politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Make no mistake the polls point to the IndyRef being on a k

System

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Make no mistake the polls point to the IndyRef being on a knife-edge and so much depends on turnout

The big unknown from this election is turnout – something that all the pollsters seek to measure and apply when working out their final vote shares.

Read the full story here

edmundintokyo

97% on the electoral register is a huge number. I have a hard time believing it's right - maybe somebody's dividing by the wrong figure, or maybe there are a bunch more people living in Scotland than we expected?

edmundintokyo

Looking up the 97% number:

A total of 4,285,323 people had registered to vote by the deadline of Tuesday 2 September.

There are an estimated 4,410,288 people over 16 resident in Scotland, according to 2012 figures from the Scottish government.

This suggests that 97% of the total number of people eligible to vote have registered.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-29160535

At the margins there will be some places where the two things don't overlap, eg IIUC Scots in the army stationed overseas will be able to vote, and non-Commonwealth, non-EU residents in Scotland won't. But those things feel too small and probably about cancel out. Maybe they're double-counting people in the registration numbers (eg you're registered in two constituencies, even though you can only vote in one) or maybe a couple of hundred thousand people hid in the toilets during the 2012 census.

asjohnstone

The vast increase in registration has been at the lower end of the socio-economic spectrum.

I'm hearing of enormous numbers of sign ups in the council schemes, in Glasgow and the sounding counties (larnarkshire / refrewshire / dumbartonshire / ayrshire). These people are going to vote in absolutely unprecedented numbers of this I'm certain. No reason to think the same isn't happening in Edinburgh and Dundee too. The higher the turnout, the better for yes.

The shy "No" thing is really though, i had an old friend refuse to comment publicly online on which way he's going vote. Chatting privately later he admitted that he was going to vote No, he's employed by UK government agency that would lose huge numbers of staff in Scotland.

Admitting no voting "No" is becoming socially difficult in places.

I think we'll be able to extrapolate the result from the turnout figures, 85%+ and "yes" wins, much below this is a "No"

Financier

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2754973/Scotland-meltdown-fiasco-100-days-independence.html

very amusing piece by the historian Andrew Roberts

OldKingCole

Let’s for a moment, assume the vote is NO. Narrow but there it is.

Scotland now has a big increase in the numbers on th Register; what is that going to do to the vote in the May GE? Increase the SNP Vote significantly? Or the Labour one? Or both about equally?

Can’t see the increase in registered electors helping either the Tories or the LibDems!

asjohnstone

OldKingCole said:

Let’s for a moment, assume the vote is NO. Narrow but there it is.

Scotland now has a big increase in the numbers on th Register; what is that going to do to the vote in the May GE? Increase the SNP Vote significantly? Or the Labour one? Or both about equally?

Can’t see the increase in registered electors helping either the Tories or the LibDems!

Probably stay at home, in the event of a "no", many of these people will never vote again

audreyanne

I think this thread header is pretty much spot on, which to my mind makes betting on it too great a risk. The fact that so much 'has' been staked on a Yes/No result is extraordinary to me. I only hope the result doesn't come down to a few thousand because that's not going to look great for either side (especially No if they tip it).

I think the only point I can fix to is that YES seem to have the momentum. If they can keep that Big Mo going for the next four days then I think it might, just, propel them first over the line.

OldKingCole

What is the normal spread of rate of return for postal vote. 50-60% or better/worse?

SouthamObserver

Given that the UK is about to break-up as someone born and living in England I am struggling to see any benefit to us of not going alone ourselves. Although it's harsh, Wales and Northern Ireland are indisputably drains on England's finances. Following the progressive, social democratic lead of Scotland surely it's time to put England first.

felix

Today finding it very difficult to care about any of this Scottish or betting stuff after the murder of another, this time British, hostage.

SouthamObserver

asjohnstone said:

OldKingCole said:

Let’s for a moment, assume the vote is NO. Narrow but there it is.

Scotland now has a big increase in the numbers on th Register; what is that going to do to the vote in the May GE? Increase the SNP Vote significantly? Or the Labour one? Or both about equally?

Can’t see the increase in registered electors helping either the Tories or the LibDems!

Probably stay at home, in the event of a "no", many of these people will never vote again

The crushing reality of independence will ensure they stay at home after Yes wins. Scottish Labour will win the first GE in an independent Scotland on a low turnout because the SNP's countless untruths and false claims will have been thoroughly exposed by then.

MarqueeMark

edmundintokyo said:

97% on the electoral register is a huge number. I have a hard time believing it's right - maybe somebody's dividing by the wrong figure, or maybe there are a bunch more people living in Scotland than we expected?

One thing you can be sure of - if it is a NO on Thursday, the SNP will no longer be crowing about the number of never-before voters they have signed up. Rather, within minutes, their conspiracy theorists will be in full flow about how MI5 created a quarter of a million Ghost Voters.

"I mean, ninety seven per cent? Nowhere else in the world gets close to that - outside of totalitarian regimes....I'm smellin' a London rat here...."

Paul_Mid_Beds

I think that all it shows is that people who will vote no have been cowed into silence

Financier

SouthamObserver said:

asjohnstone said:

OldKingCole said:

Let’s for a moment, assume the vote is NO. Narrow but there it is.

Scotland now has a big increase in the numbers on th Register; what is that going to do to the vote in the May GE? Increase the SNP Vote significantly? Or the Labour one? Or both about equally?

Can’t see the increase in registered electors helping either the Tories or the LibDems!

Probably stay at home, in the event of a "no", many of these people will never vote again

The crushing reality of independence will ensure they stay at home after Yes wins. Scottish Labour will win the first GE in an independent Scotland on a low turnout because the SNP's countless untruths and false claims will have been thoroughly exposed by then.

So would then Scottish Labour attempt to row back, as Independence based on the SNP's projection having been shown to be false, towards a new union?

Ninoinoz

asjohnstone said:

The shy "No" thing is really though, i had an old friend refuse to comment publicly online on which way he's going vote. Chatting privately later he admitted that he was going to vote No, he's employed by UK government agency that would lose huge numbers of staff in Scotland.

Admitting no voting "No" is becoming socially difficult in places.

Yes, just remember the SNP reaction to the election of a UKIP MEP in May for a foretaste of the treatment to be meted out.

malcolmg

FPT: I said on here a few weeks ago that the fields were for NO and the towns were for YES. This further confirms it.

Unionist1707 said:

Been canvassing in the Borders for Better Together all day. Plenty of no voters, including those reluctant to go public because they've heard people with no posters have had bricks through their windows. At point, a farmer came in asking for a new field poster as his existing one had been stolen; he said he'd be going to the Yes campaign office to give them a piece of his mind.

Did anyone else go canvassing today? How was it?

Did ye aye?

alex

edmundintokyo said:

97% on the electoral register is a huge number. I have a hard time believing it's right - maybe somebody's dividing by the wrong figure, or maybe there are a bunch more people living in Scotland than we expected?

A combination of 1) large numbers of people not completing the census 2) significant numbers of "ex-pat" Scots finding an excuse to temporarily return home and secure voter registration (eg. at parents address etc). Hopefully the latter will be mainly No voters (who may also not be picked up in polls).

