On topic, I’ve asked before why any party should run all-elector primaries. I don’t care very much who the Tory candidate is; I’m wildly unlikely to vote for him or her. Indeed, if I did bother to vote I’d probably vote for the least attractive candidate on the grounds that if they were the actual Parliamentary candidate it would give someone from the Left a better chance. If I were a Kipper in R&S I’d vote for the more liberal Tory on preceisely those grounds!
The obvious endgame here is that all the parties do a primary and the ERS or whoever do them all in one go. So each voter gets a single envelope, with a ballot for each party, but they're only allowed to return one.
Douglas Carswell advocated piggy-backing party primaries onto local elections. With political parties picking up the additional cost.
@taffys I keep forgetting that some on PB think "geography" is about Britain's former empire. If you lived in Bala, which hospital would you choose for major surgery, Cardiff, or Liverpool?
I'm surprised that this postal primary is legal. Sending ballots to everyone in the seat is tantamount to junk mail or spamming. Certainly I think there's a very strong case that it should be counted under election expenses, since it's advertising the party and the candidate. Hopefully once the lawyers have got their teeth into it, it'll be the last time it happens.
Good facts in that response BenM. As per normal the Daily Mail peddling crap
You may made the NHS the central plank of your offering. It's inevitable your performance in government is going to be scrutinised.
This is just the start.
Peddling inaccurate drivel in the Daily Mail isn't going to overturn people's well justified scepticism about the Tories competence in handling the NHS.
Since it was founded how many years has the NHS survived under:
1 Labour Administration 2 Conservative Administration 3 Coalition Administration
I think history shows it is able to survive and sometimes flourish under any administration.
There has never been a £30bn black hole in the history of the NHS until now.
So why is it so much worse in Wales than England ?
It isn't.
Why do Welsh people opt for treatment in England and not vice versa ?
Exodus of patients from English NHS to Wales increases by 12% in a year, as Wales residents shun English NHS numbers down by 9,000
"Ukip has struck a deal with a Polish MEP whose far-right party leader casually uses racial slurs and questions the Holocaust following fears that its grouping in Europe would lose millions of pounds in taxpayers’ funds."
Good facts in that response BenM. As per normal the Daily Mail peddling crap
You may made the NHS the central plank of your offering. It's inevitable your performance in government is going to be scrutinised.
This is just the start.
Peddling inaccurate drivel in the Daily Mail isn't going to overturn people's well justified scepticism about the Tories competence in handling the NHS.
Since it was founded how many years has the NHS survived under:
1 Labour Administration 2 Conservative Administration 3 Coalition Administration
I think history shows it is able to survive and sometimes flourish under any administration.
There has never been a £30bn black hole in the history of the NHS until now.
So why is it so much worse in Wales than England ?
It isn't.
Why do Welsh people opt for treatment in England and not vice versa ?
Exodus of patients from English NHS to Wales increases by 12% in a year, as Wales residents shun English NHS numbers down by 9,000
Ignore the Daily Mail FFS
Just remember Gordon Brown was sooo chummy with the editor of the Daily Mail.
Further reason to ignore Gordon Brown.
Gordon Brown, however, was smiled upon as no other politician had ever been. The two men developed a strange friendship, involving meals together and walks in the park, which one Mail columnist described to me as “the attraction of the two weirdest boys in the playground”. Brown, Dacre told Hagerty, was “touched by the mantle of greatness . . . he is a genuinely good man . . . a compassionate man . . . an original thinker . . . of enormous willpower and courage”.
At a Savoy Hotel event to celebrate Dacre’s first ten years as editor, Brown was almost equally effusive, describing the Mail editor as showing “great personal warmth and kindness . . . as well as great journalistic skill”.
“We tried to tell Dacre,” says a former Mail political reporter, “that Brown was not a very good chancellor and the economy would implode eventually. But frankly, Dacre has poor political judgement. They were united by a mutual hatred of Blair. Both are social conservatives; they’re both suspicious of foreigners; they both have a kind of Presbyterian morality. Dacre would say that Brown believes in work. It’s typical of him that he seizes on a single word as the key to his understanding of someone else.”
"Ukip has struck a deal with a Polish MEP whose far-right party leader casually uses racial slurs and questions the Holocaust following fears that its grouping in Europe would lose millions of pounds in taxpayers’ funds."
I linked to that in nighthawks.
What a lovely chap
In July, he declared in English that the minimum wage should be “destroyed” and said that “four million n*ggers” lost their jobs in the US as a result of President John F Kennedy signing a bill on the minimum wage in 1961.
He went on to claim that 20 million young Europeans were being treated as “negroes” as a result of the minimum wage. He refused to apologise and was fined 10 days of allowances for his comments.
On topic, I’ve asked before why any party should run all-elector primaries. I don’t care very much who the Tory candidate is; I’m wildly unlikely to vote for him or her. Indeed, if I did bother to vote I’d probably vote for the least attractive candidate on the grounds that if they were the actual Parliamentary candidate it would give someone from the Left a better chance. If I were a Kipper in R&S I’d vote for the more liberal Tory on preceisely those grounds!
The obvious endgame here is that all the parties do a primary and the ERS or whoever do them all in one go. So each voter gets a single envelope, with a ballot for each party, but they're only allowed to return one.
Douglas Carswell advocated piggy-backing party primaries onto local elections. With political parties picking up the additional cost.
On topic I notice Anna Firth this morning tweeted that there has been a lot of interest in the primary this week. Whether this will translates into the 15% - 20% turnout Mike mentions is another matter.
Incidentally I am not so sure the two candidates are that similar. Anna Firth describes herself as a traditional conservative whereas Kelly Tolhurst has some views that are not in the Conservative mainstream unless you are Baroness Warsi. Anna comes from Sevenoaks and is a well spoken barrister who can apparently project her voice remarkably well. She was in the running as candidate for Thanet South so in that sense she has "been around". She is also a married mother of three whereas Kelly I think has no children, is a local business woman (daughter of a boat builder) and speaks in the Medway vernacular. Kelly is new to the parliamentary candidate selection process and as such might stand a better chance of being chosen via a primary contest than with a vote by local Tory members. She has attracted the more flak of the two especially over her role as a local councillor. Of course that simply may be because Ukip sense Kelly might present the slightly greater threat to Reckless's chances.
Odd then that you and Ben are getting worked up about the Mail's offerings, if it's of no significance or influence.
The central message voters will get is that the NHS is no better under labour than the tories, and it is possibly worse.
It would be crazy to claim otherwise, based on the evidence from Wales.
I never actually read the Mail but I have to admit if its articles were designed to get non right wing people worked up it does succeed.
Mainly due to the incredible bias.
You do realise the headline could have read
"Exodus of patients from English NHS to Wales increases by 12% in a year, as Wales residents shun English NHS numbers down by 9,000.
I think I should just stop biting the Mail should be ignored
You never read it, yet you're convinced it's biased. Funny guy.
TBF - he isn't alone
"First minister Carwyn Jones said: 'To suggest that the NHS in Wales is somehow in every way in a more difficult state than in England is quite simply wrong.' Mr Jones admitted he had not read the Daily Mail's exposure of failings in the Welsh NHS before dismissing the investigation out of hand."
"Ukip has struck a deal with a Polish MEP whose far-right party leader casually uses racial slurs and questions the Holocaust following fears that its grouping in Europe would lose millions of pounds in taxpayers’ funds."
I linked to that in nighthawks.
What a lovely chap
In July, he declared in English that the minimum wage should be “destroyed” and said that “four million n*ggers” lost their jobs in the US as a result of President John F Kennedy signing a bill on the minimum wage in 1961.
He went on to claim that 20 million young Europeans were being treated as “negroes” as a result of the minimum wage. He refused to apologise and was fined 10 days of allowances for his comments.
I don't remember you being upset when the Finns Party joined the Tory group:
In 2011 MP Pentti Oinonen declined an invitation to the presidential Independence Day ball, citing his aversion to seeing same-sex couples dance.
We can play this game with every party grouping. The truth is that plenty of European nations have politics that are very unpleasant to those in the more decent UK. The obvious lesson is that we shouldn't politically integrate with such countries.
Even in, I expect authorised, leaks the BND have accepted that the BUK system that shot down MH17 was not supplied by Russia.
That said no evidence has been presented to the public, satellite imagery, blackbox recordings, recordings between pilots and ATC etc. Just even the narrative being presented has been changed, perhaps reflecting the need for an upcoming bailout of Ukraine and the effect sanctions are having on Germany's economy.
I'm surprised that this postal primary is legal. Sending ballots to everyone in the seat is tantamount to junk mail or spamming. Certainly I think there's a very strong case that it should be counted under election expenses, since it's advertising the party and the candidate. Hopefully once the lawyers have got their teeth into it, it'll be the last time it happens.
That must be why Ukip didn't have one in Clacton or R&S then ?? ...
If UKIP tried to overturn a Tory victory in Rochester & Strood, it would be sooo funny.
