Wouldnt a phone poll miss the many poorer Scots who have got rid of their landline for a mobile phone contract?...many of the poorest here in Wales are increasingly removing their phone lines...anecdotal i know
Remind me, if the Union breaks up, who would be the Conservative and Unionist PM in charge of the Union at the time?
It's probably not going to break up, but, if it does, then Michael Ancram will be yet another Conservative spokesman from the early days of the Blair government who turned out to be absolutely right:
The Government's proposals carry within them the virus that will begin to eat away, and eventually cause to unravel, the bonds that hold the United Kingdom together. It is not written into the White Paper, but the virus is there. The proposals are the first step on the way to an independent Scotland and the break-up of the United Kingdom.
Remind me, if the Union breaks up, who would be the Conservative and Unionist PM in charge of the Union at the time?
It's probably not going to break up, but, if it does, then Michael Ancram will be yet another Conservative spokesman from the early days of the Blair government who turned out to be absolutely right:
The Government's proposals carry within them the virus that will begin to eat away, and eventually cause to unravel, the bonds that hold the United Kingdom together. It is not written into the White Paper, but the virus is there. The proposals are the first step on the way to an independent Scotland and the break-up of the United Kingdom.
Why do you think that Cameron has shown no interest in sorting out the English democratic deficit during his nine years as Conservative leader and four years as prime minister ?
By doing so he would have ensured
A stronger Union (which clearly does mean much to him) A happier England A happier Scotland Electoral benefits for the Conservative party
Instead he has allowed the virus described by Ancram to remain untreated.
Because there has not been any real possibility of doing so, without a big majority. Even with a majority it would not be easy. It's not for lack of will.
About a year after the last election, I attended a dinner where a cabinet minister whose brief covered this was speaking, and I was able to chat with the said minister before the dinner. I asked what was being done about the West Lothian Question. The answer was very interesting. The first part of the response was to point out that it mattered only in certain circumstances. If either main party has a reasonable majority, it's of academic interest only. The second part was to point out that, yes, the coalition (if the Conservatives could get LibDem support - not obvious) could do something about it quite easily - but it would be equally easy for Labour to undo it next time they could muster a bare majority (including Scottish MPs) in the UK parliament.
The truth is, it's a God-awful mess, and there is no easy solution without the consent of all the parties. I hope that we might finally get some progress on this as part of the fall-out from IndyRef. We shall see.
Remind me, if the Union breaks up, who would be the Conservative and Unionist PM in charge of the Union at the time?
It's probably not going to break up, but, if it does, then Michael Ancram will be yet another Conservative spokesman from the early days of the Blair government who turned out to be absolutely right:
The Government's proposals carry within them the virus that will begin to eat away, and eventually cause to unravel, the bonds that hold the United Kingdom together. It is not written into the White Paper, but the virus is there. The proposals are the first step on the way to an independent Scotland and the break-up of the United Kingdom.
So, it looks like a marginal NO. Not convinced. I've been through so many referenda campaigns in France and the status quo is always underestimated by pollsters. Combine that with heavy advance postal voting when the NO lead was clearer and the higher PTV of elderly and female voters and it's not marginal at all.
I expect a clear NO. Then, we have to clean up this mess. A highly divided Scotland and a resentful England is not a happy prospect. As disunited a Kingdom as if YES were to win, but with the added problem that we now have to live together for at least a generation.
There are simply no winners and the only people to come out of this with any credit are Gordon Brown and Danny Alexander.
Representative Democracy should always be favoured over Direct Democracy for these reasons. We live in a disinformed society and the rule of those who are the least uninformed is better than the tyranny of populism.
And the Tories then embraced devolution and accepted they had been mistaken to oppose it. So clearly they rejected the Ancram analysis.
I'm not sure that they rejected the analysis, but, either way, that doesn't alter the fact that it is Labour who are responsible for the constitutional mess which Blair's boshed-up devolution landed us with.
Wouldnt a phone poll miss the many poorer Scots who have got rid of their landline for a mobile phone contract?...many of the poorest here in Wales are increasingly removing their phone lines...anecdotal i know
Pretty sure I saw the Survation phone poll called both land and mobile phones.
Remind me, if the Union breaks up, who would be the Conservative and Unionist PM in charge of the Union at the time?
It's probably not going to break up, but, if it does, then Michael Ancram will be yet another Conservative spokesman from the early days of the Blair government who turned out to be absolutely right:
The Government's proposals carry within them the virus that will begin to eat away, and eventually cause to unravel, the bonds that hold the United Kingdom together. It is not written into the White Paper, but the virus is there. The proposals are the first step on the way to an independent Scotland and the break-up of the United Kingdom.
