And so it has happened.. political nerdyness has overtaken love of football
Lifelong Arsenal supporter, I had to work on the Liverpool match for the first 70 mins.. switched over to the Arsenal only to see us go 1-0 down... been reading PB and only just saw we won 2-1
"There's more bad news for Cons: once again majority of voters reject idea that vote for Ukip is vote for Miliband"
Are they rejecting that idea though? Or are they rejecting the idea that just because that is true does not mean they will not vote the way they want to, because Ed M as PM does not scare them even if they think he is crap?
The two polls are very similar and both support each other.
The main change in support between the two polls is possibly evidence of Labour deciding not to campaign 100%. I don't think that decision had been taken at the time of the first poll.
This poll includes a "have you been contacted by " question:
Remember, this poll was before I go campaigning in Rochester & Strood
Or visit the nice Labour candidate. By the way did you visit Clacton before the by-election?
No.
Beware when you go there:
James Forsyth @JGForsyth 4m4 minutes ago Most worrying thing for the Tories in that Rochester poll, that 62% view the by-election as a chance to kick the govt http://bit.ly/1tgD7rw
By-elections are usually about kicking the government, so I'm not sure why the Tories have staked so much on the result.
Because they have no choice - even with a weak Labour the electoral factors make winning in 2015 extremely difficult for them if UKIP are a major force, and so they need to prove they can be beaten. They'd seemed to have done so before, but the defections and, if it happens, a second UKIP win, makes more defectors likely, a narrative of defeat to be even more ingrained.
Yes, they could afford to duck Clacton but they have to stand and fight in Rochester.
If they can even hold the line at a small defeat, it would be something of a result in that it would limit some of the Kippers' loftier ambitions. It's interesting to speculate what kind of a GE result they might expect if tonite's poll turned out to be very close to the actual vote. I think they would improve on the six or so seats the betting markets are suggesting.
UKIP is getting close to the finish line. For the so called anti-UKIP vote to give Tories a victory more than half of Labour votes have to switch to voting Tory (the LD and Greens are too compressed to make a difference).
With this poll it's 30 days till Cameron faces a leadership challenge.
I think the idea that Cameron would face a leadership challenge this side of a GE is just not realistic. For all that I dislike him as leader I think it is far too late for any leadership changes now - I would also say the same about Miliband and Clegg.
It's not about who's in charge, it's about policies now. A new leader could come in, promise to pull out of the EU and dramatically reduce immigration (or even place a moratorium on it until a full points sytem is established) if his party wins the GE, among other thing, but that ain't going to happen. Cameron for Gove or May or whoever - to the general public - is just one faceless politician replaced by another. Things are beyond that stage.
Kippers don't believe Cameron's promises now, they're no likelier to go along with what a new leader offers.
Besides, this is all about Farage smashing the Tories who 'dissed' him. Europe is a side show.
And so it has happened.. political nerdyness has overtaken love of football
Lifelong Arsenal supporter, I had to work on the Liverpool match for the first 70 mins.. switched over to the Arsenal only to see us go 1-0 down... been reading PB and only just saw we won 2-1
Happy days!
Have you gone above West Ham? We were 4th until today
Remember, this poll was before I go campaigning in Rochester & Strood
Or visit the nice Labour candidate. By the way did you visit Clacton before the by-election?
No.
Beware when you go there:
James Forsyth @JGForsyth 4m4 minutes ago Most worrying thing for the Tories in that Rochester poll, that 62% view the by-election as a chance to kick the govt http://bit.ly/1tgD7rw
By-elections are usually about kicking the government, so I'm not sure why the Tories have staked so much on the result.
Because they have no choice - even with a weak Labour the electoral factors make winning in 2015 extremely difficult for them if UKIP are a major force, and so they need to prove they can be beaten. They'd seemed to have done so before, but the defections and, if it happens, a second UKIP win, makes more defectors likely, a narrative of defeat to be even more ingrained.
Yes, they could afford to duck Clacton but they have to stand and fight in Rochester.
If they can even hold the line at a small defeat, it would be something of a result in that it would limit some of the Kippers' loftier ambitions. It's interesting to speculate what kind of a GE result they might expect if tonite's poll turned out to be very close to the actual vote. I think they would improve on the six or so seats the betting markets are suggesting.
More like ten?
I for one hope the Conservatives can somehow wrangle up a win in Rochester, if only to save me £100 come May 2015. As a supporter of other parties breaking into Westminster, I've always wanted them to do well, but not at the expense of my pocket!
Looking at the tables again UKIP gets more than a quarter of 2010LAB and a little under a third of 2010 LD, while the Tories get almost none 2010LAB votes and a fifth of 2010LD.
"There's more bad news for Cons: once again majority of voters reject idea that vote for Ukip is vote for Miliband"
Are they rejecting that idea though? Or are they rejecting the idea that just because that is true does not mean they will not vote the way they want to, because Ed M as PM does not scare them even if they think he is crap?
