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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » August’s Politicalbetting polling average: LAB recovery continues

The one-time received wisdom that August polls should be ignored because summer sun and silly season made sampling and support unstable took a good hit last month when Mike noted the accuracy of ICM’s August polls in the run-up to three of the last four elections.  Of course, polls are snapshots not predictions and are bound by a political equivalent of Newton’s First Law:

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CarlottaVance

First!

CarlottaVance

FPT

While Labour may be recovering, Ed certainly ain't;

CarlottaVance said:

Leader ratings (net)
Last August rating:
Cameron/Miliband

2014: -12 / -46
2013: -19 / -39
2012: -26 / -28
2011: -10 / -23
2010: +27 / +20 (Miliband end September)

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/mkx2s70nst/YG-Archives-Pol-Trackers-Leaders-Approval-290814.pdf

Stuart_Dickson

Both Paddy Power and Shadsy have adjusted up their Yes vote % line markets to 45.5%, from 43.5%.

Both bookies currently offering 10/11 both above and below the line. Congratulations to those last week who got on Ladbrokes' EVS for the Yes vote to be above 41.5%.

Big move on the IndyRef market after last night's YouGov:

IndyRef - best prices:

Yes 10/3 (various) from 5/1
No 1/4 (various) from 1/5

My Betfair account is currently screaming at me in lovely big, bold green numbers. Lots of numbers. Which is nice.

Next poll out imminently. Which is nice.

Nearly £2.7 million has now been matched on Betfair's IndyRef market. That figure is likely to soar in the next few days as wounded punters seek to minimise their losses.

Would the punters who were laying Yes at 7.6 a couple of weeks ago please raise their hands? Nope, I thought not.

SandyRentool

Morning all.

35/35/10/10 still looks likely to me come next May.

50/50 for the Referendum too!

RobD

Stuart_Dickson said:

Next poll out imminently. Which is nice.

Do you know from whom?

Charles

RobD said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Next poll out imminently. Which is nice.

Do you know from whom?

How are you setting into your new home?

Innocent_Abroad

Des anyone know, or have a good estimate, of the number of Scottish electors who aren't Scottish? If the "No" majority is smaller than that number the fireworks will surely fly - and I'm not talking celebration, either...

Stuart_Dickson

SandyRentool said:

Morning all.

35/35/10/10 still looks likely to me come next May.

50/50 for the Referendum too!

Funnily enough, if you pump 35/35/10/10 into Baxter then it results in a hung parliament with... guess who... the SNP as the decisive group! Fun n games I'm sure.

Lab 323 MPs (+65)
Con 283 MPs (-24)
LD 17 MPs (-40)
SNP 6 MPs (n/c)
PC 3 MPs (n/c)
NI 18 MPs (n/c)
Grn 0 MPs (-1)
UKIP 0 MPs (n/c)

If it is 50/50 for the Referendum then we will be arguing over spoilt ballot papers for a good while. Either way, if it is anywhere near that close then the Union is a dead duck anyway.

JosiasJessop

A question:

The Kings say they are going to take legal action against Southampton General Hospital. Given the conflicting requirements of defending themselves and protecting Ashya's privacy, can the hospital use relevant medical details to defend themselves, if applicable?

JosiasJessop

Breaking news:

Boris Island rejected.

My view: this is a big, big mistake long-term.

JosiasJessop

Off-topic:

A number of celebrities have had explicit photos released of them. It looks likely that these were hacked off Apple's iCloud service.

What sort of famous idiot puts private photos on a cloud service, ffs? It is just asking for trouble.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-29011850

MattW

JosiasJessop said:

Off-topic:

A number of celebrities have had explicit photos released of them. It looks likely that these were hacked off Apple's iCloud service.

What sort of famous idiot puts private photos on a cloud service, ffs? It is just asking for trouble.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-29011850

Isn't that victim blaming?

(Stupid ones, btw)

JosiasJessop

MattW said:

JosiasJessop said:

Off-topic:

A number of celebrities have had explicit photos released of them. It looks likely that these were hacked off Apple's iCloud service.

What sort of famous idiot puts private photos on a cloud service, ffs? It is just asking for trouble.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-29011850

Isn't that victim blaming?

(Stupid ones, btw)

In a way, it is. The hackers should be caught and prosecuted. But it's a really stupid to put any private photos on a cloud service fr a whole host of pretty obvious reasons.

Then again, I think it is barmy of private companies of any size to use cloud services for documentation (with certain exceptions).

edmundintokyo

JosiasJessop said:

Off-topic:

A number of celebrities have had explicit photos released of them. It looks likely that these were hacked off Apple's iCloud service.

What sort of famous idiot puts private photos on a cloud service, ffs? It is just asking for trouble.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-29011850

I think the way it works is that you have some Apple device and it asks you whether you want to back it up, and you say yes because it sounds like a sensible thing to do.

Stuart_Dickson

Innocent_Abroad said:

Des anyone know, or have a good estimate, of the number of Scottish electors who aren't Scottish? If the "No" majority is smaller than that number the fireworks will surely fly - and I'm not talking celebration, either...

At the 2001 census approx 7% of people resident in Scotland were "Other white British" (ie. white English, white Welsh, white Ulster). That figure is probably higher now. Guesstimate: 9% (?)

1% white Irish

1.5% other white

2% minority ethnic groups

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2004/02/18876/32939

I realise that those stats are old and do not answer your exact question, but they are the best I could come up with with 3 minutes googling.

So, let us assume that approx 10% of the Scottish population "aren't Scottish" (your words note; this is a very problematic and controversial definition by the way).

Let us also assume that No wins with a majority of less than 10 points (eg. last night's YouGov).

Well, it doesn't take a genius to work out who would have "won" it for PM David Cameron. And it won't have been The Sun.

edmundintokyo

JosiasJessop said:

Breaking news:

Boris Island rejected.

My view: this is a big, big mistake long-term.

Boris Island completed its mission successfully, namely allowing Boris to support flying loads of planes in and out while opposing the noise made by the planes.

Stuart_Dickson

Note for Innocent_Abroad:

The English Scots for Yes page has only 2,082 likes. That is a lot less than a lot of "village X for Yes" pages.

https://www.facebook.com/englishscotsforyes

I know lots of English Scots who back independence (many are members of my party), however I know a heck of a lot more who vehemently oppose it.

MattW

>The Kings say they are going to take legal action against Southampton General Hospital

Personally I hope they take action against the Assistant Chief Constable as well, since I can se e little valid reason for using criminal procedures against people who seem to have committed no offence, complete with a full-on media witch-hunt.

Why did he even get a European Arrest Warrant?

It is only 2 months since the Chief Constable of Nottinghamshire declared that he would treat consensual sexting amongst 17 year olds (here's me in a bikini, darling) as distribution of child pornograhpy.
http://www.nottinghampost.com/Police-blitz-sexting-school-kids/story-21740344-detail/story.html

We have a Senior Policeman with deranged priorities Problem, methinks.

Alanbrooke

Stuart_Dickson said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

Des anyone know, or have a good estimate, of the number of Scottish electors who aren't Scottish? If the "No" majority is smaller than that number the fireworks will surely fly - and I'm not talking celebration, either...

At the 2001 census approx 7% of people resident in Scotland were "Other white British" (ie. white English, white Welsh, white Ulster). That figure is probably higher now. Guesstimate: 9% (?)

1% white Irish

1.5% other white

2% minority ethnic groups

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2004/02/18876/32939

I realise that those stats are old and do not answer your exact question, but they are the best I could come up with with 3 minutes googling.

So, let us assume that approx 10% of the Scottish population "aren't Scottish" (your words note; this is a very problematic and controversial definition by the way).

Let us also assume that No wins with a majority of less than 10 points (eg. last night's YouGov).

Well, it doesn't take a genius to work out who would have "won" it for PM David Cameron. And it won't have been The Sun.

Horses for courses.

Since 20% of all people born in Scotland live elsewhere in the UK and can't vote, nobody can really say what Scots think. The Indyref is a survey of people resident in Scotland.

Alanbrooke

Stuart_Dickson said:

Note for Innocent_Abroad:

The English Scots for Yes page has only 2,082 likes. That is a lot less than a lot of "village X for Yes" pages.

https://www.facebook.com/englishscotsforyes

I know lots of English Scots who back independence (many are members of my party), however I know a heck of a lot more who vehemently oppose it.

I wonder if the guy running Wings over Scotland will actually have the courage to move to Scotland ?

DecrepitJohnL

JosiasJessop said:

MattW said:

JosiasJessop said:

Off-topic:

A number of celebrities have had explicit photos released of them. It looks likely that these were hacked off Apple's iCloud service.

What sort of famous idiot puts private photos on a cloud service, ffs? It is just asking for trouble.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-29011850

Isn't that victim blaming?

(Stupid ones, btw)

In a way, it is. The hackers should be caught and prosecuted. But it's a really stupid to put any private photos on a cloud service fr a whole host of pretty obvious reasons.

Then again, I think it is barmy of private companies of any size to use cloud services for documentation (with certain exceptions).

You'd better tell Francis Maude, then, who wants all government IT and services to be cloud-based, under the so-called G-cloud initiative.

CarlottaVance

Innocent_Abroad said:

Des anyone know, or have a good estimate, of the number of Scottish electors who aren't Scottish? If the "No" majority is smaller than that number the fireworks will surely fly - and I'm not talking celebration, either...

There has been polling among non-Scotland born voters in SINDY - by a substantial margin, against - and clearly enough to tip the balance in the event of a close run-No.

Another source of division, post-SindyRef.....

