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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the eve of the CON primary result a UKIP donor funded Co

SystemSystem Posts: 12,213
edited October 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the eve of the CON primary result a UKIP donor funded ComRes Rochester poll has the purples 13% ahead

Th big by-election news tonight which has already been anticipated by the betting markets is a new UKIP donor funded poll of Rochester & Strood in the Daily Express.

Read the full story here


«134

Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Interesting
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Lib Dems lol
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    Good stuff.
    Rule Britannia.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Change compared to Survation poll:

    UKIP +3%
    Con -1%
    Lab -4%
    LD +1%
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    I'll take that actually!
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Lib Dems lol

    Give it 3 more polls and they'll be in held deposit land!
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    edited October 2014
    The fat lady may not be singing, but she's getting awfully close.

    EDIT: Some hope for the Tories in the Labour vote though. Surely a chance it will collapse tactically as the by-election campaign goes on. Given UKIP's recent form though, that may not help Cam & Co.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    kle4 previous thread. Orman campaigned for Bush 41 in 1988, voted for Perot in 1992, gave money to Clinton, Obama and Reid in 2008 and voted for Romney in 2012 so he cannot be said to be a Democrat stooge
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited October 2014
    UKIP is getting close to the finish line.
    For the so called anti-UKIP vote to give Tories a victory more than half of Labour votes have to switch to voting Tory (the LD and Greens are too compressed to make a difference).

    With this poll it's 30 days till Cameron faces a leadership challenge.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 38s39 seconds ago
    Rochester & Strood poll (ComRes):
    UKIP - 43%
    CON - 30%
    LAB - 21%
    GRN - 3%
    LDEM - 3%

    UKIP, despite all the negativity and bric-bats thrown at them this week. march on. :D
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited October 2014
    Look at the Labour numbers. This was their seat for 13 years until 2010.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    ComRes also test favourability towards some of the parties contesting the by-election together with key personalities:



    Total (very/fairly) favourable

    David Cameron 46%

    Nigel Farage 40%

    Boris Johnson 48%

    Mark Reckless 42%

    The Conservative Party 44%

    UKIP 48%

    Total (very/fairly) unfavourable

    David Cameron 49%

    Nigel Farage 47%

    Boris Johnson 44%

    Mark Reckless 46%

    The Conservative Party 51%

    UKIP 46%
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    A good poll for UKIP, but not much difference to Ashcroft's 9% UKIP lead in the seat and still well below the 35% Carswell won by in Clacton. Much will depend now on who the Tories pick to fight the seat tomorrow and how well they campaign
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @TheWatcher
    'Whose seat is it now?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 previous thread. Orman campaigned for Bush 41 in 1988, voted for Perot in 1992, gave money to Clinton, Obama and Reid in 2008 and voted for Romney in 2012 so he cannot be said to be a Democrat stooge

    Orman might not caucus with either side, if elected. However, I think Roberts will just hang on.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121
    Way to go, UKIP!
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Speedy said:

    UKIP is getting close to the finish line.
    For the so called anti-UKIP vote to give Tories a victory more than half of Labour votes have to switch to voting Tory (the LD and Greens are too compressed to make a difference).

    With this poll it's 30 days till Cameron faces a leadership challenge.

    57% of Tory Voters are sticking with the Tory candidate, who is TBA.

    Thinking of Yes Minister, and being a dirty blue cynic, do we get to see all the questions asked in the poll as well?

    Let's see what tomorrow brings before too many reach for the purple confetti.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    TheWatcher said:

    Look at the Labour numbers. This was their seat for 13 years until 2010.

