@not_on_fire The real vandals in the case of one of our local houses were the property developers who had a mix up with a newly created demolition firm. This resulted in a listed building being demolished without consent, and the immediate liquidation of said demolition firm.
Salmond really hasn't thought through the currency problem. AT ALL.
Salmond has thought through the currency problem in great detail, which is why he was trying to wing it on a wing and a prayer: that was still the best of four bad options (Sterling union, sterlingization, Euro, independent currency). Due to the EU issue, an independent currency and adopting the Euro would probably amount to the same thing in a decade's time.
That was, of course, the original plan but after 2008, it became politically unsaleable. Ever since, there's not really been a good option due to the EU issue. Funnily, the one option that might work - an independent currency with Scotland outside the EU but within the EEA - has been barely discussed. The objective of EU membership is taken as a policy almost axiomatically.
The only potentially viable solution is a new fully independent currency.
Ha Ha Ha , this site is full of experts, it is risible the pish that is posted on here by dummies who must struggle to tie their shoelaces given the guff they come out with.
Malcolm G is always right about everything. When is the SNP government of Scotland going to realise this, and hand over absolute power to him?
Is this a betting opportunity? Am I off my trolley (again)?
I can't see how the Tories would ever be able to pass legislation to allow the UK to leave the ECHR. Even if the Tories had a small majority, there would be many Tory MP's against this, who would vote against. As the 2010 new intake of Tory MP's have proved, they can be fairly independent on some issues and I suspect human rights will be one such issue. I also think that the UK public will be against such a move.
@hucks67 Mostly it is posing for the gallery, Invent an enemy, blame all that is bad on them, and you can watch your approval ratings soar. One might assume that people would be smart enough to see through it, but you would be wrong.
On topic, this is the inevitable result of the aggressive attitude of too many in the Yes campaign. Many women don't like that sort of thing. (many men don't either but the tendency's even stronger with women). The abuse and vitriol poured on anyone who has a different view is off-putting to those with an open mind who prefer more reasoned argument, or at least engagement rather than diatribe.
Spot on David.
The sheer nastiness of the YES lobby, particularly online, is a wonder to behold and does their cause no good at all. Their view that everything, from the betting to the polls, is a massive conspiracy does nothing to make their cause attractive.
@Morris_Dancer The argument is that different regions need different priorities, a devolution of powers under the oversight of a central parliament has always made sense. Unfortunately, every time it gets tried, we end up with another level of government, and London claws back the powers. It needs a radical rethink, and our governments do "radical" in name only.
Surely it is a matter for an English Parliament to decide how much power to delegate locally. Arguing that England should be divided into top-down imposed regions is akin to arguing that as Scotland has approximately twice the population of Wales or should be given devolution as two entities.
On topic, this is the inevitable result of the aggressive attitude of too many in the Yes campaign. Many women don't like that sort of thing. (many men don't either but the tendency's even stronger with women). The abuse and vitriol poured on anyone who has a different view is off-putting to those with an open mind who prefer more reasoned argument, or at least engagement rather than diatribe.
Spot on David.
The sheer nastiness of the YES lobby, particularly online, is a wonder to behold and does their cause no good at all. Their view that everything, from the betting to the polls, is a massive conspiracy does nothing to make their cause attractive.
I'm ignorant in these matters. Why does removing a roof exempt it from taxation (death duty, I assume?)
See Smarmeron's answer below. But I'd go further: because the people who proposed the tax were cultural vandals. They knew what they were doing. It was class warfare writ large.
I feel fairly strongly about this: as someone who likes (in an amateur way) architecture, what happened between 1900 and 1970 was an absolute travesty. True, some of those destroyed were architecturally unimportant, but most were at least of local importance.
These taxes cannot even have raised that much money in the grand scheme of things.
Surely the vandals were those who purposely damaged and/or destroyed houses of significant cultural value simply to avoid paying tax?
I think you underestimate the situation many families found themselves in. Being the eldest son and inheriting the house became a poisoned chalice. The land still had value; the house was a money pit. Often they had little choice, and many of the people who struggled on ended up with ruins anyway: such houses require a vast amount of money on maintenance. They would abandon one wing, then another, and eventually the main building. And in the meantime they lost everything as it as sold off. You cannot blame people, given the official attitudes at the time, for cutting their losses.
(There were also cases where the 'owners' were non-resident; inheritance passed down the chain until it belongs to someone who has absolutely no connection with the property. Faced with a large bill, it seemed the obvious choice).
And the state allowed - and even in many cases actively encouraged - them to do it. Easterross's story below about a house being used for road stone is far from unique.
There is a certain mindset in some that the only way to bring about social change is to destroy the old and replace with the new.
@Morris_Dancer There were fewer people on the mountain mainly because they were making their own way out under the cover of darkness. A big country, and not that many insurgents to form stable lines made it comparatively easy.
Another know all person #Smarmeron, that doesn't know what he's talking about. You try escaping an army with transport, on foot over semi desert and scrub with precious little to eat and drink, in 35º heat and see how far you get. The Americans under Obama are becoming a laughing stock not only in the Middle East, but throughout the world.
China and Russia will be following this closely; very closely.
@not_on_fire The real vandals in the case of one of our local houses were the property developers who had a mix up with a newly created demolition firm. This resulted in a listed building being demolished without consent, and the immediate liquidation of said demolition firm.
Yep, that certainly did happen (although I am not speaking from familial experience). Or houses that mysteriously 'caught' fire for no obvious reason. Often precious artworks went up in smoke, and not trace of them was found in the ashes.
The !afire! method happened one night to Uttoxeter station building in 1987, shortly after a group had been formed to preserve it for community use ...
Cultural vandalism.
I'm not calling for things to remain in aspic: just that the cultural value of something should be acknowledged before any change. Something the listing system does reasonably well at the moment.
The eurozone's two largest economies both performed worse than expected in the second quarter of this year.
German GDP contracted by 0.2% in the three months to the end of June, figures show, after growing by 0.7% in the first quarter.
Germany's Federal Statistics Office said the economy was "losing momentum" after its trade balance had a negative effect on economic development.
And official figures show the French economy saw no growth in the quarter.
France has now seen two quarters of zero growth. The lack of growth was weaker than many economists had expected.
France's statistics agency, INSEE, said that GDP had "remained steady" in the second quarter.
It said that manufacturing output decreased again after a "high number of potential extra days off this quarter due to midweek public holidays."
French finance minister Michel Sapin said that France was unlikely to meet its deficit target for this year.
"The truth is that, as a direct consequence of sluggish growth and insufficient inflation, France will not meet its public deficit target this year despite a complete control of spending," Sapin wrote in newspaper Le Monde.
Mr. L, Merkel backtracked on Juncker. Hardly Cameron's fault.
Indeed but Cameron is making a dangerous habit of making these announcements before he's got all his ducks in a row. Syria was another example, despite what the frothers and astroturfers would have you believe about perfidious Ed.
@MikeK "However, in a statement, the Pentagon said there were now "far fewer Yazidis on Mount Sinjar than previously feared", partly because thousands had evacuated from the mountain each night over the past days. "The Yazidis who remain are in better condition than previously believed and continue to have access to the food and water that we have dropped," the statement said.
On topic, this is the inevitable result of the aggressive attitude of too many in the Yes campaign. Many women don't like that sort of thing. (many men don't either but the tendency's even stronger with women). The abuse and vitriol poured on anyone who has a different view is off-putting to those with an open mind who prefer more reasoned argument, or at least engagement rather than diatribe.
Spot on David.
The sheer nastiness of the YES lobby, particularly online, is a wonder to behold and does their cause no good at all. Their view that everything, from the betting to the polls, is a massive conspiracy does nothing to make their cause attractive.
Uhuh.
I wonder how much these online contributions of the last 24 hours (a small selection) have done to make the No cause attractive? These people's version of civilised discourse is not issuing death threats.
Kruude @ChaIIenger · 8h @GenYes2014 You're a real c**t you know. You may say Scotland Indy is a good thing you don't gain anything all you nationalists are idiots.
jill cruickshank @jillyyyy18 · 11h Salmond wants independence but yet is still relying on the Bank Of England for financial stability. Where is the independence In that? #twat
Mr. L, Merkel backtracked on Juncker. Hardly Cameron's fault.
Indeed but Cameron is making a dangerous habit of making these announcements before he's got all his ducks in a row. Syria was another example, despite what the frothers and astroturfers would have you believe about perfidious Ed.
If the Syrian conflict had ended and everything been sweetness and light, then you would be the first person saying Ed had performed a miracle.
Instead, it's got immeasurably worse and spread to other countries. Yet you still try to claim it as a victory.
With such bad poll numbers for Salmond personally eg 'arrogant' - what are the SNP chances in the General Election. Does this give the conservatives a chance to lance the boil or does this mean labour will sweep the board thanks to nice cuddly Mr Darling (even if he only seems nice and cuddly next to Salmond). If Salmond performs in the same vein in the next debates is he ... er... 'toast'?
