@Alanbrooke I would assume that on a "no" they will lose some support, but that they will still be a major force.
short term I'd agree, but if it's a no there won't be another Indyref for quite some time. In my lifetime we;ve had a scottish vote of some sort every 17 years and bar the partisan I can't really see an appetite for another 3 year campaign. Everybody needs to calm down for a while.
I suspect the reason that the West Lothian Question & the Barnett formula impact to date have had little impact in England is due to low English voter awareness.
Let's roll forward to post the election and little Ed's in power by virtue of Scottish & Welsh seats. If Labour change English taxes, or English education, or English NHS by dint of their non English MP's, the English will be in revolt.
If the Tories do not make a huge play of being the party for England over the next 8 months, they are idiots. You can guarantee UKIP will if they don't. Labour of course can't as they are the ones who reap the rewards of our dodgy "democracy".
The West Lothian question and issues of the Barnett formula would lead you down a road of having separate parliaments for each of the UK nations, plus a much smaller UK federal parliament. So you could have different tax/spending arrangements in each country, with competition on corporation taxes. The SNP policy is to reduce corporation tax in Scotland by 3%, to see if they can encourage businesses to move there.
The regions of England and city and rural areas are very different. The Tories are not that strong in parts of London, Birmingham and Manchester. If England were to have their own parliament, there is no reason why the Tories would dominate, holding a majority most of the time. I think the Blair government held a majority of English seats in 1997 and 2001. So it is possible that Labour could form the government holding a majority in terms of English seats.
It would not be a good idea for the Tories to campaign as the English party, as they have long been the unionist party. Plus many people living in England might be put off by a party that decides to put forward nationalistic interests of England against the other countries of the UK. You can't under estimate the number of people living in England, who come from a non-English background.
@Carnyx True or not,both sides have their mindless idiots. I would hazard a guess that their are parts of Larkhall where a "yes" poster might attract the attention of a drunk adolescent or two.
We do not ever see the frothers on here reporting this kind of stuff which happens daily in Scotland, they prefer to go with the lies. twitter.com/DerecThompson/status/510449449962053632/photo/1
If the atmosphere in real life remotely approaches that on line, Scotland is in for a rough ride regardless of Thursday's result.
Fortunately, the more "active" posters on line are invariably cowards when stripped of their keyboards and anonymity, so are unlikely to come face to face with the targets of their on line heroism.
Malc - In your open honest and unbiased personal opinion what do you think the outcome will be? Clearly you're saying a YES - but by how much?
I think in region of 55% YES is a reasonable number
Nah. You're gonna be eating that humble pie and a pint of finest English cider.
(and then those nasty English Westminster elite will equalise spending across the UK and hang a 90ft wide portrait of Maggie from Edinburgh Castle for all on Princes Street to admire) ;-)
@Alanbrooke The SNP will only really split on a "Yes" vote, As long as the "cause" is there, they will survive.
The coalition that is the SNP is inherently unstable. Post indyref what's to keep them together ? The left will want to pull left to an ultra purer republic the business bloc will take stock and maybe decice Devo Max is what they want. The centre won't hold.
I agree. There are many Scottish centre right minded people who don't support the Tories because they think that leads nowhere in Scotland. A 'not SLAB' voting block. The outright nastiness and hard leftiness of the SNP campaign will have a chunk of them looking elsewhere in May.
Patrick, what about us soft right wingers , where will we go
LOL Scottish Sun promising cheaper beer post Indy with the party that wants minimum alcohol pricing. Logic is dead in Scotland.
Even if the beer is cheaper, most people with mortgages will have less to spend on it, thanks to covering the additional costs of currency fluctuations between the new Scottish currency and sterling.
@Alanbrooke The SNP will only really split on a "Yes" vote, As long as the "cause" is there, they will survive.
The coalition that is the SNP is inherently unstable. Post indyref what's to keep them together ? The left will want to pull left to an ultra purer republic the business bloc will take stock and maybe decice Devo Max is what they want. The centre won't hold.
I agree. There are many Scottish centre right minded people who don't support the Tories because they think that leads nowhere in Scotland. A 'not SLAB' voting block. The outright nastiness and hard leftiness of the SNP campaign will have a chunk of them looking elsewhere in May.
Patrick, what about us soft right wingers , where will we go
Malc - In your open honest and unbiased personal opinion what do you think the outcome will be? Clearly you're saying a YES - but by how much?
I think in region of 55% YES is a reasonable number
Nah. You're gonna be eating that humble pie and a pint of finest English cider.
(and then those nasty English Westminster elite will equalise spending across the UK and hang a 90ft wide portrait of Maggie from Edinburgh Castle for all on Princes Street to admire) ;-)
Patrick , I would enjoy the pie and cider , however if NO a 90ft Maggie picture will be the least of the retributions we can expect, we will for sure if that is the outcome be punished big time for being uppity and then spineless and will deserve it totally.
If the atmosphere in real life remotely approaches that on line, Scotland is in for a rough ride regardless of Thursday's result.
Fortunately, the more "active" posters on line are invariably cowards when stripped of their keyboards and anonymity, so are unlikely to come face to face with the targets of their on line heroism.
LOL Scottish Sun promising cheaper beer post Indy with the party that wants minimum alcohol pricing. Logic is dead in Scotland.
Even if the beer is cheaper, most people with mortgages will have less to spend on it, thanks to covering the additional costs of currency fluctuations between the new Scottish currency and sterling.
@Alanbrooke I doubt it, at least in a world wide sense, slightly more tarnished in England, but it always was for many. (refer back to the comments before the debate really kicked off)
If the atmosphere in real life remotely approaches that on line, Scotland is in for a rough ride regardless of Thursday's result.
Fortunately, the more "active" posters on line are invariably cowards when stripped of their keyboards and anonymity, so are unlikely to come face to face with the targets of their on line heroism.
So says a big girls blouse
Obvious troll, trolls obviously.
Sad fanny writes gibberish, bet you are great at crushing grapes
Malc - In your open honest and unbiased personal opinion what do you think the outcome will be? Clearly you're saying a YES - but by how much?
I think in region of 55% YES is a reasonable number
Nah. You're gonna be eating that humble pie and a pint of finest English cider.
(and then those nasty English Westminster elite will equalise spending across the UK and hang a 90ft wide portrait of Maggie from Edinburgh Castle for all on Princes Street to admire) ;-)
Patrick , I would enjoy the pie and cider , however if NO a 90ft Maggie picture will be the least of the retributions we can expect, we will for sure if that is the outcome be punished big time for being uppity and then spineless and will deserve it totally.
Yup. Serve you right for even thinking a country with no currency and 'a reckoning' with the world of business is anything other than batshit insane. Alanbrooke is spot on. Scotland has paraded itself in front of the world and you look like a herd of yammering monkeys. Throwing poo at each other and at mummy.
I suspect the reason that the West Lothian Question & the Barnett formula impact to date have had little impact in England is due to low English voter awareness.
Let's roll forward to post the election and little Ed's in power by virtue of Scottish & Welsh seats. If Labour change English taxes, or English education, or English NHS by dint of their non English MP's, the English will be in revolt.
If the Tories do not make a huge play of being the party for England over the next 8 months, they are idiots. You can guarantee UKIP will if they don't. Labour of course can't as they are the ones who reap the rewards of our dodgy "democracy".
The West Lothian question and issues of the Barnett formula would lead you down a road of having separate parliaments for each of the UK nations, plus a much smaller UK federal parliament. So you could have different tax/spending arrangements in each country, with competition on corporation taxes. The SNP policy is to reduce corporation tax in Scotland by 3%, to see if they can encourage businesses to move there.
The regions of England and city and rural areas are very different. The Tories are not that strong in parts of London, Birmingham and Manchester. If England were to have their own parliament, there is no reason why the Tories would dominate, holding a majority most of the time. I think the Blair government held a majority of English seats in 1997 and 2001. So it is possible that Labour could form the government holding a majority in terms of English seats.
It would not be a good idea for the Tories to campaign as the English party, as they have long been the unionist party. Plus many people living in England might be put off by a party that decides to put forward nationalistic interests of England against the other countries of the UK. You can't under estimate the number of people living in England, who come from a non-English background.
A slight rephrase - a party for England ie those living in England, not just the English.
My overall point is there is now and will be increasing awareness of the WLQ. Today, Scottish MP's should not be voting on England only issues and Labour have only got away with it as its a dirty little Westminster secret. Its only going to become a bigger issue as Scotland either departs or gets more localised power.
Malc - In your open honest and unbiased personal opinion what do you think the outcome will be? Clearly you're saying a YES - but by how much?
Patrick, putting me on the spot. I think the lies this week will change some people's mind , my own daughter is wobbling re finances , mortgages etc, but overall it will have hardened opinions to YES. Th emillionaire MP's taking a day trip, Effete Westminster party leaders talking to selected groups behind locked doors and dullards like Brown and Farage trying to feel important will all drive people to Yes. I think in region of 55% YES is a reasonable number, but the sense of optimism may really change things.
Malcolm , I support yes , but the reports put about by likes of the Deutsche Bank are scary stuff so close to the last crisis. I imagine it would make some people twitch a bit. I believe there will be a currency union, to stop a crisis after a yes vote. The markets will not let them have a cosy chat about it for 2 years.
LOL Scottish Sun promising cheaper beer post Indy with the party that wants minimum alcohol pricing. Logic is dead in Scotland.
Alan, nothing wrong with cheaper beer , I would vote for that
yes malc, but with minimum alcohol pricing shoving prices up you're not going to get it.
I've got to say in this last week or so Brand Scotland has been trashed, shat on and passed through the shredder. Sad.
Alan, luckily I do not drink the low end stuff that gets price increases so no impact on me as the quality stuff is normally at or over the minimum. Only in the mind of Tories Alan, we will survive , vote YES and confound those grasping gong seekers who are currently licking Dave's erchie
Malc - In your open honest and unbiased personal opinion what do you think the outcome will be? Clearly you're saying a YES - but by how much?
I think in region of 55% YES is a reasonable number
Nah. You're gonna be eating that humble pie and a pint of finest English cider.
(and then those nasty English Westminster elite will equalise spending across the UK and hang a 90ft wide portrait of Maggie from Edinburgh Castle for all on Princes Street to admire) ;-)
Patrick , I would enjoy the pie and cider , however if NO a 90ft Maggie picture will be the least of the retributions we can expect, we will for sure if that is the outcome be punished big time for being uppity and then spineless and will deserve it totally.