    They have completely given up in the South
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    At what point do the Lib Dems simply merge with the greens? They're both full of vegan sandal-wearing bearded hippies, and on similarly tiny shares of the vote. May as well get it over with.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ComRes also test favourability towards some of the parties contesting the by-election together with key personalities:



    Total (very/fairly) favourable

    David Cameron 46%

    Nigel Farage 40%

    Boris Johnson 48%

    Mark Reckless 42%

    The Conservative Party 44%

    UKIP 48%

    Total (very/fairly) unfavourable

    David Cameron 49%

    Nigel Farage 47%

    Boris Johnson 44%

    Mark Reckless 46%

    The Conservative Party 51%

    UKIP 46%

    Not much chance for an anti-UKIP vote again from this.
    UKIP is more favourable and less unfavourable than the Tories in Rochester.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    TheWatcher said:

    Look at the Labour numbers. This was their seat until a few years ago.

    Look at the Tory numbers it was their seat until a few days ago.

    Another Tory lost seat looks certain.

    Disaster for Ed is Crap!!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    O/T:

    Canadian gunman apparently named as 32 year old Quebec-Algerian Michael Zehaf-Bibeau.

    Source: Frank Gardner, BBC News.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    edited October 2014
    Well, done and dusted then. Labour will probably not put too much effort in, the Tories aren't pulling in a mass anti-UKIP vote it seems, what's left of the LDs and the Green vote even if it all went Blue to stop UKIP would not help them. Cameron really is a zombie PM, not a hope of winning in 2015 even with a feeble official opposition. Must be an odd feeling.
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 previous thread. Orman campaigned for Bush 41 in 1988, voted for Perot in 1992, gave money to Clinton, Obama and Reid in 2008 and voted for Romney in 2012 so he cannot be said to be a Democrat stooge

    Sounds promising - I know nothing of his background, whether more Republican or Democrat leaning, but I'm sure we all know of politicians nominally independent who can be counted upon to in most things go along with one particular party all the same, so it's always interesting to see how much their own person such candidates are.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Lib Dems lol

    LibDems on course for 11 lost deposits from 19 Westminster by-elections this Parliament :)
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Plenty of 2010 Labour and Lib Dem support for Reckless. 30% and 39% respectively.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited October 2014
    AndyJS said:

    Change compared to Survation poll:

    UKIP +3%
    Con -1%
    Lab -4%
    LD +1%

    The two polls are very similar and both support each other.

  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    bigjohnowls said:

    TheWatcher said:

    Look at the Labour numbers. This was their seat until a few years ago.

    Look at the Tory numbers it was their seat until a few days ago.

    Another Tory lost seat looks certain.

    Disaster for Ed is Crap!!
    Are you happy with Labour having given up in the South? Whatever happened to one nation?
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    bigjohnowls said:

    TheWatcher said:

    Look at the Labour numbers. This was their seat until a few years ago.

    Look at the Tory numbers it was their seat until a few days ago.

    Another Tory lost seat looks certain.

    Disaster for Ed is Crap!!
    Wot no Baxter?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Interesting

    I would save your time and effort for a more winnable by-election
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Hundreds of young people at risk of child sexual exploitation in Sheffield were let down by police, a whistleblower has claimed.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/education-29725855

  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Re Flakey %, so the UKIP lead is entirely down to non-voters at the last general election?

    Hmm.. strokes chin.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited October 2014
    Smarmeron said:

    @TheWatcher
    'Whose seat is it now?

    Reckless's.

    How far North have Labour retreated?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited October 2014
    Socrates said:

    At what point do the Lib Dems simply merge with the greens? They're both full of vegan sandal-wearing bearded hippies, and on similarly tiny shares of the vote. May as well get it over with.

    Can you call any LD MP a vegan sandal-wearing bearded hippy?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Remember, this poll was before I go campaigning in Rochester & Strood
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,693
    If the Tories get all their vote out, squeeze Labour a little more (not much left in LDs) and UKIP don't get all their vote out then perhaps it could end up at Con - 36%, UKIP - 39%, Lab - 19%, Others - 6%, but doesn't look like the Tories can win it from here.
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 597
    Was this polling done before the Mike Reid song and the dodgy Polish MEP tie up?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,682
    Speedy said:

    UKIP is getting close to the finish line.
    For the so called anti-UKIP vote to give Tories a victory more than half of Labour votes have to switch to voting Tory (the LD and Greens are too compressed to make a difference).