@JohnLilburne No, it is a matter for the English people to decide, parliament is subservient to the will of the population, or had you forgotten?
And how would the English people express such wishes? It certainly isn't a matter for the British parliament, just as Scottish local government isn't either.
As a general thought on the Yazidis that are still on the mountain, Would anyone like a bet on the respective ages and sex of it's current occupants? It's by now highly likely that any members of the IS mountaineering will certainly be having an adventure.
For comedy reporting of a poll that shows Women 60:40 against Indy (excluding DK) it would be hard to top "No lead slumps by 3% in new female only Survation poll"......
Ahh, Scot Goes Pop. The greatest satire site there is (apart from Wings Over Scotland, maybe)
And yet it seems to hold a hypnotic attraction for the denizens of PB. A shame none of them have the courage to use their monikers when they make their occasional 'contributions'.
They do not have the balls to be anything other than anonymous , your typical mealy mouthed unionist.
Says "malcolmG" talking to "Theuniondivvie". Neither anonymous, of course
For comedy reporting of a poll that shows Women 60:40 against Indy (excluding DK) it would be hard to top "No lead slumps by 3% in new female only Survation poll"......
Ahh, Scot Goes Pop. The greatest satire site there is (apart from Wings Over Scotland, maybe)
And yet it seems to hold a hypnotic attraction for the denizens of PB. A shame none of them have the courage to use their monikers when they make their occasional 'contributions'.
They do not have the balls to be anything other than anonymous , your typical mealy mouthed unionist.
Says "malcolmG" talking to "Theuniondivvie". Neither anonymous, of course
Surely malcolmg works for the "No" side ? I see no other explanation.
As a general thought on the Yazidis that are still on the mountain, Would anyone like a bet on the respective ages and sex of it's current occupants? It's by now highly likely that any members of the IS mountaineering will certainly be having an adventure.
For comedy reporting of a poll that shows Women 60:40 against Indy (excluding DK) it would be hard to top "No lead slumps by 3% in new female only Survation poll"......
Ahh, Scot Goes Pop. The greatest satire site there is (apart from Wings Over Scotland, maybe)
And yet it seems to hold a hypnotic attraction for the denizens of PB. A shame none of them have the courage to use their monikers when they make their occasional 'contributions'.
They do not have the balls to be anything other than anonymous , your typical mealy mouthed unionist.
Says "malcolmG" talking to "Theuniondivvie". Neither anonymous, of course
Surely malcolmg works for the "No" side ? I see no other explanation.
I suspect "malcolmg" and "works" are not often seen together in the same room
With such bad poll numbers for Salmond personally eg 'arrogant' - what are the SNP chances in the General Election. Does this give the conservatives a chance to lance the boil or does this mean labour will sweep the board thanks to nice cuddly Mr Darling (even if he only seems nice and cuddly next to Salmond). If Salmond performs in the same vein in the next debates is he ... er... 'toast'?
It has come to something when a former Chancellor who managed to lose half a trillion pounds down the sofa between statements to the House is made to look like an economic titan beside the SNP....
Mr. L, Merkel backtracked on Juncker. Hardly Cameron's fault.
Indeed but Cameron is making a dangerous habit of making these announcements before he's got all his ducks in a row. Syria was another example, despite what the frothers and astroturfers would have you believe about perfidious Ed.
If the Syrian conflict had ended and everything been sweetness and light, then you would be the first person saying Ed had performed a miracle.
Instead, it's got immeasurably worse and spread to other countries. Yet you still try to claim it as a victory.
Incredible.
The point of the exercise at the time was supposed to be to stop Assad using chemical weapons. This seems to be holding, and it was done without resorting to bombing Assad and therefore strengthening his enemies. You can argue about who deserves the credit - if Ed Miliband helped, it seemed to be mostly accidental - but if it sticks it will have been a huge success, even more so now we know what damage some of the people the bombing would have helped can do.
It has come to something when a former Chancellor who managed to lose half a trillion pounds down the sofa between statements to the House is made to look like an economic titan beside the SNP....
The difference is that Darling accepts the economic reality he was faced with.
The SNP are determined to avoid that as long as they can
Look at the news footage? The very old and the very young seem to have reached safety, Now if you were a youngish Yazidi male who had just been chased out of your home, and your kinsmen killed? Now look at the mountain in relation to the geography, and tell me that while the old and young were going one way, truckloads of ammunition and weapons were not going the other way?
For comedy reporting of a poll that shows Women 60:40 against Indy (excluding DK) it would be hard to top "No lead slumps by 3% in new female only Survation poll"......
Ahh, Scot Goes Pop. The greatest satire site there is (apart from Wings Over Scotland, maybe)
And yet it seems to hold a hypnotic attraction for the denizens of PB. A shame none of them have the courage to use their monikers when they make their occasional 'contributions'.
They do not have the balls to be anything other than anonymous , your typical mealy mouthed unionist.
Says "malcolmG" talking to "Theuniondivvie". Neither anonymous, of course
You do know the difference between using a single username across the board(s) and posting as 'anonymous' don't you?
Mr. L, Merkel backtracked on Juncker. Hardly Cameron's fault.
Indeed but Cameron is making a dangerous habit of making these announcements before he's got all his ducks in a row. Syria was another example, despite what the frothers and astroturfers would have you believe about perfidious Ed.
If the Syrian conflict had ended and everything been sweetness and light, then you would be the first person saying Ed had performed a miracle.
Instead, it's got immeasurably worse and spread to other countries. Yet you still try to claim it as a victory.
Incredible.
Arming and supporting the Syrian rebels has proven to be a catastrophic decision. Intervention in conflicts tends to prolong them and provoke unforeseen blowback.
Salmond really hasn't thought through the currency problem. AT ALL.
Salmond has thought through the currency problem in great detail, which is why he was trying to wing it on a wing and a prayer: that was still the best of four bad options (Sterling union, sterlingization, Euro, independent currency). Due to the EU issue, an independent currency and adopting the Euro would probably amount to the same thing in a decade's time.
That was, of course, the original plan but after 2008, it became politically unsaleable. Ever since, there's not really been a good option due to the EU issue. Funnily, the one option that might work - an independent currency with Scotland outside the EU but within the EEA - has been barely discussed. The objective of EU membership is taken as a policy almost axiomatically.
The only potentially viable solution is a new fully independent currency.
Ha Ha Ha , this site is full of experts, it is risible the pish that is posted on here by dummies who must struggle to tie their shoelaces given the guff they come out with.
Malcolm G is always right about everything. When is the SNP government of Scotland going to realise this, and hand over absolute power to him?
Is this a betting opportunity? Am I off my trolley (again)?
I think the latter applies, also I am sure I have got an odd thing here or there wrong. Nice of you to think I was perfect mind you.
With such bad poll numbers for Salmond personally eg 'arrogant' - what are the SNP chances in the General Election. Does this give the conservatives a chance to lance the boil or does this mean labour will sweep the board thanks to nice cuddly Mr Darling (even if he only seems nice and cuddly next to Salmond). If Salmond performs in the same vein in the next debates is he ... er... 'toast'?
It has come to something when a former Chancellor who managed to lose half a trillion pounds down the sofa between statements to the House is made to look like an economic titan beside the SNP....
There are some halfwits on here today , headbangers forecasting Tory surges , nutjobs thinking Darling cares about anything other than lining his own pockets, etc etc. Time you went and chapped Kate Bush's door see if she could offer you some tea and commonsense.
For comedy reporting of a poll that shows Women 60:40 against Indy (excluding DK) it would be hard to top "No lead slumps by 3% in new female only Survation poll"......
Ahh, Scot Goes Pop. The greatest satire site there is (apart from Wings Over Scotland, maybe)
And yet it seems to hold a hypnotic attraction for the denizens of PB. A shame none of them have the courage to use their monikers when they make their occasional 'contributions'.
They do not have the balls to be anything other than anonymous , your typical mealy mouthed unionist.
Says "malcolmG" talking to "Theuniondivvie". Neither anonymous, of course
Surely malcolmg works for the "No" side ? I see no other explanation.
I suspect "malcolmg" and "works" are not often seen together in the same room
You are obviously not very bright then , I suspect I earn a lot more than you ever will turnip head.
For comedy reporting of a poll that shows Women 60:40 against Indy (excluding DK) it would be hard to top "No lead slumps by 3% in new female only Survation poll"......
Ahh, Scot Goes Pop. The greatest satire site there is (apart from Wings Over Scotland, maybe)
And yet it seems to hold a hypnotic attraction for the denizens of PB. A shame none of them have the courage to use their monikers when they make their occasional 'contributions'.
They do not have the balls to be anything other than anonymous , your typical mealy mouthed unionist.
Says "malcolmG" talking to "Theuniondivvie". Neither anonymous, of course
Surely malcolmg works for the "No" side ? I see no other explanation.
Flash, we know you are not very bright, luckily for you Scott and Monica persist in posting and keep you off the bottom.
