation, the security services didn't manage to check out his house because they weren't communicated the number and it was "a very long road".
    I was slightly surprised that they claim to be able to only maintain proper surveillance on 50 subjects. Does seem like many when there are supposedly 2000 UK jihadists due to come back from Syria in due course.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Nigel Farage (@Nigel_Farage)
    28/11/2014 11:46
    Thanks to Baypoint for hosting the Thanet and East Kent Chamber business debate this morning pic.twitter.com/4EQMdlhm7j
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,058
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Thanet_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

    Thanet South is hardly a lost cause for UKIP - they are still favourites there.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    MikeSmithson said:

    Socrates said:

    Farage in South Thanet today:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B3h4UzbIIAEh9hZ.jpg

    You mean after the Laura Sandys Tweets and the Ashcroft poll.

    I imagine he pulled the meeting with the Chamber of Commerce out of thin air last night after reading the poll...

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B3hrASHCQAEl1nV.jpg
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Why is Laura Sandys 'desperatelyseeking Nigel'???
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    Mr Eagles,

    "Always said Kippers are yellow bellies."

    Not technically correct; there are many in Lincolnshire (especially Boston), but not all Kippers are from Lincolnshire. So hyperbole, (or should that be hyperbile).

    From wiki ... "A yellowbelly (or yeller belly) is a person from Lincolnshire, England."
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    "A ComRes poll for ITV indicates the majority of Britons do not see what benefits the UK gets from European Union membership.
    The survey, taken before Mr Cameron's speech on Europe this morning, found 53% of the public do not see a plus side to EU membership.
    Given the choice tomorrow on EU membership, 48% of people would vote to leave, while 32% would rather stay in, with the remainder undecided."

    http://www.itv.com/news/story/2014-11-28/pm-announces-tougher-measures-for-eu-migrant-benefits/
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    Indigo said:

    Socrates said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    FPT:

    FalseFlag said:



    Basically echoing Snowden then, won't find that needle if they keep on piling on the hay.

    The real story is that the killer of Lee Rigby was well known to the intelligence services, and may even have worked for them at one time. You don't need facebook metadata for that. Just basic competence. This furore about facebook is just self-serving obfuscation. We saw exactly the same thing with the crackdown on BBM messaging after the London riots, when the real issue was the failure of the police to intervene rather than watching London burn. Covering up failures by demanding more powers -it's a chapter from the EU manual of bureaucratic accountability.

    At one point in the comedy of errors in the investigation, the security services didn't manage to check out his house because they weren't communicated the number and it was "a very long road".
    I was slightly surprised that they claim to be able to only maintain proper surveillance on 50 subjects. Does seem like many when there are supposedly 2000 UK jihadists due to come back from Syria in due course.
    All the funding is going on data collection.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Bottler Forage? Probably got windy at the thought of Expenses not Allowances, and having to do some local constituency work.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,712
    Desperately Seeking Sunil :)
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,306
    Cameron is not a bad person per se, and I think he quite likes Britain. The thing is, he just knows where the land lies. And where the land lies is that the US is boss, then Brussels, then Jeremy Heywood, then friends and family, then political expediency (though this matters surprisingly little -Cameron seems far more afraid of a cross conference call with Joe Biden than the outrage of the British populace), and so on and so forth. He's not a conviction politician like Maggie, he's not there to change the way of the world, just to be successful within it. This is why his approach is almost totally limited to speeches (which he does very well).

    The trouble with this approach is that it is fast driving Britain into the ground, and people are noticing. And that the power structure that Cameron adheres to is itself under threat, from the BRICS nations internationally, and from parties of protest within the UK and Europe. The rules are changing, and the old way will be swept aside, and Cameron with them.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Indigo said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Socrates said:

    Farage in South Thanet today:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B3h4UzbIIAEh9hZ.jpg

    You mean after the Laura Sandys Tweets and the Ashcroft poll.

    I imagine he pulled the meeting with the Chamber of Commerce out of thin air last night after reading the poll...

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B3hrASHCQAEl1nV.jpg
    But this is only happening AFTER yesterday's developments. He's frit.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited November 2014
    isam said:

    Nigel Farage (@Nigel_Farage)
    28/11/2014 11:46
    Thanks to Baypoint for hosting the Thanet and East Kent Chamber business debate this morning pic.twitter.com/4EQMdlhm7j

    This meeting hastily arranged on the back of a tweet by Laura Sandys no doubt
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Socrates said:

    Farage in South Thanet today:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B3h4UzbIIAEh9hZ.jpg

    Was he handing over a 'Notice to Leave'?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,058
    I think...

    And am betting as follows for THanet South:

    Farage will stand there.
    I would make him perhaps 10-11 to take the seat.
    I am ruling out Labour there.
    The Tories have been ahead in two of the constituency polls, they were value at an extraordinary 9-2.