I would seriously worry about the potential for electoral fraud in this election.

rcs1000

SouthamObserver said:

Given that the UK is about to break-up as someone born and living in England I am struggling to see any benefit to us of not going alone ourselves. Although it's harsh, Wales and Northern Ireland are indisputably drains on England's finances. Following the progressive, social democratic lead of Scotland surely it's time to put England first.

Given that the UK is about to break-up as someone born and living in London I am struggling to see any benefit to us of not going alone ourselves. Although it's harsh, The Midlands, the North East and definitely Cornwall are indisputably drains on London's finances. Following the progressive, social democratic lead of Scotland surely it's time to put London first.

You can then rinse and repeat, with "North of the River", "North of the River, and only zones one and two", until you end up with "Chelsea" or "Hampstead"

Paul_Mid_Beds

I think that all it shows is that people who will vote no have been cowed into silence and that online polls may be vulnerable to activist entryism when feelings are running high.

In the current atmosphere many people will be reluctant to admit "no" even in a phone poll as a family member or other person may hear them, eg a child who then goes off to school and tells other people, resulting in unwanted "attention". I suspect in some places people found to be voting "no" will be treated like strikebreakers in the miners strike and ostracised afterwards, so best keep shtum.

I wonder how opinion pollsters would have got on in the 1933 election in Germany, my guess is that the NSDAP vote would have been seriously over estimated for much the same reasons

malcolmg

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

I think that all it shows is that people who will vote no have been cowed into silence

You still posting bullshit you stupid moron, not happy with the media , the newspapers and unlimited cash. You absolute moronic pillock.

audreyanne

RCS1000 haha! Good one.

Erm, great theory Paul but who's to say this 'shy no' theory isn't just a pile of poo? Smacks of utter desperation from the No camp to me.

malcolmg

Ninoinoz said:

asjohnstone said:

The shy "No" thing is really though, i had an old friend refuse to comment publicly online on which way he's going vote. Chatting privately later he admitted that he was going to vote No, he's employed by UK government agency that would lose huge numbers of staff in Scotland.

Admitting no voting "No" is becoming socially difficult in places.

Yes, just remember the SNP reaction to the election of a UKIP MEP in May for a foretaste of the treatment to be meted out.

Another stupid turnip appears

Alistair

I've been thinking about the Betfair price a bit more, it's not so crazy (it's still off but not crazy off). Assuming the polling is accurate then with a normal distribution of results a 1% lead for No only means a 26% chance of a win for Yes.

BetFair is currently sitting at 21% so not really that far off.

ThomasNashe

rcs1000 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Given that the UK is about to break-up as someone born and living in England I am struggling to see any benefit to us of not going alone ourselves. Although it's harsh, Wales and Northern Ireland are indisputably drains on England's finances. Following the progressive, social democratic lead of Scotland surely it's time to put England first.

Given that the UK is about to break-up as someone born and living in London I am struggling to see any benefit to us of not going alone ourselves. Although it's harsh, The Midlands, the North East and definitely Cornwall are indisputably drains on London's finances. Following the progressive, social democratic lead of Scotland surely it's time to put London first.

You can then rinse and repeat, with "North of the River", "North of the River, and only zones one and two", until you end up with "Chelsea" or "Hampstead"

Reminds me of Wolfie (Citizen) Smith: 'Freedom for Tooting!'

JohnO

Update: Lab lead at 3 - Latest YouGov / Sunday Times results 12th Sept - Con 32%, Lab 35%, LD 7%, UKIP 15%; APP -2

malcolmg

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

I think that all it shows is that people who will vote no have been cowed into silence and that online polls may be vulnerable to activist entryism when feelings are running high.

In the current atmosphere many people will be reluctant to admit "no" even in a phone poll as a family member or other person may hear them, eg a child who then goes off to school and tells other people, resulting in unwanted "attention". I suspect in some places people found to be voting "no" will be treated like strikebreakers in the miners strike and ostracised afterwards, so best keep shtum.

I wonder how opinion pollsters would have got on in the 1933 election in Germany, my guess is that the NSDAP vote would have been seriously over estimated for much the same reasons

You really are a sick nasty sad sack of an excuse for a human being. Insinuating that people are like Nazi's.

SouthamObserver

rcs1000 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Given that the UK is about to break-up as someone born and living in England I am struggling to see any benefit to us of not going alone ourselves. Although it's harsh, Wales and Northern Ireland are indisputably drains on England's finances. Following the progressive, social democratic lead of Scotland surely it's time to put England first.

Given that the UK is about to break-up as someone born and living in London I am struggling to see any benefit to us of not going alone ourselves. Although it's harsh, The Midlands, the North East and definitely Cornwall are indisputably drains on London's finances. Following the progressive, social democratic lead of Scotland surely it's time to put London first.

You can then rinse and repeat, with "North of the River", "North of the River, and only zones one and two", until you end up with "Chelsea" or "Hampstead"

Well, yes. But unlike Hampstead England is a country and is recognised as such by the vast majority of people who live here. For England to break-up, the English as a whole would need to agree to it. For the same reason, we'll not see any No voting parts of Scotland leaving either.

NickPalmer

OldKingCole said:

What is the normal spread of rate of return for postal vote. 50-60% or better/worse?

Nudging 70% IIRC (in General Elections).

YouGov: Lab 35 Con 32 UKIP 15, LD 7 Green 6. A generally grumpy sample marks Cameron down 7, Miliband down 3 and the Coalition down 7. On how politicians have handled the referendum, Cameron is -20, Salmond +10, Brown + 7, Darling +3. (Not asked re Miliband or Clegg.) But most people don't think Cameron or Miliband should resign if there's a Yes.

Large majorities oppose Scottish MPs having much involvement after a Yes, e.g. 70-14 against their helping form a government in rUK. But English voters don't favour any particular change in how rUK would be governed, e.g. an English Parliament only has 18% support among English voters in the event of Yes, 15% in the event of No. 48-32 approve giving Scotland much greater powers if they vote No.

(59% aren't interested in football. And I thought it was just me.)

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/dx68iw22ce/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-1400912-main.pdf

Paul_Mid_Beds

malcolmg said:

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

I think that all it shows is that people who will vote no have been cowed into silence

You still posting bullshit you stupid moron, not happy with the media , the newspapers and unlimited cash. You absolute moronic pillock.

says Malcolm G as he immediately proves my point. Does it not occur to you that "no" voters are keeping quite precisely because they dont want to be subject to this sort of thing in person from Zanunats?

You encapsulate the YES strategy, deny reality and then shout down and insult anyone who dares to question it so they are cowed and stay quiet.

Well following on from Carnyx question yesterday heres a reuters report referring to NO voters fearing bricks through their window

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/09/11/uk-scotland-independence-groundgame-spec-idUKKBN0H60DV20140911

I fear for decent people in Scotbabwe

rcs1000

malcolmg said:

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

I think that all it shows is that people who will vote no have been cowed into silence and that online polls may be vulnerable to activist entryism when feelings are running high.

In the current atmosphere many people will be reluctant to admit "no" even in a phone poll as a family member or other person may hear them, eg a child who then goes off to school and tells other people, resulting in unwanted "attention". I suspect in some places people found to be voting "no" will be treated like strikebreakers in the miners strike and ostracised afterwards, so best keep shtum.

I wonder how opinion pollsters would have got on in the 1933 election in Germany, my guess is that the NSDAP vote would have been seriously over estimated for much the same reasons

You really are a sick nasty sad sack of an excuse for a human being. Insinuating that people are like Nazi's.

