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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Don’t write off an Autumn Election
Lame ducks. Britain’s not supposed to have them given that there are no term limits for ministers and for that matter, no formal terms at all as far as governments are concerned:
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Mr. Herdson, an interesting article. I was intrigued by the 8/1 Mr. Eagles (or was it Mr. Smithson?) mentioned for a second election in 2015.
Betting PostF1: my pre-race wittering has been scrawled on the face of the internet. Look into the mirror of insight here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/japan-pre-race.html
On a less pretentious note, I backed Bottas at 3 (Betfair) to be winner without Hamilton/Rosberg, hedged at 1.5. If it's mostly dry, he's got a good chance, if it's superwet, the race will start and end behind the safety car (and the bet would come off). Good car, good driver, and he's also pretty fast in the wet.
Funniest political thread of this parliament.
8/1 ROFL? 800/1 might just be value.
In 2015.
'But will they use the time until May to get some policies in place"
Hopefully they'll use it to get their election strategy in place. In this election it'll be far more important than policies. They need to organize a really smart negative campaign rather like the one the SNP managed in Scotland.
I cannot see one this year. I'd be staggered if it happened.
Edited extra bit: speaking of work, I must away once more.
https://mobile.twitter.com/spygun/status/518335093077983234?p=v
picking up must have a dozen now
https://mobile.twitter.com/timsculthorpe/status/518376531388022784/photo/1
'They need to organize a really smart negative campaign rather like the one the SNP managed in Scotland.'
With the same result.
dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2780144/The-science-stunt-doubles-Researchers-reveal-never-spot-stand-big-screen.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490
I've seen more people in a single Glasgow taxi than are currently at the LibDem Conference pic.twitter.com/d4jbBl1q2O
— Old Holborn (@Holbornlolz)
October 4, 2014
OK?
The there’s an Autumn statement, which admittedly could be delayed or very brief.
I’m with those who are sure there won’t be an election until May, but I have long thought, although often been advised here that I am wrong, that the Coalition won’t last long after Christmas!
A minority govt. could then manage for ..... what....10 weeks.
3rd time lucky!
Play nice.
Malky - I'm shit at languages, thankfully Ms B a bit better. I would prefer somewhere a little warmer though.
:dodgy-'fall'-for-puntahs:
Are Did not a lot of "Middle-Ages/Renaissance" Jockanese settle in Poland? The name "Jacobi" must surely be Stuart...?
Edited to add: Long day; typing is shyte....
Ah well, the thread made me laugh anyway.
Eh?
You stand to win a fiver. It's a betting Site, Audrey. You put up some odds. I'll take them.
South of France or Germany and you are sorted though more expensive but still better than here.
Suzanne Evans @SuzanneEvans1 3h3 hours ago
It gets worse...Doctor who lied about UKIP Health Policy also on Labour Short List for Stalybridge & Hyde! http://goo.gl/bWcXeg
If the Lib Dems and Tories cannot agree an autumn statement, then yes they might both decide they will engineer an early election in say March. If the election was called today, I don't they can hold it until about 6 weeks time. So very little chance of an election before the end of the year.
In the last thread you stated that the ECB was buying PIIGS debt through the OMT programme. Right now that programme is dormant (although it could be used) and there is no money lent to the PIIGS (or anyone else) through it.
I repeat again, and have linked to data from the ECB website, that the ECB has not been a net buyer of PIIGS debt in the last two years, and they hold more than 25% less periphery debt than they did at their peak in 2012. Your claim that they have been selling German debt to buy periphery debt is false.
RT @TelegraphNews: Body of Alice Gross murder suspect Arnis Zalkalns found in London http://fw.to/ql2RMXO
UKIP 1.81
Con 2.34
Lab 13
Oth 160
http://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.115707446
Joanna Carr @jocarr 21m21 minutes ago
More residential stamp duty raised last year from Kensington and Chelsea than Wales, Scotland and N Ireland combined. Via @TheEconomist
Food for thought.
Got a ton on anyway.
Ladbrokes are now the stand out at evens, but it's mostly 4/5. I still think that's value and if the Clacton by-election turns out as widely expected it'll be 1/2 by Friday morning.
It also implies she knows something about odds and value, or at least more than David Herdson whose suggestion of 8/1 she found laughable. In the circumstances, I think an offer to take her at her word was fair enough.
It is, after all, a betting site, Charles.
They may have taken a surge of money on UKIP, or got wind of a poll, or maybe they took a proper look at the form!
(only kidding!)
The Conservatives signed up to bring forward an elected lords, then didn't. With a significant chunk of the party rejecting any kind of elections (contrary to their owb manifesto).
The Lib Dems signed up to bring forward boundary reform and didn't.
Trying to pretend the two are different is a result of blue tinged bias rather than analysis.
I think she was using it metaphorically and you were being mean to pursue it.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jessenorman/100258267/the-masters-of-truthiness-are-spreading-ignorance-about-lords-reform/
Or do you think no-one has access to the Coalition Agreement any more?
They truly are the party of sanctimony.
