35 LibDems! Hmm...a party that gets well below 10% in the polls is going to have to rely on some desperate hopes for local / candidate based success. Personally I think they're going to get obliterated.
Patrick - out of interest, what's your definition of "obliterated"?
10 MPs or less.
Wow! ...... thanks for that.
I mean it. Even the likes of Vince Cable in Twickenham are desperately vulnerable. The yellows have destroyed their USP. They could have got energetically behind a Great Repeal Act. They could have been helpful engaging partners in government. They could have sought to replace Labour as the voice of the centre left. Instead they decided to become an internal opposition within the government and to lie and dissemble at every opportunity. Look at the 'deal' of AV referendum vs boundaries. Scum. They simply cannot be trusted by ANY coalition partner. What is the point of voting LibDem? What are they for? Who are they for? A vacuous pointless party that will get flushed away like a persistent floating turd.
As I suggested yesterday, the LDs problem is that a) they aren't liberal and b) they are bracketed by the Conservatives and Labour who both increasingly are liberal. Its not surprising they are having problems. Orange bookers find they are actually pretty similar to wet tories, Red LDs start to notice that Labour is sounding more liberal than the liberals, and the NOTA vote notices that the LDs sound like a party of government and starts to edge towards Farage or the greens depending on their other preferences.
When Mr Oaten was touting his 'Coalition' book before the 2010 election, he said historically UK coalitions had always been a disaster for the junior partner.
Mr. Dave, does remind me of the story of a German doctor in Afghanistan about 10 years ago, who (knowing the reference, and for comic effect) told a wounded British soldier that "for you, Tommy, ze var iz over."
'Unfortunately Ed's lot is that the right has made bullying him legitimate, but he can't be seen to hit back. A fondness for outright Tom Brown style bullying is one of the more unattractive features of our right.'
Ed gets bullied Tom Brown style by a 33 year old woman.
The main person responsible for Labours drop in the polls is Johann Lamont. It was her speech saying that Labour were no longer a Scottish party and are run from London, that triggered the change.
If Labour don't win the election in 2015, because of lost seats in Scotland, they can point to Lamont. If she had a problem leading the party in Scotland, perhaps she should have stood down way before the referendum campaign.
The way forward for Labour is to have a separate party in Scotland, with a slightly different range of policies. It would appear that the electorate in Scotland are further to the left than those in England, so they have to be able to offer something different to Labour in England. They can't do this is time for May 2015, but they should announce the direction of travel.
FPT. Take Jim Murphy and his Hundred Streets tour for the No campaign during the Indy Ref, it got so much attention that it attracted the kind of Yes abuse that saw him have to briefly halt it for safety reasons. But Murphy probable did far more to reach out to Scottish voters than Miliband has done in four years, and more importantly its why he will probable win the Scottish Leadership contest despite the opposition of the Unions! And that is going to be a huge loss to the Westminster Labour party. I admit it, I have been an admirer of Murphy as a politician since before he became Scottish Secretary under Brown in the last Labour Government. Jim Murphy ran a very successful 2010 GE campaign up here as Scottish Secretary, he wasn't utilised at all by Miliband during the Scottish Elections a year later.
But having watched Miliband on The Agenda last tonight, it struck me yet again just how underrated Murphy remains amongst Labour supporters UK wide. He has always had a much higher media profile at election times up here in Scotland, and he would have been so much better than Miliband connecting with the voter on the street tonight on The Agenda. Seen him do this quite regularly, and also Ruth Davidson very effectively over the last year a two. Despite the current Scots Polls, Sturgeon ain't no Salmond, Murphy or Davidson.....her performances are so contrived as to be painful if she isn't parked in front of an adoring SNP audiences clapping and cheering at her now tired and clichéd sound bites.
"Labour's problem in Scotland is Ed. We Scots saw him during the referendum campaign and it was truly embarrassing. In fact BT ultimately had to hide him away cancelling events which were not helping"
If you're right and I think you might be then it's unlikely Murphy is going to make much of a difference. Only Brown could make really make the Scots forget that Ed leads Labour UK and he's not standing. A pretty bleak outlook
...but not as funny as watching Useless Ed get monstered by Mylene Klass!
...what an utter chocolate teapot that man is...
Unfortunately Ed's lot is that the right has made bullying him legitimate, but he can't be seen to hit back. A fondness for outright Tom Brown style bullying is one of the more unattractive features of our right.
C List celebrity runs rings around Ed the Dud, and that's 'bullying'? How weak.
Good morning all and on thread, if you want to see where the main ground war between Labour and the SNP is taking place, look at the breakdown of the IndyRef results.
Dundee has always been the main battleground and Dundee West must be among the most vulnerable Labour seats. It is one the SNP has never quite been able to take. Glasgow, Dunbartonshire and North Lanarkshire among them contain almost 1/3 of Labour's Scottish seats and were the 3 hitherto Labour rotten burghs which voted YES.
The Tory campaign in the IndyRef was heavily concentrated on former Tory areas pre 1987 and they voted heavily NO. The entire South of Scotland, the leafier Edinburgh seats, Aberdeenshire, Stirling and indeed several counties currently represented by SNP MPs all saw 55-60+% NO.
The turnout at the general election will not be 83% across Scotland. There are several seats where it should once more be comfortably above 70%. We know which voters tend to vote at elections as opposed to just say they will.
All sense suggests Jim Murphy should win the SLAB leadership but Neil Findlay has announced a 1970s leftie mandate with renationalisation and kicking out Trident at the heart of it. We will soon see whether the typical SLAB member votes with head or heart. It pretty much looks like the union 33% is going to Findlay and the parliamentarians 33% mostly going to Murphy. That means it will be the CLP comrades who determine the outcome of the SLAB leadership election and it must harm Murphy to be seen as the London candidate.
Meanwhile Nat watchers are waiting to see what sort of government FM Nippy Sweetie chooses. There are a number of prominent Tartan Tories who sit for rural constituencies and many of us expect her to replace them. If she doesn't then maybe she does intend to try and run Scotland for the interests of all, in spite of her "politics of envy" rhetoric.
Neither MP seems to have done much for their local NHS despite being in government for four years.
I think you overstate an MPs influence on anything. They have a good bully-pulpit, they can usually get stuff in the local papers, they can get access to talk to people, but what can they actually make happen unless they happen to be ministers ?
Someone called @gosbornegenius on Twitter keeps posting a link to this article which says it wasn't the London Challenge that was responsible for good school results in the capital, but the large amount of BAME children
My last ever argument with tim was over this... And it looks as though I was right all along... Nice one gosbornegenius!
"The findings cast doubt over claims from the previous government and teachers’ leaders that Labour’s flagship “London Challenge” programme – extra funding to promote collaborative working between schools – was the main reason for improved results in the capital. Prof Burgess said: “My interpretation of these results leads to a focus on pupil aspiration, ambition and engagement. There is nothing inherently different in the ability of pupils from different ethnic backgrounds, but the children of relatively recent immigrants typically have greater hopes and expectations of education, and are, on average, more likely to be engaged with their school work."
On topic, this is the fifth Scottish poll since the referendum and it's pretty clear from that series that it's the Mori one that's out. It's also pretty clear that the massive Lab-SNP swing since 2010 that many of us had picked up in the subsamples is both real and enduring.
