So Taffys, you would retain the BT presumably? Think it's a good policy?
On balance, I guess the answer is yes, but I have read some unhappy stories about disabled people. If they had excluded the registered disabled, it would be a hell yes. The trouble is 'disability' covers a multitude of conditions.
Apparently, pilots were notified 3 months ago not to fly over this area....
Don't think it works that way. The routes are given to the pilots all the way along the route. They just put in the relevant flight path code given to them and auto pilot does the work. The plane is on a flight corridor. If you checked flight24radar, I suspect that you will see numerous other aircraft on the same route today.
Lloyd BlankFine (@Lloyds_Casino) 17/07/2014 17:09 Unbelievable: passenger posted just before takeoff: "if it dissapears, this is what it looks like". @zerohedge pic.twitter.com/ew0GWcZHKf
ITAR-TASS has chosen the last few minutes to release a long article on advances in Russian missile defence technology and the Kremlin's plans to deploy what they are calling an "anti-ballistic control arc along its border".
It contains this paragraph:
Voronezh-M is a unique radar station with a huge potential to build up combat capabilities which became another development in resolving strategic tasks which the Supreme Commander-in-Chief had set, Designer-General of the new radar station and the Russian domestic missile attack warning system Sergey Boyev said. It plays a key role in the missile attack warning system.
This radar station can detect, track down and classify modern and promising aerospace attack weapons and will operate for information support to resolve the tasks of deterrence of missile strikes on Russia and higher effectiveness of retaliatory actions of Russian armed forces. Jointly with space control satellites it can detect launches of strategic ballistic missiles, medium-and short-range missiles, as well as cruise missiles and different aircrafts starting from strategic bombers to fighters. Give targeting orders on these targets to decision-making posts.
Now why would the Russians release this information at this time?
Ed. By an absolute mile. Has already saved us from a very ill judged Syrian intervention.
Next question.
No, he prejudiced the ability of the UK to intervene in Syria - not action itself (which would have been decided later) - when's his meeting with Obama?
O/T - Talking of tim (as some were earlier), I've just had an e-mail exchange with him: he hasn't changed, still the same sweet sugar dumpling whom I miss desperately here. But he'll pay up on his bets in 2015 of that I'm sure (as of course will I should disaster befall).
Ed. By an absolute mile. Has already saved us from a very ill judged Syrian intervention.
Next question.
No, he prejudiced the ability of the UK to intervene in Syria - not action itself (which would have been decided later) - when's his meeting with Obama?
And look how well things have developed in the Middle East since...
A triumph for Miliband - peace is breaking out all over the region. Oh, what? It isn't? It is getting worse? Really? Oh.
Apparently, pilots were notified 3 months ago not to fly over this area....
Don't think it works that way. The routes are given to the pilots all the way along the route. They just put in the relevant flight path code given to them and auto pilot does the work. The plane is on a flight corridor. If you checked flight24radar, I suspect that you will see numerous other aircraft on the same route today.
O/T - Talking of tim (as some were earlier), I've just had an e-mail exchange with him: he hasn't changed, still the same sweet sugar dumpling whom I miss desperately here. But he'll pay up on his bets in 2015 of that I'm sure (as of course will I should disaster befall).
Can't you tell him to stop sulking and just come back to kisses and flowers from all?
I have this fear of tim's grievance assuming Hillsborough proportions.
O/T - Talking of tim (as some were earlier), I've just had an e-mail exchange with him: he hasn't changed, still the same sweet sugar dumpling whom I miss desperately here. But he'll pay up on his bets in 2015 of that I'm sure (as of course will I should disaster befall).
Can't you tell him to stop sulking and just come back to kisses and flowers from all?
I have this fear of tim's grievance assuming Hillsborough proportions.
As Toby Young put it "How to lose friends and Alienate people" - The whole Russia/Ukraine situation will be on everyone's radar now. Putin is in serious trouble if there's any hint of a Russian involvement, and imperilled even if there isn't.
The Ukrainian adventures have gone from a scout-camp to something that really matters. Rich Russians fly in planes - quite often over Ukraine.
Oh shit. My employer is an oil major headquartered in NL and we have a huge finance service centre in KL. Horrible feeling that colleagues will have been on that flight. Very sad.
ITAR-TASS are now most definitely finger pointing:
MOSCOW, July 17. /ITAR-TASS/. Ukraine’s armed forces dispatched the Buk anti-aircraft missile system battalion to the area of the city of Donetsk on Wednesday, a well-informed source said referring to the data recording system.
Another battalion of the same weapons is said to be in the process of embarkation in the city of Kharkiv, northwest of Donetsk, the source said adding that the aircraft at an altitude of over 10,000 meters could be shot down only with the weapons of the S-300 or Buk (Beech) missile systems.
In the meantime, militias of the self-proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Luhansk have said they do not possess armament systems of this class.
Militias of the self-proclaimed republics in Ukraine's east are not armed with the Buk anti-aircraft missile systems, the press service of the self-proclaimed Luhansk People's Republic said in comments on the Ukrainian authorities' statements about a possible involvement of the Donetsk and Luhansk militias to the downing of the Malaysian plane.
The release is posted below a photograph of the BUK anti-aircraft system with a 'helpful' explanatory caption:
The aircraft at an altitude of over 10,000 meters could be shot down only with the weapons of the S-300 or Buk (Beech) missile systems
If the Russians or their proxies shot down a passenger plane it's time for full on sanctions on all their exports. It would be pathetic if European powers don't react to this.
Oh shit. My employer is an oil major headquartered in NL and we have a huge finance service centre in KL. Horrible feeling that colleagues will have been on that flight. Very sad.
And look how well things have developed in the Middle East since...
A triumph for Miliband - peace is breaking out all over the region. Oh, what? It isn't? It is getting worse? Really? Oh.
If we had intervened in what was then Syria, we would have only made a calamitous situation which we don't understand far worse. Despite the exaggerated claims of politicians and the intelligence services*, the events in what is now the Islamic State pose a minimal threat to the peace, order and good government of the United Kingdom. We had no right or justification to intervene, and were right not to do so. That having been said, Miliband's behaviour was disgraceful. He was unwilling to oppose intervention in principle, but couldn't carry his party's support for an intervention he had previously supported, and so put forward an absurd compromise motion which allowed him to preserve the unity of the Labour Party, but did not differ in substance from HMG's motion. Neither motion having been carried, intervention was ruled out by the government. He acted out of base partisan interest, not principle.