Yup. Serve you right for even thinking a country with no currency and 'a reckoning' with the world of business is anything other than batshit insane. Alanbrooke is spot on. Scotland has paraded itself in front of the world and you look like a herd of yammering monkeys. Throwing poo at each other and at mummy.
By the way, I'd really discount the "scared no voter" theory (that No has a reserve of voters who won't admit it to the polls). I can see people being nervous about putting up posters (that happens even in Broxtowe, where the probability of someone throwing a stone is virtually zero - the normal reaction when people find their neighbours disagree is mild amusement), but not being nervous filling out an online survey or talking to some anonymous phone interviewer.
TBF I think you can put the theory better than "scared". If you've got one side that's all hope and pride and romance while the other side is running on fear, uncertainty and doubt, you might prefer to tell _yourself_ that you're with yes or still on the fence when answering a poll that won't affect anything, but then when you know your vote actually counts jump to no.
That said, I think it's generally best not to get too clever and "correct" for polls, because there's so much room for cognitive bias. Generally if the polling average says X leads 3% over Y, the most likely of the outcomes is for X to lead 3% over Y, and each point in either direction gets progressively less likely.
Nick, you are a nice guy but you are English and don't get Scotland. I run a company in the middle of the battlezone. My staff come from areas such as Coatbridge, Motherwell and Larkhall. This election has reignited old battles and several of my staff have actively stop speaking to each other. I have made sure my staff know that we are a company built on the union and we have been eliminating any suppliers from the opposing camp. I just stopped a contract with a guy we had done business with for over 10 years worth £30k. Not much but it is about a third of his income. The scars from this referendum will live on for a long time.
That being said I think the polls are generally accurate but may be missing a few things. I am not convinced that weightings based on Scottish 2011 election are that useful. They consistently move the Yes vote up by about 3-4%. The No vote also includes the young, the English students, rural and the transient which may not be fully caught in the polls.
@Alanbrooke I doubt it, at least in a world wide sense, slightly more tarnished in England, but it always was for many. (refer back to the comments before the debate really kicked off)
Ah yes that hope thing, keep hoping.
You don't trade much with most of the world you do about 85% of your trade with England, the people whose opinion you think doesn't count for much.
Malc - In your open honest and unbiased personal opinion what do you think the outcome will be? Clearly you're saying a YES - but by how much?
I think in region of 55% YES is a reasonable number
Nah. You're gonna be eating that humble pie and a pint of finest English cider.
(and then those nasty English Westminster elite will equalise spending across the UK and hang a 90ft wide portrait of Maggie from Edinburgh Castle for all on Princes Street to admire) ;-)
Patrick , I would enjoy the pie and cider , however if NO a 90ft Maggie picture will be the least of the retributions we can expect, we will for sure if that is the outcome be punished big time for being uppity and then spineless and will deserve it totally.
Yup. Serve you right for even thinking a country with no currency and 'a reckoning' with the world of business is anything other than batshit insane. Alanbrooke is spot on. Scotland has paraded itself in front of the world and you look like a herd of yammering monkeys. Throwing poo at each other and at mummy.
Patrick , "He who laughs last laughs loudest"
Well, the poo will be on you if it's a YES. Careful what you wish for.
Malc - In your open honest and unbiased personal opinion what do you think the outcome will be? Clearly you're saying a YES - but by how much?
Patrick, putting me on the spot. I think the lies this week will change some people's mind , my own daughter is wobbling re finances , mortgages etc, but overall it will have hardened opinions to YES. Th emillionaire MP's taking a day trip, Effete Westminster party leaders talking to selected groups behind locked doors and dullards like Brown and Farage trying to feel important will all drive people to Yes. I think in region of 55% YES is a reasonable number, but the sense of optimism may really change things.
Malcolm , I support yes , but the reports put about by likes of the Deutsche Bank are scary stuff so close to the last crisis. I imagine it would make some people twitch a bit. I believe there will be a currency union, to stop a crisis after a yes vote. The markets will not let them have a cosy chat about it for 2 years.
York, for sure , old Georgie has cancelled his first class ticket to Australia next week so he can announce the CU from Downing Street. We are made of better stuff than cowering at threats from craven Tory liars and their lickspittles. The market will slap them down tout suite. Friday will be a great day for Scotland.
By the way, I'd really discount the "scared no voter" theory (that No has a reserve of voters who won't admit it to the polls). I can see people being nervous about putting up posters (that happens even in Broxtowe, where the probability of someone throwing a stone is virtually zero - the normal reaction when people find their neighbours disagree is mild amusement), but not being nervous filling out an online survey or talking to some anonymous phone interviewer.
TBF I think you can put the theory better than "scared". If you've got one side that's all hope and pride and romance while the other side is running on fear, uncertainty and doubt, you might prefer to tell _yourself_ that you're with yes or still on the fence when answering a poll that won't affect anything, but then when you know your vote actually counts jump to no.
That said, I think it's generally best not to get too clever and "correct" for polls, because there's so much room for cognitive bias. Generally if the polling average says X leads 3% over Y, the most likely of the outcomes is for X to lead 3% over Y, and each point in either direction gets progressively less likely.
Nick, you are a nice guy but you are English and don't get Scotland. I run a company in the middle of the battlezone. My staff come from areas such as Coatbridge, Motherwell and Larkhall. This election has reignited old battles and several of my staff have actively stop speaking to each other. I have made sure my staff know that we are a company built on the union and we have been eliminating any suppliers from the opposing camp. I just stopped a contract with a guy we had done business with for over 10 years worth £30k. Not much but it is about a third of his income. The scars from this referendum will live on for a long time.
That being said I think the polls are generally accurate but may be missing a few things. I am not convinced that weightings based on Scottish 2011 election are that useful. They consistently move the Yes vote up by about 3-4%. The No vote also includes the young, the English students, rural and the transient which may not be fully caught in the polls.
What can one expect from a bigoted dinosaur. Sad sacks like you are on the way out and hopefully we will be rid of you soon. You accurately portray the nasty BT mentality.
Malc - In your open honest and unbiased personal opinion what do you think the outcome will be? Clearly you're saying a YES - but by how much?
Patrick, putting me on the spot. I think the lies this week will change some people's mind , my own daughter is wobbling re finances , mortgages etc, but overall it will have hardened opinions to YES. Th emillionaire MP's taking a day trip, Effete Westminster party leaders talking to selected groups behind locked doors and dullards like Brown and Farage trying to feel important will all drive people to Yes. I think in region of 55% YES is a reasonable number, but the sense of optimism may really change things.
Malcolm , I support yes , but the reports put about by likes of the Deutsche Bank are scary stuff so close to the last crisis. I imagine it would make some people twitch a bit. I believe there will be a currency union, to stop a crisis after a yes vote. The markets will not let them have a cosy chat about it for 2 years.
Eh? We already have a currency union. There isn't one to be created the day after a "yes" vote. And as the experience of Czechrep-Slovakia show the markets can break a currency union, and definitely if there isn't the political will to protect it. It's outside possible the outcome of a yes vote could be to bring Scottish independence forward significantly with almost all major issues to be determined later...
Malc - In your open honest and unbiased personal opinion what do you think the outcome will be? Clearly you're saying a YES - but by how much?
Patrick, putting me on the spot. I think the lies this week will change some people's mind , my own daughter is wobbling re finances , mortgages etc, but overall it will have hardened opinions to YES. Th emillionaire MP's taking a day trip, Effete Westminster party leaders talking to selected groups behind locked doors and dullards like Brown and Farage trying to feel important will all drive people to Yes. I think in region of 55% YES is a reasonable number, but the sense of optimism may really change things.
Malcolm , I support yes , but the reports put about by likes of the Deutsche Bank are scary stuff so close to the last crisis. I imagine it would make some people twitch a bit. I believe there will be a currency union, to stop a crisis after a yes vote. The markets will not let them have a cosy chat about it for 2 years.
York, for sure , old Georgie has cancelled his first class ticket to Australia next week so he can announce the CU from Downing Street. We are made of better stuff than cowering at threats from craven Tory liars and their lickspittles. The market will slap them down tout suite. Friday will be a great day for Scotland.
Today's FT:
"Scotland can promise that the pound will remain the currency of Scotland. It cannot promise a currency union, however. That takes two parties. Even if the government of the remaining UK is prepared to countenance such a union, there should be a referendum. The only satisfactory terms for the residual UK will be ones that impose very tight limits on the fiscal deficits Scotland can run. It must also insist that financial regulation will be run by the Bank of England, which would nonetheless remain accountable to the UK state alone."
By the way, I'd really discount the "scared no voter" theory (that No has a reserve of voters who won't admit it to the polls). I can see people being nervous about putting up posters (that happens even in Broxtowe, where the probability of someone throwing a stone is virtually zero - the normal reaction when people find their neighbours disagree is mild amusement), but not being nervous filling out an online survey or talking to some anonymous phone interviewer.
TBF I think you can put the theory better than "scared". If you've got one side that's all hope and pride and romance while the other side is running on fear, uncertainty and doubt, you might prefer to tell _yourself_ that you're with yes or still on the fence when answering a poll that won't affect anything, but then when you know your vote actually counts jump to no.
That said, I think it's generally best not to get too clever and "correct" for polls, because there's so much room for cognitive bias. Generally if the polling average says X leads 3% over Y, the most likely of the outcomes is for X to lead 3% over Y, and each point in either direction gets progressively less likely.
Nick, you are a nice guy but you are English and don't get Scotland. I run a company in the middle of the battlezone. My staff come from areas such as Coatbridge, Motherwell and Larkhall. This election has reignited old battles and several of my staff have actively stop speaking to each other. I have made sure my staff know that we are a company built on the union and we have been eliminating any suppliers from the opposing camp. I just stopped a contract with a guy we had done business with for over 10 years worth £30k. Not much but it is about a third of his income. The scars from this referendum will live on for a long time.
That being said I think the polls are generally accurate but may be missing a few things. I am not convinced that weightings based on Scottish 2011 election are that useful. They consistently move the Yes vote up by about 3-4%. The No vote also includes the young, the English students, rural and the transient which may not be fully caught in the polls.
Says the man who couldn't be arsed to vote in the Scottish 2011 election.
It would appear that BT's "fear-mongering" has largely failed. Yes Scotland has convinced most lis part of that theme, along with John Swinney's often repeated claim that no country has ever entered independence more prosperous (yeah, but where do we end up?)
