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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After Newark CON must be pretty confident of holding Cambs South – the next by-election in the pipeline?
I got on at 16/1 and since the price tightened to him being an odds-on favourite. Now the bookies are not taking bets for it’s been informally announced that Lansley’s the man and he has even spoken publicly about it.
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http://m.faz.net/aktuell/politik/europawahl/streit-um-eu-kommissionspraesidenten-cameron-kann-gegen-juncker-nur-verlieren-12978343.html
Back on topic, it seems like the new Commission doesn't get confirmed until October even if everything goes smoothly, so leaving the seat open definitely seems like an option unless the Tories think the momentum would be useful.
http://openeuropeblog.blogspot.jp/2014/05/what-happens-next-after-european.html?m=1
I hope you are not implying that an old Etonian would dump an old pal just to get him out of a job he is totally incompetent in, leaving the job up for grabs to maintain a momentum to return the Tory party back in 2015? Then again, the new job is totally within the gift of DC, I'm sure that those Europeans will be overjoyed and want DC's acolyte to lead them to the path of fiscal rectitude, just like wot he tried with the NHS.
Sir, I must ask you to desist from such speculation, at least until after the probable reshuffle this Friday (according to that font of information, the Independent: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/senior-tories-await-david-camerons-ruthless-reshuffle-9507176.html) when Cameron tries to show he really has a spine.
Is the by-election likely to be before or after 18 September?
- Faux outrage? - check
- Blatant hypocrisy? - check
- See-through ramping? - check
- Selective memory? - check
- Ignoring poll results I don't like? - check
- In-built rebuttal database? - check
- Full of my own importance? - check
- Rude to opponents? - check
- Annoyingly pedantic? - check
- Been blocked? - check
- Knows the gender of the poster Andrea? - check
Crikey, I fill all the criteria for being a perfect PB poster. Probably about the right time to call it a day.
It is a couple of weeks after the Conservative Party Conference and just under a month after the Scottish Referendum.
Should get a double bounce in the polls.
They want to achieve this but, unlike those nasty tories, they don't want to cut spending. Presumably they are going to increase taxes then, and very substantially.
He does not want to talk about the cuts that Danny has already signed up for to get rid of the present humongous deficit, the task that will completely dominate the next Parliament. He is presumably going to pretend this is just going to happen by some sort of magic.
He is going to play the same sort of games that Brown did claiming it is ok to borrow for investment, so long as that investment is promoting growth. So that will be alright then. That sort of rule and the so called golden rule worked out so well the last time.
There is a legitimate and important debate to be had about where the cuts pencilled in for the next 5 years are to fall. There is a debate to be had about the balance between taxes and cuts, particularly welfare cuts.
It is a major part of our problem that we spend so much on current spending making the funding of capital spending so difficult. But this looks like a lame and pretty dishonest contribution to that debate. It suggests easy answers even after 4 years of finding out just how hard government can be.
Would the Labour vote fall again? That would be fun so near an election. There must be a good chance UKIP could squeeze them.
http://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/News/European-elections-Results-from-the-Cambridge-region-in-full-20140526004249.htm
I wonder when that last happened? My suspicion would be that it would be at least 20 years ago. Manufacturing consistently fell as a share of the economy under the last government. We were told it was inevitable
Is this really a positive narrative?
The thought is simply that I'm probably not the only person to see the irony in Cameron making a big fuss about how broken the EU is and how it urgently needs some (vague, unspecified) reform, then proceeding to use the one EU appointment he gets to make to reward an old friend who turned out to be too incompetent to be trusted with a ministerial portfolio.
As long as the Juncker appointment goes through I guess the European Parliament will probably decide to suck it up, but Lansley would be wise not to resign his seat until everything's been voted through and he's confirmed his name is properly attached to the door of his new office. It would be embarrassing enough to get back from the parliamentary confirmation hearings and discover someone had pinned "BETTER OFF WITHOUT" to the back of your suit, without then realizing that you no longer have a job to go back to.
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
On the UK's next EU Commissioner, @trevor_kavanagh today: "I can reveal it will not be Commons Leader Andrew Lansley". @TheSunNewspaper
Talking of 'manufacturing'
"Work has started to excavate Britain's first new metal mine for more than 40 years.
The Hemerdon tungsten mine on the edge of Dartmoor will cost about £130m to dig and is expected to start producing the metal in 2015.
The mine, near Plympton, will exploit the world's fourth-largest deposit of tungsten.
Australian owners Wolf Minerals hope to produce about 3,000 tonnes of tungsten and tin per year.
Charlotte Wilkins from the company said it would employ local people....
