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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Guest Slot: All publicity is good publicity? Maybe not when

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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,748

    Mr. Eagles, to be fair, there was some time spent mocking Ed Miliband's epic tussle with a bacon sandwich.

    A gypsy put a curse on the Miliband family, no one from that family has a happy ending when food in public is involved.
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    volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    "First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, and then you win" - Mahatma Gandhi
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    surbiton said:

    Glen Oglaza ‏@glenoglaza1 3m
    #worldcup In Qatar, swearing, singing & wearing shorts is banned: Going to be a lot of football fans in Qatari prisons in 2022 !

    Miraculously, the law will be changed for 2 months.

    Qatar is copying Dubai in every possible way. I doubt these restrictions are in place even today. Qatar , by ME standards, is quite open. Al-Jazeera is financed by the Emir of Qatar and is only "free" media output in the Middle East.

    Of course, everything is relative.
    "By Middle Eastern standards". It's the equivalent of saying "He's quite a tolerant fellow, as Nazis go."
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,748

    Mr. Eagles, to be fair, there was some time spent mocking Ed Miliband's epic tussle with a bacon sandwich.

    A gypsy put a curse on the Miliband family, no one from that family has a happy ending when food in public is involved.
    Ack, I now need mind bleach.

    Seriously, happy ending?
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited June 2014
    JonathanD said:

    AveryLP said:

    Much better news from the UK

    UK Manufacturing May PMI falls but marginally and remains comfortably in positive territory and well above its EU counterparts:

    • Manufacturing PMI at 57.0 in May, down slightly from 57.3 in April

    • Strong growth of output, new orders and new export business maintained.

    • Broad-based jobs creation.


    Thank St. George the UK is not being run by HollMilibande!


    Interesting to see mortgage approvals down, M4 still negative and net lending to individuals reduce too. Takes some of the pressure of interest rate increases. My impression of Carney is that he prefers to talk up the liklihood of something happen, in order to reduce the chance that he actually has to do it.
    Avery did not have access to GDP and PMI figures in 2010 - 2013. He certainly did not share them with us then.

    So, UK must have broken all previous GDP records by now ? Virtually every other country has. Or, are we still below 2008 ? Manufacturing ?

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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,044
    edited June 2014

    Glen Oglaza ‏@glenoglaza1 3m
    #worldcup In Qatar, swearing, singing & wearing shorts is banned: Going to be a lot of football fans in Qatari prisons in 2022 !

    No alcohol either.

    Holding a World Cup in Qatar has to be the silliest idea since Hitler thought declaring war on America whilst simultaneously fighting the UK and The Soviet Union was a good idea.
    Are they still trying to get it moved to winter? Or what passes for winter in the gulf


    Yeah, either Nov/Dec 2022 or Jan 2023
    Theresa May will be 5 points ahead in the polls, in midterm, after the disastrous Mili-Cable coalition Gov't.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,153
    Socrates said:

    Carnyx said:

    Socrates said:

    Mr. Jim, Scotland's going to get its own income taxes. If they undercut England and we have Scottish MPs voting on English Budgets, how is that anything but indefensible?

    We need an English Parliament. Failing that, English votes for English laws.

    It would be utterly absurd to allow MPs for Scottish seats to vote on the budget of the rest of the UK if they're setting their own taxes separately.
    Except that under the Barnett Formula English MPs do set the budget for Scotland. So where is the problem?

    Seriously: nobody on this site has yet been able to answer my question: does the West Lothian Question meaningfully exist? Any vote on the English budget for item X is legitimate for Scots MPs, because it also affects the Scottish budget under the Barnett formula.

    The corollary is that English MPs (effectively) determine the overall budget and therefore to a great extent the spending [edit: delete priorities and replace with "levels, and therefore to some extent priorities"] of Scotland.

    I really cannot see how one can claim that English MPs are somehow downgraded.

    You must be knowingly obtuse here if you really don't see how, for example, bringing in tuition fees in for England and Wales on the back of Scottish MPs, whose constituents aren't really affected by it, is a distortion. Yes, there may be some tiny ripple effects on things like the Barnett formula, but then it's that formula that needs to be readdressed. It's a travesty of a formula anyway, seeing that it gives Scotland far more money than other needy parts of the UK, like Wales and Cornwall.
    I would suggest that is not a good example. The student grants issue would have led ultimately to the Scottish Government having to find every penny of that from other spending, and cut accordingly elsewhere. (And look who's seeming fiscally more sensible now vis a vis Mr Willetts.) In that particular vote, IIRC, the SNP nevertheless abstained and it was Labour MPs who voted. Can you come up with a clearer example?