If the Conservative and Unionist PM David Cameron doesn't oversee the breakup of his Union, he will have a hell of job trying to reconcile his Party with Gordon Brown's DevoMore that ultimately saved the Union.
Embarrassing yourself again if you think "Conservative and Unionist" is making some kind of point. Wrong Union. Stick to misogyny.
Isn't she from somewhere up North? She also started wetting her pants about Boris being mayor of London despite not being from London. [snip]
I've no idea were Westwood originated from, but she's certainly lived in London for many, many decades - she set up a shop in King's Road Chelsea in the early 1970's, - I saw it regularly when I lived just up the road in Beaufort Street.
The networks have started covering the Scottish referendum this week. At my Rotary Club meeting today, the only two issues for discussion were the NFL (Adrian Peterson, Ray Rice, Greg Hardy and domestic violence and child abuse), and the Scottish referendum.
Sorry but I didn't think Brown was that wonderful. He sounds like a demagogue. Perhaps that's the sort of thing that goes down well at the moment with the supposed intimidation coming from the Yes camp. It doesn't make me any more relaxed about what might happen come Friday morning.
The Shetlands and Orkneys are a peculiar case, they want independence from scotland.
Yes but how will they vote tomorrow? I thought both would vote No pretty heavily.
Since they don't want to be part of scotland, voting NO is the only option, as voting YES would mean that they get their hated Holyrood parliament on top of their heads, they would prefer Westminster to put a limit on Holyrood's say over their land. It's a case of the enemy of my enemy is my friend.
Any Arsenal fans on here? Who was the better manager, Don Howe or Bruce Rioch?
In footy terms ;-)
Which one got the ManU of nations relegated (brown) and which one got them promoted again with a record points haul(Cameron)but he might after let the star player leave on the down side ;-)
Because there has not been any real possibility of doing so, without a big majority.
...which makes Cameron a lucky general.
Circumstances have now presented their selves which make EV4EL seem like it must happen.
Cameron hasn't given the commitment to Barnett that some seem to be imagining. He's told the Scots they can fund their health service how they choose using their powers to increase Scottish taxes.
Just saw the Brown speech and thought it was pretty good. The thing with Brown is that while he was flawed there was no doubt he was/is a heavyweight politician. He may not have saved the world but could save the Union. Makes Cameron/Milliband/Clegg look like lightweights.
"In the Year of our Lord 2014, patriots of Scotland - starving and outnumbered - charged the fields of Ballot Boxes. They voted like warrior poets; they voted like Scotsmen, and won their freedom."
The Shetlands and Orkneys are a peculiar case, they want independence from scotland.
Yes but how will they vote tomorrow? I thought both would vote No pretty heavily.
Since they don't want to be part of scotland, voting NO is the only option, as voting YES would mean that they get their hated Holyrood parliament on top of their heads, they would prefer Westminster to put a limit on Holyrood's say over their land. It's a case of the enemy of my enemy is my friend.
Pleased to hear it. My prediction is Shetland 81% No and Orkney 77% No.
And the Tories then embraced devolution and accepted they had been mistaken to oppose it. So clearly they rejected the Ancram analysis.
I'm not sure that they rejected the analysis, but, either way, that doesn't alter the fact that it is Labour who are responsible for the constitutional mess which Blair's boshed-up devolution landed us with.
That would be complete and utter nonsense. You would be better off figuring out why so many people dislike your party so much they are prepared to leave the UK.
Why do you think that Cameron has shown no interest in sorting out the English democratic deficit during his nine years as Conservative leader and four years as prime minister ?
By doing so he would have ensured
A stronger Union (which clearly does mean much to him) A happier England A happier Scotland Electoral benefits for the Conservative party
Instead he has allowed the virus described by Ancram to remain untreated.
Because there has not been any real possibility of doing so, without a big majority. Even with a majority it would not be easy. It's not for lack of will.
About a year after the last election, I attended a dinner where a cabinet minister whose brief covered this was speaking, and I was able to chat with the said minister before the dinner. I asked what was being done about the West Lothian Question. The answer was very interesting. The first part of the response was to point out that it mattered only in certain circumstances. If either main party has a reasonable majority, it's of academic interest only. The second part was to point out that, yes, the coalition (if the Conservatives could get LibDem support - not obvious) could do something about it quite easily - but it would be equally easy for Labour to undo it next time they could muster a bare majority (including Scottish MPs) in the UK parliament.
The truth is, it's a God-awful mess, and there is no easy solution without the consent of all the parties. I hope that we might finally get some progress on this as part of the fall-out from IndyRef. We shall see.
Thanks for the response.
I take your point about a future Labour government being able to reverse EV4EL, which is why I've always preferred having a proper English parliament.
I think there's also an aspect that Cameron is embarrassed by his Englishness, especially his particular posh southern Tory branch of Englishness. I think this insecurity feeds through into numerous areas of his political thoughts.