    If UKIP moves out to 10-11 I'll try and get £50 on or some such.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,292
    Never wise to take the voters in a constituency for granted as a candidate, even if you are a party Leader. When Salmond stood for his Holyrood seat he was already a long time and very high profile local presence in that part of the North East as the local Westminster MP for Banff and Buchan. And its not surprising that even now, the rumours are that Salmon might run for Westminster in the neighbouring constituency of Gordon at the next GE.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,727
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nigel could stand in Doncaster North.

    Although I think Ed may be in serious trouble in Doncaster I'm pretty sure it'd be unwise for Farage to stand directly against him. He would risk being seen as trying to put himself forwards as more prime-ministerial than Ed. He may or may not be that, but it seems an unnecessary battlefront.

    Thanet South seems a sensible choice.


    I was hoping that someone might have twisted BetFair's arm today and that we might see the "Which Party will be 3rd" market that was suggested last night. I can certainly see myself wanting to back UKIP at decent odds there.

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Nigel Farage (@Nigel_Farage)
    28/11/2014 11:46
    Thanks to Baypoint for hosting the Thanet and East Kent Chamber business debate this morning pic.twitter.com/4EQMdlhm7j

    This meeting hastily arranged on the back of a tweet by Laura Sandy no doubt
    Come on. Most probably. Frit.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,712
    With the latest Populus, looks like there won't be any crossover in ELBOW this weekend!
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    MikeSmithson said:

    Indigo said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Socrates said:

    Farage in South Thanet today:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B3h4UzbIIAEh9hZ.jpg

    You mean after the Laura Sandys Tweets and the Ashcroft poll.

    I imagine he pulled the meeting with the Chamber of Commerce out of thin air last night after reading the poll...

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B3hrASHCQAEl1nV.jpg
    But this is only happening AFTER yesterday's developments. He's frit.

    Big lead for out in the latest eu poll mike... No thread?
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    TheWatcher said:

    Bottler Forage? Probably got windy at the thought of Expenses not Allowances, and having to do some local constituency work.

    I know a few people here (not least OGH) detest UKIP and Farage, but lets be just a tiny bit realistic about it, if Farage is at a meeting of local business leaders in the constituency, its quite likely its been in their diaries for a couple of weeks at least. Suggesting he pulling the trip out of the hat at the last minute because of a poll or his expenses does sounds a touch strained.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Omnium said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nigel could stand in Doncaster North.

    Although I think Ed may be in serious trouble in Doncaster I'm pretty sure it'd be unwise for Farage to stand directly against him. He would risk being seen as trying to put himself forwards as more prime-ministerial than Ed. He may or may not be that, but it seems an unnecessary battlefront.

    Thanet South seems a sensible choice.


    I was hoping that someone might have twisted BetFair's arm today and that we might see the "Which Party will be 3rd" market that was suggested last night. I can certainly see myself wanting to back UKIP at decent odds there.

    Third in GB votes or in overall seats?

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited November 2014
    Indigo said:

    TheWatcher said:

    Bottler Forage? Probably got windy at the thought of Expenses not Allowances, and having to do some local constituency work.

    I know a few people here (not least OGH) detest UKIP and Farage, but lets be just a tiny bit realistic about it, if Farage is at a meeting of local business leaders in the constituency, its quite likely its been in their diaries for a couple of weeks at least. Suggesting he pulling the trip out of the hat at the last minute because of a poll or his expenses does sounds a touch strained.
    Looks like this thread header was as well thought through as the one where mike claimed Ukip had the wrong date for the euro elections in their advert only to realise he was looking at last years ad

    Down the memory hole?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,712
    isam said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Indigo said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Socrates said:

    Farage in South Thanet today:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B3h4UzbIIAEh9hZ.jpg

    You mean after the Laura Sandys Tweets and the Ashcroft poll.

    I imagine he pulled the meeting with the Chamber of Commerce out of thin air last night after reading the poll...

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B3hrASHCQAEl1nV.jpg
    But this is only happening AFTER yesterday's developments. He's frit.

    Big lead for out in the latest eu poll mike... No thread?
    Must be an outlier, sam, it must be :)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,058
    MikeSmithson said:

    Omnium said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nigel could stand in Doncaster North.

    Although I think Ed may be in serious trouble in Doncaster I'm pretty sure it'd be unwise for Farage to stand directly against him. He would risk being seen as trying to put himself forwards as more prime-ministerial than Ed. He may or may not be that, but it seems an unnecessary battlefront.

    Thanet South seems a sensible choice.