Its not that bad for the Conservatives. The UKIP by-election supporters split 30/65.
A good poll for UKIP, but not much difference to Ashcroft's 9% UKIP lead in the seat and still well below the 35% Carswell won by in Clacton. Much will depend now on who the Tories pick to fight the seat tomorrow and how well they campaign
A good poll for UKIP, but not much difference to Ashcroft's 9% UKIP lead in the seat and still well below the 35% Carswell won by in Clacton. Much will depend now on who the Tories pick to fight the seat tomorrow and how well they campaign
However recent by-elections seem to indicate that in the polling booth there is a tendency to vote UKIP - whether that holds this time will be revealed in the fullness of time.
However polling companies may have to revise their models about non-voters. Whilst total numbers in elections kept coming down this seemed a good strategy, it may be that there will be more engaging by the public - which will make the current polls obsolete.
UKIP is getting close to the finish line. For the so called anti-UKIP vote to give Tories a victory more than half of Labour votes have to switch to voting Tory (the LD and Greens are too compressed to make a difference).
With this poll it's 30 days till Cameron faces a leadership challenge.
I think the idea that Cameron would face a leadership challenge this side of a GE is just not realistic. For all that I dislike him as leader I think it is far too late for any leadership changes now - I would also say the same about Miliband and Clegg.
It's not about who's in charge, it's about policies now. A new leader could come in, promise to pull out of the EU and dramatically reduce immigration (or even place a moratorium on it until a full points sytem is established) if his party wins the GE, among other thing, but that ain't going to happen. Cameron for Gove or May or whoever - to the general public - is just one faceless politician replaced by another. Things are beyond that stage.
Kippers don't believe Cameron's promises now, they're no likelier to go along with what a new leader offers.
Besides, this is all about Farage smashing the Tories who 'dissed' him. Europe is a side show.
Kippers believe and disbelieve what they want and in which order they want.
UKIP is getting close to the finish line. For the so called anti-UKIP vote to give Tories a victory more than half of Labour votes have to switch to voting Tory (the LD and Greens are too compressed to make a difference).
With this poll it's 30 days till Cameron faces a leadership challenge.
I think the idea that Cameron would face a leadership challenge this side of a GE is just not realistic. For all that I dislike him as leader I think it is far too late for any leadership changes now - I would also say the same about Miliband and Clegg.
Don't blame me, the Spectator quoted a cabinet minister for that no confidence vote if UKIP wins Rochester.
If Cameron goes, be prepared for a General Election. The probable new Tory winner would not work with the LibDems and vice versa.
I really can't see it happening though. Both the Coalition parties are aware of the saying "A week is a long time in politics" and we still have 7 months to go. Both of them know that things can change and will probably be wearing knee pads for all the morning, afternoon and bedtime prayers they will all be doing.
"There's more bad news for Cons: once again majority of voters reject idea that vote for Ukip is vote for Miliband"
Are they rejecting that idea though? Or are they rejecting the idea that just because that is true does not mean they will not vote the way they want to, because Ed M as PM does not scare them even if they think he is crap?
But the most recent poll showed that the majority for staying in the EU had gone up. Farage is just peddling hatred of immigrants. Indeed he will peddle anything of the moment that is populist.
And so it has happened.. political nerdyness has overtaken love of football
Lifelong Arsenal supporter, I had to work on the Liverpool match for the first 70 mins.. switched over to the Arsenal only to see us go 1-0 down... been reading PB and only just saw we won 2-1
Happy days!
Have you gone above West Ham? We were 4th until today
It was a Champions League match at Anderlecht so no change in the Prem table
Rochester isn't even in the top third of UKIP-friendly constituencies, according to Matthew Goodwin. It's number 271 on the list.
I think they got it wrong. They left out some factors in their calculations. Even Goodwin on TV after Heywood suggested he needed to have a rethink.
They left out the fact that UKIP are gaining supporters and adherents who are no longer shy or afraid, even, of admitting their preference for UKIP above other parties.
I still feel that UKIP as a party and organisation haven't reached take-off speed yet. Maybe if they gain Rochester even by as little as 500 votes, they will gain that lift off, and after that there is everything to play for: even power.
"There's more bad news for Cons: once again majority of voters reject idea that vote for Ukip is vote for Miliband"
Are they rejecting that idea though? Or are they rejecting the idea that just because that is true does not mean they will not vote the way they want to, because Ed M as PM does not scare them even if they think he is crap?
But the most recent poll showed that the majority for staying in the EU had gone up. Farage is just peddling hatred of immigrants. Indeed he will peddle anything of the moment that is populist.
He sure will. Seems to be working too, for the moment, for longer than it seemed it initially would.
"There's more bad news for Cons: once again majority of voters reject idea that vote for Ukip is vote for Miliband"
Are they rejecting that idea though? Or are they rejecting the idea that just because that is true does not mean they will not vote the way they want to, because Ed M as PM does not scare them even if they think he is crap?