Interesting how people are talking up Brown;s performances yet those same people savaged him on these very pages......"no more boom and bust" he cried....and those on the left and right savaged him The left claim he out thatchered thatcher. here....so amazing the same man is lauded here
The Shetlands and Orkneys are a peculiar case, they want independence from scotland.
Any polling on how the Orkney & Shetland Indy parties are doing?
You're very exercised by the politics of Orkney & Shetland, have you ever visited them or are you just interested in getting your money grubbing hands on their resources?
"Mr Scott challenged the First Minister to “accept that fact”. When Shetland's local authority held a referendum 35 years ago asking if residents wanted to be part of an independent Scotland, the result was nine to one against."
"The oil belongs to us. We don't have to argue about that. It is ours," said Shetlander Hazel Mackenzie, 43, who works in the livestock auction house in Shetland's main town of Lerwick."
"I'd like to see ultimately something in Shetland on the Faroese model or possibly Guernsey or Jersey or the Isle of Man," said Ian Gidney, 57, who runs an online leather retailer."
""Scotland will need Shetland more than Shetland will need Scotland," said Caroline Miller, 56, an ex-Shetland councillor who now helps run a bed and breakfast hotel."
So, it looks like a marginal NO. Not convinced. I've been through so many referenda campaigns in France and the status quo is always underestimated by pollsters. Combine that with heavy advance postal voting when the NO lead was clearer and the higher PTV of elderly and female voters and it's not marginal at all.
I expect a clear NO. Then, we have to clean up this mess. A highly divided Scotland and a resentful England is not a happy prospect. As disunited a Kingdom as if YES were to win, but with the added problem that we now have to live together for at least a generation.
There are simply no winners and the only people to come out of this with any credit are Gordon Brown and Danny Alexander.
Representative Democracy should always be favoured over Direct Democracy for these reasons. We live in a disinformed society and the rule of those who are the least uninformed is better than the tyranny of populism.
Personally, I blame Mel Gibson.
How in the name of Ishmael has Danny Alexander come out of this with credit?!
Tomorrow night in the wee hours, is there any way of telling how well it is going for each side after the first three or four of results are announced, so that there is more information around at 2 or 3 am? Could they compare the actual, announced, results with (say) the last 10 aggregated results from opinion poll data in each region?
"I just want to mention the Truman/Dewey presidential contest in 1948. "
I still think the closest parallel is Quebec 1995. The last three polls had "Oui" well ahead, yet "Non" still nicked it.
"Oui" had a charismatic leader in Lucien Bouchard, just as "Yes" do in Alex Salmond. The opposition was divided & dispirited. The Canadian premier (Chretien, a rich Toronto lawyer) was disliked in Quebec, as much as Cameron is disliked in Scotland.
"Oui" was strongest in the heavily working class areas. and "oui" had exactly the same problems with the currency question
There are so many parallels, even down to suggestions that Quebec be partitioned in the event of a "Oui" with Western Montreal, the Townships and Nouveau Quebec returning to Canada.
So, I must admit I think Scotland will play out the same way.
So, it looks like a marginal NO. Not convinced. I've been through so many referenda campaigns in France and the status quo is always underestimated by pollsters. Combine that with heavy advance postal voting when the NO lead was clearer and the higher PTV of elderly and female voters and it's not marginal at all.
I expect a clear NO. Then, we have to clean up this mess. A highly divided Scotland and a resentful England is not a happy prospect. As disunited a Kingdom as if YES were to win, but with the added problem that we now have to live together for at least a generation.
There are simply no winners and the only people to come out of this with any credit are Gordon Brown and Danny Alexander.
Representative Democracy should always be favoured over Direct Democracy for these reasons. We live in a disinformed society and the rule of those who are the least uninformed is better than the tyranny of populism.
Personally, I blame Mel Gibson.
How in the name of Ishmael has Danny Alexander come out of this with credit?!
He did some skillful climbing up a stick on behalf of his organgrinder.
Tomorrow night in the wee hours, is there any way of telling how well it is going for each side after the first three or four of results are announced, so that there is more information around at 2 or 3 am? Could they compare the actual, announced, results with (say) the last 10 aggregated results from opinion poll data in each region?
I hope to do this, with Uniform and probabilistic projections, amongst others...
The Shetlands and Orkneys are a peculiar case, they want independence from scotland.
Any polling on how the Orkney & Shetland Indy parties are doing?
You're very exercised by the politics of Orkney & Shetland, have you ever visited them or are you just interested in getting your money grubbing hands on their resources?
Both. You're very exercised by the politics of a country you evidently know nothing about. Are you just interested in getting your money grubbing hands on our resources?
