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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation finds dramatic LAB collapse in Scotland but not o

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  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548

    Every BJESUS
    17.6.14 LAB 330 CON 263 LD 33 UKIP 0 Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    24.6.14 LAB 330 CON 263 LD 33 UKIP 0 Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    1.7.14 LAB 329(330) CON 268 (263) LD 29(33) UKIP 0(0) Others 24(24) (Ed is crap is PM)
    8.7.14 LAB 330 (329) CON 264(268) LD 32(29) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    15.7.14 LAB 329 (330) CON 264(264) LD 33(32) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    22.7.14 LAB 331 (329) CON 261(264) LD 34(33) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    29.7.14 LAB 332 (331) CON 260(261) LD 34(34) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    5.8.14 LAB 330(332) CON 262(260) LD 34(34 UKIP0(0) Others 24 (Ed is Crap is PM)
    12.8.14 LAB 332 (330) CON 260(262) LD 34(34) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    18.8.14 LAB 331(332) CON 261(260) LD 34(34) UKIP0(0) Others 24 Ed is crap is PM
    26.8.14 LAB 333(331) CON 259(261)LD(34)UKIP 0(0) Others 24 Ed is crap is PM
    2.9.14 LAB331(333) CON261(259) LD24(34) Others24 (24) Ed is crap is PM
    9.9.14 LAB332(331) CON260(261) LD34(34) Others24 (24) Ed is crap is PM
    16.9.14 LAB 331(332) CON 262(260) LD 33(34) UKIP0(0) Others 24 Ed is crap is PM
    23.9.14 LAB 334 (331) CON 260(262) LD 32(33) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    30.9.14 LAB 334 (334) CON 260(260) LD 32(32) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    7.10.14 LAB 325 (334) CON 269(260) LD 31(32) UKIP 1(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    14.10.14 LAB 328 (325) CON 264(269) LD 33(31) UKIP 1(1) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    21.10.14 LAB 327 (328) CON 265(264) LD 33(33) UKIP 1(1) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    28.10.14 LAB 322 (327) CON 269(265) LD 33(33) UKIP 2(1) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    4.11.14 LAB 320 (322) CON 268(269) LD 31(33) UKIP 2(2) Others 29 (Ed is crap is PM)
    11.11.14 LAB 320 (320) CON 268(268) LD 31(31) UKIP 2(2) Others 29 (Ed is crap is PM)
    18.11.14 LAB 319 (320) CON 268(268) LD 31(31) UKIP 2(2) Others 30(29) (Ed is crap is PM)

    Weird Ed is crap, but he isn't PM. He's still a useless LotO
  • As a matter of grammar pedantry, what is the verb related to 'coalition'?

    Squabble?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337
    Anorak said:

    Oh dear. This has 'LibDem pledge' written all over it.

    http://order-order.com/2014/11/18/salmonds-stone-of-destiny

    Well, he's no longer responsible is he? So in no danger of breaking his pledge. Or do you mean it reminds everyone, and especially and very usefully the H-W students, of Mr Clegg's promise?

  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Charles said:

    Patrick said:

    antifrank said:

    The experience of the Lib Dems in government shows exactly why the only conceivable coalitions after the next election in a hung Parliament involve the Lib Dems (who have already suffered much of the damage that being in coalition cases). Neither UKIP nor the SNP will be inclined to take the same hit.

    I suspect we may be heading for a minority government with confidence and supply support. Another full coalition deal will be very hard as the areas of Tory/LibDem overlap appear to have withered in 5 years. Rose Garden bromance no more. Means, of course, the 2017 EU referendum is off the cards!
    Cameron has always said that is a red line for a coalition.

    He'd probably have to go for a minority government w/o C&S (just for the optics) unless he is able to make it a C&S&EURef arrangement
    Journo: But the PM promised a referendum on EU membership in 2017
    Home Sec: Well we all know that was just a comment.
    PM: I can gives a cast iron promise, nay a vow, to go into coalition with the lib dems even if it means dropping the referendum, because I think I would be rather good at it, and sitting in government limousines is better for the country than people asking who you are at parties.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,704
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Isam,
    I visited St Georges admin area years ago to collect an “official" moblie phone. Bloke who supplied it had the most apparently disorganised office I’ve ever seen. Made my personal space (chaos) look like a model of tidiness and organisation.

    I lived 100 yards away from it growing up, my parents still do.

