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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov and Survation phone polls are out – It is still too

SystemSystem Posts: 12,213
edited September 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov and Survation phone polls are out – It is still too close to call.

YouGov/Times: The 25 to 29 age bracket favour "yes" by 56-44, while the 16 to 24 & 40 to 59 ages are split 50-50. "No" only ahead among 60+

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    Its already over
  • eekeek Posts: 28,585
    edited September 2014
    GIN1138 said:

    Its already over

    Its too close to say that... I think there is an awful lot of people who haven't been caught in any polling...
  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    I lost my nerve and went for No in the comp.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    All the pollsters are off by atleast 2%. There are too many variables, they are like penguins huddling for warmth. But which way?
  • HughHugh Posts: 955
    "I think I'd be quite good at it"

    -David Cameron
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    I think tomorrow will be more interesting than that stupid AV vote.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Either way, I expect the Scots will ultimately be fine. As the Grail knight told Indiana Jones, choose wisely.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    Thanks for all the kolpak answers on the previous thread. Absolutely barking decision.
  • jimmyczzjimmyczz Posts: 25
    Yes is going to win because they have the organisation on the ground. After taking all info into account I am going for 57% yes.
  • jascowjascow Posts: 18
    Good to see you posting on here too Ave_it

    As you would say...

    Alex Salmond = Neil Kinnock !!!!

    ;)
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited September 2014
    I predict a YES win of 51.8% and mass suicides of pollsters. How exciting!!!!!!
    I've tossed the dice!
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Ave IT - see you back for Clacton and Rev Oswald spanking the naughty little toy thrower...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,608
    It's not too close to call, No has it by at least 10%.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    Still sticking with 60-40 +/-3 for yes. Probably closer to 57 than 60, though.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited September 2014
    I lose the same either way thanks to my nause up on Betfair earlier.. tried to put a stop loss in to lay Yes if it went 6.4 forgetting that it hoovers the best price on offer.. never went bigger than the price I laid... what a chump!

    I think its better if yes wins, because angry Noers will still have the choice to live in Britain or Scotland while angry Yesssers will be (in their mind) "trapped" in Britain with no hope of another referendum.. pent up anxiety is never a good thing, and there wont be a referendum for God knows how long

    Its why UKIP should wait until they get a referendum on their terms rather than Cameron's... as DC said this is a once in a lifetime vote.. you just cant afford to lose if you want real change

    Whatever you tribal politics etc, you would have to feel for people who are passionately in favour of an independent Scotland if they fail by a fag paper to achieve their desire, and I cant help thinking the outpourings of grief from Southern Englishmen wanting NO doesn't count for anywhere near as much as that of Scots who want YES
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    jimmyczz said:

    Yes is going to win because they have the organisation on the ground. After taking all info into account I am going for 57% yes.

    Are you for real? Everyone is going to know it's tomorrow, polling stations everywhere, I seriously doubt any differential turnout could be that significant
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 597
    If turnout is as high as suggested won't there still be large queues at 10pm? If they presumably allowed to vote won't the final result be delayed?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,608
    Jimmy and Saddened: I'm afraid Yes will be nowhere near your estimates. Just 28 hours until the first results :-)
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    saddened said:

    Still sticking with 60-40 +/-3 for yes. Probably closer to 57 than 60, though.

    Really? :)
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Sam Coates Times‏@SamCoatesTimes·7 mins
    So Ed Miliband didn't turn up to the final "no" #indyref rally tonight, pulling out at the last moment. That looks odd

    an unfortunate sentence construct?
  • HughHugh Posts: 955
    If NO wins, you can all thank the UK's best politician. Shame we have little pipsqueeks like Cameron and Clegg these days...

    www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/17/gordon-brown-found-his-voice-union-scottish-referendum-vote
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited September 2014
    Hugh said:

    "I think I'd be quite good at it"

    -David Cameron

    He may have underestimated the spectacular incompetence of Alastair Darling, Ed Miliband and Scottish Labour, who between them have somehow managed to let a large chunk of their traditional supporters fall for Salmond's snake-oil. Things have come to a pretty pass when they have to call in Gordon Brown for a bit of credibility.

    A mistake, certainly, but I'm not sure how Cameron could have avoided it. What was he supposed to do - disallow the referendum? Send Osborne and Francis Maude to Scotland to make the case instead of Scottish Labour?

    Incidentally - in addition to Gordon Brown, credit should be given to Jim Murphy, who I've long thought has been under-valued by his party.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    FPT:
    bigjohnowls said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Always something nice for we blues too...

