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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov poll for the Times shows that Labour are in real tro

SystemSystem Posts: 12,213
edited October 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov poll for the Times shows that Labour are in real trouble in Scotland

Times / YouGov Scotland gen elec poll
SNP: 43% (47 seats)
Labour: 27% (10 seats)
C: 15% (1 seat)
LD: 4% (1 seat)
1,078 adults Oct 27-30

Read the full story here


«134

Comments

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    The Yougov poll looks more accurate to me, 6% looked a touch high for the Lib Dems in Scotland on the IPSOS poll.

    4% is more comfortable given how much I'm betting against them in Scotland.
  • Iain Dale @IainDale
    @schofieldkevin Possibly he, er, forgot...

    Kevin Schofield @schofieldkevin
    Did Ed Miliband really not mention Johann Lamont once in his speech to the Scottish Labour gala dinner?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.pl?CON=15&LAB=27&LIB=4&NAT=43&region=AllScotland&boundary=2010&seat=All+Scotland+seats+majority-sorted

    Lib Dems lose Orkney and Shetland according to Electoral Calculus, though I suspect if this were the result in practice, the SNP would penetrate slightly deeper into Labour heartlands but fail to take Orkney and Shetland. (Glasgow East springs to mind...)
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Electoral Calculus gives a 30% better seat return for LAB than that and a TORY and LD free Scotland.

    Tonights YG SNP 46 LAB 13 CON 0 LD 0

    9 LAB Gains in 9 hours

    Ed is Crap is PM if trend coninues for a further 36hrs!!!
  • No Holyrood VI poll? Probably for the best.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    edited October 2014

    Electoral Calculus gives a 30% better seat return for LAB than that and a TORY and LD free Scotland.

    Tonights YG SNP 46 LAB 13 CON 0 LD 0

    9 LAB Gains in 9 hours

    Ed is Crap is PM if trend coninues for a further 36hrs!!!

    Do you seriously believe the Lib Dems will lose Orkney and Shetland ?

    The Electoral Calculus model is if anything too generous to Labour !
  • HughHugh Posts: 955
    They'll be fine. They'll have to scrap, but they will, and they'll be OK.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    Pulpstar said:

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.pl?CON=15&LAB=27&LIB=4&NAT=43&region=AllScotland&boundary=2010&seat=All+Scotland+seats+majority-sorted

    Lib Dems lose Orkney and Shetland according to Electoral Calculus, though I suspect if this were the result in practice, the SNP would penetrate slightly deeper into Labour heartlands but fail to take Orkney and Shetland. (Glasgow East springs to mind...)

    I actually suspect these sort of polls could eventually firm up the 2 seats the conservatives are likely to get in 2015. The borders might well swing right against the SNP tide. I'm also certain the LDs will keep Orkeny and Shetland.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    alexmassie ‏@alexmassie 2m2 minutes ago
    Staggeringly* lacklustre and inadequate Ed Miliband speech in Glasgow tonight. *Entirely predictable. http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/10/ed-milibands-speech-scottish-labours-gala-dinner-full-text
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Harry Cole retweeted
    Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes 18m18 minutes ago
    Times/YouGov Scotland:
    How much do you trust:
    Nicola Sturgeon: 48%
    Gordon Brown: 37%
    Jim Murphy: 24%
    David Cameron: 19%
    Ed Miliband: 15%

    Right at the bottom of the heap, and Labour still want him to lead them into the next GE or over the next cliff.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    dr_spyn said:

    alexmassie ‏@alexmassie 2m2 minutes ago
    Staggeringly* lacklustre and inadequate Ed Miliband speech in Glasgow tonight. *Entirely predictable. http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/10/ed-milibands-speech-scottish-labours-gala-dinner-full-text

    Alex Massie - the master of understatement:).
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    Hugh said:

    They'll be fine. They'll have to scrap, but they will, and they'll be OK.

