Polls focused solely on Scotland have been very rare since the country voted to remain in the UK on September 18th so a new one is very much a special event particularly because of the apparent impact that the referendum had had on opinion north of the border.
Comments
http://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/crude-oil-futures---weekly-outlook:-november-17---21-316929
But Eck promised!
There has also been a clear and noted effect on things like the Edinburgh housing market which completely died in September and has recovered sharply.
There is a lot of room for a massive increase in the SNP vote in 47% yes though. As I said the other day the Unionist No vote is split 2.5 ways and that potentially gives them a major problem even if they are the overall majority.
The more interesting approach may be broader: the impact of referenda on Parliamentary politics. If one side of the question is identified with a single party, and the other with all the others, and the "single party" side loses the vote by appealing to the heart rather than the head, perhaps that is the best outcome of all for that Party. (Since its voters will, irrationally, feel cheated and resentment is an excellent recruiting sergeant.) I am sure that Mr Garage and his chums have taken the point already.
However I can say that I feel more like an alien in my own country every day. The Nats and their 45 stormtroopers are turning up the level of hate and unpleasantness and simply refuse to accept they lost. First Minister elect Nippy Sweetie has made it clear she has no intentions of running Scotland for all Scots. She portrays Tories as some sort of alien scum with no place in Scottish society (except of course to grow her magic money trees).
It is going to be interesting to see what happens to the SNP lead in the Scottish polls once the Labour leadership is resolved. If Jim Murphy wins, I suspect Labour will continue to slide. He is portrayed as a red tory. If Neil Findlay wins, he will attract back most of the socialists but fracture the Labour Party with his rhetoric of renationalisation and wealth redistribution (i.e. stealing the assets of the wealthy to fund the benefit scroungers and subsidy junkies who support Labour).
The SNP can set itself up as being tasked with getting the best deal out of Westminster on the new devolved powers for Scotland. In doing that, they represent the interests not only of those who voted for independence - who we can assume will take any and all the powers they can get on the road to full independence - but more importantly, those who wanted to stay in the Union but wanted more powers for Scotland.
Given that very few Scots would actively want no more powers devolved from Westminster, the pool of voters to support the SNP as the only party to hold the Tories, Labour and LibDems true on their Pledge is huge. I can see why next May, a vast swathe of Scottish Westminster seats will go SNP - because FOR SCOTLAND it is the only way to vote that makes any sense.
There, I've done it - a post that maybe malcomg can agree with me on!
Meanwhile the race to the left by Labour and the SNP really should create opportunities for a centrist/centre right party in Scotland. In Ruth Davidson I think the tories have got someone capable of being heard.
http://sotonpolitics.org/2014/11/13/polling-observatory-42-sharp-drop-in-labour-support/
Does anyone know if Ipsos prompts at all?
The Scottish Labour party need to distance themselves from him and, as you say, convince the majority of Scots that they will effectively represent the Scottish interest. It is an incredible ask, I would say impossible.
The SNP need large swings but I really don't believe they are going to have any problems getting them.
Even if you expect UKIP to win these odds are worth a few quid.
Or are the PB Tories 'all fart and no follow through' ?
The challenge Cammo's proposed referendum poses for UKIP is this: are they a single-issue pressure group or a would-be Government? If the latter, they could do worse than propose that the referendum asks other questions, unrelated to our EC membership. A promising subject, for those who wish to show to people like me that "social conservatism" isn't just a fig-leaf for racism, might be the re-introduction of the death penalty. It would, I suspect, also twist their knife into the Tories.
1 day 1 hour 1 minutes 1 second
This is absurd - a constitutional question such as Independence is not the sort of thing that should be constantly in doubt. However, I don't think there is anything duplicitous in a political party changing their position in response to widespread public support.
NB - Whenever I've heard paleontologists talk about "generations" the figure that I recall them using has been 30 years. I think you know this, and were being generous, but just thought I'd throw it out there.
We must face facts. Scotland's independence is NOT a settled matter. A war is not over until the loser accepts that he has lost. Is Scotland a safe place to invest in these days? Is the horror of currency / deficits / independence resolved? NO! Sturgeon may yet achieve the SNP's goal - an independently bankrupt Scotland. It is very sad.
I don't think the SNP will campaign on Independence. Most likely is they will campaign on getting the best devomax deal for Scotland, forcing the Westminster parties to keep their promises, etc. However, when it comes to the elections after the next - well within a "generation" - then it's plausible to see how they might change their position to something like "the Westminster parties have broken their promises", "devomax is a sham/not enough/broken", "we're forced by circumstance to push for Independence again earlier than we thought".
You've let the bucketing of the data cloud your reading of the meaning of the graph.
See - it's all about where you draw the boundaries.
So we lost the referendum, let's keep having plebiscites until we get the right result.
Just imagine the fun as PB talks about nothing except AV and the Indyref.
If NO had won by, say, 63% to 37% we wouldn't even be having this conversation. A result like that should have been perfectly possible, but the Unionist campaign was not an impressive one.
Or is there some other reason?
Genuine question. (Possibly because I haven't kept up with something!)
Ah, the Neverendum. What joy. Anyway, we'll see what happens.
F1: Kobayashi's driving for Caterham:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/30076477
This matters because a team can only have 4 drivers per season. Ericsson's toddled off to Sauber [and already ended his relationship with Caterham] and if Kobayashi weren't driving for them then they'd need to either get Lotterer on board (Spa, I think, was where he drove) or field just one car.
