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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Guest Slot: All publicity is good publicity? Maybe not when Ed Miliband is on TV
UK General Elections, we are told have become increasingly presidential. And how each party leader comes across, particularly on Television, is important. Ed Miliband has faced criticism for his style and communication skills – It’s probably fair to comment that he’s not a natural TV performer. But what if it’s slightly worse than that?
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With/without Farage?
Given that 40:40 would imply no effect, 46:34 may not be significant.
Plus, are you making the same error as the people who launched the Challenger to disaster? What happens to the Labour vote when Ed doesn't appear on TV?
How do you estimate the Labour daily share, btw? A potential can of worms in itself...
In any case all that matters is what 2010 LD>LAB switchers think of EdM and the evidence there is positive for LAB as I've written about before. They are more enthusiastic about him than other LAB voters.
Now, if we looked at the effect on the YES vote every time Osborne intervened in the referendum campaign...
That said, you might be able to do something with the general approach if you threw a lot more data at it. First you obviously need some actual data about TV appearances rather than this rather weak proxy for it, then you want to compile the trends for a bunch of different leaders all over the world and see if they turn out to be predictive of anything.
What is true is that the Council aren't obliged to pick Juncker and the parliament aren't obliged to accept anybody else, so if there's a really determined blocking minority of member states in the Council they could just ping the thing backwards and forwards for the next five years with the Council making various non-Juncker suggestions and Parliament rejecting them and telling them to try again. The way these things work they'd presumably eventually come up with some kind of face-saving compromise, like Juncker getting the job but only on condition that he wears a Helle Thorning-Schmidt Halloween mask at press conferences.
Hmmm...
- Alex Salmond warns Scotland will dissolve Union if Tory Cameron looks set to retain top job
The Mail headline meets with rounds of applause from PB Tories. But the entire concept of the fictional second headline would meet with howls of derision from the same people.
They want their cake and eat it.
http://order-order.com/2014/03/19/ed-miliband-prime-minister-in-waiting/
http://order-order.com/2014/05/28/watch-ed-miliband-meets-the-public-round-2/
I'm very surprised at the suggestion below that the Tories think EdM would do better in a TV debate. Is there actually any data to back that? I'd have thought the opposite was true. Ed< on TV seems to be a liability for EdM, which is a big problem for them. He won't win: Michael Howard, IDS, Kinnock all good examples of people the British wouldn't put in No.10 Downing Street.
The Tories' approach is a world away from 1997 when the party staunchly opposed devolution.
It is also a significant departure for Ms Davidson, who campaigned to be the Scottish party leader on a platform of drawing a "line in the sand" on more powers.
During a recent visit to Scotland, David Cameron made it clear that a No vote was not a vote for the status quo but one that would lead to enhanced devolution, echoing Labour and the LibDems.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/u-turn-as-tory-leader-unveils-devo-max-plan.24376773
I'm sure that this U-turn is enthusiastically welcomed by all true Unionists. Tee hee.
If YES is a vote for independence and NO is a vote for Devo-max, what do supporters of:
a) the status quo
... and
b) abolition of the Scottish Parliament
do?
Abstain? Spoil their ballot paper? March on Holyrood? March on Westminster? Send battleships up the Forth at dawn?
Kinnock got 34.4%. If Ed Miliband can get that, he will probably become Prime Minister. He may even be able to make it to No. 10 on Michael Howard's 32.4%.
That said, how big is the anti-devolution vote in Scotland? And won't they be motivated enough by the independence issue that they'll turn out regardless?
I tried myself. What I did first was to predict the next poll result from earlier data the best I could using a simple model. I attached 25% weight to previous poll result and 75% weight to the average of the previous 10 polls (this seems to fit data).
Then I assumed the the actual result would vary around my predicted value according to small normal distribution with mean 0 and variance 1.5 (computed from the data).
Therefore the sum of the 'deltas' for a randomly selected 80 observations should therefore have a normal distribution with mean 0 and variance 1.5*80=120.
The null hypothesis is that there is no immediate correlation between Ed's appearances and Labor vote share. In order to reject the null at the (admittedly arbitrary) 95% level it would need the 'deltas' to total +/- 21.
I couldn't get near this number so I have to conclude nothing.
Nevertheless, whether it is re-run or not, and whether it happens in Qatar or somewhere else, by the time we get to 2022 we will all be 8 years closer to the chasm of clams and our eventual fate at the behest of the orange sun which will one day engulf us all as we crawl on our knees towards our doom. Equestrian cement! Equestrian cement! You're in my telescope...
The "status quo" (No independence thank you and No devomax thank you; let's just keep things exactly as they are, Barnett and West Lothian warts and all) vote will be much larger. I would guess around 20%.
Whenever pollsters have asked (and I don't think they have done so for a good while), respondents tend to plump for:
1) Devomax
2) Independence
3) Status quo
4) Abolition of the Scottish Parliament
... in that order.
Of course, neither the Status Quo nor Abolition of Parliament are on the actual ballot paper in September. Thanks to Mr D Cameron.
Allegedly devomax IS on the ballot paper (where it is called 'NO'), but what exactly devomax actually means is profoundly unclear. It depends who you ask.
