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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first four results are in – It is looking for great for

SystemSystem Posts: 12,213
edited September 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first four results are in – It is looking for great for No

No wins Western Isles.That's an SNP stronghold. Very promising indeed. 9,195 Yes, 10,544 No. #indyref

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Comments

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    First!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    RobD said:

    First!

    Yes! The benefits of constantly refreshing PB!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    Game over, then.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Well done Gordon :-)
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    The Lord said go forth and I came fifth.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,452
    Congratulations to the real victors: those who have stayed up this late!
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    Would have been an interesting market on how many areas would vote Yes.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    And David Cameron vindicated in triumph. He gambled and he won.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    The wonderful Sam in Midlothian - my personal highlight of the evening. She seems to have turned it down a notch though which is disappointing.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    We're not going to get any yessers here tonight - I would have thought.

    Boring fucks. They should drink more malt.
  • alexalex Posts: 244
    Another fire alarm at Dundee count. How many are "yes" going to need to sneak in enough ballot papers? ;)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Looks like the pollsters have overestimated the Yes vote by quite a margin.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @peter_from_putney
    God may indeed ride a "Harley"...but Moses rode a Triumph.
    " And the roar of his triumph was heard all over Israel"?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Well interest is now off to Clacton in 2 weeks time.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    @Rod @AndyJS

    What do you see the final result being?

    under over 45%?
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Dundee count suspended again after fire alarm causes second evacuation -
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @johnpmcdermott: The results so far are a clear case of BBC bias.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782
    Speedy said:

    Well interest is now off to Clacton in 2 weeks time.

    I think that Heywood is potentially more interesting. UKIP coming very close there will start to worry Labour about their ignored heartlands.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Pong said:

    @Rod @AndyJS

    What do you see the final result being?

    under over 45%?

    Need a few more results to be certain about that. My guess now would be Yes 43%.
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    JBriskin said:

    We're not going to get any yessers here tonight - I would have thought.

    Boring fucks. They should drink more malt.

    Up yours Delors.

  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    AndyJS said:

    Looks like the pollsters have overestimated the Yes vote by quite a margin.

    Michael Forsyth on Scottish BBC made the point that it down to the mis-interpreting of the Don't knows by the media is more the problem. It appears that most if not all of them have just been people who did not want to say that they were voting No.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Pong said:

    @Rod @AndyJS

    What do you see the final result being?

    under over 45%?

    Looks like under to me.
  • FattyBolgerFattyBolger Posts: 299
    Call Me Dave needs to pull something serious out of the hat tomorrow re WLQ and EVEL to salvage this for the Cons....I dont expect him to. Big night for UKIP.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Let the day of reckoning begin...

    @WingsScotland: TV just switched itself off. I'm taking the hint. We gave it a shot, folks. Our countrymen and women bottled it and failed us all.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Dundee count suspended again after fire alarm causes second evacuation -

    Smoking ballots.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Are you Yes Eh_ehm??

    Fair play - you're an interesting poster.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Good lord anyone in the South East heard louder thunder than this????
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Will Salmond resign if every council area votes No?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Saltire said:


    Michael Forsyth on Scottish BBC made the point that it down to the mis-interpreting of the Don't knows by the media is more the problem. It appears that most if not all of them have just been people who did not want to say that they were voting No.

    @DPJHodges: Like I said, the don't knows weren't don't knows. They were no's.
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    JBriskin said:

    Are you Yes Eh_ehm??

    Fair play - you're an interesting poster.

    Yep i'm leaning on a break glass in Dundee.


  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    SeanT said:

    Did my drunken Teleblog on indyref

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100286886/the-union-then-may-be-saved-but-now-we-need-to-remake-british-politics/

    You get paid to write drunk. My life is officially CRAP.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    This UKIP MEP is quite errm... bumptious !
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    Where's Malcolmg? I'd like a good gloat.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,452
    It will be interesting to see how the final result compares with the historic polling on Scottish independence. In the cobwebbed recesses of my mind I had it that about 30% were in favour before all this began.

    Could all the talk, waffle and bluster over the last three years really have added only 10-15% onto the Yes vote?

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Scottish_independence_referendum,_2014#2011
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    ukip nutter on now
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Damn it

    I forget to praise MI5 in the thread header.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Fire alarm again

    Judging by the piles YES is winning Dundee by 9,000 votes
  • ItajaiItajai Posts: 721
    V surprised about Western Isles!

    Loved the BBC comment: I know Welsh so I should understand.. I personally didn't but could pick up the YES nine (thou) and NO (thou)....
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited September 2014
    Oh, UKIP scot MEP on BBC is amazing in confrontational terms.
    "LD's to be wiped out."
    "Salmond is like Robert Mugabe. "
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Damn it

    I forget to praise MI5 in the thread header.