Trouble is on the never-endum, Sturgeon has come up with quite a good wheeze by arguing that Scotland wants to remain in EU and looks like English voters might vote to take us out in 2017.
I'm baffled by the sort of Scottish Nationalist who wants to be ruled from Brussels but thinks rule from London is vile and horrid. It doesn't make any sense whatsoever. [Whilst I'd still disagree, a nationalist wanting to leave both the EU and UK holds a perfectly rational perspective].
The Americas, Asia and Africa and Australasia can now manage very well without bothering about Western Europe - it is about time our politicians work up to reality and that wage increases are no longer the norm - do they want us to eat dirt before they come to their selfish and self-serving senses?
The one that stands a chance, IMHO, is Open-list PR in 4-5 member consitutencies. Voters know that from the Euros (albeit that's closed list) and get the constituency bit. But it also passes the fair votes test, and chuck-em-out test. I don't think FPTP is sustainable in the long-term, now.
Be interesting to see what sort of electoral reform might end up on the table during the 2020s.
On Murphy, I'm not sure that most Scots are different from most English voters, who generally don't think in neat left-right lines. Murphy is clearly a substantial figure who most people will have heard of, and it'd be an odd decision if Scottish Labour went for anyone else.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-30052211
Very Chris Morris.
Human beings don't mass spawn like other creatures.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/redbox/topic/poll-reveals-rochesters-ukip-voters-in-their-own-words?CMP=EMC-Redbox-Dailysubscribe-14_08_2014-559-0-0-0
Nobody seems to be mentioning the other results reported at the same time from the same poll - notably those on the EU, 47% Scots to stay in, vs 35% out. Which as I understand it is rather different from south of the border. That's an important indicator for the political impact of UKIP forcing a Brexit poll.
No idea how the immigration opinion figures compare, though.
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/independence-referendum-quarter-scots-never-4640537
Highly unfair process - and hence the YES camp has blown their chance for 35-40 years.
A period of reflection and silence would be welcome. Surely the Scottish voters will see through this massive "look squirrel" argument of tossing about the constitution whilst Scottish Education standards plummet further. It's unsustainable.
In the meantime, have a good day everyone and I'll see you to-morrow (DV).
Everybody else is open to having another referendum, presumably because they think that some day they might vote Yes :-)
It is absolutely clear that the SNP will not campaign for a new referendum for the 2015 GE.
They will probably campaign for Holyrood in 2016 saying that the only likely circumstance in which they would seek a referendum in their next term of office would be if Scotland votes to stay in the EU, when the UK as a whole votes to come out.
The idea that the UK government could effectively prevent another referendum in identical circumstances to those when it granted one i.e. the SNP puts it in its manifesto and wins a majority, isn't realistic politics no matter how much huffing and puffing would occur.
The simplest point to grasp is that there will be another referendum when and if the people of Scotland want one.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/findlay-pledges-to-push-for-miners-strike-inquiry-1-3607007
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/i-ll-nationalise-rail-and-scrap-trident-findlay-1-3606980
The second of these raises some very interesting questions for the UK as a whole if Mr Findlay does win the Scottish Labour leadership election.
Is it any good ?
Was thinking of staying there instead on Friday night.
No wonder Labour are tanking in Scotland.
Ignoring the sentiment, it does emphasise how vast Africa is compared with everywhere else.
To argue otherwise is to suggest that party manifestos are worthless and can be ignored once the election is over ...
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron-ed-miliband-nick-4265992
@PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 36 (+1), Con 35 (+2), LD 7 (-2), UKIP 11 (-2), Oth 10 (+1). Tables here: http://t.co/ikPN9aHSf0
Only the gullible would ever believe what he says.
Which explains why the Scots voted to remain in the Union.
Mr. Eagles, UKIP on 11 looks low.
Fresh from lecturing Vladimir Putin on international morality, David Cameron(the Victor of Libya, let it never be forgotten, as well as The Man Who Wanted to Back the Rebels in Syria Who Later Turned into ISIS, but luckily failed) is now warning that there is a coming world economic crisis which may wreck Britain's supposed recovery (see my blog of yesterday about being governed by people whose intellects are inferior to those of Garden Gnomes).
Actually,he knows perfectly well that this 'recovery' is founded upon sand, in the form of a cheap housing credit bubble and massaged statistics, and will be exposed very soon when the huge imbalance between spending and our ability to pay for it has to be addressed.
Presumably, this article is an early attempt to shift the blame. It s no longer possibe to say that it is Labour's falt, Labour having let office almost five years ago. So the rest of the world must take the blame.
By the way, what is Britain's direct interest in Ukraine, and with what armed forces do we presume to warn Russia? Once upon a time, we protected our own interests and had the resources to make our words count. Now we intervene in quarrels that are nothing to do with us, and lack the weapons or troops with which to back up our growls."
http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2014/11/curdling-the-blood.html
Basically the classic SLAb problem of hating everything the SNP propose, even when it is an SLab idea.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
Anyone got the up to date graph ? Google docs link..
I think this happened to me before.
The options weren't Lovely Libya and Horrid Libya, but a variety in the shade of shit, with a small chance of things turning out for the better with Gaddafi gone. It's easy to be wise with hindsight.
Also, if we'd backed the FSA earlier then they may've toppled Assad whilst ISIS was either very small or before it even existed. Not all rebels are ISIS.