    I was hoping that someone might have twisted BetFair's arm today and that we might see the "Which Party will be 3rd" market that was suggested last night. I can certainly see myself wanting to back UKIP at decent odds there.

    Third in GB votes or in overall seats?

    I'd want bloody good odds on the latter.

    Former is perhaps 2-9 ?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Indigo said:

    TheWatcher said:

    Bottler Forage? Probably got windy at the thought of Expenses not Allowances, and having to do some local constituency work.

    I know a few people here (not least OGH) detest UKIP and Farage, but lets be just a tiny bit realistic about it, if Farage is at a meeting of local business leaders in the constituency, its quite likely its been in their diaries for a couple of weeks at least. Suggesting he pulling the trip out of the hat at the last minute because of a poll or his expenses does sounds a touch strained.
    Naive my friend. Politicos can get moving very fast if they fear they might be in trouble.

    Even so to have gone for so long not visiting the seat shows an arrogance and naivety. Remember this is the guy who though the best place for him on GE10 election day was in a plane flying above.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    @isam 48% to 32% is a huge lead for the out camp. And that was BEFORE Cameron has said he isn't going to limit EU immigration.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,712
    When was the last time the LibDems were third place in a GB opinion poll?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,280
    In response to Mr Llama (FPT) who posted this:-

    "Lots? Really? I should have thought that since about the 12th century there have been very few English Monarchs who thought they could do as they liked and govern without the consent of the people. Only three names spring to mind - Edward II, Richard II and Charles I all of whom came to sticky ends. I suppose, at a stretch, you could add the usurper Henry IV to the list and personal prejudice would see Bloody Mary included. So hardly lots, who else did you have in mind?"

    How about King John and Magna Carta? Edward 1 had to accommodate his barons when he tried excessive taxation. Henry II got into a bit of trouble too.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,306
    edited November 2014
    isam said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Indigo said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Socrates said:

    Farage in South Thanet today:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B3h4UzbIIAEh9hZ.jpg

    You mean after the Laura Sandys Tweets and the Ashcroft poll.

    I imagine he pulled the meeting with the Chamber of Commerce out of thin air last night after reading the poll...

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B3hrASHCQAEl1nV.jpg
    But this is only happening AFTER yesterday's developments. He's frit.

    Big lead for out in the latest eu poll mike... No thread?
    Breaking:

    Vote bonanza expected for 'party of in' as EU poll reveals EU slightly more popular than bubonic plague, though slips slightly against Kim jong un.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,240

    At least there's no more discussion about how voters will rally to whichever of the Conservatives or Labour can best defeat UKIP. Clacton, Heywood & Middleton, and Rochester have surely shot that theory to pieces.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,439
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    When was the last time the LibDems were third place in a GB opinion poll?

    September with the Guardian/ICM poll
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Daniel Hannan @DanHannanMEP · 3h 3 hours ago
    Not true that the PM is demanding the impossible. The only thing that requires an IGC is restricting free movement from future EU members.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    isam said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Indigo said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Socrates said:

    Farage in South Thanet today:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B3h4UzbIIAEh9hZ.jpg

    You mean after the Laura Sandys Tweets and the Ashcroft poll.

    I imagine he pulled the meeting with the Chamber of Commerce out of thin air last night after reading the poll...

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B3hrASHCQAEl1nV.jpg
    But this is only happening AFTER yesterday's developments. He's frit.

    Big lead for out in the latest eu poll mike... No thread?
    Must be an outlier, sam, it must be :)
    The outlier that showed a huge lead for in got a thread

    I suppose the other 7 polls recently that showed a lead for out passed mike by

    But 48-32 out is super
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,630
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nigel could stand in Doncaster North.

    That would be fantastic and a total no lose for him. It would electrify the election.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    MikeSmithson said:

    Indigo said:

    TheWatcher said:

    Bottler Forage? Probably got windy at the thought of Expenses not Allowances, and having to do some local constituency work.

    I know a few people here (not least OGH) detest UKIP and Farage, but lets be just a tiny bit realistic about it, if Farage is at a meeting of local business leaders in the constituency, its quite likely its been in their diaries for a couple of weeks at least. Suggesting he pulling the trip out of the hat at the last minute because of a poll or his expenses does sounds a touch strained.
    Naive my friend. Politicos can get moving very fast if they fear they might be in trouble.

    Even so to have gone for so long not visiting the seat shows an arrogance and naivety. Remember this is the guy who though the best place for him on GE10 election day was in a plane flying above.
    So what you are saying is that Nige's PA phoned around 20-30 local business leaders and asked them at no notice to cancel whatever meetings or business trips they had and come to talk to him for a couple of hours, and they all meekly went along with it - he must have one hell of a personal following amongst business executives to pull that off, dont tell the Tories!

