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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov poll for the Times shows that Labour are in real tro

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  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Sean_F said:

    It's over now, for Labour, isn't it?

    Still six months until the next election. With most of the election remaining a two horse race between Labour and the Conservatives they could still benefit if the Tories manage to eff it up.
  • Time for a thread then on a Tory lead to counter the one OGH put up about the 1% Lead for the Reds being some relief for them...... just asking?

    You're being harsh on OGH.

    I got stick from some of PB's left leaning posters for covering the polls showing the Tories ahead a month ago.

    Time for "Oh My God, could Dan Hodges be right" thread
    TSE - Scrapheap's not being harsh on OGH at all - exactly the same thought struck me a couple of days ago when on the lead thread for the day we got the full Technicolor Bar Chart treatment yet again on the basis that Labour had taken a 1% lead lead in the daily YouGov/Sun poll. In fairness to Mike I don't think he realises he's doing it.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Tim_B said:

    I'm not a baseball fan, so didn't watch the World Series, but the awkwardness of the award ceremony afterward was hilarious. The Chevrolet zone manager presented a Chevy Colorado truck to the mvp, screwing up his presentation pitch utterly and embarassingly.

    Unfortunately, what wasn't mentioned but subsequently emerged, the player couldn't drive it as it has already been recalled.

    If you wanted sporting entertainment, you should have watched the Redskins game...
  • Ok my prediction for the post Rochester result polling.

    We will see some polls with the Tories, Lab and UKIP all in the 20s.
  • Plato said:

    I keep saying this - but I still can't quite believe it. EdM is less popular than Mr Cameron in Scotland.

    It's beyond the Laws of Physics for Labour - until now it seems.

    dr_spyn said:

    Harry Cole retweeted
    Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes 18m18 minutes ago
    Times/YouGov Scotland:
    How much do you trust:
    Nicola Sturgeon: 48%
    Gordon Brown: 37%
    Jim Murphy: 24%
    David Cameron: 19%
    Ed Miliband: 15%

    Right at the bottom of the heap, and Labour still want him to lead them into the next GE or over the next cliff.

    And not just any old Tory leader - easily their poshest leader since Alec Douglas-Home.......

    Yet the Tories are still longer than even money, so both of you stop wasting your time on here and pile in. I have!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @olyduff: Labour facing wipeout in Scottish heartlands http://t.co/aOaL6KpzVz
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937

    Pulpstar said:

    Defeat tommorow in the SYPCC by election would really top Ed's week off.

    A month to forget, really.
    September wasn't exactly a doozy for him either... Or maybe he has forgotten that too. Like the deficit and immigration....

  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    HYUFD said:

    'Curbing immigration would be a disaster' says Blair.

    'Let's be clear: We don't think that Ukip's right, not on immigration and not on Europe - so the first thing you've got to be really careful of doing is ... saying things that suggest that they're kind of justified in their policy because what you're actually going to do is validate their argument when in fact you don't believe in it.'
    Stopping immigration would be 'a disaster for this country', he said.
    Labour must not 'end up chasing after the policies of a party like Ukip, who you don't agree with, whose policies would take this country backwards economically, politically, in every conceivable way, and who, ultimately, at the heart of what they do, have a rather nasty core of prejudice that none of us believe in, which you've actually got to take on and fight. So the way to deal with this is to deal with it by what you believe'.
    Mr Blair claimed the way David Cameron is dealing with the threat from Ukip 'doesn't do them any electoral favours at all'.
    He claimed the Tories would be better off at the ballot box 'if they actually stood up against these people and said 'you don't understand the way the world works today, your policies will take us backwards and we're not going there'.'
    Mr Blair added: 'There's a huge desire in a large part of the media in this country to return British politics to a traditional Tory party fighting a traditional Labour party.'
    That would lead to a 'traditional result', he warned.


    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2814333/Curbing-immigration-disaster-Britain-says-Tony-Blair-warning-Labour-not-chase-Ukip-votes.html#ixzz3Hfdk52sL


    What a little sh1t.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Betfair offering 5/1 on Miliband failing to make it to May 2015.

    Lose in Yorkshire, routed in Rochester - surely, he'd fall on his sword?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    IIRC Freud said "Nothing happens by accident"

    Iain Dale @IainDale
    @schofieldkevin Possibly he, er, forgot...

    Kevin Schofield @schofieldkevin
    Did Ed Miliband really not mention Johann Lamont once in his speech to the Scottish Labour gala dinner?

    Nope. Not once.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/10/ed-milibands-speech-scottish-labours-gala-dinner-full-text
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    edited October 2014
    Carnyx said:

    saddened said:

    Tim_B said:

    dr_spyn said:

    alexmassie ‏@alexmassie 2m2 minutes ago
    Staggeringly* lacklustre and inadequate Ed Miliband speech in Glasgow tonight. *Entirely predictable. http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/10/ed-milibands-speech-scottish-labours-gala-dinner-full-text

    I went to read the article and found Why a woman having sex with a fake tiger shows that the Extreme Pornography Act must be repealed, so I still don't know what Ed said...
    It sounds as if the story you got was considerably more interesting than Ed's speech.
    It certainly is and not just for puss's comment: '“That beats doing Frosties ads for a living!”'

    Would you like to sin,
    with Elinor Glynn,
    on a tiger skin,
    or would you prefer,
    to err with her,
    on some other fur?
  • glwglw Posts: 9,954
    When Ed won the leadership election, thanks to the unions, and people here were laughing at the result, the Labour supporters thought we were laughing to wind them up, but they were wrong. The humour was genuine.

    Thank God for Ed Miliband, without him the Tories wouldn't have a chance.