    If Hospitals are struggling to cope with the strain, why on earth is it being bulldozed? Even if only 1/4 of it stayed open it would help out
    There is an argument against small hospitals. At one time I worked at Billericay. One of the reasons for closing it was that it was, effectively, a Burns & Plkastic Unit and a couple of Geriatric Wards. OK, we had on site a Burns & Plastics team and a part-time Geriatric consultant and medical team, but if expertise was wanted from, for example cardiology or nephrology, it had to be brought over from Basildon, several miles away. Much better to move the Burns & PLastics to Chelmsford where such facilities were on site.
    And the Care of the Elderly wards were in a poor condition.
    You obviously know better than me about this, but from a laymans perspective, I cant see how closing two and a half out of the four local hospitals while the population is growing (accentuated by the building on the grounds of the closed hospitals) is right

    As I showed with the links I posted, the one remaining hospital, which cost a fortune to build, is regarded as worse than useless by patients and inspectors.

    My Dad was rushed to Queens a couple of years ago w Bronchitis and was sharing a ward with a paranoid schizophrenic.. a friends wife gave birth there while other babies were being delivered assembly line stylee in the toilet! Can this be right? Wont it get worse with more people and fewer hospitals?
    You know a lot more about the area than I do, and I’m by no means up to speed with where I last worked, let alone anywhere else!

    Part of the problem, it seems to me, is that the powers-that-be insist on having 100% bed-occupancy at all times. If one is running a system with elastic demand there must be spare capacity to mop up demand at peaks times, especially when those peaks are not entirely foreseeable.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    isam said:

    @isam Possible that you need psychiatric help.

    Will there be a team available at Dirty Dicks on Friday?

    A team of people needing it? Yes I think so !!
    Excellent I understand 6 pints of bitter is believed to be a cure.

    I also understand after the by-election their will be many people in need of bitter.

    Or in the case of the defeated PB Tories just bitter ness
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Carnyx said:

    Anorak said:

    Oh dear. This has 'LibDem pledge' written all over it.

    http://order-order.com/2014/11/18/salmonds-stone-of-destiny

    Well, he's no longer responsible is he? So in no danger of breaking his pledge. Or do you mean it reminds everyone, and especially and very usefully the H-W students, of Mr Clegg's promise?
    More the former, but that's a very good point you make.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited November 2014
    Charles said:

    Patrick said:

    antifrank said:

    The experience of the Lib Dems in government shows exactly why the only conceivable coalitions after the next election in a hung Parliament involve the Lib Dems (who have already suffered much of the damage that being in coalition cases). Neither UKIP nor the SNP will be inclined to take the same hit.

    I suspect we may be heading for a minority government with confidence and supply support. Another full coalition deal will be very hard as the areas of Tory/LibDem overlap appear to have withered in 5 years. Rose Garden bromance no more. Means, of course, the 2017 EU referendum is off the cards!
    Cameron has always said that is a red line for a coalition.

    He'd probably have to go for a minority government w/o C&S (just for the optics) unless he is able to make it a C&S&EURef arrangement
    That could work out for everyone. Cameron goes off to Brussels and comes up with the restoration of John Major's working time directive opt-out and a couple of other bits of union-hostile right-wingery. Lib/Lab say, you promised a better deal for Britain not a new way to shaft working people, and refuse to vote for a referendum unless it contains an option for the status quo. Cameron says, no, I promised to do it this way. Everybody works themselves up into a state of righteous indignation about the perfidity of everybody else, and they all get to avoid a referendum that none of the parties, not even UKIP, seem to actually want.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited November 2014

    isam said:

    @isam Possible that you need psychiatric help.

    Will there be a team available at Dirty Dicks on Friday?

    A team of people needing it? Yes I think so !!
    Excellent I understand 6 pints of bitter is believed to be a cure.

    I also understand after the by-election their will be many people in need of bitter.

    Or in the case of the defeated PB Tories just bitter ness
    Oh I don't know, they were steaming into the 25/1 yesterday to average out I believe...

    Last price matched 50

    http://sports.betfair.com/

    But stranger things have happened.. Labour were this price in H&M and it was not 1/50 in the end
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,704
    Plato said:

    Small trivia anecdote - I met Bernie's Ops Dir a few ago - the pressure he described in passing was epic. He never stayed for the races - and would do a return trip to Australia in less than 48hrs so he'd be back home.

    Mind bending.

    Anorak said:

    F1: bit late, but Ladbrokes has a fastest qualifying car market. Hope they keep that for next year, could be of some interest.