SouthamObserver

A brief interruption to my PB sabbatical to send greetings from Tokyo and to say that the YG independence poll should surprise no-one. The Scots are going to vote Yes. Like people across the UK they are fed up with the Westminster system and feel totally disengaged from it. But unlike everyone else in two and a half weeks they have the opportunity to do something about that. The consequences of this for them may well turn out to be pretty bleak, but right now that is not the issue. Yes understands this. No can do nothing about it, because they are the Westminster parties.

Once the Yes is secured and the SNP's claims about currency, EU membership, oil and all the rest of it are exposed as the fibs and half truths that they are, it's possible that there may be a degree of buyers' remorse - but as the SNP knows, by then it will be too late; the frontier will be going up and for them that is all that is important.

Salmond has said he will sacrifice the SNP and his own political future to get independence(what else would you expect from a nationalist?), and that is probably what will happen when the negotiations deliver a string of Scottish disappointments and the country's living standards fall. Contrary to many on here, I expect Labour to be resurgent in Scotland very rapidly as the warnings the No side gave prior to the vote largely turn out to be correct. But, again, why would the nationalists care?

There will be all kinds of people getting the blame for the Yes vote when it happens - Darling personally, Labour (on here especially), the Tories, Cameron, Thatcher and so on. But the fact is that it is the Westminster system in general that will have done it. Our current generation of leaders are part of that and are also reaping what it has sown. If you ask me , the single biggest culprit is First Past The Post and its prioritisation of conflict over consensus. But I would say that, wouldn't I?

Syonara.

DavidL

Good month for Ed. From my perspective it is something of a pity that he has been less use to the BT campaign than David Cameron.

I think SeanT is guilty of some hyperbole (amazingly enough) on this but there is no question that the vote this month is of critical importance to Labour. I can understand why it is thought better for tories to stay away but why does this apply to Labour's front bench too? Surely they have nothing more important to do this month.

CarlottaVance

SouthamObserver said:

Contrary to many on here, I expect Labour to be resurgent in Scotland very rapidly as the warnings the No side gave prior to the vote largely turn out to be correct.

Anecdote alert - long time tribal Glasgow Labour friend (loathes SNP and all their works, reckons first 10-15 years will be tough) has decided 'Yes' - and once SLAB recover from the shock of a loss, I suspect they will fall on Project Fib with a vengeance.

Innocent_Abroad

CarlottaVance said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

Des anyone know, or have a good estimate, of the number of Scottish electors who aren't Scottish? If the "No" majority is smaller than that number the fireworks will surely fly - and I'm not talking celebration, either...

There has been polling among non-Scotland born voters in SINDY - by a substantial margin, against - and clearly enough to tip the balance in the event of a close run-No.

Another source of division, post-SindyRef.....

I know what they think, CV, I just don't know how many there are of them! My expectation is that if "AYE" loses by less than ten points, its activists will point to this number, and if needs be the number of voters over 80 (or 75, or whatever) and argue that they have been cheated of their future by foreigners and by their past. It's a recipe for the formation of terrorist groups.

Next question - and I'm still working this one out - is this. The UK Parliament decides it is prepared to grant Scotland independence - whether in the event of an AYE or a close NO - provided that Scotland has a written constitution guaranteeing, among other things, the personal safety of non-Scottish nationals in an independent Scotland. Independence to follow the ratification of such a constitution in a further referendum. I suspect such a move would split the AYEs, and not least the SNP itself, down the middle: the genuine patriots, who would see it as a reasonable price to pay for what they want, and those who are merely filled with hatred of the English, who would not. So the question is this - how much of AYE is driven by patriotism, and how much by racist rancour?

Stuart_Dickson

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

Des anyone know, or have a good estimate, of the number of Scottish electors who aren't Scottish? If the "No" majority is smaller than that number the fireworks will surely fly - and I'm not talking celebration, either...

At the 2001 census approx 7% of people resident in Scotland were "Other white British" (ie. white English, white Welsh, white Ulster). That figure is probably higher now. Guesstimate: 9% (?)

1% white Irish

1.5% other white

2% minority ethnic groups

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2004/02/18876/32939

I realise that those stats are old and do not answer your exact question, but they are the best I could come up with with 3 minutes googling.

So, let us assume that approx 10% of the Scottish population "aren't Scottish" (your words note; this is a very problematic and controversial definition by the way).

Let us also assume that No wins with a majority of less than 10 points (eg. last night's YouGov).

Well, it doesn't take a genius to work out who would have "won" it for PM David Cameron. And it won't have been The Sun.

Horses for courses.

Since 20% of all people born in Scotland live elsewhere in the UK and can't vote, nobody can really say what Scots think. The Indyref is a survey of people resident in Scotland.

So, now the independence referendum is reduced to the status of "a survey" is it? Ho ho. Look who's losing.

Just 16 days to save the Yoonyun.

Alanbrooke

Stuart_Dickson said:

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

Des anyone know, or have a good estimate, of the number of Scottish electors who aren't Scottish? If the "No" majority is smaller than that number the fireworks will surely fly - and I'm not talking celebration, either...

At the 2001 census approx 7% of people resident in Scotland were "Other white British" (ie. white English, white Welsh, white Ulster). That figure is probably higher now. Guesstimate: 9% (?)

1% white Irish

1.5% other white

2% minority ethnic groups

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2004/02/18876/32939

I realise that those stats are old and do not answer your exact question, but they are the best I could come up with with 3 minutes googling.

So, let us assume that approx 10% of the Scottish population "aren't Scottish" (your words note; this is a very problematic and controversial definition by the way).

Let us also assume that No wins with a majority of less than 10 points (eg. last night's YouGov).

Well, it doesn't take a genius to work out who would have "won" it for PM David Cameron. And it won't have been The Sun.

Horses for courses.

Since 20% of all people born in Scotland live elsewhere in the UK and can't vote, nobody can really say what Scots think. The Indyref is a survey of people resident in Scotland.

So, now the independence referendum is reduced to the status of "a survey" is it? Ho ho. Look who's losing.

Just 16 days to save the Yoonyun.

No it's a vote Stuart, but the picking around to isolate groups of voters is just the usual SNP crap.

And as for losing YES hasn't been ahead once in the campaign, it shows you chaps can't do maths.

Stuart_Dickson

Innocent_Abroad said:

CarlottaVance said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

Des anyone know, or have a good estimate, of the number of Scottish electors who aren't Scottish? If the "No" majority is smaller than that number the fireworks will surely fly - and I'm not talking celebration, either...

There has been polling among non-Scotland born voters in SINDY - by a substantial margin, against - and clearly enough to tip the balance in the event of a close run-No.

Another source of division, post-SindyRef.....

I know what they think, CV, I just don't know how many there are of them! My expectation is that if "AYE" loses by less than ten points, its activists will point to this number, and if needs be the number of voters over 80 (or 75, or whatever) and argue that they have been cheated of their future by foreigners and by their past. It's a recipe for the formation of terrorist groups.

Next question - and I'm still working this one out - is this. The UK Parliament decides it is prepared to grant Scotland independence - whether in the event of an AYE or a close NO - provided that Scotland has a written constitution guaranteeing, among other things, the personal safety of non-Scottish nationals in an independent Scotland. Independence to follow the ratification of such a constitution in a further referendum. I suspect such a move would split the AYEs, and not least the SNP itself, down the middle: the genuine patriots, who would see it as a reasonable price to pay for what they want, and those who are merely filled with hatred of the English, who would not. So the question is this - how much of AYE is driven by patriotism, and how much by racist rancour?

Now I regret making an attempt to seriously address your query earlier in the thread. It is crystal clear that you are just a run-of-the-mill troll.

CarlottaVance

Innocent_Abroad said:

CarlottaVance said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

Des anyone know, or have a good estimate, of the number of Scottish electors who aren't Scottish? If the "No" majority is smaller than that number the fireworks will surely fly - and I'm not talking celebration, either...

There has been polling among non-Scotland born voters in SINDY - by a substantial margin, against - and clearly enough to tip the balance in the event of a close run-No.

Another source of division, post-SindyRef.....

how much of AYE is driven by patriotism, and how much by racist rancour?

At a guess 90:10 at very worst - just the racists, as everywhere, tend to be more shouty so appear more numerous than they actually are.......The overwhelming majority of Scots will want to have continuing good relations with England and the English - its unfortunate that the preposterous prospectus of fibs they have been sold independence on will make this difficult - as we can see in the polling of English voters.

Stuart_Dickson

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

Des anyone know, or have a good estimate, of the number of Scottish electors who aren't Scottish? If the "No" majority is smaller than that number the fireworks will surely fly - and I'm not talking celebration, either...

At the 2001 census approx 7% of people resident in Scotland were "Other white British" (ie. white English, white Welsh, white Ulster). That figure is probably higher now. Guesstimate: 9% (?)

1% white Irish

1.5% other white

2% minority ethnic groups

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2004/02/18876/32939

I realise that those stats are old and do not answer your exact question, but they are the best I could come up with with 3 minutes googling.

So, let us assume that approx 10% of the Scottish population "aren't Scottish" (your words note; this is a very problematic and controversial definition by the way).

Let us also assume that No wins with a majority of less than 10 points (eg. last night's YouGov).

Well, it doesn't take a genius to work out who would have "won" it for PM David Cameron. And it won't have been The Sun.

Horses for courses.

Since 20% of all people born in Scotland live elsewhere in the UK and can't vote, nobody can really say what Scots think. The Indyref is a survey of people resident in Scotland.

