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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » GE2015 polling should be put on one side so the focus for next next 2 weeks can be Scotland

A fortnight tomorrow a massive election is taking place north of the border. The turnout is expected to be greater than just about any other election that we’ve seen in Britain in recent times and the outcome, either way, will have huge consequence.

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Slackbladder

Agreed. If we get a YES vote all the polling to date is moot anyway.

Bond_James_Bond

Of course, we could get a Yes vote, inshallah.

Equally, Prince Philip may stick a cricket bat up his bottom, pour treacle over his head and declare himself to be a toffee apple.

Neil

"we urgently need more polling"

I suspect we'll get some but if we didnt I'm sure we'd survive.

Itajai

I am not yet convinced YES are ahead or will win. But there is evidently a certain amount of panic in the NO camp. Squeaky bum time and all that.

Bring on the polls - either to sow more panic or steady the ship.

Theuniondivvie

Isn't it more interesting as to why there hasn't been polling? According to UKPolling report there were 8 indy polls in the first 2 weeks of August.

It's a non-partisan point as both sides appear to be holding off.

TGOHF

Without polls how can we trade large swings on betfair ?

TheScreamingEagles

Why do we need polls when we have all those canvass returns ?

TGOHF

Salmond turning on the media..

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11072166/Alex-Salmond-refuses-three-times-to-name-independent-Scotlands-long-term-currency-without-shared-pound.html


Asked by The Telegraph to name the currency he would transition to during Q&A session with journalists on Tuesday, Mr Salmond repeatedly refused to name his preferred option and ended up criticising the line of questioning.

Neil

TGOHF said:

Salmond turning on the media..

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11072166/Alex-Salmond-refuses-three-times-to-name-independent-Scotlands-long-term-currency-without-shared-pound.html


Asked by The Telegraph to name the currency he would transition to during Q&A session with journalists on Tuesday, Mr Salmond repeatedly refused to name his preferred option and ended up criticising the line of questioning.

Unionist press doesnt like nationalist politician. Tune in tomorrow for our coverage of the sun rising in the east.

Richard_Nabavi

Yes, these polling companies are a disgrace. Don't they realise their primary duty is to provide political punters with the opportunity of fleecing the bookies?

jimmyczz

There has been polling and it shows a Yes lead, hence the panic that has started in the No camp. There has been a huge shift on the ground in Scotland in the last few weeks. There were queues in many towns and cities yesterday of people registering to vote. Unheard of!

Slackbladder

TGOHF said:

Salmond turning on the media..

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11072166/Alex-Salmond-refuses-three-times-to-name-independent-Scotlands-long-term-currency-without-shared-pound.html


Asked by The Telegraph to name the currency he would transition to during Q&A session with journalists on Tuesday, Mr Salmond repeatedly refused to name his preferred option and ended up criticising the line of questioning.

As important as the currency question is, it's been done to death enough. There's nothing 'new' to be found there.

There's enough other aspects and consquences of independence which should be discussed and which haven't been.

TheScreamingEagles

Neil said:

TGOHF said:

Salmond turning on the media..

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11072166/Alex-Salmond-refuses-three-times-to-name-independent-Scotlands-long-term-currency-without-shared-pound.html


Asked by The Telegraph to name the currency he would transition to during Q&A session with journalists on Tuesday, Mr Salmond repeatedly refused to name his preferred option and ended up criticising the line of questioning.

Unionist press doesnt like nationalist politician. Tune in tomorrow for our coverage of the sun rising in the east.

Showing your true Nat colours again

Alanbrooke

Another fortnight of this and I'll begin to see things from General Wade's perspective.

Neil

jimmyczz said:

There has been polling and it shows a Yes lead

Is the firm that polls the voices in your head a member of the BPC?

Hugh

There have been some rumours flying round of quite a few polls comissioned but left unpublished.

Smarmeron

FPT
@Richard_Nabavi

Long hair and a beard are a sure sign of guilt, and a suit and tie are proof of innocence?
You should become a detective with such reasoning. (and be fast tracked to the higher echelons as rapidly as possible)

Hugh

Anyway, this is quite refreshing I think.

Too often polling is used to set the agenda and the campaigns get lost in the noise.

Richard_Nabavi

Smarmeron said:

FPT
@Richard_Nabavi

Long hair and a beard are a sure sign of guilt, and a suit and tie are proof of innocence?
You should become a detective with such reasoning. (and be fast tracked to the higher echelons as rapidly as possible)

Dunno about guilt, but long hair and a beard certainly seem to be sure signs of a lack of a sense of humour!

Theuniondivvie

Alanbrooke said:

Another fortnight of this and I'll begin to see things from General Wade's perspective.

You mean helping to build a decent road network in Scotland?

Slackbladder

Hugh said:

There have been some rumours flying round of quite a few polls comissioned but left unpublished.

