@Alanbrooke RBS screwed up the same way as the rest of the companies world wide, they got drunk on greed and power. It is the natural conclusion to the "free market", then we all start the merry go round once again.
That great UK bank run from London was leading the charge
LOL make your mind up, one minute they're a scottish bank bluffing about leaving and upsetting Salmond, the next they're an english bank.
Alan they are a global bank currently contracting back to a UK bank , they have not been Scottish for many many years and they are not an English bank either.
In which the UK govt is an 81% shareholder and where Scotland's balance sheet is smaller than theirs, so they'll go. Why Salmond's pretending otherwise is plain pathetic.
And the other big banks and pension cos will go too.
Alan, heard it all before, it will be a paper move, RBS are already in London , they will keep their Scottish function as it is significantly cheaper than having it in London, the top brass will remain as ever in London and may give up their annual visit to Edinburgh at best.
Nonsense there are 100,000 finance sector jobs in Scotland and you'll lose about half of them.
Nats wittering on about brass plates ignore the people, for example, who administer my pensions or the 1000 or so who work in RBS HQ. But it's always easy to wipe out someone else's job when you don't have to worry about your own.
Alan, who knows what could happen to my own once I am a foreigner
Well at least of the Nats on the board you're the only one who has a plan B if it goes wrong.
Admittedly it's sell up and move south for your pension but that's streets ahead of the Scottish Government who don't even appear to have a realistic Plan A.
Question is will Georgie Porgy have to announce it before the vote or can he hang on till Friday.
Malcolm if there is a yes vote, it will not be a rushed announcement on the steps of the treasury, similar to Lamont and a young bag carrying Cameron. It will be already rehearsed in a very formal manner to offer reassurance.
There will be an announcement sure to say " business as usual till actual independence BoE stands behind all current UK institutions till separation details are finalised etc etc blah blah". Fair enough. But that's not a future CU after independence.
A vast amount of water will go under the bridge in negotiations but I think it!s political suicide south of the border to agree a CU post actual independence. Or at least without an rUK referendum and I cannot see it passing that.
It will be agreed same as a timetable for Trident which will not go down well in Scotland. They are two cheeks of the same arse and a deal with a fixed timescale will have to be done by both sides. 2020 is the likely timescale for both.
So just to be clear - you do not expect Scotland to be in a currency union with rUK post 2020?
I personally don't think so but obviously it will not be up to me.
So you agree with Better Together then! There's a turn-up for the books.
Has anyone told the voters that all these discussions about the future currency of Scotland, and whether BT is "bluffing" or not, is only to cover the next six years?
Obviously the rUK will have no problem with short term transitional arrangements where such arrangements are in their interests. (again whether even a short term currency union is sustainable is another matter)
"This vote is not about nationalism, it is about social democracy, and for myself and the people of Scotland, social democracy is at the root of our desire for Independence. "An independent state of Scotland will reinforce its own laws, embrace new forms of political thinking, new creeds, new political parties, and new positions of argument. "Independence will allow a new system to be put in place, and in Scotland's case, and for the people of Scotland, a system of social equality where the yoke of the old feudal ideologies are finally dismantled."
Must have missed the bits about the workers soviets. Though Cox seems to ignore that Scotland kept its legal system, its education system and its health care system. I'm sure that his remarks will help reassure banks, savers, depositors, pension funds, retailers, investors that their money is safer elsewhere. I am certain that his modest proposals will not lead to the passage of a new article 58 of The Scottish Penal code which leads to an automatic 5 year re-education programme.
@Alanbrooke RBS screwed up the same way as the rest of the companies world wide, they got drunk on greed and power. It is the natural conclusion to the "free market", then we all start the merry go round once again.
That great UK bank run from London was leading the charge
LOL make your mind up, one minute they're a scottish bank bluffing about leaving and upsetting Salmond, the next they're an english bank.
Alan they are a global bank currently contracting back to a UK bank , they have not been Scottish for many many years and they are not an English bank either.
In which the UK govt is an 81% shareholder and where Scotland's balance sheet is smaller than theirs, so they'll go. Why Salmond's pretending otherwise is plain pathetic.
And the other big banks and pension cos will go too.
Alan, heard it all before, it will be a paper move, RBS are already in London , they will keep their Scottish function as it is significantly cheaper than having it in London, the top brass will remain as ever in London and may give up their annual visit to Edinburgh at best.
Nonsense there are 100,000 finance sector jobs in Scotland and you'll lose about half of them.
Nats wittering on about brass plates ignore the people, for example, who administer my pensions or the 1000 or so who work in RBS HQ. But it's always easy to wipe out someone else's job when you don't have to worry about your own.
Morning, Mr. Brooke, could it not be a good idea for thr rUK government to make a present of its shares in RBS to iScotland's government. A nice big fat asset for the Scots to own all the jobs stay in Scotland as do all the liabilities. True having a bank with a balance sheet larger than one's GDP without your own currency or central bank may not be a great idea but then nor are lot of other things being talked about.
SO, if indeed it is all lies and false claims , how bad is the situation in Scotland due to Westminster misrule that people will believe the lies and the false claims and vote YES. Not everybody is stupid so one can only conclude that they have seen the future under Westminster , do not like what they see and will take any chance to get out of it. people are not choosing it for a flag or any such rubbish , they want a fairer country where the rich do not make all the decisions and take all the money. Optimism and hope are replacing doom and gloom. It is a natural reaction.
Malc - In your open honest and unbiased personal opinion what do you think the outcome will be? Clearly you're saying a YES - but by how much?
Patrick, putting me on the spot. I think the lies this week will change some people's mind , my own daughter is wobbling re finances , mortgages etc, but overall it will have hardened opinions to YES. Th emillionaire MP's taking a day trip, Effete Westminster party leaders talking to selected groups behind locked doors and dullards like Brown and Farage trying to feel important will all drive people to Yes. I think in region of 55% YES is a reasonable number, but the sense of optimism may really change things.
Malcolm , I support yes , but the reports put about by likes of the Deutsche Bank are scary stuff so close to the last crisis. I imagine it would make some people twitch a bit. I believe there will be a currency union, to stop a crisis after a yes vote. The markets will not let them have a cosy chat about it for 2 years.
Question is will Georgie Porgy have to announce it before the vote or can he hang on till Friday.
Malcolm if there is a yes vote, it will not be a rushed announcement on the steps of the treasury, similar to Lamont and a young bag carrying Cameron. It will be already rehearsed in a very formal manner to offer reassurance.
There will be an announcement sure to say " business as usual till actual independence BoE stands behind all current UK institutions till separation details are finalised etc etc blah blah". Fair enough. But that's not a future CU after independence.
A vast amount of water will go under the bridge in negotiations but I think it!s political suicide south of the border to agree a CU post actual independence. Or at least without an rUK referendum and I cannot see it passing that.
It will be agreed same as a timetable for Trident which will not go down well in Scotland. They are two cheeks of the same arse and a deal with a fixed timescale will have to be done by both sides. 2020 is the likely timescale for both.
Yeah something like that but I suspect the temporary Trident answer before building a new base in Falmouth or wherever will be to sail the boats pronto to Georgia where Uncle Sam will be pleased to loan out a couple of piers for ten years or so
At the risk of going off-topic, 'Tomorrow Belongs to Me' is probably the most important song in musical theatre. I have not heard, seen or read anything - whether documentary, fictional or analytical history - which so well encapsulates the corrupted hope that lay at the heart of the Nazi success in the 1930s. To put the words into the mouth of a 12-13 year-old youth just adds heart-breaking genius. Who doesn't want to believe that tomorrow belongs to them at that age? And yet even saying that betrays the dark, beating heart at the centre of the movement: the sense of absolute entitlement; the implicit 'and not to you', which in tolerant societies would be coached out but which is instead encouraged. And the final counterpoint, stridently obvious to us but unheard to him: we know the future that really belongs to him.
@Alanbrooke RBS screwed up the same way as the rest of the companies world wide, they got drunk on greed and power. It is the natural conclusion to the "free market", then we all start the merry go round once again.
That great UK bank run from London was leading the charge
LOL make your mind up, one minute they're a scottish bank bluffing about leaving and upsetting Salmond, the next they're an english bank.
Alan they are a global bank currently contracting back to a UK bank , they have not been Scottish for many many years and they are not an English bank either.
In which the UK govt is an 81% shareholder and where Scotland's balance sheet is smaller than theirs, so they'll go. Why Salmond's pretending otherwise is plain pathetic.
And the other big banks and pension cos will go too.
Alan, heard it all before, it will be a paper move, RBS are already in London , they will keep their Scottish function as it is significantly cheaper than having it in London, the top brass will remain as ever in London and may give up their annual visit to Edinburgh at best.
Nonsense there are 100,000 finance sector jobs in Scotland and you'll lose about half of them.
Nats wittering on about brass plates ignore the people, for example, who administer my pensions or the 1000 or so who work in RBS HQ. But it's always easy to wipe out someone else's job when you don't have to worry about your own.
Alan, who knows what could happen to my own once I am a foreigner
Well at least of the Nats on the board you're the only one who has a plan B if it goes wrong.
Admittedly it's sell up and move south for your pension but that's streets ahead of the Scottish Government who don't even appear to have a realistic Plan A.
That was a joke Alan , if I move it will be to sunnier climes , but is very unlikely indeed.
@Alanbrooke RBS screwed up the same way as the rest of the companies world wide, they got drunk on greed and power. It is the natural conclusion to the "free market", then we all start the merry go round once again.
That great UK bank run from London was leading the charge
LOL make your mind up, one minute they're a scottish bank bluffing about leaving and upsetting Salmond, the next they're an english bank.
Alan they are a global bank currently contracting back to a UK bank , they have not been Scottish for many many years and they are not an English bank either.
In which the UK govt is an 81% shareholder and where Scotland's balance sheet is smaller than theirs, so they'll go. Why Salmond's pretending otherwise is plain pathetic.
And the other big banks and pension cos will go too.
Alan, heard it all before, it will be a paper move, RBS are already in London , they will keep their Scottish function as it is significantly cheaper than having it in London, the top brass will remain as ever in London and may give up their annual visit to Edinburgh at best.
Nonsense there are 100,000 finance sector jobs in Scotland and you'll lose about half of them.
Nats wittering on about brass plates ignore the people, for example, who administer my pensions or the 1000 or so who work in RBS HQ. But it's always easy to wipe out someone else's job when you don't have to worry about your own.
Morning, Mr. Brooke, could it not be a good idea for thr rUK government to make a present of its shares in RBS to iScotland's government. A nice big fat asset for the Scots to own all the jobs stay in Scotland as do all the liabilities. True having a bank with a balance sheet larger than one's GDP without your own currency or central bank may not be a great idea but then nor are lot of other things being talked about.
Another wittering halfwit, more than 95% of RBS's 100K+ jobs are outside Scotland , it is not a Scottish bank.
@david_herdson Yes, it was written by a couple of Jewish songwriters, and the words in the version posted were subtly changed. When it was first sung by Alex (in Berlin I believe) the audience had a WTF? moment before realising what those small changes meant.
Question is will Georgie Porgy have to announce it before the vote or can he hang on till Friday.
Malcolm if there is a yes vote, it will not be a rushed announcement on the steps of the treasury, similar to Lamont and a young bag carrying Cameron. It will be already rehearsed in a very formal manner to offer reassurance.
There will be an announcement sure to say " business as usual till actual independence BoE stands behind all current UK institutions till separation details are finalised etc etc blah blah". Fair enough. But that's not a future CU after independence.