No I wasn't, I just said if you don't like the topic of conversation on a message board I think it's best to do something else rather than try to stop others talking about it. Nothing personal at all
Ie I have no interest in Scottish Indy debate, and when it is the topic of discussion, I just don't comment. I wouldn't be so self important to think that my mentioning that I think it's boring would matter
Anyway, off to LONDON, no less, now. Is the weather nice there too?
And look how well things have developed in the Middle East since...
A triumph for Miliband - peace is breaking out all over the region. Oh, what? It isn't? It is getting worse? Really? Oh.
If we had intervened in what was then Syria, we would have only made a calamitous situation which we don't understand far worse. Despite the exaggerated claims of politicians and the intelligence services*, the events in what is now the Islamic State pose a minimal threat to the peace, order and good government of the United Kingdom. We had no right or justification to intervene, and were right not to do so. That having been said, Miliband's behaviour was disgraceful. He was unwilling to oppose intervention in principle, but couldn't carry his party's support for an intervention he had previously supported, and so put forward an absurd compromise motion which allowed him to preserve the unity of the Labour Party, but did not differ in substance from HMG's motion. Neither motion having been carried, intervention was ruled out by the government. He acted out of base partisan interest, not principle.
*Dearlove notwithstanding.
And that, for me, just serves as further proof of why he is completely unfit to lead our nation.
O/T - Talking of tim (as some were earlier), I've just had an e-mail exchange with him: he hasn't changed, still the same sweet sugar dumpling whom I miss desperately here. But he'll pay up on his bets in 2015 of that I'm sure (as of course will I should disaster befall).
Can't you tell him to stop sulking and just come back to kisses and flowers from all?
I have this fear of tim's grievance assuming Hillsborough proportions.
An unbelievably crass and stupid comment.
Thank you, Hugh.
It is Lympe-Pole policy to encourage constructive criticism. All feedback from fellow PBers, whether positive or negative, is warmly welcomed and submitted to our Communication Evaluation Task Force. The CEFT has taken careful note of your comments and placed them on file for future reference.
I recall that about a month ago the Russian backed separatists had got hold of some ground-to-air missiles and brought down a Ukraine air force Antonov transport killing 20 or so Ukrainian servicemen.
Based on no info at all, it is my guess that they have tried to pull off a repeat performance and, tragically, picked the wrong target. Will be very, very bad for Russia if I'm right.
As Toby Young put it "How to lose friends and Alienate people" - The whole Russia/Ukraine situation will be on everyone's radar now. Putin is in serious trouble if there's any hint of a Russian involvement, and imperilled even if there isn't.
The Ukrainian adventures have gone from a scout-camp to something that really matters. Rich Russians fly in planes - quite often over Ukraine.
Patchy evidence points the finger at the Ukranians. Let us wait and see before ascribing blame.
As Toby Young put it "How to lose friends and Alienate people" - The whole Russia/Ukraine situation will be on everyone's radar now. Putin is in serious trouble if there's any hint of a Russian involvement, and imperilled even if there isn't.
The Ukrainian adventures have gone from a scout-camp to something that really matters. Rich Russians fly in planes - quite often over Ukraine.
Patchy evidence points the finger at the Ukranians. Let us wait and see before ascribing blame.
First official Putin response:
MOSCOW, July 17./ITAR-TASS/. Russian President Vladimir Putin tells Obama of necessity to immediately and unconditionally cease fire in southeastern Ukraine - Kremlin.
Putin tells Obama that US [? should this be Russia] will contribute to launch of peace negotiating process in Ukraine
Who is suggesting that the public at large is currently interested in politics or a GE just under a year away?! We have had fixed term Parliaments at Holyrood for fifteen years now, so I certainly have some experience of this! I was suggesting that the last Parliament was no more a normal Westminster one due to such long term GE uncertainty and the subsequent media coverage than this now fixed term Parliament.
(Of course there is a chance that Putin will use this to justify all sorts of nonsense - I rather dismiss that)
Personally I can't see how Russia gains from shooting down a defenceless commercial airliner deliberately.
Of course they didn't - if it was shot down it was probably a Russian-manufactured missile. Neither of these things really matter though. What does matter is that entirely innocent people seem to have been killed just for flying through Ukrainian airspace. Putin's little scuff becomes a terrible thing if it cuts Russia off.
If confirmed it will be the world's worst air disaster caused by shootdown, narrowly exceeding the death toll of the Iranian airbus, shot down by the Yanks in 1988...
No I wasn't, I just said if you don't like the topic of conversation on a message board I think it's best to do something else rather than try to stop others talking about it. Nothing personal at all
Ie I have no interest in Scottish Indy debate, and when it is the topic of discussion, I just don't comment. I wouldn't be so self important to think that my mentioning that I think it's boring would matter
Anyway, off to LONDON, no less, now. Is the weather nice there too?
Steamy. Too hot on this Number 52 bus on which I am sitting.
I recall that about a month ago the Russian backed separatists had got hold of some ground-to-air missiles and brought down a Ukraine air force Antonov transport killing 20 or so Ukrainian servicemen.
Based on no info at all, it is my guess that they have tried to pull off a repeat performance and, tragically, picked the wrong target. Will be very, very bad for Russia if I'm right.
Doubtful, Patrick.
The plane was flying at 33,000 feet, well beyond the target range of separatist militia capabilities. It could only have been downed by a fighter plane or sophisticated air defence system only available to government militaries.
If confirmed it will be the world's worst air disaster caused by shootdown, narrowly exceeding the death toll of the Iranian airbus, shot down by the Yanks in 1988...
And there was the shooting down of Korean Airlines KAL007 by a Soviet fighter plane in 1983 with the loss of 269 lives.
I recall that about a month ago the Russian backed separatists had got hold of some ground-to-air missiles and brought down a Ukraine air force Antonov transport killing 20 or so Ukrainian servicemen.
Based on no info at all, it is my guess that they have tried to pull off a repeat performance and, tragically, picked the wrong target. Will be very, very bad for Russia if I'm right.
Doubtful, Patrick.
The plane was flying at 33,000 feet, well beyond the target range of separatist militia capabilities. It could only have been downed by a fighter plane or sophisticated air defence system only available to government militaries.
Some suggestion that former government tech is in the hands of the rebels - including the possibility of fighter jets from the Crimea(?)
Always the possibility of Russian tech in rebels hands as well.
There were reports of a BUK missile launch system, near one of the disputed Ukrainian towns earlier today. Whether or not the identification was correct is anyone's guess, but if it was, it certainly has the capability.
This is the second Malaysian airliner to go down,any connection? Also is it common to fly over these areas where there are missiles flying about,albeit mainly low tech low altitude missiles. I suspect all the airlines will now re route and cause chaos. It is hard to imagine the sheer scale of the disaster and loss of life,I will have a sleepless night tonight.
