I was not lucky as although the householder let me use his toilet I had picked the only house in Yorkshire still to use Izal.
I think we had that stuff back in my old school days - Is it a bit like grease prof paper?
Yes and the random house only had about 10 sheets of this grease proof paper stuff which took about 3 flushes to go down. I left with a thank you and ran with the soon to be Mrs Bj to a restaurant to find some proper paper and finish the job off.
As John Vidal, Environment Editor, Guardian, points out, Conservatives face a growing anti-fracking vote in 120 Constituencies, including most of the Front Bench. Labour only has fifteen fracked constituencies. No wonder the Greens are surging (5% to 8%). UKIP have missed a trick here by supporting fracking. They could be hunting 100 seats, not 5.
A worthy ambition, El, but I reckon it will take you only so far.
What would you make of this constituency for example?
2010 Result: Boston & Skegness
I think that's the interesting challenge, and the place where a programmatic model becomes much more useful than a simple spreadsheet.
If you provide a framework for people to plug a JavaScript-based model into, then they can introduce any factors they like into that model.
In effect, the user writes a short program ("method") that takes as input the constituency, and returns as output the prediction for that constituency. That method can call up any available data for the constituency that the user thinks is relevant, and weight it accordingly.
So, for example, the available data could include the geographical location of each constituency (let's say a simple centre point, to make the calculations easier). You could then add a line in your method to say ""if the constituency location is on or near the East Coast, increase the UKIP vote by n%".
But if I spend time working on this rather than stuff that actually pays the mortgage, Mrs Capitano will kill me. Ah well.
I was not lucky as although the householder let me use his toilet I had picked the only house in Yorkshire still to use Izal.
I think we had that stuff back in my old school days - Is it a bit like grease prof paper?
Yes and the random house only had about 10 sheets of this grease proof paper stuff which took about 3 flushes to go down. I left with a thank you and ran with the soon to be Mrs Bj to a restaurant to find some proper paper and finish the job off.
It is excellent cartridge paper for use with black powder. Wouldn't wipe my a**e on it though.
[snip] Joe Ashton, Richard Caborn, Tony Benn and Harry Barnes.
Ashton was the MP shagging a Thai prostitute when his local brothel was raided wasn't he?
Apparently he reckons he just needed the toilet really bad.
It can happen to the best you know
Ironic given his replacement in Bassetlaw is akin to the Puritan of the Labour Party.
Surely a potential UKIP defector with Field and Danczuk
I doubt it. John Mann is old school Labour a bit of a younger Dennis Skinner in some ways, very tribal. plus Bassetlaw is less UKIP fertile than other local areas including Newark.
Has anyone actually met any of the elite who rule us?
Briefly "met" Boris twice. The second time he shook me by the hand and hoped I'd vote for him. I answered that I'd love to, but as we had just got off a train from Hampshire I and the other commuters would be unable to do so.
The previous time he narrowly missed me cycling at a furious rate across Piccadilly and up Clarges Street I think.
This is only my second most embarassing needing a dump moment.
Think I will keep my worst one back for a bit, but somebody did get admitted to hospital and was diagnosed with a rib injury brought on by excessive laughing after I let them in on it.
People who want to buy a £2m house generally want to buy it because of the location, size, design, etc. I suspect not many people able to buy a £2m house will be put off by a £3k per year tax (much like how people still buy houses in higher stamp duty brackets). And if some are, then so what? House prices have trebled in the last 16 years, if they go down a bit (not that I think they will) that's not a big problem.
As for people who are emotionally attached to homes. Firstly, equity release. No-one who has lived in their home for 5+ years will have to sell it - the increase in value will make equity release solve their mansion tax indefinitely. Secondly, whilst I do sympathise, quite frankly there are worse things than being forced to cash in an asset you are emotionally attached to. It's not the end of the world if some widows have to move house. Plenty of people have been forced out of their areas by rising house prices and rents.
I think you hugely underestimate how upsetting it can be to a widow in her 80's to be uprooted from a family home with all of its memories of a much loved husband. Nor do I share your faith in equity release schemes.
I really think Labour would not want to be associated with a policy of harassing elderly widows out of their homes or driving them into the arms of City spivs in order to pay a tax expressly levied on the super rich. Not a Labour party that has made such a hoo ha over the bedroom tax and other wickednesses of this government.
The best way is to allow the tax to be paid on death or sale and there should not be a limit of £42k income for this - a level at which one is only a basic rate tax payer. Make the limit the point at which the top rate of tax cuts in or make it optional whether you want to rollover the tax until sale/death.
I agree with Bob-a-Job that £2mio buys you a very nice house indeed and it is absurd to pretend that this is the normal price for a normal family home, even in London. The two main problems with the tax IMO are that council tax bands at the top end i.e. above the current top limit of £320K are better and that it will not raise the amounts of money Labour are claiming and that, inevitably, it will be applied to more and more houses and will end up being a "terraced house tax".
There is a sensible debate to be had about the best and fairest way of taxing property but Labour are not having this debate just indulging in adolescent "let's take money from that group of horrible people - multimillionaires living in £10 mio houses (boo, hiss) and give it to these nice people here - the NHS (cheers)".
What's the difference between a widow having to find money for a new council tax band instead of a new mansion tax? Also, where does faith come into equity release? It's a well known transaction.
EDIT: Also, the harm the widow feels if she moves should be weighed up against the harm the graduate feels when they discover they will never own property in the entire city they grew up in. The property market doesn't allow us an option where no-one is harmed, we missed that chance.
A worthy ambition, El, but I reckon it will take you only so far.
What would you make of this constituency for example?
2010 Result: Boston & Skegness
I think that's the interesting challenge, and the place where a programmatic model becomes much more useful than a simple spreadsheet.
If you provide a framework for people to plug a JavaScript-based model into, then they can introduce any factors they like into that model.
In effect, the user writes a short program ("method") that takes as input the constituency, and returns as output the prediction for that constituency. That method can call up any available data for the constituency that the user thinks is relevant, and weight it accordingly.
So, for example, the available data could include the geographical location of each constituency (let's say a simple centre point, to make the calculations easier). You could then add a line in your method to say ""if the constituency location is on or near the East Coast, increase the UKIP vote by n%".
But if I spend time working on this rather than stuff that actually pays the mortgage, Mrs Capitano will kill me. Ah well.
Indeed, El.
Especially as you will probably find that having done all that hard work, all you can get on with Paddy Power is £1.50 at 6/4. Hardly beats working for a living. :-(
It's offensive against music. In terms of being specifically offensive to the afro-Caribbean diaspora (more than anyone else with ears), doesn't one always sing Calypso in that accent? As far as I was aware it was like pop music in an American accent and Opera in Italian.
Given the demise of UNS, I would love to see an open-source, available-to-all predictor engine, where you could feed in the poll numbers you trust; pull in external data sources (e.g. demographics, local council election results); weight them as you so fit; and get a GE2015 prediction out the end of it. Essentially, bringing modelling to all of us.
It should be something that can reasonably trivially be run in-browser in JavaScript. It would be a fascinating project for someone. I'd probably be capable of the coding, but don't know enough of the statistics or have enough of a polling background to write anything useful.
(obligatory "have you met the elite?": yes, I've met Cameron. Astonishingly plausible and likeable; you're reminded of why people voted for him before familiarity set in.)
A worthy ambition, El, but I reckon it will take you only so far.
What would you make of this constituency for example?
You won't get better than 4/7 UKIP now. How would you get that from your spreadsheet?
I'm afraid that for the most part we're going to have to rely mainly on that supercomputer found between the ears.
Indeed we are, which is going to make it the most interesting and potentially profitable general election for decades. It should also make this site a unique resource and obligatory reading for anyone interested in turning a few quid, providing we can perhaps dial back on the tribal posts.
Betting advice is not always well received, and certainly doesn't cross partisan lines
Last year I suggested that taking 11/10 about UKIP to outpoll the Tories in the Euros was a fantastic bet, especially considering the y were 2/1 to win the whole kaboodle and the Tories were 10/1...
All I got was a load of people telling me the 10/1 was the bet and a lawyer telling me that I didn't know how to price up match bets, despite having done so for a living for 10 years
It's offensive against music. In terms of being specifically offensive to the afro-Caribbean diaspora (more than anyone else with ears), doesn't one always sing Calypso in that accent? As far as I was aware it was like pop music in an American accent and Opera in Italian.