A vast amount of water will go under the bridge in negotiations but I think it!s political suicide south of the border to agree a CU post actual independence. Or at least without an rUK referendum and I cannot see it passing that.
It will be agreed same as a timetable for Trident which will not go down well in Scotland. They are two cheeks of the same arse and a deal with a fixed timescale will have to be done by both sides. 2020 is the likely timescale for both.
So just to be clear - you do not expect Scotland to be in a currency union with rUK post 2020?
I personally don't think so but obviously it will not be up to me.
So you agree with Better Together then! There's a turn-up for the books.
Has anyone told the voters that all these discussions about the future currency of Scotland, and whether BT is "bluffing" or not, is only to cover the next six years?
Obviously the rUK will have no problem with short term transitional arrangements where such arrangements are in their interests. (again whether even a short term currency union is sustainable is another matter)
Alex , i do not agree with BT , they lie and claim we will lose the pound. YES have clearly said we will keep the pound and then plan what is best for Scotland's future. That is nowhere near the BT position which is completely false , they say we will have no currency , no money , no pensions , no jobs , no NHS , etc etc
ps: I was giving a personal opinion , I am not a spokesman for YES or SNP or any other organisation.
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick 4m Grandmasters of the Orange Order gathered from all over the UK in Edinburgh this morning to defend the Union http://tinyurl.com/kbo798b
@Alanbrooke RBS screwed up the same way as the rest of the companies world wide, they got drunk on greed and power. It is the natural conclusion to the "free market", then we all start the merry go round once again.
That great UK bank run from London was leading the charge
LOL make your mind up, one minute they're a scottish bank bluffing about leaving and upsetting Salmond, the next they're an english bank.
Alan they are a global bank currently contracting back to a UK bank , they have not been Scottish for many many years and they are not an English bank either.
In which the UK govt is an 81% shareholder and where Scotland's balance sheet is smaller than theirs, so they'll go. Why Salmond's pretending otherwise is plain pathetic.
And the other big banks and pension cos will go too.
Alan, heard it all before, it will be a paper move, RBS are already in London , they will keep their Scottish function as it is significantly cheaper than having it in London, the top brass will remain as ever in London and may give up their annual visit to Edinburgh at best.
Nonsense there are 100,000 finance sector jobs in Scotland and you'll lose about half of them.
Nats wittering on about brass plates ignore the people, for example, who administer my pensions or the 1000 or so who work in RBS HQ. But it's always easy to wipe out someone else's job when you don't have to worry about your own.
Alan, who knows what could happen to my own once I am a foreigner
Well at least of the Nats on the board you're the only one who has a plan B if it goes wrong.
Admittedly it's sell up and move south for your pension but that's streets ahead of the Scottish Government who don't even appear to have a realistic Plan A.
That was a joke Alan , if I move it will be to sunnier climes , but is very unlikely indeed.
easy mistake, these days it's getting increasingly difficult to distiguish between a joke and an economic maifesto.
SO, if indeed it is all lies and false claims , how bad is the situation in Scotland due to Westminster misrule that people will believe the lies and the false claims and vote YES. Not everybody is stupid so one can only conclude that they have seen the future under Westminster , do not like what they see and will take any chance to get out of it. people are not choosing it for a flag or any such rubbish , they want a fairer country where the rich do not make all the decisions and take all the money. Optimism and hope are replacing doom and gloom. It is a natural reaction.
People in Scotland feel exactly the same about Westminster as people across the rest of the UK. As I said, the Westminster elite have created the conditions in which the SNP can thrive. But that does not excuse the SNP's countless lies and their willingness to take Scots into penury in order to create an international frontier. They know that they will be found out and they know that it does not matter. The only important thing is that Yes. The disillusion and disappointment coming to Scotland after the initial euphoria of the independence vote will be crushing. At least no-one can say they have not been warned.
SO, if indeed it is all lies and false claims , how bad is the situation in Scotland due to Westminster misrule that people will believe the lies and the false claims and vote YES. Not everybody is stupid so one can only conclude that they have seen the future under Westminster , do not like what they see and will take any chance to get out of it. people are not choosing it for a flag or any such rubbish , they want a fairer country where the rich do not make all the decisions and take all the money. Optimism and hope are replacing doom and gloom. It is a natural reaction.
People in Scotland feel exactly the same bout Westminster as people across the rest of the UK. As I said, the Westminster elite have created the conditions in which the SNP can thrive. But that does not excuse the SNP's countless lies and their willingness to take Scots into penury in order to create an international frontier. They know that they will be found out ad hey know that it does not matter. The only important thing is that Yes. The disillusion and disappointment coming to Scotland after the initial euphoria of the Yes will be crushing. At least no-one can say they have not been warned.
I know it's sometimes difficult to remember on PB, but you don't get bonus points for the number of times you repeat something.
A very good post, Mr. O. Whilst I agree with your substantive points where I must part company with you is over the passion for the Union. I will be marginally sad to see it go but no more than that and I suspect a large proportion of the English, perhaps even the majority, feel much the same.
For whatever reasons, and they really don't matter, the two countries have grown apart and are largely looking for different solutions. These things happen and, as with a marriage, sometimes its best to let it go as continuing to try and force compromises on both sides is more cruel than going through the pain of the split. The Better Together campaign is often criticised, not least on here, for not presenting a positive case for the Union. Well, perhaps they haven't done that because in reality there is no such case to be made.
So I hope for a Yes vote on Thursday and I will wish the Scots well and expect my government to get the best possible deal for rUK in the subsequent negotiations.
@Alanbrooke RBS screwed up the same way as the rest of the companies world wide, they got drunk on greed and power. It is the natural conclusion to the "free market", then we all start the merry go round once again.
That great UK bank run from London was leading the charge
LOL make your mind up, one minute they're a scottish bank bluffing about leaving and upsetting Salmond, the next they're an english bank.
Alan they are a global bank currently contracting back to a UK bank , they have not been Scottish for many many years and they are not an English bank either.
In which the UK govt is an 81% shareholder and where Scotland's balance sheet is smaller than theirs, so they'll go. Why Salmond's pretending otherwise is plain pathetic.
And the other big banks and pension cos will go too.
Alan, heard it all before, it will be a paper move, RBS are already in London , they will keep their Scottish function as it is significantly cheaper than having it in London, the top brass will remain as ever in London and may give up their annual visit to Edinburgh at best.
Nonsense there are 100,000 finance sector jobs in Scotland and you'll lose about half of them.
Nats wittering on about brass plates ignore the people, for example, who administer my pensions or the 1000 or so who work in RBS HQ. But it's always easy to wipe out someone else's job when you don't have to worry about your own.
Morning, Mr. Brooke, could it not be a good idea for thr rUK government to make a present of its shares in RBS to iScotland's government. A nice big fat asset for the Scots to own all the jobs stay in Scotland as do all the liabilities. True having a bank with a balance sheet larger than one's GDP without your own currency or central bank may not be a great idea but then nor are lot of other things being talked about.
Another wittering halfwit, more than 95% of RBS's 100K+ jobs are outside Scotland , it is not a Scottish bank.
7000 jobs are inside Scotland. All the highly paid ones are in the HQ 1000 or so of them will go. In plc 's when the CEO moves his seat the rest of the staff follow.
@Alanbrooke RBS screwed up the same way as the rest of the companies world wide, they got drunk on greed and power. It is the natural conclusion to the "free market", then we all start the merry go round once again.
That great UK bank run from London was leading the charge
LOL make your mind up, one minute they're a scottish bank bluffing about leaving and upsetting Salmond, the next they're an english bank.
Alan they are a global bank currently contracting back to a UK bank , they have not been Scottish for many many years and they are not an English bank either.
In which the UK govt is an 81% shareholder and where Scotland's balance sheet is smaller than theirs, so they'll go. Why Salmond's pretending otherwise is plain pathetic.
And the other big banks and pension cos will go too.
Alan, heard it all before, it will be a paper move, RBS are already in London , they will keep their Scottish function as it is significantly cheaper than having it in London, the top brass will remain as ever in London and may give up their annual visit to Edinburgh at best.
Nonsense there are 100,000 finance sector jobs in Scotland and you'll lose about half of them.
Nats wittering on about brass plates ignore the people, for example, who administer my pensions or the 1000 or so who work in RBS HQ. But it's always easy to wipe out someone else's job when you don't have to worry about your own.
Alan, who knows what could happen to my own once I am a foreigner
Well at least of the Nats on the board you're the only one who has a plan B if it goes wrong.
Admittedly it's sell up and move south for your pension but that's streets ahead of the Scottish Government who don't even appear to have a realistic Plan A.
That was a joke Alan , if I move it will be to sunnier climes , but is very unlikely indeed.
easy mistake, these days it's getting increasingly difficult to distiguish between a joke and an economic maifesto.
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick 4m Grandmasters of the Orange Order gathered from all over the UK in Edinburgh this morning to defend the Union http://tinyurl.com/kbo798b
Did you see Hamiltonace
ps:I see in comments they are all asking if Flash is there, wonder if that is the Flash of this parish
Of course you can keep the pound, but in order to hang on to enough pounds you will need to generate a large of amount services and products people need and want.
Scotland doesn't. Oil will help, but as Venezuela shows, it is not enough of itself. You will need large and prosperous businesses and an entrepreneurial culture.
You don't have either. The businesses you do have are being treated with incredible hostility.
@Alanbrooke RBS screwed up the same way as the rest of the companies world wide, they got drunk on greed and power. It is the natural conclusion to the "free market", then we all start the merry go round once again.
That great UK bank run from London was leading the charge
LOL make your mind up, one minute they're a scottish bank bluffing about leaving and upsetting Salmond, the next they're an english bank.
Alan they are a global bank currently contracting back to a UK bank , they have not been Scottish for many many years and they are not an English bank either.
In which the UK govt is an 81% shareholder and where Scotland's balance sheet is smaller than theirs, so they'll go. Why Salmond's pretending otherwise is plain pathetic.
And the other big banks and pension cos will go too.
Alan, heard it all before, it will be a paper move, RBS are already in London , they will keep their Scottish function as it is significantly cheaper than having it in London, the top brass will remain as ever in London and may give up their annual visit to Edinburgh at best.
Nonsense there are 100,000 finance sector jobs in Scotland and you'll lose about half of them.
Nats wittering on about brass plates ignore the people, for example, who administer my pensions or the 1000 or so who work in RBS HQ. But it's always easy to wipe out someone else's job when you don't have to worry about your own.
Morning, Mr. Brooke, could it not be a good idea for thr rUK government to make a present of its shares in RBS to iScotland's government. A nice big fat asset for the Scots to own all the jobs stay in Scotland as do all the liabilities. True having a bank with a balance sheet larger than one's GDP without your own currency or central bank may not be a great idea but then nor are lot of other things being talked about.
those whom the gods wish to destroy first they make mad.
I'm generally pro 'Yes' but some of the comments coming from business and politicians are so overdone now as to look ridiculous, and I think they risk undermining No e.g. suggesting that Scotland might be heading for a Great Depression.
It's beginning to remind me of the Y2K farce.
Y2K wasn't a farce.
Oh David, I normally have such respect for your views. People flap about change and fear of the unknown, Y2K being a classic example. Yes work was done to prevent it, but that doesn't obviate the fact that the whole thing was a mass panic: planes falling from the sky, electrical appliances failing; the entire western economy collapsing. Ooooh look they're flapping again: this time about Scotland being independent.