    With this poll it's 30 days till Cameron faces a leadership challenge.

    I think the idea that Cameron would face a leadership challenge this side of a GE is just not realistic. For all that I dislike him as leader I think it is far too late for any leadership changes now - I would also say the same about Miliband and Clegg.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    nigel4england said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    TheWatcher said:

    Look at the Labour numbers. This was their seat until a few years ago.

    Look at the Tory numbers it was their seat until a few days ago.

    Another Tory lost seat looks certain.

    Disaster for Ed is Crap!!
    Are you happy with Labour having given up in the South? Whatever happened to one nation?
    Very happy to see the split on the right handing GE2015 to Ed is crap.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Anthony Wells ‏@anthonyjwells

    @GoodwinMJ Actually ComRes asked, and the Labour waverers do break **slightly** in the Conservatives' favour
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,693
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Remember, this poll was before I go campaigning in Rochester & Strood

    Please, don't. I want the Tories to win!
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited October 2014
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Remember, this poll was before I go campaigning in Rochester & Strood

    Or visit the nice Labour candidate.
    By the way did you visit Clacton before the by-election?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    Am I right in understanding that 28% of the 43%, that is about 11% of the total are those who were non voters in 2010?

    Game on. Labour voters are going to have to decide who they hate the most.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    The supplemental questions are quite good for UKIP too.

    http://ht.ly/Db40z
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    nigel4england said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    TheWatcher said:

    Look at the Labour numbers. This was their seat until a few years ago.

    Look at the Tory numbers it was their seat until a few days ago.

    Another Tory lost seat looks certain.

    Disaster for Ed is Crap!!
    Are you happy with Labour having given up in the South? Whatever happened to one nation?
    A common refrain, and one which should be of concern to Labour, but it hardly ameliorates the fact that the Tories are in a far worse state. Sure, Labour should be doing more to head off trouble in the future, but they can afford not to, at least for one more election (depending on if the UKIP juggernaut can retain momentum post 2015, which given they will probably have several MPs and a Labour government, for the moment, not offering a referendum, they should be able to).
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Remember, this poll was before I go campaigning in Rochester & Strood

    Please, don't. I want the Tories to win!
    Hey, I was in Edinburgh 3 days before the indyref. The polls had No, barely ahead.

    I did a bit of campaigning, and it became a No lead of 10%.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Juncker tells Cameron we can't change freedom of movement:

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-29731120

    So who's Cameron's boss? Jean-Claude Juncker or the British people? We'll see when No 10 releases its proposals. A proper points system suggests the latter, while a very high emergency brake number will suggest the former.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    TheWatcher said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    TheWatcher said:

    Look at the Labour numbers. This was their seat until a few years ago.

    Look at the Tory numbers it was their seat until a few days ago.

    Another Tory lost seat looks certain.

    Disaster for Ed is Crap!!
    Wot no Baxter?
    Can you enlighten me how to Baxter a single constituency.


  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Speedy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Remember, this poll was before I go campaigning in Rochester & Strood

    Or visit the nice Labour candidate.
    By the way did you visit Clacton before the by-election?
    No.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    MikeSmithson said:

    AndyJS said:

    Change compared to Survation poll:

    UKIP +3%
    Con -1%
    Lab -4%
    LD +1%

    The two polls are very similar and both support each other.

    Amazing that after a few weeks there has been almost no change.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Remember, this poll was before I go campaigning in Rochester & Strood

    You need to wear Tory Blue trainers instead of red ones!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    bigjohnowls said:

    TheWatcher said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    TheWatcher said:

    Look at the Labour numbers. This was their seat until a few years ago.

    Look at the Tory numbers it was their seat until a few days ago.

    Another Tory lost seat looks certain.

    Disaster for Ed is Crap!!
    Wot no Baxter?
    Can you enlighten me how to Baxter a single constituency.


