Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Unique poll IndyRef poll confined to Scottish women only fi

124»

Comments

  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,218

    malcolmg said:

    Patrick said:

    malcolmg said:

    TGOHF said:

    malcolmg said:

    TGOHF said:

    Patrick said:

    One thing is for damned sure - PB on the morning after the Sindy result is going to be fun!

    Some humble pie will need to be eaten by the bucketload. I'm very much of the opinion that it will be PlanktonG doing the piemunching. But it just might be all of us 'believe the polls' mob. Either way it'll be a hoot.

    When is the count ? Overnight ?
    Think result will be known early hours.

    Good - I hate those 9am next day start counts - or even worse wait until Sunday.
    I fly out Friday morning on holiday ( assuming I still have a valid passport ) so be glad also.
    You shirking your impending piemunching duties Malc? I do hope you can pen at least one little 'I was utterly wrong and apologise unreservedly for all the abuse' post from the departure lounge.
    Patrick , I will try to get a gloat in before leaving. As I only use old phone , refuse to have e-mail access etc I will not be able to do from airport. Holiday will be e-mail and spreadsheet free as well.
    Oh, I’m sure that in the considerably unlikely event of a Yes vote you’ll find a means of gloating.
    I will be magnanimous in victory for sure, but will have exceptions for the more odious creatures. Patrick is not in that category may I add.
  • Options
    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    malcolmg said:

    Neil said:

    malcolmg said:


    Lots of pictures of packed meetings organised by YES but dearth of NO meetings and when you see stalls NO is always abandoned. So on the face of it if they are there they are very very very shy.

    Or they have better things to do with their time?
    Many will have but you would expect it to be more even at least.
    Why? Why would people flock to meetings about how things will remain the same if we vote no? I've been involved in campaigns where my side is way more enthusiastic than the opposition and I can assure you there is a huge difference between posters / bumper stickers / meeting attendances and actual votes.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,218
    Patrick said:

    malcolmg said:

    Patrick said:

    malcolmg said:

    TGOHF said:

    malcolmg said:

    TGOHF said:

    Patrick said:

    One thing is for damned sure - PB on the morning after the Sindy result is going to be fun!

    Some humble pie will need to be eaten by the bucketload. I'm very much of the opinion that it will be PlanktonG doing the piemunching. But it just might be all of us 'believe the polls' mob. Either way it'll be a hoot.

    When is the count ? Overnight ?
    Think result will be known early hours.

    Good - I hate those 9am next day start counts - or even worse wait until Sunday.
    I fly out Friday morning on holiday ( assuming I still have a valid passport ) so be glad also.
    You shirking your impending piemunching duties Malc? I do hope you can pen at least one little 'I was utterly wrong and apologise unreservedly for all the abuse' post from the departure lounge.
    Patrick , I will try to get a gloat in before leaving. As I only use old phone , refuse to have e-mail access etc I will not be able to do from airport. Holiday will be e-mail and spreadsheet free as well.
    Sounds good Malc! I'll lead the turnip mea culpa drive if it's a YES.
    LOL, lots of mashed neeps for sure.
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,071
    Nearly 40% of the electorate voted for Nick Clegg last time in Hallam. That's pretty impressive in this day and age of low turnouts and split votes. The ICM weighted sample in May had him on 15%. So nearly 2/3 of those who voted for him last time are now not prepared to say they will next time. That should be enough to get the alarm bells ringing.

    There doesn't appear to be any tactical voting benefit either. He appears to have lost more support to the Tories than he has gained. Tories just will not vote tactically. That will do for Wee Danny in Inverness, Clegg I'm not so sure about.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,395
    On topic, I wonder what the SNP would be polling without Salmond as leader?

    Holyrood magazine ‏@HolyroodDaily 16 mins
    Salmond says Survation poll found that the SNP got 43% support from women. Labour got 27%. #fmqs
  • Options
    malcolmg said:

    Neil said:

    malcolmg said:


    Lots of pictures of packed meetings organised by YES but dearth of NO meetings and when you see stalls NO is always abandoned. So on the face of it if they are there they are very very very shy.

    Or they have better things to do with their time?
    Many will have but you would expect it to be more even at least. It does all seem very strange as polls and media all have NO as miles ahead but in Scotland on the ground it does not appear that way. Relatives of mine who are NO / DK will be very unlikely to bother to vote, whereas the ones for YES are certain to vote.
    Worst case it will be an awful lot closer than BT and media would have you believe, it does not feel like NO are ahead. May be wishful thinking I suppose.
    It's almost over now. We'll see a continued move towards the status quo over the closing weeks and Antifrank's 66:33 :: No:Yes shall come to pass.
  • Options
    malcolmg said:

    Patrick said:

    malcolmg said:

    Patrick said:

    malcolmg said:

    TGOHF said:

    malcolmg said:

    TGOHF said:

    Patrick said:

    One thing is for damned sure - PB on the morning after the Sindy result is going to be fun!

