I really can't see how UKIP could fail to win this. Have people seen UKIP's results in Kent in the European elections?
The Tories on here have mistaken their own hatred for Reckless for the public's opinion.
The UKIP Euro results are very similar to Clacton The Tories smeared Carswell until they knew he would win They are now pretending they didn't smear Carswell and "Reckless is different" UKIPs chances of winning this are boosted last weeks by election results
To be honest, if it wasn't for being taken in by listening to Tories on here say how much they hate Reckless, I would predict a 10-15 point UKIP win
There is no polling or statistical reason for thinking the Tories will win, just that the Tories REALLY want to win
So what?
I said UKIP would piss up in Clacton when Carswell defected and was told I was wrong.. Lots of Tories said the value bet was the Tories, or even Labour at 4/1!!
My gut instinct is an easy UKIP win... double figures
OK, let's apply the same kind of guesstimate as last time.
Rochester & Strood 2010: Con 49.2%, Lab 28.5%, LD 16%, English Democrats 4.5%, Green 1.5%.
LD are going to collapse, Lab are going to fall back considerably. Let's assume Lab go down to 18%, LD to 3%. I'm going to allocate those lost Lab voters equally to Tory + UKIP as they tactically vote against each other. I'm going to do the same for the lost LibDems except slightly more LibDems will go Tory, especially if it's a nice local girl like Cllr Tolhurst, who won't scare the horses. So 5%+7% to the Tory tally, 5%+6% to the UKIP tally. I'm also going to give all the English Democrats to Reckless (he's welcome to them!). So far 12% Tory, 16% UKIP.
Now the big one. In Clacton I guessed two-thirds for Carswell, one third staying loyally blue. There's no way it's going to be anything like that this time, with Reckless much less popular and regarded as unpleasantly disloyal in a way Carswell wasn't, and with the Tories throwing the kitchen sink at it. I'm going to guesstimate the shares will be the other way round. That's 33% for the Tories and 16% for UKIP.
Net guesstimate:
Con 45% UKIP 32% Lab 18% Other 5%
If you assume the Tory vote splitting 50-50, it ends up with Con 37% UKIP 40%.
My conclusion is that UKIP 30% to 35% at 6/1 is an absolute snip, but 35-40% and 40% to 45% are reasonable bets too. I'd be amazed if the winner is not one of those three.
Also note that you can get 3/1 (or even more if you're patient on Betfair) on the Tories winning. If the Tories win UKIP will be in the 30% to 40% range. A combination bet of the Tories winning outright and UKIP on 40% to 45% would seem to cover most of the probability distribution.
How are you split between Reality and Outright Denial ?
Meanwhile Dave demonstrates how local the primary is and how rich the Tories are by sending a letter to every constituent in Rochester & Strood (& he claims UKIP are trying to turn the by election into a national media circus)
There is also a thing or two that people forget and that is candidates. There hasn't been any anti-UKIP tactical vote before or since Newark so it strengthens my argument that it was an anti-Helmer vote rather that an anti-UKIP vote, Reckless isn't Helmer, second the Tories have a huge men problem not a women problem in the constituency. Almost half of all men in Rochester are voting UKIP according to the opinion poll.
I really can't see how UKIP could fail to win this. Have people seen UKIP's results in Kent in the European elections?
The Tories on here have mistaken their own hatred for Reckless for the public's opinion.
The UKIP Euro results are very similar to Clacton The Tories smeared Carswell until they knew he would win They are now pretending they didn't smear Carswell and "Reckless is different" UKIPs chances of winning this are boosted last weeks by election results
To be honest, if it wasn't for being taken in by listening to Tories on here say how much they hate Reckless, I would predict a 10-15 point UKIP win
There is no polling or statistical reason for thinking the Tories will win, just that the Tories REALLY want to win
So what?
I said UKIP would piss up in Clacton when Carswell defected and was told I was wrong.. Lots of Tories said the value bet was the Tories, or even Labour at 4/1!!
My gut instinct is an easy UKIP win... double figures
First Survation Poll in Clacton had Carswell 44% ahead, First Survation poll in R&S had Reckless ahead by 9%.
As with Newark, Survation had UKIP too high, and the Tories too low.
On a 44% lead, that's nothing, on a 9%, that means it is game on.
FWIW BBC Have your Say on EVEL extremely bad for labour, ALL the "most popular" comments are slamming them for their anti-democratic stance in opposing it.
Which in my view is entirely fair enough. They'll be arguing against equal constituency sizes next...
I really can't see how UKIP could fail to win this. Have people seen UKIP's results in Kent in the European elections?
The Tories on here have mistaken their own hatred for Reckless for the public's opinion.
The UKIP Euro results are very similar to Clacton The Tories smeared Carswell until they knew he would win They are now pretending they didn't smear Carswell and "Reckless is different" UKIPs chances of winning this are boosted last weeks by election results
To be honest, if it wasn't for being taken in by listening to Tories on here say how much they hate Reckless, I would predict a 10-15 point UKIP win
There is no polling or statistical reason for thinking the Tories will win, just that the Tories REALLY want to win
So what?
I said UKIP would piss up in Clacton when Carswell defected and was told I was wrong.. Lots of Tories said the value bet was the Tories, or even Labour at 4/1!!
My gut instinct is an easy UKIP win... double figures
Erm … I just posted that I thought it was an astonishing post by Richard. I too would make Reckless favourite.
However, I think you're over-egging it a bit. You think he will poll more than the 9% opinion poll lead he had before the Conservatives selected their candidate and announced, unlike Clacton, that they will throw the kitchen sink at this one? Remember they gave up Clacton from the word go. Reckless is also nowhere near as popular as Carswell.
But 50-75% of Carswell's vote share Richard? Wow, I hope you're right.
I really can't see how UKIP could fail to win this. Have people seen UKIP's results in Kent in the European elections?
The Tories on here have mistaken their own hatred for Reckless for the public's opinion.
The UKIP Euro results are very similar to Clacton The Tories smeared Carswell until they knew he would win They are now pretending they didn't smear Carswell and "Reckless is different" UKIPs chances of winning this are boosted last weeks by election results
To be honest, if it wasn't for being taken in by listening to Tories on here say how much they hate Reckless, I would predict a 10-15 point UKIP win
There is no polling or statistical reason for thinking the Tories will win, just that the Tories REALLY want to win
So what?
I said UKIP would piss up in Clacton when Carswell defected and was told I was wrong.. Lots of Tories said the value bet was the Tories, or even Labour at 4/1!!
My gut instinct is an easy UKIP win... double figures
First Survation Poll in Clacton had Carswell 44%, First Survation poll in R&S had Reckless ahead by 9%.
As with Newark, Survation had UKIP too high, and the Tories too low.
On a 44% lead, that's nothing, on a 9%, that means it is game on.
I disagree, the constituency polls where accurate in Clacton.
OK, let's apply the same kind of guesstimate as last time.
Rochester & Strood 2010: Con 49.2%, Lab 28.5%, LD 16%, English Democrats 4.5%, Green 1.5%.
LD are going to collapse, Lab are going to fall back considerably. Let's assume Lab go down to 18%, LD to 3%. I'm going to allocate those lost Lab voters equally to Tory + UKIP as they tactically vote against each other. I'm going to do the same for the lost LibDems except slightly more LibDems will go Tory, especially if it's a nice local girl like Cllr Tolhurst, who won't scare the horses. So 5%+7% to the Tory tally, 5%+6% to the UKIP tally. I'm also going to give all the English Democrats to Reckless (he's welcome to them!). So far 12% Tory, 16% UKIP.
Now the big one. In Clacton I guessed two-thirds for Carswell, one third staying loyally blue. There's no way it's going to be anything like that this time, with Reckless much less popular and regarded as unpleasantly disloyal in a way Carswell wasn't, and with the Tories throwing the kitchen sink at it. I'm going to guesstimate the shares will be the other way round. That's 33% for the Tories and 16% for UKIP.
Net guesstimate:
Con 45% UKIP 32% Lab 18% Other 5%
If you assume the Tory vote splitting 50-50, it ends up with Con 37% UKIP 40%.
My conclusion is that UKIP 30% to 35% at 6/1 is an absolute snip, but 35-40% and 40% to 45% are reasonable bets too. I'd be amazed if the winner is not one of those three.
Also note that you can get 3/1 (or even more if you're patient on Betfair) on the Tories winning. If the Tories win UKIP will be in the 30% to 40% range. A combination bet of the Tories winning outright and UKIP on 40% to 45% would seem to cover most of the probability distribution.
How are you split between Reality and Outright Denial ?
Well this is the man who as late as yesterday was insisting Lansley reforms were good for the NHS so I guess 1% reality 99% denial
I really can't see how UKIP could fail to win this. Have people seen UKIP's results in Kent in the European elections?
The Tories on here have mistaken their own hatred for Reckless for the public's opinion.
The UKIP Euro results are very similar to Clacton The Tories smeared Carswell until they knew he would win They are now pretending they didn't smear Carswell and "Reckless is different" UKIPs chances of winning this are boosted last weeks by election results
To be honest, if it wasn't for being taken in by listening to Tories on here say how much they hate Reckless, I would predict a 10-15 point UKIP win
There is no polling or statistical reason for thinking the Tories will win, just that the Tories REALLY want to win
So what?
I said UKIP would piss up in Clacton when Carswell defected and was told I was wrong.. Lots of Tories said the value bet was the Tories, or even Labour at 4/1!!
My gut instinct is an easy UKIP win... double figures
First Survation Poll in Clacton had Carswell 44% ahead, First Survation poll in R&S had Reckless ahead by 9%.
As with Newark, Survation had UKIP too high, and the Tories too low.
On a 44% lead, that's nothing, on a 9%, that means it is game on.
I really can't see how UKIP could fail to win this. Have people seen UKIP's results in Kent in the European elections?
The Tories on here have mistaken their own hatred for Reckless for the public's opinion.
The UKIP Euro results are very similar to Clacton The Tories smeared Carswell until they knew he would win They are now pretending they didn't smear Carswell and "Reckless is different" UKIPs chances of winning this are boosted last weeks by election results
To be honest, if it wasn't for being taken in by listening to Tories on here say how much they hate Reckless, I would predict a 10-15 point UKIP win
There is no polling or statistical reason for thinking the Tories will win, just that the Tories REALLY want to win
So what?
I said UKIP would piss up in Clacton when Carswell defected and was told I was wrong.. Lots of Tories said the value bet was the Tories, or even Labour at 4/1!!
My gut instinct is an easy UKIP win... double figures
First Survation Poll in Clacton had Carswell 44% ahead, First Survation poll in R&S had Reckless ahead by 9%.
As with Newark, Survation had UKIP too high, and the Tories too low.
On a 44% lead, that's nothing, on a 9%, that means it is game on.