  • Scott_P said:

    @Sun_Politics: Ed Miliband plunged into fresh leadership crisis after poll reveals Labour face almost total wipeout in Scotland: http://t.co/4poGpw9SVS

    SaveEd

    Can you précis the story as I don't have a Sun account? The bizarre thing for me is that despite this dire month the Tories remain underdogs for most seats and are longer than evens. Maybe Mike will be right after all.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Here is Ed's response to his problems in Scotland...

    @jonwalker121: Ed Miliband plans English Regional Cabinet bringing together council leaders and Cabinet Ministers http://t.co/TZdCKVpYob
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    HYUFD said:

    'Curbing immigration would be a disaster' says Blair.

    'Let's be clear: We don't think that Ukip's right, not on immigration and not on Europe - so the first thing you've got to be really careful of doing is ... saying things that suggest that they're kind of justified in their policy because what you're actually going to do is validate their argument when in fact you don't believe in it.'
    Stopping immigration would be 'a disaster for this country', he said.
    Labour must not 'end up chasing after the policies of a party like Ukip, who you don't agree with, whose policies would take this country backwards economically, politically, in every conceivable way, and who, ultimately, at the heart of what they do, have a rather nasty core of prejudice that none of us believe in, which you've actually got to take on and fight. So the way to deal with this is to deal with it by what you believe'.
    Mr Blair claimed the way David Cameron is dealing with the threat from Ukip 'doesn't do them any electoral favours at all'.
    He claimed the Tories would be better off at the ballot box 'if they actually stood up against these people and said 'you don't understand the way the world works today, your policies will take us backwards and we're not going there'.'
    Mr Blair added: 'There's a huge desire in a large part of the media in this country to return British politics to a traditional Tory party fighting a traditional Labour party.'
    That would lead to a 'traditional result', he warned.


    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2814333/Curbing-immigration-disaster-Britain-says-Tony-Blair-warning-Labour-not-chase-Ukip-votes.html#ixzz3Hfdk52sL

    It's too late now, Mr. Blair.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    Tonights YG LAB 315 CON 287 LD 19 Other 29 (ukpr)

    Ed is crap is PM and from now on will be referred to as Ed is absolutely Shite

    EIASIPM!!!

    Ed wouldn't be PM very long on those numbers (which are, in any case, a steaming pile of poo with just 29 Others, including 18 from NI, given what else we've been discussing this evening).
    UKPR doesnt really work well does it if Scotland votes as per todays 2 polls.

    OMG Hunt representing LAB on QT he rivals EIFS in terms of F'ing Shiteness.

    Time to join Mr Dancer in bed (not literally)
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337

    mandy rhodes @holyroodmandy · 3 mins 3 minutes ago

    So on @IpsosMORIScot poll @jimmurphymp would lose seat in #GE2015 sparking another leadership contest for @scottishlabour if he is leader

    (she is editor of Holyrood Magazine)
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,808
    I think I'm in love with Caroline Lucas.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173

    YG average Lab lead for October is now definitely only 1%

    So last 7 months are now 4,3,4,3,3,4,1

    So with 6 months to go November average will be crucial

    LAB need it to return to 3 CON need it to be no greater than 1.

    November could be crucial to GE2015 result.

    NOM is nailed on.

    Grand coalition - any takers? At the end of the day the Yookay is still massively indebted and like it or not we need a government that concentrates on that or as Fraser in Dad's army used to say " we're all doomed".
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    The trend is our friend.

    I expected Team Blue to be arse-whipped at GE2015 in 2010 - now it's all up for grabs.
    RodCrosby said:

    Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 21s21 seconds ago

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight: It's not getting any better for Ed Mili - Tories retake the lead. CON 33%, LAB 32%, UKIP 15%, GRN 7%, LDEM 7%.

    Twelfth poll in October to show Tories even or ahead...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    SeanT said:

    It's just occurred to me that Ed Miliband might be a bit crap.

    Bookmark that post Sean. You can refer back to it in May
  • Time for a thread then on a Tory lead to counter the one OGH put up about the 1% Lead for the Reds being some relief for them...... just asking?

    You're being harsh on OGH.

    I got stick from some of PB's left leaning posters for covering the polls showing the Tories ahead a month ago.

    Time for "Oh My God, could Dan Hodges be right" thread
    "God - Why is Dan Hodges always so right?"

    Following the still awaited and increasingly needed to turn it all around

    "Reckless the pig-dog traitor all set to lose Rochester" thread...

    Re OGH, I'm only slightly teasing.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Ok my prediction for the post Rochester result polling.

    We will see some polls with the Tories, Lab and UKIP all in the 20s.

    No offence but someone posted the same thing yesterday IIRC.
  • First Tory lead in any poll for over three weeks...
  • HughHugh Posts: 955
    Plato said:

    The trend is our friend.

    I expected Team Blue to be arse-whipped at GE2015 in 2010 - now it's all up for grabs.

    RodCrosby said:

    Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 21s21 seconds ago

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight: It's not getting any better for Ed Mili - Tories retake the lead. CON 33%, LAB 32%, UKIP 15%, GRN 7%, LDEM 7%.

    Twelfth poll in October to show Tories even or ahead...
    But your beloved Party is stuck at 30 or so, as it has been for years.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,960
    edited October 2014

    Time for a thread then on a Tory lead to counter the one OGH put up about the 1% Lead for the Reds being some relief for them...... just asking?

    You're being harsh on OGH.

    I got stick from some of PB's left leaning posters for covering the polls showing the Tories ahead a month ago.

    Time for "Oh My God, could Dan Hodges be right" thread
    TSE - Scrapheap's not being harsh on OGH at all - exactly the same thought struck me a couple of days ago when on the lead thread for the day we got the full Technicolor Bar Chart treatment yet again on the basis that Labour had taken a 1% lead lead in the daily YouGov/Sun poll. In fairness to Mike I don't think he realises he's doing it.
    In my experience, from editing PB, the most stressful time isn't when you've got an embargoed poll (and you're scared you're going to publish it prematurely) or writing a thread, it is working out what the topic of the thread is going to be.
  • HYUFD said:

    'Curbing immigration would be a disaster' says Blair.