Pleased to hear it. My prediction is Shetland 81% No and Orkney 77% No.
Andy what do you base your predictions on?
Shetland and Orkney have their own independence movements from scotland. Plus, Shetland held a local referendum, I think 37 years ago, if they want to be part of an independent scotland with NO winning 9 to 1.
Tomorrow night in the wee hours, is there any way of telling how well it is going for each side after the first three or four of results are announced, so that there is more information around at 2 or 3 am? Could they compare the actual, announced, results with (say) the last 10 aggregated results from opinion poll data in each region?
Or v the last Scottish parliament results? Assigning snp to yes and others to no - with an estimate reallocation of others to yes?
"Mr Scott challenged the First Minister to “accept that fact”. When Shetland's local authority held a referendum 35 years ago asking if residents wanted to be part of an independent Scotland, the result was nine to one against."
"The oil belongs to us. We don't have to argue about that. It is ours," said Shetlander Hazel Mackenzie, 43, who works in the livestock auction house in Shetland's main town of Lerwick."
"I'd like to see ultimately something in Shetland on the Faroese model or possibly Guernsey or Jersey or the Isle of Man," said Ian Gidney, 57, who runs an online leather retailer."
""Scotland will need Shetland more than Shetland will need Scotland," said Caroline Miller, 56, an ex-Shetland councillor who now helps run a bed and breakfast hotel."
"Representative Democracy should always be favoured over Direct Democracy for these reasons. We live in a disinformed society and the rule of those who are the least uninformed is better than the tyranny of populism."
Surely the mass media takes some blame for misinforming the people no?
Are we forever to be treated like children with only 640MPS ruling 62million.
"Mr Scott challenged the First Minister to “accept that fact”. When Shetland's local authority held a referendum 35 years ago asking if residents wanted to be part of an independent Scotland, the result was nine to one against."
"The oil belongs to us. We don't have to argue about that. It is ours," said Shetlander Hazel Mackenzie, 43, who works in the livestock auction house in Shetland's main town of Lerwick."
"I'd like to see ultimately something in Shetland on the Faroese model or possibly Guernsey or Jersey or the Isle of Man," said Ian Gidney, 57, who runs an online leather retailer."
""Scotland will need Shetland more than Shetland will need Scotland," said Caroline Miller, 56, an ex-Shetland councillor who now helps run a bed and breakfast hotel."
Oh the irony.
So no polling then.
No, just actual votes.
"When Shetland's local authority held a referendum 35 years ago asking if residents wanted to be part of an independent Scotland, the result was nine to one against."
Tomorrow night in the wee hours, is there any way of telling how well it is going for each side after the first three or four of results are announced, so that there is more information around at 2 or 3 am? Could they compare the actual, announced, results with (say) the last 10 aggregated results from opinion poll data in each region?
I hope to do this, with Uniform and probabilistic projections, amongst others...
Oh, great. Would make it more exciting to watch. Have you got the data from all the polls put together already, for this purpose? Are you doing it here in the comments, or on twitter or some other place (sorry if I should know about you - I am new here!) Wonder if the BBC will do this.
The Shetlands and Orkneys are a peculiar case, they want independence from scotland.
Any polling on how the Orkney & Shetland Indy parties are doing?
You're very exercised by the politics of Orkney & Shetland, have you ever visited them or are you just interested in getting your money grubbing hands on their resources?
Both. You're very exercised by the politics of a country you evidently know nothing about. Are you just interested in getting your money grubbing hands on our resources?
Tomorrow night in the wee hours, is there any way of telling how well it is going for each side after the first three or four of results are announced, so that there is more information around at 2 or 3 am? Could they compare the actual, announced, results with (say) the last 10 aggregated results from opinion poll data in each region?
Or v the last Scottish parliament results? Assigning snp to yes and others to no - with an estimate reallocation of others to yes?
The problem with that is that so many Labour voters seem to have swung to Yes and apparently some SNP to no, so this cuts across parties in a complex way.
Tomorrow night in the wee hours, is there any way of telling how well it is going for each side after the first three or four of results are announced, so that there is more information around at 2 or 3 am? Could they compare the actual, announced, results with (say) the last 10 aggregated results from opinion poll data in each region?
I hope to do this, with Uniform and probabilistic projections, amongst others...
Oh, great. Would make it more exciting to watch. Have you got the data from all the polls put together already, for this purpose? Are you doing it here in the comments, or on twitter or some other place (sorry if I should know about you - I am new here!) Wonder if the BBC will do this.
AndyJS and numbercruncher have also put up spreadsheets with expected results by LA so you can gauge how results are going against expectations over the course of the night. (And maybe even use that to trade profitably!)
That would be complete and utter nonsense. You would be better off figuring out why so many people dislike your party so much they are prepared to leave the UK.
