''So if there was going to be such a charter, I would want to see it generated from within that community rather than imposed on it.''
I saw a TV programme where moderates in Cardiff claimed they had no support whatsoever for the fight against extremism. Zero, Zilch.
The authorities were just not interested.
That's what I found when I tried to get funding for a Muslim group that wanted a modest sum (£10K I think) to do a good website on interpretations of the Koran promoting peace and tolerance. The Minister passed it to a senior civil servant, who after some time got back to me and said the HO felt that this group was so constructive and moderate that they would not be influential with extremists: "I'm afraid they are simply not the problem".
Some trading value in the Tory price, I think. The Ashcroft poll will probably show a narrower margin than 44%, and after the Tory conference bounce no doubt it will look tighter still. I expect UKIP to win, but 13/2 is a silly price.
That Muslim group couldn't find enough moderate Muslims to raise £10k privately?
Where is the money coming from to build this ? Cost would exceed £100 billion and take much longer to build. Gatwick and Heathrow are already there, with it being much cheaper and easier to build additional capacity.
Also some relief can be provided by boosting flights from Birmingham, Glasgow and Manchester. When I have spoken to other passengers on flights, it has amazed me how they have spent hours travelling to Heathrow just to get a flight for a holiday. If there was a flight option at a nearer airport they would have taken it. Quite a lot of people from parts of the UK get flights to other European hub airports to fly to long haul destinations, because it is cheaper and/or more convenient.
One quirk is that it's actually very difficult using Expedia etc. to answer the question: "How can I fly most cheaply from England to (say) Argentina?" because you have to try each city in turn. This matters if you don't live in an airport city. When in Nottingham, I had to do separate searches for East Midlands, Birmingham, Manchester and London, all of them in comparable reach in terms of ground journey. I reckon that a site that offered an "airport within 100 miles" option would do well.
www.skyscanner.net
Had a similiar issue when looking for holidays recently, some websites you can select a whole plethora of airports (EMA, Heathrow, Birmingham, Manchester, Leeds-Bradford, Luton are all easy enough to get to for me) but others you have to search each bloody one.
Ashcroft follows ICM in reallocating DKs in accordance with 2010 vote. Only problem with Clacton is that UKIP deliberately didn't stand against Carswell because it broadly approved of him. So part of his vote in 2010 can be said not to be CON but UKIP.
The figures to be looking out for are the pre-allocated ones.
if May has any sense she will say how its a fine thing that Labour is interested in Rotherham now....after they presided over a decade and more in which mass rape and torture flourished in their core constituencies.
May won't though....these tories have no guts or heart. That is why UKIP are winning.
There are subtle differences in the proposal and delivery. Like I said, we are headed there anyway. Probably via some pretty grim rioting. That's the price we pay for misunderstanding or querying a creed being shut down and labelled as racist rather than a chance for both sides to talk, share and foster a closer understanding and sense of community. Too late for that now, Labour have pandered to the extremes and everyone else will get tarred with their dirty brush.
The moral outrage on here when Batten suggested his charter was there for all to see. The fact that no one is criticising Graham for a very similar proposal says it all and explains why we are where we are
Ashcroft follows ICM in reallocating DKs in accordance with 2010 vote. Only problem with Clacton is that UKIP deliberately didn't stand against Carswell because it broadly approved of him. So part of his vote in 2010 can be said not to be CON but UKIP.
The figures to be looking out for are the pre-allocated ones.
Basically this poll is going to be more favourable for CON than the recent Survation one ?
if May has any sense she will say how its a fine thing that Labour is interested in Rotherham now....after they presided over a decade and more in which mass rape and torture flourished in their core constituencies.
May won't though....these tories have no guts or heart. That is why UKIP are winning.
Sadly true. The bottle has gone from the Tory party.
There are subtle differences in the proposal and delivery. Like I said, we are headed there anyway. Probably via some pretty grim rioting. That's the price we pay for misunderstanding or querying a creed being shut down and labelled as racist rather than a chance for both sides to talk, share and foster a closer understanding and sense of community. Too late for that now, Labour have pandered to the extremes and everyone else will get tarred with their dirty brush.
The moral outrage on here when Batten suggested his charter was there for all to see. The fact that no one is criticising Graham for a very similar proposal says it all and explains why we are where we are
Yep. I'm not going to argue with you on that score. Batten was a bit gung-ho in the way he went about his suggestion, but essentially, yes, we are through the looking glass now.
if May has any sense she will say how its a fine thing that Labour is interested in Rotherham now....after they presided over a decade and more in which mass rape and torture flourished in their core constituencies.
May won't though....these tories have no guts or heart. That is why UKIP are winning.
None of the party leaders or the Home Secretary has said anything of note, which has led some in the tin foil brigade to wonder what else they know that we've not heard about yet.
The moral outrage on here when Batten suggested his charter was there for all to see. The fact that no one is criticising Graham for a very similar proposal says it all and explains why we are where we are
It wasn't moral outrage. People rightly pointed out it was a daft suggestion.
It remains a daft suggestion when Richard Graham says something similar, which is what David Cameron told him, albeit more politely than we are used to here on PB!
Hardly surprising that for some pb-ers there is literally nothing Labour can do to please them.
They could admit their policies and agenda have directly led to these events, pronounce themselves wholly unfit for any form of government ever and disband.
The moral outrage on here when Batten suggested his charter was there for all to see. The fact that no one is criticising Graham for a very similar proposal says it all and explains why we are where we are
It wasn't moral outrage. People rightly pointed out it was a daft suggestion.
It remains a daft suggestion when Richard Graham says something similar, which is what David Cameron told him, albeit more politely than we are used to here on PB!