    'Let's be clear: We don't think that Ukip's right, not on immigration and not on Europe - so the first thing you've got to be really careful of doing is ... saying things that suggest that they're kind of justified in their policy because what you're actually going to do is validate their argument when in fact you don't believe in it.'
    Stopping immigration would be 'a disaster for this country', he said.
    Labour must not 'end up chasing after the policies of a party like Ukip, who you don't agree with, whose policies would take this country backwards economically, politically, in every conceivable way, and who, ultimately, at the heart of what they do, have a rather nasty core of prejudice that none of us believe in, which you've actually got to take on and fight. So the way to deal with this is to deal with it by what you believe'.
    Mr Blair claimed the way David Cameron is dealing with the threat from Ukip 'doesn't do them any electoral favours at all'.
    He claimed the Tories would be better off at the ballot box 'if they actually stood up against these people and said 'you don't understand the way the world works today, your policies will take us backwards and we're not going there'.'
    Mr Blair added: 'There's a huge desire in a large part of the media in this country to return British politics to a traditional Tory party fighting a traditional Labour party.'
    That would lead to a 'traditional result', he warned.


    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2814333/Curbing-immigration-disaster-Britain-says-Tony-Blair-warning-Labour-not-chase-Ukip-votes.html#ixzz3Hfdk52sL

    Nobody to blame but himself and his party.
  • There is no chance of the Lib Dems losing either Orkney & Shetland or Ross & Skye. I suspect they will also hold NE Fife, Caithness & Sutherland, and probably Berwickshire R&S and Inverness Nairn B&S. The last two are less certain, but I would expect the Lib Dems to have 6 Scottish seats in 2015.

    The SNP will gain seats, but not many - if they increase from 6 to 12 they will have done well.

    The Tories are likely to have 2 - DCT and WAK - they have a chance in Argyle & Bute and Edinburgh West, but both of these will be difficult.

    I expect Labour to drop from 41 to 38 in Scotland.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    edited October 2014
    The one remaining thing that Ed Miliband can do is stay as leader till the next General Election.

    His crapness would be forgiven if that was the case.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    glw said:


    Thank God for Ed Miliband, without him the Tories wouldn't have a chance.

    You really think David Miliband or Ed Balls would be on the cusp of victory right now?

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    Ok my prediction for the post Rochester result polling.

    We will see some polls with the Tories, Lab and UKIP all in the 20s.

    You decided against wasting your time fighting the lost Rochester cause now?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    I think I'm in love with Caroline Lucas.

    She is having a good QT. I like her poppy arrangement too.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Labour faces near wipeout in Scotland next May in a setback that could cost Ed Miliband the general election, according to a new poll for The Times.

    Mr Miliband’s personal ratings have also plunged since the referendum seven weeks ago, the YouGov poll of Scottish voters has found. Only 15 per cent trust him, down from 25 per cent on the eve of the independence vote. Labour supporters are more likely to distrust him.
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4253393.ece
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    There is no chance of the Lib Dems losing either Orkney & Shetland or Ross & Skye. I suspect they will also hold NE Fife, Caithness & Sutherland, and probably Berwickshire R&S and Inverness Nairn B&S. The last two are less certain, but I would expect the Lib Dems to have 6 Scottish seats in 2015.

    The SNP will gain seats, but not many - if they increase from 6 to 12 they will have done well.

    The Tories are likely to have 2 - DCT and WAK - they have a chance in Argyle & Bute and Edinburgh West, but both of these will be difficult.

    I expect Labour to drop from 41 to 38 in Scotland.

    Ladbrokes as the SNP seat line at 20.5

    You'd better pile in my friend.
  • Ok my prediction for the post Rochester result polling.

    We will see some polls with the Tories, Lab and UKIP all in the 20s.

    I think you could be right there TSE. There is something up. Under conventional wisdom now the Tories are going to walk GE2015. Yet they are longer than even money. I have taken more but are we actually going to see an election where we end up with three parties within 5pts of 30%?
  • HughHugh Posts: 955

    First Tory lead in any poll for over three weeks...

    And as Mike Smithson rightly pointed out, if the lower Labour score is being driven by a slump in Scotland, then it's holding up disproportionately well elsewhere.

    Like the masses of marginals in England. As Lord Ashcroft has suggested...
  • Time for a thread then on a Tory lead to counter the one OGH put up about the 1% Lead for the Reds being some relief for them...... just asking?

    You're being harsh on OGH.

    I got stick from some of PB's left leaning posters for covering the polls showing the Tories ahead a month ago.

    Time for "Oh My God, could Dan Hodges be right" thread
    "God - Why is Dan Hodges always so right?"

    Following the still awaited and increasingly needed to turn it all around

    "Reckless the pig-dog traitor all set to lose Rochester" thread...

    Re OGH, I'm only slightly teasing.
    Sad news, I probably won't be able to go campaign in Rochester & Strood.

    So that's the election lost now without my campaigning skills.

    Probably just as well, if I had been in the same vicinity as Mark Reckless it might have gone a bit Martin Coxall/John Prescott
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tories are heading for most votes and most seats IMO but well short of a majority.
  • Ok my prediction for the post Rochester result polling.

    We will see some polls with the Tories, Lab and UKIP all in the 20s.

    I think you could be right there TSE. There is something up. Under conventional wisdom now the Tories are going to walk GE2015. Yet they are longer than even money. I have taken more but are we actually going to see an election where we end up with three parties within 5pts of 30%?
    They are longer than even money for MOST SEATS. That is food for thought.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    Scott_P said:

    Here is Ed's response to his problems in Scotland...

