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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Don’t write off an Autumn Election

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  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    The only Westminster poll I'm expecting tonight is the YouGov for T'Sunday Times.

    I'm not expecting ELBOW to change much this week :)
    There's only one poll that's worth looking at this week. Thursday's YouGov. The New Gold Standard
    Ah yes, I remember it well, that would be the one which was greeted here with a solid red bar chart iirc in response!

    I promise if it is a Tory lead tonight you'll get a bar chart.
    "ONLY the Tories can beat Red Ed in 2015!"
    You'll appreciate this.

    Ed = Joe Dolce

    Dave = Midge Ure/Ultravox
    Nice one! But "Vienna" was officially an Ultravox song.
    This means nothing to me.
    Shaddapa your face!
    Whats a matter you?
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Things looking bad for the town of Kobane, Syria.

    MSF CO-FOUNDER: IF #KOBANE FALLS, TURKEY ALSO RESPONSIBLE 4 #KobaneGenocidehttp://t.co/g9EK4mqZcB #DrWidadpic.twitter.com/FtIN9WPABD

    — Dr Widad Akrawi (@DrWidadAkrawi) October 4, 2014
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,704

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    As one of the 6% and one of the last seven or eight LDs left in the country (apparently), there's lots for me to comment on from the largely negative postings of the past couple few days.

    I'm absolutely convinced the Party will survive - 7.5% and six seats in 1970 didn't destroy us and I don't think even the most optimistic anti-LD is saying six seats or fewer so the party will go on albeit to a different tune.

    I've commented on here and elsewhere about Nick's mistakes - AV was never and has never been Party policy. In many ways, it's as disproportionate as FPTP. I presume either we offered a referendum on STV in the post-election negotiations and were rebuffed or didn't offer it because we knew we would be rebuffed.

    Very few in the LDs shed any tears for the demise of AV - I do accept it was a personal humiliation for Nick following the tuition fees debacle. The problem with credibility is once lost it's incredibly tough to regain.

    My view has long been that the Party will (unless a miracle happens and 50+ MPS are returned) not seek to go into Coalition or any other arrangement after the next election. IF either the Labour or Conservative parties need a Coalition partner next May, it will be the likes of SNP or UKIP (if they have any MPs) to do the heavy lifting.

    There was a fascinating defeatist piece by Amol Rajan in Wednesday's Evening Standard saying next year would be a good election for Labour to lose and pointing out the not inconsiderable obstacles facing the 2015-2020 Government. Politics doesn't work like that - nobody seriously wants to lose though positioning oneself is always helpful.

    Of course the LibDems will survive, but they need a period of opposition to go away and decide what they collectively believe in.

    I notice Jeremy Browne was in this week's NewStatesman offering a third alternative for Liberals: not social liberalism nor Clegg/Orange book, but what he calls 360 degree Liberalism with a strong emphasis on economic liberalism, free markets, profit in public services etc. He has a book coming soon.
    Jeremy Browne's article is here:

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/10/jeremy-browne-lib-dem-leadership-contest-must-include-free-market-candidate

    I cannot see him winning if he stands, but he does at least set out his stall well.
    I cannot see free schools lasting more than one round of parents, to be honest.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,821

    Peter:

    >> Moi?

    "Seriously, I think 8/1 is a bit low. But 800/1 was way, way too high, and kind of derisive of an interesting and thoughtful piece by a respected punting-politico.


    Anyway, you make a good point Peter that there are people here not only who do bet, but occasionally bet large amounts. This gives a dimension that is different from many, or all, other sites. There's nothing quite like money for talking.



    Most suggestions of fanciful odds are plainly hypothetical, but it's not a bad idea idea to think 'what if...' before stating them.
    I think you're confusing two different issues Peter. This is a site about political betting. It isn't William Hill. By which I mean, if we end up with every comment, analysis, counter-suggestion or, indeed, proposal of appropriate odds being followed by you asking us into the betting shop to pull out our coinage the place will descend into farce. I and the vast majority of people on here will continue to make political analysis without you swooping with a 'betcha'.

    I was quite serious. The chances of a General Election being held this autumn are 800-1 or longer in my view. The chances are better than QPR winning the Premier League but not by a lot.

    Strictly seems to have some decent dancers this time. Pixie Lott was very elegant tonight, but no that's not an invitation for a bet … ;)
    That guy off Eastenders doing keepy uppy with his partner's head!! Amazing!
  • The only Westminster poll I'm expecting tonight is the YouGov for T'Sunday Times.

    I'm not expecting ELBOW to change much this week :)
    There's only one poll that's worth looking at this week. Thursday's YouGov. The New Gold Standard
    Ah yes, I remember it well, that would be the one which was greeted here with a solid red bar chart iirc in response!

    I promise if it is a Tory lead tonight you'll get a bar chart.
    "ONLY the Tories can beat Red Ed in 2015!"
    You'll appreciate this.

    Ed = Joe Dolce

    Dave = Midge Ure/Ultravox
    Nice one! But "Vienna" was officially an Ultravox song.
    This means nothing to me.
    New series on eighties music on BBC4 tonight. They have a treasure chest full of shoulderpads and big hair.

    Clashes a bit with Leicester City giving away points to OGH though..
    Cheers.

