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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour’s Scottish crisis is masking what could be even more

SystemSystem Posts: 11,696
edited November 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour’s Scottish crisis is masking what could be even more significant – the Tory collapse in England

A great feature of the weekly Ashcroft National Poll is that it shows a separate voting split for England where 533 of the 650 constituencies are including the vast bulk of the marginals.

Read the full story here


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Comments

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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,550
    edited November 2014
    Time for Lord Ashcroft (or any pollster) to do an England only poll
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    edited November 2014
    Second! (like a good Tory!)
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    So we are comparing a GE result with one poll ? Right.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    This is noise. The Ashcroft polls are volatile, and weekly variations shouldn't be taken too seriously. The overall picture in November remains a modest Labour -> Conservative swing.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    TGOHF said:

    So we are comparing a GE result with one poll ? Right.

    Welcome to PB!
  • Options
    Oliver_PBOliver_PB Posts: 397
    FPT
    another_richard said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Oliver_PB said:

    When talking about the deficit, why do Conservative supporters selectively avoid mentioning 2.5% VAT increase, the biggest tax single increase in decades?

    If you want to talk about 'selectively avoiding mentioning' this tax increase, perhaps you should point out that it was the biggest tax increase since Darling's bigger VAT increase a year and a bit earlier.
    The VAT rise was one of the best things this government has done.

    With a country borrowing to overconsume as the UK does then increasing tax on imported consumer tat is an excellent idea.
    So you're saying that the VAT rise was a proxy for tarriffs?

    That's an... interesting view, I'll give you that.
  • Options
    NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    Whoah! The Tories have had a good polling month or two overall so as I said in the last thread let's wait a few more days at least before calling this a Tory collapse!
  • Options
    EastwingerEastwinger Posts: 351
    Wildly different to last weeks Ashcroft. Which one is correct?

    Probably somewhere in the middle.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    It's also an 18%+ LD-UKIP swing.
  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    edited November 2014
    Obama fires Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel.

    According to sources reported by Fox News and CNN the process started in August when he and Gen Dmpsey gave a briefing about the real threat of ISIS, at a time when Obama was calling it the JV team.

    Another depressing confirmation that you echo the White House view and Obama's rather unrealistic world view on everything or else.

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014/11/24/obama-finds-midterm-scapegoat-in-hagel/

    Politics above policy.

    Whatever happened to politics stops at the water's edge?

    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/25/us/hagel-said-to-be-stepping-down-as-defense-chief-under-pressure.html?_r=0
  • Options
    Oliver_PBOliver_PB Posts: 397
    Labour losing ground to the SNP in Scotland has impacted their UK-wide polling while their vote in England is holding up. One of the reasons that top-line figures and UNS can be misleading.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,917
    And Tories have still been thinking they could win? It's laughable how easy a job Labour have to win a majority; that there is even a possibility they might not is a testament to how poorly they have been doing as well.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited November 2014
    People have always overestimated how fundamentally "Toryish" England supposedly is. Even in 2005, when Labour were only 3% ahead UK-wide. they were still only behind in England by a tiny amount.

    Virtually anywhere in northern England within a few miles of a city is just as allergic to the Tories as Scotland is.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,009
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    This is noise. The Ashcroft polls are volatile, and weekly variations shouldn't be taken too seriously. The overall picture in November remains a modest Labour -> Conservative swing.

    Got to agree. The Ashcroft polls are too volatile compared to the others to warrant any analysis beyond how on earth do they fluctuate so much more than the others..
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,115
    We could do with England polling being broken down into different types of constituency.

    Lord Ashcroft did that in different sorts of marginal constituency in some megapolls in 2008 and 2009.

    I doubt we would see an 8.5% Con-UKIP swing in inner London but it would be higher in Lincolnshire.

  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Bad for the Tories, catastrophic for the Lib Dems.

    pretty good for UKIP too it has to be said.
  • Options
    NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    Tim_B said:

    Obama fires Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel.

    According to sources reported by Fox News and CNN the process started in August when he and Gen Dmpsey gave a briefing about the real threat of ISIS, at a time when Obama was calling it the JV team.

    Another depressing confirmation that you echo the White House view and Obama's rather unrealistic world view on everything or else.

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014/11/24/obama-finds-midterm-scapegoat-in-hagel/

    Politics above policy.

    Whatever happened to politics stops at the water's edge?

    Alarming - is Obama developing a bunker mentality Tim?
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,115
    Oliver_PB said:

    FPT

    another_richard said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Oliver_PB said:

    When talking about the deficit, why do Conservative supporters selectively avoid mentioning 2.5% VAT increase, the biggest tax single increase in decades?

    If you want to talk about 'selectively avoiding mentioning' this tax increase, perhaps you should point out that it was the biggest tax increase since Darling's bigger VAT increase a year and a bit earlier.
    The VAT rise was one of the best things this government has done.

    With a country borrowing to overconsume as the UK does then increasing tax on imported consumer tat is an excellent idea.
    So you're saying that the VAT rise was a proxy for tarriffs?

    That's an... interesting view, I'll give you that.
    I doubt that the government had that intention but it does have that effect.
  • Options
    EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Evening all and sorry but what a ludicrous topic for a thread. Had the Tories started polling at LibDem levels I could perhaps understand the tone but this is just nonsense.
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    NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    kle4 said:

    And Tories have still been thinking they could win? It's laughable how easy a job Labour have to win a majority; that there is even a possibility they might not is a testament to how poorly they have been doing as well.

    The GE will concentrate minds no doubt.
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    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,993
    edited November 2014
    Danny565 said:

    People have always overestimated how fundamentally "Toryish" England supposedly is. Even in 2005, when Labour were only 3% ahead UK-wide. they were still only behind in England by a tiny amount.

    Virtually anywhere in northern England within a few miles of a city is just as allergic to the Tories as Scotland is.