For those who thought Sundays thread was extremely slow. I reckon a who have you played bingo with thread would probably be a bad idea as would a where have you knocked on a random door to ask for a dump thread probably even slower
I am coming to the conclusion PB is not the place for me
Mr. Owls, be fair. There's been tons of posting on the referendum, conferences and the by-election. There's probably collective exhaustion, and a little bit of a break until the Rochester by-election.
Given the demise of UNS, I would love to see an open-source, available-to-all predictor engine, where you could feed in the poll numbers you trust; pull in external data sources (e.g. demographics, local council election results); weight them as you so fit; and get a GE2015 prediction out the end of it. Essentially, bringing modelling to all of us.
It should be something that can reasonably trivially be run in-browser in JavaScript. It would be a fascinating project for someone. I'd probably be capable of the coding, but don't know enough of the statistics or have enough of a polling background to write anything useful.
(obligatory "have you met the elite?": yes, I've met Cameron. Astonishingly plausible and likeable; you're reminded of why people voted for him before familiarity set in.)
A worthy ambition, El, but I reckon it will take you only so far.
What would you make of this constituency for example?
You won't get better than 4/7 UKIP now. How would you get that from your spreadsheet?
I'm afraid that for the most part we're going to have to rely mainly on that supercomputer found between the ears.
Indeed we are, which is going to make it the most interesting and potentially profitable general election for decades. It should also make this site a unique resource and obligatory reading for anyone interested in turning a few quid, providing we can perhaps dial back on the tribal posts.
Betting advice is not always well received, and certainly doesn't cross partisan lines
Last year I suggested that taking 11/10 about UKIP to outpoll the Tories in the Euros was a fantastic bet, especially considering the y were 2/1 to win the whole kaboodle and the Tories were 10/1...
All I got was a load of people telling me the 10/1 was the bet and a lawyer telling me that I didn't know how to price up match bets, despite having done so for a living for 10 years
"I have now consulted two of Britain’s leading experts on election law, both of whom have been involved in high profile cases. Neither wanted to be named but both believe that the primary process could open the Conservative contender to an election petition in the event of them winning."
WRT name-dropping, I organised a variety of functions and had dinner/lunch with Michael Howard, Ann Widdecombe, Louise Mensch, Nadine Dorries, Lord Salisbury, David Trimble, Frederick Forsyth, Sir Ivan Lawrence, Frank Field, Kate Hoey, Jeffrey Donaldson, Michael Mates, and Iain Duncan-Smith.
If we're name dropping, I once beat Daniel Day-Lewis in an acting competition.
I met Jeremy Thorpe once. For younger readers he was a Liberal (NOT LD) Party Leader. Very charismatic!
For the avoidance of doubt, or older readers, in my cricketing days I batted right-handed and bowled right-arm spin. Not very well, but for one side only.
Thanks for your offer on the previous thread, but I've got Marf's email address somewhere as we've dealt before. I find it irritating (a little bit anyway) that the link doesn't work for me.
It's offensive against music. In terms of being specifically offensive to the afro-Caribbean diaspora (more than anyone else with ears), doesn't one always sing Calypso in that accent? As far as I was aware it was like pop music in an American accent and Opera in Italian.
Yup. For example...
Funny enough it bugs me quite a lot when English singers adopt an American accent to sing rather than use their normal voice.. but when I said this to a musician mate he said if they didn't do that every song sounds like a Paul Weller impression.. if you're from the SE
I don't think its taking the mick out of Americans or that anyone should apologise for offending them though
Isn't there a bit of a fake Caribbean accent in "Dreadlock Holiday" by 10CC?
Alot of UB40's stuff is in cod jamaican accents. However, that is obviously ok as they're left wing. Therefore their cultural appropriation is entirely valid, and no doubt their many afro-Caribbean friends are far more genuine than Mike Reid's 'chums', who are no doubt unaware they are friends with such a reactionary supporter of the white patriarchy. [/sarcasm]
I wish the press had attacked this for it's God-awfulness (which would have been true) -I can just tell that cynically attacking it for 'racism' is going to end up making me sign up to Mike Read's barmy army and support this song.
For those who thought Sundays thread was extremely slow. I reckon a who have you played bingo with thread would probably be a bad idea as would a where have you knocked on a random door to ask for a dump thread probably even slower
I am coming to the conclusion PB is not the place for me
PB.com has a generous policy of returning your entrance fee at the door.
It's offensive against music. In terms of being specifically offensive to the afro-Caribbean diaspora (more than anyone else with ears), doesn't one always sing Calypso in that accent? As far as I was aware it was like pop music in an American accent and Opera in Italian.
Yup. For example...
Funny enough it bugs me quite a lot when English singers adopt an American accent to sing rather than use their normal voice.. but when I said this to a musician mate he said if they didn't do that every song sounds like a Paul Weller impression.. if you're from the SE
I don't think its taking the mick out of Americans or that anyone should apologise for offending them though
Wasn't it part of Ian Drury's originality and appeal that he rendered his rock in the local vernacular?
'My given name is Dickie And I come from Billericay.'
Thanks for your offer on the previous thread, but I've got Marf's email address somewhere as we've dealt before. I find it irritating (a little bit anyway) that the link doesn't work for me.
Many popular acts in the late 1970s and early 1980s imitated Caribbean sounds, whether it was the Police and UB40 ripping off reggae, or the whole ska sound.
It's offensive against music. In terms of being specifically offensive to the afro-Caribbean diaspora (more than anyone else with ears), doesn't one always sing Calypso in that accent? As far as I was aware it was like pop music in an American accent and Opera in Italian.
Yup. For example...
Funny enough it bugs me quite a lot when English singers adopt an American accent to sing rather than use their normal voice.. but when I said this to a musician mate he said if they didn't do that every song sounds like a Paul Weller impression.. if you're from the SE
I don't think its taking the mick out of Americans or that anyone should apologise for offending them though
Wasn't it part of Ian Drury's originality and appeal that he rendered his rock in the local vernacular?
'My given name is Dickie And I come from Billericay.'
"I have now consulted two of Britain’s leading experts on election law, both of whom have been involved in high profile cases. Neither wanted to be named but both believe that the primary process could open the Conservative contender to an election petition in the event of them winning."
"could open". Could. Could. Running in a marathon could give you a heart attack, too.
The extra legal bit not mentioned in the link is... Section 90ZA (3) : “for the purposes of the candidate's election” means with a view to, or otherwise in connection with, promoting or procuring the candidate's election at the election.
If the primary is just the initial stage, and not considered part of getting the candidate elected, then presumably that's ok. (But I am not a lawyer.)
Incidentally do the Twitter brigade who have got agitated about Mike Reid also get agitated when other nationalities fake an English accent? Do they condemn Mary Poppins because of Dick Van Dyke's awful cockney accent?
It's offensive against music. In terms of being specifically offensive to the afro-Caribbean diaspora (more than anyone else with ears), doesn't one always sing Calypso in that accent? As far as I was aware it was like pop music in an American accent and Opera in Italian.
Yup. For example...
Funny enough it bugs me quite a lot when English singers adopt an American accent to sing rather than use their normal voice.. but when I said this to a musician mate he said if they didn't do that every song sounds like a Paul Weller impression.. if you're from the SE
I don't think its taking the mick out of Americans or that anyone should apologise for offending them though
Wasn't it part of Ian Drury's originality and appeal that he rendered his rock in the local vernacular?
'My given name is Dickie And I come from Billericay.'
A deathless couplet, if ever there was one.
A few people have done it successfully.
Damon Albarn & Lily Allen spring to mind. Both accused of being more 'Landahhn' than they really are. At the other end of the scale, the cut glass tones of the not unnattractive Sophie Ellis-Bextor.
If we're name dropping, I once beat Daniel Day-Lewis in an acting competition.
I met Jeremy Thorpe once. For younger readers he was a Liberal (NOT LD) Party Leader. Very charismatic! For the avoidance of doubt, or older readers, in my cricketing days I batted right-handed and bowled right-arm spin. Not very well, but for one side only.
Incidentally do the Twitter brigade who have got agitated about Mike Reid also get agitated when other nationalities fake an English accent? Do they condemn Mary Poppins because of Dick Van Dyke's awful cockney accent?
