The first time I ever saw the word sectarianism was on 2nd hand Glasgow bus I was travelling in.It had a poster, No Sectarianism>the politics of Glasgow.Sectarianism is a virus.
What strikes me now, with the internet, twitter, the betting exchanges, and pb, it is laughable watching to the likes of BBC coverage with Prof Curtice still talking like this could still be in the balance / close.
That isn't a BBC bashing, more just the world has changed and the information immediate. GE2010 was the same, checking out info via internet while having the media channels on, it was like watching the Dave channel for current affairs.
What strikes me now, with the internet, twitter, the betting exchanges, and pb, it is laughable watching to the likes of BBC coverage with Prof Curtice still talking like this could still be in the balance / close.
What strikes me now, with the internet, twitter, the betting exchanges, and pb, it is laughable watching to the likes of BBC coverage with Prof Curtice still talking like this could still be in the balance / close.
Nah Curtice knows its over.
Yup, fair enough point but chosen a totally incorrect target.
Just broken out the 13-year old Glen Moray. If Yes can't win Inverclyde, they're knackered. Will they win Glasgow? Has to be doubtful. 40-45 still 1.6+.
As we discussed I/clyde was an LD fiefdom. Good win for NO but maybe not as representative of the Red (Indy?) Clyde as we thought
For all republicans the question on the ballot paper was the wrong question which is do you want Scotland to be a republic.The failure to switch from a monarchist position lost any hope Salmond may have had for winning a significant proportion of those voters who remained neutral and voted neutral by not voting.The question was the wrong question anyway.
Really? This has been the highest turnout in living memory, probably ever. I very much doubt there's anything that could have been done to persuade those who still didn't vote. In any case, the monarch's position can always be reviewed in the future. It's not as if the SNP haven't flip-flopped on it in the past.
What strikes me now, with the internet, twitter, the betting exchanges, and pb, it is laughable watching to the likes of BBC coverage with Prof Curtice still talking like this could still be in the balance / close.
He just doesn't know what to do without Exit Poll data. Big Election nights for statisticians usually just consist of producing the Exit Poll, and then using the results as they come in to verify/tweak the exit poll to produce predictions. With no exit polls to go on he is lost. Everything else is taken as hearsay/possible spinning.
Of course what they could have been doing is using the opinion poll data as a proxy exit poll to use the results as a predictor but they don't seem interested in that.
If Inverclyde and the lanarkshires are fairly close and Glasgow/Dundee are yes, then that should bump the yes% up a bit. Whether it goes above 45% or not is the big betting question.
Clackmannanshire has me worried though.
What do you need 40 - 45 or 45+
43+ is best for me.
I think you'll get 43%+ Not much more, but it'll be a bit higher than that.
My guess right now is 44-44.5, but still early days.
I still think the 5/1 that was available on 45.01 to 50% was rediculously generous.
Our unofficial target in Dundee was 45%. If Sky's estimates of the bundles is right (are they really allowed to that?) we will have met that. Considering where we were in Dundee a month ago that would be a very satisfactory result.
Yes, they can do that now that polls have closed; it's only the same as passing on activists' 'impressions' of the likely result.
@DavidPBMaddox: Senior @UK_Together figure: "That Yes rally in George Square looks daft now. Imagine how many doors all those people could have knocked".
Feels a bit like cowardice for our nationalist friends not to come on here, face the music, admit they called it wrong, and graciously accept defeat.
But noone's here, are they? I expect all sorts of excuses to be rolled out when they eventually pluck up the courage to show up.
But it's not very British behaviour, is it?
Malc has reportedly been seen over at wiktionary, attempting to back edit the definitions of turnip and erchie to include their Scottish dialect meanings as terms of effusive praise
SeanT Salmond's wife is 17 years older than him and they have no children, she seems a nice homely lady, I would expect she may not be too upset she is not going to be First Lady of Scotland but remain wife of the First Minister
For all republicans the question on the ballot paper was the wrong question which is do you want Scotland to be a republic.The failure to switch from a monarchist position lost any hope Salmond may have had for winning a significant proportion of those voters who remained neutral and voted neutral by not voting.The question was the wrong question anyway.
Really? This has been the highest turnout in living memory, probably ever. I very much doubt there's anything that could have been done to persuade those who still didn't vote. In any case, the monarch's position can always be reviewed in the future. It's not as if the SNP haven't flip-flopped on it in the past.
David sorry I have been referring to Glasgow turnout and especially the east end,well under the average for the rest of Scotland.My guess Salmond lost these on the monarchy and they accepted S/F advice to remain neutral and not vote.It was the best possible option in order not to provoke sectarianism.S/F are doing a lot of healing,not hurting,these days.It is good to see.The future of our islands is republican,sooner than you might think.
Our unofficial target in Dundee was 45%. If Sky's estimates of the bundles is right (are they really allowed to that?) we will have met that. Considering where we were in Dundee a month ago that would be a very satisfactory result.
The Inverclyde result was the first slightly disappointing result for No. But this will only affect the scale of the victory.
@david_herdson Never tried the 13? is it worth the money?
It's not bottled as standard. Mine was given as a wedding present and had been individually bottled. It comes with the year the cask it was drawn from was filled and the date of its bottling on the label. It also comes at cask strength which is given (in pen) as 60.5%. It is extremely fine but to be taken with care.
