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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Rochester & Strood looks set to bigger even than Eastleigh
@KellyTolhurst one of the two candidates to be CON candidate in R&S – Britain's first all-postal by-election primary pic.twitter.com/DFOCI8GnuX
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Either way, I'm going to campaign for them, and hopefully beat the modern day Kim Philby that is Mark Reckless.
There's plan for this to change American Presidential elections
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact
(He'd be a genuine Wallace doppelganger if he did!)
Labour 10
UKIP 5
Conservatives 4
LD 3
@Bond_James_Bond
Also, to enlarge upon your point about Communists -they are a precise example. People who have allowed themselves to demonise their 'enemies', and cease seeing them as people, thus giving them license to kill huge swathes of them to create a 'better' world. Audreyeanne has said she 'hates' UKIP. Can she therefore be relied upon to support their right to free speech? Their right to adopt children? What modifications to the democratic process would she assent to in order to prevent such loathsome individuals from gaining power? Would she tolerate them being given a good slap every now and again to stop them getting above themselves -for the greater good? These are the things that hatred gradually opens the door too.
Women don't vote for UKIP in the same way women do. And historically speaking in this county the women generally always back the winning party.
Of course, the electors in the electoral college don't HAVE to vote as they were delegated, they can swap their votes if they choose.
https://www.change.org/p/bbc-itv-channel-4-sky-include-the-green-party-in-the-tv-leaders-debates-ahead-of-the-2015-general-election
As it happens in the case of UKIP I don't think they're too malicious in the way that, for instance, the BNP or ISIL are, although I think we should watch this space of signs of homophobia and xenophobia bordering on incitements. Generally they don't seem to cross the boundaries of what's acceptable in a democracy.
That has nothing to do with hating UKIP though.
More on this issue please Mike / TSE / David H. Think it's got the potential to be significant not just at R&S but the GE.
Ah, got it now.
Poland vs Scotland 1945 (Sky, pub)
Denmark vs Portugal 1945 (Itv4)
Inflation rate for sept. released today was 1.2% or 1.3%. Briskin and co's analysis is that the base rate will remain unchanged until post-election (GE15)
What would have been interesting is shadsys prices for Carswells % five weeks before Election Day when ukip were about 1/5
The opening prices on Carswell to win were similar to the Reckless price now, but the vote % prices for clacton were only introduced when Carswell was about 1/25, so comparing these is pointless
Link?
Ukip came within 620 votes of doing a by-election double. The Carswell principle has been established.
Please clarify what you mean.
Kind regards,
JBriskin (of Briskin and co fame)
http://press.labour.org.uk/post/99990995259/ed-milibands-response-to-broadcasters-letter-on-tv
Cowardly Cameron trying to derail debates. Perhaps someone could ask Miliband if they really are a good way of engaging the public in the first place.
What does that even mean?
Over under prices anyone?
Very poor turnout in the clacton meeting I think
So that exempts me and Mike. Now, which one is the baldy....?
It's also possible to fail to hate things that reasonable people would agree do, in fact, meet the latter definition. Environmentalism; Ian Hislop; Amsterdam.
I doubt many people actually hate UKIP in the latter sense, or indeed very much else. As you say, look at what it opens the door to.
Interestingly, though, one of the things you instance as something a UKIP-hater might oppose - "Their right to adopt children?" - actually has been opposed; by left wing council officials in Rotherham - yes, that Rotherham. Employees of the same ineptocracy reportedly blocked adoption because the prospective parents were UKIP supporters. They were fine with those same children being left in care to be raped by Pakistani minicab drivers, however.
So while audrey and I and most others don't literally hate UKIP, there are those on the left who obviously do. How else could you regard a foster parent being a UKIP supporter as a greater evil than paedophile rapists?
As with the sympathy with Communism, the left has pretty much a monopoly on moral incompetence in this area.
I think, if my memory is correct both Robert Waller and a few other books have looked at this.
Gist is, women are less partisan, and less party affiliated than men, so there's more female floating voters than male floating voters.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/nick-cohen/2014/10/why-hasnt-labour-sacked-ed-miliband/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=why-hasnt-labour-sacked-ed-miliband&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/411189/#Comment_411189
I think there's even better value in this market.
Explanation to follow, once I've placed my bets!
Survation/MoS poll has 30.3% of men backing UKIP compared with 18.9% of women
Is it Swahili Tuesday on PB ?
Although I did say the best bet was the 7/2 60-70 which is a loser isn't it? He got 59.8 I think
My first instinct here is to back 35-40 and 40-45 at a combined 8/13
I may try this time.
I was about to be a pedant Luke, but you spotted it
I've not been impressed with the female barrister MPs we've had to endure - the awful Thornberry and Soubry most notably...
Although the one who represented Finchley in years past did alright. :-)
A close win for UKIP would be the most interesting of the outcomes. As things stand, it's the most likely outcome too (though not by all that much).
That was quite nice, and more than made up for slightly underestimating turnout and also screwing up my trading on H + M (although that came close to being an 8/1 winner).
He said soon.
Question for the boffs: what's the largest non-female share in the past 50 years that has still led to an overall GE or by election win? To put that more felicitously: has any party won power with a greater overall percentage of male than female support, and if so by how much? I guess we don't have a Clacton breakdown?
I accept that with UKIP no-one expects them to win but it's still significant, especially as those 'extra' women, and fewer men, are presumably going elsewhere.
Which he lost, btw.
That said, I suppose I must lend him my support now, as the SNP's crucial task is to decimate Labour in Scotland in the hope it somehow leaves the Tories the largest party in a hung parliament next May.