Poor Douglas Carswell look like complete and utter scumbag if he condoned such an action.
The whining from Kippers could be harnessed into an energy source to end our dependency on foreign and Scottish oil.
You can't have it all ways, TSE. either it's a fair and equal election for all, or Cameron is using his usual lubricious ways to gain an extra edge. If the Tories are caught being dodgy and illegal, I hope UKIP sue the pants off them.
Good facts in that response BenM. As per normal the Daily Mail peddling crap
You may made the NHS the central plank of your offering. It's inevitable your performance in government is going to be scrutinised.
This is just the start.
Peddling inaccurate drivel in the Daily Mail isn't going to overturn people's well justified scepticism about the Tories competence in handling the NHS.
Since it was founded how many years has the NHS survived under:
1 Labour Administration 2 Conservative Administration 3 Coalition Administration
I think history shows it is able to survive and sometimes flourish under any administration.
There has never been a £30bn black hole in the history of the NHS until now.
It's never had so many people to look after until now either.
The PSBR figures are disappointing, I don't think that can be disputed. It should be a major concern for any political party which thinks they might have a role in government after May that exceptional growth is simply not producing the additional taxes that might be expected. It strongly suggests that deficit reduction is going to be harder, involving more tax increases and more cuts in public spending than had been hoped.
So why are they so much worse given growth well north of 3%?
Firstly, I think the government has overreached itself with increases in personal allowances. Not enough people are paying into the pot any more and a vastly disproportionate number of the newly employed are not paying in at all.
Secondly, this increase in low paid employment combined with policies focused on making work pay has meant that many of the newly employed are getting more benefits from being employed than they got when they were unemployed.
Thirdly, the increase in low paid employment has been so massive that it is reducing the average increase in wages across the economy. Whilst many in work are in fact doing better the overall average is falling in real terms.
Fourthly, other revenues, such as North Sea oil, have disappointed.
Of course if the revisals had not been made to last year's figures reducing the deficit by over £14 bn we would actually be doing marginally better than last year rather than worse. But we are simply not managing to rebalance our economy in the way we need to. No doubt Ed Balls will be announcing another round of cuts in spending after the election in the next week or two to compensate.
"Ukip has struck a deal with a Polish MEP whose far-right party leader casually uses racial slurs and questions the Holocaust following fears that its grouping in Europe would lose millions of pounds in taxpayers’ funds."
I linked to that in nighthawks.
What a lovely chap
In July, he declared in English that the minimum wage should be “destroyed” and said that “four million n*ggers” lost their jobs in the US as a result of President John F Kennedy signing a bill on the minimum wage in 1961.
He went on to claim that 20 million young Europeans were being treated as “negroes” as a result of the minimum wage. He refused to apologise and was fined 10 days of allowances for his comments.
I don't remember you being upset when the Finns Party joined the Tory group:
In 2011 MP Pentti Oinonen declined an invitation to the presidential Independence Day ball, citing his aversion to seeing same-sex couples dance.
We can play this game with every party grouping. The truth is that plenty of European nations have politics that are very unpleasant to those in the more decent UK. The obvious lesson is that we shouldn't politically integrate with such countries.
I'm surprised that this postal primary is legal. Sending ballots to everyone in the seat is tantamount to junk mail or spamming. Certainly I think there's a very strong case that it should be counted under election expenses, since it's advertising the party and the candidate. Hopefully once the lawyers have got their teeth into it, it'll be the last time it happens.
That must be why Ukip didn't have one in Clacton or R&S then ?? ...
If UKIP tried to overturn a Tory victory in Rochester & Strood, it would be sooo funny.
Poor Douglas Carswell look like complete and utter scumbag if he condoned such an action.
The whining from Kippers could be harnessed into an energy source to end our dependency on foreign and Scottish oil.
You can't have it all ways, TSE. either it's a fair and equal election for all, or Cameron is using his usual lubricious ways to gain an extra edge. If the Tories are caught being dodgy and illegal, I hope UKIP sue the pants off them.
See further proof of that energy source that could be harnessed.
"NIGEL Farage has revealed that the UK Independence Party’s general election strategy will be significantly swayed by its success or failure in the South Yorkshire police and crime commissioner by-election."
"NIGEL Farage has revealed that the UK Independence Party’s general election strategy will be significantly swayed by its success or failure in the South Yorkshire police and crime commissioner by-election."
They aren't being very active in my neck of the woods, I've received literature from the Tory candidate and the Labour candidate.
That said, I can't see Dore being very fertile for UKIP.
And as one of your fellow Kippers said on here, the UKIP candidate isn't very impressive, if he's representative, you can see why South Yorkshire police are held in such low regard.
Mr. Eagles, I recently got some electoral stuff (a faux newspaper) from the Conservatives. Bit surprised, but there's been a fair amount, for the off-season, from both them and Balls over the years since the last election.
"Ukip has struck a deal with a Polish MEP whose far-right party leader casually uses racial slurs and questions the Holocaust following fears that its grouping in Europe would lose millions of pounds in taxpayers’ funds."
I linked to that in nighthawks.
What a lovely chap
In July, he declared in English that the minimum wage should be “destroyed” and said that “four million n*ggers” lost their jobs in the US as a result of President John F Kennedy signing a bill on the minimum wage in 1961.
He went on to claim that 20 million young Europeans were being treated as “negroes” as a result of the minimum wage. He refused to apologise and was fined 10 days of allowances for his comments.
In the EP he gets fined. Here the political commissars and thought police would have thrown him in jail.
"Ukip has struck a deal with a Polish MEP whose far-right party leader casually uses racial slurs and questions the Holocaust following fears that its grouping in Europe would lose millions of pounds in taxpayers’ funds."
I linked to that in nighthawks.
What a lovely chap
In July, he declared in English that the minimum wage should be “destroyed” and said that “four million n*ggers” lost their jobs in the US as a result of President John F Kennedy signing a bill on the minimum wage in 1961.
He went on to claim that 20 million young Europeans were being treated as “negroes” as a result of the minimum wage. He refused to apologise and was fined 10 days of allowances for his comments.
To be clear, the person you are quoting isn't the MEP that has joined the UKIP group is he?
Mr. Eagles, I recently got some electoral stuff (a faux newspaper) from the Conservatives. Bit surprised, but there's been a fair amount, for the off-season, from both them and Balls over the years since the last election.
I think both the Tories and Labour don't know what to make of the last result. Notional majority of 10k, becomes a majority of 1k.
Not surprised both are throwing a lot of effort into your seat.
In today's Yougov poll 40% want to remain in the EU, 39% want to leave. Voters in England and Wales are slightly in favour of leaving, voters in Scotland in favour of staying. If it's that close, Northern Ireland might tip the scale in favour of leaving.
There's no chance we would vote to leave, especially on those numbers. The idea that we would vote Yes to leave the EU exists only as wild europhobe fantasy.
"Ukip has struck a deal with a Polish MEP whose far-right party leader casually uses racial slurs and questions the Holocaust following fears that its grouping in Europe would lose millions of pounds in taxpayers’ funds."
I linked to that in nighthawks.
What a lovely chap
In July, he declared in English that the minimum wage should be “destroyed” and said that “four million n*ggers” lost their jobs in the US as a result of President John F Kennedy signing a bill on the minimum wage in 1961.
He went on to claim that 20 million young Europeans were being treated as “negroes” as a result of the minimum wage. He refused to apologise and was fined 10 days of allowances for his comments.
To be clear, the person you are quoting isn't the MEP that has joined the UKIP group is he?
He is not, but the other piece I read, is that he didn't condemn the comments either.
Mr. Eagles, sizeable (but distant third) Lib Dem vote for others to eat into as well. UKIP did well last time (4-5k votes, I think, off the top of my head), and the BNP's 1k or so will vanish.
I'd still expect Balls to increase his majority fairly easily. UKIP are on the up and the Conservatives are in office. The only potential pitfall for Balls here is if UKIP take more Labour sorts than Conservatives.
As I've mentioned before, I may write a piece entitled Ed Balls - My Part In His Downfall if he loses.
Mr. Eagles, sizeable (but distant third) Lib Dem vote for others to eat into as well. UKIP did well last time (4-5k votes, I think, off the top of my head), and the BNP's 1k or so will vanish.
I'd still expect Balls to increase his majority fairly easily. UKIP are on the up and the Conservatives are in office. The only potential pitfall for Balls here is if UKIP take more Labour sorts than Conservatives.
As I've mentioned before, I may write a piece entitled Ed Balls - My Part In His Downfall if he loses.
Had Balls and Darling lost last time, I was going to write a book called
The decline in Labour Support in Wales that @AnotherDave linked to earlier is very similar to the UK as a whole in that LDs jumped straight to Labour after the 2010 Election and have slowly been leaving ever since leaving Labour back where they started, but crucially the LibDems still struggling, as the (protest) voters they lost, have gone elsewhere
Definitely warrants a thread, it is relevant to almost everything we discuss on here, and has massive betting implications for those who rely on Labours 35%/2010 LD strategy for next May
"NIGEL Farage has revealed that the UK Independence Party’s general election strategy will be significantly swayed by its success or failure in the South Yorkshire police and crime commissioner by-election."