    Well, I expect Mercedes to remain dominant, but their advantage may diminish. Hard to say whether Williams or Red Bull (or, just maybe, McLaren) will pose the biggest challenge to the Silver Arrows.

    It's going to be interesting to see what happens to F1 when Bernie joins the choir eternal. He's 84, and all that stress and travel can't be good for a codger of his age.
    You’re right Ms Plato. I have family members who work in the organisation. One, who needs to be there during the race is often in a helcopter to the airport to come home within minutes after the race is over.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Isam,
    I visited St Georges admin area years ago to collect an “official" moblie phone. Bloke who supplied it had the most apparently disorganised office I’ve ever seen. Made my personal space (chaos) look like a model of tidiness and organisation.

    I lived 100 yards away from it growing up, my parents still do.

    If Hospitals are struggling to cope with the strain, why on earth is it being bulldozed? Even if only 1/4 of it stayed open it would help out
    There is an argument against small hospitals. At one time I worked at Billericay. One of the reasons for closing it was that it was, effectively, a Burns & Plkastic Unit and a couple of Geriatric Wards. OK, we had on site a Burns & Plastics team and a part-time Geriatric consultant and medical team, but if expertise was wanted from, for example cardiology or nephrology, it had to be brought over from Basildon, several miles away. Much better to move the Burns & PLastics to Chelmsford where such facilities were on site.
    And the Care of the Elderly wards were in a poor condition.
    You obviously know better than me about this, but from a laymans perspective, I cant see how closing two and a half out of the four local hospitals while the population is growing (accentuated by the building on the grounds of the closed hospitals) is right

    As I showed with the links I posted, the one remaining hospital, which cost a fortune to build, is regarded as worse than useless by patients and inspectors.

    My Dad was rushed to Queens a couple of years ago w Bronchitis and was sharing a ward with a paranoid schizophrenic.. a friends wife gave birth there while other babies were being delivered assembly line stylee in the toilet! Can this be right? Wont it get worse with more people and fewer hospitals?
    You know a lot more about the area than I do, and I’m by no means up to speed with where I last worked, let alone anywhere else!

    Part of the problem, it seems to me, is that the powers-that-be insist on having 100% bed-occupancy at all times. If one is running a system with elastic demand there must be spare capacity to mop up demand at peaks times, especially when those peaks are not entirely foreseeable.
    How I would love to be the UKIP candidate for H&U.. I have even considered running as a independent!
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited November 2014
    Papers full of Mylene tearing ed a new one.

    It's probably not significant, I guess.

    She'd make a cracking tory candidate though
  • Baxter's projection for "rock solid" LIB DEM HOLD Ross, Skye and Lochaber (Charlie Kennedy):

    SNP 43%
    LD 34%
    Con 13%
    Lab 1%
    oth 10%

    Even in Orkney & Shetland the SNP would only be 9 points off what would be the biggest shock ever in the history of Scottish elections.

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll_scot.html

    Oh, and while I'm here: hearty congratulations to Bitter Together. The BBC ran a tremendous campaign for you. The Scots owe you a terrific vote of thanks... for the gruesome maiming of the once all-powerful Scottish Labour Party.

    Welcome back. I hope you didn't lose too much on the result.
    Quite the opposite. Came out plus 400 quid. But kicking myself for throwing away tons more winnings in the last 7 days. Should really have been well over 1500 quid.

    Thanks for your concern! ;)

    By the way, my absence is as much due to my new job as any political or betting developments. Been undergoing a pretty intensive 10 week course away from home. Weekends currently far too precious for blog activities. Back to normal ish in Dec.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    isam said:

    isam said:

    @isam Possible that you need psychiatric help.

    Will there be a team available at Dirty Dicks on Friday?

    A team of people needing it? Yes I think so !!
    Excellent I understand 6 pints of bitter is believed to be a cure.

    I also understand after the by-election their will be many people in need of bitter.

    Or in the case of the defeated PB Tories just bitter ness
    Oh I don't know, they were steaming into the 25/1 yesterday to average out I believe...

    Last price matched 50
    You have been proved 100% correct on the opening prices being value on UKIP and terrible on the Tories.

    A number of posters were adamant the Tories would win.

    Oh how we laughed

    Have you made much money on it?
  • Baxter's projection for "rock solid" LIB DEM HOLD Ross, Skye and Lochaber (Charlie Kennedy):

    SNP 43%
    LD 34%
    Con 13%
    Lab 1%
    oth 10%

    Even in Orkney & Shetland the SNP would only be 9 points off what would be the biggest shock ever in the history of Scottish elections.