    I love 80s music.
  • Survation ‏@Survation

    **POLL ALERT** Has Reckless been reckless? - Survation for the Mail on Sunday. Rochester & Strood. Around 10.30-11pm. Stay tuned...
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    john_zims said:
    LDs are a broad church! Though I would sit in the same pew.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    I predict Reckless is ahead but not by an unassailable amount.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    The only Westminster poll I'm expecting tonight is the YouGov for T'Sunday Times.

    I'm not expecting ELBOW to change much this week :)
    There's only one poll that's worth looking at this week. Thursday's YouGov. The New Gold Standard
    Ah yes, I remember it well, that would be the one which was greeted here with a solid red bar chart iirc in response!

    I promise if it is a Tory lead tonight you'll get a bar chart.
    "ONLY the Tories can beat Red Ed in 2015!"
    You'll appreciate this.

    Ed = Joe Dolce

    Dave = Midge Ure/Ultravox
    Nice one! But "Vienna" was officially an Ultravox song.
    This means nothing to me.
    New series on eighties music on BBC4 tonight. They have a treasure chest full of shoulderpads and big hair.

    Clashes a bit with Leicester City giving away points to OGH though..
    I love 80s music.
    Really? We've never noticed.
  • The only Westminster poll I'm expecting tonight is the YouGov for T'Sunday Times.

    I'm not expecting ELBOW to change much this week :)
    There's only one poll that's worth looking at this week. Thursday's YouGov. The New Gold Standard
    Ah yes, I remember it well, that would be the one which was greeted here with a solid red bar chart iirc in response!

    I promise if it is a Tory lead tonight you'll get a bar chart.
    "ONLY the Tories can beat Red Ed in 2015!"
    You'll appreciate this.

    Ed = Joe Dolce

    Dave = Midge Ure/Ultravox
    Nice one! But "Vienna" was officially an Ultravox song.
    This means nothing to me.
    New series on eighties music on BBC4 tonight. They have a treasure chest full of shoulderpads and big hair.

    Clashes a bit with Leicester City giving away points to OGH though..
    I love 80s music.
    Really? We've never noticed.
    I know, I've been far too subtle with my musical references.
  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376

    Survation ‏@Survation

    **POLL ALERT** Has Reckless been reckless? - Survation for the Mail on Sunday. Rochester & Strood. Around 10.30-11pm. Stay tuned...

    Whoa. Interesting.

    He seems to be disliked as much as Carswell is liked. There would be Conservatives (and a few others) cheering for hours on end up and down the country if he loses.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I thought he was Baron Samedi myself. Now there's a supernatural character with a sense of fun.

    HYUFD said:

    Notorious former Haitian President Jean-Claude 'Baby Doc' Duvalier dead from a heart attack
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-29492262

    Not another Zombie?
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    @TRobinsonNewEra @EnglandsAce this is why I am on total agreement with UKIP policy regarding our servicemen. pic.twitter.com/FGP5bLPYHD

    — LawrenceBrewer (@brewer_lar) October 4, 2014
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Mr. Charles, well, no journalist is going to describe their own poll as tedious, boring or predictable, are they?

    Well, Mr Dancer, silence also has its virtues
    I'd think it shows a small lead either way. "Interesting" is too restrained for a large change.

    Except that was the term they used for the 7pt --> -1pt lead.
  • Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Mr. Charles, well, no journalist is going to describe their own poll as tedious, boring or predictable, are they?

    Well, Mr Dancer, silence also has its virtues
    I'd think it shows a small lead either way. "Interesting" is too restrained for a large change.

    Except that was the term they used for the 7pt --> -1pt lead.
    I predict a double digit Labour lead with YouGov.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited October 2014
    I really do not want a "good" Labour show in third place in Rochester. I would prefer Labour were not only a "also ran" but almost "non descript".

    No need to give succour to Tory meme , "Vote Nigel and get Ed" !
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Mr. Charles, well, no journalist is going to describe their own poll as tedious, boring or predictable, are they?

    Well, Mr Dancer, silence also has its virtues
    I'd think it shows a small lead either way. "Interesting" is too restrained for a large change.

    Except that was the term they used for the 7pt --> -1pt lead.
    I predict a double digit Labour lead with YouGov.
    No party will get a double digit lead until 2016 at the earliest.
  • Peter:

    >> Moi?

    "Seriously, I think 8/1 is a bit low. But 800/1 was way, way too high, and kind of derisive of an interesting and thoughtful piece by a respected punting-politico.


    Anyway, you make a good point Peter that there are people here not only who do bet, but occasionally bet large amounts. This gives a dimension that is different from many, or all, other sites. There's nothing quite like money for talking.



    Most suggestions of fanciful odds are plainly hypothetical, but it's not a bad idea idea to think 'what if...' before stating them.
    I think you're confusing two different issues Peter. This is a site about political betting. It isn't William Hill. By which I mean, if we end up with every comment, analysis, counter-suggestion or, indeed, proposal of appropriate odds being followed by you asking us into the betting shop to pull out our coinage the place will descend into farce. I and the vast majority of people on here will continue to make political analysis without you swooping with a 'betcha'.

    I was quite serious. The chances of a General Election being held this autumn are 800-1 or longer in my view. The chances are better than QPR winning the Premier League but not by a lot.

    Strictly seems to have some decent dancers this time. Pixie Lott was very elegant tonight, but no that's not an invitation for a bet … ;)
    The Betcha Gambit can indeed be tedious, Audrey.

    Tim, once of this parish, used it to excess and sometimes as a form of intimidation, which is a pity because used constructively it's a great way to bring bulls*itters down to earth. That's not to say I think you are a bs, although I did think you were rather airily dismissive of a well-argued piece and plausible shot at the odds.