    Some humble pie will need to be eaten by the bucketload. I'm very much of the opinion that it will be PlanktonG doing the piemunching. But it just might be all of us 'believe the polls' mob. Either way it'll be a hoot.

    When is the count ? Overnight ?
    Think result will be known early hours.

    Good - I hate those 9am next day start counts - or even worse wait until Sunday.
    I fly out Friday morning on holiday ( assuming I still have a valid passport ) so be glad also.
    You shirking your impending piemunching duties Malc? I do hope you can pen at least one little 'I was utterly wrong and apologise unreservedly for all the abuse' post from the departure lounge.
    Patrick , I will try to get a gloat in before leaving. As I only use old phone , refuse to have e-mail access etc I will not be able to do from airport. Holiday will be e-mail and spreadsheet free as well.
    Sounds good Malc! I'll lead the turnip mea culpa drive if it's a YES.
    LOL, lots of mashed neeps for sure.
    I'll feel honour-bound to wash it down with haggis, tatties and a single malt or a pint of heavy (Bellhaven). I'd propose you wash your humble pie down with a pint of scrumpy - can't get more English than that.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited August 2014
    MaxPB said:

    Traditionally people have said the issue here is that Germany needs different interest rates to the rest of the EU, but the German economy doesn't exactly seem at risk of hyper-inflation either. So isn't the obvious solution just for the ECB to print shedloads of money?

    I'm not saying I know how to get them do that, but if you don't have a way to get them to do that you probably also don't have the ability to restructure the Eurozone.

    That is of course the solution, but the ECB is not going to do it. German monetary doctrine rules in the EMU and the German constitutional court has already ruled against EMU debt monetisation by the ECB and against Eurobonds.

    Quantitative easing in Europe is off the table, so other solutions need to be looked at. The solution that is the least painful is a German EMU exit which would allow for the Euro to weaken and the DM to strengthen balancing out German over-austerity between 1995-2005 on wages and spending.

    Of course then the German economic miracle would be derailed, but it would unleash market forces on an economy that has had it very easy for the last few years with an undervalued currency.
    No amounts of QE is going to create meaningfull economic growth, just because you are giving tons of money to people who have already tons of money wont make them spend those tons of money or make them invest it in productive operations.
    (Oh how would I like to publise my essay on QE, however I haven't found a publisher.)

    Eurobonds are a big NO because individual national bonds favour Germany and without the german ok you cant have them.

    A german EMU exit is also impossible as long as the current account surplus created by EMU membership exceeds the cost of eurozone bailouts.
  • Options

    On topic, I wonder what the SNP would be polling without Salmond as leader?

    Holyrood magazine ‏@HolyroodDaily 16 mins
    Salmond says Survation poll found that the SNP got 43% support from women. Labour got 27%. #fmqs

    Just goes to show how many SNP voters don't support partition.

  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,157
    MaxPB said:

    Traditionally people have said the issue here is that Germany needs different interest rates to the rest of the EU, but the German economy doesn't exactly seem at risk of hyper-inflation either. So isn't the obvious solution just for the ECB to print shedloads of money?

    I'm not saying I know how to get them do that, but if you don't have a way to get them to do that you probably also don't have the ability to restructure the Eurozone.

    That is of course the solution, but the ECB is not going to do it. German monetary doctrine rules in the EMU and the German constitutional court has already ruled against EMU debt monetisation by the ECB and against Eurobonds.

    Quantitative easing in Europe is off the table, so other solutions need to be looked at. The solution that is the least painful is a German EMU exit which would allow for the Euro to weaken and the DM to strengthen balancing out German over-austerity between 1995-2005 on wages and spending.

    Of course then the German economic miracle would be derailed, but it would unleash market forces on an economy that has had it very easy for the last few years with an undervalued currency.
    There's no mechanism to force the ECB to print money (actually there is, but it's slow) but my point is that there's no mechanism to kick Germany out of the Eurozone either. If we're going to imagine we have the ability to do the second, we may as well imagine up the ability to do the first...
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Nearly 40% of the electorate voted for Nick Clegg last time in Hallam. That's pretty impressive in this day and age of low turnouts and split votes. The ICM weighted sample in May had him on 15%. So nearly 2/3 of those who voted for him last time are now not prepared to say they will next time. That should be enough to get the alarm bells ringing.

    There doesn't appear to be any tactical voting benefit either. He appears to have lost more support to the Tories than he has gained. Tories just will not vote tactically. That will do for Wee Danny in Inverness, Clegg I'm not so sure about.

