(Of course there is a chance that Putin will use this to justify all sorts of nonsense - I rather dismiss that)
Personally I can't see how Russia gains from shooting down a defenceless commercial airliner deliberately.
Of course they didn't - if it was shot down it was probably a Russian-manufactured missile. Neither of these things really matter though. What does matter is that entirely innocent people seem to have been killed just for flying through Ukrainian airspace. Putin's little scuff becomes a terrible thing if it cuts Russia off.
Again the Western tendency to ascribe God like abilities to Putin. The rebels in Eastern Ukraine are their own creation, reflecting the will of the people of that region. If the US and hardliners had not ended the European-Russian ceasefire discussions then this might not have happened.
I await more details but I hope neither sides seek to make capital out of a tragic event.
What bullshit. The polls of Eastern Ukraine have shown large majorities want to remain part of Ukraine. Probably because they're Ukrainian.
You can't conduct an opinion poll in a war zone.
Russian-speakers are a majority in Lugansk and Donetsk oblasts.
But don't necessarily want to join Putin's thugocracy.
A Ukranian separatist leader boasts[2] of shooting down an aircraft with a missile in the same time and area where the Malay aircraft was shot down with a missile. Ukranian seperatists have previously shot down fixed wing[5] aircraft with missiles and rotary-wing[3] aircraft with missiles and have anti-aircraft artillery.[4]
Surface-to-air missiles are not easy for separatists to get hold of: they weren't used in Iraq nor Noughties Afghanistan nor Northern Ireland[1], but they were used in 1980's Afghanistan and during the Yugoslav wars. They are usually a sign that a government has gotten involved.
I think, given the above, that we should at least consider the possibility that Ukranian seperatists, armed with looted or Russian-supplied SAMs, shot down the airliner with a missile, believing it to be a Ukranian military aircraft.
I recall that about a month ago the Russian backed separatists had got hold of some ground-to-air missiles and brought down a Ukraine air force Antonov transport killing 20 or so Ukrainian servicemen.
Based on no info at all, it is my guess that they have tried to pull off a repeat performance and, tragically, picked the wrong target. Will be very, very bad for Russia if I'm right.
Doubtful, Patrick.
The plane was flying at 33,000 feet, well beyond the target range of separatist militia capabilities. It could only have been downed by a fighter plane or sophisticated air defence system only available to government militaries.
Some suggestion that former government tech is in the hands of the rebels - including the possibility of fighter jets from the Crimea(?)
Always the possibility of Russian tech in rebels hands as well.
It's a possibility but not probable.
The Russians are very careful about who gets their hands on the sophisticated stuff.
At this very early stage all signs are pointing to a Ukrainian military unit making a mistake.
But then early signs can be very wrong.
I can't imagine why a Ukrainian unit would make a mistake like this. As far as I know the separatists have no air power and so I don't see why the Ukranians would even be considering firing on aircraft.
I thought the pro-Russian militias had acquired anti-aircraft guns just a couple of weeks ago?
You need specialist hardware to shoot down a plane flying 9 miles high, not just stabdard air defence kit.
19:00: A tweet (in Russian) from a key Twitter account used by pro-Russian separatists, in which they claim to have captured a Buk surface-to-air missile system, has now been deleted, BBC Monitoring observes. Ukrainians say the Malaysian plane could have been downed with a Buk, but pro-Russian rebels have now denied they have it.
A damning report into extremist infiltration of Birmingham schools has uncovered evidence of "co-ordinated, deliberate and sustained action to introduce an intolerant and aggressive Islamist ethos into some schools in the city".
The conclusion emerges from a leaked draft of a report, commissioned by the former education secretary Michael Gove and written by Peter Clarke, the former head of the Metropolitan police's counterterrorism command, which is due to be published in the next 24 hours.
19:00: A tweet (in Russian) from a key Twitter account used by pro-Russian separatists, in which they claim to have captured a Buk surface-to-air missile system, has now been deleted, BBC Monitoring observes. Ukrainians say the Malaysian plane could have been downed with a Buk, but pro-Russian rebels have now denied they have it.