Malc - In your open honest and unbiased personal opinion what do you think the outcome will be? Clearly you're saying a YES - but by how much?
I think in region of 55% YES is a reasonable number
Nah. You're gonna be eating that humble pie and a pint of finest English cider.
(and then those nasty English Westminster elite will equalise spending across the UK and hang a 90ft wide portrait of Maggie from Edinburgh Castle for all on Princes Street to admire) ;-)
Patrick , I would enjoy the pie and cider , however if NO a 90ft Maggie picture will be the least of the retributions we can expect, we will for sure if that is the outcome be punished big time for being uppity and then spineless and will deserve it totally.
Yup. Serve you right for even thinking a country with no currency and 'a reckoning' with the world of business is anything other than batshit insane. Alanbrooke is spot on. Scotland has paraded itself in front of the world and you look like a herd of yammering monkeys. Throwing poo at each other and at mummy.
Patrick , "He who laughs last laughs loudest"
Well, the poo will be on you if it's a YES. Careful what you wish for.
Patrick , what will be will be, I imagine we will do just fine on our own.
I'm generally pro 'Yes' but some of the comments coming from business and politicians are so overdone now as to look ridiculous, and I think they risk undermining No e.g. suggesting that Scotland might be heading for a Great Depression.
@saddened You will be glad to know that, in my neck of the woods at least, we seem to be taking it all in our stride. The one conclusion we have mutually agreed on is nobody is telling the truth.
@Carnyx You are a handy antidote to the normal raving on here, and as such would be sorely missed.
Thank you very much. Still thinking about whwther to stick it here. But for now I have just been reading the Herald (by no means Yes friendly on weekdays, though after the op-ed piece which Malky points out I'm beginning to wonder) over my Oatibix.
Three things stand out re intimidation and other issues:
1. They treat the Sillars affair briefly - very much as an overview of current debate.
2. The Scottish Review of Books is out today with the usual free copy in the Herald, and the journalist Kevin McKenna has written an indyref diary for it which is noticeably more personal than what he does for the pro-Union Graun. It's not online free yet AFAIK, but he makes two interesting points (IIRC he's a former firm No who has migrated somewhat towards Yes, but he can usually be relied upon to be idiosyncratic and often somewhat Irish in his perspective):
a. BT forced his being dropped from chairing a public indy debate because they didn't like him. Well, well.
b. He plainly reckons that BT are vastly over the top in their claims of intimidation - and that no such thing is happening (the odd egg and some heckling apart), and indeed other countries are observing this referendum with approbation. Indeed he suggests the polis would be better spending their time warning Blair McDougall and his team about their inciting unrest by using intemperate language.
He also notes that turnout is an issue in deciding the vote, given the likelihood of new voters voting Yes (or so he reckons). Given the No campaign warnings of "utter carnage" a polling stations, his acid comment is: "Surely, though, the No camp would not stoop to the point where they are actively trying to dissuade people from voting by scaring them?".
3. And the Archbishop of St Andrews approves of the tone of indyref -
McKenna goes so far as to call the No campaign warnings of polling station carnage "desperate propaganda". I simply do not get that sense of intimidation going on either - as opposed to robust comment - and the lack of specific documented examples - like the broken windows in the block of flats adduced earlier today - goes to support this sense.
Malc - In your open honest and unbiased personal opinion what do you think the outcome will be? Clearly you're saying a YES - but by how much?
I think in region of 55% YES is a reasonable number
Nah. You're gonna be eating that humble pie and a pint of finest English cider.
(and then those nasty English Westminster elite will equalise spending across the UK and hang a 90ft wide portrait of Maggie from Edinburgh Castle for all on Princes Street to admire) ;-)
Patrick , I would enjoy the pie and cider , however if NO a 90ft Maggie picture will be the least of the retributions we can expect, we will for sure if that is the outcome be punished big time for being uppity and then spineless and will deserve it totally.
Yup. Serve you right for even thinking a country with no currency and 'a reckoning' with the world of business is anything other than batshit insane. Alanbrooke is spot on. Scotland has paraded itself in front of the world and you look like a herd of yammering monkeys. Throwing poo at each other and at mummy.
Malc - In your open honest and unbiased personal opinion what do you think the outcome will be? Clearly you're saying a YES - but by how much?
Patrick, putting me on the spot. I think the lies this week will change some people's mind , my own daughter is wobbling re finances , mortgages etc, but overall it will have hardened opinions to YES. Th emillionaire MP's taking a day trip, Effete Westminster party leaders talking to selected groups behind locked doors and dullards like Brown and Farage trying to feel important will all drive people to Yes. I think in region of 55% YES is a reasonable number, but the sense of optimism may really change things.
Malcolm , I support yes , but the reports put about by likes of the Deutsche Bank are scary stuff so close to the last crisis. I imagine it would make some people twitch a bit. I believe there will be a currency union, to stop a crisis after a yes vote. The markets will not let them have a cosy chat about it for 2 years.
York, for sure , old Georgie has cancelled his first class ticket to Australia next week so he can announce the CU from Downing Street. We are made of better stuff than cowering at threats from craven Tory liars and their lickspittles. The market will slap them down tout suite. Friday will be a great day for Scotland.
Today's FT:
"Scotland can promise that the pound will remain the currency of Scotland. It cannot promise a currency union, however. That takes two parties. Even if the government of the remaining UK is prepared to countenance such a union, there should be a referendum. The only satisfactory terms for the residual UK will be ones that impose very tight limits on the fiscal deficits Scotland can run. It must also insist that financial regulation will be run by the Bank of England, which would nonetheless remain accountable to the UK state alone."
It is one viewpoint , but no matter in the short term there will be a currency agreement whatever they call it , it will be necessary for both sides in the short term. Anyone suggesting anything else is hamming it.
On topic.Interesting that David's calculations for GE2015 do not include an assumption of swingback.On the indyref there are 2 guides,one the apparent correlation of a Labour win in the polls for GE2015 with the inverted Yes curve.The current small Labour lead of 3-4 points confirms this.The other is the Quebec experience where the equivalent of a No surge happened on the day.The anti-separatists seem to be playing out of the same songbook as Quebec. The Communist Party,once hugely influential in Scotland, has spoken."Everyone knows that this is not a national struggle but a class struggle"-take that SNP capitalists-and also says "What would Scottish “White Paper” independence do? Precisely the opposite of what the realities of class struggle demand. It would leave the British capitalist class and all its institutions intact and strengthened, and would organisationally divide and fragment the working-class movement making co-ordinated, generalised and solidarity action even more difficult across the newly drawn national border. It would leave Scotland with the current domination of its industry and financial services by international monopoly companies. It would keep the pound and the current monetary set up, with Bank of England oversight of taxation and borrowing. It would maintain spending cuts and austerity, with the promise of even greater corporation tax cuts and business tax “incentives.” It would see the seamless continuation of the malevolent all-pervasive control by the City of London. There is no indication of a repeal of anti-union laws. Even the monarchy stays, God bless them! All this would be enthusiastically reinforced by the European Union and its “austerity police.”
and concludes."But such despair and frustration must not result in the desperate grasping at “easy answers” such as the illusions offered by nationalists — easy answers that are in fact a trap that would strengthen capitalism and weaken our class throughout Scotland, Wales and England."
@Alanbrooke RBS screwed up the same way as the rest of the companies world wide, they got drunk on greed and power. It is the natural conclusion to the "free market", then we all start the merry go round once again.
@malcolmg "Friday will be a great day for Scotland. " Yes, the relief of stopping banging your head off a brick wall will be fantastic.
Smarm, I will be glad when it is over but has been worth the hassle, we will see a new Scotland which hopefully will be a better one, run by Scots for Scotland.
It would appear that BT's "fear-mongering" has largely failed. Yes Scotland has convinced most lis part of that theme, along with John Swinney's often repeated claim that no country has ever entered independence more prosperous (yeah, but where do we end up?)
It would appear that BT's "fear-mongering" has largely failed
Sorry got mangled in the posting.
It would appear that BT's "fear-mongering" has largely failed. Yes Scotland has convinced most people that independence will make no practical difference, which I a weird position to take, if you think about it. Their claim that the NHS will be protected, albeit nonsense is part of that no change theme, along with John Swinney's often repeated claim that no country has ever entered independence more prosperous (yeah, but where do we end up?)
On topic.Interesting that David's calculations for GE2015 do not include an assumption of swingback.On the indyref there are 2 guides,one the apparent correlation of a Labour win in the polls for GE2015 with the inverted Yes curve.The current small Labour lead of 3-4 points confirms this.The other is the Quebec experience where the equivalent of a No surge happened on the day.The anti-separatists seem to be playing out of the same songbook as Quebec. The Communist Party,once hugely influential in Scotland, has spoken."Everyone knows that this is not a national struggle but a class struggle"-take that SNP capitalists-and also says "What would Scottish “White Paper” independence do? Precisely the opposite of what the realities of class struggle demand. It would leave the British capitalist class and all its institutions intact and strengthened, and would organisationally divide and fragment the working-class movement making co-ordinated, generalised and solidarity action even more difficult across the newly drawn national border. It would leave Scotland with the current domination of its industry and financial services by international monopoly companies. It would keep the pound and the current monetary set up, with Bank of England oversight of taxation and borrowing. It would maintain spending cuts and austerity, with the promise of even greater corporation tax cuts and business tax “incentives.” It would see the seamless continuation of the malevolent all-pervasive control by the City of London. There is no indication of a repeal of anti-union laws. Even the monarchy stays, God bless them! All this would be enthusiastically reinforced by the European Union and its “austerity police.”
and concludes."But such despair and frustration must not result in the desperate grasping at “easy answers” such as the illusions offered by nationalists — easy answers that are in fact a trap that would strengthen capitalism and weaken our class throughout Scotland, Wales and England."
@saddened You will be glad to know that, in my neck of the woods at least, we seem to be taking it all in our stride. The one conclusion we have mutually agreed on is nobody is telling the truth.
@Carnyx You are a handy antidote to the normal raving on here, and as such would be sorely missed.
Thank you very much. Still thinking about whwther to stick it here. But for now I have just been reading the Herald (by no means Yes friendly on weekdays, though after the op-ed piece which Malky points out I'm beginning to wonder) over my Oatibix.