Mr. L, Merkel backtracked on Juncker. Hardly Cameron's fault.
Indeed but Cameron is making a dangerous habit of making these announcements before he's got all his ducks in a row. Syria was another example, despite what the frothers and astroturfers would have you believe about perfidious Ed.
If the Syrian conflict had ended and everything been sweetness and light, then you would be the first person saying Ed had performed a miracle.
Instead, it's got immeasurably worse and spread to other countries. Yet you still try to claim it as a victory.
Incredible.
I agree. The Times this morning reports that US Special Forces are saying the situation on this mountain is not as bad as feared or reported and the numbers involved are fewer. Situations like this show that what we need is satellite support air support drones and special forces. For anything in/near Euorpe or the near/middle east or North Africa we do not need aircraft carriers. What we need are Special Forces. We need to expand recruit and retain and equip our special forces without diluting the quality.
On topic, this is the inevitable result of the aggressive attitude of too many in the Yes campaign. Many women don't like that sort of thing. (many men don't either but the tendency's even stronger with women). The abuse and vitriol poured on anyone who has a different view is off-putting to those with an open mind who prefer more reasoned argument, or at least engagement rather than diatribe.
Spot on David.
The sheer nastiness of the YES lobby, particularly online, is a wonder to behold and does their cause no good at all. Their view that everything, from the betting to the polls, is a massive conspiracy does nothing to make their cause attractive.
Dear Dear, Mike has joined the frothers and gone all loony on us. Jack being pulling your strings.
With such bad poll numbers for Salmond personally eg 'arrogant' - what are the SNP chances in the General Election. Does this give the conservatives a chance to lance the boil or does this mean labour will sweep the board thanks to nice cuddly Mr Darling (even if he only seems nice and cuddly next to Salmond). If Salmond performs in the same vein in the next debates is he ... er... 'toast'?
It has come to something when a former Chancellor who managed to lose half a trillion pounds down the sofa between statements to the House is made to look like an economic titan beside the SNP....
There are some halfwits on here today , headbangers forecasting Tory surges , nutjobs thinking Darling cares about anything other than lining his own pockets, etc etc. Time you went and chapped Kate Bush's door see if she could offer you some tea and commonsense.
On topic, this is the inevitable result of the aggressive attitude of too many in the Yes campaign. Many women don't like that sort of thing. (many men don't either but the tendency's even stronger with women). The abuse and vitriol poured on anyone who has a different view is off-putting to those with an open mind who prefer more reasoned argument, or at least engagement rather than diatribe.
I thought the Referendum was lost once some cybernats thought it a good idea to call J K Rowling "traitor" "whore" and "bitch".
Looking at the Yes supporting stuff on the Internet, including James Kelly's blog and so many others, the level of confidence about winning is sky high. Given that I just cannot believe there isn't something that is being missed in the polls. The alternative is a level of self-deception and denial that would surely be unprecedented in British politics. They are absolutely convinced they are going to win. And that leads me to think they could just do it. If they don't I would expect multiple accusations of vote rigging and the like as they come to terms with what would be a defeat they never expected.
Looking at the Yes supporting stuff on the Internet, including James Kelly's blog and so many others, the level of confidence about winning is sky high. Given that I just cannot believe there isn't something that is being missed in the polls. The alternative is a level of self-deception and denial that would surely be unprecedented in British politics. They are absolutely convinced they are going to win. And that leads me to think they could just do it. If they don't I would expect multiple accusations of vote rigging and the like as they come to terms with what would be a defeat they never expected.
Financier - 'The Eurozone's two largest economies both performed worse than expected in the second quarter of this year.'
Yes the Eurozone crisis refuses to go away and unfortunately is likely to impinge on us - although our own growth rate has been upgraded for next year. All that you quote puts all the moans about 'cost of living crisis' in perspective I think. In other respects the state of the Eurozone might well give Cameron some leverage in any negotiations after 2015. ??
With such bad poll numbers for Salmond personally eg 'arrogant' - what are the SNP chances in the General Election. Does this give the conservatives a chance to lance the boil or does this mean labour will sweep the board thanks to nice cuddly Mr Darling (even if he only seems nice and cuddly next to Salmond). If Salmond performs in the same vein in the next debates is he ... er... 'toast'?
It has come to something when a former Chancellor who managed to lose half a trillion pounds down the sofa between statements to the House is made to look like an economic titan beside the SNP....
There are some halfwits on here today , headbangers forecasting Tory surges , nutjobs thinking Darling cares about anything other than lining his own pockets, etc etc. Time you went and chapped Kate Bush's door see if she could offer you some tea and commonsense.
Looking at the Yes supporting stuff on the Internet, including James Kelly's blog and so many others, the level of confidence about winning is sky high. Given that I just cannot believe there isn't something that is being missed in the polls. The alternative is a level of self-deception and denial that would surely be unprecedented in British politics. They are absolutely convinced they are going to win. And that leads me to think they could just do it. If they don't I would expect multiple accusations of vote rigging and the like as they come to terms with what would be a defeat they never expected.
The alternative is a level of self-deception and denial that would surely be unprecedented in British politics.
The level of self-deception and denial required to believe the SNP manifesto is already unprecedented. It isn't much of a stretch from there to think other people are daft enough to believe it too
The point of the exercise at the time was supposed to be to stop Assad using chemical weapons. This seems to be holding, and it was done without resorting to bombing Assad and therefore strengthening his enemies. You can argue about who deserves the credit - if Ed Miliband helped, it seemed to be mostly accidental - but if it sticks it will have been a huge success, even more so now we know what damage some of the people the bombing would have helped can do.
Do you know the difference between the FSA and the Islamists? Do you care?
As for the chemical weapons: for years, Assad told the world that he had had no chemical weapons. Then he uses them and kills between 200 and 1,700 people, and as a slap on the wrist, the UN destroys all his 'declared' weapons.
You're a fool if you trust him. Yet it suits certain people to do so.
AFAICR, Miliband wanted a parliamentary vote on any intervention. Cameron agreed. Miliband wanted changes to the draft, which Cameron agreed to. Then, on the day of the vote, Miliband reneged on his agreement. Worse, he had no alternative. And Assad continues to commit atrocities to this day - including barrel bombs.
And people are still dying. We have turned our back on the use of chemical weapons for a second time. If we are very lucky this will not come back and bite all our collective backsides ...
On topic, this is the inevitable result of the aggressive attitude of too many in the Yes campaign. Many women don't like that sort of thing. (many men don't either but the tendency's even stronger with women). The abuse and vitriol poured on anyone who has a different view is off-putting to those with an open mind who prefer more reasoned argument, or at least engagement rather than diatribe.
I thought the Referendum was lost once some cybernats thought it a good idea to call J K Rowling "traitor" "whore" and "bitch".
That was MI5 agents doing the abuse to JK Rowling
Christina McKelvie MSP says 'secret service plants' could be behind trolling of Harry Potter author after she spoke out against independence
British spies may have orchestrated the abusive messages sent to JK Rowling after she spoke out against independence, a leading SNP politician has claimed.
Christina McKelvie said the torrent of online attacks aimed at the Harry Potter author could have been the work of "secret service plants".
Women don't like Jabba the Hut. Well I'd never have guessed that.
To be fair on Salmond, he has lost a lot of weight recently, though often looks haggard rather than slim.
I also think he is not as good with money or negotiations as Jabba the Hut!
I know I'm being cruel and unfair, but in the case of both Salmond and Balls I always think it difficult that people could vote for someone who looks like Marin Bormann
Looking at the Yes supporting stuff on the Internet, including James Kelly's blog and so many others, the level of confidence about winning is sky high. Given that I just cannot believe there isn't something that is being missed in the polls. The alternative is a level of self-deception and denial that would surely be unprecedented in British politics. They are absolutely convinced they are going to win. And that leads me to think they could just do it. If they don't I would expect multiple accusations of vote rigging and the like as they come to terms with what would be a defeat they never expected.
I just read scot goes pop and tend to agree with you... They must know something no one else does to be so confident. If there are any big bettors I the yes camp they will fill their boots, but there can't be, or the odds wouldn't be so big
A couple of guys at work today think another Euro crisis is now inevitable, France and Italy have to roll over €500bn worth of debt over the next year and if no growth can be found in either they think that the debt markets will pull support and squirrel money into safe havens. No one believes that the ECB will step up, they have flunked it too many times now.
I also think France are in a recession but the INSEE figures have been massaged to show stagnation. By my count using private indicators from France and a few public figures I get a contraction last quarter of -0.1% and this quarter of -0.3%, over time I expect INSEE to converge on these figures, probably when a quarter of growth is recorded.
Next is the looming spectre of deflation. Spain, Italy, France and Portugal are all in debt deflation traps. Germany is moving towards one. It means even if these countries cut government spending their nominal debt to GDP ratio will continue to rise. Italy actually runs a primary surplus and yet their debt to GDP is rising faster than over here and the UK government will officially record a 5.6% deficit this year. Again it is up to the ECB to weaken the Euro and monetise EMU debt. The snag is that Germany will eat up the lion's share of any gains leaving the rest of the EMU with a few scraps.