So, now the independence referendum is reduced to the status of "a survey" is it? Ho ho. Look who's losing.

Just 16 days to save the Yoonyun.

No it's a vote Stuart, but the picking around to isolate groups of voters is just the usual SNP crap.

And as for losing YES hasn't been ahead once in the campaign, it shows you chaps can't do maths.

Picking around to isolate groups of voters is just the usual Unionist crap. It was Innocent-Abroad who raised the issue, not me.

The polls are plain wrong. They still are. Even that YG last night. The weightings are totally bonkers. And that is before you even start to address their heavily contaminated database of (ahem) "respondents".

Alanbrooke

CarlottaVance said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

CarlottaVance said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

Des anyone know, or have a good estimate, of the number of Scottish electors who aren't Scottish? If the "No" majority is smaller than that number the fireworks will surely fly - and I'm not talking celebration, either...

There has been polling among non-Scotland born voters in SINDY - by a substantial margin, against - and clearly enough to tip the balance in the event of a close run-No.

Another source of division, post-SindyRef.....

how much of AYE is driven by patriotism, and how much by racist rancour?

At a guess 90:10 at very worst - just the racists, as everywhere, tend to be more shouty so appear more numerous than they actually are.......The overwhelming majority of Scots will want to have continuing good relations with England and the English - its unfortunate that the preposterous prospectus of fibs they have been sold independence on will make this difficult - as we can see in the polling of English voters.

Oh well it will allow Farage another lease of life - 5 million Scots coming to take our jobs ! :-)

Alanbrooke

Stuart_Dickson said:

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

Des anyone know, or have a good estimate, of the number of Scottish electors who aren't Scottish? If the "No" majority is smaller than that number the fireworks will surely fly - and I'm not talking celebration, either...

At the 2001 census approx 7% of people resident in Scotland were "Other white British" (ie. white English, white Welsh, white Ulster). That figure is probably higher now. Guesstimate: 9% (?)

1% white Irish

1.5% other white

2% minority ethnic groups

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2004/02/18876/32939

I realise that those stats are old and do not answer your exact question, but they are the best I could come up with with 3 minutes googling.

So, let us assume that approx 10% of the Scottish population "aren't Scottish" (your words note; this is a very problematic and controversial definition by the way).

Let us also assume that No wins with a majority of less than 10 points (eg. last night's YouGov).

Well, it doesn't take a genius to work out who would have "won" it for PM David Cameron. And it won't have been The Sun.

Horses for courses.

Since 20% of all people born in Scotland live elsewhere in the UK and can't vote, nobody can really say what Scots think. The Indyref is a survey of people resident in Scotland.

So, now the independence referendum is reduced to the status of "a survey" is it? Ho ho. Look who's losing.

Just 16 days to save the Yoonyun.

No it's a vote Stuart, but the picking around to isolate groups of voters is just the usual SNP crap.

And as for losing YES hasn't been ahead once in the campaign, it shows you chaps can't do maths.

Picking around to isolate groups of voters is just the usual Unionist crap. It was Innocent-Abroad who raised the issue, not me.

The polls are plain wrong. They still are. Even that YG last night. The weightings are totally bonkers. And that is before you even start to address their heavily contaminated database of (ahem) "respondents".

Well we'll see Stuart, however you have declared victory without the inconvenience of a vote.
Personally I think NO will still win.

JackW

KW posting for JackW

Latest ARSE for the 2015 general election and JackW Dozen projections will be posted here at 9am.

Innocent_Abroad

CarlottaVance said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

CarlottaVance said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

Des anyone know, or have a good estimate, of the number of Scottish electors who aren't Scottish? If the "No" majority is smaller than that number the fireworks will surely fly - and I'm not talking celebration, either...

There has been polling among non-Scotland born voters in SINDY - by a substantial margin, against - and clearly enough to tip the balance in the event of a close run-No.

Another source of division, post-SindyRef.....

how much of AYE is driven by patriotism, and how much by racist rancour?

At a guess 90:10 at very worst - just the racists, as everywhere, tend to be more shouty so appear more numerous than they actually are.......The overwhelming majority of Scots will want to have continuing good relations with England and the English - its unfortunate that the preposterous prospectus of fibs they have been sold independence on will make this difficult - as we can see in the polling of English voters.

I do hope you're right. The evidence of this Forum is against you.

RobD

Innocent_Abroad said:

CarlottaVance said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

CarlottaVance said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

Des anyone know, or have a good estimate, of the number of Scottish electors who aren't Scottish? If the "No" majority is smaller than that number the fireworks will surely fly - and I'm not talking celebration, either...

There has been polling among non-Scotland born voters in SINDY - by a substantial margin, against - and clearly enough to tip the balance in the event of a close run-No.

Another source of division, post-SindyRef.....

how much of AYE is driven by patriotism, and how much by racist rancour?

At a guess 90:10 at very worst - just the racists, as everywhere, tend to be more shouty so appear more numerous than they actually are.......The overwhelming majority of Scots will want to have continuing good relations with England and the English - its unfortunate that the preposterous prospectus of fibs they have been sold independence on will make this difficult - as we can see in the polling of English voters.

I do hope you're right. The evidence of this Forum is against you.

I don't think this forum is representative of the population at large. If so, God help us....

foxinsoxuk

Alanbrooke said:

CarlottaVance said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

CarlottaVance said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

Des anyone know, or have a good estimate, of the number of Scottish electors who aren't Scottish? If the "No" majority is smaller than that number the fireworks will surely fly - and I'm not talking celebration, either...

There has been polling among non-Scotland born voters in SINDY - by a substantial margin, against - and clearly enough to tip the balance in the event of a close run-No.

Another source of division, post-SindyRef.....

how much of AYE is driven by patriotism, and how much by racist rancour?

At a guess 90:10 at very worst - just the racists, as everywhere, tend to be more shouty so appear more numerous than they actually are.......The overwhelming majority of Scots will want to have continuing good relations with England and the English - its unfortunate that the preposterous prospectus of fibs they have been sold independence on will make this difficult - as we can see in the polling of English voters.

Oh well it will allow Farage another lease of life - 5 million Scots coming to take our jobs ! :-)

Pro unionist Scots moving south to seek opportunity. We could do worse, that is how my Scots ancestors got here.

There will be turmoil for a couple of years if yes wins (though I still think no will win), but England will come out of it stronger and Scots will be bitter.

CarlottaVance

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

Des anyone know, or have a good estimate, of the number of Scottish electors who aren't Scottish? If the "No" majority is smaller than that number the fireworks will surely fly - and I'm not talking celebration, either...

At the 2001 census approx 7% of people resident in Scotland were "Other white British" (ie. white English, white Welsh, white Ulster). That figure is probably higher now. Guesstimate: 9% (?)

1% white Irish

1.5% other white

2% minority ethnic groups

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2004/02/18876/32939

I realise that those stats are old and do not answer your exact question, but they are the best I could come up with with 3 minutes googling.

So, let us assume that approx 10% of the Scottish population "aren't Scottish" (your words note; this is a very problematic and controversial definition by the way).

Let us also assume that No wins with a majority of less than 10 points (eg. last night's YouGov).

Well, it doesn't take a genius to work out who would have "won" it for PM David Cameron. And it won't have been The Sun.

Horses for courses.

Since 20% of all people born in Scotland live elsewhere in the UK and can't vote, nobody can really say what Scots think. The Indyref is a survey of people resident in Scotland.

So, now the independence referendum is reduced to the status of "a survey" is it? Ho ho. Look who's losing.

Just 16 days to save the Yoonyun.

No it's a vote Stuart, but the picking around to isolate groups of voters is just the usual SNP crap.

And as for losing YES hasn't been ahead once in the campaign, it shows you chaps can't do maths.

Picking around to isolate groups of voters is just the usual Unionist crap. It was Innocent-Abroad who raised the issue, not me.

The polls are plain wrong. They still are. Even that YG last night. The weightings are totally bonkers. And that is before you even start to address their heavily contaminated database of (ahem) "respondents".

Well we'll see Stuart, however you have declared victory without the inconvenience of a vote.
Personally I think NO will still win.

Postal votes are being cast - and NO is still ahead in the polls - have YES left it too late?

We'll know soon enough.

And if it is a YES, the reaction from England will not be the anticipated wailing and gnashing of teeth - more 'Here's your hat, where's your hurry' and 'You've made your bed - you lie in it...'

Stuart_Dickson

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

Contrary to many on here, I expect Labour to be resurgent in Scotland very rapidly as the warnings the No side gave prior to the vote largely turn out to be correct.

Anecdote alert - long time tribal Glasgow Labour friend (loathes SNP and all their works, reckons first 10-15 years will be tough) has decided 'Yes'

That is extremely common. That is why I have a little smile every time a BritNat writes "the nationalists" or "YESNP" when referring to the Yes campaign. It shows that they haven't got the faintest clue about the types of people backing Yes, or, more importantly, why.

The No campaign are running blind.

Our best guesstimates are that approx 40% of SLab voters favour Yes over No. Some feel strongly about it (about half) and will definitely vote Yes. But it is the remaining 20% of weak Yes SLab voters that are absolutely critical to the result. Alistair Darling standing up on national tv to defend the Lib-Con attacks on the NHS is not helping Johanna Lamont's effort to keep that key 20% on board.