There 's a few rumours Elvis and Lord Lucan are hanging out with Shergar in Shangli-La as well...

Put it this way...it would be odd if there 'weren't' these rumours.

OldKingCole

TGOHF said:

Without polls how can we trade large swings on betfair ?

And what are all those people now employed by the polling organisations to do?

The Government’s working hard to massage the unemployment figures down, and then some here want to add to them!

OblitusSumMe

Mike Smithson said:

The London-based national media appear to have had very little interest when it comes to commissioning IndyRef polls.

For the London-based national media Scotland is already a foreign country.

I almost expect to see the referendum result reported in the "International News" section of the London papers, but I guess they'll wake up when it's too late.

Neil

Richard_Nabavi said:

long hair and a beard certainly seem to be sure signs of a lack of a sense of humour

Certainly Jesus was no fun at all.

shadsy

Numbers of YES/NO posters in windows are a good substitute. YES landslide anticipated.

Hugh

Hugh said:

Anyway, this is quite refreshing I think.

Too often polling is used to set the agenda and the campaigns get lost in the noise.

Well we get people inventing polls that don't exist to back up their agenda (hi Dan)

Is it inconceivable that others might do the reverse - commission polls but sit on them because they don't like the results?

Edit. In reply to @Slackbladder not myself...

Slackbladder

Neil said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

long hair and a beard certainly seem to be sure signs of a lack of a sense of humour

Certainly Jesus was no fun at all.

Oh I don't know.. the water into wine party trick went down well.

Alanbrooke

Something for everyone in the latest GDP figures.

Lefties can cheer they didn't crash the car at quite the speed Righties said

Righties can cheer we were out of recession 9 months earlier.

Saddos can post yellow boxes ( where is he ? )

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/andrewlilico/100028021/a-few-thoughts-on-the-latest-gdp-revisions/

Neil

Slackbladder said:

Neil said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

long hair and a beard certainly seem to be sure signs of a lack of a sense of humour

Certainly Jesus was no fun at all.

Oh I don't know.. the water into wine party trick went down well.

He did it once! He could have done it every weekend but oh no.

shadsy

Here's a very astute post that someone put on my blog about polls - no real need for them:

"We all know from the 2011 manipulation of the polls that they are lying as not only have most of the No debating pages been overrun by Yes Twibbons as previously No supporters have changed side but the only people who are staunchly No anymore are those with links to the Orange Order. Their lying polls can’t hide the fact of what we are all seeing for ourselves on our own streets where there isn’t one single No poster in anyone’s window that I have witnessed. In comparison I was driving along a different route that I rarely take and I saw three houses not just with Yes posters in their windows but with great bloody big flagpoles with Saltires in their gardens."

MarkHopkins

Neil said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

long hair and a beard certainly seem to be sure signs of a lack of a sense of humour

Certainly Jesus was no fun at all.

Jesus would have had short hair (men's fashion at the time).

Neil

shadsy said:

Here's a very astute post that someone put on my blog about polls - no real need for them:

"We all know from the 2011 manipulation of the polls that they are lying as not only have most of the No debating pages been overrun by Yes Twibbons as previously No supporters have changed side but the only people who are staunchly No anymore are those with links to the Orange Order. Their lying polls can’t hide the fact of what we are all seeing for ourselves on our own streets where there isn’t one single No poster in anyone’s window that I have witnessed. In comparison I was driving along a different route that I rarely take and I saw three houses not just with Yes posters in their windows but with great bloody big flagpoles with Saltires in their gardens."

Spoof or deranged?

not_on_fire

Why do we "need" more polling? It is an expensive exercise, and if the national newspapers are not procuring polls, one assumes this is because it is not in their commercial interests to do so (i.e., their readership is not interested in the results.)

I'm sure a polling company will happily do a poll if the denizens of PB are willing to get out their chequebooks.

OblitusSumMe

Neil said:

TGOHF said:

Salmond turning on the media..

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11072166/Alex-Salmond-refuses-three-times-to-name-independent-Scotlands-long-term-currency-without-shared-pound.html


Asked by The Telegraph to name the currency he would transition to during Q&A session with journalists on Tuesday, Mr Salmond repeatedly refused to name his preferred option and ended up criticising the line of questioning.

Unionist press doesnt like nationalist politician. Tune in tomorrow for our coverage of the sun rising in the east.

Whatever happened to nuance?!

Looks to me as though the sun will rise nearly fifteen degrees north of east tomorrow morning in London.

Tykejohnno

FPT -

Roger said:


TykeJohnno

"Well you put the other side to the story then instead of smearing posters on here,thats all you have done since you have returned."

There isn't another side. To say anything on here or on the internet that makes Asian's or identifyable Muslims uncomfortable or worse is unacceptable. I don't mean to insult Socrates who seems very sincere just completely without empathy. Though it's got a long way to go how people can so quickly forget the events leading up to the pogroms in Rwanda let alone further back I can't imagine.