Please don't get me started on that. Or Kevin Costner as Robin Hood
WRT name-dropping, I organised a variety of functions and had dinner/lunch with Michael Howard, Ann Widdecombe, Louise Mensch, Nadine Dorries, Lord Salisbury, David Trimble, Frederick Forsyth, Sir Ivan Lawrence, Frank Field, Kate Hoey, Jeffrey Donaldson, Michael Mates, and Iain Duncan-Smith.
All of them were interesting and good company.
Louise Mensch doesn't count. She used to slum it around here.
On that basis we could all claim Yvette Cooper and Lord Monckton. (Not that we would want to, much.)
It's offensive against music. In terms of being specifically offensive to the afro-Caribbean diaspora (more than anyone else with ears), doesn't one always sing Calypso in that accent? As far as I was aware it was like pop music in an American accent and Opera in Italian.
Yup. For example...
Funny enough it bugs me quite a lot when English singers adopt an American accent to sing rather than use their normal voice.. but when I said this to a musician mate he said if they didn't do that every song sounds like a Paul Weller impression.. if you're from the SE
I don't think its taking the mick out of Americans or that anyone should apologise for offending them though
Wasn't it part of Ian Drury's originality and appeal that he rendered his rock in the local vernacular?
'My given name is Dickie And I come from Billericay.'
A deathless couplet, if ever there was one.
I think Punk/New Wave in general was about singing in your own voice etc
I think a better UKIP song would be this, which I cant stop listening to and was one of my earliest TOTP memories
Isn't there a bit of a fake Caribbean accent in "Dreadlock Holiday" by 10CC?
Alot of UB40's stuff is in cod jamaican accents. However, that is obviously ok as they're left wing. Therefore their cultural appropriation is entirely valid, and no doubt their many afro-Caribbean friends are far more genuine than Mike Reid's 'chums', who are no doubt unaware they are friends with such a reactionary supporter of the white patriarchy. [/sarcasm]
I wish the press had attacked this for it's God-awfulness (which would have been true) -I can just tell that cynically attacking it for 'racism' is going to end up making me sign up to Mike Read's barmy army and support this song.
I've heard that those "opposed" to the UKIP song are encouraging people to buy this instead. Apparently Mike Read wanted to ban it from the radio, or something. I'm sure some people would have preferred something more contemporary.
Incidentally do the Twitter brigade who have got agitated about Mike Reid also get agitated when other nationalities fake an English accent? Do they condemn Mary Poppins because of Dick Van Dyke's awful cockney accent?
Please don't get me started on that. Or Kevin Costner as Robin Hood
Remember Russell Crowd's accent(s) in Robin Hood?
You come from that part of the World, TSE; were you as outraged as Mark Lawson?
It's offensive against music. In terms of being specifically offensive to the afro-Caribbean diaspora (more than anyone else with ears), doesn't one always sing Calypso in that accent? As far as I was aware it was like pop music in an American accent and Opera in Italian.
Yup. For example...
Funny enough it bugs me quite a lot when English singers adopt an American accent to sing rather than use their normal voice.. but when I said this to a musician mate he said if they didn't do that every song sounds like a Paul Weller impression.. if you're from the SE
I don't think its taking the mick out of Americans or that anyone should apologise for offending them though
Wasn't it part of Ian Drury's originality and appeal that he rendered his rock in the local vernacular?
'My given name is Dickie And I come from Billericay.'
"I have now consulted two of Britain’s leading experts on election law, both of whom have been involved in high profile cases. Neither wanted to be named but both believe that the primary process could open the Conservative contender to an election petition in the event of them winning."
"could open". Could. Could. Running in a marathon could give you a heart attack, too.
The extra legal bit not mentioned in the link is... Section 90ZA (3) : “for the purposes of the candidate's election” means with a view to, or otherwise in connection with, promoting or procuring the candidate's election at the election.
If the primary is just the initial stage, and not considered part of getting the candidate elected, then presumably that's ok. (But I am not a lawyer.)
How is pitching your position in an open meeting of the local electorate with the view to winning the candidacy not promoting or procuring the candidate's election? It was a primary open to everyone in the constituency and open to the local media who covered it online within minutes of it beginning and the eventual candidate pitched their campaign. It's effectively campaigning. If it had been a closed primary then they would have been free and clear but it wasn't.
Incidentally do the Twitter brigade who have got agitated about Mike Reid also get agitated when other nationalities fake an English accent? Do they condemn Mary Poppins because of Dick Van Dyke's awful cockney accent?
Please don't get me started on that. Or Kevin Costner as Robin Hood
Remember Russell Crowd's accent(s) in Robin Hood?
You come from that part of the World, TSE; were you as outraged as Mark Lawson?
I didn't mind Mr Crowe's that much,
Prince of Thieves irked me on so many levels and that's not including Bryan Adam's song
"I have now consulted two of Britain’s leading experts on election law, both of whom have been involved in high profile cases. Neither wanted to be named but both believe that the primary process could open the Conservative contender to an election petition in the event of them winning."
"could open". Could. Could. Running in a marathon could give you a heart attack, too.
The extra legal bit not mentioned in the link is... Section 90ZA (3) : “for the purposes of the candidate's election” means with a view to, or otherwise in connection with, promoting or procuring the candidate's election at the election.
If the primary is just the initial stage, and not considered part of getting the candidate elected, then presumably that's ok. (But I am not a lawyer.)
How is pitching your position in an open meeting of the local electorate with the view to winning the candidacy not promoting or procuring the candidate's election? It was a primary open to everyone in the constituency and open to the local media who covered it online within minutes of it beginning and the eventual candidate pitched their campaign. It's effectively campaigning. If it had been a closed primary then they would have been free and clear but it wasn't.
By that argument, Reckless' appearance at the UKIP conference should also be counted as election expenses.
In response to Quincel who said this: "Also, the harm the widow feels if she moves should be weighed up against the harm the graduate feels when they discover they will never own property in the entire city they grew up in. The property market doesn't allow us an option where no-one is harmed, we missed that chance."
I think we ought to be doing something about the fact that there are so few affordable houses. Giving governments a financial interest in houses being ludicrously expensive because of shortages (as this tax does) is not it.
But I don't think it's some sort of human right to buy a house the moment you leave university. And, if we're weighing up relative harms, I do think that we ought to place quite a lot of weight on the harm done to the elderly. I have never been able to afford a house in the area I grew up in. It is stretching the meaning of words to say that it has caused me "harm". Whereas old people moved from their homes e.g out of care homes where they have lived for a long time do suffer harm and there is evidence of that.
But on your general point re the lack of affordable homes in our capital I'm with you. Far more ought to be done. But this tax is not the answer and does not even pretend to be the answer. The money raised is not even going to be spent on building more homes.
WRT name-dropping, I organised a variety of functions and had dinner/lunch with Michael Howard, Ann Widdecombe, Louise Mensch, Nadine Dorries, Lord Salisbury, David Trimble, Frederick Forsyth, Sir Ivan Lawrence, Frank Field, Kate Hoey, Jeffrey Donaldson, Michael Mates, and Iain Duncan-Smith.
All of them were interesting and good company.
Louise Mensch doesn't count. She used to slum it around here.
On that basis we could all claim Yvette Cooper and Lord Monckton. (Not that we would want to, much.)
We could only claim them if we knew the names they posted under. And somehow I don't think you're going to tell. Even if I ask really nicely...
Incidentally do the Twitter brigade who have got agitated about Mike Reid also get agitated when other nationalities fake an English accent? Do they condemn Mary Poppins because of Dick Van Dyke's awful cockney accent?
Please don't get me started on that. Or Kevin Costner as Robin Hood
Remember Russell Crowd's accent(s) in Robin Hood?
You come from that part of the World, TSE; were you as outraged as Mark Lawson?
I didn't mind Mr Crowe's that much,
Prince of Thieves irked me on so many levels and that's not including Bryan Adam's song
In response to Quincel who said this: "Also, the harm the widow feels if she moves should be weighed up against the harm the graduate feels when they discover they will never own property in the entire city they grew up in. The property market doesn't allow us an option where no-one is harmed, we missed that chance."