Godwin's Law

Wulfrun_Phil

The thread header's wrong or at least confusing.

ICM in their last poll reduced the weighting of people who did not vote in the 2011 Holyrood election by 50%. That included people who say they voted in the 2010 UK General Election and who say they are certain to vote now

I think that approach is very questionable.

SouthamObserver

Financier said:

SouthamObserver said:

asjohnstone said:

OldKingCole said:

Let’s for a moment, assume the vote is NO. Narrow but there it is.

Scotland now has a big increase in the numbers on th Register; what is that going to do to the vote in the May GE? Increase the SNP Vote significantly? Or the Labour one? Or both about equally?

Can’t see the increase in registered electors helping either the Tories or the LibDems!

Probably stay at home, in the event of a "no", many of these people will never vote again

The crushing reality of independence will ensure they stay at home after Yes wins. Scottish Labour will win the first GE in an independent Scotland on a low turnout because the SNP's countless untruths and false claims will have been thoroughly exposed by then.

So would then Scottish Labour attempt to row back, as Independence based on the SNP's projection having been shown to be false, towards a new union?

Nope. It will be too late. We may get better cross-border relations though.

Paul_Mid_Beds

audreyanne said:

RCS1000 haha! Good one.

Erm, great theory Paul but who's to say this 'shy no' theory isn't just a pile of poo? Smacks of utter desperation from the No camp to me.

Just look at Malcolm G's post for validation, imagine if someone like that lived next door, in the same block of flats, was a cousin, a colleague or manager at work or associated with your teenage children. Many would keep quiet wouldn't they.

JosiasJessop

SouthamObserver said:

asjohnstone said:

OldKingCole said:

Let’s for a moment, assume the vote is NO. Narrow but there it is.

Scotland now has a big increase in the numbers on th Register; what is that going to do to the vote in the May GE? Increase the SNP Vote significantly? Or the Labour one? Or both about equally?

Can’t see the increase in registered electors helping either the Tories or the LibDems!

Probably stay at home, in the event of a "no", many of these people will never vote again

The crushing reality of independence will ensure they stay at home after Yes wins. Scottish Labour will win the first GE in an independent Scotland on a low turnout because the SNP's countless untruths and false claims will have been thoroughly exposed by then.

Some on here think that Cameron will have to resign if there is a yes (wrongly IMO, for the reasons I have given passim).

As a Labour-leaning voter, do you think Miliband would have to resign if there is a yes?

asjohnstone

Financier said:

SouthamObserver said:

asjohnstone said:

OldKingCole said:

Let’s for a moment, assume the vote is NO. Narrow but there it is.

Scotland now has a big increase in the numbers on th Register; what is that going to do to the vote in the May GE? Increase the SNP Vote significantly? Or the Labour one? Or both about equally?

Can’t see the increase in registered electors helping either the Tories or the LibDems!

Probably stay at home, in the event of a "no", many of these people will never vote again

The crushing reality of independence will ensure they stay at home after Yes wins. Scottish Labour will win the first GE in an independent Scotland on a low turnout because the SNP's countless untruths and false claims will have been thoroughly exposed by then.

So would then Scottish Labour attempt to row back, as Independence based on the SNP's projection having been shown to be false, towards a new union?

No, because there would be zero desire in England to sign up for it.

Any one party can force a divorce, take two for a marriage

foxinsoxuk

Alistair said:

I've been thinking about the Betfair price a bit more, it's not so crazy (it's still off but not crazy off). Assuming the polling is accurate then with a normal distribution of results a 1% lead for No only means a 26% chance of a win for Yes.

BetFair is currently sitting at 21% so not really that far off.

Wouldn't it depend on the size of Standard Error of the Mean?

But really the key is whether it is a random sample of the population or whether it is a non-random sample that is not representative.

SouthamObserver

JosiasJessop said:

SouthamObserver said:

asjohnstone said:

OldKingCole said:

Let’s for a moment, assume the vote is NO. Narrow but there it is.

Scotland now has a big increase in the numbers on th Register; what is that going to do to the vote in the May GE? Increase the SNP Vote significantly? Or the Labour one? Or both about equally?

Can’t see the increase in registered electors helping either the Tories or the LibDems!

Probably stay at home, in the event of a "no", many of these people will never vote again

The crushing reality of independence will ensure they stay at home after Yes wins. Scottish Labour will win the first GE in an independent Scotland on a low turnout because the SNP's countless untruths and false claims will have been thoroughly exposed by then.

Some on here think that Cameron will have to resign if there is a yes (wrongly IMO, for the reasons I have given passim).

As a Labour-leaning voter, do you think Miliband would have to resign if there is a yes?

Yes, but he won't. That said, I am totally non-Labour leaning. The referendum campaign has been the final straw for me. The one good thing about our imminent break-up is that a few years down the line a Labour party, or some other centre-left entity, may emerge that is worth voting for. Until that happens, I will not vote.

As for Cameron, whether he resigns or not is immaterial. His political career is now coming to an end. Losing the Union will diminish him to such an extent that over the medium term it will be impossible for him to carry on.

Paul_Mid_Beds

Forgetting Scotland for a moment, this looks very interesting. Note my Vote:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/note-my-vote-now-you-stand-a-chance-of-influencing-your-mp-9731526.html

ThomasNashe

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

audreyanne said:

RCS1000 haha! Good one.

Erm, great theory Paul but who's to say this 'shy no' theory isn't just a pile of poo? Smacks of utter desperation from the No camp to me.

Just look at Malcolm G's post for validation, imagine if someone like that lived next door, in the same block of flats, was a cousin, a colleague or manager at work or associated with your teenage children. Many would keep quiet wouldn't they.

PBers don't appear to have been cowed into silence by his posts?

SouthamObserver

I don't see how internet polls fit into a Shy No theory. Can someone help?

malcolmg

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

malcolmg said:

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

I think that all it shows is that people who will vote no have been cowed into silence

You still posting bullshit you stupid moron, not happy with the media , the newspapers and unlimited cash. You absolute moronic pillock.

says Malcolm G as he immediately proves my point. Does it not occur to you that "no" voters are keeping quite precisely because they dont want to be subject to this sort of thing in person from Zanunats?

You encapsulate the YES strategy, deny reality and then shout down and insult anyone who dares to question it so they are cowed and stay quiet.

Well following on from Carnyx question yesterday heres a reuters report referring to NO voters fearing bricks through their window

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/09/11/uk-scotland-independence-groundgame-spec-idUKKBN0H60DV20140911

I fear for decent people in Scotbabwe

You sick little cowardly erchie

malcolmg

ThomasNashe said:

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

audreyanne said:

RCS1000 haha! Good one.

Erm, great theory Paul but who's to say this 'shy no' theory isn't just a pile of poo? Smacks of utter desperation from the No camp to me.

Just look at Malcolm G's post for validation, imagine if someone like that lived next door, in the same block of flats, was a cousin, a colleague or manager at work or associated with your teenage children. Many would keep quiet wouldn't they.

PBers don't appear to have been cowed into silence by his posts?

The cowardly little pipsqueak would not be calling me a nazi in person for sure.

TheWatcher

Anyone doubting the existence of the shy 'No' voter, need only to read the deeply hostile postings of the Neanderthal Malcolmg, a classic example of a Nat, to understand why they remain silent.