    I think there was a major demographic shift which started to register in votes during the 1990s. In simple terms Britain moved from being a country with a natural Tory majority (i.e. the natural party of government as they used to be called) to one with a natural Labour majority.
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    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,882
    We'll be able to see if Labour are winning seats far down their target list in Ashcroft's next round of marginals polling. (unless he's revisiting old ones)
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,550
    Funding crisis leaves Newcastle facing ‘impossible cuts’ and social unrest

    Leader of city council says ‘embers of unrest are starting to smoulder’ with many authorities on brink of financial collapse

    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/nov/24/funding-crisis-newcastle-impossible-cuts-social-unrest
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited November 2014
    RobD said:

    TGOHF said:

    So we are comparing a GE result with one poll ? Right.

    Welcome to PB!
    The average CON share in all Ashcroft polls over the past 3 months is just over 30%. That is down more than 9% in England's 533 seats on 2010. LAB is averaging about 31.3% up 3% on 2010.

    This is not just one poll although, I agree, today the changes are sharp.

    I find it totally amazing how Tories on this site fail to see the weakness of their position. They are betting everything on a belief that negative views of EdM will see them through.



  • Options
    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    "What strikes me is that the inclusion of Wales and mostly Scotland in the GB figures mean that the UKIP surge has been understated in the part of the UK where 95% of the LAB-CON marginals are."

    This seems to make no sense.

    % UKIP vote in Wales Euro 2014 == 27.55 per cent
    % UKIP vote in GB Euro 2014 == 27.49 per cent

    There is zero evidence that Wales has been immune from UKIP surge.

    I don't much like UKIP, but that was an astonishing Welsh result.

    My guess is that, in the next Euros, UKIP will become the first party to beat Labour in a national election in Wales for over a century.
  • Options
    saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    edited November 2014
    MikeSmithson said:

    RobD said:

    TGOHF said:

    So we are comparing a GE result with one poll ? Right.

    Welcome to PB!
    The average CON share in all Ashcroft polls over the past 3 months is just over 30%. That is down more than 9% in England's 533 seats on 2010. LAB is averaging about 31.3% up 3% on 2010.

    This is not just one poll although, I agree, today the changes are sharp.

    I find it totally amazing how Tories on this site fail to see the weakness of their position. They are betting everything on a belief that negative views of EdM will see them through.



    Still Labour have got the libdem switcher firewall to rely on, there's no way that could collapse. Or not.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Funding crisis leaves Newcastle facing ‘impossible cuts’ and social unrest

    Leader of city council says ‘embers of unrest are starting to smoulder’ with many authorities on brink of financial collapse

    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/nov/24/funding-crisis-newcastle-impossible-cuts-social-unrest

    Time to sack some diversity coordinators ?
  • Options
    audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    For goodness sake Mike get a grip man. You're being blown hither and thither by every single opinion poll. Take a step back, draw breath and watch with a little more circumspection.

    (Especially where an Ashcroft phone poll is concerned.)
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,883
    Floater said:

    Bad for the Tories, catastrophic for the Lib Dems.

    pretty good for UKIP too it has to be said.

    I think you might have missed a party.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited November 2014
    MikeSmithson said:

    RobD said:

    TGOHF said:

    So we are comparing a GE result with one poll ? Right.

    Welcome to PB!
    I find it totally amazing how Tories on this site fail to see the weakness of their position. They are betting everything on a belief that negative views of EdM will see them through.


    Unlike polls Ed's ratings do not go up and down. Just down.
  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Norm said:

    Tim_B said:

    Obama fires Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel.

    According to sources reported by Fox News and CNN the process started in August when he and Gen Dmpsey gave a briefing about the real threat of ISIS, at a time when Obama was calling it the JV team.

    Another depressing confirmation that you echo the White House view and Obama's rather unrealistic world view on everything or else.

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014/11/24/obama-finds-midterm-scapegoat-in-hagel/

    Politics above policy.

    Whatever happened to politics stops at the water's edge?

    Alarming - is Obama developing a bunker mentality Tim?
    He's had one since day 1.

    When the health care debate started, Paul Ryan offered Republican help and a list of ideas. Obama repllied "Elections have consequences. We won" and that was that. Hence the Republicans were shut out.

    Obama is a left wing ideolog. He has a small circle of folks in the White House, led by Valerie Jarrett. On foreign policy he has Susan Rice and Ben Rhodes. They seem to indulge in groupthink and ignore anything that conflicts with their mindset.

    Another example - during the Benghazi incident the line was that the attack was caused by some video, even though all the inteligence briefings said it was terrorism. Remember this was 2012 and Obama was seeking reelection, saying that Al Quada was destroyed, and anything conflicting with that view had to be ignored.

    Obama's executive action on immigration was justified by him on the grounds that Bush did the same thing in 1990, a statement that got him 4 pinnochios from the Washington Post, as well as an upside down pinnochio for his flipflop on whether he had the power to do it, having said 22 times that he hadn't. You may recall he also got 4 pinnochios for his 'If you like your doctor you can keep your dctor" statement, which also got him the liar of the year award.

    He is delusional and a liar of epic proportions and as the last election shows, the country wants him stopped.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Funding crisis leaves Newcastle facing ‘impossible cuts’ and social unrest

    Leader of city council says ‘embers of unrest are starting to smoulder’ with many authorities on brink of financial collapse

    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/nov/24/funding-crisis-newcastle-impossible-cuts-social-unrest

    Perhaps reviewing pay, benefits and conditions might be in order then, like the vast majority of private-sector organisations have had to do over the last 10-15 years?
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    YBarddCwsc said:

    "What strikes me is that the inclusion of Wales and mostly Scotland in the GB figures mean that the UKIP surge has been understated in the part of the UK where 95% of the LAB-CON marginals are."

    This seems to make no sense.

    % UKIP vote in Wales Euro 2014 == 27.55 per cent
    % UKIP vote in GB Euro 2014 == 27.49 per cent

    There is zero evidence that Wales has been immune from UKIP surge.

    I don't much like UKIP, but that was an astonishing Welsh result.

    My guess is that, in the next Euros, UKIP will become the first party to beat Labour in a national election in Wales for over a century.