Mr. Eagles, sizeable (but distant third) Lib Dem vote for others to eat into as well. UKIP did well last time (4-5k votes, I think, off the top of my head), and the BNP's 1k or so will vanish.
I'd still expect Balls to increase his majority fairly easily. UKIP are on the up and the Conservatives are in office. The only potential pitfall for Balls here is if UKIP take more Labour sorts than Conservatives.
As I've mentioned before, I may write a piece entitled Ed Balls - My Part In His Downfall if he loses.
As Heywood & Middleton and Newark have shown, a collapse in Lib Dem votes and shares doesn't mean an increase in Lab votes.
I expect Balls to hold, as the tory candidate isn't going to be Tony Calvert, who was highly impressive
"NIGEL Farage has revealed that the UK Independence Party’s general election strategy will be significantly swayed by its success or failure in the South Yorkshire police and crime commissioner by-election."
Mr. Eagles, sizeable (but distant third) Lib Dem vote for others to eat into as well. UKIP did well last time (4-5k votes, I think, off the top of my head), and the BNP's 1k or so will vanish.
I'd still expect Balls to increase his majority fairly easily. UKIP are on the up and the Conservatives are in office. The only potential pitfall for Balls here is if UKIP take more Labour sorts than Conservatives.
As I've mentioned before, I may write a piece entitled Ed Balls - My Part In His Downfall if he loses.
If a poll came out showing UKIP ahead ((Significantly) Of the Tories) in your patch, would you vote for them ?
The PSBR figures are disappointing, I don't think that can be disputed. It should be a major concern for any political party which thinks they might have a role in government after May that exceptional growth is simply not producing the additional taxes that might be expected. It strongly suggests that deficit reduction is going to be harder, involving more tax increases and more cuts in public spending than had been hoped.
So why are they so much worse given growth well north of 3%?
Firstly, I think the government has overreached itself with increases in personal allowances. Not enough people are paying into the pot any more and a vastly disproportionate number of the newly employed are not paying in at all.
Secondly, this increase in low paid employment combined with policies focused on making work pay has meant that many of the newly employed are getting more benefits from being employed than they got when they were unemployed.
Thirdly, the increase in low paid employment has been so massive that it is reducing the average increase in wages across the economy. Whilst many in work are in fact doing better the overall average is falling in real terms.
Fourthly, other revenues, such as North Sea oil, have disappointed.
Of course if the revisals had not been made to last year's figures reducing the deficit by over £14 bn we would actually be doing marginally better than last year rather than worse. But we are simply not managing to rebalance our economy in the way we need to. No doubt Ed Balls will be announcing another round of cuts in spending after the election in the next week or two to compensate.
Yes some boffins need to work out how to improve the tax take in this country. There are too many anomalies remaining because income tax isn't providing the funds required - an example being the unfair stamp duty banding on property sales. So some thinking outside the box is required. In principle wealth should be taxed more heavily but Labour's revised and half hearted mansion tax doesn't do the trick that's for sure. Far too many tears are shed for people living in £3m houses on a supposedly low income. They're millionaires benefiting from huge rises in the value of their assets and they should make a proper contribution.
It'd depend on a few things: how far from the vote it was whether it was similar to other polls how close to Labour the UKIP vote was what the UKIP candidate was like
My priority is axing Balls. Voting UKIP, if I believe they stood the best chance of getting rid of him, would not be difficult.
I don't think that's a likely occurrence, though.
Edited extra bit: cheers for the answer, Mr. Eagles.
The PSBR figures are disappointing, I don't think that can be disputed. It should be a major concern for any political party which thinks they might have a role in government after May that exceptional growth is simply not producing the additional taxes that might be expected. It strongly suggests that deficit reduction is going to be harder, involving more tax increases and more cuts in public spending than had been hoped.
So why are they so much worse given growth well north of 3%?
Firstly, I think the government has overreached itself with increases in personal allowances. Not enough people are paying into the pot any more and a vastly disproportionate number of the newly employed are not paying in at all.
Secondly, this increase in low paid employment combined with policies focused on making work pay has meant that many of the newly employed are getting more benefits from being employed than they got when they were unemployed.
Thirdly, the increase in low paid employment has been so massive that it is reducing the average increase in wages across the economy. Whilst many in work are in fact doing better the overall average is falling in real terms.
Fourthly, other revenues, such as North Sea oil, have disappointed.
Of course if the revisals had not been made to last year's figures reducing the deficit by over £14 bn we would actually be doing marginally better than last year rather than worse. But we are simply not managing to rebalance our economy in the way we need to. No doubt Ed Balls will be announcing another round of cuts in spending after the election in the next week or two to compensate.
Yes some boffins need to work out how to improve the tax take in this country. There are too many anomalies remaining because income tax isn't providing the funds required - an example being the unfair stamp duty banding on property sales. So some thinking outside the box is required. In principle wealth should be taxed more heavily but Labour's revised and half hearted mansion tax doesn't do the trick that's for sure. Far too many tears are shed for people living in £3m houses on a supposedly low income. They're millionaires benefiting from huge rises in the value of their assets and they should make a proper contribution.
Remove the capital gains tax exemption on principal private residences. That'll do the trick.
It would also foster a healthier and saner property market, but somehow I think no Political Leader has the cojones to suggest it.
It'd depend on a few things: how far from the vote it was whether it was similar to other polls how close to Labour the UKIP vote was what the UKIP candidate was like
My priority is axing Balls. Voting UKIP, if I believe they stood the best chance of getting rid of him, would not be difficult.
I don't think that's a likely occurrence, though.
Edited extra bit: cheers for the answer, Mr. Eagles.
My local MP is Natascha Engels, for a Labourite she's not bad actually - so given its a fairly safe Labour Hold my vote won't be particularly tactical. I'm undecided between the yellow peril, the purples and the blues at the moment. To vote Lib Dem or not to vote Lib Dem might be the most important here as I think their deposit will be on a knife edge.
Yes some boffins need to work out how to improve the tax take in this country. There are too many anomalies remaining because income tax isn't providing the funds required - an example being the unfair stamp duty banding on property sales. So some thinking outside the box is required. In principle wealth should be taxed more heavily but Labour's revised and half hearted mansion tax doesn't do the trick that's for sure. Far too many tears are shed for people living in £3m houses on a supposedly low income. They're millionaires benefiting from huge rises in the value of their assets and they should make a proper contribution.
I agree with that. A major problem for the UK and indeed most western countries is the inability to impose effective taxes on multinationals operating within our country. The idea that Amazon, for example, is really not making a taxable profit is laughable and should not be tolerated.
Those that gain the most from our society should pay the most to sustain it but that does not mean that we do not need more to contribute. The talk of tax cuts at the Tory conference was irresponsible in my view. The tax take needs to increase by 2-3% of GDP while government spending is also reduced by 2-3% of GDP. That is the scale of the problem and our political classes are not facing up to it on either side of the P&L.
It'd depend on a few things: how far from the vote it was whether it was similar to other polls how close to Labour the UKIP vote was what the UKIP candidate was like
My priority is axing Balls. Voting UKIP, if I believe they stood the best chance of getting rid of him, would not be difficult.
I don't think that's a likely occurrence, though.
Edited extra bit: cheers for the answer, Mr. Eagles.
The BBC did exactly this yesterday on R5. A big attack on staffing, morale etc, and there was one tiny mention after clearly people we calling in saying that the individuals making the claims of terrible working conditions where...said quickly La....la la la la. bour...run, now moving on we have a UNISON rep to do some more government bashing.
The PSBR figures are disappointing, I don't think that can be disputed. It should be a major concern for any political party which thinks they might have a role in government after May that exceptional growth is simply not producing the additional taxes that might be expected. It strongly suggests that deficit reduction is going to be harder, involving more tax increases and more cuts in public spending than had been hoped.
So why are they so much worse given growth well north of 3%?
Firstly, I think the government has overreached itself with increases in personal allowances. Not enough people are paying into the pot any more and a vastly disproportionate number of the newly employed are not paying in at all.
Secondly, this increase in low paid employment combined with policies focused on making work pay has meant that many of the newly employed are getting more benefits from being employed than they got when they were unemployed.
Thirdly, the increase in low paid employment has been so massive that it is reducing the average increase in wages across the economy. Whilst many in work are in fact doing better the overall average is falling in real terms.
Fourthly, other revenues, such as North Sea oil, have disappointed.
Of course if the revisals had not been made to last year's figures reducing the deficit by over £14 bn we would actually be doing marginally better than last year rather than worse. But we are simply not managing to rebalance our economy in the way we need to. No doubt Ed Balls will be announcing another round of cuts in spending after the election in the next week or two to compensate.