Ahem I think you made money on the spreads too... And if you will go against my advice on turnout well... You can't say I didn't try and help...
Labour has said it will not take part in cross-party discussions about "English votes for English laws".
With the Commons debating devolution, Labour said it would boycott a body set up by David Cameron to examine the future role of English MPs.
BBC news
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/pm-david-cameron-questions-the-format-for-tv-debate-30661062.html
Lab 35.1
Con 31.3
UKIP 13.3
LD 11.2
UKIP should really be 13%, not 14%.
Likewise, for Lord Ashcroft's 32, 28, 19, 8, I get:
Lab 32.0
Con 27.8
UKIP 18.2
LD 9.6
UKIP should really be 18%, not 19%, and LD 10%, not 8%!
The RSPB has membership figures political parties would die for.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/30/ukip-nightingales-labour-rochester-ramsgate-migrants-farage
So sending in your 'Negotiating Team', as is the Labour response is different and better from expressing a couple of concerns in public (no doubt before sending in your negotiating team).
If that is what you wish to believe, so be it.
This is a really interesting wiki page of floor crossings (apols if posted already):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_British_politicians_who_have_crossed_the_floor
I count 4 resignings of the whip and re-standing under different colours in an immediate by-elections now, 3 successful (Carswell, Lady Sylvia Hermon, Dick Taverne), one not (Bruce Douglas-Mann). That's quite a good record now.
Rochester & Strood 2010: Con 49.2%, Lab 28.5%, LD 16%, English Democrats 4.5%, Green 1.5%.
LD are going to collapse, Lab are going to fall back considerably. Let's assume Lab go down to 18%, LD to 3%. I'm going to allocate those lost Lab voters equally to Tory + UKIP as they tactically vote against each other. I'm going to do the same for the lost LibDems except slightly more LibDems will go Tory, especially if it's a nice local girl like Cllr Tolhurst, who won't scare the horses. So 5%+7% to the Tory tally, 5%+6% to the UKIP tally. I'm also going to give all the English Democrats to Reckless (he's welcome to them!). So far 12% Tory, 16% UKIP.
Now the big one. In Clacton I guessed two-thirds for Carswell, one third staying loyally blue. There's no way it's going to be anything like that this time, with Reckless much less popular and regarded as unpleasantly disloyal in a way Carswell wasn't, and with the Tories throwing the kitchen sink at it. I'm going to guesstimate the shares will be the other way round. That's 33% for the Tories and 16% for UKIP.
Net guesstimate:
Con 45%
UKIP 32%
Lab 18%
Other 5%
If you assume the Tory vote splitting 50-50, it ends up with Con 37% UKIP 40%.
My conclusion is that UKIP 30% to 35% at 6/1 is an absolute snip, but 35-40% and 40% to 45% are reasonable bets too. I'd be amazed if the winner is not one of those three.
Also note that you can get 3/1 (or even more if you're patient on Betfair) on the Tories winning. If the Tories win UKIP will be in the 30% to 40% range. A combination bet of the Tories winning outright and UKIP on 40% to 45% would seem to cover most of the probability distribution.
Briskin and co - we understand he is referencing EVEL
UKIP didn't stand last time, is that factored in? Aren't you leaving out DNVs?
I found this old blog of Reckless's http://markreckless.blogspot.co.uk/2010/06/cllr-mark-reckless-mp-for-rochester-and.html which has a picture of Tolhurst and Reckless together about a year before she won her council seat (I think the one he vacated) and says "Mark was particularly delighted to meet up with the Tolhurst family from Borstal, including Kelly Tolhurst who took charge of leading the Little Ships into Dunkirk harbour last week"
I'm not sure why I like the fact that she's from Borstal, home of the borstal.
Cameron shoots himself in the foot on the rural vote
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/10/cameron-shoots-himself-in-the-foot-on-the-rural-vote/
Gordon Brown speaking in chamber. Screen says he started at 14.32 and it is now 14.47 Screen also says 6min limit on backbench speech???
Conversely, a tory win makes further Tory defections (other than possibly someone like Hannan) unlikely, will damage UKIP momentum and make staying near the centre ground much easier.
Labour might still win the most seats in May but it would then be a genuine contest. There is a lot to play for here. It is a biggie.
So, you're basically saying that Mark Reckless is likely to poll between 50% and 75% of Douglas Carswell's share. That's quite a call.
Thanks Richard, that all makes perfect sense.
I'll pass on this occasion but only because I already have an awful lot riding on the outcome of this election, and I want to concentrate on the markets I've already invested in.
£76,000 has already been traded on Betfair. This promises to be one hell of a betting heat.
Many thanks.
Max Keiser retweeted
Stalingrad & Poorski @Stalingrad_Poor 2m2 minutes ago
The selling will continue until morale improves.
Survation @Survation · Oct 4
Where is the UKIP vote coming from? For starters, 42% of people who say they will vote UKIP in the by-election voted Conservative in 2010.
Survation @Survation · Oct 4
UKIP voters told us the reason for voting Reckless,was liking UKIP and their policies (70%) vs protest (18%) or liking Reckless (12%).
In the tables almost no one from 2010 LAB switches to Tories with 1/6 going to UKIP.
With slightly more 2010 LD going UKIP than Tory.
My guess estimate is the reverse of yours, UKIP 45, CON 32 which is based on the only poll there so far.
Betfair have opened up a Rochester & Strood UKIP Vote Percentage market. The square root of bugger all has been matched.
http://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.115925336
I predict 50% turnout in the by-election.
It will be pretty active soon, I expect.