Indeed. Plus Batten came out with some other daft suggestions that Farage ran a mile from and Graham didn't propose.
if May has any sense she will say how its a fine thing that Labour is interested in Rotherham now....after they presided over a decade and more in which mass rape and torture flourished in their core constituencies.
May won't though....these tories have no guts or heart. That is why UKIP are winning.
None of the party leaders or the Home Secretary has said anything of note, which has led some in the tin foil brigade to wonder what else they know that we've not heard about yet.
Pandoras Box, and the only thing that will be left is revolution. Of course they won't say anything, or do anything. We've been betrayed, as is becoming more obvious day by day. You can hear the drum beats far off on the right, and these idiots are going to send us there, all of us, in one giant lurch. It's not Farage that will sweep all before him, he's John the Baptist. Watch out for what and who comes after him.
UKIP MEP Gerard Batten proposed a Muslim Charter long ago... Yesterday a Cobservative MP did the same and Cameron didn't disagree....
What will these outraged folk have to say?
Rehman Chishti, the Conservative MP for Gillingham and Rainham, said Batten's position was "shocking", particularly the "charter of understanding" suggestion that parts of the Qur'an should be rendered "inapplicable". "If Nigel Farage had any credibility, he would quite clearly not allow this individual to stand for office in Ukip," he said.
Sadiq Khan, Labour's shadow London minister, also said he was "appalled at the ignorance that Gerard Batten appears to have shown when speaking about the faith that I and hundreds of thousands of British Muslims practice".
Mary Honeyball, a Labour MEP for London, said that Batten "represents the ugliest side of Ukip". "Batten's views overlap with the far-right. The idea that Muslims should be singled out in the way he suggests is a relic from a darker, more prejudiced time," she said.
Lefties queueing up to get outraged at some bloke saying something they don't like, whilst appealing for calm after it turns out thousands of children have been abused.
Hardly surprising that for some pb-ers there is literally nothing Labour can do to please them.
They could admit their policies and agenda have directly led to these events, pronounce themselves wholly unfit for any form of government ever and disband.
Job done. Then, with the country safe from Milipede and co, all fire to be turned on the party formally known as Conservative.
Re the case of Ashya, there is going to be a hearing in the family court in London this afternoon. Hopefully there will be a resolution, so the parents are released facing no prosecution and all parties involved, can start to put Ashya's needs first. If this is treatment elsewhere using technology that the NHS is not currently using, then that is the right of the parents to choose.
The moral outrage on here when Batten suggested his charter was there for all to see. The fact that no one is criticising Graham for a very similar proposal says it all and explains why we are where we are
It wasn't moral outrage. People rightly pointed out it was a daft suggestion.
It remains a daft suggestion when Richard Graham says something similar, which is what David Cameron told him, albeit more politely than we are used to here on PB!
There's also a big difference between enforcing a charter on Muslims from the outside, and the Muslim community wanting to do it on a voluntary basis.
Here's an idea: can we just take away the religious opt-out for animals that aren't stunned before slaughter? That way, the sort of nutty Muslims that are purist about these things will have to go vegetarian or leave the country...
The moral outrage on here when Batten suggested his charter was there for all to see. The fact that no one is criticising Graham for a very similar proposal says it all and explains why we are where we are
It wasn't moral outrage. People rightly pointed out it was a daft suggestion.
It remains a daft suggestion when Richard Graham says something similar, which is what David Cameron told him, albeit more politely than we are used to here on PB!
Nonono
Believe me it was moral outrage, people didn't say it was "daft" as shown by the quotes I linked to that aren't repeated today
Not so good for Ed Miliband or Labour when a good polling month for the party comes on the back of Ed Miliband invisibility in the news during the school holidays. GE campaigns tend to coalesce around intense media scrutiny of the party leaders and heightened interest from the electorate.
I have to admit that I have found Ed Miliband's detachment and complete lack of interest in the whole Independence debate over recent weeks worthy of note, its absolutely incredible considering he is the current leader of the Labour party. Regardless of the result of the Indy Ref, and the subsequent fall out for individual political leaders on the back of it. Its now obvious that Ed Miliband has totally missed a golden opportunity to finally really connect with a large part of the UK Labour heartlands. And that is something he really needed to do if he was serious about connecting with these voters and motivating them to bother to turn out for him at the next GE. Miliband has also managed to make Cameron look by far the stronger and more passionately interested Westminster party Leader up here in Scotland.
But if anyone was in any doubt about Jim Murphy's ability to not only take charge of a political campaign, but also to re-energise it and grab the media focus in a positive way, then do check out the coverage he is garnering today in the news on the BT campaign trail. Again, its worth reminding ourselves just how poorly Ed Miliband treated this extremely effective and politically astute member of the Shadow Cabinet during his last reshuffle.
I saw someone had linked to my local newspaper in the threads a few days ago with regard the vandalising of the No Thanks boards that had gone up in our area. This was so widespread it garnered a lot of comment locally, and it did the Yes campaign no favours at all in the end as far more BT boards have now gone up across the area in the last few days as a result.
Good month for Ed. From my perspective it is something of a pity that he has been less use to the BT campaign than David Cameron.
I think SeanT is guilty of some hyperbole (amazingly enough) on this but there is no question that the vote this month is of critical importance to Labour. I can understand why it is thought better for tories to stay away but why does this apply to Labour's front bench too? Surely they have nothing more important to do this month.
Clapton byelection on October 9 - David Cameron's 48th birthday. Will Ukip use that to personalise their campaign against Tory PM?
Will Cameron even be Prime Minister for his 48th birthday?
Looks 50/50 at the moment to me...
Dave won't quit.
It's a load of bollards that he will quit if the Scots vote yes.