Yes some boffins need to work out how to improve the tax take in this country. There are too many anomalies remaining because income tax isn't providing the funds required - an example being the unfair stamp duty banding on property sales. So some thinking outside the box is required. In principle wealth should be taxed more heavily but Labour's revised and half hearted mansion tax doesn't do the trick that's for sure. Far too many tears are shed for people living in £3m houses on a supposedly low income. They're millionaires benefiting from huge rises in the value of their assets and they should make a proper contribution.
Remove the capital gains tax exemption on principal private residences. That'll do the trick.
It would also foster a healthier and saner property market, but somehow I think no Political Leader has the cojones to suggest it.
I agree that no politician would bring in such a measure. However, I am sceptical that it would raise the sort of sums needed and it would have side-effects that would do more harm than any good obtained.
I am no fan of Kerry but it is clear the inference he was making, as indeed were the numerous media reports released after the tragic event. What is clear that even the BND now accepts Russia had nothing to do with the shooting down, you clearly accept this narrative shift.
It is a shame the conversations with ATC and the blackbox recordings have not been released.
I was always of the opinion that the rebels stole the missile system used to shoot down MH17 - all the contemporary reports suggested that the rebels had stolen the system - for example here's the Economist from July
Early on July 17th, several hours before MH17 was destroyed, journalists from the Associated Press reported seeing a launcher near Snezhnoye that they said looked like a Buk system. Igor Sutyagin, a Russian expert at RUSI, a London-based think-tank, says that four hours before news of the shooting down spread, reports were coming in from social media of sightings of the launcher near what became the crash site. Previously, there had been reports about separatist rebels boasting of having captured Buk missiles from a Ukrainian army base near Donetsk. The reports first surfaced on June 29th and were mainly carried by Russian state news agencies. According to sources, the story first ran on TV Zvezda, the news agency of the Russian defence ministry.
There's also no question that Russia was and has been providing material and manpower support to the rebels - unless the rebels somehow built a tank battalion or two all of a sudden, The only question that I had over MH17 was whether Russia provided technical/personnel support to the rebels for that particular launcher or not.
The PSBR figures are disappointing, I don't think that can be disputed. It should be a major concern for any political party which thinks they might have a role in government after May that exceptional growth is simply not producing the additional taxes that might be expected. It strongly suggests that deficit reduction is going to be harder, involving more tax increases and more cuts in public spending than had been hoped.
So why are they so much worse given growth well north of 3%?
Firstly, I think the government has overreached itself with increases in personal allowances. Not enough people are paying into the pot any more and a vastly disproportionate number of the newly employed are not paying in at all.
Secondly, this increase in low paid employment combined with policies focused on making work pay has meant that many of the newly employed are getting more benefits from being employed than they got when they were unemployed.
Thirdly, the increase in low paid employment has been so massive that it is reducing the average increase in wages across the economy. Whilst many in work are in fact doing better the overall average is falling in real terms.
Fourthly, other revenues, such as North Sea oil, have disappointed.
Of course if the revisals had not been made to last year's figures reducing the deficit by over £14 bn we would actually be doing marginally better than last year rather than worse. But we are simply not managing to rebalance our economy in the way we need to. No doubt Ed Balls will be announcing another round of cuts in spending after the election in the next week or two to compensate.
There is a tendency for the public sector deficit to get revised downwards. This time last year, borrowing seemed to be heading higher than in 2012/13.
Yes some boffins need to work out how to improve the tax take in this country. There are too many anomalies remaining because income tax isn't providing the funds required - an example being the unfair stamp duty banding on property sales. So some thinking outside the box is required. In principle wealth should be taxed more heavily but Labour's revised and half hearted mansion tax doesn't do the trick that's for sure. Far too many tears are shed for people living in £3m houses on a supposedly low income. They're millionaires benefiting from huge rises in the value of their assets and they should make a proper contribution.
I agree with that. A major problem for the UK and indeed most western countries is the inability to impose effective taxes on multinationals operating within our country. The idea that Amazon, for example, is really not making a taxable profit is laughable and should not be tolerated.
Those that gain the most from our society should pay the most to sustain it but that does not mean that we do not need more to contribute. The talk of tax cuts at the Tory conference was irresponsible in my view. The tax take needs to increase by 2-3% of GDP while government spending is also reduced by 2-3% of GDP. That is the scale of the problem and our political classes are not facing up to it on either side of the P&L.
OECD countries are slowly moving towards country-by-country reporting, that's the key building block of stopping multi-national money "disappearing".
In today's Yougov poll 40% want to remain in the EU, 39% want to leave. Voters in England and Wales are slightly in favour of leaving, voters in Scotland in favour of staying. If it's that close, Northern Ireland might tip the scale in favour of leaving.
There's no chance we would vote to leave, especially on those numbers. The idea that we would vote Yes to leave the EU exists only as wild europhobe fantasy.
"No chance" seems a bold claim when there's only 1% in it either way.
The Scottish Independence campaign finished on 45%, despite polls giving them 30-35%, prior to the start of the campaign.
"Ukip has struck a deal with a Polish MEP whose far-right party leader casually uses racial slurs and questions the Holocaust following fears that its grouping in Europe would lose millions of pounds in taxpayers’ funds."
I linked to that in nighthawks.
What a lovely chap
In July, he declared in English that the minimum wage should be “destroyed” and said that “four million n*ggers” lost their jobs in the US as a result of President John F Kennedy signing a bill on the minimum wage in 1961.
He went on to claim that 20 million young Europeans were being treated as “negroes” as a result of the minimum wage. He refused to apologise and was fined 10 days of allowances for his comments.
To be clear, the person you are quoting isn't the MEP that has joined the UKIP group is he?
He is not, but the other piece I read, is that he didn't condemn the comments either.
The PSBR figures are disappointing, I don't think that can be disputed. It should be a major concern for any political party which thinks they might have a role in government after May that exceptional growth is simply not producing the additional taxes that might be expected. It strongly suggests that deficit reduction is going to be harder, involving more tax increases and more cuts in public spending than had been hoped.
So why are they so much worse given growth well north of 3%?
Firstly, I think the government has overreached itself with increases in personal allowances. Not enough people are paying into the pot any more and a vastly disproportionate number of the newly employed are not paying in at all.
Secondly, this increase in low paid employment combined with policies focused on making work pay has meant that many of the newly employed are getting more benefits from being employed than they got when they were unemployed.
Thirdly, the increase in low paid employment has been so massive that it is reducing the average increase in wages across the economy. Whilst many in work are in fact doing better the overall average is falling in real terms.
Fourthly, other revenues, such as North Sea oil, have disappointed.
Of course if the revisals had not been made to last year's figures reducing the deficit by over £14 bn we would actually be doing marginally better than last year rather than worse. But we are simply not managing to rebalance our economy in the way we need to. No doubt Ed Balls will be announcing another round of cuts in spending after the election in the next week or two to compensate.
There is a tendency for the public sector deficit to get revised downwards. This time last year, borrowing seemed to be heading higher than in 2012/13.
That is true Sean and it may well happen again but it is not going to do George much good this side of an election!
Plus in the overall scheme of things the revisals are quite small. We still have a major problem.
Yes some boffins need to work out how to improve the tax take in this country. There are too many anomalies remaining because income tax isn't providing the funds required - an example being the unfair stamp duty banding on property sales. So some thinking outside the box is required. In principle wealth should be taxed more heavily but Labour's revised and half hearted mansion tax doesn't do the trick that's for sure. Far too many tears are shed for people living in £3m houses on a supposedly low income. They're millionaires benefiting from huge rises in the value of their assets and they should make a proper contribution.
I agree with that. A major problem for the UK and indeed most western countries is the inability to impose effective taxes on multinationals operating within our country. The idea that Amazon, for example, is really not making a taxable profit is laughable and should not be tolerated.
Those that gain the most from our society should pay the most to sustain it but that does not mean that we do not need more to contribute. The talk of tax cuts at the Tory conference was irresponsible in my view. The tax take needs to increase by 2-3% of GDP while government spending is also reduced by 2-3% of GDP. That is the scale of the problem and our political classes are not facing up to it on either side of the P&L.
OECD countries are slowly moving towards country-by-country reporting, that's the key building block of stopping multi-national money "disappearing".
It certainly needs an international approach and I can see the attraction in that for big countries in particular. Not so sure Ireland will think it is a brilliant plan!
Would take the BND with a pinch of salt, but clearly saying the US and Kiev were lying, again. Of course the conversation between ATC and the pilots still not released. Best case scenario Kiev put the flight in harm's way and/or a military jet was using the plane as cover, BBC recorded eye witnesses saying they saw a military jet underneath.
Uh, I thought most people believed it was a captured missile system in that particular case rather than a Russian supplied system given that the Rebels social networked that they had captured a missile system and then tweeted that they had used it.
On NBC’s “Meet the Press,” David Gregory asked, “Are you bottom-lining here that Russia provided the weapon?”