I think you forgot to mention that the Tories had an 8 point lead in the Newark poll which made it somewhat different to the Rochester poll.
More "three wise monkeys"? That is the real scandal of child abuse. No one wants to believe it is going on, and it is not specific to one party or community.
"Child abuse inquiry to examine claims John Major’s government failed to act"
I really can't see how UKIP could fail to win this. Have people seen UKIP's results in Kent in the European elections?
The Tories on here have mistaken their own hatred for Reckless for the public's opinion.
The UKIP Euro results are very similar to Clacton The Tories smeared Carswell until they knew he would win They are now pretending they didn't smear Carswell and "Reckless is different" UKIPs chances of winning this are boosted last weeks by election results
To be honest, if it wasn't for being taken in by listening to Tories on here say how much they hate Reckless, I would predict a 10-15 point UKIP win
There is no polling or statistical reason for thinking the Tories will win, just that the Tories REALLY want to win
So what?
I said UKIP would piss up in Clacton when Carswell defected and was told I was wrong.. Lots of Tories said the value bet was the Tories, or even Labour at 4/1!!
My gut instinct is an easy UKIP win... double figures
Erm … I just posted that I thought it was an astonishing post by Richard. I too would make Reckless favourite.
However, I think you're over-egging it a bit. You think he will poll more than the 9% opinion poll lead he had before the Conservatives selected their candidate and announced, unlike Clacton, that they will throw the kitchen sink at this one? Remember they gave up Clacton from the word go. Reckless is also nowhere near as popular as Carswell.
But 50-75% of Carswell's vote share Richard? Wow, I hope you're right.
The 9% opinion poll lead was also before last weeks two results which have made UKIP a much more respectable choice.
The Tory candidate will be one of two people no one has heard of. Might as well be still unannounced
I really can't see how UKIP could fail to win this. Have people seen UKIP's results in Kent in the European elections?
The Tories on here have mistaken their own hatred for Reckless for the public's opinion.
The UKIP Euro results are very similar to Clacton The Tories smeared Carswell until they knew he would win They are now pretending they didn't smear Carswell and "Reckless is different" UKIPs chances of winning this are boosted last weeks by election results
To be honest, if it wasn't for being taken in by listening to Tories on here say how much they hate Reckless, I would predict a 10-15 point UKIP win
There is no polling or statistical reason for thinking the Tories will win, just that the Tories REALLY want to win
So what?
I said UKIP would piss up in Clacton when Carswell defected and was told I was wrong.. Lots of Tories said the value bet was the Tories, or even Labour at 4/1!!
My gut instinct is an easy UKIP win... double figures
First Survation Poll in Clacton had Carswell 44% ahead, First Survation poll in R&S had Reckless ahead by 9%.
As with Newark, Survation had UKIP too high, and the Tories too low.
On a 44% lead, that's nothing, on a 9%, that means it is game on.
I think you forgot to mention that the Tories had an 8 point lead in the Newark poll which made it somewhat different to the Rochester poll.
That reaffirms my point.
Survation because of their methodology have UKIP too high and the Tories too low.
I really can't see how UKIP could fail to win this. Have people seen UKIP's results in Kent in the European elections?
The Tories on here have mistaken their own hatred for Reckless for the public's opinion.
The UKIP Euro results are very similar to Clacton The Tories smeared Carswell until they knew he would win They are now pretending they didn't smear Carswell and "Reckless is different" UKIPs chances of winning this are boosted last weeks by election results
To be honest, if it wasn't for being taken in by listening to Tories on here say how much they hate Reckless, I would predict a 10-15 point UKIP win
There is no polling or statistical reason for thinking the Tories will win, just that the Tories REALLY want to win
So what?
I said UKIP would piss up in Clacton when Carswell defected and was told I was wrong.. Lots of Tories said the value bet was the Tories, or even Labour at 4/1!!
My gut instinct is an easy UKIP win... double figures
First Survation Poll in Clacton had Carswell 44% ahead, First Survation poll in R&S had Reckless ahead by 9%.
As with Newark, Survation had UKIP too high, and the Tories too low.
On a 44% lead, that's nothing, on a 9%, that means it is game on.
OTOH, Survation understated UKIP by 8% in Heywood & Middleton.
This thread is an example of why hatred leads to strategic error. The Tory party leadership hates UKIP, we all know it. In Rochester that hatred has lead to campaign errors, some errors that where seen in Clacton too:
1. Picking a female candidate when you have a men problem. 2. Sending a letter from the PM to all constituents to vote for the Tory candidate when they aspire for Labour votes and ignoring the fact that UKIP voters hate his guts. 3. Thinking that people will think that Reckless is a monster from Mars if the Tory party says so, when he has been their MP for quite a while so they know him already. 4. Focusing too much on candidates rather that policies, see 1&3.
I really can't see how UKIP could fail to win this. Have people seen UKIP's results in Kent in the European elections?
The Tories on here have mistaken their own hatred for Reckless for the public's opinion.
The UKIP Euro results are very similar to Clacton The Tories smeared Carswell until they knew he would win They are now pretending they didn't smear Carswell and "Reckless is different" UKIPs chances of winning this are boosted last weeks by election results
To be honest, if it wasn't for being taken in by listening to Tories on here say how much they hate Reckless, I would predict a 10-15 point UKIP win
There is no polling or statistical reason for thinking the Tories will win, just that the Tories REALLY want to win
So what?
I said UKIP would piss up in Clacton when Carswell defected and was told I was wrong.. Lots of Tories said the value bet was the Tories, or even Labour at 4/1!!
My gut instinct is an easy UKIP win... double figures
First Survation Poll in Clacton had Carswell 44% ahead, First Survation poll in R&S had Reckless ahead by 9%.
As with Newark, Survation had UKIP too high, and the Tories too low.
On a 44% lead, that's nothing, on a 9%, that means it is game on.
I really can't see how UKIP could fail to win this. Have people seen UKIP's results in Kent in the European elections?
The Tories on here have mistaken their own hatred for Reckless for the public's opinion.
The UKIP Euro results are very similar to Clacton The Tories smeared Carswell until they knew he would win They are now pretending they didn't smear Carswell and "Reckless is different" UKIPs chances of winning this are boosted last weeks by election results
To be honest, if it wasn't for being taken in by listening to Tories on here say how much they hate Reckless, I would predict a 10-15 point UKIP win
There is no polling or statistical reason for thinking the Tories will win, just that the Tories REALLY want to win
So what?
I said UKIP would piss up in Clacton when Carswell defected and was told I was wrong.. Lots of Tories said the value bet was the Tories, or even Labour at 4/1!!
My gut instinct is an easy UKIP win... double figures
First Survation Poll in Clacton had Carswell 44% ahead, First Survation poll in R&S had Reckless ahead by 9%.
As with Newark, Survation had UKIP too high, and the Tories too low.
On a 44% lead, that's nothing, on a 9%, that means it is game on.
I think you forgot to mention that the Tories had an 8 point lead in the Newark poll which made it somewhat different to the Rochester poll.
That reaffirms my point.
Survation because of their methodology have UKIP too high and the Tories too low.
If Survation are as wrong in Rochester as they were in Clacton, Reckless wins by 7.2%
I really can't see how UKIP could fail to win this. Have people seen UKIP's results in Kent in the European elections?
The Tories on here have mistaken their own hatred for Reckless for the public's opinion.
The UKIP Euro results are very similar to Clacton The Tories smeared Carswell until they knew he would win They are now pretending they didn't smear Carswell and "Reckless is different" UKIPs chances of winning this are boosted last weeks by election results
To be honest, if it wasn't for being taken in by listening to Tories on here say how much they hate Reckless, I would predict a 10-15 point UKIP win
There is no polling or statistical reason for thinking the Tories will win, just that the Tories REALLY want to win
So what?
I said UKIP would piss up in Clacton when Carswell defected and was told I was wrong.. Lots of Tories said the value bet was the Tories, or even Labour at 4/1!!
My gut instinct is an easy UKIP win... double figures
First Survation Poll in Clacton had Carswell 44% ahead, First Survation poll in R&S had Reckless ahead by 9%.
As with Newark, Survation had UKIP too high, and the Tories too low.
On a 44% lead, that's nothing, on a 9%, that means it is game on.
OTOH, Survation understated UKIP by 8% in Heywood & Middleton.
I think Lord Ashcroft explained it best, why he and Survation were so out on Heywood and Middleton.
This thread is an example of why hatred leads to strategic error. The Tory party leadership hates UKIP, we all know it. In Rochester that hatred has lead to campaign errors, some errors that where seen in Clacton too:
1. Picking a female candidate when you have a men problem. 2. Sending a letter from the PM to all constituents to vote for the Tory candidate when they aspire for Labour votes and ignoring the fact that UKIP voters hate his guts. 3. Thinking that people will think that Reckless is a monster from Mars if the Tory party says so, when he has been their MP for quite a while so they know him already. 4. Focusing too much on candidates rather that policies, see 1&3.
bet365 is committed to Responsible Gambling Gambling should be an enjoyable leisure activity. As a responsible gambling operator we'd like to remind you that we provide a range of options to help customers manage their account.
Information on Keeping Control Whilst the majority of people do gamble within their means, for some, gambling can become a problem. It may help you to keep control to remember the following:
Gambling should be entertaining and not seen as a way of making money.
I really can't see how UKIP could fail to win this. Have people seen UKIP's results in Kent in the European elections?
The Tories on here have mistaken their own hatred for Reckless for the public's opinion.
The UKIP Euro results are very similar to Clacton The Tories smeared Carswell until they knew he would win They are now pretending they didn't smear Carswell and "Reckless is different" UKIPs chances of winning this are boosted last weeks by election results
To be honest, if it wasn't for being taken in by listening to Tories on here say how much they hate Reckless, I would predict a 10-15 point UKIP win
There is no polling or statistical reason for thinking the Tories will win, just that the Tories REALLY want to win
So what?
I said UKIP would piss up in Clacton when Carswell defected and was told I was wrong.. Lots of Tories said the value bet was the Tories, or even Labour at 4/1!!
My gut instinct is an easy UKIP win... double figures
First Survation Poll in Clacton had Carswell 44% ahead, First Survation poll in R&S had Reckless ahead by 9%.
As with Newark, Survation had UKIP too high, and the Tories too low.
On a 44% lead, that's nothing, on a 9%, that means it is game on.
I will offer you the same bet
EVEN MONEY
I will take UKIP -5 You can have Tory +5
No thank you, I'm happy with my position in R&S
Me too
You don't think the Tories will win with a 5 point start?
bet365 is committed to Responsible Gambling Gambling should be an enjoyable leisure activity. As a responsible gambling operator we'd like to remind you that we provide a range of options to help customers manage their account.
Information on Keeping Control Whilst the majority of people do gamble within their means, for some, gambling can become a problem. It may help you to keep control to remember the following:
Gambling should be entertaining and not seen as a way of making money.