Why should/would he quit.
Plus everyone who says he will quit, will acknowledge if No wins, Dave will get a boost?
No, thought not.
What if HMQ makes it clear she expects him to resign after presiding over the break-up of her Kingdom?
The Queen will still be the Head of State in Scotland.
As The Who might have sung about iScotland:
There's nothing in the streets Looks any different to me And the slogans are replaced, by-the-bye And the parting on the left Are now parting on the right And the beards have all grown longer overnight
I'll tip my hat to the new constitution Take a bow for the new revolution Smile and grin at the change all around Pick up my guitar and play Just like yesterday Then I'll get on my knees and pray We don't get fooled again Don't get fooled again No, no!
UKIP MEP Gerard Batten proposed a Muslim Charter long ago... Yesterday a Cobservative MP did the same and Cameron didn't disagree....
What will these outraged folk have to say?
Rehman Chishti, the Conservative MP for Gillingham and Rainham, said Batten's position was "shocking", particularly the "charter of understanding" suggestion that parts of the Qur'an should be rendered "inapplicable". "If Nigel Farage had any credibility, he would quite clearly not allow this individual to stand for office in Ukip," he said.
Sadiq Khan, Labour's shadow London minister, also said he was "appalled at the ignorance that Gerard Batten appears to have shown when speaking about the faith that I and hundreds of thousands of British Muslims practice".
Mary Honeyball, a Labour MEP for London, said that Batten "represents the ugliest side of Ukip". "Batten's views overlap with the far-right. The idea that Muslims should be singled out in the way he suggests is a relic from a darker, more prejudiced time," she said.
Lefties queueing up to get outraged at some bloke saying something they don't like, whilst appealing for calm after it turns out thousands of children have been abused.
@TheScreamingEagles The incredibly sad part of it is that "hallal" and "kosher" were probably the most hygienic and humanitarian form of slaughter available at one time, and made perfect sense. "Sense" became "doctrine" and therefore became immutable.
Ashcroft follows ICM in reallocating DKs in accordance with 2010 vote. Only problem with Clacton is that UKIP deliberately didn't stand against Carswell because it broadly approved of him. So part of his vote in 2010 can be said not to be CON but UKIP.
The figures to be looking out for are the pre-allocated ones.
Basically this poll is going to be more favourable for CON than the recent Survation one ?
Whilst agreeing with Mike in principle, I'm not sure that it should make that much difference should it? Even if UKIP had stood and the Tory hadn't been Carswell but (say) Ken Clarke - then the UKIP vote is unlikely to have been above 10% in 2010 given other UKIP results. It is thus at max only 10% of the 'Don't Knows' that are allocated incorrectly, so likely to be no more than 2 or 3% (if say 20%-30% are Don't Know)
Latest ARSE for the 2015 general election and JackW Dozen projections will be posted here at 9am.
Poor old Jack his mission in Edinburgh is not going to well, the bottom is falling out of his ARSE
KW posting for JackW
I'm sorry but I'm not aware what you're talking about?
Jack your pathetic kidding on you are not actually there is incredible. Not going to well up in Edinburgh is it.
KW for JackW.
Malcolm I don't know you and there's no need to be rude to me. Jack is not in Edinburgh and only briefly visited there a few weeks ago.
I don't know you and I fail to see how you think I am being rude. Just pointing out that he was in Edinburgh on business , things are not going well on his NO campaign and if you are not him , pass on my best wishes for the continued failure of his mission , he has only a few more weeks to suffer and we will find the ARSE'S do not have it.
KW for JackW.
In the small number of posts for JackW over the past few weeks I've made it clear to Pb that they are posted by me and not Jack but have been undertaken for him on his Pb account.
LOL, Better comedy from you than usual Jack, how is Edinburgh today.
FW for JackW.
You are a very rude individual. I have carefully explained to you the circumstances under which I have posted for Jack. I object to you calling me a liar when I have been open about my posts on Pb.
Ashcroft follows ICM in reallocating DKs in accordance with 2010 vote. Only problem with Clacton is that UKIP deliberately didn't stand against Carswell because it broadly approved of him. So part of his vote in 2010 can be said not to be CON but UKIP.
The figures to be looking out for are the pre-allocated ones.
What I'd really like to see is the number of respondents claiming they voted UKIP in 2010 :-)
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Change from 19th August Projection) :
Con 307 (-7) .. Lab 277 (+4) .. LibDem 32 .. SNP 8 .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 (+2) .. Respect 1 (+1) .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 19 seats short of a majority Labour 49 seats short of a majority ......................................................................................
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - TCTC Pudsey - TCTC Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain Warwickshire North - Likely Lab Gain Cambridge - Likely LibDem Hold Ipswich - TCTC Watford - TCTC Croydon Central - Likely Con Hold Enfield - TCTC Cornwall North - TCTC Great Yarmouth - Con Hold Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold Ochil and South Perthshire - Likely Lab Hold
Changes From 19th August - Bury North moves from Likely Con Hold to TCTC
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes Gain/Hold - Over 2500 votes .......................................................................................
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division JNN - Jacobite News Network ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
Clapton byelection on October 9 - David Cameron's 48th birthday. Will Ukip use that to personalise their campaign against Tory PM?
Will Cameron even be Prime Minister for his 48th birthday?
Looks 50/50 at the moment to me...
Dave won't quit.
It's a load of bollards that he will quit if the Scots vote yes.
Why should/would he quit.
Plus everyone who says he will quit, will acknowledge if No wins, Dave will get a boost?
No, thought not.
What if HMQ makes it clear she expects him to resign after presiding over the break-up of her Kingdom?
The Queen will still be the Head of State in Scotland.
