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  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    edited October 2014

    Tim Shipman ‏@ShippersUnbound

    Labour donor Lord Noon tells Sunday Times Miliband’s mansion tax plans are a "hopeless and desperate idea” that's "going back to the 1970s.”

    The hens are coming home to roost. I won't get ahead of myself, but I did always think the electorate would eventually wake up to what was about to happen.

    Mind you, we have the shock of Thursday to come. And remember this time last week it was, apparently, the end of all things blue in the nation? http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/09/27/its-like-back-to-the-90s-for-the-tories-on-what-is-turning-out-to-be-camerons-black-saturday/

    Once the UKIP Clacton win subsides it may serve Cameron well because that 'go to bed with Nigel, wake up with Ed' meme is very very smart.

    Although not such great value, odds on an outright Conservative win from here? I like the 10/3 currently on offer from William Hill http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/e/1112310/Next-UK-General-Election-Result.html
  • With Labour stalwarts attacking their own and the polls beginning to turn it's obvious that panic is beginning to set in as the faithful see the prospect of a Labour government slowly slip away.

    Err no, Labour will have leads of between 3% and 5% next week when normal service will resume.
    Possibly but I think this is the beginning of the end for Ed.

    I appreciate it is conference season, but Ed has two huge problems looming:

    1. He has to face the public in the debates, which will not go well.

    2. He also has to tell the English public that they cannot have EV4EL.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Tim Shipman ‏@ShippersUnbound

    YouGov poll for the Sunday Times puts Tories in the lead again. Now a 36% to 34% lead. Donors on the record questioning Miliband's approach

    I told you that you had spoiled it for me.....BOOOOOOO!
    What are you planning to do with Basil's surplus stocks of tramadol?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,738
    Plato said:

    The LDs would be polling more highly with either Michael Winner or Charles Bronson in charge.

    Ah, just seen this from some chap called 'Mike Smithson' [also on Twittter]:
    "The LDs "Yes to English votes for English laws. But "fair votes not Tory votes" move throws huge spanner in works. It ain't going to happen"

    It's not rocket science. English votes for English laws (preferably as a stopgap to an English Parliament). If he says 'I support the principle' and then votes against it then it won't necessarily repair Clegg's sub-optimal ratings on trust.

    death wish 15
    Harold Shipman frankly.

    I really don't get why Clegg is taking this position. Forced differentiation possibly but it's just the wrong issue.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    With Labour stalwarts attacking their own and the polls beginning to turn it's obvious that panic is beginning to set in as the faithful see the prospect of a Labour government slowly slip away.

    Err no, Labour will have leads of between 3% and 5% next week when normal service will resume.
    Possibly but I think this is the beginning of the end for Ed.

    I appreciate it is conference season, but Ed has two huge problems looming:

    1. He has to face the public in the debates, which will not go well.

    2. He also has to tell the English public that they cannot have EV4EL.
    As ever, Ed will be helped out by the Tory Party.They will get mullered in Clacton, cue loads of jittery Tory MP's telling Cameron where he has gone wrong and the papers playing guess the next defector game for weeks.

  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,785
    When are we expecting the Survation Rochester Poll?
  • Lennon said:

    When are we expecting the Survation Rochester Poll?

    Between now and 10.30pm
  • I'm so glad I decided not to go to the cinema tonight.
  • We'll when the YG tables come out if it makes any serious change to this week's Sunil on Sunday ELBOW!
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Charles said:

    Tim Shipman ‏@ShippersUnbound

    YouGov poll for the Sunday Times puts Tories in the lead again. Now a 36% to 34% lead. Donors on the record questioning Miliband's approach

    I told you that you had spoiled it for me.....BOOOOOOO!
    What are you planning to do with Basil's surplus stocks of tramadol?
    They are being put on hold for a couple of days. Basil is currently enjoying a french massage in the little time he has before he goes a wandering with the uprights again.

    http://s612.photobucket.com/user/MovieBuff09/media/Funny Pics/SquirrelMassage.gif.html
  • What chance Rochester stays blue?
  • 66% of the polls conducted entirely in October, have had the Tories ahead.

    Just saying.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,442

    66% of the polls conducted entirely in October, have had the Tories ahead.

    Just saying.

    Tipping point.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    There has to be a certain irony that the much criticised Stephen Fisher yesterday gave Labour its most positive outlook thus far in his serious of predictions. At this rate can we expect him to forecast a Tory majority next Friday assuming the YouGovs don't give Labour a lead larger than 2-3%
  • With Labour stalwarts attacking their own and the polls beginning to turn it's obvious that panic is beginning to set in as the faithful see the prospect of a Labour government slowly slip away.