    Are you sure about 800/1? That's a 0.125% probability. Even the 25/1 or so NP and I suggested is only 4%, or 'not very likely' in plain old words, but one chance in 800 is truly a black swan event.

    Strictly never recovered from the Ann Widdicombe farce.
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312

    The only Westminster poll I'm expecting tonight is the YouGov for T'Sunday Times.

    I'm not expecting ELBOW to change much this week :)
    There's only one poll that's worth looking at this week. Thursday's YouGov. The New Gold Standard
    Ah yes, I remember it well, that would be the one which was greeted here with a solid red bar chart iirc in response!

    I promise if it is a Tory lead tonight you'll get a bar chart.
    "ONLY the Tories can beat Red Ed in 2015!"
    You'll appreciate this.

    Ed = Joe Dolce

    Dave = Midge Ure/Ultravox
    Ed=Sweet!

    Dave=Irritating insect?
  • THE most senior ministers of Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, have privately promised to help David Cameron secure a new deal with Brussels to ensure Britain “never” leaves the European Union, The Sunday Times can reveal.

    In a boost to Cameron, Wolfgang Schäuble, the German finance minister, and Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the foreign minister, told Philip Hammond, the British foreign secretary, that they will work with him to get Britain what it needs to remain part of the EU.

    http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/Politics/article1467347.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2014_10_04
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Mr. Charles, well, no journalist is going to describe their own poll as tedious, boring or predictable, are they?

    Well, Mr Dancer, silence also has its virtues
    I'd think it shows a small lead either way. "Interesting" is too restrained for a large change.

    Except that was the term they used for the 7pt --> -1pt lead.
    I predict a double digit Labour lead with YouGov.
    Well you have just spoiled it now....Tory 2% lead.
  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    Peter it's interesting. I guess having watched politics for decades and decades I genuinely think there is no chance of an autumn election. Except there clearly can't be 'no' chance with anything, but there would be nothing comparable in any political event of my lifetime, and I've seen some oddities. I guess we will just have to agree to see the chances of this one differently.

    TSE I sincerely hope that's a joke.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Mr. Charles, well, no journalist is going to describe their own poll as tedious, boring or predictable, are they?

    Well, Mr Dancer, silence also has its virtues
    I'd think it shows a small lead either way. "Interesting" is too restrained for a large change.

    Except that was the term they used for the 7pt --> -1pt lead.
    I predict a double digit Labour lead with YouGov.
    Well you have just spoiled it now....Tory 2% lead.
    Those were the words TSE used yesterday...
  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Mr. Charles, well, no journalist is going to describe their own poll as tedious, boring or predictable, are they?

    Well, Mr Dancer, silence also has its virtues
    I'd think it shows a small lead either way. "Interesting" is too restrained for a large change.

    Except that was the term they used for the 7pt --> -1pt lead.
    I predict a double digit Labour lead with YouGov.
    Well you have just spoiled it now....Tory 2% lead.
    Wow. Given this pollster had no Tory lead since March 2012 and now has two at 1% and 2% … that looks like a trend, although with the caveat of conference season.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Good evening, everyone.

    Just a reminder my pre-race piece is up here:
    http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/japan-pre-race.html

    Backed Bottas at 3 for winner without Hamilton/Rosberg, hedged at 1.5. The race is due to start at 7am (seems unlikely but impossible it'll be altered).

    Mr. Eagles, nice of the Germans to help us enforce the Treaty of Troyes. Mind you, given how Hollande is viewed (saw a French entrepeneur, Py Girbeau[sp], I think, describe him as something like the worst person in history) maybe the French would agree anyway :p
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Mr. Charles, well, no journalist is going to describe their own poll as tedious, boring or predictable, are they?

    Well, Mr Dancer, silence also has its virtues
    I'd think it shows a small lead either way. "Interesting" is too restrained for a large change.

    Except that was the term they used for the 7pt --> -1pt lead.
    I predict a double digit Labour lead with YouGov.
    Well you have just spoiled it now....Tory 2% lead.
    Wow. Given this pollster had no Tory lead since March 2012 and now has two at 1% and 2% … that looks like a trend, although with the caveat of conference season.
    I think compouter was being facetious.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    The Conservatives will want to be in the race in Clacton, and I suspect they will. There is a difference between, say, 15% and 45% behind.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    THE most senior ministers of Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, have privately promised to help David Cameron secure a new deal with Brussels to ensure Britain “never” leaves the European Union, The Sunday Times can reveal.

    In a boost to Cameron, Wolfgang Schäuble, the German finance minister, and Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the foreign minister, told Philip Hammond, the British foreign secretary, that they will work with him to get Britain what it needs to remain part of the EU.

    http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/Politics/article1467347.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2014_10_04

    Another load of Tory fluff to waive in the eyes of the voters.
  • Peter it's interesting. I guess having watched politics for decades and decades I genuinely think there is no chance of an autumn election. Except there clearly can't be 'no' chance with anything, but there would be nothing comparable in any political event of my lifetime, and I've seen some oddities. I guess we will just have to agree to see the chances of this one differently.

    TSE I sincerely hope that's a joke.


    When they were electing the last Pope, Paddy Power went 500/1 against Father Dougal McGuire.

    Let's agree to disagree.
  • THE most senior ministers of Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, have privately promised to help David Cameron secure a new deal with Brussels to ensure Britain “never” leaves the European Union, The Sunday Times can reveal.

