Christine Grace @Chris_Grace Aug 11 @X_Sticks_Real I don't understand this. Are they polling punters as they leave the shops? If those figures were real I'd pop the champagne.
Looking at the Yes supporting stuff on the Internet, including James Kelly's blog and so many others, the level of confidence about winning is sky high. Given that I just cannot believe there isn't something that is being missed in the polls. The alternative is a level of self-deception and denial that would surely be unprecedented in British politics. They are absolutely convinced they are going to win. And that leads me to think they could just do it. If they don't I would expect multiple accusations of vote rigging and the like as they come to terms with what would be a defeat they never expected.
I think they're confident of the ground game and late campaign swing.
They probably have cause to be too, but it is starting to look like there's just too much ground to make up.
This much lauded "ground game" has reached all of 9% of voters doorsteps:
Even so, only 9% of voters say that the Yes Scotland campaign has knocked on their door, which perhaps cast some doubt on the extent of that campaign’s much mentioned focus on person to person contact. although the figure still beats the 5% achieved by Better Together
Either SO's fears are confirmed and as well as a political earthquake this will be a disaster for the polling firms - or the separatists have spent so much time talking to themselves and have such low tolerance of differing opinions, they are in for a rude awakening on the 19th.
Meanwhile Comical James continues to entertain.
Given you will be certain to be one of the "anonymous" posters and find it comical. Are you able to debunk any of his numbers.
The point of the exercise at the time was supposed to be to stop Assad using chemical weapons. This seems to be holding, and it was done without resorting to bombing Assad and therefore strengthening his enemies. You can argue about who deserves the credit - if Ed Miliband helped, it seemed to be mostly accidental - but if it sticks it will have been a huge success, even more so now we know what damage some of the people the bombing would have helped can do.
Do you know the difference between the FSA and the Islamists? Do you care?
Sure, we've been over this. Conventionally, if you attack an army that's fighting two different enemies, you help both those enemies. Assad was fighting ISIS as well as the FSA, so bombing Assad's military helps ISIS.
Oh, I don't know about that. It seems that both ISIS and Assad saw the FSA as their most important enemy, so the only people fighting two different enemies were the FSA.
I agree with your point on the chemical weapons, though.
Interesting stats on Will Hill bets on referendum. twitter.com/X_Sticks_Real/status/498951742051340288/photo/1
Would be interesting to see percentage of the total amount bet, too.
Supposedly someone in London put £600K ( £200K and £400K )on NO so that would certainly skew everything. I am very surprised though at the high % for YES in Scotland, in every city as well.
Well it would only skew the London figure, surely?
yes but given it is 25% / 75% yes / no that would support it.
Mr Decrepit John that is a pathetic comment. Persuade the HoC? Labour renaiged on an agreement. In case you have forgotten 2010 left the tories short of a majority in the HC. How was Cameron supposed to 'persuade the Americans' after the HoC voted against intervention. Mr Jesspos comments are absolutely *absolutely* valid. And in case you have forgotten (in fact clearly you are clueless about the actual motion) the vote in parliament was not one for immediate action. Labour and thick tory backbenchers would not even vote for the preliminary motion on offer.
Cameron is not over committing us. What you are doing is leaping on to any passing bandwaggon to smear Cameron.
I'm not smearing Cameron, and Syria is peripheral to the main point.
On Syria, independently of Ed Miliband's supposed treachery and the "thick Tory backbenchers", the Americans and Europeans were also opposed to action. So if Cameron had got his result, he'd have been isolated.
A couple of guys at work today think another Euro crisis is now inevitable, France and Italy have to roll over €500bn worth of debt over the next year and if no growth can be found in either they think that the debt markets will pull support and squirrel money into safe havens. No one believes that the ECB will step up, they have flunked it too many times now.
I also think France are in a recession but the INSEE figures have been massaged to show stagnation. By my count using private indicators from France and a few public figures I get a contraction last quarter of -0.1% and this quarter of -0.3%, over time I expect INSEE to converge on these figures, probably when a quarter of growth is recorded.
Next is the looming spectre of deflation. Spain, Italy, France and Portugal are all in debt deflation traps. Germany is moving towards one. It means even if these countries cut government spending their nominal debt to GDP ratio will continue to rise. Italy actually runs a primary surplus and yet their debt to GDP is rising faster than over here and the UK government will officially record a 5.6% deficit this year. Again it is up to the ECB to weaken the Euro and monetise EMU debt. The snag is that Germany will eat up the lion's share of any gains leaving the rest of the EMU with a few scraps.
Domestically, a crisis that hits in April would be a godsend for the current government, it could even result in a Con majority as it will make the economic indicators count for a lot more. If the people believe that the Tories are better suited to deal with any crisis then they will win. Any earlier or later would not be as effective but could still boost Tory fortunes.
Are you suggesting a campaign theme: "this is no time for a novice?"
The conspiracy nut in me is still convinced that Brown and Bush let Lehman Bros go under solely to be able to run such a campaign.
Christine Grace @Chris_Grace Aug 11 @X_Sticks_Real I don't understand this. Are they polling punters as they leave the shops? If those figures were real I'd pop the champagne.
Nothing different from what you see on times / telegraph/ mail / etc every day. Most people do not really understand. However in general people in Scotland are far more knowledgeable on England than vice versa. I am constantly amazed at the total ignorance re Scotland by lots of supposedly intelligent ( in their eyes at least ) posters on here.
Christine Grace @Chris_Grace Aug 11 @X_Sticks_Real I don't understand this. Are they polling punters as they leave the shops? If those figures were real I'd pop the champagne.
Looking at the Yes supporting stuff on the Internet, including James Kelly's blog and so many others, the level of confidence about winning is sky high. Given that I just cannot believe there isn't something that is being missed in the polls. The alternative is a level of self-deception and denial that would surely be unprecedented in British politics. They are absolutely convinced they are going to win. And that leads me to think they could just do it. If they don't I would expect multiple accusations of vote rigging and the like as they come to terms with what would be a defeat they never expected.
I think they're confident of the ground game and late campaign swing.
They probably have cause to be too, but it is starting to look like there's just too much ground to make up.
I saw something recently , cannot find it again , re a mass canvas done on one day , was over 5000 doors. Think it was 60%+ YES when you took out the Don't Knows which were about 30% of total. Presume it was in working/lower class area and would be exactly the people who are never in the usual polls and will be the majority of voters. Given that many who have never voted will vote in this referendum , there may be shocks for some people. It will not follow GE lines for sure.
Malcolm, history has always shown, self selecting canvass returns are less accurate than opinion polls.
In the 1936 Presidential Election, a Literary digest poll of its readers, some 2 million people replied, and the polling showed that Alf Landon was going to defeat FDR quite comfortably.
A Gallup poll of a much smaller sample size, of around 50k, said the FDR was going to win.
Gallup got the election spot on.
If canvass returns were accurate, Ron Paul would be US President right now.
The point of the exercise at the time was supposed to be to stop Assad using chemical weapons. This seems to be holding, and it was done without resorting to bombing Assad and therefore strengthening his enemies. You can argue about who deserves the credit - if Ed Miliband helped, it seemed to be mostly accidental - but if it sticks it will have been a huge success, even more so now we know what damage some of the people the bombing would have helped can do.
Do you know the difference between the FSA and the Islamists? Do you care?
Sure, we've been over this. Conventionally, if you attack an army that's fighting two different enemies, you help both those enemies. Assad was fighting ISIS as well as the FSA, so bombing Assad's military helps ISIS.
Not really. Strikes could easily have helped the FSA more than the Islamists - people forget quite how fragile Assad's regime was at the time, which was why they used chemical weapons on the outskirts of their own capital.
You are also ignoring bast@rds like al-Nusra (who are actually fighting ISIS at the moment). There are more than three players.
Read up on the FSA. It was set up by army defectors from the Syrian Army, and is broadly secular. They are now being fought by A Nusra, ISIS, the Assad regime and others.
At worst, such strikes would have made no difference tactically and strategically, but would have left a message about the use of chemical weapons. At best, they may have persuaded Assad to step down and accept an offered Russian 'retirement', after which the FSA and Syrian Army could have turned on the Islamists. The middle ground would have been constraining the war within Syria, without it spreading outside.
All of these options are better than what we got.
And the west are now arming the Kurds. It may be our only option, but it is a very dangerous one.
Christine Grace @Chris_Grace Aug 11 @X_Sticks_Real I don't understand this. Are they polling punters as they leave the shops? If those figures were real I'd pop the champagne.
Nothing different from what you see on times / telegraph/ mail / etc every day. Most people do not really understand.
However in general people in Scotland are far more knowledgeable on England than vice versa. I am constantly amazed at the total ignorance re Scotland by lots of supposedly intelligent ( in their eyes at least ) posters on here.
Would it be cruel to ask you to remind me, of what you said when I and others from England backed UKIP to win a seat in Scotland in the Euros.
On Syria, independently of Ed Miliband's supposed treachery and the "thick Tory backbenchers", the Americans and Europeans were also opposed to action. So if Cameron had got his result, he'd have been isolated.