Scarey or what?
If you need proof of Fat Steve's correlation, just ask your friends/colleagues.
If you had written "in terms of winning the election, the 2010 LD>Lab switchers are the most important" that is disputable, but reasonable.
For someone aspiring to lead our great nation, they need to look higher and farther than the grubby business of winning votes. They need a mandate to govern - and that means trying to develop a cohesive story for the whole nation.
*All voters* matter, not just the group that you belong to.
Cameron is elected by the whole of the UK, although some sub-regions have a great affinity for what he offers. Juncker is selected as a result of horse trading. If the voice of one of the major members of the club is completely ignored* there is a basis for saying that that member should consider taking their ball home.
* And no, Scotland's voice is not completely ignored. I don't know precisely what the Coalition parties got in 2010, but it was around 35-40% I believe.
And couldn't you say exactly the same thing about independence?
Meanwhile Labour has leaked an intention to raise the most business unfriendly, job impeding tax of all, National Insurance. It should be getting abolished not increased and we should have 1 income tax set over several bands not several taxes almost all of which no-one understands.
I would love to know what your definition of "normal" is!!!
But if I was a Labour supporter no doubt I would think otherwise. I think. Really?
Polling is subject to margins of error and the differences talked about in this piece fall within them. I would really like to believe that the vacuous flat earth nonsense Ed puts forward would be seen through by the majority but I don't think this piece proves it.
We also sometimes have some interesting off-topic tangents about what people should do because it's the right thing to do, regardless of whether they want to win, but these are the ones that need the rider spelling that out if it's ambiguous.
Yup, you've turned up to carp.
1 - A correlation between Stories on Sky TV and stories on the Sky website. Is there one?
2 - That Sky TV News has a significant and the major impact on public opinion. Does it?
(PoliticaHome)
That man, Cammo, couldn't threaten a sparrow with a blunderbus. Funny, as soon as he is called out, he waves the white flag. And this is the man that wants to conduct negotiations for reforming the EU.
Interesting article, Mr. Steve. I think it can cut both ways. Miliband's seen as a weirdo in many quarters, so the Conservatives are quite content with that. If he appears in debates and doesn't fall flat on his face it'll be seen as a good result.
"Methane is a hydrocarbon, a mixture of hydrogen and carbon."
Other things largely made up of long chain molecules of hydrogen and carbon atoms are:
Potatos
Rice
Bread
and most importantly...
Beer
To be fair, there have been many observed cases of blindness resulting from excessive consumption of the latter. It has also been linked to unplanned DNA replication.
Hacker: Don't we ever get our own way with the French?
Sir Humphrey: Well, sometimes.
Hacker: When was the last time?
Sir Humphrey: Battle of Waterloo, 1815.
Humans are incapable of cloning naturally.
Mr. Pubgoer, I quite agree. The EU is set up on the basis of ever-closer union and packed with federalists.
Well done for putting your head above the a parapet, but you've taken on something with confounding factors that you can't control. A little like AGW research.
It's analagous to checking if a penny is crooked by tossing it many times (assuming a binomial). Unfortunately,, you can't really tell whether it's landing on its head or its tail.
Still, you have laid out your methodology well.
Subjectively, I suspect you're right, and I have the impression that many Labour supporters do too.
Thank you very much :-)
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/benedictbrogan/100274299/blair-and-merkel-leave-cameron-in-a-perilous-position/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=uHp6wCc-TSc
But it's more the attitude of mind. The LD10 are important, but they are not the only people in the country.
If so, that suggests that the German government is probably prepared to drop him as a candidate.
What are we expecting from today's Ashcroft poll in Newark? Although Labour is trying a bit harder, it's clear that the high-profile action is with the armies of Tory and UKIP canvassers. My guess is that the Tories will still be ahead, by a modest margin - something like 36-33-22. But i've no special insight - mainly going by what I read here.
1 day.
.............................................................
The "JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will determine the course of the general election will be published exclusively on PB at 9:00am on Tuesday 3rd June.
There will be one seat from each of Wales and Scotland, and one English Ukip target. the remaining ten will be marginals from English regions thus :
Two each from the North, Midlands and East, three from London and the South and one from the West.
Thanks to PBers who made suggestions - Plenty were viable but in the end didn't make the cut.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-27656628
Without measures to correct the democratic deficit in England this will just increase tensions and help those who want independence.
Re: World Cup - Qatar, Tower Hamlets, Postal Voting, etc etc.
I am really astounded that people are so surprised (or are expressing surprise) at the reported fraud/corruption.
They should know that in many African, Asian and other countries, political and financial corruption is the way of life and people in power in those countries will often exploit it for personal gain.
So it is no surprise when some immigrants from those countries bring that culture with them - it is just that some of our politicians keep a blind eye - either for the votes it brings or that there are just very naive.
I personally would think people notice it. All you need to do is look at a payslip and see how much gets deducted each month, I do, and it's rather scary how much goes...
15-50% is the vague figure that fact check give... The 75% was from EU commissioner but she was talking about EU law
;-)
Ukip is on the pitch, they think it's all over. It is now - it's 29 millions Bulgarians.
We need an English Parliament. Failing that, English votes for English laws.