Kerry: “There’s a story today confirming that, but we have not within the Administration made a determination. But it’s pretty clear when – there’s a build-up of extraordinary circumstantial evidence. I’m a former prosecutor. I’ve tried cases on circumstantial evidence; it’s powerful here.”
Kerry and the interviewer seem to be talking at cross purposes. Kerry is talking about Russia clearly giving material aid to the Rebels and that the rebels clearly launched the missile. The Interviewer wants to know if the Russians supplied the actual missile and launch system to which Kerry responds that the Ameican government has not come down one way or another on that issue.
Kerry:"So there’s a stacking-up of evidence here which Russia needs to help account for. We are not drawing the final conclusion here"
I am no fan of Kerry but it is clear the inference he was making, as indeed were the numerous media reports released after the tragic event. What is clear that even the BND now accepts Russia had nothing to do with the shooting down, you clearly accept this narrative shift.
It is a shame the conversations with ATC and the blackbox recordings have not been released.
The BND report if true is a useful clarification but that's no excuse to appease Putin.
In today's Yougov poll 40% want to remain in the EU, 39% want to leave. Voters in England and Wales are slightly in favour of leaving, voters in Scotland in favour of staying. If it's that close, Northern Ireland might tip the scale in favour of leaving.
There's no chance we would vote to leave, especially on those numbers. The idea that we would vote Yes to leave the EU exists only as wild europhobe fantasy.
"No chance" seems a bold claim when there's only 1% in it either way.
The Scottish Independence campaign finished on 45%, despite polls giving them 30-35%, prior to the start of the campaign.
I agree with that. A major problem for the UK and indeed most western countries is the inability to impose effective taxes on multinationals operating within our country. The idea that Amazon, for example, is really not making a taxable profit is laughable and should not be tolerated.
Labour 50-1 is the story. What has happened to the leftish vote in Kent?
I still can't figure out Labour giving up on a big swathe of turf that has recently been their own.
Kent's a socially conservative sort of place, on both the left and right of politics. Millipede and his right-on Primrose Hill chums - to quote Morrissey - say nothing to them about their lives. Why UKIP are a big force in East Kent and the Medway Towns (which is "where you take northerners when they say southerners are soft").
I agree with that. A major problem for the UK and indeed most western countries is the inability to impose effective taxes on multinationals operating within our country. The idea that Amazon, for example, is really not making a taxable profit is laughable and should not be tolerated.
In today's Yougov poll 40% want to remain in the EU, 39% want to leave. Voters in England and Wales are slightly in favour of leaving, voters in Scotland in favour of staying. If it's that close, Northern Ireland might tip the scale in favour of leaving.
There's no chance we would vote to leave, especially on those numbers. The idea that we would vote Yes to leave the EU exists only as wild europhobe fantasy.
That's why all the Europhile parties are running scared of a referendum!
The PSBR figures are disappointing, I don't think that can be disputed. It should be a major concern for any political party which thinks they might have a role in government after May that exceptional growth is simply not producing the additional taxes that might be expected. It strongly suggests that deficit reduction is going to be harder, involving more tax increases and more cuts in public spending than had been hoped.
So why are they so much worse given growth well north of 3%?
Firstly, I think the government has overreached itself with increases in personal allowances. Not enough people are paying into the pot any more and a vastly disproportionate number of the newly employed are not paying in at all.
Secondly, this increase in low paid employment combined with policies focused on making work pay has meant that many of the newly employed are getting more benefits from being employed than they got when they were unemployed.
Thirdly, the increase in low paid employment has been so massive that it is reducing the average increase in wages across the economy. Whilst many in work are in fact doing better the overall average is falling in real terms.
Fourthly, other revenues, such as North Sea oil, have disappointed.
Of course if the revisals had not been made to last year's figures reducing the deficit by over £14 bn we would actually be doing marginally better than last year rather than worse. But we are simply not managing to rebalance our economy in the way we need to. No doubt Ed Balls will be announcing another round of cuts in spending after the election in the next week or two to compensate.
Yes some boffins need to work out how to improve the tax take in this country. There are too many anomalies remaining because income tax isn't providing the funds required - an example being the unfair stamp duty banding on property sales. So some thinking outside the box is required. In principle wealth should be taxed more heavily but Labour's revised and half hearted mansion tax doesn't do the trick that's for sure. Far too many tears are shed for people living in £3m houses on a supposedly low income. They're millionaires benefiting from huge rises in the value of their assets and they should make a proper contribution.
Alternatively spend less. International Development Aid - should be canned straight away. Whenever there is an emergency overseas there is always some money down the back of the sofa.
The state spends £730b+ a year. 1% of that is £7b. Any company could find a 1% saving if pushed. The state can´t. Too many mouths at the trough.
In 2004 the government spent £455b. In ten years we have had an increase of 60%. Inflation in the same period was say 33%. That´s £126b difference and the deficit gone. Just like that.
Has a less attractive human being than Simon Danczuk ever been an MP? Why Ed Miliband doesn't silence him I can't imagine. If I lived in his constituency I think I'd shoot myself
I don't know the areas very well nowadays, but had it as my patch as a regional manager back in the early 90s. Well hard in many places, especially Gillingham.
Labour 50-1 is the story. What has happened to the leftish vote in Kent?
I still can't figure out Labour giving up on a big swathe of turf that has recently been their own.
Kent's a socially conservative sort of place, on both the left and right of politics. Millipede and his right-on Primrose Hill chums - to quote Morrissey - say nothing to them about their lives. Why UKIP are a big force in East Kent and the Medway Towns (which is "where you take northerners when they say southerners are soft").
In today's Yougov poll 40% want to remain in the EU, 39% want to leave. Voters in England and Wales are slightly in favour of leaving, voters in Scotland in favour of staying. If it's that close, Northern Ireland might tip the scale in favour of leaving.
There's no chance we would vote to leave, especially on those numbers. The idea that we would vote Yes to leave the EU exists only as wild europhobe fantasy.
That's why all the Europhile parties are running scared of a referendum!
Surely the most unintentionally comic post of the year.
Has a less attractive human being than Simon Danczuk ever been an MP? Why Ed Miliband doesn't silence him I can't imagine. If I lived in his constituency I think I'd shoot myself
I don't know the areas very well nowadays, but had it as my patch as a regional manager back in the early 90s. Well hard in many places, especially Gillingham.
Labour 50-1 is the story. What has happened to the leftish vote in Kent?
I still can't figure out Labour giving up on a big swathe of turf that has recently been their own.
Kent's a socially conservative sort of place, on both the left and right of politics. Millipede and his right-on Primrose Hill chums - to quote Morrissey - say nothing to them about their lives. Why UKIP are a big force in East Kent and the Medway Towns (which is "where you take northerners when they say southerners are soft").
There is nothing much good about social conservatism, which is essentially telling others how to live their lives. The Kentish are welcome to it
Mr. Eagles, sizeable (but distant third) Lib Dem vote for others to eat into as well. UKIP did well last time (4-5k votes, I think, off the top of my head), and the BNP's 1k or so will vanish.
I'd still expect Balls to increase his majority fairly easily. UKIP are on the up and the Conservatives are in office. The only potential pitfall for Balls here is if UKIP take more Labour sorts than Conservatives.
As I've mentioned before, I may write a piece entitled Ed Balls - My Part In His Downfall if he loses.
Pitch it to the Guardian. They may offer you peanuts/magic beans/a cow to run it as a general election campaign blog - "News from the marginals" sort of thing. And then they'd advertise the ebook version for you afterwards.
Good facts in that response BenM. As per normal the Daily Mail peddling crap
You may made the NHS the central plank of your offering. It's inevitable your performance in government is going to be scrutinised.
This is just the start.
Peddling inaccurate drivel in the Daily Mail isn't going to overturn people's well justified scepticism about the Tories competence in handling the NHS.
Since it was founded how many years has the NHS survived under:
1 Labour Administration 2 Conservative Administration 3 Coalition Administration
I think history shows it is able to survive and sometimes flourish under any administration.
There has never been a £30bn black hole in the history of the NHS until now.
So why is it so much worse in Wales than England ?
It isn't.
Why do Welsh people opt for treatment in England and not vice versa ?
Exodus of patients from English NHS to Wales increases by 12% in a year, as Wales residents shun English NHS numbers down by 9,000
Why do Welsh people opt for treatment in England and not vice versa ?
Exodus of patients from English NHS to Wales increases by 12% in a year, as Wales residents shun English NHS numbers down by 9,000
Ignore the Daily Mail FFS
First rule of politics. Anyone who mixes percentages with absolute numbers is either a) mathematically illiterate b) wants to promote the opposite meaning to what the actual figures show and mislead the public or c) a combination of the two.
(When I used to visit my parents, my mother would complain that the amount of washing up increased by 50% when I arrived, but only reduced by 33% when I left.)