Not necessarily, IIUC Obama was just going to go ahead without a vote, then the UK voted no, Obama agreed to let Congress vote, realized he was going to lose it and cut a deal with the Russians. So no opposition from Ed, no vote in Congress, no deal with the Russians. Conceivably also no ultimate removal of chemical weapons, and an escalating campaign against Assad, to the benefit of the FSA and ISIS.
A-level grades have edged down this year, as pupils in England, Wales and Northern Ireland receive their results.
There has been a slight fall in A* and A grades and the pass rate is down for the first time in over 30 years.
But there are a record number of university places available and students could still get places even if they miss their grades.
Exam officials say the results of this year's A-levels are broadly "stable". But for the third successive year the A* and A grades have fallen slightly - down from 26.3% to 26%.
There were also marginal falls in the proportion of entries in the A* to B grades. But the very highest A* grade has risen from 7.6% to 8.2%.....
It is not very clear what happened to A* -- up or down? But really the whole grade inflation/deflation thing is overplayed -- this cohort is competing amongst itself for university places, not the students of 10 years ago or 10 years hence.
From the point of competition between students grade inflation really doesn't matter. From the point of view of the level of knowledge the Uni can expect the students to have when they arrive it is very important. There have been numerous reports over the years of Uni's have to do a lot of remedial work in the first year just to get students up to the level that freshers would previously have been expected to possess on day one. That has to affect the quality of the final degree.
Mind you there has been quite of lot of grade inflation from the universities too. Firsts used to be as rare as hen's teeth.
Christine Grace @Chris_Grace Aug 11 @X_Sticks_Real I don't understand this. Are they polling punters as they leave the shops? If those figures were real I'd pop the champagne.
Christine Grace @Chris_Grace Aug 11 @X_Sticks_Real I don't understand this. Are they polling punters as they leave the shops? If those figures were real I'd pop the champagne.
Nothing different from what you see on times / telegraph/ mail / etc every day. Most people do not really understand.
However in general people in Scotland are far more knowledgeable on England than vice versa. I am constantly amazed at the total ignorance re Scotland by lots of supposedly intelligent ( in their eyes at least ) posters on here.
Would it be cruel to ask you to remind me, of what you said when I and others from England backed UKIP to win a seat in Scotland in the Euros.
TSE, not only would it be cruel but would also be unkind and beneath you, no gentleman would ever utter it.
As they say , you have intercourse with one sheep and you are tagged for life.
Christine Grace @Chris_Grace Aug 11 @X_Sticks_Real I don't understand this. Are they polling punters as they leave the shops? If those figures were real I'd pop the champagne.
One confusing thing about betting on politics using the polls, well confusing to me at first anyway, was that in a two horse race, if the split is 60/40 the chances of winning are more 80/20... I had a massive bet on Livingstone winning the mayoralty in 2008 based on both this misreading and lefty blinkers... I simply couldn't accept people would vote for Boris after all the 'piffle and balderdash' posh boy quotes
So anyway, people seeing polls that put Indy at 42% and seeing odds of 7/2 or similar May think its a good bet as it should be 11/8
Christine Grace @Chris_Grace Aug 11 @X_Sticks_Real I don't understand this. Are they polling punters as they leave the shops? If those figures were real I'd pop the champagne.
Nothing different from what you see on times / telegraph/ mail / etc every day. Most people do not really understand.
However in general people in Scotland are far more knowledgeable on England than vice versa. I am constantly amazed at the total ignorance re Scotland by lots of supposedly intelligent ( in their eyes at least ) posters on here.
Would it be cruel to ask you to remind me, of what you said when I and others from England backed UKIP to win a seat in Scotland in the Euros.
TSE, not only would it be cruel but would also be unkind and beneath you, no gentleman would ever utter it.
As they say , you have intercourse with one sheep and you are tagged for life.
A-level grades have edged down this year, as pupils in England, Wales and Northern Ireland receive their results.
There has been a slight fall in A* and A grades and the pass rate is down for the first time in over 30 years.
But there are a record number of university places available and students could still get places even if they miss their grades.
Exam officials say the results of this year's A-levels are broadly "stable". But for the third successive year the A* and A grades have fallen slightly - down from 26.3% to 26%.
There were also marginal falls in the proportion of entries in the A* to B grades. But the very highest A* grade has risen from 7.6% to 8.2%.....
It is not very clear what happened to A* -- up or down? But really the whole grade inflation/deflation thing is overplayed -- this cohort is competing amongst itself for university places, not the students of 10 years ago or 10 years hence.
From the point of competition between students grade inflation really doesn't matter. From the point of view of the level of knowledge the Uni can expect the students to have when they arrive it is very important. There have been numerous reports over the years of Uni's have to do a lot of remedial work in the first year just to get students up to the level that freshers would previously have been expected to possess on day one. That has to affect the quality of the final degree.
Mind you there has been quite of lot of grade inflation from the universities too. Firsts used to be as rare as hen's teeth.
Well, there are an awful lot of four year courses now, MMath, MChem and so on, to make up the difference.
At risk of sounding like a broken record, the untold story of education is a move to the American system -- modules, everyone off to college/university, postgraduate courses for serious study; even trivial things like the year numbering system and "proms". It is surely only a matter of time before we have homecoming queens.
Your colleagues are dead right. The Euro problem remains fundamentally unsorted. The politics is always to extend and pretend. The Euro problem only has 2 possible eventual outcomes: 1. Full political and economic union - the EUSSR; or 2. End the Euro and return to Lira, Franc, DM, etc Both are politically unachievable - so the Eurozone will fester and blunder relentlessly on into a real debt/GDP collapse.
The pretendy part could be extended for quite a while if the ECB went for QE in a big way (over the Bundesbank's dead body). Another shock, like a recession, will contract the timetable dramatically.
Your colleagues are dead right. The Euro problem remains fundamentally unsorted. The politics is always to extend and pretend. The Euro problem only has 2 possible eventual outcomes: 1. Full political and economic union - the EUSSR; or 2. End the Euro and return to Lira, Franc, DM, etc Both are politically unachievable - so the Eurozone will fester and blunder relentlessly on into a real debt/GDP collapse.
The pretendy part could be extended for quite a while if the ECB went for QE in a big way (over the Bundesbank's dead body). Another shock, like a recession, will contract the timetable dramatically.
Yiur first point is a red herring and not likely to happen. Th s econd could but probably won't. What is on offfer is a much closer economic integration of the Eurozone countries - monetary and taxation. How that would be imposed is another mattter. Your word 'EUSSR' with its totalitarian overtones is perjorative whereas you chose not to say something like 'USE' is not (perhaps because it was coined by Churchill). A loose federal USE is I think quite possible. I imagine we would not be part of it. Language is a barrier to closer EU integraion. It would be quite ironic the the one common language it could use would be English and we would not be a part of it.
The point of the exercise at the time was supposed to be to stop Assad using chemical weapons. This seems to be holding, and it was done without resorting to bombing Assad and therefore strengthening his enemies. You can argue about who deserves the credit - if Ed Miliband helped, it seemed to be mostly accidental - but if it sticks it will have been a huge success, even more so now we know what damage some of the people the bombing would have helped can do.
Do you know the difference between the FSA and the Islamists? Do you care?
Sure, we've been over this. Conventionally, if you attack an army that's fighting two different enemies, you help both those enemies. Assad was fighting ISIS as well as the FSA, so bombing Assad's military helps ISIS.
Not really. Strikes could easily have helped the FSA more than the Islamists - people forget quite how fragile Assad's regime was at the time, which was why they used chemical weapons on the outskirts of their own capital.
You are also ignoring bast@rds like al-Nusra (who are actually fighting ISIS at the moment). There are more than three players.
Read up on the FSA. It was set up by army defectors from the Syrian Army, and is broadly secular. They are now being fought by A Nusra, ISIS, the Assad regime and others.
At worst, such strikes would have made no difference tactically and strategically, but would have left a message about the use of chemical weapons. At best, they may have persuaded Assad to step down and accept an offered Russian 'retirement', after which the FSA and Syrian Army could have turned on the Islamists. The middle ground would have been constraining the war within Syria, without it spreading outside.
All of these options are better than what we got.
And the west are now arming the Kurds. It may be our only option, but it is a very dangerous one.
So this post starts with an (unsupported) "could easily", which then turns into an (equally unsupported) "would have made no difference", then culminates in complete fantasy: Assad steps down, the FSA and the Syrian army make friends and everybody turns on ISIS.
One logistical difficulty here is that the bombing needs to be exceedingly precise: The last part only works if Americans manage to hit the prison holding the magical unicorns, leaving them uninjured, but allowing them to escape and spread joy and justice throughout the region.
Christine Grace @Chris_Grace Aug 11 @X_Sticks_Real I don't understand this. Are they polling punters as they leave the shops? If those figures were real I'd pop the champagne.
However in general people in Scotland are far more knowledgeable on England than vice versa.
Anecdote presented as fact.
Personal experience Flash and of course you can read it every day in the newspapers if you wish.
Anecdotes can be useful when used alongside the polling... If I didn't live next door to Thurrock I wouldn't have. Been so confident that ukip would do well there and backed them accordingly... People that just look at the stats and dismiss local knowledge are doing themselves a disservice, and vice versa
One thing is for damned sure - PB on the morning after the Sindy result is going to be fun!