But the most recent poll showed that the majority for staying in the EU had gone up. Farage is just peddling hatred of immigrants. Indeed he will peddle anything of the moment that is populist.
Seems to spook Dave, as he follows with anti EU anti immigrant statements everytime UKIP's popularity rises.
"There's more bad news for Cons: once again majority of voters reject idea that vote for Ukip is vote for Miliband"
Are they rejecting that idea though? Or are they rejecting the idea that just because that is true does not mean they will not vote the way they want to, because Ed M as PM does not scare them even if they think he is crap?
But the most recent poll showed that the majority for staying in the EU had gone up. Farage is just peddling hatred of immigrants. Indeed he will peddle anything of the moment that is populist.
UKIP are opposed to open door immigration, not immigrants.
"There's more bad news for Cons: once again majority of voters reject idea that vote for Ukip is vote for Miliband"
Are they rejecting that idea though? Or are they rejecting the idea that just because that is true does not mean they will not vote the way they want to, because Ed M as PM does not scare them even if they think he is crap?
But the most recent poll showed that the majority for staying in the EU had gone up. Farage is just peddling hatred of immigrants. Indeed he will peddle anything of the moment that is populist.
He sure will. Seems to be working too, for the moment, for longer than it seemed it initially would.
Plenty of WWC Labour votes in the North to Hoover up. Snap, snap, snap. Look at Heywood.
remember the days when labour seemed to have a firewall of 38% - 40%. then there was the 35% strategy , whats next the 30% strategy?
The Ed is crap strategy keeps them above the Tories and gets them a workable majority. That is the one that counts.
actually if you look at the overall trend in labours polling since 2012 it is steadily and uniform ally declining and at this rate looks like it will drop below 2010 GE result level by May 2015, the tory share whilst low is holding steady and usually governments do recover polling as GE gets closer, hung parliament tory largest party most votes looking probable.
"There's more bad news for Cons: once again majority of voters reject idea that vote for Ukip is vote for Miliband"
Are they rejecting that idea though? Or are they rejecting the idea that just because that is true does not mean they will not vote the way they want to, because Ed M as PM does not scare them even if they think he is crap?
But the most recent poll showed that the majority for staying in the EU had gone up. Farage is just peddling hatred of immigrants. Indeed he will peddle anything of the moment that is populist.
He sure will. Seems to be working too, for the moment, for longer than it seemed it initially would.
Plenty of WWC Labour votes in the North to Hoover up. Snap, snap, snap.
How many right wing GE2015 northern gains you predicting
"There's more bad news for Cons: once again majority of voters reject idea that vote for Ukip is vote for Miliband"
Are they rejecting that idea though? Or are they rejecting the idea that just because that is true does not mean they will not vote the way they want to, because Ed M as PM does not scare them even if they think he is crap?
But the most recent poll showed that the majority for staying in the EU had gone up. Farage is just peddling hatred of immigrants. Indeed he will peddle anything of the moment that is populist.
"There's more bad news for Cons: once again majority of voters reject idea that vote for Ukip is vote for Miliband"
Are they rejecting that idea though? Or are they rejecting the idea that just because that is true does not mean they will not vote the way they want to, because Ed M as PM does not scare them even if they think he is crap?
But the most recent poll showed that the majority for staying in the EU had gone up. Farage is just peddling hatred of immigrants. Indeed he will peddle anything of the moment that is populist.
That was a bollocks poll, an outlier. Why exactly would support for the EU have suddenly risen?
If immigration is an issue on the doorstep, well then it plays into UKIP's hands as they stand for being out of the EU, and thus the country having control of its borders as a sovereign nation once more. They don't have to 'pedal' anything.
What are the Cons offering? Or Labour? Or the Lib Dems?
"There's more bad news for Cons: once again majority of voters reject idea that vote for Ukip is vote for Miliband"
Are they rejecting that idea though? Or are they rejecting the idea that just because that is true does not mean they will not vote the way they want to, because Ed M as PM does not scare them even if they think he is crap?
But the most recent poll showed that the majority for staying in the EU had gone up. Farage is just peddling hatred of immigrants. Indeed he will peddle anything of the moment that is populist.
He sure will. Seems to be working too, for the moment, for longer than it seemed it initially would.
Ever occurred to you that populist policies are just that for a reason? That people who live in the daily reality of life are entitled to an opinion?
Nobody I know hates immigrants, that is just bitter smearing, but they do recognize that unchecked mass immigration cannot go on.
And so it has happened.. political nerdyness has overtaken love of football
Lifelong Arsenal supporter, I had to work on the Liverpool match for the first 70 mins.. switched over to the Arsenal only to see us go 1-0 down... been reading PB and only just saw we won 2-1
Happy days!
Have you gone above West Ham? We were 4th until today
It was a Champions League match at Anderlecht so no change in the Prem table
Ha! Don't know why I thought it was a domestic game, sorry!