There will be no referendum. We are not going to destabilise the UK for years merely to ask a question to which we already know the answer. I am euroagnostic but the idea we should or would vote to leave is so preposterous I am amazed that otherwise intellegent people even countenance it.
Mr. Me, interesting idea, but I was only intending a single fairly brief piece mocking Balls rather than multiple articles, let alone a book.
Edited extra bit: hmm. A more sustainable/regular idea has occurred to me. I might give it a go on my blog, see what people think (if it even works, it might not) and proceeding accordingly.
Assuming I have some spare time. Got another, unrelated, project I want to try and start.
I don't know the areas very well nowadays, but had it as my patch as a regional manager back in the early 90s. Well hard in many places, especially Gillingham.
Labour 50-1 is the story. What has happened to the leftish vote in Kent?
I still can't figure out Labour giving up on a big swathe of turf that has recently been their own.
Kent's a socially conservative sort of place, on both the left and right of politics. Millipede and his right-on Primrose Hill chums - to quote Morrissey - say nothing to them about their lives. Why UKIP are a big force in East Kent and the Medway Towns (which is "where you take northerners when they say southerners are soft").
There is nothing much good about social conservatism, which is essentially telling others how to live their lives. The Kentish are welcome to it
Strange but I all the people who seem to want to tell me how to live seem to be so-called progressives. Indeed the more progressive they are they more authoritarian they seem to become to the point where even OGH has noticed.
There will be no referendum. We are not going to destabilise the UK for years merely to ask a question to which we already know the answer. I am euroagnostic but the idea we should or would vote to leave is so preposterous I am amazed that otherwise intellegent people even countenance it.
If we already know the answer, why would it destabilise anything? There is no chance for the Sodom & Gomorrah style catastrophe of being an independent nation like Australia or Canada, so surely no feathers would be ruffled.
"[Repeal is] not gonna happen," Kasich told The Associated Press during a recent re-election campaign swing.
"The opposition to it was really either political or ideological," the Republican governor added. "I don't think that holds water against real flesh and blood, and real improvements in people's lives."
I don't know the areas very well nowadays, but had it as my patch as a regional manager back in the early 90s. Well hard in many places, especially Gillingham.
Labour 50-1 is the story. What has happened to the leftish vote in Kent?
I still can't figure out Labour giving up on a big swathe of turf that has recently been their own.
Kent's a socially conservative sort of place, on both the left and right of politics. Millipede and his right-on Primrose Hill chums - to quote Morrissey - say nothing to them about their lives. Why UKIP are a big force in East Kent and the Medway Towns (which is "where you take northerners when they say southerners are soft").
There is nothing much good about social conservatism, which is essentially telling others how to live their lives. The Kentish are welcome to it
Strange but I all the people who seem to want to tell me how to live seem to be so-called progressives. Indeed the more progressive they are they more authoritarian they seem to become to the point where even OGH has noticed.
Exactly... Progressives think they are sooo modern but they are just old fashioned authoritarians wearing different clothes with the addition of blinkers.
They also seem to be far more hostile to anyone who disagrees with them than people they consider "bigots"
Exactly... Progressives think they are sooo modern but they are just old fashioned authoritarians wearing different clothes with the addition of blinkers.
They also seem to be far more hostile to anyone who disagrees with them than people they consider "bigots"
Indeed. Social conservatism in the UK these days is more about people wanting to maintain their lives and local culture, not change it for other people.
I am no longer losing over £10k in my annuity share punts (at the moment), I'm now just down £9.4k.
It's all coming right baby.
Watch out Reckless, I'm on a roll!
This crossed my mind when you made reference to your CT bill not being paid yet this morning. Hopefully you have some other, more successful, investments. George needs the money!
There will be no referendum. We are not going to destabilise the UK for years merely to ask a question to which we already know the answer. I am euroagnostic but the idea we should or would vote to leave is so preposterous I am amazed that otherwise intellegent people even countenance it.
The polls have it 50/50.. how could someone who has no real view takes such a closed minded position?
Progressives think they are sooo modern but they are just old fashioned authoritarians wearing different clothes with the addition of blinkers.
Control is central to the everyone on the left. Take Climate change. It isn;t about the climate, its about controlling the behaviour of others via self appointed authority.
@BBCNormanS: Nigel Farage says @UKIP Calypso song " not racist.....it's clearly a bit of fun"
Havent heard it, don't want to either..
But the idea that it is racist if a singer does a bit of a carribean accent on a calypso style song is almost up there with Ed Miliband's nonsense re Lord Freud
If a Black West Indian sang a mod style song in a London accent I wouldn't mind at all, let alone the fact that there are many black Londoners, and white West Indians
So it is the "wacist" screamers who judge/divide things on colour.. I thought the point was there was no difference?
By these standards we should question anyone who isn't English reading Shakespearean dialogue in an English accent
There will be no referendum. We are not going to destabilise the UK for years merely to ask a question to which we already know the answer. I am euroagnostic but the idea we should or would vote to leave is so preposterous I am amazed that otherwise intellegent people even countenance it.
There isn't going to be a referendum because Labour are going to be largest party.
I am no longer losing over £10k in my annuity share punts (at the moment), I'm now just down £9.4k.
It's all coming right baby.
Watch out Reckless, I'm on a roll!
This crossed my mind when you made reference to your CT bill not being paid yet this morning. Hopefully you have some other, more successful, investments. George needs the money!
George isn't doing my personal punts any favours BUT he's ensuring my business has never busier with all the pension changes!
Eh? Logic failure in your post - so the Liberal Left don't tell everyone else about how to live their lives? Embracing loads of things that others don't like foisted on them?
I don't know the areas very well nowadays, but had it as my patch as a regional manager back in the early 90s. Well hard in many places, especially Gillingham.
Labour 50-1 is the story. What has happened to the leftish vote in Kent?
I still can't figure out Labour giving up on a big swathe of turf that has recently been their own.
Kent's a socially conservative sort of place, on both the left and right of politics. Millipede and his right-on Primrose Hill chums - to quote Morrissey - say nothing to them about their lives. Why UKIP are a big force in East Kent and the Medway Towns (which is "where you take northerners when they say southerners are soft").
There is nothing much good about social conservatism, which is essentially telling others how to live their lives. The Kentish are welcome to it
There will be no referendum. We are not going to destabilise the UK for years merely to ask a question to which we already know the answer. I am euroagnostic but the idea we should or would vote to leave is so preposterous I am amazed that otherwise intellegent people even countenance it.
The polls have it 50/50.. how could someone who has no real view takes such a closed minded position?
On the Scottish question, Dave has settled it for a generation now.. whatever the SNP says, and the SNP has got 80,000 new members and is in great shape. It cost Salmond his job but well that is politics.
Fair play to both Dave and Alex for putting their necks on the block (Dave would have probably gone in a YES vote) and asking the question and getting the answer.
Progressives think they are sooo modern but they are just old fashioned authoritarians wearing different clothes with the addition of blinkers.
Control is central to the everyone on the left. Take Climate change. It isn;t about the climate, its about controlling the behaviour of others via self appointed authority.
Luckily it comes with a fair dollop of smugness. The same smugness of those who just know they are right. And are intolerant of any other views.
The Times survey graphic was mentioned upthread. The sample size was 30k [about 47 per seat one poster noted] - then a load of other social/demographic factors applied. One can argue about the resulting sample size vs the conclusions.
Most of their readers have concluded that:
- the sample is too small to be valid - asking immigrants in K&C if they approve of immigration is daft - more of the same/repeat
So the book that the various academics are looking to push here doesn't look like a stocking filler.
In today's Yougov poll 40% want to remain in the EU, 39% want to leave. Voters in England and Wales are slightly in favour of leaving, voters in Scotland in favour of staying. If it's that close, Northern Ireland might tip the scale in favour of leaving.
There's no chance we would vote to leave, especially on those numbers. The idea that we would vote Yes to leave the EU exists only as wild europhobe fantasy.
"No chance" seems a bold claim when there's only 1% in it either way.
The Scottish Independence campaign finished on 45%, despite polls giving them 30-35%, prior to the start of the campaign.
What is interesting, is that people who have never voted in their lives, are now deciding it is time to start taking an interest in how they are governed.
This causing a lot of the opinion pollsters severe problems, how to balance out the voters who voted previously, those that have changed then add in all those newcomers and then take a guess on actually how many will put a cross on that piece of paper.Which is what happened in Scotland. Previously, it would have been considered lucky to get more than 70% of the electorate to vote, in the referendum it went to 85% of the electorate (84.9% if you want to be pedantic, not that any one on this site would ever be that ;^)
I believe that most of the parties concerned had originally thought that getting a 60% turnout would have been an achievement - and of that, 50% + 1 of the votes cast would have been more than enough for Alec Salmond to have declared it to be the sovereign will of Scotland to be independant.