    2/3rds is also the same number of people who voted nationally LD in 2010 but won't this time.
    (Plus its not just ICM, Lord Ashcroft also did a poll in Sheffield Hallam way back in late 2010 and also found bad numbers for Clegg but don't tell TSE).
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    MaxPB said:

    Traditionally people have said the issue here is that Germany needs different interest rates to the rest of the EU, but the German economy doesn't exactly seem at risk of hyper-inflation either. So isn't the obvious solution just for the ECB to print shedloads of money?

    I'm not saying I know how to get them do that, but if you don't have a way to get them to do that you probably also don't have the ability to restructure the Eurozone.

    That is of course the solution, but the ECB is not going to do it. German monetary doctrine rules in the EMU and the German constitutional court has already ruled against EMU debt monetisation by the ECB and against Eurobonds.

    Quantitative easing in Europe is off the table, so other solutions need to be looked at. The solution that is the least painful is a German EMU exit which would allow for the Euro to weaken and the DM to strengthen balancing out German over-austerity between 1995-2005 on wages and spending.

    Of course then the German economic miracle would be derailed, but it would unleash market forces on an economy that has had it very easy for the last few years with an undervalued currency.
    There's no mechanism to force the ECB to print money (actually there is, but it's slow) but my point is that there's no mechanism to kick Germany out of the Eurozone either. If we're going to imagine we have the ability to do the second, we may as well imagine up the ability to do the first...
    There is a window in the Lisbon Treaty but the council of ministers would have to agree so its impossible without Germany itself wanting to leave.
  • Options
    Speedy said:

    Nearly 40% of the electorate voted for Nick Clegg last time in Hallam. That's pretty impressive in this day and age of low turnouts and split votes. The ICM weighted sample in May had him on 15%. So nearly 2/3 of those who voted for him last time are now not prepared to say they will next time. That should be enough to get the alarm bells ringing.

    There doesn't appear to be any tactical voting benefit either. He appears to have lost more support to the Tories than he has gained. Tories just will not vote tactically. That will do for Wee Danny in Inverness, Clegg I'm not so sure about.

    2/3rds is also the same number of people who voted nationally LD in 2010 but won't this time.
    (Plus its not just ICM, Lord Ashcroft also did a poll in Sheffield Hallam way back in late 2010 and also found bad numbers for Clegg but don't tell TSE).
    So you'll offer me something like 7/1 on Clegg holding Hallam then?
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,395
    edited August 2014

    On topic, I wonder what the SNP would be polling without Salmond as leader?

    Holyrood magazine ‏@HolyroodDaily 16 mins
    Salmond says Survation poll found that the SNP got 43% support from women. Labour got 27%. #fmqs

    Just goes to show how many SNP voters don't support partition.

    Trans: Yeahbutnobutyeahbutnobutyeahbutno
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,856

    Off-topic:

    Am I alone in thinking that Pope Francis is turning out to be a rather good pope (as far as popes can go), at least according to his words?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-28768880
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28189906
    http://time.com/2961974/pope-francis-sex-abuse-catholic/
    http://www.nbcnews.com/news/other/pope-who-am-i-judge-gay-people-f6C10780741

    (Note: I am not Catholic)

    As another non-Catholic I've been quietly impressed by him too - and the more he does to upset the Curia, from checking out of his own hotel on election onwards, the better too. He seems to get "times have changed" - early days, but he could be a truly great Pope.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,667

    MaxPB said:

    Traditionally people have said the issue here is that Germany needs different interest rates to the rest of the EU, but the German economy doesn't exactly seem at risk of hyper-inflation either. So isn't the obvious solution just for the ECB to print shedloads of money?

    I'm not saying I know how to get them do that, but if you don't have a way to get them to do that you probably also don't have the ability to restructure the Eurozone.

    That is of course the solution, but the ECB is not going to do it. German monetary doctrine rules in the EMU and the German constitutional court has already ruled against EMU debt monetisation by the ECB and against Eurobonds.

    Quantitative easing in Europe is off the table, so other solutions need to be looked at. The solution that is the least painful is a German EMU exit which would allow for the Euro to weaken and the DM to strengthen balancing out German over-austerity between 1995-2005 on wages and spending.

    Of course then the German economic miracle would be derailed, but it would unleash market forces on an economy that has had it very easy for the last few years with an undervalued currency.
    There's no mechanism to force the ECB to print money (actually there is, but it's slow) but my point is that there's no mechanism to kick Germany out of the Eurozone either. If we're going to imagine we have the ability to do the second, we may as well imagine up the ability to do the first...
    In the imaginary solutions stakes a German EMU exit is better as it is long term, money printing really only buys time for reform. It doesn't solve competitiveness issues in and of itself, Japan has been printing money for longer than anyone but the Japanese economy is still deeply uncompetitive. Even over here our QE program bought time and inflated away some of the debt so that economic and market reforms could take place, it still isn't fast enough. Now think about how hard it would be in France where even the slightest reform causes endless strikes and riots...