I think we ought to be doing something about the fact that there are so few affordable houses. Giving governments a financial interest in houses being ludicrously expensive because of shortages (as this tax does) is not it.
But I don't think it's some sort of human right to buy a house the moment you leave university. And, if we're weighing up relative harms, I do think that we ought to place quite a lot of weight on the harm done to the elderly. I have never been able to afford a house in the area I grew up in. It is stretching the meaning of words to say that it has caused me "harm". Whereas old people moved from their homes e.g out of care homes where they have lived for a long time do suffer harm and there is evidence of that.
But on your general point re the lack of affordable homes in our capital I'm with you. Far more ought to be done. But this tax is not the answer and does not even pretend to be the answer. The money raised is not even going to be spent on building more homes.
I do dislike the term 'affordable homes'
If you build enough decent homes (not miniature hovels) the 'better' homes become more affordable.
Incidentally do the Twitter brigade who have got agitated about Mike Reid also get agitated when other nationalities fake an English accent? Do they condemn Mary Poppins because of Dick Van Dyke's awful cockney accent?
Please don't get me started on that. Or Kevin Costner as Robin Hood
Remember Russell Crowd's accent(s) in Robin Hood?
You come from that part of the World, TSE; were you as outraged as Mark Lawson?
I didn't mind Mr Crowe's that much,
Prince of Thieves irked me on so many levels and that's not including Bryan Adam's son
That song was the first single I ever bought (sorry).
Incidentally do the Twitter brigade who have got agitated about Mike Reid also get agitated when other nationalities fake an English accent? Do they condemn Mary Poppins because of Dick Van Dyke's awful cockney accent?
Please don't get me started on that. Or Kevin Costner as Robin Hood
Remember Russell Crowd's accent(s) in Robin Hood?
You come from that part of the World, TSE; were you as outraged as Mark Lawson?
I didn't mind Mr Crowe's that much,
Prince of Thieves irked me on so many levels and that's not including Bryan Adam's song
WRT name-dropping, I organised a variety of functions and had dinner/lunch with Michael Howard, Ann Widdecombe, Louise Mensch, Nadine Dorries, Lord Salisbury, David Trimble, Frederick Forsyth, Sir Ivan Lawrence, Frank Field, Kate Hoey, Jeffrey Donaldson, Michael Mates, and Iain Duncan-Smith.
All of them were interesting and good company.
Louise Mensch doesn't count. She used to slum it around here.
On that basis we could all claim Yvette Cooper and Lord Monckton. (Not that we would want to, much.)
We could only claim them if we knew the names they posted under. And somehow I don't think you're going to tell. Even if I ask really nicely...
Can we guess? 'll give a starter
Yvette was Tim Louise was Avery LP Lord Monkton is Jack W
"I have now consulted two of Britain’s leading experts on election law, both of whom have been involved in high profile cases. Neither wanted to be named but both believe that the primary process could open the Conservative contender to an election petition in the event of them winning."
"could open". Could. Could. Running in a marathon could give you a heart attack, too.
The extra legal bit not mentioned in the link is... Section 90ZA (3) : “for the purposes of the candidate's election” means with a view to, or otherwise in connection with, promoting or procuring the candidate's election at the election.
If the primary is just the initial stage, and not considered part of getting the candidate elected, then presumably that's ok. (But I am not a lawyer.)
How is pitching your position in an open meeting of the local electorate with the view to winning the candidacy not promoting or procuring the candidate's election? It was a primary open to everyone in the constituency and open to the local media who covered it online within minutes of it beginning and the eventual candidate pitched their campaign. It's effectively campaigning. If it had been a closed primary then they would have been free and clear but it wasn't.
By that argument, Reckless' appearance at the UKIP conference should also be counted as election expenses.
I'll give you the chance to take that back if you like
Incidentally do the Twitter brigade who have got agitated about Mike Reid also get agitated when other nationalities fake an English accent? Do they condemn Mary Poppins because of Dick Van Dyke's awful cockney accent?
Please don't get me started on that. Or Kevin Costner as Robin Hood
Remember Russell Crowd's accent(s) in Robin Hood?
You come from that part of the World, TSE; were you as outraged as Mark Lawson?
I didn't mind Mr Crowe's that much,
Prince of Thieves irked me on so many levels and that's not including Bryan Adam's son
That song was the first single I ever bought (sorry).
Don't apologise. I did too. I've seen Mr Adams live.
Just hearing it all the time in 1991 made me want to take hostages.
WRT name-dropping, I organised a variety of functions and had dinner/lunch with Michael Howard, Ann Widdecombe, Louise Mensch, Nadine Dorries, Lord Salisbury, David Trimble, Frederick Forsyth, Sir Ivan Lawrence, Frank Field, Kate Hoey, Jeffrey Donaldson, Michael Mates, and Iain Duncan-Smith.
All of them were interesting and good company.
Louise Mensch doesn't count. She used to slum it around here.
On that basis we could all claim Yvette Cooper and Lord Monckton. (Not that we would want to, much.)
We could only claim them if we knew the names they posted under. And somehow I don't think you're going to tell. Even if I ask really nicely...
Whether it's in accordance with the law or not, UKIP challenging the Conservatives holding a primary in Rochester would be a presentational disaster. They'd look anti-democratic and terrible losers.
"... on your general point re the lack of affordable homes in our capital I'm with you. ..."
If you mean reasonable homes that a young couple on normal wages can afford to buy, then that is never going to happen. Not in London and, it would increasingly seem, not in the South East. There is an ever increasing number of people chasing a limited supply.
Of the tens of thousands of homes being built on green field sites in the South East only a small proportion are aimed at the first time buyer and, at least round here, they are already out of reach of a young couple starting out who don't have a big helping hand from Mum and Dad. The rest seemed to be geared to people moving out of London.
Incidentally do the Twitter brigade who have got agitated about Mike Reid also get agitated when other nationalities fake an English accent? Do they condemn Mary Poppins because of Dick Van Dyke's awful cockney accent?
Please don't get me started on that. Or Kevin Costner as Robin Hood
Remember Russell Crowd's accent(s) in Robin Hood?
You come from that part of the World, TSE; were you as outraged as Mark Lawson?
I didn't mind Mr Crowe's that much,
Prince of Thieves irked me on so many levels and that's not including Bryan Adam's song
And Coeur de Lion should have been around 38. Not in his sixties.
And he should not have been able to speak English. The real one couldn't; he hated the place and only spent about six months here in his entire life. Why there is a statue of him outside Parliament I have never understood.
Indeed we are, which is going to make it the most interesting and potentially profitable general election for decades. It should also make this site a unique resource and obligatory reading for anyone interested in turning a few quid, providing we can perhaps dial back on the tribal posts.
Betting advice is not always well received, and certainly doesn't cross partisan lines
Last year I suggested that taking 11/10 about UKIP to outpoll the Tories in the Euros was a fantastic bet, especially considering the y were 2/1 to win the whole kaboodle and the Tories were 10/1...
All I got was a load of people telling me the 10/1 was the bet and a lawyer telling me that I didn't know how to price up match bets, despite having done so for a living for 10 years
"... on your general point re the lack of affordable homes in our capital I'm with you. ..."
If you mean reasonable homes that a young couple on normal wages can afford to buy, then that is never going to happen. Not in London and, it would increasingly seem, not in the South East. There is an ever increasing number of people chasing a limited supply.
Of the tens of thousands of homes being built on green field sites in the South East only a small proportion are aimed at the first time buyer and, at least round here, they are already out of reach of a young couple starting out who don't have a big helping hand from Mum and Dad. The rest seemed to be geared to people moving out of London.
"I have now consulted two of Britain’s leading experts on election law, both of whom have been involved in high profile cases. Neither wanted to be named but both believe that the primary process could open the Conservative contender to an election petition in the event of them winning."
"could open". Could. Could. Running in a marathon could give you a heart attack, too.
The extra legal bit not mentioned in the link is... Section 90ZA (3) : “for the purposes of the candidate's election” means with a view to, or otherwise in connection with, promoting or procuring the candidate's election at the election.
If the primary is just the initial stage, and not considered part of getting the candidate elected, then presumably that's ok. (But I am not a lawyer.)