Some humble pie will need to be eaten by the bucketload. I'm very much of the opinion that it will be PlanktonG doing the piemunching. But it just might be all of us 'believe the polls' mob. Either way it'll be a hoot.
Looking at the Yes supporting stuff on the Internet, including James Kelly's blog and so many others, the level of confidence about winning is sky high. Given that I just cannot believe there isn't something that is being missed in the polls. The alternative is a level of self-deception and denial that would surely be unprecedented in British politics. They are absolutely convinced they are going to win. And that leads me to think they could just do it. If they don't I would expect multiple accusations of vote rigging and the like as they come to terms with what would be a defeat they never expected.
I think they're confident of the ground game and late campaign swing.
They probably have cause to be too, but it is starting to look like there's just too much ground to make up.
This much lauded "ground game" has reached all of 9% of voters doorsteps:
Even so, only 9% of voters say that the Yes Scotland campaign has knocked on their door, which perhaps cast some doubt on the extent of that campaign’s much mentioned focus on person to person contact. although the figure still beats the 5% achieved by Better Together
Either SO's fears are confirmed and as well as a political earthquake this will be a disaster for the polling firms - or the separatists have spent so much time talking to themselves and have such low tolerance of differing opinions, they are in for a rude awakening on the 19th.
Meanwhile Comical James continues to entertain.
I know we are in the dangerous territory of subsamples here, but does the poll say what the split of Yes/No is for the 9% and 5% visited?
They are reasonable base sizes (around 400 and 600 respectively)
Split vote total/Yes/No
Yes door knock: 9 / 13 / 7 No door knock: 5 / 4 / 5
Now whether this tells us of the magical propensity of Yes door knockers to convert, or Yes voters to "remember" a door knock I guess we'll never know.....
One thing is for damned sure - PB on the morning after the Sindy result is going to be fun!
Some humble pie will need to be eaten by the bucketload. I'm very much of the opinion that it will be PlanktonG doing the piemunching. But it just might be all of us 'believe the polls' mob. Either way it'll be a hoot.
Does anyone know if counting will be done overnight, or the following day?
I note that many of those fleeing from yonder Iraqi mountain passed through Syria to get to safety in Kurdish territory. I wonder if the Syrian Kurds stamped their passports at the border? ;-)
The alternative is a level of self-deception and denial that would surely be unprecedented in British politics. They are absolutely convinced they are going to win. And that leads me to think they could just do it.
Do you not remember the Lib Dem candidate in a no hope constituency who posted here about how convinced he was that he was about to win on the back of the Cleggasm just before the 2010 GE? There's no fever quite so bad as election-fever and the more inexperienced Yes campaigners seem to have a bad dose. ("There are far more 'yes' posters than 'no' ones so we are bound to win" - that's either delusional or total inexperience.)
"However in general people in Scotland are far more knowledgeable on England than vice versa."
Good morning, Mr G.. I am more than happy to say that I am pretty damn ignorant of things Scottish, and Scottish politics in particular. I am also happy to concede your point that most of my compatriots are in the same situation. Let us be honest Scottish news is not widely reported down here because, also to be honest, the average Englishman does care about it.
Whether the average Scot knows more about England than I know about Scotland, I wouldn't know, obviously because as I have just said I don't know much about the average Scot. From what little I do know, mainly confined to visits to do business with a company in East Kilbride I doubt it.
The alternative is a level of self-deception and denial that would surely be unprecedented in British politics.
The level of self-deception and denial required to believe the SNP manifesto is already unprecedented. It isn't much of a stretch from there to think other people are daft enough to believe it too
Its the same with UKIP and UKIpers. They live min a world of their own and work hard to keep it that way.
Looking at the Yes supporting stuff on the Internet, including James Kelly's blog and so many others, the level of confidence about winning is sky high. Given that I just cannot believe there isn't something that is being missed in the polls. The alternative is a level of self-deception and denial that would surely be unprecedented in British politics. They are absolutely convinced they are going to win. And that leads me to think they could just do it. If they don't I would expect multiple accusations of vote rigging and the like as they come to terms with what would be a defeat they never expected.
I think they're confident of the ground game and late campaign swing.
They probably have cause to be too, but it is starting to look like there's just too much ground to make up.
This much lauded "ground game" has reached all of 9% of voters doorsteps:
Even so, only 9% of voters say that the Yes Scotland campaign has knocked on their door, which perhaps cast some doubt on the extent of that campaign’s much mentioned focus on person to person contact. although the figure still beats the 5% achieved by Better Together
Either SO's fears are confirmed and as well as a political earthquake this will be a disaster for the polling firms - or the separatists have spent so much time talking to themselves and have such low tolerance of differing opinions, they are in for a rude awakening on the 19th.
Meanwhile Comical James continues to entertain.
Given you will be certain to be one of the "anonymous" posters and find it comical. Are you able to debunk any of his numbers.
I most certainly am not. Were I ever to stop laughing long enough to type I would use the same identity as here.
I think James lost the plot a couple of months back - and some of the sincere nationalists have been asking him to report polls objectively (which is what he raised money for) rather than the Comical James routine - today being a classic. There is a roll for "rallying the troops" but when you start blaming the polling companies (which you can't change) rather than the campaign (which you might be able to) you've basically conceded defeat.
"The Spanish economy is being buoyed by increased exports, rising domestic demand and a record year for tourism, says Professor Robert Tornabell of Barcelona's Esade business school.
He warns against reading too much into the data. While large companies are reaping the benefits of this growth, he points out, it hasn't been sufficient to provide jobs for the country's more than 5.6 million unemployed.
The real recovery, he says, will be when the economy begins to create jobs for young people and the 3.5 million Spaniards who have been out of work for more than a year. Until then, economic growth will be no more than empty words, particularly for the more than 740,000 families in which every working-age member is unemployed......
.How growth might begin creating high-quality, stable jobs is another tough question, Tornabell says. "The government hasn't figured out how to tackle youth unemployment." Nearly a quarter of workers are still on temporary contracts – "junk jobs", as he calls them. "It's not healthy. It's not a solution."
Economist Gayle Allard of Madrid's IE business school has little doubt that the Spanish economy has turned a corner. But the lack of deep structural change has left her feeling "optimism mixed with long-term pessimism"....
Spain, she says, will probably do well. "It has gained back a lot of competitiveness, wages have really moderated and it suddenly looks very attractive again for foreign investors." But its economy continues to be vulnerable, because the recovery relies on traditional industries for growth, she says: "It's a typical Spanish recovery: a tourism-based, low-productivity economy that's now picking up. It's the same Spain."
Half the battle had already been waged, she points out, with previous Spanish governments investing heavily in higher education. "But if you don't have an economy that generates jobs for these educated kids, they have little choice but to leave the country."
Spain has turned into a net exporter of people, with just under 550,000 people leaving last year. Some 79,000 of these were Spanish nationals; the rest were departing foreign migrants, according to the National Statistics Institute."
There is much more. Yet evidently that is 'no evidence' ...
Yes three highly reputable sources that also touted WMDs, surely in the league of Seymour Hersh. Has the rise of ISIS directly due to Western support and financing not led to you to even question your beliefs?
One thing is for damned sure - PB on the morning after the Sindy result is going to be fun!
Some humble pie will need to be eaten by the bucketload. I'm very much of the opinion that it will be PlanktonG doing the piemunching. But it just might be all of us 'believe the polls' mob. Either way it'll be a hoot.
Christine Grace @Chris_Grace Aug 11 @X_Sticks_Real I don't understand this. Are they polling punters as they leave the shops? If those figures were real I'd pop the champagne.
Nothing different from what you see on times / telegraph/ mail / etc every day. Most people do not really understand.
However in general people in Scotland are far more knowledgeable on England than vice versa. I am constantly amazed at the total ignorance re Scotland by lots of supposedly intelligent ( in their eyes at least ) posters on here.
Would it be cruel to ask you to remind me, of what you said when I and others from England backed UKIP to win a seat in Scotland in the Euros.
TSE, not only would it be cruel but would also be unkind and beneath you, no gentleman would ever utter it.
As they say , you have intercourse with one sheep and you are tagged for life.
Looking at the Yes supporting stuff on the Internet, including James Kelly's blog and so many others, the level of confidence about winning is sky high. Given that I just cannot believe there isn't something that is being missed in the polls. The alternative is a level of self-deception and denial that would surely be unprecedented in British politics. They are absolutely convinced they are going to win. And that leads me to think they could just do it. If they don't I would expect multiple accusations of vote rigging and the like as they come to terms with what would be a defeat they never expected.
I think they're confident of the ground game and late campaign swing.
They probably have cause to be too, but it is starting to look like there's just too much ground to make up.
This much lauded "ground game" has reached all of 9% of voters doorsteps:
Even so, only 9% of voters say that the Yes Scotland campaign has knocked on their door, which perhaps cast some doubt on the extent of that campaign’s much mentioned focus on person to person contact. although the figure still beats the 5% achieved by Better Together
Either SO's fears are confirmed and as well as a political earthquake this will be a disaster for the polling firms - or the separatists have spent so much time talking to themselves and have such low tolerance of differing opinions, they are in for a rude awakening on the 19th.
Meanwhile Comical James continues to entertain.
Given you will be certain to be one of the "anonymous" posters and find it comical. Are you able to debunk any of his numbers.