Scotland would be fine on its own. Not necessarily economically 'better,' but it will get over the teething problems and turn out just fine.
SO, if indeed it is all lies and false claims , how bad is the situation in Scotland due to Westminster misrule that people will believe the lies and the false claims and vote YES. Not everybody is stupid so one can only conclude that they have seen the future under Westminster , do not like what they see and will take any chance to get out of it. people are not choosing it for a flag or any such rubbish , they want a fairer country where the rich do not make all the decisions and take all the money. Optimism and hope are replacing doom and gloom. It is a natural reaction.
People in Scotland feel exactly the same bout Westminster as people across the rest of the UK. As I said, the Westminster elite have created the conditions in which the SNP can thrive. But that does not excuse the SNP's countless lies and their willingness to take Scots into penury in order to create an international frontier. They know that they will be found out ad hey know that it does not matter. The only important thing is that Yes. The disillusion and disappointment coming to Scotland after the initial euphoria of the Yes will be crushing. At least no-one can say they have not been warned.
I know it's sometimes difficult to remember on PB, but you don't get bonus points for the number of times you repeat something.
I understand that it is difficult to argue with reality, but you might want to try. For you that frontier is probably something worth any economic price, but once you get your Yes you are going to have to deal with a lot of Scots who will realise that they have been conned. It will not be pleasant.
SO, if indeed it is all lies and false claims , how bad is the situation in Scotland due to Westminster misrule that people will believe the lies and the false claims and vote YES. Not everybody is stupid so one can only conclude that they have seen the future under Westminster , do not like what they see and will take any chance to get out of it. people are not choosing it for a flag or any such rubbish , they want a fairer country where the rich do not make all the decisions and take all the money. Optimism and hope are replacing doom and gloom. It is a natural reaction.
People in Scotland feel exactly the same bout Westminster as people across the rest of the UK. As I said, the Westminster elite have created the conditions in which the SNP can thrive. But that does not excuse the SNP's countless lies and their willingness to take Scots into penury in order to create an international frontier. They know that they will be found out ad hey know that it does not matter. The only important thing is that Yes. The disillusion and disappointment coming to Scotland after the initial euphoria of the Yes will be crushing. At least no-one can say they have not been warned.
I know it's sometimes difficult to remember on PB, but you don't get bonus points for the number of times you repeat something.
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick 4m Grandmasters of the Orange Order gathered from all over the UK in Edinburgh this morning to defend the Union http://tinyurl.com/kbo798b
I imagine the English and Welsh contingents will be significantly smaller than the Scottish ones. Sectarian bigotry is not something we see much of down here.
I'm generally pro 'Yes' but some of the comments coming from business and politicians are so overdone now as to look ridiculous, and I think they risk undermining No e.g. suggesting that Scotland might be heading for a Great Depression.
It's beginning to remind me of the Y2K farce.
Y2K wasn't a farce.
Oh David, I normally have such respect for your views. People flap about change and fear of the unknown, Y2K being a classic example. Yes work was done to prevent it, but that doesn't obviate the fact that the whole thing was a mass panic: planes falling from the sky, electrical appliances failing; the entire western economy collapsing. Ooooh look they're flapping again: this time about Scotland being independent.
Scotland would be fine on its own. Not necessarily economically 'better,' but it will get over the teething problems and turn out just fine.
I agree, some pain and confusion initially then it will all settle down and they can live happily ever after.
SO, if indeed it is all lies and false claims , how bad is the situation in Scotland due to Westminster misrule that people will believe the lies and the false claims and vote YES. Not everybody is stupid so one can only conclude that they have seen the future under Westminster , do not like what they see and will take any chance to get out of it. people are not choosing it for a flag or any such rubbish , they want a fairer country where the rich do not make all the decisions and take all the money. Optimism and hope are replacing doom and gloom. It is a natural reaction.
People in Scotland feel exactly the same about Westminster as people across the rest of the UK. As I said, the Westminster elite have created the conditions in which the SNP can thrive. But that does not excuse the SNP's countless lies and their willingness to take Scots into penury in order to create an international frontier. They know that they will be found out and they know that it does not matter. The only important thing is that Yes. The disillusion and disappointment coming to Scotland after the initial euphoria of the independence vote will be crushing. At least no-one can say they have not been warned.
SO , I do not believe your extreme view is reality , there may be some optimistic threads to the campaign but it is far from how you describe it. Westminster are the bad guys here.
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick 4m Grandmasters of the Orange Order gathered from all over the UK in Edinburgh this morning to defend the Union http://tinyurl.com/kbo798b
I imagine the English and Welsh contingents will be significantly smaller than the Scottish ones. Sectarian bigotry is not something we see much of down here.
I cannot believe there's a Welsh Orange Order. Surely not. My flabber would be gasted .
I simply cannot believe that the UK parties won't split post independence. Easterross has already made this point. Why are Scottish Labour, Tories and Lib Dems going to commit suicide by attaching themselves to Westminster parties determined to get the best possible deal for rUK? It won't happen. Scotland has 59 MPs. The rest of the UK has 591. There's no reason why there cannot be a majority that doesn't involve Scottish MPs. It may mean a short term Labour/Tory coalition but if that is what is needed, so be it.
I was absolutely amazed to see Diane Abbott on This Week taking seriously the idea that we could delay the general election for a year. I almost wanted to throw something at the screen. You might expect it from a Tory MP but a Labour one? Left wing voters in England and Wales want this government gone as soon as they can vote on it. If Labour collude in delaying the election, those voters will go beserk. It's ludicrous. If I'm remembering correctly I think she also said that it wouldn't necessarily be a good time to come into government. So let's keep the coalition in power for another year and let them deal with the fallout of the disunion. When the going gets tough the Labour party goes missing - or so the voters will see it. Hopefully wiser heads will prevail in the party.
I mostly agree with the way David Herdson talks through what has to happen but what happens when we put some numbers to it? 1) Independence: Generously, 1 in 4. 2) Lab lead thereafter: 1 in 2 3) But only a teensy little one: 1 in 4 4) Compressed Con vote from strong UKIP performance in safe seats, but Con not resulting in Con losing enough marginal seats to break (3): Exceedingly generously 1 in 4 => 4 * 2 * 4 * 4 = 1 in 128
Admittedly there are some other ways to get to the same place, but it's not obvious they make up the gap.
I think you're being a little unfair: aren't (2) and (3) really the same point - or at least it should be at the 1 in 4 odds not at 1 in 8 [i.e 2 *4] that you are suggesting.
This would put your implied odds at 1 in 64 - pretty much where the bookies are.
Fair enough, putting the two together is clearer. On reflection it's more likely than 1 in 8 but less than 1 in 4. The referendum potentially shakes things up a bit in unpredictable ways (as does UKIP/Clacton), so the outer ranges get a bit more likely than they are now. Maybe make 6 bands like of approximately equal probability like this and call it 1 in 6: Lab 5%+ Lab 2%-5% Lab 0%-2% Con 0%-2% Con 2%-5% Con 5%+
Against that, I was very generous about (4), which should probably also be more like 1 in 6, so we're back where we were.
PS. The above are numbers pulled out of my arse, not offers to bet.
I'm generally pro 'Yes' but some of the comments coming from business and politicians are so overdone now as to look ridiculous, and I think they risk undermining No e.g. suggesting that Scotland might be heading for a Great Depression.
It's beginning to remind me of the Y2K farce.
Y2K wasn't a farce.
Oh David, I normally have such respect for your views. People flap about change and fear of the unknown, Y2K being a classic example. Yes work was done to prevent it, but that doesn't obviate the fact that the whole thing was a mass panic: planes falling from the sky, electrical appliances failing; the entire western economy collapsing. Ooooh look they're flapping again: this time about Scotland being independent.
Scotland would be fine on its own. Not necessarily economically 'better,' but it will get over the teething problems and turn out just fine.
Well said Audrey, a shining beacon in the wilderness. On here they prefer doom and gloom for us and believe they will have nirvana when they stop paying for us.
A very good post, Mr. O. Whilst I agree with your substantive points where I must part company with you is over the passion for the Union. I will be marginally sad to see it go but no more than that and I suspect a large proportion of the English, perhaps even the majority, feel much the same.
For whatever reasons, and they really don't matter, the two countries have grown apart and are largely looking for different solutions. These things happen and, as with a marriage, sometimes its best to let it go as continuing to try and force compromises on both sides is more cruel than going through the pain of the split. The Better Together campaign is often criticised, not least on here, for not presenting a positive case for the Union. Well, perhaps they haven't done that because in reality there is no such case to be made.
So I hope for a Yes vote on Thursday and I will wish the Scots well and expect my government to get the best possible deal for rUK in the subsequent negotiations.
My country is being taken away from me on the back of Westminster complacency and SNP lies. It does make me angry. But maybe others are more sanguine. We shall see. In terms of negotiation, the rUK has every single card in its hands.
@Alanbrooke RBS screwed up the same way as the rest of the companies world wide, they got drunk on greed and power. It is the natural conclusion to the "free market", then we all start the merry go round once again.
That great UK bank run from London was leading the charge
LOL make your mind up, one minute they're a scottish bank bluffing about leaving and upsetting Salmond, the next they're an english bank.
Alan they are a global bank currently contracting back to a UK bank , they have not been Scottish for many many years and they are not an English bank either.
In which the UK govt is an 81% shareholder and where Scotland's balance sheet is smaller than theirs, so they'll go. Why Salmond's pretending otherwise is plain pathetic.
And the other big banks and pension cos will go too.
Alan, heard it all before, it will be a paper move, RBS are already in London , they will keep their Scottish function as it is significantly cheaper than having it in London, the top brass will remain as ever in London and may give up their annual visit to Edinburgh at best.
Nonsense there are 100,000 finance sector jobs in Scotland and you'll lose about half of them.
Nats wittering on about brass plates ignore the people, for example, who administer my pensions or the 1000 or so who work in RBS HQ. But it's always easy to wipe out someone else's job when you don't have to worry about your own.
Morning, Mr. Brooke, could it not be a good idea for thr rUK government to make a present of its shares in RBS to iScotland's government. A nice big fat asset for the Scots to own all the jobs stay in Scotland as do all the liabilities. True having a bank with a balance sheet larger than one's GDP without your own currency or central bank may not be a great idea but then nor are lot of other things being talked about.
those whom the gods wish to destroy first they make mad.
Yeah something like that but I suspect the temporary Trident answer before building a new base in Falmouth or wherever will be to sail the boats pronto to Georgia where Uncle Sam will be pleased to loan out a couple of piers for ten years or so
If it were just a case of providing somewhere to tie up while the crews change and more food is taken on that would be a nice solution. It might, yet, turn out to be the best one but there would have to be a lot of money spent to recreate the necessary maintenance infrastructure, weapon handling facilities, accommodation etc..
Of course you can keep the pound, but in order to hang on to enough pounds you will need to generate a large of amount services and products people need and want.
Scotland doesn't. Oil will help, but as Venezuela shows, it is not enough of itself. You will need large and prosperous businesses and an entrepreneurial culture.
You don't have either. The businesses you do have are being treated with incredible hostility.
your limited knowledge of business in Scotland is breathtaking , your misguided lies re hostility are pathetic. We will do OK , you worry about whether sheep and leeks will keep you gainfully employed.