Dr Robin Shail, from Camborne School of Mines, said at least 80% of world tungsten production took place in China, allowing it to dictate supply to the rest of the world.
He said: "This is a really significant moment for south-west England. We are seeing the development of a significant global producer.
"Hemerdon mine will probably be the third or fourth-biggest tungsten mine in the world"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-27754535
Have the Greens and LDs been protesting about this new mine?
Only the Lib Dems can beat the Tories here - could we see the numbers reversed in GE2015?
If, like me, you're bored stiff by the Scottish referendum, you'd best avoid Sky news today. Wall to wall coverage with a silly sofa.
The current UKIP ppc is Lister Wilson. He was a tory local councillor, who has tried 2/3 times to win his seat back under a UKIP badge, each time failing narrowly. He is a hard working, able and earnest school-master. But as an inspirational speaker? Even his mum wouldn't give him many out of 10.
The previous LD parliamentary candidate was Sebastian Kindersley, who was leader of the LDs on the council. He was concientious, and well respected and popular across party lines. He has said he won't be standing next time. I don't know the name of the local LD ppc, or even if one has already been selected. His profile is non-existent.
I would be surprised if there were any doubt about a Tory win.
twitter.com/erikbryn/status/475761746196844544/photo/1
I would guess you would see a comfortable Conservative hold, and a tussle for second place between the LibDems and UKIP (provided the former bothered to turn up and fight).
Maybe. Labour might tactically vote for the Lib Dems. It does look reasonable for the blues, but they might be tempting fate.
F1: after a very exciting race, why not relax with the cunning insights only available at the enormo-haddock blog?
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/06/canada-post-race-analysis.html
Edited extra bit: Perez given 5 place grid penalty for the crash:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/27758096
http://www.unitetheunion.org/how-we-help/listofregions/londonandeastern/londoneasternnews/dpw-opens-gateway-to-unite/
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/datasets-and-tables/data-selector.html?cdid=K2JE&dataset=diop&table-id=H1
Osborne then presided over two more manufacturing recessions.
Also heard that Perez's brake problems had been resolved (it was a brake-by-wire issue that the team thought had been resolved). However, he did brake very early (Massa braked 5m earlier than his previous lap at the corner they crashed) and the stewards believe Perez moved illegally, hence the penalty.
Also hard to disagree with Rob Smedley's suggestion that it was not very clever to let a driver stay out if they had such a potential brake problem.
Edited extra bit: Newey's leaving. Sounds like he'll design the 2015 car and from then on it'll be up to others. I think he'll have an advisory role after 2015.
For independence?
FFS fine to pick one party vs another but for the freedom of your country from the shackles of the Imperial Overlord (or not, as she was in fact a "no" supporter)?
God help us if it comes down to tax revenue projections under each scenario.
I would respect a view (which tbf is closer to the Yes approach) which said:
"Pensions? Debt? Tax? Who the f*** cares? We want independence."
The obvious answer is to round up all the Labour supporters, exterminate them and use their savings to pay off the national debt. After all, neither Her Gracious Majesty nor John Loony (if I have that the right way round, it's hard to tell) would be in the least inconvenienced.
I'm beginning to feel the same as SD [7.03am]. Time for OGH to put the site up for sale?
@skynewsniall: As I've just reported, senior sources within Scottish govt say Obama comments on #indyref came after direct request from London
This also ties into the Juncker thing: I didn't see it but on Marr apparently Hague was soft-pedalling the anti-Juncker angle and saying how there were various different jobs and they needed to ensure a proper balance; Since there's no way to split the difference between giving the Commission job to the candidate with most votes and giving it to someone else, and since the antis don't seem to have a blocking minority so the latter isn't possible, isn't the obvious way to square the circle to give another big job to a big British Tory?
Chances of a Labour win here - absolute zero.
Feel free to equate the Coalition Tory-LD Government with the English nation, and thereby get your Scots = racist conclusion. Not all of us follow that syllogism.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/tomrogan/100275322/if-the-gop-fails-to-pick-up-minority-votes-hillary-clinton-will-stroll-into-the-white-house/
They already have taken Corby - directly from the Tories.
Doh!
- reducing debt as a percentage of GDP during times of economic growth
- running a balanced budget over an economic cycle, except for borrowing for capital spending.
That's paraphrased from the Guardian. The Daily Mail is its usual intemperate self.
First suggestion of Westminster influence was from (I presume English) FT chief foreign affairs commentator Gideon Rachman. Perhaps he's got a Scottish granny or something.