    No, thats for if Glasgow votes No ;)
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    AndyJS said:

    Will Salmond resign if every council area votes No?

    We can live in hope. He can then go and slink off where he belongs.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @RobD
    "You get paid to write drunk. My life is officially CRAP. "

    Only for a given degree of crapness? Statistically there will be some whose lives are far more crap than yours.
  • ItajaiItajai Posts: 721
    edited September 2014
    Skynow suggesting NO will win..
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,116
    Chris_A said:

    AndyJS said:

    Will Salmond resign if every council area votes No?

    We can live in hope. He can then go and slink off where he belongs.
    Will he rue the day?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    Smarmeron said:

    @RobD
    "You get paid to write drunk. My life is officially CRAP. "

    Only for a given degree of crapness? Statistically there will be some whose lives are far more crap than yours.

    That is indeed true, and I should count my (much limited compared to SeanT's) blessings!
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited September 2014
    If Inverclyde and the lanarkshires are fairly close and Glasgow/Dundee are yes, then that should bump the yes% up a bit. Whether it goes above 45% or not is the big betting question.

    Clackmannanshire has me worried though.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    Speedy said:

    Well interest is now off to Clacton in 2 weeks time.

    3 weeks. During which the Tories will amuse themselves by accusing Cameron of giving away too much to the Scots....
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    Eugh. That Scottish UKIP MEP is a really nasty piece of work
  • Oliver_PBOliver_PB Posts: 397
    The UKIP bloke on BBC One is a complete fruitcake.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    edited September 2014
    Itajai said:


    Loved the BBC comment: I know Welsh so I should understand.. I personally didn't but could pick up the YES nine (thou) and NO (thou)....

    It's basically the Ulster dialect of Irish, it's very very different from Welsh (godelic rather than brythonic).
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    alex said:

    Another fire alarm at Dundee count. How many are "yes" going to need to sneak in enough ballot papers? ;)

    It is just down the road from Glenrothes.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Smarmeron said:

    @RobD
    "You get paid to write drunk. My life is officially CRAP. "

    Only for a given degree of crapness? Statistically there will be some whose lives are far more crap than yours.

    >implying you wouldn't like to get paid to write drunk

    tick, tock, boom loser.

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    David UKIP man is a total Prat
  • ItajaiItajai Posts: 721
    edited September 2014
    Murphy now talking as if NO won
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Sun_Politics: You snooze, you lose... Salmond sleeps as Yes hopes fade: http://t.co/oL7HPrVS7i http://t.co/uBYxcAduSY

    Has Rupe been on the phone?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Pong said:

    If Inverclyde and the lanarkshires are fairly close and Glasgow/Dundee are yes, then that should bump the yes% up a bit. Whether it goes above 45% or not is the big betting question.

    Clackmannanshire has me worried though.

    What do you need 40 - 45 or 45+

    43+ is best for me.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    UKIP man reminds me of another small party that used to appear sometimes on election night... Mr carswell must live this guy
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,592
    JBriskin said:

    We're not going to get any yessers here tonight - I would have thought.

    Boring fucks. They should drink more malt.

    I voted Yes, and my bet on Yes 45% - 50% is looking iffy now.
    On the plus side, I think this boosts the chances of LD holds next year in Argyll and Gordon against the SNP.
  • ItajaiItajai Posts: 721
    Neil said:

    Itajai said:


    Loved the BBC comment: I know Welsh so I should understand.. I personally didn't but could pick up the YES nine (thou) and NO (thou)....

    It's basically the Ulster dialect of Irish, it's very very different from Welsh (godelic rather than brythonic).
    Yes, was a bit surprised he thought the two branches of celtic were mutually intelligible.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,689
    Sean_F said:

    Where's Malcolmg? I'd like a good gloat.

    Feels a bit like cowardice for our nationalist friends not to come on here, face the music, admit they called it wrong, and graciously accept defeat.

    But noone's here, are they? I expect all sorts of excuses to be rolled out when they eventually pluck up the courage to show up.

    But it's not very British behaviour, is it?
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited September 2014
    Pulpstar said:

    Pong said:

    If Inverclyde and the lanarkshires are fairly close and Glasgow/Dundee are yes, then that should bump the yes% up a bit. Whether it goes above 45% or not is the big betting question.

    Clackmannanshire has me worried though.