Is she the HoS in Canada or Australia or is it the Governer General ? You cannot expect the Scot PM to make his weekly visit if she is residing at Buck House.
Ashcroft follows ICM in reallocating DKs in accordance with 2010 vote. Only problem with Clacton is that UKIP deliberately didn't stand against Carswell because it broadly approved of him. So part of his vote in 2010 can be said not to be CON but UKIP.
The figures to be looking out for are the pre-allocated ones.
What I'd really like to see is the number of respondents claiming they voted UKIP in 2010 :-)
Haha
Actually that would be really helpful to judge false recall in other polls... Hope they weren't corrected when they claimed they voted ukip 2010 and the results are shown
Clapton byelection on October 9 - David Cameron's 48th birthday. Will Ukip use that to personalise their campaign against Tory PM?
Will Cameron even be Prime Minister for his 48th birthday?
Looks 50/50 at the moment to me...
Dave won't quit.
It's a load of bollards that he will quit if the Scots vote yes.
Why should/would he quit.
Plus everyone who says he will quit, will acknowledge if No wins, Dave will get a boost?
No, thought not.
What if HMQ makes it clear she expects him to resign after presiding over the break-up of her Kingdom?
The Queen will still be the Head of State in Scotland.
Is she the HoS in Canada or Australia or is it the Governer General ? You cannot expect the Scot PM to make his weekly visit if she is residing at Buck House.
Ashcroft follows ICM in reallocating DKs in accordance with 2010 vote. Only problem with Clacton is that UKIP deliberately didn't stand against Carswell because it broadly approved of him. So part of his vote in 2010 can be said not to be CON but UKIP.
The figures to be looking out for are the pre-allocated ones.
What I'd really like to see is the number of respondents claiming they voted UKIP in 2010 :-)
Haha
Actually that would be really helpful to judge false recall in other polls... Hope they weren't corrected when they claimed they voted ukip 2010 and the results are shown
Survation noted this problem in their constituency phone polls
Secondly, we have reason to believe that there is a substantial degree of false recall going on in these telephone polls when people are asked who they voted for in the last election. In most constituencies we have polled over the last year, the proportion of people saying they voted UKIP in 2010 was higher than the actual recorded percentage from the last election. I cannot think of a plausible reason why, after having corrected for age, gender and ward, we would actually have over-sampled past UKIP voters so significantly and so consistently. Instead it seems far more likely that these additional “past UKIP” voters, virtually all of whom say they are currently planning to vote UKIP, are either consciously or subconsciously altering their response to make their views sound more consistent, or else are confusing the 2010 general election with a different election, perhaps the last local elections, in which they did actually vote UKIP (in South Thanet for instance UKIP came top in the local elections 2013). To consistently depress the UKIP vote by applying a downweighting to these voters without a plausible hypothesis for why they are being “over-sampled” would seem to be a major mistake.
Ashcroft follows ICM in reallocating DKs in accordance with 2010 vote. Only problem with Clacton is that UKIP deliberately didn't stand against Carswell because it broadly approved of him. So part of his vote in 2010 can be said not to be CON but UKIP.
The figures to be looking out for are the pre-allocated ones.
What I'd really like to see is the number of respondents claiming they voted UKIP in 2010 :-)
Haha
Actually that would be really helpful to judge false recall in other polls... Hope they weren't corrected when they claimed they voted ukip 2010 and the results are shown
Presumably there may be some Clacton immigrants from outwith who were Kipper10s?
Clapton byelection on October 9 - David Cameron's 48th birthday. Will Ukip use that to personalise their campaign against Tory PM?
Will Cameron even be Prime Minister for his 48th birthday?
Looks 50/50 at the moment to me...
Dave won't quit.
It's a load of bollards that he will quit if the Scots vote yes.
Why should/would he quit.
Plus everyone who says he will quit, will acknowledge if No wins, Dave will get a boost?
No, thought not.
What if HMQ makes it clear she expects him to resign after presiding over the break-up of her Kingdom?
The Queen will still be the Head of State in Scotland.
Is she the HoS in Canada or Australia or is it the Governer General ? You cannot expect the Scot PM to make his weekly visit if she is residing at Buck House.
TheScreamingEagles “....past UKIP” voters, virtually all of whom say they are currently planning to vote UKIP, are either consciously or subconsciously altering their response... "
Cooper attempting to position Rotherham as current government's fault. No reference at all to Labour's 100% responsibility for it - rotten Rotherham borough, Labour govt driving "multiculture" agenda & political correctness, massive immigration and so on.
Latest ARSE for the 2015 general election and JackW Dozen projections will be posted here at 9am.
Poor old Jack his mission in Edinburgh is not going to well, the bottom is falling out of his ARSE
KW posting for JackW
I'm sorry but I'm not aware what you're talking about?
Jack your pathetic kidding on you are not actually there is incredible. Not going to well up in Edinburgh is it.
KW for JackW.
Malcolm I don't know you and there's no need to be rude to me. Jack is not in Edinburgh and only briefly visited there a few weeks ago.
I don't know you and I fail to see how you think I am being rude. Just pointing out that he was in Edinburgh on business , things are not going well on his NO campaign and if you are not him , pass on my best wishes for the continued failure of his mission , he has only a few more weeks to suffer and we will find the ARSE'S do not have it.
KW for JackW.
In the small number of posts for JackW over the past few weeks I've made it clear to Pb that they are posted by me and not Jack but have been undertaken for him on his Pb account.
LOL, Better comedy from you than usual Jack, how is Edinburgh today.
FW for JackW.
You are a very rude individual. I have carefully explained to you the circumstances under which I have posted for Jack. I object to you calling me a liar when I have been open about my posts on Pb.