Will it subside before the election? Probably yes, to some extent. Sturgeon is in her honeymoon period (though that may last more than 6 months), the SNP get less coverage in a UKGE, Labour will play the stop-the-Tories card strongly (though with the SNP moving left, it's debateable how effective that will be), and the referendum-dominated landscape will fade to a GE-inclined one. That said, I'd be amazed if Labour retake the lead, and that must mean major SNP gains. Simply level pegging represents a net swing of more than 11% since 2010 and that's enough to bring Labour's seats into play - what's more, because Labour had built up a decent 'moat' on an efficiently-spread vote, once a few seats come into play, a lot do.
One quick final point: the SNP surge does help the Tories in absolute terms as well as net ones. There will be a few seats, in the Borders and Edinburgh, for example), where the SNP taking votes from Labour could help the Tories come through the middle.
When the dust settles it will be inereseting to see if Sturgeon's push to the left pushes some of the right wing scots back towards the conservatives.
Alan, don't be silly , whilst the "Scottish" Tories are London sock puppets they have no hope. It is all one way and its to SNP.
The way forward for Labour is to have a separate party in Scotland, with a slightly different range of policies. It would appear that the electorate in Scotland are further to the left than those in England, so they have to be able to offer something different to Labour in England. They can't do this is time for May 2015, but they should announce the direction of travel.
Would this mean that SLAB would not take the party whip, and potentially would vote against policies of LAB in parliament? Sounds like potential for a LAB/SLAB coalition to me ;-)
Easteross, Jim Murphy appears to be getting a lot of backing from CLP's in the last few days. And having Blair McDougall on board as part of his campaign team will also give him an edge over his opponents. Scotsman - Blair McDougall lands Jim Murphy advisor role
Good morning all and on thread, if you want to see where the main ground war between Labour and the SNP is taking place, look at the breakdown of the IndyRef results.
Dundee has always been the main battleground and Dundee West must be among the most vulnerable Labour seats. It is one the SNP has never quite been able to take. Glasgow, Dunbartonshire and North Lanarkshire among them contain almost 1/3 of Labour's Scottish seats and were the 3 hitherto Labour rotten burghs which voted YES.
The Tory campaign in the IndyRef was heavily concentrated on former Tory areas pre 1987 and they voted heavily NO. The entire South of Scotland, the leafier Edinburgh seats, Aberdeenshire, Stirling and indeed several counties currently represented by SNP MPs all saw 55-60+% NO.
The turnout at the general election will not be 83% across Scotland. There are several seats where it should once more be comfortably above 70%. We know which voters tend to vote at elections as opposed to just say they will.
All sense suggests Jim Murphy should win the SLAB leadership but Neil Findlay has announced a 1970s leftie mandate with renationalisation and kicking out Trident at the heart of it. We will soon see whether the typical SLAB member votes with head or heart. It pretty much looks like the union 33% is going to Findlay and the parliamentarians 33% mostly going to Murphy. That means it will be the CLP comrades who determine the outcome of the SLAB leadership election and it must harm Murphy to be seen as the London candidate.
Meanwhile Nat watchers are waiting to see what sort of government FM Nippy Sweetie chooses. There are a number of prominent Tartan Tories who sit for rural constituencies and many of us expect her to replace them. If she doesn't then maybe she does intend to try and run Scotland for the interests of all, in spite of her "politics of envy" rhetoric.
We Tories are not doing our best to help Danny out locally. We have a Morayshire farmer Edward Mountain as PPC and he is working very hard to boost the Tory vote.
As we know from The Hitchiker's Guide to the Galaxy the answer is 42.
Given that, in spite of the massive increased turnout, and many Labour voters saying Yes, while a significant number of SNP voters said No, the answer was 45% SNP for Holyrood and 45% Yes, I suggest the SNP vote in May may well be 45%.
Certainly I am hearing that Yes voters are in vast majority intending to vote SNP emboldened, among other thoughts, by the belief that a hung parliament is coming and the SNP would be more effective representatives for them than the usual lumpen, lobby fodder labourites.
Ultimately, as I suggested a few years ago, it is very likely eventually, GEs in Scotland will become Unionist v Nationalist in many Scottish constituencies, I expect that in May 2015 only the Yes side will be properly set up that way, whereas the No side will remain much more divided. Hence, lots of SNP gains.
Will Scottish righties (yes they do exist) in seats where the Tories have absolutely no hope whatever vote tactically for SNP? That'd be funny.
Its not funny, it has been happening for the best part of 20 years. Unfortunately for the tories the list of seats where they had no hope got catastrophically long.
I have some friends who are of a generally rightish hue who have consistently voted SNP in the past as the opposition to Labour. When that was the choice in a Scottish election I could just about understand it although I was never tempted myself.
I very much hope that these people got a wake up call in the referendum. There is some evidence they have. Ipsos Mori apart the tory support is drifting upwards on the back of it.
As I said the other day I am above all a Unionist and may even bring myself to vote for a muppet and indirectly Ed to resist the SNP. I may not be typical but I do think the Unionist cause seriously needs to get its act together as this poll once again shows.
Ha Ha Ha , yes they got a real wake up David , hence the surge to SNP. It will not be stopping soon either. The sock puppets up here are done for.
Neither MP seems to have done much for their local NHS despite being in government for four years.
I think you overstate an MPs influence on anything. They have a good bully-pulpit, they can usually get stuff in the local papers, they can get access to talk to people, but what can they actually make happen unless they happen to be ministers ?
Both have made local NHS services a big part of their campaigns. If they cannot do anything about them, then why have they put the NHS in the centre of their literature?
I do hope they are not copying big party cynicism!
...but not as funny as watching Useless Ed get monstered by Mylene Klass!
...what an utter chocolate teapot that man is...
Unfortunately Ed's lot is that the right has made bullying him legitimate, but he can't be seen to hit back. A fondness for outright Tom Brown style bullying is one of the more unattractive features of our right.
C List celebrity runs rings around Ed the Dud, and that's 'bullying'? How weak.
I was idly wondering how far you would have to go down the celeb list before you found someone Ed could win the intellectual argument against. Joey Essex? Maybe Jedward?
Being married to a Scot, having lived in Scotland before moving to Wales 45 years ago, and with a large Scottish family in the North of Scotland, I can say with a certainty that the posters on here who think this is a protest vote and all will return to normal in May 2015 simply do not understand the sea change in opinion in "Gods own people' and the only real question in Scotland is not the demise of Scot labour but who is going to fill the centre right.
At appears to the outsider that SLAB and SNP are engaged in a race to the left at the moment, its it going to become the case fairly shortly that there will be a vacant position in the middle ground, never mind the centre right ?
SNP are centre left , Labour are right wing playing at being lefties. There is no race by SNP , they are for social justice not just spouting lies and lining their own pockets like Labour.
I note that the long campaign starts on 19 December. This means that there are both constituency spending limits and national spending limits with effect from that date. I think that this is new this time round.
So parties are spending money now before the limits come in.
Is this having much impact?
Lots and lots of direct mail from the Tories. I think it's hit diminishing returns ("Oh, it's just them again, where's the bin?"), making it harder to get any specific new message over, but you may think that professional optimism.
Presumably lots of phone canvassing too, though we're not noticing so much of that.