@volcanopete Sectarianism is seldom a problem these days, like a lot of bad ideas, it gets discarded as people learn. (Or not as the case may be)
I am very pleased to observe it.However,fascism is a many headed monster.It lays dormant for a while, then austerity is a serpent whose eggs hatch nazis.Greece.
Dundee 57:43. We didn't quite make our target. Still that is reasonably respectable and a lot better than we were a month ago.
My last forecast was 52.8 to 47.2 for No. I don't think I am going to be too far away if Yes keeps this trend of doing slightly better in the urban areas.
SeanT Salmond's wife is 17 years older than him and they have no children, she seems a nice homely lady, I would expect she may not be too upset she is not going to be First Lady of Scotland but remain wife of the First Minister
The Queen would remain First Lady of Scotland either way. She'd have gone from being wife of the First Minister to wife of the Prime Minster.
There's always got to be a danger that the smaller areas are unrepresentative of national swings. I assume that it's number crunching reports from all the individual counts that is what is behind the confidence that it will definitely be no?
For all republicans the question on the ballot paper was the wrong question which is do you want Scotland to be a republic.The failure to switch from a monarchist position lost any hope Salmond may have had for winning a significant proportion of those voters who remained neutral and voted neutral by not voting.The question was the wrong question anyway.
Really? This has been the highest turnout in living memory, probably ever. I very much doubt there's anything that could have been done to persuade those who still didn't vote. In any case, the monarch's position can always be reviewed in the future. It's not as if the SNP haven't flip-flopped on it in the past.
David sorry I have been referring to Glasgow turnout and especially the east end,well under the average for the rest of Scotland.My guess Salmond lost these on the monarchy and they accepted S/F advice to remain neutral and not vote.It was the best possible option in order not to provoke sectarianism.S/F are doing a lot of healing,not hurting,these days.It is good to see.The future of our islands is republican,sooner than you might think.
Nah. The monarchy will outlive me, you and William V.
@volcanopete Sectarianism is seldom a problem these days, like a lot of bad ideas, it gets discarded as people learn. (Or not as the case may be)
I am very pleased to observe it.However,fascism is a many headed monster.It lays dormant for a while, then austerity is a serpent whose eggs hatch nazis.Greece.
Do the English get a vote on their "new constitutional arrangements"? I imagine in a straight referendum there might well be a majority against taking Scottish/Welsh left wing votes out of the equation when setting English laws (as opposed to a Parliamentary majority in favour).
Sort of feels a bit like YES doing slightly better than par in Glasgow and Dundee, but will be counterbalanced by a much stronger showing for NO in Edinburgh, Aberdeen and a fair NO showing elsewhere?
@volcanopete Sectarianism is seldom a problem these days, like a lot of bad ideas, it gets discarded as people learn. (Or not as the case may be)
I am very pleased to observe it.However,fascism is a many headed monster.It lays dormant for a while, then austerity is a serpent whose eggs hatch nazis.Greece.
West dumbartonshire might be better than expected for yes.
It'd be funny if it tipped yes over 50% on the running total
My arithmetic is a bit hazy at 4.00 a.m. but reckon Yes would have been ahead if Dundee hadn't been delayed until after the Renfrewshire result (which Sky completely missed).
Edit: West Dunbartonshire 54% - 46% for Yes. I am surprised given the proximity to Faslane.
@volcanopete Sectarianism is seldom a problem these days, like a lot of bad ideas, it gets discarded as people learn. (Or not as the case may be)
I am very pleased to observe it.However,fascism is a many headed monster.It lays dormant for a while, then austerity is a serpent whose eggs hatch nazis.Greece.
Comments
Never tried the 13? is it worth the money?
That isn't a BBC bashing, more just the world has changed and the information immediate. GE2010 was the same, checking out info via internet while having the media channels on, it was like watching the Dave channel for current affairs.
Lets speculate, me first.
Government in exile?
Sectarianism is seldom a problem these days, like a lot of bad ideas, it gets discarded as people learn.
(Or not as the case may be)
(this post sponsored by MalcolmG)
Of course what they could have been doing is using the opinion poll data as a proxy exit poll to use the results as a predictor but they don't seem interested in that.
44 to 46 looking likely
So it looks like the MI5 rogue poll with Yes ahead worked thenEr, I mean good campaign
"Alex Salmond and his family have got unto a private jet and left towards an unknown destination according to the BBC."
London more likely. He will want to be making a speech with Cameron et all to show "statesmanship".
As predicted
Quite a few, Take a train and find out why?
My last forecast was 52.8 to 47.2 for No. I don't think I am going to be too far away if Yes keeps this trend of doing slightly better in the urban areas.
I really like the standard one, and not just because of its price.
( I have occasional flirtations when Islay is not looking )
It'd be funny if it tipped yes over 50% on the running total
I RECKON 45 TO 50 should be slight favourite
moremiserablethan usualon ITVEdit: I see. I've missed Renfrewshire
It's far from over ...
Or west/east split?
"Socialism is worse "
You really don't have a clue what socialism is about do you?
Edit: West Dunbartonshire 54% - 46% for Yes. I am surprised given the proximity to Faslane.
Imagine going to bed happy in the knowledge that No had romped it only to wake in the morning to Salmond ballooning round the place.