    Tom Newton Dunn‏@tnewtondunn·36 secs
    …and a stinker for Labour; Cameron now marginally more trusted than Ed Miliband in Scotland, by 26% to 25% (5/5) http://bit.ly/1qZqNeb

    Although obviously minor compared with the question of whether the UK is about to break up, the collapse of Scottish Labour and the failure of Ed M to connect with his core vote there is a remarkable side-show.
    If no wins it will be massively down to Gordon Brown.

    The Scots really hate Tories though.
    Apart from the 400,000+ who voted for them at the last GE and are 90%+ NO?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Assuming the Western Isles come in first - do we know the timetable for the results?

    I've got Thurs/Fri blocked out for interweb watching.
    rcs1000 said:

    Jimmy and Saddened: I'm afraid Yes will be nowhere near your estimates. Just 28 hours until the first results :-)

  • Paul_Mid_BedsPaul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    My prediction 61% No, 39% Yes 87% turnout and Malcolms keyboard overheats and catches fire sometime around Lunchtime on Friday.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Hugh said:

    If NO wins, you can all thank the UK's best politician. Shame we have little pipsqueeks like Cameron and Clegg these days...

    www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/17/gordon-brown-found-his-voice-union-scottish-referendum-vote

    You was saying big boy -

    Sam Coates Times‏@SamCoatesTimes·7 mins
    So Ed Miliband didn't turn up to the final "no" #indyref rally tonight, pulling out at the last moment. That looks odd

    Pathetic - lol

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    edited September 2014
    I think it is worth revisiting the excellent article by Shadsy earlier today.http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/09/17/if-this-is-on-a-knife-edge-why-is-yes-72/
    He carried out an analysis of the percentage of undecided that had to go Yes's way before they could win on current polling.
    Pollster NO YES DK DKs for YES win
    ICM 45 41 14 64.3%
    Survation 48 44 8 75.0%
    Opinium 49 45 6 83.3%

    If these polls are showing don't knows down to 4% then Sam Coates can't count. The only way for Yes to win is for the poll to be wrong in the first place.

    That of course is entirely possible, indeed likely, although the inaccuracy will not necessarily favour yes.

    This is either the worst polling disaster in history or No is going to win. But it is still very close.
  • HughHugh Posts: 955
    Plato said:


    I've got Thurs/Fri blocked out for interweb watching.

    rcs1000 said:

    Jimmy and Saddened: I'm afraid Yes will be nowhere near your estimates. Just 28 hours until the first results :-)

    Unlike every other day?
  • Unionist1707Unionist1707 Posts: 43
    Do people think GOTV will matter as much as in a general election? I don't see how anyone in Scotland can forget that the referendum is tomorrow.
  • HughHugh Posts: 955
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Hugh said:

    "I think I'd be quite good at it"

    -David Cameron

    He may have underestimated the spectacular incompetence of Alastair Darling, Ed Miliband and Scottish Labour, who between them have somehow managed to let a large chunk of their traditional supporters fall for Salmond's snake-oil. Things have come to a pretty pass when they have to call in Gordon Brown for a bit of credibility.

    A mistake, certainly, but I'm not sure how Cameron could have avoided it. What was he supposed to do - disallow the referendum? Send Osborne and Francis Maude to Scotland to make the case instead of Scottish Labour?

    Incidentally - in addition to Gordon Brown, credit should be given to Jim Murphy, who I've long thought has been under-valued by his party.
    Lol.

    Yeah good luck blaming Labour for this one, you Conservative and Unionist Cameron fanboy you.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Hugh said:

    James Kelly was banned from PB, but hey, on the eve of this historic moment at least we have Plato and her YouTube cats!

    Indeed. The cats are a real asset to punters wishing to stake their hard earned cash on political betting markets.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    saddened said:

    Still sticking with 60-40 +/-3 for yes. Probably closer to 57 than 60, though.

    Bugger, meant to put 57 for no.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Hugh said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Hugh said:

    "I think I'd be quite good at it"

    -David Cameron

    He may have underestimated the spectacular incompetence of Alastair Darling, Ed Miliband and Scottish Labour, who between them have somehow managed to let a large chunk of their traditional supporters fall for Salmond's snake-oil. Things have come to a pretty pass when they have to call in Gordon Brown for a bit of credibility.

    A mistake, certainly, but I'm not sure how Cameron could have avoided it. What was he supposed to do - disallow the referendum? Send Osborne and Francis Maude to Scotland to make the case instead of Scottish Labour?

    Incidentally - in addition to Gordon Brown, credit should be given to Jim Murphy, who I've long thought has been under-valued by his party.
    Lol.