How is pitching your position in an open meeting of the local electorate with the view to winning the candidacy not promoting or procuring the candidate's election? It was a primary open to everyone in the constituency and open to the local media who covered it online within minutes of it beginning and the eventual candidate pitched their campaign. It's effectively campaigning. If it had been a closed primary then they would have been free and clear but it wasn't.
By that argument, Reckless' appearance at the UKIP conference should also be counted as election expenses.
Reckless was still an MP at that point. He hadn't resigned. Until he resigned there was no election to be campaigned for.
"I have now consulted two of Britain’s leading experts on election law, both of whom have been involved in high profile cases. Neither wanted to be named but both believe that the primary process could open the Conservative contender to an election petition in the event of them winning."
"could open". Could. Could. Running in a marathon could give you a heart attack, too.
The extra legal bit not mentioned in the link is... Section 90ZA (3) : “for the purposes of the candidate's election” means with a view to, or otherwise in connection with, promoting or procuring the candidate's election at the election.
If the primary is just the initial stage, and not considered part of getting the candidate elected, then presumably that's ok. (But I am not a lawyer.)
How is pitching your position in an open meeting of the local electorate with the view to winning the candidacy not promoting or procuring the candidate's election? It was a primary open to everyone in the constituency and open to the local media who covered it online within minutes of it beginning and the eventual candidate pitched their campaign. It's effectively campaigning. If it had been a closed primary then they would have been free and clear but it wasn't.
By that argument, Reckless' appearance at the UKIP conference should also be counted as election expenses.
Reckless was still an MP at that point. He hadn't resigned. Until he resigned there was no election to be campaigned for.
Reckless set out his reasons for wanting to be a UKIP MP, he was campaigning for an election that he was causing. According to UKIP claims, such expenses should apply even if he only later become a candidate at the election.
Either you have the cut-off at when you become a candidate or you don't.
"I have now consulted two of Britain’s leading experts on election law, both of whom have been involved in high profile cases. Neither wanted to be named but both believe that the primary process could open the Conservative contender to an election petition in the event of them winning."
"could open". Could. Could. Running in a marathon could give you a heart attack, too.
The extra legal bit not mentioned in the link is... Section 90ZA (3) : “for the purposes of the candidate's election” means with a view to, or otherwise in connection with, promoting or procuring the candidate's election at the election.
If the primary is just the initial stage, and not considered part of getting the candidate elected, then presumably that's ok. (But I am not a lawyer.)
How is pitching your position in an open meeting of the local electorate with the view to winning the candidacy not promoting or procuring the candidate's election? It was a primary open to everyone in the constituency and open to the local media who covered it online within minutes of it beginning and the eventual candidate pitched their campaign. It's effectively campaigning. If it had been a closed primary then they would have been free and clear but it wasn't.
By that argument, Reckless' appearance at the UKIP conference should also be counted as election expenses.
Reckless was still an MP at that point. He hadn't resigned. Until he resigned there was no election to be campaigned for.
Labour can attack the successful Tory candidate on that basis, if they really think that's a good idea.
"... on your general point re the lack of affordable homes in our capital I'm with you. ..."
If you mean reasonable homes that a young couple on normal wages can afford to buy, then that is never going to happen. Not in London and, it would increasingly seem, not in the South East. There is an ever increasing number of people chasing a limited supply.
Of the tens of thousands of homes being built on green field sites in the South East only a small proportion are aimed at the first time buyer and, at least round here, they are already out of reach of a young couple starting out who don't have a big helping hand from Mum and Dad. The rest seemed to be geared to people moving out of London.
How depressing. How long can this go on?
Trickle up is the new economic philosophy.
As the 20th century saw home ownership rise from 10% to 70% its possible that the 21st century will see the process reverse entirely.
Well we will see. I am yet to be convinced. There is more to accuracy than sample size. Getting a truly representative sample at constituency size would be impressive and I still think that they will need to be offset against any change in the national polls. But, just maybe, Mike is right and this is the brave new world.
"I have now consulted two of Britain’s leading experts on election law, both of whom have been involved in high profile cases. Neither wanted to be named but both believe that the primary process could open the Conservative contender to an election petition in the event of them winning."
"could open". Could. Could. Running in a marathon could give you a heart attack, too.
The extra legal bit not mentioned in the link is... Section 90ZA (3) : “for the purposes of the candidate's election” means with a view to, or otherwise in connection with, promoting or procuring the candidate's election at the election.
If the primary is just the initial stage, and not considered part of getting the candidate elected, then presumably that's ok. (But I am not a lawyer.)
How is pitching your position in an open meeting of the local electorate with the view to winning the candidacy not promoting or procuring the candidate's election? It was a primary open to everyone in the constituency and open to the local media who covered it online within minutes of it beginning and the eventual candidate pitched their campaign. It's effectively campaigning. If it had been a closed primary then they would have been free and clear but it wasn't.
By that argument, Reckless' appearance at the UKIP conference should also be counted as election expenses.
Reckless was still an MP at that point. He hadn't resigned. Until he resigned there was no election to be campaigned for.
Reckless set out his reasons for wanting to be a UKIP MP, he was campaigning for an election that he was causing. According to UKIP claims, such expenses should apply even if he only later become a candidate at the election.
Either you have the cut-off at when you become a candidate or you don't.
Honestly, this is one of the worst arguments I have ever read on here
Reckless was speaking in Doncaster to people who aren't eligible to vote in Rochester for a start
"... on your general point re the lack of affordable homes in our capital I'm with you. ..."
If you mean reasonable homes that a young couple on normal wages can afford to buy, then that is never going to happen. Not in London and, it would increasingly seem, not in the South East. There is an ever increasing number of people chasing a limited supply.
Of the tens of thousands of homes being built on green field sites in the South East only a small proportion are aimed at the first time buyer and, at least round here, they are already out of reach of a young couple starting out who don't have a big helping hand from Mum and Dad. The rest seemed to be geared to people moving out of London.
How depressing. How long can this go on?
God knows. The property crash of a few years ago wasn't allowed to do the job (it needed a fall of about 50% to get back to long term trend), probably because the banks would have gone under and because the politicians were too frightened. The politicians are still in love with allowing the population to grow faster than the countries infrastructure can cope. The South East is still sucking in more people because it is where the money is to be made.
Whether it's in accordance with the law or not, UKIP challenging the Conservatives holding a primary in Rochester would be a presentational disaster. They'd look anti-democratic and terrible losers.
What they'd challenge would be the spending - "Tories buying the election" etc. It's obvious that it's a device to make the potential candidates known to voters: Few non-Tories would feel that it was a wonderful exercise in democracy.
"I have now consulted two of Britain’s leading experts on election law, both of whom have been involved in high profile cases. Neither wanted to be named but both believe that the primary process could open the Conservative contender to an election petition in the event of them winning."
"could open". Could. Could. Running in a marathon could give you a heart attack, too.
The extra legal bit not mentioned in the link is... Section 90ZA (3) : “for the purposes of the candidate's election” means with a view to, or otherwise in connection with, promoting or procuring the candidate's election at the election.
If the primary is just the initial stage, and not considered part of getting the candidate elected, then presumably that's ok. (But I am not a lawyer.)
How is pitching your position in an open meeting of the local electorate with the view to winning the candidacy not promoting or procuring the candidate's election? It was a primary open to everyone in the constituency and open to the local media who covered it online within minutes of it beginning and the eventual candidate pitched their campaign. It's effectively campaigning. If it had been a closed primary then they would have been free and clear but it wasn't.
By that argument, Reckless' appearance at the UKIP conference should also be counted as election expenses.
Reckless was still an MP at that point. He hadn't resigned. Until he resigned there was no election to be campaigned for.
Reckless set out his reasons for wanting to be a UKIP MP, he was campaigning for an election that he was causing. According to UKIP claims, such expenses should apply even if he only later become a candidate at the election.
Either you have the cut-off at when you become a candidate or you don't.
Honestly, this is one of the worst arguments I have ever read on here
Reckless was speaking in Doncaster to people who aren't eligible to vote in Rochester for a start
"... on your general point re the lack of affordable homes in our capital I'm with you. ..."
If you mean reasonable homes that a young couple on normal wages can afford to buy, then that is never going to happen. Not in London and, it would increasingly seem, not in the South East. There is an ever increasing number of people chasing a limited supply.