    Err no, Labour will have leads of between 3% and 5% next week when normal service will resume.
    Possibly but I think this is the beginning of the end for Ed.

    I appreciate it is conference season, but Ed has two huge problems looming:

    1. He has to face the public in the debates, which will not go well.

    2. He also has to tell the English public that they cannot have EV4EL.
    As ever, Ed will be helped out by the Tory Party.They will get mullered in Clacton, cue loads of jittery Tory MP's telling Cameron where he has gone wrong and the papers playing guess the next defector game for weeks.

    Carswell winning will surprise no-one but I think the Tories may beat Reckless, but even if they lose but come close it will put off any potential defectors.

    Think Ed is toast to be honest.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Shaping up nicely.

    Level pegging by January...
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Charles said:

    Tim Shipman ‏@ShippersUnbound

    YouGov poll for the Sunday Times puts Tories in the lead again. Now a 36% to 34% lead. Donors on the record questioning Miliband's approach

    I told you that you had spoiled it for me.....BOOOOOOO!
    What are you planning to do with Basil's surplus stocks of tramadol?
    They are being put on hold for a couple of days. Basil is currently enjoying a french massage in the little time he has before he goes a wandering with the uprights again.

    http://s612.photobucket.com/user/MovieBuff09/media/Funny Pics/SquirrelMassage.gif.html
    Don't worry comp's me old pal,once we have lost the GE ,we can start afresh and start getting rid of these pro EU,mass immigration lib dem types ;-)

    We can get our labour party back ;-)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,350

    What chance Rochester stays blue?

    About 800/1.

    Only joking.......

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,350
    RodCrosby said:

    Shaping up nicely.

    Level pegging by January...

    The souffle is rising rather well.

  • RodCrosby said:

    Shaping up nicely.

    Level pegging by January...

    Listen to Rod if you want to win money. He was one of the very few who nailed it on the button last time.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,442

    What chance Rochester stays blue?

    If Labour/Lib Dems aren't really trying, then there's a chance that like Newark there could be tactical votes from their voters for the Conservatives.

    Funny old world.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,442

    I'm so glad I decided not to go to the cinema tonight.

    You go to the cinema a lot! Any recommendations?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    You can lay Labour most seats on Betfair at 1.76 #innocentface
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Plato said:

    The LDs would be polling more highly with either Michael Winner or Charles Bronson in charge.

    Ah, just seen this from some chap called 'Mike Smithson' [also on Twittter]:
    "The LDs "Yes to English votes for English laws. But "fair votes not Tory votes" move throws huge spanner in works. It ain't going to happen"

    It's not rocket science. English votes for English laws (preferably as a stopgap to an English Parliament). If he says 'I support the principle' and then votes against it then it won't necessarily repair Clegg's sub-optimal ratings on trust.

    death wish 15
    Harold Shipman frankly.

    I really don't get why Clegg is taking this position. Forced differentiation possibly but it's just the wrong issue.
    Maybe his party has seats in Scotland.
  • I'm so glad I decided not to go to the cinema tonight.

    You go to the cinema a lot! Any recommendations?
    Is the joys of living near a Cineworld cinema and having a cineworld unlimited card.

    I really enjoyed Gone Girl and What we did on our holiday
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,442
    edited October 2014
    **BETTING POST**

    I'll say it again: the 10/1 on a Conservative Minority government at Ladbrokes on the post election government market now looks even better value. Much more generous than the 5/1 at Paddy Power.

    I put on the maximum I was allowed (£25) - I was frustrated I wasn't allowed to put on any more.

    As PfP says, DYOR.

  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Twitter
    Tim Shipman ‏@ShippersUnbound 12m12 minutes ago
    Labour frontbencher tells Sunday Times Miliband's team are "in the ideas business" while "the rest of us are in the winning votes business".
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,738

    Plato said:

    The LDs would be polling more highly with either Michael Winner or Charles Bronson in charge.

    Ah, just seen this from some chap called 'Mike Smithson' [also on Twittter]:
    "The LDs "Yes to English votes for English laws. But "fair votes not Tory votes" move throws huge spanner in works. It ain't going to happen"

    It's not rocket science. English votes for English laws (preferably as a stopgap to an English Parliament). If he says 'I support the principle' and then votes against it then it won't necessarily repair Clegg's sub-optimal ratings on trust.

    death wish 15
    Harold Shipman frankly.

    I really don't get why Clegg is taking this position. Forced differentiation possibly but it's just the wrong issue.
    Maybe his party has seats in Scotland.
    Why would scots wish to impose SV4EL? Scots are generally fair minded.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,222
    Briton held hostage in Libya freed
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-29494784

    It'll be interesting to see how this came about ...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,442

    I'm so glad I decided not to go to the cinema tonight.

