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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Unique poll IndyRef poll confined to Scottish women only fi
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Unique poll IndyRef poll confined to Scottish women only finds 20% lead for NO
The front page of Thursday’s Daily Record is dominated by a new Survation poll confined to women only. This is the first time I can recall anything like this being carried out and the figures, after the exclusion of the don’t knows, show a 20% NO lead.
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Looking at the headline figures, by my reckoning, and it's not a strict comparison, but since the last survation, poll, there's been a swing to Yes, amongst women.
Very minor, around 1% to 1.25%.
Within the margin of error, so statistical noise.
I have never dressed as a woman! :-)
Or is it simply - government good, business bad?
Ahahaha, I kid. It's an amusing dilemma for them, and one I hope they get to confront very soon.
Night all.
Must say after day's weeks and months after a YES vote sound potentially very exciting, LOL!
;-)
It's possible Wales would also swing quite heavily to the Tories as well, in this scenario, I think.
With Labour so reliant on Scottish MP's, MP's that will be thrown out of Westminster in 2016, it's hard to see England in particular wanting a Labour government to negotiate with Salmond.
A Conservative landslide in 2015 would be my guess as a result of Scotland leaving the Union. Who would be the leader to benefit from that landslide though, I wonder?
Your theory won't be tested, I doubt a Yes vote would make any difference in VI in England - though Cameron could be forced out (20% chance maybe ?)
Had trouble signing on to comments all week in China (I think because the site uses Twitter in one link) but today it's worked. Odd.
My calculations indicate that Labour would need to gain about 22% more seats than at present to win a majority in rUK, and approximately the same proportionate increase in swing.
Far from impossible, but a significant handicap nevertheless...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Stuart,_1st_Viscount_Stuart_of_Findhorn
conditions for a perfect market
-Perfect market information
-No participant with market power to set prices
-Non intervention by governments
-No barriers to entry or exit
-Equal access to factors of production
-Profit maximization
-No Externalities
the closer any market fits that list the more benefit from it being private and the further away the less benefit
for medicine i see four potential problems on that list with the first maybe the most critical
assuming it came with a country pile and a bucket of cash, of course!
I've been there - still an impressive ruin.
My dad told the story of visiting the elder brother and, looking out from the ramparts, asked where the boundaries of the estate were. Stuart scratched his head and said amiably "I think they're over there somewhere", pointing vaguely at the horizon. A youthful Communist when I heard the story, I felt it was an excellent illustration of the need for a land tax on major property to nudge landowners into doing something useful with their property or sell it to someone who would. Still do, really, though I now think it's quite a nice story.
I hate JFK. BA got me here on time, but JFK's IT system is down, so they have kept us on the plane for 2 hours while they manually process the 800 people ahead of us in the immigration queue...
Grumpf
By comparison, Heathrow has never been busy for me, and has always kicked off my time at home in a good way.
On a related note, just had my first experience buying a ticket only 18 hours in advance, boy was that expensive.
There is a lovely, probably apocryphal story of an Angus farmer visiting friends in Knutsford and asking about Bruce Gardyne's majority, nodding sagely and observing "It'll no be enough for Jock..."
In its latest incarnation it remains a two-horse race SNP/Conservative
Although they did once hold a plane for me at Denver - I got on board, had to walk past about 30 people and sat down. Then the captain said "Now we've finally got the last passenger onboard, we're all set to go". Man, I got some nasty looks
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11030669/Three-reasons-why-wages-are-falling.html
There is another, much more benign reason why wages aren’t going up: many employees have been awarded a secret pay rise in the form an extra pension contribution from their bosses.
Needless to say, most of the beneficiaries are at best only vaguely aware of this but it means that they are actually better off than they realise.
Under the auto-enrolment retirement reforms, which started to kick in 2012 and which will eventually become hugely significant, bosses have to add their workers into a pension scheme, in a move intended to alleviate the demographic time-bomb.
Currency union is a political NoNo - English taxpayers cannot be asked to stand behind a Scottish banking system. All the main parties have unequivocally vetoed it. Eck says it will happen. But it just can't.
A Use Pound Anyway choice, which is apparently Plan B, will destroy Scotland's economy, starting with its banking and financial services industries. A very good article from Andrew Lilico on this:
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/andrewlilico/100027905/scotland-will-use-the-pound-come-what-may-when-did-the-snp-move-to-the-right-of-thatcher/
Eck can apparently do politics but not economics. The meat of the content has now overwhelmed his ability to play the issue with bluster. There is no coherent currency plan. The emperor has no clothes and all the world is laughing.
One of the Lilico commenters has it nicely summarised:
Actually the Scottish vote will simply come down to a simple fact. Do the moderately intelligent outnumber the plankton? When you talk to Scots they fall into the yes and no camp generally along the lines of those who understand Mel Gibson is an Aussie and Braveheart was Hollywood fiction and those who believe it was a historical documentary.
Germany contracts and France is flat, will Osborne repeat his mini recession to join them ?
That was, of course, the original plan but after 2008, it became politically unsaleable. Ever since, there's not really been a good option due to the EU issue. Funnily, the one option that might work - an independent currency with Scotland outside the EU but within the EEA - has been barely discussed. The objective of EU membership is taken as a policy almost axiomatically.