Tory vote in Scotland 2010 : 16.7% (out of 2.5 million voters) Labour vote in SE England 2010: 16.2% (out of 4.2 million voters) Labour vote in SW England 2010: 15.4% (out of 2.8 million voters)
In Quebec they broke for No in the polling booth leading to an overstatement of Yes's by final polls...but...in Quebec this was the question:
"Do you agree that Quebec should become sovereign after having made a formal offer to Canada for a new economic and political partnership within the scope of the bill respecting the future of Quebec and of the agreement signed on June 12, 1995?"
That question is enough to surely make you lose the will to live. I could barely read it to the end. Alot of voters will have just marked "yes" or "no" without engaging with the question.
Tomorrow the question is:
"Should Scotland be an independent country?"
That's a very different question in terms of likely emotional reaction by voters...
I don't think we can necessarily assume we will see a "Quebec effect" breaking to no in the ballot booth tomorrow.
The market seems to be pricing in the "Quebec effect" however.
Tomorrow night in the wee hours, is there any way of telling how well it is going for each side after the first three or four of results are announced, so that there is more information around at 2 or 3 am? Could they compare the actual, announced, results with (say) the last 10 aggregated results from opinion poll data in each region?
I hope to do this, with Uniform and probabilistic projections, amongst others...
Oh, great. Would make it more exciting to watch. Have you got the data from all the polls put together already, for this purpose? Are you doing it here in the comments, or on twitter or some other place (sorry if I should know about you - I am new here!) Wonder if the BBC will do this.
AndyJS and numbercruncher have also put up spreadsheets with expected results by LA so you can gauge how results are going against expectations over the course of the night. (And maybe even use that to trade profitably!)
Thanks. We should soon know if the polls are getting it wrong, then.
"Mr Scott challenged the First Minister to “accept that fact”. When Shetland's local authority held a referendum 35 years ago asking if residents wanted to be part of an independent Scotland, the result was nine to one against."
"The oil belongs to us. We don't have to argue about that. It is ours," said Shetlander Hazel Mackenzie, 43, who works in the livestock auction house in Shetland's main town of Lerwick."
"I'd like to see ultimately something in Shetland on the Faroese model or possibly Guernsey or Jersey or the Isle of Man," said Ian Gidney, 57, who runs an online leather retailer."
""Scotland will need Shetland more than Shetland will need Scotland," said Caroline Miller, 56, an ex-Shetland councillor who now helps run a bed and breakfast hotel."
Oh the irony.
So no polling then.
No, just actual votes.
"When Shetland's local authority held a referendum 35 years ago asking if residents wanted to be part of an independent Scotland, the result was nine to one against."
I look forward* to your analysis of the run up to the 2015 GE based on the 1979 election.
"Do you agree that Quebec should become sovereign after having made a formal offer to Canada for a new economic and political partnership within the scope of the bill respecting the future of Quebec and of the agreement signed on June 12, 1995?"
I've read so much about that referendum (including thousands of posts here!) and that's the first time I've seen the actual wording! Wow, what would the Electoral Commission made of that?
Tomorrow night in the wee hours, is there any way of telling how well it is going for each side after the first three or four of results are announced, so that there is more information around at 2 or 3 am? Could they compare the actual, announced, results with (say) the last 10 aggregated results from opinion poll data in each region?
Or v the last Scottish parliament results? Assigning snp to yes and others to no - with an estimate reallocation of others to yes?
The problem with that is that so many Labour voters seem to have swung to Yes and apparently some SNP to no, so this cuts across parties in a complex way.
"That question is enough to surely make you lose the will to live. I could barely read it to the end. A lot of voters will have just marked "yes" or "no" without engaging with the question."
I am not so sure. This was a second referendum, and the constitutional position of Quebec had been under intense debate for over a decade prior to 1995, so it is difficult to see how voters would not have engaged with the question.
The options Oui and Non are readily understandable even if you didn't read the rather lawyerly question.
But, I guess you are right, the market must have priced the Quebec factor in.
Remind me, if the Union breaks up, who would be the Conservative and Unionist PM in charge of the Union at the time?
It's probably not going to break up, but, if it does, then Michael Ancram will be yet another Conservative spokesman from the early days of the Blair government who turned out to be absolutely right:
The Government's proposals carry within them the virus that will begin to eat away, and eventually cause to unravel, the bonds that hold the United Kingdom together. It is not written into the White Paper, but the virus is there. The proposals are the first step on the way to an independent Scotland and the break-up of the United Kingdom.
If the Conservative and Unionist PM David Cameron doesn't oversee the breakup of his Union, he will have a hell of job trying to reconcile his Party with Gordon Brown's DevoMore that ultimately saved the Union.