19:00: A tweet (in Russian) from a key Twitter account used by pro-Russian separatists, in which they claim to have captured a Buk surface-to-air missile system, has now been deleted, BBC Monitoring observes. Ukrainians say the Malaysian plane could have been downed with a Buk, but pro-Russian rebels have now denied they have it.
The OP referred to "anti-aircraft guns" which is a bit off the mark. But we certainly can't rule out the rebel militias on the grounds they don't have the kit.
"The Ukrainian Security Service SBU has published on its Youtube account what it says are intercepted conversations between pro-Russian militants in which they say they admit shooting down a civilian plane, BBC Monitoring reports."
make of that what you will.
{edit] taped conversation on youtube has been pulled.
Unnervingly, a big exercise over the Lune valley and Forest of Bowland this afternoon with Eurofighter Typhhons seemingly providing air cover whilst a Puma conducted an operation in the valley... At one point the Puma hovered over the field behind us whilst the fighters circled above.... May just be that Fallon has opened the purse strings now that Hammond has moved on...
We should ditch Trident. Not saying it's the right time for UKIP to say it (at this point it would enable everyone to paint them as loonies), but it is the right thing to do. The monies not spent on upgrading and maintaining our strategic nuclear capability would be spent on conventional forces, and we would maintain tactical nuclear weapons, of different yields and delivery mechanisms -far more of a deterrent than the current white elephant that we can only use if the US says we can.
Comments
A Ukranian separatist leader boasts[2] of shooting down an aircraft with a missile in the same time and area where the Malay aircraft was shot down with a missile. Ukranian seperatists have previously shot down fixed wing[5] aircraft with missiles and rotary-wing[3] aircraft with missiles and have anti-aircraft artillery.[4]
Surface-to-air missiles are not easy for separatists to get hold of: they weren't used in Iraq nor Noughties Afghanistan nor Northern Ireland[1], but they were used in 1980's Afghanistan and during the Yugoslav wars. They are usually a sign that a government has gotten involved.
I think, given the above, that we should at least consider the possibility that Ukranian seperatists, armed with looted or Russian-supplied SAMs, shot down the airliner with a missile, believing it to be a Ukranian military aircraft.
[1] my memory may be faulty on Northern Ireland: did they get one from Libya?
[2] http://www.rferl.org/content/ukraine-separatist-leader-boasts-downing-plane/25460930.html
[3] http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27618681
[4] http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27633117
[5] http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28299334 or http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28298202
19:00: A tweet (in Russian) from a key Twitter account used by pro-Russian separatists, in which they claim to have captured a Buk surface-to-air missile system, has now been deleted, BBC Monitoring observes. Ukrainians say the Malaysian plane could have been downed with a Buk, but pro-Russian rebels have now denied they have it.
The conclusion emerges from a leaked draft of a report, commissioned by the former education secretary Michael Gove and written by Peter Clarke, the former head of the Metropolitan police's counterterrorism command, which is due to be published in the next 24 hours.
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/jul/17/leaked-report-aggressive-islamist-agenda-birmingham-schools
Dreadful news about the plane going down over eastern Ukraine.
that report is interesting for many reasons, not least because it suggests local politicians come out of it very badly in an area that's key for 2015.
"The Ukrainian Security Service SBU has published on its Youtube account what it says are intercepted conversations between pro-Russian militants in which they say they admit shooting down a civilian plane, BBC Monitoring reports."
make of that what you will.
{edit] taped conversation on youtube has been pulled.
Reading that article in the Guardian again, it isn;t just interesting. It's potentially very powerful stuff.
Saying awful things about UK service personnel??? wait until the Mail get hold of it.
http://www.ukipdaily.com/defend-island/#.U8gkZ41dWoc
Looks pretty good thinking to me.
"If it disappears, this is what it looks like": #MH17 passenger's chilling Facebook message http://fw.to/OxLTsWC
Could someone have blown up the plane from within?