Three things stand out re intimidation and other issues:
1. They treat the Sillars affair briefly - very much as an overview of current debate.
2. The Scottish Review of Books is out today with the usual free copy in the Herald, and the journalist Kevin McKenna has written an indyref diary for it which is noticeably more personal than what he does for the pro-Union Graun. It's not online free yet AFAIK, but he makes two interesting points (IIRC he's a former firm No who has migrated somewhat towards Yes, but he can usually be relied upon to be idiosyncratic and often somewhat Irish in his perspective):
a. BT forced his being dropped from chairing a public indy debate because they didn't like him. Well, well.
b. He plainly reckons that BT are vastly over the top in their claims of intimidation - and that no such thing is happening (the odd egg and some heckling apart), and indeed other countries are observing this referendum with approbation. Indeed he suggests the polis would be better spending their time warning Blair McDougall and his team about their inciting unrest by using intemperate language.
3. And the Archbishop of St Andrews approves of the tone of indyref -
McKenna goes so far as to call the No campaign warnings of polling station carnage "desperate propaganda". I simply do not get that sense of intimidation going on either - as opposed to robust comment - and the lack of specific documented examples - like the broken windows in the block of flats adduced earlier today - goes to support this sense.
Carnyx, I think Kevin will be YES, he certainly comes over as leaning that way. Interesting that his children are split YES / NO as well.
PS , hopefully you stick it out , you need to really have thick skin to suffer the brickbats on here, it really is a nasty place apart from a few shining exceptions.
@Alanbrooke RBS screwed up the same way as the rest of the companies world wide, they got drunk on greed and power. It is the natural conclusion to the "free market", then we all start the merry go round once again.
That great UK bank run from London was leading the charge
On topic.Interesting that David's calculations for GE2015 do not include an assumption of swingback.On the indyref there are 2 guides,one the apparent correlation of a Labour win in the polls for GE2015 with the inverted Yes curve.The current small Labour lead of 3-4 points confirms this.The other is the Quebec experience where the equivalent of a No surge happened on the day.The anti-separatists seem to be playing out of the same songbook as Quebec. The Communist Party,once hugely influential in Scotland, has spoken."Everyone knows that this is not a national struggle but a class struggle"-take that SNP capitalists-and also says "What would Scottish “White Paper” independence do? Precisely the opposite of what the realities of class struggle demand. It would leave the British capitalist class and all its institutions intact and strengthened, and would organisationally divide and fragment the working-class movement making co-ordinated, generalised and solidarity action even more difficult across the newly drawn national border. It would leave Scotland with the current domination of its industry and financial services by international monopoly companies. It would keep the pound and the current monetary set up, with Bank of England oversight of taxation and borrowing. It would maintain spending cuts and austerity, with the promise of even greater corporation tax cuts and business tax “incentives.” It would see the seamless continuation of the malevolent all-pervasive control by the City of London. There is no indication of a repeal of anti-union laws. Even the monarchy stays, God bless them! All this would be enthusiastically reinforced by the European Union and its “austerity police.”
and concludes."But such despair and frustration must not result in the desperate grasping at “easy answers” such as the illusions offered by nationalists — easy answers that are in fact a trap that would strengthen capitalism and weaken our class throughout Scotland, Wales and England."
Malc - In your open honest and unbiased personal opinion what do you think the outcome will be? Clearly you're saying a YES - but by how much?
Patrick, putting me on the spot. I think the lies this week will change some people's mind , my own daughter is wobbling re finances , mortgages etc, but overall it will have hardened opinions to YES. Th emillionaire MP's taking a day trip, Effete Westminster party leaders talking to selected groups behind locked doors and dullards like Brown and Farage trying to feel important will all drive people to Yes. I think in region of 55% YES is a reasonable number, but the sense of optimism may really change things.
Malcolm , I support yes , but the reports put about by likes of the Deutsche Bank are scary stuff so close to the last crisis. I imagine it would make some people twitch a bit. I believe there will be a currency union, to stop a crisis after a yes vote. The markets will not let them have a cosy chat about it for 2 years.
Eh? We already have a currency union. There isn't one to be created the day after a "yes" vote. And as the experience of Czechrep-Slovakia show the markets can break a currency union, and definitely if there isn't the political will to protect it. It's outside possible the outcome of a yes vote could be to bring Scottish independence forward significantly with almost all major issues to be determined later...
Alex I realise we have a currency union now, but after a yes vote , there will have to be some quick announcements on the way forward . There will be a deal to be done, to avert a crisis, effecting the whole of these Isles.
Malc - In your open honest and unbiased personal opinion what do you think the outcome will be? Clearly you're saying a YES - but by how much?
Patrick, putting me on the spot. I think the lies this week will change some people's mind , my own daughter is wobbling re finances , mortgages etc, but overall it will have hardened opinions to YES. Th emillionaire MP's taking a day trip, Effete Westminster party leaders talking to selected groups behind locked doors and dullards like Brown and Farage trying to feel important will all drive people to Yes. I think in region of 55% YES is a reasonable number, but the sense of optimism may really change things.
Malcolm , I support yes , but the reports put about by likes of the Deutsche Bank are scary stuff so close to the last crisis. I imagine it would make some people twitch a bit. I believe there will be a currency union, to stop a crisis after a yes vote. The markets will not let them have a cosy chat about it for 2 years.
Eh? We already have a currency union. There isn't one to be created the day after a "yes" vote. And as the experience of Czechrep-Slovakia show the markets can break a currency union, and definitely if there isn't the political will to protect it. It's outside possible the outcome of a yes vote could be to bring Scottish independence forward significantly with almost all major issues to be determined later...
Alex I realise we have a currency union now, but after a yes vote , there will have to be some quick announcements on the way forward . There will be a deal to be done, to avert a crisis, effecting the whole of these Isles.
Question is will Georgie Porgy have to announce it before the vote or can he hang on till Friday.
@Alanbrooke RBS screwed up the same way as the rest of the companies world wide, they got drunk on greed and power. It is the natural conclusion to the "free market", then we all start the merry go round once again.
They paid no attention to the risks around them and nor does Salmond, who is of course and ex RBS man.
I have made sure my staff know that we are a company built on the union and we have been eliminating any suppliers from the opposing camp. I just stopped a contract with a guy we had done business with for over 10 years worth £30k. Not much but it is about a third of his income.
I don't have a dog in the Scottish independence fight but is that legal? Either way I don't know about anyone else but I wouldn't want to do business with someone who tried to bully me over my political opinions.
@Alanbrooke RBS screwed up the same way as the rest of the companies world wide, they got drunk on greed and power. It is the natural conclusion to the "free market", then we all start the merry go round once again.
That great UK bank run from London was leading the charge
LOL make your mind up, one minute they're a scottish bank bluffing about leaving and upsetting Salmond, the next they're an english bank.
@malcolmg It wasn't just them, and the city where they do business from is also unimportant. It is the philosophy behind it that made a crash certain. While capitalism can make progress at an impressive speed, the wheels continually fall off, and sometimes catastrophically. That's what economists mean by cycles, when the wheel comes loose somebody gets hurt.
I have made sure my staff know that we are a company built on the union and we have been eliminating any suppliers from the opposing camp. I just stopped a contract with a guy we had done business with for over 10 years worth £30k. Not much but it is about a third of his income.
I don't have a dog in the Scottish independence fight but is that legal? Either way I don't know about anyone else but I wouldn't want to do business with someone who tried to bully me over my political opinions.
Malc - In your open honest and unbiased personal opinion what do you think the outcome will be? Clearly you're saying a YES - but by how much?
Patrick, putting me on the spot. I think the lies this week will change some people's mind , my own daughter is wobbling re finances , mortgages etc, but overall it will have hardened opinions to YES. Th emillionaire MP's taking a day trip, Effete Westminster party leaders talking to selected groups behind locked doors and dullards like Brown and Farage trying to feel important will all drive people to Yes. I think in region of 55% YES is a reasonable number, but the sense of optimism may really change things.
Malcolm , I support yes , but the reports put about by likes of the Deutsche Bank are scary stuff so close to the last crisis. I imagine it would make some people twitch a bit. I believe there will be a currency union, to stop a crisis after a yes vote. The markets will not let them have a cosy chat about it for 2 years.
Eh? We already have a currency union. There isn't one to be created the day after a "yes" vote. And as the experience of Czechrep-Slovakia show the markets can break a currency union, and definitely if there isn't the political will to protect it. It's outside possible the outcome of a yes vote could be to bring Scottish independence forward significantly with almost all major issues to be determined later...
Alex I realise we have a currency union now, but after a yes vote , there will have to be some quick announcements on the way forward . There will be a deal to be done, to avert a crisis, effecting the whole of these Isles.
Politicians can "quickly announce" what they like, and i don't think it's remotely likely that one of these "announcements" will be agreement to a currency union post independence. And anyway you can't write the conditions for a currency union between two independent countries on the back of an envelope.
We could have the first instance of a currency union breaking up within a unitary state! Which means Scottish independence within months, not years.
Malc - In your open honest and unbiased personal opinion what do you think the outcome will be? Clearly you're saying a YES - but by how much?
Patrick, putting me on the spot. I think the lies this week will change some people's mind , my own daughter is wobbling re finances , mortgages etc, but overall it will have hardened opinions to YES. Th emillionaire MP's taking a day trip, Effete Westminster party leaders talking to selected groups behind locked doors and dullards like Brown and Farage trying to feel important will all drive people to Yes. I think in region of 55% YES is a reasonable number, but the sense of optimism may really change things.
Malcolm , I support yes , but the reports put about by likes of the Deutsche Bank are scary stuff so close to the last crisis. I imagine it would make some people twitch a bit. I believe there will be a currency union, to stop a crisis after a yes vote. The markets will not let them have a cosy chat about it for 2 years.
Eh? We already have a currency union. There isn't one to be created the day after a "yes" vote. And as the experience of Czechrep-Slovakia show the markets can break a currency union, and definitely if there isn't the political will to protect it. It's outside possible the outcome of a yes vote could be to bring Scottish independence forward significantly with almost all major issues to be determined later...
Alex I realise we have a currency union now, but after a yes vote , there will have to be some quick announcements on the way forward . There will be a deal to be done, to avert a crisis, effecting the whole of these Isles.
Question is will Georgie Porgy have to announce it before the vote or can he hang on till Friday.
Malcolm if there is a yes vote, it will not be a rushed announcement on the steps of the treasury, similar to Lamont and a young bag carrying Cameron. It will be already rehearsed in a very formal manner to offer reassurance.
@Alanbrooke RBS screwed up the same way as the rest of the companies world wide, they got drunk on greed and power. It is the natural conclusion to the "free market", then we all start the merry go round once again.