    The problem with seats that have been safe for decades is that activists have absolutely no idea how to scrap; they've never needed to, other than among themselves.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    felix said:

    Pulpstar said:

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.pl?CON=15&LAB=27&LIB=4&NAT=43&region=AllScotland&boundary=2010&seat=All+Scotland+seats+majority-sorted

    Lib Dems lose Orkney and Shetland according to Electoral Calculus, though I suspect if this were the result in practice, the SNP would penetrate slightly deeper into Labour heartlands but fail to take Orkney and Shetland. (Glasgow East springs to mind...)

    I actually suspect these sort of polls could eventually firm up the 2 seats the conservatives are likely to get in 2015. The borders might well swing right against the SNP tide. I'm also certain the LDs will keep Orkeny and Shetland.
    Might have a chance of holding Ross, Skye and Lochaber too.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    Hugh said:

    They'll be fine. They'll have to scrap, but they will, and they'll be OK.

    awww bless.
  • Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 21s21 seconds ago

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight: It's not getting any better for Ed Mili - Tories retake the lead. CON 33%, LAB 32%, UKIP 15%, GRN 7%, LDEM 7%.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    dr_spyn said:

    alexmassie ‏@alexmassie 2m2 minutes ago
    Staggeringly* lacklustre and inadequate Ed Miliband speech in Glasgow tonight. *Entirely predictable. http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/10/ed-milibands-speech-scottish-labours-gala-dinner-full-text

    Just interviewed Miliband on Sky. He couldn't stop smirking for some bizarre reason...
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight: It's not getting any better for Ed Mili - Tories retake the lead. CON 33%, LAB 32%, UKIP 15%, GRN 7%, LDEM 7%

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Tom Newton Dunn: YouGov/Sun poll tonight: It's not getting any better for Ed Mili - Tories retake the lead. CON 33%, LAB 32%, UKIP 15%, GRN 7%, LDEM 7%.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Defeat tommorow in the SYPCC by election would really top Ed's week off.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    edited October 2014
    CON lead with YouGov
  • Update

    Just stuck in the Daily YouGov
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173

    Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 21s21 seconds ago

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight: It's not getting any better for Ed Mili - Tories retake the lead. CON 33%, LAB 32%, UKIP 15%, GRN 7%, LDEM 7%.

    Lol - you couldn't make it up - come on BJO - get your Baxter out quick!
  • Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 21s21 seconds ago

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight: It's not getting any better for Ed Mili - Tories retake the lead. CON 33%, LAB 32%, UKIP 15%, GRN 7%, LDEM 7%.

    This is SO NOT FAIR.

    CROSSOVER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Please note Sunil...
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Pulpstar said:

    Electoral Calculus gives a 30% better seat return for LAB than that and a TORY and LD free Scotland.

    Tonights YG SNP 46 LAB 13 CON 0 LD 0

    9 LAB Gains in 9 hours

    Ed is Crap is PM if trend coninues for a further 36hrs!!!

    Do you seriously believe the Lib Dems will lose Orkney and Shetland ?

    The Electoral Calculus model is if anything too generous to Labour !
    Not sure but i cant think Scots LD voters take kindly to LD in Govt with the "F ing Tories" so anything is possible IMO
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245

    Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 21s21 seconds ago

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight: It's not getting any better for Ed Mili - Tories retake the lead. CON 33%, LAB 32%, UKIP 15%, GRN 7%, LDEM 7%.

    Ed is still useless and dragging his party to defeat. But hilariously they've left it too late to bin him.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,808
    edited October 2014
    Who'd have thunk that Labour would be the biggest casualties of the dire better together campaign. Although it makes sense in retrospect.

    Have to say I'm praying for an outcome of the next election that enables Con a majority only in coalition with the SNP. Now that will be popcorn time.
  • Time for a thread then on a Tory lead to counter the one OGH put up about the 1% Lead for the Reds being some relief for them...... just asking?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Iain Dale @IainDale
    @schofieldkevin Possibly he, er, forgot...

    Kevin Schofield @schofieldkevin
    Did Ed Miliband really not mention Johann Lamont once in his speech to the Scottish Labour gala dinner?