The reports on the BBC are that it was shot down using a Buk missile system. It has a maximum altitude of 25km so the plane would be well within the range.
It has been used by both Russian and Ukranian forces so it is not inconceivable that it could have been either captured by separatists from Ukraine or provided by the Russians.
I recall that about a month ago the Russian backed separatists had got hold of some ground-to-air missiles and brought down a Ukraine air force Antonov transport killing 20 or so Ukrainian servicemen.
Based on no info at all, it is my guess that they have tried to pull off a repeat performance and, tragically, picked the wrong target. Will be very, very bad for Russia if I'm right.
Doubtful, Patrick.
The plane was flying at 33,000 feet, well beyond the target range of separatist militia capabilities. It could only have been downed by a fighter plane or sophisticated air defence system only available to government militaries.
Some suggestion that former government tech is in the hands of the rebels - including the possibility of fighter jets from the Crimea(?)
Always the possibility of Russian tech in rebels hands as well.
It's a possibility but not probable.
The Russians are very careful about who gets their hands on the sophisticated stuff.
At this very early stage all signs are pointing to a Ukrainian military unit making a mistake.
MH 17 joins KAL 007 and IAF 655 in the history books. Its over, the russians have lost the war, they were losing it for quite some time now but today's events are a symbolic defeat.
And here are the reasons:
The doctorine of Slow War is a failure, its supposed to offer diplomatic and political benefits but militarily is a sure defeat, you are allowed to use only a fraction of your ground forces and no air force, while the enemy can use everything they can, as a result the russians are outnumbered 10-20 times and suffer 10 times the loses of the ukranians, plus the risk of a major accident like this one renders it useless. Also contributing to the russian defeat is the mistake they did with their armament programs, the have only 550 tanks compared to 2700 that Ukraine has, though all modern T-90 compared with the 1960's-70's junk of the ukrainians, because they stopped production of the T-90 in 2011 and they retired the 4500 T-80 in back January and no new tanks are produced because they selved the T-95(they sold the design to the chinese though) in 2012 in favour of the combined fighter tank design which will be ready only in 2020.
Russia lost the war for the same reasons described by Arthur C. Clarke in 1951 in "Superiority": Overdesign, underproduction and wrong war strategy.
I recall that about a month ago the Russian backed separatists had got hold of some ground-to-air missiles and brought down a Ukraine air force Antonov transport killing 20 or so Ukrainian servicemen.
Based on no info at all, it is my guess that they have tried to pull off a repeat performance and, tragically, picked the wrong target. Will be very, very bad for Russia if I'm right.
Doubtful, Patrick.
The plane was flying at 33,000 feet, well beyond the target range of separatist militia capabilities. It could only have been downed by a fighter plane or sophisticated air defence system only available to government militaries.
Some suggestion that former government tech is in the hands of the rebels - including the possibility of fighter jets from the Crimea(?)
Always the possibility of Russian tech in rebels hands as well.
It's a possibility but not probable.
The Russians are very careful about who gets their hands on the sophisticated stuff.
At this very early stage all signs are pointing to a Ukrainian military unit making a mistake.
But then early signs can be very wrong.
I can't imagine why a Ukrainian unit would make a mistake like this. As far as I know the separatists have no air power and so I don't see why the Ukranians would even be considering firing on aircraft.
The reports on the BBC are that it was shot down using a Buk missile system. It has a maximum altitude of 25km so the plane would be well within the range.
It has been used by both Russian and Ukranian forces so it is not inconceivable that it could have been either captured by separatists from Ukraine or provided by the Russians.
Richard
I think a capture and misuse of a BUK system by separatists is highly unlikely, although it may be in the interests of various parties to promote this as a possibility.
MH 17 joins KAL 007 and IAF 655 in the history books. Its over, the russians have lost the war, they were losing it for quite some time now but today's events are a symbolic defeat.
And here are the reasons:
The doctorine of Slow War is a failure, its supposed to offer diplomatic and political benefits but militarily is a sure defeat, you are allowed to use only a fraction of your ground forces and no air force, while the enemy can use everything they can, as a result the russians are outnumbered 10-20 times and suffer 10 times the loses of the ukranians, plus the risk of a major accident like this one renders it useless. Also contributing to the russian defeat is the mistake they did with their armament programs, the have only 550 tanks compared to 2700 that Ukraine has, though all modern T-90 compared with the 1960's-70's junk of the ukrainians, because they stopped production of the T-90 in 2011 and they retired the 4500 T-80 in back January and no new tanks are produced because they selved the T-95(they sold the design to the chinese though) in 2012 in favour of the combined fighter tank design which will be ready only in 2020.
Russia lost the war for the same reasons described by Arthur C. Clarke in 1951 in "Superiority": Overdesign, underproduction and wrong war strategy.
Not sure where you are getting your numbers from but as of the end of 2013 the Russians had 15,500 tanks including MBTs, Tank Detroyers and Light tanks.
@AveryLP The logical thought is that both the Russian and Ukrainian governments have access to air traffic control information...the rebels don't, and if they had the equipment, they may have been firing semi blind.
In all the hooha over the Malaysian plane, has anyone stopped to think that the plane simply crashed. Malaysian planes have an an unfortunate habit of disappearing and crashing.
MH 17 joins KAL 007 and IAF 655 in the history books. Its over, the russians have lost the war, they were losing it for quite some time now but today's events are a symbolic defeat.
And here are the reasons:
The doctorine of Slow War is a failure, its supposed to offer diplomatic and political benefits but militarily is a sure defeat, you are allowed to use only a fraction of your ground forces and no air force, while the enemy can use everything they can, as a result the russians are outnumbered 10-20 times and suffer 10 times the loses of the ukranians, plus the risk of a major accident like this one renders it useless. Also contributing to the russian defeat is the mistake they did with their armament programs, the have only 550 tanks compared to 2700 that Ukraine has, though all modern T-90 compared with the 1960's-70's junk of the ukrainians, because they stopped production of the T-90 in 2011 and they retired the 4500 T-80 in back January and no new tanks are produced because they selved the T-95(they sold the design to the chinese though) in 2012 in favour of the combined fighter tank design which will be ready only in 2020.
Russia lost the war for the same reasons described by Arthur C. Clarke in 1951 in "Superiority": Overdesign, underproduction and wrong war strategy.
Not sure where you are getting your numbers from but as of the end of 2013 the Russians had 15,500 tanks including MBTs, Tank Detroyers and Light tanks.