DevoMax + enshrined Barnett + No devolution for England is worse than letting Scotland go.
Tomorrow night in the wee hours, is there any way of telling how well it is going for each side after the first three or four of results are announced, so that there is more information around at 2 or 3 am? Could they compare the actual, announced, results with (say) the last 10 aggregated results from opinion poll data in each region?
I hope to do this, with Uniform and probabilistic projections, amongst others...
Oh, great. Would make it more exciting to watch. Have you got the data from all the polls put together already, for this purpose? Are you doing it here in the comments, or on twitter or some other place (sorry if I should know about you - I am new here!) Wonder if the BBC will do this.
The Beeb are more likely to have Jeremy Vine prancing around in a kilt
"Mr Scott challenged the First Minister to “accept that fact”. When Shetland's local authority held a referendum 35 years ago asking if residents wanted to be part of an independent Scotland, the result was nine to one against."
"The oil belongs to us. We don't have to argue about that. It is ours," said Shetlander Hazel Mackenzie, 43, who works in the livestock auction house in Shetland's main town of Lerwick."
"I'd like to see ultimately something in Shetland on the Faroese model or possibly Guernsey or Jersey or the Isle of Man," said Ian Gidney, 57, who runs an online leather retailer."
""Scotland will need Shetland more than Shetland will need Scotland," said Caroline Miller, 56, an ex-Shetland councillor who now helps run a bed and breakfast hotel."
Oh the irony.
So no polling then.
No, just actual votes.
"When Shetland's local authority held a referendum 35 years ago asking if residents wanted to be part of an independent Scotland, the result was nine to one against."
I look forward* to your analysis of the run up to the 2015 GE based on the 1979 election.
*That's a lie, I couldn't give a toss.
Naw the Shetland issue is gonna swing it, can't believe you're dismissing it so lightly :-)
It is actually far worse than that. In 1980 it was////
"The Government of Quebec has made public its proposal to negotiate a new agreement with the rest of Canada, based on the equality of nations; this agreement would enable Quebec to acquire the exclusive power to make its laws, levy its taxes and establish relations abroad — in other words, sovereignty — and at the same time to maintain with Canada an economic association including a common currency; any change in political status resulting from these negotiations will only be implemented with popular approval through another referendum; on these terms, do you give the Government of Quebec the mandate to negotiate the proposed agreement between Quebec and Canada?"
"Do you agree that Quebec should become sovereign after having made a formal offer to Canada for a new economic and political partnership within the scope of the bill respecting the future of Quebec and of the agreement signed on June 12, 1995?"
I've read so much about that referendum (including thousands of posts here!) and that's the first time I've seen the actual wording! Wow, what would the Electoral Commission made of that?
In Quebec they broke for No in the polling booth leading to an overstatement of Yes's by final polls...but...in Quebec this was the question:
"Do you agree that Quebec should become sovereign after having made a formal offer to Canada for a new economic and political partnership within the scope of the bill respecting the future of Quebec and of the agreement signed on June 12, 1995?"
That question is enough to surely make you lose the will to live. I could barely read it to the end. Alot of voters will have just marked "yes" or "no" without engaging with the question.
Tomorrow the question is:
"Should Scotland be an independent country?"
That's a very different question in terms of likely emotional reaction by voters...
I don't think we can necessarily assume we will see a "Quebec effect" breaking to no in the ballot booth tomorrow.
The market seems to be pricing in the "Quebec effect" however.
I agree with your point that we should not compare Quebec. Not just for the reason you give. But also because this is 20 years later and people are more anti-establishment.
The other things in my mind are:
*in *every* previous referendum (i.e. both of them) in Scotland the Scots always went for the one that gave the maximal power. *in the 1998 Scottish referendum the polls *underestimated* the vote for change. Surely this is more relevant than Quebec? Every nation is different.
"Mr Scott challenged the First Minister to “accept that fact”. When Shetland's local authority held a referendum 35 years ago asking if residents wanted to be part of an independent Scotland, the result was nine to one against."
"The oil belongs to us. We don't have to argue about that. It is ours," said Shetlander Hazel Mackenzie, 43, who works in the livestock auction house in Shetland's main town of Lerwick."
"I'd like to see ultimately something in Shetland on the Faroese model or possibly Guernsey or Jersey or the Isle of Man," said Ian Gidney, 57, who runs an online leather retailer."
""Scotland will need Shetland more than Shetland will need Scotland," said Caroline Miller, 56, an ex-Shetland councillor who now helps run a bed and breakfast hotel."
Oh the irony.
So no polling then.
No, just actual votes.
"When Shetland's local authority held a referendum 35 years ago asking if residents wanted to be part of an independent Scotland, the result was nine to one against."
I look forward* to your analysis of the run up to the 2015 GE based on the 1979 election.