That great UK bank run from London was leading the charge
LOL make your mind up, one minute they're a scottish bank bluffing about leaving and upsetting Salmond, the next they're an english bank.
Alan they are a global bank currently contracting back to a UK bank , they have not been Scottish for many many years and they are not an English bank either.
Anyone else think the very name "Better Together" is weak and ironical?
I mean, it could just as well be the name of the YES campaign, if you think about it.
"We Ourselves" (aka Sinn Fein) is not a million miles away in meaning, and is, of course, the antithesis of Unionism...
It's clunky certainly. The fact that they've constantly tried rebranding (UKOK, No Thanks, United with Labour) shows it wasn't a comfortable fit, but given they were in a cleft stick in trying to avoid being NO, it's understandable. Probably should execute the spotty little SPAD that came up with Project Fear though.
They didn't really try UKOK did they? For UK Unity might have been worse, acronym-wise, but calling it youcock is about as dumb as it gets..
Malc - In your open honest and unbiased personal opinion what do you think the outcome will be? Clearly you're saying a YES - but by how much?
Patrick, putting me on the spot. I think the lies this week will change some people's mind , my own daughter is wobbling re finances , mortgages etc, but overall it will have hardened opinions to YES. Th emillionaire MP's taking a day trip, Effete Westminster party leaders talking to selected groups behind locked doors and dullards like Brown and Farage trying to feel important will all drive people to Yes. I think in region of 55% YES is a reasonable number, but the sense of optimism may really change things.
Malcolm , I support yes , but the reports put about by likes of the Deutsche Bank are scary stuff so close to the last crisis. I imagine it would make some people twitch a bit. I believe there will be a currency union, to stop a crisis after a yes vote. The markets will not let them have a cosy chat about it for 2 years.
Eh? We already have a currency union. There isn't one to be created the day after a "yes" vote. And as the experience of Czechrep-Slovakia show the markets can break a currency union, and definitely if there isn't the political will to protect it. It's outside possible the outcome of a yes vote could be to bring Scottish independence forward significantly with almost all major issues to be determined later...
Alex I realise we have a currency union now, but after a yes vote , there will have to be some quick announcements on the way forward . There will be a deal to be done, to avert a crisis, effecting the whole of these Isles.
Question is will Georgie Porgy have to announce it before the vote or can he hang on till Friday.
Malcolm if there is a yes vote, it will not be a rushed announcement on the steps of the treasury, similar to Lamont and a young bag carrying Cameron. It will be already rehearsed in a very formal manner to offer reassurance.
York, I agree it is already written and ready to go.
What's happened to Sillargate? The PB **** were telling us last night that the 'SNP no.2' making intemperate comments was the tipping point.
And once again one side jumping to conclusions about a tipping point is worthy of mockery, but another repeatedly doing so is no doubt completely correct. Both or neither being deserving of that is only fair when absurdly partisan idiots rule the roosts of both campaigns.
Malky, shome mishtake shomwhere. [Edit] Gardham and the Daily Herald going over to the other side would [edit] rate as something from this spoof - www.youtube.com/watch?v=nsRzO18nM8A
I had a poke around. What you have in that link is the mobey-optimised version. Clicking on the link to the desktop optimised version gives a different piece, which is much more pukka Gardhamiana, and this is the one in my dead tree version.
When I try the first sentence of "your" piece in the Herald search engine I get it OK on the search list, complete with Mr G as author, but it morphs to the pukka Gardham piece as above when I actually go to it.
Maybe someone else's piece has been ditched at the last minute - but even so it's a good joke to see Mr G's name on top of it.
@Alanbrooke RBS screwed up the same way as the rest of the companies world wide, they got drunk on greed and power. It is the natural conclusion to the "free market", then we all start the merry go round once again.
That great UK bank run from London was leading the charge
LOL make your mind up, one minute they're a scottish bank bluffing about leaving and upsetting Salmond, the next they're an english bank.
Alan they are a global bank currently contracting back to a UK bank , they have not been Scottish for many many years and they are not an English bank either.
In which the UK govt is an 81% shareholder and where Scotland's balance sheet is smaller than theirs, so they'll go. Why Salmond's pretending otherwise is plain pathetic.
And the other big banks and pension cos will go too.
Malc - In your open honest and unbiased personal opinion what do you think the outcome will be? Clearly you're saying a YES - but by how much?
Patrick, putting me on the spot. I think the lies this week will change some people's mind , my own daughter is wobbling re finances , mortgages etc, but overall it will have hardened opinions to YES. Th emillionaire MP's taking a day trip, Effete Westminster party leaders talking to selected groups behind locked doors and dullards like Brown and Farage trying to feel important will all drive people to Yes. I think in region of 55% YES is a reasonable number, but the sense of optimism may really change things.
Malcolm , I support yes , but the reports put about by likes of the Deutsche Bank are scary stuff so close to the last crisis. I imagine it would make some people twitch a bit. I believe there will be a currency union, to stop a crisis after a yes vote. The markets will not let them have a cosy chat about it for 2 years.
Eh? We already have a currency union. There isn't one to be created the day after a "yes" vote. And as the experience of Czechrep-Slovakia show the markets can break a currency union, and definitely if there isn't the political will to protect it. It's outside possible the outcome of a yes vote could be to bring Scottish independence forward significantly with almost all major issues to be determined later...
Alex I realise we have a currency union now, but after a yes vote , there will have to be some quick announcements on the way forward . There will be a deal to be done, to avert a crisis, effecting the whole of these Isles.
Politicians can "quickly announce" what they like, and i don't think it's remotely likely that one of these "announcements" will be agreement to a currency union post independence. And anyway you can't write the conditions for a currency union between two independent countries on the back of an envelope.
We could have the first instance of a currency union breaking up within a unitary state! Which means Scottish independence within months, not years.
I agree it will not be years. The B of E will announce the timetable of negotiations, and re state everything is the same until these are complete. They will reiterate all the current guarantees.
I'm generally pro 'Yes' but some of the comments coming from business and politicians are so overdone now as to look ridiculous, and I think they risk undermining No e.g. suggesting that Scotland might be heading for a Great Depression.
It's beginning to remind me of the Y2K farce.
Y2K wasn't a farce. just because a lot of things didn't go wrong doesn't mean they wouldn't have done had not a great deal of work been done in advance to prevent it.
The difference here is that it's a lot harder to do that kind of work. In all probability, talk of a Great Depression is excessive. However, if there is no agreement on a transitional currency union, it's entirely plausible - and without an agreement on national debt, I don't think there will be any form of currency union. Reaching agreement on splitting the debt is absolutely critical for Scotland: much more so than it would be for rUK.
Basically, imagine Scotland becoming independent without foreign reserves, without a central bank and without domestic banks (as they relocate to England). That will cause a severe restraint on liquidity. Not an outright blockage but a restriction nonetheless. Add in the pause in investment, the likely reduction in trade and other likely non-productive costs independence would impose, and it's not impossible to see a recession as a very likely outcome; certainly north of the border, possibly south too. Both sides would see an increase in interest rates. In Scotland, they could be extremely expensive if the markets take the view that the government had defaulted. True, not servicing pre-independence debt would be an advantage but it would be rapidly wiped out by the disadvantages of such a move, never mind the lasting resentment such an acrimonious split would produce in England.
A post-referendum, pre-independence Scottish government would have to do a deal on debt. The price they should be able to extract would be a limited currency union (I'd suggest 36 months max, so it's closed down before the 2020 election). That union would broadly be on the rUK's terms (e.g. financial regulation from London, Scotland to absorb its share of debt within the timeframe of the currency union), but would provide a far smoother transition than would otherwise be the case. The danger is that Salmond overplays his hand and the thing comes crashing down, in which case a depression is a realistic outcome.
I've wavered on the wider impact of this political campaign for the past couple of weeks. Can't imagine Labour recovering their position in Scotland after this, second, disaster (the first being offering devolution in 97) I think a tipping point has been reached. Not, as Stuart was suggesting earlier in the week, for Indy - but instead for the total collapse of the red team north of the border. Disgruntled Scots voters who stuck to labour out of familiarity, local custom, heavy Scottish presence in leadership etc will desert the Miliwagon.
In the event of a No next week, which I'm hoping for and can also just about imagine happening, the offer of more Devo for Scots will similarly be so unpopular elsewhere in the UK that more red votes will soften in England - especially in the poorer marginals.
I'm hoping that the political earthquakes of the last 2 weeks will actually shake people out of cosy yet negative outdated political allegiances (e.g. Anyone but Tories). The dynamism of necessary political radicalism has shifted towards the Tories, in some cases it has shifted towards the margins UKIP, SNP - people of my generation (under 30, just) would simply not consider voting old labour, they won't forgive new labour, and only see palatable radical change (away from ever growing state) from the blues.
Could it be that saddling my generation with student debts was yet another failure of the last 15 years - it provokes an awful lot less faith in the truth or fairness of universal welfarism - and provokes 30 years of balancing the budgets, reducing the scope of the state and more emphasis on personal responsibility?
(Another lurker (10+ years), coming in from the cold.
@Alanbrooke RBS screwed up the same way as the rest of the companies world wide, they got drunk on greed and power. It is the natural conclusion to the "free market", then we all start the merry go round once again.
That great UK bank run from London was leading the charge
LOL make your mind up, one minute they're a scottish bank bluffing about leaving and upsetting Salmond, the next they're an english bank.
Alan they are a global bank currently contracting back to a UK bank , they have not been Scottish for many many years and they are not an English bank either.
In which the UK govt is an 81% shareholder and where Scotland's balance sheet is smaller than theirs, so they'll go. Why Salmond's pretending otherwise is plain pathetic.
And the other big banks and pension cos will go too.
The idea that the large banks and financial companies won't move post "yes" is one of the least convincing accusations of "scaremongering" that there is. It's just obvious that it will happen. What's even stranger is that Salmond is so committed to his "exactly the same, but better" campaign that he has painted himself into this ridiculous corner. Because the large financial institutions moving out of an Independent Scotland should be a pre-condition for an Independent Scotland to be a success. He should be welcoming the announcements, not decrying them!
Malky, shome mishtake shomwhere. [Edit] Gardham and the Daily Herald going over to the other side would [edit] rate as something from this spoof - www.youtube.com/watch?v=nsRzO18nM8A
I had a poke around. What you have in that link is the mobey-optimised version. Clicking on the link to the desktop optimised version gives a different piece, which is much more pukka Gardhamiana, and this is the one in my dead tree version.