You going way over the top.

So to you,there isn't another side,so there right ? they is a discussion on PB about that story,just like we did with jimmy saville.

Get a grip man

Smarmeron

@Richard_Nabavi
It stopped being humorous about 40 years ago, and became a worry as too the intelligence, or lack thereof in society in general.
" You don't look like everyone else, so you are suspicious"
One of my friends used to get pulled up at the airport security constantly, and searched for drugs because he fitted an imaginary stereotype, while the smartly dressed drug mules were probably laughing their heads off

Slackbladder

I'll tell you one thing... the guys which have staked hundreds of thousands on a NO for a quick return on their money must be a little more nervous over the last few weeks...

That'll be one it'll be hard to tell the missus...

Philip_Thompson

I fail to see why the "London based media" should be commissioning polls. The media are private organisations that seek to make a profit and while there is intense interest north of the border I'm not sure by any means that the national media can make a profit or even recoup costs by doing so.

On the other hand there's a large number of Scottish-based media publications. Surely these are the ones that should be commissioning surveys? Surely their readership will be interested? If Scotland becomes independent who is going to commission their new national surveys afterwards?

Why can't the Scottish media survey the Scottish public?

Richard_Nabavi

Perhaps Lord A could step into the breach. Given that a Yes result would turn UK politics upside down, it seems a bit odd to be polling Clacton, marginals, or indeed national voting intention at the moment.

Stuart_Dickson

There is a very, very obvious reason for the sudden lack of IndyRef polls.

Punters beware!

Neil

Stuart_Dickson said:

There is a very, very obvious reason for the sudden lack of IndyRef polls.

Punters beware!

Go on, Stuart! Spit it out! You know you want to.

Socrates

Alanbrooke said:

Something for everyone in the latest GDP figures.

Lefties can cheer they didn't crash the car at quite the speed Righties said

Righties can cheer we were out of recession 9 months earlier.

Saddos can post yellow boxes ( where is he ? )

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/andrewlilico/100028021/a-few-thoughts-on-the-latest-gdp-revisions/

Why can't all news be provided in this format? Clear bullet points with just the notable facts of the story. Perfect.

Stuart_Dickson

CON plummetting in the Clacton market. Nick Palmer's tip to buy CON when they were at 13/2 must have been the kiss of death!

Clacton by-election - best prices

UKIP 1/9 (Hills)
Con 10/1 (Betfair)
85 bar

Goodness, at 10/1 even I'm a little tempted.

OblitusSumMe

Slackbladder said:

I'll tell you one thing... the guys which have staked hundreds of thousands on a NO for a quick return on their money must be a little more nervous over the last few weeks...

That'll be one it'll be hard to tell the missus...

Depends. They might be the sort of people for whom it would make a damn fine dinner party anecdote, without missing the money one iota, or they might be using the bookmakers to hedge some contingent trades they have made elsewhere - say on the assumption that Sterling would fall sharply following a YES vote.

Slackbladder

Stuart_Dickson said:

There is a very, very obvious reason for the sudden lack of IndyRef polls.

Punters beware!

But how do people know the polls are good for yes unless they do the poll??

I'm sooooo confused *head explodes*

PS I'd have though the Media would love a YES vote, tons of fights and news spinning out of that...

Neil

MarkHopkins said:

Neil said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

long hair and a beard certainly seem to be sure signs of a lack of a sense of humour

Certainly Jesus was no fun at all.

Jesus would have had short hair (men's fashion at the time).

Jesus didnt follow other men's rules!

Roger

"long hair and a beard certainly seem to be sure signs of a lack of a sense of humour "

Made me laugh.......

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2008/09/30/article-0-02D9493500000578-427_468x396.jpg

Garethofthevale

shadsy said:

Here's a very astute post that someone put on my blog about polls - no real need for them:

"We all know from the 2011 manipulation of the polls that they are lying as not only have most of the No debating pages been overrun by Yes Twibbons as previously No supporters have changed side but the only people who are staunchly No anymore are those with links to the Orange Order. Their lying polls can’t hide the fact of what we are all seeing for ourselves on our own streets where there isn’t one single No poster in anyone’s window that I have witnessed. In comparison I was driving along a different route that I rarely take and I saw three houses not just with Yes posters in their windows but with great bloody big flagpoles with Saltires in their gardens."

Personally, if I was living in Scotland, I think I would have got to the stage where I would tell anyone canvassing for yes that I was voting yes and anyone canvassing for no that I was voting no just so they would bloody well leave me in peace. I realise there are many passionate advocates on both sides but there must also be a section of the Scottish public who wish the whole thing was over already!

Stuart_Dickson

Neil said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

There is a very, very obvious reason for the sudden lack of IndyRef polls.

Punters beware!

Go on, Stuart! Spit it out! You know you want to.