"There's more bad news for Cons: once again majority of voters reject idea that vote for Ukip is vote for Miliband"
Are they rejecting that idea though? Or are they rejecting the idea that just because that is true does not mean they will not vote the way they want to, because Ed M as PM does not scare them even if they think he is crap?
But the most recent poll showed that the majority for staying in the EU had gone up. Farage is just peddling hatred of immigrants. Indeed he will peddle anything of the moment that is populist.
UKIP are opposed to open door immigration, not immigrants.
Don't waste your breath Dave. The people that play the racist card everywhere they can are just thickos that can't deal with actual arguments. Every time someone does it I assume their IQ is about five points lower than I did previously.
"There's more bad news for Cons: once again majority of voters reject idea that vote for Ukip is vote for Miliband"
Are they rejecting that idea though? Or are they rejecting the idea that just because that is true does not mean they will not vote the way they want to, because Ed M as PM does not scare them even if they think he is crap?
But the most recent poll showed that the majority for staying in the EU had gone up. Farage is just peddling hatred of immigrants. Indeed he will peddle anything of the moment that is populist.
That was a bollocks poll, an outlier. Why exactly would support for the EU have suddenly risen?
That poll was conducted using the same panel, at the same time as the Ipsos-Mori had UKIP at their highest level.
I can't recall many Kippers calling the VI part of the poll an outlier.
"There's more bad news for Cons: once again majority of voters reject idea that vote for Ukip is vote for Miliband"
Are they rejecting that idea though? Or are they rejecting the idea that just because that is true does not mean they will not vote the way they want to, because Ed M as PM does not scare them even if they think he is crap?
But the most recent poll showed that the majority for staying in the EU had gone up. Farage is just peddling hatred of immigrants. Indeed he will peddle anything of the moment that is populist.
He sure will. Seems to be working too, for the moment, for longer than it seemed it initially would.
Ever occurred to you that populist policies are just that for a reason? That people who live in the daily reality of life are entitled to an opinion?
Nobody I know hates immigrants, that is just bitter smearing, but they do recognize that unchecked mass immigration cannot go on.
I think you may have misinterpreted my comments, because I was only intending to respond to the bit about him peddling anything that is populist, not the hating immigrants bit. I don't know how many times I have to say I want UKIP to do well before people stop assuming the worst in any unclear statement, particular one I did not make but was responding to.
What I was trying to say was that Farage does peddle anything of the moment that is populist, and that it works (that is why i said it seems to be working, see, because I am aware that populist things are, well, popular). My surprise that it has held up for UKIP this long has nothing to do with the fact the policies are 'populist', but because the list of things people are supportive of will not all be ideologically consistent, and UKIP have done very well latching on to multiple streams of attach and support which might not always fit together ideologically.
Honestly, sometimes people see conspiracies everywhere. I should put a footer on all posts that I support an EU referendum immediately, like Farage and hope UKIP do well, despite me not supporting UKIP or leaving the EU (reluctantly), because I think they are a good thing for politics. I pretty much do anyway if I comment on the Telegraph, just to avoid the flood of angry Kipper comments at any hint of criticism.
"There's more bad news for Cons: once again majority of voters reject idea that vote for Ukip is vote for Miliband"
Are they rejecting that idea though? Or are they rejecting the idea that just because that is true does not mean they will not vote the way they want to, because Ed M as PM does not scare them even if they think he is crap?
But the most recent poll showed that the majority for staying in the EU had gone up. Farage is just peddling hatred of immigrants. Indeed he will peddle anything of the moment that is populist.
UKIP are opposed to open door immigration, not immigrants.
Don't waste your breath Dave. The people that play the racist card everywhere they can are just thickos that can't deal with actual arguments. Every time someone does it I assume their IQ is about five points lower than I did previously.
remember the days when labour seemed to have a firewall of 38% - 40%. then there was the 35% strategy , whats next the 30% strategy?
The Ed is crap strategy keeps them above the Tories and gets them a workable majority. That is the one that counts.
actually if you look at the overall trend in labours polling since 2012 it is steadily and uniform ally declining and at this rate looks like it will drop below 2010 GE result level by May 2015, the tory share whilst low is holding steady and usually governments do recover polling as GE gets closer, hung parliament tory largest party most votes looking probable.
Yes, that's a perfectly plausible projection, Kjohn, but it starts to unravel if the Tories lose Rochester and UKIP press on to take 20% or so of the popular vote and, say, a dozen seats next May.
That's why so many posters here and political commentators have emphasised the importance of this by-election. There's no way it can be played down.
"There's more bad news for Cons: once again majority of voters reject idea that vote for Ukip is vote for Miliband"
Are they rejecting that idea though? Or are they rejecting the idea that just because that is true does not mean they will not vote the way they want to, because Ed M as PM does not scare them even if they think he is crap?