When I try the first sentence of "your" piece in the Herald search engine I get it OK on the search list, complete with Mr G as author, but it morphs to the pukka Gardham piece as above when I actually go to it.
Maybe someone else's piece has been ditched at the last minute - but even so it's a good joke to see Mr G's name on top of it.
Carnyx, Yes they pulled it after a short while saying it was an error , it was by Alan McGee I believe. They replaced it with usual Gardham unionist puff piece.
Malc - In your open honest and unbiased personal opinion what do you think the outcome will be? Clearly you're saying a YES - but by how much?
Patrick, putting me on the spot. I think the lies this week will change some people's mind , my own daughter is wobbling re finances , mortgages etc, but overall it will have hardened opinions to YES. Th emillionaire MP's taking a day trip, Effete Westminster party leaders talking to selected groups behind locked doors and dullards like Brown and Farage trying to feel important will all drive people to Yes. I think in region of 55% YES is a reasonable number, but the sense of optimism may really change things.
Malcolm , I support yes , but the reports put about by likes of the Deutsche Bank are scary stuff so close to the last crisis. I imagine it would make some people twitch a bit. I believe there will be a currency union, to stop a crisis after a yes vote. The markets will not let them have a cosy chat about it for 2 years.
Eh? We already have a currency union. There isn't one to be created the day after a "yes" vote. And as the experience of Czechrep-Slovakia show the markets can break a currency union, and definitely if there isn't the political will to protect it. It's outside possible the outcome of a yes vote could be to bring Scottish independence forward significantly with almost all major issues to be determined later...
Alex I realise we have a currency union now, but after a yes vote , there will have to be some quick announcements on the way forward . There will be a deal to be done, to avert a crisis, effecting the whole of these Isles.
Question is will Georgie Porgy have to announce it before the vote or can he hang on till Friday.
Malcolm if there is a yes vote, it will not be a rushed announcement on the steps of the treasury, similar to Lamont and a young bag carrying Cameron. It will be already rehearsed in a very formal manner to offer reassurance.
There will be an announcement sure to say " business as usual till actual independence BoE stands behind all current UK institutions till separation details are finalised etc etc blah blah". Fair enough. But that's not a future CU after independence.
A vast amount of water will go under the bridge in negotiations but I think it!s political suicide south of the border to agree a CU post actual independence. Or at least without an rUK referendum and I cannot see it passing that.
It graphically illustrates what this referendum is doing to the fabric of his country.
No it illustrates that we have moronic halfwits in BT who are nasty and vindictive. He is not representative of Scotland, he is representative of what is bad about the UK, he is a nasty bigot and one can only hope his business and him fail.
Malky, shome mishtake shomwhere. [Edit] Gardham and the Daily Herald going over to the other side would [edit] rate as something from this spoof - www.youtube.com/watch?v=nsRzO18nM8A
I had a poke around. What you have in that link is the mobey-optimised version. Clicking on the link to the desktop optimised version gives a different piece, which is much more pukka Gardhamiana, and this is the one in my dead tree version.
When I try the first sentence of "your" piece in the Herald search engine I get it OK on the search list, complete with Mr G as author, but it morphs to the pukka Gardham piece as above when I actually go to it.
Maybe someone else's piece has been ditched at the last minute - but even so it's a good joke to see Mr G's name on top of it.
Carnyx, Yes they pulled it after a short while saying it was an error , it was by Alan McGee I believe. They replaced it with usual Gardham unionist puff piece.
Indeed. I now see Wings couldn't (to his credit) believe it either and the commenters brought up confirmation.
@Alanbrooke RBS screwed up the same way as the rest of the companies world wide, they got drunk on greed and power. It is the natural conclusion to the "free market", then we all start the merry go round once again.
That great UK bank run from London was leading the charge
LOL make your mind up, one minute they're a scottish bank bluffing about leaving and upsetting Salmond, the next they're an english bank.
Alan they are a global bank currently contracting back to a UK bank , they have not been Scottish for many many years and they are not an English bank either.
In which the UK govt is an 81% shareholder and where Scotland's balance sheet is smaller than theirs, so they'll go. Why Salmond's pretending otherwise is plain pathetic.
And the other big banks and pension cos will go too.
Alan, heard it all before, it will be a paper move, RBS are already in London , they will keep their Scottish function as it is significantly cheaper than having it in London, the top brass will remain as ever in London and may give up their annual visit to Edinburgh at best.
Malc - In your open honest and unbiased personal opinion what do you think the outcome will be? Clearly you're saying a YES - but by how much?
Patrick, putting me on the spot. I think the lies this week will change some people's mind , my own daughter is wobbling re finances , mortgages etc, but overall it will have hardened opinions to YES. Th emillionaire MP's taking a day trip, Effete Westminster party leaders talking to selected groups behind locked doors and dullards like Brown and Farage trying to feel important will all drive people to Yes. I think in region of 55% YES is a reasonable number, but the sense of optimism may really change things.
Malcolm , I support yes , but the reports put about by likes of the Deutsche Bank are scary stuff so close to the last crisis. I imagine it would make some people twitch a bit. I believe there will be a currency union, to stop a crisis after a yes vote. The markets will not let them have a cosy chat about it for 2 years.
Eh? We already have a currency union. There isn't one to be created the day after a "yes" vote. And as the experience of Czechrep-Slovakia show the markets can break a currency union, and definitely if there isn't the political will to protect it. It's outside possible the outcome of a yes vote could be to bring Scottish independence forward significantly with almost all major issues to be determined later...
Alex I realise we have a currency union now, but after a yes vote , there will have to be some quick announcements on the way forward . There will be a deal to be done, to avert a crisis, effecting the whole of these Isles.
Politicians can "quickly announce" what they like, and i don't think it's remotely likely that one of these "announcements" will be agreement to a currency union post independence. And anyway you can't write the conditions for a currency union between two independent countries on the back of an envelope.
We could have the first instance of a currency union breaking up within a unitary state! Which means Scottish independence within months, not years.
I agree it will not be years. The B of E will announce the timetable of negotiations, and re state everything is the same until these are complete. They will reiterate all the current guarantees.
Well yes (although even that will hold or not is speculation if money floods out of Scotland). This (a "business as usual until independence" announcement) is clearly nothing like what MalcolmG's mind is imagining.
I'm generally pro 'Yes' but some of the comments coming from business and politicians are so overdone now as to look ridiculous, and I think they risk undermining No e.g. suggesting that Scotland might be heading for a Great Depression.
It's beginning to remind me of the Y2K farce.
Good post. The hyperbole is completely laughable and could well backfire. The idea that Scotland would not be a happy, healthy, wealthy Indy nation is perverse. Of course it would. Why not extoll the great benefits of the union rather than scaremonger?
Malc - In your open honest and unbiased personal opinion what do you think the outcome will be? Clearly you're saying a YES - but by how much?
Patrick, putting me on the spot. I think the lies this week will change some people's mind , my own daughter is wobbling re finances , mortgages etc, but overall it will have hardened opinions to YES. Th emillionaire MP's taking a day trip, Effete Westminster party leaders talking to selected groups behind locked doors and dullards like Brown and Farage trying to feel important will all drive people to Yes. I think in region of 55% YES is a reasonable number, but the sense of optimism may really change things.
Malcolm , I support yes , but the reports put about by likes of the Deutsche Bank are scary stuff so close to the last crisis. I imagine it would make some people twitch a bit. I believe there will be a currency union, to stop a crisis after a yes vote. The markets will not let them have a cosy chat about it for 2 years.
Question is will Georgie Porgy have to announce it before the vote or can he hang on till Friday.
Malcolm if there is a yes vote, it will not be a rushed announcement on the steps of the treasury, similar to Lamont and a young bag carrying Cameron. It will be already rehearsed in a very formal manner to offer reassurance.
There will be an announcement sure to say " business as usual till actual independence BoE stands behind all current UK institutions till separation details are finalised etc etc blah blah". Fair enough. But that's not a future CU after independence.
A vast amount of water will go under the bridge in negotiations but I think it!s political suicide south of the border to agree a CU post actual independence. Or at least without an rUK referendum and I cannot see it passing that.
It will be agreed same as a timetable for Trident which will not go down well in Scotland. They are two cheeks of the same arse and a deal with a fixed timescale will have to be done by both sides. 2020 is the likely timescale for both.
Malc - In your open honest and unbiased personal opinion what do you think the outcome will be? Clearly you're saying a YES - but by how much?
I think in region of 55% YES is a reasonable number
Nah. You're gonna be eating that humble pie and a pint of finest English cider.
(and then those nasty English Westminster elite will equalise spending across the UK and hang a 90ft wide portrait of Maggie from Edinburgh Castle for all on Princes Street to admire) ;-)
Patrick , I would enjoy the pie and cider , however if NO a 90ft Maggie picture will be the least of the retributions we can expect, we will for sure if that is the outcome be punished big time for being uppity and then spineless and will deserve it totally.
Yup. Serve you right for even thinking a country with no currency and 'a reckoning' with the world of business is anything other than batshit insane. Alanbrooke is spot on. Scotland has paraded itself in front of the world and you look like a herd of yammering monkeys. Throwing poo at each other and at mummy.
I have made sure my staff know that we are a company built on the union and we have been eliminating any suppliers from the opposing camp. I just stopped a contract with a guy we had done business with for over 10 years worth £30k. Not much but it is about a third of his income.
I don't have a dog in the Scottish independence fight but is that legal? Either way I don't know about anyone else but I wouldn't want to do business with someone who tried to bully me over my political opinions.
Sounds like a real nasty piece of work
Probably a lucky escape for the contractor over the long term. That's if the story's real, which I doubt. More likely made up by somebody with an agenda on one side or the other.
Malc - In your open honest and unbiased personal opinion what do you think the outcome will be? Clearly you're saying a YES - but by how much?
Patrick, putting me on the spot. I think the lies this week will change some people's mind , my own daughter is wobbling re finances , mortgages etc, but overall it will have hardened opinions to YES. Th emillionaire MP's taking a day trip, Effete Westminster party leaders talking to selected groups behind locked doors and dullards like Brown and Farage trying to feel important will all drive people to Yes. I think in region of 55% YES is a reasonable number, but the sense of optimism may really change things.
Malcolm , I support yes , but the reports put about by likes of the Deutsche Bank are scary stuff so close to the last crisis. I imagine it would make some people twitch a bit. I believe there will be a currency union, to stop a crisis after a yes vote. The markets will not let them have a cosy chat about it for 2 years.