    That's not true: the Conservatives won the 2009 Euro-election in Wales.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,550
    TGOHF said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Funding crisis leaves Newcastle facing ‘impossible cuts’ and social unrest

    Leader of city council says ‘embers of unrest are starting to smoulder’ with many authorities on brink of financial collapse

    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/nov/24/funding-crisis-newcastle-impossible-cuts-social-unrest

    Time to sack some diversity coordinators ?
    We need to abolish local government.

    Think of the efficiency savings.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    MikeSmithson said:

    RobD said:

    TGOHF said:

    So we are comparing a GE result with one poll ? Right.

    Welcome to PB!
    The average CON share in all Ashcroft polls over the past 3 months is just over 30%. That is down more than 9% in England's 533 seats on 2010. LAB is averaging about 31.3% up 3% on 2010.

    This is not just one poll although, I agree, today the changes are sharp.

    I find it totally amazing how Tories on this site fail to see the weakness of their position. They are betting everything on a belief that negative views of EdM will see them through.

    I don't think it's that we fail to see it; it's that (1) yes, we do believe that Ed is Crap - he is - and that will have a (further) effect by May and that (2) there ain't a huge amount more that could be done anyway: there's a positive message to be sold from our time in government (yes, it could be better but it could have been a damn sight worse), and if that's not enough during the campaign, well, so be it. At least the Conservatives *have* a positive message, which is more than some parties do.

    It is certainly that case that Labour could win. They don't deserve to and should they do so, I fear for the country's future, but it could happen. I will be taking precautions re my own finances against the possibility anyway.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited November 2014
    MikeSmithson said:

    I find it totally amazing how Tories on this site fail to see the weakness of their position. They are betting everything on a belief that negative views of EdM will see them through.

    Are they? Mostly they think - quite rightly - that EdM is an asset to the Conservatives, but very few are completely confident that the country won't slide back into the bad old ways. My own view is that it is highly likely that there will be a net swing to the Conservatives between now and 2015, but will it be enough? Dunno, and in betting terms I make a handsome profit either way, having followed my own advice and lumped on Labour when the odds were good in 2011/12. I've also been reducing my exposure to the UK economy in view of the political risk.

    Hope for the best and plan for the worst remains good advice.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,115
    YBarddCwsc said:

    "What strikes me is that the inclusion of Wales and mostly Scotland in the GB figures mean that the UKIP surge has been understated in the part of the UK where 95% of the LAB-CON marginals are."

    This seems to make no sense.

    % UKIP vote in Wales Euro 2014 == 27.55 per cent
    % UKIP vote in GB Euro 2014 == 27.49 per cent

    There is zero evidence that Wales has been immune from UKIP surge.

    I don't much like UKIP, but that was an astonishing Welsh result.

    My guess is that, in the next Euros, UKIP will become the first party to beat Labour in a national election in Wales for over a century.

    The Conservatives did that in the 2009 Euros.

    UKIP did especially well in North Wales in the 2014 Euros.

    I guess there they have an anti-Cardiff feeling to tap into alongside the usual anti-Westminster and anti-Brussels feelings.

    The Welsh Conservatives still did well in 2014 in Monmouthshire and Pembrokeshire.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,883
    TGOHF said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    RobD said:

    TGOHF said:

    So we are comparing a GE result with one poll ? Right.

    Welcome to PB!
    I find it totally amazing how Tories on this site fail to see the weakness of their position. They are betting everything on a belief that negative views of EdM will see them through.


    Unlike polls Ed's ratings do not go up and down. Just down.
    Amazing as you say Mike.

    The majority of PBers I spoke to at DD on Friday genuinely expect to get a similar number of seats to 2010.

    I asked 12 Tory/UKIP PBers their view on GE2015 at DD.

    Results were Tories 8 DK 2 Probably Ed 2.

  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,883
    bigjohnowls said:

    TGOHF said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    RobD said:

    TGOHF said:

    So we are comparing a GE result with one poll ? Right.

    Welcome to PB!
    I find it totally amazing how Tories on this site fail to see the weakness of their position. They are betting everything on a belief that negative views of EdM will see them through.


    Unlike polls Ed's ratings do not go up and down. Just down.
    Amazing as you say Mike.

    The majority of PBers I spoke to at DD on Friday genuinely expect to get a similar number of seats to 2010.

    I asked 12 Tory/UKIP PBers their view on plurality GE2015 at DD.

    Results were Tories 8 DK 2 Probably Ed 2.

  • Options
    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited November 2014
    I am not used to all this hyperbole from Mr Smithson. At one time his crutch was the 2010 LD switchers.. no mention of that these days. One UNTESTED AND UNPROVFN (in methodology ) poll from Lord Ashcroft and its the Tories are collapsing.

    I seem to recall a polling organisation Angus Reed that Mr Smithson was rather fond of..... and we know what happened there.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    bigjohnowls said:

    Floater said:

    Bad for the Tories, catastrophic for the Lib Dems.

    pretty good for UKIP too it has to be said.

    I think you might have missed a party.
    didnt think Labour showed much change.
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    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    "That's not true: the Conservatives won the 2009 Euro-election in Wales."

    So they did, polling 145k and beatings Labour's 139k. I had forgotten! Thanks for setting me right.

    Still, UKIP's achievement of 202k in 2014 astonished me.

    We've had little polling or by-elections from the Valleys and the Deeside, but they look like they must have experienced similar surges as demographically comparable English seats, given the Euro result.

    (The by election last week was in the most affluent part of Swansea).


  • Options
    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Funding crisis leaves Newcastle facing ‘impossible cuts’ and social unrest

    Leader of city council says ‘embers of unrest are starting to smoulder’ with many authorities on brink of financial collapse

    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/nov/24/funding-crisis-newcastle-impossible-cuts-social-unrest

    Oh dear, what a shame. They should reduce head count and try and do more for less. What they'd like to do, is force up the taxes they're clawing out of every hardworking earners wallets.
  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Folowing the snowstorm in Buffalo last week, they have started removing - this is no typo - 220,000 tons of snow from the Bills stadium
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,115
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Funding crisis leaves Newcastle facing ‘impossible cuts’ and social unrest

    Leader of city council says ‘embers of unrest are starting to smoulder’ with many authorities on brink of financial collapse

    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/nov/24/funding-crisis-newcastle-impossible-cuts-social-unrest

    Unless the other four NE met boroughs have the same problems then it will look like another case of big city local government incompetance and waste.