HYUFD

While Salmond's bounce from the debate has clearly boosted Yes after last night's yougov, we should also not forget the first yougov after Darling's win was 61-39 to No and that followed a Survation which had also showed a bounce to No. So we are now seeing those bounces reversed and going to Yes. Subsequent polls showed no such bounce and if anything a move to Yes, and indeed a subsequent yougov showed that bounce subsiding about a week later so we shall see if Salmond's post debate momentum continues or even increases or if it begins to fade off as it did for No

foxinsoxuk

JackW said:

KW posting for JackW

Latest ARSE for the 2015 general election and JackW Dozen projections will be posted here at 9am.

Send my best wishes to JackW. I miss his wit and look forward to his return after he completes his business.

JosiasJessop

edmundintokyo said:

JosiasJessop said:

Off-topic:

A number of celebrities have had explicit photos released of them. It looks likely that these were hacked off Apple's iCloud service.

What sort of famous idiot puts private photos on a cloud service, ffs? It is just asking for trouble.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-29011850

I think the way it works is that you have some Apple device and it asks you whether you want to back it up, and you say yes because it sounds like a sensible thing to do.

Yes, which is why a) I have turned off the autobackup on my Android phone, and b) realise that if I was to take explicit photos, not to take them on an Internet-enabled device if I did not know what I was doing, how to secure them and prevent them from being uploaded.

People could still hack my PC and retrieve, if not pictures, private documents I may not want releasing, but they would have to target my PC directly. By targeting iCloud, they can potentially access millions of accounts for the price of one.

CarlottaVance

foxinsoxuk said:

Alanbrooke said:

CarlottaVance said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

CarlottaVance said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

Des anyone know, or have a good estimate, of the number of Scottish electors who aren't Scottish? If the "No" majority is smaller than that number the fireworks will surely fly - and I'm not talking celebration, either...

There has been polling among non-Scotland born voters in SINDY - by a substantial margin, against - and clearly enough to tip the balance in the event of a close run-No.

Another source of division, post-SindyRef.....

how much of AYE is driven by patriotism, and how much by racist rancour?

At a guess 90:10 at very worst - just the racists, as everywhere, tend to be more shouty so appear more numerous than they actually are.......The overwhelming majority of Scots will want to have continuing good relations with England and the English - its unfortunate that the preposterous prospectus of fibs they have been sold independence on will make this difficult - as we can see in the polling of English voters.

Oh well it will allow Farage another lease of life - 5 million Scots coming to take our jobs ! :-)

Pro unionist Scots moving south to seek opportunity. We could do worse, that is how my Scots ancestors got here.

There will be turmoil for a couple of years if yes wins (though I still think no will win), but England will come out of it stronger and Scots will be bitter.

As Boswell (a Scot) records of Samuel Johnson (an Englishman):

The noblest prospect which a Scotchman ever sees, is the high road that leads him to England!"

foxinsoxuk

JosiasJessop said:

A question:

The Kings say they are going to take legal action against Southampton General Hospital. Given the conflicting requirements of defending themselves and protecting Ashya's privacy, can the hospital use relevant medical details to defend themselves, if applicable?

They can (and are forced to do so) in court, but cannot breach the childs confidentiality in fighting the twitterstorm.

Stuart_Dickson

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

Des anyone know, or have a good estimate, of the number of Scottish electors who aren't Scottish? If the "No" majority is smaller than that number the fireworks will surely fly - and I'm not talking celebration, either...

SNIP

Horses for courses.

Since 20% of all people born in Scotland live elsewhere in the UK and can't vote, nobody can really say what Scots think. The Indyref is a survey of people resident in Scotland.

So, now the independence referendum is reduced to the status of "a survey" is it? Ho ho. Look who's losing.

Just 16 days to save the Yoonyun.

No it's a vote Stuart, but the picking around to isolate groups of voters is just the usual SNP crap.

And as for losing YES hasn't been ahead once in the campaign, it shows you chaps can't do maths.

Picking around to isolate groups of voters is just the usual Unionist crap. It was Innocent-Abroad who raised the issue, not me.

The polls are plain wrong. They still are. Even that YG last night. The weightings are totally bonkers. And that is before you even start to address their heavily contaminated database of (ahem) "respondents".

Well we'll see Stuart, however you have declared victory without the inconvenience of a vote.
Personally I think NO will still win.

No I have not. At no point have I ever said that Yes will emerge victorious. Unlike vast numbers of PB Tories I do not count my chickens before they have hatched, and it does you no credit to tell blatant untruths about my record.

For the umpteenth time: I do not have a clue which side will win. All I know is that it will be close.

Also for the record, my best guess is that Yes is currently slightly ahead at this moment (over 2 weeks out). Perhaps in the ballpark of 53% Yes 47% No. But what worries me slightly is the Quebec precedent, where there was a small and extremely late swing back to No, which was just enough to take them over the winning line.

GOTV and differential turnout will decide it.

hucks67

JosiasJessop said:

Breaking news:

Boris Island rejected.

My view: this is a big, big mistake long-term.

Where is the money coming from to build this ? Cost would exceed £100 billion and take much longer to build. Gatwick and Heathrow are already there, with it being much cheaper and easier to build additional capacity.

Also some relief can be provided by boosting flights from Birmingham, Glasgow and Manchester. When I have spoken to other passengers on flights, it has amazed me how they have spent hours travelling to Heathrow just to get a flight for a holiday. If there was a flight option at a nearer airport they would have taken it. Quite a lot of people from parts of the UK get flights to other European hub airports to fly to long haul destinations, because it is cheaper and/or more convenient.

JosiasJessop

DecrepitJohnL said:

JosiasJessop said:

MattW said:

JosiasJessop said:

Off-topic:

A number of celebrities have had explicit photos released of them. It looks likely that these were hacked off Apple's iCloud service.

What sort of famous idiot puts private photos on a cloud service, ffs? It is just asking for trouble.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-29011850

Isn't that victim blaming?

(Stupid ones, btw)

In a way, it is. The hackers should be caught and prosecuted. But it's a really stupid to put any private photos on a cloud service fr a whole host of pretty obvious reasons.

Then again, I think it is barmy of private companies of any size to use cloud services for documentation (with certain exceptions).

You'd better tell Francis Maude, then, who wants all government IT and services to be cloud-based, under the so-called G-cloud initiative.

Yes, there are real reasons to be concerned about this sort of move, especially (as is probable) private and sensitive data will be held on the cloud.

Then again, governmental data security is a bit of a joke anyway (and this goes for all governments, and I'm not just talking about data discs going missing).

foxinsoxuk

Stuart_Dickson said:

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

Des anyone know, or have a good estimate, of the number of Scottish electors who aren't Scottish? If the "No" majority is smaller than that number the fireworks will surely fly - and I'm not talking celebration, either...

SNIP

Horses for courses.

Since 20% of all people born in Scotland live elsewhere in the UK and can't vote, nobody can really say what Scots think. The Indyref is a survey of people resident in Scotland.

So, now the independence referendum is reduced to the status of "a survey" is it? Ho ho. Look who's losing.

Just 16 days to save the Yoonyun.

No it's a vote Stuart, but the picking around to isolate groups of voters is just the usual SNP crap.

And as for losing YES hasn't been ahead once in the campaign, it shows you chaps can't do maths.

Picking around to isolate groups of voters is just the usual Unionist crap. It was Innocent-Abroad who raised the issue, not me.

The polls are plain wrong. They still are. Even that YG last night. The weightings are totally bonkers. And that is before you even start to address their heavily contaminated database of (ahem) "respondents".

Well we'll see Stuart, however you have declared victory without the inconvenience of a vote.
Personally I think NO will still win.

No I have not. At no point have I ever said that Yes will emerge victorious. Unlike vast numbers of PB Tories I do not count my chickens before they have hatched, and it does you no credit to tell blatant untruths about my record.

For the umpteenth time: I do not have a clue which side will win. All I know is that it will be close.

Also for the record, my best guess is that Yes is currently slightly ahead at this moment (over 2 weeks out). Perhaps in the ballpark of 53% Yes 47% No. But what worries me slightly is the Quebec precedent, where there was a small and extremely late swing back to No, which was just enough to take them over the winning line.

GOTV and differential turnout will decide it.

Shadsys Yes 5% band at 50% was a lot better value than the overall yes odds.

Yes over 55% is my worst outcome in terms of betting, particularly if turnout is low.

HYUFD

SD Indeed, the final Quebec polls all had Yes ahead in 1995, but virtually all the final remaining undecideds went for No, allowing No to scrape across the line

Financier

YG Indy Ref:

Do you think Scotland would be
economically better or worse off if it
became an independent country, or would
it make no difference?

Better off:35 (+3)
Worse off: 44(-2)
No Diff: 11(+1)

Do you think you personally would be
financially better or worse off if Scotland
became an independent country, or would
it make no difference?

Better off: 21 (+2)
Worse off: 41(-1)
No Diff: 24(+2)

Do you trust/not trust the statements and claims made by:

Salmond: -20 (+3)
Sturgeon -18(+1)
Darling: -28(-14)
Cameron: -50(-5)
Miliband: -43 (-7)
Lamont: -32 (-4)
Rennie: -34 (-3)
Davidson: -31 (-1)
Brown: -26

JosiasJessop

hucks67 said:

JosiasJessop said:

Breaking news:

Boris Island rejected.

My view: this is a big, big mistake long-term.

Where is the money coming from to build this ? Cost would exceed £100 billion and take much longer to build. Gatwick and Heathrow are already there, with it being much cheaper and easier to build additional capacity.

Also some relief can be provided by boosting flights from Birmingham, Glasgow and Manchester. When I have spoken to other passengers on flights, it has amazed me how they have spent hours travelling to Heathrow just to get a flight for a holiday. If there was a flight option at a nearer airport they would have taken it. Quite a lot of people from parts of the UK get flights to other European hub airports to fly to long haul destinations, because it is cheaper and/or more convenient.