    Nope. Not once.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/10/ed-milibands-speech-scottish-labours-gala-dinner-full-text
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 21s21 seconds ago

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight: It's not getting any better for Ed Mili - Tories retake the lead. CON 33%, LAB 32%, UKIP 15%, GRN 7%, LDEM 7%.

    Twelfth poll in October to show Tories even or ahead...
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173

    Pulpstar said:

    Electoral Calculus gives a 30% better seat return for LAB than that and a TORY and LD free Scotland.

    Tonights YG SNP 46 LAB 13 CON 0 LD 0

    9 LAB Gains in 9 hours

    Ed is Crap is PM if trend coninues for a further 36hrs!!!

    Do you seriously believe the Lib Dems will lose Orkney and Shetland ?

    The Electoral Calculus model is if anything too generous to Labour !
    Not sure but i cant think Scots LD voters take kindly to LD in Govt with the "F ing Tories" so anything is possible IMO
    Orkeny and Shetland is a tiny electorate and in many ways not really Scottish .
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    dr_spyn said:

    alexmassie ‏@alexmassie 2m2 minutes ago
    Staggeringly* lacklustre and inadequate Ed Miliband speech in Glasgow tonight. *Entirely predictable. http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/10/ed-milibands-speech-scottish-labours-gala-dinner-full-text

    I went to read the article and found Why a woman having sex with a fake tiger shows that the Extreme Pornography Act must be repealed, so I still don't know what Ed said...
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834

    Pulpstar said:

    Electoral Calculus gives a 30% better seat return for LAB than that and a TORY and LD free Scotland.

    Tonights YG SNP 46 LAB 13 CON 0 LD 0

    9 LAB Gains in 9 hours

    Ed is Crap is PM if trend coninues for a further 36hrs!!!

    Do you seriously believe the Lib Dems will lose Orkney and Shetland ?

    The Electoral Calculus model is if anything too generous to Labour !
    Not sure but i cant think Scots LD voters take kindly to LD in Govt with the "F ing Tories" so anything is possible IMO
    Scotland is a very diverse place and not everywhere has the attitude of East Glasgow.
  • Who'd have thunk that Labour would be the biggest casualties of the dire better together campaign. Although it makes sense in retrospect.

    Have to say I'm praying for the outcome of the next election that enables Con a majority in coalition with the SNP. Now that will be popcorn time.

    For Labour the best result would be a Con/DUP alliance and SNP not voting on English matters.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    All hail Cameron the king !

    Must admit does feel good to have a vaguely pro-Tory betting position again.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,972
    FPT

    Out of the ashes perhaps some good news.......

    Gordon might be persuaded to pick up the batton....

    I am not a fan of Murphy. His views on Israel are very similar to those of Maureen Lipman but with more dubious motives
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    Pulpstar said:

    Defeat tommorow in the SYPCC by election would really top Ed's week off.

    A month to forget, really.
  • HughHugh Posts: 955

    Hugh said:

    They'll be fine. They'll have to scrap, but they will, and they'll be OK.

    The problem with seats that have been safe for decades is that activists have absolutely no idea how to scrap; they've never needed to, other than among themselves.
    Yeah that's a fair point. An issue that came to light during the referendum.

    The flip side is, the SNP will be reliant on converts, first-timers, wild eyed optimists, people who in the end can't be bothered. It's not the referendum all over again, it's a general election.

    Enjoy it, just as we're enjoying Tory bewilderment at the battering you're taking from UKIP in even more (and more important) seats!
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    oh dear not a good day nor Ed but then he is unthinkable as Prime Minister.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Woolf, Woolf, Woolf.

    Telegraph imply that there was a Home Office cover up re links with a former Tory Minister.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Craig Woodhouse @craigawoodhouse

    Labour email arrives with quote from Yvette Cooper, "shadow foreign secretary". Have I missed a reshuffle?

