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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the Betfair exchange is anything to go by it will be a good night for the Republicans in the MidTerms
Betfair exchange punters rate the the Republicans chances of winning Senate in today's midterms at 85% pic.twitter.com/H2Qk4snAPG
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(like Obama's Democrats tonight)
Or is this especially good?
It's also expected that the Republicans may not push as far as in the past because that was unpopular and there aren't as many Tea Party (= UKIP?) Republicans as previously.
Any idea if this is likely?
You need to reset the calculation of the party and lead averages on your graph so it is still to two decimal places - it can't be right that these are now to the nearest whole number.
But the change to no decimals on the list of polls is of course sensible.
I'd always thought that the jungle primary took place in advance of the usual Election Day, but confusingly...not!
On a train right now (and a plane soon - prepare for crossover!), so won't be able to change it for a bit. Hope you enjoyed the greens being added
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2014/11/when-conspiracy-theories-dont-fit-the-media-narrative-midterm-election-tom-cotton-joni-ernst/382209/
I always said that song would take off
I'm just looking at the two main graphs. When you put your cursor on the average "blobs" it gives the average. This used to be to two decimal places - it is now just a whole number.
Surely this is the whole purpose of the exercise - to see what the average is for each party and the average lead. But we now just get these to a whole number - which is almost meaningless as we could work that out in our heads anyway without going to the trouble of you doing all this work!
Didn't give it a thought until he turned up - it was Peter as in Paul and Mary.
After the show he asked if we were in a rush to leave, we turned down the studio lights, and we had a sing song. At the end he played Leaving on a jet plane a second time as I'd told him I like it.
It's obviously sensible not to show decimals on the table just listing the polls (as all polls are to a whole number anyway).
But it is imperative that the averages (when you put your cursor on them to get the actual value) are to two decimal places.
Philip Hollobone 2/1
John Baron 4/1
Henry Smith 4/1
Mark Pritchard 5/1
Peter Bone 6/1
George Eustice 8/1
Jacob Rees-Mogg 10/1
Gordon Henderson 10/1
David Nuttall 16/1
Nadine Dorries 16/1
Stewart Jackson (PBOB?) 16/1
Martin Vickers 16/1
Adam Holloway 16/1
And I can't be bothered to type any more out on my iPhone...
EDIT: I actually have some respect for Santorum. He certainly has some nutbar views, but he's always happy to answer difficult questions, have a debate and give honest answers. He also has shown a willingness to deviate from right-wing orthodoxy on occasion. I admire that, even though I could never vote for him.
It remains to be seen what will happen today.
There's an election. Drink. You don't need another reason.
Maybe necromancy is the way forward.
- and Nico Rosberg is a dickhead
That's how they test for life these days? So we've all got that to look forward to.....on top of everything else.
From fuzzy memory, he was entirely dignified about Singapore, where the car essentially broke and robbed him of any points at all.
They could try playing 'Long haired lover from Liverpool' repeatedly at high volume. Anybody still there must be dead
and what about Nico Monaco qualifying...didn't he pull his car off and ruin Lewis' qual lap
Edited extra bit: off for the night, incidentally.
My wobbly ego can't handle dissent.
Helen Whately eliminated in the first round. Secound round taking place now....
https://twitter.com/ajcdeane
TELEGRAPH: £120bn cost of Labour's policy on immigration
However, if it side benefit of, we would never hear the end of it.
You are right that the over round is huge.. but I guess there will be people who actually know the result, so one of them is 1.01!!
But I cant believe it is even worth Ladbrokes while doing the market because they don't take a bet on it anyway.. I was allowed a tenner on Hollobone at 10s last time.. I have a fancy here, but its not really worth the planning involved to get on!
He'd just campaign as a K in May.
She is from Grantham http://lincolnshire.moderngov.co.uk/mgUserInfo.aspx?UID=651
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29903671
There are a few things certain in this world and one of them is that old Rupert always has the last laugh.
I reckon 51-52 Republican seats, with Kansas being a nailbiter.
Finally.
The BBC glossed over this story; doesn't fit the narrative.
"This is a borough where there have been widespread allegations of extremism, homophobia and antisemitism has been allowed to fester without proper challenge.”
I hope the guys Pickles sends down there to sort it out have protection officers.
GeoffM's Assessment: Unlikely
I guess if there can't be a by-election, there won't be another defection...
I don't think voters enjoy being troubled unnecessarily, 'decent thing' or not. Carswell's gambit played out perfectly and Reckless's looks like coming off too. Not sure it would work a third time. The 'too-close-to-the-GE' defence looks sounder.
Why is this the first we've heard about it?
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/11/who-will-be-the-next-tory-defector-to-ukip/
I suspect Smith has pointed out that although the Kippers are likely to be toxic in the constituency (want to abolish the borough council etc.) they could still take enough votes to let Labour triumph. (Crawley is a traditional Lab-Con bellwether.) Suspect Smith is negotiating a free run.
Most important issue facing the country - economy 45% Health care 25% illegal immigration 14% foreign policy 13%
Worried about the economy - Yes 78% No 21%
Economy is - better 35% worse 31% same 33%
national economic conditions - excellent / good 30% not good / poor 69%
country is on - right track 31% wrong track 65%
life for next gen Americans will be - better 22% worse 49% same 27%
I just posted the nationwide data
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by two: CON 32%, LAB 34%, LD 7%, UKIP 15%, GRN 6%
Reading that over there now - was expecting voting intention exits.
EDIT: Many thanks for your reply about polls closing etc. Appreciated.
I have noticed that the Tories are leveling their score throughout the country.
In 2012 it was typical to see a 35% difference between the South and Scotland or 25% with the North, now that has halved even as the Tory share nationally is the same.
That suggests to me that it is both easier for the Tories to get many more seats that UNS suggests and a greater risk of scoring severely fewer seats than UNS suggests at the same time (a majority or less seats than 1997), as the Tory vote is now spread thin, while in the past it was concentrated in the South.
The next GE will be very fascinating, in past elections the outcome was determined in 100 marginals seats, in May it could be 300 seats or more.