    As I recall he was in a plane towing a banner that said "Vote UKIP", doesn't seem that bad as a GTVO idea.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Sean_F said:


    At least there's no more discussion about how voters will rally to whichever of the Conservatives or Labour can best defeat UKIP. Clacton, Heywood & Middleton, and Rochester have surely shot that theory to pieces.

    Well you would have thought so
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    MikeSmithson said:

    Indigo said:

    TheWatcher said:

    Bottler Forage? Probably got windy at the thought of Expenses not Allowances, and having to do some local constituency work.

    I know a few people here (not least OGH) detest UKIP and Farage, but lets be just a tiny bit realistic about it, if Farage is at a meeting of local business leaders in the constituency, its quite likely its been in their diaries for a couple of weeks at least. Suggesting he pulling the trip out of the hat at the last minute because of a poll or his expenses does sounds a touch strained.
    Naive my friend. Politicos can get moving very fast if they fear they might be in trouble.

    Even so to have gone for so long not visiting the seat shows an arrogance and naivety. Remember this is the guy who though the best place for him on GE10 election day was in a plane flying above.
    And that stupid stunt ended well didn't it.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,831
    Socrates said:

    @isam 48% to 32% is a huge lead for the out camp. And that was BEFORE Cameron has said he isn't going to limit EU immigration.

    WILL YOU LOT EVER TAKE YES FOR AN ANSWER?????

    Ahem.

    Out leads. Fantastic! That means that a Cons govt will deliver a referendum which will deliver an OUT vote.

    Get campaigning/leafleting/perhaps you could do some tele-canvassing - get in touch with CCHQ, they will guide you.

    I mean you lot want out of the EU don't you?? You don't give a tinker's cuss one way or another about working tax credits or the internal market or widening the A14. It's all about Europe and Cam's perfect storm has arrived. We as a nation would prefer to be out.

    But no.

    You want to go and not have that referendum and not get us out of here because in 2035 you think you might have a shot at holding the balance of power.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,058
    isam said:

    Sean_F said:


    At least there's no more discussion about how voters will rally to whichever of the Conservatives or Labour can best defeat UKIP. Clacton, Heywood & Middleton, and Rochester have surely shot that theory to pieces.

    Well you would have thought so
    The Labour vote seems to split off both anti-UKIP and anti-Con.

    Tactical voting gets you... so far but its a problem when it turns what should have been a three horse race in Rochester and Strood into a 2 runner affair.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,842
    Afternoon all :)

    Is it that important that Nigel Farage stands anywhere ? His value to the brand comes in being seen here, there and everywhere supporting his candidates and their ground campaign and appearing on tv and radio.

    I don't know the UKIP Constitution but clearly the Party Leader doesn't have to be an MP so does it matter ? Farage can still take part in any "Coalition talks" (if there are any) albeit as indirectly as Cameron and Clegg did in 2010.

    Populus once again pushing up the duopoly but Labour will be far happier with 37% than the Conservatives will with 32%.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Whether or not the meeting was arranged at the last minute, not visiting the constituency for three months does display the challenges of occupying high party office and winning or retaining a seat. Ask Chris Patten.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    So....
    General Nigel Melchet-Farage is quite happy to sit back issuing commands from way behind the lines just simply so he can move his whiskey cabinet a few feet further away from Brussels?

    M'Kay
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    TOPPING said:

    Socrates said:

    @isam 48% to 32% is a huge lead for the out camp. And that was BEFORE Cameron has said he isn't going to limit EU immigration.

    WILL YOU LOT EVER TAKE YES FOR AN ANSWER?????

    Ahem.

    Out leads. Fantastic! That means that a Cons govt will deliver a referendum which will deliver an OUT vote.

    Get campaigning/leafleting/perhaps you could do some tele-canvassing - get in touch with CCHQ, they will guide you.

    I mean you lot want out of the EU don't you?? You don't give a tinker's cuss one way or another about working tax credits or the internal market or widening the A14. It's all about Europe and Cam's perfect storm has arrived. We as a nation would prefer to be out.

    But no.

    You want to go and not have that referendum and not get us out of here because in 2035 you think you might have a shot at holding the balance of power.
    I'm doing my bit don't worry
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    TOPPING said:

    Socrates said:

    @isam 48% to 32% is a huge lead for the out camp. And that was BEFORE Cameron has said he isn't going to limit EU immigration.

    WILL YOU LOT EVER TAKE YES FOR AN ANSWER?????

    Ahem.

    Out leads. Fantastic! That means that a Cons govt will deliver a referendum which will deliver an OUT vote.

    Get campaigning/leafleting/perhaps you could do some tele-canvassing - get in touch with CCHQ, they will guide you.