  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Most amusing - unless you're Ed Milliband of course
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    Tim_B said:

    dr_spyn said:

    alexmassie ‏@alexmassie 2m2 minutes ago
    Staggeringly* lacklustre and inadequate Ed Miliband speech in Glasgow tonight. *Entirely predictable. http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/10/ed-milibands-speech-scottish-labours-gala-dinner-full-text

    I went to read the article and found Why a woman having sex with a fake tiger shows that the Extreme Pornography Act must be repealed, so I still don't know what Ed said...
    It sounds as if the story you got was considerably more interesting than Ed's speech.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    It's over now, for Labour, isn't it?
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Pulpstar said:

    Electoral Calculus gives a 30% better seat return for LAB than that and a TORY and LD free Scotland.

    Tonights YG SNP 46 LAB 13 CON 0 LD 0

    9 LAB Gains in 9 hours

    Ed is Crap is PM if trend coninues for a further 36hrs!!!

    Do you seriously believe the Lib Dems will lose Orkney and Shetland ?

    The Electoral Calculus model is if anything too generous to Labour !
    Not sure but i cant think Scots LD voters take kindly to LD in Govt with the "F ing Tories" so anything is possible IMO
    Scotland is a very diverse place and not everywhere has the attitude of East Glasgow.
    But the weather is miserable everywhere
  • Time for a thread then on a Tory lead to counter the one OGH put up about the 1% Lead for the Reds being some relief for them...... just asking?

    You're being harsh on OGH.

    I got stick from some of PB's left leaning posters for covering the polls showing the Tories ahead a month ago.

    Time for "Oh My God, could Dan Hodges be right" thread
  • HughHugh Posts: 955
    For goodness sake PBTories, calm down.

    PB hasn't stank this hormonal since, ooh, at least a couple of weeks ago after Dave's tax cutting "game changer".
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    felix said:

    Pulpstar said:

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.pl?CON=15&LAB=27&LIB=4&NAT=43&region=AllScotland&boundary=2010&seat=All+Scotland+seats+majority-sorted

    Lib Dems lose Orkney and Shetland according to Electoral Calculus, though I suspect if this were the result in practice, the SNP would penetrate slightly deeper into Labour heartlands but fail to take Orkney and Shetland. (Glasgow East springs to mind...)

    I actually suspect these sort of polls could eventually firm up the 2 seats the conservatives are likely to get in 2015. The borders might well swing right against the SNP tide. I'm also certain the LDs will keep Orkeny and Shetland.
    The SNP aren't as strong in the Borders as across most of Scotland so a Lab-SNP swing there may enable the Tories to take some seats through the middle (or round the side?), particularly if they can squeeze some of the LD vote too.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Sean_F said:

    It's over now, for Labour, isn't it?

    It was over the day Ed won...
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    Roger said:

    FPT

    Out of the ashes perhaps some good news.......

    Gordon might be persuaded to pick up the batton....

    I am not a fan of Murphy. His views on Israel are very similar to those of Maureen Lipman but with more dubious motives

    Ugh - what a nasty comment - care to explain it.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    RodCrosby said:

    Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 21s21 seconds ago

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight: It's not getting any better for Ed Mili - Tories retake the lead. CON 33%, LAB 32%, UKIP 15%, GRN 7%, LDEM 7%.

    Twelfth poll in October to show Tories even or ahead...
    How's compouter taking it?

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Tonights YG LAB 315 CON 287 LD 19 Other 29 (ukpr)

    Ed is crap is PM and from now on will be referred to as Ed is absolutely Shite

    EIASIPM!!!
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    David Axelrod's response to today's youtube.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uACvFAm6JSM
  • JPJ2JPJ2 Posts: 380
    I see Miliband is channelling Cameron now (presumably as Cameron is more popular in Scotland), and plans to fight with "every fibre of his being"
  • HughHugh Posts: 955

    Time for a thread then on a Tory lead to counter the one OGH put up about the 1% Lead for the Reds being some relief for them...... just asking?

    You're being harsh on OGH.