    In a boost to Cameron, Wolfgang Schäuble, the German finance minister, and Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the foreign minister, told Philip Hammond, the British foreign secretary, that they will work with him to get Britain what it needs to remain part of the EU.

    http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/Politics/article1467347.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2014_10_04

    Whilst I am sure Germany can influence quite a bit in the EU I doubt it can promise anything of the sort. Unless of course it really is the 4th Reich in disguise?
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Mikkil retweeted
    Cheeky Latte ‏@cheekylatte 13m13 minutes ago
    Mark Reckless questions Joyce Thacker
    http://youtu.be/wu6IqCvEGJM
  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    Grandiose said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Mr. Charles, well, no journalist is going to describe their own poll as tedious, boring or predictable, are they?

    Well, Mr Dancer, silence also has its virtues
    I'd think it shows a small lead either way. "Interesting" is too restrained for a large change.

    Except that was the term they used for the 7pt --> -1pt lead.
    I predict a double digit Labour lead with YouGov.
    Well you have just spoiled it now....Tory 2% lead.
    Wow. Given this pollster had no Tory lead since March 2012 and now has two at 1% and 2% … that looks like a trend, although with the caveat of conference season.
    I think compouter was being facetious.
    Darn!
  • Edin_RokzEdin_Rokz Posts: 516
    fitalass said:

    O/T Telegraph - Alex Salmond rings into radio talk show to attack local council leader
    'The First Minister accuses the leader of Aberdeenshire Council of trying to frighten Poll Tax dodgers after ringing into a BBC Scotland talk show.'

    So over to the Scottish Justice Minister who then tweeted this late last night.
    Twitter
    Kenny MacAskill SNP @KennyMacAskill · 21h 21 hours ago
    In southern states of USA post civil war poll tax and other ruses were used to disenfranchise Black people. In 2014 we have Aberdeenshire.

    STVNews - Kenny MacAskill faces calls to apologise over poll tax tweet
    "“Mr MacAskill wasn't making a comparison between the two situations, and would obviously never do so.”"

    A point that I would have expected our ex RBS accountant to have remembered is that outstanding debts are still recorded on council accounts and as such still have a value.

    If he realised that by his statement at the start of FMQ's he has inadvertently confirmed that he will have to authorise payment to the councils to remove the debt from their records. Around £460 million according to different sources.

    If he had left it to Swinney to make the announcement, watched the fallout, he could have then come in and produced an alternative solution and proven himself the consummate politician.

    Once again, by grandstanding, he has dropped himself in the doodah! Pity Nicola wasn't there to talk him out of it. Now she will have to clear up the mess, again.
  • Tonight's YouGov for the Sunday Times

    Con 36, Lab 34, LD 7, UKIP 13
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Evening all, is this it?
    Dan Hodges retweeted
    17m
    charleshymas's avatar
    charles hymas @charleshymas
    #sundaytimes poll has Tories on 36%, Labour 34%, Ukip 13% and LibDems (on eve of conference) 7%. Expect some "core votery" from Clegg et al
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323

    Grandiose said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Mr. Charles, well, no journalist is going to describe their own poll as tedious, boring or predictable, are they?

    Well, Mr Dancer, silence also has its virtues
    I'd think it shows a small lead either way. "Interesting" is too restrained for a large change.

    Except that was the term they used for the 7pt --> -1pt lead.
    I predict a double digit Labour lead with YouGov.
    Well you have just spoiled it now....Tory 2% lead.
    Wow. Given this pollster had no Tory lead since March 2012 and now has two at 1% and 2% … that looks like a trend, although with the caveat of conference season.
    I think compouter was being facetious.
    Darn!
    Or maybe he wasn't?

    OK, I'm confused.

    Tonight's YouGov for the Sunday Times

    Con 36, Lab 34, LD 7, UKIP 13

  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    edited October 2014

    Tonight's YouGov for the Sunday Times

    Con 36, Lab 34, LD 7, UKIP 13

    Wow.

    Cue the first Baxter post shortly. We need to see a shake-out in a few weeks post conferences to see if this holds, but if it's a trend then it's very interesting.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Just been reading Isabel Hardman's Twitterfeed (as one does), and there are some interesting Clegg comments.

    Apparently, he won't let the Conservatives rearrange the deck chairs in Westminster without proper devolution.

    Also, regarding English votes for English laws 'fair votes not Tory votes'.

    So, sounds like he'll join Labour block/vote against English votes for English laws. If he isn't for that (and I believe he's on record as opposing an English Parliament) then he must still want shitty little pathetic regional assemblies and to carve England up whilst at the same time denying us democratic equality with Scotland.

    Apart from being logically inconsistent, democratically indefensible and thoroughly immoral he makes a sound case.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Tonight's YouGov for the Sunday Times

    Con 36, Lab 34, LD 7, UKIP 13

    Soarover?
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    I noted OGH was getting very excited because the LibDem conference is in Glasgow. Most Glaswegians probably think the yellow bird symbol means the Jehovah's Witnesses are holding a Convention in the city.
  • The Screaming Eagles ‏@TSEofPB

    Tonight's @YouGov for the Sunday Times sees the Tories extending their lead

    Con 36, Lab 34, LD 7, UKIP 13

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BzIUGaUIIAA8pRL.jpg
  • With Labour stalwarts attacking their own and the polls beginning to turn it's obvious that panic is beginning to set in as the faithful see the prospect of a Labour government slowly slip away.
  • Grandiose said:

    Grandiose said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Mr. Charles, well, no journalist is going to describe their own poll as tedious, boring or predictable, are they?