"with it being much cheaper and easier to build additional capacity."

According to the estimates, yes. But you are not comparing like-with-like. The additional capacity that you get from a third Heathrow runway is tiny compared to the real and potential capacity you get from a brand-new hub.

Heathrow is in the wrong place, is hemmed in by settlements, and every expansion is increasingly massively expensive.

It has served us well, but it's had its day.

Agree with your second paragraph.

CarlottaVance

YouGov tables up.

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/vt3dw4u8k5/Scotland_EndofAug_Times_Sun_Website.pdf

To answer an earlier question

Birthplace (Yes/No excl DK)
Scotland: 49/51
rUK: 31/69
ex-UK: 40/60

YouGov weight birthplace: 82 / 10 / 8

So the 'English' could easily swing it.....

Monksfield

Please let this Boris Island idiocy now be buried. This was little more than an environmental disaster in the making. Wrong on almost all counts.

rcs1000

Stuart_Dickson said:

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

Des anyone know, or have a good estimate, of the number of Scottish electors who aren't Scottish? If the "No" majority is smaller than that number the fireworks will surely fly - and I'm not talking celebration, either...

At the 2001 census approx 7% of people resident in Scotland were "Other white British" (ie. white English, white Welsh, white Ulster). That figure is probably higher now. Guesstimate: 9% (?)

1% white Irish

1.5% other white

2% minority ethnic groups

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2004/02/18876/32939

I realise that those stats are old and do not answer your exact question, but they are the best I could come up with with 3 minutes googling.

So, let us assume that approx 10% of the Scottish population "aren't Scottish" (your words note; this is a very problematic and controversial definition by the way).

Let us also assume that No wins with a majority of less than 10 points (eg. last night's YouGov).

Well, it doesn't take a genius to work out who would have "won" it for PM David Cameron. And it won't have been The Sun.

Horses for courses.

Since 20% of all people born in Scotland live elsewhere in the UK and can't vote, nobody can really say what Scots think. The Indyref is a survey of people resident in Scotland.

So, now the independence referendum is reduced to the status of "a survey" is it? Ho ho. Look who's losing.

Just 16 days to save the Yoonyun.

No it's a vote Stuart, but the picking around to isolate groups of voters is just the usual SNP crap.

And as for losing YES hasn't been ahead once in the campaign, it shows you chaps can't do maths.

Picking around to isolate groups of voters is just the usual Unionist crap. It was Innocent-Abroad who raised the issue, not me.

The polls are plain wrong. They still are. Even that YG last night. The weightings are totally bonkers. And that is before you even start to address their heavily contaminated database of (ahem) "respondents".

If that's so, why are you 'green' on all outcomes?

hucks67

Looks like the government have put pressure on the CPS to review what is going on with Ashya, as both Cameron and Clegg have stated that they are not happy with the way parents of a sick child have been dealt with. Clegg has just said that the CPS is conducting a very urgent review.

Hopefully this will mean that urgent actions can be taken, where the parents can be released and given help, so that decisions that are best for Ashya can be taken. At the moment Ashya is under the control of the UK high court, as Portsmouth council took action on Friday to make him ward of court. So this would have to be reversed or amended in some way.

JackW

foxinsoxuk said:

JackW said:

KW posting for JackW

Latest ARSE for the 2015 general election and JackW Dozen projections will be posted here at 9am.

Send my best wishes to JackW. I miss his wit and look forward to his return after he completes his business.

Will do. Although you reference him at the end like an old dog.

KW for JackW

Scott_P

JosiasJessop said:

Yes, there are real reasons to be concerned about this sort of move, especially (as is probable) private and sensitive data will be held on the cloud.

Then again, governmental data security is a bit of a joke anyway (and this goes for all governments, and I'm not just talking about data discs going missing).

The G-cloud is not 'the Cloud'

It's not Internet accessible, it should go via the PSN

alex

Are there any estimates for the numbers of voters who basically live outside of Scotland but have managed to engineer a vote through finding a way to register at Scottish addresses? Including students at other UK universities i suppose.

CarlottaVance

Financier said:

YG Indy Ref:

Do you think Scotland would be
economically better or worse off if it
became an independent country, or would
it make no difference?

Better off:35 (+3)
Worse off: 44(-2)
No Diff: 11(+1)

Do you think you personally would be
financially better or worse off if Scotland
became an independent country, or would
it make no difference?

Better off: 21 (+2)
Worse off: 41(-1)
No Diff: 24(+2)

Scotland Net 'Better off':
ABC1: -17
C2DE: -3

You Personally Better off (net)
ABC1: -26
C2DE: -15

hamiltonace

Stuart_Dickson said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

Contrary to many on here, I expect Labour to be resurgent in Scotland very rapidly as the warnings the No side gave prior to the vote largely turn out to be correct.

Anecdote alert - long time tribal Glasgow Labour friend (loathes SNP and all their works, reckons first 10-15 years will be tough) has decided 'Yes'

That is extremely common. That is why I have a little smile every time a BritNat writes "the nationalists" or "YESNP" when referring to the Yes campaign. It shows that they haven't got the faintest clue about the types of people backing Yes, or, more importantly, why.

The No campaign are running blind.

Our best guesstimates are that approx 40% of SLab voters favour Yes over No. Some feel strongly about it (about half) and will definitely vote Yes. But it is the remaining 20% of weak Yes SLab voters that are absolutely critical to the result. Alistair Darling standing up on national tv to defend the Lib-Con attacks on the NHS is not helping Johanna Lamont's effort to keep that key 20% on board.

The YESSNP slogan is a barb that is working which is why Stuart is so dismissive of it. Salmond is like marmite you either like or hate him. There is a fight for the traditional Glaswegian working class protestant male vote. Rangers play at home 2 days before the vote. 50,000 key voters singing I was born under the Union Jack and No Surrender. Expect Govan to be rocking.

Rexel56

RobD said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

CarlottaVance said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

CarlottaVance said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

Des anyone know, or have a good estimate, of the number of Scottish electors who aren't Scottish? If the "No" majority is smaller than that number the fireworks will surely fly - and I'm not talking celebration, either...

There has been polling among non-Scotland born voters in SINDY - by a substantial margin, against - and clearly enough to tip the balance in the event of a close run-No.

Another source of division, post-SindyRef.....

how much of AYE is driven by patriotism, and how much by racist rancour?

At a guess 90:10 at very worst - just the racists, as everywhere, tend to be more shouty so appear more numerous than they actually are.......The overwhelming majority of Scots will want to have continuing good relations with England and the English - its unfortunate that the preposterous prospectus of fibs they have been sold independence on will make this difficult - as we can see in the polling of English voters.

I do hope you're right. The evidence of this Forum is against you.

I don't think this forum is representative of the population at large. If so, God help us....

If Carswell has his way on direct democracy, forums like this will be setting government policy in future...

JosiasJessop

Scott_P said:

JosiasJessop said:

Yes, there are real reasons to be concerned about this sort of move, especially (as is probable) private and sensitive data will be held on the cloud.

Then again, governmental data security is a bit of a joke anyway (and this goes for all governments, and I'm not just talking about data discs going missing).

The G-cloud is not 'the Cloud'

It's not Internet accessible, it should go via the PSN

Ah, fair enough. That should, in theory, help it be more secure.

JosiasJessop

Monksfield said:

Please let this Boris Island idiocy now be buried. This was little more than an environmental disaster in the making. Wrong on almost all counts.

Care to expand on that thought?

Socrates

hucks67 said:

JosiasJessop said:

Breaking news:

Boris Island rejected.

My view: this is a big, big mistake long-term.

Where is the money coming from to build this ? Cost would exceed £100 billion and take much longer to build. Gatwick and Heathrow are already there, with it being much cheaper and easier to build additional capacity.

Also some relief can be provided by boosting flights from Birmingham, Glasgow and Manchester. When I have spoken to other passengers on flights, it has amazed me how they have spent hours travelling to Heathrow just to get a flight for a holiday. If there was a flight option at a nearer airport they would have taken it. Quite a lot of people from parts of the UK get flights to other European hub airports to fly to long haul destinations, because it is cheaper and/or more convenient.

All I know it that it's insane to build at Heathrow. Any proper economic decision from the government should include the costs of the externality of noise. It makes far more sense to build somewhere that affects less people. If you want London to be an attractive place to live, blighting it with constant planes going over ahead isn't going to help it compete with Singapore, Sydney and San Francisco in the global city stakes.

Gatwick makes far more sense. It would also break Heathrow's monopoly.

JohnLilburne

MattW said:

>The Kings say they are going to take legal action against Southampton General Hospital

Personally I hope they take action against the Assistant Chief Constable as well, since I can se e little valid reason for using criminal procedures against people who seem to have committed no offence, complete with a full-on media witch-hunt.

Why did he even get a European Arrest Warrant?

It is only 2 months since the Chief Constable of Nottinghamshire declared that he would treat consensual sexting amongst 17 year olds (here's me in a bikini, darling) as distribution of child pornograhpy.
http://www.nottinghampost.com/Police-blitz-sexting-school-kids/story-21740344-detail/story.html

And shortly after this, we heard about policemen who refused to prosecute the serious serial sexual abuse of 11-year-old girls because it was "consensual". (Although this might have been a proxy for "because the perpetrator is of a particular ethnic origin"). I ask you.

MonikerDiCanio

CarlottaVance said:

Financier said:

YG Indy Ref:

Do you think Scotland would be
economically better or worse off if it
became an independent country, or would
it make no difference?