Bet365 are very very cool. At the very least they remind me how many days there are in the year.
But TSE is going to win this fir the Tories surely.
I go 45%/30%/20% same order as yourself but i think that result might also herald further defections.
I guess the kitchen sink strategy is designed to narrow the defeat and put off defectors
The kitchen sink strategy is now to avoid Cameron being ousted as leader. Which is another thing that goes into UKIP's favor, many people within the Tory party want to get rid of Cameron.
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Information on Keeping Control Whilst the majority of people do gamble within their means, for some, gambling can become a problem. It may help you to keep control to remember the following:
Gambling should be entertaining and not seen as a way of making money.
Stan James had the best terms and conditions on their site.
The Free Bet offer is not available to the following accounts and Stan James reserves the right to cancel an entry to the promotion, terminate any account and withhold any promotional benefits at any time and/ or take such other action as it deems appropriate in its absolute discretion, in particular but without limitation in respect of the following accounts:(i) accounts using Neteller or Skrill (Moneybookers) to fund their StanJames.com account; or(ii) accounts that Stan James deems in its absolute discretion to be unwanted and/ or unprofitable; or (iii) accounts that Stan James deems in its absolute discretion to be taking advantage of arbitrage opportunities.
I really can't see how UKIP could fail to win this. Have people seen UKIP's results in Kent in the European elections?
The Tories on here have mistaken their own hatred for Reckless for the public's opinion.
The UKIP Euro results are very similar to Clacton The Tories smeared Carswell until they knew he would win They are now pretending they didn't smear Carswell and "Reckless is different" UKIPs chances of winning this are boosted last weeks by election results
To be honest, if it wasn't for being taken in by listening to Tories on here say how much they hate Reckless, I would predict a 10-15 point UKIP win
There is no polling or statistical reason for thinking the Tories will win, just that the Tories REALLY want to win
So what?
I said UKIP would piss up in Clacton when Carswell defected and was told I was wrong.. Lots of Tories said the value bet was the Tories, or even Labour at 4/1!!
My gut instinct is an easy UKIP win... double figures
First Survation Poll in Clacton had Carswell 44% ahead, First Survation poll in R&S had Reckless ahead by 9%.
As with Newark, Survation had UKIP too high, and the Tories too low.
On a 44% lead, that's nothing, on a 9%, that means it is game on.
I will offer you the same bet
EVEN MONEY
I will take UKIP -5 You can have Tory +5
No thank you, I'm happy with my position in R&S
Me too
You don't think the Tories will win with a 5 point start?
I'd want more than evens, when I can get 3/1 on a Tory victory.
This thread is an example of why hatred leads to strategic error. The Tory party leadership hates UKIP, we all know it. In Rochester that hatred has lead to campaign errors, some errors that where seen in Clacton too:
1. Picking a female candidate when you have a men problem. 2. Sending a letter from the PM to all constituents to vote for the Tory candidate when they aspire for Labour votes and ignoring the fact that UKIP voters hate his guts. 3. Thinking that people will think that Reckless is a monster from Mars if the Tory party says so, when he has been their MP for quite a while so they know him already. 4. Focusing too much on candidates rather that policies, see 1&3.
Does ukip have any policies?
Apparently 70% of people in Rochester that vote UKIP do so because of their policies.
bet365 is committed to Responsible Gambling Gambling should be an enjoyable leisure activity. As a responsible gambling operator we'd like to remind you that we provide a range of options to help customers manage their account.
Information on Keeping Control Whilst the majority of people do gamble within their means, for some, gambling can become a problem. It may help you to keep control to remember the following:
Gambling should be entertaining and not seen as a way of making money.
Stan James had the best terms and conditions on their site.
The Free Bet offer is not available to the following accounts and Stan James reserves the right to cancel an entry to the promotion, terminate any account and withhold any promotional benefits at any time and/ or take such other action as it deems appropriate in its absolute discretion, in particular but without limitation in respect of the following accounts:(i) accounts using Neteller or Skrill (Moneybookers) to fund their StanJames.com account; or(ii) accounts that Stan James deems in its absolute discretion to be unwanted and/ or unprofitable; or (iii) accounts that Stan James deems in its absolute discretion to be taking advantage of arbitrage opportunities.
I never arbed ONCE with my Stan James account and it got shut down.
Love the conclusion, wise words we should all heed.
But the most valuable aspect of this table is to remind me to be careful. When others aren't confident that they know what's going on, I should not assume that I have any special insight
I really can't see how UKIP could fail to win this. Have people seen UKIP's results in Kent in the European elections?
The Tories on here have mistaken their own hatred for Reckless for the public's opinion.
The UKIP Euro results are very similar to Clacton The Tories smeared Carswell until they knew he would win They are now pretending they didn't smear Carswell and "Reckless is different" UKIPs chances of winning this are boosted last weeks by election results
To be honest, if it wasn't for being taken in by listening to Tories on here say how much they hate Reckless, I would predict a 10-15 point UKIP win
There is no polling or statistical reason for thinking the Tories will win, just that the Tories REALLY want to win
So what?
I said UKIP would piss up in Clacton when Carswell defected and was told I was wrong.. Lots of Tories said the value bet was the Tories, or even Labour at 4/1!!
My gut instinct is an easy UKIP win... double figures
First Survation Poll in Clacton had Carswell 44% ahead, First Survation poll in R&S had Reckless ahead by 9%.
As with Newark, Survation had UKIP too high, and the Tories too low.
On a 44% lead, that's nothing, on a 9%, that means it is game on.
I will offer you the same bet
EVEN MONEY
I will take UKIP -5 You can have Tory +5
No thank you, I'm happy with my position in R&S
Me too
You don't think the Tories will win with a 5 point start?
I'd want more than evens, when I can get 3/1 on a Tory victory.
Almost everywhere, the bookies and I don't give the Tories much of a chance really.
I really can't see how UKIP could fail to win this. Have people seen UKIP's results in Kent in the European elections?
The Tories on here have mistaken their own hatred for Reckless for the public's opinion.
The UKIP Euro results are very similar to Clacton The Tories smeared Carswell until they knew he would win They are now pretending they didn't smear Carswell and "Reckless is different" UKIPs chances of winning this are boosted last weeks by election results
To be honest, if it wasn't for being taken in by listening to Tories on here say how much they hate Reckless, I would predict a 10-15 point UKIP win
There is no polling or statistical reason for thinking the Tories will win, just that the Tories REALLY want to win
So what?
I said UKIP would piss up in Clacton when Carswell defected and was told I was wrong.. Lots of Tories said the value bet was the Tories, or even Labour at 4/1!!
My gut instinct is an easy UKIP win... double figures
First Survation Poll in Clacton had Carswell 44% ahead, First Survation poll in R&S had Reckless ahead by 9%.
As with Newark, Survation had UKIP too high, and the Tories too low.
On a 44% lead, that's nothing, on a 9%, that means it is game on.
I will offer you the same bet
EVEN MONEY
I will take UKIP -5 You can have Tory +5
No thank you, I'm happy with my position in R&S
Me too
You don't think the Tories will win with a 5 point start?
I'd want more than evens, when I can get 3/1 on a Tory victory.
Why? How do you work that out?
I am probably giving you a very generous offer
As I did by laying 4/6 UKIP under 10% on here when Shadsy was 1/5
bet365 is committed to Responsible Gambling Gambling should be an enjoyable leisure activity. As a responsible gambling operator we'd like to remind you that we provide a range of options to help customers manage their account.
Information on Keeping Control Whilst the majority of people do gamble within their means, for some, gambling can become a problem. It may help you to keep control to remember the following:
Gambling should be entertaining and not seen as a way of making money.
Stan James had the best terms and conditions on their site.
The Free Bet offer is not available to the following accounts and Stan James reserves the right to cancel an entry to the promotion, terminate any account and withhold any promotional benefits at any time and/ or take such other action as it deems appropriate in its absolute discretion, in particular but without limitation in respect of the following accounts:(i) accounts using Neteller or Skrill (Moneybookers) to fund their StanJames.com account; or(ii) accounts that Stan James deems in its absolute discretion to be unwanted and/ or unprofitable; or (iii) accounts that Stan James deems in its absolute discretion to be taking advantage of arbitrage opportunities.
I never arbed ONCE with my Stan James account and it got shut down.
"(ii) accounts that Stan James deems in its absolute discretion to be unwanted and/ or unprofitable"
bet365 is committed to Responsible Gambling Gambling should be an enjoyable leisure activity. As a responsible gambling operator we'd like to remind you that we provide a range of options to help customers manage their account.
Information on Keeping Control Whilst the majority of people do gamble within their means, for some, gambling can become a problem. It may help you to keep control to remember the following:
Gambling should be entertaining and not seen as a way of making money.
Stan James had the best terms and conditions on their site.
The Free Bet offer is not available to the following accounts and Stan James reserves the right to cancel an entry to the promotion, terminate any account and withhold any promotional benefits at any time and/ or take such other action as it deems appropriate in its absolute discretion, in particular but without limitation in respect of the following accounts:(i) accounts using Neteller or Skrill (Moneybookers) to fund their StanJames.com account; or(ii) accounts that Stan James deems in its absolute discretion to be unwanted and/ or unprofitable; or (iii) accounts that Stan James deems in its absolute discretion to be taking advantage of arbitrage opportunities.
I never arbed ONCE with my Stan James account and it got shut down.
You weren't the only one.
I was told they kiboshed any account that had long term non footballing bets.
They thought that meant they were professional gamblers
I really can't see how UKIP could fail to win this. Have people seen UKIP's results in Kent in the European elections?
The Tories on here have mistaken their own hatred for Reckless for the public's opinion.
The UKIP Euro results are very similar to Clacton The Tories smeared Carswell until they knew he would win They are now pretending they didn't smear Carswell and "Reckless is different" UKIPs chances of winning this are boosted last weeks by election results
To be honest, if it wasn't for being taken in by listening to Tories on here say how much they hate Reckless, I would predict a 10-15 point UKIP win
There is no polling or statistical reason for thinking the Tories will win, just that the Tories REALLY want to win
So what?
I said UKIP would piss up in Clacton when Carswell defected and was told I was wrong.. Lots of Tories said the value bet was the Tories, or even Labour at 4/1!!
My gut instinct is an easy UKIP win... double figures
Erm … I just posted that I thought it was an astonishing post by Richard. I too would make Reckless favourite.
However, I think you're over-egging it a bit. You think he will poll more than the 9% opinion poll lead he had before the Conservatives selected their candidate and announced, unlike Clacton, that they will throw the kitchen sink at this one? Remember they gave up Clacton from the word go. Reckless is also nowhere near as popular as Carswell.
But 50-75% of Carswell's vote share Richard? Wow, I hope you're right.