    No, Germany leaving the EMU is the preferable solution in the realm of the impossible.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Speedy said:

    Nearly 40% of the electorate voted for Nick Clegg last time in Hallam. That's pretty impressive in this day and age of low turnouts and split votes. The ICM weighted sample in May had him on 15%. So nearly 2/3 of those who voted for him last time are now not prepared to say they will next time. That should be enough to get the alarm bells ringing.

    There doesn't appear to be any tactical voting benefit either. He appears to have lost more support to the Tories than he has gained. Tories just will not vote tactically. That will do for Wee Danny in Inverness, Clegg I'm not so sure about.

    2/3rds is also the same number of people who voted nationally LD in 2010 but won't this time.
    (Plus its not just ICM, Lord Ashcroft also did a poll in Sheffield Hallam way back in late 2010 and also found bad numbers for Clegg but don't tell TSE).
    So you'll offer me something like 7/1 on Clegg holding Hallam then?
    I wont bet on it before Ashcroft does another poll in Sheffield Hallam, the 2010 one is too old.
  • Options
    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Nearly 40% of the electorate voted for Nick Clegg last time in Hallam. That's pretty impressive in this day and age of low turnouts and split votes. The ICM weighted sample in May had him on 15%. So nearly 2/3 of those who voted for him last time are now not prepared to say they will next time. That should be enough to get the alarm bells ringing.

    There doesn't appear to be any tactical voting benefit either. He appears to have lost more support to the Tories than he has gained. Tories just will not vote tactically. That will do for Wee Danny in Inverness, Clegg I'm not so sure about.

    2/3rds is also the same number of people who voted nationally LD in 2010 but won't this time.
    (Plus its not just ICM, Lord Ashcroft also did a poll in Sheffield Hallam way back in late 2010 and also found bad numbers for Clegg but don't tell TSE).
    So you'll offer me something like 7/1 on Clegg holding Hallam then?
    I wont bet on it before Ashcroft does another poll in Sheffield Hallam, the 2010 one is too old.
    Another ramper who won't bet on Clegg losing Hallam.

    Noted
  • Options
    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Nearly 40% of the electorate voted for Nick Clegg last time in Hallam. That's pretty impressive in this day and age of low turnouts and split votes. The ICM weighted sample in May had him on 15%. So nearly 2/3 of those who voted for him last time are now not prepared to say they will next time. That should be enough to get the alarm bells ringing.

    There doesn't appear to be any tactical voting benefit either. He appears to have lost more support to the Tories than he has gained. Tories just will not vote tactically. That will do for Wee Danny in Inverness, Clegg I'm not so sure about.

    2/3rds is also the same number of people who voted nationally LD in 2010 but won't this time.
    (Plus its not just ICM, Lord Ashcroft also did a poll in Sheffield Hallam way back in late 2010 and also found bad numbers for Clegg but don't tell TSE).
    So you'll offer me something like 7/1 on Clegg holding Hallam then?
    I wont bet on it before Ashcroft does another poll in Sheffield Hallam, the 2010 one is too old.
    There's a fortune to be made if you really think Clegg will lose.

  • Options

    On topic, I wonder what the SNP would be polling without Salmond as leader?

    Holyrood magazine ‏@HolyroodDaily 16 mins
    Salmond says Survation poll found that the SNP got 43% support from women. Labour got 27%. #fmqs

    Just goes to show how many SNP voters don't support partition.

    Trans: Yeahbutnobutyeahbutnobutyeahbutno
    Trans: No 66% , Yes 33%.

  • Options
    None of the potential real world solutions to the Euro are politically do-able. Or at least not politically do-able pre-emptively (as opposed to when forced to by collapse/rioting/SHTF).

    William Hague once said the Euro nations had 'locked themselves in a building, set it on fire and thrown away the key'. Yup.
  • Options
    Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 807

    I'm shocked by this polling, shocked I tell you

    Wish you were here? Yes, just not with Ed: poll reveals Miliband is party leader public would least like to share a holiday with

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/wish-you-were-here-yes-just-not-with-ed-poll-reveals-miliband-is-party-leader-public-would-least-like-to-share-a-holiday-with-9668410.html

    That's because Cameron would leave you alone in the pub.
    Cruel but one of the best pb jokes for a long time.
    tim would have been so much crueller...
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,949

    Sorry to ruin the mood but

    The result of 2014's independence referendum is unlikely to be declared in the early hours of the morning, according to a report.

    While ballots in the historic vote will be counted overnight, a paper from Chief Counting Officer (designate) Mary Pitcaithly said this does not necessarily mean the result will be announced overnight.

    "Getting the result right is more important than getting it quickly," it says.

    http://news.stv.tv/politics/247065-independence-referendum-result-unlikely-to-be-declared-overnight/

    :(

  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited August 2014
    Neil said:

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Nearly 40% of the electorate voted for Nick Clegg last time in Hallam. That's pretty impressive in this day and age of low turnouts and split votes. The ICM weighted sample in May had him on 15%. So nearly 2/3 of those who voted for him last time are now not prepared to say they will next time. That should be enough to get the alarm bells ringing.