    I got stick from some of PB's left leaning posters for covering the polls showing the Tories ahead a month ago.

    Time for "Oh My God, could Dan Hodges be right" thread
    Nah, I'm sure at least one of the four didn't give you stick for it.
  • Truly dire polling for Labour at the moment, it has to be said. I don't see how they can shift it prior to the Rochester by-election and autumn statement. The aim now is simply to remain level pegging by Christmas and regroup in the New Year.

    Ed needs a rest.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    Hugh said:

    Hugh said:

    They'll be fine. They'll have to scrap, but they will, and they'll be OK.

    The problem with seats that have been safe for decades is that activists have absolutely no idea how to scrap; they've never needed to, other than among themselves.
    Yeah that's a fair point. An issue that came to light during the referendum.

    The flip side is, the SNP will be reliant on converts, first-timers, wild eyed optimists, people who in the end can't be bothered. It's not the referendum all over again, it's a general election.

    Enjoy it, just as we're enjoying Tory bewilderment at the battering you're taking from UKIP in even more (and more important) seats!
    That post is so funny and yet sad on so many levels.
  • Tonights YG LAB 315 CON 287 LD 19 Other 29 (ukpr)

    Ed is crap is PM and from now on will be referred to as Ed is absolutely Shite

    EIASIPM!!!

    Knock off the 40 seats Lab lose to the SNP......
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,808
    Scott_P said:

    Sean_F said:

    It's over now, for Labour, isn't it?

    It was over the day Ed won...
    Increasingly think Labour doesn't want to win the next election, and tbh it mightn't be wrong to think like that. Better for the right to kill itself over Europe and Austerity eh?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Disappointing that the South Yorkshire result isn't coming through tonight.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    Felix (previous thread) Murphy's will be running for Holyrood 2016, not No 10 2015
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I keep saying this - but I still can't quite believe it. EdM is less popular than Mr Cameron in Scotland.

    It's beyond the Laws of Physics for Labour - until now it seems.
    dr_spyn said:

    Harry Cole retweeted
    Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes 18m18 minutes ago
    Times/YouGov Scotland:
    How much do you trust:
    Nicola Sturgeon: 48%
    Gordon Brown: 37%
    Jim Murphy: 24%
    David Cameron: 19%
    Ed Miliband: 15%

    Right at the bottom of the heap, and Labour still want him to lead them into the next GE or over the next cliff.

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    felix said:

    Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 21s21 seconds ago

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight: It's not getting any better for Ed Mili - Tories retake the lead. CON 33%, LAB 32%, UKIP 15%, GRN 7%, LDEM 7%.

    Lol - you couldn't make it up - come on BJO - get your Baxter out quick!
    Its out

    EIFSIPM
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    How the UK government's hefty Brussels bill could lead us to an EU exit

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/10/how-uk-governments-hefty-brussels-bill-could-lead-us-eu-exit
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    edited October 2014

    Truly dire polling for Labour at the moment, it has to be said. I don't see how they can shift it prior to the Rochester by-election and autumn statement. The aim now is simply to remain level pegging by Christmas and regroup in the New Year.

    Ed needs a rest.

    Yes - until next June maybe - that should do it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    TSE/BJOs If the Tories win the popular vote the LDs may decide to stick with them and given Labour's likely above average loss in Scotland together they could well outpoll Labour, the SNP may agree to accept such a result with EVEL in return for Devomax
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    Tonights YG LAB 315 CON 287 LD 19 Other 29 (ukpr)

    Ed is crap is PM and from now on will be referred to as Ed is absolutely Shite

    EIASIPM!!!

    Knock off the 40 seats Lab lose to the SNP......
    I'm glad that I took -£7/+£500 of Lab votes/Con seats to make my "hole" in that particular direction -£40 overall and not -£540.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564
    Yep, 1 point lead - must set up a rival soothsayer business to SeanT. (Though I did mean 1 point the other way.)
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    The £25 I paid joining Team Blue feels so good right now.


    Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight: It's not getting any better for Ed Mili - Tories retake the lead. CON 33%, LAB 32%, UKIP 15%, GRN 7%, LDEM 7%

  • HughHugh Posts: 955
    I still can't quite believe it

    Nor, obviously, understand it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    Yep, 1 point lead - must set up a rival soothsayer business to SeanT. (Though I did mean 1 point the other way.)

    I think you'll get in still Nick.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Yep, 1 point lead - must set up a rival soothsayer business to SeanT. (Though I did mean 1 point the other way.)

    :-)

    After Sean's antics earlier, a word for Jack W, who was not only steadfast and unwavering in his conviction that No would prevail, he has also been resolute from the start that

    Ed Miliband Will Never Be PM
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    HYUFD said:

    TSE/BJOs If the Tories win the popular vote the LDs may decide to stick with them and given Labour's likely above average loss in Scotland together they could well outpoll Labour, the SNP may agree to accept such a result with EVEL in return for Devomax

    Which is a good reason for Tories to stay loyal in May and not vote tactically....
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @thetimes: Tomorrow's front page:
    Wipeout for Labour looms in Scotland http://t.co/8bEFJwsgAI http://t.co/MwaQAkt9Ns
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Ed Miliband the Labour leader that lost Scotland.

    Fucking Scotland !!!!!!!!!!!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    Looks like Labour's floorboards are getting a good test.

    Watch out for that trapdoor Mr Mili........oooops.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tories have moved out to 6 with Betfair for winning a majority:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/market?marketId=1.101416490
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    Perhaps 32% is the next firewall. Labour can get a sort of lead, in seats, on 32%.

    Unless, their Scottish position collapses.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834

    Tonights YG LAB 315 CON 287 LD 19 Other 29 (ukpr)

    Ed is crap is PM and from now on will be referred to as Ed is absolutely Shite

    EIASIPM!!!

    Ed wouldn't be PM very long on those numbers (which are, in any case, a steaming pile of poo with just 29 Others, including 18 from NI, given what else we've been discussing this evening).
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Yet Zen will remain in charge. I can honestly say I've never experienced one. I run at full-tilt all the time.
    Pulpstar said:

    Defeat tommorow in the SYPCC by election would really top Ed's week off.

  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    HYUFD said:

    Felix (previous thread) Murphy's will be running for Holyrood 2016, not No 10 2015

    Yes I know - that is what I meant and I don't feel there is much evidence that he fits the Scottish mood at the moment - the country is veering ever leftwards - except at the fringes and Sturgeon will lead the SNP and potentially hoover up 20-30 of the Slab seats. Murphy is not the one to stop it.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Plato said:

    I keep saying this - but I still can't quite believe it. EdM is less popular than Mr Cameron in Scotland.

    It's beyond the Laws of Physics for Labour - until now it seems.

    dr_spyn said:

    Harry Cole retweeted
    Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes 18m18 minutes ago
    Times/YouGov Scotland:
    How much do you trust:
    Nicola Sturgeon: 48%
    Gordon Brown: 37%
    Jim Murphy: 24%
    David Cameron: 19%
    Ed Miliband: 15%

    Right at the bottom of the heap, and Labour still want him to lead them into the next GE or over the next cliff.

    Not quite true. The question was on trustworthiness not popularity.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Sun_Politics: Ed Miliband plunged into fresh leadership crisis after poll reveals Labour face almost total wipeout in Scotland: http://t.co/4poGpw9SVS

    SaveEd
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    Tonights YG LAB 315 CON 287 LD 19 Other 29 (ukpr)

    Ed is crap is PM and from now on will be referred to as Ed is absolutely Shite

    EIASIPM!!!