Imagine a whole parade of them on voting day, screaming at you to join them.

TheWatcher

ThomasNashe said:

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

audreyanne said:

RCS1000 haha! Good one.

Erm, great theory Paul but who's to say this 'shy no' theory isn't just a pile of poo? Smacks of utter desperation from the No camp to me.

Just look at Malcolm G's post for validation, imagine if someone like that lived next door, in the same block of flats, was a cousin, a colleague or manager at work or associated with your teenage children. Many would keep quiet wouldn't they.

PBers don't appear to have been cowed into silence by his posts?

He can't throw bricks through our windows.

Paul_Mid_Beds

malcolmg said:

You sick little cowardly erchie

I don't want to talk to you no more, you empty-headed animal food trough wiper! I fart in your general direction! Your mother was a hamster and your father smelt of elderberries!

with apologies to Cleese, Palin & co.

ThomasNashe

SouthamObserver said:

I don't see how internet polls fit into a Shy No theory. Can someone help?

Come off it. We all know that Alex Salmond has access to records of internet activity for the whole of Scotland.

Stuart_Dickson

The weather for Glasgow for Thursday is currently forecast to be approx 19°C and dry.

Looking good for record turnout.

Cameron is now so desperate that he will probably be booking those planes that can induce rain.

malcolmg

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

audreyanne said:

RCS1000 haha! Good one.

Erm, great theory Paul but who's to say this 'shy no' theory isn't just a pile of poo? Smacks of utter desperation from the No camp to me.

Just look at Malcolm G's post for validation, imagine if someone like that lived next door, in the same block of flats, was a cousin, a colleague or manager at work or associated with your teenage children. Many would keep quiet wouldn't they.

I live in a detached house so cannot hang out the window as dossers like you would do. I have to stroll to engage in conversation with my neighbours. Like me they are intelligent hard working people, not EDL Little Englanders like yourself who for sure will have an ugly shaved head ,bovver boots and large scuttling brow with knuckles dragging the ground

ThomasNashe

TheWatcher said:

ThomasNashe said:

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

audreyanne said:

RCS1000 haha! Good one.

Erm, great theory Paul but who's to say this 'shy no' theory isn't just a pile of poo? Smacks of utter desperation from the No camp to me.

Just look at Malcolm G's post for validation, imagine if someone like that lived next door, in the same block of flats, was a cousin, a colleague or manager at work or associated with your teenage children. Many would keep quiet wouldn't they.

PBers don't appear to have been cowed into silence by his posts?

He can't throw bricks through our windows.

Tbh. Though I support No, the one poster on here whose potential behaviour in the real world would give me cause for concern is the No supporting Hamiltonace.

malcolmg

TheWatcher said:

Anyone doubting the existence of the shy 'No' voter, need only to read the deeply hostile postings of the Neanderthal Malcolmg, a classic Example of a Nat, to understand why they remain silent.

JSA boy is up early , someone must have peed in his super lager last night for him to be conscious this early.

malcolmg

TheWatcher said:

ThomasNashe said:

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

audreyanne said:

RCS1000 haha! Good one.

Erm, great theory Paul but who's to say this 'shy no' theory isn't just a pile of poo? Smacks of utter desperation from the No camp to me.

Just look at Malcolm G's post for validation, imagine if someone like that lived next door, in the same block of flats, was a cousin, a colleague or manager at work or associated with your teenage children. Many would keep quiet wouldn't they.

PBers don't appear to have been cowed into silence by his posts?

He can't throw bricks through our windows.

No windows in a cardboard box under a viaduct so you are safe

malcolmg

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

malcolmg said:

You sick little cowardly erchie

I don't want to talk to you no more, you empty-headed animal food trough wiper! I fart in your general direction! Your mother was a hamster and your father smelt of elderberries!

with apologies to Cleese, Palin & co.

sad little sack cannot even make up his own insult , feeble brained idiot has to get someone to read one to him

edmundintokyo

SouthamObserver said:

rcs1000 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Given that the UK is about to break-up as someone born and living in England I am struggling to see any benefit to us of not going alone ourselves. Although it's harsh, Wales and Northern Ireland are indisputably drains on England's finances. Following the progressive, social democratic lead of Scotland surely it's time to put England first.

Given that the UK is about to break-up as someone born and living in London I am struggling to see any benefit to us of not going alone ourselves. Although it's harsh, The Midlands, the North East and definitely Cornwall are indisputably drains on London's finances. Following the progressive, social democratic lead of Scotland surely it's time to put London first.

You can then rinse and repeat, with "North of the River", "North of the River, and only zones one and two", until you end up with "Chelsea" or "Hampstead"

Well, yes. But unlike Hampstead England is a country and is recognised as such by the vast majority of people who live here. For England to break-up, the English as a whole would need to agree to it. For the same reason, we'll not see any No voting parts of Scotland leaving either.

rcs1000's plan for a Hampstead Republic has those problems, but my plan for an independent City of London recognizes a clearly delineated unit of government dating back to at least 1332. It is clearly not being properly represented by England, which is governed primarily by humans, a totally different species to most of the City of London's citizens, the majority of which are corporations.

Alistair

foxinsoxuk said:

Alistair said:

I've been thinking about the Betfair price a bit more, it's not so crazy (it's still off but not crazy off). Assuming the polling is accurate then with a normal distribution of results a 1% lead for No only means a 26% chance of a win for Yes.

BetFair is currently sitting at 21% so not really that far off.

Wouldn't it depend on the size of Standard Error of the Mean?

But really the key is whether it is a random sample of the population or whether it is a non-random sample that is not representative.

Standard Deviation of these polls is (mostly) 1.5 percentage points which gives the 3% error at 95% confidence.

malcolmg

Too many scummy lower orders on this morning , time to go and read the papers and hope they fall back under the influence early enough. I will return after my eggs benedict.

Stuart_Dickson

Bitter Together still paying folk to actually campaign for them. Punters take note: there is zilch enthusiasm in the No camp.

... Bright-eyed, fresh-faced and displaying the conviction of the chosen, the Jehovah's Witnesses were out in force on Edinburgh's Princes Street last Friday morning. They outnumbered those pushing fliers for the no camp by four to two – and even that pair were hardly zealots for the Better Together cause.

"I'm backing it personally, but I'm being paid to hand these out," one of them explained as commuters poured out of Waverley station and rushed past him, oblivious to the proffered propaganda.

... On Sauchiehall Street, in the centre of Glasgow, Colin Cameron watched the SNP's yes campaigners making their case and shook his head. Born in Govan and now a resident of Easterhouse, one of the city's poorest districts, Cameron has lived in the city for all of his 67 years, but has no time for the SNP.

"If the SNP are to get independence they need to break Labour's Glasgow stronghold," he explained. "The SNP have been planning for this for years. Labour are playing catch-up. They're just not as organised, although they're getting better."

Cameron said he knew people who had not voted for "16 or 17 years, people who don't work, never worked" who were going to vote. And the great risk for Labour –and therefore the union – is that they feel they have nothing to lose by voting against the status quo. "Salmond is the master of the soundbite after all," Cameron muttered ruefully.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/14/scottish-independence-labour-calls-on-party-faithful

SouthamObserver

edmundintokyo said:

SouthamObserver said:

rcs1000 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Given that the UK is about to break-up as someone born and living in England I am struggling to see any benefit to us of not going alone ourselves. Although it's harsh, Wales and Northern Ireland are indisputably drains on England's finances. Following the progressive, social democratic lead of Scotland surely it's time to put England first.