    There doesn't appear to be any tactical voting benefit either. He appears to have lost more support to the Tories than he has gained. Tories just will not vote tactically. That will do for Wee Danny in Inverness, Clegg I'm not so sure about.

    2/3rds is also the same number of people who voted nationally LD in 2010 but won't this time.
    (Plus its not just ICM, Lord Ashcroft also did a poll in Sheffield Hallam way back in late 2010 and also found bad numbers for Clegg but don't tell TSE).
    So you'll offer me something like 7/1 on Clegg holding Hallam then?
    I wont bet on it before Ashcroft does another poll in Sheffield Hallam, the 2010 one is too old.
    There's a fortune to be made if you really think Clegg will lose.

    I'm too conservative with bets, example: in the world cup I only betted on matches I was 90% certain on the outcome and no more than 3 bets at a time with hedges (Germany vs Ghana was the one nasty exception), I lost a little I gained a little but it was the satisfaction of ending up with more gains than loses and being able to crow about it.
    I bet mostly for the status of proving that my predictions are correct.

    2 polls show Clegg will lose, one of them is almost 4 years old and another one questioned because of the guy who ordered it.
    I would like a 3rd one before committing myself, Clegg is in trouble but I can't honestly say in how much trouble.
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    edited August 2014
    Tin foil hat wearers will be cashing in bets, after watching BBC News at One.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,218

    malcolmg said:

    Neil said:

    malcolmg said:


    Lots of pictures of packed meetings organised by YES but dearth of NO meetings and when you see stalls NO is always abandoned. So on the face of it if they are there they are very very very shy.

    Or they have better things to do with their time?
    Many will have but you would expect it to be more even at least. It does all seem very strange as polls and media all have NO as miles ahead but in Scotland on the ground it does not appear that way. Relatives of mine who are NO / DK will be very unlikely to bother to vote, whereas the ones for YES are certain to vote.
    Worst case it will be an awful lot closer than BT and media would have you believe, it does not feel like NO are ahead. May be wishful thinking I suppose.
    It's almost over now. We'll see a continued move towards the status quo over the closing weeks and Antifrank's 66:33 :: No:Yes shall come to pass.
    not a chance in hell of it being that.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited August 2014
    dr_spyn said:

    Tin foil hat wearers will be cashing in bets, after watching BBC News at One.

    Is it the one we are not allowed to talk about it?
    (I didn't expect my 1000th post to be about that man).
  • Options
    FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    On a GDP per capita basis Japan has been one of the best performing economies of recent years. Far higher living standards.

    Also previously they only increased money supply by the proportion of GDP growth giving Friedmanite stable prices.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,218
    Patrick said:

    malcolmg said:

    Patrick said:

    malcolmg said:

    Patrick said:

    malcolmg said:

    TGOHF said:

    malcolmg said:

    TGOHF said:

    Patrick said:

    One thing is for damned sure - PB on the morning after the Sindy result is going to be fun!

    Some humble pie will need to be eaten by the bucketload. I'm very much of the opinion that it will be PlanktonG doing the piemunching. But it just might be all of us 'believe the polls' mob. Either way it'll be a hoot.

    When is the count ? Overnight ?
    Think result will be known early hours.

    Good - I hate those 9am next day start counts - or even worse wait until Sunday.
    I fly out Friday morning on holiday ( assuming I still have a valid passport ) so be glad also.
    You shirking your impending piemunching duties Malc? I do hope you can pen at least one little 'I was utterly wrong and apologise unreservedly for all the abuse' post from the departure lounge.
    Patrick , I will try to get a gloat in before leaving. As I only use old phone , refuse to have e-mail access etc I will not be able to do from airport. Holiday will be e-mail and spreadsheet free as well.
    Sounds good Malc! I'll lead the turnip mea culpa drive if it's a YES.
    LOL, lots of mashed neeps for sure.
    I'll feel honour-bound to wash it down with haggis, tatties and a single malt or a pint of heavy (Bellhaven). I'd propose you wash your humble pie down with a pint of scrumpy - can't get more English than that.
    Patrick , will have several pints regardless of result.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,034
    Oh my.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    FalseFlag said:

    On a GDP per capita basis Japan has been one of the best performing economies of recent years. Far higher living standards.

    Also previously they only increased money supply by the proportion of GDP growth giving Friedmanite stable prices.

    In 1990 they were the richest in the world on a GDP per capita basis, today they are lower than Britain somewhere in the mid 20s in the world.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,034
    isam said:

    Moderators, no need to edit this post ^_~

    It's not connected apparently.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,034
    SeanT said:

    FalseFlag said:

    On a GDP per capita basis Japan has been one of the best performing economies of recent years. Far higher living standards.