    'If Gateshead can manage then richer Newcastle would as well if it was properly run' would be the best government response.
  • Options
    nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    david_herdson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Funding crisis leaves Newcastle facing ‘impossible cuts’ and social unrest

    Leader of city council says ‘embers of unrest are starting to smoulder’ with many authorities on brink of financial collapse

    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/nov/24/funding-crisis-newcastle-impossible-cuts-social-unrest

    Perhaps reviewing pay, benefits and conditions might be in order then, like the vast majority of private-sector organisations have had to do over the last 10-15 years?
    And spending some of the billions these Labour councils have in reserve, they are deliberately cutting services when they don't need to in order to make a political point. Labour are scum.
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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Richard_Nabavi

    'This is noise. The Ashcroft polls are volatile, and weekly variations shouldn't be taken too seriously.'

    Reminds me of all the excitement we had in 2009 with Angus Reid,nobody talks about that anymore,can't think why.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    TheWatcher said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Funding crisis leaves Newcastle facing ‘impossible cuts’ and social unrest

    Leader of city council says ‘embers of unrest are starting to smoulder’ with many authorities on brink of financial collapse

    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/nov/24/funding-crisis-newcastle-impossible-cuts-social-unrest

    Oh dear, what a shame. They should reduce head count and try and do more for less. What they'd like to do, is force up the taxes they're clawing out of every hardworking earners wallets.
    Their problem is no doubt they are paying out a sizeable portion of their income to retired employees on juicy fat cat public sector defined benefit pensions - a few of which are probably under 65.

    No way to reduce those burdens other than stop hiring so many people and cross your fingers for 30 years.

    Otherwise it's Detroit time...
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    isamisam Posts: 40,965
    Someone linked to a table that showed the list of opinion polls in Wales since 2010

    A huge jump to Labour from the LDs at the start, followed by drip drip drip from Labour to UKIP ever since.. if anyone could dig it out that would be great
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    YBarddCwsc said:

    "That's not true: the Conservatives won the 2009 Euro-election in Wales."

    So they did, polling 145k and beatings Labour's 139k. I had forgotten! Thanks for setting me right.

    Still, UKIP's achievement of 202k in 2014 astonished me.

    We've had little polling or by-elections from the Valleys and the Deeside, but they look like they must have experienced similar surges as demographically comparable English seats, given the Euro result.

    (The by election last week was in the most affluent part of Swansea).

    By the way, I should have agreed with the sentiment of your post. There's a lazy assumption among too many commentators that because Scotland is now very much a different country politically, so Wales must be too. To an extent, of course, it is - but to nowhere near the same degree. Obviously, the presence of Plaid and the existence of the Assembly do have an effect but as you rightly say, the rise of UKIP is similar to that in England (and certainly closer overall than the differential rises of it within either); likewise, the Con/Lab/LD changes are similar - though not identical - to those in England.

    A few Welsh Ashcroft constituency polls wouldn't go amiss.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Of the £22.4billion handed over by families in council tax in England in 2012-13, some £5.7billion went towards paying for council workers’ pensions

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2512940/Quarter-council-tax-goes-funding-town-hall-pensions--5-7bn-handed-past-year-goes-paying-retirement-incomes.html#ixzz3K1dz6mvV
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,969
    audreyanne said:

    For goodness sake Mike get a grip man. You're being blown hither and thither by every single opinion poll. Take a step back, draw breath and watch with a little more circumspection.

    (Especially where an Ashcroft phone poll is concerned.)

    Funny, I remember you slating the Ashcroft poll before Rochester and claiming it would overstate Labour. I believe your precise claim was that Labour would not get more than 10%.

    In the event they got 17% - which was incidently exactly what Ashcroft had predicted.

    We always used to say that anytime someone didn't like a poll they would say it was a rogue. You seem to have extended that to every poll Ashcroft produces simply because they reveal a narrative that runs counter to your political views.
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    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    TGOHF said:

    TheWatcher said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Funding crisis leaves Newcastle facing ‘impossible cuts’ and social unrest

    Leader of city council says ‘embers of unrest are starting to smoulder’ with many authorities on brink of financial collapse

    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/nov/24/funding-crisis-newcastle-impossible-cuts-social-unrest

    Oh dear, what a shame. They should reduce head count and try and do more for less. What they'd like to do, is force up the taxes they're clawing out of every hardworking earners wallets.
    Their problem is no doubt they are paying out a sizeable portion of their income to retired employees on juicy fat cat public sector defined benefit pensions - a few of which are probably under 65.

    No way to reduce those burdens other than stop hiring so many people and cross your fingers for 30 years.

    Otherwise it's Detroit time...
    Which is at 7pm eastern this evening when the game starts :-)
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Why are the Tories so hated in England ? Like they are in Scotland ? Like they are......
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    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,317
    I think everyone should stop being beastly to Mike Smithson. We know that dinner parties haven't been that great for the Lib Dems since their MPs joined the Coalition, and a Miliband-Lib Pact would restore a lot of self-esteem. Mike just wants his social life back!
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,290
    Why is OGH attaching such huge importance to one poll?

    Take a look at Wiki - on 9 October we had Lab leads of 7 and 5 and then immediately afterwards it was back to Tie, 1 and 2.

    Maybe the Rochester by-election has led to a huge change - but surely we need at least another three or four polls for confirmation.

    And even if there has been a huge change, will it last? How long did people remember the Clacton by-election?