*That's a lie, I couldn't give a toss.
Believe me I look forward in case of scottish independence for Thescottishdivvie to appear on PB. Then you have to play the unionist role with him on the merits of staying part of scotland.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said he wants to abandon liberal democracy in favor of an “illiberal state,” citing Russia and Turkey as examples.
I see that the Quebec referendum used the "Do you agree..." construction. In Scottish trials, this construction made people more likely to vote yes. So it was just as well (for Cameron) that he did manage to get that taken out!
Remind me, if the Union breaks up, who would be the Conservative and Unionist PM in charge of the Union at the time?
It's probably not going to break up, but, if it does, then Michael Ancram will be yet another Conservative spokesman from the early days of the Blair government who turned out to be absolutely right:
The Government's proposals carry within them the virus that will begin to eat away, and eventually cause to unravel, the bonds that hold the United Kingdom together. It is not written into the White Paper, but the virus is there. The proposals are the first step on the way to an independent Scotland and the break-up of the United Kingdom.
If the Conservative and Unionist PM David Cameron doesn't oversee the breakup of his Union, he will have a hell of job trying to reconcile his Party with Gordon Brown's DevoMore that ultimately saved the Union.
DevoMax + enshrined Barnett + No devolution for England is worse than letting Scotland go.
I can see the patch of long grass already Soccy old chap - no need to worry..
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said he wants to abandon liberal democracy in favor of an “illiberal state,” citing Russia and Turkey as examples.
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££££££££££££££
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/market?marketId=1.110033387
Any Arsenal fans on here? Who was the better manager, Don Howe or Bruce Rioch?
You still haven't given me your % prediction for tomorrow.
About a year after the last election, I attended a dinner where a cabinet minister whose brief covered this was speaking, and I was able to chat with the said minister before the dinner. I asked what was being done about the West Lothian Question. The answer was very interesting. The first part of the response was to point out that it mattered only in certain circumstances. If either main party has a reasonable majority, it's of academic interest only. The second part was to point out that, yes, the coalition (if the Conservatives could get LibDem support - not obvious) could do something about it quite easily - but it would be equally easy for Labour to undo it next time they could muster a bare majority (including Scottish MPs) in the UK parliament.
The truth is, it's a God-awful mess, and there is no easy solution without the consent of all the parties. I hope that we might finally get some progress on this as part of the fall-out from IndyRef. We shall see.
Just like Ulster since Irish independence, they don't want to be part of the newly independent country.
Yes 5/6 (Ladbrokes)
No 11/8 (Paddy Power)
-Man wearing Fedora to young Indiana Jones.
I expect a clear NO. Then, we have to clean up this mess. A highly divided Scotland and a resentful England is not a happy prospect. As disunited a Kingdom as if YES were to win, but with the added problem that we now have to live together for at least a generation.
There are simply no winners and the only people to come out of this with any credit are Gordon Brown and Danny Alexander.
Representative Democracy should always be favoured over Direct Democracy for these reasons. We live in a disinformed society and the rule of those who are the least uninformed is better than the tyranny of populism.
Personally, I blame Mel Gibson.
Sorry but I didn't think Brown was that wonderful. He sounds like a demagogue. Perhaps that's the sort of thing that goes down well at the moment with the supposed intimidation coming from the Yes camp. It doesn't make me any more relaxed about what might happen come Friday morning.
It's a case of the enemy of my enemy is my friend.
Which one got the ManU of nations relegated (brown) and which one got them promoted again with a record points haul(Cameron)but he might after let the star player leave on the down side ;-)
Circumstances have now presented their selves which make EV4EL seem like it must happen.
Cameron hasn't given the commitment to Barnett that some seem to be imagining. He's told the Scots they can fund their health service how they choose using their powers to increase Scottish taxes.
https://mobile.twitter.com/MichaelLCrick
Welcome back, Antifrank!!
I hope your sabbatical was as splendid as you hoped it would be.
Knew it began with C ;-)
I just want to mention the Truman/Dewey presidential contest in 1948. That's all.
Any polling on how the Orkney & Shetland Indy parties are doing?
I take your point about a future Labour government being able to reverse EV4EL, which is why I've always preferred having a proper English parliament.
I think there's also an aspect that Cameron is embarrassed by his Englishness, especially his particular posh southern Tory branch of Englishness. I think this insecurity feeds through into numerous areas of his political thoughts.
Clever stuff ; ^)
Have a deep fried mars bar ; ^)
Crick's last words - "No disruption here"
The left claim he out thatchered thatcher. here....so amazing the same man is lauded here
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/9794316/Alex-Salmond-warning-over-Shetland-oil-after-independence.html
"Mr Scott challenged the First Minister to “accept that fact”. When Shetland's local authority held a referendum 35 years ago asking if residents wanted to be part of an independent Scotland, the result was nine to one against."