    Also previously they only increased money supply by the proportion of GDP growth giving Friedmanite stable prices.

    Nah. That's only because the Yen has been so strong.

    On a PPP basis Japan's GDP per capita is arguably lower than the UK's.

    http://tinyurl.com/d5n87
    Still huge numbers of young(ish) Japanese in Thailand ?
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Pulpstar said:

    Oh my.

    Exlusive on all front pages tommorow I expect.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Lets be proactive.
    OK moderators what can we post and what can't we post in relation with certain developments regarding a famous singer that shocked the nation today?
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Pulpstar said:

    Oh my.

    I'm not surprised.
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    edited August 2014
    TGOHF said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Oh my.

    I'm not surprised.
    ooops sorry TSE..deleted. :)
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,714
    edited August 2014
    Speedy said:

    Lets be proactive.
    OK moderators what can we post and what can't we post in relation with certain developments regarding a famous singer that shocked the nation today?

    As the mods aren't about at the moment.

    1) No presumptions about anyone's guilt or innocence

    2) Any comments on this topic need to come with a link from a reputable UK news organisation.

    3) Anyone posting stuff likely to get Mike into trouble is liable to be smote by the Ban-Hammer

  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,034
    Speedy said:

    Lets be proactive.
    OK moderators what can we post and what can't we post in relation with certain developments regarding a famous singer that shocked the nation today?

    Backslang.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,090

    Speedy said:

    Lets be proactive.
    OK moderators what can we post and what can't we post in relation with certain developments regarding a famous singer that shocked the nation today?

    As the mods aren't about at the moment.

    1) No presumptions about anyone's guilt or innocence

    2) Any comments on this topic need to come with a link from a reputable UK news organisations

    3) Anyone posting stuff likely to get Mike into trouble is liable to be smote by the Ban-Hammer

    I only said there had been developments?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,034
    @isam You tree gets automodded I suspect.
  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited August 2014
    It seems to me that when it becomes widely known that famous person A's home is investigated in connection with crime B, then famous person A lives with the stain of that, whether blameless or not.
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    Is Twitter how trial by Harman's Court of Public Opinion would work?

    Must be some Tin Foil Hat Wearers on some interesting accumulators.
  • Options
    isam said:

    Speedy said:

    Lets be proactive.
    OK moderators what can we post and what can't we post in relation with certain developments regarding a famous singer that shocked the nation today?

    As the mods aren't about at the moment.

    1) No presumptions about anyone's guilt or innocence

    2) Any comments on this topic need to come with a link from a reputable UK news organisations

    3) Anyone posting stuff likely to get Mike into trouble is liable to be smote by the Ban-Hammer

    I only said there had been developments?
    No out made a joke that could be misinterpreted as a smear and presumption of guilt.

  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,942
    edited August 2014
    OT. Bearing in mind what is happening in Libya Gaza Syria Iraq etc does anyone wonder whether Tony Blair's appointment as "Middle East Peace Envoy' might have been a mistake?
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,090

    isam said:

    Speedy said:

    Lets be proactive.
    OK moderators what can we post and what can't we post in relation with certain developments regarding a famous singer that shocked the nation today?

    As the mods aren't about at the moment.

    1) No presumptions about anyone's guilt or innocence

    2) Any comments on this topic need to come with a link from a reputable UK news organisations

    3) Anyone posting stuff likely to get Mike into trouble is liable to be smote by the Ban-Hammer

    I only said there had been developments?
    No out made a joke that could be misinterpreted as a smear and presumption of guilt.

    Pah youre just jealous of my funnies!
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,221



    Assad's actual Syrian army is using home-made barrel bombs filled with chlorine? It seems unlikely.

    But to get back to the vote, what would have happened if Cameron had supported the Labour motion requiring evidence of chemical weapons use? Then Cameron's motion passes and ... nothing happens because the Americans and Europeans are against it.

    "Assad's actual Syrian army is using home-made barrel bombs filled with chlorine? It seems unlikely."

    Why does it seem unlikely? It would serve certain purposes. And they would not be 'home-made'. But if you think HRW are lying, well, feel free.

    Labour's amendment was a do-nothing amendment. It was pointless, and was only there to allow Miliband to wriggle out of his obligations. And it was not just a one-off: such weapons are suspected to have been used nine times between February and April.

    It is worth repeating what a witness claimed in the HRW report:

    I was in my office one kilometer from the site of the attack. I heard the helicopter overhead so I went outside [and] I saw the barrel bomb fall. I know it is a barrel bomb because it was falling slowly. Then I saw the explosion. The barrel bomb fell on the western part of the neighborhood in a residential area. The FSA [Free Syria Army] were at least 500 meters away [and] not located in the residential neighborhoods. I saw two barrel bombs dropped from the same helicopter, but not at the same time. The second barrel bomb fell few minutes after the first one.