I'm mildly impressed by my own self-restraint. I must be maturing.

dr_spyn

"long hair and a beard certainly seem to be sure signs of a lack of a sense of humour "

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2711368/Similar-beards-two-VERY-different-Englishmen-One-icon-Empire-The-s-pin-multicultural-Britain.html

Smarmeron

@Neil
The masters make the rules, for the wise men and the fools, I got nothing ma....to live up too....

Flightpath

Philip_Thompson said:

I fail to see why the "London based media" should be commissioning polls. The media are private organisations that seek to make a profit and while there is intense interest north of the border I'm not sure by any means that the national media can make a profit or even recoup costs by doing so.

On the other hand there's a large number of Scottish-based media publications. Surely these are the ones that should be commissioning surveys? Surely their readership will be interested? If Scotland becomes independent who is going to commission their new national surveys afterwards?

Why can't the Scottish media survey the Scottish public?

I could not agree more. Indeed since this is a Scottish affair I would have thought there would be resentment up there in London media polling. Why don't the bookies commission polls?

TheWatcher

Stuart_Dickson said:

There is a very, very obvious reason for the sudden lack of IndyRef polls.

Sheer boredom.

Neil

Stuart_Dickson said:

Neil said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

There is a very, very obvious reason for the sudden lack of IndyRef polls.

Punters beware!

Go on, Stuart! Spit it out! You know you want to.

I'm mildly impressed by my own self-restraint. I must be maturing.

Let's see what happens when the Lib Dems next get 2% in a constituency poll before we make any judgements.

FrancisUrquhart

"Answers are needed as to why Labour turned a blind eye to the systematic sexual abuse of hundreds of teenage girls by gangs of Pakistani men in Labour-led local authorities across the country. And Mr Miliband could do worse than start by talking to Simon Danczuk, the MP for Rochdale, another Labour council area where a child grooming scandal has been uncovered.

In a world where political correctness became more important than child rape, Mr Danczuk says that too many Labour politicians adopted the attitude of former Rotherham MP Denis MacShane who, in his own words, did not want to “rock the multicultural community boat”.

Even now, astonishingly, Mr Danczuk says he has been reprimanded by a fellow Labour MP for speaking out on the matter.

If this is still typical of attitudes within the party, it says little for Mr Miliband’s hopes of successfully holding to account all those Labour politicians who ignored warnings on this matter."

http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/debate/yp-comment/victims-failed-by-labour-1-6819202

Where as on the BBC, you would be hard pushed to even know it was a Labour council and that Miliband has next to said nothing on the issue. Compare and contrast with how some other politicians have been doorstepped on numerous occasions until they give comment.

TGOHF

Stuart_Dickson said:

There is a very, very obvious reason for the sudden lack of IndyRef polls.

Punters beware!

The lizards who control the secret oil fields have eaten them ?

Theuniondivvie

Garethofthevale said:

I realise there are many passionate advocates on both sides but there must also be a section of the Scottish public who wish the whole thing was over already!

That would be the No side. I get the impression many of them have reached the stage where they heartily detest the whole process.

isam

shadsy said:

Numbers of YES/NO posters in windows are a good substitute. YES landslide anticipated.

Are you going to do a betting without ukip market in Clacton?

To be fair that might be to uncompetitive as Con would be big odds on

How about ukip minus 25% Hcap?

Neil

The issue that both sides of the referendum debate refuse to address because of the explosive implications - will there have to be a Scottish Polling Council if there is a 'yes' vote?!

dr_spyn

Critical editorial in Yorkshire Post on Ed Miliband's inaction re Rotherham.
http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/debate/yp-comment/victims-failed-by-labour-1-6819202

DaemonBarber

Neil said:

Slackbladder said:

Neil said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

long hair and a beard certainly seem to be sure signs of a lack of a sense of humour

Certainly Jesus was no fun at all.

Oh I don't know.. the water into wine party trick went down well.

He did it once! He could have done it every weekend but oh no.

Well as any good illusionist knows, never repeat a trick.

TheWatcher

shadsy said:

Numbers of YES/NO posters in windows are a good substitute. YES landslide anticipated.

Perhaps 'No' supporters don't want their windows bricked by those 'Yes' voters inclined to throw eggs?

Casino_Royale

Given the level of abuse and intimidation that seems to be directed towards anyone who says they will vote NO in Scotland, I can understand why there aren't many NO posters up in people's houses. If I was living in Scotland, I wouldn't want a brick through my window.. Or worse. You'd have to be very brave. This is why we have a secret ballot, thank goodness.

Where I don't agree is on this silence not showing up in the polls - as Michael Forsyth claimed on R4 yesterday, again citing the 1992 GE. Polls are generally anonymous and confidential these days, through either phone or internet rather than face-to-face, and the sampling methodology pretty tight, so i suspect they're fairly accurate. There is still a slender NO lead.