    You go to the cinema a lot! Any recommendations?
    Is the joys of living near a Cineworld cinema and having a cineworld unlimited card.

    I really enjoyed Gone Girl and What we did on our holiday
    Thanks - will check those out. The wife wants to go and see the Riot Club. I think it'll just annoy me.

    But, if we fail to agree on that, we do have a S1-S3 Game of Thrones boxset to work through.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,772

    66% of the polls conducted entirely in October, have had the Tories ahead.

    Just saying.

    Closer to 67% isn't it?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Charles said:

    Front page of the Sunday Times - Donors hammer death wish Miliband,

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BzIVN76CAAAnB8n.jpg

    Cameron has left it until now to order the hunting down of the Jihadi John terrorist?
    They had to identify who he was first.
    Surely the FBI identified him a week or two back?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Oi! @TSE


    Where's the bar chart you promised?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,222

    I'm so glad I decided not to go to the cinema tonight.

    You go to the cinema a lot! Any recommendations?
    Is the joys of living near a Cineworld cinema and having a cineworld unlimited card.

    I really enjoyed Gone Girl and What we did on our holiday
    What was the ending of Gone Girl like? I ask because the book's ending was awful. Perhaps something to do with the fact that the author admits she ran out of steam two-thirds of the way through, and her editor had to help her finish ...

    And were the two main characters (esp. Nick Dunne) likeable?
  • We need a thread urgently, before the Tory poll leads increase further on which "lost cause" seats the Blues can now reasonably expect to win and how many more and which LibDem seats it can expect to capture.
    Now he's back in these parts, perhaps antifrank would be so kind as to oblige?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,722
    edited October 2014
    Charles said:

    Oi! @TSE


    Where's the bar chart you promised?

    Patience, I'll merge it with the Rochester polling thread.

    I'd get tarred and feathered if I didn't cover the Rochester by-election poll
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,772

    I'm so glad I decided not to go to the cinema tonight.

    You go to the cinema a lot! Any recommendations?
    Is the joys of living near a Cineworld cinema and having a cineworld unlimited card.

    I really enjoyed Gone Girl and What we did on our holiday
    Saw both this week the latter is very funny and the former really good twists
  • 66% of the polls conducted entirely in October, have had the Tories ahead.

    Just saying.

    Closer to 67% isn't it?
    I was trying not to depress the Labour supporters.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844
    fitalass said:

    Twitter
    Tim Shipman ‏@ShippersUnbound 12m12 minutes ago
    Labour frontbencher tells Sunday Times Miliband's team are "in the ideas business" while "the rest of us are in the winning votes business".

    That particular frontbencher is kidding themselves. There is no-one in the Shadow Cabinet who is resonating beyond their own living rooms - let alone with the public at large.
  • I'm so glad I decided not to go to the cinema tonight.

    You go to the cinema a lot! Any recommendations?
    Is the joys of living near a Cineworld cinema and having a cineworld unlimited card.

    I really enjoyed Gone Girl and What we did on our holiday
    What was the ending of Gone Girl like? I ask because the book's ending was awful. Perhaps something to do with the fact that the author admits she ran out of steam two-thirds of the way through, and her editor had to help her finish ...

    And were the two main characters (esp. Nick Dunne) likeable?
    I've not read the book, but I enjoyed the film a lot.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Plato said:

    The LDs would be polling more highly with either Michael Winner or Charles Bronson in charge.

    Ah, just seen this from some chap called 'Mike Smithson' [also on Twittter]:
    "The LDs "Yes to English votes for English laws. But "fair votes not Tory votes" move throws huge spanner in works. It ain't going to happen"

    It's not rocket science. English votes for English laws (preferably as a stopgap to an English Parliament). If he says 'I support the principle' and then votes against it then it won't necessarily repair Clegg's sub-optimal ratings on trust.

    death wish 15
    Harold Shipman frankly.

    I really don't get why Clegg is taking this position. Forced differentiation possibly but it's just the wrong issue.
    Maybe his party has seats in Scotland.
    Why would scots wish to impose SV4EL? Scots are generally fair minded.
    We've done this sketch. Even if EV4EL is a good idea, the question remains how to introduce it without antagonising the Scots, Welsh and Northern Irish.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    fitalass said:

    Twitter
    Tim Shipman ‏@ShippersUnbound 12m12 minutes ago
    Labour frontbencher tells Sunday Times Miliband's team are "in the ideas business" while "the rest of us are in the winning votes business".

    Ha ha ha that is so funny.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,772

    I'm so glad I decided not to go to the cinema tonight.

    You go to the cinema a lot! Any recommendations?
    Is the joys of living near a Cineworld cinema and having a cineworld unlimited card.