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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,044

    "First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, and then you win" - Mahatma Gandhi

    Certainly seems that way for the kippers right now.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,033
    Mr. Carnyx, pish, tosh, balderdash and piffle!

    Englishmen are charged to go to Scottish universities, whereas Frenchmen and Germans are not. This occurs because of Scottish votes cast on a matter which did not affect Scotland (and the vile SNP want to maintain this anti-English approach even if independence is achieved).
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,748
    New Thread
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,275
    Socrates said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Socrates said:

    David Wyllie ‏@journodave · 4 mins
    Major announcement expected out of Spain in the next few minutes, Spanish PM making an urgent statement. Content not yet confirmed.

    Hmmmm hope they're not invading the rock....

    Capital controls?
    Nah: Spanish banks are now among the best capitalised in Europe, and one of the rating agencies just upgraded Spain today. Spain now borrows at the lowest rates in its history (lower than pre-Eurozone crisis).
    I know it's unlikely, but just a thought. And those borrowing rates would change pretty quickly if Spain announced it was leaving the Eurozone. Which it should do, lest it wait a quarter century to get back to decent employment levels.

    PS. I'm amused someone as knowledgeable as yourself still think the views of the rating agencies are worth anything at all.
    I agree with you re ratings agencies.

    Just for your amusement, here is the data from the OECD on the Spanish Employment to Population ratio: i.e. the proportion of Spaniards above the age of 15 who are employed:
    1991	42.40000153
    1992 41.09999847
    1993 38.90000153
    1994 38.29999924
    1995 38.90000153
    1996 39.5
    1997 40.40000153
    1998 41.70000076
    1999 43.70000076
    2000 45.5
    2001 46.70000076
    2002 47.20000076
    2003 48.29999924
    2004 49.5
    2005 51.40000153
    2006 52.59999847
    2007 53.20000076
    2008 52.09999847
    2009 48.29999924
    2010 47.20000076
    2011 46.40000153
    2012 44.40000153
    2013 44.2
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    One of the Queen's formative moments was her father's accession following the abdication crisis. Given the pain that caused her family and the nation at the time, I regard it as most unlikely that she would follow her uncle's example.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    JackW said:

    MikeK said:

    Lets have a new thread.
    Now King Juan Carlos has abdicated, it would be a good idea for our Queen Elizabeth to follow suit and give a chance to the ageing Charles before he withers on the vine. But like her ministers she has her bum stuck firmly on her seat (throne).

    Treachery from a kipper following the EU monarchies and not the true British nature of monarchy.

    Burn the Ukip traitor !!!!!!!!!!!

    Nothing personal you understand.
    Oh, I quite understand my Lord of the Hillocks. Mind you I didn't call for a Republic - I'm giving ageing Charlie a chance, so you must temper your outrage.
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    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    Twitter
    Robert Peston ‏@Peston 1m
    About to be dropped into big tank in dummy helicopter, as part of helicopter crash training in Aberdeen, prior to flying to oil rig. Cripes
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,153

    Mr. Carnyx, pish, tosh, balderdash and piffle!

    Englishmen are charged to go to Scottish universities, whereas Frenchmen and Germans are not. This occurs because of Scottish votes cast on a matter which did not affect Scotland (and the vile SNP want to maintain this anti-English approach even if independence is achieved).

    You would seem to be misapprised of the facts. English persons are not charged for being such. Residents in the UK outside Scotland are charged, irrespective of their natal place. It is the same approach as England, Wales, and NI variously always had to student grants from other parts of the UK for decades. It was EWNI which changed - not the Scots. The Scots Gmt did not change a thing.

    On effects of indepedence - that is specifically to stop swamping Scottish universities given the asymmetry of fees and of examination systems/school leaving age/entrance requirements. Which is another issue entirely (and related to that being seen in Germany vs Austria at the moment). But it is only relevant if both EWNI and Scotland are in the EU.


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    FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916

    From the Guardian:

    'Friends of the Earth has accused the chancellor George Osborne of exacerbating climate change by handing out £2.7bn of incentives to energy companies to fuel North Sea oil and gas production. FoE said he was too focused on propping up oil companies at the expense of making renewable energy cheaper.

    David Powell, economics campaigner at FoE, said: "The chancellor falls over himself to claim renewable energy is expensive, while bending over backwards to offer oil barons massive tax breaks.'