A number of those who are NO are now probably staying publicly quiet, and/ or obfuscating when challenged by their more enthusiastic YES peers, but in the privacy of the voting booth will be free to make (and will make) their own decision.

That's certainly the case amongst the many Scots I'm working with in London together (now) who joke about it, or promptly change the subject whenever it comes up - particularly if several of them are in a room together.

The only ones making a big noise are the one or two who are publicly YES and can't wait to tell you either.

Charles

Neil said:

MarkHopkins said:

Neil said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

long hair and a beard certainly seem to be sure signs of a lack of a sense of humour

Certainly Jesus was no fun at all.

Jesus would have had short hair (men's fashion at the time).

Jesus didnt follow other men's rules!

You mean "Jesus didn't follow men's rules!". No "other" about it.

MaxPB

Can a Tory please explain why Dave has yet to order a full inquiry into Pakistani rape gangs operating in the country?

While the historical rapes are just as deplorable, they are historical, surely a criminal activity that is still ongoing deserves higher priority and it should not be watered down by being associated with historical crimes. So can a Labour person please explain why their Shadow Hom Sec is trying to link this organised crime to unrelated historical crimes, is the Labour party hoping to brush this under the carpet?

Neil

Charles said:

Neil said:

MarkHopkins said:

Neil said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

long hair and a beard certainly seem to be sure signs of a lack of a sense of humour

Certainly Jesus was no fun at all.

Jesus would have had short hair (men's fashion at the time).

Jesus didnt follow other men's rules!

You mean "Jesus didn't follow men's rules!". No "other" about it.

You believe what you want to believe, Charles.

Casino_Royale

Stuart_Dickson said:

There is a very, very obvious reason for the sudden lack of IndyRef polls.

Punters beware!

You think NO sympathising clients have commissioned a poll, received the initial results which show a YES lead, and are siting on it?

Or just not bothering commissioning any at all because they're scared at what it might say?

Neil

MaxPB said:

Can a Tory please explain why Dave has yet to order a full inquiry into Pakistani rape gangs operating in the country?

Oh he will. It will be an inquiry into Asian rape gangs but I'm sure you'll approve.

DaemonBarber

Casino_Royale said:

Given the level of abuse and intimidation that seems to be directed towards anyone who says they will vote NO in Scotland, I can understand why there aren't many NO posters up in people's houses. If I was living in Scotland, I wouldn't want a brick through my window.. Or worse. You'd have to be very brave. This is why we have a secret ballot, thank goodness.

Who/Where etc?
There was that instance of a shop displaying posters that had a large bin set alight outside in an apparent arson attack. Oh wait, that was a Yes posters...

nigel4england

dr_spyn said:

Critical editorial in Yorkshire Post on Ed Miliband's inaction re Rotherham.
http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/debate/yp-comment/victims-failed-by-labour-1-6819202

Hope the voters of South Yorkshire remember this next May.

TheWatcher

DaemonBarber said:

Casino_Royale said:

Given the level of abuse and intimidation that seems to be directed towards anyone who says they will vote NO in Scotland, I can understand why there aren't many NO posters up in people's houses. If I was living in Scotland, I wouldn't want a brick through my window.. Or worse. You'd have to be very brave. This is why we have a secret ballot, thank goodness.

Who/Where etc?
There was that instance of a shop displaying posters that had a large bin set alight outside in an apparent arson attack. Oh wait, that was a Yes posters...

The idiots that chucked eggs at Murphy - were they 'No'ers?

Itajai

When was the last time anyone heard anything from REd? He's certainly been invisible, even before the Labour-Rotherham scandal.

Either he's engaging on another IHT-avoidance wheeze (IHT being for plebs only) or, more likely, he's been told every time he's seen on TV another 10,000 votes get lost.

I wonder what they'll do during the actual GE campaign.

MaxPB

Neil said:

MaxPB said:

Can a Tory please explain why Dave has yet to order a full inquiry into Pakistani rape gangs operating in the country?

Oh he will. It will be an inquiry into Asian rape gangs but I'm sure you'll approve.

I had no idea you had joined the blue team Neil!

Flightpath

Alanbrooke said:

Something for everyone in the latest GDP figures.

Lefties can cheer they didn't crash the car at quite the speed Righties said

Righties can cheer we were out of recession 9 months earlier.

Saddos can post yellow boxes ( where is he ? )

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/andrewlilico/100028021/a-few-thoughts-on-the-latest-gdp-revisions/

But this is because it included illegal drugs and prostitution. Whilst its good to know the dockside hookers have been doing their bit for England (and Scotland!) just how does this estimate work for 1980? (indeed does it?)
If not then the relative recessions are not being properly compared. And how valid are these measurements of illegal activity?

What this shows is that sweating over 0.1% and tiny alleged double dips is truly pathetic.