    The key thing everyone on here supporting all parties should remember: only a tiny percentage of the public follows politics closely - almost every political story is forgotten by 95%+ of people very quickly.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    TGOHF said:

    TheWatcher said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Funding crisis leaves Newcastle facing ‘impossible cuts’ and social unrest

    Leader of city council says ‘embers of unrest are starting to smoulder’ with many authorities on brink of financial collapse

    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/nov/24/funding-crisis-newcastle-impossible-cuts-social-unrest

    Oh dear, what a shame. They should reduce head count and try and do more for less. What they'd like to do, is force up the taxes they're clawing out of every hardworking earners wallets.
    Their problem is no doubt they are paying out a sizeable portion of their income to retired employees on juicy fat cat public sector defined benefit pensions - a few of which are probably under 65.

    No way to reduce those burdens other than stop hiring so many people and cross your fingers for 30 years.

    Otherwise it's Detroit time...
    They shouldn't be: local government pension schemes (unlike central gvt) are supposed to be fully-funded, in the same way as the private sector. There is the same issue with low returns on existing investments but those sort of issues aside, past commitments shouldn't impact unduly on future budgets. Today's commitments, on the other hand, are a different matter.
  • Options
    EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    MikeSmithson said:

    RobD said:

    TGOHF said:

    So we are comparing a GE result with one poll ? Right.

    Welcome to PB!
    The average CON share in all Ashcroft polls over the past 3 months is just over 30%. That is down more than 9% in England's 533 seats on 2010. LAB is averaging about 31.3% up 3% on 2010.

    This is not just one poll although, I agree, today the changes are sharp.

    I find it totally amazing how Tories on this site fail to see the weakness of their position. They are betting everything on a belief that negative views of EdM will see them through.



    Some of us are just sufficiently long in the tooth to well remember 1982, 1986 and 1991 when the Tories had been losing by-election after by-election, many with larger majorities than either Clacton or Rochester but when it came to the crunch and voters faced either Foot or Kinnock as opponents to Thatcher or Major, there was a swing back to the Tories (even ignoring the Falklands factor).

    If as appears to be the case the LibDems are looking at reverting to the size of parliamentary party which was pretty much standard until 1987, the Tory lead over Labour doesn't need to be anything like as large as 7%.

    We will know in 6 months time but some pollsters should remember 1992.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,550
    surbiton said:

    Why are the Tories so hated in England ? Like they are in Scotland ? Like they are......

    Then what are Labour then?

    Labour have trailed the Tories in the popular vote in England for the last two general elections.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    david_herdson said:

    TGOHF said:

    TheWatcher said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Funding crisis leaves Newcastle facing ‘impossible cuts’ and social unrest

    Leader of city council says ‘embers of unrest are starting to smoulder’ with many authorities on brink of financial collapse

    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/nov/24/funding-crisis-newcastle-impossible-cuts-social-unrest

    Oh dear, what a shame. They should reduce head count and try and do more for less. What they'd like to do, is force up the taxes they're clawing out of every hardworking earners wallets.
    Their problem is no doubt they are paying out a sizeable portion of their income to retired employees on juicy fat cat public sector defined benefit pensions - a few of which are probably under 65.

    No way to reduce those burdens other than stop hiring so many people and cross your fingers for 30 years.

    Otherwise it's Detroit time...
    They shouldn't be: local government pension schemes (unlike central gvt) are supposed to be fully-funded, in the same way as the private sector. There is the same issue with low returns on existing investments but those sort of issues aside, past commitments shouldn't impact unduly on future budgets. Today's commitments, on the other hand, are a different matter.
    Check out that Daily Mail link below - Scotland even more startling.
  • Options
    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    TGOHF said:

    TheWatcher said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Funding crisis leaves Newcastle facing ‘impossible cuts’ and social unrest

    Leader of city council says ‘embers of unrest are starting to smoulder’ with many authorities on brink of financial collapse

    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/nov/24/funding-crisis-newcastle-impossible-cuts-social-unrest

    Oh dear, what a shame. They should reduce head count and try and do more for less. What they'd like to do, is force up the taxes they're clawing out of every hardworking earners wallets.
    Their problem is no doubt they are paying out a sizeable portion of their income to retired employees on juicy fat cat public sector defined benefit pensions - a few of which are probably under 65.

    No way to reduce those burdens other than stop hiring so many people and cross your fingers for 30 years.

    Otherwise it's Detroit time...
    A few under 65? Probably the majority.

    Pay Council Tax, and you're being taken for a ride.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,965
    edited November 2014
    Welsh Opinion poll graph (Westminster)

    http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/wp-content/uploads/sites/100/2013/07/UKGE-Polls.png


    Welsh opinion poll graph (NA)

    http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/wp-content/uploads/sites/100/2013/07/NAW-Constit-Polls.png
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    surbiton said:

    Why are the Tories so hated in England ? Like they are in Scotland ? Like they are......

    Then what are Labour then?

    Labour have trailed the Tories in the popular vote in England for the last two general elections.
    The operative word above is "last". Currently, you are getting spanked.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,883
    Easterross said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    RobD said:

    TGOHF said:

    So we are comparing a GE result with one poll ? Right.

    Welcome to PB!
    The average CON share in all Ashcroft polls over the past 3 months is just over 30%. That is down more than 9% in England's 533 seats on 2010. LAB is averaging about 31.3% up 3% on 2010.

    This is not just one poll although, I agree, today the changes are sharp.

    I find it totally amazing how Tories on this site fail to see the weakness of their position. They are betting everything on a belief that negative views of EdM will see them through.



    Some of us are just sufficiently long in the tooth to well remember 1982, 1986 and 1991 when the Tories had been losing by-election after by-election, many with larger majorities than either Clacton or Rochester but when it came to the crunch and voters faced either Foot or Kinnock as opponents to Thatcher or Major, there was a swing back to the Tories (even ignoring the Falklands factor).

    If as appears to be the case the LibDems are looking at reverting to the size of parliamentary party which was pretty much standard until 1987, the Tory lead over Labour doesn't need to be anything like as large as 7%.

    We will know in 6 months time but some pollsters should remember 1992.
    Is it really 22 years since the last Tory Majority.

    Wow time flies
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,550
    edited November 2014
    surbiton said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    surbiton said:

    Why are the Tories so hated in England ? Like they are in Scotland ? Like they are......

    Then what are Labour then?