    Well, Mr Dancer, silence also has its virtues
    I'd think it shows a small lead either way. "Interesting" is too restrained for a large change.

    Except that was the term they used for the 7pt --> -1pt lead.
    I predict a double digit Labour lead with YouGov.
    Well you have just spoiled it now....Tory 2% lead.
    Wow. Given this pollster had no Tory lead since March 2012 and now has two at 1% and 2% … that looks like a trend, although with the caveat of conference season.
    I think compouter was being facetious.
    Darn!
    Or maybe he wasn't?

    OK, I'm confused.

    Tonight's YouGov for the Sunday Times

    Con 36, Lab 34, LD 7, UKIP 13

    My figures are accurate and from the Sunday Times website.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    No point getting excited over the polls, given we're in conference season and there are three by-elections between now and the elections.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323

    I noted OGH was getting very excited because the LibDem conference is in Glasgow. Most Glaswegians probably think the yellow bird symbol means the Jehovah's Witnesses are holding a Convention in the city.

    What do the major parties always go through the same places? Wouldn't it help people if it, were, for example, at the Barbican once in a while?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    The Screaming Eagles ‏@TSEofPB

    Tonight's @YouGov for the Sunday Times sees the Tories extending their lead

    Con 36, Lab 34, LD 7, UKIP 13

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BzIUGaUIIAA8pRL.jpg

    Can someone baxterise this please ?
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Just been reading Isabel Hardman's Twitterfeed (as one does), and there are some interesting Clegg comments.

    Apparently, he won't let the Conservatives rearrange the deck chairs in Westminster without proper devolution.

    Also, regarding English votes for English laws 'fair votes not Tory votes'.

    So, sounds like he'll join Labour block/vote against English votes for English laws. If he isn't for that (and I believe he's on record as opposing an English Parliament) then he must still want shitty little pathetic regional assemblies and to carve England up whilst at the same time denying us democratic equality with Scotland.

    Apart from being logically inconsistent, democratically indefensible and thoroughly immoral he makes a sound case.

    Perhaps Clegg wants to have a game of Limbo at the conference?

    7% - How low can he go?

  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    so at least we know Thursday's YouGov wasn't an outlier.

    Thought it a bit cruel of OGH to say Survation and Lord Ashcroft are dominating polling at present. Without YouGov we would all be downing bottles of whisky around 10pm Mon-Thur
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,591
    Tim Stanley retweeted
    Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 1m1 minute ago
    Tonight's Sunday Times poll gives cameron 41 point lead over Ed Miliband on issue of leadership.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    edited October 2014
    Mr. Eastwinger, if this sort of thing persists it'll be interesting to watch Labour's pre-election approach towards Ed Miliband. I suspect the polls will return to a narrow Labour lead fairly soon.

    Edited extra bit: Mr. Hopkins, if Clegg weren't so slavishly devoted to the EU he might have a little more time to spend considering the democratic needs of England.

    Mr. Maaarsh, that's a hefty gap.
  • Tim Shipman ‏@ShippersUnbound

    YouGov poll for the Sunday Times puts Tories in the lead again. Now a 36% to 34% lead. Donors on the record questioning Miliband's approach
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323

    Tonight's YouGov for the Sunday Times

    Con 36, Lab 34, LD 7, UKIP 13

    Wow.

    Cue the first Baxter post shortly. We need to see a shake-out in a few weeks post conferences to see if this holds, but if it's a trend then it's very interesting.
    It will fade, the question is a bit or a lot.

    But actually, I hardly think it matters. It turns out that the Conservative manifesto appeals to the voters, and Milliband isn't particularly convincing.

    The Tories will hope, and could rightly expect, that the election campaign is similar.
  • Front page of the Sunday Times - Donors hammer death wish Miliband,

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BzIVN76CAAAnB8n.jpg
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    edited October 2014
    Baxter

    PTY 2010% 2010# POLL GAINS LOSSES TOTAL CON 36.97% 307 36.00% 28 36 299 LAB 29.66% 258 34.00% 55 0 313 LIB 23.56% 57 7.00% 0 46 11 UKIP 3.17% 0 13.00% 0 0 0 NAT 2.26% 9 2.26% 0 0 9 MIN 0.89% 19 0.89% 0 1 18 OTH 3.48% 0 6.85% 0 0 0
  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    Grandiose said:

    Tonight's YouGov for the Sunday Times

    Con 36, Lab 34, LD 7, UKIP 13

    Wow.

    Cue the first Baxter post shortly. We need to see a shake-out in a few weeks post conferences to see if this holds, but if it's a trend then it's very interesting.
    It will fade, the question is a bit or a lot.

    But actually, I hardly think it matters. It turns out that the Conservative manifesto appeals to the voters, and Milliband isn't particularly convincing.

    The Tories will hope, and could rightly expect, that the election campaign is similar.
    Well as you may know, I have had a bet with Nick Palmer than the Conservatives will win outright by at least 6%. This could always be the start of a meme emerging: the gradual widening of the Conservative lead ...
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    surbiton said:

    The Screaming Eagles ‏@TSEofPB

    Tonight's @YouGov for the Sunday Times sees the Tories extending their lead

    Con 36, Lab 34, LD 7, UKIP 13

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BzIUGaUIIAA8pRL.jpg

    Can someone baxterise this please ?
    Lab 313, Con 299, LD, 11, Others 18
  • Front page of the Sunday Times - Donors hammer death wish Miliband,

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BzIVN76CAAAnB8n.jpg

    Cameron has left it until now to order the hunting down of the Jihadi John terrorist?
  • Mr. Eastwinger, if this sort of thing persists it'll be interesting to watch Labour's pre-election approach towards Ed Miliband. I suspect the polls will return to a narrow Labour lead fairly soon.