    @jonwalker121: Ed Miliband plans English Regional Cabinet bringing together council leaders and Cabinet Ministers http://t.co/TZdCKVpYob

    In other words a gerrymander to have England ruled largely by the big city Labour councils on local issues and Scottish MPS at the national level. What could possibly go wrong? Oh yes they won't have any Scottish MPs.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    AndyJS said:

    Tories are heading for most votes and most seats IMO but well short of a majority.

    Most votes for sure. Most seats is probably evens.
  • AndyJS said:

    Ok my prediction for the post Rochester result polling.

    We will see some polls with the Tories, Lab and UKIP all in the 20s.

    No offence but someone posted the same thing yesterday IIRC.
    Well I've not been on PB since Saturday night.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Plato said:

    The trend is our friend.

    I expected Team Blue to be arse-whipped at GE2015 in 2010 - now it's all up for grabs.

    RodCrosby said:

    Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 21s21 seconds ago

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight: It's not getting any better for Ed Mili - Tories retake the lead. CON 33%, LAB 32%, UKIP 15%, GRN 7%, LDEM 7%.

    Twelfth poll in October to show Tories even or ahead...
    You can say arse on radio and TV here but not ass. Butt is the usual substitution.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited October 2014
    That reminds me of one in the Guardian about specism [I've no idea if this is real word] and having sex with dolphins. I've no idea how I'd have sex with one or a lobster or crayfish - but the author seemed to be most annoyed about it.
    Saturday was a sad day for the ranks of Florida's zooists – people who have sex with other members of the animal kingdom. On 1 October, a state law went into effect that bars erotic contact between people and non-human animals, "however slight". The misdemeanor carries a jail sentence of up to one year.

    Mention of bestiality typically elicits comedic cracks on hillbillies, polemics, as well as a resurgent intellectual interest in the topic. Turns out, there is a vocal contingent of bestiality enthusiasts. They think that human-animal eroticism is misunderstood, and decry both social and legal opposition to bestiality as a limitation of sexual freedom – unfair government intrusion into their bedroom (or barn) activities.

    Just over a week ago, a dolphin-sex memoir surged in popularity. Malcolm Brenner, Wet Goddess author and bestiality advocate, wrote: "What is repulsive about a relationship where both partners feel and express love for each other?" Ethicist and animal rights activist Peter Singer got attention – and flak – for normalising bestiality in his 2001 essay "Heavy Petting". Cultural opposition to bestiality, he argued, is rooted in "speciesism". He argued that bestiality is moral so long as it's mutually pleasurable.
    Tim_B said:

    dr_spyn said:

    alexmassie ‏@alexmassie 2m2 minutes ago
    Staggeringly* lacklustre and inadequate Ed Miliband speech in Glasgow tonight. *Entirely predictable. http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/10/ed-milibands-speech-scottish-labours-gala-dinner-full-text

    I went to read the article and found Why a woman having sex with a fake tiger shows that the Extreme Pornography Act must be repealed, so I still don't know what Ed said...
  • Time for a thread then on a Tory lead to counter the one OGH put up about the 1% Lead for the Reds being some relief for them...... just asking?

    You're being harsh on OGH.

    I got stick from some of PB's left leaning posters for covering the polls showing the Tories ahead a month ago.

    Time for "Oh My God, could Dan Hodges be right" thread
    "God - Why is Dan Hodges always so right?"

    Following the still awaited and increasingly needed to turn it all around

    "Reckless the pig-dog traitor all set to lose Rochester" thread...

    Re OGH, I'm only slightly teasing.
    Sad news, I probably won't be able to go campaign in Rochester & Strood.

    So that's the election lost now without my campaigning skills.

    Probably just as well, if I had been in the same vicinity as Mark Reckless it might have gone a bit Martin Coxall/John Prescott
    The news that you weren't available was leaked this week and the Tory price instantly skyrocketed to 13-1
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    Tykejohnno/SeanF Indeed, Blair of course increased it in the first place, but he is a rich metropolitan liberal as he has always been so his views are no surprise.
  • HughHugh Posts: 955

    I think I'm in love with Caroline Lucas.

    She is having a good QT. I like her poppy arrangement too.
    She's great. Big fan of the white poppy.

    Good to see the Greens surging and not just the far-right nutjobs. And I don't mean Plato.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    AndyJS said:

    Tories are heading for most votes and most seats IMO but well short of a majority.

    Steam in Betfair most seats market quick then.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    HYUFD said:

    'Curbing immigration would be a disaster' says Blair.

    'Let's be clear: We don't think that Ukip's right, not on immigration and not on Europe - so the first thing you've got to be really careful of doing is ... saying things that suggest that they're kind of justified in the


    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2814333/Curbing-immigration-disaster-Britain-says-Tony-Blair-warning-Labour-not-chase-Ukip-votes.html#ixzz3Hfdk52sL

    Tony who?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MSmithsonPB: So is Scots LAB 29% behind (Ipsos-MORI) or 16% off as from the YouGov Scottish panel? Big differences from surveys at same time.

    @benatipsosmori: @MSmithsonPB ours started five days earlier. More Lamont in news. Bottom line is lab have probs
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Hugh said:

    And as Mike Smithson rightly pointed out, if the lower Labour score is being driven by a slump in Scotland, then it's holding up disproportionately well elsewhere.

    Like the masses of marginals in England. As Lord Ashcroft has suggested...

    Comfort blanket and teddy bear.


  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,808

    I think I'm in love with Caroline Lucas.

    She is having a good QT. I like her poppy arrangement too.
    I've been telling everyone I know that backing her to retain her seat is the best bet of GE15.
  • Time for a thread then on a Tory lead to counter the one OGH put up about the 1% Lead for the Reds being some relief for them...... just asking?

    You're being harsh on OGH.

    I got stick from some of PB's left leaning posters for covering the polls showing the Tories ahead a month ago.