UKIP and SNP (85k membership now) are now considered viable alternatives to the NOTA major established party choices. Even the Greens are showing an massive increase in their membership. While the memberships of the Tories, Labour and the LibDems are slipping off faster than s**t on a shovel
Correct my maths if needed but i work out the average point of those figures to come to something like;
Lab: 30% Con: 27% UKIP: 23% LD: 10% Green: 9%
Perhaps not a bad prediction?
The root ComRes numbers were:
Lab 34% Con 31% UKIP 19% LD 7% Green 4%
But your mid-point numbers look a lot more like their 'prompt for UKIP' poll, which is encouraging!
I'm not sure how seriously to take these figures, TBH. How was the question worded? They seem like 2nd order derivative voting intention questions to me. Effectively, "if there were a general election tomorrow, would you seriously consider voting for the following?"
Besides which, they might not pick up all prospective voters. I.e. there might be voters who wouldn't seriously consider voting 'Conservative', but would consider voting for David Cameron as PM to stop Ed Miliband.
The PSBR figures are disappointing, I don't think that can be disputed. It should be a major concern for any political party which thinks they might have a role in government after May that exceptional growth is simply not producing the additional taxes that might be expected. It strongly suggests that deficit reduction is going to be harder, involving more tax increases and more cuts in public spending than had been hoped.
So why are they so much worse given growth well north of 3%?
Firstly, I think the government has overreached itself with increases in personal allowances. Not enough people are paying into the pot any more and a vastly disproportionate number of the newly employed are not paying in at all.
Secondly, this increase in low paid employment combined with policies focused on making work pay has meant that many of the newly employed are getting more benefits from being employed than they got when they were unemployed.
Thirdly, the increase in low paid employment has been so massive that it is reducing the average increase in wages across the economy. Whilst many in work are in fact doing better the overall average is falling in real terms.
Fourthly, other revenues, such as North Sea oil, have disappointed.
Of course if the revisals had not been made to last year's figures reducing the deficit by over £14 bn we would actually be doing marginally better than last year rather than worse. But we are simply not managing to rebalance our economy in the way we need to. No doubt Ed Balls will be announcing another round of cuts in spending after the election in the next week or two to compensate.
I am unable to access the data presently, but virtually all the YTD issue as of last month was the greatly decreased revenue stream from APF payouts and dividends. It's a ballpark number of £15billion, if I remember correctly.
The income tax stuff in the papers is largely nonsense.
April and May receipts were massively distorted on the up side last year by the 45p tax change. The positive sting in the tail for Osborne is that all the self assessment revenue that was manipulated the same way gets paid January 2015.
ONS also have a habit of significantly overstating problems on initial data. They casually knocked £1.3 billion off last year's deficit today.
The deficit usually ends up billions below what they initially forecast once data flows in.
ISIS have stoned to death a woman for adultery, and filmed it (of course). I won't link directly to the very harrowing video, but be warned this report contains a version, embedded.
It is particularly disturbing because the woman is lectured by a smug, bearded executioner - acting up for the camera. She is told she must accept her fate; the condemned woman's father then refuses her pleas for forgiveness, and leads her to the death pit where she screams as the first rocks rain down.
Just awful.
The report also says another woman was stoned to death by ISIS when "her new husband discovered she was not a virgin".
And this is the same ISIS that the NUS will not condemn, because that might be "Islamophobic."
It's clear that ISIS have now mutated into something purely evil: why else would they post videos like this? They WANT to terrorise, and they WANT to attract psychotic recruits who are turned on by this stuff. They are a viral form of Satanism, which spreads through social media.
The tragedy of our times.
The left and the PC brigade have so indoctrinated and poisoned political discourse that anything negative about other cultures (the more non-white/Christian [Judaism doesn´t even figure] the better), be it their music, food, child abuse or stoning is totally off the pale. Lest it be considered in any way "wacist".
Progressives think they are sooo modern but they are just old fashioned authoritarians wearing different clothes with the addition of blinkers.
Control is central to the everyone on the left. Take Climate change. It isn;t about the climate, its about controlling the behaviour of others via self appointed authority.
Luckily it comes with a fair dollop of smugness. The same smugness of those who just know they are right. And are intolerant of any other views.
The Labour party exists to make it illegal to say "It's a free country, I'll say what I like"; "I'm entitled to my opinion"; or "Nice one Cyril". All three are things you used to hear quite often, but you don't any more.
The acceptable versions are "You'll say what I like" and "You're entitled to my opinion".
Comments
http://www.theyworkforyou.com/debates/?id=2009-10-13c.166.0&s=open+primaries+speaker:11621#g166.2
I keep forgetting that some on PB think "geography" is about Britain's former empire.
If you lived in Bala, which hospital would you choose for major surgery, Cardiff, or Liverpool?
Poor Douglas Carswell look like complete and utter scumbag if he condoned such an action.
The whining from Kippers could be harnessed into an energy source to end our dependency on foreign and Scottish oil.
Ignore the Daily Mail FFS
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/20/ukip-does-deal-with-far-right-to-save-european-grouping
"Ukip has struck a deal with a Polish MEP whose far-right party leader casually uses racial slurs and questions the Holocaust following fears that its grouping in Europe would lose millions of pounds in taxpayers’ funds."
Further reason to ignore Gordon Brown.
Gordon Brown, however, was smiled upon as no other politician had ever been. The two men developed a strange friendship, involving meals together and walks in the park, which one Mail columnist described to me as “the attraction of the two weirdest boys in the playground”. Brown, Dacre told Hagerty, was “touched by the mantle of greatness . . . he is a genuinely good man . . . a compassionate man . . . an original thinker . . . of enormous willpower and courage”.
At a Savoy Hotel event to celebrate Dacre’s first ten years as editor, Brown was almost equally effusive, describing the Mail editor as showing “great personal warmth and kindness . . . as well as great journalistic skill”.
“We tried to tell Dacre,” says a former Mail political reporter, “that Brown was not a very good chancellor and the economy would implode eventually. But frankly, Dacre has poor political judgement. They were united by a mutual hatred of Blair. Both are social conservatives; they’re both suspicious of foreigners; they both have a kind of Presbyterian morality. Dacre would say that Brown believes in work. It’s typical of him that he seizes on a single word as the key to his understanding of someone else.”
http://www.newstatesman.com/media/2013/12/man-who-hates-liberal-britain
What a lovely chap
In July, he declared in English that the minimum wage should be “destroyed” and said that “four million n*ggers” lost their jobs in the US as a result of President John F Kennedy signing a bill on the minimum wage in 1961.
He went on to claim that 20 million young Europeans were being treated as “negroes” as a result of the minimum wage. He refused to apologise and was fined 10 days of allowances for his comments.
Incidentally I am not so sure the two candidates are that similar. Anna Firth describes herself as a traditional conservative whereas Kelly Tolhurst has some views that are not in the Conservative mainstream unless you are Baroness Warsi. Anna comes from Sevenoaks and is a well spoken barrister who can apparently project her voice remarkably well. She was in the running as candidate for Thanet South so in that sense she has "been around". She is also a married mother of three whereas Kelly I think has no children, is a local business woman (daughter of a boat builder) and speaks in the Medway vernacular. Kelly is new to the parliamentary candidate selection process and as such might stand a better chance of being chosen via a primary contest than with a vote by local Tory members. She has attracted the more flak of the two especially over her role as a local councillor. Of course that simply may be because Ukip sense Kelly might present the slightly greater threat to Reckless's chances.
"First minister Carwyn Jones said: 'To suggest that the NHS in Wales is somehow in every way in a more difficult state than in England is quite simply wrong.' Mr Jones admitted he had not read the Daily Mail's exposure of failings in the Welsh NHS before dismissing the investigation out of hand."
In 2011 MP Pentti Oinonen declined an invitation to the presidential Independence Day ball, citing his aversion to seeing same-sex couples dance.
We can play this game with every party grouping. The truth is that plenty of European nations have politics that are very unpleasant to those in the more decent UK. The obvious lesson is that we shouldn't politically integrate with such countries.
Even in, I expect authorised, leaks the BND have accepted that the BUK system that shot down MH17 was not supplied by Russia.
That said no evidence has been presented to the public, satellite imagery, blackbox recordings, recordings between pilots and ATC etc. Just even the narrative being presented has been changed, perhaps reflecting the need for an upcoming bailout of Ukraine and the effect sanctions are having on Germany's economy.
So why are they so much worse given growth well north of 3%?
Firstly, I think the government has overreached itself with increases in personal allowances. Not enough people are paying into the pot any more and a vastly disproportionate number of the newly employed are not paying in at all.
Secondly, this increase in low paid employment combined with policies focused on making work pay has meant that many of the newly employed are getting more benefits from being employed than they got when they were unemployed.
Thirdly, the increase in low paid employment has been so massive that it is reducing the average increase in wages across the economy. Whilst many in work are in fact doing better the overall average is falling in real terms.
Fourthly, other revenues, such as North Sea oil, have disappointed.
