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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest from the “Polling Observatory” is that there’s been a slow decline in CON prospects but GE2015 still too close to call
Each month political scientists at a group of universities put out a GE2015 forecast under the rather grandiose banner of “The Polling Observatory” which is based on current polling and historical polling experience. The latest is in the chart above.
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What if the unusual circumstances of having a set date for the election 10 months away delays the usual swing back because voters do not start to turn until they are faced with having to make a decision? At present they can definitely postpone that decision until next year. Past polling always carried the possibility that an election might be called earlier.
Some great points.
I seem to remember that a Labour MP had taken up the case of the brother of a Tory MP - who was in exactly that predicament, re: dialysis machine. I think the Tories now realise the policy is lousy, they are just working out how to reverse ferret without losing too much face.
I suspect we'll be hearing lots more about this between now and May 2015.
I think the reason is that the prices of the things people want are outstripping their ability to pay. Homes, but other things too.
You've answered your own question, to some degree.
The poll tax: if you disregard houses with lots of people living in them, what's wrong with the policy?
Also, as and when family circumstances changes, for example a child leaves home, there is huge disruption to the family, possibly meaning a move a long way from friends, family and work potentially threatening their ability to continue working.
I think until February next year, the Election would not begin to permeate into the general consciousness. Then people will begin to chat and the full 65% would only notice when the starting gun is fired.
Something similar was my favourite from the classic Pelican statistics book, Facts From Figures. Anti-vaccination campaigners had a graph suggesting that the rate of decline in (I think) smallpox had slowed as it approached 0, and suggested this was because the rising rate of vaccination was dangerous. The author noted that the logic implied that without vaccination, we would soon see Revival of the Dead.
It seems a bit like the kid on the immigration programme who wanted to live in a flat in Romford and work outside complaining about immigrants who are willing to live in a shared house and do whatever minimum wage job they can get. I think he would be told to adapt by many on here who slam the idea of the so called bedroom tax
tim was pooh-poohed by many in PB. He turned out to be correct. The demand and supply are in different places.
Interesting concept. Perhaps we should offer people one of these in exchange for their positive vote.
So you get to take one off someone's total, rather than add to someone.
17/07/2014 13:53
Parliamentary Ombudsman should seek to scrap ElComm at once & replace it with an organisation that is fit for purpose ukip.org/electoral_comm…
Amen to that...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-28331598
The upheavals the bedroom tax is said to cause are experienced by people in the private sector constantly, to complete silence from the left.
If it rains I think Vettel, Button and Hulkenberg may do better than would otherwise be the case (I have a vague notion Vettel's performed well in wet qualifying sessions this year).
The masters (and mistresses) of hypocrisy.
twitter.com/GABaines/status/488763301565050880/photo/1
Over the long haul the Lib Dems hopefully won't disappear: I'd like to think that a portion of the electorate don't just think in polarised black/white us/them ways. In the immediate future the LDs should/may swing it for Labour.
Yes, there are people who will write reviews to be provocative or to try to get compensation - but legitimate comment should not be subject to judicial inspection.
My calculations indicate that if the 2009-2010 swingback is repeated they'll be 4.66% ahead.
The L&N, Fisher and Prosser models put the forecast lead a little higher...
Is there anybody left who still supports the bedroom tax?
A simple yes or no will suffice.
All credit to those who came up with the name - but this policy has not created a tax.
Lie about it all you like - but the truth is that it is not a tax, it never was a tax, it never will be a tax.
Reports that a Malaysian airliner with 295 passengers on board has crashed in Ukraine...
777 bound from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur.
Interesting.
Stop whining. You sound like Grant Shapps. It's called the bedroom tax. Get over it.
Pay a bit more to have a spare room, move somewhere smaller if you want to pay the same.
What's wrong with that?
Seems to me another case of benefits being a lifestyle choice, rather than a safety net
Pprune saying "dropped off the radar" which not necessarily is the same as "hitting the ground"
But.........................
A suspected norovirus outbreak at the Commonwealth Games athletes' village in Glasgow has affected a further 20 people.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-28351561
Con lead forecasts 17/7/14
L&N: 6.1%
Chris Prosser: 5.0%
Simple repeat of 2009: 4.7%
Fisher: 3.0%
TPO: 2.0% ?
By-elections: -1.2%
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10974050/Malaysian-plane-crashes-on-Ukraine-Russia-border-live.html
There no real evidence that "swingback" is usual, let alone inevitable.
If we only take elections post the (primarily) shy-Tory mini revolution in polling the sample size is tiny. And that's before we even go into the new political dynamics, coalition, 4 party politics etc.
The USSR have an unfortunate history in shooting down commercial jets, but in this case I'll guess that Ukraine have been a bit trigger happy in trying to retaliate for the loss of their military jet...
The spare room subsidy does not apply to pensioners, according to Shelter's website. I think it would be churlish to deny there have been some problems with disabled people, however.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=48YlDSVFVMI
A population of voters can't be treated as if it obeys statistical rules in the same way a population of atoms or whatever.
To put it another way, why on earth should "swingback" be usual / inevitable?
Why should millions of voters start viewing the Government more favourably and change their minds, no matter who is in power, just because an election gets closer?
You would have thought that would make sense given the recent happenings there
"American officials suggested Russian weapons were behind the downing of a Ukrainian transport aircraft on Monday. Here's what they had to say:
"On July 14th, Ukrainians lost an An-26 transport jet, which was shot down from an altitude of 21,000 feet, with eight crew on board. And only very sophisticated weapons systems would be able to reach this height.""