It is however the aspect that distinguishes it from other political sites. It explains why you get less bullshit on here than most political sites. Shoot the breeze and you are likely to get shot down, financially if you are not careful.
Nobody's obliged to get involved in the betting, but if you start talking about odds, value and the like, you can't be surprised if the punting types around here take you up. David Herdson is one of the strongest political posters on here and knows a thing or two about betting too. If he considers the odds to be about 8/1, you can take it that he won't be that far wide of the mark. Of course if somebody thinks that he is so laughably wrong as to suggest 800/1 would be 'just about value', they are entitled to their opinion, but they can also expect to be asked to back it up with a small wager.
Or possibly concede that they had perhaps overegged it a bit.
Now they wring their hands praying for our votes but for what point? They have shown they do not have the guts for government.
' TOP executives at two under-fire NHS trusts in the region have been condemned over “outrageous” pay rises of up to 30 per cent.
Union chiefs have reacted furiously to the awards for senior directors at Hull and East Yorkshire Hospitals NHS Trust and the Yorkshire Ambulance Service in contrast to pay rises for other staff who have seen a succession of freezes or increases limited to one per cent since 2011.
The Yorkshire Post can reveal controversial chief executive Phil Morley, who quit his post in Hull in the spring after a report raised concerns over staff shortages and highlighted claims of bullying, was handed an extra £10,000 in basic pay in 2013-14, taking his salary to £195,000-£200,000. '
http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/main-topics/general-news/nhs-bosses-accused-over-outrageous-pay-hikes-1-6877421
In David Cameron's Britain austerity is only for the 99%.
I did hear from the LD Conf that 2/3 of the delegates they approved for this Conference will not be turning up. 120 of them have a substitute....
I love that phrase.
Cool photo as well - I've always stated that PB is the Gold Standard.
I met a girl in Manchester one time - she took to me to a bar - and they had one of those scrolly word things with various phrases. I was slightly hypnotised by one of them-
NOT DIFFERENT, JUST BETTER, NOT DIFFERENT, JUST BETTER, NOT DIFFERENT JUST BETTER, NOT DIFFERENT JUST BETTER
BTW
The parliaments of Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Israel and New Zealand (and the Scottish Parliament, the Welsh Assembly, and the Northern Ireland Assembly) are do not have an upper house.
We can manage without. And why should 'lords' from Wales and Scotland etc have a view on English Bills?
Dear Peter, you are being rather curmudgeonly. You are allowing your fondness for David Herdson get the better of you. I merely suggested that odds of 8-1 on an autumn election are almost as laughable as the thread topic: that odds of 800-1 would be closer to a fair reflection on the likelihood of it happening.
However, do I wish to bet on an autumn election at those, or indeed any, odds? Nope.
p.s. last time I checked commenting on here about odds, value, spreads, likelihoods etc. didn't constitute a 'liability'
p.p.s. shhhh I also rather like David, but this wasn't him at his best.
The multimillionaire is married to Ekaterina Paderina, a Russian whom disgraced former Lib Dem MP Mike Hancock tried to help in the late 1990s when she was threatened with deportation.....
One of the UK businesses of which Banks is director, Rock Services Ltd, had a turnover of £19.7m last year and paid corporation tax of £12,000. The company deducted £19.6m in “administrative expenses”.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/02/ukip-donor-belize-mining-southern-africa
As I recall The Bill never even made it on to floor of the House. Clegg withdrew it after some Conservative MPs said that they were unhappy about a major constitutional bill being pushed through without sufficient scrutiny and debate.
So for a 2014 election, the Government would need to fall apart in a three week window from 27 October to 17 November if an election is going to happen this year. In practice, the last week of those three would lead to an election just before Christmas, which I expect all parties would want to avoid. Given the coalition's durability to date, the likelihood that any government collapse would need a couple of weeks to dissolve Parliament and the current polls, this really is a remote prospect in 2014.
'The Lib Dems signed up to bring forward boundary reform and didn't.'
Everybody knows this was in exchange for a referendum on AV,what's the point in pretending it wasn't?
Clegg lied about boundary changes just as he lied about tuition fees,get over it.
'As Clegg put it, “The one thing I’m not prepared to do is to be the last leader of the Lib Dems.” We can therefore be rationally certain that even if the elected Lords Bill had gone through, the Liberal Democrats would have found a means to block the boundary changes for which they had already voted.'
I didn't for one moment think you were serious, or had thought about the potential liabilities (4,000 quid for a fiver return.) I did however think your dismissive remark deserved to be put in perspective. David knows his politics and his odds. If he quotes 8/1 he's given the matter some thought, and the odds are not likely to be far out. You found his suggestion laughable. Fairy nuff. But if you suggest something closer to 800/1, on a betting site, you can't be surprised if somebody makes you an offer you damn well better refuse.
Fairy nuff?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/11138920/Todays-political-leaders-dont-realise-how-vulnerable-voters-feel.html
Team casio going mainstream - look out people.
You also know as well as I do that odds of 8-1 on an autumn election are absolutely ludicrous, but I will take your rush to the defence of David, when it would cost you barely a dime, as endearing rather than the macho bullying it might otherwise appear.