    Knock off the 40 seats Lab lose to the SNP......
    Exactly. And could you imagine the chaos at Westminster next May if 47 SNP MP's turned up there? You have to laugh at the sheer ineptitude of the Labour party not to see this coming all along! Can't wait to see the seat by seat betting odds when Ladbrokes puts up its markets again - SNP to be favourite in some of the Glasgow seats now. Whatever, I can't wait for some of the breathtaking swings in the central belt that we're likely to witness next May. Probably markedly more than the 20% Tory to Labour swing in Harrow West in 1997.
  • EMWNBPM

    Should be obvious to everyone

    even Hugh
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    AndyJS said:

    Tories have moved out to 6 with Betfair for winning a majority:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/market?marketId=1.101416490

    It's a bit long. But probably about right, the Labour position OTOH is too short.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337
    saddened said:

    Tim_B said:

    dr_spyn said:

    alexmassie ‏@alexmassie 2m2 minutes ago
    Staggeringly* lacklustre and inadequate Ed Miliband speech in Glasgow tonight. *Entirely predictable. http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/10/ed-milibands-speech-scottish-labours-gala-dinner-full-text

    I went to read the article and found Why a woman having sex with a fake tiger shows that the Extreme Pornography Act must be repealed, so I still don't know what Ed said...
    It sounds as if the story you got was considerably more interesting than Ed's speech.
    It certainly is and not just for puss's comment: '“That beats doing Frosties ads for a living!”'

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    edited October 2014
    'Curbing immigration would be a disaster' says Blair.

    'Let's be clear: We don't think that Ukip's right, not on immigration and not on Europe - so the first thing you've got to be really careful of doing is ... saying things that suggest that they're kind of justified in their policy because what you're actually going to do is validate their argument when in fact you don't believe in it.'
    Stopping immigration would be 'a disaster for this country', he said.
    Labour must not 'end up chasing after the policies of a party like Ukip, who you don't agree with, whose policies would take this country backwards economically, politically, in every conceivable way, and who, ultimately, at the heart of what they do, have a rather nasty core of prejudice that none of us believe in, which you've actually got to take on and fight. So the way to deal with this is to deal with it by what you believe'.
    Mr Blair claimed the way David Cameron is dealing with the threat from Ukip 'doesn't do them any electoral favours at all'.
    He claimed the Tories would be better off at the ballot box 'if they actually stood up against these people and said 'you don't understand the way the world works today, your policies will take us backwards and we're not going there'.'
    Mr Blair added: 'There's a huge desire in a large part of the media in this country to return British politics to a traditional Tory party fighting a traditional Labour party.'
    That would lead to a 'traditional result', he warned.


    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2814333/Curbing-immigration-disaster-Britain-says-Tony-Blair-warning-Labour-not-chase-Ukip-votes.html#ixzz3Hfdk52sL
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    YG average Lab lead for October is now definitely only 1%

    So last 7 months are now 4,3,4,3,3,4,1

    So with 6 months to go November average will be crucial

    LAB need it to return to 3 CON need it to be no greater than 1.

    November could be crucial to GE2015 result.
  • Fat_SteveFat_Steve Posts: 361
    dr_spyn said:

    alexmassie ‏@alexmassie 2m2 minutes ago
    Staggeringly* lacklustre and inadequate Ed Miliband speech in Glasgow tonight. *Entirely predictable. http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/10/ed-milibands-speech-scottish-labours-gala-dinner-full-text

    I've just read that. If those really are the words that he delivered, that is very poor. It reads like a bad TV scriptwriter's idea of a speech a politician would make.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Plato said:

    I keep saying this - but I still can't quite believe it. EdM is less popular than Mr Cameron in Scotland.

    It's beyond the Laws of Physics for Labour - until now it seems.

    dr_spyn said:

    Harry Cole retweeted
    Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes 18m18 minutes ago
    Times/YouGov Scotland:
    How much do you trust:
    Nicola Sturgeon: 48%
    Gordon Brown: 37%
    Jim Murphy: 24%
    David Cameron: 19%
    Ed Miliband: 15%

    Right at the bottom of the heap, and Labour still want him to lead them into the next GE or over the next cliff.

    And not just any old Tory leader - easily their poshest leader since Alec Douglas-Home.......