Question is will Georgie Porgy have to announce it before the vote or can he hang on till Friday.
Malcolm if there is a yes vote, it will not be a rushed announcement on the steps of the treasury, similar to Lamont and a young bag carrying Cameron. It will be already rehearsed in a very formal manner to offer reassurance.
There will be an announcement sure to say " business as usual till actual independence BoE stands behind all current UK institutions till separation details are finalised etc etc blah blah". Fair enough. But that's not a future CU after independence.
A vast amount of water will go under the bridge in negotiations but I think it!s political suicide south of the border to agree a CU post actual independence. Or at least without an rUK referendum and I cannot see it passing that.
It will be agreed same as a timetable for Trident which will not go down well in Scotland. They are two cheeks of the same arse and a deal with a fixed timescale will have to be done by both sides. 2020 is the likely timescale for both.
So just to be clear - you do not expect Scotland to be in a currency union with rUK post 2020?
Malc - In your open honest and unbiased personal opinion what do you think the outcome will be? Clearly you're saying a YES - but by how much?
Patrick, putting me on the spot. I think the lies this week will change some people's mind , my own daughter is wobbling re finances , mortgages etc, but overall it will have hardened opinions to YES. Th emillionaire MP's taking a day trip, Effete Westminster party leaders talking to selected groups behind locked doors and dullards like Brown and Farage trying to feel important will all drive people to Yes. I think in region of 55% YES is a reasonable number, but the sense of optimism may really change things.
Malcolm , I support yes , but the reports put about by likes of the Deutsche Bank are scary stuff so close to the last crisis. I imagine it would make some people twitch a bit. I believe there will be a currency union, to stop a crisis after a yes vote. The markets will not let them have a cosy chat about it for 2 years.
Eh? We already have a currency union. There isn't one to be created the day after a "yes" vote. And as the experience of Czechrep-Slovakia show the markets can break a currency union, and definitely if there isn't the political will to protect it. It's outside possible the outcome of a yes vote could be to bring Scottish independence forward significantly with almost all major issues to be determined later...
Alex I realise we have a currency union now, but after a yes vote , there will have to be some quick announcements on the way forward . There will be a deal to be done, to avert a crisis, effecting the whole of these Isles.
Politicians can "quickly announce" what they like, and i don't think it's remotely likely that one of these "announcements" will be agreement to a currency union post independence. And anyway you can't write the conditions for a currency union between two independent countries on the back of an envelope.
We could have the first instance of a currency union breaking up within a unitary state! Which means Scottish independence within months, not years.
I agree it will not be years. The B of E will announce the timetable of negotiations, and re state everything is the same until these are complete. They will reiterate all the current guarantees.
Well yes (although even that will hold or not is speculation if money floods out of Scotland). This (a "business as usual until independence" announcement) is clearly nothing like what MalcolmG's mind is imagining.
Malc - In your open honest and unbiased personal opinion what do you think the outcome will be? Clearly you're saying a YES - but by how much?
I think in region of 55% YES is a reasonable number
Nah. You're gonna be eating that humble pie and a pint of finest English cider.
(and then those nasty English Westminster elite will equalise spending across the UK and hang a 90ft wide portrait of Maggie from Edinburgh Castle for all on Princes Street to admire) ;-)
Patrick , I would enjoy the pie and cider , however if NO a 90ft Maggie picture will be the least of the retributions we can expect, we will for sure if that is the outcome be punished big time for being uppity and then spineless and will deserve it totally.
Yup. Serve you right for even thinking a country with no currency and 'a reckoning' with the world of business is anything other than batshit insane. Alanbrooke is spot on. Scotland has paraded itself in front of the world and you look like a herd of yammering monkeys. Throwing poo at each other and at mummy.
Malc - In your open honest and unbiased personal opinion what do you think the outcome will be? Clearly you're saying a YES - but by how much?
Patrick, putting me on the spot. I think the lies this week will change some people's mind , my own daughter is wobbling re finances , mortgages etc, but overall it will have hardened opinions to YES. Th emillionaire MP's taking a day trip, Effete Westminster party leaders talking to selected groups behind locked doors and dullards like Brown and Farage trying to feel important will all drive people to Yes. I think in region of 55% YES is a reasonable number, but the sense of optimism may really change things.
Malcolm , I support yes , but the reports put about by likes of the Deutsche Bank are scary stuff so close to the last crisis. I imagine it would make some people twitch a bit. I believe there will be a currency union, to stop a crisis after a yes vote. The markets will not let them have a cosy chat about it for 2 years.
Question is will Georgie Porgy have to announce it before the vote or can he hang on till Friday.
Malcolm if there is a yes vote, it will not be a rushed announcement on the steps of the treasury, similar to Lamont and a young bag carrying Cameron. It will be already rehearsed in a very formal manner to offer reassurance.
There will be an announcement sure to say " business as usual till actual independence BoE stands behind all current UK institutions till separation details are finalised etc etc blah blah". Fair enough. But that's not a future CU after independence.
A vast amount of water will go under the bridge in negotiations but I think it!s political suicide south of the border to agree a CU post actual independence. Or at least without an rUK referendum and I cannot see it passing that.
It will be agreed same as a timetable for Trident which will not go down well in Scotland. They are two cheeks of the same arse and a deal with a fixed timescale will have to be done by both sides. 2020 is the likely timescale for both.
So just to be clear - you do not expect Scotland to be in a currency union with rUK post 2020?
I personally don't think so but obviously it will not be up to me.
@Alanbrooke RBS screwed up the same way as the rest of the companies world wide, they got drunk on greed and power. It is the natural conclusion to the "free market", then we all start the merry go round once again.
That great UK bank run from London was leading the charge
LOL make your mind up, one minute they're a scottish bank bluffing about leaving and upsetting Salmond, the next they're an english bank.
Alan they are a global bank currently contracting back to a UK bank , they have not been Scottish for many many years and they are not an English bank either.
In which the UK govt is an 81% shareholder and where Scotland's balance sheet is smaller than theirs, so they'll go. Why Salmond's pretending otherwise is plain pathetic.
And the other big banks and pension cos will go too.
Alan, heard it all before, it will be a paper move, RBS are already in London , they will keep their Scottish function as it is significantly cheaper than having it in London, the top brass will remain as ever in London and may give up their annual visit to Edinburgh at best.
Nonsense there are 100,000 finance sector jobs in Scotland and you'll lose about half of them.
Nats wittering on about brass plates ignore the people, for example, who administer my pensions or the 1000 or so who work in RBS HQ. But it's always easy to wipe out someone else's job when you don't have to worry about your own.
I have made sure my staff know that we are a company built on the union and we have been eliminating any suppliers from the opposing camp. I just stopped a contract with a guy we had done business with for over 10 years worth £30k. Not much but it is about a third of his income.
I don't have a dog in the Scottish independence fight but is that legal? Either way I don't know about anyone else but I wouldn't want to do business with someone who tried to bully me over my political opinions.
Sounds like a real nasty piece of work
Probably a lucky escape for the contractor over the long term. That's if the story's real, which I doubt. More likely made up by somebody with an agenda on one side or the other.
Hard to believe anyone who ran a business that way could ever be successful, though it is Lanarkshire so more likely he found out the contractor had Irish ancestors.
@Alanbrooke RBS screwed up the same way as the rest of the companies world wide, they got drunk on greed and power. It is the natural conclusion to the "free market", then we all start the merry go round once again.
That great UK bank run from London was leading the charge
LOL make your mind up, one minute they're a scottish bank bluffing about leaving and upsetting Salmond, the next they're an english bank.
Alan they are a global bank currently contracting back to a UK bank , they have not been Scottish for many many years and they are not an English bank either.
In which the UK govt is an 81% shareholder and where Scotland's balance sheet is smaller than theirs, so they'll go. Why Salmond's pretending otherwise is plain pathetic.
And the other big banks and pension cos will go too.
Alan, heard it all before, it will be a paper move, RBS are already in London , they will keep their Scottish function as it is significantly cheaper than having it in London, the top brass will remain as ever in London and may give up their annual visit to Edinburgh at best.
Nonsense there are 100,000 finance sector jobs in Scotland and you'll lose about half of them.
Nats wittering on about brass plates ignore the people, for example, who administer my pensions or the 1000 or so who work in RBS HQ. But it's always easy to wipe out someone else's job when you don't have to worry about your own.
Alan, who knows what could happen to my own once I am a foreigner. However I still do not believe all the hype or doom and gloom , jobs come and go all the time so what will be will be. We have had hundreds of thousands of jobs removed due to decisions by Westminster so doing it ourselves is no different. We will do all right regardless.
It is extraordinary that my country is about to broken up on the back of a tissue of false claims and lies. The Westminster parties enabled the conditions under which the SNP has been able to thrive, but the bottom line is that the SNP is being almost entirely deceitful in what it is saying about Scotland post-independence. Once those untruths are exposed, as they undoubtedly will be post 18th September, the SNP will never be forgiven. They will have led Scotland into penury on the back of a false prospectus. And here's the thing: they do not care.
I do not doubt the sincerity of the vast majority of Yes voters. They genuinely believe they are choosing a better future and that breaking up the Union will be worth it. But the SNP's leadership - they know exactly what they are doing. As I have said all along, it's about winning the vote. Nothing else matters. The problems, the economic hardships, the falling living standards do not bother nationalists - the frontier and the flag are everything.
Just five days now until the UK begins to break apart. These are tumultuous times. And we are all powerless to prevent the country our grandparents fought for, the country we were born into, disappear. The anger that is going to cause in the rUK will be intense and very slow to fade.
This one had past me by, but apparently last week Osborne announced a competition to design the new £1 coin. If you read the competition blurb the Mint wants a design that encapsulates Britain. This could get interesting after next week....
Comments
The regions of England and city and rural areas are very different. The Tories are not that strong in parts of London, Birmingham and Manchester. If England were to have their own parliament, there is no reason why the Tories would dominate, holding a majority most of the time. I think the Blair government held a majority of English seats in 1997 and 2001. So it is possible that Labour could form the government holding a majority in terms of English seats.