    Yeah good luck blaming Labour for this one, you Conservative and Unionist Cameron fanboy you.
    When did the polls narrow,wasn't it after the fcuk up of the second debate by darling ?
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Reposting this from Shadsy done on last thread after most of us had moved on..


    shadsy • Posts: 161

    10:16PM

    No should be a lot shorter imo. Probably about 1/8.
    The visibility and enthusiasm of YES is keeping the price up despite the now very conclusive polling evidence.

    It's tricky for us to make YES much bigger though, as I am anticipating a huge volume of Scottish money for it tomorrow as the inevitable tales of huge queues outside polling stations convinces people that 7/2 is a great price in a "toss-up" which is how the media will keep portraying it.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Hugh said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Hugh said:

    "I think I'd be quite good at it"

    -David Cameron

    He may have underestimated the spectacular incompetence of Alastair Darling, Ed Miliband and Scottish Labour, who between them have somehow managed to let a large chunk of their traditional supporters fall for Salmond's snake-oil. Things have come to a pretty pass when they have to call in Gordon Brown for a bit of credibility.

    A mistake, certainly, but I'm not sure how Cameron could have avoided it. What was he supposed to do - disallow the referendum? Send Osborne and Francis Maude to Scotland to make the case instead of Scottish Labour?

    Incidentally - in addition to Gordon Brown, credit should be given to Jim Murphy, who I've long thought has been under-valued by his party.
    Lol.

    Yeah good luck blaming Labour for this one, you Conservative and Unionist Cameron fanboy you.
    Remind me, who was in charge of 'Better Together'?
  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    A mistake, certainly, but I'm not sure how Cameron could have avoided it. What was he supposed to do - disallow the referendum?

    It was the repeated claim of the nationalists that a referendum on independence was within the legislative competence of the Scottish Parliament. Cameron need not have agreed to a s. 30 order. He could have let the Scottish Government's Bill be tied down in legal challenges. When, as is likely, it turned out that the holding of such a referendum was outside the legislative competence of the Scottish Parliament, he would have been under no obligation to agree to a s. 30 order or to introduce a Bill into Parliament providing for such a referendum.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Robert

    Why so confident?
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Hugh said:

    If NO wins, you can all thank the UK's best politician. Shame we have little pipsqueeks like Cameron and Clegg these days...

    www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/17/gordon-brown-found-his-voice-union-scottish-referendum-vote

    It really is the ultimate irony.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Its already over

    Its too close to say that... I think there is an awful lot of people who haven't been caught in any polling...
    That is what the yes camp would like us to believe but is it really likely? The polling companies do a great deal of non-political market research and they contact non-voters and C2DE groups as part of that - just because many people in these groups do not regularly vote does not mean that they are invisible to pollsters.

    During the whole of this campaign there have been only two polls that showed a yes lead, and one of those (ICM last week) was a clear outlier. All other polls by all polling organisations have shown no ahead. The gap has certainly narrowed but it has not closed completely. If yes wins now this referendum would surely be the biggest upset in the history of polling.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited September 2014
    Unionist1707 said:

    Do people think GOTV will matter as much as in a general election? I don't see how anyone in Scotland can forget that the referendum is tomorrow.

    Yes, by my calculations, on a 82% turnout, if one side wins by 1% then they have won by 35,000 votes.

    So, winning could come down to getting 35,000 people out to vote.

  • glwglw Posts: 9,954
    Hugh said:

    If NO wins, you can all thank the UK's best politician. Shame we have little pipsqueeks like Cameron and Clegg these days...

    www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/17/gordon-brown-found-his-voice-union-scottish-referendum-vote

    Good politician, but a rubbish PM and even worse Chancellor.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    edited September 2014
    compouter2 said:

    Hugh said:

    If NO wins, you can all thank the UK's best politician. Shame we have little pipsqueeks like Cameron and Clegg these days...

    www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/17/gordon-brown-found-his-voice-union-scottish-referendum-vote

    It really is the ultimate irony.
    Again - You little pipsqueek leader - lol

    Sam Coates Times‏@SamCoatesTimes·7 mins
    So Ed Miliband didn't turn up to the final "no" #indyref rally tonight, pulling out at the last moment. That looks odd


  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    Hugh said:

    If NO wins, you can all thank the UK's best politician. Shame we have little pipsqueeks like Cameron and Clegg these days...

    www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/17/gordon-brown-found-his-voice-union-scottish-referendum-vote

    Care to explain why you have the need to incessantly troll? It's not as if you are any good at it.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Tykejohnno said:

    compouter2 said:

    Hugh said:

    If NO wins, you can all thank the UK's best politician. Shame we have little pipsqueeks like Cameron and Clegg these days...

    www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/17/gordon-brown-found-his-voice-union-scottish-referendum-vote

    It really is the ultimate irony.
    Again - You pipsqueak leader - lol

    Sam Coates Times‏@SamCoatesTimes·7 mins
    So Ed Miliband didn't turn up to the final "no" #indyref rally tonight, pulling out at the last moment. That looks odd


    Im not a pipsqueak...or a leader ;-)
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    edited September 2014
    compouter2 said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    compouter2 said:

    Hugh said:

    If NO wins, you can all thank the UK's best politician. Shame we have little pipsqueeks like Cameron and Clegg these days...

    www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/17/gordon-brown-found-his-voice-union-scottish-referendum-vote

    It really is the ultimate irony.
    Again - You pipsqueak leader - lol

    Sam Coates Times‏@SamCoatesTimes·7 mins
    So Ed Miliband didn't turn up to the final "no" #indyref rally tonight, pulling out at the last moment. That looks odd


    Im not a pipsqueak...or a leader ;-)
    I corrected it ;-) abit of a rush.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Life_ina_market_town said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    A mistake, certainly, but I'm not sure how Cameron could have avoided it. What was he supposed to do - disallow the referendum?

    It was the repeated claim of the nationalists that a referendum on independence was within the legislative competence of the Scottish Parliament. Cameron need not have agreed to a s. 30 order. He could have let the Scottish Government's Bill be tied down in legal challenges. When, as is likely, it turned out that the holding of such a referendum was outside the legislative competence of the Scottish Parliament, he would have been under no obligation to agree to a s. 30 order or to introduce a Bill into Parliament providing for such a referendum.
    Yes, he could have been obstructive and devious. But the thing is, he believes in democracy, self-determination, and fair play. Odd, I know, for those whose experience of politics is mainly New Labour.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    Hugh said:

    James Kelly was banned from PB, but hey, on the eve of this historic moment at least we have Plato and her YouTube cats!

    Indeed. The cats are a real asset to punters wishing to stake their hard earned cash on political betting markets.
    I didn't realise Mr. Kelly had been banned from the internet. To the contrary I thought that these days he had his own site where one can find that unique insight that you seem to crave. Perhaps I was misinformed.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Yes 43 No 57

    You heard it here first!
  • EastwingerEastwinger Posts: 354
    Hugh said:

    "I think I'd be quite good at it"

    -David Cameron

    Whereas nobody thinks Ed would.
  • HughHugh Posts: 955
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    Hugh said:

    James Kelly was banned from PB, but hey, on the eve of this historic moment at least we have Plato and her YouTube cats!

    Indeed. The cats are a real asset to punters wishing to stake their hard earned cash on political betting markets.
    In fairness Plato has given us some of her insights into the biggest political and betting moment that some may ever see.

    Not bothered, zzz, totally like wtf at cybernats on twitter, etc
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,789
    Little anecdote.

    Three separate occasions today I've heard three different groups of people raging about Cameron giving 'even more' money to Scotland.

    You can be sure that Conservative MPs are hearing the same raging, though doubtless some are raging themselves.

    With Cameron having given yet another example of his crap negotiating and habit of surrendering when the pressure is on does anyone still believe he can achieve his promised renegotiation with the EU - that renegotiation which is 'a great undertaking nobody to know what it is'.

    Farage is laughing tonight.
  • Unionist1707Unionist1707 Posts: 43
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Unionist1707 said:

    Do people think GOTV will matter as much as in a general election? I don't see how anyone in Scotland can forget that the referendum is tomorrow.

    Yes, by my calculations, on a 82% turnout, if one side wins by 1% then they have won by 35,000 votes.

    So, winning could come down to getting 35,000 people out to vote.

    Yikes. Let's hope the disparity between Salmond's drones and Better Together isn't too great on the ground.

    I signed up for Blether Together today but have heard nothing. Not a good sign!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,874
    edited September 2014
    Edinburgh Castle tonight lit up with big 'No Thanks' http://instagram.com/p/tD6uUjn-Uz/
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    BF approaching £11 million matched...
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,789
    In the competition I've gone for:

    Yes 46.46%
    Turnout 81.81%

    The Scots will bottle their opportunity for freedom.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Plato said:

    Assuming the Western Isles come in first - do we know the timetable for the results?