    I mean you lot want out of the EU don't you?? You don't give a tinker's cuss one way or another about working tax credits or the internal market or widening the A14. It's all about Europe and Cam's perfect storm has arrived. We as a nation would prefer to be out.

    But no.

    You want to go and not have that referendum and not get us out of here because in 2035 you think you might have a shot at holding the balance of power.
    You still believe David "no ifs, no buts" Cameron means what he says when makes pledges? Bless.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Indigo said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Indigo said:

    TheWatcher said:

    Bottler Forage? Probably got windy at the thought of Expenses not Allowances, and having to do some local constituency work.

    I know a few people here (not least OGH) detest UKIP and Farage, but lets be just a tiny bit realistic about it, if Farage is at a meeting of local business leaders in the constituency, its quite likely its been in their diaries for a couple of weeks at least. Suggesting he pulling the trip out of the hat at the last minute because of a poll or his expenses does sounds a touch strained.
    Naive my friend. Politicos can get moving very fast if they fear they might be in trouble.

    Even so to have gone for so long not visiting the seat shows an arrogance and naivety. Remember this is the guy who though the best place for him on GE10 election day was in a plane flying above.
    So what you are saying is that Nige's PA phoned around 20-30 local business leaders and asked them at no notice to cancel whatever meetings or business trips they had and come to talk to him for a couple of hours, and they all meekly went along with it - he must have one hell of a personal following amongst business executives to pull that off, dont tell the Tories!

    As I recall he was in a plane towing a banner that said "Vote UKIP", doesn't seem that bad as a GTVO idea.
    You get pilot to fly plane and candidate on the ground being seen by voters.

    The timing is odd. Suddenly a Thanet S poll comes out with NF behind. Current MPs Tweets about him not being seen there for 3 months. And then he visits.



  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,058
    stodge said:



    Is it that important that Nigel Farage stands anywhere ?

    Yes. PBers have cash on this.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,439
    SouthamObserver said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nigel could stand in Doncaster North.

    That would be fantastic and a total no lose for him. It would electrify the election.
    Or maybe for sheer comedy in Sheffield Hallam.

    If Farage had any courage he'd stand in Witney.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    TOPPING said:

    Socrates said:

    @isam 48% to 32% is a huge lead for the out camp. And that was BEFORE Cameron has said he isn't going to limit EU immigration.

    WILL YOU LOT EVER TAKE YES FOR AN ANSWER?????

    Ahem.

    Out leads. Fantastic! That means that a Cons govt will deliver a referendum which will deliver an OUT vote.

    Get campaigning/leafleting/perhaps you could do some tele-canvassing - get in touch with CCHQ, they will guide you.

    I mean you lot want out of the EU don't you?? You don't give a tinker's cuss one way or another about working tax credits or the internal market or widening the A14. It's all about Europe and Cam's perfect storm has arrived. We as a nation would prefer to be out.

    But no.

    You want to go and not have that referendum and not get us out of here because in 2035 you think you might have a shot at holding the balance of power.
    Do you think Cameron would have got anywhere near saying what he did, or come to that would have promised a referendum if UKIP wasn't breathing down his neck ? You might want to review this to remind yourself of how his views on the EU have changed as the threat became more obvious.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/11259224/David-Cameron-The-journey-from-immigration-dove-to-immigration-hawk.html
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JohnRentoul: I've run @YvetteCooperMP's response to PM's speech through Google Translate and it says: "We agree." http://t.co/73Pb8f3Osd
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Pulpstar said:

    stodge said:



    Is it that important that Nigel Farage stands anywhere ?

    Yes. PBers have cash on this.
    Indeed I have a financial interest as well.

  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    how childish... snigger

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/steerpike/2014/11/tories-give-mark-reckless-worst-office-in-parliament-2/
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,712
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    When was the last time the LibDems were third place in a GB opinion poll?

    September with the Guardian/ICM poll
    Oooops I remember now. 10% vs. 9%.

    Still, that was over two months ago.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,712
    Moses_ said:

    So....
    General Nigel Melchet-Farage is quite happy to sit back issuing commands from way behind the lines just simply so he can move his whiskey cabinet a few feet further away from Brussels?

    M'Kay

    Thanet is almost as close to Brussels as Dover :)
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Pulpstar said:

    stodge said:



    Is it that important that Nigel Farage stands anywhere ?

    Yes. PBers have cash on this.
    So do i thanks to you!!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    isam said:


    Given the choice tomorrow on EU membership, 48% of people would vote to leave, while 32% would rather stay in, with the remainder undecided."

    Yet still the Kippers will do anything to avoid a referendum - it's perverse.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,058
    SouthamObserver said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nigel could stand in Doncaster North.

    That would be fantastic and a total no lose for him. It would electrify the election.
    No lose ?