Whilst you are a very silly JACKW sock puppet. Go away and talk to some of your worshippers , they will fawn over you. I take it by your tantrum that things are getting worse in Edinburgh.
Boo - I've been asked to write the Clacton thread.
I must NOT refer to Douglas Carswell as the the traitorous pig-dog turncoat defector
Good afternoon. No TSE, you must not refer to Douglas Carswell, as that Knight in Shining Armour; the Man on the White Horse or that Magnet that will draw thousands to UKIP.
TBH, the Tories are doing their usual stuff of not going in with their Size 9s. I prefer that - but Labour doesn't have the same scruples. This is a great shame.
Like Salmond's shameless lying. I just recoil from it, but others are clearly hoodwinked by his Braveheart rhetoric.
Cooper attempting to position Rotherham as current government's fault. No reference at all to Labour's 100% responsibility for it - rotten Rotherham borough, Labour govt driving "multiculture" agenda & political correctness, massive immigration and so on.
The political/media class all support said agenda that's why, it's also why there is no opposition on foreign policy either.
And no one is going to fall that one. Just like it being Thatcher's fault for Jimmy Savile.
The desperation is palpable. I can well understand the Left's horror at Rotherham, and wanting to wish it all away with Whataboutery - but it doesn't change the facts. Labour were and are in control. It's their policies that allowed it to flourish. There's no getting away from that.
Cooper attempting to position Rotherham as current government's fault. No reference at all to Labour's 100% responsibility for it - rotten Rotherham borough, Labour govt driving "multiculture" agenda & political correctness, massive immigration and so on.
Watching the (very reasonable) questioning of the Home Secretary about the future steps to be taken in relation to the abuse in Rotherham and elsewhere I'm gobsmacked that anyone would think that this was not an appropriate issue for Labour to raise in Parliament today.
No public he is having usual @BT@ public meeting of plants and tame press only, but the chicken found him. Ridiculed again , what a team him , Flipper and the great clunking duffer the addled Tory helpers.
Ashcroft follows ICM in reallocating DKs in accordance with 2010 vote. Only problem with Clacton is that UKIP deliberately didn't stand against Carswell because it broadly approved of him. So part of his vote in 2010 can be said not to be CON but UKIP.
The figures to be looking out for are the pre-allocated ones.
What I'd really like to see is the number of respondents claiming they voted UKIP in 2010 :-)
Haha
Actually that would be really helpful to judge false recall in other polls... Hope they weren't corrected when they claimed they voted ukip 2010 and the results are shown
Survation noted this problem in their constituency phone polls
Secondly, we have reason to believe that there is a substantial degree of false recall going on in these telephone polls when people are asked who they voted for in the last election. In most constituencies we have polled over the last year, the proportion of people saying they voted UKIP in 2010 was higher than the actual recorded percentage from the last election. I cannot think of a plausible reason why, after having corrected for age, gender and ward, we would actually have over-sampled past UKIP voters so significantly and so consistently. Instead it seems far more likely that these additional “past UKIP” voters, virtually all of whom say they are currently planning to vote UKIP, are either consciously or subconsciously altering their response to make their views sound more consistent, or else are confusing the 2010 general election with a different election, perhaps the last local elections, in which they did actually vote UKIP (in South Thanet for instance UKIP came top in the local elections 2013). To consistently depress the UKIP vote by applying a downweighting to these voters without a plausible hypothesis for why they are being “over-sampled” would seem to be a major mistake.
TBH, the Tories are doing their usual stuff of not going in with their Size 9s. I prefer that - but Labour doesn't have the same scruples. This is a great shame.
Like Salmond's shameless lying. I just recoil from it, but others are clearly hoodwinked by his Braveheart rhetoric.
Whatever their many faults, I strongly doubt that is among them.
If anything, it is the left that tend to believe their political opponents are bad people, while the right think their political opponents have bad ideas......
Clapton byelection on October 9 - David Cameron's 48th birthday. Will Ukip use that to personalise their campaign against Tory PM?
Will Cameron even be Prime Minister for his 48th birthday?
Looks 50/50 at the moment to me...
Dave won't quit.
It's a load of bollards that he will quit if the Scots vote yes.
Why should/would he quit.
Plus everyone who says he will quit, will acknowledge if No wins, Dave will get a boost?
No, thought not.
What if HMQ makes it clear she expects him to resign after presiding over the break-up of her Kingdom?
The Queen will still be the Head of State in Scotland.
Is she the HoS in Canada or Australia or is it the Governer General ? You cannot expect the Scot PM to make his weekly visit if she is residing at Buck House.
The Governor-Generals are merely representative of the Queen. She's the Head of State.
I also don't see why it would be too difficult for the Scottish PM to visit weekly. It's only a few hundred miles. US Senators trek a lot further to vote in the chamber.
I was in Kensington High street earlier today and who should pass me by were two well known ladies. The first was SamCam, the very image of her photo; slim svelte and a real good looker. The second was Yasmin Alibai-Brown exiting M & S; dress to kill, with obviously expensive clothing and shoes, but with a big frown of unhappiness on her face. If looks could kill, etcetera......................
Or perhaps the problem is the Tories have really bought into the whole multicultural-PC agenda and they do not/can not believe it is at fault in Rotherham. No wonder UKIP voters see no difference between them and Labour.
Ashcroft follows ICM in reallocating DKs in accordance with 2010 vote. Only problem with Clacton is that UKIP deliberately didn't stand against Carswell because it broadly approved of him. So part of his vote in 2010 can be said not to be CON but UKIP.
The figures to be looking out for are the pre-allocated ones.