Given that the UK is about to break-up as someone born and living in London I am struggling to see any benefit to us of not going alone ourselves. Although it's harsh, The Midlands, the North East and definitely Cornwall are indisputably drains on London's finances. Following the progressive, social democratic lead of Scotland surely it's time to put London first.

You can then rinse and repeat, with "North of the River", "North of the River, and only zones one and two", until you end up with "Chelsea" or "Hampstead"

Well, yes. But unlike Hampstead England is a country and is recognised as such by the vast majority of people who live here. For England to break-up, the English as a whole would need to agree to it. For the same reason, we'll not see any No voting parts of Scotland leaving either.

rcs1000's plan for a Hampstead Republic has those problems, but my plan for an independent City of London recognizes a clearly delineated unit of government dating back to at least 1332. It is clearly not being properly represented by England, which is governed primarily by humans, a totally different species to most of the City of London's citizens, the majority of which are corporations.

I think the City would deserve independence if it could persuade the people of England to agree to it. The City's rights and privileges were grated to it by the English state back in 1332.

Duderooster

It's all hands to the pump....... we all have to make sacrifices.....ask not what your country can do for you, but what you, etc., etc.................. Consequently I have emailed Glenfiddich Distilleries this morning telling them to remove my name from their 'Friends of Glenfiddich' emailing list.

ThomasNashe

SouthamObserver said:

edmundintokyo said:

SouthamObserver said:

rcs1000 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Given that the UK is about to break-up as someone born and living in England I am struggling to see any benefit to us of not going alone ourselves. Although it's harsh, Wales and Northern Ireland are indisputably drains on England's finances. Following the progressive, social democratic lead of Scotland surely it's time to put England first.

Given that the UK is about to break-up as someone born and living in London I am struggling to see any benefit to us of not going alone ourselves. Although it's harsh, The Midlands, the North East and definitely Cornwall are indisputably drains on London's finances. Following the progressive, social democratic lead of Scotland surely it's time to put London first.

You can then rinse and repeat, with "North of the River", "North of the River, and only zones one and two", until you end up with "Chelsea" or "Hampstead"

Well, yes. But unlike Hampstead England is a country and is recognised as such by the vast majority of people who live here. For England to break-up, the English as a whole would need to agree to it. For the same reason, we'll not see any No voting parts of Scotland leaving either.

rcs1000's plan for a Hampstead Republic has those problems, but my plan for an independent City of London recognizes a clearly delineated unit of government dating back to at least 1332. It is clearly not being properly represented by England, which is governed primarily by humans, a totally different species to most of the City of London's citizens, the majority of which are corporations.

I think the City would deserve independence if it could persuade the people of England to agree to it. The City's rights and privileges were grated to it by the English state back in 1332.

And they'd also need to ensure that rEngland agree to continue selling them food.

Stuart_Dickson

Classy team David Cameron has put together. Here are his brethren in the Orange Order:

https://fbcdn-sphotos-g-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpa1/v/t1.0-9/10417816_808850012511767_1938140517406693498_n.jpg?oh=ed3225a258d781c3a749d6da184291ee&oe=549288E0&__gda__=1419171416_ee56272e8ce8da49f9da861cdf41530d

OldKingCole

NickPalmer said:

OldKingCole said:

What is the normal spread of rate of return for postal vote. 50-60% or better/worse?

Nudging 70% IIRC (in General Elections).

YouGov: Lab 35 Con 32 UKIP 15, LD 7 Green 6. A generally grumpy sample marks Cameron down 7, Miliband down 3 and the Coalition down 7. On how politicians have handled the referendum, Cameron is -20, Salmond +10, Brown + 7, Darling +3. (Not asked re Miliband or Clegg.) But most people don't think Cameron or Miliband should resign if there's a Yes.

Large majorities oppose Scottish MPs having much involvement after a Yes, e.g. 70-14 against their helping form a government in rUK. But English voters don't favour any particular change in how rUK would be governed, e.g. an English Parliament only has 18% support among English voters in the event of Yes, 15% in the event of No. 48-32 approve giving Scotland much greater powers if they vote No.

(59% aren't interested in football. And I thought it was just me.)

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/dx68iw22ce/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-1400912-main.pdf

I’m obliged, Mr Palmer. So at 80%+ we’re seeing an increase of a bit over 20%. These people of course usually vote. Otherwise they wouldn’t apply for a postal one! (Generally speaking .... I realise there are exceptions)

And even in the pub I frequent on a Saturday at about 5pm, while most of those there are inetrested enough to be glad when Man U lose and West Ham win, that’s about the extent of their interest. And it’s the same whether our local teams are home or away.

rogerh

Agree with comment that postal votes more likely to have NO majority-not just because 0f postal favoured by older voters but also because postal votes were cast earlier when yes was further behind in polls.
How significant a factor this may be depends on what proportion of votes are postal.Have seen a figure of 17% but that seems far too low a figure given that both sides would have bben making huge efforts to sign up postal votes.Anyone know the figure?

Edin_Rokz

malcolmg said:

TheWatcher said:

ThomasNashe said:

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

audreyanne said:

RCS1000 haha! Good one.

Erm, great theory Paul but who's to say this 'shy no' theory isn't just a pile of poo? Smacks of utter desperation from the No camp to me.

Just look at Malcolm G's post for validation, imagine if someone like that lived next door, in the same block of flats, was a cousin, a colleague or manager at work or associated with your teenage children. Many would keep quiet wouldn't they.

PBers don't appear to have been cowed into silence by his posts?

He can't throw bricks through our windows.

No windows in a cardboard box under a viaduct so you are safe

There speaks the words of experience, make sure you don't catch your tail in the door on your way home.

Stuart_Dickson

Over £7.9 million now matched on Betfair.

An astonishing £71,500 is still sitting at 1.28 for No.

The finest betting market these isles will ever see, and Mike Smithson blocked James Kelly, and allows his threads to be dominated by clueless wonders.

The world has gone mad.

SouthamObserver

Stuart_Dickson said:

Classy team David Cameron has put together. Here are his brethren in the Orange Order:

https://fbcdn-sphotos-g-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpa1/v/t1.0-9/10417816_808850012511767_1938140517406693498_n.jpg?oh=ed3225a258d781c3a749d6da184291ee&oe=549288E0&__gda__=1419171416
_ee56272e8ce8da49f9da861cdf41530d

We don't really do sectarian bigotry in England. It will be interesting to see how independent Scotland handles its Northern Ireland problem.

Carnyx

FPT

perdix said:

Rupert Murdoch flew in to Scotland today dropping hints of support for YES. He has never had the interests of the UK at heart, just his business. It's time to make a law that all owners of media should be British citizens and resident in Britain. He took US citizenship so that he could be permitted to own big chunks of US media. The Yanks know how to do it. Boycott all Murdoch enterprises.

I can understand this for persons. But how would it work for corporations with shareholders potentially all over the place? (Somethng that has also puzzled me about, for instance, Danish land ownership.)

asjohnstone

Stuart_Dickson said:

Classy team David Cameron has put together. Here are his brethren in the Orange Order:

https://fbcdn-sphotos-g-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpa1/v/t1.0-9/10417816_808850012511767_1938140517406693498_n.jpg?oh=ed3225a258d781c3a749d6da184291ee&oe=549288E0&__gda__=1419171416_ee56272e8ce8da49f9da861cdf41530d

It's a rubbish banner to be sure, but I think you're drawing a very long bow trying to link David Cameron to it.