    You are probably correct but there are just too many people taking a look at Ed and thinking to themselves, "no thanks".

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Grandiose, the Baxtering of the numbers will be broadly accurate, but a few should be cut from the blues and given to the purples.

    Mr. Eastwinger, indeed. Maybe he should hunt down someone on Hampstead Heath for some advice.
  • As with Clacton poll, Tory candidates not named yet vs existing named mp. This isn't a level playing field.

    Where's that owlBaxterer?
  • Bloody hell, the Tories have retaken the lead on EDUCATION!
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    JohnO said:

    surbiton said:

    The Screaming Eagles ‏@TSEofPB

    Tonight's @YouGov for the Sunday Times sees the Tories extending their lead

    Con 36, Lab 34, LD 7, UKIP 13

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BzIUGaUIIAA8pRL.jpg

    Can someone baxterise this please ?
    Lab 313, Con 299, LD, 11, Others 18
    It is difficult to model UKIP in UNS. I would say UKIP 2/3 seats and Lib Dem would be better, so would SNP.

    Probably Lab 300, Con 285, LD 26, UKIP 2, Other 28
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323

    Mr. Grandiose, the Baxtering of the numbers will be broadly accurate, but a few should be cut from the blues and given to the purples.

    Mr. Eastwinger, indeed. Maybe he should hunt down someone on Hampstead Heath for some advice.

    No doubt, Baxtering does not work exactly.

    I suggest the Tories and Lab are a little too high; the LDs a little too low and UKIP might pick up a couple (but fewer than 5, in my opinion).

    But it makes more sense to quote it and leave everyone to speculate how it might be wrong than to do so myself.
  • As with Clacton poll, Tory candidates not named yet vs existing named mp. This isn't a level playing field.

    Where's that owlBaxterer?

    Mr Scrapheap, we need to tone down our language on the traitorous pig dog Reckless.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-29484321
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312
    dr_spyn said:

    Paul Waugh ‏@paulwaugh 49s48 seconds ago
    RT @TelegraphNews: Body of Alice Gross murder suspect Arnis Zalkalns found in London http://fw.to/ql2RMXO

    I went past Ealing Hospital on the 207 bus from Southall and saw two police underwater team vans parked in the bus lane. One of them was from Nottinghamshire and the other was from South Wales. The entry to the River Brent on the other side of the road was cordoned off. It was only then I realised what was happening.

    Pictures of Alice Gross have been posted on letterboxes, lamp posts and telephone boxes all over West London. Yellow ribbons were on trees in Southall and Hanwell.

    I was in Southall to attend a Sikh 'wake' for a colleague that has died recently. Not exactly a pleasant Friday afternoon.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Bloody hell, the Tories have retaken the lead on EDUCATION!

    She's good, that Nicky Morgan. Not easy for a Tory to go down so well at the teachers union.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Ah, just seen this from some chap called 'Mike Smithson' [also on Twittter]:
    "The LDs "Yes to English votes for English laws. But "fair votes not Tory votes" move throws huge spanner in works. It ain't going to happen"

    It's not rocket science. English votes for English laws (preferably as a stopgap to an English Parliament). If he says 'I support the principle' and then votes against it then it won't necessarily repair Clegg's sub-optimal ratings on trust.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    surbiton said:

    JohnO said:

    surbiton said:

    The Screaming Eagles ‏@TSEofPB

    Tonight's @YouGov for the Sunday Times sees the Tories extending their lead

    Con 36, Lab 34, LD 7, UKIP 13

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BzIUGaUIIAA8pRL.jpg

    Can someone baxterise this please ?
    Lab 313, Con 299, LD, 11, Others 18
    It is difficult to model UKIP in UNS. I would say UKIP 2/3 seats and Lib Dem would be better, so would SNP.

    Probably Lab 300, Con 285, LD 26, UKIP 2, Other 28
    You are short of nine MPs...
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,591
    Tim Stanley ‏@timothy_stanley 55s56 seconds ago
    If the latest polls are correct, all of the Lib Dems' voters are at that conference. #ldsconf
  • malcolmg said:

    fitalass said:

    O/T Telegraph - Alex Salmond rings into radio talk show to attack local council leader
    'The First Minister accuses the leader of Aberdeenshire Council of trying to frighten Poll Tax dodgers after ringing into a BBC Scotland talk show.'

    So over to the Scottish Justice Minister who then tweeted this late last night.
    Twitter
    Kenny MacAskill SNP @KennyMacAskill · 21h 21 hours ago
    In southern states of USA post civil war poll tax and other ruses were used to disenfranchise Black people. In 2014 we have Aberdeenshire.

    STVNews - Kenny MacAskill faces calls to apologise over poll tax tweet
    "First Minister Alex Salmond defended his decision to block councils pursuing people for historic poll tax debts on Friday, accusing some local authorities of trying to "put the frighteners on people".

    A spokeswoman for the SNP said Mr MacAskill was not comparing the two situations."