    Time for "Oh My God, could Dan Hodges be right" thread
    "God - Why is Dan Hodges always so right?"

    Following the still awaited and increasingly needed to turn it all around

    "Reckless the pig-dog traitor all set to lose Rochester" thread...

    Re OGH, I'm only slightly teasing.
    Sad news, I probably won't be able to go campaign in Rochester & Strood.

    So that's the election lost now without my campaigning skills.

    Probably just as well, if I had been in the same vicinity as Mark Reckless it might have gone a bit Martin Coxall/John Prescott
    Explains the tory price on betfair... u could have warned me at your abject failure so I could reduce my exposure first!! Here's a tip - Villa to beat Spurs on sunday...
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    Hugh said:

    First Tory lead in any poll for over three weeks...

    And as Mike Smithson rightly pointed out, if the lower Labour score is being driven by a slump in Scotland, then it's holding up disproportionately well elsewhere.

    Like the masses of marginals in England. As Lord Ashcroft has suggested...
    Oh - of course - the out of date marginals polls - compared to all of today's polls - even you don't believe it any more.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    Scott_P said:

    Here is Ed's response to his problems in Scotland...

    @jonwalker121: Ed Miliband plans English Regional Cabinet bringing together council leaders and Cabinet Ministers http://t.co/TZdCKVpYob

    These proposals are nothing more than an exercise in long grass. Breathtakingly inadequate.
  • Peter Kellner in the Times

    Labour faces a double whammy in Scotland: it has lost support generally and it can no longer count on being saved by “red Nats” — people who back the SNP in Holyrood elections but stay loyal to Labour when choosing an MP to send to Westminster.

    ...Labour must face the hard truth that it is suffering not a brief setback but a more fundamental loss of respect. Just 31 per cent of Scots who voted Labour in 2010 now think the party “represents the views and interests of Scotland today” very or fairly well, while 59 per cent think the party does this job very or fairly badly. Those are truly terrible figures.
  • Plato said:

    The trend is our friend.

    I expected Team Blue to be arse-whipped at GE2015 in 2010 - now it's all up for grabs.

    RodCrosby said:

    Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 21s21 seconds ago

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight: It's not getting any better for Ed Mili - Tories retake the lead. CON 33%, LAB 32%, UKIP 15%, GRN 7%, LDEM 7%.

    Twelfth poll in October to show Tories even or ahead...
    In fairness there is no Tory trend – its been around the same figure for donkeys' years. That said, there is value so pile in at longer than even money on Tory Most Seats. I have smashed it this evening, following the Scottish news.
  • Ok my prediction for the post Rochester result polling.

    We will see some polls with the Tories, Lab and UKIP all in the 20s.

    I think you could be right there TSE. There is something up. Under conventional wisdom now the Tories are going to walk GE2015. Yet they are longer than even money. I have taken more but are we actually going to see an election where we end up with three parties within 5pts of 30%?
    They are longer than even money for MOST SEATS. That is food for thought.
    I've got more staked on this than on Reckless going down... ie Tory most seats.... 4 figures on that little baby.
  • Time for a thread then on a Tory lead to counter the one OGH put up about the 1% Lead for the Reds being some relief for them...... just asking?

    You're being harsh on OGH.

    I got stick from some of PB's left leaning posters for covering the polls showing the Tories ahead a month ago.

    Time for "Oh My God, could Dan Hodges be right" thread
    "God - Why is Dan Hodges always so right?"

    Following the still awaited and increasingly needed to turn it all around

    "Reckless the pig-dog traitor all set to lose Rochester" thread...

    Re OGH, I'm only slightly teasing.
    Sad news, I probably won't be able to go campaign in Rochester & Strood.

    So that's the election lost now without my campaigning skills.

    Probably just as well, if I had been in the same vicinity as Mark Reckless it might have gone a bit Martin Coxall/John Prescott
    Throwing in the towel already, TSE?

    :)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    AndyJS said:

    Tories are heading for most votes and most seats IMO but well short of a majority.

    Steam in Betfair most seats market quick then.
    What's amazing is that as Labour's vote evaporates like summer snow, the Betfair prices barely move.

    Changed my position to be broadly neutral on Lab-Con, pro SNP, pro UKIP.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited October 2014

    Truly dire polling for Labour at the moment, it has to be said. I don't see how they can shift it prior to the Rochester by-election and autumn statement. The aim now is simply to remain level pegging by Christmas and regroup in the New Year.

    Ed needs a rest.

    He doesn't need a rest, he needs to actually decide what the hell Labour is for in this day and age, and what a Labour government would actually do.

    I think I remember arguing with you during the conference season about Labour's problems? You were saying it was just a case of them "speaking up more", but I said then and still think now that the problem was not that they weren't getting in the media enough - EdM and shadow cabinet members are constantly giving media interviews. The problem is that they just don't say anything worthwhile or interesting. Which is a direct result of them not taking strong, distinctive positions on the key issues, mostly public spending and inequality. THAT is the key issue they need to sort out, the actual policies, before anything else. It's no good just speaking up and giving interviews and "getting out and meeting people" if all you're doing is gassing about how you're "listening to people" or talking about vague "change" without specifying what said change is.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337
    dr_spyn said:

    Carnyx said:

    saddened said:

    Tim_B said:

    dr_spyn said:

    alexmassie ‏@alexmassie 2m2 minutes ago
    Staggeringly* lacklustre and inadequate Ed Miliband speech in Glasgow tonight. *Entirely predictable. http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/10/ed-milibands-speech-scottish-labours-gala-dinner-full-text

    I went to read the article and found Why a woman having sex with a fake tiger shows that the Extreme Pornography Act must be repealed, so I still don't know what Ed said...
    It sounds as if the story you got was considerably more interesting than Ed's speech.
    It certainly is and not just for puss's comment: '“That beats doing Frosties ads for a living!”'