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10974050/Malaysian-plane-crashes-on-Ukraine-Russia-border-live.html
After Russia became a 'democratic' rather than communist state, and the role of ITAR-TASS as official government news agency was reasserted, Interfax moved away from general news to specialist financial news services.
Interfax have a sister organisation in the Ukraine.
The fact that the news of the crash was first announced by Interfax and they are leading on the story would suggest that the 'aggressor' is probably the (Kiev controlled) Ukrainian military rather than Russian forces. A state controlled news agency (whether Russian or Ukrainian) would likely be much slower and more cautious in its reporting.
It should be noted that although ITAR-TASS has now announced the crash it has made no suggestion as to cause.
That isn't a stock response. It is an honest one based on the real world. Where you can make a difference is in building in enough checks and balances to deal with the difficult cases in a humane and fair manner. Has the current system been sufficient in that regard, probably not - but it doesn't undermine the central thrust of the policy which is based on fairness.
But continue spinning your hate-filled language - people will judge accordingly.
That's what I initially thought but if this flight was heading West to East and still on the Ukrainian side, then why would Ukrainian military think it was a target?
Perhaps a little early to speculate, but planes don't normally just fall out of the sky.
//twitter.com/flightradar24/status/489795658879348737/photo/1
Its architects would have been well aware of its pros (some good "tough on scroungers" headlines in the Rightwing press) and cons (hardship for some of the most vulnerable people whilst saving little if any money).
Hugh is entitled to attack the bedroom tax if he wishes. Many labour people feel the same about it. But the outrage of labour people must always come before the county's finances, and tends to overlook practices like illegal subletting of council space.
I, and many others, would be interested to hear.
It is believed the plane was struck by BUK surface-to-air missile at 33,000ft around 20 miles before entering Russian airspace.
The shoulder-launched Russian-made BUK surface-to-air missile can be packed into a golf bag and assembled and fired very rapidly by one person with minimal training.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2696161/BREAKING-NEWS-Malaysian-passenger-plane-carrying-295-people-crashes-Ukraine-near-Russian-border.html
My speculation is based on the Kremlinology of news reporting and not any facts.
Interesting to note though that ITAR-TASS (the official state owned news agency of Russia) is reporting that there were 280 passengers and 15 crew "all believed dead" and that "a source in air traffic control circles said earlier that there were no Russian citizens on board". So someone at the agency is well briefed!
ITAR-TASS also reported that the plane came down 60 km inside the Ukrainian border with Russia.
It should also be noted that this is the fourth plane downed by military action in the past few days:
The Russian Defense Ministry describes as absurd the Ukrainian side's accusations of a missile attack against Ukraine’s Su-25 assault plane on July 16.
July 14, the press service of the self-proclaimed Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR) confirmed that the militiamen downed two planes of the Ukrainian Air Force. Earlier, the military operation staff reported that “a strike aircraft was downed near Lisichansk, and a transport plane — near Izvarino”, allegedly the An-26, with which the connection was lost earlier.
July 11, near the city of Perevalsk (Luhansk region), LPR militia downed a Ukrainian Air Force plane, allegedly a strike aircraft. July 1, they also managed to hit a Su-25 attack plane. The two pilots managed to eject. Overnight to June 14, during a landing approach in Luhansk airport, an Il-76 transport plane carrying military equipment, ammunition and reinforce, was attacked. The Ukrainian authorities confirmed the death of 49 servicemen. [All from ITAR-TASS].
The fact that one or other of the warring parties has now downed an international passenger jet is going to have massive implications both for cross Ukrainian flight travel and politically in escalating the Russia-Ukraine dispute to a new crisis peak.
Reports are that the plane was at 33k feet and this would mean that only sophisticated missles could have shot down a plane at that height. If this is found to be Russians or Ukrainian seperatists using Russian missles, then serious consequences could follow. Could NATO forces be considered to assist Ukraine ?
You must also call Canary Wharf One Canada Square and insist that West Ham don't play at Upton Park
Other nationalities unknown at the moment.
All the signs, including video coverage of smoke plume from crash, are that the plane was shot down by a sophisticated air defence missile (i.e. not a shoulder borne insurgent's bazooka!).
Very muted announcements from Kiev government, although no finger pointing yet from official Russian sources.
Evidence? I'm with Surby. Almost noone would even know what fixed term parliaments are never mind act differently because of them.
http://www.itv.com/news/update/2014-07-17/ukraine-armed-forces-didnt-shoot-down-plane/
If people want this, there are hundreds of news sources for it.
But for now, people are going on holiday, enjoying the weather, etc... So lets see where things are later in the year.
DONETSK, July 17. /ITAR-TASS/. Militiamen of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) brought down a military transport Antonov-26 (An-26) plane of the Ukrainian Air Force on the outskirts of the town of Torez, eyewitnesses said.
A missile hit the An-26, it fell on the ground and caught blaze, they said.
On July 14, militiamen of the self-proclaimed Luhansk People’s Republic downed another An-26 of the Ukrainian Air Force.
It does seem like there is a shooting party going on along the Russian-Ukrainian border.
Global crisis - who would you prefer, PM Cameron, or PM Miliband?
That's my opinion, and I'm expressing it.
If you don't like me expressing it you need not look at PB while I'm on here.
What gives you the right to set the agenda?
The same could apply to reporting of election results, but PB has shown to be superior on that front, for both speed and back-story behind results.
I find generally the PB community provide some excellent info about breaking events that you don't find spoon fed to you on BBC, Sky, etc. Already learned some interesting stuff from AveryLP in regards to news sources.