You can't expect him to own all the other views of people who happen to agree with him on the union.

SouthamObserver

asjohnstone said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Classy team David Cameron has put together. Here are his brethren in the Orange Order:

https://fbcdn-sphotos-g-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpa1/v/t1.0-9/10417816_808850012511767_1938140517406693498_n.jpg?oh=ed3225a258d781c3a749d6da184291ee&oe=549288E0&__gda__=1419171416_ee56272e8ce8da49f9da861cdf41530d

It's a rubbish banner to be sure, but I think you're drawing a very long bow trying to link David Cameron to it.

You can't expect him to own all the other views of people who happen to agree with him on the union.

If you do, then obviously you must also believe that Salmond owns the anti-English, Quisling, Traitor elements of the Yes campaign. I'm sure Stuart would agree with that.

Alanbrooke

Stuart_Dickson said:

Classy team David Cameron has put together. Here are his brethren in the Orange Order:

https://fbcdn-sphotos-g-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpa1/v/t1.0-9/10417816_808850012511767_1938140517406693498_n.jpg?oh=ed3225a258d781c3a749d6da184291ee&oe=549288E0&__gda__=1419171416_ee56272e8http://htmlguide.drgrog.com/cheatsheet.phpce8da49f9da861cdf41530d

given the KKK was founded by a man of scottish origin, I take it you're jealous they got in there before Donaldson

TheWatcher

Stuart_Dickson said:

Classy team David Cameron has put together. Here are his brethren in the Orange Order:

https://fbcdn-sphotos-g-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpa1/v/t1.0-9/10417816_808850012511767_1938140517406693498_n.jpg?oh=ed3225a258d781c3a749d6da184291ee&oe=549288E0&__gda__=1419171416_ee56272e8ce8da49f9da861cdf41530d

Not our problem in the event of a 'Yes'. Another thing we'll be pleased to see the back of.

Is that why you choose to live in Sweden - a dislike of your fellow Scots?

Alanbrooke

SouthamObserver said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Classy team David Cameron has put together. Here are his brethren in the Orange Order:

https://fbcdn-sphotos-g-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpa1/v/t1.0-9/10417816_808850012511767_1938140517406693498_n.jpg?oh=ed3225a258d781c3a749d6da184291ee&oe=549288E0&__gda__=1419171416
_ee56272e8ce8da49f9da861cdf41530d

We don't really do sectarian bigotry in England. It will be interesting to see how independent Scotland handles its Northern Ireland problem.

free unicorns

DavidL

edmundintokyo said:

97% on the electoral register is a huge number. I have a hard time believing it's right - maybe somebody's dividing by the wrong figure, or maybe there are a bunch more people living in Scotland than we expected?

I agree, this sounds almost unbelievably high.

Yesterday I spoke to more than a dozen people in Dundee who volunteered that they were not on the register. There was a Chinese lady who had previously been on but had received no polling card after she moved house. There were an assortment of EU citizens who lived here but had not registered. There was someone whose partner was on but they weren't (possibly for Council tax reasons?), there was one who lived in temporary accommodation and didn't seem to have lived anywhere for long enough. There were English students studying in Dundee but registered to vote at their home address.

All of this could be a statistical fluke. But I suspect the 97% figure is high and that we have a larger transient population than is appreciated.

Ishmael_X

rogerh said:

Agree with comment that postal votes more likely to have NO majority-not just because 0f postal favoured by older voters but also because postal votes were cast earlier when yes was further behind in polls.
How significant a factor this may be depends on what proportion of votes are postal.Have seen a figure of 17% but that seems far too low a figure given that both sides would have bben making huge efforts to sign up postal votes.Anyone know the figure?

Postal voters are the least likely to change their minds (because otherwise they wouldn't be postal voters, they d worry "what of I vote and then change my mind because of the final week of campaigning). The state of the polls is therefore largely irrelevant.

Carnyx

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

malcolmg said:

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

I think that all it shows is that people who will vote no have been cowed into silence

You still posting bullshit you stupid moron, not happy with the media , the newspapers and unlimited cash. You absolute moronic pillock.

says Malcolm G as he immediately proves my point. Does it not occur to you that "no" voters are keeping quite precisely because they dont want to be subject to this sort of thing in person from Zanunats?

You encapsulate the YES strategy, deny reality and then shout down and insult anyone who dares to question it so they are cowed and stay quiet.

Well following on from Carnyx question yesterday heres a reuters report referring to NO voters fearing bricks through their window

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/09/11/uk-scotland-independence-groundgame-spec-idUKKBN0H60DV20140911

I fear for decent people in Scotbabwe

Paul, you need to chillax a bit.

All that that shows is that some people are frightened, okay. But not that such things are actually happening. And that is more likely to be due to the doom and terror published by the newspapers at the behest of Better Together. Remember the polis and their union slapped them down for talk of "absolute carnage" at polling stations. There has been some very strong comment about this in recent newspapers, particularly Iain Macwhirter in the Herald a day or two ago.

The reason I say that is the sheer lack of evidence for such incidents. Any actual incidents would have been ALL OVER THE NEWSPAPERS - such as that block of flats with all the windows smashed, which you adduced yesterday, which turned out to be a car fire with damage to adjacent windows (as far as we can see). Look how much attention the media gave Mr Murphy's egg - you practically had the DNA sequence, never mind the date-stamp. And incidents of violence would have been meat and drink to the still mostly Unionist papers.

The other factor is that in quite a few areas, until quite recently, it would be the Yes posters which would attract the bricks - and we're not getting any sense that that is happening either.

Some of the stuff being posted - not by you - is getting seriously absurd. If marching to the polls is illegal, then fine. But people shouldn't pretend that a bunch of kds in face paint abd balloons is the Hitler Youth [edit: or some such thing], especially when we don't even know that anything like that is going to happen anywhere.

malcolmg

Edin_Rokz said:

malcolmg said:

TheWatcher said:

ThomasNashe said:

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

audreyanne said:

RCS1000 haha! Good one.

Erm, great theory Paul but who's to say this 'shy no' theory isn't just a pile of poo? Smacks of utter desperation from the No camp to me.

Just look at Malcolm G's post for validation, imagine if someone like that lived next door, in the same block of flats, was a cousin, a colleague or manager at work or associated with your teenage children. Many would keep quiet wouldn't they.

PBers don't appear to have been cowed into silence by his posts?

He can't throw bricks through our windows.

No windows in a cardboard box under a viaduct so you are safe

There speaks the words of experience, make sure you don't catch your tail in the door on your way home.

another cockroach crawled out of the woodwork I see

malcolmg

SouthamObserver said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Classy team David Cameron has put together. Here are his brethren in the Orange Order:

https://fbcdn-sphotos-g-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpa1/v/t1.0-9/10417816_808850012511767_1938140517406693498_n.jpg?oh=ed3225a258d781c3a749d6da184291ee&oe=549288E0&__gda__=1419171416
_ee56272e8ce8da49f9da861cdf41530d

We don't really do sectarian bigotry in England. It will be interesting to see how independent Scotland handles its Northern Ireland problem.

send them back tout suite

Carnyx

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

audreyanne said:

RCS1000 haha! Good one.

