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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation finds dramatic LAB collapse in Scotland but not on the scale of Ipsos-MORI in October
The second part of the Daily Record Survation poll of Scottish voters was published overnight and finds a big increase in SNP support since the IndyRef with an even bigger drop in the Labour share.
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When it comes to the crunch, people in Scotland will realise that it's a choice between a UK Conservative government and a UK Labour government, and accordingly will revert to voting Labour in much more substantial numbers - probably Labour will get more votes and more seats than the SNP. Similarly, I think UKIP votes will decline significantly in England to perhaps 7% or 8% instead of the current 15%ish, as people think more carefully about what UKIP's policies actually are.
and stalks on this high ground with strumpet confidence,
makes no coy veiling of her appetite...
The Sturgeon of the Woods has cut bright boughs of various flowering;
Some she gives white berries, some she gives brown
Ed has a curious crown it's made of gold saxifrage.
Murphy wears sweet-briar, he will reign with her for a thousand years.
...ask not for whom the bell tolls, it tolls for the Labour Party...
Come, friendly Nats, and fall on Glasgow,
Swarm over, Death!
That's PB.com for you I guess!
Are we going to have to endure this Lord A love-in for the next six months? Mike clearly thinks he is the bees knees. Many others don't, for all sorts of reasons. For pb.com the most important factor is that his polling is the least accurate in Britain.
Just seen this article, I know its the Mail, but if Ed can be bested in this way about a policy which is obviously right (Mansion Tax), what chance does he have?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2838759/Just-couldn-t-worse-Ed-takes-TV-battering-Myleene-Labour-leader-humiliated-taken-task-singer-proposed-mansion-tax.html
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/nov/17/ukip-support-british-politics-voters-labour-party
I'd love to see articles of this quality on pb. Some more guest writers of his stature?
oh quit griping. A poll is simply a view at a point in time. It can't be a prediction since things change. Currently the blues are holding up while Labour falls back but would you sat that's the result ? When Osborne announces his numbers don't add up in the autumn statement the polls will jump all over the place, will you call the GE result on that basis or argue things have to settle down again?
Although they are unlikely to win many seats, maybe only the one they currently hold, another couple of points onto their share of the vote could potentially prove disastrous for Labour especially in terms of their prospects in a number of key marginals.
Might I respectfully suggest that a PB thread or two is in order to discuss these aspects.
We have many, many, pb threads about opinion polls, although as others have noted they do sometimes appear to be selective (today's YouGov has the Tories ahead). But the love-in for Lord Ashcroft is misplaced. 17% inaccuracy on a poll taken just hours before the real thing?
Piss poor.
SNP 43%
LD 34%
Con 13%
Lab 1%
oth 10%
Even in Orkney & Shetland the SNP would only be 9 points off what would be the biggest shock ever in the history of Scottish elections.
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll_scot.html
Oh, and while I'm here: hearty congratulations to Bitter Together. The BBC ran a tremendous campaign for you. The Scots owe you a terrific vote of thanks... for the gruesome maiming of the once all-powerful Scottish Labour Party.
150 minutes
Will it subside before the election? Probably yes, to some extent. Sturgeon is in her honeymoon period (though that may last more than 6 months), the SNP get less coverage in a UKGE, Labour will play the stop-the-Tories card strongly (though with the SNP moving left, it's debateable how effective that will be), and the referendum-dominated landscape will fade to a GE-inclined one. That said, I'd be amazed if Labour retake the lead, and that must mean major SNP gains. Simply level pegging represents a net swing of more than 11% since 2010 and that's enough to bring Labour's seats into play - what's more, because Labour had built up a decent 'moat' on an efficiently-spread vote, once a few seats come into play, a lot do.
One quick final point: the SNP surge does help the Tories in absolute terms as well as net ones. There will be a few seats, in the Borders and Edinburgh, for example), where the SNP taking votes from Labour could help the Tories come through the middle.
Yes 10/11
No 10/11
This is a serious point Mr Alan and if you don't like the heat, leave the kitchen. Opinion pollsters are an important source for political betters, which is probably why Mike uses them so much. If they are going to be publishing their results we, as punters and public, have every right to put them under scrutiny. Ashcroft has under-performed, and this needs to be pointed out every time we have a thread leader about him. I await R&S with interest. His biggest weakness appears to be on over-stating Labour's share, which is why he performed so much better at Clacton than H&M. On that record he should be much better at R&S.
As I say, for punters this is very important. Over-stating Labour's share, which has happened in 9 out of every 10 polls against the actual votes since 2010 (by elections and Euros), could be critical come the General Election.
It simply ain't gonna happen, but don't let me dissuade you from taking Ladbrokes' 3/1 against the SNP winning this seat.
2 months
Seriously though - this is not a Labour slump it's an SNP SURGE - ever since that fat buffoon loser Salmond quit - must have been holding them back.
What you're saying is "look, I can draw a line through these data points so this line is the absolute truth". And it's as much bollocks as any other line that anyone else could draw through the same data points.
Come on the Greens!
What sort of a government emerges from that mess? Dave minority on confidence and supply? Ed minority with SNP C&S and we abandon Trident? UKIP / LibDem alliance with Farage as Foreign Secretary? 1 woman Green dictatorship?
What gives me some hope is that the Scottish Tory vote seems to be quite loyal, so if Labour vote does collapse under an SNP landslide, I'm not sure the Conservative vote will decline that much.
If they did pick it up, it'd probably be on the back of something like 30% SNP, 31% Labour and 33% Con.