The Tory candidate will be one of two people no one has heard of. Might as well be still unannounced
But money where mouth is, as always
Tory +5 UKIP -5
EVEN MONEY
Did you think before you posted that response to me? I just said I make Reckless favourite.
Kelly Tolhurst may not be known to you but she's a Medway councillor who serves Rochester West ward.
Anna Firth is less local although not a complete outsider.
bet365 is committed to Responsible Gambling Gambling should be an enjoyable leisure activity. As a responsible gambling operator we'd like to remind you that we provide a range of options to help customers manage their account.
Information on Keeping Control Whilst the majority of people do gamble within their means, for some, gambling can become a problem. It may help you to keep control to remember the following:
Gambling should be entertaining and not seen as a way of making money.
Stan James had the best terms and conditions on their site.
The Free Bet offer is not available to the following accounts and Stan James reserves the right to cancel an entry to the promotion, terminate any account and withhold any promotional benefits at any time and/ or take such other action as it deems appropriate in its absolute discretion, in particular but without limitation in respect of the following accounts:(i) accounts using Neteller or Skrill (Moneybookers) to fund their StanJames.com account; or(ii) accounts that Stan James deems in its absolute discretion to be unwanted and/ or unprofitable; or (iii) accounts that Stan James deems in its absolute discretion to be taking advantage of arbitrage opportunities.
I never arbed ONCE with my Stan James account and it got shut down.
See clause (ii). Whether you actually consummate the arb is also pretty immaterial.
I really can't see how UKIP could fail to win this. Have people seen UKIP's results in Kent in the European elections?
The Tories on here have mistaken their own hatred for Reckless for the public's opinion.
The UKIP Euro results are very similar to Clacton The Tories smeared Carswell until they knew he would win They are now pretending they didn't smear Carswell and "Reckless is different" UKIPs chances of winning this are boosted last weeks by election results
To be honest, if it wasn't for being taken in by listening to Tories on here say how much they hate Reckless, I would predict a 10-15 point UKIP win
There is no polling or statistical reason for thinking the Tories will win, just that the Tories REALLY want to win
So what?
I said UKIP would piss up in Clacton when Carswell defected and was told I was wrong.. Lots of Tories said the value bet was the Tories, or even Labour at 4/1!!
My gut instinct is an easy UKIP win... double figures
First Survation Poll in Clacton had Carswell 44% ahead, First Survation poll in R&S had Reckless ahead by 9%.
As with Newark, Survation had UKIP too high, and the Tories too low.
On a 44% lead, that's nothing, on a 9%, that means it is game on.
I will offer you the same bet
EVEN MONEY
I will take UKIP -5 You can have Tory +5
No thank you, I'm happy with my position in R&S
Me too
You don't think the Tories will win with a 5 point start?
I'd want more than evens, when I can get 3/1 on a Tory victory.
Almost everywhere, the bookies and I don't give the Tories much of a chance really.
A few weeks ago, with quite a few bookies, the Tories were the favourite.
I really can't see how UKIP could fail to win this. Have people seen UKIP's results in Kent in the European elections?
The Tories on here have mistaken their own hatred for Reckless for the public's opinion.
The UKIP Euro results are very similar to Clacton The Tories smeared Carswell until they knew he would win They are now pretending they didn't smear Carswell and "Reckless is different" UKIPs chances of winning this are boosted last weeks by election results
To be honest, if it wasn't for being taken in by listening to Tories on here say how much they hate Reckless, I would predict a 10-15 point UKIP win
There is no polling or statistical reason for thinking the Tories will win, just that the Tories REALLY want to win
So what?
I said UKIP would piss up in Clacton when Carswell defected and was told I was wrong.. Lots of Tories said the value bet was the Tories, or even Labour at 4/1!!
My gut instinct is an easy UKIP win... double figures
First Survation Poll in Clacton had Carswell 44% ahead, First Survation poll in R&S had Reckless ahead by 9%.
As with Newark, Survation had UKIP too high, and the Tories too low.
On a 44% lead, that's nothing, on a 9%, that means it is game on.
I think you forgot to mention that the Tories had an 8 point lead in the Newark poll which made it somewhat different to the Rochester poll.
That reaffirms my point.
Survation because of their methodology have UKIP too high and the Tories too low.
It does nothing of the sort
Survation put UKIP on 28% they polled 25.9% (and two subsequent polls had them at 27% 27% ). The UKIP polling was amazingly accurate. It was Labour's polling that was 10 points out and what that demonstrates is there was likely a shift of votes from Labour to Tory over the campaign and similarly to a lesser extent the same was true of the Libdems. With the Tories 8 points ahead in the first poll that gave them momentum.
In Rochester UKIP have the momentum based on the initial poll and on the Clacton result and the seeming bounce from it . Clearly the Tories will throw everything at the seat because they have much to lose and it will certainly be much closer than Clacton.
However, none of that justifies your claims that somehow Survation over stated UKIPs figures in any significant way in Newark because the polling proves they didn't!
I really can't see how UKIP could fail to win this. Have people seen UKIP's results in Kent in the European elections?
The Tories on here have mistaken their own hatred for Reckless for the public's opinion.
The UKIP Euro results are very similar to Clacton The Tories smeared Carswell until they knew he would win They are now pretending they didn't smear Carswell and "Reckless is different" UKIPs chances of winning this are boosted last weeks by election results
To be honest, if it wasn't for being taken in by listening to Tories on here say how much they hate Reckless, I would predict a 10-15 point UKIP win
There is no polling or statistical reason for thinking the Tories will win, just that the Tories REALLY want to win
So what?
I said UKIP would piss up in Clacton when Carswell defected and was told I was wrong.. Lots of Tories said the value bet was the Tories, or even Labour at 4/1!!
My gut instinct is an easy UKIP win... double figures
Erm … I just posted that I thought it was an astonishing post by Richard. I too would make Reckless favourite.
However, I think you're over-egging it a bit. You think he will poll more than the 9% opinion poll lead he had before the Conservatives selected their candidate and announced, unlike Clacton, that they will throw the kitchen sink at this one? Remember they gave up Clacton from the word go. Reckless is also nowhere near as popular as Carswell.
But 50-75% of Carswell's vote share Richard? Wow, I hope you're right.
The Tory candidate will be one of two people no one has heard of. Might as well be still unannounced
But money where mouth is, as always
Tory +5 UKIP -5
EVEN MONEY
Did you think before you posted that response to me? I just said I make Reckless favourite.
Kelly Tolhurst may not be known to you but she's a Medway councillor who serves Rochester West ward.
Anna Firth is less local although not a complete outsider.
They are both women when the Tories have a men's problem in Rochester.
I really can't see how UKIP could fail to win this. Have people seen UKIP's results in Kent in the European elections?
The Tories on here have mistaken their own hatred for Reckless for the public's opinion.
The UKIP Euro results are very similar to Clacton The Tories smeared Carswell until they knew he would win They are now pretending they didn't smear Carswell and "Reckless is different" UKIPs chances of winning this are boosted last weeks by election results
To be honest, if it wasn't for being taken in by listening to Tories on here say how much they hate Reckless, I would predict a 10-15 point UKIP win
There is no polling or statistical reason for thinking the Tories will win, just that the Tories REALLY want to win
So what?
I said UKIP would piss up in Clacton when Carswell defected and was told I was wrong.. Lots of Tories said the value bet was the Tories, or even Labour at 4/1!!
My gut instinct is an easy UKIP win... double figures
Erm … I just posted that I thought it was an astonishing post by Richard. I too would make Reckless favourite.
However, I think you're over-egging it a bit. You think he will poll more than the 9% opinion poll lead he had before the Conservatives selected their candidate and announced, unlike Clacton, that they will throw the kitchen sink at this one? Remember they gave up Clacton from the word go. Reckless is also nowhere near as popular as Carswell.
But 50-75% of Carswell's vote share Richard? Wow, I hope you're right.
The Tory candidate will be one of two people no one has heard of. Might as well be still unannounced
But money where mouth is, as always
Tory +5 UKIP -5
EVEN MONEY
Did you think before you posted that response to me? I just said I make Reckless favourite.
Kelly Tolhurst may not be known to you but she's a Medway councillor who serves Rochester West ward.
Anna Firth is less local although not a complete outsider.
You could easily make Reckless favourite but still back Tory +5
I make Germany favourite to beat Ireland tonight, but would take EVENS about Ireland +3
I really can't see how UKIP could fail to win this. Have people seen UKIP's results in Kent in the European elections?
The Tories on here have mistaken their own hatred for Reckless for the public's opinion.
The UKIP Euro results are very similar to Clacton The Tories smeared Carswell until they knew he would win They are now pretending they didn't smear Carswell and "Reckless is different" UKIPs chances of winning this are boosted last weeks by election results
To be honest, if it wasn't for being taken in by listening to Tories on here say how much they hate Reckless, I would predict a 10-15 point UKIP win
There is no polling or statistical reason for thinking the Tories will win, just that the Tories REALLY want to win
So what?
I said UKIP would piss up in Clacton when Carswell defected and was told I was wrong.. Lots of Tories said the value bet was the Tories, or even Labour at 4/1!!
My gut instinct is an easy UKIP win... double figures
Erm … I just posted that I thought it was an astonishing post by Richard. I too would make Reckless favourite.
However, I think you're over-egging it a bit. You think he will poll more than the 9% opinion poll lead he had before the Conservatives selected their candidate and announced, unlike Clacton, that they will throw the kitchen sink at this one? Remember they gave up Clacton from the word go. Reckless is also nowhere near as popular as Carswell.
But 50-75% of Carswell's vote share Richard? Wow, I hope you're right.
The Tory candidate will be one of two people no one has heard of. Might as well be still unannounced
But money where mouth is, as always
Tory +5 UKIP -5
EVEN MONEY
Did you think before you posted that response to me? I just said I make Reckless favourite.
Kelly Tolhurst may not be known to you but she's a Medway councillor who serves Rochester West ward.
Anna Firth is less local although not a complete outsider.
They are both women when the Tories have a men's problem in Rochester.
Wonder if some wannabe UKIP men will vote for Kelly because she's hot?
bet365 is committed to Responsible Gambling Gambling should be an enjoyable leisure activity. As a responsible gambling operator we'd like to remind you that we provide a range of options to help customers manage their account.
Information on Keeping Control Whilst the majority of people do gamble within their means, for some, gambling can become a problem. It may help you to keep control to remember the following:
Gambling should be entertaining and not seen as a way of making money.
Stan James had the best terms and conditions on their site.
The Free Bet offer is not available to the following accounts and Stan James reserves the right to cancel an entry to the promotion, terminate any account and withhold any promotional benefits at any time and/ or take such other action as it deems appropriate in its absolute discretion, in particular but without limitation in respect of the following accounts:(i) accounts using Neteller or Skrill (Moneybookers) to fund their StanJames.com account; or(ii) accounts that Stan James deems in its absolute discretion to be unwanted and/ or unprofitable; or (iii) accounts that Stan James deems in its absolute discretion to be taking advantage of arbitrage opportunities.