In all the hooha over the Malaysian plane, has anyone stopped to think that the plane simply crashed. Malaysian planes have an an unfortunate habit of disappearing and crashing.
The RFEL in the domain name is of course Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and can not be described as possessing the utmost neutrality.
I will await y0kel's comment, since he's probably the only one of us who isn't a merely amateur analyst.
MBE
Downthread you will see an ITAR-TASS release referring to claims by rebels that they had downed an Antonov (actually now claims that two Antonovs have been shot down in separate incidents) .
No official news source is yet connecting the AN-26 claim with that of the Malaysian passenger jet.
Antonovs are (I believe) the world's largest flying military cargo jets, so mistaking a commercial airliner for an Antonov is plausible.
The russians should have declared east ukraine a no-flight zone ages ago but "slow war" prevented them from doing anything publicly. Its their fault for not conducting the war within the rules of war.
MH 17 joins KAL 007 and IAF 655 in the history books. Its over, the russians have lost the war, they were losing it for quite some time now but today's events are a symbolic defeat.
And here are the reasons:
The doctorine of Slow War is a failure, its supposed to offer diplomatic and political benefits but militarily is a sure defeat, you are allowed to use only a fraction of your ground forces and no air force, while the enemy can use everything they can, as a result the russians are outnumbered 10-20 times and suffer 10 times the loses of the ukranians, plus the risk of a major accident like this one renders it useless. Also contributing to the russian defeat is the mistake they did with their armament programs, the have only 550 tanks compared to 2700 that Ukraine has, though all modern T-90 compared with the 1960's-70's junk of the ukrainians, because they stopped production of the T-90 in 2011 and they retired the 4500 T-80 in back January and no new tanks are produced because they selved the T-95(they sold the design to the chinese though) in 2012 in favour of the combined fighter tank design which will be ready only in 2020.
Russia lost the war for the same reasons described by Arthur C. Clarke in 1951 in "Superiority": Overdesign, underproduction and wrong war strategy.
Not sure where you are getting your numbers from but as of the end of 2013 the Russians had 15,500 tanks including MBTs, Tank Detroyers and Light tanks.
In service tanks only, not those in reserve (743 T-90, 550 operational).
My understanding is that the T80s are not all withdrawn yet and they are only withdrawing them as they are replacing them with upgraded T72s so that the total number of operational tanks stays almost the same.
I think the idea that Russia is in a worse position militarily than Ukraine is simply not true.
The general panic as to why he's not responsible merely illustrates that he is.
This is not how it appears to me.
The Kremlinological signs are wrong.
This isn't a matter of pointing a finger at the side you believe to be the general aggressor in the Ukrainian-Russian conflict. It is a dispassionate view of how the ex-Soviet state apparatus (on both sides of the border) handles such issues in public.
"Several airlines, including Lufthansa and Air France, say they will now avoid eastern Ukrainian airspace"
It seems extraordinary that commercial airlines were flying over this zone in the first place, given that we know that surface-to-air missiles have been used here over the past few weeks.
The RFEL in the domain name is of course Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and can not be described as possessing the utmost neutrality.
I will await y0kel's comment, since he's probably the only one of us who isn't a merely amateur analyst.
MBE
Downthread you will see an ITAR-TASS release referring to claims by rebels that they had downed an Antonov (actually now claims that two Antonovs have been shot down in separate incidents) .
No official news source is yet connecting the AN-26 claim with that of the Malaysian passenger jet.
Antonovs are (I believe) the world's largest flying military cargo jets, so mistaking a commercial airliner for an Antonov is plausible.
The "big" Antonov you are thinking of is probably the AN-22 which is gigantic (about 58 metres long, about 64 metre wingspan).
In all the hooha over the Malaysian plane, has anyone stopped to think that the plane simply crashed. Malaysian planes have an an unfortunate habit of disappearing and crashing.
Not in a war zone.
How do you know? What makes you so sure it was shot down by Russia? Not only that, if it's a declared war zone, no civil airplane should be flying in it's space.
MH 17 joins KAL 007 and IAF 655 in the history books. Its over, the russians have lost the war, they were losing it for quite some time now but today's events are a symbolic defeat.
And here are the reasons:
The doctorine of Slow War is a failure, its supposed to offer diplomatic and political benefits but militarily is a sure defeat, you are allowed to use only a fraction of your ground forces and no air force, while the enemy can use everything they can, as a result the russians are outnumbered 10-20 times and suffer 10 times the loses of the ukranians, plus the risk of a major accident like this one renders it useless. Also contributing to the russian defeat is the mistake they did with their armament programs, the have only 550 tanks compared to 2700 that Ukraine has, though all modern T-90 compared with the 1960's-70's junk of the ukrainians, because they stopped production of the T-90 in 2011 and they retired the 4500 T-80 in back January and no new tanks are produced because they selved the T-95(they sold the design to the chinese though) in 2012 in favour of the combined fighter tank design which will be ready only in 2020.
Russia lost the war for the same reasons described by Arthur C. Clarke in 1951 in "Superiority": Overdesign, underproduction and wrong war strategy.
Not sure where you are getting your numbers from but as of the end of 2013 the Russians had 15,500 tanks including MBTs, Tank Detroyers and Light tanks.
In service tanks only, not those in reserve (743 T-90, 550 operational).
My understanding is that the T80s are not all withdrawn yet and they are only withdrawing them as they are replacing them with upgraded T72s so that the total number of operational tanks stays almost the same.
I think the idea that Russia is in a worse position militarily than Ukraine is simply not true.
They are only in a worse position for the next 6 years.
In all the hooha over the Malaysian plane, has anyone stopped to think that the plane simply crashed. Malaysian planes have an an unfortunate habit of disappearing and crashing.
I think it is a bit more than a hooha,I am deeply upset by the loss of life,and trivialising it by calling it a "hoohah", nuff said.
"Several airlines, including Lufthansa and Air France, say they will now avoid eastern Ukrainian airspace"
It seems extraordinary that airlines were flying over this zone, given that we know that surface-to-air missiles have been used here over the past few weeks.
I was expecting a diversion as they did with crimea but they didn't, not even when the airports were closed. Its all because they saved fuel by using the main air corridor for flights between europe and asia, commercial airlines took the risk and since nobody declared a no-flight zone over the battlefront no one took notice.
The RFEL in the domain name is of course Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and can not be described as possessing the utmost neutrality.
I will await y0kel's comment, since he's probably the only one of us who isn't a merely amateur analyst.
MBE
Downthread you will see an ITAR-TASS release referring to claims by rebels that they had downed an Antonov (actually now claims that two Antonovs have been shot down in separate incidents) .