    Simples, you work out the swings in this seat, and extrapolate across the country.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    bigjohnowls said:

    nigel4england said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    TheWatcher said:

    Look at the Labour numbers. This was their seat until a few years ago.

    Look at the Tory numbers it was their seat until a few days ago.

    Another Tory lost seat looks certain.

    Disaster for Ed is Crap!!
    Are you happy with Labour having given up in the South? Whatever happened to one nation?
    Very happy to see the split on the right handing GE2015 to Ed is crap.
    And any chance of a referendum disappearing way, way, way off into the future.

    Go Kippers!
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    TheWatcher said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @TheWatcher
    'Whose seat is it now?

    Reckless's.

    How far North have Labour retreated?
    Hastings and Brighton
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    MikeSmithson said:

    AndyJS said:

    Change compared to Survation poll:

    UKIP +3%
    Con -1%
    Lab -4%
    LD +1%

    The two polls are very similar and both support each other.

    The main change in support between the two polls is possibly evidence of Labour deciding not to campaign 100%. I don't think that decision had been taken at the time of the first poll.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    Socrates said:

    At what point do the Lib Dems simply merge with the greens? They're both full of vegan sandal-wearing bearded hippies, and on similarly tiny shares of the vote. May as well get it over with.

    I thought to the extreme left, where the Green party has seemed to position itself, the LDs were regarded as nothing more than Tories now, so I doubt a merger would find much traction right now. I suppose if after the current leadership are removed the LDs could return to where their former supporters seemed to want them to be, on par with or even more left of Labour, and be more suitable to the Greens, but then some of their less lefty MPs are the ones who might still be left, and proportionally more of a force in a smaller party than before, so maybe not.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    edited October 2014
    Artist said:

    Plenty of 2010 Labour and Lib Dem support for Reckless. 30% and 39% respectively.

    Anything to beat the Tories. From a practical standpoint Labour probably still believe they can win 2015 even with a maximised UKIP vote, and the few LDs might feel they could hold onto a handful more seats with more UKIP votes cutting the Tory vote in their seats (even though the level of their decline has gone past that strategy I think)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Ho ho IIRC, these polls can cost up to 20grand.

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB

    I wonder whether the cost of the 1500 sample ComRes Rochester poll will have to be included in UKIPs election expenses return
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,817
    bigjohnowls said:

    nigel4england said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    TheWatcher said:

    Look at the Labour numbers. This was their seat until a few years ago.

    Look at the Tory numbers it was their seat until a few days ago.

    Another Tory lost seat looks certain.

    Disaster for Ed is Crap!!
    Are you happy with Labour having given up in the South? Whatever happened to one nation?
    Very happy to see the split on the right handing GE2015 to Ed is crap.
    The nature of the split on the right has made the right electable in the north of England again.
  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    anotherDave said:

    The supplemental questions are quite good for UKIP too.

    http://ht.ly/Db40z

    David Cameron pledged to campaign ‘very, very hard’ in the constituency but 66% of people polled said that ‘by sending so many politicians to campaign in Rochester & Strood, the Conservatives are coming across as desperate’.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited October 2014
    I think if there are 9,000 or more primaries returned Cons still have a chance

    Could be wrong but to me that is much more solid than any poll
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    DavidL said:

    Am I right in understanding that 28% of the 43%, that is about 11% of the total are those who were non voters in 2010?

    Game on. Labour voters are going to have to decide who they hate the most.

    Why they vote LAB surely?