What I'd really like to see is the number of respondents claiming they voted UKIP in 2010 :-)
Haha
Actually that would be really helpful to judge false recall in other polls... Hope they weren't corrected when they claimed they voted ukip 2010 and the results are shown
People who voted UKIP in LOCAL elections since 2010 may well correctly say they voted UKIP at the last election when they were being asked about the last GENERAL election.
No public he is having usual @BT@ public meeting of plants and tame press only, but the chicken found him. Ridiculed again , what a team him , Flipper and the great clunking duffer the addled Tory helpers.
And you wonder why the English will never let you share Sterling.
@Socrates And the "nutty" Jews as well? Ethnic cleansing by "unclean" food?
The food's not unclean. Moderate Muslims and Jews are very happy for the animals to be stunned first (or ignoring it all together). I don't see why we should see an opt-out for the reactionaries.
You also seem to not understand the meaning of the term "ethnic cleansing".
Latest ARSE for the 2015 general election and JackW Dozen projections will be posted here at 9am.
Poor old Jack his mission in Edinburgh is not going to well, the bottom is falling out of his ARSE
KW posting for JackW
I'm sorry but I'm not aware what you're talking about?
Jack your pathetic kidding on you are not actually there is incredible. Not going to well up in Edinburgh is it.
KW for JackW.
Malcolm I don't know you and there's no need to be rude to me. Jack is not in Edinburgh and only briefly visited there a few weeks ago.
I don't know you and I fail to see how you think I am being rude. Just pointing out that he was in Edinburgh on business , things are not going well on his NO campaign and if you are not him , pass on my best wishes for the continued failure of his mission , he has only a few more weeks to suffer and we will find the ARSE'S do not have it.
KW for JackW.
In the small number of posts for JackW over the past few weeks I've made it clear to Pb that they are posted by me and not Jack but have been undertaken for him on his Pb account.
LOL, Better comedy from you than usual Jack, how is Edinburgh today.
FW for JackW.
You are a very rude individual. I have carefully explained to you the circumstances under which I have posted for Jack. I object to you calling me a liar when I have been open about my posts on Pb.
Whilst you are a very silly JACKW sock puppet. Go away and talk to some of your worshippers , they will fawn over you. I take it by your tantrum that things are getting worse in Edinburgh.
KW for JackW.
I object to your post very seriously. I didn't agree to post for Jack so people like you would abuse me.
Sorry Pb and to Mr Smithson but that's my lot here.
I was in Kensington High street earlier today and who should pass me by were two well known ladies. The first was SamCam, the very image of her photo; slim svelte and a real good looker. The second was Yasmin Alibai-Brown exiting M & S; dress to kill, with obviously expensive clothing and shoes, but with a big frown of unhappiness on her face. If looks could kill, etcetera......................
Just a quick lunchtime posting following a thought I've had this morning.
Namely has Baroness Warsi had anything to say about Rotherham yet ?
Or is she yet another person who knew nothing about anything. Despite that is being Minster for Faith and Communities for the two years until her resignation, shadow minister for that issue for three years before the election, being big mates with Lord Ahmed of Rotherham and coming from a town only a few miles up the M1.
Some good work by the BBC. And to think Guardian columns have on a number of occasions argued that political correctness is not responsible for 'Rotherham'
They really should be ashamed. Read the threads and you find out some Guardian readers are.
Surprised he hasn't been sent to Common Purpose for training.
I can't be arsed to check but I would hazard a guess that Shaun Wright and several other councillors in Rotherham are Common Purpose brainwashed.
Rotherham Metropolitan Borough Council was paying Common Purpose £10,000 each year to run leadership courses for schoolchildren and £3,000 a go for officers to attend courses.... Don't know about Councillors
Was I right in hearing that Theresa has just said that arrests in connection with child abuse have been made in Buckingham today? Genuine question, I am not sure I heard her correctly.
Just a quick lunchtime posting following a thought I've had this morning.
Namely has Baroness Warsi had anything to say about Rotherham yet ?
Or is she yet another person who knew nothing about anything. Despite that is being Minster for Faith and Communities for the two years until her resignation, shadow minister for that issue for three years before the election, being big mates with Lord Ahmed of Rotherham and coming from a town only a few miles up the M1.
She has, like she did in the past.
Sayeeda Warsi @SayeedaWarsi · Aug 26 #Rotherham report reveals the extent of this horrific abuse. My interview from 2012.
Just a quick lunchtime posting following a thought I've had this morning.
Namely has Baroness Warsi had anything to say about Rotherham yet ?
Or is she yet another person who knew nothing about anything. Despite that is being Minster for Faith and Communities for the two years until her resignation, shadow minister for that issue for three years before the election, being big mates with Lord Ahmed of Rotherham and coming from a town only a few miles up the M1.
I was in Kensington High street earlier today and who should pass me by were two well known ladies. The first was SamCam, the very image of her photo; slim svelte and a real good looker. The second was Yasmin Alibai-Brown exiting M & S; dress to kill, with obviously expensive clothing and shoes, but with a big frown of unhappiness on her face. If looks could kill, etcetera......................
Clapton byelection on October 9 - David Cameron's 48th birthday. Will Ukip use that to personalise their campaign against Tory PM?
Will Cameron even be Prime Minister for his 48th birthday?
Looks 50/50 at the moment to me...
Dave won't quit.
It's a load of bollards that he will quit if the Scots vote yes.
Why should/would he quit.
Plus everyone who says he will quit, will acknowledge if No wins, Dave will get a boost?
No, thought not.
What if HMQ makes it clear she expects him to resign after presiding over the break-up of her Kingdom?
The Queen will still be the Head of State in Scotland.