But the most recent poll showed that the majority for staying in the EU had gone up. Farage is just peddling hatred of immigrants. Indeed he will peddle anything of the moment that is populist.
He sure will. Seems to be working too, for the moment, for longer than it seemed it initially would.
Ever occurred to you that populist policies are just that for a reason? That people who live in the daily reality of life are entitled to an opinion? .
Nobody said otherwise, and I didn't say otherwise, so calm down and don't see potential oppressors everywhere, see my post before this one for how either through my own lack of clarity or your bias you have completely and totally missed my point.
One thing people haven't got over where UKIP are concerned (be they supporters of UKIP or not) is ridiculous bloody overreactions. It's almost enough for me to wish they weren't doing so well, as as much as they force all the parties to work harder for votes and provide a voice to many others which was not being met, people seem to lose their minds where UKIP involved, be they in favour of them or not.
"There's more bad news for Cons: once again majority of voters reject idea that vote for Ukip is vote for Miliband"
Are they rejecting that idea though? Or are they rejecting the idea that just because that is true does not mean they will not vote the way they want to, because Ed M as PM does not scare them even if they think he is crap?
But the most recent poll showed that the majority for staying in the EU had gone up. Farage is just peddling hatred of immigrants. Indeed he will peddle anything of the moment that is populist.
UKIP are opposed to open door immigration, not immigrants.
Don't waste your breath Dave. The people that play the racist card everywhere they can are just thickos that can't deal with actual arguments. Every time someone does it I assume their IQ is about five points lower than I did previously.
I think most UKIP supporters are at least to some degree racist and my IQ was 133 last week so maybe its dropped to 128 now i typed that
"There's more bad news for Cons: once again majority of voters reject idea that vote for Ukip is vote for Miliband"
Are they rejecting that idea though? Or are they rejecting the idea that just because that is true does not mean they will not vote the way they want to, because Ed M as PM does not scare them even if they think he is crap?
But the most recent poll showed that the majority for staying in the EU had gone up. Farage is just peddling hatred of immigrants. Indeed he will peddle anything of the moment that is populist.
He sure will. Seems to be working too, for the moment, for longer than it seemed it initially would.
Plenty of WWC Labour votes in the North to Hoover up. Snap, snap, snap.
How many right wing GE2015 northern gains you predicting
Be interesting to work that out, now Heywood and Middleton has become an ultra marginal.
Surely the value is with the Tories here? Looks like the Kippers will walk it but the Tory price might be tradeable later if their vast resources lead to a late rally. Forget Labour - total soft pedal here despite an attractive candidate.
"There's more bad news for Cons: once again majority of voters reject idea that vote for Ukip is vote for Miliband"
Are they rejecting that idea though? Or are they rejecting the idea that just because that is true does not mean they will not vote the way they want to, because Ed M as PM does not scare them even if they think he is crap?
But the most recent poll showed that the majority for staying in the EU had gone up. Farage is just peddling hatred of immigrants. Indeed he will peddle anything of the moment that is populist.
UKIP are opposed to open door immigration, not immigrants.
Don't waste your breath Dave. The people that play the racist card everywhere they can are just thickos that can't deal with actual arguments. Every time someone does it I assume their IQ is about five points lower than I did previously.
Considering one of your fellow Kippers first instinct was to tell me, that the EDL was the voice of reason, you can understand why people think the way they do on UKIP.
"There's more bad news for Cons: once again majority of voters reject idea that vote for Ukip is vote for Miliband"
Are they rejecting that idea though? Or are they rejecting the idea that just because that is true does not mean they will not vote the way they want to, because Ed M as PM does not scare them even if they think he is crap?
But the most recent poll showed that the majority for staying in the EU had gone up. Farage is just peddling hatred of immigrants. Indeed he will peddle anything of the moment that is populist.
He sure will. Seems to be working too, for the moment, for longer than it seemed it initially would.
Plenty of WWC Labour votes in the North to Hoover up. Snap, snap, snap.
How many right wing GE2015 northern gains you predicting
Be interesting to work that out, now Heywood and Middleton has become an ultra marginal.
UKIP 8/1 there... That could be a decent bet if Labour don't pull their socks up soon
"There's more bad news for Cons: once again majority of voters reject idea that vote for Ukip is vote for Miliband"
Are they rejecting that idea though? Or are they rejecting the idea that just because that is true does not mean they will not vote the way they want to, because Ed M as PM does not scare them even if they think he is crap?
But the most recent poll showed that the majority for staying in the EU had gone up. Farage is just peddling hatred of immigrants. Indeed he will peddle anything of the moment that is populist.
UKIP are opposed to open door immigration, not immigrants.
Don't waste your breath Dave. The people that play the racist card everywhere they can are just thickos that can't deal with actual arguments. Every time someone does it I assume their IQ is about five points lower than I did previously.
Surely UKIP is home of the thickos though?
Absolutely, none of us have an IQ above room temperature and only 3 in 10 manage to spell their names correctly best out of three using crayon.