Gideon Rachman @gideonrachman · Jun 5
Those remarks from Obama on Scotland were not spontaneous. Came after an informal request from No 10.
No need for a by election.
This post has nothing to do with the fact that I have a betting slip with Michael Howard's as our next man in Bruxelles at 25/1.
There is a second, implicit message in David Cameron's swift put-down of his two colleagues. It is that he does not want to be fought over as if he were a warm corpse. He is not dead yet, and does not take kindly to infighting that suggests senior Conservatives are already jockeying for position post-Cameron.
It looks defeatist, as it implies they agree with the bookies that the Tories are unlikely to win the general election.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jun/08/michael-gove-theresa-may-spat-david-cameron?CMP=twt_gu
For Mr Kendrick's information Sebastien Kindersley would be the Lib Dem candidate should there be a by election .
The parliamentary constituency includes only part of South Cambs DC and one ( Lib Dem ) ward of Cambridge City council Queens Edith .
Approx results for last local elections ( mostly this May ) held in the wards making up the seat are
Con 14,300
LD 10,000
Lab 5,700
UKIP 2,800
Green 2,000
Inds 2,800
The Independent votes would probably split 1,200 Con 800 Lib Dem 800 Other parties
http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/06/09/is-lansley-our-next-eu-commissioner-latest-betting-reaction/
Clegg's proposals are just more of the same. It's Coalition II: The Kickening.
The idea that there is a predictable economic cycle (or that politicians would recognise and act on it, should that mythical creature actually exist) is risible - exhibit A being CoE Brown.
That's not a nice thing to say about me.
Betfair reckons Hamilton's just over evens, and Rosberg's about 2.22. I think that's more or less right.
Perhaps people should swear (on their preferred form of Scripture) that they believe in debt reduction before they're admitted to the electoral roll...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/10885955/David-Cameron-is-ruining-case-for-Scotland-to-remain-part-of-UK-Gordon-Brown-warns.html
I have just in the last week been caught speeding and face 3 points on my license.
I'd slightly take issue with your view on Coalition II: The Kickening. It should be Coalition II: Clegg Harder.
Clegg's interest is retaining the role of DPM. His desire to join the euro and Mystic Clegg view of economic cycles does suggest his economic views are as mad as his EU-philia.
Mr. Jim, indeed. Still, Huhne talks so much he's bound, by the law of averages, to accidentally not be wrong at some point.
I did another horrible thing to the English language last night.
I called a zebra a zee-bra.
This part was particularly startling:
"The UK was the clear leader in attracting projects in the knowledge industries. Software investments surged by more than 50pc, with Britain securing more than a third of all projects in what is now Europe’s largest FDI sector."
That is a third of all of the foreign direct investments in the whole of Europe were in the UK. Of course building some of the indigenous industry would not be a bad thing either.
I went to a really interesting lecture a week past Saturday by Chris van Der Kuyl who runs 4Js (the traditional 3 Js in Dundee being Jute Jam and Journalism), the 4th J in Dundee now being joysticks apparently. It is astonishing how fast the economy is changing and how frivolities have become serious business (apologies to Max in advance).
One small example. A very young man called Stumpie posts videos of himself playing games on Youtube explaining what you can do and the options. His videos get about 180m views a month (roughly the same number of views as the BBC) which in turn earns him about $180K a month. I am waiting for the day my son can pay his own school fees.
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2014/06/09/media-coverage-in-germany-and-the-uk-shows-why-both-countries-have-radically-different-views-over-who-should-be-the-next-commission-president/
Let me take 'em in reverse order. I don't think the electoral roll featured in any of my posts; I have merely ventured my opinion.
Secondly, I know more about NHS palliative care than I'd like, but it's been excellent thus far, and I am truly thankful.
Not withstanding my admiration, if we look ahead to 2015, the projected spends (in billions) are (out of c. £728 billion of public spending):
Pensions - 148
Health - 132
Welfare - 113
Education - 88
Debt - 59
That's around 75% of the total projected expenditure. It's harder to predict what proportion of that £728 billion will be borrowed - it was north of £100 billion last year. Whatever your political views, this can't continue ad nauseam.
Sooner or later, we're going to have to cut or ration things that people REALLY care about, whether that's pensions, welfare, health or education. I believe the social scientists call this a 'wicked problem'.
Note, I don't rule out tax increases; we're going to need those too. How they're implemented is probably another wicked problem.
you still on for a beer on thursday if sunil can make it ?
A font is a basin found in a church that is used for christenings. A fount is a fountain or spring.
Don't get me started on the constant mispelling of loth (meaning reluctant) as loathe (meaningless when misused for 'loth').