    What do you need 40 - 45 or 45+

    43+ is best for me.
    I'm just seeing some value in the 4.5 on 45-50% on BF. Should be more like 5/2 imo.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Saltire said:

    AndyJS said:

    Looks like the pollsters have overestimated the Yes vote by quite a margin.

    Michael Forsyth on Scottish BBC made the point that it down to the mis-interpreting of the Don't knows by the media is more the problem. It appears that most if not all of them have just been people who did not want to say that they were voting No.
    I'm not sure that is right. Does it chime with what the canvassers from both sides found? Why should people be shy when anonymously completing opinion polls but not when talking to canvassers standing two feet away? Is it not more likely that don't knows broke late for no, either because it was the status quo or because of the late positive twist of the Better Together campaign?
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    No_Offence_Alan said:

    JBriskin said:

    We're not going to get any yessers here tonight - I would have thought.

    Boring fucks. They should drink more malt.

    I voted Yes, and my bet on Yes 45% - 50% is looking iffy now.
    On the plus side, I think this boosts the chances of LD holds next year in Argyll and Gordon against the SNP.
    I made the same bet!!! We're probably the only two excited people in Scotland...

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Fire alarm again

    Judging by the piles YES is winning Dundee by 9,000 votes

    The best album ever to come out of Dundee was arguably The Associates 1982 best-seller "Sulk".
  • ItajaiItajai Posts: 721
    Yank friend of mine just said they'd be "crazy" to go solo...

    He's a drinking friend too...
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    West Dunbartonshire declaration imminent.
  • ItajaiItajai Posts: 721
    Casino_Royale said:

    Sean_F said:

    Where's Malcolmg? I'd like a good gloat.

    Feels a bit like cowardice for our nationalist friends not to come on here, face the music, admit they called it wrong, and graciously accept defeat.

    But noone's here, are they? I expect all sorts of excuses to be rolled out when they eventually pluck up the courage to show up.

    But it's not very British behaviour, is it?
    It it's a late less they'll be back.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507
    edited September 2014
    UKIP guy was a nutter, but when will lefties learn screaming racist as soon as a UKIP peson comes on wont work, if they don't want UKIP to gain popularity.

    The YES campaigner then just got into a screaming match with him, and both look like chumps. Jim Murphy was doing well, but let the mask slip at the end.

    I don't think left leaning metro elite types get that screaming racist / little Englander at them actually has the opposite effect on a large percentage of the electorate that don't see what a lot of UKIP claim they stand for as objectionable / racist.

    They need to fight UKIP on the flaws in their policies.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @RobD
    Look on the bright side, Sean gets to pay 10 times the price you do for a bottle of wine, and etiquette demands that his guests tell them it tastes "divine", even though it reminds them of sweaty socks.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Casino_Royale said:

    Sean_F said:

    Where's Malcolmg? I'd like a good gloat.

    Feels a bit like cowardice for our nationalist friends not to come on here, face the music, admit they called it wrong, and graciously accept defeat.

    But noone's here, are they? I expect all sorts of excuses to be rolled out when they eventually pluck up the courage to show up.

    But it's not very British behaviour, is it?
    Is the idea that they might have better things to do and better places to be completely outlandish?

  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    Itajai said:

    V surprised about Western Isles!

    Loved the BBC comment: I know Welsh so I should understand.. I personally didn't but could pick up the YES nine (thou) and NO (thou)....

    yes I got the numbers too. "Referendum" is also the Welsh word too.

  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    bigjohnowls said:

    David UKIP man is a total Prat

    Looked like the only one to have the guts to headbutt the SNP.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Pulpstar said:

    Pong said:

    If Inverclyde and the lanarkshires are fairly close and Glasgow/Dundee are yes, then that should bump the yes% up a bit. Whether it goes above 45% or not is the big betting question.

    Clackmannanshire has me worried though.

    What do you need 40 - 45 or 45+

    43+ is best for me.
    I think you'll get 43%+ Not much more, but it'll be a bit higher than that.

    My guess right now is 44-44.5, but still early days.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Freeeeeeddooooommmmm

    @DailyMailUK: Salmond looks miserable tonight http://t.co/E2Evr15lFr #IndyRef http://t.co/oQB12mPoC7
  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    isam said:

    Good lord anyone in the South East heard louder thunder than this????

    Well if its the same thunder I doubt it. I'm in the next county to you!

    ;-)
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Smarmeron said:

    @RobD
    Look on the bright side, Sean gets to pay 10 times the price you do for a bottle of wine, and etiquette demands that his guests tell them it tastes "divine", even though it reminds them of sweaty socks.

    Oh my Smarmy - You are such a C - I can sympathise with Malky and his semi-infamous german wine - But this is so out of order it is unreal.