A rash gamble, but perhaps one that he has to take in the absence of a viable plan B.
Chile ?
Shades of the Juncker debacle? The Prime Minister making rash promises based on what he expects other countries to do?
The values are in the houses rather than land, which, due to size and prominence, have high values (even if those values were unrealisable). Once the owning family had sold paintings and land and held country house auctions over a couple of generations, there is no way to pay the tax. Worse, as land is sold, the income from that land reduces, meaning the cycle worsens.
The only options were to try to sell (and there were not that many buyers pre-NT and large hotel chains), remove the roof (thereby making it not a house, but destroying the property), re-purposing (difficult at best) or outright demolition.
This led to a shocking rate of destruction of houses during the twentieth century, many of which are still missed.
Yes, there was undoubtedly some incompetence on the part of the landowners in the face of changing times and labour requirements. But death and other taxes played a much bigger part, as did the lack of reparations for property requisitioned during the war.
For evidence, exhibit a:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Destruction_of_country_houses_in_20th-century_Britain
exhibit b: New Slains Castle, Aberdeen. A property which, if I had more money than God, I would restore into a single home (rather than the current plan for flats). Spectacular ruins and location. The roof was removed to avoid taxes, and a gem was lost.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Slains_Castle
http://www.buildingsatrisk.org.uk/details/903870
The country is much poorer as a result of these idiotic policies.
On the other hand, both America and the UK now have special forces in place without any outcry about "boots on the ground".
Elizabeth Windsor @Queen_UK
A-Level results are in: Cameron - C in media studies; Clegg - failed politics; Miliband - F in spoken English. Awkward. #alevelresults
Elizabeth Windsor @Queen_UK
Alex Salmond goes to an independent school. He gets his results on 18th September. #alevelresults
Where do YOU think Scotland's lender of last resort should reside - Edinburgh, London or Brussels? Because that's where the ultimate power lies. Eck says London!
The tax was levied on "habitable" buildings, it was the same when a window tax was imposed, they bricked up windows, and I believe something similar happened when the number of chimneys were liable for tax.
I daresay they will remain for a while to enjoy a little sightseeing.
One of my friends faced with crippling taxes from the Wilson governments, filled his castle with straw bales, warned the fire service it was not an emergency and then set fire to it. He then sold the stone in the pile of rubble left behind to a major industrial company which used it as filling for the foundations of a factory which itself closed 10 years later.
When AM and his wife moved from the castle into a bungalow in the former grounds, the entire staff who had supported the estate lost their jobs. The stuffing had been knocked out of him and he eventually sold most of the remaining land for road widening and housing.
I am not sure how it was calculated, some of our more well heeled posters will be better able to tell you the method used.
FPT: Mr. Owl, I agree entirely. An English Parliament is necessary, shitty little regional assemblies would be despicable.
On-topic: I concur a male-only poll should have been done alongside this. Also, are women likelier to turn out than men? I have a notion they are.
So you are not in favour of Dave's "localism" then?
I also think he is not as good with money or negotiations as Jabba the Hut!
ICM: 28% - 16%
Populus: 25% - 11%
YouGov: 17% - 9%
Ashcroft: 13% - 11%
I haven't checked to see whether this difference was also in the polling before the last general election, but it suggests that the parties would be well advised to work out what these undecided women are waiting for to make up their minds.
Also, do we have to add a certain charm with the ladies to the list of Ashcroft's abilities to explain why it is that he manages to receive a more decisive response?
I feel fairly strongly about this: as someone who likes (in an amateur way) architecture, what happened between 1900 and 1970 was an absolute travesty. True, some of those destroyed were architecturally unimportant, but most were at least of local importance.
These taxes cannot even have raised that much money in the grand scheme of things.
Read the following and weep:
http://lh.matthewbeckett.com/lh_complete_list.html
Mr. L, Merkel backtracked on Juncker. Hardly Cameron's fault.
It would have been great headlines if the "Chinooks" had been used to evacuate the refugees, with the help of the SAS. All politicians will jump at a chance like that.
The usual job of special forces tends to be less newsworthy, but invaluable despite it's secrecy.
This could be a bit of a outlier.
The 2010 LD split today is: LAB:28; LDs:39!
This is contrary to the pattern for this month (and most of June & July) where the previous polls have shown the split nearly always in favour of LAB. In fact it is the highest LD retention since mid-May.
The argument is that different regions need different priorities, a devolution of powers under the oversight of a central parliament has always made sense.
Unfortunately, every time it gets tried, we end up with another level of government, and London claws back the powers.
It needs a radical rethink, and our governments do "radical" in name only.
I'm very surprised by that, if it's the case. Surely fewer people being there makes a rescue easier?
Scotland isn't one uniform blob. It's got Lowlands, Highlands, Islands, many rural areas, large cities and so on and so forth. Somehow the Scots have managed to make a single Parliament work.
If it's good enough for the Scots, it's good enough for the English.
There were fewer people on the mountain mainly because they were making their own way out under the cover of darkness.
A big country, and not that many insurgents to form stable lines made it comparatively easy.