    I've got Thurs/Fri blocked out for interweb watching.

    rcs1000 said:

    Jimmy and Saddened: I'm afraid Yes will be nowhere near your estimates. Just 28 hours until the first results :-)

    This is my attempt based on PA times. The PA times are still there if you want to ignore my adjustments:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WX0VkvxhGdACIr4FYUue_Cryk6JNRg743gsgoETYtw0/htmlview?usp=drive_web
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,919
    Life_ina_market_town said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    A mistake, certainly, but I'm not sure how Cameron could have avoided it. What was he supposed to do - disallow the referendum?

    It was the repeated claim of the nationalists that a referendum on independence was within the legislative competence of the Scottish Parliament. Cameron need not have agreed to a s. 30 order. He could have let the Scottish Government's Bill be tied down in legal challenges. When, as is likely, it turned out that the holding of such a referendum was outside the legislative competence of the Scottish Parliament, he would have been under no obligation to agree to a s. 30 order or to introduce a Bill into Parliament providing for such a referendum.
    I think Cameron, for all his detractors, is at heart a rather decent person (some may say too decent to be a great leader, but that's another debate). I think he saw that disallowing a referendum despite an SNP majority government at Holyrood was only going to store up more problems. I think he thought he was fundamentally doing the right thing (though some may say in hindsight he miscalculated on DevoMax).
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Tykejohnno said:

    compouter2 said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    compouter2 said:

    Hugh said:

    If NO wins, you can all thank the UK's best politician. Shame we have little pipsqueeks like Cameron and Clegg these days...

    www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/17/gordon-brown-found-his-voice-union-scottish-referendum-vote

    It really is the ultimate irony.
    Again - You pipsqueak leader - lol

    Sam Coates Times‏@SamCoatesTimes·7 mins
    So Ed Miliband didn't turn up to the final "no" #indyref rally tonight, pulling out at the last moment. That looks odd


    Im not a pipsqueak...or a leader ;-)
    I corrected it ;-)

    In reality not worth Ed showing up after Gords barnstormer,not worth anyone from the NO campaign saying anything after that. Just let all the media outlets from 12:05 onwards keep playing it to get maximum publicity......Grid Locked, as you could say.
  • HughHugh Posts: 955
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Hugh said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Hugh said:

    "I think I'd be quite good at it"

    -David Cameron

    He may have underestimated the spectacular incompetence of Alastair Darling, Ed Miliband and Scottish Labour, who between them have somehow managed to let a large chunk of their traditional supporters fall for Salmond's snake-oil. Things have come to a pretty pass when they have to call in Gordon Brown for a bit of credibility.

    A mistake, certainly, but I'm not sure how Cameron could have avoided it. What was he supposed to do - disallow the referendum? Send Osborne and Francis Maude to Scotland to make the case instead of Scottish Labour?

    Incidentally - in addition to Gordon Brown, credit should be given to Jim Murphy, who I've long thought has been under-valued by his party.
    Lol.

    Yeah good luck blaming Labour for this one, you Conservative and Unionist Cameron fanboy you.
    Remind me, who was in charge of 'Better Together'?
    Remind me, if the Union breaks up, who would be the Conservative and Unionist PM in charge of the Union at the time?
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Brown manages to reach the ScotLab block vote that Badger and most certainly Ed M weren't going to deliver.

    It's not all about Cameron this however much the usual suspects might hope.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,874
    edited September 2014
    Another strong Mirror front page

    twitter.com/suttonnick/status/512347496572391424/photo/1
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    So if Comhairle non Eilean Siar goes no then salmond is *ed?

    :)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    Hugh said:

    James Kelly was banned from PB, but hey, on the eve of this historic moment at least we have Plato and her YouTube cats!

    Indeed. The cats are a real asset to punters wishing to stake their hard earned cash on political betting markets.
    Why was James banned? Apologies to PBmoderator if we're not allowed to discuss it.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Paul_Mid_Beds said:

    My prediction 61% No, 39% Yes 87% turnout and Malcolms keyboard overheats and catches fire sometime around Lunchtime on Friday.

    MrG will be away on his hols by lunchtime Friday - his laptop will be cool as a cucumber. ; )
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,789
    rcs1000 said:


    Thanks for the advice this morning.

    I'll see if I can save my comment to allow easier repeating as each week goes by.

    I do not want the PB Tories to forget that their heroes tolerate thousands of child rapes.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Brown was a monster today. I agree. That should be the No campaigns final output.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    edited September 2014
    HYUFD said:

    Another strong Mirror front page

    twitter.com/suttonnick/status/512347496572391424/photo/1

    Wow,that flag looks good ;-)

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Alistair Carmichael seems to think Shetland will vote No and he's the local Westminster MP:

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/17/shetland-may-reconsider-place-scotland-yes-vote-alistair-carmichael
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,874
    Interesting woman voting Yes on newsnight, young son No, unusual
  • HughHugh Posts: 955
    AndyJS said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    Hugh said:

    James Kelly was banned from PB, but hey, on the eve of this historic moment at least we have Plato and her YouTube cats!