It would not be a good idea for the Tories to campaign as the English party, as they have long been the unionist party. Plus many people living in England might be put off by a party that decides to put forward nationalistic interests of England against the other countries of the UK. You can't under estimate the number of people living in England, who come from a non-English background.
twitter.com/DerecThompson/status/510449449962053632/photo/1
(actually, I thought it was "Us, Alone" but it's near enough)
(and then those nasty English Westminster elite will equalise spending across the UK and hang a 90ft wide portrait of Maggie from Edinburgh Castle for all on Princes Street to admire) ;-)
I've got to say in this last week or so Brand Scotland has been trashed, shat on and passed through the shredder. Sad.
I doubt it, at least in a world wide sense, slightly more tarnished in England, but it always was for many. (refer back to the comments before the debate really kicked off)
My overall point is there is now and will be increasing awareness of the WLQ. Today, Scottish MP's should not be voting on England only issues and Labour have only got away with it as its a dirty little Westminster secret. Its only going to become a bigger issue as Scotland either departs or gets more localised power.
I believe there will be a currency union, to stop a crisis after a yes vote.
The markets will not let them have a cosy chat about it for 2 years.
Only in the mind of Tories Alan, we will survive , vote YES and confound those grasping gong seekers who are currently licking Dave's erchie
Nick, you are a nice guy but you are English and don't get Scotland. I run a company in the middle of the battlezone. My staff come from areas such as Coatbridge, Motherwell and Larkhall. This election has reignited old battles and several of my staff have actively stop speaking to each other. I have made sure my staff know that we are a company built on the union and we have been eliminating any suppliers from the opposing camp. I just stopped a contract with a guy we had done business with for over 10 years worth £30k. Not much but it is about a third of his income. The scars from this referendum will live on for a long time.
That being said I think the polls are generally accurate but may be missing a few things. I am not convinced that weightings based on Scottish 2011 election are that useful. They consistently move the Yes vote up by about 3-4%. The No vote also includes the young, the English students, rural and the transient which may not be fully caught in the polls.
You don't trade much with most of the world you do about 85% of your trade with England, the people whose opinion you think doesn't count for much.
Business is forgiving if a profit is made.
"Scotland can promise that the pound will remain the currency of Scotland. It cannot promise a currency union, however. That takes two parties. Even if the government of the remaining UK is prepared to countenance such a union, there should be a referendum. The only satisfactory terms for the residual UK will be ones that impose very tight limits on the fiscal deficits Scotland can run. It must also insist that financial regulation will be run by the Bank of England, which would nonetheless remain accountable to the UK state alone."
"Friday will be a great day for Scotland. "
Yes, the relief of stopping banging your head off a brick wall will be fantastic.
So businesses worry more about losing their money that a few extra bucks.
At least you're explaining how RBS screwed up.
It's beginning to remind me of the Y2K farce.
Three things stand out re intimidation and other issues:
1. They treat the Sillars affair briefly - very much as an overview of current debate.
2. The Scottish Review of Books is out today with the usual free copy in the Herald, and the journalist Kevin McKenna has written an indyref diary for it which is noticeably more personal than what he does for the pro-Union Graun. It's not online free yet AFAIK, but he makes two interesting points (IIRC he's a former firm No who has migrated somewhat towards Yes, but he can usually be relied upon to be idiosyncratic and often somewhat Irish in his perspective):
a. BT forced his being dropped from chairing a public indy debate because they didn't like him. Well, well.
b. He plainly reckons that BT are vastly over the top in their claims of intimidation - and that no such thing is happening (the odd egg and some heckling apart), and indeed other countries are observing this referendum with approbation. Indeed he suggests the polis would be better spending their time warning Blair McDougall and his team about their inciting unrest by using intemperate language.
He also notes that turnout is an issue in deciding the vote, given the likelihood of new voters voting Yes (or so he reckons). Given the No campaign warnings of "utter carnage" a polling stations, his acid comment is: "Surely, though, the No camp would not stoop to the point where they are actively trying to dissuade people from voting by scaring them?".
3. And the Archbishop of St Andrews approves of the tone of indyref -
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/cleric-heartened-by-cordial-tone-of-the-referendum-debate.25313021
McKenna goes so far as to call the No campaign warnings of polling station carnage "desperate propaganda". I simply do not get that sense of intimidation going on either - as opposed to robust comment - and the lack of specific documented examples - like the broken windows in the block of flats adduced earlier today - goes to support this sense.
The Communist Party,once hugely influential in Scotland, has spoken."Everyone knows that this is not a national struggle but a class struggle"-take that SNP capitalists-and also says "What would Scottish “White Paper” independence do? Precisely the opposite of what the realities of class struggle demand. It would leave the British capitalist class and all its institutions intact and strengthened, and would organisationally divide and fragment the working-class movement making co-ordinated, generalised and solidarity action even more difficult across the newly drawn national border.
It would leave Scotland with the current domination of its industry and financial services by international monopoly companies.
It would keep the pound and the current monetary set up, with Bank of England oversight of taxation and borrowing.
It would maintain spending cuts and austerity, with the promise of even greater corporation tax cuts and business tax “incentives.”
It would see the seamless continuation of the malevolent all-pervasive control by the City of London. There is no indication of a repeal of anti-union laws. Even the monarchy stays, God bless them!
All this would be enthusiastically reinforced by the European Union and its “austerity police.”
and concludes."But such despair and frustration must not result in the desperate grasping at “easy answers” such as the illusions offered by nationalists — easy answers that are in fact a trap that would strengthen capitalism and weaken our class throughout Scotland, Wales and England."
http://www.morningstaronline.co.uk/a-f155-Yes-or-No,-the-City-and-EU-will-still-call-the-shots-on-Sep-19#.VBP-OfldVSg
RBS screwed up the same way as the rest of the companies world wide, they got drunk on greed and power.
It is the natural conclusion to the "free market", then we all start the merry go round once again.
Exactly what I thought of the judge and the verdict.
It would appear that BT's "fear-mongering" has largely failed. Yes Scotland has convinced most people that independence will make no practical difference, which I a weird position to take, if you think about it. Their claim that the NHS will be protected, albeit nonsense is part of that no change theme, along with John Swinney's often repeated claim that no country has ever entered independence more prosperous (yeah, but where do we end up?)
PS , hopefully you stick it out , you need to really have thick skin to suffer the brickbats on here, it really is a nasty place apart from a few shining exceptions.
There will be a deal to be done, to avert a crisis, effecting the whole of these Isles.
It wasn't just them, and the city where they do business from is also unimportant.
It is the philosophy behind it that made a crash certain.
While capitalism can make progress at an impressive speed, the wheels continually fall off, and sometimes catastrophically.
That's what economists mean by cycles, when the wheel comes loose somebody gets hurt.
We could have the first instance of a currency union breaking up within a unitary state! Which means Scottish independence within months, not years.
It will be already rehearsed in a very formal manner to offer reassurance.
This version? And do you know who wrote the song and why?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ocnwjoxfoB4
www.youtube.com/watch?v=nsRzO18nM8A
I had a poke around. What you have in that link is the mobey-optimised version. Clicking on the link to the desktop optimised version gives a different piece, which is much more pukka Gardhamiana, and this is the one in my dead tree version.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/comment/columnists/all-to-play-for-in-the-final-days-of-debate.25291381
When I try the first sentence of "your" piece in the Herald search engine I get it OK on the search list, complete with Mr G as author, but it morphs to the pukka Gardham piece as above when I actually go to it.
Maybe someone else's piece has been ditched at the last minute - but even so it's a good joke to see Mr G's name on top of it.
And the other big banks and pension cos will go too.
The B of E will announce the timetable of negotiations, and re state everything is the same until
these are complete. They will reiterate all the current guarantees.
The difference here is that it's a lot harder to do that kind of work. In all probability, talk of a Great Depression is excessive. However, if there is no agreement on a transitional currency union, it's entirely plausible - and without an agreement on national debt, I don't think there will be any form of currency union. Reaching agreement on splitting the debt is absolutely critical for Scotland: much more so than it would be for rUK.
Basically, imagine Scotland becoming independent without foreign reserves, without a central bank and without domestic banks (as they relocate to England). That will cause a severe restraint on liquidity. Not an outright blockage but a restriction nonetheless. Add in the pause in investment, the likely reduction in trade and other likely non-productive costs independence would impose, and it's not impossible to see a recession as a very likely outcome; certainly north of the border, possibly south too. Both sides would see an increase in interest rates. In Scotland, they could be extremely expensive if the markets take the view that the government had defaulted. True, not servicing pre-independence debt would be an advantage but it would be rapidly wiped out by the disadvantages of such a move, never mind the lasting resentment such an acrimonious split would produce in England.
A post-referendum, pre-independence Scottish government would have to do a deal on debt. The price they should be able to extract would be a limited currency union (I'd suggest 36 months max, so it's closed down before the 2020 election). That union would broadly be on the rUK's terms (e.g. financial regulation from London, Scotland to absorb its share of debt within the timeframe of the currency union), but would provide a far smoother transition than would otherwise be the case. The danger is that Salmond overplays his hand and the thing comes crashing down, in which case a depression is a realistic outcome.
It graphically illustrates what this referendum is doing to the fabric of his country.
Enjoyed reading your post.
A vast amount of water will go under the bridge in negotiations but I think it!s political suicide south of the border to agree a CU post actual independence. Or at least without an rUK referendum and I cannot see it passing that.
twitter.com/heraldscotland/status/510712339742883840
I quite like the chap who said he'd been about to resubscribe till he got the tweet!
Nats wittering on about brass plates ignore the people, for example, who administer my pensions or the 1000 or so who work in RBS HQ. But it's always easy to wipe out someone else's job when you don't have to worry about your own.
youtu.be/LNMVMNmrqJE
The pundits have Glasgow to vote Yes
The polls say (excluding undecideds):
Survation - 45.5% Yes
ICM - 49% Yes
Could @shadsy clear up what he considers Glasgow?
However I still do not believe all the hype or doom and gloom , jobs come and go all the time so what will be will be. We have had hundreds of thousands of jobs removed due to decisions by Westminster so doing it ourselves is no different. We will do all right regardless.
I do not doubt the sincerity of the vast majority of Yes voters. They genuinely believe they are choosing a better future and that breaking up the Union will be worth it. But the SNP's leadership - they know exactly what they are doing. As I have said all along, it's about winning the vote. Nothing else matters. The problems, the economic hardships, the falling living standards do not bother nationalists - the frontier and the flag are everything.
Just five days now until the UK begins to break apart. These are tumultuous times. And we are all powerless to prevent the country our grandparents fought for, the country we were born into, disappear. The anger that is going to cause in the rUK will be intense and very slow to fade.
http://www.royalmint.com/newonepoundcoin