    Of course he'd bloody lose. Do you think UKIP will be sticking up ex city Kent bankers in their northern targets ?!

    It is one thing UKIP are doing right - getting someone with links to the area as candidates in general.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,683
    Cyclefree said:

    In response to Mr Llama (FPT) who posted this:-

    "Lots? Really? I should have thought that since about the 12th century there have been very few English Monarchs who thought they could do as they liked and govern without the consent of the people. Only three names spring to mind - Edward II, Richard II and Charles I all of whom came to sticky ends. I suppose, at a stretch, you could add the usurper Henry IV to the list and personal prejudice would see Bloody Mary included. So hardly lots, who else did you have in mind?"

    How about King John and Magna Carta? Edward 1 had to accommodate his barons when he tried excessive taxation. Henry II got into a bit of trouble too.

    Charles I surely wasn't an English monarch in either sense (and it was the Scots who started the Civil Wars, remember).



  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,727
    MikeSmithson said:

    Omnium said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nigel could stand in Doncaster North.

    Although I think Ed may be in serious trouble in Doncaster I'm pretty sure it'd be unwise for Farage to stand directly against him. He would risk being seen as trying to put himself forwards as more prime-ministerial than Ed. He may or may not be that, but it seems an unnecessary battlefront.

    Thanet South seems a sensible choice.


    I was hoping that someone might have twisted BetFair's arm today and that we might see the "Which Party will be 3rd" market that was suggested last night. I can certainly see myself wanting to back UKIP at decent odds there.

    Third in GB votes or in overall seats?

    I think last nights suggestion was in seats

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Socrates said:

    TOPPING said:

    Socrates said:

    @isam 48% to 32% is a huge lead for the out camp. And that was BEFORE Cameron has said he isn't going to limit EU immigration.

    WILL YOU LOT EVER TAKE YES FOR AN ANSWER?????

    Ahem.

    Out leads. Fantastic! That means that a Cons govt will deliver a referendum which will deliver an OUT vote.

    Get campaigning/leafleting/perhaps you could do some tele-canvassing - get in touch with CCHQ, they will guide you.

    I mean you lot want out of the EU don't you?? You don't give a tinker's cuss one way or another about working tax credits or the internal market or widening the A14. It's all about Europe and Cam's perfect storm has arrived. We as a nation would prefer to be out.

    But no.

    You want to go and not have that referendum and not get us out of here because in 2035 you think you might have a shot at holding the balance of power.
    You still believe David "no ifs, no buts" Cameron means what he says when makes pledges? Bless.
    Who can forget him reneging on the Sindy ref pledge - oh wait.
  • shadsyshadsy Posts: 289
    There's some live coverage of the Midlothian council byelection here
    http://www.midlothianadvertiser.co.uk/news/local-news/live-midlothian-east-by-election-1-3619025

    Labour ahead at the moment but, without knowing anything at all about the area or candidates, I'd guess the SNP might end up winning. Either way, it looks like a mildly encouraging result for Labour.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,439
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    how childish... snigger

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/steerpike/2014/11/tories-give-mark-reckless-worst-office-in-parliament-2/

    Absolutely childish and pathetic.

    Honest. I'm not laughing.

    Should have given him a kennel.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    The yellow belly is David Cameron. He's scared of standing up to Angela Merkel, his boss.

    "Frau Merkel, can we have a points system?"
    "No, David."
    "Frau Merkel, can we have a cap on EU immigration?"
    "No, David."
    "Frau Merkel, can we have an emergency brake on EU immigration, that comes in sometimes?"
    "No, David."
    "Frau Merkel, can we limit some benefits for a few years to EU immigrants?"
    "Umm, sure, we've been doing it for years."
    "I'm going to DEMAND we limit benefits to EU immigrants"
    "Yes, dear."
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,439
    Socrates said:

    The yellow belly is David Cameron. He's scared of standing up to Angela Merkel, his boss.

    "Frau Merkel, can we have a points system?"
    "No, David."
    "Frau Merkel, can we have a cap on EU immigration?"
    "No, David."
    "Frau Merkel, can we have an emergency brake on EU immigration, that comes in sometimes?"
    "No, David."
    "Frau Merkel, can we limit some benefits for a few years to EU immigrants?"
    "Umm, sure, we've been doing it for years."
    "I'm going to DEMAND we limit benefits to EU immigrants"
    "Yes, dear."

    If only he'd give you a referendum to register your dissatisfaction

    Oh wait.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,908
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    how childish... snigger

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/steerpike/2014/11/tories-give-mark-reckless-worst-office-in-parliament-2/

    Never mind he won't have to put up with in for long, maybe the new MP for Doncaster N or Thanet S could get it.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    TGOHF said:

    Socrates said:

    TOPPING said:

    Socrates said:

    @isam 48% to 32% is a huge lead for the out camp. And that was BEFORE Cameron has said he isn't going to limit EU immigration.