No official news source is yet connecting the AN-26 claim with that of the Malaysian passenger jet.
Antonovs are (I believe) the world's largest flying military cargo jets, so mistaking a commercial airliner for an Antonov is plausible.
The "big" Antonov you are thinking of is probably the AN-22 which is gigantic (about 58 metres long, about 64 metre wingspan).
I recall that about a month ago the Russian backed separatists had got hold of some ground-to-air missiles and brought down a Ukraine air force Antonov transport killing 20 or so Ukrainian servicemen.
Based on no info at all, it is my guess that they have tried to pull off a repeat performance and, tragically, picked the wrong target. Will be very, very bad for Russia if I'm right.
Doubtful, Patrick.
The plane was flying at 33,000 feet, well beyond the target range of separatist militia capabilities. It could only have been downed by a fighter plane or sophisticated air defence system only available to government militaries.
Some suggestion that former government tech is in the hands of the rebels - including the possibility of fighter jets from the Crimea(?)
Always the possibility of Russian tech in rebels hands as well.
It's a possibility but not probable.
The Russians are very careful about who gets their hands on the sophisticated stuff.
At this very early stage all signs are pointing to a Ukrainian military unit making a mistake.
But then early signs can be very wrong.
I can't imagine why a Ukrainian unit would make a mistake like this. As far as I know the separatists have no air power and so I don't see why the Ukranians would even be considering firing on aircraft.
I thought the pro-Russian militias had acquired anti-aircraft guns just a couple of weeks ago?
In all the hooha over the Malaysian plane, has anyone stopped to think that the plane simply crashed. Malaysian planes have an an unfortunate habit of disappearing and crashing.
Not in a war zone.
How do you know? What makes you so sure it was shot down by Russia? Not only that, if it's a declared war zone, no civil airplane should be flying in it's space.
It's not a declared war zone. Some people like to support the Ruskies because they are in dispute with the EU.
@AveryLP The logical thought is that both the Russian and Ukrainian governments have access to air traffic control information...the rebels don't, and if they had the equipment, they may have been firing semi blind.
Everything is possible, Smarmy.
At this stage all we can try to do is to speculate with applied reason and experience.
I would be extremely surprised if the Russian military or political authorities would allow any of 'their' paramilitary forces in Eastern Ukraine to gain control of a sophisticated missile defence system.
You may be right but I would consider it a long shot.
In all the hooha over the Malaysian plane, has anyone stopped to think that the plane simply crashed. Malaysian planes have an an unfortunate habit of disappearing and crashing.
I think it is a bit more than a hooha,I am deeply upset by the loss of life,and trivialising it by calling it a "hoohah", nuff said.
You are the one trivialising this incident in order to get a political point across.
(Of course there is a chance that Putin will use this to justify all sorts of nonsense - I rather dismiss that)
Personally I can't see how Russia gains from shooting down a defenceless commercial airliner deliberately.
Of course they didn't - if it was shot down it was probably a Russian-manufactured missile. Neither of these things really matter though. What does matter is that entirely innocent people seem to have been killed just for flying through Ukrainian airspace. Putin's little scuff becomes a terrible thing if it cuts Russia off.
Again the Western tendency to ascribe God like abilities to Putin. The rebels in Eastern Ukraine are their own creation, reflecting the will of the people of that region. If the US and hardliners had not ended the European-Russian ceasefire discussions then this might not have happened.
I await more details but I hope neither sides seek to make capital out of a tragic event.
In all the hooha over the Malaysian plane, has anyone stopped to think that the plane simply crashed. Malaysian planes have an an unfortunate habit of disappearing and crashing.
[bad taste] So that's where MH370 ended up! [end bad taste]
Sky News aviation expert just advised that there is a NOTAM (Notice to airmen) in place for this region - a corridor in which advised not to fly. Not compulsory but nearly all airlines comply. But for some reason the MA pilot decided not to and took the shorter / cheaper routing. Oh dear.
I read this as an issue of pilot mental stability / reliability / judgment of both recent MA disasters as a contributory factor (or only factor of the first one). Not good for MA.
(Of course there is a chance that Putin will use this to justify all sorts of nonsense - I rather dismiss that)
Personally I can't see how Russia gains from shooting down a defenceless commercial airliner deliberately.
Of course they didn't - if it was shot down it was probably a Russian-manufactured missile. Neither of these things really matter though. What does matter is that entirely innocent people seem to have been killed just for flying through Ukrainian airspace. Putin's little scuff becomes a terrible thing if it cuts Russia off.
Again the Western tendency to ascribe God like abilities to Putin. The rebels in Eastern Ukraine are their own creation, reflecting the will of the people of that region. If the US and hardliners had not ended the European-Russian ceasefire discussions then this might not have happened.
I await more details but I hope neither sides seek to make capital out of a tragic event.
What bullshit. The polls of Eastern Ukraine have shown large majorities want to remain part of Ukraine. Probably because they're Ukrainian.
(Of course there is a chance that Putin will use this to justify all sorts of nonsense - I rather dismiss that)
Personally I can't see how Russia gains from shooting down a defenceless commercial airliner deliberately.
Of course they didn't - if it was shot down it was probably a Russian-manufactured missile. Neither of these things really matter though. What does matter is that entirely innocent people seem to have been killed just for flying through Ukrainian airspace. Putin's little scuff becomes a terrible thing if it cuts Russia off.
Again the Western tendency to ascribe God like abilities to Putin. The rebels in Eastern Ukraine are their own creation, reflecting the will of the people of that region. If the US and hardliners had not ended the European-Russian ceasefire discussions then this might not have happened.
I await more details but I hope neither sides seek to make capital out of a tragic event.
What bullshit. The polls of Eastern Ukraine have shown large majorities want to remain part of Ukraine. Probably because they're Ukrainian.
In all the hooha over the Malaysian plane, has anyone stopped to think that the plane simply crashed. Malaysian planes have an an unfortunate habit of disappearing and crashing.
Not in a war zone.
How do you know? What makes you so sure it was shot down by Russia? Not only that, if it's a declared war zone, no civil airplane should be flying in it's space.
It's not a declared war zone. Some people like to support the Ruskies because they are in dispute with the EU.
If the Russians or their proxies shot down a passenger plane it's time for full on sanctions on all their exports. It would be pathetic if European powers don't react to this.
And what if it were the Ukrainians?
Either way an end to military activities should be the course.
Always interesting to see if the media spins this, the internet provides an alternative sources but depressing how easy it is to generate 'war hysteria' still.
(Of course there is a chance that Putin will use this to justify all sorts of nonsense - I rather dismiss that)
Personally I can't see how Russia gains from shooting down a defenceless commercial airliner deliberately.