SO, if indeed it is all lies and false claims , how bad is the situation in Scotland due to Westminster misrule that people will believe the lies and the false claims and vote YES. Not everybody is stupid so one can only conclude that they have seen the future under Westminster , do not like what they see and will take any chance to get out of it. people are not choosing it for a flag or any such rubbish , they want a fairer country where the rich do not make all the decisions and take all the money. Optimism and hope are replacing doom and gloom. It is a natural reaction.
People in Scotland feel exactly the same bout Westminster as people across the rest of the UK. As I said, the Westminster elite have created the conditions in which the SNP can thrive. But that does not excuse the SNP's countless lies and their willingness to take Scots into penury in order to create an international frontier. They know that they will be found out ad hey know that it does not matter. The only important thing is that Yes. The disillusion and disappointment coming to Scotland after the initial euphoria of the Yes will be crushing. At least no-one can say they have not been warned.
I know it's sometimes difficult to remember on PB, but you don't get bonus points for the number of times you repeat something.
I understand that it is difficult to argue with reality, but you might want to try. For you that frontier is probably something worth any economic price, but once you get your Yes you are going to have to deal with a lot of Scots who will realise that they have been conned. It will not be pleasant.
The man who says there 'will' be a currency union despite all the Westminster statements to the contrary chooses to concentrate on 'SNP's countless lies'. I know you need to come here for differentiation so you can connect to some half-remembered progressiveness, but you've gone native.
SO, if indeed it is all lies and false claims , how bad is the situation in Scotland due to Westminster misrule that people will believe the lies and the false claims and vote YES. Not everybody is stupid so one can only conclude that they have seen the future under Westminster , do not like what they see and will take any chance to get out of it. people are not choosing it for a flag or any such rubbish , they want a fairer country where the rich do not make all the decisions and take all the money. Optimism and hope are replacing doom and gloom. It is a natural reaction.
People in Scotland feel exactly the same about Westminster as people across the rest of the UK. As I said, the Westminster elite have created the conditions in which the SNP can thrive. But that does not excuse the SNP's countless lies and their willingness to take Scots into penury in order to create an international frontier. They know that they will be found out and they know that it does not matter. The only important thing is that Yes. The disillusion and disappointment coming to Scotland after the initial euphoria of the independence vote will be crushing. At least no-one can say they have not been warned.
SO , I do not believe your extreme view is reality , there may be some optimistic threads to the campaign but it is far from how you describe it. Westminster are the bad guys here.
As a genuine, committed naitonalist, I understand why you do not want to believe it, but I am afraid it is true. The SNP are lying about iScotland's economic prospects, its finances, membership of the EU, oil, and so on. And you do not have long to find this out. Westminster is complicit in what is happening, for sure. But in the end it is the SNP selling a false prospectus in the knowledge that once the Yes is secured it cannot be undone whatever happens.
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick 4m Grandmasters of the Orange Order gathered from all over the UK in Edinburgh this morning to defend the Union http://tinyurl.com/kbo798b
I imagine the English and Welsh contingents will be significantly smaller than the Scottish ones. Sectarian bigotry is not something we see much of down here.
Well we do but English people don't push back against it.
I simply cannot believe that the UK parties won't split post independence. Easterross has already made this point. Why are Scottish Labour, Tories and Lib Dems going to commit suicide by attaching themselves to Westminster parties determined to get the best possible deal for rUK? It won't happen. Scotland has 59 MPs. The rest of the UK has 591. There's no reason why there cannot be a majority that doesn't involve Scottish MPs. It may mean a short term Labour/Tory coalition but if that is what is needed, so be it.
I was absolutely amazed to see Diane Abbott on This Week taking seriously the idea that we could delay the general election for a year. I almost wanted to throw something at the screen. You might expect it from a Tory MP but a Labour one? Left wing voters in England and Wales want this government gone as soon as they can vote on it. If Labour collude in delaying the election, those voters will go beserk. It's ludicrous. If I'm remembering correctly I think she also said that it wouldn't necessarily be a good time to come into government. So let's keep the coalition in power for another year and let them deal with the fallout of the disunion. When the going gets tough the Labour party goes missing - or so the voters will see it. Hopefully wiser heads will prevail in the party.
The Labour party is an utter disgrace. The one good thing about the break-up of the UK is that it will be thrown into an existential crisis out of which something worth voting for might eventually emerge.
You are right about the Scottish parties. There is no doubt they will set themselves up as entirely separate entities as soon as Yes wins. My guess is that actually Scottish Labour will win the first iScot GE because by then the SNP's lies will be completely apparent.
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick 4m Grandmasters of the Orange Order gathered from all over the UK in Edinburgh this morning to defend the Union http://tinyurl.com/kbo798b
I imagine the English and Welsh contingents will be significantly smaller than the Scottish ones. Sectarian bigotry is not something we see much of down here.
I cannot believe there's a Welsh Orange Order. Surely not. My flabber would be gasted .
well you could always join the ones in Ghana or Togo.
A very good post, Mr. O. Whilst I agree with your substantive points where I must part company with you is over the passion for the Union. I will be marginally sad to see it go but no more than that and I suspect a large proportion of the English, perhaps even the majority, feel much the same.
For whatever reasons, and they really don't matter, the two countries have grown apart and are largely looking for different solutions. These things happen and, as with a marriage, sometimes its best to let it go as continuing to try and force compromises on both sides is more cruel than going through the pain of the split. The Better Together campaign is often criticised, not least on here, for not presenting a positive case for the Union. Well, perhaps they haven't done that because in reality there is no such case to be made.
So I hope for a Yes vote on Thursday and I will wish the Scots well and expect my government to get the best possible deal for rUK in the subsequent negotiations.
My country is being taken away from me on the back of Westminster complacency and SNP lies. It does make me angry. But maybe others are more sanguine. We shall see. In terms of negotiation, the rUK has every single card in its hands.
Well the UK certainly isn't my country. England is my country. The UK is the state comprising two separate countries.
The country I live in will remain England. The country I do much of my work in will remain Scotland. Both are great places now and will remain great places if Scotland wins Independence.
I see nothing to be upset about about the prospect of a friendly neighbour to the North as opposed to a sullen and truculent family member.
SO, if indeed it is all lies and false claims , how bad is the situation in Scotland due to Westminster misrule that people will believe the lies and the false claims and vote YES. Not everybody is stupid so one can only conclude that they have seen the future under Westminster , do not like what they see and will take any chance to get out of it. people are not choosing it for a flag or any such rubbish , they want a fairer country where the rich do not make all the decisions and take all the money. Optimism and hope are replacing doom and gloom. It is a natural reaction.
People in Scotland feel exactly the same bout Westminster as people across the rest of the UK. As I said, the Westminster elite have created the conditions in which the SNP can thrive. But that does not excuse the SNP's countless lies and their willingness to take Scots into penury in order to create an international frontier. They know that they will be found out ad hey know that it does not matter. The only important thing is that Yes. The disillusion and disappointment coming to Scotland after the initial euphoria of the Yes will be crushing. At least no-one can say they have not been warned.
I know it's sometimes difficult to remember on PB, but you don't get bonus points for the number of times you repeat something.
I understand that it is difficult to argue with reality, but you might want to try. For you that frontier is probably something worth any economic price, but once you get your Yes you are going to have to deal with a lot of Scots who will realise that they have been conned. It will not be pleasant.
The man who says there 'will' be a currency union despite all the Westminster statements to the contrary chooses to concentrate on 'SNP's countless lies'. I know you need to come here for differentiation so you can connect to some half-remembered progressiveness, but you've gone native.
There is nothing progressive about lying to people in order to create an international frontier. And the SNP is lying about a CU if it does not acknowledge that if there is one it will be constructed entirely on the rUK's terms.
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick 4m Grandmasters of the Orange Order gathered from all over the UK in Edinburgh this morning to defend the Union http://tinyurl.com/kbo798b
I imagine the English and Welsh contingents will be significantly smaller than the Scottish ones. Sectarian bigotry is not something we see much of down here.
Yet they have an Orange Lodge in the Westminster Parliament.
I'm generally pro 'Yes' but some of the comments coming from business and politicians are so overdone now as to look ridiculous, and I think they risk undermining No e.g. suggesting that Scotland might be heading for a Great Depression.
It's beginning to remind me of the Y2K farce.
Y2K wasn't a farce.
Oh David, I normally have such respect for your views. People flap about change and fear of the unknown, Y2K being a classic example. Yes work was done to prevent it, but that doesn't obviate the fact that the whole thing was a mass panic: planes falling from the sky, electrical appliances failing; the entire western economy collapsing. Ooooh look they're flapping again: this time about Scotland being independent.
Scotland would be fine on its own. Not necessarily economically 'better,' but it will get over the teething problems and turn out just fine.
Sure, an independent Scotland could do fine by itself. Ultimately, success rests on the decisions and actions of a people and its leaders, collectively and individually; not on where it's governed from (unless that government is excessively stifling). That said, a badly managed transition could set it back ten years or more.
However, re Y2K, I was on that project for the company I still work for and can assure you that it wasn't a mass panic based on nothing in particular. Had that work not been done, financial institutions could have failed (which could have led to "the entire western economy collapsing"). It didn't, because it was a relatively simple issue to deal with, if a deeply and repeatedly embedded one, and the work was completed and tested successfully. The hysteria - to the extent that it existed - was a consequence of the media playing up the risk without counterbalancing it with the remedy.
A very good post, Mr. O. Whilst I agree with your substantive points where I must part company with you is over the passion for the Union. I will be marginally sad to see it go but no more than that and I suspect a large proportion of the English, perhaps even the majority, feel much the same.
For whatever reasons, and they really don't matter, the two countries have grown apart and are largely looking for different solutions. These things happen and, as with a marriage, sometimes its best to let it go as continuing to try and force compromises on both sides is more cruel than going through the pain of the split. The Better Together campaign is often criticised, not least on here, for not presenting a positive case for the Union. Well, perhaps they haven't done that because in reality there is no such case to be made.
So I hope for a Yes vote on Thursday and I will wish the Scots well and expect my government to get the best possible deal for rUK in the subsequent negotiations.
My country is being taken away from me on the back of Westminster complacency and SNP lies. It does make me angry. But maybe others are more sanguine. We shall see. In terms of negotiation, the rUK has every single card in its hands.
Well the UK certainly isn't my country. England is my country. The UK is the state comprising two separate countries.
The country I live in will remain England. The country I do much of my work in will remain Scotland. Both are great places now and will remain great places if Scotland wins Independence.
I see nothing to be upset about about the prospect of a friendly neighbour to the North as opposed to a sullen and truculent family member.
Richard , nice to see a sensible intelligent viewpoint on the whole topic. Not many on here can seem to grasp that view and conflate English, British , UK etc is some crazy way. Only politics will change.
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick 4m Grandmasters of the Orange Order gathered from all over the UK in Edinburgh this morning to defend the Union http://tinyurl.com/kbo798b
I imagine the English and Welsh contingents will be significantly smaller than the Scottish ones. Sectarian bigotry is not something we see much of down here.
Yet they have an Orange Lodge in the Westminster Parliament.
SO, if indeed it is all lies and false claims , how bad is the situation in Scotland due to Westminster misrule that people will believe the lies and the false claims and vote YES. Not everybody is stupid so one can only conclude that they have seen the future under Westminster , do not like what they see and will take any chance to get out of it. people are not choosing it for a flag or any such rubbish , they want a fairer country where the rich do not make all the decisions and take all the money. Optimism and hope are replacing doom and gloom. It is a natural reaction.