Hmm. So you're noticing stuff you think the voters don't like and not noticing any of the canvassing that you'd prefer to think wasn't happening?
Sorry Nick, I take your posts on Broxtowe on here with a fairly sizeable handful of salt.
I also wonder how many Broxtowe constituents who watch the TV news and see their Tory MP Anna Soubry sitting at David Cameron's side on the front bench while he delivers a statement will contrast that in their minds with NPXMP who never made it off the back benches. In 4 years she has made it to Minister of State and been the first female Defence minister. Like Esther McVey she is a good media performer and clearly has influence.
There is very little evidence that England has a majority centre right electorate. On issues like ownership of utilities, railway nationalisation, socialised medicine, state education and so on the English electorate leans left. Just look at the views UKIP voters tell pollsters they have. They are socially conservative, yes, and they dislike immigration - but beyond that it's pretty mainstream left-wing thinking:
I think you are misreading the position (although admittedly there's no firm evidence I can point to, so it's just a hunch!).
I think the English are fundamentally practical and aren't really concerned about theoretical constructs. The sort of polls you are referring to are "do you like privatisation or would you prefer nationalisation". The vote is not a positive one for nationalisation, but more a reaction to the evident failings of badly constructed privatisation.
I suspect that if you could develop mutuals / community owned structures / partnerships, etc that worked the English would be very happy with that. It's not particularly "left" or "right" wing (although I'd say it could be construed as being conservative in a small C sense)
The main person responsible for Labours drop in the polls is Johann Lamont. It was her speech saying that Labour were no longer a Scottish party and are run from London, that triggered the change.
If Labour don't win the election in 2015, because of lost seats in Scotland, they can point to Lamont. If she had a problem leading the party in Scotland, perhaps she should have stood down way before the referendum campaign.
The way forward for Labour is to have a separate party in Scotland, with a slightly different range of policies. It would appear that the electorate in Scotland are further to the left than those in England, so they have to be able to offer something different to Labour in England. They can't do this is time for May 2015, but they should announce the direction of travel.
absolute bollocks, she only spoke the truth and that is the reason why they are done for. Lamont was just another sock puppet.
FPT. Take Jim Murphy and his Hundred Streets tour for the No campaign during the Indy Ref, it got so much attention that it attracted the kind of Yes abuse that saw him have to briefly halt it for safety reasons. But Murphy probable did far more to reach out to Scottish voters than Miliband has done in four years, and more importantly its why he will probable win the Scottish Leadership contest despite the opposition of the Unions! And that is going to be a huge loss to the Westminster Labour party. I admit it, I have been an admirer of Murphy as a politician since before he became Scottish Secretary under Brown in the last Labour Government. Jim Murphy ran a very successful 2010 GE campaign up here as Scottish Secretary, he wasn't utilised at all by Miliband during the Scottish Elections a year later.
But having watched Miliband on The Agenda last tonight, it struck me yet again just how underrated Murphy remains amongst Labour supporters UK wide. He has always had a much higher media profile at election times up here in Scotland, and he would have been so much better than Miliband connecting with the voter on the street tonight on The Agenda. Seen him do this quite regularly, and also Ruth Davidson very effectively over the last year a two. Despite the current Scots Polls, Sturgeon ain't no Salmond, Murphy or Davidson.....her performances are so contrived as to be painful if she isn't parked in front of an adoring SNP audiences clapping and cheering at her now tired and clichéd sound bites.
"Labour's problem in Scotland is Ed. We Scots saw him during the referendum campaign and it was truly embarrassing. In fact BT ultimately had to hide him away cancelling events which were not helping"
If you're right and I think you might be then it's unlikely Murphy is going to make much of a difference. Only Brown could make really make the Scots forget that Ed leads Labour UK and he's not standing. A pretty bleak outlook
You seem to live in a parallel Tory universe. Barking.
Neither MP seems to have done much for their local NHS despite being in government for four years.
I think you overstate an MPs influence on anything. They have a good bully-pulpit, they can usually get stuff in the local papers, they can get access to talk to people, but what can they actually make happen unless they happen to be ministers ?
Both have made local NHS services a big part of their campaigns. If they cannot do anything about them, then why have they put the NHS in the centre of their literature?
I do hope they are not copying big party cynicism!
Carswell is not the MP for Colchester, why do you connect him? One thing he has done is oppose 12,000 houses being built in Clacton for London overspill, so that's 20,000 plus people the local NHS don't have to deal with
Now someone needs to do the same in Havering, where it seems hospitals are closed to ensure the population rises
We Tories are not doing our best to help Danny out locally. We have a Morayshire farmer Edward Mountain as PPC and he is working very hard to boost the Tory vote.
Hopefully he goes down big time, lost deposit would be lovely
Being married to a Scot, having lived in Scotland before moving to Wales 45 years ago, and with a large Scottish family in the North of Scotland, I can say with a certainty that the posters on here who think this is a protest vote and all will return to normal in May 2015 simply do not understand the sea change in opinion in "Gods own people' and the only real question in Scotland is not the demise of Scot labour but who is going to fill the centre right.
At appears to the outsider that SLAB and SNP are engaged in a race to the left at the moment, its it going to become the case fairly shortly that there will be a vacant position in the middle ground, never mind the centre right ?
SNP are centre left , Labour are right wing playing at being lefties. There is no race by SNP , they are for social justice not just spouting lies and lining their own pockets like Labour.
Malcolm the leadership of the SNP is talking up the politics of envy and hate. They are demonising almost 20% of the electorate. Some of the policies being talked about e.g. land reform belong in pre-Revolutionary Russia. They are now dominated by Central Belt urban politicians who have no idea how the rural economy operates. If you want to see the effect of this rhetoric on your 45 numpties, just look at Twitter where the hate is palpable. I for one now feel like a threatened stranger in my own country, often frightened to open my mouth and offer an opinion for fear of threats and aggression.
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Change from 2nd September Projection) :
Con 310 (+3) .. Lab 264 (-13) .. LibDem 30 (-2) .. SNP 20 (+12) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 16 seats short of a majority ......................................................................................
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - Likely Con Hold (From TCTC) Pudsey - TCTC Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain Warwickshire North - Likely Lab Gain Cambridge - Likely LibDem Hold Ipswich - TCTC Watford - Likely LibDem Gain (From TCTC) Croydon Central - Likely Con Hold Enfield - TCTC Cornwall North - TCTC Great Yarmouth - Con Hold Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold Ochill and South Perthshire - Likely SNP Gain (From Likely Lab Hold)
Changes From 02 Sep - Bury North moves from TCTC to Likely Con Hold. Watford moves from TCTC to Likely LibDem Gain. Ochill and South Perthshire moves from Likely Lab Hold to Likely SNP Gain
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes Gain/Hold - Over 2500 .......................................................................................
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division JNN - Jacobite News Network ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
Being married to a Scot, having lived in Scotland before moving to Wales 45 years ago, and with a large Scottish family in the North of Scotland, I can say with a certainty that the posters on here who think this is a protest vote and all will return to normal in May 2015 simply do not understand the sea change in opinion in "Gods own people' and the only real question in Scotland is not the demise of Scot labour but who is going to fill the centre right.
At appears to the outsider that SLAB and SNP are engaged in a race to the left at the moment, its it going to become the case fairly shortly that there will be a vacant position in the middle ground, never mind the centre right ?