Rochester isn't even in the top third of UKIP-friendly constituencies, according to Matthew Goodwin. It's number 271 on the list.
I think they got it wrong. They left out some factors in their calculations. Even Goodwin on TV after Heywood suggested he needed to have a rethink.
They left out the fact that UKIP are gaining supporters and adherents who are no longer shy or afraid, even, of admitting their preference for UKIP above other parties.
I still feel that UKIP as a party and organisation haven't reached take-off speed yet. Maybe if they gain Rochester even by as little as 500 votes, they will gain that lift off, and after that there is everything to play for: even power.
Certainly that's feasible but they also don't seem to have taken other factors into account such as Grammar School areas (Kent, Lincolnshire, Parts of Essex) etc, proximity to Europe and proximity to European access to the UK (e.g. Ferry Ports Dover Folkestone, Ramsgate as was, Harwich, Newhaven), dominant types of low paid work (e.g. agriculture and horticulture) and subliminal historical reasons for opposing the EU like WWII airbases, defences against European invasion etc/ evidence of European invasion. All of which are present in large amounts in the eastern coastal regions which are rapidly becoming UKIP's heartland. These are the places where Europe and the EU are most noticeable (and therefore historically whether popular electorally or not) where likely UKIP's traditional messages held most significance. Add those to the national concerns about the likes of immigration, patchy and unreliable public services and what is for many economic stagnation and there you have it.
I do agree that UKIP have not yet had that real lift off moment and certainly a win in Rochester could be the result they need to do that although my feeling is their first victory in a Labour seat might well turn out to be the critical victory and perhaps that will have to wait until after 2015. To think though another 600 votes and Heywood could have been that seat.
We now seem to be in a pattern where polling in the low thirties is the norm for the Big Two. Labour's scores are awful, made tolerable only by the fact that the Tories are even worse.
"There's more bad news for Cons: once again majority of voters reject idea that vote for Ukip is vote for Miliband"
Are they rejecting that idea though? Or are they rejecting the idea that just because that is true does not mean they will not vote the way they want to, because Ed M as PM does not scare them even if they think he is crap?
But the most recent poll showed that the majority for staying in the EU had gone up. Farage is just peddling hatred of immigrants. Indeed he will peddle anything of the moment that is populist.
He sure will. Seems to be working too, for the moment, for longer than it seemed it initially would.
Plenty of WWC Labour votes in the North to Hoover up. Snap, snap, snap.
How many right wing GE2015 northern gains you predicting
Be interesting to work that out, now Heywood and Middleton has become an ultra marginal.
The Yorkshire Post had a quote from Mr Farage saying that if UKIP did well in the South Yorkshire Police Crime Commissioner by-election, UKIP would shift their general election plans.
"There's more bad news for Cons: once again majority of voters reject idea that vote for Ukip is vote for Miliband"
Are they rejecting that idea though? Or are they rejecting the idea that just because that is true does not mean they will not vote the way they want to, because Ed M as PM does not scare them even if they think he is crap?
But the most recent poll showed that the majority for staying in the EU had gone up. Farage is just peddling hatred of immigrants. Indeed he will peddle anything of the moment that is populist.
UKIP are opposed to open door immigration, not immigrants.
Don't waste your breath Dave. The people that play the racist card everywhere they can are just thickos that can't deal with actual arguments. Every time someone does it I assume their IQ is about five points lower than I did previously.
Surely UKIP is home of the thickos though?
Absolutely, none of us have an IQ above room temperature
It is just one poll, a snapshot of the recent past, not a prediction. It is, for UKIP, encouraging but there is a month to go yet and who knows what might happen in that time, especially as the Conservatives haven't got going yet.
"There's more bad news for Cons: once again majority of voters reject idea that vote for Ukip is vote for Miliband"
Are they rejecting that idea though? Or are they rejecting the idea that just because that is true does not mean they will not vote the way they want to, because Ed M as PM does not scare them even if they think he is crap?
But the most recent poll showed that the majority for staying in the EU had gone up. Farage is just peddling hatred of immigrants. Indeed he will peddle anything of the moment that is populist.
He sure will. Seems to be working too, for the moment, for longer than it seemed it initially would.
Plenty of WWC Labour votes in the North to Hoover up. Snap, snap, snap.
How many right wing GE2015 northern gains you predicting
Be interesting to work that out, now Heywood and Middleton has become an ultra marginal.
"There's more bad news for Cons: once again majority of voters reject idea that vote for Ukip is vote for Miliband"
Are they rejecting that idea though? Or are they rejecting the idea that just because that is true does not mean they will not vote the way they want to, because Ed M as PM does not scare them even if they think he is crap?
But the most recent poll showed that the majority for staying in the EU had gone up. Farage is just peddling hatred of immigrants. Indeed he will peddle anything of the moment that is populist.
UKIP are opposed to open door immigration, not immigrants.