Better off:35 (+3)
Worse off: 44(-2)
No Diff: 11(+1)

Do you think you personally would be
financially better or worse off if Scotland
became an independent country, or would
it make no difference?

Better off: 21 (+2)
Worse off: 41(-1)
No Diff: 24(+2)

Scotland Net 'Better off':
ABC1: -17
C2DE: -3

You Personally Better off (net)
ABC1: -26
C2DE: -15

Surely the killer. Jack's McArse will be vindicated.

malcolmg

I see the lovely unionists , Carlotta, Charles and Davidl were supporting thugs beating up women as just being unfortunate last night and suggesting the unconscious pregnant woman was faking. How very unionist.

dugarbandier

hamiltonace said:

Rangers play at home 2 days before the vote. 50,000 key voters singing I was born under the Union Jack and No Surrender. Expect Govan to be rocking.

will they really get 50000 for a league cup evening KO? impressive if so.

The rangers fans that I know (mostly educated, to be fair, rather than proletarian) are far from unanimous on independence, songs notwithstanding.

alex

I read somewhere that the closeness of the Quebec vote, or perhaps more accurately the fact that in the days before hand it looked like the separatists would win, was ironically one reason why it is now dead as an issue for the foreseeable future. The prospect that it might actually happen spooked the markets dramatically and gave the voters a proper look into the abyss that they almost jumped into.

If Scotland vote yes and there is a dramatic reaction with capital flight, and financial institutions making panicked announcements that they will be immediately relocating then things could get very interesting very quickly. I suppose in some ways that might be what the SNP are banking on, with the panicked response from Govt to backtrack on currency union (although i still don't know if the SNP REALLY want a currency union - it was perhaps a mistake from the Govt to completely rule it out, rather than state the terms upon which it would be theoretically acceptable (whilst making those terms obviously unacceptable to the SNP).

S**t, still haven't got around to opening that HSBC bank account...

hucks67

JosiasJessop said:

hucks67 said:

JosiasJessop said:

Breaking news:

Boris Island rejected.

My view: this is a big, big mistake long-term.

Where is the money coming from to build this ? Cost would exceed £100 billion and take much longer to build. Gatwick and Heathrow are already there, with it being much cheaper and easier to build additional capacity.

Also some relief can be provided by boosting flights from Birmingham, Glasgow and Manchester. When I have spoken to other passengers on flights, it has amazed me how they have spent hours travelling to Heathrow just to get a flight for a holiday. If there was a flight option at a nearer airport they would have taken it. Quite a lot of people from parts of the UK get flights to other European hub airports to fly to long haul destinations, because it is cheaper and/or more convenient.

"with it being much cheaper and easier to build additional capacity."

According to the estimates, yes. But you are not comparing like-with-like. The additional capacity that you get from a third Heathrow runway is tiny compared to the real and potential capacity you get from a brand-new hub.

Heathrow is in the wrong place, is hemmed in by settlements, and every expansion is increasingly massively expensive.

It has served us well, but it's had its day.

Agree with your second paragraph.

One of my Aunties/Uncles lived right next to Heathrow along time ago. I can just about remember that aircraft were so low landing/taking off, that I could see the passengers and pilots. The contstant noise was awful, so I can totally understand why people living there don't want expansion. But the fact is that even if you started to build another new airport in Kent, it would not open until 2030 at the earliest. Meanwhile Heathrow is running at 100% capacity, with safety issues of being limited to two working runways.

I think the best option is a third runway at Heathow, another runway at Gatwick and expansion of other regional airports.

malcolmg

Innocent_Abroad said:

Des anyone know, or have a good estimate, of the number of Scottish electors who aren't Scottish? If the "No" majority is smaller than that number the fireworks will surely fly - and I'm not talking celebration, either...

There are 400 thousand English people for starters , not sure how many EU but fair amount from Poland as well.

CarlottaVance

malcolmg said:

I see the lovely unionists , Carlotta, Charles and Davidl were supporting thugs beating up women as just being unfortunate last night and suggesting the unconscious pregnant woman was faking. How very unionist.

You have watched the video?

Apologised for the 'Yes Shop Burnt Down' lie either?

Monksfield

JosiasJessop said:

Monksfield said:

Please let this Boris Island idiocy now be buried. This was little more than an environmental disaster in the making. Wrong on almost all counts.

Care to expand on that thought?

Concreting over some of the most important areas of coastal habitat in the SE, not to mention all the attendant development that would blight the whole Estuary area. The Thames Estuary is after the Wash, the most important area in the UK for migrant and wintering shorebirds. How can we possibly expect China, Korea etc., to respect wildlife conventions for the Pacific flyway when we would be trashing one of the most important sites of the West Atlantic flyway. There are no credible plans for mitigation. Boris Island was always more about self promotion of Boris than it was about developing a credible, sustainable solution and thankfully the Commission has called it.

Notwithstanding that Geographically, it would be badly sited for most of the population; admittedly H and G are not much better, but that's no reason to make things worse. We have to look at developing use of Manchester, Birmingham etc, alongside developing H and G. We also have to look at pricing flight to reflect its environmental costs.

malcolmg

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Note for Innocent_Abroad:

The English Scots for Yes page has only 2,082 likes. That is a lot less than a lot of "village X for Yes" pages.

https://www.facebook.com/englishscotsforyes

I know lots of English Scots who back independence (many are members of my party), however I know a heck of a lot more who vehemently oppose it.

I wonder if the guy running Wings over Scotland will actually have the courage to move to Scotland ?

Alan,
He may be happy living in England, because he wants the best for Scotland does not mean he has to live there. Many Scots , Irish and English choose to live outside their birth countries for many reasons.

malcolmg

Innocent_Abroad said:

CarlottaVance said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

Des anyone know, or have a good estimate, of the number of Scottish electors who aren't Scottish? If the "No" majority is smaller than that number the fireworks will surely fly - and I'm not talking celebration, either...

There has been polling among non-Scotland born voters in SINDY - by a substantial margin, against - and clearly enough to tip the balance in the event of a close run-No.

Another source of division, post-SindyRef.....

I know what they think, CV, I just don't know how many there are of them! My expectation is that if "AYE" loses by less than ten points, its activists will point to this number, and if needs be the number of voters over 80 (or 75, or whatever) and argue that they have been cheated of their future by foreigners and by their past. It's a recipe for the formation of terrorist groups.

Next question - and I'm still working this one out - is this. The UK Parliament decides it is prepared to grant Scotland independence - whether in the event of an AYE or a close NO - provided that Scotland has a written constitution guaranteeing, among other things, the personal safety of non-Scottish nationals in an independent Scotland. Independence to follow the ratification of such a constitution in a further referendum. I suspect such a move would split the AYEs, and not least the SNP itself, down the middle: the genuine patriots, who would see it as a reasonable price to pay for what they want, and those who are merely filled with hatred of the English, who would not. So the question is this - how much of AYE is driven by patriotism, and how much by racist rancour?

What an absolute turnip, there is nothing racist in it , you flatter yourself to think we give a hoot about anything other than a decent Scotland making its own decisions.
We will be well shot of tossers like you, luckily you do not represent the majority of England.

malcolmg

JackW said:

KW posting for JackW

Latest ARSE for the 2015 general election and JackW Dozen projections will be posted here at 9am.

Poor old Jack his mission in Edinburgh is not going to well, the bottom is falling out of his ARSE

JosiasJessop

hucks67 said:

One of my Aunties/Uncles lived right next to Heathrow along time ago. I can just about remember that aircraft were so low landing/taking off, that I could see the passengers and pilots. The contstant noise was awful, so I can totally understand why people living there don't want expansion. But the fact is that even if you started to build another new airport in Kent, it would not open until 2030 at the earliest. Meanwhile Heathrow is running at 100% capacity, with safety issues of being limited to two working runways.

I think the best option is a third runway at Heathow, another runway at Gatwick and expansion of other regional airports.

Heathrow's fifth terminal cost £4 billion, and took nineteen years from conception to opening, and seven years from planning being granted to opening. (1)

The cost of a third runway will be much more as the disruption will be so much greater, and the timescales the same or longer, so I would be surprised if it was open before 2030. The extra capacity gained would also be relatively little.

This leads to the question as to whether planning processes should be altered for national-critical infrastructure projects.

And I don't believe Heathrow when they say the new runway will be privately financed, especially with regards to all the ancillary work needed: the cost of the public inquiry, the access roads, M25 updating etcetera.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_Heathrow_Terminal_5#Plans

malcolmg

RobD said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

CarlottaVance said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

CarlottaVance said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

Des anyone know, or have a good estimate, of the number of Scottish electors who aren't Scottish? If the "No" majority is smaller than that number the fireworks will surely fly - and I'm not talking celebration, either...

There has been polling among non-Scotland born voters in SINDY - by a substantial margin, against - and clearly enough to tip the balance in the event of a close run-No.

Another source of division, post-SindyRef.....

how much of AYE is driven by patriotism, and how much by racist rancour?

At a guess 90:10 at very worst - just the racists, as everywhere, tend to be more shouty so appear more numerous than they actually are.......The overwhelming majority of Scots will want to have continuing good relations with England and the English - its unfortunate that the preposterous prospectus of fibs they have been sold independence on will make this difficult - as we can see in the polling of English voters.

I do hope you're right. The evidence of this Forum is against you.

I don't think this forum is representative of the population at large. If so, God help us....

For sure it would make England a racist hell hole if it was representative

dr_spyn

@monksfield pricing the flights to keep us in?