People in Scotland feel exactly the same bout Westminster as people across the rest of the UK. As I said, the Westminster elite have created the conditions in which the SNP can thrive. But that does not excuse the SNP's countless lies and their willingness to take Scots into penury in order to create an international frontier. They know that they will be found out ad hey know that it does not matter. The only important thing is that Yes. The disillusion and disappointment coming to Scotland after the initial euphoria of the Yes will be crushing. At least no-one can say they have not been warned.
I know it's sometimes difficult to remember on PB, but you don't get bonus points for the number of times you repeat something.
I understand that it is difficult to argue with reality, but you might want to try. For you that frontier is probably something worth any economic price, but once you get your Yes you are going to have to deal with a lot of Scots who will realise that they have been conned. It will not be pleasant.
The man who says there 'will' be a currency union despite all the Westminster statements to the contrary chooses to concentrate on 'SNP's countless lies'. I know you need to come here for differentiation so you can connect to some half-remembered progressiveness, but you've gone native.
There is nothing progressive about lying to people in order to create an international frontier. And the SNP is lying about a CU if it does not acknowledge that if there is one it will be constructed entirely on the rUK's terms.
Bad SNP lies, good Westminster lies, vote Yes and you will be punished.
Let me change that to barely remembered progressiveness.
Reeks of Labour determined to keep its electoral advantage in the event of a no vote. Whenever an English parliament or EVEL is mentioned they start wittering about devolution to the big cities (i.e. places which vote labour).
A very good post, Mr. O. Whilst I agree with your substantive points where I must part company with you is over the passion for the Union. I will be marginally sad to see it go but no more than that and I suspect a large proportion of the English, perhaps even the majority, feel much the same.
For whatever reasons, and they really don't matter, the two countries have grown apart and are largely looking for different solutions. These things happen and, as with a marriage, sometimes its best to let it go as continuing to try and force compromises on both sides is more cruel than going through the pain of the split. The Better Together campaign is often criticised, not least on here, for not presenting a positive case for the Union. Well, perhaps they haven't done that because in reality there is no such case to be made.
So I hope for a Yes vote on Thursday and I will wish the Scots well and expect my government to get the best possible deal for rUK in the subsequent negotiations.
My country is being taken away from me on the back of Westminster complacency and SNP lies. It does make me angry. But maybe others are more sanguine. We shall see. In terms of negotiation, the rUK has every single card in its hands.
Well the UK certainly isn't my country. England is my country. The UK is the state comprising two separate countries.
The country I live in will remain England. The country I do much of my work in will remain Scotland. Both are great places now and will remain great places if Scotland wins Independence.
I see nothing to be upset about about the prospect of a friendly neighbour to the North as opposed to a sullen and truculent family member.
We differ. I am English and British. I am about to have one of my identities taken away. That matters to me. We'll have to see how friendly things are. I cannot believe that the SNP will not be blaming Westminster and the rUK generally when their lies are exposed.
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick 4m Grandmasters of the Orange Order gathered from all over the UK in Edinburgh this morning to defend the Union http://tinyurl.com/kbo798b
I imagine the English and Welsh contingents will be significantly smaller than the Scottish ones. Sectarian bigotry is not something we see much of down here.
Yet they have an Orange Lodge in the Westminster Parliament.
I'm sure given time Holyrood will have one too.
Well if Labour got back in you could be right , but I think not. Not many friends around for them nowadays, they are heading for extinction, mostly sad old gits left nowadays.
I don't recall reading anything much about 'Orange walks' in England and I've certainly never seen one - Wiki has a long write up for Ireland, Scotland and Canada etc, but only has this to say: - "Orange Walks also exist in England, particularly in Liverpool." er that's it.
Apparently there was one in London in 2007, but can anyone remember any other 'walks' taking place around the country?
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick 4m Grandmasters of the Orange Order gathered from all over the UK in Edinburgh this morning to defend the Union http://tinyurl.com/kbo798b
I imagine the English and Welsh contingents will be significantly smaller than the Scottish ones. Sectarian bigotry is not something we see much of down here.
Yet they have an Orange Lodge in the Westminster Parliament.
I'm sure given time Holyrood will have one too.
Well if Labour got back in you could be right , but I think not. Not many friends around for them nowadays, they are heading for extinction, mostly sad old gits left nowadays.
A very good post, Mr. O. Whilst I agree with your substantive points where I must part company with you is over the passion for the Union. I will be marginally sad to see it go but no more than that and I suspect a large proportion of the English, perhaps even the majority, feel much the same.
For whatever reasons, and they really don't matter, the two countries have grown apart and are largely looking for different solutions. These things happen and, as with a marriage, sometimes its best to let it go as continuing to try and force compromises on both sides is more cruel than going through the pain of the split. The Better Together campaign is often criticised, not least on here, for not presenting a positive case for the Union. Well, perhaps they haven't done that because in reality there is no such case to be made.
So I hope for a Yes vote on Thursday and I will wish the Scots well and expect my government to get the best possible deal for rUK in the subsequent negotiations.
My country is being taken away from me on the back of Westminster complacency and SNP lies. It does make me angry. But maybe others are more sanguine. We shall see. In terms of negotiation, the rUK has every single card in its hands.
Well the UK certainly isn't my country. England is my country. The UK is the state comprising two separate countries.
The country I live in will remain England. The country I do much of my work in will remain Scotland. Both are great places now and will remain great places if Scotland wins Independence.
I see nothing to be upset about about the prospect of a friendly neighbour to the North as opposed to a sullen and truculent family member.
We differ. I am English and British. I am about to have one of my identities taken away. That matters to me. We'll have to see how friendly things are. I cannot believe that the SNP will not be blaming Westminster and the rUK generally when their lies are exposed.
SO , Britain is going nowhere , only the UK blows up. You will still be English and British.
We all know why the bookies have daft adds, they are trying to balance the books, so they don't lose a fortune on the wrong result.
But Betfair remains stridently convinced it will be NO.
That means there's either a lot of rich, stupid bettors, or a lot of rich, clever bettors who believe (rightly or wrongly) they have superior information to the rest of us.
The (post-tightening) September polls average to a 3% lead. That plus a bit of belief in the "undecideds pick the status quo" theory gets you where Betfair are.
A very good post, Mr. O. Whilst I agree with your substantive points where I must part company with you is over the passion for the Union. I will be marginally sad to see it go but no more than that and I suspect a large proportion of the English, perhaps even the majority, feel much the same.
For whatever reasons, and they really don't matter, the two countries have grown apart and are largely looking for different solutions. These things happen and, as with a marriage, sometimes its best to let it go as continuing to try and force compromises on both sides is more cruel than going through the pain of the split. The Better Together campaign is often criticised, not least on here, for not presenting a positive case for the Union. Well, perhaps they haven't done that because in reality there is no such case to be made.
So I hope for a Yes vote on Thursday and I will wish the Scots well and expect my government to get the best possible deal for rUK in the subsequent negotiations.
My country is being taken away from me on the back of Westminster complacency and SNP lies. It does make me angry. But maybe others are more sanguine. We shall see. In terms of negotiation, the rUK has every single card in its hands.
Well the UK certainly isn't my country. England is my country. The UK is the state comprising two separate countries.
The country I live in will remain England. The country I do much of my work in will remain Scotland. Both are great places now and will remain great places if Scotland wins Independence.
I see nothing to be upset about about the prospect of a friendly neighbour to the North as opposed to a sullen and truculent family member.
We differ. I am English and British. I am about to have one of my identities taken away. That matters to me. We'll have to see how friendly things are. I cannot believe that the SNP will not be blaming Westminster and the rUK generally when their lies are exposed.
SO , Britain is going nowhere , only the UK blows up. You will still be English and British.
Nope, I'll be an Englishman who lives on the island of Britain.
Startling to see again the level of demonisation of Prootestant and Unionist organisations in Scotland. You would think it was that faith that was riddled with peedos to the very highest positions.....
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick 4m Grandmasters of the Orange Order gathered from all over the UK in Edinburgh this morning to defend the Union http://tinyurl.com/kbo798b
I imagine the English and Welsh contingents will be significantly smaller than the Scottish ones. Sectarian bigotry is not something we see much of down here.
Yet they have an Orange Lodge in the Westminster Parliament.
I'm sure given time Holyrood will have one too.
Well if Labour got back in you could be right , but I think not. Not many friends around for them nowadays, they are heading for extinction, mostly sad old gits left nowadays.
I'm surprised you haven't joined :-)
I grew out of that by secondary school, and even married a good Catholic girl (lapsed ). Though that did cause a few ripples all those years ago.
A very good post, Mr. O. Whilst I agree with your substantive points where I must part company with you is over the passion for the Union. I will be marginally sad to see it go but no more than that and I suspect a large proportion of the English, perhaps even the majority, feel much the same.
For whatever reasons, and they really don't matter, the two countries have grown apart and are largely looking for different solutions. These things happen and, as with a marriage, sometimes its best to let it go as continuing to try and force compromises on both sides is more cruel than going through the pain of the split. The Better Together campaign is often criticised, not least on here, for not presenting a positive case for the Union. Well, perhaps they haven't done that because in reality there is no such case to be made.
So I hope for a Yes vote on Thursday and I will wish the Scots well and expect my government to get the best possible deal for rUK in the subsequent negotiations.
My country is being taken away from me on the back of Westminster complacency and SNP lies. It does make me angry. But maybe others are more sanguine. We shall see. In terms of negotiation, the rUK has every single card in its hands.
Well the UK certainly isn't my country. England is my country. The UK is the state comprising two separate countries.
The country I live in will remain England. The country I do much of my work in will remain Scotland. Both are great places now and will remain great places if Scotland wins Independence.
I see nothing to be upset about about the prospect of a friendly neighbour to the North as opposed to a sullen and truculent family member.
We differ. I am English and British. I am about to have one of my identities taken away. That matters to me. We'll have to see how friendly things are. I cannot believe that the SNP will not be blaming Westminster and the rUK generally when their lies are exposed.
Of course we English will get the blame for everything that is wrong in Scotland but that won't actually be a change, will it? What will, hopefully, change is that English politicians will feel under no obligation to do something about the complaints.
Startling to see again the level of demonisation of Prootestant and Unionist organisations in Scotland. You would think it was that faith that was riddled with peedos to the very highest positions.....
Flash are you posting on your phone from Edinburgh, look out for Hamiltonace
We all know why the bookies have daft adds, they are trying to balance the books, so they don't lose a fortune on the wrong result.
But Betfair remains stridently convinced it will be NO.
That means there's either a lot of rich, stupid bettors, or a lot of rich, clever bettors who believe (rightly or wrongly) they have superior information to the rest of us.
If previous money is driving the price on offer at the bookmakers (as they try to encourage "yes" betting to balance their books) then this will reflect itself in the prices on betfair, otherwise arbitrage will be created.
I don't recall reading anything much about 'Orange walks' in England and I've certainly never seen one - Wiki has a long write up for Ireland, Scotland and Canada etc, but only has this to say: - "Orange Walks also exist in England, particularly in Liverpool." er that's it.
Apparently there was one in London in 2007, but can anyone remember any other 'walks' taking place around the country?
[I should add, by 'country' I mean England]
Portsmouth and Corby have quite substantial parades.