As The Who might have sung about iScotland:
There's nothing in the streets Looks any different to me And the slogans are replaced, by-the-bye And the parting on the left Are now parting on the right And the beards have all grown longer overnight
I'll tip my hat to the new constitution Take a bow for the new revolution Smile and grin at the change all around Pick up my guitar and play Just like yesterday Then I'll get on my knees and pray We don't get fooled again Don't get fooled again No, no!
Yeaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah!
Meet the new Queen Same as the old Queen
If the Scots vote yes we will be able to bring forward the sixth verse of the national anthem which reads
Lord grant that Marshal Wade May by thy mighty aid Victory bring May he sedition hush And like a torrent rush Rebellious Scots to crush God save the King
Just a quick lunchtime posting following a thought I've had this morning.
Namely has Baroness Warsi had anything to say about Rotherham yet ?
Or is she yet another person who knew nothing about anything. Despite that is being Minster for Faith and Communities for the two years until her resignation, shadow minister for that issue for three years before the election, being big mates with Lord Ahmed of Rotherham and coming from a town only a few miles up the M1.
Now, had the perpetrators been Israelis...
Then she would have condemned them too? That's what you meant, right?
Watching the (very reasonable) questioning of the Home Secretary about the future steps to be taken in relation to the abuse in Rotherham and elsewhere I'm gobsmacked that anyone would think that this was not an appropriate issue for Labour to raise in Parliament today.
It's perfectly appropriate for them to raise it provided they show the slightest smidgeon of self-awareness that it was under a Labour council under a Labour government that these crimes and the cover up and attacks on whistleblowers happened.
Is Cooper doing that or is she pretending that Jack Straw who apparently threatened Denis McShane and McShane and all the other Labour councillors involved belonged to some different Labour party?
Is she admitting that Anne Cryer was right and that lots of Labour MPs knew she was right at the time, as Chris Mullins' diaries show, but were too lacking in courage to speak up?
Comments
Ashcroft follows ICM in reallocating DKs in accordance with 2010 vote. Only problem with Clacton is that UKIP deliberately didn't stand against Carswell because it broadly approved of him. So part of his vote in 2010 can be said not to be CON but UKIP.
The figures to be looking out for are the pre-allocated ones.
if May has any sense she will say how its a fine thing that Labour is interested in Rotherham now....after they presided over a decade and more in which mass rape and torture flourished in their core constituencies.
May won't though....these tories have no guts or heart. That is why UKIP are winning.
Ask questions and press for action on it and they are trying to shift the blame.
Hardly surprising that for some pb-ers there is literally nothing Labour can do to please them.
Could it be any worse for Con?
It remains a daft suggestion when Richard Graham says something similar, which is what David Cameron told him, albeit more politely than we are used to here on PB!
They could start thinking why an environment where this could fester was allowed to be cultivated
They could admit their policies and agenda have directly led to these events, pronounce themselves wholly unfit for any form of government ever and disband.
Of course they won't say anything, or do anything. We've been betrayed, as is becoming more obvious day by day.
You can hear the drum beats far off on the right, and these idiots are going to send us there, all of us, in one giant lurch.
It's not Farage that will sweep all before him, he's John the Baptist. Watch out for what and who comes after him.
Pretty much sums them up.
Put your money on Knopfler.....
Believe me it was moral outrage, people didn't say it was "daft" as shown by the quotes I linked to that aren't repeated today
And the "nutty" Jews as well?
Ethnic cleansing by "unclean" food?
I have to admit that I have found Ed Miliband's detachment and complete lack of interest in the whole Independence debate over recent weeks worthy of note, its absolutely incredible considering he is the current leader of the Labour party. Regardless of the result of the Indy Ref, and the subsequent fall out for individual political leaders on the back of it. Its now obvious that Ed Miliband has totally missed a golden opportunity to finally really connect with a large part of the UK Labour heartlands. And that is something he really needed to do if he was serious about connecting with these voters and motivating them to bother to turn out for him at the next GE. Miliband has also managed to make Cameron look by far the stronger and more passionately interested Westminster party Leader up here in Scotland.
But if anyone was in any doubt about Jim Murphy's ability to not only take charge of a political campaign, but also to re-energise it and grab the media focus in a positive way, then do check out the coverage he is garnering today in the news on the BT campaign trail. Again, its worth reminding ourselves just how poorly Ed Miliband treated this extremely effective and politically astute member of the Shadow Cabinet during his last reshuffle.
I saw someone had linked to my local newspaper in the threads a few days ago with regard the vandalising of the No Thanks boards that had gone up in our area. This was so widespread it garnered a lot of comment locally, and it did the Yes campaign no favours at all in the end as far more BT boards have now gone up across the area in the last few days as a result.
There's nothing in the streets
Looks any different to me
And the slogans are replaced, by-the-bye
And the parting on the left
Are now parting on the right
And the beards have all grown longer overnight
I'll tip my hat to the new constitution
Take a bow for the new revolution
Smile and grin at the change all around
Pick up my guitar and play
Just like yesterday
Then I'll get on my knees and pray
We don't get fooled again
Don't get fooled again
No, no!
Yeaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah!
Meet the new Queen
Same as the old Queen
The incredibly sad part of it is that "hallal" and "kosher" were probably the most hygienic and humanitarian form of slaughter available at one time, and made perfect sense.
"Sense" became "doctrine" and therefore became immutable.
"I'd rather make a donation & pour a bucket of cold water on Shadow Chancellor's plans": Osborne's hilarious A to Balls ice-bucket challenge
You are a very rude individual. I have carefully explained to you the circumstances under which I have posted for Jack. I object to you calling me a liar when I have been open about my posts on Pb.
The construction sector expanded at its fastest pace for seven months in August, despite supply shortages holding back growth, a survey suggests.