...what an utter chocolate teapot that man is...
35 LibDems! Hmm...a party that gets well below 10% in the polls is going to have to rely on some desperate hopes for local / candidate based success. Personally I think they're going to get obliterated.
It is not going to happen.
As for the suggestion that the Tories should lead the campaign in Scotland just pure madness. You might as well ask Ian Paisley junior to lead a campaign in South Armagh.
Labour and bullying are synonyms, if you don't submit they have you sacked or jailed over the most trivial rubbish.
That said, Labour in Scotland currently is leaderless and rudderless. That will not be the case in a month's time. Once the new man is in place (it will be a man), there is an opportunity to fight for and establish a voice independent of London, and to start asking the SNP a few tough questions. That will probably not save the party from a shellacking next year, but it may start to reap some dividends a year after that - especially if the SNP make their re-election campaign one that is centred on securing a new referendum.
So parties are spending money now before the limits come in.
Is this having much impact?
Which blackmail scenario is another good reason to vote in a Tory majority next year...
Interesting that this report coincides with the HMIC report that a quarter of sex offences are not being recorded as crimes by police in England and Wales. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-30081682
It's another negative reason, shame there aren't so many positive ones.
I have some friends who are of a generally rightish hue who have consistently voted SNP in the past as the opposition to Labour. When that was the choice in a Scottish election I could just about understand it although I was never tempted myself.
I very much hope that these people got a wake up call in the referendum. There is some evidence they have. Ipsos Mori apart the tory support is drifting upwards on the back of it.
As I said the other day I am above all a Unionist and may even bring myself to vote for a muppet and indirectly Ed to resist the SNP. I may not be typical but I do think the Unionist cause seriously needs to get its act together as this poll once again shows.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/16/ukip-divided-left-right-cut-labour-support
One of Labour's big problems is that it is so divorced from everyday life in large parts of England that it believes that the English are Daily Mail reading reactionaries who are not capable of, or interested in, embracing views that are not reactionary. Labour is very wrong about that.
Unfortunately for Labour the Scots have long memories and are pretty unforgiving when it comes to getting revenge on party leaders they don't like.
Having said that things will certainly get better when a new leader is chosen and Nicola's jackboots start to show.
The British public is intensely reserved and conservative, and the reason they have fallen out of love with Dave is because despite his squirey image, he's a liberal, and he wants to force people to change how they live their lives, and they dont like it. A lot of noise is made by the metrosexual liberal elites, because they dominate the media and politics sectors, but step outside the major cities, and life tries to go on as it has for decades, and intensely resents people bringing in new cultures that change what they are used to.
A socially conservative, left-leaning party would probably get a landslide today, we used to have one, I think it was called The Labour Party.
On the previous thread the other part of this polling was reported which showed about 2% of Scots had complete confidence in him. If Labour is to recover they need to hide him away again. Not easy to do in a GE. But strong Scottish voices like Murphy as leader might help. I suggest that SLAB should also think seriously about declaring UDI from the national party. He is that toxic.
I just fear that the Unions will once again determine the outcome of a Labour leadership election and not in a good way. Any SLAB member (and they have always been hen's teeth on this site for some reason) who does not vote for Murphy is voting for oblivion.
Presumably lots of phone canvassing too, though we're not noticing so much of that.
Average lead for Lab over previous fortnight 1.4%
For the fortnight before 1.7%
And the one before 3.8%
The last month could be margin-of-error-nothing-to-see-here-everything-the-same, or it could be the continuation of an obvious trend.
If you think this shows that weird Ed has a 68% chance of being PM you should be betting the farm on the 6/5 offered by Ladbrokes on that eventuality.
Well its a view, I suppose.
"so why's your pansy relative not standing for leader then Roger ?"
(Relative of a relative).
Keeping his powder dry for bigger contests down the line (I would like to think)
It's more of the same, but that also means we still seem on course for a game-changing shift in Scotland, which will primarily harm Labour [and, in the longer term, perhaps make a second referendum entirely possible].
Incidentally why are people happy to believe that the voters use byelections to send messages to their party, but think people tell pollsters gods honest truth, when its an even easier way to send messages and risks nothing at all.
But, unfortunately, the electoral timetable for Murphy and Dugdale will not be as favourable for them.
"Almost a million crimes a year are disappearing from official figures as chief constables attempt to meet targets, a study by the police watchdog has disclosed.
Its report exposed “indefensible” failures by forces to record crime accurately, and said that in some areas up to a third of crimes are being struck out of official records."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/11236805/A-million-crimes-reported-by-public-left-out-of-police-figures.html?WT.mc_id=e_3691218&WT.tsrc=email&etype=frontpage&utm_source=email&utm_medium=Edi_FAM_New_TEST_V2_2014_11_18&utm_campaign=3691218
Edited to add, my figures were of average YouGov Lab leads and were worked out, literally, on the back of a fag packet but I think they're still accurate...
"Labour's problem in Scotland is Ed. We Scots saw him during the referendum campaign and it was truly embarrassing. In fact BT ultimately had to hide him away cancelling events which were not helping"
If you're right and I think you might be then it's unlikely Murphy is going to make much of a difference. Only Brown could make really make the Scots forget that Ed leads Labour UK and he's not standing. A pretty bleak outlook
I'm on Glasgow East and Dundee West, the more obvious ones, since around about a month ago. But am now interested in considering others.
It is why both have been driven from the blogosphere, though Gadget still tweets.
Sorry Nick, I take your posts on Broxtowe on here with a fairly sizeable handful of salt.