Of course if the revisals had not been made to last year's figures reducing the deficit by over £14 bn we would actually be doing marginally better than last year rather than worse. But we are simply not managing to rebalance our economy in the way we need to. No doubt Ed Balls will be announcing another round of cuts in spending after the election in the next week or two to compensate.
"NIGEL Farage has revealed that the UK Independence Party’s general election strategy will be significantly swayed by its success or failure in the South Yorkshire police and crime commissioner by-election."
http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/main-topics/politics/ukip-on-the-march-in-the-north-farage-1-6905686
That said, I can't see Dore being very fertile for UKIP.
And as one of your fellow Kippers said on here, the UKIP candidate isn't very impressive, if he's representative, you can see why South Yorkshire police are held in such low regard.
In the EP he gets fined.
Here the political commissars and thought police would have thrown him in jail.
Not surprised both are throwing a lot of effort into your seat.
I'd still expect Balls to increase his majority fairly easily. UKIP are on the up and the Conservatives are in office. The only potential pitfall for Balls here is if UKIP take more Labour sorts than Conservatives.
As I've mentioned before, I may write a piece entitled Ed Balls - My Part In His Downfall if he loses.
"Were you up for Balls Darling?"
Definitely warrants a thread, it is relevant to almost everything we discuss on here, and has massive betting implications for those who rely on Labours 35%/2010 LD strategy for next May
http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/opinion-polls/
http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/wp-content/uploads/sites/100/2013/07/Wales10.pdf
I expect Balls to hold, as the tory candidate isn't going to be Tony Calvert, who was highly impressive
It'd depend on a few things:
how far from the vote it was
whether it was similar to other polls
how close to Labour the UKIP vote was
what the UKIP candidate was like
My priority is axing Balls. Voting UKIP, if I believe they stood the best chance of getting rid of him, would not be difficult.
I don't think that's a likely occurrence, though.
Edited extra bit: cheers for the answer, Mr. Eagles.
Bit of hand wringing from Simon Jenkins to kick the day off.
It would also foster a healthier and saner property market, but somehow I think no Political Leader has the cojones to suggest it.
To vote Lib Dem or not to vote Lib Dem might be the most important here as I think their deposit will be on a knife edge.
Those that gain the most from our society should pay the most to sustain it but that does not mean that we do not need more to contribute. The talk of tax cuts at the Tory conference was irresponsible in my view. The tax take needs to increase by 2-3% of GDP while government spending is also reduced by 2-3% of GDP. That is the scale of the problem and our political classes are not facing up to it on either side of the P&L.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-29705876
The BBC did exactly this yesterday on R5. A big attack on staffing, morale etc, and there was one tiny mention after clearly people we calling in saying that the individuals making the claims of terrible working conditions where...said quickly La....la la la la. bour...run, now moving on we have a UNISON rep to do some more government bashing.
The Scottish Independence campaign finished on 45%, despite polls giving them 30-35%, prior to the start of the campaign.
Plus in the overall scheme of things the revisals are quite small. We still have a major problem.
Lab 17-43%
Con 15-39%
UKIP 12-34%
Green 1-18%
LD 3-17%
http://www.comres.co.uk/poll/1293/sunday-mirror-independent-on-sunday-poll.htm
Mrs Thatcher believed in spending what we could afford. It proved reasonably popular at the time.
http://www.slate.com/articles/business/moneybox/2014/01/amazon_earnings_how_jeff_bezos_gets_investors_to_believe_in_him.html
Alternatively spend less.
International Development Aid - should be canned straight away.
Whenever there is an emergency overseas there is always some money down the back of the sofa.
The state spends £730b+ a year. 1% of that is £7b. Any company could find a 1% saving if pushed. The state can´t. Too many mouths at the trough.
In 2004 the government spent £455b. In ten years we have had an increase of 60%. Inflation in the same period was say 33%. That´s £126b difference and the deficit gone. Just like that.
I am no longer losing over £10k in my annuity share punts (at the moment), I'm now just down £9.4k.
It's all coming right baby.
Watch out Reckless, I'm on a roll!
I don't know the areas very well nowadays, but had it as my patch as a regional manager back in the early 90s. Well hard in many places, especially Gillingham.
Lab: 30%
Con: 27%
UKIP: 23%
LD: 10%
Green: 9%
Perhaps not a bad prediction?
(When I used to visit my parents, my mother would complain that the amount of washing up increased by 50% when I arrived, but only reduced by 33% when I left.)
There will be no referendum. We are not going to destabilise the UK for years merely to ask a question to which we already know the answer. I am euroagnostic but the idea we should or would vote to leave is so preposterous I am amazed that otherwise intellegent people even countenance it.
Edited extra bit: hmm. A more sustainable/regular idea has occurred to me. I might give it a go on my blog, see what people think (if it even works, it might not) and proceeding accordingly.
Assuming I have some spare time. Got another, unrelated, project I want to try and start.
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2014/10/john-kasich-just-got-extremely-real-on-obamacare.html
"[Repeal is] not gonna happen," Kasich told The Associated Press during a recent re-election campaign swing.
"The opposition to it was really either political or ideological," the Republican governor added. "I don't think that holds water against real flesh and blood, and real improvements in people's lives."
Lab 34%
Con 31%
UKIP 19%
LD 7%
Green 4%
But your mid-point numbers look a lot more like their 'prompt for UKIP' poll, which is encouraging!
They also seem to be far more hostile to anyone who disagrees with them than people they consider "bigots"
Control is central to the everyone on the left. Take Climate change. It isn;t about the climate, its about controlling the behaviour of others via self appointed authority.
But the idea that it is racist if a singer does a bit of a carribean accent on a calypso style song is almost up there with Ed Miliband's nonsense re Lord Freud
If a Black West Indian sang a mod style song in a London accent I wouldn't mind at all, let alone the fact that there are many black Londoners, and white West Indians
So it is the "wacist" screamers who judge/divide things on colour.. I thought the point was there was no difference?
By these standards we should question anyone who isn't English reading Shakespearean dialogue in an English accent
Why on earth would you want to invite even the merest hint of racism when enough people think you are racist to start with?
Beyond me. Either
a) very very clever; or
b) very very well, you know...
"There is nothing much good about social conservatism, which is essentially telling others how to live their lives."
Isn't that what the Labour party exists for? And political correctness tells them what to think?
Especially when the premise is wrong in the first place
What people who criticise things like this are saying is "Stick to your own"
In attempting to be clever and right on they are revealing their own prejudices
Does everyone have to sing in their natural accent? A lot of songs would sound very different if that were the case
It ain't a loss until you sell...
How bizarre.
Here's a song with the same title...by OMC [I've just broken 2000 on my favourites playlist and wonder what on Earth those with a 10000 song iPod stuck on theirs!]
Fair play to both Dave and Alex for putting their necks on the block (Dave would have probably gone in a YES vote) and asking the question and getting the answer.
Labour simply don't trust the people however.
Luckily it comes with a fair dollop of smugness. The same smugness of those who just know they are right. And are intolerant of any other views.
Most of their readers have concluded that:
- the sample is too small to be valid
- asking immigrants in K&C if they approve of immigration is daft
- more of the same/repeat
So the book that the various academics are looking to push here doesn't look like a stocking filler.
This causing a lot of the opinion pollsters severe problems, how to balance out the voters who voted previously, those that have changed then add in all those newcomers and then take a guess on actually how many will put a cross on that piece of paper.Which is what happened in Scotland. Previously, it would have been considered lucky to get more than 70% of the electorate to vote, in the referendum it went to 85% of the electorate (84.9% if you want to be pedantic, not that any one on this site would ever be that ;^)
I believe that most of the parties concerned had originally thought that getting a 60% turnout would have been an achievement - and of that, 50% + 1 of the votes cast would have been more than enough for Alec Salmond to have declared it to be the sovereign will of Scotland to be independant.
UKIP and SNP (85k membership now) are now considered viable alternatives to the NOTA major established party choices. Even the Greens are showing an massive increase in their membership. While the memberships of the Tories, Labour and the LibDems are slipping off faster than s**t on a shovel
Besides which, they might not pick up all prospective voters. I.e. there might be voters who wouldn't seriously consider voting 'Conservative', but would consider voting for David Cameron as PM to stop Ed Miliband.
The income tax stuff in the papers is largely nonsense.
April and May receipts were massively distorted on the up side last year by the 45p tax change. The positive sting in the tail for Osborne is that all the self assessment revenue that was manipulated the same way gets paid January 2015.
ONS also have a habit of significantly overstating problems on initial data. They casually knocked £1.3 billion off last year's deficit today.
The deficit usually ends up billions below what they initially forecast once data flows in.
Some of their work isn't fit for purpose.
The left and the PC brigade have so indoctrinated and poisoned political discourse that anything negative about other cultures (the more non-white/Christian [Judaism doesn´t even figure] the better), be it their music, food, child abuse or stoning is totally off the pale. Lest it be considered in any way "wacist".
The acceptable versions are "You'll say what I like" and "You're entitled to my opinion".