SNP are centre left , Labour are right wing playing at being lefties. There is no race by SNP , they are for social justice not just spouting lies and lining their own pockets like Labour.
Malcolm the leadership of the SNP is talking up the politics of envy and hate. They are demonising almost 20% of the electorate. Some of the policies being talked about e.g. land reform belong in pre-Revolutionary Russia. They are now dominated by Central Belt urban politicians who have no idea how the rural economy operates. If you want to see the effect of this rhetoric on your 45 numpties, just look at Twitter where the hate is palpable. I for one now feel like a threatened stranger in my own country, often frightened to open my mouth and offer an opinion for fear of threats and aggression.
Easterross, compared to 40 labour numpties in Westminster they are a breath of fresh air. I am no expert in land ownership but given a handful of establishment lackeys and a few foreigners own the majority of the land in Scotland, is a clear sign something is far wrong and that someone needs to look at it and bring it out of the 17th/18th century patronage era. Some things are just plain wrong. We badly need a more inclusive society, a small percentage of people cannot just keep taking everything.
35 LibDems! Hmm...a party that gets well below 10% in the polls is going to have to rely on some desperate hopes for local / candidate based success. Personally I think they're going to get obliterated.
We have had three polls in a row, all of which show the SNP far ahead of Labour. Is this a blip? Possibly, but at current polling levels Labour would be massacred in Scotland by the SNP. The constituency prices do not yet reflect that, but they will. Backing the SNP on the constituency markets looks a marked decision.
NB Ignore uniform national swing calculations. The mathematics behind them simply don't work for the Lib Dems when they've mislaid two thirds of their support (unless you believe that they can get negative votes in half the constituencies in Scotland) and they are implausible for the SNP when their support has more than doubled since the last Westminster election and there is every reason to believe that they have put that support on disproportionately in areas that voted Yes.
The most oppressive group think I've ever experienced was at art school - no room for original thought there, just The Young Ones and right-on. And lecturers who spouted endlessly about their Leftish politics in the same breath as Caravaggio.
Painfully narrow-minded for a place of supposed creativity.
...but not as funny as watching Useless Ed get monstered by Mylene Klass!
...what an utter chocolate teapot that man is...
Unfortunately Ed's lot is that the right has made bullying him legitimate, but he can't be seen to hit back. A fondness for outright Tom Brown style bullying is one of the more unattractive features of our right.
Laugh a minute. What about the poor schmuck scientist bullied by the left over a 'sexist' shirt made for him by a woman!
Labour and bullying are synonyms, if you don't submit they have you sacked or jailed over the most trivial rubbish.
Latest Stuart Dickson 2014 Scottish Independence PB Contribution Since September 18th :
2 months
It's safe to come out now Stuey baby..
Seriously though - this is not a Labour slump it's an SNP SURGE - ever since that fat buffoon loser Salmond quit - must have been holding them back.
LOL, the crackers are up early today
But its a double whammy - Labour ditch a female leader and the SNP install one (of sorts). Con vote solid behind Ruth. LDs with their stale pale male are nowhere.
I note that the long campaign starts on 19 December. This means that there are both constituency spending limits and national spending limits with effect from that date. I think that this is new this time round.
So parties are spending money now before the limits come in.
Is this having much impact?
Lots and lots of direct mail from the Tories. I think it's hit diminishing returns ("Oh, it's just them again, where's the bin?"), making it harder to get any specific new message over, but you may think that professional optimism.
Presumably lots of phone canvassing too, though we're not noticing so much of that.
Hmm. So you're noticing stuff you think the voters don't like and not noticing any of the canvassing that you'd prefer to think wasn't happening?
Sorry Nick, I take your posts on Broxtowe on here with a fairly sizeable handful of salt.
Well the Ashcroft Broxtowe poll had Nick winning by a sizeable margin. Interesting that to the first standard VI question in Broxtowe Nick has 7% lead. To the 2nd seat related one that moves to 9%.
35 LibDems! Hmm...a party that gets well below 10% in the polls is going to have to rely on some desperate hopes for local / candidate based success. Personally I think they're going to get obliterated.
Patrick - out of interest, what's your definition of "obliterated"?
10 MPs or less.
Wow! ...... thanks for that.
I mean it. Even the likes of Vince Cable in Twickenham are desperately vulnerable. The yellows have destroyed their USP. They could have got energetically behind a Great Repeal Act. They could have been helpful engaging partners in government. They could have sought to replace Labour as the voice of the centre left. Instead they decided to become an internal opposition within the government and to lie and dissemble at every opportunity. Look at the 'deal' of AV referendum vs boundaries. Scum. They simply cannot be trusted by ANY coalition partner. What is the point of voting LibDem? What are they for? Who are they for? A vacuous pointless party that will get flushed away like a persistent floating turd.
I wish you'd cut the shilly shallying around and the honeyed words, Patrick, and just say what you actually think.
Being married to a Scot, having lived in Scotland before moving to Wales 45 years ago, and with a large Scottish family in the North of Scotland, I can say with a certainty that the posters on here who think this is a protest vote and all will return to normal in May 2015 simply do not understand the sea change in opinion in "Gods own people' and the only real question in Scotland is not the demise of Scot labour but who is going to fill the centre right.
I believe it. Do you have a view on which SNP targets might be value?
I'm on Glasgow East and Dundee West, the more obvious ones, since around about a month ago. But am now interested in considering others.
Casino - for the SNP's existing and target seats, you really need to take a close look at antifrank's brilliant blog NEWS TO NO ONE from which the following is an extract:
For those of us interested in the betting aspects of the forthcoming General Election, antifrank has produced the definitive piece of work so far, as I keep on repeating. If the current polls are ultimately borne out at the GE, then for those with sufficient foresight, there has been some truly sensational value to be had by backing the SNP to win a whole raft of seats. Much of this value has of course now gone as the bookies have progressively chopped back their odds, but no doubt there remain a few gems for those who are prepared to search long and hard.
Neither MP seems to have done much for their local NHS despite being in government for four years.
I think you overstate an MPs influence on anything. They have a good bully-pulpit, they can usually get stuff in the local papers, they can get access to talk to people, but what can they actually make happen unless they happen to be ministers ?
Both have made local NHS services a big part of their campaigns. If they cannot do anything about them, then why have they put the NHS in the centre of their literature?
I do hope they are not copying big party cynicism!
Carswell is not the MP for Colchester, why do you connect him? One thing he has done is oppose 12,000 houses being built in Clacton for London overspill, so that's 20,000 plus people the local NHS don't have to deal with
Now someone needs to do the same in Havering, where it seems hospitals are closed to ensure the population rises
Carswells nearest hospital emergency dept is Colchester.
...but not as funny as watching Useless Ed get monstered by Mylene Klass!
...what an utter chocolate teapot that man is...
Unfortunately Ed's lot is that the right has made bullying him legitimate, but he can't be seen to hit back. A fondness for outright Tom Brown style bullying is one of the more unattractive features of our right.
Ed's lot is to be a piss poor leader. He gets bullied by the big boys. Boo hoo. He put himself in the firing line,. You think Putin isn't going to shove his head down the bog? Or ISIS? Or any of a dozen other tin-pot dictators who would see a man who is weak, weak, weak.....