I most certainly am not. Were I ever to stop laughing long enough to type I would use the same identity as here.
I think James lost the plot a couple of months back - and some of the sincere nationalists have been asking him to report polls objectively (which is what he raised money for) rather than the Comical James routine - today being a classic. There is a roll for "rallying the troops" but when you start blaming the polling companies (which you can't change) rather than the campaign (which you might be able to) you've basically conceded defeat.
Christine Grace @Chris_Grace Aug 11 @X_Sticks_Real I don't understand this. Are they polling punters as they leave the shops? If those figures were real I'd pop the champagne.
Nothing different from what you see on times / telegraph/ mail / etc every day. Most people do not really understand. However in general people in Scotland are far more knowledgeable on England than vice versa. I am constantly amazed at the total ignorance re Scotland by lots of supposedly intelligent ( in their eyes at least ) posters on here.
Having lived in both countries I think the ignorance is pretty evenly balanced ( as a child I wondered at neighbours who went all the way to Whitley Bay for their summer holidays - which being down South must be pretty close to the equator. Then again, the number of English folk who think Inverness must be only an hour or two from Carlisle......
A couple of guys at work today think another Euro crisis is now inevitable, France and Italy have to roll over €500bn worth of debt over the next year and if no growth can be found in either they think that the debt markets will pull support and squirrel money into safe havens. No one believes that the ECB will step up, they have flunked it too many times now.
No sign of that in the bond markets as yet. Latest yields on 10-year government bonds:
Germany 1.01% France 1.41% Italy 2.71 Spain 2.57% UK 2.42% US 2.42%
Even Portugal can borrow relatively cheaply (3.68%), and Greece at 6.25% is a lot better than it has been.
Of course, things can change, but at the moment there is no sign of bondholders losing confidence in France, Italy and Spain.
Of course that doesn't mean that the Eurozone economies aren't in a pretty dire state (making the UK look even better by comparison). It's looking more like the long Japanese stagnation, with low government bold yields a symptom of low growth and zero inflation or even deflation. Meanwhile unemployment remains unacceptably high across much of the EU. It's a toxic combination.
One thing is for damned sure - PB on the morning after the Sindy result is going to be fun!
Some humble pie will need to be eaten by the bucketload. I'm very much of the opinion that it will be PlanktonG doing the piemunching. But it just might be all of us 'believe the polls' mob. Either way it'll be a hoot.
Christine Grace @Chris_Grace Aug 11 @X_Sticks_Real I don't understand this. Are they polling punters as they leave the shops? If those figures were real I'd pop the champagne.
Nothing different from what you see on times / telegraph/ mail / etc every day. Most people do not really understand. However in general people in Scotland are far more knowledgeable on England than vice versa. I am constantly amazed at the total ignorance re Scotland by lots of supposedly intelligent ( in their eyes at least ) posters on here.
Having lived in both countries I think the ignorance is pretty evenly balanced ( as a child I wondered at neighbours who went all the way to Whitley Bay for their summer holidays - which being down South must be pretty close to the equator. Then again, the number of English folk who think Inverness must be only an hour or two from Carlisle......
Yes but in those days it was by horse and cart and so seemed a long way and sounded very exotic. I remember when young going to Straiton on church outings and it seemed the other side of the world but is just past Ayr. Always great going on the "Electric Brae", still enjoy that today as well.
One thing is for damned sure - PB on the morning after the Sindy result is going to be fun!
Some humble pie will need to be eaten by the bucketload. I'm very much of the opinion that it will be PlanktonG doing the piemunching. But it just might be all of us 'believe the polls' mob. Either way it'll be a hoot.
When is the count ? Overnight ?
Think result will be known early hours.
Good - I hate those 9am next day start counts - or even worse wait until Sunday.
The alternative is a level of self-deception and denial that would surely be unprecedented in British politics.
The level of self-deception and denial required to believe the SNP manifesto is already unprecedented. It isn't much of a stretch from there to think other people are daft enough to believe it too
Its the same with UKIP and UKIpers. They live min a world of their own and work hard to keep it that way.
Who predicts an EU vote will be won by out? I don't see many kippers on here saying that, just that they want that result.
I personally have bet with many posters on here that ukip will do reasonably well, not spectacularly, next year, and the odds have moved my way in each case, as they have in each constituency I backed them in.
Also ukip just finished first in a national election that they were odds against to do a month previously, so where's the delusion?
There is much more. Yet evidently that is 'no evidence' ...
Yes three highly reputable sources that also touted WMDs, surely in the league of Seymour Hersh. Has the rise of ISIS directly due to Western support and financing not led to you to even question your beliefs?
One thing is for damned sure - PB on the morning after the Sindy result is going to be fun!
Some humble pie will need to be eaten by the bucketload. I'm very much of the opinion that it will be PlanktonG doing the piemunching. But it just might be all of us 'believe the polls' mob. Either way it'll be a hoot.
When is the count ? Overnight ?
Think result will be known early hours.
Good - I hate those 9am next day start counts - or even worse wait until Sunday.
I fly out Friday morning on holiday ( assuming I still have a valid passport ) so be glad also.
One thing is for damned sure - PB on the morning after the Sindy result is going to be fun!
Some humble pie will need to be eaten by the bucketload. I'm very much of the opinion that it will be PlanktonG doing the piemunching. But it just might be all of us 'believe the polls' mob. Either way it'll be a hoot.
When is the count ? Overnight ?
Think result will be known early hours.
Good - I hate those 9am next day start counts - or even worse wait until Sunday.
The alternative is a level of self-deception and denial that would surely be unprecedented in British politics.
The level of self-deception and denial required to believe the SNP manifesto is already unprecedented. It isn't much of a stretch from there to think other people are daft enough to believe it too
Its the same with UKIP and UKIpers. They live min a world of their own and work hard to keep it that way.
Who predicts an EU vote will be won by out? I don't see many kippers on here saying that, just that they want that result.
I personally have bet with many posters on here that ukip will do reasonably well, not spectacularly, next year, and the odds have moved my way in each case, as they have in each constituency I backed them in.
Also ukip just finished first in a national election that they were odds against to do a month previously, so where's the delusion?
You must just love people like Flightpath on PB, isam.
One thing is for damned sure - PB on the morning after the Sindy result is going to be fun!
Some humble pie will need to be eaten by the bucketload. I'm very much of the opinion that it will be PlanktonG doing the piemunching. But it just might be all of us 'believe the polls' mob. Either way it'll be a hoot.
When is the count ? Overnight ?
Think result will be known early hours.
Good - I hate those 9am next day start counts - or even worse wait until Sunday.
I fly out Friday morning on holiday ( assuming I still have a valid passport ) so be glad also.
You shirking your impending piemunching duties Malc? I do hope you can pen at least one little 'I was utterly wrong and apologise unreservedly for all the abuse' post from the departure lounge.
The result of 2014's independence referendum is unlikely to be declared in the early hours of the morning, according to a report.
While ballots in the historic vote will be counted overnight, a paper from Chief Counting Officer (designate) Mary Pitcaithly said this does not necessarily mean the result will be announced overnight.
"Getting the result right is more important than getting it quickly," it says.
Nevertheless although UK yields are a bit higher than the recent past it remains that current yields are historically very low. I believe (although I may be totally wrong) that yields reflect expectations of inflation and ours has been a bit higher than other places in the recent past, but look to be still subdued.
The result of 2014's independence referendum is unlikely to be declared in the early hours of the morning, according to a report.
While ballots in the historic vote will be counted overnight, a paper from Chief Counting Officer (designate) Mary Pitcaithly said this does not necessarily mean the result will be announced overnight.
"Getting the result right is more important than getting it quickly," it says.
The result of 2014's independence referendum is unlikely to be declared in the early hours of the morning, according to a report.
While ballots in the historic vote will be counted overnight, a paper from Chief Counting Officer (designate) Mary Pitcaithly said this does not necessarily mean the result will be announced overnight.
"Getting the result right is more important than getting it quickly," it says.
There is much more. Yet evidently that is 'no evidence' ...
Yes three highly reputable sources that also touted WMDs, surely in the league of Seymour Hersh. Has the rise of ISIS directly due to Western support and financing not led to you to even question your beliefs?
Clueless and dangerous.
I can only repeat I think Mr Jessop talks sense. It is you who are shooting the messenger. The west was not intending to support the likes of ISIS. Lack of any support for other groups has given ISIS free rein.
macolmg - It doesn't surprise me that Yes would get good canvass returns. It seems as if being a Yes supporter is a pretty safe thing to be, whereas the No supporters are worried about being abused etc. I suggest maybe something similar to 1992. Could there not be quite a lot of shy No supporters?
One thing is for damned sure - PB on the morning after the Sindy result is going to be fun!
Some humble pie will need to be eaten by the bucketload. I'm very much of the opinion that it will be PlanktonG doing the piemunching. But it just might be all of us 'believe the polls' mob. Either way it'll be a hoot.
There is much more. Yet evidently that is 'no evidence' ...
Yes three highly reputable sources that also touted WMDs, surely in the league of Seymour Hersh. Has the rise of ISIS directly due to Western support and financing not led to you to even question your beliefs?
Clueless and dangerous.
Human Rights Watch touted WMD's? Really?
I was referring to the NY Times and Telegraph, is it beyond your intelligence to understand that?