I never arbed ONCE with my Stan James account and it got shut down.
You weren't the only one.
I was told they kiboshed any account that had long term non footballing bets.
They thought that meant they were professional gamblers
It was consistently beating the SP on horses that did it for me actually, I do have these bets left in it to perhaps settle one day though:
03 Oct 2012 13:28 UK Politics Next Chancellor of the Exchequer, Ed Balls, 3/1 Single £20.00 (Pot. Ret. £80.00) Open Show Details 01 Oct 2012 10:16 UK Politics Next Prime Minister, Ed Miliband, 6/4 Single £70.00 (Pot. Ret. £175.00)
bet365 is committed to Responsible Gambling Gambling should be an enjoyable leisure activity. As a responsible gambling operator we'd like to remind you that we provide a range of options to help customers manage their account.
Information on Keeping Control Whilst the majority of people do gamble within their means, for some, gambling can become a problem. It may help you to keep control to remember the following:
Gambling should be entertaining and not seen as a way of making money.
Stan James had the best terms and conditions on their site.
The Free Bet offer is not available to the following accounts and Stan James reserves the right to cancel an entry to the promotion, terminate any account and withhold any promotional benefits at any time and/ or take such other action as it deems appropriate in its absolute discretion, in particular but without limitation in respect of the following accounts:(i) accounts using Neteller or Skrill (Moneybookers) to fund their StanJames.com account; or(ii) accounts that Stan James deems in its absolute discretion to be unwanted and/ or unprofitable; or (iii) accounts that Stan James deems in its absolute discretion to be taking advantage of arbitrage opportunities.
I never arbed ONCE with my Stan James account and it got shut down.
You weren't the only one.
I was told they kiboshed any account that had long term non footballing bets.
They thought that meant they were professional gamblers
It was consistently beating the SP on horses that did it for me actually, I do have these bets left in it to perhaps settle one day though:
03 Oct 2012 13:28 UK Politics Next Chancellor of the Exchequer, Ed Balls, 3/1 Single £20.00 (Pot. Ret. £80.00) Open Show Details 01 Oct 2012 10:16 UK Politics Next Prime Minister, Ed Miliband, 6/4 Single £70.00 (Pot. Ret. £175.00)
I'm sure they'll settle one day; DC & GO won't go on beyond 2030
I really can't see how UKIP could fail to win this. Have people seen UKIP's results in Kent in the European elections?
The Tories on here have mistaken their own hatred for Reckless for the public's opinion.
The UKIP Euro results are very similar to Clacton The Tories smeared Carswell until they knew he would win They are now pretending they didn't smear Carswell and "Reckless is different" UKIPs chances of winning this are boosted last weeks by election results
To be honest, if it wasn't for being taken in by listening to Tories on here say how much they hate Reckless, I would predict a 10-15 point UKIP win
There is no polling or statistical reason for thinking the Tories will win, just that the Tories REALLY want to win
So what?
I said UKIP would piss up in Clacton when Carswell defected and was told I was wrong.. Lots of Tories said the value bet was the Tories, or even Labour at 4/1!!
My gut instinct is an easy UKIP win... double figures
First Survation Poll in Clacton had Carswell 44% ahead, First Survation poll in R&S had Reckless ahead by 9%.
As with Newark, Survation had UKIP too high, and the Tories too low.
On a 44% lead, that's nothing, on a 9%, that means it is game on.
I will offer you the same bet
EVEN MONEY
I will take UKIP -5 You can have Tory +5
No thank you, I'm happy with my position in R&S
Me too
You don't think the Tories will win with a 5 point start?
I'd want more than evens, when I can get 3/1 on a Tory victory.
Why? How do you work that out?
I am probably giving you a very generous offer
As I did by laying 4/6 UKIP under 10% on here when Shadsy was 1/5
bet365 is committed to Responsible Gambling Gambling should be an enjoyable leisure activity. As a responsible gambling operator we'd like to remind you that we provide a range of options to help customers manage their account.
Information on Keeping Control Whilst the majority of people do gamble within their means, for some, gambling can become a problem. It may help you to keep control to remember the following:
Gambling should be entertaining and not seen as a way of making money.
Stan James had the best terms and conditions on their site.
The Free Bet offer is not available to the following accounts and Stan James reserves the right to cancel an entry to the promotion, terminate any account and withhold any promotional benefits at any time and/ or take such other action as it deems appropriate in its absolute discretion, in particular but without limitation in respect of the following accounts:(i) accounts using Neteller or Skrill (Moneybookers) to fund their StanJames.com account; or(ii) accounts that Stan James deems in its absolute discretion to be unwanted and/ or unprofitable; or (iii) accounts that Stan James deems in its absolute discretion to be taking advantage of arbitrage opportunities.
I never arbed ONCE with my Stan James account and it got shut down.
You weren't the only one.
I was told they kiboshed any account that had long term non footballing bets.
They thought that meant they were professional gamblers
It was consistently beating the SP on horses that did it for me actually, I do have these bets left in it to perhaps settle one day though:
03 Oct 2012 13:28 UK Politics Next Chancellor of the Exchequer, Ed Balls, 3/1 Single £20.00 (Pot. Ret. £80.00) Open Show Details 01 Oct 2012 10:16 UK Politics Next Prime Minister, Ed Miliband, 6/4 Single £70.00 (Pot. Ret. £175.00)
I still have no fecking idea why Victor Chandler closed my account the first time around.
@TSE "A few weeks ago, with quite a few bookies, the Tories were the favourite"
Perhaps because you and other Tories were piling money onto the Tories without waiting for a constituency poll. I warned everyone here not to place bets before a constituency poll had been published, so that we know what's going on there before we risk any money.
bet365 is committed to Responsible Gambling Gambling should be an enjoyable leisure activity. As a responsible gambling operator we'd like to remind you that we provide a range of options to help customers manage their account.
Information on Keeping Control Whilst the majority of people do gamble within their means, for some, gambling can become a problem. It may help you to keep control to remember the following:
Gambling should be entertaining and not seen as a way of making money.
Stan James had the best terms and conditions on their site.
The Free Bet offer is not available to the following accounts and Stan James reserves the right to cancel an entry to the promotion, terminate any account and withhold any promotional benefits at any time and/ or take such other action as it deems appropriate in its absolute discretion, in particular but without limitation in respect of the following accounts:(i) accounts using Neteller or Skrill (Moneybookers) to fund their StanJames.com account; or(ii) accounts that Stan James deems in its absolute discretion to be unwanted and/ or unprofitable; or (iii) accounts that Stan James deems in its absolute discretion to be taking advantage of arbitrage opportunities.
I never arbed ONCE with my Stan James account and it got shut down.
You weren't the only one.
I was told they kiboshed any account that had long term non footballing bets.
They thought that meant they were professional gamblers
It was consistently beating the SP on horses that did it for me actually, I do have these bets left in it to perhaps settle one day though:
03 Oct 2012 13:28 UK Politics Next Chancellor of the Exchequer, Ed Balls, 3/1 Single £20.00 (Pot. Ret. £80.00) Open Show Details 01 Oct 2012 10:16 UK Politics Next Prime Minister, Ed Miliband, 6/4 Single £70.00 (Pot. Ret. £175.00)
I'm sure they'll settle one day; DC & GO won't go on beyond 2030
I had £45 DC to stay past 2016 @ 7-2 the other day.
As well as backing him at long odds on to stay till the GE.
My worry isn't Ed Miliband, it's the 1922 committee.
I really can't see how UKIP could fail to win this. Have people seen UKIP's results in Kent in the European elections?
The Tories on here have mistaken their own hatred for Reckless for the public's opinion.
The UKIP Euro results are very similar to Clacton The Tories smeared Carswell until they knew he would win They are now pretending they didn't smear Carswell and "Reckless is different" UKIPs chances of winning this are boosted last weeks by election results
To be honest, if it wasn't for being taken in by listening to Tories on here say how much they hate Reckless, I would predict a 10-15 point UKIP win
There is no polling or statistical reason for thinking the Tories will win, just that the Tories REALLY want to win
So what?
I said UKIP would piss up in Clacton when Carswell defected and was told I was wrong.. Lots of Tories said the value bet was the Tories, or even Labour at 4/1!!
My gut instinct is an easy UKIP win... double figures
First Survation Poll in Clacton had Carswell 44% ahead, First Survation poll in R&S had Reckless ahead by 9%.
As with Newark, Survation had UKIP too high, and the Tories too low.
On a 44% lead, that's nothing, on a 9%, that means it is game on.
I will offer you the same bet
EVEN MONEY
I will take UKIP -5 You can have Tory +5
No thank you, I'm happy with my position in R&S
Me too
You don't think the Tories will win with a 5 point start?
I'd want more than evens, when I can get 3/1 on a Tory victory.
Why? How do you work that out?
I am probably giving you a very generous offer
As I did by laying 4/6 UKIP under 10% on here when Shadsy was 1/5
But if you don't want it fair enough
I just went with my hunch/gut feeling.
OK
Is strange though... Richard Nabavi, a celebrated PBer with a good gambling record it seems, writes a post explaining his thoughts on R&S...
He gives two conclusions
Con by 13% UKIP by 3%
Lots of people compliment his thinking
I offer Con +5% at EVEN money and no one wants it!
I really can't see how UKIP could fail to win this. Have people seen UKIP's results in Kent in the European elections?
The Tories on here have mistaken their own hatred for Reckless for the public's opinion.
The UKIP Euro results are very similar to Clacton The Tories smeared Carswell until they knew he would win They are now pretending they didn't smear Carswell and "Reckless is different" UKIPs chances of winning this are boosted last weeks by election results
To be honest, if it wasn't for being taken in by listening to Tories on here say how much they hate Reckless, I would predict a 10-15 point UKIP win
There is no polling or statistical reason for thinking the Tories will win, just that the Tories REALLY want to win
So what?
I said UKIP would piss up in Clacton when Carswell defected and was told I was wrong.. Lots of Tories said the value bet was the Tories, or even Labour at 4/1!!
My gut instinct is an easy UKIP win... double figures
First Survation Poll in Clacton had Carswell 44% ahead, First Survation poll in R&S had Reckless ahead by 9%.
As with Newark, Survation had UKIP too high, and the Tories too low.
On a 44% lead, that's nothing, on a 9%, that means it is game on.
I will offer you the same bet
EVEN MONEY
I will take UKIP -5 You can have Tory +5
No thank you, I'm happy with my position in R&S
Me too
You don't think the Tories will win with a 5 point start?
I'd want more than evens, when I can get 3/1 on a Tory victory.
Why? How do you work that out?