Erm, great theory Paul but who's to say this 'shy no' theory isn't just a pile of poo? Smacks of utter desperation from the No camp to me.

Just look at Malcolm G's post for validation, imagine if someone like that lived next door, in the same block of flats, was a cousin, a colleague or manager at work or associated with your teenage children. Many would keep quiet wouldn't they.

Works the other way, too, remember. Imagine living next to some of the other posters on PB. I'd keep shtum - though would probably not resist the temptation to suggest an alternative view of the matter if the subject came up.

Alanbrooke

malcolmg said:

SouthamObserver said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Classy team David Cameron has put together. Here are his brethren in the Orange Order:

https://fbcdn-sphotos-g-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpa1/v/t1.0-9/10417816_808850012511767_1938140517406693498_n.jpg?oh=ed3225a258d781c3a749d6da184291ee&oe=549288E0&__gda__=1419171416
_ee56272e8ce8da49f9da861cdf41530d

We don't really do sectarian bigotry in England. It will be interesting to see how independent Scotland handles its Northern Ireland problem.

send them back tout suite

the holy ground would be welcome malc, then I can keep annoying all the scots over there

RochdalePioneers

Setting aside the mindless abuse that appears to have come out this morning, is the summary that the more people we see queueing to vote on Thursday the higher the probability of a Yes vote?

MikeK

Paul Oakley UKIP ‏@PaulJamesOakley 5m
UKIP Yorkshire MEP gets death threats for having the audacity to speak out about Rotherham child abuse scandal http://dly.st/Xgfd2G

But we do have sectarianism and we know were most of it comes from.

anothernick

Financier said:

SouthamObserver said:

asjohnstone said:

OldKingCole said:

Let’s for a moment, assume the vote is NO. Narrow but there it is.

Scotland now has a big increase in the numbers on th Register; what is that going to do to the vote in the May GE? Increase the SNP Vote significantly? Or the Labour one? Or both about equally?

Can’t see the increase in registered electors helping either the Tories or the LibDems!

Probably stay at home, in the event of a "no", many of these people will never vote again

The crushing reality of independence will ensure they stay at home after Yes wins. Scottish Labour will win the first GE in an independent Scotland on a low turnout because the SNP's countless untruths and false claims will have been thoroughly exposed by then.

So would then Scottish Labour attempt to row back, as Independence based on the SNP's projection having been shown to be false, towards a new union?

Yes I think its scenario should not be ruled out. If Labour wins nationally in 2015 and in Scotland in 2016 there would probably be another referendum on a "devomax" option. There is no way Scotland will achieve independence by 2016 - EU negotiations would take a mini mum of 5 years and probably much longer, during which investment decisions would be put on gold, financial institutions would move out and the property market would collapse. By the latter part of this decade some kind of devomax compromise might seem the best way out for all sides.

MonikerDiCanio

There's a GE in Sweden today. Hope the xenophobic Nationalists flop.
http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2014/sep/11/swedish-elections-sweden-votes-2014-key-facts

OldKingCole

Watching the Last Night of Proms last night I was struck by two things. How few Saltires were being waved. Union Flags, of course, in great numbers. Welsh, Asssie even German flags. But I didn’t see a Saltire.

Secondly, in the event of a YES will Auld Lang Syne still be sung at the cloase?

MikeK

ThomasNashe said:

rcs1000 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Given that the UK is about to break-up as someone born and living in England I am struggling to see any benefit to us of not going alone ourselves. Although it's harsh, Wales and Northern Ireland are indisputably drains on England's finances. Following the progressive, social democratic lead of Scotland surely it's time to put England first.

Given that the UK is about to break-up as someone born and living in London I am struggling to see any benefit to us of not going alone ourselves. Although it's harsh, The Midlands, the North East and definitely Cornwall are indisputably drains on London's finances. Following the progressive, social democratic lead of Scotland surely it's time to put London first.

You can then rinse and repeat, with "North of the River", "North of the River, and only zones one and two", until you end up with "Chelsea" or "Hampstead"

Reminds me of Wolfie (Citizen) Smith: 'Freedom for Tooting!'

Or Passport to Pimlico; if only we had a certified but undisclosed Norman connection to Richmond-on Thames.

malcolmg

I note the BBC did not publicise the poll taken at their bigbigdebate for 16-17 year olds. Approx 8000 sampled and 60/40 for YES

malcolmg

Carnyx said:

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

audreyanne said:

RCS1000 haha! Good one.

Erm, great theory Paul but who's to say this 'shy no' theory isn't just a pile of poo? Smacks of utter desperation from the No camp to me.

Just look at Malcolm G's post for validation, imagine if someone like that lived next door, in the same block of flats, was a cousin, a colleague or manager at work or associated with your teenage children. Many would keep quiet wouldn't they.

Works the other way, too, remember. Imagine living next to some of the other posters on PB. I'd keep shtum - though would probably not resist the temptation to suggest an alternative view of the matter if the subject came up.

Carnyx , he is a whinging little no mark , calling people nazi's from behind a keyboard, your typical yellow belly lickspittle unionist and scared of his own shadow. A pathetic cretin.

Alanbrooke

malcolmg said:

I note the BBC did not publicise the poll taken at their bigbigdebate for 16-17 year olds. Approx 8000 sampled and 60/40 for YES

that will all change today over Sunday lunch when their grannies tell them to catch themselves on.

DavidL

On intimidation and possible shy No's I would suggest this.

There is a lot of fear and apprehension on the part of the BT campaigners. I have personally seen nothing to justify that.

I was talking to an older man yesterday who said he had been assaulted because he was wearing a BT badge and called an "English bastard" (he of course lives in Dundee).

People who work in the public sector are particularly apprehensive. Not only are they vigorously discouraged from expressing a view at work, they are worried about doing so out of it as well. They would not take badges yesterday.

I got quite a few anatomically uncomfortable suggestions about what to do with my leaflets yesterday. I think this is just politics.

malcolmg

Alanbrooke said:

malcolmg said:

SouthamObserver said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Classy team David Cameron has put together. Here are his brethren in the Orange Order:

https://fbcdn-sphotos-g-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpa1/v/t1.0-9/10417816_808850012511767_1938140517406693498_n.jpg?oh=ed3225a258d781c3a749d6da184291ee&oe=549288E0&__gda__=1419171416
_ee56272e8ce8da49f9da861cdf41530d

We don't really do sectarian bigotry in England. It will be interesting to see how independent Scotland handles its Northern Ireland problem.

send them back tout suite

the holy ground would be welcome malc, then I can keep annoying all the scots over there

LOL, being near the ferry port we have some crackers moved to this area for health reasons. Not sure how much of an asset they are to the local community mind you.

Gadfly

My latest moving average chart of YouGov polls since the 2010 GE...

http://www.mediafire.com/view/13kxtln1541y6l1/YouGov 10-poll MA.jpg#

Alanbrooke

malcolmg said:

Alanbrooke said:

malcolmg said:

SouthamObserver said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Classy team David Cameron has put together. Here are his brethren in the Orange Order:

https://fbcdn-sphotos-g-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpa1/v/t1.0-9/10417816_808850012511767_1938140517406693498_n.jpg?oh=ed3225a258d781c3a749d6da184291ee&oe=549288E0&__gda__=1419171416
_ee56272e8ce8da49f9da861cdf41530d

We don't really do sectarian bigotry in England. It will be interesting to see how independent Scotland handles its Northern Ireland problem.

send them back tout suite

the holy ground would be welcome malc, then I can keep annoying all the scots over there

LOL, being near the ferry port we have some crackers moved to this area for health reasons. Not sure how much of an asset they are to the local community mind you.