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll_scot.html

    Oh, and while I'm here: hearty congratulations to Bitter Together. The BBC ran a tremendous campaign for you. The Scots owe you a terrific vote of thanks... for the gruesome maiming of the once all-powerful Scottish Labour Party.

    Stuart - if you're seriously suggesting that Charles Kennedy is at risk of losing in Ross, Skye & Lochaber, then one really could be left contemplating the possibility of a couple of Black Cabs being sufficient to convey the LibDem contingent to and from the HoC.
    It simply ain't gonna happen, but don't let me dissuade you from taking Ladbrokes' 3/1 against the SNP winning this seat.
    No thanks!

    But fun to even think the thought.

    Why not ask Martin Baxter if he likes Shadsy's 3/1 ?
  • Mr. Anorak, there are persistent murmurings the increasingly unimpressive Christian Horner might get the gig.

    I hope not. As Red Bull team principal he's shown scant regard for the good for the sport as a whole.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Been undergoing a pretty intensive 10 week course away from home.

    PTSD? Terrible thing. Hope you're on the mend.
  • Welcome back, Mr. Dickson.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    isam said:

    @isam Possible that you need psychiatric help.

    Will there be a team available at Dirty Dicks on Friday?

    A team of people needing it? Yes I think so !!
    Excellent I understand 6 pints of bitter is believed to be a cure.

    I also understand after the by-election their will be many people in need of bitter.

    Or in the case of the defeated PB Tories just bitter ness
    Oh I don't know, they were steaming into the 25/1 yesterday to average out I believe...

    Last price matched 50
    You have been proved 100% correct on the opening prices being value on UKIP and terrible on the Tories.

    A number of posters were adamant the Tories would win.

    Oh how we laughed

    Have you made much money on it?
    Oh not much.. I haven't really got loads of money at the moment, and to be honest, convinced that I was right though I was, the fact that so many other people told me I was wrong tempered stakes more than it should have...

    So at least the Tories can be happy that they stopped me winning a bit of money if that's any consolation!

    Under 50% turnout would make it a decent enough pay day I suppose

    If you can get on with Skybet, under 50.5% and 5/6 is immense value IMO
  • I finally located my "Alex Salmond vs Nick Clegg" bet:

    http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/808/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-nighthawks-is-now-open/p1

    If anyone has seen R0berts (I haven't seen him around for a while), it would be good to have his confirmation that £20 went to the National Autistic Society.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BrianSpanner1: #ThanksAlex

    For helping MLK write and deliver his "I have a dream" speech. http://t.co/qzMclhduqW
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    SNP now 11/10 with Shadsy for most Scottish seats (11/8 yesterday)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Yvette Copper giving a speech on immigration

    "We need to do a bunch of stuff we deliberately ignored when we were in Government"
  • New Thread
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548

    SNP now 11/10 with Shadsy for most Scottish seats (11/8 yesterday)

    Oddly the Lab o/u seats bet hasn't shifted while Lab have been drifting on most Scottish seats, and SNP o/u up to 22.5
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    taffys said:

    Papers full of Mylene tearing ed a new one.

    It's probably not significant, I guess.

    She'd make a cracking tory candidate though

    greedy enough and nasty enough for sure
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498

    Baxter's projection for "rock solid" LIB DEM HOLD Ross, Skye and Lochaber (Charlie Kennedy):

    SNP 43%
    LD 34%
    Con 13%
    Lab 1%
    oth 10%

    Even in Orkney & Shetland the SNP would only be 9 points off what would be the biggest shock ever in the history of Scottish elections.

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll_scot.html

    Oh, and while I'm here: hearty congratulations to Bitter Together. The BBC ran a tremendous campaign for you. The Scots owe you a terrific vote of thanks... for the gruesome maiming of the once all-powerful Scottish Labour Party.

    Welcome back. I hope you didn't lose too much on the result.
    Quite the opposite. Came out plus 400 quid. But kicking myself for throwing away tons more winnings in the last 7 days. Should really have been well over 1500 quid.

    Thanks for your concern! ;)

    By the way, my absence is as much due to my new job as any political or betting developments. Been undergoing a pretty intensive 10 week course away from home. Weekends currently far too precious for blog activities. Back to normal ish in Dec.
    Stuart, surely you are not Blair Tuba in disguise and you have been at Murphy HQ for 10 weeks being indoctrinated
This discussion has been closed.