Of the tens of thousands of homes being built on green field sites in the South East only a small proportion are aimed at the first time buyer and, at least round here, they are already out of reach of a young couple starting out who don't have a big helping hand from Mum and Dad. The rest seemed to be geared to people moving out of London.
How depressing. How long can this go on?
Trickle up is the new economic philosophy.
As the 20th century saw home ownership rise from 10% to 70% its possible that the 21st century will see the process reverse entirely.
There is a big stink about to kick off about new homes being sold/rented to London overspill in Hornchurch and Upminster, and I think it could be what wins it for UKIP
Boris ignored petitions pleading not to build over Harold Wood Hospital Labour want to build on the fields around the constituency Both want to ship social housing claimants out of newly gentrified areas of Zones 1 & 2 and into Zone 6
"I have now consulted two of Britain’s leading experts on election law, both of whom have been involved in high profile cases. Neither wanted to be named but both believe that the primary process could open the Conservative contender to an election petition in the event of them winning."
"could open". Could. Could. Running in a marathon could give you a heart attack, too.
The extra legal bit not mentioned in the link is... Section 90ZA (3) : “for the purposes of the candidate's election” means with a view to, or otherwise in connection with, promoting or procuring the candidate's election at the election.
If the primary is just the initial stage, and not considered part of getting the candidate elected, then presumably that's ok. (But I am not a lawyer.)
How is pitching your position in an open meeting of the local electorate with the view to winning the candidacy not promoting or procuring the candidate's election? It was a primary open to everyone in the constituency and open to the local media who covered it online within minutes of it beginning and the eventual candidate pitched their campaign. It's effectively campaigning. If it had been a closed primary then they would have been free and clear but it wasn't.
By that argument, Reckless' appearance at the UKIP conference should also be counted as election expenses.
Reckless was still an MP at that point. He hadn't resigned. Until he resigned there was no election to be campaigned for.
Reckless set out his reasons for wanting to be a UKIP MP, he was campaigning for an election that he was causing. According to UKIP claims, such expenses should apply even if he only later become a candidate at the election.
Either you have the cut-off at when you become a candidate or you don't.
Honestly, this is one of the worst arguments I have ever read on here
Reckless was speaking in Doncaster to people who aren't eligible to vote in Rochester for a start
He was on a national stage, with timing chosen to maximize publicity for his reasons for wanting to be a UKIP MP.
"I have now consulted two of Britain’s leading experts on election law, both of whom have been involved in high profile cases. Neither wanted to be named but both believe that the primary process could open the Conservative contender to an election petition in the event of them winning."
"could open". Could. Could. Running in a marathon could give you a heart attack, too.
The extra legal bit not mentioned in the link is... Section 90ZA (3) : “for the purposes of the candidate's election” means with a view to, or otherwise in connection with, promoting or procuring the candidate's election at the election.
If the primary is just the initial stage, and not considered part of getting the candidate elected, then presumably that's ok. (But I am not a lawyer.)
How is pitching your position in an open meeting of the local electorate with the view to winning the candidacy not promoting or procuring the candidate's election? It was a primary open to everyone in the constituency and open to the local media who covered it online within minutes of it beginning and the eventual candidate pitched their campaign. It's effectively campaigning. If it had been a closed primary then they would have been free and clear but it wasn't.
By that argument, Reckless' appearance at the UKIP conference should also be counted as election expenses.
Reckless was still an MP at that point. He hadn't resigned. Until he resigned there was no election to be campaigned for.
Reckless set out his reasons for wanting to be a UKIP MP, he was campaigning for an election that he was causing. According to UKIP claims, such expenses should apply even if he only later become a candidate at the election.
Either you have the cut-off at when you become a candidate or you don't.
Lord Ashcroft spent a lot of money promoting Conservative candidates in their constituencies well before the election campaign started in 2014. No legal challenges.
The campaign has started in Rochester and Strood and the Tories have already posted four pieces to all the electorate there. At least half should be declared as expenses by the winning candidate.
Carswell winning forced the Tories to move the writ thus messing up their scheme.
"... on your general point re the lack of affordable homes in our capital I'm with you. ..."
If you mean reasonable homes that a young couple on normal wages can afford to buy, then that is never going to happen. Not in London and, it would increasingly seem, not in the South East. There is an ever increasing number of people chasing a limited supply.
Of the tens of thousands of homes being built on green field sites in the South East only a small proportion are aimed at the first time buyer and, at least round here, they are already out of reach of a young couple starting out who don't have a big helping hand from Mum and Dad. The rest seemed to be geared to people moving out of London.
How depressing. How long can this go on?
I suspect longer than we think. Markets don't stop when they begin creating outcomes we don't like. And we tend to intervene later than we should (presuming we think we should).
For what it's worth, and since I've been a bit touchy on this issue, here's what I believe about housing:
I don't think it is a human right to buy property upon graduating or shortly after, but I do think financial security and the power to broadly govern your own life that it brings is. Since renters have so little protection I believe you cannot be genuinely financially secure in the UK unless you own property or have the wealth that you could do so (ie if you actively choose to rent). I also believe that it is a human right to have the same opportunity the previous generation did unless there are circumstances beyond our control. At the moment an entire generation of young people simply do not have nearly as good opportunities as their parents: and a housing bubble is not an act of God we can do nothing about. I don't consider it acceptable for someone's life chances to be constrained by where they are born, or who their parents are. I don't see any meaningful different if it is dictated by which generation they are born into.
Like I said, that isn't meant to be a rebuttal to your post. Have a good night, Cycle.
Whether it's in accordance with the law or not, UKIP challenging the Conservatives holding a primary in Rochester would be a presentational disaster. They'd look anti-democratic and terrible losers.
Dead right which is why they won't do it. Also they know that if they start an election expenses war they'll end up the losers.
At an election I was inolved in we thought that we had "got" or opponent & we excitedly took it up with our party HQ. The response: we'll set that against claims against us when one of our people has messed up. There was no desire to take on the other party although the case was clear cut.
"... on your general point re the lack of affordable homes in our capital I'm with you. ..."
If you mean reasonable homes that a young couple on normal wages can afford to buy, then that is never going to happen. Not in London and, it would increasingly seem, not in the South East. There is an ever increasing number of people chasing a limited supply.
Of the tens of thousands of homes being built on green field sites in the South East only a small proportion are aimed at the first time buyer and, at least round here, they are already out of reach of a young couple starting out who don't have a big helping hand from Mum and Dad. The rest seemed to be geared to people moving out of London.
How depressing. How long can this go on?
Trickle up is the new economic philosophy.
As the 20th century saw home ownership rise from 10% to 70% its possible that the 21st century will see the process reverse entirely.
I doubt it will reverse entirely, but the proportion of owner occupiers will surely decrease significantly. What is crazy is that private rents are often higher than the tenants would pay on a mortgage on a similar property were they able to get a deposit together to buy.
Whether it's in accordance with the law or not, UKIP challenging the Conservatives holding a primary in Rochester would be a presentational disaster. They'd look anti-democratic and terrible losers.
What they'd challenge would be the spending - "Tories buying the election" etc. It's obvious that it's a device to make the potential candidates known to voters: Few non-Tories would feel that it was a wonderful exercise in democracy.
According to the logic on here, every penny spent on your behalf in Broxtowe in the last four and a bit years counts towards your election expenses. Tosh.
And just about every penny Reckless has spent in his constituency since 2010. Equal tosh.
Whether it's in accordance with the law or not, UKIP challenging the Conservatives holding a primary in Rochester would be a presentational disaster. They'd look anti-democratic and terrible losers.
Dead right which is why they won't do it. Also they know that if they start an election expenses war they'll end up the losers.
At an election I was inolved in we thought that we had "got" or opponent & we excitedly took it up with our party HQ. The response: we'll set that against claims against us when one of our people has messed up. There was no desire to take on the other party although the case was clear cut.
The timing doesn't work either. The case would be unlikely to be heard before the general election, by which point the case would be moot. Why draw continuing attention to a defeat for no gain?
Whether it's in accordance with the law or not, UKIP challenging the Conservatives holding a primary in Rochester would be a presentational disaster. They'd look anti-democratic and terrible losers.
What they'd challenge would be the spending - "Tories buying the election" etc. It's obvious that it's a device to make the potential candidates known to voters: Few non-Tories would feel that it was a wonderful exercise in democracy.