    Vote Blue, Go Green. Yeah, right!

    and how do FoE propose to make renewable energy cheaper?
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited June 2014
    Carnyx said:


    Seriously: nobody on this site has yet been able to answer my question: does the West Lothian Question meaningfully exist? Any vote on the English budget for item X is legitimate for Scots MPs, because it also affects the Scottish budget under the Barnett formula.

    That is a most ridiculous argument, so obviously bogus that it is remarkable that anyone makes it with a straight face. Sure, on the overall budget there is a tiny second-order effect on Scotland from the Barnett formula, but, inasmuch as that is so, it would give a reason for Scottish MPs to vote only on the budget, not at all on (for example) the details of NHS England reorganisation, free schools or other non-Scottish education policies.

    The simple fact is that Labour want their unfair advantage of having not only smaller constituencies in Labour voting areas, but also their block vote of Scottish Labour MPs interfering in English and Welsh affairs which don't affect their constituents at all. So it is hardly surprising that Labour don't want to correct this outrageous anomaly. The Barnett formula argument is just an excuse, and an exceptionally feeble one at that.
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited June 2014
    surbiton said:

    JonathanD said:

    AveryLP said:

    Much better news from the UK

    UK Manufacturing May PMI falls but marginally and remains comfortably in positive territory and well above its EU counterparts:

    • Manufacturing PMI at 57.0 in May, down slightly from 57.3 in April

    • Strong growth of output, new orders and new export business maintained.

    • Broad-based jobs creation.


    Thank St. George the UK is not being run by HollMilibande!


    Interesting to see mortgage approvals down, M4 still negative and net lending to individuals reduce too. Takes some of the pressure of interest rate increases. My impression of Carney is that he prefers to talk up the liklihood of something happen, in order to reduce the chance that he actually has to do it.
    Avery did not have access to GDP and PMI figures in 2010 - 2013. He certainly did not share them with us then.

    So, UK must have broken all previous GDP records by now ? Virtually every other country has. Or, are we still below 2008 ? Manufacturing ?

    Surby tells such Dreadful Lies,
    It makes one Gasp and Stretch one’s Eyes


    Here is a repeat of the yellow boxes I posted in reply to your forlorn request:
    ==========================================================
    FRANCE vs. UK
    ---------------------------------------------------------------
    GDP Growth
    Expenditure method
    Quarter on Previous Quarter
    Percentage Growth
    Source: OECD Database, 28 May 2014
    ---------------------------------------------------------------
    --------2012-------- --------2013-------- 2014
    Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
    UK 0.01 -0.39 0.77 -0.21 0.36 0.76 0.84 0.68 0.81
    France 0.63 -0.57 -0.11 -0.08 0.38 0.24 -0.10 0.24 -0.39
    ===============================================================
    ======================================================
    --------2010-------- --------2011--------
    Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
    UK 0.5 1.0 0.4 -0.2 0.5 0.1 0.6 -0.1
    France 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 1.1 -0.1 0.2 0.2
    ======================================================
    Point, Game, Set, Match and - soon to be - Tournament to St. George.


  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,241

    Mr. Jim, Scotland's going to get its own income taxes. If they undercut England and we have Scottish MPs voting on English Budgets, how is that anything but indefensible?

    We need an English Parliament. Failing that, English votes for English laws.

    MD, don't be silly , we are never going to get our own income tax powers. All that will happen is they will give an illusion and cut the budget , leaving us high and dry. It is purely a sop to try and fool some people and hope that if we are stupid enough to vote NO they can then get rid of Barnett and really shaft us big time.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,241
    ToryJim said:

    Mr Dancer the very very last thing we need is an English Parliament. It would be exceptionally costly plus you'd end up with an English government and First Minister presumably but given the size and economic power of England it would massively destabilise the system.

    Doh, you mean exactly what we have at present
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,241
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Socrates said:

    Mr. Jim, Scotland's going to get its own income taxes. If they undercut England and we have Scottish MPs voting on English Budgets, how is that anything but indefensible?

    We need an English Parliament. Failing that, English votes for English laws.

    It would be utterly absurd to allow MPs for Scottish seats to vote on the budget of the rest of the UK if they're setting their own taxes separately.
    Except that under the Barnett Formula English MPs do set the budget for Scotland. So where is the problem?

    Seriously: nobody on this site has yet been able to answer my question: does the West Lothian Question meaningfully exist? Any vote on the English budget for item X is legitimate for Scots MPs, because it also affects the Scottish budget under the Barnett formula.

    The corollary is that English MPs (effectively) determine the overall budget and therefore to a great extent the spending [edit: delete priorities and replace with "levels, and therefore to some extent priorities"] of Scotland.