Innocent_Abroad

malcolmg said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

CarlottaVance said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

Des anyone know, or have a good estimate, of the number of Scottish electors who aren't Scottish? If the "No" majority is smaller than that number the fireworks will surely fly - and I'm not talking celebration, either...

There has been polling among non-Scotland born voters in SINDY - by a substantial margin, against - and clearly enough to tip the balance in the event of a close run-No.

Another source of division, post-SindyRef.....

I know what they think, CV, I just don't know how many there are of them! My expectation is that if "AYE" loses by less than ten points, its activists will point to this number, and if needs be the number of voters over 80 (or 75, or whatever) and argue that they have been cheated of their future by foreigners and by their past. It's a recipe for the formation of terrorist groups.

Next question - and I'm still working this one out - is this. The UK Parliament decides it is prepared to grant Scotland independence - whether in the event of an AYE or a close NO - provided that Scotland has a written constitution guaranteeing, among other things, the personal safety of non-Scottish nationals in an independent Scotland. Independence to follow the ratification of such a constitution in a further referendum. I suspect such a move would split the AYEs, and not least the SNP itself, down the middle: the genuine patriots, who would see it as a reasonable price to pay for what they want, and those who are merely filled with hatred of the English, who would not. So the question is this - how much of AYE is driven by patriotism, and how much by racist rancour?

What an absolute turnip, there is nothing racist in it , you flatter yourself to think we give a hoot about anything other than a decent Scotland making its own decisions.
We will be well shot of tossers like you, luckily you do not represent the majority of England.

So, Malcolm, England would be a better place if I topped myself, yes?

malcolmg

CarlottaVance said:

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

Des anyone know, or have a good estimate, of the number of Scottish electors who aren't Scottish? If the "No" majority is smaller than that number the fireworks will surely fly - and I'm not talking celebration, either...

At the 2001 census approx 7% of people resident in Scotland were "Other white British" (ie. white English, white Welsh, white Ulster). That figure is probably higher now. Guesstimate: 9% (?)

1% white Irish

1.5% other white

2% minority ethnic groups

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2004/02/18876/32939

I realise that those stats are old and do not answer your exact question, but they are the best I could come up with with 3 minutes googling.

So, let us assume that approx 10% of the Scottish population "aren't Scottish" (your words note; this is a very problematic and controversial definition by the way).

Let us also assume that No wins with a majority of less than 10 points (eg. last night's YouGov).

Well, it doesn't take a genius to work out who would have "won" it for PM David Cameron. And it won't have been The Sun.

Horses for courses.

Since 20% of all people born in Scotland live elsewhere in the UK and can't vote, nobody can really say what Scots think. The Indyref is a survey of people resident in Scotland.

So, now the independence referendum is reduced to the status of "a survey" is it? Ho ho. Look who's losing.

Just 16 days to save the Yoonyun.

And as for losing YES hasn't been ahead once in the campaign, it shows you chaps can't do maths.

contaminated database of (ahem) "respondents".

Personally I think NO will still win.

Postal votes are being cast - and NO is still ahead in the polls - have YES left it too late?

We'll know soon enough.

And if it is a YES, the reaction from England will not be the anticipated wailing and gnashing of teeth - more 'Here's your hat, where's your hurry' and 'You've made your bed - you lie in it...'

However they may also be too busy saving themselves to be worrying about being bitter

dr_spyn

LATEST:South Yorkshire police initiates "fully independent and impartial investigation" into force's handling of Rotherham abuse.

No details yet on BBC.

Financier

On Thread:

YG 2010 VI Averaged VI Allocation for August:

Cons to Con:76.6 (-0.9);
Cons to LAB: 4.5 (-0.2)
Cons to LD:0.9 (0)
Cons to UKIP: 15.8 (+0.9)
Cons to Green: 0.9 (0)

LAB to LAB: 83.6 (+0.4)
LAB to Cons: 4.5 (-0.5)
LAB to LD: 1.3 (_0.3)
LAB to UKIP: 5.8 (0)
LAB to Green: 2.3 (0)

LD to LD: 30.7 (+0.2)
LD to Con: 14.4 (+0.4)
LD to LAB: 33.6 (+0.8)
LD to UKIP: 9.5 (-0.5)
LD to Green: 9.2 (-0.8)

JosiasJessop

Monksfield said:

JosiasJessop said:

Monksfield said:

Please let this Boris Island idiocy now be buried. This was little more than an environmental disaster in the making. Wrong on almost all counts.

Care to expand on that thought?

Concreting over some of the most important areas of coastal habitat in the SE, not to mention all the attendant development that would blight the whole Estuary area. The Thames Estuary is after the Wash, the most important area in the UK for migrant and wintering shorebirds. How can we possibly expect China, Korea etc., to respect wildlife conventions for the Pacific flyway when we would be trashing one of the most important sites of the West Atlantic flyway. There are no credible plans for mitigation. Boris Island was always more about self promotion of Boris than it was about developing a credible, sustainable solution and thankfully the Commission has called it.

Notwithstanding that Geographically, it would be badly sited for most of the population; admittedly H and G are not much better, but that's no reason to make things worse. We have to look at developing use of Manchester, Birmingham etc, alongside developing H and G. We also have to look at pricing flight to reflect its environmental costs.

Ah, so you want to protect the birds. Well, we can do that all the better if we are a rich, prosperous nation rather than one that is hamstrung by individual's pet wishes (the Severn Barrage is another example).

Conservation effects can be mitigated. Your solution is one of industrial decline.

Financier

dr_spyn said:

LATEST:South Yorkshire police initiates "fully independent and impartial investigation" into force's handling of Rotherham abuse.

No details yet on BBC.

Both South Yorks police and Rotherham council declined to appear on last night's Panorama on this matter. The programme mainly featured the number of times that complaints by the abused and impartial investigators were brushed aside or redacted by the Council and ignored by the police.

malcolmg

hamiltonace said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

Contrary to many on here, I expect Labour to be resurgent in Scotland very rapidly as the warnings the No side gave prior to the vote largely turn out to be correct.

Anecdote alert - long time tribal Glasgow Labour friend (loathes SNP and all their works, reckons first 10-15 years will be tough) has decided 'Yes'

That is extremely common. That is why I have a little smile every time a BritNat writes "the nationalists" or "YESNP" when referring to the Yes campaign. It shows that they haven't got the faintest clue about the types of people backing Yes, or, more importantly, why.

The No campaign are running blind.

Our best guesstimates are that approx 40% of SLab voters favour Yes over No. Some feel strongly about it (about half) and will definitely vote Yes. But it is the remaining 20% of weak Yes SLab voters that are absolutely critical to the result. Alistair Darling standing up on national tv to defend the Lib-Con attacks on the NHS is not helping Johanna Lamont's effort to keep that key 20% on board.

The YESSNP slogan is a barb that is working which is why Stuart is so dismissive of it. Salmond is like marmite you either like or hate him. There is a fight for the traditional Glaswegian working class protestant male vote. Rangers play at home 2 days before the vote. 50,000 key voters singing I was born under the Union Jack and No Surrender. Expect Govan to be rocking.

You got your sash ironed and flute polished all ready then. Not all Rangers supporters are as thick as you , all the intelligent ones are for YES. The knuckledraggers are a lost cause but are a minority.

Rexel56

In the event of a Yes vote, I would expect both Scottish Government and rUK party leaders to make immediate announcements designed to manage the risk inherent in the independence process. Amongst these would be a five year period for independence to happen and a ten year currency union (or until Scotland joins the EU and adopts the Euro) whichever is the sooner... It serves nobody's interest for a fractious negotiation to ensue and, once he has won the vote Salmon will recognise this...

dr_spyn

Sky News have somthing about Labour suspending some Rotherham Councillors - http://news.sky.com/story/1328693/rotherham-abuse-labour-suspends-members

Stuart_Dickson

Coral have just lengthened their No price to 2/7 (1.29). That is the best No price since June.

malcolmg

dugarbandier said:

hamiltonace said:

Rangers play at home 2 days before the vote. 50,000 key voters singing I was born under the Union Jack and No Surrender. Expect Govan to be rocking.

will they really get 50000 for a league cup evening KO? impressive if so.

The rangers fans that I know (mostly educated, to be fair, rather than proletarian) are far from unanimous on independence, songs notwithstanding.

They struggled to get 30K last Saturday , most sensible fans are realising that they are constantly being fleeced by conmen and staying away, Hamilton will be one of the not so bright ones that will keep handing them his cash till the bitter end.

JackW

malcolmg said:

JackW said:

KW posting for JackW

Latest ARSE for the 2015 general election and JackW Dozen projections will be posted here at 9am.

Poor old Jack his mission in Edinburgh is not going to well, the bottom is falling out of his ARSE

KW posting for JackW

I'm sorry but I'm not aware what you're talking about?

rottenborough

malcolmg said:

CarlottaVance said:

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Alanbrooke said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

Des anyone know, or have a good estimate, of the number of Scottish electors who aren't Scottish? If the "No" majority is smaller than that number the fireworks will surely fly - and I'm not talking celebration, either...

At the 2001 census approx 7% of people resident in Scotland were "Other white British" (ie. white English, white Welsh, white Ulster). That figure is probably higher now. Guesstimate: 9% (?)

1% white Irish

1.5% other white

2% minority ethnic groups

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2004/02/18876/32939

I realise that those stats are old and do not answer your exact question, but they are the best I could come up with with 3 minutes googling.

So, let us assume that approx 10% of the Scottish population "aren't Scottish" (your words note; this is a very problematic and controversial definition by the way).