    Indeed. The cats are a real asset to punters wishing to stake their hard earned cash on political betting markets.
    Why was James banned? Apologies to PBmoderator if we're not allowed to discuss it.
    In fairness to Mike / PB, there was an exchange where James tried to push and call Mike's bluff, and Mike just seemed to get fed up and hit the button.

    Though you can find James's blog on the internet and more details to judge for yourself, google is your friend.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Brown manages to reach the ScotLab block vote that Badger and most certainly Ed M weren't going to deliver.

    It's not all about Cameron this however much the usual suspects might hope.

    Indeed. Cameron has delivered his share of the vote.

    Miliband rendered utterly useless in a heartland.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    compouter2 said:

    Hugh said:

    If NO wins, you can all thank the UK's best politician. Shame we have little pipsqueeks like Cameron and Clegg these days...

    www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/17/gordon-brown-found-his-voice-union-scottish-referendum-vote

    It really is the ultimate irony.
    It would have been interesting to see how, in the 2nd debate, Brown would have handled Salmon's constant interrupting and barracking. That was no debate. As the audience appeared to be mainly partisan, maybe it would have been too much even for him.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Hugh said:

    Remind me, if the Union breaks up, who would be the Conservative and Unionist PM in charge of the Union at the time?

    It's probably not going to break up, but, if it does, then Michael Ancram will be yet another Conservative spokesman from the early days of the Blair government who turned out to be absolutely right:

    The Government's proposals carry within them the virus that will begin to eat away, and eventually cause to unravel, the bonds that hold the United Kingdom together. It is not written into the White Paper, but the virus is there. The proposals are the first step on the way to an independent Scotland and the break-up of the United Kingdom.

    http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm199798/cmhansrd/vo970731/debtext/70731-11.htm
  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Yes, he could have been obstructive and devious. But the thing is, he believes in democracy, self-determination, and fair play. Odd, I know, for those whose experience of politics is mainly New Labour.

    It would not have required him to have been either obstructive or devious. It would have required him to do nothing after the 2011 election, save to wait until one person challenged the Act of the Scottish Parliament in the courts.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Hugh said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Hugh said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Hugh said:

    "I think I'd be quite good at it"

    -David Cameron

    He may have underestimated the spectacular incompetence of Alastair Darling, Ed Miliband and Scottish Labour, who between them have somehow managed to let a large chunk of their traditional supporters fall for Salmond's snake-oil. Things have come to a pretty pass when they have to call in Gordon Brown for a bit of credibility.

    A mistake, certainly, but I'm not sure how Cameron could have avoided it. What was he supposed to do - disallow the referendum? Send Osborne and Francis Maude to Scotland to make the case instead of Scottish Labour?

    Incidentally - in addition to Gordon Brown, credit should be given to Jim Murphy, who I've long thought has been under-valued by his party.
    Lol.

    Yeah good luck blaming Labour for this one, you Conservative and Unionist Cameron fanboy you.
    Remind me, who was in charge of 'Better Together'?
    Remind me, if the Union breaks up, who would be the Conservative and Unionist PM in charge of the Union at the time?
    The Scottish Tories are 95%+ for No - what more could he have done?

    Or ís it his fault that Miliband can't reach Scottish Labour voters?

  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    compouter2 said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    compouter2 said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    compouter2 said:

    Hugh said:

    If NO wins, you can all thank the UK's best politician. Shame we have little pipsqueeks like Cameron and Clegg these days...

    www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/17/gordon-brown-found-his-voice-union-scottish-referendum-vote

    It really is the ultimate irony.
    Again - You pipsqueak leader - lol

    Sam Coates Times‏@SamCoatesTimes·7 mins
    So Ed Miliband didn't turn up to the final "no" #indyref rally tonight, pulling out at the last moment. That looks odd


    Im not a pipsqueak...or a leader ;-)
    I corrected it ;-)

    In reality not worth Ed showing up after Gords barnstormer,not worth anyone from the NO campaign saying anything after that. Just let all the media outlets from 12:05 onwards keep playing it to get maximum publicity......Grid Locked, as you could say.
    Yes but you and Hughie using the word 'pipsqueek' and the little mouse ran away,can,t wait for the GE ;-)

  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    On this note, an early night ready for tomorrow's late late late one

    Iain Martin‏@iainmartin1·7 mins
    Only hours to go until Scotland's day of density.
  • HughHugh Posts: 955
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Hugh said:

    Remind me, if the Union breaks up, who would be the Conservative and Unionist PM in charge of the Union at the time?