Good try David but I don't think it works: On an ACCA basis, off the top of my head, I rate your three pre-conditions as follows:
Yes referendum vote ............................... 4/1 Narrow Labour win in popular vote ......... 2/1 Differential Impact re: polling shifts ........ 5/1
A treble based on the above produces combined winning odds of 89/1, some way longer than the bookie's offering of 66/1. The great unknown here in terms of assessing the likely odds is the third element, where I have had a guess at 5/1. I don't think most would argue greatly with the odds I have attributed to the other two elements. For the 66/1 price to be justified on this basis, the odds against the third part of the accumulator would need to reduce from 5/1 to 7/2, considerably too short in my opinion. Conversely if one were to lengthen the odds by the same one and a half points from 5/1 to 13/2, the combined odds stretch out to 111/1.
A very good post, Mr. O. Whilst I agree with your substantive points where I must part company with you is over the passion for the Union. I will be marginally sad to see it go but no more than that and I suspect a large proportion of the English, perhaps even the majority, feel much the same.
For whatever reasons, and they really don't matter, the two countries have grown apart and are largely looking for different solutions. These things happen and, as with a marriage, sometimes its best to let it go as continuing to try and force compromises on both sides is more cruel than going through the pain of the split. The Better Together campaign is often criticised, not least on here, for not presenting a positive case for the Union. Well, perhaps they haven't done that because in reality there is no such case to be made.
So I hope for a Yes vote on Thursday and I will wish the Scots well and expect my government to get the best possible deal for rUK in the subsequent negotiations.
My country is being taken away from me on the back of Westminster complacency and SNP lies. It does make me angry. But maybe others are more sanguine. We shall see. In terms of negotiation, the rUK has every single card in its hands.
Well the UK certainly isn't my country. England is my country. The UK is the state comprising two separate countries.
The country I live in will remain England. The country I do much of my work in will remain Scotland. Both are great places now and will remain great places if Scotland wins Independence.
I see nothing to be upset about about the prospect of a friendly neighbour to the North as opposed to a sullen and truculent family member.
We differ. I am English and British. I am about to have one of my identities taken away. That matters to me. We'll have to see how friendly things are. I cannot believe that the SNP will not be blaming Westminster and the rUK generally when their lies are exposed.
Of course we English will get the blame for everything that is wrong in Scotland but that won't actually be a change, will it? What will, hopefully, change is that English politicians will feel under no obligation to do something about the complaints.
Whinge whinge whinge , the English disease, always imagining you are victims.
A very good post, Mr. O. Whilst I agree with your substantive points where I must part company with you is over the passion for the Union. I will be marginally sad to see it go but no more than that and I suspect a large proportion of the English, perhaps even the majority, feel much the same.
For whatever reasons, and they really don't matter, the two countries have grown apart and are largely looking for different solutions. These things happen and, as with a marriage, sometimes its best to let it go as continuing to try and force compromises on both sides is more cruel than going through the pain of the split. The Better Together campaign is often criticised, not least on here, for not presenting a positive case for the Union. Well, perhaps they haven't done that because in reality there is no such case to be made.
So I hope for a Yes vote on Thursday and I will wish the Scots well and expect my government to get the best possible deal for rUK in the subsequent negotiations.
My country is being taken away from me on the back of Westminster complacency and SNP lies. It does make me angry. But maybe others are more sanguine. We shall see. In terms of negotiation, the rUK has every single card in its hands.
Well the UK certainly isn't my country. England is my country. The UK is the state comprising two separate countries.
The country I live in will remain England. The country I do much of my work in will remain Scotland. Both are great places now and will remain great places if Scotland wins Independence.
I see nothing to be upset about about the prospect of a friendly neighbour to the North as opposed to a sullen and truculent family member.
We differ. I am English and British. I am about to have one of my identities taken away. That matters to me. We'll have to see how friendly things are. I cannot believe that the SNP will not be blaming Westminster and the rUK generally when their lies are exposed.
Of course we English will get the blame for everything that is wrong in Scotland but that won't actually be a change, will it? What will, hopefully, change is that English politicians will feel under no obligation to do something about the complaints.
flock of sheep and lambs Mr L
if you're going to keep getting the blame make sure it's for something worthwhile.
A very good post, Mr. O. Whilst I agree with your substantive points where I must part company with you is over the passion for the Union. I will be marginally sad to see it go but no more than that and I suspect a large proportion of the English, perhaps even the majority, feel much the same.
For whatever reasons, and they really don't matter, the two countries have grown apart and are largely looking for different solutions. These things happen and, as with a marriage, sometimes its best to let it go as continuing to try and force compromises on both sides is more cruel than going through the pain of the split. The Better Together campaign is often criticised, not least on here, for not presenting a positive case for the Union. Well, perhaps they haven't done that because in reality there is no such case to be made.
So I hope for a Yes vote on Thursday and I will wish the Scots well and expect my government to get the best possible deal for rUK in the subsequent negotiations.
My country is being taken away from me on the back of Westminster complacency and SNP lies. It does make me angry. But maybe others are more sanguine. We shall see. In terms of negotiation, the rUK has every single card in its hands.
Well the UK certainly isn't my country. England is my country. The UK is the state comprising two separate countries.
The country I live in will remain England. The country I do much of my work in will remain Scotland. Both are great places now and will remain great places if Scotland wins Independence.
I see nothing to be upset about about the prospect of a friendly neighbour to the North as opposed to a sullen and truculent family member.
We differ. I am English and British. I am about to have one of my identities taken away. That matters to me. We'll have to see how friendly things are. I cannot believe that the SNP will not be blaming Westminster and the rUK generally when their lies are exposed.
Of course we English will get the blame for everything that is wrong in Scotland but that won't actually be a change, will it? What will, hopefully, change is that English politicians will feel under no obligation to do something about the complaints.
At the moment I am English and British, but I have lived in Scotland since 1988. If there is a Yes vote, I will become an English Scot.
I'm generally pro 'Yes' but some of the comments coming from business and politicians are so overdone now as to look ridiculous, and I think they risk undermining No e.g. suggesting that Scotland might be heading for a Great Depression.
It's beginning to remind me of the Y2K farce.
Y2K wasn't a farce.
Oh David, I normally have such respect for your views. People flap about change and fear of the unknown, Y2K being a classic example. Yes work was done to prevent it, but that doesn't obviate the fact that the whole thing was a mass panic: planes falling from the sky, electrical appliances failing; the entire western economy collapsing. Ooooh look they're flapping again: this time about Scotland being independent.
Scotland would be fine on its own. Not necessarily economically 'better,' but it will get over the teething problems and turn out just fine.
Sure, an independent Scotland could do fine by itself. Ultimately, success rests on the decisions and actions of a people and its leaders, collectively and individually; not on where it's governed from (unless that government is excessively stifling). That said, a badly managed transition could set it back ten years or more.
However, re Y2K, I was on that project for the company I still work for and can assure you that it wasn't a mass panic based on nothing in particular. Had that work not been done, financial institutions could have failed (which could have led to "the entire western economy collapsing"). It didn't, because it was a relatively simple issue to deal with, if a deeply and repeatedly embedded one, and the work was completed and tested successfully. The hysteria - to the extent that it existed - was a consequence of the media playing up the risk without counterbalancing it with the remedy.
What do you mean 'on' that project? Are you a senior IT specialist? Loads of us were 'on' the issue David, including my father-in-law who was involved at a reasonable level, and it reeked of panic from the word go. Some systems needed an upgrade to ensure it didn't bug. Wow, big deal. There have been, and are, much greater threats.
This is one of the occasions when if they vote 'Yes' everyone will wake up the next morning and realise they are still alive.
Of course you can keep the pound, but in order to hang on to enough pounds you will need to generate a large of amount services and products people need and want.
Scotland doesn't. Oil will help, but as Venezuela shows, it is not enough of itself. You will need large and prosperous businesses and an entrepreneurial culture.
You don't have either. The businesses you do have are being treated with incredible hostility.
your limited knowledge of business in Scotland is breathtaking , your misguided lies re hostility are pathetic. We will do OK , you worry about whether sheep and leeks will keep you gainfully employed.
He's right. I run a business in Scotland. Like thousands of similar businesses our important customers are English. Customers may or may not be always right, but they always pay the wages. People like to do business with firms in their own country. Investors decide where to place their operations.They are the other important people. Investment had already dried up on Scotland in the past few months.
If we become foreign we leave behind a lot of prosperity and jobs and say "hello" to a lot of .poverty. I'm not making a political point. It's just how it is.
On another point, the Orangemen are assembling outside my house. Although they are not people I normally give much thought to, I think it's nice that someone is making an emotional case for the union. Of its yes we shouldn't go gentle into the night.
They have some cool plastic flags: union on one side; saltire on the other
SeanT - I will be British in the sense that I am European. It will be a far smaller part of me than it has been. English is what I will be - and proud of it.
I am afraid I agree with you about the institutional Left. I am sick of it. Triangulating, lazy, backward looking, complacent and remote. I cannot defend it. It needs to start again. I guess the break-up of the UK will be the opportunity.
Joking aside, I don't think a Yes vote would result in an apocalypse. I just think it would weaken both countries.
In the end it could strengthen both countries, at least economically, as they will be forced into more rightwing policies - cuts in spending, a smaller state - by skeptical markets. This process will, however, be painful for the first 5-10 years - especially in Scotland, where the prevailing desire is, apparently, for MORE state spending, and which has greater demographic problems, and more difficulty attracting immigrants, skilled or otherwise.
And of course Scotland will be outside the EU at first. I reckon the Spanish will keep them there for a long, long time, to frighten the Catalans.
Think of all the lovely seafood we will be eating though.
I don't recall reading anything much about 'Orange walks' in England and I've certainly never seen one - Wiki has a long write up for Ireland, Scotland and Canada etc, but only has this to say: - "Orange Walks also exist in England, particularly in Liverpool." er that's it.
Apparently there was one in London in 2007, but can anyone remember any other 'walks' taking place around the country?
[I should add, by 'country' I mean England]
Portsmouth and Corby have quite substantial parades.
Cheers Mr Fear - did a quick on-line search wrt Portsmouth 'O.Ws' and there appears to be zero media reporting of events by national press. - perhaps they are much smaller affairs than in other cities, or simply do not arouse such a large following/antipathy here in the south.
We all know why the bookies have daft adds, they are trying to balance the books, so they don't lose a fortune on the wrong result.
But Betfair remains stridently convinced it will be NO.
That means there's either a lot of rich, stupid bettors, or a lot of rich, clever bettors who believe (rightly or wrongly) they have superior information to the rest of us.
There's certainly a lot of bettors one way or another: the market's just topped £7.25m matched. I'd be surprised if it doesn't hit £10m by the declaration.
Of course you can keep the pound, but in order to hang on to enough pounds you will need to generate a large of amount services and products people need and want.
Scotland doesn't. Oil will help, but as Venezuela shows, it is not enough of itself. You will need large and prosperous businesses and an entrepreneurial culture.
You don't have either. The businesses you do have are being treated with incredible hostility.
your limited knowledge of business in Scotland is breathtaking , your misguided lies re hostility are pathetic. We will do OK , you worry about whether sheep and leeks will keep you gainfully employed.
He's right. I run a business in Scotland. Like thousands of similar businesses our important customers are English. Customers may or may not be always right, but they always pay the wages. People like to do business with firms in their own country. Investors decide where to place their operations.They are the other important people. Investment had already dried up on Scotland in the past few months.
If we become foreign we leave behind a lot of prosperity and jobs and say "hello" to a lot of .poverty. I'm not making a political point. It's just how it is.
On another point, the Orangemen are assembling outside my house. Although they are not people I normally give much thought to, I think it's nice that someone is making an emotional case for the union. Of its yes we shouldn't go gentle into the night.
