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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first four results are in – It is looking for great for

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  • The first time I ever saw the word sectarianism was on 2nd hand Glasgow bus I was travelling in.It had a poster, No Sectarianism>the politics of Glasgow.Sectarianism is a virus.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @david_herdson
    Never tried the 13? is it worth the money?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507
    edited September 2014
    What strikes me now, with the internet, twitter, the betting exchanges, and pb, it is laughable watching to the likes of BBC coverage with Prof Curtice still talking like this could still be in the balance / close.

    That isn't a BBC bashing, more just the world has changed and the information immediate. GE2010 was the same, checking out info via internet while having the media channels on, it was like watching the Dave channel for current affairs.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited September 2014
    Alex Salmond and his family have got unto a private jet and left towards an unknown destination according to the BBC.

    Lets speculate, me first.
    Government in exile?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    Inverclyde result Yes 27243 No 27329
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    What strikes me now, with the internet, twitter, the betting exchanges, and pb, it is laughable watching to the likes of BBC coverage with Prof Curtice still talking like this could still be in the balance / close.

    Nah Curtice knows its over.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Speedy said:

    Alex Salmond and his family have got unto a private jet and left towards an unknown destination according to the BBC.

    Edinburgh
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    SeanT Cameron lucky he is not facing Murphy
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    Speedy said:

    Alex Salmond and his family have got unto a private jet and left towards an unknown destination according to the BBC.

    Does it have enough fuel for Pyongyang?

  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @volcanopete
    Sectarianism is seldom a problem these days, like a lot of bad ideas, it gets discarded as people learn.
    (Or not as the case may be)
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Pulpstar said:

    What strikes me now, with the internet, twitter, the betting exchanges, and pb, it is laughable watching to the likes of BBC coverage with Prof Curtice still talking like this could still be in the balance / close.

    Nah Curtice knows its over.
    Yup, fair enough point but chosen a totally incorrect target.

  • ItajaiItajai Posts: 721

    Just broken out the 13-year old Glen Moray. If Yes can't win Inverclyde, they're knackered. Will they win Glasgow? Has to be doubtful. 40-45 still 1.6+.

    As we discussed I/clyde was an LD fiefdom. Good win for NO but maybe not as representative of the Red (Indy?) Clyde as we thought
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Central forecast: NO by 365,000
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    Inverclyde result Yes 27243 No 27329

    TIPPING POINT

    Heh.
    Turnip

    (this post sponsored by MalcolmG)
  • For all republicans the question on the ballot paper was the wrong question which is do you want Scotland to be a republic.The failure to switch from a monarchist position lost any hope Salmond may have had for winning a significant proportion of those voters who remained neutral and voted neutral by not voting.The question was the wrong question anyway.

    Really? This has been the highest turnout in living memory, probably ever. I very much doubt there's anything that could have been done to persuade those who still didn't vote. In any case, the monarch's position can always be reviewed in the future. It's not as if the SNP haven't flip-flopped on it in the past.
  • alexalex Posts: 244

    What strikes me now, with the internet, twitter, the betting exchanges, and pb, it is laughable watching to the likes of BBC coverage with Prof Curtice still talking like this could still be in the balance / close.

    He just doesn't know what to do without Exit Poll data. Big Election nights for statisticians usually just consist of producing the Exit Poll, and then using the results as they come in to verify/tweak the exit poll to produce predictions. With no exit polls to go on he is lost. Everything else is taken as hearsay/possible spinning.

    Of course what they could have been doing is using the opinion poll data as a proxy exit poll to use the results as a predictor but they don't seem interested in that.



  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Pong said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pong said:

    If Inverclyde and the lanarkshires are fairly close and Glasgow/Dundee are yes, then that should bump the yes% up a bit. Whether it goes above 45% or not is the big betting question.

    Clackmannanshire has me worried though.

    What do you need 40 - 45 or 45+

    43+ is best for me.
    I think you'll get 43%+ Not much more, but it'll be a bit higher than that.

    My guess right now is 44-44.5, but still early days.
    I still think the 5/1 that was available on 45.01 to 50% was rediculously generous.

    44 to 46 looking likely
  • ItajaiItajai Posts: 721
    SeanT said:

    Speedy said:

    Alex Salmond and his family have got unto a private jet and left towards an unknown destination according to the BBC.

    Uzbekistan.
    Been there. Would not like to meet him there.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    RodCrosby said:

    Central forecast: NO by 365,000

    That's about 11% I think.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Well off to bed, work will require some strong coffee :)
  • kle4 said:

    isam said:

    Good lord anyone in the South East heard louder thunder than this????