I am probably giving you a very generous offer
As I did by laying 4/6 UKIP under 10% on here when Shadsy was 1/5
But if you don't want it fair enough
I just went with my hunch/gut feeling.
OK
Is strange though... Richard Nabavi, a celebrated PBer with a good gambling record it seems, writes a post explaining his thoughts on R&S...
He gives two conclusions
Con by 13% UKIP by 3%
Lots of people compliment his thinking
I offer Con +5% at EVEN money and no one wants it!
I really can't see how UKIP could fail to win this. Have people seen UKIP's results in Kent in the European elections?
The Tories on here have mistaken their own hatred for Reckless for the public's opinion.
The UKIP Euro results are very similar to Clacton The Tories smeared Carswell until they knew he would win They are now pretending they didn't smear Carswell and "Reckless is different" UKIPs chances of winning this are boosted last weeks by election results
To be honest, if it wasn't for being taken in by listening to Tories on here say how much they hate Reckless, I would predict a 10-15 point UKIP win
There is no polling or statistical reason for thinking the Tories will win, just that the Tories REALLY want to win
So what?
I said UKIP would piss up in Clacton when Carswell defected and was told I was wrong.. Lots of Tories said the value bet was the Tories, or even Labour at 4/1!!
My gut instinct is an easy UKIP win... double figures
First Survation Poll in Clacton had Carswell 44% ahead, First Survation poll in R&S had Reckless ahead by 9%.
As with Newark, Survation had UKIP too high, and the Tories too low.
On a 44% lead, that's nothing, on a 9%, that means it is game on.
I will offer you the same bet
EVEN MONEY
I will take UKIP -5 You can have Tory +5
No thank you, I'm happy with my position in R&S
Me too
You don't think the Tories will win with a 5 point start?
I'd want more than evens, when I can get 3/1 on a Tory victory.
Why? How do you work that out?
I am probably giving you a very generous offer
As I did by laying 4/6 UKIP under 10% on here when Shadsy was 1/5
But if you don't want it fair enough
I just went with my hunch/gut feeling.
OK
Is strange though... Richard Nabavi, a celebrated PBer with a good gambling record it seems, writes a post explaining his thoughts on R&S...
He gives two conclusions
Con by 13% UKIP by 3%
Lots of people compliment his thinking
I offer Con +5% at EVEN money and no one wants it!
How so?
I think you're right, that's why I'm not biting ^_~
bet365 is committed to Responsible Gambling Gambling should be an enjoyable leisure activity. As a responsible gambling operator we'd like to remind you that we provide a range of options to help customers manage their account.
Information on Keeping Control Whilst the majority of people do gamble within their means, for some, gambling can become a problem. It may help you to keep control to remember the following:
Gambling should be entertaining and not seen as a way of making money.
Stan James had the best terms and conditions on their site.
The Free Bet offer is not available to the following accounts and Stan James reserves the right to cancel an entry to the promotion, terminate any account and withhold any promotional benefits at any time and/ or take such other action as it deems appropriate in its absolute discretion, in particular but without limitation in respect of the following accounts:(i) accounts using Neteller or Skrill (Moneybookers) to fund their StanJames.com account; or(ii) accounts that Stan James deems in its absolute discretion to be unwanted and/ or unprofitable; or (iii) accounts that Stan James deems in its absolute discretion to be taking advantage of arbitrage opportunities.
I never arbed ONCE with my Stan James account and it got shut down.
You weren't the only one.
I was told they kiboshed any account that had long term non footballing bets.
They thought that meant they were professional gamblers
It was consistently beating the SP on horses that did it for me actually, I do have these bets left in it to perhaps settle one day though:
03 Oct 2012 13:28 UK Politics Next Chancellor of the Exchequer, Ed Balls, 3/1 Single £20.00 (Pot. Ret. £80.00) Open Show Details 01 Oct 2012 10:16 UK Politics Next Prime Minister, Ed Miliband, 6/4 Single £70.00 (Pot. Ret. £175.00)
I still have no fecking idea why Victor Chandler closed my account the first time around.
I've always kind of admired Betvictor because they flat out close your account, rather than restricting you to trifling amounts, as the others do.
There is no doubt in my mind that bookmakers in this country are operating a cartel. One day they will come a cropper as a consequence.
I had £45 DC to stay past 2016 @ 7-2 the other day.
As well as backing him at long odds on to stay till the GE.
My worry isn't Ed Miliband, it's the 1922 committee.
I simply can't see the Tories knifing DC this close to the election, regardless of Rochester & Strood; if they think they're going to lose, they'll want to make DC and the Cameroons own the defeat (qv. Labour, amusingly enough).
On Rochester & Strood, I am of a similar mind to Richard Nabavi on this one - R&S is really quite a different constituency to Clacton. Why mess about betting into shadsy's 120% (or whatever it is) book, trying to cover various bands, when you can simply get 3/1 or bigger on the Tories?
bet365 is committed to Responsible Gambling Gambling should be an enjoyable leisure activity. As a responsible gambling operator we'd like to remind you that we provide a range of options to help customers manage their account.
Information on Keeping Control Whilst the majority of people do gamble within their means, for some, gambling can become a problem. It may help you to keep control to remember the following:
Gambling should be entertaining and not seen as a way of making money.
Stan James had the best terms and conditions on their site.
The Free Bet offer is not available to the following accounts and Stan James reserves the right to cancel an entry to the promotion, terminate any account and withhold any promotional benefits at any time and/ or take such other action as it deems appropriate in its absolute discretion, in particular but without limitation in respect of the following accounts:(i) accounts using Neteller or Skrill (Moneybookers) to fund their StanJames.com account; or(ii) accounts that Stan James deems in its absolute discretion to be unwanted and/ or unprofitable; or (iii) accounts that Stan James deems in its absolute discretion to be taking advantage of arbitrage opportunities.
I never arbed ONCE with my Stan James account and it got shut down.
You weren't the only one.
I was told they kiboshed any account that had long term non footballing bets.
They thought that meant they were professional gamblers
It was consistently beating the SP on horses that did it for me actually, I do have these bets left in it to perhaps settle one day though:
03 Oct 2012 13:28 UK Politics Next Chancellor of the Exchequer, Ed Balls, 3/1 Single £20.00 (Pot. Ret. £80.00) Open Show Details 01 Oct 2012 10:16 UK Politics Next Prime Minister, Ed Miliband, 6/4 Single £70.00 (Pot. Ret. £175.00)
I still have no fecking idea why Victor Chandler closed my account the first time around.
I've always kind of admired Betvictor because they flat out close your account, rather than restricting you to trifling amounts, as the others do.
There is no doubt in my mind that bookmakers in this country are operating a cartel. One day they will come a cropper as a consequence.
You don't have to be a hypocritical coward to be a bookmaker.. but it helps
I really can't see how UKIP could fail to win this. Have people seen UKIP's results in Kent in the European elections?
The Tories on here have mistaken their own hatred for Reckless for the public's opinion.
The UKIP Euro results are very similar to Clacton The Tories smeared Carswell until they knew he would win They are now pretending they didn't smear Carswell and "Reckless is different" UKIPs chances of winning this are boosted last weeks by election results
To be honest, if it wasn't for being taken in by listening to Tories on here say how much they hate Reckless, I would predict a 10-15 point UKIP win
There is no polling or statistical reason for thinking the Tories will win, just that the Tories REALLY want to win
So what?
I said UKIP would piss up in Clacton when Carswell defected and was told I was wrong.. Lots of Tories said the value bet was the Tories, or even Labour at 4/1!!
My gut instinct is an easy UKIP win... double figures
First Survation Poll in Clacton had Carswell 44% ahead, First Survation poll in R&S had Reckless ahead by 9%.
As with Newark, Survation had UKIP too high, and the Tories too low.
On a 44% lead, that's nothing, on a 9%, that means it is game on.
I will offer you the same bet
EVEN MONEY
I will take UKIP -5 You can have Tory +5
No thank you, I'm happy with my position in R&S
Me too
You don't think the Tories will win with a 5 point start?
I'd want more than evens, when I can get 3/1 on a Tory victory.
Why? How do you work that out?
I am probably giving you a very generous offer
As I did by laying 4/6 UKIP under 10% on here when Shadsy was 1/5
But if you don't want it fair enough
I just went with my hunch/gut feeling.
OK
Is strange though... Richard Nabavi, a celebrated PBer with a good gambling record it seems, writes a post explaining his thoughts on R&S...
He gives two conclusions
Con by 13% UKIP by 3%
Lots of people compliment his thinking
I offer Con +5% at EVEN money and no one wants it!
How so?
My logic is based on the fact Mike was aware of a pre-defection poll showing Reckless ahead by comfortable double digits.
bet365 is committed to Responsible Gambling Gambling should be an enjoyable leisure activity. As a responsible gambling operator we'd like to remind you that we provide a range of options to help customers manage their account.
Information on Keeping Control Whilst the majority of people do gamble within their means, for some, gambling can become a problem. It may help you to keep control to remember the following:
Gambling should be entertaining and not seen as a way of making money.
Stan James had the best terms and conditions on their site.
The Free Bet offer is not available to the following accounts and Stan James reserves the right to cancel an entry to the promotion, terminate any account and withhold any promotional benefits at any time and/ or take such other action as it deems appropriate in its absolute discretion, in particular but without limitation in respect of the following accounts:(i) accounts using Neteller or Skrill (Moneybookers) to fund their StanJames.com account; or(ii) accounts that Stan James deems in its absolute discretion to be unwanted and/ or unprofitable; or (iii) accounts that Stan James deems in its absolute discretion to be taking advantage of arbitrage opportunities.
I never arbed ONCE with my Stan James account and it got shut down.
You weren't the only one.
I was told they kiboshed any account that had long term non footballing bets.
They thought that meant they were professional gamblers
It was consistently beating the SP on horses that did it for me actually, I do have these bets left in it to perhaps settle one day though:
03 Oct 2012 13:28 UK Politics Next Chancellor of the Exchequer, Ed Balls, 3/1 Single £20.00 (Pot. Ret. £80.00) Open Show Details 01 Oct 2012 10:16 UK Politics Next Prime Minister, Ed Miliband, 6/4 Single £70.00 (Pot. Ret. £175.00)
I still have no fecking idea why Victor Chandler closed my account the first time around.
I've always kind of admired Betvictor because they flat out close your account, rather than restricting you to trifling amounts, as the others do.
There is no doubt in my mind that bookmakers in this country are operating a cartel. One day they will come a cropper as a consequence.
I think they already are.
Last month, I read somewhere Betfair now are worth more than Ladbrokes.
I really can't see how UKIP could fail to win this. Have people seen UKIP's results in Kent in the European elections?
The Tories on here have mistaken their own hatred for Reckless for the public's opinion.