Slackbladder

MaxPB said:

Neil said:

MaxPB said:

Can a Tory please explain why Dave has yet to order a full inquiry into Pakistani rape gangs operating in the country?

Oh he will. It will be an inquiry into Asian rape gangs but I'm sure you'll approve.

I had no idea you had joined the blue team Neil!

OT: Max, just to let you know 've joined the PS camp from the Xbox one... Got my PS4 coming on Tuesday with Destiny

Pulpstar

I reckon if this was a London Independence referendum there'd be alot more polls about !

DaemonBarber

TheWatcher said:

DaemonBarber said:

Casino_Royale said:

Given the level of abuse and intimidation that seems to be directed towards anyone who says they will vote NO in Scotland, I can understand why there aren't many NO posters up in people's houses. If I was living in Scotland, I wouldn't want a brick through my window.. Or worse. You'd have to be very brave. This is why we have a secret ballot, thank goodness.

Who/Where etc?
There was that instance of a shop displaying posters that had a large bin set alight outside in an apparent arson attack. Oh wait, that was a Yes posters...

The idiots that chucked eggs at Murphy - were they 'No'ers?

Ha!
HaHaHaHaHa!

Guffaw
and indeed Chortle.

Seriously? Politician gets egged! wow, these Yessers must be real cnuts!

The only >real< acts of violence that i've heard about have been perpetrated by loony right wingers in the No camp. (kicking a pregnant woman in the stomach, lobbing a chair from a balcony, hitting a kid with a broken bottle etc) not that you see any of that in the press/bbc. But an MP GET EGGED!

Wow, just wow...

Hugh

TGOHF said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

There is a very, very obvious reason for the sudden lack of IndyRef polls.

Punters beware!

The lizards who control the secret oil fields have eaten them ?

I'm sceptical myself.

But I wouldn't dismiss the idea out of hand, particularly as SD says if you're betting on the outcome.

malcolmg

TGOHF said:

Salmond turning on the media..

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11072166/Alex-Salmond-refuses-three-times-to-name-independent-Scotlands-long-term-currency-without-shared-pound.html


Asked by The Telegraph to name the currency he would transition to during Q&A session with journalists on Tuesday, Mr Salmond repeatedly refused to name his preferred option and ended up criticising the line of questioning.

Desperate ancient non news

Slackbladder

Pulpstar said:

I reckon if this was a London Independence referendum there'd be alot more polls about !

Can us softies in the South East also get in with London as well? ta muchly

isam

Douglas Carswell (@DouglasCarswell)
03/09/2014 12:17
Tim Walker of @Telegraph texts to ask if it is true that "you had a stroke some years ago". Seriously. This is the level of briefing in SW1

malcolmg

Theuniondivvie said:

Alanbrooke said:

Another fortnight of this and I'll begin to see things from General Wade's perspective.

You mean helping to build a decent road network in Scotland?

He must be for YES then

Bond_James_Bond

Neil said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

long hair and a beard certainly seem to be sure signs of a lack of a sense of humour

Certainly Jesus was no fun at all.

Ooh I don't know. The water into wine thing was hilarious.

Tight father of the bride offers Canaa wedding guests crummy second rate wine. And not a lot of it, either. When it runs out, Jesus goes down to the cellar and sees tier upon tier of unbroached casks.

"Wassss in 'ose then?" he demands suspiciously, hiccuping.

"In those? Er...er...water! Yes, that's it...water," explains the FotB.

"Definitely not wine?"

"Nope. No way. Water."

"Orrrrrright....I declare it to be wine. Abracadabra!" retorts Jesus.

Disciples crack open a barrel. "You know what, Jesus? It is wine too - and iss a lot better than that p>ss we been drinking till now! Isss a bl00dy miracle!"

"Yeah. Right. A miracle", mutters the FotB, clutching his wallet in anguish.

Cracking prank.

malcolmg

Neil said:

shadsy said:

Here's a very astute post that someone put on my blog about polls - no real need for them:

"We all know from the 2011 manipulation of the polls that they are lying as not only have most of the No debating pages been overrun by Yes Twibbons as previously No supporters have changed side but the only people who are staunchly No anymore are those with links to the Orange Order. Their lying polls can’t hide the fact of what we are all seeing for ourselves on our own streets where there isn’t one single No poster in anyone’s window that I have witnessed. In comparison I was driving along a different route that I rarely take and I saw three houses not just with Yes posters in their windows but with great bloody big flagpoles with Saltires in their gardens."

Spoof or deranged?

Looks as accurate a poll as the other rubbish we see

Casino_Royale

TheWatcher said:

shadsy said:

Numbers of YES/NO posters in windows are a good substitute. YES landslide anticipated.

Perhaps 'No' supporters don't want their windows bricked by those 'Yes' voters inclined to throw eggs?

In almost all the Lib Dem/Con marginal seats I've (in the past) fought in, the Liberal Democrats have routinely outpostered the Tories every time. By some margin. The Tories still won.