    Well if its the same thunder I doubt it. I'm in the next county to you!

    ;-)
    passed over the west country from 2100 onwards - I'm pretty sure the wind of the storm has knocked off part of my chimney. But I don't care, for now.

    Well if it has I hope your insurance covers it!
  • DavidL said:

    Our unofficial target in Dundee was 45%. If Sky's estimates of the bundles is right (are they really allowed to that?) we will have met that. Considering where we were in Dundee a month ago that would be a very satisfactory result.

    Yes, they can do that now that polls have closed; it's only the same as passing on activists' 'impressions' of the likely result.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    So it looks like the MI5 rogue poll with Yes ahead worked then

    Er, I mean good campaign
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    SeanT Indeed, Yes needed to be ahead in Inverclyde to really have a chance nationally
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Speedy
    "Alex Salmond and his family have got unto a private jet and left towards an unknown destination according to the BBC."

    London more likely. He will want to be making a speech with Cameron et all to show "statesmanship".
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @DavidPBMaddox: Senior @UK_Together figure: "That Yes rally in George Square looks daft now. Imagine how many doors all those people could have knocked".

    As predicted
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548

    Sean_F said:

    Where's Malcolmg? I'd like a good gloat.

    Feels a bit like cowardice for our nationalist friends not to come on here, face the music, admit they called it wrong, and graciously accept defeat.

    But noone's here, are they? I expect all sorts of excuses to be rolled out when they eventually pluck up the courage to show up.

    But it's not very British behaviour, is it?
    Malc has reportedly been seen over at wiktionary, attempting to back edit the definitions of turnip and erchie to include their Scottish dialect meanings as terms of effusive praise
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    edited September 2014
    SeanT Salmond's wife is 17 years older than him and they have no children, she seems a nice homely lady, I would expect she may not be too upset she is not going to be First Lady of Scotland but remain wife of the First Minister
  • can we have 3-4 ,more declarations and so I can go to bed?
  • Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    Inverclyde result Yes 27243 No 27329

    TIPPING POINT

    Heh.
    Turnip

    (this post sponsored by MalcolmG)
    Ha. Get lost you fanny face loser.
  • For all republicans the question on the ballot paper was the wrong question which is do you want Scotland to be a republic.The failure to switch from a monarchist position lost any hope Salmond may have had for winning a significant proportion of those voters who remained neutral and voted neutral by not voting.The question was the wrong question anyway.

    Really? This has been the highest turnout in living memory, probably ever. I very much doubt there's anything that could have been done to persuade those who still didn't vote. In any case, the monarch's position can always be reviewed in the future. It's not as if the SNP haven't flip-flopped on it in the past.
    David sorry I have been referring to Glasgow turnout and especially the east end,well under the average for the rest of Scotland.My guess Salmond lost these on the monarchy and they accepted S/F advice to remain neutral and not vote.It was the best possible option in order not to provoke sectarianism.S/F are doing a lot of healing,not hurting,these days.It is good to see.The future of our islands is republican,sooner than you might think.
  • alexalex Posts: 244
    Would still like to see a big area vote no. One big area voting yes will give a few jitters because it would still but yes in the lead.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121
    edited September 2014
    Renfrewshire - Game over, man! Game over!
  • alexalex Posts: 244
    Massive win for yes in Dundee
  • Pretty solid YES win in Dundee - 57/43% to YES.
  • Pretty convincing yes in Dundee. Any reason why they may be more nationalist than other regions?
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    YES go into national lead by 216 votes
  • Pretty convincing yes in Dundee. Any reason why they may be more nationalist than other regions?

    It's a dump?
  • Renfrewshire 53% to 47% to NO - narrower than expected?
  • ItajaiItajai Posts: 721
    Good win for YES in Dundee, is it enough?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121
    edited September 2014
    BBC reckon running total of Yes 49.1, No 50.9
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Dundee should be made an isolated state.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Sunil_Prasannan
    Quite a few, Take a train and find out why?
  • DavidL said:

    Our unofficial target in Dundee was 45%. If Sky's estimates of the bundles is right (are they really allowed to that?) we will have met that. Considering where we were in Dundee a month ago that would be a very satisfactory result.

    The Inverclyde result was the first slightly disappointing result for No. But this will only affect the scale of the victory.