    Would you like to sin,
    with Elinor Glynn,
    on a tiger skin,
    or would you prefer,
    to err with her,
    on some other fur?
    I'd forgotten about that! Very apt. Your quotation made me realise I never knew the background, hence it has prompted a historical plowter which has turned up, re screen ladies and large felids,

    http://mrmhadams.typepad.com/blog/2012/12/walking-on-gold-with-stanford-white-the-distinctive-decore-of-the-town-and-country-house-of-a-decora.html

    and, for the lawyers

    http://ipkitten.blogspot.co.uk/2011/11/past-historic-4-would-you-like-to-sin.html (with linky to a fascinating academic article)

  • Ok my prediction for the post Rochester result polling.

    We will see some polls with the Tories, Lab and UKIP all in the 20s.

    I think you could be right there TSE. There is something up. Under conventional wisdom now the Tories are going to walk GE2015. Yet they are longer than even money. I have taken more but are we actually going to see an election where we end up with three parties within 5pts of 30%?
    They are longer than even money for MOST SEATS. That is food for thought.
    I've got more staked on this than on Reckless going down... ie Tory most seats.... 4 figures on that little baby.
    It may be a very wise investment. Just think if Labour takes a hit in Scotland, it won't be that tricky for the Tories to have most seats.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I'd say it was confirmation bias, we all do it.

    Time for a thread then on a Tory lead to counter the one OGH put up about the 1% Lead for the Reds being some relief for them...... just asking?

    You're being harsh on OGH.

    I got stick from some of PB's left leaning posters for covering the polls showing the Tories ahead a month ago.

    Time for "Oh My God, could Dan Hodges be right" thread
    TSE - Scrapheap's not being harsh on OGH at all - exactly the same thought struck me a couple of days ago when on the lead thread for the day we got the full Technicolor Bar Chart treatment yet again on the basis that Labour had taken a 1% lead lead in the daily YouGov/Sun poll. In fairness to Mike I don't think he realises he's doing it.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Hugh said:

    I think I'm in love with Caroline Lucas.

    She is having a good QT. I like her poppy arrangement too.
    She's great. Big fan of the white poppy.

    Good to see the Greens surging and not just the far-right nutjobs. And I don't mean Plato.
    The "Green surge" will amount to one seat at 2015 GE. One. And that a hold (and that despite the woeful record of the Green-led Brighton council).
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    11/8 still available on CON most seats.

    I have offset some of my balls deep LAB most seats in last few days.

    3 figure loss rather than 4 figures now if LAB don't get most seats.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Hugh said:

    Big fan of the white poppy

    @OliverKamm: White poppy created by Peace Pledge Union in 1930s, whose chair (Canon Stuart Morris) was member of pro-Nazi org.
  • Time for a thread then on a Tory lead to counter the one OGH put up about the 1% Lead for the Reds being some relief for them...... just asking?

    You're being harsh on OGH.

    I got stick from some of PB's left leaning posters for covering the polls showing the Tories ahead a month ago.

    Time for "Oh My God, could Dan Hodges be right" thread
    "God - Why is Dan Hodges always so right?"

    Following the still awaited and increasingly needed to turn it all around

    "Reckless the pig-dog traitor all set to lose Rochester" thread...

    Re OGH, I'm only slightly teasing.
    Sad news, I probably won't be able to go campaign in Rochester & Strood.

    So that's the election lost now without my campaigning skills.

    Probably just as well, if I had been in the same vicinity as Mark Reckless it might have gone a bit Martin Coxall/John Prescott
    Explains the tory price on betfair... u could have warned me at your abject failure so I could reduce my exposure first!! Here's a tip - Villa to beat Spurs on sunday...
    My footballing tips for the weekend.

    Barcodes to beat Liverpool

    Man U to beat Citeh

    and Villa to beat Spurs.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Hugh said:

    Plato said:

    The trend is our friend.

    I expected Team Blue to be arse-whipped at GE2015 in 2010 - now it's all up for grabs.

    RodCrosby said:

    Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 21s21 seconds ago

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight: It's not getting any better for Ed Mili - Tories retake the lead. CON 33%, LAB 32%, UKIP 15%, GRN 7%, LDEM 7%.

    Twelfth poll in October to show Tories even or ahead...
    But your beloved Party is stuck at 30 or so, as it has been for years.
    I can't remember the high point for Tories in Polls since 2010 election. Maybe you can remind me.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    All joshing aside, I wonder what Labourites are now thinking. If this was applied to the Tories in shire counties - I'd be thunderstruck.
    Scott_P said:

    @olyduff: Labour facing wipeout in Scottish heartlands http://t.co/aOaL6KpzVz

  • Scott_P said:

    @MSmithsonPB: So is Scots LAB 29% behind (Ipsos-MORI) or 16% off as from the YouGov Scottish panel? Big differences from surveys at same time.

    @benatipsosmori: @MSmithsonPB ours started five days earlier. More Lamont in news. Bottom line is lab have probs

    That's interesting. Would suggest a Labour recovery now Lamont is gone. Murphy possibly to turn it round then? I may have staked more on Tory Most Seats too soon.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BBCNewsnight: Psephologist John Curtice says Scottish Labour now has a challenge on its hands #Newsnight

    No Shit
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Hugh said:

    I think I'm in love with Caroline Lucas.

    She is having a good QT. I like her poppy arrangement too.
    She's great. Big fan of the white poppy.

    Good to see the Greens surging and not just the far-right nutjobs. And I don't mean Plato.
    Weren't you warned before about your pathetic attacks on plato ?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    Hugh said:

    First Tory lead in any poll for over three weeks...

    And as Mike Smithson rightly pointed out, if the lower Labour score is being driven by a slump in Scotland, then it's holding up disproportionately well elsewhere.