    Labour have trailed the Tories in the popular vote in England for the last two general elections.
    The operative word above is "last". Currently, you are getting spanked.
    I haven't been spanked since I visited the Mistress of Pain.

    Oh, that was TMI wasn't it.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Easterross said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    RobD said:

    TGOHF said:

    So we are comparing a GE result with one poll ? Right.

    Welcome to PB!
    The average CON share in all Ashcroft polls over the past 3 months is just over 30%. That is down more than 9% in England's 533 seats on 2010. LAB is averaging about 31.3% up 3% on 2010.

    This is not just one poll although, I agree, today the changes are sharp.

    I find it totally amazing how Tories on this site fail to see the weakness of their position. They are betting everything on a belief that negative views of EdM will see them through.



    Some of us are just sufficiently long in the tooth to well remember 1982, 1986 and 1991 when the Tories had been losing by-election after by-election, many with larger majorities than either Clacton or Rochester but when it came to the crunch and voters faced either Foot or Kinnock as opponents to Thatcher or Major, there was a swing back to the Tories (even ignoring the Falklands factor).

    If as appears to be the case the LibDems are looking at reverting to the size of parliamentary party which was pretty much standard until 1987, the Tory lead over Labour doesn't need to be anything like as large as 7%.

    We will know in 6 months time but some pollsters should remember 1992.
    Two words immediately comes to mind: clutch, straw !
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,550
    Looks like Labour are going after private schools.

    Britain’s private schools will lose £700m in tax breaks unless they agree to break down the “corrosive divide of privilege” and do more to help children from state schools, Tristram Hunt, shadow education secretary, writes in the Guardian.

    http://www.theguardian.com/education/2014/nov/24/private-schools-labour-warning-tax-breaks-tristram-hunt?CMP=twt_gu
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    TGOHF said:

    david_herdson said:

    TGOHF said:

    TheWatcher said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Funding crisis leaves Newcastle facing ‘impossible cuts’ and social unrest

    Leader of city council says ‘embers of unrest are starting to smoulder’ with many authorities on brink of financial collapse

    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/nov/24/funding-crisis-newcastle-impossible-cuts-social-unrest

    Oh dear, what a shame. They should reduce head count and try and do more for less. What they'd like to do, is force up the taxes they're clawing out of every hardworking earners wallets.
    Their problem is no doubt they are paying out a sizeable portion of their income to retired employees on juicy fat cat public sector defined benefit pensions - a few of which are probably under 65.

    No way to reduce those burdens other than stop hiring so many people and cross your fingers for 30 years.

    Otherwise it's Detroit time...
    They shouldn't be: local government pension schemes (unlike central gvt) are supposed to be fully-funded, in the same way as the private sector. There is the same issue with low returns on existing investments but those sort of issues aside, past commitments shouldn't impact unduly on future budgets. Today's commitments, on the other hand, are a different matter.
    Check out that Daily Mail link below - Scotland even more startling.
    Indeed, but the crucial points is that those huge employer contributions are going towards funding today's employees, not yesterday's. Apart from the general pensionfund problem of dealing with the lower returns available ever since 2008/9, there's not a systemic problem *apart from* the fact that commitments to current employees are unaffordable. Now, that is a very big problem but it's also easily resolvable by closing off those schemes and switching future contributions to Money Purchase ones.
  • Options
    EastwingerEastwinger Posts: 351
    Sensible to wait for YouGov.

    always foolish to rely on one poll.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    edited November 2014
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TGOHF said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Funding crisis leaves Newcastle facing ‘impossible cuts’ and social unrest

    Leader of city council says ‘embers of unrest are starting to smoulder’ with many authorities on brink of financial collapse

    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/nov/24/funding-crisis-newcastle-impossible-cuts-social-unrest

    Time to sack some diversity coordinators ?
    We need to abolish local government.

    Think of the efficiency savings.
    Sunil will agree: we need regional governors.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Looks like Labour are going after private schools.

    Britain’s private schools will lose £700m in tax breaks unless they agree to break down the “corrosive divide of privilege” and do more to help children from state schools, Tristram Hunt, shadow education secretary, writes in the Guardian.

    http://www.theguardian.com/education/2014/nov/24/private-schools-labour-warning-tax-breaks-tristram-hunt?CMP=twt_gu

    Oh, that old one again - the old ploy to distract from Labour's failure in state education. Old-timers will recognise it well.

    Reality - a hard task-mistress, TSE! - will soon point out that the tax breaks are negative, and that actually parents whose children go to private schools pay twice. The state sector would collapse if they could no longer afford to do so.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,550
    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TGOHF said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Funding crisis leaves Newcastle facing ‘impossible cuts’ and social unrest

    Leader of city council says ‘embers of unrest are starting to smoulder’ with many authorities on brink of financial collapse

    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/nov/24/funding-crisis-newcastle-impossible-cuts-social-unrest

    Time to sack some diversity coordinators ?
    We need to abolish local government.

    Think of the efficiency savings.
    Sunil will agree: we need regional governors.
    A Directly Elected Dictator of the United Kingdom will appoint regional governors to run the provinces.

    Scotland will be special, and have a Viceroy.

    Mark Thatcher.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,883
    Eastwinger said:

    Sensible to wait for YouGov.

    always foolish to rely on one poll.

    Populus LAB lead 5 and Lord A Lab lead 5

    YG I am going for a Lab lead of 1 or 2.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    MikeSmithson said:

    RobD said:

    TGOHF said:

    So we are comparing a GE result with one poll ? Right.

    Welcome to PB!
    The average CON share in all Ashcroft polls over the past 3 months is just over 30%. That is down more than 9% in England's 533 seats on 2010. LAB is averaging about 31.3% up 3% on 2010.

    This is not just one poll although, I agree, today the changes are sharp.

    I find it totally amazing how Tories on this site fail to see the weakness of their position. They are betting everything on a belief that negative views of EdM will see them through.



    My comment was more a comment on the comments we often see when a poll is released, not necessarily directed at you (or other thread preparers!)