What a shock, police have been fiddling the crime stats
"Almost a million crimes a year are disappearing from official figures as chief constables attempt to meet targets, a study by the police watchdog has disclosed. Its report exposed “indefensible” failures by forces to record crime accurately, and said that in some areas up to a third of crimes are being struck out of official records."
I note that the long campaign starts on 19 December. This means that there are both constituency spending limits and national spending limits with effect from that date. I think that this is new this time round.
So parties are spending money now before the limits come in.
Is this having much impact?
Lots and lots of direct mail from the Tories. I think it's hit diminishing returns ("Oh, it's just them again, where's the bin?"), making it harder to get any specific new message over, but you may think that professional optimism.
Presumably lots of phone canvassing too, though we're not noticing so much of that.
Hmm. So you're noticing stuff you think the voters don't like and not noticing any of the canvassing that you'd prefer to think wasn't happening?
Sorry Nick, I take your posts on Broxtowe on here with a fairly sizeable handful of salt.
Well the Ashcroft Broxtowe poll had Nick winning by a sizeable margin. Interesting that to the first standard VI question in Broxtowe Nick has 7% lead. To the 2nd seat related one that moves to 9%.
FPT I see Bob Smithson thinks that an unskilled non-English speaker is as worthwhile an immigrant as a highly skilled English speaker.
Well its a view, I suppose.
It's one operated on a daily basis by trade unions.What matters is the rate for the job as specified by the employer and that it is applied equally in a single-tier workforce.
It seems pretty clear that the switch to SNP is because it's now safe for sponging Scotchmen to support the SNP.
These people need English money to fund their lives of leisure at home drinking Special Brew and watching Sky Sports in their underpants. Had Yes won this supply of free
With Yes having been pounded like a dockside hooker in September, it is now safe to vote SNP - who are the party most committed to getting English money into the pockets of idle Scots - without any concomitant risk of independence.
As we know from The Hitchiker's Guide to the Galaxy the answer is 42.
Given that, in spite of the massive increased turnout, and many Labour voters saying Yes, while a significant number of SNP voters said No, the answer was 45% SNP for Holyrood and 45% Yes, I suggest the SNP vote in May may well be 45%.
Certainly I am hearing that Yes voters are in vast majority intending to vote SNP emboldened, among other thoughts, by the belief that a hung parliament is coming and the SNP would be more effective representatives for them than the usual lumpen, lobby fodder labourites.
Ultimately, as I suggested a few years ago, it is very likely eventually, GEs in Scotland will become Unionist v Nationalist in many Scottish constituencies, I expect that in May 2015 only the Yes side will be properly set up that way, whereas the No side will remain much more divided. Hence, lots of SNP gains.
I note that the long campaign starts on 19 December. This means that there are both constituency spending limits and national spending limits with effect from that date. I think that this is new this time round.
So parties are spending money now before the limits come in.
Is this having much impact?
Lots and lots of direct mail from the Tories. I think it's hit diminishing returns ("Oh, it's just them again, where's the bin?"), making it harder to get any specific new message over, but you may think that professional optimism.
Presumably lots of phone canvassing too, though we're not noticing so much of that.
Hmm. So you're noticing stuff you think the voters don't like and not noticing any of the canvassing that you'd prefer to think wasn't happening?
Sorry Nick, I take your posts on Broxtowe on here with a fairly sizeable handful of salt.
Well the Ashcroft Broxtowe poll had Nick winning by a sizeable margin. Interesting that to the first standard VI question in Broxtowe Nick has 7% lead. To the 2nd seat related one that moves to 9%.
On a quick glance at the Telegraph it appears a strategist in the Lib Dems is saying that Danny Alexander is going to struggle to retain seat.
Baxter has long had Danny Boy losing this seat all ends up, currently forecasting him to win 21% of the vote, compared with the SNP's 47%! Those nice folk at Ladbrokes have the LibDems on offer at 2/1 for this seat, whilst the SNP is unsurprisingly the short-priced favourite at 4/9.
FPT I see Bob Smithson thinks that an unskilled non-English speaker is as worthwhile an immigrant as a highly skilled English speaker.
Well its a view, I suppose.
It's one operated on a daily basis by trade unions.What matters is the rate for the job as specified by the employer and that it is applied equally in a single-tier workforce.
So the employer sets the wage at the lowest number he can possibly think of, and waits a bit, if no one takes it, he adds a bit and tries again. Ultimately most jobs will get taken by immigrants because as a generalisation, they are prepared to do the same job for less. They then claim in-work benefits, and leave the taxpayer with the bill for the JSA of the native who was not taken on, and the in work benefits for the migrant. Plus there is now additional person (if not family) using the schools and hospitals, also at the taxpayers expense. Nice deal for the employers, lousy deal for the public footing the bill.
I note that the long campaign starts on 19 December. This means that there are both constituency spending limits and national spending limits with effect from that date. I think that this is new this time round.
So parties are spending money now before the limits come in.
Is this having much impact?
Lots and lots of direct mail from the Tories. I think it's hit diminishing returns ("Oh, it's just them again, where's the bin?"), making it harder to get any specific new message over, but you may think that professional optimism.
Presumably lots of phone canvassing too, though we're not noticing so much of that.
Hmm. So you're noticing stuff you think the voters don't like and not noticing any of the canvassing that you'd prefer to think wasn't happening?
Sorry Nick, I take your posts on Broxtowe on here with a fairly sizeable handful of salt.
Well the Ashcroft Broxtowe poll had Nick winning by a sizeable margin. Interesting that to the first standard VI question in Broxtowe Nick has 7% lead. To the 2nd seat related one that moves to 9%.
I'm coming to a view that your analysis with a "fairly sizeable handful of salt."
Since ]July the national polling picture has moved from around a 5-7 point Labour lead to dead heat. Nick may just be 2-3 points ahead of Anna Soubry at the moment if Broxtowe has mirrored the national move away from Labour. I don't see why it shouldn't given that that the named constituency question only added 2 points to Nick's lead, an extra one percent swing Con -> Lab is not really something I would be banking on come election time and campaign time.
Despite the current Scots Polls, Sturgeon ain't no Salmond, Murphy or Davidson.....her performances are so contrived as to be painful if she isn't parked in front of an adoring SNP audiences clapping and cheering at her now tired and clichéd sound bites.
The Scottish electorate certainly seem to agree Sturgeon ain't no Davidson.
Ipsos Oct 12014.
Sturgeon net satisfaction +38% Davidson net satisfaction -7%
Being married to a Scot, having lived in Scotland before moving to Wales 45 years ago, and with a large Scottish family in the North of Scotland, I can say with a certainty that the posters on here who think this is a protest vote and all will return to normal in May 2015 simply do not understand the sea change in opinion in "Gods own people' and the only real question in Scotland is not the demise of Scot labour but who is going to fill the centre right.
I believe it. Do you have a view on which SNP targets might be value?
I'm on Glasgow East and Dundee West, the more obvious ones, since around about a month ago. But am now interested in considering others.
Casino - for the SNP's existing and target seats, you really need to take a close look at antifrank's brilliant blog NEWS TO NO ONE from which the following is an extract:
For those of us interested in the betting aspects of the forthcoming General Election, antifrank has produced the definitive piece of work so far, as I keep on repeating. If the current polls are ultimately borne out at the GE, then for those with sufficient foresight, there has been some truly sensational value to be had by backing the SNP to win a whole raft of seats. Much of this value has of course now gone as the bookies have progressively chopped back their odds, but no doubt there remain a few gems for those who are prepared to search long and hard.