They have some cool plastic flags: union on one side; saltire on the other
I still wonder how any country manages to export goods based on your theory. Other countries seem to be very prosperous all over the world and did not fall to pieces on independence. Why would Scotland be unique in the world. If the price is right people will buy from anywhere, hence we get so much tat imported from China. It is nothing to do with "foreign" as you put it , when I buy goods I look for quality and price , not where made, unless goods are in a similar price range or are better quality I would buy local, will pay a small premium for local if quality is similar.
I don't recall reading anything much about 'Orange walks' in England and I've certainly never seen one - Wiki has a long write up for Ireland, Scotland and Canada etc, but only has this to say: - "Orange Walks also exist in England, particularly in Liverpool." er that's it.
Apparently there was one in London in 2007, but can anyone remember any other 'walks' taking place around the country?
[I should add, by 'country' I mean England]
Portsmouth and Corby have quite substantial parades.
Cheers Mr Fear - did a quick on-line search wrt Portsmouth 'O.Ws' and there appears to be zero media reporting of events by national press. - perhaps they are much smaller affairs than in other cities, or simply do not arouse such a large following/antipathy here in the south.
In Glasgow/West Scotland they are as numerous as buses in the marching season , usually by now they are back in their caves for the winter. Costs millions to police and clear up the debris after their rampages.
Southam - I take your point about Labour. However I do wonder whether people like me will ever be satisfied politically. Ultimately governing requires some kind of coalition of views and that means compromise.
Let me go further. The Downton Abbey world collapsed in 1914 and working class democracy was born. This seemed to last for about 60 years before Mrs Thatcher came along. To my mind the most depressing lesson of that period was the idea that economic democracy had failed and that we needed to put those who owned the capital in full control (they being the wealth creators). A victory for the establishment. At the same time a bunch of 'enlightened' liberals who didn't much like Mrs Thatcher decided the Labour party had let them down and many working class voters couldn't be trusted. They took over the Labour party and used the British political system of FPTP to their advantage. All that would matter would be a few thousand voters in a handful of marginal constituencies. Turnout collapsed in core Labour areas, in some cases below 50% in general elections, but what did this matter? It didn't lose Labour a single MP. There was disenchantment but voters had nowhere to go under the current political system.
Such things are not really a problem in England or probably Wales but Scotland is different. In Scotland you have 25-30% of people who have always believed in independence. Many of them well off and secure. Combine that with another 25% who feel left behind, disillusioned with those in power and facing 6 years of falling living standards with no hope going forward and you get an explosive combination that can destroy the UK.
I'm generally pro 'Yes' but some of the comments coming from business and politicians are so overdone now as to look ridiculous, and I think they risk undermining No e.g. suggesting that Scotland might be heading for a Great Depression.
It's beginning to remind me of the Y2K farce.
Y2K wasn't a farce.
Oh David, I normally have such respect for your views. People flap about change and fear of the unknown, Y2K being a classic example. Yes work was done to prevent it, but that doesn't obviate the fact that the whole thing was a mass panic: planes falling from the sky, electrical appliances failing; the entire western economy collapsing. Ooooh look they're flapping again: this time about Scotland being independent.
Scotland would be fine on its own. Not necessarily economically 'better,' but it will get over the teething problems and turn out just fine.
Sure, an independent Scotland could do fine by itself. Ultimately, success rests on the decisions and actions of a people and its leaders, collectively and individually; not on where it's governed from (unless that government is excessively stifling). That said, a badly managed transition could set it back ten years or more.
However, re Y2K, I was on that project for the company I still work for and can assure you that it wasn't a mass panic based on nothing in particular. Had that work not been done, financial institutions could have failed (which could have led to "the entire western economy collapsing"). It didn't, because it was a relatively simple issue to deal with, if a deeply and repeatedly embedded one, and the work was completed and tested successfully. The hysteria - to the extent that it existed - was a consequence of the media playing up the risk without counterbalancing it with the remedy.
Some of the spreadsheets I still use at work are pre Y2K compliant.
Then again some of the machinery is pre computers.
I'm generally pro 'Yes' but some of the comments coming from business and politicians are so overdone now as to look ridiculous, and I think they risk undermining No e.g. suggesting that Scotland might be heading for a Great Depression.
It's beginning to remind me of the Y2K farce.
Y2K wasn't a farce.
Sure, an independent Scotland could do fine by itself. Ultimately, success rests on the decisions and actions of a people and its leaders, collectively and individually; not on where it's governed from (unless that government is excessively stifling). That said, a badly managed transition could set it back ten years or more.
However, re Y2K, I was on that project for the company I still work for and can assure you that it wasn't a mass panic based on nothing in particular. Had that work not been done, financial institutions could have failed (which could have led to "the entire western economy collapsing"). It didn't, because it was a relatively simple issue to deal with, if a deeply and repeatedly embedded one, and the work was completed and tested successfully. The hysteria - to the extent that it existed - was a consequence of the media playing up the risk without counterbalancing it with the remedy.
What do you mean 'on' that project? Are you a senior IT specialist? Loads of us were 'on' the issue David, including my father-in-law who was involved at a reasonable level, and it reeked of panic from the word go. Some systems needed an upgrade to ensure it didn't bug. Wow, big deal. There have been, and are, much greater threats.
This is one of the occasions when if they vote 'Yes' everyone will wake up the next morning and realise they are still alive.
I think David is right but the metaphor is perhaps a bit stretched. Y2k was a technical issue where the consequences were not all understood. Nothing might happen or something catastrophic might happen. Independence at the economic level is a market issue and if we are just a little bit more realistic than half of my country men and women seem to be, we would know there will be recession. How deep and long we don't know. But we do know that things will be worse, not better, at least for the foreseeable future.
David Herdson's analysis above is worth noting. The votes / seat for Labour would go up if there is a YES vote. In addition, with the Red Liberals remaining in the Labour camp even at levels lower than what current polls indicate, would, by itself, increase the Labour votes / seats ratio even though it would give Labour some extra seats. But the Labour vote would also go up in unwinnable seats.
Of course you can keep the pound, but in order to hang on to enough pounds you will need to generate a large of amount services and products people need and want.
Scotland doesn't. Oil will help, but as Venezuela shows, it is not enough of itself. You will need large and prosperous businesses and an entrepreneurial culture.
You don't have either. The businesses you do have are being treated with incredible hostility.
your limited knowledge of business in Scotland is breathtaking , your misguided lies re hostility are pathetic. We will do OK , you worry about whether sheep and leeks will keep you gainfully employed.
He's right. I run a business in Scotland. Like thousands of similar businesses our important customers are English. Customers may or may not be always right, but they always pay the wages. People like to do business with firms in their own country. Investors decide where to place their operations.They are the other important people. Investment had already dried up on Scotland in the past few months.
If we become foreign we leave behind a lot of prosperity and jobs and say "hello" to a lot of .poverty. I'm not making a political point. It's just how it is.
On another point, the Orangemen are assembling outside my house. Although they are not people I normally give much thought to, I think it's nice that someone is making an emotional case for the union. Of its yes we shouldn't go gentle into the night.
They have some cool plastic flags: union on one side; saltire on the other
I still wonder how any country manages to export goods based on your theory. Other countries seem to be very prosperous all over the world and did not fall to pieces on independence. Why would Scotland be unique in the world. If the price is right people will buy from anywhere, hence we get so much tat imported from China. It is nothing to do with "foreign" as you put it , when I buy goods I look for quality and price , not where made, unless goods are in a similar price range or are better quality I would buy local, will pay a small premium for local if quality is similar.
except Scotland doesn't trade much with the rest of the world, it does nearly all its trade with rUK.
SeanT - I will be British in the sense that I am European. It will be a far smaller part of me than it has been. English is what I will be - and proud of it.
I am afraid I agree with you about the institutional Left. I am sick of it. Triangulating, lazy, backward looking, complacent and remote. I cannot defend it. It needs to start again. I guess the break-up of the UK will be the opportunity.
One sad feature of the last 4 years has been the demonisation of the LDs on the left because they went into coalition. As a Conservative I feel they made many mistakes not least the desire to be both government and quasi-opposition at the same time but their punsihment has allowed Labour to adopt the 35% strategy leaving them beholden to the more left-wing elements in the TUs. Labour is currently not remotely centrist in tone and maybe not even in substance. Arguably the rise of UKIP may be doing as much damage to the Conservatives. Either way such polarisation is not pleasant to behold even if in my case it is from afar.
Of course you can keep the pound, but in order to hang on to enough pounds you will need to generate a large of amount services and products people need and want.
Scotland doesn't. Oil will help, but as Venezuela shows, it is not enough of itself. You will need large and prosperous businesses and an entrepreneurial culture.
You don't have either. The businesses you do have are being treated with incredible hostility.
your limited knowledge of business in Scotland is breathtaking , your misguided lies re hostility are pathetic. We will do OK , you worry about whether sheep and leeks will keep you gainfully employed.
He's right. I run a business in Scotland. Like thousands of similar businesses our important customers are English. Customers may or may not be always right, but they always pay the wages. People like to do business with firms in their own country. Investors decide where to place their operations.They are the other important people. Investment had already dried up on Scotland in the past few months.
If we become foreign we leave behind a lot of prosperity and jobs and say "hello" to a lot of .poverty. I'm not making a political point. It's just how it is.
On another point, the Orangemen are assembling outside my house. Although they are not people I normally give much thought to, I think it's nice that someone is making an emotional case for the union. Of its yes we shouldn't go gentle into the night.
They have some cool plastic flags: union on one side; saltire on the other
I still wonder how any country manages to export goods based on your theory. Other countries seem to be very prosperous all over the world and did not fall to pieces on independence. Why would Scotland be unique in the world. If the price is right people will buy from anywhere, hence we get so much tat imported from China. It is nothing to do with "foreign" as you put it , when I buy goods I look for quality and price , not where made, unless goods are in a similar price range or are better quality I would buy local, will pay a small premium for local if quality is similar.
except Scotland doesn't trade much with the rest of the world, it does nearly all its trade with rUK.
They will need to get their finger out Alan and find other markets then, sell more at home and abroad.
I'm generally pro 'Yes' but some of the comments coming from business and politicians are so overdone now as to look ridiculous, and I think they risk undermining No e.g. suggesting that Scotland might be heading for a Great Depression.
It's beginning to remind me of the Y2K farce.
Y2K wasn't a farce.
Oh David, I normally have such respect for your views. People flap about change and fear of the unknown, Y2K being a classic example. Yes work was done to prevent it, but that doesn't obviate the fact that the whole thing was a mass panic: planes falling from the sky, electrical appliances failing; the entire western economy collapsing. Ooooh look they're flapping again: this time about Scotland being independent.
Scotland would be fine on its own. Not necessarily economically 'better,' but it will get over the teething problems and turn out just fine.
Sure, an independent Scotland could do fine by itself. Ultimately, success rests on the decisions and actions of a people and its leaders, collectively and individually; not on where it's governed from (unless that government is excessively stifling). That said, a badly managed transition could set it back ten years or more.
However, re Y2K, I was on that project for the company I still work for and can assure you that it wasn't a mass panic based on nothing in particular. Had that work not been done, financial institutions could have failed (which could have led to "the entire western economy collapsing"). It didn't, because it was a relatively simple issue to deal with, if a deeply and repeatedly embedded one, and the work was completed and tested successfully. The hysteria - to the extent that it existed - was a consequence of the media playing up the risk without counterbalancing it with the remedy.
Some of the spreadsheets I still use at work are pre Y2K compliant.