    I really cannot see how one can claim that English MPs are somehow downgraded.

    That's true loosely, but only the subject of the budget, and Scottish MPs will vote on issues which go way beyond the budget of spending.
    Can you give a specific example or two please? Bearing in mind that policy changes will often have budget issues. I'd be genuinely interested to know more on your view on this. As I understand it, only SNP MPs abstain on such instances - Labour and LDs being good unionists don't have a self-denying ordinance and there aren't enough Tory MPs to worry about for this purpose (1 not making enough of a difference most of the time).

    Carnyx, you will be waiting a while
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,241
    Socrates said:

    Carnyx said:

    Socrates said:

    Mr. Jim, Scotland's going to get its own income taxes. If they undercut England and we have Scottish MPs voting on English Budgets, how is that anything but indefensible?

    We need an English Parliament. Failing that, English votes for English laws.

    It would be utterly absurd to allow MPs for Scottish seats to vote on the budget of the rest of the UK if they're setting their own taxes separately.
    Except that under the Barnett Formula English MPs do set the budget for Scotland. So where is the problem?

    Seriously: nobody on this site has yet been able to answer my question: does the West Lothian Question meaningfully exist? Any vote on the English budget for item X is legitimate for Scots MPs, because it also affects the Scottish budget under the Barnett formula.

    The corollary is that English MPs (effectively) determine the overall budget and therefore to a great extent the spending [edit: delete priorities and replace with "levels, and therefore to some extent priorities"] of Scotland.

    I really cannot see how one can claim that English MPs are somehow downgraded.

    You must be knowingly obtuse here if you really don't see how, for example, bringing in tuition fees in for England and Wales on the back of Scottish MPs, whose constituents aren't really affected by it, is a distortion. Yes, there may be some tiny ripple effects on things like the Barnett formula, but then it's that formula that needs to be readdressed. It's a travesty of a formula anyway, seeing that it gives Scotland far more money than other needy parts of the UK, like Wales and Cornwall.
    Usual bollocks from you then, we should be subject to English MP's deciding our budget. Current process is just bare faced robbery. If people are not sensible enough to vote YES then idiots like you will get their way and we will get robbed even more. Dick Turpin had nothing on you lot.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,241

    Mr. Carnyx, pish, tosh, balderdash and piffle!

    Englishmen are charged to go to Scottish universities, whereas Frenchmen and Germans are not. This occurs because of Scottish votes cast on a matter which did not affect Scotland (and the vile SNP want to maintain this anti-English approach even if independence is achieved).

    MD, absolute and utter anti - Scottish bollocks , Scottish students are charged to go to English universities, there are none so blind as those who will not see. Vile UK nationalists penalise Scottish students and demand we give them a free education out of the miserly budget we get allocated out of our revenue, get a grip on reality.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,685



    The 75% laws made in Brussels figure is simply spin from the party that told us that 29m Romanians & Bulgarians were about to arrive.

    I don't have a brief to defend UKIPs press releases, but I don't think they actually said that did they? I believe that they said this was the figure that would be entitled to come, which is true. It certainly has a good deal more basis in fact than the utterly bogus '3 million jobs' figure which is continually trotted out by Europhiles despite being long disavowed by its own author.

    I used the Viviane Reding number as a conservative estimate in fact.
    http://www.ukip.org/the_truth_is_out_at_least_75_of_our_laws_are_made_by_eu_institutions_says_senior_european_commissioner_viviane_reding

    I believe that if such a thing can be put into a percentage, it must be far higher -the good Comissioner's figure obviously excludes things like purchasing empty aircraft carriers, preventing reservoir development in the South East, and spending 50 billion on HS2 -all brilliant 'home grown' wheezes that just so happen to conform to the loonier long term goals of the EU. To me it's obvious that the EU is so deeply embedded in our polity that I cannot see how any legislation could be untouched.



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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,685
    malcolmg said:



    Yes and going to EU via London is doing us a world of good, we get crapped on every time , if anything decent it is stolen by London , any crap is passed straight through. The UK is a few mere regions in the UK at present despite your imagination that it is "something special". Your pathetic dribbling is reprehensible.

    Well I tend to agree with you there; I don't think you do benefit a lot from being part of the UK when it comes to European law (mainly because UK Governments in spite of their rhetoric make zero effort to curb the excesses of the EU). The issue with independence as I see it is that you will incur all the start up costs (and you can't deny to yourself that these will be huge) of a brand new country, with no genuine increase in freedom.

This discussion has been closed.