    I certainly would it looks a comfortable UKIP win IMO
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Odds on UKIP holding up surprisingly well. Sure it's not a huge lead, but another ~10% lead after another few weeks of campaigning: I'd have thought the odds would be very short about now.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Speedy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Remember, this poll was before I go campaigning in Rochester & Strood

    Or visit the nice Labour candidate.
    By the way did you visit Clacton before the by-election?
    No.
    Beware when you go there:

    James Forsyth ‏@JGForsyth 4m4 minutes ago
    Most worrying thing for the Tories in that Rochester poll, that 62% view the by-election as a chance to kick the govt http://bit.ly/1tgD7rw
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2014
    The last time Labour won a general election in 2005, the notional result in Rochester & Strood was as follows:

    Con 18,877 (42.6%)
    Lab 18,374 (41.5%)
    LD 5,468 (12.4%)
    UKIP 1,547 (3.5%)

    Con majority over Lab: 503 votes (1.1%)

    http://election.pressassociation.com/constituencies.html
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    SeanF A new Monmouth poll shows Roberts and Orman exactly tied
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2014/10/20/poll-shows-orman-and-roberts-tied-in-kansas-senate-race/

    Kle4 Glad you found it useful
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Proof that Labour are soft-pedaling: Q7 Which parties have you been contacted by?
    Con 86%
    UKIP 71%
    Lab 30%
    LD 7%
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ho ho IIRC, these polls can cost up to 20grand.

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB

    I wonder whether the cost of the 1500 sample ComRes Rochester poll will have to be included in UKIPs election expenses return

    If I decided to spend £20k on a poll would it count as an election expense for UKIP?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Speedy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Speedy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Remember, this poll was before I go campaigning in Rochester & Strood

    Or visit the nice Labour candidate.
    By the way did you visit Clacton before the by-election?
    No.
    Beware when you go there:

    James Forsyth ‏@JGForsyth 4m4 minutes ago
    Most worrying thing for the Tories in that Rochester poll, that 62% view the by-election as a chance to kick the govt http://bit.ly/1tgD7rw
    By-elections are usually about kicking the government, so I'm not sure why the Tories have staked so much on the result.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    edited October 2014
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Speedy said:

    UKIP is getting close to the finish line.
    For the so called anti-UKIP vote to give Tories a victory more than half of Labour votes have to switch to voting Tory (the LD and Greens are too compressed to make a difference).

    With this poll it's 30 days till Cameron faces a leadership challenge.

    I think the idea that Cameron would face a leadership challenge this side of a GE is just not realistic. For all that I dislike him as leader I think it is far too late for any leadership changes now - I would also say the same about Miliband and Clegg.
    It's not about who's in charge, it's about policies now. A new leader could come in, promise to pull out of the EU and dramatically reduce immigration (or even place a moratorium on it until a full points sytem is established) if his party wins the GE, among other thing, but that ain't going to happen. Cameron for Gove or May or whoever - to the general public - is just one faceless politician replaced by another. Things are beyond that stage.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ho ho IIRC, these polls can cost up to 20grand.

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB

    I wonder whether the cost of the 1500 sample ComRes Rochester poll will have to be included in UKIPs election expenses return

    If I decided to spend £20k on a poll would it count as an election expense for UKIP?
    Depends on UKIP's level of involvement.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ho ho IIRC, these polls can cost up to 20grand.

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB

    I wonder whether the cost of the 1500 sample ComRes Rochester poll will have to be included in UKIPs election expenses return

    Unless UKIP paid for it, there's no reason for that.

    If a UKIP supporter paid for it, and he's published the result for all to see, I don't see how it can be considered a donation to UKIP.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    Speedy said:



    With this poll it's 30 days till Cameron faces a leadership challenge.

    Seems fairly pointless. UKIP won't do a pact with a new leader even if whoever is leader wants one, and trying to tell UKIPers that the Tories will become more like UKIP under that new leader will be ineffective when UKIP are winning by-elections voting for proper UKIP.

    The Cameroon approach will not win them most seats or votes, probably, but becoming UKIP while UKIP still exists, which is surely the first thing a new Leader would try to do (or pretend to do), seems unlikely to do any better.