    Ok enough kiss-assing for me!
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,550
    Even the Guardian the say it is an assault on private schools.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B3PSyNMCEAEY7Z_.jpg
  • Options
    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @TGOHF

    'Of the £22.4billion handed over by families in council tax in England in 2012-13, some £5.7billion went towards paying for council workers’ pensions'

    And the Council leader in Newcastle is whining about cuts.
  • Options
    MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    I don't think the Tories are burying their head in the sand - it is more that in every actual vote in God knows how long, Labour is not doing well:

    - it nearly lost Heywood and Middleton
    - it's vote collapsed in Rochester (the Conservatives also fell but as NF said, it was labour-leaning Strood that switched decisively)
    - it didn't do anything in Clacton
    - Bar London, Labour had an awful European election result.

    The thing that ought to frighten Labour is that, every time when people are focused on voting, Labour seems to suffer.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,550
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Looks like Labour are going after private schools.

    Britain’s private schools will lose £700m in tax breaks unless they agree to break down the “corrosive divide of privilege” and do more to help children from state schools, Tristram Hunt, shadow education secretary, writes in the Guardian.

    http://www.theguardian.com/education/2014/nov/24/private-schools-labour-warning-tax-breaks-tristram-hunt?CMP=twt_gu

    Oh, that old one again - the old ploy to distract from Labour's failure in state education. Old-timers will recognise it well.

    Reality - a hard task-mistress, TSE! - will soon point out that the tax breaks are negative, and that actually parents whose children go to private schools pay twice. The state sector would collapse if they could no longer afford to do so.
    Indeed, as a former privately educated chap, the state should be glad of such a thing.

    PBers should be glad of that
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,508
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    I find it totally amazing how Tories on this site fail to see the weakness of their position. They are betting everything on a belief that negative views of EdM will see them through.

    Are they? Mostly they think - quite rightly - that EdM is an asset to the Conservatives, but very few are completely confident that the country won't slide back into the bad old ways. My own view is that it is highly likely that there will be a net swing to the Conservatives between now and 2015, but will it be enough? Dunno, and in betting terms I make a handsome profit either way, having followed my own advice and lumped on Labour when the odds were good in 2011/12. I've also been reducing my exposure to the UK economy in view of the political risk.

    Hope for the best and plan for the worst remains good advice.
    Are you sure the real reason that you're limiting your exposure to the British economy isn't that you realise whoever wins the next election, the economy is doomed, because all Cameron and Osborne have been doing has been kicking the can and allowing Labour being worse to mask their own wilful refusal to stem the gushing arterial bleeding of money out of this country?
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Mike. An important article.

    With all the attention on Labour and UKIP the Tories have avoided the spotlight. The findings of this poll make sense. The tories are without doubt in a significantly worse position than 2010.
  • Options
    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    bigjohnowls said:

    Eastwinger said:

    Sensible to wait for YouGov.

    always foolish to rely on one poll.

    Populus LAB lead 5 and Lord A Lab lead 5

    YG I am going for a Lab lead of 1 or 2.
    The YouGov Monday night poll is the one must likely to suffer from sample distortion. For whatever reason they cannot get enough in the 18-24 age groups and you tend to get odd figures.

  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Looks like Labour are going after private schools.

    Britain’s private schools will lose £700m in tax breaks unless they agree to break down the “corrosive divide of privilege” and do more to help children from state schools, Tristram Hunt, shadow education secretary, writes in the Guardian.

    http://www.theguardian.com/education/2014/nov/24/private-schools-labour-warning-tax-breaks-tristram-hunt?CMP=twt_gu

    This is complete nonsense. It's the government's job to fund and manage state education, not the responsibility of private schools.

    The underlying assumption is that private schools are better. If this is the case then the government shoold look at what they are doing right and then try to emulate it in state schools. This would involve abandoning dogma though.

    Threatening the private schools because state schools are bad is just idiotic.

  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,097
    UKIP actually got the same voteshare in Wales as it did nationally in the Euros, it did better there than Scotland, London and the North West, of course the England figures are entirely a result of the UKIP post-Rochester bounce, as always if all the UKIP voters stay then Miliband wins, if some return then Cameron remains as PM
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,883
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Looks like Labour are going after private schools.

    Britain’s private schools will lose £700m in tax breaks unless they agree to break down the “corrosive divide of privilege” and do more to help children from state schools, Tristram Hunt, shadow education secretary, writes in the Guardian.

    http://www.theguardian.com/education/2014/nov/24/private-schools-labour-warning-tax-breaks-tristram-hunt?CMP=twt_gu

    Unsurprisingly I like the policy

    But even I can see privately educated Hunt will be ridiculed
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,352
    Agreed that a couple of polls don't make a summer, and we all though tthe Rochester+Flag gate might produce some unpredictable effects. But people having a go at Mike are underestimating him - he's looking at polls over 3 months.

    Incidentally, the problem with Angus Reid wasn't that they were volatile, but that their weighting was rubbish. They've fixed it and now produce conventional-looking results.
  • Options
    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    On the England figures alone I now revise my UKIP seat prediction for GE15 as +73 seats. Should UKIP gain an additional 4%, i,e. to 26% then the seat prediction will rise to 180.

    So sayeth the UKIP spirits, and I don't mean those from the bottle. ;)
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,550
    bigjohnowls said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Looks like Labour are going after private schools.

    Britain’s private schools will lose £700m in tax breaks unless they agree to break down the “corrosive divide of privilege” and do more to help children from state schools, Tristram Hunt, shadow education secretary, writes in the Guardian.

    http://www.theguardian.com/education/2014/nov/24/private-schools-labour-warning-tax-breaks-tristram-hunt?CMP=twt_gu

    Unsurprisingly I like the policy

    But even I can see privately educated Hunt will be ridiculed
    Private education in this country gave us, Tony Blair, David Cameron and myself.

    Everyone loves a Public Schoolboy.

    Labour will rue the day when they took on us public schoolboys.
  • Options
    saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    surbiton said:

    Why are the Tories so hated in England ? Like they are in Scotland ? Like they are......