Then again some of the machinery is pre computers.
I suspect some of the code I wrote for Y2K might not work in 2100, since 2100 isn't a leap year.
I don't recall reading anything much about 'Orange walks' in England and I've certainly never seen one - Wiki has a long write up for Ireland, Scotland and Canada etc, but only has this to say: - "Orange Walks also exist in England, particularly in Liverpool." er that's it.
Apparently there was one in London in 2007, but can anyone remember any other 'walks' taking place around the country?
[I should add, by 'country' I mean England]
Portsmouth and Corby have quite substantial parades.
Cheers Mr Fear - did a quick on-line search wrt Portsmouth 'O.Ws' and there appears to be zero media reporting of events by national press. - perhaps they are much smaller affairs than in other cities, or simply do not arouse such a large following/antipathy here in the south.
In Glasgow/West Scotland they are as numerous as buses in the marching season , usually by now they are back in their caves for the winter. Costs millions to police and clear up the debris after their rampages.
wow,! rampages ! those sad old gits must really know how to party !
I love it as a scene in Cabaret. And as he sings, the rest of the patrons start to stand up and join in. It's so wonderfully sinister yet apparently joyful.
At the risk of going off-topic, 'Tomorrow Belongs to Me' is probably the most important song in musical theatre. I have not heard, seen or read anything - whether documentary, fictional or analytical history - which so well encapsulates the corrupted hope that lay at the heart of the Nazi success in the 1930s. To put the words into the mouth of a 12-13 year-old youth just adds heart-breaking genius. Who doesn't want to believe that tomorrow belongs to them at that age? And yet even saying that betrays the dark, beating heart at the centre of the movement: the sense of absolute entitlement; the implicit 'and not to you', which in tolerant societies would be coached out but which is instead encouraged. And the final counterpoint, stridently obvious to us but unheard to him: we know the future that really belongs to him.
I don't recall reading anything much about 'Orange walks' in England and I've certainly never seen one - Wiki has a long write up for Ireland, Scotland and Canada etc, but only has this to say: - "Orange Walks also exist in England, particularly in Liverpool." er that's it.
Apparently there was one in London in 2007, but can anyone remember any other 'walks' taking place around the country?
[I should add, by 'country' I mean England]
Portsmouth and Corby have quite substantial parades.
Cheers Mr Fear - did a quick on-line search wrt Portsmouth 'O.Ws' and there appears to be zero media reporting of events by national press. - perhaps they are much smaller affairs than in other cities, or simply do not arouse such a large following/antipathy here in the south.
In Glasgow/West Scotland they are as numerous as buses in the marching season , usually by now they are back in their caves for the winter. Costs millions to police and clear up the debris after their rampages.
Morning MrG - While doing a little research on the subject, Glasgow was obviously mentioned several times; apparently there was talk of banning them some years ago, based on a poll which found 53% in favour. – local council poll, caveat emptor etc..
Comments
Admittedly it's sell up and move south for your pension but that's streets ahead of the Scottish Government who don't even appear to have a realistic Plan A.
Has anyone told the voters that all these discussions about the future currency of Scotland, and whether BT is "bluffing" or not, is only to cover the next six years?
Obviously the rUK will have no problem with short term transitional arrangements where such arrangements are in their interests. (again whether even a short term currency union is sustainable is another matter)
"This vote is not about nationalism, it is about social democracy, and for myself and the people of Scotland, social democracy is at the root of our desire for Independence.
"An independent state of Scotland will reinforce its own laws, embrace new forms of political thinking, new creeds, new political parties, and new positions of argument.
"Independence will allow a new system to be put in place, and in Scotland's case, and for the people of Scotland, a system of social equality where the yoke of the old feudal ideologies are finally dismantled."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-scotland-29182072
Must have missed the bits about the workers soviets. Though Cox seems to ignore that Scotland kept its legal system, its education system and its health care system. I'm sure that his remarks will help reassure banks, savers, depositors, pension funds, retailers, investors that their money is safer elsewhere. I am certain that his modest proposals will not lead to the passage of a new article 58 of The Scottish Penal code which leads to an automatic 5 year re-education programme.
http://youtu.be/ReIAna459sg
Scotland could easily turn into Venezuela or Cuba under the SNP. Anybody with a business would be utterly f8cked
Yes, it was written by a couple of Jewish songwriters, and the words in the version posted were subtly changed.
When it was first sung by Alex (in Berlin I believe) the audience had a WTF? moment before realising what those small changes meant.
Because of the attitude of the SNP to the private enterprises that keep Switzerland and Denmark stable and prosperous??
ie: get lost or get what's coming.
ps: I was giving a personal opinion , I am not a spokesman for YES or SNP or any other organisation.
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick 4m
Grandmasters of the Orange Order gathered from all over the UK in Edinburgh this morning to defend the Union http://tinyurl.com/kbo798b
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aK21p8NEL8Y
A very good post, Mr. O. Whilst I agree with your substantive points where I must part company with you is over the passion for the Union. I will be marginally sad to see it go but no more than that and I suspect a large proportion of the English, perhaps even the majority, feel much the same.
For whatever reasons, and they really don't matter, the two countries have grown apart and are largely looking for different solutions. These things happen and, as with a marriage, sometimes its best to let it go as continuing to try and force compromises on both sides is more cruel than going through the pain of the split. The Better Together campaign is often criticised, not least on here, for not presenting a positive case for the Union. Well, perhaps they haven't done that because in reality there is no such case to be made.
So I hope for a Yes vote on Thursday and I will wish the Scots well and expect my government to get the best possible deal for rUK in the subsequent negotiations.
ps:I see in comments they are all asking if Flash is there, wonder if that is the Flash of this parish
Of course you can keep the pound, but in order to hang on to enough pounds you will need to generate a large of amount services and products people need and want.
Scotland doesn't. Oil will help, but as Venezuela shows, it is not enough of itself. You will need large and prosperous businesses and an entrepreneurial culture.
You don't have either. The businesses you do have are being treated with incredible hostility.
'There's no one left to tell the truth': how Scottish unionism lost the plot | Brilliant from @jgforsyth http://specc.ie/1BtzqB3
Good article from the Speccie, for a change.
Scotland would be fine on its own. Not necessarily economically 'better,' but it will get over the teething problems and turn out just fine.
I was absolutely amazed to see Diane Abbott on This Week taking seriously the idea that we could delay the general election for a year. I almost wanted to throw something at the screen. You might expect it from a Tory MP but a Labour one? Left wing voters in England and Wales want this government gone as soon as they can vote on it. If Labour collude in delaying the election, those voters will go beserk. It's ludicrous. If I'm remembering correctly I think she also said that it wouldn't necessarily be a good time to come into government. So let's keep the coalition in power for another year and let them deal with the fallout of the disunion. When the going gets tough the Labour party goes missing - or so the voters will see it. Hopefully wiser heads will prevail in the party.
Lab 5%+
Lab 2%-5%
Lab 0%-2%
Con 0%-2%
Con 2%-5%
Con 5%+
Against that, I was very generous about (4), which should probably also be more like 1 in 6, so we're back where we were.
PS. The above are numbers pulled out of my arse, not offers to bet.
We will do OK , you worry about whether sheep and leeks will keep you gainfully employed.
I know you need to come here for differentiation so you can connect to some half-remembered progressiveness, but you've gone native.
You are right about the Scottish parties. There is no doubt they will set themselves up as entirely separate entities as soon as Yes wins. My guess is that actually Scottish Labour will win the first iScot GE because by then the SNP's lies will be completely apparent.
http://news.ulster.ac.uk/releases/2005/1643.html
The country I live in will remain England. The country I do much of my work in will remain Scotland. Both are great places now and will remain great places if Scotland wins Independence.
I see nothing to be upset about about the prospect of a friendly neighbour to the North as opposed to a sullen and truculent family member.
However, re Y2K, I was on that project for the company I still work for and can assure you that it wasn't a mass panic based on nothing in particular. Had that work not been done, financial institutions could have failed (which could have led to "the entire western economy collapsing"). It didn't, because it was a relatively simple issue to deal with, if a deeply and repeatedly embedded one, and the work was completed and tested successfully. The hysteria - to the extent that it existed - was a consequence of the media playing up the risk without counterbalancing it with the remedy.
Let me change that to barely remembered progressiveness.
Apparently there was one in London in 2007, but can anyone remember any other 'walks' taking place around the country?
[I should add, by 'country' I mean England]
On an ACCA basis, off the top of my head, I rate your three pre-conditions as follows:
Yes referendum vote ............................... 4/1
Narrow Labour win in popular vote ......... 2/1
Differential Impact re: polling shifts ........ 5/1
A treble based on the above produces combined winning odds of 89/1, some way longer than the bookie's offering of 66/1.
The great unknown here in terms of assessing the likely odds is the third element, where I have had a guess at 5/1. I don't think most would argue greatly with the odds I have attributed to the other two elements.
For the 66/1 price to be justified on this basis, the odds against the third part of the accumulator would need to reduce from 5/1 to 7/2, considerably too short in my opinion. Conversely if one were to lengthen the odds by the same one and a half points from 5/1 to 13/2, the combined odds stretch out to 111/1.
if you're going to keep getting the blame make sure it's for something worthwhile.
If there is a Yes vote, I will become an English Scot.
This is one of the occasions when if they vote 'Yes' everyone will wake up the next morning and realise they are still alive.
Wintour tweet
If we become foreign we leave behind a lot of prosperity and jobs and say "hello" to a lot of .poverty. I'm not making a political point. It's just how it is.
On another point, the Orangemen are assembling outside my house. Although they are not people I normally give much thought to, I think it's nice that someone is making an emotional case for the union. Of its yes we shouldn't go gentle into the night.
They have some cool plastic flags: union on one side; saltire on the other
I am afraid I agree with you about the institutional Left. I am sick of it. Triangulating, lazy, backward looking, complacent and remote. I cannot defend it. It needs to start again. I guess the break-up of the UK will be the opportunity.
Let me go further. The Downton Abbey world collapsed in 1914 and working class democracy was born. This seemed to last for about 60 years before Mrs Thatcher came along. To my mind the most depressing lesson of that period was the idea that economic democracy had failed and that we needed to put those who owned the capital in full control (they being the wealth creators). A victory for the establishment. At the same time a bunch of 'enlightened' liberals who didn't much like Mrs Thatcher decided the Labour party had let them down and many working class voters couldn't be trusted. They took over the Labour party and used the British political system of FPTP to their advantage. All that would matter would be a few thousand voters in a handful of marginal constituencies. Turnout collapsed in core Labour areas, in some cases below 50% in general elections, but what did this matter? It didn't lose Labour a single MP. There was disenchantment but voters had nowhere to go under the current political system.
Such things are not really a problem in England or probably Wales but Scotland is different. In Scotland you have 25-30% of people who have always believed in independence. Many of them well off and secure. Combine that with another 25% who feel left behind, disillusioned with those in power and facing 6 years of falling living standards with no hope going forward and you get an explosive combination that can destroy the UK.
Then again some of the machinery is pre computers.
When is the Scots indy refererendum result due to be announced ? Who will make the announcement ?
I love it as a scene in Cabaret. And as he sings, the rest of the patrons start to stand up and join in. It's so wonderfully sinister yet apparently joyful.
Morning MrG - While doing a little research on the subject, Glasgow was obviously mentioned several times; apparently there was talk of banning them some years ago, based on a poll which found 53% in favour. – local council poll, caveat emptor etc..