Of course they didn't - if it was shot down it was probably a Russian-manufactured missile. Neither of these things really matter though. What does matter is that entirely innocent people seem to have been killed just for flying through Ukrainian airspace. Putin's little scuff becomes a terrible thing if it cuts Russia off.
Again the Western tendency to ascribe God like abilities to Putin. The rebels in Eastern Ukraine are their own creation, reflecting the will of the people of that region. If the US and hardliners had not ended the European-Russian ceasefire discussions then this might not have happened.
I await more details but I hope neither sides seek to make capital out of a tragic event.
What bullshit. The polls of Eastern Ukraine have shown large majorities want to remain part of Ukraine. Probably because they're Ukrainian.
I would have thought the Poles live in Western Ukraine?
Sky News aviation expert just advised that there is a NOTAM (Notice to airmen) in place for this region - a corridor in which advised not to fly. Not compulsory but nearly all airlines comply. But for some reason the MA pilot decided not to and took the shorter / cheaper routing. Oh dear.
I read this as an issue of pilot mental stability / reliability / judgment of both recent MA disasters as a contributory factor (or only factor of the first one). Not good for MA.
(Of course there is a chance that Putin will use this to justify all sorts of nonsense - I rather dismiss that)
Personally I can't see how Russia gains from shooting down a defenceless commercial airliner deliberately.
Of course they didn't - if it was shot down it was probably a Russian-manufactured missile. Neither of these things really matter though. What does matter is that entirely innocent people seem to have been killed just for flying through Ukrainian airspace. Putin's little scuff becomes a terrible thing if it cuts Russia off.
Again the Western tendency to ascribe God like abilities to Putin. The rebels in Eastern Ukraine are their own creation, reflecting the will of the people of that region. If the US and hardliners had not ended the European-Russian ceasefire discussions then this might not have happened.
I await more details but I hope neither sides seek to make capital out of a tragic event.
What bullshit. The polls of Eastern Ukraine have shown large majorities want to remain part of Ukraine. Probably because they're Ukrainian.
You can't conduct an opinion poll in a war zone.
Russian-speakers are a majority in Lugansk and Donetsk oblasts.
In all the hooha over the Malaysian plane, has anyone stopped to think that the plane simply crashed. Malaysian planes have an an unfortunate habit of disappearing and crashing.
I think it is a bit more than a hooha,I am deeply upset by the loss of life,and trivialising it by calling it a "hoohah", nuff said.
You are the one trivialising this incident in order to get a political point across.
No politics,just a bad taste use of words. How on earth has my comment anything to do with politics?
Andrey Davydov @FarEasterner 12m Spanish air controller who works in Kiev said 2 Ukraine military jets were following #MH17 minutes before aircrash pic.twitter.com/myXtec0kBa
(Of course there is a chance that Putin will use this to justify all sorts of nonsense - I rather dismiss that)
Personally I can't see how Russia gains from shooting down a defenceless commercial airliner deliberately.
Of course they didn't - if it was shot down it was probably a Russian-manufactured missile. Neither of these things really matter though. What does matter is that entirely innocent people seem to have been killed just for flying through Ukrainian airspace. Putin's little scuff becomes a terrible thing if it cuts Russia off.
Again the Western tendency to ascribe God like abilities to Putin. The rebels in Eastern Ukraine are their own creation, reflecting the will of the people of that region. If the US and hardliners had not ended the European-Russian ceasefire discussions then this might not have happened.
I await more details but I hope neither sides seek to make capital out of a tragic event.
What bullshit. The polls of Eastern Ukraine have shown large majorities want to remain part of Ukraine. Probably because they're Ukrainian.
I would have thought the Poles live in Western Ukraine?
They're not the Poles, Comrade, They are the Don't Knows.
If the Russians or their proxies shot down a passenger plane it's time for full on sanctions on all their exports. It would be pathetic if European powers don't react to this.
And what if it were the Ukrainians?
Either way an end to military activities should be the course.
Always interesting to see if the media spins this, the internet provides an alternative sources but depressing how easy it is to generate 'war hysteria' still.
Indeed. An an end to military activities and the dismantling of all non-state militias.
sean thomas knox @thomasknox 22m To lose one airline in mysterious probably violent circumstances may be considered a misfortune, to lose two.... etc #MalaysiaAirlines
I recall that about a month ago the Russian backed separatists had got hold of some ground-to-air missiles and brought down a Ukraine air force Antonov transport killing 20 or so Ukrainian servicemen.
Based on no info at all, it is my guess that they have tried to pull off a repeat performance and, tragically, picked the wrong target. Will be very, very bad for Russia if I'm right.
Doubtful, Patrick.
The plane was flying at 33,000 feet, well beyond the target range of separatist militia capabilities. It could only have been downed by a fighter plane or sophisticated air defence system only available to government militaries.
Some suggestion that former government tech is in the hands of the rebels - including the possibility of fighter jets from the Crimea(?)
Always the possibility of Russian tech in rebels hands as well.
It's a possibility but not probable.
The Russians are very careful about who gets their hands on the sophisticated stuff.
At this very early stage all signs are pointing to a Ukrainian military unit making a mistake.
But then early signs can be very wrong.
I can't imagine why a Ukrainian unit would make a mistake like this. As far as I know the separatists have no air power and so I don't see why the Ukranians would even be considering firing on aircraft.
I thought the pro-Russian militias had acquired anti-aircraft guns just a couple of weeks ago?
Indeed. I may not have been clear but I was saying that I do not believe the Ukrainian military would be responsible. Personally it seems to me that the only likely culprit is the separatists.
I recall that about a month ago the Russian backed separatists had got hold of some ground-to-air missiles and brought down a Ukraine air force Antonov transport killing 20 or so Ukrainian servicemen.
Based on no info at all, it is my guess that they have tried to pull off a repeat performance and, tragically, picked the wrong target. Will be very, very bad for Russia if I'm right.
Doubtful, Patrick.
The plane was flying at 33,000 feet, well beyond the target range of separatist militia capabilities. It could only have been downed by a fighter plane or sophisticated air defence system only available to government militaries.
Some suggestion that former government tech is in the hands of the rebels - including the possibility of fighter jets from the Crimea(?)
Always the possibility of Russian tech in rebels hands as well.
It's a possibility but not probable.
The Russians are very careful about who gets their hands on the sophisticated stuff.
At this very early stage all signs are pointing to a Ukrainian military unit making a mistake.
But then early signs can be very wrong.