    WILL YOU LOT EVER TAKE YES FOR AN ANSWER?????

    Ahem.

    Out leads. Fantastic! That means that a Cons govt will deliver a referendum which will deliver an OUT vote.

    Get campaigning/leafleting/perhaps you could do some tele-canvassing - get in touch with CCHQ, they will guide you.

    I mean you lot want out of the EU don't you?? You don't give a tinker's cuss one way or another about working tax credits or the internal market or widening the A14. It's all about Europe and Cam's perfect storm has arrived. We as a nation would prefer to be out.

    But no.

    You want to go and not have that referendum and not get us out of here because in 2035 you think you might have a shot at holding the balance of power.
    You still believe David "no ifs, no buts" Cameron means what he says when makes pledges? Bless.
    Who can forget him reneging on the Sindy ref pledge - oh wait.
    Was that before or after he capped the EU budget, or blocked the fiscal pact, or didn't hand over any significant powers, or didn't pay the EU shakedown? I forget.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    logical_song said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    how childish... snigger

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/steerpike/2014/11/tories-give-mark-reckless-worst-office-in-parliament-2/

    Never mind he won't have to put up with in for long, maybe the new MP for Doncaster N or Thanet S could get it.
    No point unpacking.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    MikeSmithson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    stodge said:



    Is it that important that Nigel Farage stands anywhere ?

    Yes. PBers have cash on this.
    Indeed I have a financial interest as well.

    You on Folkestone mike? Want to buy my 2/1 South Thanet bet off me? Or should I just throw the ticket in the bin?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    I like this UKIP story.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/nov/27/-sp-ukip-mistakes-westminster-cathedral-for-mosque
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Cyclefree said:

    In response to Mr Llama (FPT) who posted this:-

    "Lots? Really? I should have thought that since about the 12th century there have been very few English Monarchs who thought they could do as they liked and govern without the consent of the people. Only three names spring to mind - Edward II, Richard II and Charles I all of whom came to sticky ends. I suppose, at a stretch, you could add the usurper Henry IV to the list and personal prejudice would see Bloody Mary included. So hardly lots, who else did you have in mind?"

    How about King John and Magna Carta? Edward 1 had to accommodate his barons when he tried excessive taxation. Henry II got into a bit of trouble too.

    Be fair Mrs Free I did say since about the 12th century and Edward I did have to accommodate his people. He couldn't do as he wanted, knew that and acted accordingly; he was after all the monarch who founded Parliament as a permanent law making and tax raising institution.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    MikeSmithson said:

    I like this UKIP story.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/nov/27/-sp-ukip-mistakes-westminster-cathedral-for-mosque

    God, you're spinning endless anti-UKIP today, desperately trying to avoid the pro-UKIP narrative of today's news.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,306
    Countries trying to get Gold back from the US like Germany did a while back -good luck with that: http://rt.com/business/209591-gold-europe-gold-repatriation/

    Does anyone know how much they're 'looking after' on our behalf?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,831
    edited November 2014
    Indigo said:

    TOPPING said:

    Socrates said:

    @isam 48% to 32% is a huge lead for the out camp. And that was BEFORE Cameron has said he isn't going to limit EU immigration.

    WILL YOU LOT EVER TAKE YES FOR AN ANSWER?????

    Ahem.

    Out leads. Fantastic! That means that a Cons govt will deliver a referendum which will deliver an OUT vote.

    Get campaigning/leafleting/perhaps you could do some tele-canvassing - get in touch with CCHQ, they will guide you.

    I mean you lot want out of the EU don't you?? You don't give a tinker's cuss one way or another about working tax credits or the internal market or widening the A14. It's all about Europe and Cam's perfect storm has arrived. We as a nation would prefer to be out.

    But no.

    You want to go and not have that referendum and not get us out of here because in 2035 you think you might have a shot at holding the balance of power.
    Do you think Cameron would have got anywhere near saying what he did, or come to that would have promised a referendum if UKIP wasn't breathing down his neck ? You might want to review this to remind yourself of how his views on the EU have changed as the threat became more obvious.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/11259224/David-Cameron-The-journey-from-immigration-dove-to-immigration-hawk.html
    Haven't read the link and I don't doubt that UKIP were instrumental in moving him to that position (as were many of his moronic solipsistic back-benchers).

    And as any decent pressure group they should be patting themselves on the back, saying: "job done - now to complete it we need to get them in to get the referendum". Again, standard pressure group fare.