According to the logic on here, every penny spent on your behalf in Broxtowe in the last four and a bit years counts towards your election expenses. Tosh.
And just about every penny Reckless has spent in his constituency since 2010. Equal tosh.
Since the by-election writ however...
Can you point out where someone said all money since 2010 should count towards this by-election?
"I have now consulted two of Britain’s leading experts on election law, both of whom have been involved in high profile cases. Neither wanted to be named but both believe that the primary process could open the Conservative contender to an election petition in the event of them winning."
"could open". Could. Could. Running in a marathon could give you a heart attack, too.
The extra legal bit not mentioned in the link is... Section 90ZA (3) : “for the purposes of the candidate's election” means with a view to, or otherwise in connection with, promoting or procuring the candidate's election at the election.
If the primary is just the initial stage, and not considered part of getting the candidate elected, then presumably that's ok. (But I am not a lawyer.)
How is pitching your position in an open meeting of the local electorate with the view to winning the candidacy not promoting or procuring the candidate's election? It was a primary open to everyone in the constituency and open to the local media who covered it online within minutes of it beginning and the eventual candidate pitched their campaign. It's effectively campaigning. If it had been a closed primary then they would have been free and clear but it wasn't.
By that argument, Reckless' appearance at the UKIP conference should also be counted as election expenses.
Reckless was still an MP at that point. He hadn't resigned. Until he resigned there was no election to be campaigned for.
Reckless set out his reasons for wanting to be a UKIP MP, he was campaigning for an election that he was causing. According to UKIP claims, such expenses should apply even if he only later become a candidate at the election.
Either you have the cut-off at when you become a candidate or you don't.
Honestly, this is one of the worst arguments I have ever read on here
Reckless was speaking in Doncaster to people who aren't eligible to vote in Rochester for a start
He was on a national stage, with timing chosen to maximize publicity for his reasons for wanting to be a UKIP MP.
Whether it's in accordance with the law or not, UKIP challenging the Conservatives holding a primary in Rochester would be a presentational disaster. They'd look anti-democratic and terrible losers.
Dead right which is why they won't do it. Also they know that if they start an election expenses war they'll end up the losers.
At an election I was inolved in we thought that we had "got" or opponent & we excitedly took it up with our party HQ. The response: we'll set that against claims against us when one of our people has messed up. There was no desire to take on the other party although the case was clear cut.
Rightly or wrongly, I don't think they will just drop it
"I have now consulted two of Britain’s leading experts on election law, both of whom have been involved in high profile cases. Neither wanted to be named but both believe that the primary process could open the Conservative contender to an election petition in the event of them winning."
"could open". Could. Could. Running in a marathon could give you a heart attack, too.
The extra legal bit not mentioned in the link is... Section 90ZA (3) : “for the purposes of the candidate's election” means with a view to, or otherwise in connection with, promoting or procuring the candidate's election at the election.
If the primary is just the initial stage, and not considered part of getting the candidate elected, then presumably that's ok. (But I am not a lawyer.)
How is pitching your position in an open meeting of the local electorate with the view to winning the candidacy not promoting or procuring the candidate's election? It was a primary open to everyone in the constituency and open to the local media who covered it online within minutes of it beginning and the eventual candidate pitched their campaign. It's effectively campaigning. If it had been a closed primary then they would have been free and clear but it wasn't.
By that argument, Reckless' appearance at the UKIP conference should also be counted as election expenses.
Reckless was still an MP at that point. He hadn't resigned. Until he resigned there was no election to be campaigned for.
Reckless set out his reasons for wanting to be a UKIP MP, he was campaigning for an election that he was causing. According to UKIP claims, such expenses should apply even if he only later become a candidate at the election.
Either you have the cut-off at when you become a candidate or you don't.
Honestly, this is one of the worst arguments I have ever read on here
Reckless was speaking in Doncaster to people who aren't eligible to vote in Rochester for a start
He was on a national stage, with timing chosen to maximize publicity for his reasons for wanting to be a UKIP MP.
There will be no complaints by UKIP because there's an unwritten practice that parties don't bring these actions against each other. If UKIP, with its very limited HQ resource, was to break that it would end up being the loser.
"... on your general point re the lack of affordable homes in our capital I'm with you. ..."
If you mean reasonable homes that a young couple on normal wages can afford to buy, then that is never going to happen. Not in London and, it would increasingly seem, not in the South East. There is an ever increasing number of people chasing a limited supply.
Of the tens of thousands of homes being built on green field sites in the South East only a small proportion are aimed at the first time buyer and, at least round here, they are already out of reach of a young couple starting out who don't have a big helping hand from Mum and Dad. The rest seemed to be geared to people moving out of London.
How depressing. How long can this go on?
I suspect longer than we think. Markets don't stop when they begin creating outcomes we don't like. And we tend to intervene later than we should (presuming we think we should).
For what it's worth, and since I've been a bit touchy on this issue, here's what I believe about housing:
I don't think it is a human right to buy property upon graduating or shortly after, but I do think financial security and the power to broadly govern your own life that it brings is. Since renters have so little protection I believe you cannot be genuinely financially secure in the UK unless you own property or have the wealth that you could do so (ie if you actively choose to rent). I also believe that it is a human right to have the same opportunity the previous generation did unless there are circumstances beyond our control. At the moment an entire generation of young people simply do not have nearly as good opportunities as their parents: and a housing bubble is not an act of God we can do nothing about. I don't consider it acceptable for someone's life chances to be constrained by where they are born, or who their parents are. I don't see any meaningful different if it is dictated by which generation they are born into.
Like I said, that isn't meant to be a rebuttal to your post. Have a good night, Cycle.
Thank you for your thoughtful response. I wish house prices were much lower and stayed stable so that my children are able to have similar opportunities to their parents. Houses should be seen as homes not as vehicles for speculation.
None of the parties is addressing the housing issue and I think something will have to give eventually.
There will be no complaints by UKIP because there's an unwritten practice that parties don't bring these actions against each other. If UKIP, with its very limited HQ resource, was to break that it would end up being the loser.
They should remember the Winchester 1997 precedent.
The Tories lost that by 2 votes, then got whopped by 21,000 votes in the rerun
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If you provide a framework for people to plug a JavaScript-based model into, then they can introduce any factors they like into that model.
In effect, the user writes a short program ("method") that takes as input the constituency, and returns as output the prediction for that constituency. That method can call up any available data for the constituency that the user thinks is relevant, and weight it accordingly.
So, for example, the available data could include the geographical location of each constituency (let's say a simple centre point, to make the calculations easier). You could then add a line in your method to say ""if the constituency location is on or near the East Coast, increase the UKIP vote by n%".
But if I spend time working on this rather than stuff that actually pays the mortgage, Mrs Capitano will kill me. Ah well.
I'm not going to play (much). However many years ago Princess Grace of Monaco was one of many high points.
This links to the Guardian's article.
" at the moment we borrow money from the Chinese in order to buy the things that the Chinese make for us "
In the fifth year of Osborne's Chancellorship the UK is running a £100bn+ government deficit and a £90bn+ balance of payments deficit.
This government's economic policy is Brownism on steroids.
The previous time he narrowly missed me cycling at a furious rate across Piccadilly and up Clarges Street I think.
This is only my second most embarassing needing a dump moment.
Think I will keep my worst one back for a bit, but somebody did get admitted to hospital and was diagnosed with a rib injury brought on by excessive laughing after I let them in on it.
I really think Labour would not want to be associated with a policy of harassing elderly widows out of their homes or driving them into the arms of City spivs in order to pay a tax expressly levied on the super rich. Not a Labour party that has made such a hoo ha over the bedroom tax and other wickednesses of this government.
The best way is to allow the tax to be paid on death or sale and there should not be a limit of £42k income for this - a level at which one is only a basic rate tax payer. Make the limit the point at which the top rate of tax cuts in or make it optional whether you want to rollover the tax until sale/death.
I agree with Bob-a-Job that £2mio buys you a very nice house indeed and it is absurd to pretend that this is the normal price for a normal family home, even in London. The two main problems with the tax IMO are that council tax bands at the top end i.e. above the current top limit of £320K are better and that it will not raise the amounts of money Labour are claiming and that, inevitably, it will be applied to more and more houses and will end up being a "terraced house tax".