Let us also assume that No wins with a majority of less than 10 points (eg. last night's YouGov).

Well, it doesn't take a genius to work out who would have "won" it for PM David Cameron. And it won't have been The Sun.

Horses for courses.

Since 20% of all people born in Scotland live elsewhere in the UK and can't vote, nobody can really say what Scots think. The Indyref is a survey of people resident in Scotland.

So, now the independence referendum is reduced to the status of "a survey" is it? Ho ho. Look who's losing.

Just 16 days to save the Yoonyun.

And as for losing YES hasn't been ahead once in the campaign, it shows you chaps can't do maths.

contaminated database of (ahem) "respondents".

Personally I think NO will still win.

Postal votes are being cast - and NO is still ahead in the polls - have YES left it too late?

We'll know soon enough.

And if it is a YES, the reaction from England will not be the anticipated wailing and gnashing of teeth - more 'Here's your hat, where's your hurry' and 'You've made your bed - you lie in it...'

However they may also be too busy saving themselves to be worrying about being bitter

I don't suppose we know much about the demographics of postal voters. But maybe likely to be older and therefore more 'No' given some of the polling?

OldKingCole

JosiasJessop said:

Monksfield said:

JosiasJessop said:

Monksfield said:

Please let this Boris Island idiocy now be buried. This was little more than an environmental disaster in the making. Wrong on almost all counts.

Care to expand on that thought?

Concreting over some of the most important areas of coastal habitat in the SE, not to mention all the attendant development that would blight the whole Estuary area. The Thames Estuary is after the Wash, the most important area in the UK for migrant and wintering shorebirds. How can we possibly expect China, Korea etc., to respect wildlife conventions for the Pacific flyway when we would be trashing one of the most important sites of the West Atlantic flyway. There are no credible plans for mitigation. Boris Island was always more about self promotion of Boris than it was about developing a credible, sustainable solution and thankfully the Commission has called it.

Notwithstanding that Geographically, it would be badly sited for most of the population; admittedly H and G are not much better, but that's no reason to make things worse. We have to look at developing use of Manchester, Birmingham etc, alongside developing H and G. We also have to look at pricing flight to reflect its environmental costs.

Ah, so you want to protect the birds. Well, we can do that all the better if we are a rich, prosperous nation rather than one that is hamstrung by individual's pet wishes (the Severn Barrage is another example).

Conservation effects can be mitigated. Your solution is one of industrial decline.

This was the second suggestion for such an airport. Thir first was some 40 years ago, and based North of the Thames mouth, around Foulness Island. The Foulness scheme fell partly admittedly because of conservation issues but also because of the enormous disruption to established communities which would have resulted.

Big problem, of course, is what are we going to do with airports when the oil runs out, or at least gets a lot less available than it is now? Would not an offshore island airport end up being a total white elephant not too liong after it was built?

alex

SeanT said:

alex said:

I read somewhere that the closeness of the Quebec vote, or perhaps more accurately the fact that in the days before hand it looked like the separatists would win, was ironically one reason why it is now dead as an issue for the foreseeable future. The prospect that it might actually happen spooked the markets dramatically and gave the voters a proper look into the abyss that they almost jumped into.

If Scotland vote yes and there is a dramatic reaction with capital flight, and financial institutions making panicked announcements that they will be immediately relocating then things could get very interesting very quickly. I suppose in some ways that might be what the SNP are banking on, with the panicked response from Govt to backtrack on currency union (although i still don't know if the SNP REALLY want a currency union - it was perhaps a mistake from the Govt to completely rule it out, rather than state the terms upon which it would be theoretically acceptable (whilst making those terms obviously unacceptable to the SNP).

S**t, still haven't got around to opening that HSBC bank account...

In all seriousness I would move any money south of the border now. We're breaking up 300 year old country with one part, Scotland, promising to renege on debt and no chance of a formal currency union unless it's on terms which Scotland cannot accept (England deciding fiscal and taxation matters for the Scots etc).

The effects won't be immediate. There won't be wolverines in Leith on September 19th, but a gradual realisation of the horrific complexities and plunging uncertainties will take hold. Investment into the UK will dry up etc etc

I would also move money out of sterling. I cannot see how cutting the country in half is going to boost global confidence in the British £. I reckon the pound might tank, over time, as the chaos slowly unfurls.

Not a pleasant prospect, as I sit here in the Rhineland Palatinate.

The whole thing is very worrying, but i still think a bit of perspective is needed. Scotland is a country of 5 million people. The rest of the UK is 55 million +. In fact this is a reality which some of the vocal Yes side, including some on here no names, have failed to grasp and have grossly overestimated the strength of an Independent Scotland's negotiating position and subsequent existence. Because Oil and Whisky are of fundamental importance to Scotland's future they seem to think that it is also fundamental to the UK as a whole and we will struggle without it. The debate about whether Scotland is a net contributor or not to the UK is very important to an Independent Scotland, it's pretty much roundings to the rest of the UK. If Scottish financial institutions announce on September 19th that they are relocating to the UK will it have that much long term impact?

malcolmg

Innocent_Abroad said:

malcolmg said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

CarlottaVance said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

Des anyone know, or have a good estimate, of the number of Scottish electors who aren't Scottish? If the "No" majority is smaller than that number the fireworks will surely fly - and I'm not talking celebration, either...

There has been polling among non-Scotland born voters in SINDY - by a substantial margin, against - and clearly enough to tip the balance in the event of a close run-No.

Another source of division, post-SindyRef.....

I know what they think, CV, I just don't know how many there are of them! My expectation is that if "AYE" loses by less than ten points, its activists will point to this number, and if needs be the number of voters over 80 (or 75, or whatever) and argue that they have been cheated of their future by foreigners and by their past. It's a recipe for the formation of terrorist groups.

Next question - and I'm still working this one out - is this. The UK Parliament decides it is prepared to grant Scotland independence - whether in the event of an AYE or a close NO - provided that Scotland has a written constitution guaranteeing, among other things, the personal safety of non-Scottish nationals in an independent Scotland. Independence to follow the ratification of such a constitution in a further referendum. I suspect such a move would split the AYEs, and not least the SNP itself, down the middle: the genuine patriots, who would see it as a reasonable price to pay for what they want, and those who are merely filled with hatred of the English, who would not. So the question is this - how much of AYE is driven by patriotism, and how much by racist rancour?

What an absolute turnip, there is nothing racist in it , you flatter yourself to think we give a hoot about anything other than a decent Scotland making its own decisions.
We will be well shot of tossers like you, luckily you do not represent the majority of England.

So, Malcolm, England would be a better place if I topped myself, yes?

You show how stupid you are by posting such juvenile stuff, grow up you loon.

JackW

Posted by KW for JackW

BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Change from 19th August Projection) :

Con 307 (-7) .. Lab 277 (+4) .. LibDem 32 .. SNP 8 .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 (+2) .. Respect 1 (+1) .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1

Conservatives 19 seats short of a majority
Labour 49 seats short of a majority
......................................................................................

"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :

Bury North - TCTC
Pudsey - TCTC
Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain
Warwickshire North - Likely Lab Gain
Cambridge - Likely LibDem Hold
Ipswich - TCTC
Watford - TCTC
Croydon Central - Likely Con Hold
Enfield - TCTC
Cornwall North - TCTC
Great Yarmouth - Con Hold
Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold
Ochil and South Perthshire - Likely Lab Hold

Changes From 19th August - Bury North moves from Likely Con Hold to TCTC

TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
Gain/Hold - Over 2500 votes
.......................................................................................

WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors

.......................................................................................

Posted by KW for JackW

OldKingCole

JackW said:

malcolmg said:

JackW said:

KW posting for JackW

Latest ARSE for the 2015 general election and JackW Dozen projections will be posted here at 9am.

Poor old Jack his mission in Edinburgh is not going to well, the bottom is falling out of his ARSE

KW posting for JackW

I'm sorry but I'm not aware what you're talking about?

Don’t fret Jack. Malcolm doesn’t know what he’s talking about either! Or so it appears!

Financier

YG VI: 34/35/7/14/5

On handling specific problems:
%age of Labour VI supporting Labour on:

Asylum & immigration: 47%
Europe: 58%
Law & order: 68%
Economy: 68%
Tax: 68%
Benefits: 74%
Unemployment: 75%
Housing: 78%
Education: 80%
Health: 84%

malcolmg

JackW said:

malcolmg said:

JackW said:

KW posting for JackW

Latest ARSE for the 2015 general election and JackW Dozen projections will be posted here at 9am.

Poor old Jack his mission in Edinburgh is not going to well, the bottom is falling out of his ARSE

KW posting for JackW

I'm sorry but I'm not aware what you're talking about?

Jack your pathetic kidding on you are not actually there is incredible. Not going to well up in Edinburgh is it.

Roger

"At the 2001 census approx 7% of people resident in Scotland were "Other white British" (ie. white English, white Welsh, white Ulster). That figure is probably higher now. Guesstimate: 9% (?)"

I recently visited a fete in by a very pretty port in Alex Salmond's Banff and Buchan constituency and I was surprised by the number of English accents. Of maybe a thousand there I'd estimate a quarter to be English. Many I have to say manning the SNP/Yes tents. Being just up the coast from Aberdeen which has a large non Scottish population I suppose this isn't surprising.

As for who to blame if NO loses obviously-as any YES campaigner will tell you-number one is Thatcher number two is Cameron/Iain Duncan Smith for the bedroom tax. Though it's insignificant in itself it's totemic of why a left leaning Scotland wants out from Tory Westminster