politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Both Tories and UKIP go for the tactical vote in their final push in Rochester
conservative @KellyTolhurst appeals to greens/lab/libs: "if you don't want a UKIP MP on Friday, I hope you can support me" #tactical #RSVote
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Interested to see how the 'others' pan out...
The blue team are going to struggle with that
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/steerpike/2014/09/angry-daves-jibe-at-fat-arse-reckless/ Working out well so far.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/11/baroness-warsi-uses-her-retirement-to-provoke-british-jews/
Re: PB Rochester & Strood competition.
A total of 423 PB regulars and lurkers took part in last weeks competition with the vast majority, 338/85 predicting an UKiP win by an average margin of 10.56%.- How close will the ‘wisdom of the crowd’ be on this occasion?
For the summary/results and a memory recap of how you voted, use the link provided below.
http://www.nojam.com/demo/pbrochester/summary.php?b=0
Shapps doesn't think so
A former Tory foreign minister was rebuked by her party chairman after comparing the deaths of four people in a synagogue in Israel to protests at the Al Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem.
Baroness Warsi, who resigned in August over the government’s policy on Gaza, tweeted: ‘Israeli extremists storm Al Aqsa & intimidate worshippers – Palestinian extremists storm synagogue & kill 4 worshippers.’
Her comments sparked claims that she was comparing protests at a mosque to the murderous attack by two Palestinians armed with a gun and axe.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2839666/Warsi-slapped-Tories-comparing-deaths-Israel-synagogue-protests-Jerusalem-mosque.html
A former Tory foreign minister was rebuked by her party chairman after comparing the deaths of four people in a synagogue in Israel to protests at the Al Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem.
Baroness Warsi, who resigned in August over the government’s policy on Gaza, tweeted: ‘Israeli extremists storm Al Aqsa & intimidate worshippers – Palestinian extremists storm synagogue & kill 4 worshippers.’
Her comments sparked claims that she was comparing protests at a mosque to the murderous attack by two Palestinians armed with a gun and axe.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2839666/Warsi-slapped-Tories-comparing-deaths-Israel-synagogue-protests-Jerusalem-mosque.html
You don't need to take Shapps's word for anything, just read the actual tweet. It doesn't say what Spectator crazy person says it does.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2839599/I-ll-impose-mansion-tax-Pure-Simple-Miliband-mocks-singer-Myleene-Klass-clashing-Labour-plans-target-rich.html
Get monstered by a 'dumb' celeb. After being monstered his big idea is to get into print and get all his followers to do the equivalent of 'thinking of something really clever to say' AFTERWARDS.
So instead of letting it pass, it's front page news for days. Klass.
We better hope those Russian banks dont win their lawsuits on EU sanctions...
She was criticized for this tweet
https://twitter.com/SayeedaWarsi/status/534626779122892800
Which implies equivalence between two acts, despite one being a protest, and the other a multiple homicide of people at prayer.
In touch with concerns of ordinary people: 20 (+4)
Honest: 17 (+3)
Sticks to what he believes in: 16 (+3)
I reckon she's implying a causal relationship between the two.
If this, and Mike's leader, is right then it hands the Conservatives an explanation on Friday.
'Earthquake' is an over-used word. I don't think this will do anything of the sort, unless there are further defections. If there aren't then this will be forgotten within a week.
I deny that holding a protest is 'equivalent' to murdering people.
For those who occasionally think I cheerlead for the Tories, remember I went UKIP by 11%. What I want and what I think aren't connected in political punting.
She doesn't actually make any link between the two statements in her tweet, just states one after the other.
She could be implying that Palestinian extremists are murdering bastards, while Israeli ones are just feeble intimidators. I know she's not implying that, but it could just as validly be inferred.
From her other tweets I think it's quite clear that she's implying that the intimidation by the Israelis was the cause of the killing by the Palestinians. That doesn't mean, either, that she's implying that the intimidation justified the killings.
No doubt she should have been more careful to make sure that nobody could infer from her tweet that she thought the two were equivalent, but do you really believe that she thinks a protest and murder are equal crimes?
The Cameroons believed the Tories were toxic because they were too focused on right wing things like immigration and the EU and had to become more social democratic in order to win votes from the centre. The Cameroons critics have said that the Tories problems was they were toxic because they were seen as too focused on the rich and not standing up for the man on the street on issues they are concerned about like crime and immigration.