    Dundee 57% -43% for Yes

  • Scott_P said:

    So it looks like the MI5 rogue poll with Yes ahead worked then

    Er, I mean good campaign

    The next three days will see us inundated with claims, few of them disinterested, of credit for their party.
  • Smarmeron said:

    @david_herdson
    Never tried the 13? is it worth the money?

    It's not bottled as standard. Mine was given as a wedding present and had been individually bottled. It comes with the year the cask it was drawn from was filled and the date of its bottling on the label. It also comes at cask strength which is given (in pen) as 60.5%. It is extremely fine but to be taken with care.
  • ItajaiItajai Posts: 721

    Renfrewshire 53% to 47% to NO - narrower than expected?

    Not sure. This is West Renfrews. The posh old Eastwood/East Renfrews has yet to come.
  • MontyMonty Posts: 346
    So relieved. The country is staying together and my family will remain British. I'm very happy.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    RodCrosby said:

    YES go into national lead by 216 votes

    Or did I mishear the Dundee result?
  • Could Murphy or any other MP from Scotland ever be UK PM with EV4EL?
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782

    BBC reckon running total of Yes 49.1, No 50.9

    My running total agrees with that.
  • alexalex Posts: 244
    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    YES go into national lead by 216 votes

    Or did I mishear the Dundee result?
    I misheard it as 63 thousand...
  • Smarmeron said:

    @volcanopete
    Sectarianism is seldom a problem these days, like a lot of bad ideas, it gets discarded as people learn.
    (Or not as the case may be)

    I am very pleased to observe it.However,fascism is a many headed monster.It lays dormant for a while, then austerity is a serpent whose eggs hatch nazis.Greece.
  • Dundee has always felt like the epicentre of nationalism. It was well known for being a hot bed of SNP support even in the 1990s.
  • Pretty convincing yes in Dundee. Any reason why they may be more nationalist than other regions?

    Yes we're awkward bastards.


  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    Dundee 57:43. We didn't quite make our target. Still that is reasonably respectable and a lot better than we were a month ago.

    My last forecast was 52.8 to 47.2 for No. I don't think I am going to be too far away if Yes keeps this trend of doing slightly better in the urban areas.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    alex said:

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    YES go into national lead by 216 votes

    Or did I mishear the Dundee result?
    I misheard it as 63 thousand...
    I got 53620:39880
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Dundee has always felt like the epicentre of nationalism. It was well known for being a hot bed of SNP support even in the 1990s.

    Don't you mean even in the 1970s?
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    YES into 36...
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @david_herdson
    I really like the standard one, and not just because of its price.
    ( I have occasional flirtations when Islay is not looking )
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    West dumbartonshire might be better than expected for yes.

    It'd be funny if it tipped yes over 50% on the running total
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782
    RodCrosby said:

    alex said:

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    YES go into national lead by 216 votes

    Or did I mishear the Dundee result?
    I misheard it as 63 thousand...
    I got 53620:39880
    Agree with your Dundee. I have No ahead by 6,384.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    Rod ITV has NO 50.9 Yes 49.1 after Dundee's big Yes vote
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Why is 40.01% to 45% favourite?

    I RECKON 45 TO 50 should be slight favourite
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    Salmond arrived at Edinburgh airport
  • HYUFD said:

    SeanT Salmond's wife is 17 years older than him and they have no children, she seems a nice homely lady, I would expect she may not be too upset she is not going to be First Lady of Scotland but remain wife of the First Minister

    The Queen would remain First Lady of Scotland either way. She'd have gone from being wife of the First Minister to wife of the Prime Minster.
  • alexalex Posts: 244
    There's always got to be a danger that the smaller areas are unrepresentative of national swings. I assume that it's number crunching reports from all the individual counts that is what is behind the confidence that it will definitely be no?
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    All turnouts must been in, BBC Scotland just flashed up a target of 1,881,672
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Nicola looks more miserable than usual on ITV
  • For all republicans the question on the ballot paper was the wrong question which is do you want Scotland to be a republic.The failure to switch from a monarchist position lost any hope Salmond may have had for winning a significant proportion of those voters who remained neutral and voted neutral by not voting.The question was the wrong question anyway.