Domestically, a crisis that hits in April would be a godsend for the current government, it could even result in a Con majority as it will make the economic indicators count for a lot more. If the people believe that the Tories are better suited to deal with any crisis then they will win. Any earlier or later would not be as effective but could still boost Tory fortunes.
Looking at the Yes supporting stuff on the Internet, including James Kelly's blog and so many others, the level of confidence about winning is sky high. Given that I just cannot believe there isn't something that is being missed in the polls. The alternative is a level of self-deception and denial that would surely be unprecedented in British politics. They are absolutely convinced they are going to win. And that leads me to think they could just do it. If they don't I would expect multiple accusations of vote rigging and the like as they come to terms with what would be a defeat they never expected.
Similar to Labour in '92, perhaps?
Labour did at least have a poll lead at certain times. Yes has never had one, has it? But they are absolutely convinced of victory. There is absolutely no doubt in their minds that the polls are either getting it completely wrong, or that there are a multitude of shy Yes voters or that the polls are being deliberately rigged, or all of the above. Obviously, the rigged point is ridiculous, but the other two are possible given that this is a one-off event with no real precedent for pollsters to work from.
On 19th September they will either being cock-a-hoop with I told you so, or there will be some very dark accusations being bandied around. I don't think that they are going to accept they may just have misread the mood.
@JosiasJessop Miliband's version of it was that, some of the changes they agreed on were not made to the bill when it went to the vote. Not that you will believe it, just saying.
Looking at the Yes supporting stuff on the Internet, including James Kelly's blog and so many others, the level of confidence about winning is sky high. Given that I just cannot believe there isn't something that is being missed in the polls. The alternative is a level of self-deception and denial that would surely be unprecedented in British politics. They are absolutely convinced they are going to win. And that leads me to think they could just do it. If they don't I would expect multiple accusations of vote rigging and the like as they come to terms with what would be a defeat they never expected.
Similar to Labour in '92, perhaps?
Labour did at least have a poll lead at certain times. Yes has never had one, has it? But they are absolutely convinced of victory. There is absolutely no doubt in their minds that the polls are either getting it completely wrong, or that there are a multitude of shy Yes voters or that the polls are being deliberately rigged, or all of the above. Obviously, the rigged point is ridiculous, but the other two are possible given that this is a one-off event with no real precedent for pollsters to work from.
On 19th September they will either being cock-a-hoop with I told you so, or there will be some very dark accusations being bandied around. I don't think that they are going to accept they may just have misread the mood.
In the last few years there's been only one poll that's shown Yes ahead.
Looking at the Yes supporting stuff on the Internet, including James Kelly's blog and so many others, the level of confidence about winning is sky high. Given that I just cannot believe there isn't something that is being missed in the polls. The alternative is a level of self-deception and denial that would surely be unprecedented in British politics. They are absolutely convinced they are going to win. And that leads me to think they could just do it. If they don't I would expect multiple accusations of vote rigging and the like as they come to terms with what would be a defeat they never expected.
Similar to Labour in '92, perhaps?
Labour did at least have a poll lead at certain times. Yes has never had one, has it? But they are absolutely convinced of victory. There is absolutely no doubt in their minds that the polls are either getting it completely wrong, or that there are a multitude of shy Yes voters or that the polls are being deliberately rigged, or all of the above. Obviously, the rigged point is ridiculous, but the other two are possible given that this is a one-off event with no real precedent for pollsters to work from.
On 19th September they will either being cock-a-hoop with I told you so, or there will be some very dark accusations being bandied around. I don't think that they are going to accept they may just have misread the mood.
They've had a few, the most recent being on the 28th August 2013.
On topic, this is the inevitable result of the aggressive attitude of too many in the Yes campaign. Many women don't like that sort of thing. (many men don't either but the tendency's even stronger with women). The abuse and vitriol poured on anyone who has a different view is off-putting to those with an open mind who prefer more reasoned argument, or at least engagement rather than diatribe.
I thought the Referendum was lost once some cybernats thought it a good idea to call J K Rowling "traitor" "whore" and "bitch".
That was MI5 agents doing the abuse to JK Rowling
Christina McKelvie MSP says 'secret service plants' could be behind trolling of Harry Potter author after she spoke out against independence
British spies may have orchestrated the abusive messages sent to JK Rowling after she spoke out against independence, a leading SNP politician has claimed.
Christina McKelvie said the torrent of online attacks aimed at the Harry Potter author could have been the work of "secret service plants".
Looking at the Yes supporting stuff on the Internet, including James Kelly's blog and so many others, the level of confidence about winning is sky high. Given that I just cannot believe there isn't something that is being missed in the polls. The alternative is a level of self-deception and denial that would surely be unprecedented in British politics. They are absolutely convinced they are going to win. And that leads me to think they could just do it. If they don't I would expect multiple accusations of vote rigging and the like as they come to terms with what would be a defeat they never expected.
Do you do horse racing tips ?
I'll know precisely what to lay on Betfair.
Ha, ha. I have had a sneaky feeling for Yes for a while. But then I was convinced Romney would win too. My prediction record is not unblemished, that is for sure.
On topic, this is the inevitable result of the aggressive attitude of too many in the Yes campaign. Many women don't like that sort of thing. (many men don't either but the tendency's even stronger with women). The abuse and vitriol poured on anyone who has a different view is off-putting to those with an open mind who prefer more reasoned argument, or at least engagement rather than diatribe.
Spot on David.
The sheer nastiness of the YES lobby, particularly online, is a wonder to behold and does their cause no good at all. Their view that everything, from the betting to the polls, is a massive conspiracy does nothing to make their cause attractive.
I keep hearing this, but I'm really not sure how true it is.
Sure Yes campaigners spin and campaign like fury, and there's some nastiness in their ranks. But really any more so than, say, Tory campaigners?
I can certainly think of some internet sites where contributors whose politics differs from the majority are generally treated with hostility, and they're not all Scottish Nationalist sites.
(I'm sympathetic to, but not supportive of, the cause of Scottish Independence, and certainly not a Yes campaigner!)
Women don't like Jabba the Hut. Well I'd never have guessed that.
To be fair on Salmond, he has lost a lot of weight recently, though often looks haggard rather than slim.
I also think he is not as good with money or negotiations as Jabba the Hut!
I know I'm being cruel and unfair, but in the case of both Salmond and Balls I always think it difficult that people could vote for someone who looks like Marin Bormann
Looking at the Yes supporting stuff on the Internet, including James Kelly's blog and so many others, the level of confidence about winning is sky high. Given that I just cannot believe there isn't something that is being missed in the polls. The alternative is a level of self-deception and denial that would surely be unprecedented in British politics. They are absolutely convinced they are going to win. And that leads me to think they could just do it. If they don't I would expect multiple accusations of vote rigging and the like as they come to terms with what would be a defeat they never expected.
As I've said before, there's a lesson here for those of us who want to leave the EU (and we start with a much better polling position than the Scottish Nationalists). I don't doubt that our ground operation would knock the pro-EU side out of the park, and we'd have packed public meetings. But, that may not be enough to win.
The alternative is a level of self-deception and denial that would surely be unprecedented in British politics.
The level of self-deception and denial required to believe the SNP manifesto is already unprecedented. It isn't much of a stretch from there to think other people are daft enough to believe it too
Brain of Britain has spoken, the most self deluded cretin on the planet advises, I think I may vote NO now.
On topic, this is the inevitable result of the aggressive attitude of too many in the Yes campaign. Many women don't like that sort of thing. (many men don't either but the tendency's even stronger with women). The abuse and vitriol poured on anyone who has a different view is off-putting to those with an open mind who prefer more reasoned argument, or at least engagement rather than diatribe.
I thought the Referendum was lost once some cybernats thought it a good idea to call J K Rowling "traitor" "whore" and "bitch".
That was MI5 agents doing the abuse to JK Rowling
Christina McKelvie MSP says 'secret service plants' could be behind trolling of Harry Potter author after she spoke out against independence
British spies may have orchestrated the abusive messages sent to JK Rowling after she spoke out against independence, a leading SNP politician has claimed.
Christina McKelvie said the torrent of online attacks aimed at the Harry Potter author could have been the work of "secret service plants".
A-level grades have edged down this year, as pupils in England, Wales and Northern Ireland receive their results.
There has been a slight fall in A* and A grades and the pass rate is down for the first time in over 30 years.
But there are a record number of university places available and students could still get places even if they miss their grades.
Exam officials say the results of this year's A-levels are broadly "stable". But for the third successive year the A* and A grades have fallen slightly - down from 26.3% to 26%.
There were also marginal falls in the proportion of entries in the A* to B grades. But the very highest A* grade has risen from 7.6% to 8.2%.....
The Joint Council for Qualifications, issuing the results, said there was a trend for more students to take so-called "facilitating subjects" at A-level, such as maths and physics, which can help university applications.