If left-wing voters tactically vote for UKIP over the Conservatives, it pretty much shows that the latter strategy is the more sensible one, and that the entire Cameroon project has been a mistake.
I'm very critical of the actions of Israel, but I think that Tweet does say - or at least imply - what the Spectator person says it does. Warsi is throwing up her hands at both sides for being "extremist", when clearly the actions of one group she's talking about are nothing like the actions of the other.
Try looking up 'linking' in Google, it might help your understanding.
1) The Labour voters might just be being partisan and supporting their main enemy's enemy, rather than it being anything to do with Cameron's positioning.
2) This is one particular constituency which main not be typical, and a by-election which will have different dynamics from the general election, which is what the Tories need to optimize for.
The specific claim was that she said that She doesn't say that or imply that, or anything like it. The "morally equivalent" part was made up by the Spectator writer.
"The British want to stop free movement of labour. The French want to stop free movement of capital."
"Neo-Nazis hate Jews. Labour hate bankers."
"The Americans invaded Iraq. The Russians invaded Ukraine."
In all cases you're deliberately using similar language to imply the crux of the two situations are similar.
Linking: connecting or joining something to something else.
Which is what she did.
Off to work.
My guess, based on her other tweets, is that she thinks that the protest by the Israelis was the cause of the murder by the Palestinians.
Your guess seems to be that she thinks that annoying Muslims with a protest is near enough equally bad to be worthy of labelling it equivalent to murdering Israelis.
That or you hate Warsi so will wilfully misinterpret her.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2839599/I-ll-impose-mansion-tax-Pure-Simple-Miliband-mocks-singer-Myleene-Klass-clashing-Labour-plans-target-rich.html
The cry of the racist down the ages.....
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2840189/Ukip-candidate-jeered-hinting-EU-arrivals-repatriated.html
There is no claim to ‘moral equivalence’ here, just a fear that if there are further reprisals it could lead to another war.
Not that I have ever had much luck with lucky dips.
Ukip parliamentary candidate Mark Reckless has caused outrage by suggesting migrants who have lived here for several years could be repatriated. The former Tory, on course to win the Eurosceptic party’s second seat tomorrow, said if Britain left the European Union they should only be able to stay for a ‘fixed period’. Asked if his party would want to deport a plumber from Poland who owned a home and had children at local schools he did not rule it out, but said this would be a case ‘we would look sympathetically at’.
Former home office minister Damian Green said Mr Reckless had come ‘perilously close’ to a policy of repatriation and insisted his remarks were ‘totally unacceptable’.
Except that's EXACTLY what Damian Green has endorsed for non-EU migrants. Here's one case:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-29742967
How did you know about my hair?
And don't most Lib Dems compensate with facial hair, the women especially?
BTW I guess you're thinking of immigration, but that's not the only issue here - for example another one you probably follow is getting ISPs to censor the internet.
His remarks were met with jeers and the Labour candidate, PR consultant Naushabah Khan, whose father came from Pakistan in the 1980s and whose mother is Kenyan Asian, said: ‘Where would you stop Mark? My family are migrants, are we going to say they need to go back as well?’
Yes, having a visa system that allows foreign nationals to stay for a fixed time period before being required to return to their home nation is just like deporting British nationals. Is she up in arms every time someone gets to the end of their visa and doesn't qualify for another one?
Seriously, how thick are Labour and Conservtive politicians these days? Their lack of logic is so gaping, I'm amazed they can string a sentence together.
I'll let the PB commentariat decide!
"Labour's tabloid pandering is going beyond the trivial and harmless and getting hard to distinguish from the Tories,"
I think you're right. If what I heard yesterday on immigrant bashing turns out to be more than one person going off piste I'll probably waste my vote on the Greens who I have little time for but at least aren't part of the group grovelling in the gutter for the votes of Mail and Sun readers. Unfortunately too many Lib Dems have soiled themselves for ministerial trappings for my taste
You can always reconsider his application in May 2015, assuming he's not moved elsewhere by then.... why not see if he does or does not by resting him on the bench for a few months?
*small financial interest in outcome.
How do they get to a point that their vote is so squeezed in a seat that they held only 4 years ago? How did they become so irrelevant to our political discourse? If I was a Labour MP in southern or eastern England with a smallish majority I would be seriously worried.
Unlike the Scots MPs who are much closer to actual despair. As usual Labour have proved incapable of organising anything, let alone a coup, but you can understand the grumbling.