    Really? This has been the highest turnout in living memory, probably ever. I very much doubt there's anything that could have been done to persuade those who still didn't vote. In any case, the monarch's position can always be reviewed in the future. It's not as if the SNP haven't flip-flopped on it in the past.
    David sorry I have been referring to Glasgow turnout and especially the east end,well under the average for the rest of Scotland.My guess Salmond lost these on the monarchy and they accepted S/F advice to remain neutral and not vote.It was the best possible option in order not to provoke sectarianism.S/F are doing a lot of healing,not hurting,these days.It is good to see.The future of our islands is republican,sooner than you might think.
    Nah. The monarchy will outlive me, you and William V.
  • ItajaiItajai Posts: 721

    Smarmeron said:

    @volcanopete
    Sectarianism is seldom a problem these days, like a lot of bad ideas, it gets discarded as people learn.
    (Or not as the case may be)

    I am very pleased to observe it.However,fascism is a many headed monster.It lays dormant for a while, then austerity is a serpent whose eggs hatch nazis.Greece.
    Socialism is worse
  • alexalex Posts: 244
    Do the English get a vote on their "new constitutional arrangements"? I imagine in a straight referendum there might well be a majority against taking Scottish/Welsh left wing votes out of the equation when setting English laws (as opposed to a Parliamentary majority in favour).
  • Sort of feels a bit like YES doing slightly better than par in Glasgow and Dundee, but will be counterbalanced by a much stronger showing for NO in Edinburgh, Aberdeen and a fair NO showing elsewhere?
  • Itajai said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @volcanopete
    Sectarianism is seldom a problem these days, like a lot of bad ideas, it gets discarded as people learn.
    (Or not as the case may be)

    I am very pleased to observe it.However,fascism is a many headed monster.It lays dormant for a while, then austerity is a serpent whose eggs hatch nazis.Greece.
    Socialism is worse
    Where have you experienced this?

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Lennon said:

    RodCrosby said:

    alex said:

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    YES go into national lead by 216 votes

    Or did I mishear the Dundee result?
    I misheard it as 63 thousand...
    I got 53620:39880
    Agree with your Dundee. I have No ahead by 6,384.
    I must have something else wrong then. Dang!

    Edit: I see. I've missed Renfrewshire
  • W Dunbarton goes YES!!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    WTF Yes are now ahead
  • W. Dunbartonshire: solid yes.

    It's far from over ...
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782
    Stronger YES than expected in West Dunbartonshire (54.6% on my calcs)
  • ItajaiItajai Posts: 721
    West Dumbs? Squeeky bum time?

    Or west/east split?
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Itajai
    "Socialism is worse "
    You really don't have a clue what socialism is about do you?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    edited September 2014
    W Dunbartonshire won by Yes 54% to 46% No
  • mjtmjt Posts: 33
    What's happening?
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,592
    edited September 2014
    Pong said:

    West dumbartonshire might be better than expected for yes.

    It'd be funny if it tipped yes over 50% on the running total

    My arithmetic is a bit hazy at 4.00 a.m. but reckon Yes would have been ahead if Dundee hadn't been delayed until after the Renfrewshire result (which Sky completely missed).

    Edit: West Dunbartonshire 54% - 46% for Yes. I am surprised given the proximity to Faslane.
  • ItajaiItajai Posts: 721

    Itajai said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @volcanopete
    Sectarianism is seldom a problem these days, like a lot of bad ideas, it gets discarded as people learn.
    (Or not as the case may be)

    I am very pleased to observe it.However,fascism is a many headed monster.It lays dormant for a while, then austerity is a serpent whose eggs hatch nazis.Greece.
    Socialism is worse
    Where have you experienced this?

    Start with Cambodian socialists circa 1975
  • YES now on 49.8, no 50.2, running total
  • Could Murphy or any other MP from Scotland ever be UK PM with EV4EL?

    It would be difficult but not impossible. His party would need a majority in England realistically, and English SoS's for all the devolved areas.
  • Hope you all got on at 100.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,031

    WTF Yes are now ahead

    No are just slightly ahead, 50.2%
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Will Glasgow put yes ahead only for Edingbugh to save the day
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    mjt said:

    What's happening?

    Voters did not want anybody to go to bed too soon....
  • Midlothian: it's no.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,031
    Phew
  • mjtmjt Posts: 33
    This would be possibly the funniest turnaround in th history of everything.

    Imagine going to bed happy in the knowledge that No had romped it only to wake in the morning to Salmond ballooning round the place.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Wow I am makin shitloads of money on 45 to 50 i will cash out shortly
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Solid No win in Midlothian
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    edited September 2014
    Midlothian won by No 56% to 44% Yes
  • The Tory party is going bananas again.Banging on about England is getting just as boring as banging on about Europe.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782
    Strong No from Midlothian
  • After MidLothian - YES 49, NO 51
This discussion has been closed.