    I really enjoyed Gone Girl and What we did on our holiday
    What was the ending of Gone Girl like? I ask because the book's ending was awful. Perhaps something to do with the fact that the author admits she ran out of steam two-thirds of the way through, and her editor had to help her finish ...

    And were the two main characters (esp. Nick Dunne) likeable?
    I would describe the ending as strange and a bit unlikely. Very good film though 2.5 hrs flew by
  • 66% of the polls conducted entirely in October, have had the Tories ahead.

    Just saying.

    Like I said, we'll see if the weekly ELBOW shows any significant change :)
  • Survation ‏@Survation

    Survation for Mail on Sunday. Rochester & Strood Headline voting: CON 31% (-18), LAB 25% (-3), LD 2% (-14), UKIP 40% (+40), OTHER 1% (-5)
  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376

    Charles said:

    Oi! @TSE


    Where's the bar chart you promised?

    Patience, I'll merge it with the Rochester polling thread.

    I'd get tarred and feathered if I didn't cover the Rochester by-election poll

    **BETTING POST**

    I'll say it again: the 10/1 on a Conservative Minority government at Ladbrokes on the post election government market now looks even better value. Much more generous than the 5/1 at Paddy Power.

    I put on the maximum I was allowed (£25) - I was frustrated I wasn't allowed to put on any more.

    As PfP says, DYOR.

    That's good. Still prefer the 10/3 outright at Will Hill. May go for both.

    Haven't seen any majority markets yet? I'd love to punt on 0-20 and 20-40 majority.
  • Plato said:

    The LDs would be polling more highly with either Michael Winner or Charles Bronson in charge.

    Ah, just seen this from some chap called 'Mike Smithson' [also on Twittter]:
    "The LDs "Yes to English votes for English laws. But "fair votes not Tory votes" move throws huge spanner in works. It ain't going to happen"

    It's not rocket science. English votes for English laws (preferably as a stopgap to an English Parliament). If he says 'I support the principle' and then votes against it then it won't necessarily repair Clegg's sub-optimal ratings on trust.

    death wish 15
    Harold Shipman frankly.

    I really don't get why Clegg is taking this position. Forced differentiation possibly but it's just the wrong issue.
    Maybe his party has seats in Scotland.
    Why would scots wish to impose SV4EL? Scots are generally fair minded.
    We've done this sketch. Even if EV4EL is a good idea, the question remains how to introduce it without antagonising the Scots, Welsh and Northern Irish.
    Who cares?
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312

    I'm so glad I decided not to go to the cinema tonight.

    You go to the cinema a lot! Any recommendations?
    Is the joys of living near a Cineworld cinema and having a cineworld unlimited card.

    I really enjoyed Gone Girl and What we did on our holiday
    What was the ending of Gone Girl like? I ask because the book's ending was awful. Perhaps something to do with the fact that the author admits she ran out of steam two-thirds of the way through, and her editor had to help her finish ...

    And were the two main characters (esp. Nick Dunne) likeable?
    Nick Dunne - well, he's a guy, I suppose.

    Amy Dunne? If you need to ask ......
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,738

    Plato said:

    The LDs would be polling more highly with either Michael Winner or Charles Bronson in charge.

    Ah, just seen this from some chap called 'Mike Smithson' [also on Twittter]:
    "The LDs "Yes to English votes for English laws. But "fair votes not Tory votes" move throws huge spanner in works. It ain't going to happen"

    It's not rocket science. English votes for English laws (preferably as a stopgap to an English Parliament). If he says 'I support the principle' and then votes against it then it won't necessarily repair Clegg's sub-optimal ratings on trust.

    death wish 15
    Harold Shipman frankly.

    I really don't get why Clegg is taking this position. Forced differentiation possibly but it's just the wrong issue.
    Maybe his party has seats in Scotland.
    Why would scots wish to impose SV4EL? Scots are generally fair minded.
    We've done this sketch. Even if EV4EL is a good idea, the question remains how to introduce it without antagonising the Scots, Welsh and Northern Irish.
    As someone from NI it doesn't antagonise me in the least - rather I ask why the english are such arseholes to put up with this crap.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844

    Survation ‏@Survation

    Survation for Mail on Sunday. Rochester & Strood Headline voting: CON 31% (-18), LAB 25% (-3), LD 2% (-14), UKIP 40% (+40), OTHER 1% (-5)

    That is winnable by two parties.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    Plato said:

    The LDs would be polling more highly with either Michael Winner or Charles Bronson in charge.

    Ah, just seen this from some chap called 'Mike Smithson' [also on Twittter]:
    "The LDs "Yes to English votes for English laws. But "fair votes not Tory votes" move throws huge spanner in works. It ain't going to happen"

    It's not rocket science. English votes for English laws (preferably as a stopgap to an English Parliament). If he says 'I support the principle' and then votes against it then it won't necessarily repair Clegg's sub-optimal ratings on trust.

    death wish 15
    Harold Shipman frankly.