    May as well sit tight, and tack to the right after the 2015 elections, and we'll finally see if the dreams of the Tory right were correct all along and that the UKIP vote will plunge and the Tories start posting big poll leads again. Or if they continue to languish.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    kle4/Socrates I normally vote Tory and have been a Tory member, but since 2010 I have voted LD in several local elections, not all the LD support now is leftwing by any means, indeed most of the leftwingers have returned to their natural home in Labour or already defected to the Greens
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,466
    edited October 2014
    AndyJS said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    AndyJS said:

    Change compared to Survation poll:

    UKIP +3%
    Con -1%
    Lab -4%
    LD +1%

    The two polls are very similar and both support each other.

    The main change in support between the two polls is possibly evidence of Labour deciding not to campaign 100%. I don't think that decision had been taken at the time of the first poll.
    That looks reasonable, Andy.

    There's definitely some scope for Tories closing the gap by taking Labour tactical votes, but ten points is a lot.

    Bit disappointing from a betting viewpoint. I was hoping for a nice tight race with fortunes fluctuating. It's already started to feel like a re-run of Clacton.

  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Perhaps Marf can do a new cartoon showing the Labour map of England.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    bigjohnowls said:

    DavidL said:

    Am I right in understanding that 28% of the 43%, that is about 11% of the total are those who were non voters in 2010?

    Game on. Labour voters are going to have to decide who they hate the most.

    Why they vote LAB surely?

    I certainly would it looks a comfortable UKIP win IMO
    Is it not all about hate? Are you suggesting there are positive reasons for voting Labour these days? Seriously?
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    bigjohnowls said:

    nigel4england said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    TheWatcher said:

    Look at the Labour numbers. This was their seat until a few years ago.

    Look at the Tory numbers it was their seat until a few days ago.

    Another Tory lost seat looks certain.

    Disaster for Ed is Crap!!
    Are you happy with Labour having given up in the South? Whatever happened to one nation?
    Very happy to see the split on the right handing GE2015 to Ed is crap.
    Labour aren't the opposition anymore, they're irrelevant.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    nigel4england said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    TheWatcher said:

    Look at the Labour numbers. This was their seat until a few years ago.

    Look at the Tory numbers it was their seat until a few days ago.

    Another Tory lost seat looks certain.

    Disaster for Ed is Crap!!
    Are you happy with Labour having given up in the South? Whatever happened to one nation?
    Very happy to see the split on the right handing GE2015 to Ed is crap.
    The nature of the split on the right has made the right electable in the north of England again.
    How many right wing GE2015 gains are you expecting in the North?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    anotherDave said:

    The supplemental questions are quite good for UKIP too.

    http://ht.ly/Db40z

    “I am worried that a vote for UKIP at the general election next May might mean Ed Miliband becoming Prime Minister”

    Agree 38%

    Disagree 54%

    DK 6%
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    edited October 2014
    Some positives for the Tories in that it is sometimes better to be slightly behind than ahead in terms of the expectations game, and this poll does give the candidate selected tomorrow much more of a platform to build on than poor Giles Watling had in Clacton
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Evening all and 3 questions from this UKIP funded poll
    1) It is from ComRes, how reliable are they?
    2) 28% of UKIP support from non-voters, other than John Rentoul does anyone believe they will all turn out to vote?
    3) Before the Tory candidate has even been selected, Mark Reckless has lost 6% of his 2010 vote so how much more will he lose over the next month?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Speedy said:

    UKIP is getting close to the finish line.
    For the so called anti-UKIP vote to give Tories a victory more than half of Labour votes have to switch to voting Tory (the LD and Greens are too compressed to make a difference).

    With this poll it's 30 days till Cameron faces a leadership challenge.

    I think the idea that Cameron would face a leadership challenge this side of a GE is just not realistic. For all that I dislike him as leader I think it is far too late for any leadership changes now - I would also say the same about Miliband and Clegg.
    Don't blame me, the Spectator quoted a cabinet minister for that no confidence vote if UKIP wins Rochester.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    bigjohnowls said:

    TheWatcher said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    TheWatcher said:

    Look at the Labour numbers. This was their seat until a few years ago.

    Look at the Tory numbers it was their seat until a few days ago.