Thanks Peter. I've already clocked it: I'm a regular reader of antifrank and a huge admirer of his work.
I was being a bit lazy. I wanted a 2nd opinion/insight from someone who's got connections 'up the road' and might have more of a feel for what's going on the ground.
"They (the Lib Dems) could have been helpful engaging partners in government. They could have sought to replace Labour as the voice of the centre left."
I have occasionally been accused of being out of touch but in terms of out of touchness this takes gold! It is precisely because they became 'HELPFUL ENGAGING PARTNERS IN GOVERNMENT" that their left of centre support has vanished.
'Someone called @gosbornegenius on Twitter keeps posting a link to this article which says it wasn't the London Challenge that was responsible for good school results in the capital, but the large amount of BAME children'
This was confirmed by one of the head teachers interviewed over weekend.
A man clearly brimming with intellectual self confidence...
Ed Miliband has seized control of the selection process for Labour MPs, boosting hopes of those in his inner circle who want a seat and allowing him greater scope to do deals with unions.
The party’s ruling national executive committee (NEC) has agreed that from today a “special selection panel” will determine what happens in plum seats where sitting MPs announce they are standing down.
The panel wields huge power, deciding which seats must field all-women shortlists and determining the entire composition of shortlists in others. It is usually set up closer to polling day. One senior Labour source said that candidate selections which go through this process are “usually fixed”.
Neither MP seems to have done much for their local NHS despite being in government for four years.
I think you overstate an MPs influence on anything. They have a good bully-pulpit, they can usually get stuff in the local papers, they can get access to talk to people, but what can they actually make happen unless they happen to be ministers ?
Both have made local NHS services a big part of their campaigns. If they cannot do anything about them, then why have they put the NHS in the centre of their literature?
I do hope they are not copying big party cynicism!
Carswell is not the MP for Colchester, why do you connect him? One thing he has done is oppose 12,000 houses being built in Clacton for London overspill, so that's 20,000 plus people the local NHS don't have to deal with
Now someone needs to do the same in Havering, where it seems hospitals are closed to ensure the population rises
Carswells nearest hospital emergency dept is Colchester.
Well it's a laboured point you make as it's not in his constituency, but opposing 12,000 new homes being built is one way of helping that local A&E
I note that the long campaign starts on 19 December. This means that there are both constituency spending limits and national spending limits with effect from that date. I think that this is new this time round.
So parties are spending money now before the limits come in.
Is this having much impact?
Lots and lots of direct mail from the Tories. I think it's hit diminishing returns ("Oh, it's just them again, where's the bin?"), making it harder to get any specific new message over, but you may think that professional optimism.
Presumably lots of phone canvassing too, though we're not noticing so much of that.
Hmm. So you're noticing stuff you think the voters don't like and not noticing any of the canvassing that you'd prefer to think wasn't happening?
Sorry Nick, I take your posts on Broxtowe on here with a fairly sizeable handful of salt.
Well the Ashcroft Broxtowe poll had Nick winning by a sizeable margin. Interesting that to the first standard VI question in Broxtowe Nick has 7% lead. To the 2nd seat related one that moves to 9%.
I'm coming to a view that your analysis with a "fairly sizeable handful of salt."
Well, I've already come to that view with you, Mike. How's that immovable Lib Dem firewall and prediction of a YES win in Scotland working out for you?
Unlike you, I got both right. I also correctly predicted Cameron's moves at October conference on an IT cut for higher earners, a further raise in the Income Tax threshold.
Besides which, I don't say Nick won't win - I think he probably will - but it'll be much closer that punters on here might be led to believe by his one sided canvassing reports. They should be warned.
Got two optioned. One I am doing a further rewrite on at the moment (script writing is rewriting, as they say...); the other is sat with a heavy-duty director. But trying to get directors to commit is fraught. There are only a handful in the UK whose name will support the funding. So they tend not to commit until they are aware of what else is out there, to pick and choose from.
We really need a bigger pool of British directors to choose from, but they need to have made some films before they get the funding to, er, make some films...
"They (the Lib Dems) could have been helpful engaging partners in government. They could have sought to replace Labour as the voice of the centre left."
I have occasionally been accused of being out of touch but in terms of out of touchness this takes gold! It is precisely because they became 'HELPFUL ENGAGING PARTNERS IN GOVERNMENT" that their left of centre support has vanished.
This must be some strange new use of the words "helpful" and "engaging" I hadn't previously been introduced to. The LDs got the worst of both worlds because they entered a coalition with the Tories (because it was their first chance to be in government in a century), there by pissing off a broad swathe of their "anyone but the Tories" followers, they then were awkward, disingenuous and underhand in coalition, so the other half of their support that was more neutral to the Tories also peeled off because they were conspicuously pissing around and not taking government seriously, this had the added bonus of proving to any future coalition partner that they couldn't be trusted. How to make a more complete Charlie-Fox of being in coalition is hard to fathom.
JackW: Con 310 (+3) .. Lab 264 (-13) .. LibDem 30 (-2) .. SNP 20 (+12) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 16 seats short of a majority
Some very interesting changes over the past 11 weeks Jack, not least the more than doubling of the projection of SNP seats. Please remind us, are you intending to provide ARSE updates on a fortnightly basis?
@JackW - good stuff. Round about where I think we'll end up but I'm slightly less bullish on the Tories and less optimistic on the Lib Dems. I'd chop at least 5 seats from the Tories and 4 from the Lib Dems and gift them to Labour.
'Someone called @gosbornegenius on Twitter keeps posting a link to this article which says it wasn't the London Challenge that was responsible for good school results in the capital, but the large amount of BAME children'
This was confirmed by one of the head teachers interviewed over weekend.
I don't doubt it. The Trojan Horse schools in Birmingham were achieving an excellent standard of education for similar reasons. If you were a muslim parent in the area, who could blame you for sending your children there?
Got two optioned. One I am doing a further rewrite on at the moment (script writing is rewriting, as they say...); the other is sat with a heavy-duty director. But trying to get directors to commit is fraught. There are only a handful in the UK whose name will support the funding. So they tend not to commit until they are aware of what else is out there, to pick and choose from.
We really need a bigger pool of British directors to choose from, but they need to have made some films before they get the funding to, er, make some films...
From The Agenda last night, is this the phrase that will be hung round the Labour neck?
She asked the politician: “Is that [the mansion tax] your only option? You might as well tax me on this glass of water. You can’t just point at things and tax them. You need to have a better strategy.
From The Agenda last night, is this the phrase that will be hung round the Labour nack?
She asked the politician: “Is that [the mansion tax] your only option? You might as well tax me on this glass of water. You can’t just point at things and tax them. You need to have a better strategy.
It was a little annoying that the presenter rescued him and changed the subject just as she was about to get into her stride
"They (the Lib Dems) could have been helpful engaging partners in government. They could have sought to replace Labour as the voice of the centre left."
I have occasionally been accused of being out of touch but in terms of out of touchness this takes gold! It is precisely because they became 'HELPFUL ENGAGING PARTNERS IN GOVERNMENT" that their left of centre support has vanished.