  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    edited October 2014

    Yep, 1 point lead - must set up a rival soothsayer business to SeanT. (Though I did mean 1 point the other way.)

    "Though I did mean 1 point the other way."

    First rule of soothsaying: make sure you're ambiguous.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Is the reason Gordo turned down the Scottish Labour leadership is that he wants to take a run at Ed?

    He couldn't be any worse.

    He saved the World. He saved the Union (sic). Now he can save the Labour party...
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    I'm not a baseball fan, so didn't watch the World Series, but the awkwardness of the award ceremony afterward was hilarious. The Chevrolet zone manager presented a Chevy Colorado truck to the mvp, screwing up his presentation pitch utterly and embarassingly.

    Unfortunately, what wasn't mentioned but subsequently emerged, the player couldn't drive it as it has already been recalled.
  • Some analysis I did before the YouGov poll (updated after it) on Scotland, including why Ipsos-MORI had the SNP higher that everyone was expecting:

    It's worth noting that the last time (that I'm aware of) that Ipsos-MORI did Scottish polls (in the months following the election in 2010), they tended to show the Tories 3 or 4 points lower than YouGov and the SNP higher by a similar amount. We can't be sure if that's still the case now until YouGov (on whose data my number crunching is based) do their own poll, but this picture is at least consistent with consistency of house effects.

    Certainly the two pollsters' methodologies are completely different. YouGov poll online and prompt for the main parties (including for voters living in Scotland, the SNP) or "Another party" and include all voters besides DKs, non-voters and refusals, with weighting by party ID. Ipsos-MORI poll by phone, do not prompt for any party and include only those "certain to vote", with no political weighting. From the tables, the turnout filter doesn't seem significant. Not using political weighting, on the other hand, can lead to exaggerated volatility. This too could explain part of the difference - time will tell.

    http://numbercruncheruk.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/scotland-polling-analysis-and-what.html?spref=tw
  • The Tories are still better than even money for most seats. That seems outrageous value to me and have had another nibble. Maybe it's spending far too much of my life on here that is doing it, but it strikes me as the value bet.
  • YG average Lab lead for October is now definitely only 1%

    So last 7 months are now 4,3,4,3,3,4,1

    So with 6 months to go November average will be crucial

    LAB need it to return to 3 CON need it to be no greater than 1.

    November could be crucial to GE2015 result.

    NOM is nailed on.

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    edited October 2014
    Misery on misery for Labour today and now it's #CrossoverThursday

    YAY!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    Tonights YG LAB 315 CON 287 LD 19 Other 29 (ukpr)

    Ed is crap is PM and from now on will be referred to as Ed is absolutely Shite

    EIASIPM!!!

    Ed wouldn't be PM very long on those numbers (which are, in any case, a steaming pile of poo with just 29 Others, including 18 from NI, given what else we've been discussing this evening).
    T
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    edited October 2014
    If Labour are in real trouble in Scotland, it still masks a major problem for Westminster re the fishwife at Holyrood.

    Sturgeon seems to be a lucky leader this evening, but will she be as astute as Salmond at exploiting this situation in May 2015. But if he SNP get a majority of Scottish Westminster seats then there is going to be a stand off over taxes, spending powers and responsibilities. Another fine mess created by Dewar and Blair.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Plato said:

    I keep saying this - but I still can't quite believe it. EdM is less popular than Mr Cameron in Scotland.

    It's beyond the Laws of Physics for Labour - until now it seems.

    dr_spyn said:

    Harry Cole retweeted
    Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes 18m18 minutes ago
    Times/YouGov Scotland:
    How much do you trust:
    Nicola Sturgeon: 48%
    Gordon Brown: 37%
    Jim Murphy: 24%
    David Cameron: 19%
    Ed Miliband: 15%

    Right at the bottom of the heap, and Labour still want him to lead them into the next GE or over the next cliff.

    Not quite true. The question was on trustworthiness not popularity.
    Ed routinely is rated lower than Cameron on a number of measures in Scotland

This discussion has been closed.