The Markit/CIPS construction Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) surged to 64 in August from 62.4 in July, surprising economists who had forecast a fall.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29030604
I must NOT refer to Douglas Carswell as the the traitorous pig-dog turncoat defector
Chancellor @George_Osborne announces that 2014 Autumn Statement will be on December 3
Will a yes vote mean we get free use of the monarchy, or will we still have to pay for the privilege?
Actually that would be really helpful to judge false recall in other polls... Hope they weren't corrected when they claimed they voted ukip 2010 and the results are shown
Secondly, we have reason to believe that there is a substantial degree of false recall going on in these telephone polls when people are asked who they voted for in the last election. In most constituencies we have polled over the last year, the proportion of people saying they voted UKIP in 2010 was higher than the actual recorded percentage from the last election. I cannot think of a plausible reason why, after having corrected for age, gender and ward, we would actually have over-sampled past UKIP voters so significantly and so consistently. Instead it seems far more likely that these additional “past UKIP” voters, virtually all of whom say they are currently planning to vote UKIP, are either consciously or subconsciously altering their response to make their views sound more consistent, or else are confusing the 2010 general election with a different election, perhaps the last local elections, in which they did actually vote UKIP (in South Thanet for instance UKIP came top in the local elections 2013). To consistently depress the UKIP vote by applying a downweighting to these voters without a plausible hypothesis for why they are being “over-sampled” would seem to be a major mistake.
http://survation.com/a-note-on-methodology-for-our-constituency-phone-polls/
Gordon Brown is making a series of speeches to save the United Kingdom. So, that's a load off then. #ChristHelpUs
"What I'd really like to see is the number of respondents claiming they voted UKIP in 2010 :-) "
The average age of UKIP voters would make accurate recall more uncertain than usual.
Of course, I suppose it's possible that some voted UKIP in a different constituency, but yes it would be funny.
Btw, many thanks for your Washington Nationals tip. What do you think of their chances in the play offs? Should we be laying off and if so, when?
“....past UKIP” voters, virtually all of whom say they are currently planning to vote UKIP, are either consciously or subconsciously altering their response... "
Probably senility or dementia?
Yes vote ahead among all but older voters in latest YouGov Scotland #IndyRef poll
hmmmmm not sure what to make of that.
They even seem to be letting Labour muddy the waters and try and pin it on them. What is a matter with them?
No TSE, you must not refer to Douglas Carswell, as that Knight in Shining Armour; the Man on the White Horse or that Magnet that will draw thousands to UKIP.
This is all May's fault. It beggars belief the tories can be caught out on the back foot on this.
But that is the tory party today. Utterly cowed. Utterly confused. Utterly convinced labour are morally superior.
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/vt3dw4u8k5/Scotland_EndofAug_Times_Sun_Website.pdf
twitter.com/mrmchoohaa/status/506759545470087168/photo/1
TBH, the Tories are doing their usual stuff of not going in with their Size 9s. I prefer that - but Labour doesn't have the same scruples. This is a great shame.
Like Salmond's shameless lying. I just recoil from it, but others are clearly hoodwinked by his Braveheart rhetoric.
Looks like someone turned it off.....
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29027996
The desperation is palpable. I can well understand the Left's horror at Rotherham, and wanting to wish it all away with Whataboutery - but it doesn't change the facts. Labour were and are in control. It's their policies that allowed it to flourish. There's no getting away from that.
If anything, it is the left that tend to believe their political opponents are bad people, while the right think their political opponents have bad ideas......
I also don't see why it would be too difficult for the Scottish PM to visit weekly. It's only a few hundred miles. US Senators trek a lot further to vote in the chamber.
The second was Yasmin Alibai-Brown exiting M & S; dress to kill, with obviously expensive clothing and shoes, but with a big frown of unhappiness on her face. If looks could kill, etcetera......................
No wonder UKIP voters see no difference between them and Labour.
People who voted UKIP in LOCAL elections since 2010 may well correctly say they voted UKIP at the last election when they were being asked about the last GENERAL election.
You also seem to not understand the meaning of the term "ethnic cleansing".
I object to your post very seriously. I didn't agree to post for Jack so people like you would abuse me.
Sorry Pb and to Mr Smithson but that's my lot here.
We don't get that kind of riff raff here.
That is now the same as the best Yes price (Betfair).
Namely has Baroness Warsi had anything to say about Rotherham yet ?
Or is she yet another person who knew nothing about anything. Despite that is being Minster for Faith and Communities for the two years until her resignation, shadow minister for that issue for three years before the election, being big mates with Lord Ahmed of Rotherham and coming from a town only a few miles up the M1.
Genuine question, I am not sure I heard her correctly.
Sayeeda Warsi @SayeedaWarsi · Aug 26
#Rotherham report reveals the extent of this horrific abuse. My interview from 2012.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/baroness-warsi-some-pakistani-men-think-young-white-girls-are-fair-game-for-sex-abuse-7766319.html …
But, why not do a bit of research, instead of slagging off the Tories.
If the Scots vote yes we will be able to bring forward the sixth verse of the national anthem which reads
Lord grant that Marshal Wade
May by thy mighty aid
Victory bring
May he sedition hush
And like a torrent rush
Rebellious Scots to crush
God save the King
Source:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/theroyalfamily/1571287/God-Save-the-Queen-lyrics.html
Is Cooper doing that or is she pretending that Jack Straw who apparently threatened Denis McShane and McShane and all the other Labour councillors involved belonged to some different Labour party?
Is she admitting that Anne Cryer was right and that lots of Labour MPs knew she was right at the time, as Chris Mullins' diaries show, but were too lacking in courage to speak up?
Paddy Power cut their high turnout price again.
More than 75% 8/15
75% or under 11/8