    Typical Tories, the moron did not have a clue about what debts were outstanding , collected £2K last year and lying about £1.7M being outstanding. What a turnip Gifford sounded on BBC as Alex ripped him a new erchie and showed him what being a real politician looked like.
    MacAskill is just desperately trying to distract people away from the real story of the week - that he has been well and truly whupped over the armed police issue.
  • BlueberryBlueberry Posts: 408
    I'm looking forward to this Rochester poll. I reckon it'll be all square with a lot of don't knows.

    Come what may I think it's going to be one hell of a battle. Loads of Conservatives will be bussed and whipped in, motivated by fear of what will happen if UKIP wins. Likewise, loads of UKIP will make the easy journey from Kent and Essex heartlands determined to throw open the floodgates and chuck the apple cart in with it.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    Tim Shipman ‏@ShippersUnbound

    YouGov poll for the Sunday Times puts Tories in the lead again. Now a 36% to 34% lead. Donors on the record questioning Miliband's approach

    I told you that you had spoiled it for me.....BOOOOOOO!
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    maaarsh said:

    Tim Stanley retweeted
    Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 1m1 minute ago
    Tonight's Sunday Times poll gives cameron 41 point lead over Ed Miliband on issue of leadership.

    Surely no surprise there?
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    edited October 2014

    Bloody hell, the Tories have retaken the lead on EDUCATION!

    She's good, that Nicky Morgan. Not easy for a Tory to go down so well at the teachers union.
    A change of presentation was a good call from Cameron on education.

    He should move toxic Grayling. The dislike of the man is getting too much in the way of the policies, including the British Bill of Rights.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    surbiton said:

    JohnO said:

    surbiton said:

    The Screaming Eagles ‏@TSEofPB

    Tonight's @YouGov for the Sunday Times sees the Tories extending their lead

    Con 36, Lab 34, LD 7, UKIP 13

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BzIUGaUIIAA8pRL.jpg

    Can someone baxterise this please ?
    Lab 313, Con 299, LD, 11, Others 18
    It is difficult to model UKIP in UNS. I would say UKIP 2/3 seats and Lib Dem would be better, so would SNP.

    Probably Lab 300, Con 285, LD 26, UKIP 2, Other 28
    You are short of nine MPs...
    Just like the "Baxter" I was quoted !
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    With Labour stalwarts attacking their own and the polls beginning to turn it's obvious that panic is beginning to set in as the faithful see the prospect of a Labour government slowly slip away.

    Err no, Labour will have leads of between 3% and 5% next week when normal service will resume.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    surbiton said:

    JohnO said:

    surbiton said:

    The Screaming Eagles ‏@TSEofPB

    Tonight's @YouGov for the Sunday Times sees the Tories extending their lead

    Con 36, Lab 34, LD 7, UKIP 13

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BzIUGaUIIAA8pRL.jpg

    Can someone baxterise this please ?
    Lab 313, Con 299, LD, 11, Others 18
    It is difficult to model UKIP in UNS. I would say UKIP 2/3 seats and Lib Dem would be better, so would SNP.

    Probably Lab 300, Con 285, LD 26, UKIP 2, Other 28
    REVISED

    Probably Lab 300, Con 285, LD 30, UKIP 2, Other 33
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514

    Ah, just seen this from some chap called 'Mike Smithson' [also on Twittter]:
    "The LDs "Yes to English votes for English laws. But "fair votes not Tory votes" move throws huge spanner in works. It ain't going to happen"

    It's not rocket science. English votes for English laws (preferably as a stopgap to an English Parliament). If he says 'I support the principle' and then votes against it then it won't necessarily repair Clegg's sub-optimal ratings on trust.

    death wish 15
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Mr. Charles, well, no journalist is going to describe their own poll as tedious, boring or predictable, are they?

    Well, Mr Dancer, silence also has its virtues
    I'd think it shows a small lead either way. "Interesting" is too restrained for a large change.

    Except that was the term they used for the 7pt --> -1pt lead.
    I predict a double digit Labour lead with YouGov.
    Well you have just spoiled it now....Tory 2% lead.
    Wow. Given this pollster had no Tory lead since March 2012 and now has two at 1% and 2% … that looks like a trend, although with the caveat of conference season.
    "A small lead either way", quoth the oracle. I'd hold the Tory champagne for a week or so - conference effects and by-elections.

  • Tim Shipman ‏@ShippersUnbound

    Labour donor Lord Noon tells Sunday Times Miliband’s mansion tax plans are a "hopeless and desperate idea” that's "going back to the 1970s.”
  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    Blueberry said:

    I'm looking forward to this Rochester poll. I reckon it'll be all square with a lot of don't knows.

    Come what may I think it's going to be one hell of a battle. Loads of Conservatives will be bussed and whipped in, motivated by fear of what will happen if UKIP wins. Likewise, loads of UKIP will make the easy journey from Kent and Essex heartlands determined to throw open the floodgates and chuck the apple cart in with it.

    True and not just 'fear.' I think there's deep anger at the manner with which he did it. I suppose, begrudgingly, I can concede Carswell did it with reasonable honour. Reckless has come across as … well let's not spell it out.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Tonight's YouGov for the Sunday Times

    Con 36, Lab 34, LD 7, UKIP 13

    :)

    :):)
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,972
    edited October 2014
    It's beginning to look as though if Miliband doesn't or can't raise his game he'll lose. The Tories look solid in the mid 30's while Ed's support looks as crumbly as Stilton. I think it's time for plan B.
  • With Labour stalwarts attacking their own and the polls beginning to turn it's obvious that panic is beginning to set in as the faithful see the prospect of a Labour government slowly slip away.