But there have been big falls in the take-up of subjects outside this mainstream group, such as a 24% drop in general studies.
On topic, this is the inevitable result of the aggressive attitude of too many in the Yes campaign. Many women don't like that sort of thing. (many men don't either but the tendency's even stronger with women). The abuse and vitriol poured on anyone who has a different view is off-putting to those with an open mind who prefer more reasoned argument, or at least engagement rather than diatribe.
I thought the Referendum was lost once some cybernats thought it a good idea to call J K Rowling "traitor" "whore" and "bitch".
That was MI5 agents doing the abuse to JK Rowling
Christina McKelvie MSP says 'secret service plants' could be behind trolling of Harry Potter author after she spoke out against independence
British spies may have orchestrated the abusive messages sent to JK Rowling after she spoke out against independence, a leading SNP politician has claimed.
Christina McKelvie said the torrent of online attacks aimed at the Harry Potter author could have been the work of "secret service plants".
Looking at the Yes supporting stuff on the Internet, including James Kelly's blog and so many others, the level of confidence about winning is sky high. Given that I just cannot believe there isn't something that is being missed in the polls. The alternative is a level of self-deception and denial that would surely be unprecedented in British politics. They are absolutely convinced they are going to win. And that leads me to think they could just do it. If they don't I would expect multiple accusations of vote rigging and the like as they come to terms with what would be a defeat they never expected.
I think they're confident of the ground game and late campaign swing.
They probably have cause to be too, but it is starting to look like there's just too much ground to make up.
Your colleagues are dead right. The Euro problem remains fundamentally unsorted. The politics is always to extend and pretend. The Euro problem only has 2 possible eventual outcomes: 1. Full political and economic union - the EUSSR; or 2. End the Euro and return to Lira, Franc, DM, etc Both are politically unachievable - so the Eurozone will fester and blunder relentlessly on into a real debt/GDP collapse.
The pretendy part could be extended for quite a while if the ECB went for QE in a big way (over the Bundesbank's dead body). Another shock, like a recession, will contract the timetable dramatically.
General Studies was an absolute joke of a subject, I and alot of my other classmates did the paper and we all got As with zero prep. I can't imagine it has got any more rigorous in the last 15 years.
Its basically a free A level for anyone with half a brain.
Interesting. I wonder if the gender split on YES/NO plays a part here. The majority of gamblers are men, and men are more likely to be in the YES camp, as are their buddies. Gamblers also tend to hail from the lower socioeconomic groups, which would further reinforce the bias to YES. From that perspective, a YES vote might look nailed on.
The same theory would explain the optimism shown on the Nat blogs, which tend to have a winkle-heavy gender mix.
[Before anyone wades in with "I'm a wealthy female Nat so your argument is bollocks", note the use of "tend to" and "majority" here. Obviously all kinds of people fall in to each group, but I'm talking about biases, not absolutes.]
Whatever happens to David Cameron after a YES vote, it's easy to imagine England swinging very heavily to the Conservative Party to ensure they have a strong party representing England in the negotiations with Scotland.
It's possible Wales would also swing quite heavily to the Tories as well, in this scenario, I think.
With Labour so reliant on Scottish MP's, MP's that will be thrown out of Westminster in 2016, it's hard to see England in particular wanting a Labour government to negotiate with Salmond.
A Conservative landslide in 2015 would be my guess as a result of Scotland leaving the Union. Who would be the leader to benefit from that landslide though, I wonder?
Your theory won't be tested, I doubt a Yes vote would make any difference in VI in England - though Cameron could be forced out (20% chance maybe ?)
Leaving aside the dummy tendency on the tory backbenches, just how is it particularly Cameons's personal fault regarding the situation in Scotland. If any tory leader can be blamed for conservative fortunes in Scotland it is Thatcher. Was Cameron to blame for devolution? Was Cameron to blame for the separatist party the SNP gaining a majority in Scotland? With the SNP gaining a majority was Cameron then supposed to deny them a referendum? Have labour opposed a referendum? Have the libdems? Is Cameron in charge of the NO campaign? Are Miliband and Clegg in favour of YES? How is it that with so many labour and LD seats in Scotland that a putative victory for YES is not seem as political disaster for Clegg and Miliband as well as Cameron?
Only troublemakers with their own self serving ambitions - people like the totally disgraceful David Davis - can possibly claim that a NO win would mean Cameron must resign. (May I add that at the time of the tory leadership election I thought Davis would be the better leader. What a miserable and sad disappointment he has been since.)
The point of the exercise at the time was supposed to be to stop Assad using chemical weapons. This seems to be holding, and it was done without resorting to bombing Assad and therefore strengthening his enemies. You can argue about who deserves the credit - if Ed Miliband helped, it seemed to be mostly accidental - but if it sticks it will have been a huge success, even more so now we know what damage some of the people the bombing would have helped can do.
Do you know the difference between the FSA and the Islamists? Do you care?
As for the chemical weapons: for years, Assad told the world that he had had no chemical weapons. Then he uses them and kills between 200 and 1,700 people, and as a slap on the wrist, the UN destroys all his 'declared' weapons.
You're a fool if you trust him. Yet it suits certain people to do so.
AFAICR, Miliband wanted a parliamentary vote on any intervention. Cameron agreed. Miliband wanted changes to the draft, which Cameron agreed to. Then, on the day of the vote, Miliband reneged on his agreement. Worse, he had no alternative. And Assad continues to commit atrocities to this day - including barrel bombs.
And people are still dying. We have turned our back on the use of chemical weapons for a second time. If we are very lucky this will not come back and bite all our collective backsides ...
Cameron could not convince the Americans, or the EU, besides the House of Commons. The evidence on chemical weapons looks less clear-cut -- subsequent American analysis was said to show they were not fired from Syrian government positions -- though admittedly we have gone to war on dodgier dossiers.
But suppose Labour had voted with the government and we committed ourselves to military action. What would have happened when the Americans declined to join us?
Which brings us back to my main point -- Cameron committing himself (and us) to positions that depend on others doing the heavy lifting, and then being left in the lurch when these other parties change their minds.
[Yes] are absolutely convinced of victory. There is absolutely no doubt in their minds that the polls are either getting it completely wrong, or that there are a multitude of shy Yes voters or that the polls are being deliberately rigged, or all of the above. Obviously, the rigged point is ridiculous, but the other two are possible given that this is a one-off event with no real precedent for pollsters to work from.
A good couple of posts SO.
If we assume for the sake of argument that the opinion polls are reasonably accurate and YES is heading for a landslide defeat in the referendum, why might YES supporters be convinced otherwise?
One reason might be an enthusiasm gap. It's possible that decided YES voters are more enthusiastic about their choice to vote for independence than decided NO voters are about voting for the continuation of the Union. In the end though, this isn't a count about how vigorously respective flags are waved, but simply of votes cast, and an enthusiastic vote for YES will not count any more than a lukewarm vote for NO.
If there is a very determined core to YES support then that could give the impression to YES canvassers that public opinion is with them, particularly if most NO voters are more non-committal when asked in person.
Then I think it would simply be a matter of appealing to the normal set of cognitive biases that we see displayed on pb.com daily such as confirmation bias, inappropriate application of the invariance principle to anecdote, failure of theory of mind, etc.
The point of the exercise at the time was supposed to be to stop Assad using chemical weapons. This seems to be holding, and it was done without resorting to bombing Assad and therefore strengthening his enemies. You can argue about who deserves the credit - if Ed Miliband helped, it seemed to be mostly accidental - but if it sticks it will have been a huge success, even more so now we know what damage some of the people the bombing would have helped can do.
Do you know the difference between the FSA and the Islamists? Do you care?
Sure, we've been over this. Conventionally, if you attack an army that's fighting two different enemies, you help both those enemies. Assad was fighting ISIS as well as the FSA, so bombing Assad's military helps ISIS.
If the true probabilities are lets say 1-6, 6-1 then the average punter will prefer to bet on a 4-1 shot rather than the 1-7 favourite.
For £20 stake most people aren't interested in £22.86 return, they'd rather try and win £100, even if the 1-7 shot is actually the better value.
People waging more serious cash will attempt to make more sober assessments of the true odds..
Also I'd be willing to bet (arf!) that more gamblers betting on this are male and more risk loving and more likely to be Yes supporters, and so there is a slight "heart" element to the bet.
Shadsy filled his boots with UKIP punters in Newark remember.
The point of the exercise at the time was supposed to be to stop Assad using chemical weapons. This seems to be holding, and it was done without resorting to bombing Assad and therefore strengthening his enemies. You can argue about who deserves the credit - if Ed Miliband helped, it seemed to be mostly accidental - but if it sticks it will have been a huge success, even more so now we know what damage some of the people the bombing would have helped can do.
Do you know the difference between the FSA and the Islamists? Do you care?
As for the chemical weapons: for years, Assad told the world that he had had no chemical weapons. Then he uses them and kills between 200 and 1,700 people, and as a slap on the wrist, the UN destroys all his 'declared' weapons.