I recall one old lady who had a yellow "winning here" diamond in her front garden *and* a Conservative poster in her window.

When we canvassed and asked her about this peculiar state of affairs she said a Lib Dem campaign team had been around and very forcefully asked if they could place it in her garden, as it was on the street corner.

She said she felt too frightened to say 'no', but had no intention of voting Lib Dem in the election.

Some (admittedly not all) posters can represent community social peer pressure, nothing more. Would you want to be the only house in some streets not displaying a YES poster?

No, thought not.

MaxPB

Slackbladder said:

MaxPB said:

Neil said:

MaxPB said:

Can a Tory please explain why Dave has yet to order a full inquiry into Pakistani rape gangs operating in the country?

Oh he will. It will be an inquiry into Asian rape gangs but I'm sure you'll approve.

I had no idea you had joined the blue team Neil!

OT: Max, just to let you know 've joined the PS camp from the Xbox one... Got my PS4 coming on Tuesday with Destiny

Awesome. So far the PS4 is a bit disappointing, but it really ramps up with Destiny and Driveclub.

Pulpstar

Slackbladder said:

Pulpstar said:

I reckon if this was a London Independence referendum there'd be alot more polls about !

Can us softies in the South East also get in with London as well? ta muchly

No - Antifrank has made it very clear that London should be for Londoners only. Of course anyone can become a Londoner but you do have to either live or work in London.

The M25 will be the border.

Financier

Flightpath said:

Alanbrooke said:

Something for everyone in the latest GDP figures.

Lefties can cheer they didn't crash the car at quite the speed Righties said

Righties can cheer we were out of recession 9 months earlier.

Saddos can post yellow boxes ( where is he ? )

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/andrewlilico/100028021/a-few-thoughts-on-the-latest-gdp-revisions/

But this is because it included illegal drugs and prostitution. Whilst its good to know the dockside hookers have been doing their bit for England (and Scotland!) just how does this estimate work for 1980? (indeed does it?)
If not then the relative recessions are not being properly compared. And how valid are these measurements of illegal activity?

What this shows is that sweating over 0.1% and tiny alleged double dips is truly pathetic.

And how many august institutions have an unwitting share in the drugs and prostitution industries worth £141.7bn to the UK economy (1997-2012) ? Perhaps a few PBers may have made lucrative but unwise investments?

Sean_F

shadsy said:

Here's a very astute post that someone put on my blog about polls - no real need for them:

"We all know from the 2011 manipulation of the polls that they are lying as not only have most of the No debating pages been overrun by Yes Twibbons as previously No supporters have changed side but the only people who are staunchly No anymore are those with links to the Orange Order. Their lying polls can’t hide the fact of what we are all seeing for ourselves on our own streets where there isn’t one single No poster in anyone’s window that I have witnessed. In comparison I was driving along a different route that I rarely take and I saw three houses not just with Yes posters in their windows but with great bloody big flagpoles with Saltires in their gardens."

That's a bit like De Valera only having to look within his heart to know what the Irish people were thinking.

Alanbrooke

Theuniondivvie said:

Alanbrooke said:

Another fortnight of this and I'll begin to see things from General Wade's perspective.

You mean helping to build a decent road network in Scotland?

Dig him up and set him to work on the A9.

malcolmg

Philip_Thompson said:

I fail to see why the "London based media" should be commissioning polls. The media are private organisations that seek to make a profit and while there is intense interest north of the border I'm not sure by any means that the national media can make a profit or even recoup costs by doing so.

On the other hand there's a large number of Scottish-based media publications. Surely these are the ones that should be commissioning surveys? Surely their readership will be interested? If Scotland becomes independent who is going to commission their new national surveys afterwards?

Why can't the Scottish media survey the Scottish public?

They have hardly any circulation due to being crap and supporting NO, hence they have no money for polls or real journalists, print crap and go round the loop again. They are circling the drain.

Life_ina_market_town

An interesting point that hasn't yet been mentioned relates to the publication of exit polls. By paragraph 8(2) of schedule 7 to the Scottish Independence Referendum Act 2013, it is an offence to publish an exit poll before the close of polling. However, section 29(2)(a) of the Scotland Act 1998 provides that an Act of the Scottish Parliament is outside the legislative competence of the Parliament if 'it would form part of the law of a country or territory other than Scotland'. No provision of the 2013 Act therefore extends to England and Wales, or to Northern Ireland. It will therefore be lawful to publish exit polls before the close of the poll, in England and Wales, and Northern Ireland, provided that publication does not also occur in Scotland.