Don't waste your breath Dave. The people that play the racist card everywhere they can are just thickos that can't deal with actual arguments. Every time someone does it I assume their IQ is about five points lower than I did previously.
Considering one of your fellow Kippers first instinct was to tell me, that the EDL was the voice of reason, you can understand why people think the way they do on UKIP.
"There's more bad news for Cons: once again majority of voters reject idea that vote for Ukip is vote for Miliband"
Are they rejecting that idea though? Or are they rejecting the idea that just because that is true does not mean they will not vote the way they want to, because Ed M as PM does not scare them even if they think he is crap?
But the most recent poll showed that the majority for staying in the EU had gone up. Farage is just peddling hatred of immigrants. Indeed he will peddle anything of the moment that is populist.
UKIP are opposed to open door immigration, not immigrants.
Don't waste your breath Dave. The people that play the racist card everywhere they can are just thickos that can't deal with actual arguments. Every time someone does it I assume their IQ is about five points lower than I did previously.
Considering one of your fellow Kippers first instinct was to tell me, that the EDL was the voice of reason, you can understand why people think the way they do on UKIP.
I've met racist Labour voters and Tory voters before. It's pretty absurd to use that to extrapolate to a whole party.
"There's more bad news for Cons: once again majority of voters reject idea that vote for Ukip is vote for Miliband"
Are they rejecting that idea though? Or are they rejecting the idea that just because that is true does not mean they will not vote the way they want to, because Ed M as PM does not scare them even if they think he is crap?
But the most recent poll showed that the majority for staying in the EU had gone up. Farage is just peddling hatred of immigrants. Indeed he will peddle anything of the moment that is populist.
He sure will. Seems to be working too, for the moment, for longer than it seemed it initially would.
Plenty of WWC Labour votes in the North to Hoover up. Snap, snap, snap.
How many right wing GE2015 northern gains you predicting
Be interesting to work that out, now Heywood and Middleton has become an ultra marginal.
I await your prediction
I'd hate for you to miss it, in amongst the hundreds of Baxtered polls you post. How do you do it by the way? Is there a website anywhere that reveals the secret machinations and magic formula?
Surely the value is with the Tories here? Looks like the Kippers will walk it but the Tory price might be tradeable later if their vast resources lead to a late rally. Forget Labour - total soft pedal here despite an attractive candidate.
Tomorrows primary returns are the thing to watch for.. could be all over or game on depending on how many bothered returning them
I'm truly amazed at what Labour are doing or not doing in Rochester.
I know their supposed strategy is that it's better to let the Blues vs Purples fight it out, but given the seat was one of theirs until recently - it looks very defeatest.
What on Earth must their activists be thinking? I'd be most demoralised at this stage of the election cycle if I was Red Teamer.
"There's more bad news for Cons: once again majority of voters reject idea that vote for Ukip is vote for Miliband"
Are they rejecting that idea though? Or are they rejecting the idea that just because that is true does not mean they will not vote the way they want to, because Ed M as PM does not scare them even if they think he is crap?
But the most recent poll showed that the majority for staying in the EU had gone up. Farage is just peddling hatred of immigrants. Indeed he will peddle anything of the moment that is populist.
UKIP are opposed to open door immigration, not immigrants.
Don't waste your breath Dave. The people that play the racist card everywhere they can are just thickos that can't deal with actual arguments. Every time someone does it I assume their IQ is about five points lower than I did previously.
I think most UKIP supporters are at least to some degree racist and my IQ was 133 last week so maybe its dropped to 128 now i typed that
I drop it 20 for the sort of muppets boasting about their IQ on an internet forum.
"There's more bad news for Cons: once again majority of voters reject idea that vote for Ukip is vote for Miliband"
Are they rejecting that idea though? Or are they rejecting the idea that just because that is true does not mean they will not vote the way they want to, because Ed M as PM does not scare them even if they think he is crap?
But the most recent poll showed that the majority for staying in the EU had gone up. Farage is just peddling hatred of immigrants. Indeed he will peddle anything of the moment that is populist.
UKIP are opposed to open door immigration, not immigrants.
Don't waste your breath Dave. The people that play the racist card everywhere they can are just thickos that can't deal with actual arguments. Every time someone does it I assume their IQ is about five points lower than I did previously.
Surely UKIP is home of the thickos though?
Absolutely, none of us have an IQ above room temperature
Fahrenheit or Celsius?
Never heard of either bloke but they sound foreign so I will say no.
Comments
Lifelong Arsenal supporter, I had to work on the Liverpool match for the first 70 mins.. switched over to the Arsenal only to see us go 1-0 down... been reading PB and only just saw we won 2-1
Happy days!
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by two points: CON 31%, LAB 33%, LD 7%, UKIP 17%, GRN 6%
Conservatives 86%
UKIP 71%
Labour 30%
LD 7%
p.12
http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/Rochester_&_Strood_published_tables_Oct_2014.pdf
If they can even hold the line at a small defeat, it would be something of a result in that it would limit some of the Kippers' loftier ambitions. It's interesting to speculate what kind of a GE result they might expect if tonite's poll turned out to be very close to the actual vote. I think they would improve on the six or so seats the betting markets are suggesting.