    I really don't get why Clegg is taking this position. Forced differentiation possibly but it's just the wrong issue.
    Maybe his party has seats in Scotland.
    Why would scots wish to impose SV4EL? Scots are generally fair minded.
    We've done this sketch. Even if EV4EL is a good idea, the question remains how to introduce it without antagonising the Scots, Welsh and Northern Irish.
    Why would it antagonise those of us west of Offa's dike?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Survation ‏@Survation

    Survation for Mail on Sunday. Rochester & Strood Headline voting: CON 31% (-18), LAB 25% (-3), LD 2% (-14), UKIP 40% (+40), OTHER 1% (-5)

    What a tantalising poll.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,772

    66% of the polls conducted entirely in October, have had the Tories ahead.

    Just saying.

    Closer to 67% isn't it?
    I was trying not to depress the Labour supporters.
    Thanks mrs BJ has hidden the razor blades

    I am growing a beard until LAB retake the lead.

    Well it gives me a headstart for Movember
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Front page of the Sunday Times - Donors hammer death wish Miliband,

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BzIVN76CAAAnB8n.jpg

    Cameron has left it until now to order the hunting down of the Jihadi John terrorist?
    They had to identify who he was first.
    Surely the FBI identified him a week or two back?
    There will be some time to get the info transferred and then validated. And then a couple of days to assess the options and make a recommendation. And then a couple of days for Cameron to consider the political, legal and moral implications of his order*

    * unless I am reading too much into @manofkent's use of the term "hunting down"
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,442

    Charles said:

    Oi! @TSE


    Where's the bar chart you promised?

    Patience, I'll merge it with the Rochester polling thread.

    I'd get tarred and feathered if I didn't cover the Rochester by-election poll

    **BETTING POST**

    I'll say it again: the 10/1 on a Conservative Minority government at Ladbrokes on the post election government market now looks even better value. Much more generous than the 5/1 at Paddy Power.

    I put on the maximum I was allowed (£25) - I was frustrated I wasn't allowed to put on any more.

    As PfP says, DYOR.

    That's good. Still prefer the 10/3 outright at Will Hill. May go for both.

    Haven't seen any majority markets yet? I'd love to punt on 0-20 and 20-40 majority.
    I think a majority is a huge stretch. That price doesn't attract me, although I do have a "saver" on Betfair for it.
  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    edited October 2014

    fitalass said:

    Twitter
    Tim Shipman ‏@ShippersUnbound 12m12 minutes ago
    Labour frontbencher tells Sunday Times Miliband's team are "in the ideas business" while "the rest of us are in the winning votes business".

    That particular frontbencher is kidding themselves. There is no-one in the Shadow Cabinet who is resonating beyond their own living rooms - let alone with the public at large.
    Did you see HIGNFY with the extraordinary Newsnight caption? How on earth they got that through the system I don't know, unless there really are rumours of EdM cottaging up on the heath:

    "Gareth"
    Met Ed on Hampstead Heath
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    edited October 2014
    Poor YouGov for Labour...

    Meanwhile the October MEF (Murali Election Forecast) is out...

    Con 288 (-3)
    Lab 309 (+5)
    LD 25 (-1)
    UKIP 1 (-)
    Others 27 (-1)

    Changes against Sept MEF.

    NOM still the favourite according to MEF.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Plato said:

    The LDs would be polling more highly with either Michael Winner or Charles Bronson in charge.

    Ah, just seen this from some chap called 'Mike Smithson' [also on Twittter]:
    "The LDs "Yes to English votes for English laws. But "fair votes not Tory votes" move throws huge spanner in works. It ain't going to happen"

    It's not rocket science. English votes for English laws (preferably as a stopgap to an English Parliament). If he says 'I support the principle' and then votes against it then it won't necessarily repair Clegg's sub-optimal ratings on trust.

    death wish 15
    Harold Shipman frankly.

    I really don't get why Clegg is taking this position. Forced differentiation possibly but it's just the wrong issue.
    Maybe his party has seats in Scotland.
    Why would scots wish to impose SV4EL? Scots are generally fair minded.
    We've done this sketch. Even if EV4EL is a good idea, the question remains how to introduce it without antagonising the Scots, Welsh and Northern Irish.
    The offence of the Scots, Welsh and Northern Ireland does not matter more than a genuine unfairness to the English. Anyone that says it does effectively wants the English to be second class citizens in their own country.
  • Plato said:

    The LDs would be polling more highly with either Michael Winner or Charles Bronson in charge.