Hopefully Lord Ashcroft will do an exit poll. It would be interesting to know how many Labour voters do plump for the Tories
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rochester_and_Strood_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
It really makes the idea that the Commons controls the finances of the government let alone the country look ridiculous. They would be better continuing to pretend not to notice how they were side lined.
The reply you are referring to is further down thread in response to another poster.
In the context of what you wrote my 'response' makes no sense.
You'll have to ask Mr Smithson what's up. I think I will change my password.
I see Labour and the Conservatives are now dancing to the Ukip tune yet still trying to differentiate themselves by accusing Ukip of being more extreme than they are. They should take it as a compliment.
Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, or is it - if you can't beat them, join them?
Sam Coates Times retweeted
Robin Brant@robindbrant·4 mins4 minutes ago
.@ukip 'clarifies' comments from @MarkReckless at debate last night when he appeared to say migrants should be repatriated if UK leaves EU
When is Home Secretary Theresa May going to take action against the South Yorkshire police after the widespread media reports of their collaboration with child rapists.
When is Childrens Minister Edward Timpson going to place Rotherham's Childrens Services into special measures.
What action is Policing Minister Mike Penning taking to ensure that the police's much hyped 'day of reckoning' with its 'wave after wave of arrests' takes place.
How much did the locally well connected former Communities Minister Sayeeda Warsi know about what was happening and what did she chose to do about it.
Why has Prime Minister David Cameron shown no interest despite his emphasis on 'Broken Britain' whilst Leader of the Opposition.
Would Labour want a tactical vote for, or against, the blues? It would harm the Conservatives to lose Rochester, after all. Longer term, such a victory risks feeding the UKIP dragon.
Can you investigate Socrates complaint down thread where I appear to have replied to him.
The original reply was to another poster before 8:00, the reply to Socrates was after 8:00 and I wasn't even at my computer, I think. It is either an error in the commenting system or someone has used my login.
If it is someone using my profile I would appreciate you letting me know.
The things people say about UKIP beggar belief sometimes. I can't work out if the people banging on about such things are deliberately manufacturing outrage, or are just really just that stupid.
My heart sinks at the prospect of the pig-dog MP. Tollhurst seems as bad.
The actual emphasis of his point was that a transitional grace period would be needed, as we move EU migrants into the system of non-EU migrants.
My least favourite candidate is the Tory. My favourite candidate is the Labour one followed by Reckless.
The Labour girl has no chance and her party are getting a bit whiffy on immigrants but Reckless's party are led by a fascist. The Green and Lib Dem candidates looked like they won their canditure in a raffle so a pointless vote for pointless candidates.
So it's Reckless or Labour.... I'd like to see the Labour candidate progress personally which a big vote might do but Recklass would make sure the Tory candidate (the like of whom I haven't seen before) never saw the light of day ......
Difficult decision. I'd decide when I got into the polling booth
The supporters of other parties just seem to embrace their inner imbecile when it comes to UKIP.
And that line is steadily advancing northwestwards.
But it does mean that Labour MPs in Luton, Oxford and Slough are safe and that Labour will make gains in outer London.
Jerusalem's non Jews are being ethnically cleansed, if they don't make a stand now then there won't be another chance to. Building settlements in the proposed future capital of a Palestinian state shows the seriousness of the Jewish state's attitude to a peaceful settlement and indicates the ultimate fate that will befall the indigenous people.
It doesn't make sense because after the first reply I went to get ready for work, am now at a different PC ('at work') and saw Socrates reply to me. I have changed my password.
Absolute bollocks. I know and work with white working class and middle class, private sector Labour voters. They all live in the south-east of England.
"Reckless's party are led by a fascist"
Superb.
Your obvious vote is for the SWP. If they aren't standing, you'll have to vote Labour like the other "Trots". Yes, I know that's silly hyperbole, but you started it.
@JohnRentoul: Morten Morland in The Times today http://t.co/KejstrNRol
The Tories have become utterly shameless in aping Labour's 1990 tactics of screaming racist. They're even screaming it at the same sort of policies they themselves back and expand.
Presumably Patrick Wintour has been confused by UKIP wording. There's been no "reversion".
"Reckless's party are led by a fascist."
In the spirit of comradely and mutual aid, may I suggest ...
"Reckless's party are led by a fascist running pig dog to the Capitalist hyena."