This must be some strange new use of the words "helpful" and "engaging" I hadn't previously been introduced to. The LDs got the worst of both worlds because they entered a coalition with the Tories (because it was their first chance to be in government in a century), there by pissing off a broad swathe of their "anyone but the Tories" followers, they then were awkward, disingenuous and underhand in coalition, so the other half of their support that was more neutral to the Tories also peeled off because they were conspicuously pissing around and not taking government seriously, this had the added bonus of proving to any future coalition partner that they couldn't be trusted. How to make a more complete Charlie-Fox of being in coalition is hard to fathom.
As we know from The Hitchiker's Guide to the Galaxy the answer is 42.
Given that, in spite of the massive increased turnout, and many Labour voters saying Yes, while a significant number of SNP voters said No, the answer was 45% SNP for Holyrood and 45% Yes, I suggest the SNP vote in May may well be 45%.
Certainly I am hearing that Yes voters are in vast majority intending to vote SNP emboldened, among other thoughts, by the belief that a hung parliament is coming and the SNP would be more effective representatives for them than the usual lumpen, lobby fodder labourites.
Ultimately, as I suggested a few years ago, it is very likely eventually, GEs in Scotland will become Unionist v Nationalist in many Scottish constituencies, I expect that in May 2015 only the Yes side will be properly set up that way, whereas the No side will remain much more divided. Hence, lots of SNP gains.
Indeed. Hitherto people used to vote Labour to keep the Tories out as not enough voted SNP to make a SNP vote other than risky in terms of being wasted. Now that perception may be flipping. Vote SNP, to keep the Tories out and Labour under control, is looking like a decent bet in terms of not wasting one's vote. And if the Tories still win, then a SNP majority is a good start for the obvious reaction to Brexit fro the EU.
There are not that many Tory voters to make the opposite decision about voting Labour, though they may swing some seats. In fact, I'd be surprised [edit] if they didn't get a few. And it is toxic for Labour to make a formal or even informal Labour-Tory alliance. Indyref was doubly toxic for SLAB - firstly the Labour-Tory alliance, and secondly Labour campaigning to maintain Tory domination over Scotland does not sit well with the many Labour voters who voted Yes.
The irony of all this is that it's the Unionists who are claiming that indyref is a done deal and will the Nats please shut up and stop being boring and pointing out what was promised etc etc. Yet it is the SNP who are downplaying the replay of indyref and it's the Unionist side who are attempting to redefine Scottish politics in terms of indyref while the SNP get on with running the country.
Comments
http://www.harriman-house.com/book/view/194/current-affairs/mark-oaten/coalition/
PoliticsHome @politicshome 55s56 seconds ago
Germany will “find ways” to try to keep Britain in the EU, the country’s deputy finance minister has said. http://www.politicshome.com/uk/story/45445/german_minister_hints_at_eu_welfare_changes.html …
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/nov/17/hospitals-face-a-and-e-crisis-colchester
And Reckless needs to get his sorted too...
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/nov/09/rochester-byelection-local-health-immigration-medway-hospital
Neither MP seems to have done much for their local NHS despite being in government for four years.
'Unfortunately Ed's lot is that the right has made bullying him legitimate, but he can't be seen to hit back. A fondness for outright Tom Brown style bullying is one of the more unattractive features of our right.'
Ed gets bullied Tom Brown style by a 33 year old woman.
Oh diddums,poor little darling.
If Labour don't win the election in 2015, because of lost seats in Scotland, they can point to Lamont. If she had a problem leading the party in Scotland, perhaps she should have stood down way before the referendum campaign.
The way forward for Labour is to have a separate party in Scotland, with a slightly different range of policies. It would appear that the electorate in Scotland are further to the left than those in England, so they have to be able to offer something different to Labour in England. They can't do this is time for May 2015, but they should announce the direction of travel.
http://joesaward.wordpress.com/2014/11/17/the-small-teams-get-tough/
It's possible the EU Commission may get involved.
But having watched Miliband on The Agenda last tonight, it struck me yet again just how underrated Murphy remains amongst Labour supporters UK wide. He has always had a much higher media profile at election times up here in Scotland, and he would have been so much better than Miliband connecting with the voter on the street tonight on The Agenda. Seen him do this quite regularly, and also Ruth Davidson very effectively over the last year a two. Despite the current Scots Polls, Sturgeon ain't no Salmond, Murphy or Davidson.....her performances are so contrived as to be painful if she isn't parked in front of an adoring SNP audiences clapping and cheering at her now tired and clichéd sound bites.
Not just Lab in trouble in Scotland. Strategists expecting Danny A. to lose unless miracle.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/liberaldemocrats/11237298/Danny-Alexander-will-lose-seat-in-2015-unless-there-is-a-miracle-turnaround-according-to-Lib-Dem-strategist.html
Dundee has always been the main battleground and Dundee West must be among the most vulnerable Labour seats. It is one the SNP has never quite been able to take. Glasgow, Dunbartonshire and North Lanarkshire among them contain almost 1/3 of Labour's Scottish seats and were the 3 hitherto Labour rotten burghs which voted YES.
The Tory campaign in the IndyRef was heavily concentrated on former Tory areas pre 1987 and they voted heavily NO. The entire South of Scotland, the leafier Edinburgh seats, Aberdeenshire, Stirling and indeed several counties currently represented by SNP MPs all saw 55-60+% NO.
The turnout at the general election will not be 83% across Scotland. There are several seats where it should once more be comfortably above 70%. We know which voters tend to vote at elections as opposed to just say they will.
All sense suggests Jim Murphy should win the SLAB leadership but Neil Findlay has announced a 1970s leftie mandate with renationalisation and kicking out Trident at the heart of it. We will soon see whether the typical SLAB member votes with head or heart. It pretty much looks like the union 33% is going to Findlay and the parliamentarians 33% mostly going to Murphy. That means it will be the CLP comrades who determine the outcome of the SLAB leadership election and it must harm Murphy to be seen as the London candidate.
Meanwhile Nat watchers are waiting to see what sort of government FM Nippy Sweetie chooses. There are a number of prominent Tartan Tories who sit for rural constituencies and many of us expect her to replace them. If she doesn't then maybe she does intend to try and run Scotland for the interests of all, in spite of her "politics of envy" rhetoric.
My last ever argument with tim was over this... And it looks as though I was right all along... Nice one gosbornegenius!
"The findings cast doubt over claims from the previous government and teachers’ leaders that Labour’s flagship “London Challenge” programme – extra funding to promote collaborative working between schools – was the main reason for improved results in the capital.
Prof Burgess said: “My interpretation of these results leads to a focus on pupil aspiration, ambition and engagement. There is nothing inherently different in the ability of pupils from different ethnic backgrounds, but the children of relatively recent immigrants typically have greater hopes and expectations of education, and are, on average, more likely to be engaged with their school work."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/educationnews/11223747/Schools-with-large-migrant-intake-get-better-GCSE-results.html
Scotsman - Blair McDougall lands Jim Murphy advisor role
Given that, in spite of the massive increased turnout, and many Labour voters saying Yes, while a significant number of SNP voters said No, the answer was 45% SNP for Holyrood and 45% Yes, I suggest the SNP vote in May may well be 45%.