    Ah, just seen this from some chap called 'Mike Smithson' [also on Twittter]:
    "The LDs "Yes to English votes for English laws. But "fair votes not Tory votes" move throws huge spanner in works. It ain't going to happen"

    It's not rocket science. English votes for English laws (preferably as a stopgap to an English Parliament). If he says 'I support the principle' and then votes against it then it won't necessarily repair Clegg's sub-optimal ratings on trust.

    death wish 15
    Harold Shipman frankly.

    I really don't get why Clegg is taking this position. Forced differentiation possibly but it's just the wrong issue.
    Maybe his party has seats in Scotland.
    Why would scots wish to impose SV4EL? Scots are generally fair minded.
    We've done this sketch. Even if EV4EL is a good idea, the question remains how to introduce it without antagonising the Scots, Welsh and Northern Irish.
    As someone from NI it doesn't antagonise me in the least - rather I ask why the english are such arseholes to put up with this crap.
    Interesting thing about the Freedom Referendum is that it shows the Unionist/Nationalist split in Scotland is very similar to that in NI (55% v. 45%).
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited October 2014
    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 2m2 minutes ago
    Rochester & Strood poll (Survation):
    UKIP - 40% (+40)
    CON - 31% (-18)
    LAB - 25% (-3)
    LDEM - 2% (-14)

    UKIPUKIPUKIPUKIPUKIPUKIPUKIPUKIP
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Plato said:

    The LDs would be polling more highly with either Michael Winner or Charles Bronson in charge.

    Ah, just seen this from some chap called 'Mike Smithson' [also on Twittter]:
    "The LDs "Yes to English votes for English laws. But "fair votes not Tory votes" move throws huge spanner in works. It ain't going to happen"

    It's not rocket science. English votes for English laws (preferably as a stopgap to an English Parliament). If he says 'I support the principle' and then votes against it then it won't necessarily repair Clegg's sub-optimal ratings on trust.

    death wish 15
    Harold Shipman frankly.

    I really don't get why Clegg is taking this position. Forced differentiation possibly but it's just the wrong issue.
    Maybe his party has seats in Scotland.
    Why would scots wish to impose SV4EL? Scots are generally fair minded.
    We've done this sketch. Even if EV4EL is a good idea, the question remains how to introduce it without antagonising the Scots, Welsh and Northern Irish.
    Who cares?
    Look at the previous quotes -- it explains why Nick Clegg is less cavalier than some about his party being seen as anti-Scottish.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,785

    Survation ‏@Survation

    Survation for Mail on Sunday. Rochester & Strood Headline voting: CON 31% (-18), LAB 25% (-3), LD 2% (-14), UKIP 40% (+40), OTHER 1% (-5)

    9points clear for Reckless - enough of a gap that you understand why he went for it, but small enough that it's clearly still worth the Tories throwing the kitchen sink and everything else they possible have to hand at it. Interesting Times as they say...
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    So Tories only 9% behind in Rochester when no candidate has yet been selected and no date set. Adequate time to pull things back and show Mark he was too reckless!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,222

    I'm so glad I decided not to go to the cinema tonight.

    You go to the cinema a lot! Any recommendations?
    Is the joys of living near a Cineworld cinema and having a cineworld unlimited card.

    I really enjoyed Gone Girl and What we did on our holiday
    What was the ending of Gone Girl like? I ask because the book's ending was awful. Perhaps something to do with the fact that the author admits she ran out of steam two-thirds of the way through, and her editor had to help her finish ...

    And were the two main characters (esp. Nick Dunne) likeable?
    I would describe the ending as strange and a bit unlikely. Very good film though 2.5 hrs flew by
    I'm trying to work out if I want to see it or not (if I get the time). I hated the book to a rather illogical degree, so it would be interesting to see if the film improved on it. Which, to be frank, would not be hard.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,772

    Survation ‏@Survation

    Survation for Mail on Sunday. Rochester & Strood Headline voting: CON 31% (-18), LAB 25% (-3), LD 2% (-14), UKIP 40% (+40), OTHER 1% (-5)

    Was this conducted entirely in October if so 67% becomes 50%?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,442

    Survation ‏@Survation

    Survation for Mail on Sunday. Rochester & Strood Headline voting: CON 31% (-18), LAB 25% (-3), LD 2% (-14), UKIP 40% (+40), OTHER 1% (-5)

    That is winnable by two parties.
    Could be close. If the Tories swarm the seat with groundworkers, and have their MERLIN database up to date, they could do a good canvass pretty quickly.