    Another Tory lost seat looks certain.

    Disaster for Ed is Crap!!
    Wot no Baxter?
    Can you enlighten me how to Baxter a single constituency.


    Give it a go.

    You do it for every other poll published here.

    And some people might not have heard of Electoral Calculus.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    bigjohnowls said:

    TheWatcher said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    TheWatcher said:

    Look at the Labour numbers. This was their seat until a few years ago.

    Look at the Tory numbers it was their seat until a few days ago.

    Another Tory lost seat looks certain.

    Disaster for Ed is Crap!!
    Wot no Baxter?
    Can you enlighten me how to Baxter a single constituency.


    Constituency change replicated throughout the country.

    viz

    UKIP 535
    Lab 85
    LD 5
    Con 1
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    nigel4england said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    TheWatcher said:

    Look at the Labour numbers. This was their seat until a few years ago.

    Look at the Tory numbers it was their seat until a few days ago.

    Another Tory lost seat looks certain.

    Disaster for Ed is Crap!!
    Are you happy with Labour having given up in the South? Whatever happened to one nation?
    Very happy to see the split on the right handing GE2015 to Ed is crap.
    Labour aren't the opposition anymore, they're irrelevant.
    Now give it a few months and the first five words will be true. Ed is crap....ED is PM
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    bigjohnowls said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    nigel4england said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    TheWatcher said:

    Look at the Labour numbers. This was their seat until a few years ago.

    Look at the Tory numbers it was their seat until a few days ago.

    Another Tory lost seat looks certain.

    Disaster for Ed is Crap!!
    Are you happy with Labour having given up in the South? Whatever happened to one nation?
    Very happy to see the split on the right handing GE2015 to Ed is crap.
    The nature of the split on the right has made the right electable in the north of England again.
    How many right wing GE2015 gains are you expecting in the North?
    Not many, but GE2020 looks very promising.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    AndyJS said:

    Speedy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Speedy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Remember, this poll was before I go campaigning in Rochester & Strood

    Or visit the nice Labour candidate.
    By the way did you visit Clacton before the by-election?
    No.
    Beware when you go there:

    James Forsyth ‏@JGForsyth 4m4 minutes ago
    Most worrying thing for the Tories in that Rochester poll, that 62% view the by-election as a chance to kick the govt http://bit.ly/1tgD7rw
    By-elections are usually about kicking the government, so I'm not sure why the Tories have staked so much on the result.
    Because they have no choice - even with a weak Labour the electoral factors make winning in 2015 extremely difficult for them if UKIP are a major force, and so they need to prove they can be beaten. They'd seemed to have done so before, but the defections and, if it happens, a second UKIP win, makes more defectors likely, a narrative of defeat to be even more ingrained.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,466
    nigel4england said:

    Perhaps Marf can do a new cartoon showing the Labour map of England.

    Be a bit small, wouldn't it?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ho ho IIRC, these polls can cost up to 20grand.

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB

    I wonder whether the cost of the 1500 sample ComRes Rochester poll will have to be included in UKIPs election expenses return

    If I decided to spend £20k on a poll would it count as an election expense for UKIP?
    Depends on UKIP's level of involvement.
    Haha would look AWFULLY biter and sore if the Tories challenged the result!
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    TheWatcher said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @TheWatcher
    'Whose seat is it now?

    How far North have Labour retreated?

    Primrose Hill is still a redoubt I hear.
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    DavidL said:

    Am I right in understanding that 28% of the 43%, that is about 11% of the total are those who were non voters in 2010?

    Game on. Labour voters are going to have to decide who they hate the most.

    Go to bed with Nigel, wake up with Ed.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    DavidL said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    DavidL said:

    Am I right in understanding that 28% of the 43%, that is about 11% of the total are those who were non voters in 2010?

    Game on. Labour voters are going to have to decide who they hate the most.

    Why they vote LAB surely?