More like ten?
Besides, this is all about Farage smashing the Tories who 'dissed' him. Europe is a side show.
@JeremyBrowneMP: I have decided not to stand as a candidate at the 2015 General Election. pic.twitter.com/rFjYJfNNis”
So much for the anti-UKIP tactical vote theory.
Goodnight.
p.27
EICIPM 6.5 MONTHS to go.
Lab 33.6 (-0.5)
Con 31.2 (-0.3)
UKIP 17.1 (+0.9)
LD 7.9 (-0.2)
Lab lead 2.4 (-0.1)
However polling companies may have to revise their models about non-voters. Whilst total numbers in elections kept coming down this seemed a good strategy, it may be that there will be more engaging by the public - which will make the current polls obsolete.
I really can't see it happening though. Both the Coalition parties are aware of the saying "A week is a long time in politics" and we still have 7 months to go. Both of them know that things can change and will probably be wearing knee pads for all the morning, afternoon and bedtime prayers they will all be doing.
Edited due to forgetting Latin!
Facts are that disproportionately they are a larger part of your imports to remote conflicts such as Syria/Iraq compared to their overall numbers.
I still feel that UKIP as a party and organisation haven't reached take-off speed yet. Maybe if they gain Rochester even by as little as 500 votes, they will gain that lift off, and after that there is everything to play for: even power.
http://www.ukip.org/steven_woolfe_ukip_s_ethical_migration_policy
As far as I can see it, Reckless is focussing his campaign around saving the Hoo Peninsula from being bull-dozed by the cnuts on Medway Council, a natural site of Special Scientific Interest.
http://markreckless.com/2014/09/24/the-hoo-peninsula-is-under-threat-and-i-need-your-help/
If immigration is an issue on the doorstep, well then it plays into UKIP's hands as they stand for being out of the EU, and thus the country having control of its borders as a sovereign nation once more. They don't have to 'pedal' anything.
What are the Cons offering? Or Labour? Or the Lib Dems?
Gobshite, that's what they're offering.
Nobody I know hates immigrants, that is just bitter smearing, but they do recognize that unchecked mass immigration cannot go on.
@JohnRentoul: What the Great British public think of free movement of workers. ComRes for @IndyOnSunday http://t.co/T5qgCpkYbL http://t.co/axNjZscuto
I can't recall many Kippers calling the VI part of the poll an outlier.
What I was trying to say was that Farage does peddle anything of the moment that is populist, and that it works (that is why i said it seems to be working, see, because I am aware that populist things are, well, popular). My surprise that it has held up for UKIP this long has nothing to do with the fact the policies are 'populist', but because the list of things people are supportive of will not all be ideologically consistent, and UKIP have done very well latching on to multiple streams of attach and support which might not always fit together ideologically.
Honestly, sometimes people see conspiracies everywhere. I should put a footer on all posts that I support an EU referendum immediately, like Farage and hope UKIP do well, despite me not supporting UKIP or leaving the EU (reluctantly), because I think they are a good thing for politics. I pretty much do anyway if I comment on the Telegraph, just to avoid the flood of angry Kipper comments at any hint of criticism.
That's why so many posters here and political commentators have emphasised the importance of this by-election. There's no way it can be played down.
One thing people haven't got over where UKIP are concerned (be they supporters of UKIP or not) is ridiculous bloody overreactions. It's almost enough for me to wish they weren't doing so well, as as much as they force all the parties to work harder for votes and provide a voice to many others which was not being met, people seem to lose their minds where UKIP involved, be they in favour of them or not.
Sleep well everybody.
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/522402890598858752
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/heywood-and-middleton/winning-party
I do agree that UKIP have not yet had that real lift off moment and certainly a win in Rochester could be the result they need to do that although my feeling is their first victory in a Labour seat might well turn out to be the critical victory and perhaps that will have to wait until after 2015. To think though another 600 votes and Heywood could have been that seat.
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/522529343847673856
Neil never tires of reminding us the same research found the Greens with the highest IQ
" ... Looks like the Kippers will walk it ..."
It is just one poll, a snapshot of the recent past, not a prediction. It is, for UKIP, encouraging but there is a month to go yet and who knows what might happen in that time, especially as the Conservatives haven't got going yet.
http://www.capx.co/105449/
The European Day of Languages is another important EU contribution to our lives.
http://www.cilt.org.uk/home/valuing_languages/european_day_of_languages.aspx
I know their supposed strategy is that it's better to let the Blues vs Purples fight it out, but given the seat was one of theirs until recently - it looks very defeatest.
What on Earth must their activists be thinking? I'd be most demoralised at this stage of the election cycle if I was Red Teamer.