    Firm up the Con>UKIP waverers, whilst appealing to the softer Lab voters for tactical votes. Tough, but do-able.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,738
    Oh My - reviewing my betting positions, and the Rochester screen seems to have gone rather terrible for the blues.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    According to OGH UKIP had a double digit lead in the pre-defection polling - maybe the tide has already turned on Reckless,
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Tim Shipman ‏@ShippersUnbound

    Lord Noon tells Sunday Times Miliband needs to "buck up" and complains Labour not "tough" on immigration like Theresa May

    Yep. A 3% reduction in immigration over four years. That's toughness!
  • New Thread
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,597
    Interesting poll taken at Peak Tory time at the end of their conference. Reckless not home and dry but his favourite status looks accurate.
  • Survation ‏@Survation

    Survation for Mail on Sunday. Rochester & Strood Headline voting: CON 31% (-18), LAB 25% (-3), LD 2% (-14), UKIP 40% (+40), OTHER 1% (-5)

    Was this conducted entirely in October if so 67% becomes 50%?
    That's not a National poll!
  • Survation ‏@Survation

    Survation for Mail on Sunday. Rochester & Strood Headline voting: CON 31% (-18), LAB 25% (-3), LD 2% (-14), UKIP 40% (+40), OTHER 1% (-5)

    UKIP Vote is less than 2 points below Medway's Euro election voteshare
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Socrates said:

    Plato said:

    The LDs would be polling more highly with either Michael Winner or Charles Bronson in charge.

    Ah, just seen this from some chap called 'Mike Smithson' [also on Twittter]:
    "The LDs "Yes to English votes for English laws. But "fair votes not Tory votes" move throws huge spanner in works. It ain't going to happen"

    It's not rocket science. English votes for English laws (preferably as a stopgap to an English Parliament). If he says 'I support the principle' and then votes against it then it won't necessarily repair Clegg's sub-optimal ratings on trust.

    death wish 15
    Harold Shipman frankly.

    I really don't get why Clegg is taking this position. Forced differentiation possibly but it's just the wrong issue.
    Maybe his party has seats in Scotland.
    Why would scots wish to impose SV4EL? Scots are generally fair minded.
    We've done this sketch. Even if EV4EL is a good idea, the question remains how to introduce it without antagonising the Scots, Welsh and Northern Irish.
    The offence of the Scots, Welsh and Northern Ireland does not matter more than a genuine unfairness to the English. Anyone that says it does effectively wants the English to be second class citizens in their own country.
    Well, during Indyref, the main UK parties were united in wanting the UK to remain as one. That means either a drastically new constitutional settlement, or it means accepting there will be some anomalies that we all have to live with.
  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    edited October 2014

    So Tories only 9% behind in Rochester when no candidate has yet been selected and no date set. Adequate time to pull things back and show Mark he was too reckless!

    And it'd be interesting to know the fieldwork.

    As you say, without even their candidate in place … all to play for. Hope Reckless is starting to sweat, although that could be attributed to other reasons.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281

    Plato said:

    The LDs would be polling more highly with either Michael Winner or Charles Bronson in charge.

    Ah, just seen this from some chap called 'Mike Smithson' [also on Twittter]:
    "The LDs "Yes to English votes for English laws. But "fair votes not Tory votes" move throws huge spanner in works. It ain't going to happen"

    It's not rocket science. English votes for English laws (preferably as a stopgap to an English Parliament). If he says 'I support the principle' and then votes against it then it won't necessarily repair Clegg's sub-optimal ratings on trust.

    death wish 15
    Harold Shipman frankly.

    I really don't get why Clegg is taking this position. Forced differentiation possibly but it's just the wrong issue.
    Maybe his party has seats in Scotland.
    Why would scots wish to impose SV4EL? Scots are generally fair minded.
    We've done this sketch. Even if EV4EL is a good idea, the question remains how to introduce it without antagonising the Scots, Welsh and Northern Irish.
    Why would it? Polling suggests the Scots do not see it as an issue and SNP MPs already practice it. The only people it is an issue to are English Labour who see the loss of a block of votes where the MPs shouldn't be voting in the first place.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,597
    Incidentally, that's another poll (after the H&M by-election poll) where a 2010 LibDem vote in the teens has effectively disappeared.
  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376

    Survation ‏@Survation

    Survation for Mail on Sunday. Rochester & Strood Headline voting: CON 31% (-18), LAB 25% (-3), LD 2% (-14), UKIP 40% (+40), OTHER 1% (-5)

    Was this conducted entirely in October if so 67% becomes 50%?
    Don't think you can push a local to a national dear fellow. Otherwise we'll be skewed this way and that.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    THE most senior ministers of Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, have privately promised to help David Cameron secure a new deal with Brussels to ensure Britain “never” leaves the European Union, The Sunday Times can reveal.