The UKIP Euro results are very similar to Clacton The Tories smeared Carswell until they knew he would win They are now pretending they didn't smear Carswell and "Reckless is different" UKIPs chances of winning this are boosted last weeks by election results
To be honest, if it wasn't for being taken in by listening to Tories on here say how much they hate Reckless, I would predict a 10-15 point UKIP win
There is no polling or statistical reason for thinking the Tories will win, just that the Tories REALLY want to win
So what?
I said UKIP would piss up in Clacton when Carswell defected and was told I was wrong.. Lots of Tories said the value bet was the Tories, or even Labour at 4/1!!
My gut instinct is an easy UKIP win... double figures
First Survation Poll in Clacton had Carswell 44% ahead, First Survation poll in R&S had Reckless ahead by 9%.
As with Newark, Survation had UKIP too high, and the Tories too low.
On a 44% lead, that's nothing, on a 9%, that means it is game on.
No thank you, I'm happy with my position in R&S
Me too
You don't think the Tories will win with a 5 point start?
.
Why? How do you work that out?
I am probably giving you a very generous offer
As I did by laying 4/6 UKIP under 10% on here when Shadsy was 1/5
But if you don't want it fair enough
I just went with my hunch/gut feeling.
OK
Is strange though... Richard Nabavi, a celebrated PBer with a good gambling record it seems, writes a post explaining his thoughts on R&S...
He gives two conclusions
Con by 13% UKIP by 3%
Lots of people compliment his thinking
I offer Con +5% at EVEN money and no one wants it!
How so?
My logic is based on the fact Mike was aware of a pre-defection poll showing Reckless ahead by comfortable double digits.
The first public poll has him ahead by 9%.
My theory is he's no Douglas Carswell.
Completely lost me there, no idea whether that means he will win easily or it will be close
I had £45 DC to stay past 2016 @ 7-2 the other day.
As well as backing him at long odds on to stay till the GE.
My worry isn't Ed Miliband, it's the 1922 committee.
I simply can't see the Tories knifing DC this close to the election, regardless of Rochester & Strood; if they think they're going to lose, they'll want to make DC and the Cameroons own the defeat (qv. Labour, amusingly enough).
On Rochester & Strood, I am of a similar mind to Richard Nabavi on this one - R&S is really quite a different constituency to Clacton. Why mess about betting into shadsy's 120% (or whatever it is) book, trying to cover various bands, when you can simply get 3/1 or bigger on the Tories?
You can't blame Shadsy, TP.
Some of those bands are unbackable and what's more he has to take on some of the sharpest minds on PB. (No need to blush.)
3 years later they ran 193 candidates in their first general election, and lost 192 deposits. The only candidate to keep their deposit? You guessed it...
I had £45 DC to stay past 2016 @ 7-2 the other day.
As well as backing him at long odds on to stay till the GE.
My worry isn't Ed Miliband, it's the 1922 committee.
I simply can't see the Tories knifing DC this close to the election, regardless of Rochester & Strood; if they think they're going to lose, they'll want to make DC and the Cameroons own the defeat (qv. Labour, amusingly enough).
On Rochester & Strood, I am of a similar mind to Richard Nabavi on this one - R&S is really quite a different constituency to Clacton. Why mess about betting into shadsy's 120% (or whatever it is) book, trying to cover various bands, when you can simply get 3/1 or bigger on the Tories?
3-1 Conservative covers all the sub 40% UKIP bands in the market, which certainly makes the 35 -> 40% UKIP bet poor value. UKIP could win with sub 40% but I think there is enough of a squeeze on Labour and others to make it unlikely enough that the 3-1 Tories is far better value. 30-35% UKIP OTOH seems fair enough at 6-1...
I had £45 DC to stay past 2016 @ 7-2 the other day.
As well as backing him at long odds on to stay till the GE.
My worry isn't Ed Miliband, it's the 1922 committee.
I simply can't see the Tories knifing DC this close to the election, regardless of Rochester & Strood; if they think they're going to lose, they'll want to make DC and the Cameroons own the defeat (qv. Labour, amusingly enough).
On Rochester & Strood, I am of a similar mind to Richard Nabavi on this one - R&S is really quite a different constituency to Clacton. Why mess about betting into shadsy's 120% (or whatever it is) book, trying to cover various bands, when you can simply get 3/1 or bigger on the Tories?
You can't blame Shadsy, TP.
Some of those bands are unbackable and what's more he has to take on some of the sharpest minds on PB. (No need to blush.)
But 3/1 Tories in Rochester is definitely value.
Nope, I don't blame shadsy in the slightest. The fact that I have little interest in betting into his fairly-compiled market is the greatest compliment I can pay him :-)
I don't believe this to be correct. I understand cashout was how TSE (and presumably others) made their money at the world cup.
You can make money by taking crap value, and anyone who cashes out with a bookmaker is doing exactly that.. why do you think they offer it?
The value in running is almost always with the underdog when they take the lead. All the mug money backs the jolly to comeback, all the shrewdies get stuck in to the rag.
So if you back the rag before play then cash out when they take the lead you are effectively laying a bet all the pro punters want to back.
That's bad enough, but if you do it with a high st/online bookie, you are paying their overround again instead of the smaller overround on Betfair, and you are greening up all three results to the same return, when their is bound to be a more effective way of getting out
bet365 is committed to Responsible Gambling Gambling should be an enjoyable leisure activity. As a responsible gambling operator we'd like to remind you that we provide a range of options to help customers manage their account.
Information on Keeping Control Whilst the majority of people do gamble within their means, for some, gambling can become a problem. It may help you to keep control to remember the following:
Gambling should be entertaining and not seen as a way of making money.
S
They thought that meant they were professional gamblers
It was consistently beating the SP on horses that did it for me actually, I do have these bets left in it to perhaps settle one day though:
03 Oct 2012 13:28 UK Politics Next Chancellor of the Exchequer, Ed Balls, 3/1 Single £20.00 (Pot. Ret. £80.00) Open Show Details 01 Oct 2012 10:16 UK Politics Next Prime Minister, Ed Miliband, 6/4 Single £70.00 (Pot. Ret. £175.00)
I still have no fecking idea why Victor Chandler closed my account the first time around.
I've always kind of admired Betvictor because they flat out close your account, rather than restricting you to trifling amounts, as the others do.
There is no doubt in my mind that bookmakers in this country are operating a cartel. One day they will come a cropper as a consequence.
You don't have to be a hypocritical coward to be a bookmaker.. but it helps
I don't mind them being hypocritical, Isam, but they have become just plain old-fashioned lazy.
They want to cream off the winnings from fruit machines and the like where the punter quite literally has zero chance because it is so much easier than performing their traditional role of offering a service, at a commission, to gamblers who wish to pit their skill against each other.
Nobody minded them taking a decent cut for that service, but now they want it for no service at all. Perhaps it is time that Betting Shops were closed down, and fruit machines subjected to infinitely more stringent controls.
I don't mind them being hypocritical, Isam, but they have become just plain old-fashioned lazy.
They want to cream off the winnings from fruit machines and the like where the punter quite literally has zero chance because it is so much easier than performing their traditional role of offering a service, at a commission, to gamblers who wish to pit their skill against each other.
Nobody minded them taking a decent cut for that service, but now they want it for no service at all. Perhaps it is time that Betting Shops were closed down, and fruit machines subjected to infinitely more stringent controls.
I had thought 3/1 on the Tories was good value, but changed my mind after Thursday's results. Neither of these potential candidates look much more than typical A-lister - certainly not in the Sarah Wollaston league. I'd be amazed if UKIP don't win.
I've just got some free bets at Bet365 I need to use up.
They have this bizarre thing, you have use up free bet winnings via two further bets before you can transfer the money into your bank account.
You mean it was value because it won you money? That's not the same thing.
It was highly unlikely to be value to lay the rag that took the lead back to a bookie in the World Cup, and probably not on Betfair either. I am not trying to rub you down, I am trying to help you out
That just auto-lays for you to square off your position.
By the way, it's simply not the case that betfair is the best option on these liquid markets. With 5% commission you're nearly always better off taking the bookie's price, provided they are top price.
e.g. on Germany - ROI, the "best bookie" price equates to a 100.2% book. Betfair's back prices, with 5% commission, represent a 102.7% book.
If you must cash out (generally you shouldn't) then betfair may be the best option at that point - but again, you may do better looking for best price elsewhere on the other two selections (or on Double Chance).
If you only want to use one firm (why would you do that?) then betfair is probably the best option, provided you're sticking to the highly liquid stuff (TV matches etc.)
I don't believe this to be correct. I understand cashout was how TSE (and presumably others) made their money at the world cup.
You can make money by taking crap value, and anyone who cashes out with a bookmaker is doing exactly that.. why do you think they offer it?
The value in running is almost always with the underdog when they take the lead. All the mug money backs the jolly to comeback, all the shrewdies get stuck in to the rag.
So if you back the rag before play then cash out when they take the lead you are effectively laying a bet all the pro punters want to back.
That's bad enough, but if you do it with a high st/online bookie, you are paying their overround again instead of the smaller overround on Betfair, and you are greening up all three results to the same return, when their is bound to be a more effective way of getting out
All fair enough I'd assume Isam - you're an odds-compiler - I'm a punter.
That just auto-lays for you to square off your position.
By the way, it's simply not the case that betfair is the best option on these liquid markets. With 5% commission you're nearly always better off taking the bookie's price, provided they are top price.
e.g. on Germany - ROI, the "best bookie" price equates to a 100.2% book. Betfair's back prices, with 5% commission, represent a 102.7% book.
If you must cash out (generally you shouldn't) then betfair may be the best option at that point - but again, you may do better looking for best price elsewhere on the other two selections (or on Double Chance).
If you only want to use one firm (why would you do that?) then betfair is probably the best option, provided you're sticking to the highly liquid stuff (TV matches etc.)
If you can get on with every bookie, and they let you play at better prices than Betfair then yes
Then your account gets closed
Even then you have to back the other two results, and I doubt that is better than just laying the one you backed originally on Betfair, in terms of over round
Comments
Vintage Gordon Brown in commons on devo debate-winding up Tory backbench, quoting Lincoln + the Bible, notes covered in black marker scrawl
The UKIP Euro results are very similar to Clacton
The Tories smeared Carswell until they knew he would win
They are now pretending they didn't smear Carswell and "Reckless is different"
UKIPs chances of winning this are boosted last weeks by election results
Medway Tories are following Reckless
http://www.kentnews.co.uk/news/three_more_jump_from_medway_tories_to_ukip_1_3806236?usurv=skip
To be honest, if it wasn't for being taken in by listening to Tories on here say how much they hate Reckless, I would predict a 10-15 point UKIP win
There is no polling or statistical reason for thinking the Tories will win, just that the Tories REALLY want to win
So what?