    Like the masses of marginals in England. As Lord Ashcroft has suggested...
    Labour are in freefall in Scotland. Wales is going South. The Home Counties are a write-off. So where are they holding up?
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Danny565 said:

    The problem is that they just don't say anything worthwhile or interesting. Which is a direct result of them not taking strong, distinctive positions on the key issues, mostly public spending and inequality. THAT is the key issue they need to sort out, the actual policies, before anything else.

    I'm not sure that promising consequence-free 10%+ deficits forever is going to boost their prospects.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 4m4 minutes ago
    Newport West (Telford & Wrekin):
    Independent GAIN from Conservative.

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 4m4 minutes ago
    Newport West (Telford & Wrekin) vote result:
    IND - 264
    CON - 179
    UKIP - 157
    LAB - 63
  • HughHugh Posts: 955
    Danny565 said:

    Truly dire polling for Labour at the moment, it has to be said. I don't see how they can shift it prior to the Rochester by-election and autumn statement. The aim now is simply to remain level pegging by Christmas and regroup in the New Year.

    Ed needs a rest.

    He doesn't need a rest, he needs to actually decide what the hell Labour is for in this day and age, and what a Labour government would actually do.

    I think I remember arguing with you during the conference season about Labour's problems? You were saying it was just a case of them "speaking up more", but I said then and still think now that the problem was not that they weren't getting in the media enough - EdM and shadow cabinet members are constantly giving media interviews. The problem is that they just don't say anything worthwhile or interesting. Which is a direct result of them not taking strong, distinctive positions on the key issues, mostly public spending and inequality. THAT is the key issue they need to sort out, the actual policies, before anything else. It's no good just speaking up and giving interviews and "getting out and meeting people" if all you're doing is gassing about how you're "listening to people" or talking about vague "change" without specifying what said change is.
    Agreed. More bashing Murdoch, less bashing immigrants.

    More energy price freezes, less benefit freezes.

    Learn from his big wins, best when he is bold.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Hugh said:

    I think I'm in love with Caroline Lucas.

    She is having a good QT. I like her poppy arrangement too.
    She's great. Big fan of the white poppy.

    Good to see the Greens surging and not just the far-right nutjobs. And I don't mean Plato.
    The "Green surge" will amount to one seat at 2015 GE. One. And that a hold (and that despite the woeful record of the Green-led Brighton council).
    I would think that in the febrile atmosphere and the former big three struggling to get out their vote that it will not just be kippers and SNP making gains.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    edited October 2014
    Sean_F said:

    Hugh said:

    First Tory lead in any poll for over three weeks...

    And as Mike Smithson rightly pointed out, if the lower Labour score is being driven by a slump in Scotland, then it's holding up disproportionately well elsewhere.

    Like the masses of marginals in England. As Lord Ashcroft has suggested...
    Labour are in freefall in Scotland. Wales is going South. The Home Counties are a write-off. So where are they holding up?
    Broxtowe.
    Ealing Central and Acton
    Brent
    Manchester Withington.

    I hope.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    EastWinger Indeed

    Kentrising Some Middle East Peace Envoy apparently, with a net worth of £60 million
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Hugh said:

    I think I'm in love with Caroline Lucas.

    She is having a good QT. I like her poppy arrangement too.
    She's great. Big fan of the white poppy.

    Good to see the Greens surging and not just the far-right nutjobs. And I don't mean Plato.
    The "Green surge" will amount to one seat at 2015 GE. One. And that a hold (and that despite the woeful record of the Green-led Brighton council).
    I can see them very possibly winning Norwich South.
  • AndyJS said:

    Tories are heading for most votes and most seats IMO but well short of a majority.

    Steam in Betfair most seats market quick then.
    Absolute free money for the PB Tories.

    Funny how actually backing it (like I have) makes you more circumspect.

    I am not including Andy in this of course but one of the real problems with this forum is people who make gushing pronouncements with not a bean of interest in backing their opinions with hard cash.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Hugh said:

    I think I'm in love with Caroline Lucas.

    She is having a good QT. I like her poppy arrangement too.
    She's great. Big fan of the white poppy.

    Good to see the Greens surging and not just the far-right nutjobs. And I don't mean Plato.
    Diddums is upset at the howwid howwid pollsters so he finds a girl to bully - that's three pops at Plato in this thread.

    Attractive.

  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

    CON LOSE to IND Newport West on Telford & Wrekin
    IND 264
    CON 179
    UKIP 157
    LAB 63

  • Tim_B said:

    Plato said:

    The trend is our friend.

    I expected Team Blue to be arse-whipped at GE2015 in 2010 - now it's all up for grabs.

    RodCrosby said:

    Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 21s21 seconds ago

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight: It's not getting any better for Ed Mili - Tories retake the lead. CON 33%, LAB 32%, UKIP 15%, GRN 7%, LDEM 7%.

    Twelfth poll in October to show Tories even or ahead...
    You can say arse on radio and TV here but not ass. Butt is the usual substitution.
    The American networks are ludicrously puritanical about such matters.
  • It might be better off to back the Tories not at most seats but in the individual seats markets.

    There's a few ricks there if the Tories are going to be the largest party.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I swear she dyes her own drab wardrobe using root vegetables. What is her allure? She puts me off being a lesbian.

    I think I'm in love with Caroline Lucas.

  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Pulpstar said:

    Broxtowe.

    Lab had a 13 point lead on the YG Midlands/Wales subsample in Feb 2013. Level now.