    Why do the left hate so much? It really is quite disturbing. I worry for you.
  • Options
    steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019
    Mike Smithson refers to "the Tory collapse in England", a comment that will surely expose him to ridicule.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,550
    Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn
    YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Respite for Ed Mili as 4 point lead back with UKIP's Rochester bounce. LAB 34%, CON 30%, UKIP 18%, LDEM 6%, GRN 6%
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,883
    Secular stagnation according to B of E
  • Options
    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Even the Guardian the say it is an assault on private schools.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B3PSyNMCEAEY7Z_.jpg

    I look forward to watching state schools pick up the slack, when public ones close. Shouldn't be a problem, should it?
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    MikeSmithson said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Eastwinger said:

    Sensible to wait for YouGov.

    always foolish to rely on one poll.

    Populus LAB lead 5 and Lord A Lab lead 5

    YG I am going for a Lab lead of 1 or 2.
    The YouGov Monday night poll is the one must likely to suffer from sample distortion. For whatever reason they cannot get enough in the 18-24 age groups and you tend to get odd figures.

    Looks like you were right about Monday polls.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,097
    Reuters/Ipsos Iowa Dem Primary

    •Hillary Clinton 60%
    •Elizabeth Warren 17%
    •Joe Biden 4%
    •Andrew Cuomo 3%
    •Bernie Sanders 2%
    •Kirsten Gillibrand 1%
    •Martin O’Malley 1%

    General Election

    •Hillary Clinton (D) 42%
    •Paul Ryan (R) 41%

    •Hillary Clinton (D) 40%
    •Chris Christie (R) 37%

    •Hillary Clinton (D) 43%
    •Rand Paul (R) 36%

    •Hillary Clinton (D) 44%
    •Jeb Bush (R) 36%
    •Paul Ryan (R) 45%
    •Joe Biden (D) 32%

    •Chris Christie (R) 41%
    •Joe Biden (D) 30%

    •Rand Paul (R) 39%
    •Joe Biden (D) 33%

    •Jeb Bush (R) 40%
    •Joe Biden (D) 33%

    •Paul Ryan (R) 41%
    •Andrew Cuomo (D) 27%

    •Chris Christie (R) 39%
    •Andrew Cuomo (D) 24%

    •Rand Paul (R) 37%
    •Andrew Cuomo (D) 30%

    •Jeb Bush (R) 36%
    •Andrew Cuomo (D) 30%
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2014/Reuters_Ipsos_Iowa_103114.pdf




  • Options
    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @TSE

    'Britain’s private schools will lose £700m in tax breaks unless they agree to break down the “corrosive divide of privilege” and do more to help children from state schools, Tristram Hunt, shadow education secretary, writes in the Guardian.'

    So the tax break ends and lots of private schools close / are priced out of business,hope Hunt has a plan and budget to fund all the additional state school students.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,550
    UKIP - Ed's little helpers.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,917
    Norm said:

    kle4 said:

    And Tories have still been thinking they could win? It's laughable how easy a job Labour have to win a majority; that there is even a possibility they might not is a testament to how poorly they have been doing as well.

    The GE will concentrate minds no doubt.
    Yes, and baffling as it is, Labour as a brand are much much more popular, even though Ed M decidedly is not, and so should walk home fairly comfortably. They have contrived to make it harder than it needs to be, but the Tories face so many more fundamental issues preventing them from winning a plurality even. It's not impossible they can overcome that, but fear of Labour and Ed M doing it for them? Not enough to overcome the rest of their troubles I suspect, not least because not enough people fear a Labour return.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,352
    bigjohnowls said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Looks like Labour are going after private schools.

    Britain’s private schools will lose £700m in tax breaks unless they agree to break down the “corrosive divide of privilege” and do more to help children from state schools, Tristram Hunt, shadow education secretary, writes in the Guardian.

    http://www.theguardian.com/education/2014/nov/24/private-schools-labour-warning-tax-breaks-tristram-hunt?CMP=twt_gu

    Unsurprisingly I like the policy

    But even I can see privately educated Hunt will be ridiculed
    No, having said that it's not Cameron's fault that he went to Eton, I also think it's not Hunt's fault where he went. The important thing is the lessons people learn - if Hunt's experience has helped show him that making the narrowly-focused private schools into charities is an eccentricity that we can't afford, that's fine.

  • Options
    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TGOHF said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Funding crisis leaves Newcastle facing ‘impossible cuts’ and social unrest

    Leader of city council says ‘embers of unrest are starting to smoulder’ with many authorities on brink of financial collapse

    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/nov/24/funding-crisis-newcastle-impossible-cuts-social-unrest

    Time to sack some diversity coordinators ?
    We need to abolish local government.

    Think of the efficiency savings.
    Sunil will agree: we need regional governors.
    A Directly Elected Dictator of the United Kingdom will appoint regional governors to run the provinces.

    Scotland will be special, and have a Viceroy.

    Mark Thatcher.
    Sir Mark Thatcher; unless of course he is made, let us say, Duke of Barlinnie to endear him further to his subjects.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,097
    NH Primary

    PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE – GOP PRIMARY (Bloomberg/St. Anselm)
    Mitt Romney 30%
    Rand Paul 11%
    Chris Christie 9%
    Jeb Bush 8%
    Ben Carson 6%
    Mike Huckabee 5%
    Paul Ryan 5%
    Ted Cruz 5%
    Bobby Jindal 3%
    Rick Perry 2%

    PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE Democratic Primary (Bloomberg/St. Anselm)
    Hillary Clinton 62%
    Elizabeth Warren 13%
    Bernie Sanders 6%
    Joe Biden 5%
    Deval Patrick 2%
    Martin O’Malley 1%

    PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE (Bloomberg/St. Anselm)
    Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
    Mitt Romney (R) 45%

    Hillary Clinton (D) 47%
    Jeb Bush (R) 39%

    Hillary Clinton (D) 48%
    Rand Paul (R) 41%

    http://www.businessweek.com/pdfs/bloomberg-saint-anselm-purple-NH-survey-Q1-to-Q9-11-2014.pdf
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