I said UKIP would piss up in Clacton when Carswell defected and was told I was wrong.. Lots of Tories said the value bet was the Tories, or even Labour at 4/1!!
My gut instinct is an easy UKIP win... double figures
The number of times he's appeared in the House since 2010 could almost be into double figures. Such value for money.
UKIP + £5.85
Tory + £28.50
Line betting:
UKIP 30-35% +£20
UKIP 40-45% +£17.50
Any other -£15
Conservative Party open primary in Rochester and Strood likened to Beijing candidate selection in Hong Kong
http://www.kentonline.co.uk/medway/news/tories-candidate-selection-condemned-as-25154/
Meanwhile Dave demonstrates how local the primary is and how rich the Tories are by sending a letter to every constituent in Rochester & Strood (& he claims UKIP are trying to turn the by election into a national media circus)
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/10/pm-warns-rochester-and-strood-voters-against-ukips-national-media-circus
Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak 2m2 minutes ago
Right now, Labour can gamble that Tories won't be able to make#evel a big issue - it's not right now, but could they make it at gen elex?
Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak 3m3 minutes ago
Brown's aguments on Scotland rather clearer than Lab front bench position on what to do about #evel -
There hasn't been any anti-UKIP tactical vote before or since Newark so it strengthens my argument that it was an anti-Helmer vote rather that an anti-UKIP vote, Reckless isn't Helmer, second the Tories have a huge men problem not a women problem in the constituency.
Almost half of all men in Rochester are voting UKIP according to the opinion poll.
As with Newark, Survation had UKIP too high, and the Tories too low.
On a 44% lead, that's nothing, on a 9%, that means it is game on.
Which in my view is entirely fair enough. They'll be arguing against equal constituency sizes next...
However, I think you're over-egging it a bit. You think he will poll more than the 9% opinion poll lead he had before the Conservatives selected their candidate and announced, unlike Clacton, that they will throw the kitchen sink at this one? Remember they gave up Clacton from the word go. Reckless is also nowhere near as popular as Carswell.
But 50-75% of Carswell's vote share Richard? Wow, I hope you're right.
I will take UKIP -5% you get the Tories +5%?
UKIP 42%
Con 34%
Lab 18%
Right now ^_~
One N. Farage
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastleigh_by-election,_1994
and I am being generous on the 1%
EVEN MONEY
I will take UKIP -5
You can have Tory +5
That is the real scandal of child abuse. No one wants to believe it is going on, and it is not specific to one party or community.
"Child abuse inquiry to examine claims John Major’s government failed to act"
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/oct/14/child-abuse-inquiry-claims-john-major-government-refused-act-cyril-smith
But it all adds up, did more betting on May 2015 last week to be honest.
The Tory candidate will be one of two people no one has heard of. Might as well be still unannounced
But money where mouth is, as always
Tory +5
UKIP -5
EVEN MONEY
Is it cos he has turned up at Westminster for a change?
Survation because of their methodology have UKIP too high and the Tories too low.
I call bullshit on your attempts to stifle the true voice of the proletariat!
*Sings two lines of the Red Flag, and mumbles the rest*
I shall try my best to contribute to Team PB in a suitable manner.
The Tory party leadership hates UKIP, we all know it.
In Rochester that hatred has lead to campaign errors, some errors that where seen in Clacton too:
1. Picking a female candidate when you have a men problem.
2. Sending a letter from the PM to all constituents to vote for the Tory candidate when they aspire for Labour votes and ignoring the fact that UKIP voters hate his guts.
3. Thinking that people will think that Reckless is a monster from Mars if the Tory party says so, when he has been their MP for quite a while so they know him already.
4. Focusing too much on candidates rather that policies, see 1&3.
I go 45%/30%/20% same order as yourself but i think that result might also herald further defections.
I guess the kitchen sink strategy is designed to narrow the defeat and put off defectors
bet365 is committed to Responsible Gambling
Gambling should be an enjoyable leisure activity. As a responsible gambling operator we'd like to remind you that we provide a range of options to help customers manage their account.
Information on Keeping Control
Whilst the majority of people do gamble within their means, for some, gambling can become a problem. It may help you to keep control to remember the following:
Gambling should be entertaining and not seen as a way of making money.
You don't think the Tories will win with a 5 point start?
Which is another thing that goes into UKIP's favor, many people within the Tory party want to get rid of Cameron.
The Free Bet offer is not available to the following accounts and Stan James reserves the right to cancel an entry to the promotion, terminate any account and withhold any promotional benefits at any time and/ or take such other action as it deems appropriate in its absolute discretion, in particular but without limitation in respect of the following accounts:(i) accounts using Neteller or Skrill (Moneybookers) to fund their StanJames.com account; or(ii) accounts that Stan James deems in its absolute discretion to be unwanted and/ or unprofitable; or (iii) accounts that Stan James deems in its absolute discretion to be taking advantage of arbitrage opportunities.
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/the-cloud-of-unknowing-seats-with-no.html
But the most valuable aspect of this table is to remind me to be careful. When others aren't confident that they know what's going on, I should not assume that I have any special insight
I am probably giving you a very generous offer
As I did by laying 4/6 UKIP under 10% on here when Shadsy was 1/5
But if you don't want it fair enough
Perhaps your account was profitable?
I was told they kiboshed any account that had long term non footballing bets.
They thought that meant they were professional gamblers
Kelly Tolhurst may not be known to you but she's a Medway councillor who serves Rochester West ward.
Anna Firth is less local although not a complete outsider.
Survation put UKIP on 28% they polled 25.9% (and two subsequent polls had them at 27% 27% ). The UKIP polling was amazingly accurate. It was Labour's polling that was 10 points out and what that demonstrates is there was likely a shift of votes from Labour to Tory over the campaign and similarly to a lesser extent the same was true of the Libdems. With the Tories 8 points ahead in the first poll that gave them momentum.
In Rochester UKIP have the momentum based on the initial poll and on the Clacton result and the seeming bounce from it . Clearly the Tories will throw everything at the seat because they have much to lose and it will certainly be much closer than Clacton.
However, none of that justifies your claims that somehow Survation over stated UKIPs figures in any significant way in Newark because the polling proves they didn't!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newark_by-election,_2014
Ouch!
I make Germany favourite to beat Ireland tonight, but would take EVENS about Ireland +3
My bad.
(NB not saying Anna isn't beautiful too!)
03 Oct 2012 13:28
UK Politics
Next Chancellor of the Exchequer, Ed Balls, 3/1 Single £20.00 (Pot. Ret. £80.00)
Open
Show Details
01 Oct 2012 10:16
UK Politics
Next Prime Minister, Ed Miliband, 6/4 Single £70.00 (Pot. Ret. £175.00)
"A few weeks ago, with quite a few bookies, the Tories were the favourite"
Perhaps because you and other Tories were piling money onto the Tories without waiting for a constituency poll.
I warned everyone here not to place bets before a constituency poll had been published, so that we know what's going on there before we risk any money.
As well as backing him at long odds on to stay till the GE.
My worry isn't Ed Miliband, it's the 1922 committee.
Is strange though... Richard Nabavi, a celebrated PBer with a good gambling record it seems, writes a post explaining his thoughts on R&S...
He gives two conclusions
Con by 13%
UKIP by 3%
Lots of people compliment his thinking
I offer Con +5% at EVEN money and no one wants it!
How so?
There is no doubt in my mind that bookmakers in this country are operating a cartel. One day they will come a cropper as a consequence.
On Rochester & Strood, I am of a similar mind to Richard Nabavi on this one - R&S is really quite a different constituency to Clacton. Why mess about betting into shadsy's 120% (or whatever it is) book, trying to cover various bands, when you can simply get 3/1 or bigger on the Tories?
http://aboutasfarasdelgados.blogspot.co.uk/2014/08/you-dont-have-to-be-hypocritical-coward.html
The first public poll has him ahead by 9%.
My theory is he's no Douglas Carswell.
Because there is an Irish bookie called Betfair that exists.
I'd be laying under 25% - I don't k'now the fancy legal term for this.
Last month, I read somewhere Betfair now are worth more than Ladbrokes.
Some of those bands are unbackable and what's more he has to take on some of the sharpest minds on PB. (No need to blush.)
But 3/1 Tories in Rochester is definitely value.
Ireland to beat Germany, you can get 16/1 with some bookies.
You can get 14/1 with bookies that offer cashout opportunities, that's the way I'm going.
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/euro-2016/germany-v-republic-of-ireland/winner
You should lay off on Betfair
The tories would survive a defeat, but how about UKIP?
For a start, a defeat would be a shock.
I do generally lay off on Betfair.
I've just got some free bets at Bet365 I need to use up.
They have this bizarre thing, you have use up free bet winnings via two further bets before you can transfer the money into your bank account.
I was previously in favour of convicting and locking up terror suspects. But now I'm not so sure.
The value in running is almost always with the underdog when they take the lead. All the mug money backs the jolly to comeback, all the shrewdies get stuck in to the rag.
So if you back the rag before play then cash out when they take the lead you are effectively laying a bet all the pro punters want to back.
That's bad enough, but if you do it with a high st/online bookie, you are paying their overround again instead of the smaller overround on Betfair, and you are greening up all three results to the same return, when their is bound to be a more effective way of getting out
They want to cream off the winnings from fruit machines and the like where the punter quite literally has zero chance because it is so much easier than performing their traditional role of offering a service, at a commission, to gamblers who wish to pit their skill against each other.
Nobody minded them taking a decent cut for that service, but now they want it for no service at all. Perhaps it is time that Betting Shops were closed down, and fruit machines subjected to infinitely more stringent controls.
It was highly unlikely to be value to lay the rag that took the lead back to a bookie in the World Cup, and probably not on Betfair either. I am not trying to rub you down, I am trying to help you out
By the way, it's simply not the case that betfair is the best option on these liquid markets. With 5% commission you're nearly always better off taking the bookie's price, provided they are top price.
e.g. on Germany - ROI, the "best bookie" price equates to a 100.2% book. Betfair's back prices, with 5% commission, represent a 102.7% book.
If you must cash out (generally you shouldn't) then betfair may be the best option at that point - but again, you may do better looking for best price elsewhere on the other two selections (or on Double Chance).
If you only want to use one firm (why would you do that?) then betfair is probably the best option, provided you're sticking to the highly liquid stuff (TV matches etc.)
We're not talking nags...
I agree.
Betting shops are no more than a fence for the FOBT's now... all the staff I have spoken to recently openly admit it
The jurors and journalists (plus all others in court) are forbidden from ever disclosing the content of the secret sessions.
This implies that the accused will be prevented making disclosure as well. Very hard to enforce, I would think, unless you eliminate them.
Then your account gets closed
Even then you have to back the other two results, and I doubt that is better than just laying the one you backed originally on Betfair, in terms of over round
I would add for those reading that I believe there are a max. four per shop.