You're a fool if you trust him. Yet it suits certain people to do so.
AFAICR, Miliband wanted a parliamentary vote on any intervention. Cameron agreed. Miliband wanted changes to the draft, which Cameron agreed to. Then, on the day of the vote, Miliband reneged on his agreement. Worse, he had no alternative. And Assad continues to commit atrocities to this day - including barrel bombs.
And people are still dying. We have turned our back on the use of chemical weapons for a second time. If we are very lucky this will not come back and bite all our collective backsides ...
Cameron could not convince the Americans, or the EU, besides the House of Commons. The evidence on chemical weapons looks less clear-cut -- subsequent American analysis was said to show they were not fired from Syrian government positions -- though admittedly we have gone to war on dodgier dossiers.
But suppose Labour had voted with the government and we committed ourselves to military action. What would have happened when the Americans declined to join us?
Which brings us back to my main point -- Cameron committing himself (and us) to positions that depend on others doing the heavy lifting, and then being left in the lurch when these other parties change their minds.
Mr Decrepit John that is a pathetic comment. Persuade the HoC? Labour renaiged on an agreement. In case you have forgotten 2010 left the tories short of a majority in the HC. How was Cameron supposed to 'persuade the Americans' after the HoC voted against intervention. Mr Jesspos comments are absolutely *absolutely* valid. And in case you have forgotten (in fact clearly you are clueless about the actual motion) the vote in parliament was not one for immediate action. Labour and thick tory backbenchers would not even vote for the preliminary motion on offer.
Cameron is not over committing us. What you are doing is leaping on to any passing bandwaggon to smear Cameron.
Interesting stats on Will Hill bets on referendum. twitter.com/X_Sticks_Real/status/498951742051340288/photo/1
Would be interesting to see percentage of the total amount bet, too.
Supposedly someone in London put £600K ( £200K and £400K )on NO so that would certainly skew everything. I am very surprised though at the high % for YES in Scotland, in every city as well.
Interesting stats on Will Hill bets on referendum. twitter.com/X_Sticks_Real/status/498951742051340288/photo/1
Would be interesting to see percentage of the total amount bet, too.
Supposedly someone in London put £600K ( £200K and £400K )on NO so that would certainly skew everything. I am very surprised though at the high % for YES in Scotland, in every city as well.
Well it would only skew the London figure, surely?
A couple of guys at work today think another Euro crisis is now inevitable, France and Italy have to roll over €500bn worth of debt over the next year and if no growth can be found in either they think that the debt markets will pull support and squirrel money into safe havens. No one believes that the ECB will step up, they have flunked it too many times now.
I also think France are in a recession but the INSEE figures have been massaged to show stagnation. By my count using private indicators from France and a few public figures I get a contraction last quarter of -0.1% and this quarter of -0.3%, over time I expect INSEE to converge on these figures, probably when a quarter of growth is recorded.
Next is the looming spectre of deflation. Spain, Italy, France and Portugal are all in debt deflation traps. Germany is moving towards one. It means even if these countries cut government spending their nominal debt to GDP ratio will continue to rise. Italy actually runs a primary surplus and yet their debt to GDP is rising faster than over here and the UK government will officially record a 5.6% deficit this year. Again it is up to the ECB to weaken the Euro and monetise EMU debt. The snag is that Germany will eat up the lion's share of any gains leaving the rest of the EMU with a few scraps.
Domestically, a crisis that hits in April would be a godsend for the current government, it could even result in a Con majority as it will make the economic indicators count for a lot more. If the people believe that the Tories are better suited to deal with any crisis then they will win. Any earlier or later would not be as effective but could still boost Tory fortunes.
Looking at the Yes supporting stuff on the Internet, including James Kelly's blog and so many others, the level of confidence about winning is sky high. Given that I just cannot believe there isn't something that is being missed in the polls. The alternative is a level of self-deception and denial that would surely be unprecedented in British politics. They are absolutely convinced they are going to win. And that leads me to think they could just do it. If they don't I would expect multiple accusations of vote rigging and the like as they come to terms with what would be a defeat they never expected.
I think they're confident of the ground game and late campaign swing.
They probably have cause to be too, but it is starting to look like there's just too much ground to make up.
This much lauded "ground game" has reached all of 9% of voters doorsteps:
Even so, only 9% of voters say that the Yes Scotland campaign has knocked on their door, which perhaps cast some doubt on the extent of that campaign’s much mentioned focus on person to person contact. although the figure still beats the 5% achieved by Better Together
Either SO's fears are confirmed and as well as a political earthquake this will be a disaster for the polling firms - or the separatists have spent so much time talking to themselves and have such low tolerance of differing opinions, they are in for a rude awakening on the 19th.
The alternative is a level of self-deception and denial that would surely be unprecedented in British politics.
The level of self-deception and denial required to believe the SNP manifesto is already unprecedented. It isn't much of a stretch from there to think other people are daft enough to believe it too
Darling's challenge to Salmond : 'I want you to do something that is really difficult. I want you to contemplate for just one minute you might be wrong", could be applied most Nat posters. They've been brain-washed into a state of fanatical belief which may turn even nastier when it collides with defeat.
A-level grades have edged down this year, as pupils in England, Wales and Northern Ireland receive their results.
There has been a slight fall in A* and A grades and the pass rate is down for the first time in over 30 years.
But there are a record number of university places available and students could still get places even if they miss their grades.
Exam officials say the results of this year's A-levels are broadly "stable". But for the third successive year the A* and A grades have fallen slightly - down from 26.3% to 26%.
There were also marginal falls in the proportion of entries in the A* to B grades. But the very highest A* grade has risen from 7.6% to 8.2%.....
The Joint Council for Qualifications, issuing the results, said there was a trend for more students to take so-called "facilitating subjects" at A-level, such as maths and physics, which can help university applications.
But there have been big falls in the take-up of subjects outside this mainstream group, such as a 24% drop in general studies.
Looking at the Yes supporting stuff on the Internet, including James Kelly's blog and so many others, the level of confidence about winning is sky high. Given that I just cannot believe there isn't something that is being missed in the polls. The alternative is a level of self-deception and denial that would surely be unprecedented in British politics. They are absolutely convinced they are going to win. And that leads me to think they could just do it. If they don't I would expect multiple accusations of vote rigging and the like as they come to terms with what would be a defeat they never expected.
I think they're confident of the ground game and late campaign swing.
They probably have cause to be too, but it is starting to look like there's just too much ground to make up.
This much lauded "ground game" has reached all of 9% of voters doorsteps:
Even so, only 9% of voters say that the Yes Scotland campaign has knocked on their door, which perhaps cast some doubt on the extent of that campaign’s much mentioned focus on person to person contact. although the figure still beats the 5% achieved by Better Together
Either SO's fears are confirmed and as well as a political earthquake this will be a disaster for the polling firms - or the separatists have spent so much time talking to themselves and have such low tolerance of differing opinions, they are in for a rude awakening on the 19th.
Meanwhile Comical James continues to entertain.
I know we are in the dangerous territory of subsamples here, but does the poll say what the split of Yes/No is for the 9% and 5% visited?
A-level grades have edged down this year, as pupils in England, Wales and Northern Ireland receive their results.
There has been a slight fall in A* and A grades and the pass rate is down for the first time in over 30 years.
But there are a record number of university places available and students could still get places even if they miss their grades.
Exam officials say the results of this year's A-levels are broadly "stable". But for the third successive year the A* and A grades have fallen slightly - down from 26.3% to 26%.
There were also marginal falls in the proportion of entries in the A* to B grades. But the very highest A* grade has risen from 7.6% to 8.2%.....
It is not very clear what happened to A* -- up or down? But really the whole grade inflation/deflation thing is overplayed -- this cohort is competing amongst itself for university places, not the students of 10 years ago or 10 years hence.
Looking at the Yes supporting stuff on the Internet, including James Kelly's blog and so many others, the level of confidence about winning is sky high. Given that I just cannot believe there isn't something that is being missed in the polls. The alternative is a level of self-deception and denial that would surely be unprecedented in British politics. They are absolutely convinced they are going to win. And that leads me to think they could just do it. If they don't I would expect multiple accusations of vote rigging and the like as they come to terms with what would be a defeat they never expected.
I think they're confident of the ground game and late campaign swing.
They probably have cause to be too, but it is starting to look like there's just too much ground to make up.
I saw something recently , cannot find it again , re a mass canvas done on one day , was over 5000 doors. Think it was 60%+ YES when you took out the Don't Knows which were about 30% of total. Presume it was in working/lower class area and would be exactly the people who are never in the usual polls and will be the majority of voters. Given that many who have never voted will vote in this referendum , there may be shocks for some people. It will not follow GE lines for sure.
For comedy reporting of a poll that shows Women 60:40 against Indy (excluding DK) it would be hard to top "No lead slumps by 3% in new female only Survation poll"......