The point of the exercise at the time was supposed to be to stop Assad using chemical weapons. This seems to be holding, and it was done without resorting to bombing Assad and therefore strengthening his enemies. You can argue about who deserves the credit - if Ed Miliband helped, it seemed to be mostly accidental - but if it sticks it will have been a huge success, even more so now we know what damage some of the people the bombing would have helped can do.
Do you know the difference between the FSA and the Islamists? Do you care?
Sure, we've been over this. Conventionally, if you attack an army that's fighting two different enemies, you help both those enemies. Assad was fighting ISIS as well as the FSA, so bombing Assad's military helps ISIS.
Not really. Strikes could easily have helped the FSA more than the Islamists - people forget quite how fragile Assad's regime was at the time, which was why they used chemical weapons on the outskirts of their own capital.
You are also ignoring bast@rds like al-Nusra (who are actually fighting ISIS at the moment). There are more than three players.
Read up on the FSA. It was set up by army defectors from the Syrian Army, and is broadly secular. They are now being fought by A Nusra, ISIS, the Assad regime and others.
At worst, such strikes would have made no difference tactically and strategically, but would have left a message about the use of chemical weapons. At best, they may have persuaded Assad to step down and accept an offered Russian 'retirement', after which the FSA and Syrian Army could have turned on the Islamists. The middle ground would have been constraining the war within Syria, without it spreading outside.
All of these options are better than what we got.
And the west are now arming the Kurds. It may be our only option, but it is a very dangerous one.
So this post starts with an (unsupported) "could easily", which then turns into an (equally unsupported) "would have made no difference", then culminates in complete fantasy: Assad steps down, the FSA and the Syrian army make friends and everybody turns on ISIS.
One logistical difficulty here is that the bombing needs to be exceedingly precise: The last part only works if Americans manage to hit the prison holding the magical unicorns, leaving them uninjured, but allowing them to escape and spread joy and justice throughout the region.
It would be funny if such ignorance wasn't used to support positions whose costs are unbearable and outcomes catastrophic.
Simply admitting I don't know is obviously not acceptable for some.
No sign of that in the bond markets as yet. Latest yields on 10-year government bonds:
Germany 1.01% France 1.41% Italy 2.71 Spain 2.57% UK 2.42% US 2.42%
Even Portugal can borrow relatively cheaply (3.68%), and Greece at 6.25% is a lot better than it has been.
Of course, things can change, but at the moment there is no sign of bondholders losing confidence in France, Italy and Spain. ..snip...
Yes, the difference being that in Japan debt has been monetised and is largely domestically owned allowing for a self-funded nightmare.
If the French and Italian economies don't get moving any time soon then the wagons will start circling again. The fundamentals in these two countries have not changed since 2009. If anything they have worsened with higher taxes on production and wealth and more red tape for businesses.
I don't think either country will default or even contemplate doing so, but the debt deflation trap is going to hit them both extremely hard. In Japan the carry trade and monetisation of government debt mitigated a lot of the normal debt deflation symptoms, Italy and France will have neither because Germany will always have lower priced debt and the debt markets will always function better in Germany. Why would any sane person or business issue paper on the French debt markets when German markets are much less volatile...
Really though it could go either way. The slow death with stagnation and deflation, or if Italy and France continue to contract then I think another crisis could erupt and a selective bailout without any conditions applied may be the order of the day. How that would play with the rest of Europe though, I couldn't say. I don't think the Greeks and Spanish would be too happy, but given the alternative of an Italian default and EMU exit I'm not sure if there are any alternatives. It's one thing to push around Greece, Spain, Ireland and Portugal who's people seem to be on board for the EU project, it's another entirely to do that to Italy and especially France where the people are more sceptical and there are extremist parties hoovering up discontented voters.
If it were me I would force Germany out of the EMU and settle the internal debts that the rest of the EMU have built up by a combination of inflation and devaluation. Germany must be made to feel the full force of their policies wrt to currency strength and inflation. The rest of the continent shouldn't pay for sins of German doctrine. Let Germany go back to the DM and let them deal with an appreciating currency and deflation that brings by either monetary or fiscal stimulus. While they are in the EMU Germany has absolutely no need for either because the Euro is undervalued for them.
No sign of that in the bond markets as yet. Latest yields on 10-year government bonds:
Germany 1.01% France 1.41% Italy 2.71 Spain 2.57% UK 2.42% US 2.42%
Even Portugal can borrow relatively cheaply (3.68%), and Greece at 6.25% is a lot better than it has been.
Of course, things can change, but at the moment there is no sign of bondholders losing confidence in France, Italy and Spain. ..snip...
Yes, the difference being that in Japan debt has been monetised and is largely domestically owned allowing for a self-funded nightmare.
If the French and Italian economies don't get moving any time soon then the wagons will start circling again. The fundamentals in these two countries have not changed since 2009. If anything they have worsened with higher taxes on production and wealth and more red tape for businesses.
I don't think either country will default or even contemplate doing so, but the debt deflation trap is going to hit them both extremely hard. In Japan the carry trade and monetisation of government debt mitigated a lot of the normal debt deflation symptoms, Italy and France will have neither because Germany will always have lower priced debt and the debt markets will always function better in Germany. Why would any sane person or business issue paper on the French debt markets when German markets are much less volatile...
Really though it could go either way. The slow death with stagnation and deflation, or if Italy and France continue to contract then I think another crisis could erupt and a selective bailout without any conditions applied may be the order of the day. How that would play with the rest of Europe though, I couldn't say. I don't think the Greeks and Spanish would be too happy, but given the alternative of an Italian default and EMU exit I'm not sure if there are any alternatives. It's one thing to push around Greece, Spain, Ireland and Portugal who's people seem to be on board for the EU project, it's another entirely to do that to Italy and especially France where the people are more sceptical and there are extremist parties hoovering up discontented voters.
If it were me I would force Germany out of the EMU and settle the internal debts that the rest of the EMU have built up by a combination of inflation and devaluation. Germany must be made to feel the full force of their policies wrt to currency strength and inflation. The rest of the continent shouldn't pay for sins of German doctrine. Let Germany go back to the DM and let them deal with an appreciating currency and deflation that brings by either monetary or fiscal stimulus. While they are in the EMU Germany has absolutely no need for either because the Euro is undervalued for them.
Surely a better Plan B would be Sterlingisation. Oh hang on.....
Not really. Strikes could easily have helped the FSA more than the Islamists - people forget quite how fragile Assad's regime was at the time, which was why they used chemical weapons on the outskirts of their own capital.
You are also ignoring bast@rds like al-Nusra (who are actually fighting ISIS at the moment). There are more than three players.
Read up on the FSA. It was set up by army defectors from the Syrian Army, and is broadly secular. They are now being fought by A Nusra, ISIS, the Assad regime and others.
At worst, such strikes would have made no difference tactically and strategically, but would have left a message about the use of chemical weapons. At best, they may have persuaded Assad to step down and accept an offered Russian 'retirement', after which the FSA and Syrian Army could have turned on the Islamists. The middle ground would have been constraining the war within Syria, without it spreading outside.
All of these options are better than what we got.
And the west are now arming the Kurds. It may be our only option, but it is a very dangerous one.
So this post starts with an (unsupported) "could easily", which then turns into an (equally unsupported) "would have made no difference", then culminates in complete fantasy: Assad steps down, the FSA and the Syrian army make friends and everybody turns on ISIS.
One logistical difficulty here is that the bombing needs to be exceedingly precise: The last part only works if Americans manage to hit the prison holding the magical unicorns, leaving them uninjured, but allowing them to escape and spread joy and justice throughout the region.
Of course they are unsupported: we're having to divine what may have happened if Miliband had actually had a spine. We can only say with certainty *what* happened.
But I still argue that the situation could not be worse than it is now. Something you, with your pathetic satire, seems to ignore. I never said it would be neat, or good: just that it would be better.
To make matters worse, Assad is still using chemical weapons. That is just part of what Miliband wrought. Their blood is on his hands.
One thing is for damned sure - PB on the morning after the Sindy result is going to be fun!
Some humble pie will need to be eaten by the bucketload. I'm very much of the opinion that it will be PlanktonG doing the piemunching. But it just might be all of us 'believe the polls' mob. Either way it'll be a hoot.
When is the count ? Overnight ?
Think result will be known early hours.
Good - I hate those 9am next day start counts - or even worse wait until Sunday.
I fly out Friday morning on holiday ( assuming I still have a valid passport ) so be glad also.
You shirking your impending piemunching duties Malc? I do hope you can pen at least one little 'I was utterly wrong and apologise unreservedly for all the abuse' post from the departure lounge.
Patrick , I will try to get a gloat in before leaving. As I only use old phone , refuse to have e-mail access etc I will not be able to do from airport. Holiday will be e-mail and spreadsheet free as well.
Yes, the difference being that in Japan debt has been monetised and is largely domestically owned allowing for a self-funded nightmare.
If the French and Italian economies don't get moving any time soon then the wagons will start circling again. The fundamentals in these two countries have not changed since 2009. If anything they have worsened with higher taxes on production and wealth and more red tape for businesses.
