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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov poll for the Times shows that Labour are in real tro
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov poll for the Times shows that Labour are in real trouble in Scotland
Times / YouGov Scotland gen elec poll
SNP: 43% (47 seats)
Labour: 27% (10 seats)
C: 15% (1 seat)
LD: 4% (1 seat)
1,078 adults Oct 27-30
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4% is more comfortable given how much I'm betting against them in Scotland.
@schofieldkevin Possibly he, er, forgot...
Kevin Schofield @schofieldkevin
Did Ed Miliband really not mention Johann Lamont once in his speech to the Scottish Labour gala dinner?
Lib Dems lose Orkney and Shetland according to Electoral Calculus, though I suspect if this were the result in practice, the SNP would penetrate slightly deeper into Labour heartlands but fail to take Orkney and Shetland. (Glasgow East springs to mind...)
Tonights YG SNP 46 LAB 13 CON 0 LD 0
9 LAB Gains in 9 hours
Ed is Crap is PM if trend coninues for a further 36hrs!!!
The Electoral Calculus model is if anything too generous to Labour !
Staggeringly* lacklustre and inadequate Ed Miliband speech in Glasgow tonight. *Entirely predictable. http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/10/ed-milibands-speech-scottish-labours-gala-dinner-full-text …
Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes 18m18 minutes ago
Times/YouGov Scotland:
How much do you trust:
Nicola Sturgeon: 48%
Gordon Brown: 37%
Jim Murphy: 24%
David Cameron: 19%
Ed Miliband: 15%
Right at the bottom of the heap, and Labour still want him to lead them into the next GE or over the next cliff.
YouGov/Sun poll tonight: It's not getting any better for Ed Mili - Tories retake the lead. CON 33%, LAB 32%, UKIP 15%, GRN 7%, LDEM 7%.
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
YouGov/Sun poll tonight: It's not getting any better for Ed Mili - Tories retake the lead. CON 33%, LAB 32%, UKIP 15%, GRN 7%, LDEM 7%
Just stuck in the Daily YouGov
CROSSOVER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Please note Sunil...
Have to say I'm praying for an outcome of the next election that enables Con a majority only in coalition with the SNP. Now that will be popcorn time.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/10/ed-milibands-speech-scottish-labours-gala-dinner-full-text
Must admit does feel good to have a vaguely pro-Tory betting position again.
Out of the ashes perhaps some good news.......
Gordon might be persuaded to pick up the batton....
I am not a fan of Murphy. His views on Israel are very similar to those of Maureen Lipman but with more dubious motives
The flip side is, the SNP will be reliant on converts, first-timers, wild eyed optimists, people who in the end can't be bothered. It's not the referendum all over again, it's a general election.
Enjoy it, just as we're enjoying Tory bewilderment at the battering you're taking from UKIP in even more (and more important) seats!
Telegraph imply that there was a Home Office cover up re links with a former Tory Minister.
Craig Woodhouse @craigawoodhouse
Labour email arrives with quote from Yvette Cooper, "shadow foreign secretary". Have I missed a reshuffle?
I got stick from some of PB's left leaning posters for covering the polls showing the Tories ahead a month ago.
Time for "Oh My God, could Dan Hodges be right" thread
PB hasn't stank this hormonal since, ooh, at least a couple of weeks ago after Dave's tax cutting "game changer".
Ed is crap is PM and from now on will be referred to as Ed is absolutely Shite
EIASIPM!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uACvFAm6JSM
Ed needs a rest.
It's beyond the Laws of Physics for Labour - until now it seems.
EIFSIPM
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/10/how-uk-governments-hefty-brussels-bill-could-lead-us-eu-exit
Nor, obviously, understand it.
After Sean's antics earlier, a word for Jack W, who was not only steadfast and unwavering in his conviction that No would prevail, he has also been resolute from the start that
Ed Miliband Will Never Be PM
Wipeout for Labour looms in Scotland http://t.co/8bEFJwsgAI http://t.co/MwaQAkt9Ns
Fucking Scotland !!!!!!!!!!!
Watch out for that trapdoor Mr Mili........oooops.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/market?marketId=1.101416490
Unless, their Scottish position collapses.
SaveEd
Should be obvious to everyone
even Hugh
'Let's be clear: We don't think that Ukip's right, not on immigration and not on Europe - so the first thing you've got to be really careful of doing is ... saying things that suggest that they're kind of justified in their policy because what you're actually going to do is validate their argument when in fact you don't believe in it.'
Stopping immigration would be 'a disaster for this country', he said.
Labour must not 'end up chasing after the policies of a party like Ukip, who you don't agree with, whose policies would take this country backwards economically, politically, in every conceivable way, and who, ultimately, at the heart of what they do, have a rather nasty core of prejudice that none of us believe in, which you've actually got to take on and fight. So the way to deal with this is to deal with it by what you believe'.
Mr Blair claimed the way David Cameron is dealing with the threat from Ukip 'doesn't do them any electoral favours at all'.
He claimed the Tories would be better off at the ballot box 'if they actually stood up against these people and said 'you don't understand the way the world works today, your policies will take us backwards and we're not going there'.'
Mr Blair added: 'There's a huge desire in a large part of the media in this country to return British politics to a traditional Tory party fighting a traditional Labour party.'
That would lead to a 'traditional result', he warned.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2814333/Curbing-immigration-disaster-Britain-says-Tony-Blair-warning-Labour-not-chase-Ukip-votes.html#ixzz3Hfdk52sL
So last 7 months are now 4,3,4,3,3,4,1
So with 6 months to go November average will be crucial
LAB need it to return to 3 CON need it to be no greater than 1.
November could be crucial to GE2015 result.
First rule of soothsaying: make sure you're ambiguous.
He couldn't be any worse.
He saved the World. He saved the Union (sic). Now he can save the Labour party...
Unfortunately, what wasn't mentioned but subsequently emerged, the player couldn't drive it as it has already been recalled.
It's worth noting that the last time (that I'm aware of) that Ipsos-MORI did Scottish polls (in the months following the election in 2010), they tended to show the Tories 3 or 4 points lower than YouGov and the SNP higher by a similar amount. We can't be sure if that's still the case now until YouGov (on whose data my number crunching is based) do their own poll, but this picture is at least consistent with consistency of house effects.
Certainly the two pollsters' methodologies are completely different. YouGov poll online and prompt for the main parties (including for voters living in Scotland, the SNP) or "Another party" and include all voters besides DKs, non-voters and refusals, with weighting by party ID. Ipsos-MORI poll by phone, do not prompt for any party and include only those "certain to vote", with no political weighting. From the tables, the turnout filter doesn't seem significant. Not using political weighting, on the other hand, can lead to exaggerated volatility. This too could explain part of the difference - time will tell.
http://numbercruncheruk.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/scotland-polling-analysis-and-what.html?spref=tw
YAY!
Sturgeon seems to be a lucky leader this evening, but will she be as astute as Salmond at exploiting this situation in May 2015. But if he SNP get a majority of Scottish Westminster seats then there is going to be a stand off over taxes, spending powers and responsibilities. Another fine mess created by Dewar and Blair.