Ahh, Scot Goes Pop. The greatest satire site there is (apart from Wings Over Scotland, maybe)
And yet it seems to hold a hypnotic attraction for the denizens of PB. A shame none of them have the courage to use their monikers when they make their occasional 'contributions'.
They do not have the balls to be anything other than anonymous , your typical mealy mouthed unionist.
Says "malcolmG" talking to "Theuniondivvie". Neither anonymous, of course
Surely malcolmg works for the "No" side ? I see no other explanation.
Flash, we know you are not very bright, luckily for you Scott and Monica persist in posting and keep you off the bottom.
Och malc - even you must know the game is up. 60-40 No win - nailed on.
The point of the exercise at the time was supposed to be to stop Assad using chemical weapons. This seems to be holding, and it was done without resorting to bombing Assad and therefore strengthening his enemies. You can argue about who deserves the credit - if Ed Miliband helped, it seemed to be mostly accidental - but if it sticks it will have been a huge success, even more so now we know what damage some of the people the bombing would have helped can do.
Do you know the difference between the FSA and the Islamists? Do you care?
Sure, we've been over this. Conventionally, if you attack an army that's fighting two different enemies, you help both those enemies. Assad was fighting ISIS as well as the FSA, so bombing Assad's military helps ISIS.
Oh, I don't know about that. It seems that both ISIS and Assad saw the FSA as their most important enemy, so the only people fighting two different enemies were the FSA.
I agree with your point on the chemical weapons, though.
Cameron could not convince the Americans, or the EU, besides the House of Commons. The evidence on chemical weapons looks less clear-cut -- subsequent American analysis was said to show they were not fired from Syrian government positions -- though admittedly we have gone to war on dodgier dossiers.
But suppose Labour had voted with the government and we committed ourselves to military action. What would have happened when the Americans declined to join us?
Which brings us back to my main point -- Cameron committing himself (and us) to positions that depend on others doing the heavy lifting, and then being left in the lurch when these other parties change their minds.
My understanding is that the arrangement and wording of the vote was done with the full knowledge of the Americans (after Miliband's agreed changes), therefore it is up to you to prove the 'when' in your comment. Without UK agreement, America could not go ahead with its plans and the whole thing fell apart.
Can I have links to you other assertions, just to check you are not falling for Syrian and Russian propaganda?
There is a deeply moral position here. The west made a big mistake in not condemning Saddam's use of chemical weapons against Hallabjah and elsewhere. It was a typical case of when 'my enemy's enemy is our friend' led us to make the wrong decision.
We have now let the use of chemical weapons on a civilian population go unpunished again. As well as the moral complexities of this, it is a green light for other states and terrorist organisations to use them because we just sit back and do nothing when they are used.
If the true probabilities are lets say 1-6, 6-1 then the average punter will prefer to bet on a 4-1 shot rather than the 1-7 favourite.
For £20 stake most people aren't interested in £22.86 return, they'd rather try and win £100, even if the 1-7 shot is actually the better value.
People waging more serious cash will attempt to make more sober assessments of the true odds..
Also I'd be willing to bet (arf!) that more gamblers betting on this are male and more risk loving and more likely to be Yes supporters, and so there is a slight "heart" element to the bet.
Shadsy filled his boots with UKIP punters in Newark remember.
Yes, you certainly cannot judge anything by betting in a bookie's for sure.
Comments
The real vandals in the case of one of our local houses were the property developers who had a mix up with a newly created demolition firm. This resulted in a listed building being demolished without consent, and the immediate liquidation of said demolition firm.
I can't see how the Tories would ever be able to pass legislation to allow the UK to leave the ECHR. Even if the Tories had a small majority, there would be many Tory MP's against this, who would vote against. As the 2010 new intake of Tory MP's have proved, they can be fairly independent on some issues and I suspect human rights will be one such issue. I also think that the UK public will be against such a move.
Mostly it is posing for the gallery, Invent an enemy, blame all that is bad on them, and you can watch your approval ratings soar.
One might assume that people would be smart enough to see through it, but you would be wrong.
The sheer nastiness of the YES lobby, particularly online, is a wonder to behold and does their cause no good at all. Their view that everything, from the betting to the polls, is a massive conspiracy does nothing to make their cause attractive.
(There were also cases where the 'owners' were non-resident; inheritance passed down the chain until it belongs to someone who has absolutely no connection with the property. Faced with a large bill, it seemed the obvious choice).
And the state allowed - and even in many cases actively encouraged - them to do it. Easterross's story below about a house being used for road stone is far from unique.
There is a certain mindset in some that the only way to bring about social change is to destroy the old and replace with the new.
Fortunately, such hideous mindsets did not always win, as at Wentworth Woodhouse:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wentworth_Woodhouse
We even see this recently in Prescott's hideous, awful, farcical, expensive (add more lamentations as appropriate) Pathfinder scheme.
Crazy.
(Although I must admit that my family's business was demolition, groundworks and building, mainly industrial)
No, it is a matter for the English people to decide, parliament is subservient to the will of the population, or had you forgotten?
China and Russia will be following this closely; very closely.
A variant of which was Lord Brocket's hilarious attempt to defraud insurance over his Ferraris, which he dismantled and buried on his grounds:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/peer-faces-jail-after-admitting-pounds-45m-car-fraud-1526609.html
The !afire! method happened one night to Uttoxeter station building in 1987, shortly after a group had been formed to preserve it for community use ...
Cultural vandalism.
I'm not calling for things to remain in aspic: just that the cultural value of something should be acknowledged before any change. Something the listing system does reasonably well at the moment.
According to the news reports that was what happened, but if you know different fill us with your knowledge.
German GDP contracted by 0.2% in the three months to the end of June, figures show, after growing by 0.7% in the first quarter.
Germany's Federal Statistics Office said the economy was "losing momentum" after its trade balance had a negative effect on economic development.
And official figures show the French economy saw no growth in the quarter.
France has now seen two quarters of zero growth. The lack of growth was weaker than many economists had expected.
France's statistics agency, INSEE, said that GDP had "remained steady" in the second quarter.
It said that manufacturing output decreased again after a "high number of potential extra days off this quarter due to midweek public holidays."
French finance minister Michel Sapin said that France was unlikely to meet its deficit target for this year.
"The truth is that, as a direct consequence of sluggish growth and insufficient inflation, France will not meet its public deficit target this year despite a complete control of spending," Sapin wrote in newspaper Le Monde.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-28783850
Increased competition on price has meant lost industrial export contracts for Germany..
"However, in a statement, the Pentagon said there were now "far fewer Yazidis on Mount Sinjar than previously feared", partly because thousands had evacuated from the mountain each night over the past days.
"The Yazidis who remain are in better condition than previously believed and continue to have access to the food and water that we have dropped," the statement said.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-28783068
I wonder how much these online contributions of the last 24 hours (a small selection) have done to make the No cause attractive? These people's version of civilised discourse is not issuing death threats.
Kruude @ChaIIenger · 8h
@GenYes2014 You're a real c**t you know. You may say Scotland Indy is a good thing you don't gain anything all you nationalists are idiots.
jill cruickshank @jillyyyy18 · 11h
Salmond wants independence but yet is still relying on the Bank Of England for financial stability. Where is the independence In that? #twat
Nick Matavka @nmatavka · 11h
@samboardman99 @blairmcdougall @StA_Tories @BBCScot2014 That's a tautology, like saying "bovine cow". SNP is by definition "liar/bastard".
James Dolan @JCDOLAN · 9h
yes vote support in Scotland have shown their true colours tonight. We'll never be mastered by those SNP bastards
Instead, it's got immeasurably worse and spread to other countries. Yet you still try to claim it as a victory.
Incredible.
If Salmond performs in the same vein in the next debates is he ... er... 'toast'?
If it makes sense to them, they will have it, on the other hand there is no will at the moment, so it is a moot point
Independence is a risk. It also has potential rewards.
So the more risk loving parts of the population will be more predisposed to "Yes"
The Nats may argue that "No" is a risk too, but maintaining the status quo is generally perceived as less of a risk than a major change.
And here is the killer - women are more risk averse than men.[1][2]
[1] http://people.exeter.ac.uk/maf206/eckel_grossman_2003.pdf
[2] http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2741240/
The SNP are determined to avoid that as long as they can
Look at the news footage? The very old and the very young seem to have reached safety, Now if you were a youngish Yazidi male who had just been chased out of your home, and your kinsmen killed? Now look at the mountain in relation to the geography, and tell me that while the old and young were going one way, truckloads of ammunition and weapons were not going the other way?
http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/local/ukip-pays-fine-to-end-misery-for-pensioner-1-6237951
Time you went and chapped Kate Bush's door see if she could offer you some tea and commonsense.
The Times this morning reports that US Special Forces are saying the situation on this mountain is not as bad as feared or reported and the numbers involved are fewer.