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/04/16/uk-scotland-independence-shetland-idUKBREA3F0SH20140416
"The oil belongs to us. We don't have to argue about that. It is ours," said Shetlander Hazel Mackenzie, 43, who works in the livestock auction house in Shetland's main town of Lerwick."
"I'd like to see ultimately something in Shetland on the Faroese model or possibly Guernsey or Jersey or the Isle of Man," said Ian Gidney, 57, who runs an online leather retailer."
""Scotland will need Shetland more than Shetland will need Scotland," said Caroline Miller, 56, an ex-Shetland councillor who now helps run a bed and breakfast hotel."
Oh the irony.
Back in 2011 I generously offered on this site to show EdM around his constituency for a mere £1,000 per day.
Looking at how EdM has instead turned out it would have been a bargain had he accepted the offer.
I still think the closest parallel is Quebec 1995. The last three polls had "Oui" well ahead, yet "Non" still nicked it.
"Oui" had a charismatic leader in Lucien Bouchard, just as "Yes" do in Alex Salmond. The opposition was divided & dispirited. The Canadian premier (Chretien, a rich Toronto lawyer) was disliked in Quebec, as much as Cameron is disliked in Scotland.
"Oui" was strongest in the heavily working class areas. and "oui" had exactly the same problems with the currency question
There are so many parallels, even down to suggestions that Quebec be partitioned in the event of a "Oui" with Western Montreal, the Townships and Nouveau Quebec returning to Canada.
So, I must admit I think Scotland will play out the same way.
http://www.nojam.com/demo/pbindycomp/addprediction.php
You're very exercised by the politics of a country you evidently know nothing about. Are you just interested in getting your money grubbing hands on our resources?
http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/72281/seven-things-north-sea-investors-must-know-before-scots-vote-72281.html
Plus, Shetland held a local referendum, I think 37 years ago, if they want to be part of an independent scotland with NO winning 9 to 1.
Surely the mass media takes some blame for misinforming the people no?
Are we forever to be treated like children with only 640MPS ruling 62million.
Doesnt seem that advanced to me
"When Shetland's local authority held a referendum 35 years ago asking if residents wanted to be part of an independent Scotland, the result was nine to one against."
Or a typo.
http://tavishscott.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/Scotlands-Constitutional-Future-Northern-Isles.pdf
It makes the SNP cry in fear that the oil and the fish will be gone.
.cd maybe?
Labour vote in SE England 2010: 16.2% (out of 4.2 million voters)
Labour vote in SW England 2010: 15.4% (out of 2.8 million voters)
"Do you agree that Quebec should become sovereign after having made a formal offer to Canada for a new economic and political partnership within the scope of the bill respecting the future of Quebec and of the agreement signed on June 12, 1995?"
That question is enough to surely make you lose the will to live. I could barely read it to the end. Alot of voters will have just marked "yes" or "no" without engaging with the question.
Tomorrow the question is:
"Should Scotland be an independent country?"
That's a very different question in terms of likely emotional reaction by voters...
I don't think we can necessarily assume we will see a "Quebec effect" breaking to no in the ballot booth tomorrow.
The market seems to be pricing in the "Quebec effect" however.
*That's a lie, I couldn't give a toss.
I am not so sure. This was a second referendum, and the constitutional position of Quebec had been under intense debate for over a decade prior to 1995, so it is difficult to see how voters would not have engaged with the question.
The options Oui and Non are readily understandable even if you didn't read the rather lawyerly question.
But, I guess you are right, the market must have priced the Quebec factor in.
It is actually far worse than that. In 1980 it was////
"The Government of Quebec has made public its proposal to negotiate a new agreement with the rest of Canada, based on the equality of nations; this agreement would enable Quebec to acquire the exclusive power to make its laws, levy its taxes and establish relations abroad — in other words, sovereignty — and at the same time to maintain with Canada an economic association including a common currency; any change in political status resulting from these negotiations will only be implemented with popular approval through another referendum; on these terms, do you give the Government of Quebec the mandate to negotiate the proposed agreement between Quebec and Canada?"
Should've just stopped after 8 words surely?
The other things in my mind are:
*in *every* previous referendum (i.e. both of them) in Scotland the Scots always went for the one that gave the maximal power.
*in the 1998 Scottish referendum the polls *underestimated* the vote for change. Surely this is more relevant than Quebec? Every nation is different.
Then you have to play the unionist role with him on the merits of staying part of scotland.
We'll have hours of laughter.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said he wants to abandon liberal democracy in favor of an “illiberal state,” citing Russia and Turkey as examples.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-28/orban-says-he-seeks-to-end-liberal-democracy-in-hungary.html