    Bet you've even had a neo-cider in pub eh??

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,689
    Neil said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Sean_F said:

    Where's Malcolmg? I'd like a good gloat.

    Feels a bit like cowardice for our nationalist friends not to come on here, face the music, admit they called it wrong, and graciously accept defeat.

    But noone's here, are they? I expect all sorts of excuses to be rolled out when they eventually pluck up the courage to show up.

    But it's not very British behaviour, is it?
    Is the idea that they might have better things to do and better places to be completely outlandish?

    Nice try. You think if YES we're winning they'd be too 'busy' to post here?
  • ItajaiItajai Posts: 721
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    UKIP guy was a nutter, but when will lefties learn screaming racist as soon as a UKIP peson comes on wont work, if they don't want UKIP to gain popularity.

    The YES campaigner then just got into a screaming match with him, and both look like chumps. Jim Murphy was doing well, but let the mask slip at the end.

    I don't think left leaning metro elite types get that screaming racist / little Englander at them actually has the opposite effect on a large percentage of the electorate that don't see what a lot of UKIP claim they stand for as objectionable / racist.

    They need to fight UKIP on the flaws in their policies.

    it comforts the left to think all UKIP voters are poor, uneducated, inward looking, etc etc.
    Living in a posh area of Surrey I can say that is not the case.
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    For all republicans the question on the ballot paper was the wrong question which is do you want Scotland to be a republic.The failure to switch from a monarchist position lost any hope Salmond may have had for winning a significant proportion of those voters who remained neutral and voted neutral by not voting.The question was the wrong question anyway.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,116
    Tight in Inverclyde!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    Salmond reportedly on a private jet... destination:unknown
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited September 2014
    Why is the BBC having a guy from America talking about the huge list of America's problems and what does anything of ISIS, Ukraine and Russia have anything to do with Dundee or anywhere else?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    Close!!
  • ItajaiItajai Posts: 721
    Inverclyde v close!!
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Inverclyde was 11/4 to be Yes, so a good result for Yes there.
  • ItajaiItajai Posts: 721
    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    SeanT said:

    Did my drunken Teleblog on indyref

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100286886/the-union-then-may-be-saved-but-now-we-need-to-remake-british-politics/

    You get paid to write drunk. My life is officially CRAP.
    I am seriously drunk, as well. Two bottles in.

    I may need to retire soon. Which is good. I just never expected the referendum to be so clear cut.

    GLORY BE.

    The UK is saved. This is a GOOD DAY.
    Try the alcodroid app!
  • pinball13pinball13 Posts: 83
    Thought yes had edged that one.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Inverclyde 50/50
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @JBriskin
    I had a very nice cider in a pub recently, I have no idea what it was, but it was strong enough,while still tasting of fresh apples.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited September 2014
    Artist said:

    Inverclyde was 11/4 to be Yes, so a good result for Yes there.

    I know. I bet on it :)

    I'm on inverclyde as highest yes council @ 66/1 - Glasgow/dundee is sure to beat it though...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I thought Inverclyde would be No 53%, Yes 47%.

    So a bit of a surprise there.
  • ItajaiItajai Posts: 721
    44/55 now respectable- give me a breeeeeeak!!!
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Inverclyde - 50.08% NO - couldn't get much closer.

    Five results in - five NO's on the board.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Smarmeron said:

    @JBriskin
    I had a very nice cider in a pub recently, I have no idea what it was, but it was strong enough,while still tasting of fresh apples.

    So I called it right - another PB point for me - and a minus Briksy point for you.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,116
    RobD said:

    Salmond reportedly on a private jet... destination:unknown

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=TZ3Ibp9LQPM
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    Our unofficial target in Dundee was 45%. If Sky's estimates of the bundles is right (are they really allowed to that?) we will have met that. Considering where we were in Dundee a month ago that would be a very satisfactory result.

    The Inverclyde result was the first slightly disappointing result for No. But this will only affect the scale of the victory.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    manofkent2014 said:

    isam said:

    Good lord anyone in the South East heard louder thunder than this????

    Well if its the same thunder I doubt it. I'm in the next county to you!

    ;-)
    passed over the west country from 2100 onwards - I'm pretty sure the wind of the storm has knocked off part of my chimney. But I don't care, for now.

  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    Just broken out the 13-year old Glen Moray. If Yes can't win Inverclyde, they're knackered. Will they win Glasgow? Has to be doubtful. 40-45 still 1.6+.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @JBriskin
    I can be generous, I am still well ahead by my count....... ;-)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Inverclyde includes Greenock and Port Glasgow, two of the most run-down and depressed towns in Scotland.
This discussion has been closed.