I don't think either country will default or even contemplate doing so, but the debt deflation trap is going to hit them both extremely hard. In Japan the carry trade and monetisation of government debt mitigated a lot of the normal debt deflation symptoms, Italy and France will have neither because Germany will always have lower priced debt and the debt markets will always function better in Germany. Why would any sane person or business issue paper on the French debt markets when German markets are much less volatile...
Really though it could go either way. The slow death with stagnation and deflation, or if Italy and France continue to contract then I think another crisis could erupt and a selective bailout without any conditions applied may be the order of the day. How that would play with the rest of Europe though, I couldn't say. I don't think the Greeks and Spanish would be too happy, but given the alternative of an Italian default and EMU exit I'm not sure if there are any alternatives. It's one thing to push around Greece, Spain, Ireland and Portugal who's people seem to be on board for the EU project, it's another entirely to do that to Italy and especially France where the people are more sceptical and there are extremist parties hoovering up discontented voters.
If it were me I would force Germany out of the EMU and settle the internal debts that the rest of the EMU have built up by a combination of inflation and devaluation. Germany must be made to feel the full force of their policies wrt to currency strength and inflation. The rest of the continent shouldn't pay for sins of German doctrine. Let Germany go back to the DM and let them deal with an appreciating currency and deflation that brings by either monetary or fiscal stimulus. While they are in the EMU Germany has absolutely no need for either because the Euro is undervalued for them.
Traditionally people have said the issue here is that Germany needs different interest rates to the rest of the EU, but the German economy doesn't exactly seem at risk of hyper-inflation either. So isn't the obvious solution just for the ECB to print shedloads of money?
I'm not saying I know how to get them do that, but if you don't have a way to get them to do that you probably also don't have the ability to restructure the Eurozone.
Yes, the difference being that in Japan debt has been monetised and is largely domestically owned allowing for a self-funded nightmare.
If the French and Italian economies don't get moving any time soon then the wagons will start circling again. The fundamentals in these two countries have not changed since 2009. If anything they have worsened with higher taxes on production and wealth and more red tape for businesses.
I don't think either country will default or even contemplate doing so, but the debt deflation trap is going to hit them both extremely hard. In Japan the carry trade and monetisation of government debt mitigated a lot of the normal debt deflation symptoms, Italy and France will have neither because Germany will always have lower priced debt and the debt markets will always function better in Germany. Why would any sane person or business issue paper on the French debt markets when German markets are much less volatile...
Really though it could go either way. The slow death with stagnation and deflation, or if Italy and France continue to contract then I think another crisis could erupt and a selective bailout without any conditions applied may be the order of the day. How that would play with the rest of Europe though, I couldn't say. I don't think the Greeks and Spanish would be too happy, but given the alternative of an Italian default and EMU exit I'm not sure if there are any alternatives. It's one thing to push around Greece, Spain, Ireland and Portugal who's people seem to be on board for the EU project, it's another entirely to do that to Italy and especially France where the people are more sceptical and there are extremist parties hoovering up discontented voters.
If it were me I would force Germany out of the EMU and settle the internal debts that the rest of the EMU have built up by a combination of inflation and devaluation. Germany must be made to feel the full force of their policies wrt to currency strength and inflation. The rest of the continent shouldn't pay for sins of German doctrine. Let Germany go back to the DM and let them deal with an appreciating currency and deflation that brings by either monetary or fiscal stimulus. While they are in the EMU Germany has absolutely no need for either because the Euro is undervalued for them.
Traditionally people have said the issue here is that Germany needs different interest rates to the rest of the EU, but the German economy doesn't exactly seem at risk of hyper-inflation either. So isn't the obvious solution just for the ECB to print shedloads of money?
I'm not saying I know how to get them do that, but if you don't have a way to get them to do that you probably also don't have the ability to restructure the Eurozone.
The Germans have a reflexive horror at printing money. 1923 Weimar inflation and all that.
TSE talking about sheep reminded me of something: latest odds from Paddy Power for Sheffield Hallam
Lib Dem 1/6 Labour 7/2
Odds have not shifted of late in spite of the absence of any Lib Dem polling recovery.
You mean Clegg is STILL odds on favourite to retain his seat?
I'm shocked, shocked by that.
On the other hand, has there been a party leader who has lost their seat? I can't think of one. Not in modern times anyway.
Sinclair in 1945 was, I think, the last for a major mainland party. Otherwise the DUP leader last time. Both Communists were defeated in 1950, but I don’t think either of them were regarded as “leader”!
The point of the exercise at the time was supposed to be to stop Assad using chemical weapons. This seems to be holding, and it was done without resorting to bombing Assad and therefore strengthening his enemies. You can argue about who deserves the credit - if Ed Miliband helped, it seemed to be mostly accidental - but if it sticks it will have been a huge success, even more so now we know what damage some of the people the bombing would have helped can do.
Do you know the difference between the FSA and the Islamists? Do you care?
Sure, we've been over this. Conventionally, if you attack an army that's fighting two different enemies, you help both those enemies. Assad was fighting ISIS as well as the FSA, so bombing Assad's military helps ISIS.
Oh, I don't know about that. It seems that both ISIS and Assad saw the FSA as their most important enemy, so the only people fighting two different enemies were the FSA.
I agree with your point on the chemical weapons, though.
You don't think ISIS were/are fighting Assad???
It has recently begun to sound a bit like a FPTP election to me - ISIS want to be able to claim that only they can defeat Assad, while Assad wants to claim that only he can defeat ISIS. Thus both have an interest in doing down the FSA.
macolmg - It doesn't surprise me that Yes would get good canvass returns. It seems as if being a Yes supporter is a pretty safe thing to be, whereas the No supporters are worried about being abused etc. I suggest maybe something similar to 1992. Could there not be quite a lot of shy No supporters?
Frank, No idea but hope not. Given the doom mongering every day you would not expect so , if they are in lead as supposed to be you would think you would hear a lot more. If you look at Murphy's 100 day tour , in the video's on You tube you see him ranting and raving to himself most of the time, the tumbleweed is everywhere. Lots of pictures of packed meetings organised by YES but dearth of NO meetings and when you see stalls NO is always abandoned. So on the face of it if they are there they are very very very shy.
If the polls dont change after the second debate the SNP is going to go bonkers I predict.
As for the eurocrisis, Japan has been in recession almost continuously since 1993, their debt is the greatest in the world and they pay nothing on interest because the bank of japan and the japanese pension funds always buy the debt, same in the eurozone but with extra FED money.
However I think we are witnessing a very modern civilizational collapse, in past history great countries collapse after war or after a series of failed crops or after a long period of political decay or a combination of all the previous ones.
Look at Japan, its going down for more than 20 years, no "reform" has stopped the decline, no new parties or politicians take over, Japan is still a one party system, people may moan but they are not willing to do anything about it and their population is suffering and declining in numbers, but crucially no change just "stay the course". Same with europe and most in the west I believe, there is no appetite to change course just to stoically persevere until the inevitable end.
Just look at the rest of the world, with a little bit of inflation or unemployment and they do a revolution, here nothing happens.
However there is still hope, europe is a collection of 28 countries, statistically even if there is a 5% change of an anti-european party to be elected at some time in each of these countries chances are that one of them will. And once one country leaves the rest will follow.
TSE talking about sheep reminded me of something: latest odds from Paddy Power for Sheffield Hallam
Lib Dem 1/6 Labour 7/2
Odds have not shifted of late in spite of the absence of any Lib Dem polling recovery.
You mean Clegg is STILL odds on favourite to retain his seat?
I'm shocked, shocked by that.
It can only be because those who talk up Labour's chances of beating him refuse to back up those opinions with actual cash for some reason!
I don't know anyone who talks up Labour's chances other than me and as I have said on here before, I am not a betting person. I actually think 7/2 on Labour is decent odds. 5/2 might be more sensible.
Lots of pictures of packed meetings organised by YES but dearth of NO meetings and when you see stalls NO is always abandoned. So on the face of it if they are there they are very very very shy.
One thing is for damned sure - PB on the morning after the Sindy result is going to be fun!
Some humble pie will need to be eaten by the bucketload. I'm very much of the opinion that it will be PlanktonG doing the piemunching. But it just might be all of us 'believe the polls' mob. Either way it'll be a hoot.
When is the count ? Overnight ?
Think result will be known early hours.
Good - I hate those 9am next day start counts - or even worse wait until Sunday.
I fly out Friday morning on holiday ( assuming I still have a valid passport ) so be glad also.
You shirking your impending piemunching duties Malc? I do hope you can pen at least one little 'I was utterly wrong and apologise unreservedly for all the abuse' post from the departure lounge.
Patrick , I will try to get a gloat in before leaving. As I only use old phone , refuse to have e-mail access etc I will not be able to do from airport. Holiday will be e-mail and spreadsheet free as well.
Oh, I’m sure that in the considerably unlikely event of a Yes vote you’ll find a means of gloating.
Not really. Strikes could easily have helped the FSA more than the Islamists - people forget quite how fragile Assad's regime was at the time, which was why they used chemical weapons on the outskirts of their own capital.
You are also ignoring bast@rds like al-Nusra (who are actually fighting ISIS at the moment). There are more than three players.
Read up on the FSA. It was set up by army defectors from the Syrian Army, and is broadly secular. They are now being fought by A Nusra, ISIS, the Assad regime and others.