Certainly I am hearing that Yes voters are in vast majority intending to vote SNP emboldened, among other thoughts, by the belief that a hung parliament is coming and the SNP would be more effective representatives for them than the usual lumpen, lobby fodder labourites.
Ultimately, as I suggested a few years ago, it is very likely eventually, GEs in Scotland will become Unionist v Nationalist in many Scottish constituencies, I expect that in May 2015 only the Yes side will be properly set up that way, whereas the No side will remain much more divided. Hence, lots of SNP gains.
I do hope they are not copying big party cynicism!
14 minutes 14 seconds
I think the English are fundamentally practical and aren't really concerned about theoretical constructs. The sort of polls you are referring to are "do you like privatisation or would you prefer nationalisation". The vote is not a positive one for nationalisation, but more a reaction to the evident failings of badly constructed privatisation.
I suspect that if you could develop mutuals / community owned structures / partnerships, etc that worked the English would be very happy with that. It's not particularly "left" or "right" wing (although I'd say it could be construed as being conservative in a small C sense)
Now someone needs to do the same in Havering, where it seems hospitals are closed to ensure the population rises
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Change from 2nd September Projection) :
Con 310 (+3) .. Lab 264 (-13) .. LibDem 30 (-2) .. SNP 20 (+12) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 16 seats short of a majority
......................................................................................
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - Likely Con Hold (From TCTC)
Pudsey - TCTC
Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain
Warwickshire North - Likely Lab Gain
Cambridge - Likely LibDem Hold
Ipswich - TCTC
Watford - Likely LibDem Gain (From TCTC)
Croydon Central - Likely Con Hold
Enfield - TCTC
Cornwall North - TCTC
Great Yarmouth - Con Hold
Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold
Ochill and South Perthshire - Likely SNP Gain (From Likely Lab Hold)
Changes From 02 Sep - Bury North moves from TCTC to Likely Con Hold. Watford moves from TCTC to Likely LibDem Gain. Ochill and South Perthshire moves from Likely Lab Hold to Likely SNP Gain
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
Gain/Hold - Over 2500
.......................................................................................
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
p.19
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Scottish-Attitudes-November-Tables_1_46.pdf
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/wasim-mahmood/snp-membership-scottish-referendum_b_6168512.html?utm_hp_ref=tw
NB Ignore uniform national swing calculations. The mathematics behind them simply don't work for the Lib Dems when they've mislaid two thirds of their support (unless you believe that they can get negative votes in half the constituencies in Scotland) and they are implausible for the SNP when their support has more than doubled since the last Westminster election and there is every reason to believe that they have put that support on disproportionately in areas that voted Yes.
Remember Huppert is up against the Nazi saluting union chap who finished 3rd last time and for some bizarre reason is 8/11.
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/reading-entrails-few-polling.html
AnotherDave has drawn to my attention that ComRes will now be prompting for UKIP as a matter of standard practice.
Painfully narrow-minded for a place of supposed creativity.
McVoters love a munter ?
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Broxtowe-July-2014-Full-tables.pdf
I'm coming to a view that your analysis with a "fairly sizeable handful of salt."
32.5% agree that "My relationship with a friend or family member has been permanently damaged due to the referendum campaign"
!!!
p.39
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Scottish-Attitudes-November-Tables_1_46.pdf
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bygi8eZw-4q1X3FXVXotd0t2RlE/view
For those of us interested in the betting aspects of the forthcoming General Election, antifrank has produced the definitive piece of work so far, as I keep on repeating.
If the current polls are ultimately borne out at the GE, then for those with sufficient foresight, there has been some truly sensational value to be had by backing the SNP to win a whole raft of seats. Much of this value has of course now gone as the bookies have progressively chopped back their odds, but no doubt there remain a few gems for those who are prepared to search long and hard.
BTW is your film script off the blocks?
Guardian erases "Palestinians" from Reuters story on Jerusalem terror attack http://fb.me/1X1SKPYxW
Naturally !!
Financial Times @FinancialTimes 18m18 minutes ago
Six dead after Jerusalem synagogue attack http://on.ft.com/1yh70YR
Telling like it is; mostly.
---------------
Think of it like drinking. Doctors assume you've lied and double the figure IIRC!
It's already been written to a certain extent. Looks like it may need a post-mortem update.
'Strange Death of Labour in Scotland' by Gerry Hassan, Eric Shaw.
http://tinyurl.com/pw7g9wy
These people need English money to fund their lives of leisure at home drinking Special Brew and watching Sky Sports in their underpants. Had Yes won this supply of free
With Yes having been pounded like a dockside hooker in September, it is now safe to vote SNP - who are the party most committed to getting English money into the pockets of idle Scots - without any concomitant risk of independence.
That the short fat liar has gone can only help.
Ipsos Oct 12014.
Sturgeon net satisfaction +38%
Davidson net satisfaction -7%
http://tinyurl.com/oko4fmd
I was being a bit lazy. I wanted a 2nd opinion/insight from someone who's got connections 'up the road' and might have more of a feel for what's going on the ground.
"They (the Lib Dems) could have been helpful engaging partners in government. They could have sought to replace Labour as the voice of the centre left."
I have occasionally been accused of being out of touch but in terms of out of touchness this takes gold! It is precisely because they became 'HELPFUL ENGAGING PARTNERS IN GOVERNMENT" that their left of centre support has vanished.
'Someone called @gosbornegenius on Twitter keeps posting a link to this article which says it wasn't the London Challenge that was responsible for good school results in the capital, but the large amount of BAME children'
This was confirmed by one of the head teachers interviewed over weekend.
Unlike you, I got both right. I also correctly predicted Cameron's moves at October conference on an IT cut for higher earners, a further raise in the Income Tax threshold.
Besides which, I don't say Nick won't win - I think he probably will - but it'll be much closer that punters on here might be led to believe by his one sided canvassing reports. They should be warned.
We really need a bigger pool of British directors to choose from, but they need to have made some films before they get the funding to, er, make some films...
Conservatives 16 seats short of a majority
Some very interesting changes over the past 11 weeks Jack, not least the more than doubling of the projection of SNP seats. Please remind us, are you intending to provide ARSE updates on a fortnightly basis?
'Carswells nearest hospital emergency dept is Colchester.'
Wrong,Carswell's nearest hospital emergency dept is the Charring Cross hospital on Fulham Palace Road.
She asked the politician: “Is that [the mansion tax] your only option? You might as well tax me on this glass of water. You can’t just point at things and tax them. You need to have a better strategy.
I am helpful and engaging
You are a Tory
He is a wanker
There are not that many Tory voters to make the opposite decision about voting Labour, though they may swing some seats. In fact, I'd be surprised [edit] if they didn't get a few. And it is toxic for Labour to make a formal or even informal Labour-Tory alliance. Indyref was doubly toxic for SLAB - firstly the Labour-Tory alliance, and secondly Labour campaigning to maintain Tory domination over Scotland does not sit well with the many Labour voters who voted Yes.
The irony of all this is that it's the Unionists who are claiming that indyref is a done deal and will the Nats please shut up and stop being boring and pointing out what was promised etc etc. Yet it is the SNP who are downplaying the replay of indyref and it's the Unionist side who are attempting to redefine Scottish politics in terms of indyref while the SNP get on with running the country.
It was Nicola's first breath