    When I went to the place where the barrel bombs fell I saw that one of them did not explode. There was a very strong smell, but I did not know what it was. I started coughing for a few minutes and I left because I felt there was something wrong with the smell. I saw at least 50 people injured. They were on the ground suffocating and some were coughing uncontrollably.

    The barrel bomb that exploded destroyed three houses. I saw one man injured in his head from shrapnel, but that was it. There were children and women among the people injured. In the field hospital I saw that the man injured with shrapnel in the head died. His name was Mostafa Ahmad al-Mohamad. A 7-year-old girl also died from the destruction or from shrapnel, I’m not sure. Some of the injured were taken to Turkey. They were suffering from severe suffocation and redness in the eyes.
    Miliband has blood on his hands.
  • Options
    volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078

    Speedy said:

    Lets be proactive.
    OK moderators what can we post and what can't we post in relation with certain developments regarding a famous singer that shocked the nation today?

    As the mods aren't about at the moment.

    1) No presumptions about anyone's guilt or innocence

    2) Any comments on this topic need to come with a link from a reputable UK news organisation.

    3) Anyone posting stuff likely to get Mike into trouble is liable to be smote by the Ban-Hammer

    May I request clarity with regard to the definition of "reputable UK news organisation"?
    Also,does this ruling preclude any outside the UK?
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    Blair as Middle East Peace Envoy about as successful as child care organised by King Herod.
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Roger said:

    OT. Bearing in mind what is happening in Libya Gaza Syria Iraq etc does anyone wonder whether Tony Blair's appointment as "Middle East Peace Envoy' might have been a mistake?

    Peacekeepers in Ukraine might be the next problem. Have the 500-odd people driving the Russian humanitarian aid lorries made arrangements to return home?
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Roger said:

    OT. Bearing in mind what is happening in Libya Gaza Syria Iraq etc does anyone wonder whether Tony Blair's appointment as "Middle East Peace Envoy' might have been a mistake?

    Not sure his appointment was a mistake - but results don't appear to be good so far.

  • Options

    Speedy said:

    Lets be proactive.
    OK moderators what can we post and what can't we post in relation with certain developments regarding a famous singer that shocked the nation today?

    As the mods aren't about at the moment.

    1) No presumptions about anyone's guilt or innocence

    2) Any comments on this topic need to come with a link from a reputable UK news organisation.

    3) Anyone posting stuff likely to get Mike into trouble is liable to be smote by the Ban-Hammer

    May I request clarity with regard to the definition of "reputable UK news organisation"?
    Also,does this ruling preclude any outside the UK?
    UK Newspapers, UK news channel websites, UK based news sites such as Reuters, press association etc, tweets who work for the above. but not order-order.com

    Re outside the UK, CNN, Washington post etc etc should be fine.

    The more reputable the better.


  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    "Assad's actual Syrian army is using home-made barrel bombs filled with chlorine? It seems unlikely."

    Why does it seem unlikely? It would serve certain purposes. And they would not be 'home-made'. But if you think HRW are lying, well, feel free.

    Labour's amendment was a do-nothing amendment. It was pointless, and was only there to allow Miliband to wriggle out of his obligations. And it was not just a one-off: such weapons are suspected to have been used nine times between February and April.

    It is worth repeating what a witness claimed in the HRW report:


    I was in my office one kilometer from the site of the attack. I heard the helicopter overhead so I went outside [and] I saw the barrel bomb fall. I know it is a barrel bomb because it was falling slowly. Then I saw the explosion. The barrel bomb fell on the western part of the neighborhood in a residential area. The FSA [Free Syria Army] were at least 500 meters away [and] not located in the residential neighborhoods. I saw two barrel bombs dropped from the same helicopter, but not at the same time. The second barrel bomb fell few minutes after the first one.

    When I went to the place where the barrel bombs fell I saw that one of them did not explode. There was a very strong smell, but I did not know what it was. I started coughing for a few minutes and I left because I felt there was something wrong with the smell. I saw at least 50 people injured. They were on the ground suffocating and some were coughing uncontrollably.

    The barrel bomb that exploded destroyed three houses. I saw one man injured in his head from shrapnel, but that was it. There were children and women among the people injured. In the field hospital I saw that the man injured with shrapnel in the head died. His name was Mostafa Ahmad al-Mohamad. A 7-year-old girl also died from the destruction or from shrapnel, I’m not sure. Some of the injured were taken to Turkey. They were suffering from severe suffocation and redness in the eyes.
    Miliband has blood on his hands.

    The HRW report you linked to talked about improvised bombs filled with commercial chlorine. I think home-made covers it.

    If there is evidence of chemical weapon use by Assad -- and the earlier evidence is far stronger -- then what precisely is the objection to a motion requiring said evidence? Why do you not condemn Conservative MPs who voted against the government measure? And most importantly, what do you think Cameron would have done if his motion had passed?