    It's probably not going to break up, but, if it does, then Michael Ancram will be yet another Conservative spokesman from the early days of the Blair government who turned out to be absolutely right:

    The Government's proposals carry within them the virus that will begin to eat away, and eventually cause to unravel, the bonds that hold the United Kingdom together. It is not written into the White Paper, but the virus is there. The proposals are the first step on the way to an independent Scotland and the break-up of the United Kingdom.

    http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm199798/cmhansrd/vo970731/debtext/70731-11.htm
    If the Conservative and Unionist PM David Cameron doesn't oversee the breakup of his Union, he will have a hell of job trying to reconcile his Party with Gordon Brown's DevoMore that ultimately saved the Union.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    On this note, an early night ready for tomorrow's late late late one

    Iain Martin‏@iainmartin1·7 mins
    Only hours to go until Scotland's day of density.

    'density' ? - not a Freudian slip by Mr Martin I take it?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    edited September 2014
    I really don't know what would happen. All I'll say is that if we've got to put up with this every time RUK elects a Conservative government, it would be better for Scotland to go now and get it over and done with.
  • jascowjascow Posts: 18
    Entertaining UK Sun front page!

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bxw9k7MCYAAf9K6.jpg
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,874
    edited September 2014
    Sun editor uses Harry reunion with Cressida story to send a subtle message of No twitter.com/mrjohnofarrell/status/512356129792208896/photo/1
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Camo wins it for no!!!!
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    chestnut said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Brown manages to reach the ScotLab block vote that Badger and most certainly Ed M weren't going to deliver.

    It's not all about Cameron this however much the usual suspects might hope.

    Indeed. Cameron has delivered his share of the vote.

    Miliband rendered utterly useless in a heartland.
    EdM was truly found out in this referendum. He's not up to the job.

  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    AndyJS said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    Hugh said:

    James Kelly was banned from PB, but hey, on the eve of this historic moment at least we have Plato and her YouTube cats!

    Indeed. The cats are a real asset to punters wishing to stake their hard earned cash on political betting markets.
    Why was James banned? Apologies to PBmoderator if we're not allowed to discuss it.
    For being a loon, and goading ogh once too often.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    SimonStClare said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    On this note, an early night ready for tomorrow's late late late one

    Iain Martin‏@iainmartin1·7 mins
    Only hours to go until Scotland's day of density.

    'density' ? - not a Freudian slip by Mr Martin I take it?
    I'm sure it is entirely deliberate ...
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    edited September 2014
    numbertwelve said:

    Life_ina_market_town said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    A mistake, certainly, but I'm not sure how Cameron could have avoided it. What was he supposed to do - disallow the referendum?

    It was the repeated claim of the nationalists that a referendum on independence was within the legislative competence of the Scottish Parliament. Cameron need not have agreed to a s. 30 order. He could have let the Scottish Government's Bill be tied down in legal challenges. When, as is likely, it turned out that the holding of such a referendum was outside the legislative competence of the Scottish Parliament, he would have been under no obligation to agree to a s. 30 order or to introduce a Bill into Parliament providing for such a referendum.
    I think Cameron, for all his detractors, is at heart a rather decent person (some may say too decent to be a great leader, but that's another debate). I think he saw that disallowing a referendum despite an SNP majority government at Holyrood was only going to store up more problems. I think he thought he was fundamentally doing the right thing (though some may say in hindsight he miscalculated on DevoMax).
    Mr. Twelve, I wouldn't disagree with any of that, or indeed Mr. Nabavi's defence of him over the referendum up thread. On this issue I think he has played it about right from the start.

    Cameron is still of course an utterly useless politician and no more deserving of the post of Prime Minister than Mr. Hopkins' cat. What comes next will require real political and leadership skills - Cameron is deficient in both.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411


    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jCLs0jv_Efk
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Hugh said:

    Remind me, if the Union breaks up, who would be the Conservative and Unionist PM in charge of the Union at the time?

    It's probably not going to break up, but, if it does, then Michael Ancram will be yet another Conservative spokesman from the early days of the Blair government who turned out to be absolutely right:

    The Government's proposals carry within them the virus that will begin to eat away, and eventually cause to unravel, the bonds that hold the United Kingdom together. It is not written into the White Paper, but the virus is there. The proposals are the first step on the way to an independent Scotland and the break-up of the United Kingdom.

    http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm199798/cmhansrd/vo970731/debtext/70731-11.htm
    So that's another disaster the blair/brown government brought us,that government MUST rank the worst in modern British political history.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    NO victory in GLASGOW lengthening: now 11/8 (PP) from 4/5 earlier today.