Neil

Sean_F said:

shadsy said:

Here's a very astute post that someone put on my blog about polls - no real need for them:

"We all know from the 2011 manipulation of the polls that they are lying as not only have most of the No debating pages been overrun by Yes Twibbons as previously No supporters have changed side but the only people who are staunchly No anymore are those with links to the Orange Order. Their lying polls can’t hide the fact of what we are all seeing for ourselves on our own streets where there isn’t one single No poster in anyone’s window that I have witnessed. In comparison I was driving along a different route that I rarely take and I saw three houses not just with Yes posters in their windows but with great bloody big flagpoles with Saltires in their gardens."

That's a bit like De Valera only having to look within his heart to know what the Irish people were thinking.

They were usually thinking "You're a bit of an idiot, Dev."

malcolmg

OblitusSumMe said:

Slackbladder said:

I'll tell you one thing... the guys which have staked hundreds of thousands on a NO for a quick return on their money must be a little more nervous over the last few weeks...

That'll be one it'll be hard to tell the missus...

Depends. They might be the sort of people for whom it would make a damn fine dinner party anecdote, without missing the money one iota, or they might be using the bookmakers to hedge some contingent trades they have made elsewhere - say on the assumption that Sterling would fall sharply following a YES vote.

More likely to be government/ nasty Tory funded slush money to manipulate the market or they are deranged and so will not care in either event.

DavidL

Bond_James_Bond said:

Neil said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

long hair and a beard certainly seem to be sure signs of a lack of a sense of humour

Certainly Jesus was no fun at all.

Ooh I don't know. The water into wine thing was hilarious.

Tight father of the bride offers Canaa wedding guests crummy second rate wine. And not a lot of it, either. When it runs out, Jesus goes down to the cellar and sees tier upon tier of unbroached casks.

"Wassss in 'ose then?" he demands suspiciously, hiccuping.

"In those? Er...er...water! Yes, that's it...water," explains the FotB.

"Definitely not wine?"

"Nope. No way. Water."

"Orrrrrright....I declare it to be wine. Abracadabra!" retorts Jesus.

Disciples crack open a barrel. "You know what, Jesus? It is wine too - and iss a lot better than that p>ss we been drinking till now! Isss a bl00dy miracle!"

"Yeah. Right. A miracle", mutters the FotB, clutching his wallet in anguish.

Cracking prank.

LOL. Excellent.

[Deleted User]

malcolmg said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Slackbladder said:

I'll tell you one thing... the guys which have staked hundreds of thousands on a NO for a quick return on their money must be a little more nervous over the last few weeks...

That'll be one it'll be hard to tell the missus...

Depends. They might be the sort of people for whom it would make a damn fine dinner party anecdote, without missing the money one iota, or they might be using the bookmakers to hedge some contingent trades they have made elsewhere - say on the assumption that Sterling would fall sharply following a YES vote.

More likely to be government/ nasty Tory funded slush money to manipulate the market or they are deranged and so will not care in either event.

You're straying more than a bit into tinfoil hat territory Malc....

Richard_Nabavi

@Life_ina_market_town - On that point, does anyone know whether any exit polls are planned?

Bond_James_Bond

malcolmg said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Slackbladder said:

I'll tell you one thing... the guys which have staked hundreds of thousands on a NO for a quick return on their money must be a little more nervous over the last few weeks...

That'll be one it'll be hard to tell the missus...

Depends. They might be the sort of people for whom it would make a damn fine dinner party anecdote, without missing the money one iota, or they might be using the bookmakers to hedge some contingent trades they have made elsewhere - say on the assumption that Sterling would fall sharply following a YES vote.

More likely to be government/ nasty Tory funded slush money to manipulate the market or they are deranged and so will not care in either event.

Nurse!

malcolmg

Casino_Royale said:

Given the level of abuse and intimidation that seems to be directed towards anyone who says they will vote NO in Scotland, I can understand why there aren't many NO posters up in people's houses. If I was living in Scotland, I wouldn't want a brick through my window.. Or worse. You'd have to be very brave. This is why we have a secret ballot, thank goodness.

Where I don't agree is on this silence not showing up in the polls - as Michael Forsyth claimed on R4 yesterday, again citing the 1992 GE. Polls are generally anonymous and confidential these days, through either phone or internet rather than face-to-face, and the sampling methodology pretty tight, so i suspect they're fairly accurate. There is still a slender NO lead.

A number of those who are NO are now probably staying publicly quiet, and/ or obfuscating when challenged by their more enthusiastic YES peers, but in the privacy of the voting booth will be free to make (and will make) their own decision.

That's certainly the case amongst the many Scots I'm working with in London together (now) who joke about it, or promptly change the subject whenever it comes up - particularly if several of them are in a room together.

The only ones making a big noise are the one or two who are publicly YES and can't wait to tell you either.

Can you show any evidence whatsoever of any NO supporter having anything thrown through their windows.

isam

Emily Thornberry on daily politics saying we should let British jihadists back in then lock them up after they've taken part in terror attacks

Never seen Andrew Neil as animated & angry worth a watch on iplayer