    Midlands today (recent averages):

    Populus 2.9 Tory lead
    Ashcroft 5.9 Tory lead
    ICM 2.5 Tory lead
    Ipsos 2.0 Tory lead
    ComRes 5.3 Tory lead
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Scott_P said:

    Hugh said:

    Big fan of the white poppy

    @OliverKamm: White poppy created by Peace Pledge Union in 1930s, whose chair (Canon Stuart Morris) was member of pro-Nazi org.
    There's pathetic and there's pathetic. At least Moniker does his SNP = Nazis thing with an element of humour.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Get the feeling Owen Patterson is going to have fun with his reply here.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Scott_P said:

    @BBCNewsnight: Psephologist John Curtice says Scottish Labour now has a challenge on its hands #Newsnight

    No Shit

    Curtice on the IPSOS Mori poll:

    There is though perhaps, reason for being a little cautious about the poll. Conducted as it was between last Wednesday and yesterday, many of the interviews will have been conducted just as the storm created by Johann Lamont’s resignation was at its height, thereby perhaps particularly depressing Labour support. Meanwhile it is not immediately obvious why Conservative support should have slumped to 10%, when all other recent polling evidence (including that from YouGov’s British polls) puts the party on or around the 17% it won in 2010. But even if the SNP surge is not on quite the scale that this poll suggests, there can now be little doubt that that Labour are at risk of suffering serious losses north of the border next May. Little wonder there was no immediate rush of volunteers to be the party’s next leader!

    http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/10/ipsos-mori-give-snp-record-westminster-poll-rating/
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Plato said:

    I swear she dyes her own drab wardrobe using root vegetables. What is her allure? She puts me off being a lesbian.

    I think I'm in love with Caroline Lucas.

    Lesbians can hold their liquor :-)
  • What ever happened to Labour's campaign to remove Lord Freud?

    I thought they were keeping on digging even after Question Time....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    chestnut said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Broxtowe.

    Lab had a 13 point lead on the YG Midlands/Wales subsample in Feb 2013. Level now.

    Midlands today (recent averages):

    Populus 2.9 Tory lead
    Ashcroft 5.9 Tory lead
    ICM 2.5 Tory lead
    Ipsos 2.0 Tory lead
    ComRes 5.3 Tory lead
    Still think Lab gain Broxtowe :)
  • Plato said:

    All joshing aside, I wonder what Labourites are now thinking. If this was applied to the Tories in shire counties - I'd be thunderstruck.

    Scott_P said:

    @olyduff: Labour facing wipeout in Scottish heartlands http://t.co/aOaL6KpzVz

    I'm driven mostly by the markets. I have taken Tory Most Seats, as it is clearly value at longer than evens. What price would you ended to back it?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Neil said:

    Danny565 said:

    The problem is that they just don't say anything worthwhile or interesting. Which is a direct result of them not taking strong, distinctive positions on the key issues, mostly public spending and inequality. THAT is the key issue they need to sort out, the actual policies, before anything else.

    I'm not sure that promising consequence-free 10%+ deficits forever is going to boost their prospects.
    Not in itself, no.

    Saying that there should be big public spending to help poor people and save public services (even if that comes with the unfortunate but manageable side-effect of big deficits), yes, it definitely would boost their prospects.

    The many people who've drifted away from Labour to the Greens, SNP and UKIP are not doing so because they're really craving "economic credibility" or think Labour is too left-wing (economically).
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    edited October 2014
    Danny565 said:

    Truly dire polling for Labour at the moment, it has to be said. I don't see how they can shift it prior to the Rochester by-election and autumn statement. The aim now is simply to remain level pegging by Christmas and regroup in the New Year.

    Ed needs a rest.

    He doesn't need a rest, he needs to actually decide what the hell Labour is for in this day and age, and what a Labour government would actually do.

    I think I remember arguing with you during the conference season about Labour's problems? You were saying it was just a case of them "speaking up more", but I said then and still think now that the problem was not that they weren't getting in the media enough - EdM and shadow cabinet members are constantly giving media interviews. The problem is that they just don't say anything worthwhile or interesting. Which is a direct result of them not taking strong, distinctive positions on the key issues, mostly public spending and inequality. THAT is the key issue they need to sort out, the actual policies, before anything else. It's no good just speaking up and giving interviews and "getting out and meeting people" if all you're doing is gassing about how you're "listening to people" or talking about vague "change" without specifying what said change is.
    This latest Labour incarnation is the most vacuous set of pointless politicians ever assembled in UK electoral history. No one knows - or cares - what they are for, including, it seems, them.

    Now the Scots are no longer interested in propping them up, it will be clear for all to see that the Labour party is slipping into total and irrevocable irrelevance;swilling, not before time, down the great plughole of history.

    All they have left is the immigrant vote in cities, and the Primrose Hill/Notting Hill/Hampstead/Dulwich New Statesman-reading guilt-nexus in London.
  • Plato said:

    All joshing aside, I wonder what Labourites are now thinking. If this was applied to the Tories in shire counties - I'd be thunderstruck.

    Scott_P said:

    @olyduff: Labour facing wipeout in Scottish heartlands http://t.co/aOaL6KpzVz

    I'm driven mostly by the markets. I have taken Tory Most Seats, as it is clearly value at longer than evens. What price would you need to back it?
  • HughHugh Posts: 955
    Plato said:

    All joshing aside, I wonder what Labourites are now thinking. If this was applied to the Tories in shire counties - I'd be thunderstruck.

    Scott_P said:

    @olyduff: Labour facing wipeout in Scottish heartlands http://t.co/aOaL6KpzVz

    Don't you come across any Labour opinions when you're going about your wide political floating voter Tory member reading rounds?

    In short: we're worried. But laughing at over-excited ignorant Tories at the same time, because we understand what's happening.

    (always wrong, never learn)
  • Sean_F said:

    Hugh said:

    First Tory lead in any poll for over three weeks...

    And as Mike Smithson rightly pointed out, if the lower Labour score is being driven by a slump in Scotland, then it's holding up disproportionately well elsewhere.

    Like the masses of marginals in England. As Lord Ashcroft has suggested...
    Labour are in freefall in Scotland. Wales is going South. The Home Counties are a write-off. So where are they holding up?
    In Hugh's head.
This discussion has been closed.