At worst, such strikes would have made no difference tactically and strategically, but would have left a message about the use of chemical weapons. At best, they may have persuaded Assad to step down and accept an offered Russian 'retirement', after which the FSA and Syrian Army could have turned on the Islamists. The middle ground would have been constraining the war within Syria, without it spreading outside.
All of these options are better than what we got.
And the west are now arming the Kurds. It may be our only option, but it is a very dangerous one.
So this post starts with an (unsupported) "could easily", which then turns into an (equally unsupported) "would have made no difference", then culminates in complete fantasy: Assad steps down, the FSA and the Syrian army make friends and everybody turns on ISIS.
One logistical difficulty here is that the bombing needs to be exceedingly precise: The last part only works if Americans manage to hit the prison holding the magical unicorns, leaving them uninjured, but allowing them to escape and spread joy and justice throughout the region.
Of course they are unsupported: we're having to divine what may have happened if Miliband had actually had a spine. We can only say with certainty *what* happened.
But I still argue that the situation could not be worse than it is now. Something you, with your pathetic satire, seems to ignore. I never said it would be neat, or good: just that it would be better.
To make matters worse, Assad is still using chemical weapons. That is just part of what Miliband wrought. Their blood is on his hands.
Assad's actual Syrian army is using home-made barrel bombs filled with chlorine? It seems unlikely.
But to get back to the vote, what would have happened if Cameron had supported the Labour motion requiring evidence of chemical weapons use? Then Cameron's motion passes and ... nothing happens because the Americans and Europeans are against it.
One thing is for damned sure - PB on the morning after the Sindy result is going to be fun!
Some humble pie will need to be eaten by the bucketload. I'm very much of the opinion that it will be PlanktonG doing the piemunching. But it just might be all of us 'believe the polls' mob. Either way it'll be a hoot.
When is the count ? Overnight ?
Think result will be known early hours.
Good - I hate those 9am next day start counts - or even worse wait until Sunday.
I fly out Friday morning on holiday ( assuming I still have a valid passport ) so be glad also.
You shirking your impending piemunching duties Malc? I do hope you can pen at least one little 'I was utterly wrong and apologise unreservedly for all the abuse' post from the departure lounge.
Patrick , I will try to get a gloat in before leaving. As I only use old phone , refuse to have e-mail access etc I will not be able to do from airport. Holiday will be e-mail and spreadsheet free as well.
Sounds good Malc! I'll lead the turnip mea culpa drive if it's a YES.
Lots of pictures of packed meetings organised by YES but dearth of NO meetings and when you see stalls NO is always abandoned. So on the face of it if they are there they are very very very shy.
Or they have better things to do with their time?
Many will have but you would expect it to be more even at least. It does all seem very strange as polls and media all have NO as miles ahead but in Scotland on the ground it does not appear that way. Relatives of mine who are NO / DK will be very unlikely to bother to vote, whereas the ones for YES are certain to vote. Worst case it will be an awful lot closer than BT and media would have you believe, it does not feel like NO are ahead. May be wishful thinking I suppose.
Traditionally people have said the issue here is that Germany needs different interest rates to the rest of the EU, but the German economy doesn't exactly seem at risk of hyper-inflation either. So isn't the obvious solution just for the ECB to print shedloads of money?
I'm not saying I know how to get them do that, but if you don't have a way to get them to do that you probably also don't have the ability to restructure the Eurozone.
That is of course the solution, but the ECB is not going to do it. German monetary doctrine rules in the EMU and the German constitutional court has already ruled against EMU debt monetisation by the ECB and against Eurobonds.
Quantitative easing in Europe is off the table, so other solutions need to be looked at. The solution that is the least painful is a German EMU exit which would allow for the Euro to weaken and the DM to strengthen balancing out German over-austerity between 1995-2005 on wages and spending.
Of course then the German economic miracle would be derailed, but it would unleash market forces on an economy that has had it very easy for the last few years with an undervalued currency.
I would like to see Lord Ashcroft do constituency polls on each of the major party leaders seats (Sheffield Hallam [he did do one way back in 2010], Witney, Doncaster North, South Thanet).
Comments
Paula Honey Rose @PaulaHoneyRose Aug 11
@X_Sticks_Real Ooh! Does that suggest what I think it does?
Christine Grace @Chris_Grace Aug 11
@X_Sticks_Real I don't understand this. Are they polling punters as they leave the shops? If those figures were real I'd pop the champagne.
TheRanter2012 @TheRanter2012 Aug 12
@X_Sticks_Real It's probably the most accurate poll to date.
aibagawa @Aibagawa Aug 12
@X_Sticks_Real @Rossmatthews86 No idea about gambling but I'm assuming most gamblers bet on a sure thing?
The conspiracy nut in me is still convinced that Brown and Bush let Lehman Bros go under solely to be able to run such a campaign.
http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/blog/michael-j-totten/hamas-threatened-reporters-gaza
However in general people in Scotland are far more knowledgeable on England than vice versa. I am constantly amazed at the total ignorance re Scotland by lots of supposedly intelligent ( in their eyes at least ) posters on here.
In the 1936 Presidential Election, a Literary digest poll of its readers, some 2 million people replied, and the polling showed that Alf Landon was going to defeat FDR quite comfortably.
A Gallup poll of a much smaller sample size, of around 50k, said the FDR was going to win.
Gallup got the election spot on.
If canvass returns were accurate, Ron Paul would be US President right now.
You are also ignoring bast@rds like al-Nusra (who are actually fighting ISIS at the moment). There are more than three players.
Read up on the FSA. It was set up by army defectors from the Syrian Army, and is broadly secular. They are now being fought by A Nusra, ISIS, the Assad regime and others.
At worst, such strikes would have made no difference tactically and strategically, but would have left a message about the use of chemical weapons. At best, they may have persuaded Assad to step down and accept an offered Russian 'retirement', after which the FSA and Syrian Army could have turned on the Islamists. The middle ground would have been constraining the war within Syria, without it spreading outside.
All of these options are better than what we got.
And the west are now arming the Kurds. It may be our only option, but it is a very dangerous one.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_Syrian_Army
Mind you there has been quite of lot of grade inflation from the universities too. Firsts used to be as rare as hen's teeth.
As they say , you have intercourse with one sheep and you are tagged for life.
http://antiwar.com/blog/2014/04/07/sy-hersh-on-democracy-now-discussing-turkish-role-in-syria-chemical-weapons-incident/
There is plenty of evidence of ISIS having been given a new lease of life by Western aid.
http://benswann.com/blowback-u-s-proxy-wars-led-to-the-rise-of-isis/
Our only option is to leave alone and allow these people to settle their own problems. Intervening again would be another disaster in the making.
So anyway, people seeing polls that put Indy at 42% and seeing odds of 7/2 or similar May think its a good bet as it should be 11/8
At risk of sounding like a broken record, the untold story of education is a move to the American system -- modules, everyone off to college/university, postgraduate courses for serious study; even trivial things like the year numbering system and "proms". It is surely only a matter of time before we have homecoming queens.
What is on offfer is a much closer economic integration of the Eurozone countries - monetary and taxation. How that would be imposed is another mattter. Your word 'EUSSR' with its totalitarian overtones is perjorative whereas you chose not to say something like 'USE' is not (perhaps because it was coined by Churchill). A loose federal USE is I think quite possible. I imagine we would not be part of it. Language is a barrier to closer EU integraion. It would be quite ironic the the one common language it could use would be English and we would not be a part of it.
One logistical difficulty here is that the bombing needs to be exceedingly precise: The last part only works if Americans manage to hit the prison holding the magical unicorns, leaving them uninjured, but allowing them to escape and spread joy and justice throughout the region.
Some humble pie will need to be eaten by the bucketload. I'm very much of the opinion that it will be PlanktonG doing the piemunching. But it just might be all of us 'believe the polls' mob. Either way it'll be a hoot.
Split vote total/Yes/No
Yes door knock: 9 / 13 / 7
No door knock: 5 / 4 / 5
Now whether this tells us of the magical propensity of Yes door knockers to convert, or Yes voters to "remember" a door knock I guess we'll never know.....
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/n9xblv6gc0/Sun_Results_Scottish_Independence_140807.pdf
A link referring to chemical attacks this year, well after last years'a vote:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/10796175/Syria-chemical-weapons-the-proof-that-Assad-regime-launching-chlorine-attacks-on-children.html
And from Human Rights Watch:
http://www.hrw.org/news/2014/05/13/syria-strong-evidence-government-used-chemicals-weapon
About the 2013 attacks:
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/17/world/europe/syria-united-nations.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0
There is much more. Yet evidently that is 'no evidence' ...
"However in general people in Scotland are far more knowledgeable on England than vice versa."
Good morning, Mr G.. I am more than happy to say that I am pretty damn ignorant of things Scottish, and Scottish politics in particular. I am also happy to concede your point that most of my compatriots are in the same situation. Let us be honest Scottish news is not widely reported down here because, also to be honest, the average Englishman does care about it.
Whether the average Scot knows more about England than I know about Scotland, I wouldn't know, obviously because as I have just said I don't know much about the average Scot. From what little I do know, mainly confined to visits to do business with a company in East Kilbride I doubt it.
Its the same with UKIP and UKIpers. They live min a world of their own and work hard to keep it that way.