There is a sensible debate to be had about the best and fairest way of taxing property but Labour are not having this debate just indulging in adolescent "let's take money from that group of horrible people - multimillionaires living in £10 mio houses (boo, hiss) and give it to these nice people here - the NHS (cheers)".
EDIT: Also, the harm the widow feels if she moves should be weighed up against the harm the graduate feels when they discover they will never own property in the entire city they grew up in. The property market doesn't allow us an option where no-one is harmed, we missed that chance.
Especially as you will probably find that having done all that hard work, all you can get on with Paddy Power is £1.50 at 6/4. Hardly beats working for a living. :-(
Last year I suggested that taking 11/10 about UKIP to outpoll the Tories in the Euros was a fantastic bet, especially considering the y were 2/1 to win the whole kaboodle and the Tories were 10/1...
All I got was a load of people telling me the 10/1 was the bet and a lawyer telling me that I didn't know how to price up match bets, despite having done so for a living for 10 years
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GNUHRZpWaVU
I am coming to the conclusion PB is not the place for me
No partisan punters, no easy pickings.
http://news.tes.co.uk/b/opinion/2014/10/21/nicky-morgan-i-want-to-build-a-new-deal-for-teacher-workload-and-i-need-your-help.aspx
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/oct/21/labour-teachers-break-workload
"I have now consulted two of Britain’s leading experts on election law, both of whom have been involved in high profile cases. Neither wanted to be named but both believe that the primary process could open the Conservative contender to an election petition in the event of them winning."
http://blogs.channel4.com/michael-crick-on-politics/lawyers-judges-overturn-tory-victory-rochester/4541#sthash.oJFpjJdx.dpuf
"...The primary process could open the Conservative contender to an election petition in the event of them winning."
So they're pretty safe then.
All of them were interesting and good company.
For the avoidance of doubt, or older readers, in my cricketing days I batted right-handed and bowled right-arm spin. Not very well, but for one side only.
Thanks for your offer on the previous thread, but I've got Marf's email address somewhere as we've dealt before. I find it irritating (a little bit anyway) that the link doesn't work for me.
I still have one free ticket for Sunday if anyone is interested inbox me.
I don't think its taking the mick out of Americans or that anyone should apologise for offending them though
I wish the press had attacked this for it's God-awfulness (which would have been true) -I can just tell that cynically attacking it for 'racism' is going to end up making me sign up to Mike Read's barmy army and support this song.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-1QdtGxgYk
'My given name is Dickie
And I come from Billericay.'
A deathless couplet, if ever there was one.
Rum and her Ribena'
A wonderful love song
The extra legal bit not mentioned in the link is...
Section 90ZA (3) : “for the purposes of the candidate's election” means with a view to, or otherwise in connection with, promoting or procuring the candidate's election at the election.
If the primary is just the initial stage, and not considered part of getting the candidate elected, then presumably that's ok. (But I am not a lawyer.)
Wicked beat - gangstar speak from a white guy Paul Simonon.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wqcizZebcaU
Damon Albarn & Lily Allen spring to mind. Both accused of being more 'Landahhn' than they really are. At the other end of the scale, the cut glass tones of the not unnattractive Sophie Ellis-Bextor.
On that basis we could all claim Yvette Cooper and Lord Monckton. (Not that we would want to, much.)
I think a better UKIP song would be this, which I cant stop listening to and was one of my earliest TOTP memories
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T7VE0lNLMVo
You come from that part of the World, TSE; were you as outraged as Mark Lawson?
"Christopher Robin is having a wank.
What are you doing says Tommy the Tank.
Peter Rabbit is at it as well.
And the pixies are singing in Dingley Dell;
"Fuck Off Noddy, you stupid prat,
Fuck off, Noddy, in your rotten hat."
Some of the best English lyrics ever written.
Prince of Thieves irked me on so many levels and that's not including Bryan Adam's song
Shortly afterwards, he had to retire from the BBC due to heart problems.
By that argument, Reckless' appearance at the UKIP conference should also be counted as election expenses.
I think we ought to be doing something about the fact that there are so few affordable houses. Giving governments a financial interest in houses being ludicrously expensive because of shortages (as this tax does) is not it.
But I don't think it's some sort of human right to buy a house the moment you leave university. And, if we're weighing up relative harms, I do think that we ought to place quite a lot of weight on the harm done to the elderly. I have never been able to afford a house in the area I grew up in. It is stretching the meaning of words to say that it has caused me "harm". Whereas old people moved from their homes e.g out of care homes where they have lived for a long time do suffer harm and there is evidence of that.
But on your general point re the lack of affordable homes in our capital I'm with you. Far more ought to be done. But this tax is not the answer and does not even pretend to be the answer. The money raised is not even going to be spent on building more homes.
http://www.theguardian.com/film/2009/jan/15/robin-hood-prince-of-thieves
If you build enough decent homes (not miniature hovels) the 'better' homes become more affordable.
And Coeur de Lion should have been around 38. Not in his sixties.
Yvette was Tim
Louise was Avery LP
Lord Monkton is Jack W
Just hearing it all the time in 1991 made me want to take hostages.
Have fun, Namedroppers. C u all tomorrow.
"... on your general point re the lack of affordable homes in our capital I'm with you. ..."
If you mean reasonable homes that a young couple on normal wages can afford to buy, then that is never going to happen. Not in London and, it would increasingly seem, not in the South East. There is an ever increasing number of people chasing a limited supply.
Of the tens of thousands of homes being built on green field sites in the South East only a small proportion are aimed at the first time buyer and, at least round here, they are already out of reach of a young couple starting out who don't have a big helping hand from Mum and Dad. The rest seemed to be geared to people moving out of London.
Have I missed another entertaining Times article from him ?
No partisan punters, no easy pickings.
We had a saying at the poker table that fits this
"don't tap on the fish tank"
Reckless set out his reasons for wanting to be a UKIP MP, he was campaigning for an election that he was causing. According to UKIP claims, such expenses should apply even if he only later become a candidate at the election.
Either you have the cut-off at when you become a candidate or you don't.
Better to take the precendent and use it.
As the 20th century saw home ownership rise from 10% to 70% its possible that the 21st century will see the process reverse entirely.
Reckless was speaking in Doncaster to people who aren't eligible to vote in Rochester for a start
Boris ignored petitions pleading not to build over Harold Wood Hospital
Labour want to build on the fields around the constituency
Both want to ship social housing claimants out of newly gentrified areas of Zones 1 & 2 and into Zone 6
There may be trouble ahead.....
He was on a national stage, with timing chosen to maximize publicity for his reasons for wanting to be a UKIP MP.
I think the people of Rochester noticed.
The campaign has started in Rochester and Strood and the Tories have already posted four pieces to all the electorate there. At least half should be declared as expenses by the winning candidate.
Carswell winning forced the Tories to move the writ thus messing up their scheme.
For what it's worth, and since I've been a bit touchy on this issue, here's what I believe about housing:
I don't think it is a human right to buy property upon graduating or shortly after, but I do think financial security and the power to broadly govern your own life that it brings is. Since renters have so little protection I believe you cannot be genuinely financially secure in the UK unless you own property or have the wealth that you could do so (ie if you actively choose to rent). I also believe that it is a human right to have the same opportunity the previous generation did unless there are circumstances beyond our control. At the moment an entire generation of young people simply do not have nearly as good opportunities as their parents: and a housing bubble is not an act of God we can do nothing about. I don't consider it acceptable for someone's life chances to be constrained by where they are born, or who their parents are. I don't see any meaningful different if it is dictated by which generation they are born into.
Like I said, that isn't meant to be a rebuttal to your post. Have a good night, Cycle.
At an election I was inolved in we thought that we had "got" or opponent & we excitedly took it up with our party HQ. The response: we'll set that against claims against us when one of our people has messed up. There was no desire to take on the other party although the case was clear cut.
And just about every penny Reckless has spent in his constituency since 2010. Equal tosh.
Since the by-election writ however...
Can you point out where someone said all money since 2010 should count towards this by-election?
Which part of it do you believe is rubbish?
None of the parties is addressing the housing issue and I think something will have to give eventually.
Good night.
The Tories lost that by 2 votes, then got whopped by 21,000 votes in the rerun