    Surely Cameron would have done nothing because neither the EU nor the USA supported action. And that -- not Syria -- is my main point. Cameron is repeatedly grandstanding based on what he expects other countries to do -- attack ISIL, block Juncker or bomb Assad.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,030
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Did someone say tin foil?
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-0TEJMJOhk
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,135
    While surfing for an out of UK News report I came across this from Huffington Post. "An American Doctor Experiences an NHS Emergency Room!.
    And she was delighted with the care and expertise her child was given. Up there with the best of USA, and nothing (although she offered) to pay.
  • Options
    MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    Roger said:

    OT. Bearing in mind what is happening in Libya Gaza Syria Iraq etc does anyone wonder whether Tony Blair's appointment as "Middle East Peace Envoy' might have been a mistake?

    He could be dropped on Raqqa to negotiate with Isis.
  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Cameron is repeatedly grandstanding based on what he expects other countries to do -- attack ISIL, block Juncker or bomb Assad.

    That is a perceptive point.
  • Options
    MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Traditionally people have said the issue here is that Germany needs different interest rates to the rest of the EU, but the German economy doesn't exactly seem at risk of hyper-inflation either. So isn't the obvious solution just for the ECB to print shedloads of money?

    I'm not saying I know how to get them do that, but if you don't have a way to get them to do that you probably also don't have the ability to restructure the Eurozone.

    That is of course the solution, but the ECB is not going to do it. German monetary doctrine rules in the EMU and the German constitutional court has already ruled against EMU debt monetisation by the ECB and against Eurobonds.

    Quantitative easing in Europe is off the table, so other solutions need to be looked at. The solution that is the least painful is a German EMU exit which would allow for the Euro to weaken and the DM to strengthen balancing out German over-austerity between 1995-2005 on wages and spending.

    Of course then the German economic miracle would be derailed, but it would unleash market forces on an economy that has had it very easy for the last few years with an undervalued currency.
    There's no mechanism to force the ECB to print money (actually there is, but it's slow) but my point is that there's no mechanism to kick Germany out of the Eurozone either. If we're going to imagine we have the ability to do the second, we may as well imagine up the ability to do the first...
    In the imaginary solutions stakes a German EMU exit is better as it is long term, money printing really only buys time for reform. It doesn't solve competitiveness issues in and of itself, Japan has been printing money for longer than anyone but the Japanese economy is still deeply uncompetitive. Even over here our QE program bought time and inflated away some of the debt so that economic and market reforms could take place, it still isn't fast enough. Now think about how hard it would be in France where even the slightest reform causes endless strikes and riots...

    No, Germany leaving the EMU is the preferable solution in the realm of the impossible.
    Germany leaving is plausible for WW3 reasons also.

  • Options
    New thread
  • Options

    While surfing for an out of UK News report I came across this from Huffington Post. "An American Doctor Experiences an NHS Emergency Room!.
    And she was delighted with the care and expertise her child was given. Up there with the best of USA, and nothing (although she offered) to pay.

    Do you have the link?
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,221



    The HRW report you linked to talked about improvised bombs filled with commercial chlorine. I think home-made covers it.

    If there is evidence of chemical weapon use by Assad -- and the earlier evidence is far stronger -- then what precisely is the objection to a motion requiring said evidence? Why do you not condemn Conservative MPs who voted against the government measure? And most importantly, what do you think Cameron would have done if his motion had passed?

    Surely Cameron would have done nothing because neither the EU nor the USA supported action. And that -- not Syria -- is my main point. Cameron is repeatedly grandstanding based on what he expects other countries to do -- attack ISIL, block Juncker or bomb Assad.

    In the First Gulf War, the Americans improvised a bunker-buster bomb called the GBU-28, made from old 8-inch artillery barrels. From concept to deployment took three weeks. By your argument, they would also be 'home-made'.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GBU-28

    There was plenty of evidence of the Assad regime's guilt. All Miliband and others would have said is that the evidence was not there yet. It was a get-out clause, and an obvious one.

    I also put some blame on the thirty Conservative MPs who voted against. But they are nowhere near as culpable as Miliband, who led his sheep-like MPs in a sick political charade.

    I also suggest you read up on the timeline of what occurred before you make claims about what occurred.

    Your attempts to blame Cameron for Miliband's grievous mistake are sickening. Miliband made a massive mistake. It's time Labour grew up and admitted it.
  • Options
    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    edited August 2014
    @Roger

    'OT. Bearing in mind what is happening in Libya Gaza Syria Iraq etc does anyone wonder whether Tony Blair's appointment as "Middle East Peace Envoy' might have been a mistake?'

    Can anyone list a single achievement in the years that he's had the role?

    Surprised he hasn't already been dumped.
This discussion has been closed.