    Best YES price still 8/11 (Shadsy).
  • jimmyczzjimmyczz Posts: 25
    rcs1000 said:

    Jimmy and Saddened: I'm afraid Yes will be nowhere near your estimates. Just 28 hours until the first results :-)

    Dont be sorry :) I know my information is solid

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    Ave_it said:

    Camo wins it for no!!!!

    Ave it!!!!!!!!!!!

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,789
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Hugh said:

    Remind me, if the Union breaks up, who would be the Conservative and Unionist PM in charge of the Union at the time?

    It's probably not going to break up, but, if it does, then Michael Ancram will be yet another Conservative spokesman from the early days of the Blair government who turned out to be absolutely right:

    The Government's proposals carry within them the virus that will begin to eat away, and eventually cause to unravel, the bonds that hold the United Kingdom together. It is not written into the White Paper, but the virus is there. The proposals are the first step on the way to an independent Scotland and the break-up of the United Kingdom.

    http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm199798/cmhansrd/vo970731/debtext/70731-11.htm
    RN

    A sensible question and not intending to score political points.

    Why do you think that Cameron has shown no interest in sorting out the English democratic deficit during his nine years as Conservative leader and four years as prime minister ?

    By doing so he would have ensured

    A stronger Union (which clearly does mean much to him)
    A happier England
    A happier Scotland
    Electoral benefits for the Conservative party

    Instead he has allowed the virus described by Ancram to remain untreated.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    No 55-45 in Glasgow stuart...

    They no where their benefits are paid from :)
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    I remember that on the day of the general election in 2010 there was flash crash on wall street, that coupled with the first greek bailout on the same day, frightened some voters back to the main parties.

    Perhaps it's time to spook voters with another flash crash or mini financial crisis.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,789
    Tykejohnno said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Hugh said:

    Remind me, if the Union breaks up, who would be the Conservative and Unionist PM in charge of the Union at the time?

    It's probably not going to break up, but, if it does, then Michael Ancram will be yet another Conservative spokesman from the early days of the Blair government who turned out to be absolutely right:

    The Government's proposals carry within them the virus that will begin to eat away, and eventually cause to unravel, the bonds that hold the United Kingdom together. It is not written into the White Paper, but the virus is there. The proposals are the first step on the way to an independent Scotland and the break-up of the United Kingdom.

    http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm199798/cmhansrd/vo970731/debtext/70731-11.htm
    So that's another disaster the blair/brown government brought us,that government MUST rank the worst in modern British political history.
    But Cameron doesn't think so, he sees nothing wrong with being Continuity Blair.

  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    numbertwelve said:

    some may say in hindsight he miscalculated on DevoMax).

    Indeed they may. And I don't think that's the only thing they'll be saying as soon as the polls close. The sound of backbench knives being sharpened is alreday deafening.

    Cameron is now in a lose-lose position - if it's yes he's toast. If it's a big majority for no then he will be accused of making unnecessary concessions on the Barnett formula and devomax. If it's a narrow no, as the polls suggest, then he will be held responsible for the bitterness and resentment that will follow and Gordon Brown will be hailed as the man who delivered the union from peril in which Cameron so carelessly put it. The Tories will hate that.

    And then there is Clacton.......
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Ave_it said:

    No 55-45 in Glasgow stuart...

    They no where their benefits are paid from :)

    So, are you betting your mortgage at 11/8 with Paddy Power on a NO victory in Glasgow?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Isn't she from somewhere up North? She also started wetting her pants about Boris being mayor of London despite not being from London.

    Now she's inflicting her ugly face on those poor souls North of the border

    Is it really that shit where she is from that she has to pretend to be from anywhere else she sees on a map?

    'I hate England': Tartan-loving fashion designer Vivienne Westwood pins 'Yes' badges on her models (despite the fact she's grown rich in London and hasn't got a Scottish bone in her body)

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2755652/Tartan-loving-designer-Vivienne-Westwood-pledges-support-Yes-campaign-Scottish-independence-slamming-unionists-frightened-stupid.html#ixzz3Dc0PePei
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    antifrank said:

    Either way, I expect the Scots will ultimately be fine. As the Grail knight told Indiana Jones, choose wisely.

    Since the average scot is no expert, they would choose the flashy cup with the jewels.
This discussion has been closed.