I can't imagine why a Ukrainian unit would make a mistake like this. As far as I know the separatists have no air power and so I don't see why the Ukranians would even be considering firing on aircraft.
If it was Ukraine then it probably wasn't a mistake.
If the Russians or their proxies shot down a passenger plane it's time for full on sanctions on all their exports. It would be pathetic if European powers don't react to this.
And what if it were the Ukrainians?
Either way an end to military activities should be the course.
Always interesting to see if the media spins this, the internet provides an alternative sources but depressing how easy it is to generate 'war hysteria' still.
Indeed. An an end to military activities and the dismantling of all non-state militias.
(Of course there is a chance that Putin will use this to justify all sorts of nonsense - I rather dismiss that)
Personally I can't see how Russia gains from shooting down a defenceless commercial airliner deliberately.
Of course they didn't - if it was shot down it was probably a Russian-manufactured missile. Neither of these things really matter though. What does matter is that entirely innocent people seem to have been killed just for flying through Ukrainian airspace. Putin's little scuff becomes a terrible thing if it cuts Russia off.
Again the Western tendency to ascribe God like abilities to Putin. The rebels in Eastern Ukraine are their own creation, reflecting the will of the people of that region. If the US and hardliners had not ended the European-Russian ceasefire discussions then this might not have happened.
I await more details but I hope neither sides seek to make capital out of a tragic event.
No! I merely place at Putin's doorstep that which is Putin's. I completely agree that the motivation and actions of the rebels are beyond his control, but their arming isn't.
I'd look rather askance at any neighbour that had sufficient hardware in his garage that could shoot down jet airliners, as I'm sure would you. Putin has fed the fire and this is the result.
A UK Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) spokesman said: "The Ukrainian authorities are responsible for managing their airspace and the UK or other countries cannot enforce airspace restrictions in the area.
"However, the CAA has previously issued advice to UK airlines on operating in this area and following this incident, Eurocontrol (the European air traffic control body) has issued advice to airlines to plan routes that avoid the area."
ITV News has reported, according to sources at Malaysia Airlines, there were nine British passengers on board.
19:28: Flight recorders have been found at the crash site, Konstantin Knyrik, a spokesman for the pro-Russian rebels, has told Interfax news agency. Earlier reports quoted rebels as saying they intended to send the flight recorders to Moscow for checking.
Comments
On topic.
Why no UKIP or even Greenies on that PO chart? And don't tell me they forgot.
On balance, I guess the answer is yes, but I have read some unhappy stories about disabled people. If they had excluded the registered disabled, it would be a hell yes. The trouble is 'disability' covers a multitude of conditions.
Bloke on Sky essentially implied that Third World type countries were obviously ignoring it for financial reasons...
Ed. By an absolute mile. Has already saved us from a very ill judged Syrian intervention.
Next question.
Lloyd BlankFine (@Lloyds_Casino)
17/07/2014 17:09
Unbelievable: passenger posted just before takeoff: "if it dissapears, this is what it looks like". @zerohedge pic.twitter.com/ew0GWcZHKf
ITAR-TASS has chosen the last few minutes to release a long article on advances in Russian missile defence technology and the Kremlin's plans to deploy what they are calling an "anti-ballistic control arc along its border".
It contains this paragraph:
Voronezh-M is a unique radar station with a huge potential to build up combat capabilities which became another development in resolving strategic tasks which the Supreme Commander-in-Chief had set, Designer-General of the new radar station and the Russian domestic missile attack warning system Sergey Boyev said. It plays a key role in the missile attack warning system.
This radar station can detect, track down and classify modern and promising aerospace attack weapons and will operate for information support to resolve the tasks of deterrence of missile strikes on Russia and higher effectiveness of retaliatory actions of Russian armed forces. Jointly with space control satellites it can detect launches of strategic ballistic missiles, medium-and short-range missiles, as well as cruise missiles and different aircrafts starting from strategic bombers to fighters. Give targeting orders on these targets to decision-making posts.
Now why would the Russians release this information at this time?
Ukip poster believes in freedom of speech and freedom to go elsewhere if offended
A triumph for Miliband - peace is breaking out all over the region. Oh, what? It isn't? It is getting worse? Really? Oh.
Oh dear. Irony alert. Duh.
You were complaining about me.
THIS SPECIAL FEDERAL AVIATION REGULATION (SFAR) APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING PERSONS:........
3) ALL OPERATORS OF U.S. REGISTERED CIVIL AIRCRAFT, EXCEPT WHERE THE OPERATOR OF SUCH AIRCRAFT IS A FOREIGN AIR CARRIER.
I doubt many US carriers route over Ukraine in any case, that said, in the past MAS did have a bad name for carrying low fuel loads into LHR....
I have this fear of tim's grievance assuming Hillsborough proportions.
The Ukrainian adventures have gone from a scout-camp to something that really matters. Rich Russians fly in planes - quite often over Ukraine.
MOSCOW, July 17. /ITAR-TASS/. Ukraine’s armed forces dispatched the Buk anti-aircraft missile system battalion to the area of the city of Donetsk on Wednesday, a well-informed source said referring to the data recording system.
Another battalion of the same weapons is said to be in the process of embarkation in the city of Kharkiv, northwest of Donetsk, the source said adding that the aircraft at an altitude of over 10,000 meters could be shot down only with the weapons of the S-300 or Buk (Beech) missile systems.
In the meantime, militias of the self-proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Luhansk have said they do not possess armament systems of this class.
Militias of the self-proclaimed republics in Ukraine's east are not armed with the Buk anti-aircraft missile systems, the press service of the self-proclaimed Luhansk People's Republic said in comments on the Ukrainian authorities' statements about a possible involvement of the Donetsk and Luhansk militias to the downing of the Malaysian plane.
The release is posted below a photograph of the BUK anti-aircraft system with a 'helpful' explanatory caption:
The aircraft at an altitude of over 10,000 meters could be shot down only with the weapons of the S-300 or Buk (Beech) missile systems
*Dearlove notwithstanding.
Ie I have no interest in Scottish Indy debate, and when it is the topic of discussion, I just don't comment. I wouldn't be so self important to think that my mentioning that I think it's boring would matter
Anyway, off to LONDON, no less, now. Is the weather nice there too?
(Of course there is a chance that Putin will use this to justify all sorts of nonsense - I rather dismiss that)
It is Lympe-Pole policy to encourage constructive criticism. All feedback from fellow PBers, whether positive or negative, is warmly welcomed and submitted to our Communication Evaluation Task Force. The CEFT has taken careful note of your comments and placed them on file for future reference.
Personally I can't see how Russia gains from shooting down a defenceless commercial airliner deliberately.