    In a boost to Cameron, Wolfgang Schäuble, the German finance minister, and Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the foreign minister, told Philip Hammond, the British foreign secretary, that they will work with him to get Britain what it needs to remain part of the EU.

    http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/Politics/article1467347.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2014_10_04

    They always caveat it though. I've yet to hear anyone offer anything of substance. Which is why Cameron is waiting to make up his demands. His demands will fit what he gets, rather than vice versa.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    edited October 2014

    Charles said:

    Tim Shipman ‏@ShippersUnbound

    YouGov poll for the Sunday Times puts Tories in the lead again. Now a 36% to 34% lead. Donors on the record questioning Miliband's approach

    I told you that you had spoiled it for me.....BOOOOOOO!
    What are you planning to do with Basil's surplus stocks of tramadol?
    They are being put on hold for a couple of days. Basil is currently enjoying a french massage in the little time he has before he goes a wandering with the uprights again.

    http://s612.photobucket.com/user/MovieBuff09/media/Funny Pics/SquirrelMassage.gif.html
    Don't worry comp's me old pal,once we have lost the GE ,we can start afresh and start getting rid of these pro EU,mass immigration lib dem types ;-)

    We can get our labour party back ;-)
    Tyke - We will take our party back from the seats of government. Don't forget to buy the champers to celebrate when your sponsored Labour man wins Corby.

    Still putting the rest of the Labour wins together for all of the PB Hodges so they do not get jeolous of you.

    Back to tonights poll.....This could be the biggest fall back down the hill so far. The Grand old duke of York has nothing on the PB Hodges on here.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    With Labour stalwarts attacking their own and the polls beginning to turn it's obvious that panic is beginning to set in as the faithful see the prospect of a Labour government slowly slip away.

    Err no, Labour will have leads of between 3% and 5% next week when normal service will resume.
    Possibly but I think this is the beginning of the end for Ed.

    I appreciate it is conference season, but Ed has two huge problems looming:

    1. He has to face the public in the debates, which will not go well.

    2. He also has to tell the English public that they cannot have EV4EL.
    As ever, Ed will be helped out by the Tory Party.They will get mullered in Clacton, cue loads of jittery Tory MP's telling Cameron where he has gone wrong and the papers playing guess the next defector game for weeks.

    Carswell winning will surprise no-one but I think the Tories may beat Reckless, but even if they lose but come close it will put off any potential defectors.

    Think Ed is toast to be honest.
    UKIP will win both. Whoever the other defector was who had cold feet will be emboldened and most probably go through with it this time, at a time for maximum exposure.A few others will be working out if it is worth it for them to cross over or try and fight UKIP in May. Others will be worried about what will happen in their seat when UKIP gain votes.

    The papers will be hunting down the defectors. Murdoch will continue tweeting kisses to Nigel.

    Ed will just get the popcorn out and enjoy the show.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Just spotted Lib Dem 2% - Christ on a bike.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    edited October 2014
    You hit the nail square on the head. And while Salmond decides to wipe out the debts of poll tax dodgers on Thursday, we await the tax raising plans that John Swinney has in store for the many civic minded Scots who not only paid their taxes, but who also bothered to turn out and vote for the last twenty five years too. Lets see who gets the solidarity and fairness here?!
    Twitter
    sunday herald ‏@newsundayherald 7m7 minutes ago
    Finance Secretary @JohnSwinney to announce first Scottish taxes in budget based on 'fairness and solidarity' ... in tomorrow's paper
    Edin_Rokz said:

    fitalass said:

    O/T Telegraph - Alex Salmond rings into radio talk show to attack local council leader
    'The First Minister accuses the leader of Aberdeenshire Council of trying to frighten Poll Tax dodgers after ringing into a BBC Scotland talk show.'

    So over to the Scottish Justice Minister who then tweeted this late last night.
    Twitter
    Kenny MacAskill SNP @KennyMacAskill · 21h 21 hours ago
    In southern states of USA post civil war poll tax and other ruses were used to disenfranchise Black people. In 2014 we have Aberdeenshire.

    STVNews - Kenny MacAskill faces calls to apologise over poll tax tweet
    "“Mr MacAskill wasn't making a comparison between the two situations, and would obviously never do so.”"

    A point that I would have expected our ex RBS accountant to have remembered is that outstanding debts are still recorded on council accounts and as such still have a value.

    If he realised that by his statement at the start of FMQ's he has inadvertently confirmed that he will have to authorise payment to the councils to remove the debt from their records. Around £460 million according to different sources.

    If he had left it to Swinney to make the announcement, watched the fallout, he could have then come in and produced an alternative solution and proven himself the consummate politician.

    Once again, by grandstanding, he has dropped himself in the doodah! Pity Nicola wasn't there to talk him out of it. Now she will have to clear up the mess, again.


This discussion has been closed.