I think James lost the plot a couple of months back - and some of the sincere nationalists have been asking him to report polls objectively (which is what he raised money for) rather than the Comical James routine - today being a classic. There is a roll for "rallying the troops" but when you start blaming the polling companies (which you can't change) rather than the campaign (which you might be able to) you've basically conceded defeat.
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/aug/10/spain-economy-growth-unemployment-recovery
"The Spanish economy is being buoyed by increased exports, rising domestic demand and a record year for tourism, says Professor Robert Tornabell of Barcelona's Esade business school.
He warns against reading too much into the data. While large companies are reaping the benefits of this growth, he points out, it hasn't been sufficient to provide jobs for the country's more than 5.6 million unemployed.
The real recovery, he says, will be when the economy begins to create jobs for young people and the 3.5 million Spaniards who have been out of work for more than a year. Until then, economic growth will be no more than empty words, particularly for the more than 740,000 families in which every working-age member is unemployed......
.How growth might begin creating high-quality, stable jobs is another tough question, Tornabell says. "The government hasn't figured out how to tackle youth unemployment." Nearly a quarter of workers are still on temporary contracts – "junk jobs", as he calls them. "It's not healthy. It's not a solution."
Economist Gayle Allard of Madrid's IE business school has little doubt that the Spanish economy has turned a corner. But the lack of deep structural change has left her feeling "optimism mixed with long-term pessimism"....
Spain, she says, will probably do well. "It has gained back a lot of competitiveness, wages have really moderated and it suddenly looks very attractive again for foreign investors." But its economy continues to be vulnerable, because the recovery relies on traditional industries for growth, she says: "It's a typical Spanish recovery: a tourism-based, low-productivity economy that's now picking up. It's the same Spain."
Half the battle had already been waged, she points out, with previous Spanish governments investing heavily in higher education. "But if you don't have an economy that generates jobs for these educated kids, they have little choice but to leave the country."
Spain has turned into a net exporter of people, with just under 550,000 people leaving last year. Some 79,000 of these were Spanish nationals; the rest were departing foreign migrants, according to the National Statistics Institute."
Clueless and dangerous.
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/story/43791/lib_dem_will_not_be_punished_for_israel_comments.html
We know the party that the vast majority of Jews wont be voting for at the GE.
Germany 1.01%
France 1.41%
Italy 2.71
Spain 2.57%
UK 2.42%
US 2.42%
Even Portugal can borrow relatively cheaply (3.68%), and Greece at 6.25% is a lot better than it has been.
Of course, things can change, but at the moment there is no sign of bondholders losing confidence in France, Italy and Spain.
Of course that doesn't mean that the Eurozone economies aren't in a pretty dire state (making the UK look even better by comparison). It's looking more like the long Japanese stagnation, with low government bold yields a symptom of low growth and zero inflation or even deflation. Meanwhile unemployment remains unacceptably high across much of the EU. It's a toxic combination.
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/a-level-students-reassured-that-it-is-all-bollocks-2014081489573
You might enjoy this:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/11032571/Italys-Renzi-must-bring-back-the-lira-to-end-depression.html
It mentions also that 'the Spanish think, mistakenly, they are out of the woods...'. Indeed.
I remember when young going to Straiton on church outings and it seemed the other side of the world but is just past Ayr.
Always great going on the "Electric Brae", still enjoy that today as well.
Good - I hate those 9am next day start counts - or even worse wait until Sunday.
I personally have bet with many posters on here that ukip will do reasonably well, not spectacularly, next year, and the odds have moved my way in each case, as they have in each constituency I backed them in.
Also ukip just finished first in a national election that they were odds against to do a month previously, so where's the delusion?
#UKIP is contesting three by-elections today:
West ward, Beaconsfield TC
South ward, Beaconsfield TC
Knight's Hill ward, Lambeth LBC
The result of 2014's independence referendum is unlikely to be declared in the early hours of the morning, according to a report.
While ballots in the historic vote will be counted overnight, a paper from Chief Counting Officer (designate) Mary Pitcaithly said this does not necessarily mean the result will be announced overnight.
"Getting the result right is more important than getting it quickly," it says.
http://news.stv.tv/politics/247065-independence-referendum-result-unlikely-to-be-declared-overnight/
Nevertheless although UK yields are a bit higher than the recent past it remains that current yields are historically very low. I believe (although I may be totally wrong) that yields reflect expectations of inflation and ours has been a bit higher than other places in the recent past, but look to be still subdued.
Unless it's a load of kippers at the count (cf Newark), we'll probably know the result in the early hours.
Am I alone in thinking that Pope Francis is turning out to be a rather good pope (as far as popes can go), at least according to his words?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-28768880
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28189906
http://time.com/2961974/pope-francis-sex-abuse-catholic/
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/other/pope-who-am-i-judge-gay-people-f6C10780741
(Note: I am not Catholic)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-28783990 …
Wish you were here? Yes, just not with Ed: poll reveals Miliband is party leader public would least like to share a holiday with
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/wish-you-were-here-yes-just-not-with-ed-poll-reveals-miliband-is-party-leader-public-would-least-like-to-share-a-holiday-with-9668410.html
Simply admitting I don't know is obviously not acceptable for some.
If the French and Italian economies don't get moving any time soon then the wagons will start circling again. The fundamentals in these two countries have not changed since 2009. If anything they have worsened with higher taxes on production and wealth and more red tape for businesses.
I don't think either country will default or even contemplate doing so, but the debt deflation trap is going to hit them both extremely hard. In Japan the carry trade and monetisation of government debt mitigated a lot of the normal debt deflation symptoms, Italy and France will have neither because Germany will always have lower priced debt and the debt markets will always function better in Germany. Why would any sane person or business issue paper on the French debt markets when German markets are much less volatile...
Really though it could go either way. The slow death with stagnation and deflation, or if Italy and France continue to contract then I think another crisis could erupt and a selective bailout without any conditions applied may be the order of the day. How that would play with the rest of Europe though, I couldn't say. I don't think the Greeks and Spanish would be too happy, but given the alternative of an Italian default and EMU exit I'm not sure if there are any alternatives. It's one thing to push around Greece, Spain, Ireland and Portugal who's people seem to be on board for the EU project, it's another entirely to do that to Italy and especially France where the people are more sceptical and there are extremist parties hoovering up discontented voters.
If it were me I would force Germany out of the EMU and settle the internal debts that the rest of the EMU have built up by a combination of inflation and devaluation. Germany must be made to feel the full force of their policies wrt to currency strength and inflation. The rest of the continent shouldn't pay for sins of German doctrine. Let Germany go back to the DM and let them deal with an appreciating currency and deflation that brings by either monetary or fiscal stimulus. While they are in the EMU Germany has absolutely no need for either because the Euro is undervalued for them.
Lib Dem 1/6
Labour 7/2
Odds have not shifted of late in spite of the absence of any Lib Dem polling recovery.
I'm shocked, shocked by that.
But I still argue that the situation could not be worse than it is now. Something you, with your pathetic satire, seems to ignore. I never said it would be neat, or good: just that it would be better.
To make matters worse, Assad is still using chemical weapons. That is just part of what Miliband wrought. Their blood is on his hands.
http://www.hrw.org/news/2014/05/13/syria-strong-evidence-government-used-chemicals-weapon
I'm not saying I know how to get them do that, but if you don't have a way to get them to do that you probably also don't have the ability to restructure the Eurozone.
Lots of pictures of packed meetings organised by YES but dearth of NO meetings and when you see stalls NO is always abandoned. So on the face of it if they are there they are very very very shy.
As for the eurocrisis, Japan has been in recession almost continuously since 1993, their debt is the greatest in the world and they pay nothing on interest because the bank of japan and the japanese pension funds always buy the debt, same in the eurozone but with extra FED money.
However I think we are witnessing a very modern civilizational collapse, in past history great countries collapse after war or after a series of failed crops or after a long period of political decay or a combination of all the previous ones.
Look at Japan, its going down for more than 20 years, no "reform" has stopped the decline, no new parties or politicians take over, Japan is still a one party system, people may moan but they are not willing to do anything about it and their population is suffering and declining in numbers, but crucially no change just "stay the course".
Same with europe and most in the west I believe, there is no appetite to change course just to stoically persevere until the inevitable end.
Just look at the rest of the world, with a little bit of inflation or unemployment and they do a revolution, here nothing happens.
However there is still hope, europe is a collection of 28 countries, statistically even if there is a 5% change of an anti-european party to be elected at some time in each of these countries chances are that one of them will.
And once one country leaves the rest will follow.
But to get back to the vote, what would have happened if Cameron had supported the Labour motion requiring evidence of chemical weapons use? Then Cameron's motion passes and ... nothing happens because the Americans and Europeans are against it.
Worst case it will be an awful lot closer than BT and media would have you believe, it does not feel like NO are ahead. May be wishful thinking I suppose.
Quantitative easing in Europe is off the table, so other solutions need to be looked at. The solution that is the least painful is a German EMU exit which would allow for the Euro to weaken and the DM to strengthen balancing out German over-austerity between 1995-2005 on wages and spending.
Of course then the German economic miracle would be derailed, but it would unleash market forces on an economy that has had it very easy for the last few years with an undervalued currency.