Based on no info at all, it is my guess that they have tried to pull off a repeat performance and, tragically, picked the wrong target. Will be very, very bad for Russia if I'm right.
MOSCOW, July 17./ITAR-TASS/. Russian President Vladimir Putin tells Obama of necessity to immediately and unconditionally cease fire in southeastern Ukraine - Kremlin.
Putin tells Obama that US [? should this be Russia] will contribute to launch of peace negotiating process in Ukraine
The plane was flying at 33,000 feet, well beyond the target range of separatist militia capabilities. It could only have been downed by a fighter plane or sophisticated air defence system only available to government militaries.
Always the possibility of Russian tech in rebels hands as well.
Also is it common to fly over these areas where there are missiles flying about,albeit mainly low tech low altitude missiles.
I suspect all the airlines will now re route and cause chaos.
It is hard to imagine the sheer scale of the disaster and loss of life,I will have a sleepless night tonight.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buk_missile_system
It has been used by both Russian and Ukranian forces so it is not inconceivable that it could have been either captured by separatists from Ukraine or provided by the Russians.
The Russians are very careful about who gets their hands on the sophisticated stuff.
At this very early stage all signs are pointing to a Ukrainian military unit making a mistake.
But then early signs can be very wrong.
Its over, the russians have lost the war, they were losing it for quite some time now but today's events are a symbolic defeat.
And here are the reasons:
The doctorine of Slow War is a failure, its supposed to offer diplomatic and political benefits but militarily is a sure defeat, you are allowed to use only a fraction of your ground forces and no air force, while the enemy can use everything they can, as a result the russians are outnumbered 10-20 times and suffer 10 times the loses of the ukranians, plus the risk of a major accident like this one renders it useless.
Also contributing to the russian defeat is the mistake they did with their armament programs, the have only 550 tanks compared to 2700 that Ukraine has, though all modern T-90 compared with the 1960's-70's junk of the ukrainians, because they stopped production of the T-90 in 2011 and they retired the 4500 T-80 in back January and no new tanks are produced because they selved the T-95(they sold the design to the chinese though) in 2012 in favour of the combined fighter tank design which will be ready only in 2020.
Russia lost the war for the same reasons described by Arthur C. Clarke in 1951 in "Superiority":
Overdesign, underproduction and wrong war strategy.
http://gdb.rferl.org/5AB5FBC3-A24A-4584-9C75-98E2B18E5A38_w640_r1_s.jpg
I think a capture and misuse of a BUK system by separatists is highly unlikely, although it may be in the interests of various parties to promote this as a possibility.
http://www.camdennewjournal.com/news/2014/jul/long-serving-mp-frank-dobson-prepares-stand-down
The RFEL in the domain name is of course Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and can not be described as possessing the utmost neutrality.
I will await y0kel's comment, since he's probably the only one of us who isn't a merely amateur analyst.
http://www.globalfirepower.com/armor-tanks-total.asp
The logical thought is that both the Russian and Ukrainian governments have access to air traffic control information...the rebels don't, and if they had the equipment, they may have been firing semi blind.
Downthread you will see an ITAR-TASS release referring to claims by rebels that they had downed an Antonov (actually now claims that two Antonovs have been shot down in separate incidents) .
No official news source is yet connecting the AN-26 claim with that of the Malaysian passenger jet.
Antonovs are (I believe) the world's largest flying military cargo jets, so mistaking a commercial airliner for an Antonov is plausible.
Its their fault for not conducting the war within the rules of war.
The general panic as to why he's not responsible merely illustrates that he is.
I think the idea that Russia is in a worse position militarily than Ukraine is simply not true.
The Kremlinological signs are wrong.
This isn't a matter of pointing a finger at the side you believe to be the general aggressor in the Ukrainian-Russian conflict. It is a dispassionate view of how the ex-Soviet state apparatus (on both sides of the border) handles such issues in public.
It seems extraordinary that commercial airlines were flying over this zone in the first place, given that we know that surface-to-air missiles have been used here over the past few weeks.
The AN-26 is smaller, about 24 metres long with a wingspan about 29 metres. Compared to a Boeing 777-200ER with length 63.7 metres and wingspan 60.9 metres).
Not only that, if it's a declared war zone, no civil airplane should be flying in it's space.
Nikolaus von Twickel @niktwick 33m
13 years ago, a Ukrainian rocket downed a Russian liner over the Black Sea. Kiev accepted responsibility after 8 days
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/1359353/Ukraine-admits-it-shot-down-Russian-airliner.html …
Its all because they saved fuel by using the main air corridor for flights between europe and asia, commercial airlines took the risk and since nobody declared a no-flight zone over the battlefront no one took notice.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antonov_An-225_Mriya
At this stage all we can try to do is to speculate with applied reason and experience.
I would be extremely surprised if the Russian military or political authorities would allow any of 'their' paramilitary forces in Eastern Ukraine to gain control of a sophisticated missile defence system.
You may be right but I would consider it a long shot.
The french still say they had nothing to do with it.
I await more details but I hope neither sides seek to make capital out of a tragic event.
So that's where MH370 ended up!
[end bad taste]
I read this as an issue of pilot mental stability / reliability / judgment of both recent MA disasters as a contributory factor (or only factor of the first one). Not good for MA.
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/07/16/uk_data_watchdog_breached_data_law_says_uk_data_watchdog/
Either way an end to military activities should be the course.
Always interesting to see if the media spins this, the internet provides an alternative sources but depressing how easy it is to generate 'war hysteria' still.
Spanish air controller who works in Kiev said 2 Ukraine military jets were following #MH17 minutes before aircrash pic.twitter.com/myXtec0kBa
And with that, off for a few hours.
I shall leave Sir Roderick to solve the mystery.
Sky: MH17 was flying in a 'restricted' area all Western airlines avoid...
Updated map shows the intended route of #MH17 and crash site in Eastern Ukraine http://link.reuters.com/cav42w
It deviated a lot.
To lose one airline in mysterious probably violent circumstances may be considered a misfortune, to lose two.... etc #MalaysiaAirlines
I'd look rather askance at any neighbour that had sufficient hardware in his garage that could shoot down jet airliners, as I'm sure would you. Putin has fed the fire and this is the result.
"However, the CAA has previously issued advice to UK airlines on operating in this area and following this incident, Eurocontrol (the European air traffic control body) has issued advice to airlines to plan routes that avoid the area."
ITV News has reported, according to sources at Malaysia Airlines, there were nine British passengers on board.
http://www.shropshirestar.com/news/uk-news/2014/07/17/airliner-shot-down-over-ukraine/
BBC Blog