    I certainly would it looks a comfortable UKIP win IMO
    Is it not all about hate? Are you suggesting there are positive reasons for voting Labour these days? Seriously?
    Need more purple an red and less blue than 2010 though eh?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    isam said:

    anotherDave said:

    The supplemental questions are quite good for UKIP too.

    http://ht.ly/Db40z

    “I am worried that a vote for UKIP at the general election next May might mean Ed Miliband becoming Prime Minister”

    Agree 38%

    Disagree 54%

    DK 6%
    38% could be the roof for the Tories in Rochester.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Some interesting tweets tonight from Matthew Goodwin:

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ

    Such as:

    "There's more bad news for Cons: once again majority of voters reject idea that vote for Ukip is vote for Miliband"
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    RodCrosby said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    TheWatcher said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    TheWatcher said:

    Look at the Labour numbers. This was their seat until a few years ago.

    Look at the Tory numbers it was their seat until a few days ago.

    Another Tory lost seat looks certain.

    Disaster for Ed is Crap!!
    Wot no Baxter?
    Can you enlighten me how to Baxter a single constituency.


    Constituency change replicated throughout the country.

    viz

    UKIP 535
    Lab 85
    LD 5
    Con 1
    Which one stays Blue, out of interest?
  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    AndyJS said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    AndyJS said:

    Change compared to Survation poll:

    UKIP +3%
    Con -1%
    Lab -4%
    LD +1%

    The two polls are very similar and both support each other.

    The main change in support between the two polls is possibly evidence of Labour deciding not to campaign 100%. I don't think that decision had been taken at the time of the first poll.
    That looks reasonable, Andy.

    There's definitely some scope for Tories closing the gap by taking Labour tactical votes, but ten points is a lot.

    Bit disappointing from a betting viewpoint. I was hoping for a nice tight race with fortunes fluctuating. It's already started to feel like a re-run of Clacton.

    If anything the secondary questions suggest that the predominance of tactical voting will benefit UKIP (Reckless unfairly attacked by Tories 50-40, Tories look desperate 66-30, Reckless principled 53-37, Good opportunity to kick the Government 62 -35)
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    MarkSenior said:

    TheWatcher said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @TheWatcher
    'Whose seat is it now?

    Reckless's.

    How far North have Labour retreated?
    Hastings and Brighton
    I think the Plymouth constituencies are further south.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Favourable numbers.
    ComRes's recent "would consider voting for" numbers were very close to their previous month's "favourable" numbers.

    In this poll we see the UKIP VI (43%) being between Mr Reckless' favourable +42% and UKIP's +48%.

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    nigel4england said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    TheWatcher said:

    Look at the Labour numbers. This was their seat until a few years ago.

    Look at the Tory numbers it was their seat until a few days ago.

    Another Tory lost seat looks certain.

    Disaster for Ed is Crap!!
    Are you happy with Labour having given up in the South? Whatever happened to one nation?
    Very happy to see the split on the right handing GE2015 to Ed is crap.
    Labour aren't the opposition anymore, they're irrelevant.
    Wheras the Tories are about to lose power to the Ed is crap and irrelevant party?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    nigel4england said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    TheWatcher said:

    Look at the Labour numbers. This was their seat until a few years ago.

    Look at the Tory numbers it was their seat until a few days ago.

    Another Tory lost seat looks certain.

    Disaster for Ed is Crap!!
    Are you happy with Labour having given up in the South? Whatever happened to one nation?
    Very happy to see the split on the right handing GE2015 to Ed is crap.
    Labour aren't the opposition anymore, they're irrelevant.
    No they're not. Nor are the LDs, as they are still likely to win up to 15-25 seats, which though much reduced is not irrelevant if a majority is tight, or there is a hung parliament. Labour are not taking advantage of Tory weaknesses in the way an opposition should, but that doesn't make them irrelevant when they will win enough of their heartlands to certainly be largest party, and probably have a majority. I simply don't understand how a party that even in the worst of projections will have hundreds of seats could be irrelevant.
This discussion has been closed.