    But no. They seem determined to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

    And as for @Socrates‌ the charge that Cam will renege on his promise, obviously we will have to wait and see but I just don't buy it. He looked us in the eye, he told us to our face. He is finished if he is PM and we don't have one. His back-benchers if no one else will see to that. And I think you are too smart to think he will renege but too committed to your position to acknowledge it because it really is tin-foil hat territory.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Socrates said:

    The yellow belly is David Cameron. He's scared of standing up to Angela Merkel, his boss.

    "Frau Merkel, can we have a points system?"
    "No, David."
    "Frau Merkel, can we have a cap on EU immigration?"
    "No, David."
    "Frau Merkel, can we have an emergency brake on EU immigration, that comes in sometimes?"
    "No, David."
    "Frau Merkel, can we limit some benefits for a few years to EU immigrants?"
    "Umm, sure, we've been doing it for years."
    "I'm going to DEMAND we limit benefits to EU immigrants"
    "Yes, dear."

    If only he'd give you a referendum to register your dissatisfaction

    Oh wait.
    Which he wouldn't have dont if UKIP had not been stealing his votes.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    logical_song said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    how childish... snigger

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/steerpike/2014/11/tories-give-mark-reckless-worst-office-in-parliament-2/

    Never mind he won't have to put up with in for long, maybe the new MP for Doncaster N or Thanet S could get it.
    The Tories put more effort into punishing people that have snubbed them that standing up for the British people against the German Chancellor. They're unfit for government.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    TGOHF,

    "Yet still the Kippers will do anything to avoid a referendum - it's perverse."

    I'm sure they'll be happy to have a referendum in the next six months. How about Cameron?

    And the prospect might concentrate minds in Brussels.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,439
    MikeSmithson said:

    I like this UKIP story.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/nov/27/-sp-ukip-mistakes-westminster-cathedral-for-mosque

    I reckon more Kippers were planning on turning up to Dirty Dicks, thought it was a Mosque and decided not to turn up.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    David Cameron’s immigration speech: I broke my promise; this time will be different

    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/david-camerons-immigration-speech-i-broke-my-promise-this-time-will-be-different-9889836.html
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,439
    I've come to the conclusion that the Kippers will take a referendum defeat with less grace than the Nats and demand more plebiscites until they got the right result.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,306
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I've come to the conclusion that the Kippers will take a referendum defeat with less grace than the Nats and demand more plebiscites until they got the right result.

    Where would they get an idea like that from I wonder?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    TOPPING said:

    Indigo said:

    TOPPING said:

    Socrates said:

    @isam 48% to 32% is a huge lead for the out camp. And that was BEFORE Cameron has said he isn't going to limit EU immigration.

    WILL YOU LOT EVER TAKE YES FOR AN ANSWER?????

    Ahem.

    Out leads. Fantastic! That means that a Cons govt will deliver a referendum which will deliver an OUT vote.

    Get campaigning/leafleting/perhaps you could do some tele-canvassing - get in touch with CCHQ, they will guide you.

    I mean you lot want out of the EU don't you?? You don't give a tinker's cuss one way or another about working tax credits or the internal market or widening the A14. It's all about Europe and Cam's perfect storm has arrived. We as a nation would prefer to be out.

    But no.

    You want to go and not have that referendum and not get us out of here because in 2035 you think you might have a shot at holding the balance of power.
    Do you think Cameron would have got anywhere near saying what he did, or come to that would have promised a referendum if UKIP wasn't breathing down his neck ? You might want to review this to remind yourself of how his views on the EU have changed as the threat became more obvious.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/11259224/David-Cameron-The-journey-from-immigration-dove-to-immigration-hawk.html
    Haven't read the link and I don't doubt that UKIP were instrumental in moving him to that position (as were many of his moronic solipsistic back-benchers).

    And as any decent pressure group they should be patting themselves on the back, saying: "job done - now to complete it we need to get them in to get the referendum". Again, standard pressure group fare.

    But no. They seem determined to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

    And as for @Socrates‌ the charge that Cam will renege on his promise, obviously we will have to wait and see but I just don't buy it. He looked us in the eye, he told us to our face. He is finished if he is PM and we don't have one. His back-benchers if no one else will see to that. And I think you are too smart to think he will renege but too committed to your position to acknowledge it because it really is tin-foil hat territory.
    "This is somebody who made a promise at the last general election. He said ‘No ifs, no buts, we will get net migration down’ and it’s gone up. He actually said ‘Kick us out in five years if we don’t deliver’. "

    http://www.tekjournalismuk.com/where-but-the-uk/david-cameron-keynote-immigration-speech
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    Socrates,

    "The yellow belly is David Cameron."

    Oi!

    'Yellowbelly' is a compliment. 'Tyke' however ...
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,712
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    demand more plebiscites until they got the right result.

    You mean like the EU do?
This discussion has been closed.