Huge malc, they'll all be voting No ;-)

malcolmg

MikeK said:

Paul Oakley UKIP ‏@PaulJamesOakley 5m
UKIP Yorkshire MEP gets death threats for having the audacity to speak out about Rotherham child abuse scandal http://dly.st/Xgfd2G

But we do have sectarianism and we know were most of it comes from.

Looks like Paul mid wasteland will be quaking in his boots now we have death threats and intimidation near his block of flats. Board up your windows quick Paul.

MonikerDiCanio

malcolmg said:

Carnyx said:

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

audreyanne said:

RCS1000 haha! Good one.

Erm, great theory Paul but who's to say this 'shy no' theory isn't just a pile of poo? Smacks of utter desperation from the No camp to me.

Just look at Malcolm G's post for validation, imagine if someone like that lived next door, in the same block of flats, was a cousin, a colleague or manager at work or associated with your teenage children. Many would keep quiet wouldn't they.

Works the other way, too, remember. Imagine living next to some of the other posters on PB. I'd keep shtum - though would probably not resist the temptation to suggest an alternative view of the matter if the subject came up.

Carnyx , he is a whinging little no mark , calling people nazi's from behind a keyboard, your typical yellow belly lickspittle unionist and scared of his own shadow. A pathetic cretin.

When are you off on your annual Bavarian pilgrimage ?

JonnyJimmy

@malcolmg‌ I've got an idea for a film you could make with roger, if you can afford him, that might help push YES!!! over the real, genuine, absolutely definitely the last, tipping point.

You, or if you don't think you're up to it you could hire someone - maybe a foreign actor, to play you, would run into shot over the hill wearing nothing but boots, your kilt and blue and white paint, clutching your voting slip in one hand and a biro in the other. Your voting slip has one half with a simple, blue "OCH AYE" followed by a bold cross, the other half filthied with a dirty brown "THE NO" by an empty space.

Into town you'd charge, chanting "OCH AYE! OCH AYE!", waking those still sleeping and bringing the rest out in the streets. They follow you to the town centre, all holding their as yet unmarked voting slips. You reach a platform and call out to the now massed crowd,

"NO are the no hopers , no vision , no change I am scared people.

YES are people who have hope, want change and have vision.

Empty glass versus half full glass.

I am happy to be YES and I pity the scared people who have no hope , no courage and no vision.

OCH AYE for FREEDOM!!!!"

Then charge off to the polling booth with the now frenzied crowd all chanting "OCH AYE!" with you and with their Xs marked accordingly. You cast your votes and continue to charge out down a new, separate and undiscovered road towards the sun, maybe with Salmond's smiling face appearing in the sun.

You could call it "FREEDOM!!" and get a youtube video of it to go viral just in time I'm sure (You might want a bit of time to rewrite your bit though?). Then get true Scots in every town to reenact your part on polling day, get the crowds running and OCH AYE!!ing and watch the YES!!! votes pile up

Plato

I do like EWNIonists! Very witty.

Financier said:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2754973/Scotland-meltdown-fiasco-100-days-independence.html

very amusing piece by the historian Andrew Roberts

malcolmg

Alanbrooke said:

malcolmg said:

Alanbrooke said:

malcolmg said:

SouthamObserver said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Classy team David Cameron has put together. Here are his brethren in the Orange Order:

https://fbcdn-sphotos-g-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpa1/v/t1.0-9/10417816_808850012511767_1938140517406693498_n.jpg?oh=ed3225a258d781c3a749d6da184291ee&oe=549288E0&__gda__=1419171416
_ee56272e8ce8da49f9da861cdf41530d

We don't really do sectarian bigotry in England. It will be interesting to see how independent Scotland handles its Northern Ireland problem.

send them back tout suite

the holy ground would be welcome malc, then I can keep annoying all the scots over there

LOL, being near the ferry port we have some crackers moved to this area for health reasons. Not sure how much of an asset they are to the local community mind you.

Huge malc, they'll all be voting No ;-)

If they make it back from Edinburgh in time

malcolmg

JonnyJimmy said:

@malcolmg‌ I've got an idea for a film you could make with roger, if you can afford him, that might help push YES!!! over the real, genuine, absolutely definitely the last, tipping point.

You, or if you don't think you're up to it you could hire someone - maybe a foreign actor, to play you, would run into shot over the hill wearing nothing but boots, your kilt and blue and white paint, clutching your voting slip in one hand and a biro in the other. Your voting slip has one half with a simple, blue "OCH AYE" followed by a bold cross, the other half filthied with a dirty brown "THE NO" by an empty space.

Into town you'd charge, chanting "OCH AYE! OCH AYE!", waking those still sleeping and bringing the rest out in the streets. They follow you to the town centre, all holding their as yet unmarked voting slips. You reach a platform and call out to the now massed crowd,

"NO are the no hopers , no vision , no change I am scared people.

YES are people who have hope, want change and have vision.

Empty glass versus half full glass.

I am happy to be YES and I pity the scared people who have no hope , no courage and no vision.

OCH AYE for FREEDOM!!!!"

Then charge off to the polling booth with the now frenzied crowd all chanting "OCH AYE!" with you and with their Xs marked accordingly. You cast your votes and continue to charge out down a new, separate and undiscovered road towards the sun, maybe with Salmond's smiling face appearing in the sun.

You could call it "FREEDOM!!" and get a youtube video of it to go viral just in time I'm sure (You might want a bit of time to rewrite your bit though?). Then get true Scots in every town to reenact your part on polling day, get the crowds running and OCH AYE!!ing and watch the YES!!! votes pile up

JJ , even though you can't work out what your name is you are not as daft as your posts suggest, you may have a future in Bollywood.

malcolmg

MonikerDiCanio said:

malcolmg said:

Carnyx said:

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

audreyanne said:

RCS1000 haha! Good one.

Erm, great theory Paul but who's to say this 'shy no' theory isn't just a pile of poo? Smacks of utter desperation from the No camp to me.

Just look at Malcolm G's post for validation, imagine if someone like that lived next door, in the same block of flats, was a cousin, a colleague or manager at work or associated with your teenage children. Many would keep quiet wouldn't they.

Works the other way, too, remember. Imagine living next to some of the other posters on PB. I'd keep shtum - though would probably not resist the temptation to suggest an alternative view of the matter if the subject came up.

Carnyx , he is a whinging little no mark , calling people nazi's from behind a keyboard, your typical yellow belly lickspittle unionist and scared of his own shadow. A pathetic cretin.

When are you off on your annual Bavarian pilgrimage ?

Monica , Spain this month , but will be back in Bavaria next year for sure.

saddened

Impressed that the moderators are allowing us to watch someone have a mental breakdown in real time. It's not something you get to see very often.

malcolmg

RochdalePioneers said:

Setting aside the mindless abuse that appears to have come out this morning, is the summary that the more people we see queueing to vote on Thursday the higher the probability of a Yes vote?

YES , setting aside pompous erchies