Situations like this show that what we need is satellite support air support drones and special forces. For anything in/near Euorpe or the near/middle east or North Africa we do not need aircraft carriers. What we need are Special Forces. We need to expand recruit and retain and equip our special forces without diluting the quality.
http://youtu.be/DuI23zCudKY
Yes the Eurozone crisis refuses to go away and unfortunately is likely to impinge on us - although our own growth rate has been upgraded for next year. All that you quote puts all the moans about 'cost of living crisis' in perspective I think.
In other respects the state of the Eurozone might well give Cameron some leverage in any negotiations after 2015. ??
Certainly looked like a typical unionist day out.
I'll know precisely what to lay on Betfair.
As for the chemical weapons: for years, Assad told the world that he had had no chemical weapons. Then he uses them and kills between 200 and 1,700 people, and as a slap on the wrist, the UN destroys all his 'declared' weapons.
You're a fool if you trust him. Yet it suits certain people to do so.
AFAICR, Miliband wanted a parliamentary vote on any intervention. Cameron agreed. Miliband wanted changes to the draft, which Cameron agreed to. Then, on the day of the vote, Miliband reneged on his agreement. Worse, he had no alternative. And Assad continues to commit atrocities to this day - including barrel bombs.
And people are still dying. We have turned our back on the use of chemical weapons for a second time. If we are very lucky this will not come back and bite all our collective backsides ...
Christina McKelvie MSP says 'secret service plants' could be behind trolling of Harry Potter author after she spoke out against independence
British spies may have orchestrated the abusive messages sent to JK Rowling after she spoke out against independence, a leading SNP politician has claimed.
Christina McKelvie said the torrent of online attacks aimed at the Harry Potter author could have been the work of "secret service plants".
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/10929129/British-spies-may-have-sent-online-abuse-to-JK-Rowling-SNP-politician-warns.html
I also think France are in a recession but the INSEE figures have been massaged to show stagnation. By my count using private indicators from France and a few public figures I get a contraction last quarter of -0.1% and this quarter of -0.3%, over time I expect INSEE to converge on these figures, probably when a quarter of growth is recorded.
Next is the looming spectre of deflation. Spain, Italy, France and Portugal are all in debt deflation traps. Germany is moving towards one. It means even if these countries cut government spending their nominal debt to GDP ratio will continue to rise. Italy actually runs a primary surplus and yet their debt to GDP is rising faster than over here and the UK government will officially record a 5.6% deficit this year. Again it is up to the ECB to weaken the Euro and monetise EMU debt. The snag is that Germany will eat up the lion's share of any gains leaving the rest of the EMU with a few scraps.
Domestically, a crisis that hits in April would be a godsend for the current government, it could even result in a Con majority as it will make the economic indicators count for a lot more. If the people believe that the Tories are better suited to deal with any crisis then they will win. Any earlier or later would not be as effective but could still boost Tory fortunes.
On 19th September they will either being cock-a-hoop with I told you so, or there will be some very dark accusations being bandied around. I don't think that they are going to accept they may just have misread the mood.
Miliband's version of it was that, some of the changes they agreed on were not made to the bill when it went to the vote.
Not that you will believe it, just saying.
That was a year ago.
twitter.com/X_Sticks_Real/status/498951742051340288/photo/1
Sure Yes campaigners spin and campaign like fury, and there's some nastiness in their ranks. But really any more so than, say, Tory campaigners?
I can certainly think of some internet sites where contributors whose politics differs from the majority are generally treated with hostility, and they're not all Scottish Nationalist sites.
(I'm sympathetic to, but not supportive of, the cause of Scottish Independence, and certainly not a Yes campaigner!)
There has been a slight fall in A* and A grades and the pass rate is down for the first time in over 30 years.
But there are a record number of university places available and students could still get places even if they miss their grades.
Exam officials say the results of this year's A-levels are broadly "stable". But for the third successive year the A* and A grades have fallen slightly - down from 26.3% to 26%.
There were also marginal falls in the proportion of entries in the A* to B grades. But the very highest A* grade has risen from 7.6% to 8.2%.....
The Joint Council for Qualifications, issuing the results, said there was a trend for more students to take so-called "facilitating subjects" at A-level, such as maths and physics, which can help university applications.
But there have been big falls in the take-up of subjects outside this mainstream group, such as a 24% drop in general studies.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-28772974
They probably have cause to be too, but it is starting to look like there's just too much ground to make up.
Your colleagues are dead right. The Euro problem remains fundamentally unsorted. The politics is always to extend and pretend. The Euro problem only has 2 possible eventual outcomes:
1. Full political and economic union - the EUSSR; or
2. End the Euro and return to Lira, Franc, DM, etc
Both are politically unachievable - so the Eurozone will fester and blunder relentlessly on into a real debt/GDP collapse.
The pretendy part could be extended for quite a while if the ECB went for QE in a big way (over the Bundesbank's dead body). Another shock, like a recession, will contract the timetable dramatically.
Its basically a free A level for anyone with half a brain.
The same theory would explain the optimism shown on the Nat blogs, which tend to have a winkle-heavy gender mix.
[Before anyone wades in with "I'm a wealthy female Nat so your argument is bollocks", note the use of "tend to" and "majority" here. Obviously all kinds of people fall in to each group, but I'm talking about biases, not absolutes.]
Was Cameron to blame for devolution? Was Cameron to blame for the separatist party the SNP gaining a majority in Scotland? With the SNP gaining a majority was Cameron then supposed to deny them a referendum? Have labour opposed a referendum? Have the libdems? Is Cameron in charge of the NO campaign? Are Miliband and Clegg in favour of YES? How is it that with so many labour and LD seats in Scotland that a putative victory for YES is not seem as political disaster for Clegg and Miliband as well as Cameron?
Only troublemakers with their own self serving ambitions - people like the totally disgraceful David Davis - can possibly claim that a NO win would mean Cameron must resign.
(May I add that at the time of the tory leadership election I thought Davis would be the better leader. What a miserable and sad disappointment he has been since.)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/hs2/11033022/HS2-could-threaten-GP-numbers-by-disrupting-medical-exams.html
But suppose Labour had voted with the government and we committed ourselves to military action. What would have happened when the Americans declined to join us?
Which brings us back to my main point -- Cameron committing himself (and us) to positions that depend on others doing the heavy lifting, and then being left in the lurch when these other parties change their minds.
If we assume for the sake of argument that the opinion polls are reasonably accurate and YES is heading for a landslide defeat in the referendum, why might YES supporters be convinced otherwise?
One reason might be an enthusiasm gap. It's possible that decided YES voters are more enthusiastic about their choice to vote for independence than decided NO voters are about voting for the continuation of the Union. In the end though, this isn't a count about how vigorously respective flags are waved, but simply of votes cast, and an enthusiastic vote for YES will not count any more than a lukewarm vote for NO.
If there is a very determined core to YES support then that could give the impression to YES canvassers that public opinion is with them, particularly if most NO voters are more non-committal when asked in person.
Then I think it would simply be a matter of appealing to the normal set of cognitive biases that we see displayed on pb.com daily such as confirmation bias, inappropriate application of the invariance principle to anecdote, failure of theory of mind, etc.
For £20 stake most people aren't interested in £22.86 return, they'd rather try and win £100, even if the 1-7 shot is actually the better value.
People waging more serious cash will attempt to make more sober assessments of the true odds..
Also I'd be willing to bet (arf!) that more gamblers betting on this are male and more risk loving and more likely to be Yes supporters, and so there is a slight "heart" element to the bet.
Shadsy filled his boots with UKIP punters in Newark remember.
Mr Jesspos comments are absolutely *absolutely* valid.
And in case you have forgotten (in fact clearly you are clueless about the actual motion) the vote in parliament was not one for immediate action. Labour and thick tory backbenchers would not even vote for the preliminary motion on offer.
Cameron is not over committing us. What you are doing is leaping on to any passing bandwaggon to smear Cameron.
I am very surprised though at the high % for YES in Scotland, in every city as well.
Even so, only 9% of voters say that the Yes Scotland campaign has knocked on their door, which perhaps cast some doubt on the extent of that campaign’s much mentioned focus on person to person contact. although the figure still beats the 5% achieved by Better Together
http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/08/yougov-yes-vote-remains-steady-but-low/
Either SO's fears are confirmed and as well as a political earthquake this will be a disaster for the polling firms - or the separatists have spent so much time talking to themselves and have such low tolerance of differing opinions, they are in for a rude awakening on the 19th.
Meanwhile Comical James continues to entertain.
Not quite the Armageddon that Gove haters led us to expect.
I agree with your point on the chemical weapons, though.
Can I have links to you other assertions, just to check you are not falling for Syrian and Russian propaganda?
There is a deeply moral position here. The west made a big mistake in not condemning Saddam's use of chemical weapons against Hallabjah and elsewhere. It was a typical case of when 'my enemy's enemy is our friend' led us to make the wrong decision.
We have now let the use of chemical weapons on a civilian population go unpunished again. As well as the moral complexities of this, it is a green light for other states and terrorist organisations to use them because we just sit back and do nothing when they are used.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraq_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction#Chemical_weapon_attacks