    Err no, Labour will have leads of between 3% and 5% next week when normal service will resume.
    Well that's cheered me up no end.

    Considering back in January you said there would be no crossover polls before the General Election.
  • With Labour stalwarts attacking their own and the polls beginning to turn it's obvious that panic is beginning to set in as the faithful see the prospect of a Labour government slowly slip away.

    Err no, Labour will have leads of between 3% and 5% next week when normal service will resume.
    Milliband = King Canute

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I'll take my cheap thrills when I can get 'em ;^ )

    YEAH YouGov The New Gold Standard!

    No point getting excited over the polls, given we're in conference season and there are three by-elections between now and the elections.

  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245

    Front page of the Sunday Times - Donors hammer death wish Miliband,

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BzIVN76CAAAnB8n.jpg

    Cameron has left it until now to order the hunting down of the Jihadi John terrorist?
    Yes it's just occurred to him.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Blueberry said:

    I'm looking forward to this Rochester poll. I reckon it'll be all square with a lot of don't knows.

    Come what may I think it's going to be one hell of a battle. Loads of Conservatives will be bussed and whipped in, motivated by fear of what will happen if UKIP wins. Likewise, loads of UKIP will make the easy journey from Kent and Essex heartlands determined to throw open the floodgates and chuck the apple cart in with it.

    True and not just 'fear.' I think there's deep anger at the manner with which he did it. I suppose, begrudgingly, I can concede Carswell did it with reasonable honour. Reckless has come across as … well let's not spell it out.
    They both defected and forced a by election !
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    edited October 2014
    Mr. Eagles, you mean, he's Red Ed?

    Edited extra bit: Mr. Eastwinger, it's horribly modern, but wasn't King Canute a wise fellow, purposefully demonstrating to his underlings how powerless even a king was in comparison to God?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Holy Polling Booths!
    maaarsh said:

    Tim Stanley retweeted
    Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 1m1 minute ago
    Tonight's Sunday Times poll gives cameron 41 point lead over Ed Miliband on issue of leadership.

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514

    With Labour stalwarts attacking their own and the polls beginning to turn it's obvious that panic is beginning to set in as the faithful see the prospect of a Labour government slowly slip away.

    Err no, Labour will have leads of between 3% and 5% next week when normal service will resume.
    remember the days when it was 8-9 % ?
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    With Labour stalwarts attacking their own and the polls beginning to turn it's obvious that panic is beginning to set in as the faithful see the prospect of a Labour government slowly slip away.

    Err no, Labour will have leads of between 3% and 5% next week when normal service will resume.
    Well that's cheered me up no end.

    Considering back in January you said there would be no crossover polls before the General Election.
    I cannot be right all the time,though my 2% Tory lead for tonight was bullseye.
  • Tim Shipman ‏@ShippersUnbound

    Lord Noon tells Sunday Times Miliband needs to "buck up" and complains Labour not "tough" on immigration like Theresa May
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Grandiose said:

    Baxter

    So completely hung, with no viable coalition possible.

    That'd be fun. For about 15 minutes...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Anyway, chaps, entertaining as it is to remark upon the woes of Miliband, I'm off. Hopefully I'll wake up in time for the race start, whenever that ends up being (likely 7am).

    Goodnight, everyone.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    With Labour stalwarts attacking their own and the polls beginning to turn it's obvious that panic is beginning to set in as the faithful see the prospect of a Labour government slowly slip away.

    Err no, Labour will have leads of between 3% and 5% next week when normal service will resume.
    remember the days when it was 8-9 % ?
    Those were the days Alan, those were the days.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited October 2014
    The LDs would be polling more highly with either Michael Winner or Charles Bronson in charge. And at least one of them is deceased.

    Ah, just seen this from some chap called 'Mike Smithson' [also on Twittter]:
    "The LDs "Yes to English votes for English laws. But "fair votes not Tory votes" move throws huge spanner in works. It ain't going to happen"

    It's not rocket science. English votes for English laws (preferably as a stopgap to an English Parliament). If he says 'I support the principle' and then votes against it then it won't necessarily repair Clegg's sub-optimal ratings on trust.

    death wish 15
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Front page of the Sunday Times - Donors hammer death wish Miliband,

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BzIVN76CAAAnB8n.jpg

    Cameron has left it until now to order the hunting down of the Jihadi John terrorist?
    They had to identify who he was first.
  • The only Westminster poll I'm expecting tonight is the YouGov for T'Sunday Times.

    I'm not expecting ELBOW to change much this week :)
    There's only one poll that's worth looking at this week. Thursday's YouGov. The New Gold Standard
    Ah yes, I remember it well, that would be the one which was greeted here with a solid red bar chart iirc in response!

    I promise if it is a Tory lead tonight you'll get a bar chart.
    "ONLY the Tories can beat Red Ed in 2015!"
    You'll appreciate this.

    Ed = Joe Dolce

    Dave = Midge Ure/Ultravox
    Nice one! But "Vienna" was officially an Ultravox song.
    This means nothing to me.
    New series on eighties music on BBC4 tonight. They have a treasure chest full of shoulderpads and big hair.

    Clashes a bit with Leicester City giving away points to OGH though..
    Cheers.

    I love 80s music.
    Me too!
This discussion has been closed.